Preview of the week starting 15Aug22 - Will both Walmart and Sea Limited continue their recovery?
Public Hoildays (SG, Hong Kong, China & USA)NilEarnings CalendarEarnings Calendar for the week starting 15 Aug 2022WalmartIn the one last year, Walmart has fallen by 11.58%. It hit the recent 52-week low of 117.27 after reaching the high of 160.77.The forecast for the coming earnings is 1.63 and 150.93B for its EPS and Revenue respectively. Will Walmart continue to recover despite inventory challenges (overstock) recently.SEA LimitedSea has fallen over 71% from a year ago. Though it is away from the 52-week low of 54.06, it remains a long distance from the 52-week high of 372.70.The forecast for the coming earnings is -1.14 and 2.99B for its EPS and Revenue respectively. Will Sea Limited be able to continue its recovery? Personally, I will prefer for Sea Limited to enter into profits before willing to invest into the company.Economic CalendarEconomic Calendar for the week starting 15 Aug 2022FollowingChina's Industrial Production (YoY)falling to 3.8% from the forecast of 4.6%, we see more slowing down in China than expected. The lockdown situation in China seems to be improving with Shanghai schools set to be opened from 1st September 2022 barring any Covid outbreaks. With China being the world's factory, if the production trends downwards, it is not a good sign for the global economy in general.Crude Oil Inventoriesare an important (forward-looking) indication. Oil needs to be bought, delivered, refined and shipped out to the manufacturers before it can be turned into products like plastic that easily surround us. Thus, if the oil inventory demand is "weak" (seen by having a lesser than expected drawdown of the crude oil inventories), this can lead to a further drop in oil prices. However, this also implies that the oil producers are seeing a lesser demand for oil in the coming months by both manufacturers and consumers. Such demand drop can lead to a recessionary cycle.Retail Sales (MoM) for Julyis also a good indicator of the recovery of the market as we try to live with Covid.Initial jobs claimsare the other key data as the Fed needs to incorporate this into their interest rate adjustments. The next FOMC interest rate announcement will only take place in September. They will be looking at a few more such updates before finalising their interest rate adjustment.News and my MuseMy muse: to beat Tesla, you need more than a better car. You need a better factory.News - 61% of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck - what should one prepare for potentially tough times?EU expects a lesser harvest in lieu of the climateDrought affects Europe's crop yield.PPI is down 0.5% MoM and initial jobless claims (262K) are lesser than the forecast of 263K.BYD contributes 32.7% of China's NEV sales in JulySAIC-GM-Wuling had an 8.3% share of China's NEV retail sales in July, NIO at 2.1% & Tesla China at 1.7%. BYD achieves zero carbon emissions at Shenzhen headquartersCONSUMER PRICE INDEX - JULY 2022The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5% before seasonal adjustment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsCNBC reported thatt grain shortage is expected to last into next year.China starts autonomous self-driving taxi with Baidu,Market outlookS&P500 1D chart dated 15 Aug 2022 (SGT)From the 1D chart above, we have the following observation:The stochastics indicator is ranging. S&P500 can range in stochastic and continue to climb as per the previous trends. However, it is also in the overbought region and the market may peak soon.The MACD indicator is still on the uptrend and thus, we can expect the uptrend to continue.EMA lines are in an up trend and spread out - thus, the uptrend is likely to continue and be strong.The moving average (MA) lines of 50 & 200 are providing the following signals. MA50 is on an uptrend (mid-term) and MA200 is on a downtrend (longer term). With the candles above MA50, it should remain bullish in the short term.My considerations:with inflation remaining at 8.5%, it remains elevated though we should see some relief due to falling fuel costs. It is important to monitor if there is any demand erosion. From the manufacturers and oil producers, there are possibilities of a decline coming up as explained earlier.Weather > Europe's agriculture looks to be challenged and the USA's coming crop yield may be affected with the floods, droughts, fire and heat waves. We need to monitor closely.Fertilizer - with the Russian sanctions, the world needs to find alternatives for 40% of the world's fertilizer from Russia.Elevated housing and rental costs are inflationary in nature.More failings of crypto firmsExpecting the rest of the earnings to be "less" hopeful.With the coming winter, the gas situation in Europe needs to be worked out as they remained hostage to Russia.There are few global hotspots with tension, wars and rumours of wars - Taiwan, Israel, Armenia, etcWhile the market can be irrational longer than we can remain solvent, I continue to remain cautious about the market in lieu of the above reasons. I hope that I am wrong but I still think that we have more trying times ahead.$Wal-Mart(WMT)$$Sea Ltd(SE)$@TigerStars
Fed minutes show more upcoming rate hikes, but pace could slow!
