Lord_Kuberan personal page - To The Moon

Lord_Kuberan

Lord_Kuberan

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2023-06-23

Who is winning now!

2023-06-21

It's really a tough game! Is a trick to play this game ?

2023-06-18

How is eve RT one doing playing this game!

2023-06-16

Though game for me!

2023-06-15

Cool game n let's Play!

2023-06-14

Good best thrill Love

2023-06-13

Let's go make money!!

2023-06-11

Don't forget to join and claim the rewards!

@TigerEvents:Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999

2023-06-11

Hopefully I'm not late to join

2023-05-24

Pause!

Is a Fed Rate Pause Coming? Watch for Hints in Today’s Minutes

2023-05-21

I have no idea why Buffet is buying oil where as Fed isn't Backing Off from their agenda! If recession is on the green light zone, everything would tend to fall apart.

Occidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Buys Again, So Should You?

2023-05-21

It's a good read if any of you still in EV theme!

Tesla: Prepare For A Macroeconomic Storm

2023-05-21

If oil is bearish, the whole market is going to crash soon. But I am still in huge dilemma those big companies are still sitting with big piles of money. Anytime they could sbb.

Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst

2023-05-07

Looking forward to $1.50 soon and hopefully the company keep SBB.

Food Empire's Presence in Russia, Vietnam Makes It an Attractive Target -- Market Talk

2023-05-07

Basically, there are way better company than this. For instance, REITS in SGX are significantly rewarding investor quarterly despite the capital gain.

4 Dividend-Paying Singapore Stocks for Young Working Adults

2023-05-07

How to avoid from losing big money and preserve your capital.

First of all, start your trading with high volume, high volatility, and a large market capitalization stock. There are several reasons to validate this: a) You will be able to see good price action. b) There will be less manipulation in the market. c) You will be able to preserve your capital easily by selling quickly d) You will be able to access resources or news easily across the internet. Here is my basic advice to avoid losing significant amounts of money in trading: a) When making a price entry, always have support and resistance levels. If you are unsure about the levels, do not try to trade. Support is the price level at which buyers are heavily waiting or holding the stock. Resistance is the ceiling price that the stock is unlikely to surpass. b) Trend: The trend is always

How to avoid from losing big money and preserve your capital.

2023-04-17

3 more days to go And claim your rewards guys!

2023-04-16

Couple days more before everyone wins their rewards!

