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WatermelonSu

WatermelonSu

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2023-10-17

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@koolgal:The Perils of Investing In Meme Stocks

2023-05-16

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@SGX_Stars:Weekly | Why Top Glove Lead the Market this Week？

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Google: I Am Getting Really Greedy Now

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/231285142245624","repostId":"230526599237888","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":230526599237888,"gmtCreate":1697322796700,"gmtModify":1697331012444,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"title":"The Perils of Investing In Meme Stocks ","htmlText":"🌟🌟🌟After 1 week of Israel Hamas war, at least 3500 people died and 400,000 people lost their homes.&nbsp; The grim news has affected the US markets on Friday with the markets closing down. With such dire news, it is not surprising that Meme stocks were negatively impacted. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> was down 3% on Friday despite trading upwards earlier in the week.&nbsp; However it is still up a strong 171% year todate.&nbsp; The latest news that Palantir was awarded a USD 250 million contract from the US Department of Defense boosted Palantir's share price.&nbsp; &nbsp; Palantir is also favoured to win the USD 595 million NHS contract in the United Kingdom.&nbsp; This is the biggest ever NHS England IT Cont","listText":"🌟🌟🌟After 1 week of Israel Hamas war, at least 3500 people died and 400,000 people lost their homes.&nbsp; The grim news has affected the US markets on Friday with the markets closing down. With such dire news, it is not surprising that Meme stocks were negatively impacted. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> was down 3% on Friday despite trading upwards earlier in the week.&nbsp; However it is still up a strong 171% year todate.&nbsp; The latest news that Palantir was awarded a USD 250 million contract from the US Department of Defense boosted Palantir's share price.&nbsp; &nbsp; Palantir is also favoured to win the USD 595 million NHS contract in the United Kingdom.&nbsp; This is the biggest ever NHS England IT Cont","text":"🌟🌟🌟After 1 week of Israel Hamas war, at least 3500 people died and 400,000 people lost their homes. The grim news has affected the US markets on Friday with the markets closing down. With such dire news, it is not surprising that Meme stocks were negatively impacted. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ was down 3% on Friday despite trading upwards earlier in the week. However it is still up a strong 171% year todate. The latest news that Palantir was awarded a USD 250 million contract from the US Department of Defense boosted Palantir's share price. Palantir is also favoured to win the USD 595 million NHS contract in the United Kingdom. This is the biggest ever NHS England IT Cont","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a85745e2ca9cad4ac7e00bdbea879e7a","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/230526599237888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970158880,"gmtCreate":1684202167241,"gmtModify":1684202170676,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970158880","repostId":"9970396234","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970396234,"gmtCreate":1683891495828,"gmtModify":1683891519457,"author":{"id":"3527667673047996","authorId":"3527667673047996","name":"SGX_Stars","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e25c0d30145226f3d840902eeabbadbb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667673047996","authorIdStr":"3527667673047996"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly | Why Top Glove Lead the Market this Week？","htmlText":"As of the close on Friday,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STI.SI\">$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$</a>&nbsp;closed at 3,208.55&nbsp;points,&nbsp;down&nbsp;1.78%&nbsp;points&nbsp;last week. The earnings calendar is attached at the end of the article.During the last 5 trading days, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/E5H.SI\">$GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD(E5H.SI)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S07.SI\">$SHANGRI-LA ASIA LIMITED(S07.SI)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S59.SI\">$SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD(S59.SI)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/P8Z.SI\">$BUMITAMA AGRI LTD.(P8Z.SI)$</a> are the top 5 Weekly&nbsp;gainers,&nbsp;up&nbsp;8.47%, 5.88%, 5.22%, 4.95% and 4.39% respectively.","listText":"As of the close on Friday,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STI.SI\">$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$</a>&nbsp;closed at 3,208.55&nbsp;points,&nbsp;down&nbsp;1.78%&nbsp;points&nbsp;last week. The earnings calendar is attached at the end of the article.During the last 5 trading days, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/E5H.SI\">$GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD(E5H.SI)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S07.SI\">$SHANGRI-LA ASIA LIMITED(S07.SI)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S59.SI\">$SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD(S59.SI)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/P8Z.SI\">$BUMITAMA AGRI LTD.(P8Z.SI)$</a> are the top 5 Weekly&nbsp;gainers,&nbsp;up&nbsp;8.47%, 5.88%, 5.22%, 4.95% and 4.39% respectively.","text":"As of the close on Friday, $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ closed at 3,208.55 points, down 1.78% points last week. The earnings calendar is attached at the end of the article.During the last 5 trading days, $TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$, $GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD(E5H.SI)$, $SHANGRI-LA ASIA LIMITED(S07.SI)$, $SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD(S59.SI)$ and $BUMITAMA AGRI LTD.