How is it going to affect our local banks??$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$ $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ $UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$ If you were to look at their earning reports, these banks derive their earnings from 1. Net interest income (DBS - 64%, UOB - 70.1%, OCBC - 58% of total income)2. Net fee & commission income (downtrend for all 3 banks)3. Other non-interest income (downtrend for all 3 banks) Although the other 2 categories is on a gradual downtrend due to poor macro-environment, the net interest income which forms the bulk earnings of 3 local banks has been increasing! The net interest income comprises of customer loan, interbank balances and securities. Customer loans include home loans, business loans, car loans, personal loans, education loans etc. Which country do these banks generate most net profit from?? That's right! Singapore!! DBS generates 71.8% income from Singapore UOB generates 63% income from SingaporeOCBC generates 47% income from SingaporeAs Singapore generally follows the US interest rates, we can expect to see higher interest rates for the different loans provided by all 3 local banks! Are u bullish on our local banks?? Do let me know your thoughts! @Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger
I believe that the conflicts between China and Western countries will continue and even intensify in the next few years. The main reason why the world will become more turbulent is China. Do not misunderstand! This is definitely not because China has done anything wrong, but because of the upgrading of China's industry, the sharp edge of competitiveness is directly inserted into the traditional advantageous territory of the West, which is an inevitable result. Anyone who has experienced real market competition can understand that peers are enemies. Competition is so cruel, it's a matter of money and jobs, which is not much less than the revenge of killing the father. Democracy and human rights are all pretense. The reason for the intensification of the conflict between China and the West is that China’s industrial upgrading has reached the point of grabbing the jobs of the West. In the 1990s, what China did were things that Westerners didn't do, for example a cheap labour who entered the city, helping the city people sweep the streets, and being a nanny for the city people. Of course, there is no conflict between the people in the city in this case, and the relationship is quite harmonious. However, when this man who entered the city began to attend night school, he also acquired the culture and technology, and began to compete with the urbanites to apply for a white-collar job, it was strange that the relationship would still be harmonious. Let’s talk about Europeans. It’s been more than a hundred years since they lived comfortably. With some of their technical and industrial advantages they can comfortably become the rentier class. China’s rise will share the West’s cake. China’s impact is by no means comparable to the rise of Japan and South Korea. China's population is 10 times that of Japan, and its industry is comprehensive. It is not normal for the West not to rise up and try to contain such an opponent. Now it is not a question of whether the West will contain China, but how to contain it and whether it can be contained. For at least the next 10 years, the conflict between China and the West will not weaken, and the world will not be peaceful. See who is strong, see who has a hard fist.$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ $WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$ $Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$
$Alibaba(09988)$ I have my utmost respect for Ray Dalio for his wisdom and knowledge. However his decision to sell Alibaba doesn't deviate or influence my own research and conviction on Alibaba. When one invest in a stock, it would be useful to write down his/her own reasons (at least 3) for investing into that business. The same apply to exiting an investment.If there is no fundamental change in the business, there is no reason to exit the business unless you need to raise cash to redeploy them into another equally great business that you like. I believe many had given up on chinese stocks not because of fundamental but rather due to political concerns influencing their bottomline. This reason sounds valid however if I'm looking from CCP point of view, why would the government kill off their golden goose? Does killing their number 1 e-commerce cum cloud computing cum fintech comgomolate in their country make any logical sense? Don't forget, the locals are still using their products daily. Even I staying in Singapore is a frequent customer, that says a lot 😉. After all these headwinds, this company is still growing albeit at a slower pace. Once the censure are lifted, it can only be the highway. From the chart, we are closer to the bottom than the top. That sums up my thoughts on Alibaba. As always, your reason for buying or selling a stock should not be influenced by other people's opinion.