2023-04-15

Who would be the lucky ass to get the Disney share

2023-04-13

Hopefully to win something from here

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Watch for Hints in Today’s Minutes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175229492","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Federal Reserve officials moved unanimously to raise interest rates at the central bank’s policy mee","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve officials moved unanimously to raise interest rates at the central bank’s policy meeting earlier this month despite significant debate at the time over whether pausing tightening efforts would instead be the more prudent move.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Now, minutes from the Fed’s May 2-3 meeting could offer clues as to just how seriously officials considered holding interest rates steady and whether any members of the Federal Open Market Committee spoke out in favor of a pause.</p><p>The latest Fed minutes, which will be released Wednesday afternoon, will shed new light on the internal discussions that took place during the most recent FOMC meeting, when officials voted to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to a level of 5-5.25%. Though they’re released several weeks after each meeting, the Fed minutes are always closely watched for clues as to how central bank officials are feeling, and where monetary policy is likely headed over the next several weeks or months.</p><p>Leading up to the May meeting, some of the more dovish members of the committee appeared to be leaning against the idea of further policy tightening, arguing that the fallout from a string of bank failures in the spring would have a similar effect on financial conditions as rate hikes do. That would mean, in turn, that the Fed would not have to raise rates as aggressively as it had once indicated.</p><p>But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell knocked down those concerns when he announced the quarter-point increase, emphasized that the banking system was sound, and highlighted his view that the economy might be able to avert recession.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the time, the Fed also hinted that a pause might be coming, though Powell made clear in his postmeeting press conference that the central bank would continue to watch the data and would not hesitate to tighten rates further if needed. The minutes will be closely parsed for clues as to what specifically the central bank will be looking for in the economic data moving forward as the numbers decide whether and when to stop tightening.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed staff’s economic outlook will also be of particular interest in the minutes. The minutes from the March 21-22 meeting revealed that in the immediate aftermath of the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks, Fed staff projected a mild recession beginning later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">When asked during his May postmeeting press conference whether that forecast had been revised at all, Powell largely declined to offer insight.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I wouldn’t want to characterize the staff’s forecast for this meeting,” he told reporters. “We’ll leave that to the minutes.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed will release the minutes on Wednesday at 2 p.m.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is a Fed Rate Pause Coming? Watch for Hints in Today’s Minutes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs a Fed Rate Pause Coming? Watch for Hints in Today’s Minutes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-24 14:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve officials moved unanimously to raise interest rates at the central bank’s policy meeting earlier this month despite significant debate at the time over whether pausing tightening efforts would instead be the more prudent move.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Now, minutes from the Fed’s May 2-3 meeting could offer clues as to just how seriously officials considered holding interest rates steady and whether any members of the Federal Open Market Committee spoke out in favor of a pause.</p><p>The latest Fed minutes, which will be released Wednesday afternoon, will shed new light on the internal discussions that took place during the most recent FOMC meeting, when officials voted to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to a level of 5-5.25%. Though they’re released several weeks after each meeting, the Fed minutes are always closely watched for clues as to how central bank officials are feeling, and where monetary policy is likely headed over the next several weeks or months.</p><p>Leading up to the May meeting, some of the more dovish members of the committee appeared to be leaning against the idea of further policy tightening, arguing that the fallout from a string of bank failures in the spring would have a similar effect on financial conditions as rate hikes do. That would mean, in turn, that the Fed would not have to raise rates as aggressively as it had once indicated.</p><p>But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell knocked down those concerns when he announced the quarter-point increase, emphasized that the banking system was sound, and highlighted his view that the economy might be able to avert recession.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the time, the Fed also hinted that a pause might be coming, though Powell made clear in his postmeeting press conference that the central bank would continue to watch the data and would not hesitate to tighten rates further if needed. The minutes will be closely parsed for clues as to what specifically the central bank will be looking for in the economic data moving forward as the numbers decide whether and when to stop tightening.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed staff’s economic outlook will also be of particular interest in the minutes. The minutes from the March 21-22 meeting revealed that in the immediate aftermath of the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks, Fed staff projected a mild recession beginning later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">When asked during his May postmeeting press conference whether that forecast had been revised at all, Powell largely declined to offer insight.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I wouldn’t want to characterize the staff’s forecast for this meeting,” he told reporters. “We’ll leave that to the minutes.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed will release the minutes on Wednesday at 2 p.m.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175229492","content_text":"Federal Reserve officials moved unanimously to raise interest rates at the central bank’s policy meeting earlier this month despite significant debate at the time over whether pausing tightening efforts would instead be the more prudent move.Now, minutes from the Fed’s May 2-3 meeting could offer clues as to just how seriously officials considered holding interest rates steady and whether any members of the Federal Open Market Committee spoke out in favor of a pause.The latest Fed minutes, which will be released Wednesday afternoon, will shed new light on the internal discussions that took place during the most recent FOMC meeting, when officials voted to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to a level of 5-5.25%. Though they’re released several weeks after each meeting, the Fed minutes are always closely watched for clues as to how central bank officials are feeling, and where monetary policy is likely headed over the next several weeks or months.Leading up to the May meeting, some of the more dovish members of the committee appeared to be leaning against the idea of further policy tightening, arguing that the fallout from a string of bank failures in the spring would have a similar effect on financial conditions as rate hikes do. That would mean, in turn, that the Fed would not have to raise rates as aggressively as it had once indicated.But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell knocked down those concerns when he announced the quarter-point increase, emphasized that the banking system was sound, and highlighted his view that the economy might be able to avert recession.At the time, the Fed also hinted that a pause might be coming, though Powell made clear in his postmeeting press conference that the central bank would continue to watch the data and would not hesitate to tighten rates further if needed. The minutes will be closely parsed for clues as to what specifically the central bank will be looking for in the economic data moving forward as the numbers decide whether and when to stop tightening.The Fed staff’s economic outlook will also be of particular interest in the minutes. The minutes from the March 21-22 meeting revealed that in the immediate aftermath of the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks, Fed staff projected a mild recession beginning later this year.When asked during his May postmeeting press conference whether that forecast had been revised at all, Powell largely declined to offer insight.“I wouldn’t want to characterize the staff’s forecast for this meeting,” he told reporters. “We’ll leave that to the minutes.” The Fed will release the minutes on Wednesday at 2 p.m.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970512497,"gmtCreate":1684678372119,"gmtModify":1684678624949,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I have no idea why Buffet is buying oil where as Fed isn't Backing Off from their agenda! If recession is on the green light zone, everything would tend to fall apart.&nbsp;","listText":"I have no idea why Buffet is buying oil where as Fed isn't Backing Off from their agenda! If recession is on the green light zone, everything would tend to fall apart.&nbsp;","text":"I have no idea why Buffet is buying oil where as Fed isn't Backing Off from their agenda! If recession is on the green light zone, everything would tend to fall apart.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970512497","repostId":"2336702514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2336702514","pubTimestamp":1684499621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2336702514?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-19 20:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Occidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Buys Again, So Should You?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2336702514","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWarren Buffett's recent purchases of OXY prove he's a good market timer, as his buys coincide","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Warren Buffett&#39;s recent purchases of OXY prove he&#39;s a good market timer, as his buys coincided with the OXY stock reaching its supply zone.</p></li><li><p>Despite some weaknesses during Q1, OXY demonstrated some improvements in its financial position, as far as I see it.</p></li><li><p>OXY&#39;s superior FCF yield [TTM] could be a key factor that attracted Warren Buffett to invest in OXY, seeking a liquid company with strong management.</p></li><li><p>Currently, OXY&#39;s stock is valued at 12 times FY2023 earnings, and the projected year-over-year EPS decline of nearly -48% seems too pessimistic to me.</p></li><li><p>I reiterate my previous Buy rating on OXY stock and support Goldman&#39;s target of $77 per share.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108ebd816bbc0b428f13945dd3c1bd30\" alt=\"Paul Morigi\" title=\"Paul Morigi\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Paul Morigi</span></p><h2>Intro &amp; Thesis</h2><p>I&#39;ve been covering the stock of <strong>Occidental Petroleum Corporation</strong> (NYSE:OXY) here on Seeking Alpha since early October 2022, and that time coincided with a fairly difficult period of falling energy commodity prices, so most major oil and gas companies experienced a rather difficult period of increased volatility.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f053060a094fbe58bda98c94f2aecb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The increased volatility hasn&#39;t bypassed OXY. However, the recent turbulence in the stock&#39;s price has provided many savvy investors with an excellent opportunity to increase their allocation. Just a few hours ago, it was revealed that Warren Buffett purchased an additional $200 million [or ~ 3.46 million shares] in OXY stock from May 16-18, 2023, according to the recent SEC filing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8edc99d7f416c869e5fb18ba20d3f4\" alt=\"SEC, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"SEC, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/><span>SEC, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>In total, Berkshire now owns more than 217.3 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, valued at approximately $12.7 billion. Additionally, Berkshire holds around $9.5 billion worth of Occidental preferred stock, which carries an 8% annual dividend, and has warrants to purchase $5 billion worth of Occidental common shares for $59.62 per share.</p><p>These purchases clearly show that Warren Buffett isn&#39;t only a great value investor - he&#39;s also a good market timer, as his recent purchases coincided with the OXY stock reaching its supply zone on the price chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864d170ce8f84b7ad2d89e287c805a7b\" alt=\"TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>As in my last article on OXY from March 2023, I still see quite favorable long-term prospects for the company, and the way Warren Buffett is behaving toward the stock only indirectly confirms my conclusions. In fact, there are some fundamental reasons for retail investors to follow Mr. Buffett. Let&#39;s look at them together.</p><h2>What Are The Reasons To Follow Buffett&#39;s Buys?</h2><p>It&#39;s been a long time since last March and the company managed to report for Q1 FY2023 [May 9, 2023] - let&#39;s first take a quick look at the operational and financial results.</p><p>OXY&#39;s first-quarter results showed adjusted EPS and cash flow from operations [CFO] of $1.09 billion and $3.15 billion, respectively. This missed the consensus forecast of $1.24 per share and $3.12 billion in CFO, according to FactSet data [proprietary source]. The underperformance was primarily attributed to the midstream business and non-cash adjustments related to taxes and other factors. Capital expenditures in the first quarter were $1.46 billion, slightly deviating from the consensus estimate of $1.49 billion. Free cash flow for the quarter was $1.7 billion. Of note, OXY repurchased $752 million of common stock and redeemed $647 million of preferred stock.</p><p>Lower earnings were primarily due to decreased prices for crude oil (-19% YoY), natural gas liquids (-38%), and natural gas (-28%). However, higher production and reduced interest expense partially offset this decline. Revenue also decreased by 14% compared to the previous year, reaching $7.225 billion, falling short of the consensus forecast of $7.617 billion.