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09-19 14:58

How to Safely Go Long on U.S. Treasuries in the Rate Cut Cycle?

In the early hours of September 19, the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut, marking its first reduction since March 2020.Since 1984, the U.S. has experienced six rate cut cycles:1984-1986: 26 cuts over 23 months, totaling 562.5 bps.1989-1992: 24 cuts over 38 months, totaling 681.25 bps.1995-1998: 7 cuts over 40 months, totaling 125 bps.2001-2003: 13 cuts over 29 months, totaling 550 bps.2007-2008: 10 cuts over 14 months, totaling 500 bps.2019-2020: 5 cuts over 7 months, totaling 225 bps.In all six cycles, the 10-year Treasury yield declined. After the rate cut cycle ended, the yield typically rebounded. Here’s how it breaks down:First Three Months Post-Cut: Anticipation of cuts leads to a notable drop in yields, and the decline was significantly higher than that of other stages, avera
How to Safely Go Long on U.S. Treasuries in the Rate Cut Cycle?
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09-18 15:51

What Options to Buy After Rate Cuts? Biotech ETF XBI!

The market widely anticipates that the Fed will cut rates for the first time this cycle. Historically, rate cuts can lead to very different outcomes for various asset classes and sectors, depending on whether the economy enters a recession or avoids one.If a recession occurs, U.S. stocks typically drop an average of 4% within 12 months of the first rate cut. However, if the economy avoids a recession, stocks usually rise by about 18%. This means the broader macroeconomic scenario after the initial rate cut becomes more crucial than the cut itself.In a recessionary environment, fixed-income assets like U.S. Treasuries generally outperform stocks. Regardless of whether the investment horizon is 3, 6, or 12 months post-cut, U.S. Treasuries consistently perform better than stocks. This makes g
What Options to Buy After Rate Cuts? Biotech ETF XBI!

Trade U.S. Treasuries with Diagonal Spreads as Fed eyes rate cuts

After the August CPI report, Nick Timiraos, known as the Fed’s "mouthpiece," wrote that the inflation rate dropped to a three-year low in August. This decrease might prompt the Fed to start gradually cutting rates at next week’s meeting.According to the Labor Department, August’s CPI rose by 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.9% in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of cooling. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained steady at 3.2%.Despite a stronger-than-expected housing inflation in August, which could complicate a larger 50-basis-point cut, traders are betting on a more gradual policy easing by the Fed.Most Fed officials have signaled they’re ready to cut rates, and the CPI report isn’t expected to change that. This inflation relief offers some breathing r
Trade U.S. Treasuries with Diagonal Spreads as Fed eyes rate cuts

NVDA & Tech Stocks in Rate Cut: How to Play?

During the interest rate cut cycle, U.S. tech stocks typically benefit from several factors: lower financing costs, higher valuations, capital flows into tech stocks, weaker Dollar, boost technological innovation and M&A activities, stimulated consumer demand, and improved market sentiment. Based on this backdrop, several options strategies can be utilized to capitalize on these trends.Impact of Rate Cuts on Tech Stocks 1. Lower Financing Costs Rate cuts reduce financing costs, which is great for high-growth tech companies that need funding for R&D, market expansion, and innovation.2. Increased ValuationsLower rates decrease discount rates, boosting the present value of future cash flows and thus raising tech stock valuations.3. Capital Flows Into Tech StocksAs yields on fixed-inco
NVDA & Tech Stocks in Rate Cut: How to Play?

Investment Banks Bullish on Tesla: Is It Time to Buy Calls?

Deutsche Bank has recently issued a rare bullish report on $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , upgrading its rating to "Buy" and naming it a top pick in the automotive sector. Previously, the bank had maintained a "Neutral" stance on Tesla. Deutsche Bank has also reinstated its price target for Tesla, setting it at $295.Tesla Technology PlatformDeutsche Bank viewed Tesla as a tech platform with the potential to transform multiple industries. Analyst Edison Yu highlighted the company's potential in autonomous driving and humanoid robots as reasons for its unique premium. Additionally, Tesla's energy storage business is seen as reaching a significant growth and profitability inflection point, with expected sales of $13 billion by 2025.Analysts forecast Tesla wil
Investment Banks Bullish on Tesla: Is It Time to Buy Calls?

Roaring Kitty Returns: Trade GME with a Sell Straddle Strategy!

After a nearly two-month hiatus, the famous retail trader "Roaring Kitty," aka Keith Gill, made a comeback. His first post in a while on X was a cryptic image from the 1999 film “Toy Story 2”. The image, altered to show a dog's face on Woody, the cowboy toy, quickly caught the attention of retail investors.Gill’s post sparked significant movement in the stocks of $GameStop(GME)$ and $Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$. On Friday, GameStop's share price surged by as much as 9% after the post, ultimately closing up 6.8% at $23.92.$550,000 in 40 minutesAccording to LSEG data, about 18 minutes before Gill’s post, a trader bought roughly 10,000 GameStop call options expiring on September 13 with a strike price of $22.5, totali
Roaring Kitty Returns: Trade GME with a Sell Straddle Strategy!