(P8Z.SI)$ are the top 5 Weekly gainers, up 8.47%, 5.88%, 5.22%, 4.95% and 4.39% respectively.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef7f224fb01b776c5299cc9e8f01cca6","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4cb5d83cf3ebc547a37f1769ff0ef3f","width":"756","height":"1530"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/731c830b86f57b9b79e0b91504818380","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970396234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951658038,"gmtCreate":1673480186424,"gmtModify":1676538842867,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$&nbsp;</a>🆙&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$&nbsp;</a>🆙&nbsp;","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$ 🆙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951658038","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966576739,"gmtCreate":1669600947721,"gmtModify":1676538211681,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966576739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968129600,"gmtCreate":1669163139001,"gmtModify":1676538160068,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968129600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961376465,"gmtCreate":1668862063057,"gmtModify":1676538122485,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961376465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969129975,"gmtCreate":1668387766097,"gmtModify":1676538047875,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969129975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960358203,"gmtCreate":1668080352903,"gmtModify":1676538009388,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/916faaaaf4bff89b9f96d5937cae10bc","width":"1125","height":"2460"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960358203","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987519281,"gmtCreate":1667949698944,"gmtModify":1676537987652,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987519281","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987234703,"gmtCreate":1667916653102,"gmtModify":1676537984141,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla 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17:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google: I Am Getting Really Greedy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279461358","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Google stock is undervalued and very promising in the long term.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL) finally reported 3Q-22 earnings this week, with an unfortunate double-miss on earnings and sales as global advertising slowed in the last quarter.</p><p>Google has been treated very harshly and unfairly following the presentation of 3Q-22 earnings, despite the fact that they were not all that bad.</p><p>I believe Google stock will trade even lower in the short term as investors adjust to the slowing global advertising market, but the stock is undervalued and very promising in the long term.</p><h2><b>A Double-Miss For 3Q-22</b></h2><p>Google reported lower-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The 3Q-22 earnings presentation showed earnings of $1.25 per share, compared to an estimate of $1.25 per share. In terms of sales, Google also fell short, but only by 2.21%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140dff1c2dabab7500ebca4099296502\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Earnings Calls (Alphabet Inc)</p><h2><b>Google Stock Just Made New 52 Weeks Lows As A Result</b></h2><p>Google stock hit new lows after the internet company reported 3Q-22 earnings, as I predicted in my article Google: Potentially Facing A Sharp Selloff.</p><p>The market was irritated not so much by the double-miss on earnings and sales as it was by the slowdown in global advertising, which points to more pain for Google&#39;s advertising services in the short term.</p><p>Following the earnings presentation, Google stock has become dangerously close to being oversold, with the Relative Strength Index dropping dangerously close to an RSI value of 30, which is typically when a stock becomes technically oversold.</p><p>Having said that, Google stock did hit a new 52-week low of $91.90 yesterday, and there may be some more selling pressure in the short term, meaning GOOG could fall a little further as investors deal with the company&#39;s advertising slowdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c14f067b860e8283865bb9df6f9c3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RSI (StockCharts.com)</p><h2><b>The Big Problem With Google</b></h2><p>Google is a behemoth of a company, with a market cap of approximately $1.2 trillion and projected revenues of $284.2 billion this year.</p><p>The issue with Google is that, despite the company&#39;s dominant position in the online search market, growth is slowing as advertisers continue to reduce ad spending. As a result, Google&#39;s sales increased only 6% YoY to $69.09 billion in 3Q-22. When compared to a 41% increase in sales in the previous quarter, it&#39;s easy to see why investors are concerned about Google&#39;s growth prospects, particularly in the search market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04fb9e52fd8d38b1b183fe6c6b8762d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Revenues Increase YoY (Alphabet Inc)</p><p>In the third quarter, Google&#39;s search business generated $39.54 billion in revenue, representing a 4.3% YoY increase. Total advertising sales increased at a very slow 2.5% YoY to $54.48 billion, indicating that advertisers are far more hesitant to spend money on Google&#39;s advertising platforms than expected. Google&#39;s primary advertising platforms include Google search, YouTube, and the Google network.