</p><p>In the Oil and Gas division, the pretax net profit for Q1 2023 was $1.640 billion, down from $2.898 billion in the previous year. This decline was mainly a result of lower realized prices for commodities. Average daily production increased by nearly 13% to 1,220 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), driven by higher international production and strength in the Permian, Rocky Mountain, and Gulf of Mexico regions.</p><p>For the Chemicals division [OxyChem], pretax earnings in the first quarter dropped by 30% compared to the prior year, amounting to $472 million. This decline was attributed to lower polyvinyl prices, reduced volume in most product lines, and narrower margins due to weaker chemical pricing. On a positive note, the division benefited from lower raw material costs.</p><p>The Midstream and Marketing segment reported a pretax profit of $2 million in Q1 2023, in contrast to a pretax loss of $50 million in the same quarter of the previous year. This shift to profitability was primarily driven by the favorable timing impact of crude oil sales and improved gas margins.</p><p>Management has provided guidance numbers for the second quarter and full year 2023 production and financials - I feel it necessary to share with you not only the bare numbers but also how Goldman Sachs analysts evaluate the management&#39;s forecasts in its recently published [May 10, 2023] note on OXY&#39;s Q1 results:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Q2 FY2023</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Full-year 2023</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><ul><li><p>Total production is expected to range from 1,156 to 1,196 MBOE/d, with Goldman Sachs estimating it at 1,183 MBOE/d and the consensus forecast at 1,186 MBOE/d.</p></li><li><p>Oil production is projected to be between 595 and 616 Mb/d, with Goldman Sachs estimating 632 Mb/d and the consensus at 641 Mb/d.</p></li><li><p>Pre-tax chemical income is anticipated to be approximately $415 million [$391 million according to Goldman Sachs];</p></li><li><p>Pre-tax midstream and marketing income is anticipated to be -$50 million in the midrange [-$79 million according to Goldman Sachs]</p></li></ul></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><ul><li><p>Total production guidance is set at 1,170 to 1,220 MBOE/d, compared to the previous range of 1,150 to 1,210 MBOE/d. Goldman Sachs estimates it at 1,182 MBOE/d, while the consensus forecast is 1,188 MBOE/d.</p></li><li><p>Oil production is projected to be between 618 and 644 Mb/d, compared to the previous range of 610 to 641 Mb/d. Goldman Sachs estimates it at 628 Mb/d, and the consensus is 642 Mb/d.</p></li><li><p>The capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $5.4-$6.2 billion.</p></li><li><p>Pre-tax chemical income is expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, with Goldman Sachs estimating it at $1.5 billion.</p></li><li><p>Pre-tax income for the midstream and marketing segment remains unchanged at -$100 million to +$100 million [Goldman anticipates -$37 million].</p></li></ul></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: Author&#39;s work, based on OXY&#39;s data and Goldman Sachs [proprietary source]</p><p>As you can see, Goldman Sachs analysts see a much bleaker future for OXY than the management articulates to the market. You&#39;d think that the bank would be bearish. But we see an opposite picture:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e101d52e61ddb0e16c43e9cc04b7d2\" alt=\"GS [May 10, 2023], proprietary source\" title=\"GS [May 10, 2023], proprietary source\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/><span>GS [May 10, 2023], proprietary source</span></p><p>Even with an EBITDA decline of ~30% in FY2023 [YoY], Goldman sets a 12-month price target of $77 per share, which gives OXY an upside potential of ~32.2% over the next 6 months or so as of the last close. That&#39;s a huge upside, in my opinion.</p><p>Despite some weaknesses during Q1, OXY demonstrated some improvements in its financial position, as far as I see it. Its total debt/capitalization ratio decreased from 52.2% to 41.8% compared to the previous year; the total debt decreased from $27.202 billion to $20.805 billion, primarily resulting from the Anadarko acquisition. Short-term borrowings stood at $565.0 million at the end of the quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b276a7fb21fdc4edaa150d27bcaecca\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Before Q1, OXY was a confident leader in terms of FCF returns, which I mentioned in the last article. Now we see that FCF per share has dropped a bit, but still has an edge over the other peers:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c8cc01d324389ba6cd7118c2ede151\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>At the same time, OXY still far outperforms its peers based on the TTM metric - the FCF yield displayed by YCharts. As I suggested earlier, this may have been why Warren Buffett chose OXY when he was looking for a sufficiently liquid company with high-quality management to invest his money in.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57d9cc8a72297c9fc3bdbdf3d5e08b1\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>OXY concentrates its development efforts on the high-yield core areas of the Permian Basin and parts of the Middle East. As I&#39;ve written in previous articles, these areas are the most promising and profitable when it comes to increasing production with high-profit margins.</p><p>We also know that Occidental plans to limit its capital spending on low-carbon initiatives to $600 million this year. Hollub highlighted the current lack of external funding for additional direct air capture [DAC] plants beyond the one being built in Texas. Hollub stated that Occidental&#39;s production would recover throughout the year following maintenance-related stoppages concentrated in Q1. The company intends to continue repurchasing preferred stock but requires an oil price of $75 per barrel to do so.</p><p>And the relative stability of the oil price seems to be more obvious at the moment than it was about a month ago. One of the reasons for this was the news that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [SPR] could be replenished as early as June, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said on May 11, 2023. Earlier the SPR repurchases were expected to begin in Q4 FY2023 after completing maintenance on storage sites in Texas and Louisiana. In the meantime, the administration has been depleting the SPR over the past six weeks, ZeroHedge reports:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d62b7a6ffb7357683880f82b50c467\" alt=\"ZeroHedge [May 12, 2023], a proprietary source\" title=\"ZeroHedge [May 12, 2023], a proprietary source\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"455\"/><span>ZeroHedge [May 12, 2023], a proprietary source</span></p><p>Even without the upcoming SPR replenishment, oil prices continue to hold above $70/b - and this is despite recession expectations [which I support] being near historic highs.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff30b1858692fede078d4687a7fb0957\" alt=\"BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary source\" title=\"BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary source\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\"/><span>BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary source</span></p><p><em>What happens if these expectations fall due to an actual recession or a soft landing?</em> These are slightly different scenarios, but given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the reluctance of the Saudi&#39;s to repeat the mistakes of Covid-19, I expect oil prices to recover quickly and continue to rise higher. It&#39;s not yet priced in by the positioning of the market&#39;s participants, as far as I see:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5017a7bbc50939f7186101a4f91eae32\" alt=\"BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary source\" title=\"BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary source\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/><span>BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary source</span></p><p>As we know, long-term investors like Buffett use temporary difficulties to outperform the market over the long term, not the short term. And the systematic underinvestment in the industry that continues to this day suggests that quality oil companies like OXY will thrive in the long run and reward their shareholders either through buybacks or dividends. The most important thing is strong FCF, and that still puts OXY in the best position among other O&amp;G large-caps.</p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>Of course, OXY&#39;s performance is heavily influenced by fluctuations in oil prices, which can result in significant volatility in stock prices, earnings, and cash flow, similar to its industry peers. This risk is unavoidable. It&#39;s also important to note that the company does not have substantial production hedges in place to mitigate this risk. Additionally, OXY investors are exposed to trends in global economic growth and interest rates, which can further impact the company&#39;s financial performance.</p><p>Another risk is the company&#39;s debt. As an Argus Research analyst wrote in his May 17, 2023 note [proprietary source], while profits at most E&amp;P companies are benefiting from increased demand, Argus believes that low debt is prudent in a rising interest rate environment and that Occidental&#39;s current 41% leverage ratio is too high. They also believe that the liquefied natural gas and offshore assets acquired from Anadarko aren&#39;t a good strategic fit for Occidental and that it&#39;ll take more time to achieve sustainable revenue and earnings growth from these assets.</p><p>However, despite the significant risks outlined above, I believe that OXY will continue to enjoy the support of Warren Buffett&#39;s dip-buying activities going forward, as the company remains one of the best FCF generators of its size despite all the headwinds.</p><p>Currently, OXY&#39;s stock is valued at 12 times FY2023 earnings, and the projected year-over-year EPS decline of nearly -48% seems too pessimistic to me. The company will likely continue to reduce the number of shares outstanding, and thus its EPS should remain more stable than price-in if oil prices remain at current levels or even fall a bit further. I don&#39;t expect a significant drop in the oil price though - the many recession expectations failed to drop the price, and now that those expectations are falling off their peak levels [with or without an actual recession], the downward trend seems limited.</p><p>I reiterate my previous Buy rating on OXY stock and support Goldman&#39;s target of $77 per share.</p><p><em>Thank you for reading! Please, let me know what you think in the comment section below!</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Occidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Buys Again, So Should You?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOccidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Buys Again, So Should You?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-19 20:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4605976-occidental-petroleum-warren-buffett-buys-again-so-should-you><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWarren Buffett's recent purchases of OXY prove he's a good market timer, as his buys coincided with the OXY stock reaching its supply zone.Despite some weaknesses during Q1, OXY demonstrated ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4605976-occidental-petroleum-warren-buffett-buys-again-so-should-you\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","OXY":"西方石油","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4605976-occidental-petroleum-warren-buffett-buys-again-so-should-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2336702514","content_text":"SummaryWarren Buffett's recent purchases of OXY prove he's a good market timer, as his buys coincided with the OXY stock reaching its supply zone.Despite some weaknesses during Q1, OXY demonstrated some improvements in its financial position, as far as I see it.OXY's superior FCF yield [TTM] could be a key factor that attracted Warren Buffett to invest in OXY, seeking a liquid company with strong management.Currently, OXY's stock is valued at 12 times FY2023 earnings, and the projected year-over-year EPS decline of nearly -48% seems too pessimistic to me.I reiterate my previous Buy rating on OXY stock and support Goldman's target of $77 per share.Paul MorigiIntro & ThesisI've been covering the stock of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) here on Seeking Alpha since early October 2022, and that time coincided with a fairly difficult period of falling energy commodity prices, so most major oil and gas companies experienced a rather difficult period of increased volatility.Data by YChartsThe increased volatility hasn't bypassed OXY. However, the recent turbulence in the stock's price has provided many savvy investors with an excellent opportunity to increase their allocation. Just a few hours ago, it was revealed that Warren Buffett purchased an additional $200 million [or ~ 3.46 million shares] in OXY stock from May 16-18, 2023, according to the recent SEC filing.SEC, author's notesIn total, Berkshire now owns more than 217.3 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, valued at approximately $12.7 billion. Additionally, Berkshire holds around $9.5 billion worth of Occidental preferred stock, which carries an 8% annual dividend, and has warrants to purchase $5 billion worth of Occidental common shares for $59.62 per share.These purchases clearly show that Warren Buffett isn't only a great value investor - he's also a good market timer, as his recent purchases coincided with the OXY stock reaching its supply zone on the price chart:TrendSpider Software, author's notesAs in my last article on OXY from March 2023, I still see quite favorable long-term prospects for the company, and the way Warren Buffett is behaving toward the stock only indirectly confirms my conclusions. In fact, there are some fundamental reasons for retail investors to follow Mr. Buffett. Let's look at them together.What Are The Reasons To Follow Buffett's Buys?It's been a long time since last March and the company managed to report for Q1 FY2023 [May 9, 2023] - let's first take a quick look at the operational and financial results.OXY's first-quarter results showed adjusted EPS and cash flow from operations [CFO] of $1.09 billion and $3.15 billion, respectively. This missed the consensus forecast of $1.24 per share and $3.12 billion in CFO, according to FactSet data [proprietary source]. The underperformance was primarily attributed to the midstream business and non-cash adjustments related to taxes and other factors. Capital expenditures in the first quarter were $1.46 billion, slightly deviating from the consensus estimate of $1.49 billion. Free cash flow for