To The Moon

$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ has fluctuated up and down by as much as 30% and 50% respectively in recent days.It declined more than 20% because....1) Institutions downgrade $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ 's ratingMoody's has re-evaluated FRC and other banks' credit situations, but S&P and Fitch downgraded FRC's rating, citing liquidity risk due to the bank's primary clients being wealthy West Coast residents with a lot of uninsured deposits.Additionally, Fitch noted that 61% of FRC's investment portfolio consists of long-term municipal bondsthat may not be able to help the bank cope with potential liquidity risks.2) It's rumored that&n

$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ was rescued by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Friday, with a new bank set up to hold and guarantee deposits up to US$250,000 held at the bank.On Sunday, crypto bank $Signature Bank(SBNY)$ was also closed down due to what was said by the regulator to be a risk of systemic bank failure.All Signature's depositors will be "made whole",  "​​As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer,” said by the FDIC.$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ is said to have deposits/assets of anywhere between US$120bn and US$200bn.  $Sign

【Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang On How His Big Bet On A.I. Is Finally Paying Off】Ahead of this year’s Nvidia GTC developer conference, CNBC sat down with founder and CEO Jensen Huang to talk about ChatGPT, gaming, the omniverse, and what’s next. In this full interview, Huang takes us on the journey of Nvidia, from its early days in a condo to the dominant player in GPUs, gaming, and now A, which is a major focus of GTC this year. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

策略的獲利觀點 －提升策略價值IV 來自合約定價的推想，HV 是股價真正的震盪強度。IV 反應市場情緒的火熱程度，HV 冰冷的訴說已經發生的悲歡離合。IV 是入場點的參考，HV 是策略獲利模型真正的基石！只要知道每日的股價變化，就能知道真正的變動率，這就是歷史波動 (HV)。IV 稍微參考了 HV ，然後或上或下加減乘除亂猜一通。波動的公式就是算出每日股價變化程度的標準差，沒有什麼祕密。用波動率倒推股價變動就有意思了！這邊我就提一個有名的 『16 法則』，Rule of 16。上週功課的部份，就先說到這，剩下能討論的大概還能開十個單章，就留給各位同學繼續研究，我們繼續講『降落傘』策略的獲利觀點。同學有問題Q第五講發表後有同學在某論壇提了個問題，問說我們如果一開始就買 $80 的 股票，然後買 $100 的 Put，不就保證了零虧損嗎？提出這個想法的同學很聰明，這種零虧損模式的構思的確很簡單，但就跟股票買低賣高的觀點一樣，實做起來無比困難！這裡主要的難點只有一個：這世上 99.9999% 的人都無法在誤差範圍 0.05% 內預測某時間點的股價當股價 $100 時，兩年後到期 $100 Put 訂價可能約 $20當股價 📉 跌至 $80 時，同樣的 Put 價格可能就變成 $35此時甚至還無法保證跌到 $80 就已經是底部，天知道隔天還會不會再跌 10%！即便真的能正確預測趨勢、抄底成功， 在 $80 買入後股價一路飆升，股價漲回到 $100 時還不如直接賣掉股票賺利差，何必還要再買 Put？！其實策略上的確有嘗試摸底的操作方式，也可以透過先買/賣 Put 入場做風險控制，降落傘也可以跟類似的操作結合，但這都是進階操作，建議同學們先把基礎打好，先確定能夠複製大師成就，進階的部份等我們以後再說囉！提升策略價值現在讓我們再從另一個角度去看策略獲利，本篇要提到的觀點是『價值提升』。前

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ Price playing out nicely from my last analysis, with price doing a bullish retracement back into the bearish POI at 102.70. I'm expecting the bearish POI to be mitigated and price to continue with the bearish order flow. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Price did not play out according to my analysis last week. Price is still well within the bearish POI at 4078.49 and if price invalidates this area, we could potentially see price rally to the bearish POI at 4201.41. If not, price will continue with the bearish order flow. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Price has broken market structure to the upside. I'm expecting price to do a bearish retracement into the bullish

Apple has most made a good gain in 2023, gaining 27.35% year-to-date. On Tuesday March 21, it gained another 1.19%, together with most other big name tech stocks as banking industry woes shook the markets. The next swing high resistance level would likely be $165, where on Sep 12 last year it made an upthrust after distribution before selling off, forming a bull trap pattern. If it can close strongly above the $165 level, this stock might be able to go back to all-time-highs.  But... it also depends on the Fed path of remaining rate hikes. SPX above 200 MA but still below 50Ma The S&P 500 made a good gain on Tuesday as the FOMC meeting began. It closed strongly above the 200 daily moving average, but remains below the 50 daily moving average. Initially, traders an