</p><p>With that said, I believe the growth slowdown is only temporary, as advertisers will continue to seek out platforms with the greatest reach, highest conversion rates, and most insightful analytics tools.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8944bd9938bd6bf31cdcfca23af213e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Q3-22 Supplemental Information (Alphabet Inc)</p><h2><b>Google’s Valuation Is A Bargain</b></h2><p>The market currently forecasts earnings of $5.44 per share for next year, but those projections are not without risk.</p><p>An ongoing advertiser pullback is expected to harm Google&#39;s core advertising business, potentially lowering Google&#39;s forward earnings per share estimates.</p><p>Google stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 17.0x, based on estimated earnings of $5.44 per share for 2023.</p><p>Given that Google maintains a market-leading position in search and generates approximately a quarter of a trillion dollars in sales annually, I believe the valuation is fair.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee978fe591cd11a2ecbba5ae5b678a6a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Earnings Estimate (Yahoo Finance)</p><h2><b>Why Google Could See A Lower/Higher Valuation</b></h2><p>I believe that Google will trade in a down channel for the foreseeable future, owing to ongoing selling pressure and slightly weaker-than-expected fundamentals.</p><p>Google&#39;s sales growth did indeed fall into the single digits in the last quarter, and another slowdown in 4Q-22 is to be expected. This means that Google could hit new lows in the short term, but the company&#39;s excellent search positioning, scale, and massive revenue base suggest that Google will be able to ride out a much longer market correction.</p><h2><b>My Conclusion</b></h2><p>Google is experiencing some short-term difficulties, but I believe that the decline in key metrics, which is primarily due to advertiser pullback, are merely transitory factors that should not have an impact on Google&#39;s long-term growth prospects in the advertising market.</p><p>The fact that Google&#39;s advertising growth slowed to 6% in the third quarter is obviously not ideal, but no other company in the digital advertising market has Google&#39;s size and reach.</p><p>When advertisers are ready to open their wallets again, Google&#39;s stock (and valuation) can soar.</p><p>As I stated in my previous article on Google, the drop represents a strong-buy opportunity for investors looking to profit from the company&#39;s short-term disappointment.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google: I Am Getting Really Greedy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle: I Am Getting Really Greedy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-31 17:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550886-google-i-am-getting-really-greedy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL) finally reported 3Q-22 earnings this week, with an unfortunate double-miss on earnings and sales as global advertising slowed in the last quarter.Google has been treated ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550886-google-i-am-getting-really-greedy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4550886-google-i-am-getting-really-greedy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2279461358","content_text":"Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL) finally reported 3Q-22 earnings this week, with an unfortunate double-miss on earnings and sales as global advertising slowed in the last quarter.Google has been treated very harshly and unfairly following the presentation of 3Q-22 earnings, despite the fact that they were not all that bad.I believe Google stock will trade even lower in the short term as investors adjust to the slowing global advertising market, but the stock is undervalued and very promising in the long term.A Double-Miss For 3Q-22Google reported lower-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The 3Q-22 earnings presentation showed earnings of $1.25 per share, compared to an estimate of $1.25 per share. In terms of sales, Google also fell short, but only by 2.21%.Earnings Calls (Alphabet Inc)Google Stock Just Made New 52 Weeks Lows As A ResultGoogle stock hit new lows after the internet company reported 3Q-22 earnings, as I predicted in my article Google: Potentially Facing A Sharp Selloff.The market was irritated not so much by the double-miss on earnings and sales as it was by the slowdown in global advertising, which points to more pain for Google's advertising services in the short term.Following the earnings presentation, Google stock has become dangerously close to being oversold, with the Relative Strength Index dropping dangerously close to an RSI value of 30, which is typically when a stock becomes technically oversold.Having said that, Google stock did hit a new 52-week low of $91.90 yesterday, and there may be some more selling pressure in the short term, meaning GOOG could fall a little further as investors deal with the company's advertising slowdown.RSI (StockCharts.com)The Big Problem With GoogleGoogle is a behemoth of a company, with a market cap of approximately $1.2 trillion and projected revenues of $284.2 billion this year.The issue with Google is that, despite the company's dominant position in the online search market, growth is slowing as advertisers continue to reduce ad spending. As a result, Google's sales increased