the quarter was $1.7 billion. Of note, OXY repurchased $752 million of common stock and redeemed $647 million of preferred stock.Lower earnings were primarily due to decreased prices for crude oil (-19% YoY), natural gas liquids (-38%), and natural gas (-28%). However, higher production and reduced interest expense partially offset this decline. Revenue also decreased by 14% compared to the previous year, reaching $7.225 billion, falling short of the consensus forecast of $7.617 billion.In the Oil and Gas division, the pretax net profit for Q1 2023 was $1.640 billion, down from $2.898 billion in the previous year. This decline was mainly a result of lower realized prices for commodities. Average daily production increased by nearly 13% to 1,220 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), driven by higher international production and strength in the Permian, Rocky Mountain, and Gulf of Mexico regions.For the Chemicals division [OxyChem], pretax earnings in the first quarter dropped by 30% compared to the prior year, amounting to $472 million. This decline was attributed to lower polyvinyl prices, reduced volume in most product lines, and narrower margins due to weaker chemical pricing. On a positive note, the division benefited from lower raw material costs.The Midstream and Marketing segment reported a pretax profit of $2 million in Q1 2023, in contrast to a pretax loss of $50 million in the same quarter of the previous year. This shift to profitability was primarily driven by the favorable timing impact of crude oil sales and improved gas margins.Management has provided guidance numbers for the second quarter and full year 2023 production and financials - I feel it necessary to share with you not only the bare numbers but also how Goldman Sachs analysts evaluate the management's forecasts in its recently published [May 10, 2023] note on OXY's Q1 results:Q2 FY2023Full-year 2023Total production is expected to range from 1,156 to 1,196 MBOE/d, with Goldman Sachs estimating it at 1,183 MBOE/d and the consensus forecast at 1,186 MBOE/d.Oil production is projected to be between 595 and 616 Mb/d, with Goldman Sachs estimating 632 Mb/d and the consensus at 641 Mb/d.Pre-tax chemical income is anticipated to be approximately $415 million [$391 million according to Goldman Sachs];Pre-tax midstream and marketing income is anticipated to be -$50 million in the midrange [-$79 million according to Goldman Sachs]Total production guidance is set at 1,170 to 1,220 MBOE/d, compared to the previous range of 1,150 to 1,210 MBOE/d. Goldman Sachs estimates it at 1,182 MBOE/d, while the consensus forecast is 1,188 MBOE/d.Oil production is projected to be between 618 and 644 Mb/d, compared to the previous range of 610 to 641 Mb/d. Goldman Sachs estimates it at 628 Mb/d, and the consensus is 642 Mb/d.The capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $5.4-$6.2 billion.Pre-tax chemical income is expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, with Goldman Sachs estimating it at $1.5 billion.Pre-tax income for the midstream and marketing segment remains unchanged at -$100 million to +$100 million [Goldman anticipates -$37 million].Source: Author's work, based on OXY's data and Goldman Sachs [proprietary source]As you can see, Goldman Sachs analysts see a much bleaker future for OXY than the management articulates to the market. You'd think that the bank would be bearish. But we see an opposite picture:GS [May 10, 2023], proprietary sourceEven with an EBITDA decline of ~30% in FY2023 [YoY], Goldman sets a 12-month price target of $77 per share, which gives OXY an upside potential of ~32.2% over the next 6 months or so as of the last close. That's a huge upside, in my opinion.Despite some weaknesses during Q1, OXY demonstrated some improvements in its financial position, as far as I see it. Its total debt/capitalization ratio decreased from 52.2% to 41.8% compared to the previous year; the total debt decreased from $27.202 billion to $20.805 billion, primarily resulting from the Anadarko acquisition. Short-term borrowings stood at $565.0 million at the end of the quarter.Data by YChartsBefore Q1, OXY was a confident leader in terms of FCF returns, which I mentioned in the last article. Now we see that FCF per share has dropped a bit, but still has an edge over the other peers:Data by YChartsAt the same time, OXY still far outperforms its peers based on the TTM metric - the FCF yield displayed by YCharts. As I suggested earlier, this may have been why Warren Buffett chose OXY when he was looking for a sufficiently liquid company with high-quality management to invest his money in.Data by YChartsOXY concentrates its development efforts on the high-yield core areas of the Permian Basin and parts of the Middle East. As I've written in previous articles, these areas are the most promising and profitable when it comes to increasing production with high-profit margins.We also know that Occidental plans to limit its capital spending on low-carbon initiatives to $600 million this year. Hollub highlighted the current lack of external funding for additional direct air capture [DAC] plants beyond the one being built in Texas. Hollub stated that Occidental's production would recover throughout the year following maintenance-related stoppages concentrated in Q1. The company intends to continue repurchasing preferred stock but requires an oil price of $75 per barrel to do so.And the relative stability of the oil price seems to be more obvious at the moment than it was about a month ago. One of the reasons for this was the news that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [SPR] could be replenished as early as June, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said on May 11, 2023. Earlier the SPR repurchases were expected to begin in Q4 FY2023 after completing maintenance on storage sites in Texas and Louisiana. In the meantime, the administration has been depleting the SPR over the past six weeks, ZeroHedge reports:ZeroHedge [May 12, 2023], a proprietary sourceEven without the upcoming SPR replenishment, oil prices continue to hold above $70/b - and this is despite recession expectations [which I support] being near historic highs.BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary sourceWhat happens if these expectations fall due to an actual recession or a soft landing? These are slightly different scenarios, but given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the reluctance of the Saudi's to repeat the mistakes of Covid-19, I expect oil prices to recover quickly and continue to rise higher. It's not yet priced in by the positioning of the market's participants, as far as I see:BofA [May 16, 2023], a proprietary sourceAs we know, long-term investors like Buffett use temporary difficulties to outperform the market over the long term, not the short term. And the systematic underinvestment in the industry that continues to this day suggests that quality oil companies like OXY will thrive in the long run and reward their shareholders either through buybacks or dividends. The most important thing is strong FCF, and that still puts OXY in the best position among other O&G large-caps.The VerdictOf course, OXY's performance is heavily influenced by fluctuations in oil prices, which can result in significant volatility in stock prices, earnings, and cash flow, similar to its industry peers. This risk is unavoidable. It's also important to note that the company does not have substantial production hedges in place to mitigate this risk. Additionally, OXY investors are exposed to trends in global economic growth and interest rates, which can further impact the company's financial performance.Another risk is the company's debt. As an Argus Research analyst wrote in his May 17, 2023 note [proprietary source], while profits at most E&P companies are benefiting from increased demand, Argus believes that low debt is prudent in a rising interest rate environment and that Occidental's current 41% leverage ratio is too high. They also believe that the liquefied natural gas and offshore assets acquired from Anadarko aren't a good strategic fit for Occidental and that it'll take more time to achieve sustainable revenue and earnings growth from these assets.However, despite the significant risks outlined above, I believe that OXY will continue to enjoy the support of Warren Buffett's dip-buying activities going forward, as the company remains one of the best FCF generators of its size despite all the headwinds.Currently, OXY's stock is valued at 12 times FY2023 earnings, and the projected year-over-year EPS decline of nearly -48% seems too pessimistic to me. The company will likely continue to reduce the number of shares outstanding, and thus its EPS should remain more stable than price-in if oil prices remain at current levels or even fall a bit further. I don't expect a significant drop in the oil price though - the many recession expectations failed to drop the price, and now that those expectations are falling off their peak levels [with or without an actual recession], the downward trend seems limited.I reiterate my previous Buy rating on OXY stock and support Goldman's target of $77 per share.Thank you for reading! Please, let me know what you think in the comment section below!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970512357,"gmtCreate":1684677921580,"gmtModify":1684677925936,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's a good read if any of you still in EV theme!&nbsp;","listText":"It's a good read if any of you still in EV theme!&nbsp;","text":"It's a good read if any of you still in EV theme!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970512357","repostId":"2336472595","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2336472595","pubTimestamp":1684541965,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2336472595?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-20 08:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Prepare For A Macroeconomic Storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2336472595","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Investment ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) just had its 2023 annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e7c34e3a788ee36136caea7db71a2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"506\"/></p><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) just had its 2023 annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, and the stock is up about 5% since then. More to the point, Tesla stock is up 42.62% YTD, reflecting positive investor sentiment, perhaps following some statements by CEO Elon Musk that he is open to media advertising and that he has found a new CEO for Twitter.</p><p>Still, we think market participants have overlooked some of Elon Musk&#39;s comments about the macroeconomic environment, where we find Tesla highly suspect for a macroeconomic blast. In this article, we explore why a macroeconomic storm is potentially imminent, and why investors may want to be cautious.</p><h2>An Interest Rate Storm</h2><p>In one of our previous articles, we warned investors about a potential &#34;interest rate storm&#34; that appeared on the horizon, and now seems to have arrived. Elon Musk also touched on this subject, several times during the annual shareholder meeting:</p><blockquote>Interest rates have a very big effect on the affordability of cars. The vast majority of people buy cars based on the monthly payment, so it&#39;s like &#34;how much is the monthly payment?&#34; And it&#39;s not a question of value for money, it&#39;s just do they actually have enough money, can they afford it?</blockquote><p>And so, in the article, we looked at where auto loan rates are headed, also as a function of where short-term interest rates are now. Because, over the past 40 years, interest rates have generally been a tailwind as they had fallen to all-time lows. In 2016, for example, the average interest rate on the most common loan (72-month) touched nearly 4%. Currently, however, that figure is more like 7-8%.</p><p>Short-term interest rates are now at the same level as they were in 2007, when interest rates on auto loans were around 8%, which we will use in our example.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9461b3c3dfa849e905f86a8030838e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve (FRED)</p><p></p><p>The monthly payment may not have increased that much for, say, a popular Model Y long-range, but it adds up over several years. Consumers will end up spending $6228 more if they finance at 8%, compared to the 4.5% we saw in 2021 and during the previous decade of near-0 rates.</p><p>But in terms of affordability, it also plays a big role. As a rule of thumb for affordability, it is common knowledge that car payments should not exceed 15% of monthly take-home pay. With an $828 payment, it becomes affordable at a monthly income of over $5520, and at $914 you would be expected to earn over $6093.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376b398f34a8495da6be989662404ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\"/></p><p>Bankrate</p><p></p><p>And when sold to the masses, a 10% increase in income needed to afford the same car can cut into demand faster than you might expect. Not only that, but the debt-to-income ratio plays a role in financing a car, along with the bank&#39;s general lending standards.</p><p>As mortgage rates have also risen, the amount of total monthly debt people owes on a higher-rate financed property, or higher interest charges on credit cards, can also impair people&#39;s ability to finance a car at all. If the debt-to-income ratio is too high, banks are generally unwilling to finance. But perhaps more importantly in the current environment, any undue pressure on banks in general could curtail their willingness to expand their portfolio of auto loans. And with multiple banks like First Republic Bank (OTCPK:FRCB) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVBO\">SVB Financial Group</a> (OTC:SIVBQ) going bankrupt six ways to Sunday, banks are tightening credit for auto loans significantly. Here&#39;s what Elon Musk had to say about this:</p><blockquote>As interest rates increase, and credit tightens, like it&#39;s safe to say that these various banks that have died are probably somewhat distracted from handing out auto loans. If you&#39;re on the way to the cemetery, increasing their auto loan portfolio is not the first thing on their mind.</blockquote><p>And when you couple this with data recently released by the Federal Reserve, it does become very clear that banks are tightening their lending standards loan size portfolio for auto loans tremendously, the strictest in recent history, with the exception being 2020.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10c31d30ace91b57b0ef211ed08d6ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve (FRED)</p><p></p><h2>Demand Is A Concern</h2><p>Another risk we evaluate is Tesla&#39;s ambiguity when it comes to pricing. In 2021, at a time when cars were in short-supply and trading well above MSRP, Tesla could exert tremendous leverage and continually raise prices.