$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ BBBY, with 90% institutional ownership that attempted to divert retail investors' attention away from AMC and GME, failed to do so like they have failed w many other distractions. Ryan Cohen pulled the rug on the HFs, who were hoping to capitalize with calls and a "squeeze" on BBBY. RC with a gold chess move. Meanwhile Apes have been buying more on these dips. Holdin strong 👏✊
$Vinco Ventures, Inc.(BBIG)$ Susquehanna (the dirty handed market maker) has closed out their position (see 2nd pic). It is down 150B Quarter to Quarter (pic 3). Things are looking brighter than before! [Cool]
July CPI was released yesterday.It rose 8.5% year-on-year in July, better than the market expectation of 8.7% and down from 9.1% last month.Core CPI was 5.9%, beated the expectations of 6.1%.How do CPI segments move?The fall in inflation was mainly affected by declining energy prices, especially oil prices.According to the data,the retail price of gasoline has continued to fall since July, driving the CPI's gasoline price down 7.7% YoY, the largest decline since April 2020.The food price index rose 1.1% in July from a year earlier, and housing costs remained high. Declines in used car prices offset increases in food and rent prices.Different Responses To The Same 8.5%: March vs JulyAlthough July's CPI data only returned to March's level, the market reaction was very different from March's.The March CPI - 8.5% yoy- was higher than expectation and recorded the highest growth rate in nearly four decades.The three major stock indexes fell for two days, hitting a three-week low.And yesterday after the release of July CPI data, the three major indices jumped 2%, hitting a new three-month high since May 4.Among them, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose from a low of 10,565 to 12,854, up 20%, entering a technical bull market.Mixed Rate Hike ExpectationsStephen Hoedt, managing director at equity and fixed income research at Key Private Bank, said in an interview:"A number of components that people have been flagging as being potentially problematic and keeping inflation persistent at high levels, started to show some easing.""I really do think that that opens the possibility to the Fed considering 50 basis point hikes instead of 75.However, Neel Kashkari, President of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis said on Wednesday that:The Fed is "far, far away from declaring victory" on inflationthe U.S. central bank will need to raise its policy rate another 1.5 percentage points this year and more in 2023, even if that causes a recession.At present, July CPI of 8.5% is still at a high level.Although most analysts believe that they have not yet seen substantial evidence of lower inflation, but the market has begun the rally.Is the market too optimistic about inflation/rate hike?Do you think US stocks will start a new stage - entering a bull market?3 Indices surge - will you chase the high or just watch?Join our topic and post to win hundreds of tiger coins~Event Detail: Enter our topic and post with more than 500 characters, you will get a chance to be picked or rewarded with tiger coins~Tag your friends and join the activity together~
$MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ ...gives a yield of 9%+, with a dozen of Grade A offices in US gateway cities.Though physically people are yet to come back to office, its occupancy of the properties is close to 90% with a long WALE of 5 years.Rental reversion has become positivethough it is experiencing some tenantmovements. Gearing of 42.4% is at the high side though most (85.7%) is hedged to fixed rates. So no big expansion of portfolio is expected for this moment.The unit price is at historic lows. Is it a buy? I think yes. Getting dividend payout while sitting out the waiting game of the down period. That's what properties can do best.
$Apple(AAPL)$ BullishBullish Apple 's share price has been trending upwards this week as investors are more optimistic in the light of the recent drop of inflation to 8.5 %.Even though Apple reported an almost 11% decline in profit after supply constraints and shutdowns in China, iPhone sales continue to grow and remain resilient.According to Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, "We are seeing some pockets of softness here and there but in the aggregate, we expect revenue to accelerate in the September quarter as compared to June, year on year performance."I am bullish on Apple as it is a quality stock with a wide moat and ticks all the core fundamentals. It is certainly profitable, has a solid balance sheet and an excellent management team. $Apple(AAPL)$ is certainly the Apple of my eye.@Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger
$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ $Keppel Corporation Limited(KPELF)$ This's are the trades I did buy during covid In addition to the rise I also enjoyed the dividends and sometimes I do not take dividend and change to more. Shares . @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @TigerEvents do feature to encourage more people to buy more
Few mth ago i started to buy more $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ using tiger cause lower brokerage Bullishand i was ok, no more fear of lossing few hundreds. The other day had high tea with a good friend, she said to me don't anyhow buy, buy only blue chips especially when it dip, when market pick up, all will go up