only 6% YoY to $69.09 billion in 3Q-22. When compared to a 41% increase in sales in the previous quarter, it's easy to see why investors are concerned about Google's growth prospects, particularly in the search market.Revenues Increase YoY (Alphabet Inc)In the third quarter, Google's search business generated $39.54 billion in revenue, representing a 4.3% YoY increase. Total advertising sales increased at a very slow 2.5% YoY to $54.48 billion, indicating that advertisers are far more hesitant to spend money on Google's advertising platforms than expected. Google's primary advertising platforms include Google search, YouTube, and the Google network.With that said, I believe the growth slowdown is only temporary, as advertisers will continue to seek out platforms with the greatest reach, highest conversion rates, and most insightful analytics tools.Q3-22 Supplemental Information (Alphabet Inc)Google’s Valuation Is A BargainThe market currently forecasts earnings of $5.44 per share for next year, but those projections are not without risk.An ongoing advertiser pullback is expected to harm Google's core advertising business, potentially lowering Google's forward earnings per share estimates.Google stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 17.0x, based on estimated earnings of $5.44 per share for 2023.Given that Google maintains a market-leading position in search and generates approximately a quarter of a trillion dollars in sales annually, I believe the valuation is fair.Earnings Estimate (Yahoo Finance)Why Google Could See A Lower/Higher ValuationI believe that Google will trade in a down channel for the foreseeable future, owing to ongoing selling pressure and slightly weaker-than-expected fundamentals.Google's sales growth did indeed fall into the single digits in the last quarter, and another slowdown in 4Q-22 is to be expected. This means that Google could hit new lows in the short term, but the company's excellent search positioning, scale, and massive revenue base suggest that Google will be able to ride out a much longer market correction.My ConclusionGoogle is experiencing some short-term difficulties, but I believe that the decline in key metrics, which is primarily due to advertiser pullback, are merely transitory factors that should not have an impact on Google's long-term growth prospects in the advertising market.The fact that Google's advertising growth slowed to 6% in the third quarter is obviously not ideal, but no other company in the digital advertising market has Google's size and reach.When advertisers are ready to open their wallets again, Google's stock (and valuation) can soar.As I stated in my previous article on Google, the drop represents a strong-buy opportunity for investors looking to profit from the company's short-term disappointment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982142541,"gmtCreate":1667131164383,"gmtModify":1676537865102,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK 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data-views=\"0\"></v-v>fake bull run?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>fake bull run?&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$fake bull run?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988255275","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988173856,"gmtCreate":1666706656275,"gmtModify":1676537793334,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988173856","repostId":"2278020272","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278020272","pubTimestamp":1666700972,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278020272?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: You Have Been Warned","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278020272","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWhile iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max have seen relative strength after the initial launch, the dem","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>While iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max have seen relative strength after the initial launch, the demand for the two high-end models has been declining relative to the prior year.</li><li>The low-end models bring increasing risk that the production numbers for 2023 may be revised downwards, especially if demand continues to weaken further.</li><li>China will likely disappoint as consumer sentiment worsens given the soft iPhone shipments to China and weakening retail sales data as the country continues to be challenging for Apple.</li><li>My 1-year target price for Apple is $135. This represents an 8% downside from current levels.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f69d8740cc2bafe8656b09f1d0bcff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ivan-balvan</span></p><p>In my previous article for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), I warned that the demand for iPhone 14&#39;s low-end models was weaker than expected, and this turned out to be true as mainstream media subsequently reported that Apple decided to reduceproduction numbers in the near term.</p><p>In this article, I provide an update to show that the demand for the newest iPhone 14 models continues to fall, even for the high-end models, and highlight the increasing worries for the company in the run-up to its next quarter&#39;s earnings report.</p><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>I continue to take the view that Apple has a great business model, excellent products with strong brand equity and run by a solid management team. However, I think that this is a challenging environment for Apple as there are increasing risks and uncertainties for the company. I think that the weakening demand for its newest iPhone 14 models is worrying as even the high-end models seem to have lost interest and demand continues to fall for these products. On the other hand, the weak low-end iPhone 14 models have been disappointing and could provide near-term headwinds to production unit numbers as Apple could revise the number downwards if demand falls.