</p><p>We can also see this in Tesla&#39;s used car price data, which saw a huge increase in 2021 and recently collapsed, along with Tesla&#39;s gross margins. In Q1 2022, Tesla reached record gross margins of 29.1%, and it is right now standing at 19.3% in Q1. Even if we take Model Y, for example, the price decline in Q2 continued, with little improvement in sight.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6261301bc4dbbfc1caf7df7eb37d7f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>CarGurus</p><p></p><p>It is also important to note that Tesla first cut prices sharply in the middle of the first quarter, and so we most likely have not yet seen a spike in margin pressure, as we should see the full effect of the price cuts in the second quarter. And that&#39;s without taking into account further price declines in the coming month. Used car prices for Model Y went from $73,241 at the peak to $50,302 now, which is a huge change of -31.32%.</p><p>Elon Musk also seemed rather reluctant to talk about demand during the Q1 call, telling investors mainly that:</p><blockquote>I think the overall thing we can say is that orders are in excess of production. (Q1 Earnings Call.)</blockquote><p>Which is perhaps a bit of a cop-out, as orders are likely to be in excess of production if Tesla merely keeps cutting prices. It also seems that Elon is fully prepared to cut prices, which may affect margins in order to still meet volume targets and monetize the fleet with FSD Beta later on, which we think is a risky strategy to say the least:</p><blockquote>We&#39;ve taken a view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin. However, we expect our vehicles, over time, will be able to generate significant profit through autonomy. So we do believe we&#39;re like laying the groundwork here, and then it&#39;s better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin, and subsequently, harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy.</blockquote><p>If we actually start looking at the inventory for hints of future potential price cuts, the stock on some models seems to be high in certain regions. Especially in Europe, where the Model Y is especially in high inventory, and the Model 3 which has also seen inventory growth in the United States.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec676f31493f5bfa3c5fde5f8a2c1de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Tesla Info</p><p></p><p>In China, deliveries and production do seem to be going according to plan and are arguably in line with expectations, although they lag a bit behind BYD in the month of April.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc14f183627dfe763a09f820c2e5180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p>CnEVPost</p><p></p><p>Tesla cut prices in China mainly late last year/first quarter of this year, and has kept prices strong since then, which means we expect less impact in terms of margins for China for the second quarter unless prices get cut again. For example, the standard Model Y currently sells in China for just RMB 263,900, or $37,592.</p><p>Overall, Tesla is not the only one with big ambitions to capture the EV car market in China, as BYD has set a goal of selling 3.6 million EVs and PHEVs by 2023.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb7d80796c153d32a9ef7d923c7ae47\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p>CnEVPost</p><p></p><h2>The Macro Storm</h2><p>And so, in terms of what the next 12 months look like, we think there are immense macroeconomic risks ahead for Tesla. Elon Musk believes that, too, as he has hinted on Twitter and in a recent interview with CNBC, in which he indicated that the Fed is operating with &#34;too much latency.&#34;</p><p>This is evidenced by the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates, which is now over -166 bp, more than in 2008 and the most since the 1980s. This essentially screams that there are short- to medium-term economic problems ahead.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec3ed7e7a67bb82826001f35c8e87fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve (FRED)</p><p></p><p>Tesla is expected by Elon Musk himself and Wall Street to achieve $100.27 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2023. Tesla&#39;s gross margins have historically been relatively close to those of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) &amp; BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) until 2021, when Tesla&#39;s gross margins varied widely.</p><p>However, these gross margins have currently returned to average, and one may wonder if this was just temporary pricing power rather than permanent. We believe this may be due to extremely favorable macroeconomic conditions combined with little competition on the EV front and less supply chain disruption due to Tesla&#39;s high vertical integration.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b320e76a22da0dd06b5b53b63a9b8c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p></p><p>Regardless, we stand by our conclusion that we think gross margins in Q2 and probably in FY2023 will be lower than Q1 figures, because prices were not significantly reduced until midway through Q1 and smaller reductions occurred in Q2.</p><p>Keeping with Q1 margins, and taking into account a gross margin of about 19%, we think Tesla will bring in $19 billion in gross revenue. Operating expenses, despite the scale-up, have remained flat at about $1.85 billion per quarter, and we think that will continue. In other words, we think operating income for fiscal year 2023 is expected to be about $11.60 billion. This would be in line with the 12-month operating income trend, which has recently remained flat.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae019201965fd137bf33cad799349f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p></p><p>This trend, perhaps worryingly, is also evident based on free cash flow. Over the past 12 months, free cash flow was $5.78 billion (CFO-CapEx). However, if we were to measure actual profitability and take into account stock-based compensation, we would be left with about $4.22 billion on a TTM basis. This contrasts with the $560.65BN market capitalization, so downside risk protection is questionable at 132x Adjusted FCF (TTM).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf1ed54577d35c60c45d7e1bbe168c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p></p><p>Tesla&#39;s Chinese counterpart, BYD for example, also got hit in terms of Free Cash Flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) recently, but still brought in $3.93BN worth of FCF despite headwinds on a TTM basis. Unlike Tesla, however, it is currently valued at $101.19BN or 25.75x TTM Free Cash Flow. At BYD&#39;s valuation, Tesla would be trading at a $148.83BN market cap, not even adjusting for stock-based compensation.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1dc8c762b8026406f90d8ac5fa3d50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p></p><p>Even if we try to make the valuation work from an EBIT perspective, we don&#39;t see how Tesla would now trade well below intrinsic value. As we said earlier, we think operating income comes out to $11.60 billion for FY2023.</p><p>From a top-line perspective, as we also indicated earlier, it is expected to come out somewhere at $100BN, or a 23% increase for 2023. Wall Street Estimates expect 29.21% growth for 2024, and revenue growth in the years after that will also slow to low double digits. If we give Tesla the benefit of the doubt, at a PEG ratio of 1, or a ratio of 30x Operating Income at 30% growth, we would arrive at a market cap of $348BN.</p><p>That would be closer to the bottom from early this year, around $110. At the current $560.65BN market cap and a P/FCF multiple of 20x, we expect Tesla to have to put in 28.03BN of FCF on an annualized basis, which is a far cry from its current $5.78BN of TTM FCF.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4257be0f8cb47f5c2dd3aa592db76\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>The main problem, we currently have with Tesla is that it seems the company is increasing the number of cars at the expense of margin. To what extent this is due to macroeconomic pressures, competition, or market saturation in general may be a bit too early to guess. It seems to us that a next-generation platform is indeed needed at a lower MSRP to sell both volume and margin, but there is currently renewed speculation about what the margins will be.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bdee5f441592ca23868c1b65b1f8600\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p></p><p>Even if we were to ignore the $5.78BN of FCF on a TTM basis, and take the highest FCF generated by Tesla on a TTM basis, which was $8.91BN last year at a 30x P/FCF multiple, we would only end up with $267.3BN or $84.32 per share.</p><h2>The Ace Of Spades</h2><p>Finally, just because we think bottom-line performance is unlikely to be driven by hardware sales does not mean Elon Musk cannot have a couple of aces up his sleeves.</p><p>Tesla FSD could potentially unlock an immense amount of value if their fleet could be deployed as a robotaxi fleet. Tesla&#39;s FSD is getting close to perfection, although &#34;close enough&#34; is not nearly enough when it comes to self-driving. And it remains to be seen when/if they would actually be allowed to deploy their FSD full scale, only using cameras as Elon Musk himself would like. Needless to say, it won&#39;t be there tomorrow, or maybe even in the next few years. Other competitors such as Waymo of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) and Cruise of General Motors (GM), are already active, although they use other equipment such as Radar/ Lidar, sensors and pre-mapped locations.</p><p>There are also opportunities such as using this data collected through FSD and applying their AI with their Optimus robot, which could create an incredible future mass-market product, although it won&#39;t be there tomorrow, either. The same goes for the application of their AI expertise for generative AI and other software products. We think it&#39;s too much speculation for now. Insiders have not been shy about selling lately, either: Elon&#39;s brother Kimbal exercised options and also sold $19.5M worth of shares.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee2a1e0e98d286e913245dc2a5df57c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/></p><p>OpenInsider</p><p></p><p>Technically, everything also seems to point in the direction of downward movement. We currently see Tesla trading in a downward channel, heading towards the previous lows from earlier this year around $100.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb132144851563517261930f7fe93d0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Tradingview, Wright&#39;s Research</p><p></p><p>Also on a Fibonacci retracement, it appears that the stock hit the lower limit of the trading range earlier this year at about $105, and rebounded strongly from this support level and was rejected at the upper limit of the 50% level at $214. Our technical analysis in line with the fundamentals and macroeconomic view leads us to believe that Tesla is likely headed for its 2023 lows, and could perhaps be considered a buy at such levels.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e87e97aaac3aa16afef0797a089001\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Tradingview, Wright&#39;s Research</p><p></p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>While Tesla offers very bright future prospects in automation, AI and robotics, given the fundamental and macroeconomic outlook, it remains too speculative for us to touch.</p><p>Margins have plummeted, prices have been cut, and banks are tightening credit en masse. Therefore, we think Tesla is heading into the perfect storm in the second quarter. Until Tesla, Inc. again shows margin improvements while increasing sales, or trades at lower multiples closer to its industry peers, we keep our &#34;hold&#34; rating, as we think Tesla&#39;s fair value/ intrinsic value is closer to its previous lows at $100.</p><p>Other companies such as BYD, which is extremely similar in terms of free cash flow and growth rates, are trading at less than 1/5 of Tesla&#39;s current market capitalization. The next 12 months will be very difficult for Tesla, Inc., and Elon Musk has not been shy about announcing this to shareholders. Yet the stock is up more than 42% YTD, which does not reflect this sentiment. As Elon Musk said at the annual shareholder meeting:</p><blockquote>This is going to be a challenging 12 months, I sort of want to be realistic about it that Tesla is not immune to the global economic environment. I expect things to be just at a macroeconomic level difficult for at least the next 12 months. Like, Tesla will get through it, and we&#39;ll do well and I think we&#39;ll see a lot of companies go bankrupt. I want to make sure this is not just the &#34;good news parade.&#34;</blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Prepare For A Macroeconomic Storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Prepare For A Macroeconomic Storm\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-20 08:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606058-tesla-stock-prepare-for-macroeconomic-storm><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) just had its 2023 annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, and the stock is up about 5% since then. More to the point, Tesla stock is up 42.62% YTD, reflecting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606058-tesla-stock-prepare-for-macroeconomic-storm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4523":"印度概念","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","FRCB":"第一共和银行","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","TM":"丰田汽车","TTM":"塔塔汽车","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","GM":"通用汽车","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606058-tesla-stock-prepare-for-macroeconomic-storm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2336472595","content_text":"Investment ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) just had its 2023 annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, and the stock is up about 5% since then. More to the point, Tesla stock is up 42.62% YTD, reflecting positive investor sentiment, perhaps following some statements by CEO Elon Musk that he is open to media advertising and that he has found a new CEO for Twitter.Still, we think market participants have overlooked some of Elon Musk's comments about the macroeconomic environment, where we find Tesla highly suspect for a macroeconomic blast. In this article, we explore why a macroeconomic storm is potentially imminent, and why investors may want to be cautious.An Interest Rate StormIn one of our previous articles, we warned investors about a potential \"interest rate storm\" that appeared on the horizon, and now seems to have arrived. Elon Musk also touched on this subject, several times during the annual shareholder meeting:Interest rates have a very big effect on the affordability of cars. The vast majority of people buy cars based on the monthly payment, so it's like \"how much is the monthly payment?