Oracle Earnings Ahead! How to play volatility with a short position?

$Oracle(ORCL)$ will release its Q1 FY2025 earnings after hours on Monday. Investors are likely to focus on cloud infrastructure growth. According to Visible Alpha, analysts expect the software giant to report revenue of $13.23 billion, up over 6% year-over-year. EPS is expected to be $0.91, compared to $0.86 last year; net income is anticipated to be $2.57 billion.In June, Oracle announced cloud infrastructure deals with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , OpenAI, and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ while reporting Q4 earnings, pushing its stock to a record high. Oracle’s stock dipped slightly last Friday but has risen about 35% thi
Oracle Earnings Ahead! How to play volatility with a short position?

Nvidia Stock Plunges: Is This a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has recently faced a sharp decline, with its stock dropping over 17% in just nine trading days, wiping out nearly $550 billion in market value and shaking up the US stock market. Nvidia's 30-day volatility has reached its highest level since mid-2022.Wall Street analysts are questioning: Is now the right time to buy Nvidia on the dip?Here are the five main reasons behind the Plunge:1. Antitrust Risks: The US DOJ has issued subpoenas to Nvidia and related parties to investigate possible antitrust violations. Although Nvidia denies receiving the subpoenas, concerns about increased regulatory scrutiny in the AI sector are weighing on the stock.2. Chip Release Delays: Nvidia’s new AI chip, Blackwell, has been delayed due to design
Nvidia Stock Plunges: Is This a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity?

Made $12 Million in Two Days! Strategy to Bet on VIX Again!

The calm in the U.S. stock market was shattered on Tuesday, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ plunging over 2% and the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ soaring. This volatility spike netted an options trader around $12 million in profits by Friday night.The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ jumped due to a tech stock sell-off dragging down the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ gapped down 2.8% and continued to slide, ending 9.5% lower at a three-week low of $108, shrinking its market cap by $279 billion.On Friday night, an investor spent nearly $9 million buying 350,000
Made $12 Million in Two Days! Strategy to Bet on VIX Again!

GME Strategy: Ratio Spread for High Returns with Low Risk

$GameStop(GME)$ is set to release its Q2 earnings report after the market closes on September 10, 2024. Analysts are predicting a loss of 9 cents per share and revenue of $895.67 million. Recently, GameStop announced it was terminating a $250 million credit line, signaling a shift in strategy to rely more on operational cash flow and reserves for funding.To revitalize its retail business, GameStop is transforming some stores into retro game retailers. This move targets nostalgic gamers interested in classic consoles and games, tapping into the growing retro gaming market. The stock closed up 8.88% at $23.42 last Friday, and it continued to surge in after-hours trading on Tuesday.GameStop Options ActivityOn August 30, 2024, GameStop options trading
GME Strategy: Ratio Spread for High Returns with Low Risk

Intel Stock Reversal? Consider a Bull Call Spread for the Bottom

$Intel(INTC)$ 's stock has plummeted nearly 60% this year, making it one of the worst performers in the chip sector. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen by nearly 20%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged nearly 30%.Intel was a flagship enterprise in Silicon Valley. In the mid-1980s, Intel and Microsoft jointly ushered in the PC era, enabling Intel to become a global giant in the chip industry.However, Intel isn't even the top earner in semiconductor revenue anymore. Its market cap has dropped below $90 billion, while Nvidia's market cap is approaching $3 trillion—over 30 times Intel’s.$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ’s market cap is close to $900 billion, ten times Intel’s. AMD,
Intel Stock Reversal? Consider a Bull Call Spread for the Bottom

Is PDD at a Bottom? Consider Diagonal Spreads for Long Positions

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ released its Q2 earnings report this week, showing an 86% year-over-year revenue increase, getting closer to the $100 billion mark. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, and online market service revenue also underperformed.The real shocker came during the conference call when management hinted at worsening competition: “Our operations [have] also become increasingly affected by nonbusiness factors. And meanwhile, the competition we face is growing stronger. Competition is here to stay and is expected to intensify in our industry.These factors combined will inevitably cause fluctuations to our business. As shown in this quarter’s results, high revenue growth is not sustainable, and a downward trend in profi
Is PDD at a Bottom? Consider Diagonal Spreads for Long Positions

SMCI stock is crashing! How to Short Using Options?

Recently, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ has come under scrutiny by Hindenburg Research, a well-known short-seller. Hindenburg claims the server manufacturer has “accounting manipulation” issues.The report alleges Supermicro has serious accounting problems, undisclosed related-party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and client issues. Hindenburg’s investigation involved interviews with former employees and legal records, suggesting the company has “obvious accounting issues” and has been struggling with accountability since 2018. Back then, Supermicro was temporarily delisted by $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ for failing to file essential financial reports. The SEC accused the company of widespread
SMCI stock is crashing! How to Short Using Options?