</p><p>Another concern that Apple investors need to consider is China, which saw smartphone shipments decline recently, along with weakening retail sales for the third quarter, as consumer sentiment continues to be weak given the tough covid policies taken by the Chinese authorities and the impact of the property and technology sectors on the Chinese economy.</p><p>All in all, I would advise investors to hold the course for Apple as it remains not a good time to be adding to the shares given that the risk-reward perspective is skewed more to the downside, in my view.</p><h2>Demand for iPhones falling off after the initial strong response</h2><p>According to the UBS Evidence Lab data, their analysis showed that the initial strong demand that we saw for the high-end iPhone Pro Max is starting to wane. The UBS Evidence Lab data looks at the availability for the iPhone across more than 30 countries and also analyzed the supply chains and wait times for the iPhones.</p><p>We have seen wait times continue to weaken in recent days relative to post-launch while the US is the only market that continues to be an outlier in terms of wait times. For the US, the wait time for the iPhone 14 Pro Max is now at 27 days, higher than that for China which is at 23 days and the rest of the world at 21 days. As a result, the US region&#39;s strength has actually resulted in an almost 30% sell-through for the iPhone.</p><p>As can be seen below, the trends for the US remain that the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are the two preferred by consumers, while the demand for the low-end models like iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus is actually quite disappointing, in my view.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9509834e5f505bcb3a9da3aa70fc47f\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>iPhone availability in the US (UBS)</span></p><p>However, when we look at the relative trends for the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, their demand has really declined over the past few weeks, while the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max held up their demand over the same period. This does indicate to me a worrying trend even for the high-end models as the demand does seem to be weaker than last year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0450e3eda6b8a53cacc483158a045d03\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max compared to iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max in the US (UBS)</span></p><h2>Declining demand and the implications for near-term results</h2><p>As I have stated in my previous article that the low-end iPhone 14 demands have been rather weak, the demand for the iPhone 14 is heavily skewed towards to high-end iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. While this does give a boost in terms of increasing the average selling price for the September as well as the December quarters, I think that the high availability of the low-end iPhones poses a risk to the second half of 2022 and 2023. This risk comes in the form of Apple missing on their units as they scale back production of the low-end models. In fact, just last month, Apple announced that they will be scaling back plans to increase production of the iPhone 14 by 6 million units. Instead, it will be producing a similar number of units as in the last year with an aim of 90 million handsets for the period.</p><p>While I think that Apple will likely shift production focus from the low-end handsets to the high-end handsets, there could be a further risk that the iPhone 14 low-end models continue to miss on the units sold, which could drive production numbers down further than expected.</p><p>As a result, I take the view that there is relatively low upside to the unit forecast of 48 million in September and 83 million in December as the early indicators are showing that we are seeing demand creeping downwards post-launch. In fact, there is a greater risk to the production consensus numbers for the second half of 2022 as well as for calendar year 2023, which is currently at 84 million and 244 million respectively, according to Visible Alpha. The bigger risk, in my view, will be the 244 million units for the calendar year 2023 as there is a risk that the low-end production could continue to be reduced in time to come as demand continues to weaken.</p><h2>China weakness remains a near-term headwind</h2><p>There are worrying trends for Apple&#39;s iPhone business in China as the country is struggling with multiple troubles internally. The July smartphone shipments in China were down 31% in July. While this is partly attributable to the lack of new models, I think that the decline in smartphone shipments also signal increasing troubles for the iPhone demand in China, at least in the near term.</p><p>This is because China&#39;s economy seems to be faltering, as Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns in cities across China have dampened demand in July. In my view, this will likely continue to cause softness in the near term as China continues to take a zero covid policy approach. While the direct impact of the zero covid policy approach and lockdowns in the cities is that there is lower foot traffic in the malls and Apple stores, the indirect impact is resulting in a heavy toll on the Chinese economy.</p><p>Recently, retail sales in China weakened in the third quarter, which implies weakening consumer sentiment and for Apple, there could be a risk that this might imply lower demand for the high-end iPhone models.