\" And it's not a question of value for money, it's just do they actually have enough money, can they afford it?And so, in the article, we looked at where auto loan rates are headed, also as a function of where short-term interest rates are now. Because, over the past 40 years, interest rates have generally been a tailwind as they had fallen to all-time lows. In 2016, for example, the average interest rate on the most common loan (72-month) touched nearly 4%. Currently, however, that figure is more like 7-8%.Short-term interest rates are now at the same level as they were in 2007, when interest rates on auto loans were around 8%, which we will use in our example.Federal Reserve (FRED)The monthly payment may not have increased that much for, say, a popular Model Y long-range, but it adds up over several years. Consumers will end up spending $6228 more if they finance at 8%, compared to the 4.5% we saw in 2021 and during the previous decade of near-0 rates.But in terms of affordability, it also plays a big role. As a rule of thumb for affordability, it is common knowledge that car payments should not exceed 15% of monthly take-home pay. With an $828 payment, it becomes affordable at a monthly income of over $5520, and at $914 you would be expected to earn over $6093.BankrateAnd when sold to the masses, a 10% increase in income needed to afford the same car can cut into demand faster than you might expect. Not only that, but the debt-to-income ratio plays a role in financing a car, along with the bank's general lending standards.As mortgage rates have also risen, the amount of total monthly debt people owes on a higher-rate financed property, or higher interest charges on credit cards, can also impair people's ability to finance a car at all. If the debt-to-income ratio is too high, banks are generally unwilling to finance. But perhaps more importantly in the current environment, any undue pressure on banks in general could curtail their willingness to expand their portfolio of auto loans. And with multiple banks like First Republic Bank (OTCPK:FRCB) and SVB Financial Group (OTC:SIVBQ) going bankrupt six ways to Sunday, banks are tightening credit for auto loans significantly. Here's what Elon Musk had to say about this:As interest rates increase, and credit tightens, like it's safe to say that these various banks that have died are probably somewhat distracted from handing out auto loans. If you're on the way to the cemetery, increasing their auto loan portfolio is not the first thing on their mind.And when you couple this with data recently released by the Federal Reserve, it does become very clear that banks are tightening their lending standards loan size portfolio for auto loans tremendously, the strictest in recent history, with the exception being 2020.Federal Reserve (FRED)Demand Is A ConcernAnother risk we evaluate is Tesla's ambiguity when it comes to pricing. In 2021, at a time when cars were in short-supply and trading well above MSRP, Tesla could exert tremendous leverage and continually raise prices.We can also see this in Tesla's used car price data, which saw a huge increase in 2021 and recently collapsed, along with Tesla's gross margins. In Q1 2022, Tesla reached record gross margins of 29.1%, and it is right now standing at 19.3% in Q1. Even if we take Model Y, for example, the price decline in Q2 continued, with little improvement in sight.CarGurusIt is also important to note that Tesla first cut prices sharply in the middle of the first quarter, and so we most likely have not yet seen a spike in margin pressure, as we should see the full effect of the price cuts in the second quarter. And that's without taking into account further price declines in the coming month. Used car prices for Model Y went from $73,241 at the peak to $50,302 now, which is a huge change of -31.32%.Elon Musk also seemed rather reluctant to talk about demand during the Q1 call, telling investors mainly that:I think the overall thing we can say is that orders are in excess of production. (Q1 Earnings Call.)Which is perhaps a bit of a cop-out, as orders are likely to be in excess of production if Tesla merely keeps cutting prices. It also seems that Elon is fully prepared to cut prices, which may affect margins in order to still meet volume targets and monetize the fleet with FSD Beta later on, which we think is a risky strategy to say the least:We've taken a view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin. However, we expect our vehicles, over time, will be able to generate significant profit through autonomy. So we do believe we're like laying the groundwork here, and then it's better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin, and subsequently, harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy.If we actually start looking at the inventory for hints of future potential price cuts, the stock on some models seems to be high in certain regions. Especially in Europe, where the Model Y is especially in high inventory, and the Model 3 which has also seen inventory growth in the United States.Tesla InfoIn China, deliveries and production do seem to be going according to plan and are arguably in line with expectations, although they lag a bit behind BYD in the month of April.CnEVPostTesla cut prices in China mainly late last year/first quarter of this year, and has kept prices strong since then, which means we expect less impact in terms of margins for China for the second quarter unless prices get cut again. For example, the standard Model Y currently sells in China for just RMB 263,900, or $37,592.Overall, Tesla is not the only one with big ambitions to capture the EV car market in China, as BYD has set a goal of selling 3.6 million EVs and PHEVs by 2023.CnEVPostThe Macro StormAnd so, in terms of what the next 12 months look like, we think there are immense macroeconomic risks ahead for Tesla. Elon Musk believes that, too, as he has hinted on Twitter and in a recent interview with CNBC, in which he indicated that the Fed is operating with \"too much latency.\"This is evidenced by the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates, which is now over -166 bp, more than in 2008 and the most since the 1980s. This essentially screams that there are short- to medium-term economic problems ahead.Federal Reserve (FRED)Tesla is expected by Elon Musk himself and Wall Street to achieve $100.27 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2023. Tesla's gross margins have historically been relatively close to those of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) & BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) until 2021, when Tesla's gross margins varied widely.However, these gross margins have currently returned to average, and one may wonder if this was just temporary pricing power rather than permanent. We believe this may be due to extremely favorable macroeconomic conditions combined with little competition on the EV front and less supply chain disruption due to Tesla's high vertical integration.TIKR TerminalRegardless, we stand by our conclusion that we think gross margins in Q2 and probably in FY2023 will be lower than Q1 figures, because prices were not significantly reduced until midway through Q1 and smaller reductions occurred in Q2.Keeping with Q1 margins, and taking into account a gross margin of about 19%, we think Tesla will bring in $19 billion in gross revenue. Operating expenses, despite the scale-up, have remained flat at about $1.85 billion per quarter, and we think that will continue. In other words, we think operating income for fiscal year 2023 is expected to be about $11.60 billion. This would be in line with the 12-month operating income trend, which has recently remained flat.TIKR TerminalThis trend, perhaps worryingly, is also evident based on free cash flow. Over the past 12 months, free cash flow was $5.78 billion (CFO-CapEx). However, if we were to measure actual profitability and take into account stock-based compensation, we would be left with about $4.22 billion on a TTM basis. This contrasts with the $560.65BN market capitalization, so downside risk protection is questionable at 132x Adjusted FCF (TTM).TIKR TerminalTesla's Chinese counterpart, BYD for example, also got hit in terms of Free Cash Flow (\"FCF\") recently, but still brought in $3.93BN worth of FCF despite headwinds on a TTM basis. Unlike Tesla, however, it is currently valued at $101.19BN or 25.75x TTM Free Cash Flow. At BYD's valuation, Tesla would be trading at a $148.83BN market cap, not even adjusting for stock-based compensation.TIKR TerminalEven if we try to make the valuation work from an EBIT perspective, we don't see how Tesla would now trade well below intrinsic value. As we said earlier, we think operating income comes out to $11.60 billion for FY2023.From a top-line perspective, as we also indicated earlier, it is expected to come out somewhere at $100BN, or a 23% increase for 2023. Wall Street Estimates expect 29.21% growth for 2024, and revenue growth in the years after that will also slow to low double digits. If we give Tesla the benefit of the doubt, at a PEG ratio of 1, or a ratio of 30x Operating Income at 30% growth, we would arrive at a market cap of $348BN.That would be closer to the bottom from early this year, around $110. At the current $560.65BN market cap and a P/FCF multiple of 20x, we expect Tesla to have to put in 28.03BN of FCF on an annualized basis, which is a far cry from its current $5.78BN of TTM FCF.Data by YChartsThe main problem, we currently have with Tesla is that it seems the company is increasing the number of cars at the expense of margin. To what extent this is due to macroeconomic pressures, competition, or market saturation in general may be a bit too early to guess. It seems to us that a next-generation platform is indeed needed at a lower MSRP to sell both volume and margin, but there is currently renewed speculation about what the margins will be.TIKR TerminalEven if we were to ignore the $5.78BN of FCF on a TTM basis, and take the highest FCF generated by Tesla on a TTM basis, which was $8.91BN last year at a 30x P/FCF multiple, we would only end up with $267.3BN or $84.32 per share.The Ace Of SpadesFinally, just because we think bottom-line performance is unlikely to be driven by hardware sales does not mean Elon Musk cannot have a couple of aces up his sleeves.Tesla FSD could potentially unlock an immense amount of value if their fleet could be deployed as a robotaxi fleet. Tesla's FSD is getting close to perfection, although \"close enough\" is not nearly enough when it comes to self-driving. And it remains to be seen when/if they would actually be allowed to deploy their FSD full scale, only using cameras as Elon Musk himself would like. Needless to say, it won't be there tomorrow, or maybe even in the next few years. Other competitors such as Waymo of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) and Cruise of General Motors (GM), are already active, although they use other equipment such as Radar/ Lidar, sensors and pre-mapped locations.There are also opportunities such as using this data collected through FSD and applying their AI with their Optimus robot, which could create an incredible future mass-market product, although it won't be there tomorrow, either. The same goes for the application of their AI expertise for generative AI and other software products. We think it's too much speculation for now. Insiders have not been shy about selling lately, either: Elon's brother Kimbal exercised options and also sold $19.5M worth of shares.OpenInsiderTechnically, everything also seems to point in the direction of downward movement. We currently see Tesla trading in a downward channel, heading towards the previous lows from earlier this year around $100.Tradingview, Wright's ResearchAlso on a Fibonacci retracement, it appears that the stock hit the lower limit of the trading range earlier this year at about $105, and rebounded strongly from this support level and was rejected at the upper limit of the 50% level at $214. Our technical analysis in line with the fundamentals and macroeconomic view leads us to believe that Tesla is likely headed for its 2023 lows, and could perhaps be considered a buy at such levels.Tradingview, Wright's ResearchThe Bottom LineWhile Tesla offers very bright future prospects in automation, AI and robotics, given the fundamental and macroeconomic outlook, it remains too speculative for us to touch.Margins have plummeted, prices have been cut, and banks are tightening credit en masse. Therefore, we think Tesla is heading into the perfect storm in the second quarter. Until Tesla, Inc. again shows margin improvements while increasing sales, or trades at lower multiples closer to its industry peers, we keep our \"hold\" rating, as we think Tesla's fair value/ intrinsic value is closer to its previous lows at $100.Other companies such as BYD, which is extremely similar in terms of free cash flow and growth rates, are trading at less than 1/5 of Tesla's current market capitalization. The next 12 months will be very difficult for Tesla, Inc., and Elon Musk has not been shy about announcing this to shareholders. Yet the stock is up more than 42% YTD, which does not reflect this sentiment. As Elon Musk said at the annual shareholder meeting:This is going to be a challenging 12 months, I sort of want to be realistic about it that Tesla is not immune to the global economic environment. I expect things to be just at a macroeconomic level difficult for at least the next 12 months. Like, Tesla will get through it, and we'll do well and I think we'll see a lot of companies go bankrupt. I want to make sure this is not just the \"good news parade.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970512024,"gmtCreate":1684677461268,"gmtModify":1684677466600,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If oil is bearish, the whole market is going to crash soon. But I am still in huge dilemma those big companies are still sitting with big piles of money. Anytime they could sbb.&nbsp;","listText":"If oil is bearish, the whole market is going to crash soon. But I am still in huge dilemma those big companies are still sitting with big piles of money. Anytime they could sbb.&nbsp;","text":"If oil is bearish, the whole market is going to crash soon. But I am still in huge dilemma those big companies are still sitting with big piles of money. Anytime they could sbb.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970512024","repostId":"1155020969","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155020969","pubTimestamp":1684631237,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155020969?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-21 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155020969","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011Aggressive positioning risks over-correctio","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011</p></li><li><p>Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatility</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/288ca0a7fca956a53a139ca3b5e9e357\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p>Money managers that trade derivatives linked to oil and fuel prices are about as bearish as they’ve been in more than a decade, suggesting they’re braced for a recession that could cause contracts from crude to jet fuel to take another tumble.