sptang personal page - To The Moon

sptang

sptang

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2023-02-11

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大降价一个月后，特斯拉突然宣布涨价两千，释放了什么信号？

2022-12-22

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2022-12-21

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2022-12-06

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2022-12-03

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2022-11-24

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2022-11-23

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Howard Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing

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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大降价一个月后，特斯拉突然宣布涨价两千，释放了什么信号？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-10 14:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21873486><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉“不按套路出牌”，仅针对Model Y后驱版涨价2000元。2月10日，特斯拉中国官网显示，Model Y后驱版涨价2000元至26.19万元。预计交付时间为2-5周。其余车型价格未变。特斯拉本次涨价被不少人称作“不按套路出牌”，因为距其上次大规模降价仅仅时隔一个月。1月6日，特斯拉国产车型大幅降价，Model 3起售价22.99万元，Model Y起售价25.99万元，创下历史最低价格，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21873486\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35e36c5008a2d7ce4d8a0a2b089171d","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21873486","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191944050","content_text":"特斯拉“不按套路出牌”，仅针对Model Y后驱版涨价2000元。2月10日，特斯拉中国官网显示，Model Y后驱版涨价2000元至26.19万元。预计交付时间为2-5周。其余车型价格未变。特斯拉本次涨价被不少人称作“不按套路出牌”，因为距其上次大规模降价仅仅时隔一个月。1月6日，特斯拉国产车型大幅降价，Model 3起售价22.99万元，Model Y起售价25.99万元，创下历史最低价格，降幅从6%至13.5%不等。其中，Model 3后轮驱动版从26.59万元降至22.99万元，降幅为3.6万元；Model 3高性能版由34.99万元降至32.99万元，降幅为2万元。Model Y后轮驱动版从28.89万元降到25.99万元，降幅为2.9万元；Model Y长续航版由35.79万元降至30.99万元，降幅为4.8万元；Model Y高性能版由39.79万元降至35.99万元，降幅为3.8万元。此时正值新能源国家补贴刚刚退出，而比亚迪、广汽埃安等头部新能源品牌早已宣布涨价，不少车企还纷纷以“限时保价”的噱头来招揽客户，特斯拉的降价令不少竞品乱了阵脚。一周之后，华为和赛力斯联合打造的AITO问界成了第一家跟进降价的企业，将问界M5 EV、问界M7舒适版与豪华版售价下调3万元左右。1月17日，小鹏汽车发布公告称，对G3i、P5、P7三款旧车型进行调价，降幅为2万-3.6万元。春节之后，降价趋势蔓延开来，更多车企加入了由特斯拉掀起的价格战。包括蔚来、极氪、宏光MINIEV、吉利帝豪、沃尔沃等在内的多个品牌对旗下部分车型开启降价。尤其是鲜少公开促销活动的蔚来，也官宣了大力度的购车优惠，对所有车型提供贷款两年免息（20万元-30万元）和1.99%的低费率金融方案；提供国家补贴兜底优惠、长库龄展车优惠等，其中长库龄展车优惠最高可达1.8万至2.4万不等。对于本次2000元的小幅调价，业内人士普遍预计不会有其它新能源品牌做出跟随涨价动作。对于频繁调价，特斯拉方面曾多次强调其“成本定价”的原则。特斯拉公司副总裁陶琳曾在微博上表示，特斯拉从“第一性原理出发”，坚持以成本定价，“特斯拉价格调整的背后，涵盖了无数工程创新，实质上是独一无二的成本控制之极佳定律。”不过市场对于“成本定价”的说辞并不买账，例如针对1月6日降价，路透社等外媒以及不少业内人士均将其解读为拉动需求。就本次Model Y后驱版车型涨价，有不少业内人士认为是在刺激消费者购买需求，向“等等党”释放不会继续降价的信号。在特斯拉降价消息出来后，已有不少销售人员向潜在客户表示，特斯拉已小幅涨价，建议不要继续观望。有供应链相关人士对澎湃新闻记者表示，“同一家主机厂配件通用性和可替换性都很强，尤其是中低价位车型几乎不会用到特殊的配件。”他补充说，“近期锂也并没有涨价，Model Y涨价未必和成本变动有关。”此外，当地时间2月3日，特斯拉也上调了Model Y长续航版和Model Y高性能版在美国市场的售价。外媒分析认为，是强劲的需求促使特斯拉上调Model Y售价，以保障盈利能力。日前，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2022年第四季度财报电话会议上表示，降价带来需求激增，今年1月份的订单达到了产能的两倍。乘联会数据显示，今年1月，特斯拉中国销量为6.6万辆，出口量为3.9万辆，以此计算，特斯拉中国在国内市场的销量为2.7万辆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922030638,"gmtCreate":1671642286324,"gmtModify":1676538569557,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","listText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","text":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922030638","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926296995,"gmtCreate":1671552721817,"gmtModify":1676538554977,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","listText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","text":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926296995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928658058,"gmtCreate":1671272187975,"gmtModify":1676538518308,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","listText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","text":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928658058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921446301,"gmtCreate":1671118542903,"gmtModify":1676538493787,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","listText":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","text":"😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921446301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967170794,"gmtCreate":1670288288318,"gmtModify":1676538337070,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967170794","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964481574,"gmtCreate":1670199167699,"gmtModify":1676538317482,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964481574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965767667,"gmtCreate":1670026994160,"gmtModify":1676538290335,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯😯😯😯😯","listText":"😯😯😯😯😯","text":"😯😯😯😯😯","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98d221537d2c4536e746d97ead716dcd","width":"1125","height":"10534"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965767667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968252686,"gmtCreate":1669248076946,"gmtModify":1676538172472,"author":{"id":"3552548580314246","authorId":"3552548580314246","name":"sptang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bcf5804031a37b3f7e5a3b797aebd40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelS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19:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Howard Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285896938","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street ti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street titan Howard Marks kept being asked the same question, over and over again: when will interest rates finally start to rise?