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>My 1-year target price for Apple is based on an equal weight of a P/E multiple method, as well as a DCF method. For the P/E multiple method, I apply a 25x P/E multiple to the average of Apple&#39;s FY2023F and FY2024F earnings per share forecasts. While Apple is merely growing at 6% earnings per share CAGR over the next 2 years, I think that the 25x forward multiple is justified given the strong management team, solid brand reputation, as well as the competitive advantages that Apple will continue to enjoy in the future due to its leadership position in the industry. For the DCF method, I apply a terminal multiple of 20x and discount rate of 8%. I have taken into account the near-term weakness in my near-term financial forecasts for Apple as I incorporate in my forecasts some of the risks that arise from the weakening macroeconomic environment. That said, I have yet to price in a full recession scenario in my model for Apple.</p><p>Based on the two valuation methodologies, I arrived at a target price of $135 for Apple. This represents an 8% downside from current levels. While there is potential downside to come in the near term, as well as increasing risks that unit forecasts may miss expectations and demand from China may fall, I maintain my neutral rating for Apple as it continues to look good for the long-term. Apple continues to reap the benefits from the strong brand reputation, solid demand globally, stellar management execution and a long track record of success.</p><h2>Risks</h2><h3>Weakening macroeconomic environment</h3><p>The global macroeconomic environment is facing an increasingly uncertain and gloomy period as global growth seems to be stalling as central banks globally increase interest rates to tackle rising global inflation. TheIMFcontinues to see global challenges that will challenge growth forecasts in the near term.</p><p>For Apple, while its products can be argued to be an essential good for the digital world we live in today, it is still not immune to a global macro slowdown. In particular, Apple could see consumers less willing to change handsets and holding on to current handsets for a longer time during weak economic periods, while also trading down from higher-priced and high-end iPhone models to lower-end models. If the demand for Apple&#39;s products falls more than expected given further weakening of the global economy, this will result in downward revisions for the stock price.</p><h3>China demand</h3><p>As the next growth driver for Apple given the relatively lower penetration in the country as well as increasing affluence, China is an important market for Apple. As a result of tough covid 19 policies as well as the clampdown on the technology sector and the troubles facing the real estate sector, consumer sentiment in the country is rather weak at the current moment. As a result, I think that the demand in China poses one of the bigger risks for Apple as it may fall drastically as the economy worsens given the many challenges the country is facing today.</p><h3>Market share loss in smartphone markets</h3><p>I continue to take the view that Apple has one of the best and strongest competitive moats in the world given that they have a strong brand name globally and they continue to strive to be at the forefront of technological innovation. The risk remains that Apple needs to continue to innovate to maintain this leading position. While there are many other smartphone players in both the low-end and high-end markets, these players currently do not enjoy the same brand recognition and equity that Apple does. However, if its competitors are able to come up with better features or better software, this may undermine Apple&#39;s current dominant position in the industry.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>To sum things up, Apple continues to face near-term headwinds as uncertainties and risks mount for the company. The recently launched iPhone 14 models have seen demand waning, for both the low-end and high-end models. This might signal demand, in general, is falling as consumers become increasingly cost-sensitive as the global economic situation worsens. In particular, there is a risk that Apple may reduce its production numbers if the low-end iPhone 14 models continue to disappoint. In China, Apple has a risk that demand for its products may fall in the near term as the Chinese economy is hurt by the zero-covid policies as well as the impact of the technology and real estate sectors on the Chinese economy. My 1-year target price is $135 for Apple, implying an 8% downside from current levels. As such, I maintain my neutral rating as I continue to think that this is not yet the time to be adding to Apple.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>Simple Investing</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: You Have Been Warned</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: You Have Been Warned\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 20:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548545-apple-stock-you-have-been-warned><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWhile iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max have seen relative strength after the initial launch, the demand for the two high-end models has been declining relative to the prior year.The low-end models ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548545-apple-stock-you-have-been-warned\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548545-apple-stock-you-have-been-warned","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278020272","content_text":"SummaryWhile iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max