</p><p>The trading positions of non-commercial players such as hedge funds are near the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts. And in bets that are perhaps most indicative of recession expectations, speculators’ combined views on diesel and gasoil — fuels that power the economy — are near the most bearish levels since early in the Covid-19 pandemic. </p><p>The gloom over the oil market this year has come from multiple directions, including expectations that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes will provoke a contraction and China’s less-than-booming rebound from its Covid-19 restrictions. Add in the threat of a US default if politicians fail to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility that OPEC+ may not deliver all the output cuts they’ve pledged, and traders have no shortage of bear scenarios to choose from. </p><p>“It’s pretty remarkable to see this type of positioning,” Greg Sharenow, who manages a portfolio focused on energy and commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4818c1786915bb2be9c31b7d080da16\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"/></p><p> To be sure, the investors that make up the non-commercial cohort are a diverse group with a variety of approaches, ranging from hedge funds betting on macro strategies to algorithm-driven traders focused on price momentum and trends. Positioning in gasoil and US diesel ticked slightly higher in the latest week. And commercial traders — those that work for the producers as well as other merchants of crude — aren’t so bearish, with some even reducing hedges against a potential price drop. </p><p>But the extreme extent of the financial traders’ bearishness raises the risk of volatility if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decide to cut production further. That scenario may set off a rush to exit the bets that sends oil prices surging and worsens inflation. </p><p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers, according to a note to clients seen by Bloomberg. By contrast, any big declines in prices aren’t likely to budge positioning much further, the bank forecasts.</p><p>The oil traders aren’t exactly going out on a limb with their recession bets, though. Of the 27 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg in early May, 22 expected the US economy to slip into a contraction over the next year. However, the starting point for the downturn keeps getting pushed back as the robust labor market keeps wages growing and savings accumulated during the pandemic boost Americans’ spending power. </p><p>More broadly, the sentiment among global fund managers deteriorated to the most bearish this year, with 65% of survey participants now expecting a weaker economy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey. </p><p>Meanwhile, underlying physical markets aren’t reflecting the dire state that traders are preparing for. Refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began. Air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply.</p><p>Those trends have oil producers and other industry players pulling back on hedges against a drop. Positions among swap dealers — who are typically net short because they execute hedges for oil producers — are growing less bearish as some drillers buy back their protection against a sudden price decline, market participants said.  </p><p>The International Energy Agency recently hiked its expectations for global oil demand growth this year on China’s post-pandemic rebound, which, despite a strong gain in consumer usage, has failed to live up to optimistic forecasts. That’s because industrial demand has been the central focus for traders, and weakness in manufacturing and trucking has kept them from going long on diesel. </p><p>“Traders are focused on China recovery, specifically if the increase in consumer-led consumption can meaningfully outstrip weakness in industrial demand,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. </p><p>Speculative traders also are hesitant to unwind bearish positions because of the ongoing stalemate in the US debt-ceiling talks. The uncertainty is negative for risk-sensitive assets, including oil, said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at StoneX Group. </p><p>While a reversal of the bearish sentiment doesn’t appear imminent, a continued decline in inventories may help oil beat other asset classes. </p><p>“If you do genuinely believe that we’re in a capital-disciplined and under-investing environment, then when the economy does stabilize, commodities, and oil within that, are likely to outperform over an extended period of time,” Pimco’s Sharenow said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-21 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatilityMoney managers that trade derivatives linked to oil and fuel prices are about as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155020969","content_text":"Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatilityMoney managers that trade derivatives linked to oil and fuel prices are about as bearish as they’ve been in more than a decade, suggesting they’re braced for a recession that could cause contracts from crude to jet fuel to take another tumble.The trading positions of non-commercial players such as hedge funds are near the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts. And in bets that are perhaps most indicative of recession expectations, speculators’ combined views on diesel and gasoil — fuels that power the economy — are near the most bearish levels since early in the Covid-19 pandemic. The gloom over the oil market this year has come from multiple directions, including expectations that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes will provoke a contraction and China’s less-than-booming rebound from its Covid-19 restrictions. Add in the threat of a US default if politicians fail to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility that OPEC+ may not deliver all the output cuts they’ve pledged, and traders have no shortage of bear scenarios to choose from. “It’s pretty remarkable to see this type of positioning,” Greg Sharenow, who manages a portfolio focused on energy and commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview.  To be sure, the investors that make up the non-commercial cohort are a diverse group with a variety of approaches, ranging from hedge funds betting on macro strategies to algorithm-driven traders focused on price momentum and trends. Positioning in gasoil and US diesel ticked slightly higher in the latest week. And commercial traders — those that work for the producers as well as other merchants of crude — aren’t so bearish, with some even reducing hedges against a potential price drop. But the extreme extent of the financial traders’ bearishness raises the risk of volatility if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decide to cut production further. That scenario may set off a rush to exit the bets that sends oil prices surging and worsens inflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers, according to a note to clients seen by Bloomberg. By contrast, any big declines in prices aren’t likely to budge positioning much further, the bank forecasts.The oil traders aren’t exactly going out on a limb with their recession bets, though. Of the 27 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg in early May, 22 expected the US economy to slip into a contraction over the next year. However, the starting point for the downturn keeps getting pushed back as the robust labor market keeps wages growing and savings accumulated during the pandemic boost Americans’ spending power. More broadly, the sentiment among global fund managers deteriorated to the most bearish this year, with 65% of survey participants now expecting a weaker economy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey. Meanwhile, underlying physical markets aren’t reflecting the dire state that traders are preparing for. Refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began. Air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply.Those trends have oil producers and other industry players pulling back on hedges against a drop. Positions among swap dealers — who are typically net short because they execute hedges for oil producers — are growing less bearish as some drillers buy back their protection against a sudden price decline, market participants said.  The International Energy Agency recently hiked its expectations for global oil demand growth this year on China’s post-pandemic rebound, which, despite a strong gain in consumer usage, has failed to live up to optimistic forecasts. That’s because industrial demand has been the central focus for traders, and weakness in manufacturing and trucking has kept them from going long on diesel. “Traders are focused on China recovery, specifically if the increase in consumer-led consumption can meaningfully outstrip weakness in industrial demand,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. Speculative traders also are hesitant to unwind bearish positions because of the ongoing stalemate in the US debt-ceiling talks. The uncertainty is negative for risk-sensitive assets, including oil, said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at StoneX Group. While a reversal of the bearish sentiment doesn’t appear imminent, a continued decline in inventories may help oil beat other asset classes. “If you do genuinely believe that we’re in a capital-disciplined and under-investing environment, then when the economy does stabilize, commodities, and oil within that, are likely to outperform over an extended period of time,” Pimco’s Sharenow said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947416537,"gmtCreate":1683470872730,"gmtModify":1683470877207,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward to $1.50 soon and hopefully the company keep SBB.&nbsp;","listText":"Looking forward to $1.50 soon and hopefully the company keep SBB.&nbsp;","text":"Looking forward to $1.50 soon and hopefully the company keep SBB.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947416537","repostId":"2333212505","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2333212505","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1683263220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2333212505?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-05 13:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Food Empire's Presence in Russia, Vietnam Makes It an Attractive Target -- Market Talk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2333212505","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"0506 GMT - Food Empire Holdings is an attractive target for bigger competitors given its strong pres","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0506 GMT - Food Empire Holdings is an attractive target for bigger competitors given its strong presence in Russia and Vietnam, Maybank says. The stock is trading at 8.6X core FY 2023 P/E, a steep discount despite its strong recent share-price performance versus the valuations of its global peers, analysts Jarick Seet and Eric Ong say in a note. The food-manufacturing company's 1Q net profit after tax is tipped to rise 22% on year to US$11.2 million on strong demand in core markets--Russia and Vietnam, they say. It could also resume share buybacks as it considers itself deeply undervalued and remains confident of its outlook, they say, adding that it might also pay out an interim dividend. Maybank maintains a buy rating and S$1.29 target price on the stock, which was recently unchanged at S$1.00. (monica.gupta@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  May 05, 2023 01:07 ET (05:07 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Food Empire's Presence in Russia, Vietnam Makes It an Attractive Target -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFood Empire's Presence in Russia, Vietnam Makes It an Attractive Target -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-05 13:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0506 GMT - Food Empire Holdings is an attractive target for bigger competitors given its strong presence in Russia and Vietnam, Maybank says. The stock is trading at 8.6X core FY 2023 P/E, a steep discount despite its strong recent share-price performance versus the valuations of its global peers, analysts Jarick Seet and Eric Ong say in a note. The food-manufacturing company's 1Q net profit after tax is tipped to rise 22% on year to US$11.2 million on strong demand in core markets--Russia and Vietnam, they say. It could also resume share buybacks as it considers itself deeply undervalued and remains confident of its outlook, they say, adding that it might also pay out an interim dividend. Maybank maintains a buy rating and S$1.29 target price on the stock, which was recently unchanged at S$1.00. (monica.gupta@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  May 05, 2023 01:07 ET (05:07 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK6509":"食品和饮料股","TGT":"塔吉特","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4114":"综合货品商店","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","F03.SI":"富旺朝","BK6114":"包装食品与肉类","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2333212505","content_text":"0506 GMT - Food Empire Holdings is an attractive target for bigger competitors given its strong presence in Russia and Vietnam, Maybank says. The stock is trading at 8.6X core FY 2023 P/E, a steep discount despite its strong recent share-price performance versus the valuations of its global peers, analysts Jarick Seet and Eric Ong say in a note. The food-manufacturing company's 1Q net profit after tax is tipped to rise 22% on year to US$11.2 million on strong demand in core markets--Russia and Vietnam, they say. It could also resume share buybacks as it considers itself deeply undervalued and remains confident of its outlook, they say, adding that it might also pay out an interim dividend. Maybank maintains a buy rating and S$1.29 target price on the stock, which was recently unchanged at S$1.00. (monica.gupta@wsj.com) \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  May 05, 2023 01:07 ET (05:07 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947416266,"gmtCreate":1683470828756,"gmtModify":1683470832531,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Basically, there are way better company than this. For instance, REITS in SGX are significantly rewarding investor quarterly despite the capital gain.&nbsp;","listText":"Basically, there are way better company than this. For instance, REITS in SGX are significantly rewarding investor quarterly despite the capital gain.&nbsp;","text":"Basically, there are way better company than this. For instance, REITS in SGX are significantly rewarding investor quarterly despite the capital gain.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947416266","repostId":"1101756413","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101756413","pubTimestamp":1676682188,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101756413?