U.S. Traveler Spending Abroad Reached Nearly $16 Billion in January 2023, a New High.Almost one third (31%) of travelers said that they intend to spend more on travel this year than they did in 2022, according to arecent reportfrom the World Travel and Tourism Council and booking site Trip.com.$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ earnings surge as foreign travel rebounds. The company has recorded its first full year of profitability thanks to higher prices and a global travel rebound.Outbound travel from the Asia-Pacific region showed the strongest growth globally.Travel stocks spread across industries such as hotels, booking sites, airline services, short-term rentals, amusement parks, and sustainable tourism.Below are&nb

The Fed has rapidly raised interest rates over the past year in a bid to beat back inflation, at a pace not seen since the 1980s😓😓😓 The rapid rise in rates after years of cheap money is rippling through global markets & the banking sector ➡️ Guess this is the “expected 🔪PAIN🔪” that Powell has been talking about❓ Things have quickly turned & escalated since Powell’s testimonial on 8/3, just 13 days ago. As someone who follows the market closely, it sure felt way longer than 2 weeks so many events & volatility in the market everyday😅 🚨 With the 🇺🇸 & European 🏦🏦🏦 crisis wreaking havoc in global markets, some financial industry executives are calling on the Fed to pause its monetary policy tightening for now but be ready to resume raising rates later. However, would Fed really

Like to thank Tiger for awarding the weekly top prediction for SPY. It's an honor and a privilege to winning this reward for the fifth time since Feb 2023. I'll do my best to share how to trade SPY profitably in the coming week again. The US government will almost certainly step in to bail out the financial sector even if it did collapse. This serves as the final backstop against a worst-case scenario. In truth, there are a lot of issues going on in the global economy and America is doing okay only because the US Dollar and US debt is still viewed as safe-haven assets. This will remain true for a while, and it is in America’s best interest to maintain economic and financial stability so the world can continue to trust in American assets. S&P 500 is flirti

Asia-Pacific markets fell on 20/3 (Mon) after UBS agreed to buy its banking rival Credit Suisse in a $3.25 billion takeover over the weekend. 🐻🐻🐻 The HSI led losses in the region, falling 2.65% to close at 19,000.71 points🔥🔥 🐻 The SSE & SZSE closed down 0.48% & 0.27% respectively. This is despite the 👍📰 from 🇨🇳 leaving its 1-year & 5-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.65% & 4.3% respectively. 🐻🐻 The ASX 200 fell 1.38% to close at 6,898.500 points🔥 🐻🐻 The STI closed down 1.48% with the the 🇸🇬🏦🏦🏦 in the red🩸 Investors’ favourites Singapore Exchange Maxi-Cash were not spared either. At about 12.30pm today, MAS released a what I view as an “emergency” statement to call Singaporeans to “Calm Down” but as usual we kiasu & kiasi so sell first😅  🔎🔎🔎MAS Statement In-

3915 vs 4080 The markets are on the edge now no thanks to the banks which are showing signs of buckling under the stress of monetary tightening. US regional banks kicked off the spiral before a mega name in the form of Credit Suisse sent out an SOS and now as we all know, over the weekend had UBS buy them out in the biggest bank rescue since decades ago when the great recession hit markets real hard. There are echoes of that now and what is more worrying is the fact that inflation is still not well controlledyet.  We have heard arguments by some that this might actually help tame inflation. Fair enough. But that is still a far shot and the FOMC really has some head scratching decisions to make. Continue the course till inflation really subsides or sl

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  16% profit from taking calls. ⚠️ Looking at calls above 399.4 and puts below 397.4 on Wednesday. Market likely to be muted before FOMC rates hike. Please stay away if you can't take the volatility during the announcement. Can always wait for the market reactions before taking any trades after the speech and interview. 🚨 Please SIZE DOWN, Do Not FOMO and Lose Money - better to stay away! 🙏 SPY Technical Analysis: Testing Key Resistance Ahead Of FOMC The chart attached shows price action filled and broke the upper channel trendline from my SPY post yesterday (Please refer to that strategy highlighted). It's now retesting that trendline

There were two events in March that reversed financial markets. Not non-farm and CPI, but the cascading effects of Silicon Valley bank failures and Chatgpt-4.The former affects the liquidity of the capital market, while the latter is a technological revolution that reverses the valuation of the AI industry at a stroke. From a value investing perspective, I think the latter is more far-reaching.Anyway, after these two things happened, I really want to see if those big orders are still holding positions.In the article "Show the cards! Market trends prior to March 24：bearish！", Apple, Google and Amazon all closed their sell calls due on March 24th; The sell call of Tesla's 210 strike price has not been closed, and is now making

I'm not good at analyzing bank assets, so let's analyze big option orders.On Thursday, the main explosion was in these sectors: banking, securities, insurance and real estate, as well as some loss-making emerging industries such as offline medical and new drug development companies.Before we had fully reacted to the event, several companies were bought with put options. Keeping an eye on whether these options are closed and rolled will help gauge how things are going.The reason why we did not choose the big four banks is that the direction of trading is confused.$American International Group Inc(AIG)$ A $10 billion insurance company. The 52.5 put was opened on February 2, and it's possible that the big man was one of the first to plot the collapse