Fed is likely to Raise by 75bps, SPX Short-term Reverse Needed?

Fed is likely to raise by 75bps? SPX short-term sees the reverse need?, Dollar will continue to be strong.

The Federal Reserve will start an interest rate meeting this Sept 21st. According to the general market forecast, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Once raised by 75 basis points, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate will be raised to more than 3%. There is not much room for interest future hike.

Now the highest expectation for the Fed to raise interest rates is 4.4%, which means that after this interest rate hike, the Fed may have 2 to 3 interest rate hikes to end this round of interest rate hikes.

Fed target rate probabilities chart as of Sep. 19, 2022. Source: CME Group

Of course, it also depends on changes in US inflation and economic growth and employment data. If U.S. inflation can be brought under control relatively quickly, the Fed may reduce the number of interest rate hikes.

On the other hand, if U.S. inflation remains high, the Fed may continue to raise interest rates, so it depends on the specific inflation data. The U.S. dollar index continued to rise as the Fed raised interest rates, leading to a depreciation of non-U.S. currencies.

When will the dollar peak?

I think there are several factors that could lead to a reversal of the dollar rally.

First, the Fed's policy stance has eased. The movement of the US dollar in recent months, especially against the G10 currencies, is closely related to the level of US interest rates. If core U.S. inflation slows further in the coming months, it could spark speculation about a future Fed policy shift.

Second, global economic growth has bottomed out. While we believe that the global economic outlook is likely to continue to be revised downward, if pressures on energy prices ease and/or if fiscal stimulus in various countries is more effective, economic forward-looking indicators outside the United States may pick up, which may affect the strength of the dollar.

For now, the dollar tends to benefit when global growth is under pressure and the growth prospects of America's major trading partners, such as Europe, are bleak.

Seems the dollar may rise further in the near term, and it will remain strong for some time.

Regarding stocks market. What's you plan? Continue to short or wait for opportunities?

Do you believe there would be a short reverse if the 75bps being priced in. Other wise 100bps hike would cause a big drop.

Perhaps the before the last round of bear market drop, there need a reverse. How do you think so?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ ,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ .

# US Stocks Opportunities

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment405

  • Top
  • Latest
  • PRO AMD
    ·2022-09-21
    please go back to bull
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • THB
      Yeap. Rey pla
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    • all the best
      W hOw same
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    • vcvcbc
      cool ...
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    View more 3 comments
  • alex alexalex
    ·2022-09-21
    up down up down
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • PRO AMD
      yes aaa
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    • all the best
      Calm haha
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    • vcvcbc
      bro sad
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    View more 1 comments
  • THB
    ·2022-09-21
    Fonally
    Sad
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • all the best
      Yeah lets go
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    • vcvcbc
      don't sad
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    • alex alexalex
      down and down
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
    View more 1 comments
  • Yckit2000
    ·2022-09-21
    FEDs will continue to do what they need to do; take the opportunity whenever there is a "bargain" in the market
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • ET77
      Yup 75 points is no surprise
      2022-09-21
      Reply
      Report
  • skiing
    ·2022-09-21
    If they raise more than expected, the pain will prolong. Hope that doesn't happen
    Reply
    Report
  • LesterTan
    ·2022-09-21
    Will be 75bps this round n slow down from here hopefully.
    Reply
    Report
  • CYberviRus
    ·2022-09-20
    Thank you
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • KW1
      ok
      2022-09-20
      Reply
      Report
  • 88wlam88
    ·2022-09-21
    Won’t be surprised to see a 100bps hike tonight?
    Reply
    Report
  • Tiger Rookie
    ·2022-09-21
    Thanks for sharing 😊
    Reply
    Report
  • iNkwiziTs
    ·2022-09-21
    Should we be worry?
    Reply
    Report
  • KDL
    ·2022-09-21
    thanks for sharing
    Reply
    Report
  • sbikeken
    ·2022-09-21
    從來都沒有看過那麼厲害的PO文!
    Reply
    Report
  • Pepermintpat
    ·2022-09-21
    75 pTs it will be. two more to come
    Reply
    Report
  • DodoOne
    ·2022-09-21
    Thank you for sharing. I have been trying to find out why USD is going strong recently.
    Reply
    Report
  • RedpillBluep
    ·2022-09-20
    I think everyone expects that to be the minimum. Might be higher as the inflation monster needs to be tamed.
    Reply
    Report
  • lowmy
    ·2022-09-20
    I think the market may expect a 100 basis point rise
    Reply
    Report
  • SGboy
    ·2022-09-20
    I guess it will be 75.
    Reply
    Report
  • MARYGOH
    ·2022-09-21
    👍👌 thank you for sharing
    Reply
    Report
  • Milliamwong
    ·2022-09-21
    一样的啦 不用理会
    Reply
    Report
  • 苗派
    ·2022-09-21
    Interest rate Up, stock down, dollar Up, oil down, just like see saw up & down 🥵
    Reply
    Report