Meme stock mania is back with a vengeance and leading the charge is Bed, Bath & Beyond, whose stock is up about 360% this month while GameStop is up 19% and AMC is up 47%. To put this into context, the S&P500 is only up 3.5% so far in August and has rallied almost 17% from its lows in June.Of all the meme stocks, I like AMC best led by CEO, Adam Aron aka "Silverback" to his loyal fans aka "Apes" or Ape Nation.Adam Aron recently announced that"It is time for us to take decisive and even valorous action".By this he meant that AMC is giving a special stock dividend, effectively serving as a stock split. Adam Aron called this special dividend "AMC Preferred Equity" or APE for short. APE dividend would give AMC an option to raise more cash in future.AMC's revenues rose 162.3% year over year to USD 1.17 billion for 2Q22. However AMC still have USD 121.6 million in GAAP losses. Total cash flow was USD1. 176 billion.On August 22, AMC common stock would be cut in half as it gets split into APE shares on a 1 for 1 basis as a dividend to existing shareholders. Ex dividend date is 19 August.This can possibly trigger a buying mania by the investors especially the Apes, the loyal band of AMC fans.Adam Aron is also offering a "token of appreciation" to his shareholders to celebrate the new APEs. This freebie is "I Own APE" NFT featuring a gold coin, emblazoned with the words "I OWN APE" behind a golden velvet rope. How nice. 😍😍😍So $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ shares may take off to the moon in the light of this latest development and spark off the next meme stock mania. @Tiger_chat @TigerStars @CaptainTiger
I profit from both speculation and value investing during Rally but also lose on both during Bear market. I believe in setting aside sufficient funds in CPF for retirement before putting money into stock market. I also believe in putting 75 to 80% into dividend making stocks. The balance (Fun Money) into speculative stocks to spice up life! We only live once. I don't see anything wrong in Speculative Play so long we set aside a portion to more secure investments. During my journey in Speculative play, i am surprised to meet quite a handful of "kind" people trying to educate me on how to manage my funds. Frowned upon me when i told them i like $GameStop(GME)$ $Vinco Ventures, Inc.(BBIG)$ type of risky stocks. Even after nicely tell them to leave me alone. I still get judgemental comment telling me my way is "incorrect". I wish sincerely people can respect one another for their choices. Who knows who will get the last laugh? 🤣
$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF(SPYD)$ High inflation can erode purchasing power over time. SPYD ETF can provide a hedge against inflation by generating a rising income stream and still appreciate in capital growth. $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF(SPYD)$ offers a no nonsense ETF approach to capture high yields and dividend growth in the US large cap space within the S&P500 universe. This ETF ranks all dividend payers by indicated yield and selects the top 80 stocks. SPYD equally weights its portfolio.The Top 10 holdings include Edison International, Franklin Resources, Public Services Enterprise, Chevron Corporation, Dominion Energy, Southern Company, Entergy Corp, Pinnacle West Capital, 3M Company and Principal Financial Group. Total Top 10 Weightage is 13%The SPYD ETF highest yielding stocks are equally stock weighted but benefit from being overweight in sectors such as banks and Financials, real estate, materials, oil and gas. Banks and Financials benefit from rising interest rates. Real Estate is an inflation hedge sector. Energy and materials industries benefit from rising prices and demand. Expense ratio is 0.07%Dividends are paid quarterly. The current dividend yield is 3.82%. The next ex dividend date is 16 September 2022.Performance at 1 year is up 7.29%.$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF(SPYD)$ is diversified and minimises your risk on single stocks. It is a low cost but effective way to enjoy a dividend income which is a hedge against high inflation. @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger
Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytan If you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.$Block(SQ)$ (Requested by @WendyDelia) Price has recently took liquidity at 90.99 and is unable to close higher. Price was on an uptrend and broke the market structure to the downside yesterday. We have sell-side liquidity built below and I'm expecting price to at least retrace back to the bullish POI at 76.44 from here.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SQ/IvNIT80G-SQ-Analysis/$DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ (Requested by @WendyDelia) Price has recently invalidated the bullish POI at 71.99. Right now we have a liquidity grab at 66.63. From here, I'm expecting price to continue going down a little to mitigate the bullish POI at 64.71 and see an up move from there.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DASH/uoeX0cu6-DASH-Analysis/$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ No changes from previous weeks. Price is currently on an accumulation Wyckoff schematic. Price mitigated the bearish POI at 34.46 and is on a downtrend. I'm expecting price to go lower, taking liquidity at 18.01 to form a spring.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XPEV/PmfnWf3l-XPEV-Analysis/Let me know if you agree and what you think. Like, share, and comment if you're holding any one of these companies! Let me know if you have any tickers you want me to analyze. Do check me out on other social platforms too!@CaptainTiger@TigerStars@MillionaireTiger
Fortunes are made and lost on meme stocks. $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ is the latest meme stock to hit the markets. It has gone up 530% in a short space of time but today its share price fell 21% on news that Ryan Cohen, its 2nd largest investor has reported to SEC that he is selling his 7.78 million shares including call options.It seems like the air from the inflated balloon that is $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ has suddenly escaped and the balloon may pop at anytime.Ryan Cohen must be making a fortune from his punt on $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ and laughing all the way to the bank.My advice to would be investors especially new ones is to stay away unless you want to be burnt. @Tiger_chat @TigerStars
Musk Sells $6.9B of Tesla: Will you hold, buy or sell?