</p><p>The founder of alternative investing giant Oaktree Capital was typically blunt in his response.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.566%2C$multiply_2%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_15/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_620%2Cq_88%2Cf_auto/4e5d94fce2e79c353127e4ca25ff135c0f2de1c6\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"414\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Howard Marks says investors can get obsessed with the wrong things.  David Rowe</span></p><p>“Why do you care?” he said. “If I say ‘February’, what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say ‘May’, what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?”</p><p>No one ever offered a convincing answer, Marks says in his latest memo.</p><p>“Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.”</p><p>There is no shortage of parallels between Marks’ experience seven years ago and what’s happening today, in a market that’s become obsessed with macroeconomic events.</p><p>In 2015, the question of when rates would rise was on everyone’s lips, but today the frequently asked questions are about when inflation will peak, or when the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates.</p><p>Marks’ message has not changed. Not only can the majority of investors not hope to predict macroeconomic events, but they have even less chance of accurately predicting the market’s reaction to them.</p><p>More than this, though, Marks argues that this stuff doesn’t matter. Too many investors get caught up in short-term gyrations in markets that have little impact on ultimate long-term performance.</p><p>“Macro events and the ups and downs of companies’ near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of, or relevant to, companies’ long-term prospects. So, little attention should be paid to them.”</p><p>Marks’ latest memo, which is called <i>What Really Matters</i>, has extra significance for this column, given Marks let slip the title when he spoke to <i>The Australian Financial Review </i>during an interview in Sydney.</p><p>Despite the title, the memo is mainly about what doesn’t matter – starting with short-term events.</p><p>Marks’ view that trying to interpret daily movements in share prices is a mug’s game is particularly relevant in today’s market.</p><p>As New York-based hedge fund manager Ricky Sandler, of Eminence Capital, told the Sohn Hearts &amp; Minds conference last Friday, the rise and rise of passive investing – now 55 per cent of the market, up from about 25 per cent a decade ago – means share prices no longer reflect fundamental value.</p><p>“In the past, we used to look at a stock that was acting well, and you think the market is coming around to your view, but now you can just be caught up in a six-week factor trade,” he said.</p><p>But Marks would say stock price movements over weeks and months never really provided much information about fundamental value because this is not how companies work.</p><p>Which brings Marks to his second thing that doesn’t matter: a trading mentality.</p><p>“Most people don’t start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business.</p><p>“Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they’re likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business.”</p><p>But Marks argues investors have increasingly come to view stocks not as fractional ownership of a business, but as a tool for profit.</p><p>“[Warren] Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals. But I think that’s rarely the case. Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.”</p><p>But success in trading is not the mark of a successful investor, Marks says, because short-term performance – particularly over a quarter but even over a year – also doesn’t matter. Not only can it be influenced by random events, but it probably reflects more on an investor’s aggressiveness (particularly in a period of rising market) than it does skill or even timing.</p><p>Perhaps more surprisingly for an investor who has made a career out of finding and exploiting distressed opportunities, Marks also says volatility doesn’t matter nearly as much as investors think.</p><p>Partly, this comes down to what he sees as misdiagnosis of what volatility is. “I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk,” he says.</p><p>But Marks says too many investors react emotionally to volatility, rather than financially. For long-term investors, some volatility should actually be welcome, given lower volatility should mean lower returns, all things being equal. Marks quotes Buffett’s famous maxim: a lumpy 15 per cent is better than a smooth 12 per cent.