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-18 09:03","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Dividend-Paying Singapore Stocks for Young Working Adults","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101756413","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"As the saying goes, you are never too young to start investing.While Warren Buffett reportedly inves","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the saying goes, you are never too young to start investing.</p><p>While Warren Buffett reportedly invested his first dollar at age 11, most of us may be limited by the amount of money we have at that age.</p><p>Hence, it’s not unusual for many to start investing only when they have earned their first pay cheque.</p><p>If you’ve just entered the workforce, your priority will be on growing your pot of savings.</p><p>You should, therefore, select stocks with promising growth prospects.</p><p>However, a dash of dividends is helpful to add a layer of passive income to their earned income.</p><p>Here is a list of four Singapore stocks that not only display promising growth but also pay out a consistent dividend to boot.</p><p><b>iFAST Corporation Limited (SGX: AIY)</b></p><p>iFAST is a financial technology company that runs a platform for the buying and selling of unit trusts, equities, and bonds.</p><p>The group saw its net profit tumble in 2022 as volatile financial markets and several one-off adjustments impacted its financials.</p><p>However, the fintech still saw healthy fund inflows of S$2.1 billion last year with its fixed income division also seeing a surge in subscriptions as bond yields surged.</p><p>iFAST is also counting on its Hong Kong division to be an important growth driver for the group from this year till 2025.</p><p>The division snagged a significant ePension contract that should greatly boost the division’s revenue and net profit once contributions start flowing in from the fourth quarter of this year (4Q 2023).</p><p>An annual dividend of S$0.048 was declared for 2022, similar to the level paid out in 2021.</p><p>Shares of iFAST provide a 0.9% historical dividend yield.</p><p><b>UMS Holdings Limited (SGX: 558)</b></p><p>UMS provides equipment manufacturing and engineering services to the original equipment manufacturers of semiconductors.</p><p>The group reported a strong set of earnings for the first nine months of 2022 (9M 2022).</p><p>Revenue climbed 48% year on year to S$271.4 million while net profit surged by 73% year on year to S$82 million.</p><p>UMS believes that global chip demand should remain fairly strong over the long term, although the industry may be facing a short-term cyclical downturn.</p><p>The semiconductor market is projected to surpass US$1 trillion by 2030, led by a boom in automobiles and data centres.</p><p>UMS is also ramping up its expansion plans with the construction of its Penang factory completed by the end of last year and in preparation for production ramp-up in the middle of 2023.</p><p>An interim dividend of S$0.01 was declared for the third quarter of 2022.</p><p>UMS’ trailing 12-month dividend stood at S$0.05, giving its shares a trailing 12-month dividend yield of 4.5%.</p><p><b>The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)</b></p><p>The Hour Glass, or THG, is a retailer of luxury watches with 50 boutiques in the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p>The group is the official retailer of famous Swiss watch brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet.</p><p>The group reported a strong set of earnings for its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H FY2023).</p><p>Total revenue rose 18% year on year to S$562.7 million while net profit surged 35% year on year to S$84.6 million.</p><p>The group expects to be profitable for FY2023 and with China’s recent reopening, there could be stronger demand for luxury timepieces in the coming months.</p><p>An interim dividend of S$0.02 was paid out, similar to a year ago.</p><p>The trailing 12-month dividend came in at S$0.08, giving THG’s shares a trailing dividend yield of 3.9%.</p><p><b>Food Empire Holdings Ltd (SGX: F03)</b></p><p>Food Empire is a food and beverage manufacturer that produces instant beverages and frozen and snack food products.</p><p>The group’s products are sold in over 50 countries and it has 23 offices worldwide along with eight manufacturing facilities.</p><p>For 9M 2022, Food Empire posted a 26.5% year on year rise in revenue to US$286 million.</p><p>Net profit soared more than three-fold year on year from US$14.6 million to US$49.6 million.</p><p>The food and beverage group recently announced that for 2022, it will report a substantial increase in profits that is partly due to the disposal of a non-core asset.</p><p>For 2021, Food Empire paid out a total dividend of S$0.022, giving its shares a historical dividend yield of 2.7%.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Dividend-Paying Singapore Stocks for Young Working Adults</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Dividend-Paying Singapore Stocks for Young Working Adults\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-18 09:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-dividend-paying-singapore-stocks-for-young-working-adults/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the saying goes, you are never too young to start investing.While Warren Buffett reportedly invested his first dollar at age 11, most of us may be limited by the amount of money we have at that age...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-dividend-paying-singapore-stocks-for-young-working-adults/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"558.SI":"UMS控股","F03.SI":"富旺朝","AIY.SI":"奕丰集团","AGS.SI":"欧佳时"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-dividend-paying-singapore-stocks-for-young-working-adults/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101756413","content_text":"As the saying goes, you are never too young to start investing.While Warren Buffett reportedly invested his first dollar at age 11, most of us may be limited by the amount of money we have at that age.Hence, it’s not unusual for many to start investing only when they have earned their first pay cheque.If you’ve just entered the workforce, your priority will be on growing your pot of savings.You should, therefore, select stocks with promising growth prospects.However, a dash of dividends is helpful to add a layer of passive income to their earned income.Here is a list of four Singapore stocks that not only display promising growth but also pay out a consistent dividend to boot.iFAST Corporation Limited (SGX: AIY)iFAST is a financial technology company that runs a platform for the buying and selling of unit trusts, equities, and bonds.The group saw its net profit tumble in 2022 as volatile financial markets and several one-off adjustments impacted its financials.However, the fintech still saw healthy fund inflows of S$2.1 billion last year with its fixed income division also seeing a surge in subscriptions as bond yields surged.iFAST is also counting on its Hong Kong division to be an important growth driver for the group from this year till 2025.The division snagged a significant ePension contract that should greatly boost the division’s revenue and net profit once contributions start flowing in from the fourth quarter of this year (4Q 2023).An annual dividend of S$0.048 was declared for 2022, similar to the level paid out in 2021.Shares of iFAST provide a 0.9% historical dividend yield.UMS Holdings Limited (SGX: 558)UMS provides equipment manufacturing and engineering services to the original equipment manufacturers of semiconductors.The group reported a strong set of earnings for the first nine months of 2022 (9M 2022).Revenue climbed 48% year on year to S$271.4 million while net profit surged by 73% year on year to S$82 million.UMS believes that global chip demand should remain fairly strong over the long term, although the industry may be facing a short-term cyclical downturn.The semiconductor market is projected to surpass US$1 trillion by 2030, led by a boom in automobiles and data centres.UMS is also ramping up its expansion plans with the construction of its Penang factory completed by the end of last year and in preparation for production ramp-up in the middle of 2023.An interim dividend of S$0.01 was declared for the third quarter of 2022.UMS’ trailing 12-month dividend stood at S$0.05, giving its shares a trailing 12-month dividend yield of 4.5%.The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)The Hour Glass, or THG, is a retailer of luxury watches with 50 boutiques in the Asia-Pacific region.The group is the official retailer of famous Swiss watch brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet.The group reported a strong set of earnings for its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H FY2023).Total revenue rose 18% year on year to S$562.7 million while net profit surged 35% year on year to S$84.6 million.The group expects to be profitable for FY2023 and with China’s recent reopening, there could be stronger demand for luxury timepieces in the coming months.An interim dividend of S$0.02 was paid out, similar to a year ago.The trailing 12-month dividend came in at S$0.08, giving THG’s shares a trailing dividend yield of 3.9%.Food Empire Holdings Ltd (SGX: F03)Food Empire is a food and beverage manufacturer that produces instant beverages and frozen and snack food products.The group’s products are sold in over 50 countries and it has 23 offices worldwide along with eight manufacturing facilities.For 9M 2022, Food Empire posted a 26.5% year on year rise in revenue to US$286 million.Net profit soared more than three-fold year on year from US$14.6 million to US$49.6 million.The food and beverage group recently announced that for 2022, it will report a substantial increase in profits that is partly due to the disposal of a non-core asset.For 2021, Food Empire paid out a total dividend of S$0.022, giving its shares a historical dividend yield of 2.7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"I like SReits too and they provide me with a great source of passive income. 😍😍😍","text":"I like SReits too and they provide me with a great source of passive income. 😍😍😍","html":"I like SReits too and they provide me with a great source of passive income. 😍😍😍"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947410273,"gmtCreate":1683456144492,"gmtModify":1683456154563,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"title":"How to avoid from losing big money and preserve your capital.","htmlText":"First of all, start your trading with high volume, high volatility, and a large market capitalization stock. There are several reasons to validate this: a) You will be able to see good price action. b) There will be less manipulation in the market. c) You will be able to preserve your capital easily by selling quickly&nbsp; d) You will be able to access resources or news easily across the internet. Here is my basic advice to avoid losing significant amounts of money in trading: a) When making a price entry, always have support and resistance levels. If you are unsure about the levels, do not try to trade. Support is the price level at which buyers are heavily waiting or holding the stock. Resistance is the ceiling price that the stock is unlikely to surpass. b) Trend: The trend is always","listText":"First of all, start your trading with high volume, high volatility, and a large market capitalization stock. There are several reasons to validate this: a) You will be able to see good price action. b) There will be less manipulation in the market. c) You will be able to preserve your capital easily by selling quickly&nbsp; d) You will be able to access resources or news easily across the internet. Here is my basic advice to avoid losing significant amounts of money in trading: a) When making a price entry, always have support and resistance levels. If you are unsure about the levels, do not try to trade. Support is the price level at which buyers are heavily waiting or holding the stock. Resistance is the ceiling price that the stock is unlikely to surpass. b) Trend: The trend is always","text":"First of all, start your trading with high volume, high volatility, and a large market capitalization stock. There are several reasons to validate this: a) You will be able to see good price action. b) There will be less manipulation in the market. c) You will be able to preserve your capital easily by selling quickly d) You will be able to access resources or news easily across the internet. Here is my basic advice to avoid losing significant amounts of money in trading: a) When making a price entry, always have support and resistance levels. If you are unsure about the levels, do not try to trade. Support is the price level at which buyers are heavily waiting or holding the stock. Resistance is the ceiling price that the stock is unlikely to surpass. b) Trend: The trend is always","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947410273","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Thanks for sharing your insights and cautionary advice. 😍😍😍","text":"Thanks for sharing your insights and cautionary advice. 😍😍😍","html":"Thanks for sharing your insights and cautionary advice. 😍😍😍"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944396124,"gmtCreate":1681694805869,"gmtModify":1681694810050,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3 more days to go And claim your rewards guys!&nbsp;","listText":"3 more days to go And claim your rewards guys!&nbsp;","text":"3 more days to go And claim your rewards guys!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944396124","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945710806,"gmtCreate":1681579625505,"gmtModify":1681579629505,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Couple days more before everyone wins their rewards!&nbsp;","listText":"Couple days more before everyone wins their rewards!&nbsp;","text":"Couple days more before everyone wins their rewards!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945710806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945243002,"gmtCreate":1681491152106,"gmtModify":1681491215910,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who would be the lucky ass to get the Disney share &nbsp;","listText":"Who would be the lucky ass to get the Disney share &nbsp;","text":"Who would be the lucky ass to get the Disney share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945243002","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942778749,"gmtCreate":1681315474281,"gmtModify":1681315477407,"author":{"id":"3559546385259983","authorId":"3559546385259983","name":"Lord_Kuberan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e82384ce5c6aef5201a6f95f219f3be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully to win something from here","listText":"Hopefully to win something from here","text":"Hopefully to win something from here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942778749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}