On Tuesday evening, according to documents released by Tesla, Elon Musk sold 7.92 million shares of Tesla stock, worth about $6.88 billion.Join the discussion here >>Musk just made a big pie about "buying back shares" at the shareholder meeting shortly after ......According to the documents, the transaction took place between August 5 and 9. And $Tesla (TSLA)$ just held its 2022 annual meeting of shareholders in Austin, Texas, on August 4.Musk was also asked how Tesla plans to use its capital in coming years. He said Tesla will primarily increase its capital expenditures and research and development spending “as fast as we can do so without wasting it.” He added that “a sort of share buyback is possible,” depending on what Tesla’s future cash flow looks like. He “wouldn’t want to commit” to Tesla share buybacks just yet, and that a force majeure event somewhere could change the equation. However, he reiterated that if Tesla’s future cashflow is looking solid, and the world is “relatively stable,” then a “share buyback is on the table.”In April this year, after the announcement of the acquisition of Twitter, Musk sold a total of 4.4 million shares of Tesla stock, worth about $4 billion, through a series of transactions from April 26 to April 27, when he also vowed to announce on Twitter: "No further TSLA sales planned after today"Cash out in case the deal to buy Twitter is forced to be executedIn July, Musk announced the suspension of the acquisition of Twitter because $Twitter (TWTR)$ failed to provide him with all information in a timely manner, and on July 12, Twitter filed a lawsuit against Musk for performance at the promised price.So according to Musk, the sale, mainly because he needed the cash in case the deal to buy Twitter was forced to be executed and some equity partners did not reach an agreement, so it was important to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla shares. Musk has reportedly sold about $32 billion worth of Tesla stock in the past 10 months, and Tesla stock has fallen about 20% during the year.CEO of TrueMark Investments has said before that Musk could sell Tesla shares regardless of how the Twitter deal ends up.A user on Twitter asked Musk if he would buy Tesla stock again if the Twitter deal was cancelled, and Musk replied, "Yes."[Topic]Musk Sells $6.9B of Tesla: Will you hold, buy or sell?[Rewards]1. Tigers will be given50-200 coins randomly according to the post's quality and users' interaction2. Tigers with the most high-quality posts will be given 500 coins each(NOTES: Comments made under this article WILL NOT be counted)Enter the Topic Page to make a post & win Tiger coins as rewards >>
Market risk on momentum is back with inflation expectations starting to peak, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July came in softer at 8.5%, Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed a decrease by 0.5% MoM. This is in line with our expectations that inflation will began to ease in the 2H22 which also implies more policy maneuverability of the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meetings. This helped to drive a sharp reversal in risk assets with Nasdaq recovering by 12.4% and S&P also gaining 9.3% over the last month.While the absolute inflation print still looks high and some would argue that we are in a bear market rally, a more docile inflation expectation and investors remaining cash up on the sidelines after year-to-date drawdown could mean that equity markets volatilities could ease further.Oil price is one that is being watched closely, having been trending downwards to $93.8/barrel, below year-highs, and could be moving towards surplus levels soon in the current quarter according to OPEC. This could bring about further alleviation to inflation expectations.$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$ results showed the tourism sector normalizing with room nights surpassing pre-pandemic levels in 2Q22.Rooms nights surged by 56% YoY and gross bookings were above expectations during the quarter. This was despite the fears that inflation and geopolitical risks would curtail discretionary travel demand. Alternative accommodation, a sector where $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ operates, is one that Booking is also actively seeking to compete in, with 6.6m listings available on Booking.com.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ is expected to report on 16 August key concerns centering on foreign currency exchange with a strengthening dollar. E-commerce revenue, while still a pillar of sales growth for the company, will be a segment keenly watched, especially with a challenging YoY comparable and potential headwind from inflationary impacts faced regionally. Ecommerce’s path to profitability is a balancing game of expansion of new geographies versus improving unit economics of others. Gaming is expected to continue to be dragged by Free Fire’s ban in India and a shift in consumer trends post pandemic. $Sanofi SA(SNY)$ , $GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$ and $Haleon(HLN)$continue to decline on pressures of a potential personal-injury litigation of the heartburn drug Zantac that is alleged to cause cancer. $Pfizer(PFE)$ which marketed Zantac for a limited period (but has stopped for more than 15 years) also saw weakness in its share price for being implicated. While uncertainty of the litigation settlements stands, the aggregated financial impact could potentially run into the tens of billions.