</p><p>So, after all that, what does matter? Marks’ answer is simple. “What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or 10 years [or more], and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs.”</p><p>In other words, forget macro trends, focus on fundamentals such as earnings potential, and buy stocks and bonds that look cheap relative to this.</p><p>And then, try to do as little as possible.</p><p>“Hold on to them as long as the company’s earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact, and make changes only when those things can’t be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along,” Marks says.</p><p>“Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.”</p><p>To finish, Marks offers 10 key things that he believes should be front of mind for investors, which he says are a sort of greatest hits collection from his memos over the years.</p><p>The list, summarised below, might sound obvious to many experienced investors. But in an environment where this columnist feels like the markets (and himself) are gyrating according to the latest piece of macro data, these lessons feel timely and important.</p><h2>Howard Marks’ 10 elements for investors</h2><ul><li>Forget the short run – only the long run matters.</li><li>Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?</li><li>Does your investment style match your personality? Do you tend more towards aggressiveness or defensiveness? Will you try to find more and bigger winners, or focus on avoiding losers, or both? (Hint: “both” is much harder to achieve than one or the other.)</li><li>Think of your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness based on your financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Will you vary this balance depending on what happens in the market?</li><li>Adopt a healthy attitude towards return and risk. Understand that higher returns are usually accompanied by increased risk, while avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.</li><li>Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.</li><li>Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not.</li><li>Recognise that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings and profiting if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.</li><li>Study conditions in the investment environment – especially investor behaviour – and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favour or against you.</li><li>Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9 per cent bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you’ll be happy with 9 per cent. Don’t buy 9 per cent bonds expecting to make 11 per cent thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 19:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/howard-marks-10-key-elements-for-investing-20221123-p5c0oe><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street titan Howard Marks kept being asked the same question, over and over again: when will interest rates ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/howard-marks-10-key-elements-for-investing-20221123-p5c0oe\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/howard-marks-10-key-elements-for-investing-20221123-p5c0oe","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285896938","content_text":"In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street titan Howard Marks kept being asked the same question, over and over again: when will interest rates finally start to rise?The founder of alternative investing giant Oaktree Capital was typically blunt in his response.Howard Marks says investors can get obsessed with the wrong things.  David Rowe“Why do you care?” he said. “If I say ‘February’, what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say ‘May’, what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?”No one ever offered a convincing answer, Marks says in his latest memo.“Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.”There is no shortage of parallels between Marks’ experience seven years ago and what’s happening today, in a market that’s become obsessed with macroeconomic events.In 2015, the question of when rates would rise was on everyone’s lips, but today the frequently asked questions are about when inflation will peak, or when the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates.Marks’ message has not changed. Not only can the majority of investors not hope to predict macroeconomic events, but they have even less chance of accurately predicting the market’s reaction to them.More than this, though, Marks argues that this stuff doesn’t matter. Too many investors get caught up in short-term gyrations in markets that have little impact on ultimate long-term performance.