badumdum
2021-12-21

A lot of new investors are just learning about the flow of money, liquidity and the Federal Reserve. It is important to grasp the macro view. 


This will give you perspective and make you grounded in some level of fundamentals. In this place, you can avoid painful errors sold to you by "analysts" and moonboys. Remember, doesn't mean some big bank analyst comes in with some analysis and tells you a target price that sounds pretty and nice means you must follow. Always dig deeper. Where is the macro environment now and does it support that "bull case" thesis? 

For example, the Guggenheim $TSLA bull case PT is $1,963, bear case PT is $350, and fair value PT is $924. This sounds really wide by a huge shot. But you will need to ask - what happens once liquidity is followed retracted? What probability will we get to a bull case, in that short term as long as the Fed tapers? What about competition that will have time to catch up? We need to be more critical in our personal analysis. 


The reality now is not Omicron but Fed tapering. Has and always will be. Historical evidence supports this. Using this, discount what the analysts are giving you. You will soon see all those "buying the dip" will have done better in holding back and letting the price of their favorite stocks sit on a firm footing first as the indices roll over. In this environment, FOMO will be your downfall   

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment（4）

  • Top
  • Latest
  • kooko
    ·2021-12-27
    With interest rate hikes due to start next year, growth stocks are likely to continue to fall, and valuations will undoubtedly continue to fall
    Reply
    Report
  • Heartbeat12
    ·2021-12-27
    An investment bank's target price is often subject to many factors, and its ultimate realization is uncertain
    Reply
    Report
  • River0
    ·2021-12-27
    The impact of liquidity on share prices is so great that higher interest rates could be the start of a nightmare for many stocks
    Reply
    Report
  • ongkianlee
    ·2021-12-21
    nice
    Reply
    Report