82% probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points
September 20 Fed interest rate forecast:
- Probability of a 75-point hike to 300-325 in September is 82%, and probability of a 100-point hike is 18%.
- The probability of a 75-point hike on Nov. 22 to 375-400 is 60.4%, the 50-point is 27.6%, and the 100-point is 11.9%.
- The probability of a 50-point rate hike on December 14 to 425-450 is 46.7%.
Let me tell you about yesterday's big order. I see the PUT of large-cap ETFs starting to close positions. The main big trades are in the same direction: spread, call, put.
Among them, the spread is a heavy position strategy, while the PUT and call are relatively light positions, which may be because the odds are appropriate. There is plenty of room for a rebound, while a fall would test the June lows.
At present many stock trend and market deviation, stock can be used as a reference, but I think now the market direction > stocks, specific can refer to Monday article: 100 million put big single bearish! There is no clear consensus on the path of rate rises. Institutions have not clear direction, we follow the flow to do the straddle or spread can be.
Individual stock options are still dominated by straddles, but semiconductors, financials and pharmaceutical heavyweights have strong orders.
Among them, Tesla has several recent bullish orders, as shown in the chart
also tiger options group：Tiger Options Club
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