“Macro events and the ups and downs of companies’ near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of, or relevant to, companies’ long-term prospects. So, little attention should be paid to them.”Marks’ latest memo, which is called What Really Matters, has extra significance for this column, given Marks let slip the title when he spoke to The Australian Financial Review during an interview in Sydney.Despite the title, the memo is mainly about what doesn’t matter – starting with short-term events.Marks’ view that trying to interpret daily movements in share prices is a mug’s game is particularly relevant in today’s market.As New York-based hedge fund manager Ricky Sandler, of Eminence Capital, told the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference last Friday, the rise and rise of passive investing – now 55 per cent of the market, up from about 25 per cent a decade ago – means share prices no longer reflect fundamental value.“In the past, we used to look at a stock that was acting well, and you think the market is coming around to your view, but now you can just be caught up in a six-week factor trade,” he said.But Marks would say stock price movements over weeks and months never really provided much information about fundamental value because this is not how companies work.Which brings Marks to his second thing that doesn’t matter: a trading mentality.“Most people don’t start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business.“Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they’re likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business.”But Marks argues investors have increasingly come to view stocks not as fractional ownership of a business, but as a tool for profit.“[Warren] Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals. But I think that’s rarely the case. Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.”But success in trading is not the mark of a successful investor, Marks says, because short-term performance – particularly over a quarter but even over a year – also doesn’t matter. Not only can it be influenced by random events, but it probably reflects more on an investor’s aggressiveness (particularly in a period of rising market) than it does skill or even timing.Perhaps more surprisingly for an investor who has made a career out of finding and exploiting distressed opportunities, Marks also says volatility doesn’t matter nearly as much as investors think.Partly, this comes down to what he sees as misdiagnosis of what volatility is. “I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk,” he says.But Marks says too many investors react emotionally to volatility, rather than financially. For long-term investors, some volatility should actually be welcome, given lower volatility should mean lower returns, all things being equal. Marks quotes Buffett’s famous maxim: a lumpy 15 per cent is better than a smooth 12 per cent.So, after all that, what does matter? Marks’ answer is simple. “What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or 10 years [or more], and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs.”In other words, forget macro trends, focus on fundamentals such as earnings potential, and buy stocks and bonds that look cheap relative to this.And then, try to do as little as possible.“Hold on to them as long as the company’s earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact, and make changes only when those things can’t be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along,” Marks says.“Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.”To finish, Marks offers 10 key things that he believes should be front of mind for investors, which he says are a sort of greatest hits collection from his memos over the years.The list, summarised below, might sound obvious to many experienced investors. But in an environment where this columnist feels like the markets (and himself) are gyrating according to the latest piece of macro data, these lessons feel timely and important.Howard Marks’ 10 elements for investorsForget the short run – only the long run matters.Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?Does your investment style match your personality? Do you tend more towards aggressiveness or defensiveness? Will you try to find more and bigger winners, or focus on avoiding losers, or both? (Hint: “both” is much harder to achieve than one or the other.)Think of your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness based on your financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Will you vary this balance depending on what happens in the market?Adopt a healthy attitude towards return and risk. Understand that higher returns are usually accompanied by increased risk, while avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not.Recognise that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings and profiting if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.Study conditions in the investment environment – especially investor behaviour – and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favour or against you.Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9 per cent bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you’ll be happy with 9 per cent. Don’t buy 9 per cent bonds expecting to make 11 per cent thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest 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