Event: Tesla reports Q3 FY2025 after the close on Oct‑22. Street setup: Revenue around $26.16B (+4% YoY); adj. net income ~$1.89B (‑24% YoY) — pricing pressure keeps the spotlight on margins. Tape history (last 8 quarters): average first‑day move ~+10.5%, best +21.9%, worst ‑12.3%; ~50/50 odds of a green day right after earnings. Key debate: “record deliveries” vs. automotive gross margin ex‑credits and the Energy mix — which narrative dominates? My base case: in‑line revenue with stable or slightly better ex‑credit auto GM and strong Energy growth → muted move (‑3% ~ +3%); beats with constructive margin/color push the reaction toward the upper end of the historical range. What’s happening (facts & setup) Catalyst: Q3 FY2025 results and outlook call. Consensus guardrails (approx.): Rev

— A one‑day wipeout of this magnitude is usually a liquidity event first, a macro story second. You only buy the dip when real yields cool, the USD stalls, and forced liquidations stop showing up in price action. — Use five hard signals to separate “capitulation low” from “dead‑cat bounce”: real yields, dollar trend, positioning reset, ETF flows, and term‑structure/physical premiums. — Three ways to trade it (reversal, trend‑respect, defined‑risk options) plus a checklist for miners vs. metal. What just happened — A violent down‑day flushed weak hands across futures and ETFs; spreads blew out, implied vol spiked, and intraday liquidity thinned. — The narrative flipped from “structural buying” to “who is forced to sell”: systematic deleveraging, risk‑parity re‑hedging, CTA trend flips, and

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