📈NVIDIA Earnings Ahead: 3 Options Strategies Guide📊

After the market closes on August 28, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ the AI chip giant, will release its Q2 2025 earnings report. This report is crucial for investors to gauge whether U.S. companies are still heavily investing in AI technology, and it is one of the most significant tech earnings reports this season. It will determine if the AI trade continues.Analysts expect NVIDIA to report Q2 revenue of $28.639 billion, up 112.03% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $0.60, up 141.49%.Bloomberg forecasts that NVIDIA's critical Data Center segment will achieve $25.023 billion in revenue, up 142.40% yoy, making up 87% of total revenue, up from 86% last quarter. The Gaming segment is expected to generate $2.793 billion, a 12.34% increase.Read More>>
📈NVIDIA Earnings Ahead: 3 Options Strategies Guide📊

Li Auto(LI) Earnings Ahead! How to Position with Options?

$Li Auto(LI)$ will release its Q2 earnings report before the market opens on August 28. The company’s last quarter was disappointing, with both revenue and net profit falling short of expectations, and it announced an 18% workforce reduction. Initially, the 2024 delivery forecast was set at 800,000 vehicles, but by early June, it was revised down to 480,000 vehicles.After a weak and disappointing Q1 in 2024, there has been some positive news recently: Li Auto’s sales data rebounded strongly. In June and July, Li Auto delivered 47,774 and 51,000 vehicles, respectively, compared to 20,251 in February.For Q2, Li Auto delivered 108,581 vehicles, aligning with the management's forecast of 105,000 to 110,000 vehicles shared during the Q1 earnings call. Th
Li Auto(LI) Earnings Ahead! How to Position with Options?

Strategy to Go Long on US Treasuries as Powell "Hints" at Rate Cut

With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinting at a rate cut next month, bond traders are now focusing on the size of the initial cut and future easing. Powell made his clearest signal yet last Friday, saying the time to lower the benchmark rate from its 20-year high has arrived.After Powell’s speech, U.S. Treasury prices rose, with yields across all maturities falling. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the day at 3.8%, down 8 basis points from the previous week. Bloomberg’s index shows a 1.44% yield on U.S. government bonds this month.Treasuries are set for their fourth consecutive month of gains, the longest positive streak in three years. The prospect of Fed rate cuts has lifted the S&P 500 by 18% so far this year. Since late June, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped over 4%.Rate cuts al
Strategy to Go Long on US Treasuries as Powell "Hints" at Rate Cut

BABA's Dual Primary Listing: Is a Buying Opportunity?

On August 23, $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ announced that it will voluntarily change its secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) to a primary listing on August 28, 2024. Then, Alibaba will be dual-listed as a primary company on both HKEX and NYSE. The stock marker "S" will be removed from its stock short names for both HKD and RMB counters on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the Effective Date.This voluntary switch to dual primary listing does not involve issuing new shares or raising new capital.On August 22, Alibaba’s shareholders approved the proposal for the primary listing in Hong Kong. Once Alibaba completes this transition and is included in the Stock Connect program, mainland
BABA's Dual Primary Listing: Is a Buying Opportunity?

Trump Stock DJT Rebounds Sharply: A New Shorting Opportunity

As the U.S. election approaches, $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ has become a key stock for investors betting on Trump's chances of winning.Over the past month, DJT's stock has been on a steady decline. On Tuesday, DJT dropped to $21.33, a new low since the company's SPAC merger. However, on Wednesday, DJT's stock surged 13%, possibly signaling a shift in the election landscape.DJT's performance is closely tied to Trump's likelihood of winning. Last month, when Trump's popularity surged due to an unexpected attempted shooting event, DJT’s stock spiked 31.37% on July 15, with trading volume increasing significantly.According to PredictIt, Trump's chances of winning the election have dropped from 69% to 47% over the past month. Meanwhile, polls s
Trump Stock DJT Rebounds Sharply: A New Shorting Opportunity

Decoding NetEase's Financial Options Game through Black Myth: Wukong

"Black Myth: Wukong" has taken the global gaming market by storm, breaking records across all platforms. According to the national game sales rankings, it has sold over 3 million copies on Steam alone, with total sales exceeding 4.5 million copies and revenue topping ¥1.5 billion. High expectations for "Black Myth: Wukong" were highlighted by Goldman Sachs, which called it a significant turning point for the Chinese console game industry and a key step for Chinese games on the global stage. This success may spur increased investment in Chinese games, especially in the 3A category.Goldman Sachs believes that $TENCENT(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ and $NTES
Decoding NetEase's Financial Options Game through Black Myth: Wukong

AMD Acquires Key NVDA Supplier: Try Diagonal Bullish Spread?

On Monday, U.S. chip giant $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ announced on its website that it has signed a final agreement to acquire ZT Systems for $4.9 billion.AMD will pay this $4.9 billion in a mix of cash and stock. According to media reports, 75% of the payment will be in cash, with the remaining 25% in stock.ZT Systems, founded in 1994, is a provider of AI and general-purpose computing infrastructure. Their products include high-performance computing (HPC) servers and storage servers, mainly serving large cloud companies and enterprise clients with customized solutions.A report from JPMorgan on Tuesday noted that ZT’s strong design and service capabilities could boost AMD’s deployment of AI servers in data centers.
AMD Acquires Key NVDA Supplier: Try Diagonal Bullish Spread?

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