To The Moon

The US added only 199,000 non-agricultural jobs in December, much lower than the expected 450,000. However, the unemployment rate fell further to 3.9% during the same period, which was better than the expected 4.1%; the average hourly wage also saw monthly It increased by 0.6%, which was also higher than the market expectation of 0.4%. After the data was released, the US bond yield further rose, and the 10-year long-term bond once exceeded the 1.8% level (the water still closed at 1.76%), and the three major US stock indexes also continued to be biased. Soft. The Dow once fell 124 points at most, and it still closed down 4 points at 36231 points; the benchmark index fell 19 points to 4677 points; the Nasdaq continued to underperform, falling 144 points throughout the day to 14935 points.

The number of new non-agricultural jobs for two consecutive months has been significantly lower than market expectations, reflecting that the epidemic still affects companies' views on former companies. However, the continuous fall in the unemployment rate and the rise in wages have further increased concerns about water collection. The fall in the unemployment rate is just in line with the The Fed's interest rate hike conditions to maximize employment; and rising wages are also one of the important sources of inflation:

Wages rise -> consumption levels rise -> prices rise -> further rises in wages (under the premise of low unemployment)

The continued rise in interest rates will directly drag down the valuation of the stock market. Especially for technology companies that are asset-light and focus on profit prospects, interest rate hikes have a greater impact on their valuations (due to an increase in the discount rate, the present value decreases ), causing the Nasdaq to underperform the market for several days. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate has risen above the high level in March last year (short-term bond interest rates under 10-year maturity have risen more significantly), while 20 There is still a gap between the 10-year and 30-year bonds, reflecting the market's belief that the Fed's water collection action is imminent (but due to uncertain economic growth, the 20-year and 30-year bond interest rates have risen slightly). As said in the past week, it is still difficult for the index to reverse the decline for the time being when the bond interest rate has not fallen.