have seen relative strength after the initial launch, the demand for the two high-end models has been declining relative to the prior year.The low-end models bring increasing risk that the production numbers for 2023 may be revised downwards, especially if demand continues to weaken further.China will likely disappoint as consumer sentiment worsens given the soft iPhone shipments to China and weakening retail sales data as the country continues to be challenging for Apple.My 1-year target price for Apple is $135. This represents an 8% downside from current levels.Ivan-balvanIn my previous article for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), I warned that the demand for iPhone 14's low-end models was weaker than expected, and this turned out to be true as mainstream media subsequently reported that Apple decided to reduceproduction numbers in the near term.In this article, I provide an update to show that the demand for the newest iPhone 14 models continues to fall, even for the high-end models, and highlight the increasing worries for the company in the run-up to its next quarter's earnings report.Investment thesisI continue to take the view that Apple has a great business model, excellent products with strong brand equity and run by a solid management team. However, I think that this is a challenging environment for Apple as there are increasing risks and uncertainties for the company. I think that the weakening demand for its newest iPhone 14 models is worrying as even the high-end models seem to have lost interest and demand continues to fall for these products. On the other hand, the weak low-end iPhone 14 models have been disappointing and could provide near-term headwinds to production unit numbers as Apple could revise the number downwards if demand falls.Another concern that Apple investors need to consider is China, which saw smartphone shipments decline recently, along with weakening retail sales for the third quarter, as consumer sentiment continues to be weak given the tough covid policies taken by the Chinese authorities and the impact of the property and technology sectors on the Chinese economy.All in all, I would advise investors to hold the course for Apple as it remains not a good time to be adding to the shares given that the risk-reward perspective is skewed more to the downside, in my view.Demand for iPhones falling off after the initial strong responseAccording to the UBS Evidence Lab data, their analysis showed that the initial strong demand that we saw for the high-end iPhone Pro Max is starting to wane. The UBS Evidence Lab data looks at the availability for the iPhone across more than 30 countries and also analyzed the supply chains and wait times for the iPhones.We have seen wait times continue to weaken in recent days relative to post-launch while the US is the only market that continues to be an outlier in terms of wait times. For the US, the wait time for the iPhone 14 Pro Max is now at 27 days, higher than that for China which is at 23 days and the rest of the world at 21 days. As a result, the US region's strength has actually resulted in an almost 30% sell-through for the iPhone.As can be seen below, the trends for the US remain that the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are the two preferred by consumers, while the demand for the low-end models like iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus is actually quite disappointing, in my view.iPhone availability in the US (UBS)However, when we look at the relative trends for the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, their demand has really declined over the past few weeks, while the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max held up their demand over the same period. This does indicate to me a worrying trend even for the high-end models as the demand does seem to be weaker than last year.iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max compared to iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max in the US (UBS)Declining demand and the implications for near-term resultsAs I have stated in my previous article that the low-end iPhone 14 demands have been rather weak, the demand for the iPhone 14 is heavily skewed towards to high-end iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. While this does give a boost in terms of increasing the average selling price for the September as well as the December quarters, I think that the high availability of the low-end iPhones poses a risk to the second half of 2022 and 2023. This risk comes in the form of Apple missing on their units as they scale back production of the low-end models. In fact, just last month, Apple announced that they will be scaling back plans to increase production of the iPhone 14 by 6 million units. Instead, it will be producing a similar number of units as in the last year with an aim of 90 million handsets for the period.While I think that Apple will likely shift production focus from the low-end handsets to the high-end handsets, there could be a further risk that the iPhone 14 low-end models continue to miss on the units sold, which could drive production numbers down further than expected.As a result, I take the view that there is relatively low upside to the unit forecast of 48 million in September and 83 million in December as the early indicators are showing that we are seeing demand creeping downwards post-launch. In fact, there is a greater risk to the production consensus numbers for the second half of 2022 as well as for calendar year 2023, which is currently at 84 million and 244 million respectively, according to Visible Alpha. The bigger risk, in my view, will be the 244 million units for the calendar year 2023 as there is a risk that the low-end production could continue to be reduced in time to come as demand continues to weaken.China weakness remains a near-term headwindThere are worrying trends for Apple's iPhone business in China as the country is struggling with multiple troubles internally. The July smartphone shipments in China were down 31% in July. While this is partly attributable to the lack of new models, I think that the decline in smartphone shipments also signal increasing troubles for the iPhone demand in China, at least in the near term.This is because China's economy seems to be faltering, as Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns in cities across China have dampened demand in July. In my view, this will likely continue to cause softness in the near term as China continues to take a zero covid policy approach. While the direct impact of the zero covid policy approach and lockdowns in the cities is that there is lower foot traffic in the malls and Apple stores, the indirect impact is resulting in a heavy toll on the Chinese economy.Recently, retail sales in China weakened in the third quarter, which implies weakening consumer sentiment and for Apple, there could be a risk that this might imply lower demand for the high-end iPhone models.ValuationMy 1-year target price for Apple is based on an equal weight of a P/E multiple method, as well as a DCF method. For the P/E multiple method, I apply a 25x P/E multiple to the average of Apple's FY2023F and FY2024F earnings per share forecasts. While Apple is merely growing at 6% earnings per share CAGR over the next 2 years, I think that the 25x forward multiple is justified given the strong management team, solid brand reputation, as well as the competitive advantages that Apple will continue to enjoy in the future due to its leadership position in the industry. For the DCF method, I apply a terminal multiple of 20x and discount rate of 8%. I have taken into account the near-term weakness in my near-term financial forecasts for Apple as I incorporate in my forecasts some of the risks that arise from the weakening macroeconomic environment. That said, I have yet to price in a full recession scenario in my model for Apple.Based on the two valuation methodologies, I arrived at a target price of $135 for Apple. This represents an 8% downside from current levels. While there is potential downside to come in the near term, as well as increasing risks that unit forecasts may miss expectations and demand from China may fall, I maintain my neutral rating for Apple as it continues to look good for the long-term. Apple continues to reap the benefits from the strong brand reputation, solid demand globally, stellar management execution and a long track record of success.RisksWeakening macroeconomic environmentThe global macroeconomic environment is facing an increasingly uncertain and gloomy period as global growth seems to be stalling as central banks globally increase interest rates to tackle rising global inflation. TheIMFcontinues to see global challenges that will challenge growth forecasts in the near term.For Apple, while its products can be argued to be an essential good for the digital world we live in today, it is still not immune to a global macro slowdown. In particular, Apple could see consumers less willing to change handsets and holding on to current handsets for a longer time during weak economic periods, while also trading down from higher-priced and high-end iPhone models to lower-end models. If the demand for Apple's products falls more than expected given further weakening of the global economy, this will result in downward revisions for the stock price.China demandAs the next growth driver for Apple given the relatively lower penetration in the country as well as increasing affluence, China is an important market for Apple. As a result of tough covid 19 policies as well as the clampdown on the technology sector and the troubles facing the real estate sector, consumer sentiment in the country is rather weak at the current moment. As a result, I think that the demand in China poses one of the bigger risks for Apple as it may fall drastically as the economy worsens given the many challenges the country is facing today.Market share loss in smartphone marketsI continue to take the view that Apple has one of the best and strongest competitive moats in the world given that they have a strong brand name globally and they continue to strive to be at the forefront of technological innovation. The risk remains that Apple needs to continue to innovate to maintain this leading position. While there are many other smartphone players in both the low-end and high-end markets, these players currently do not enjoy the same brand recognition and equity that Apple does. However, if its competitors are able to come up with better features or better software, this may undermine Apple's current dominant position in the industry.ConclusionTo sum things up, Apple continues to face near-term headwinds as uncertainties and risks mount for the company. The recently launched iPhone 14 models have seen demand waning, for both the low-end and high-end models. This might signal demand, in general, is falling as consumers become increasingly cost-sensitive as the global economic situation worsens. In particular, there is a risk that Apple may reduce its production numbers if the low-end iPhone 14 models continue to disappoint. In China, Apple has a risk that demand for its products may fall in the near term as the Chinese economy is hurt by the zero-covid policies as well as the impact of the technology and real estate sectors on the Chinese economy. My 1-year target price is $135 for Apple, implying an 8% downside from current levels. As such, I maintain my neutral rating as I continue to think that this is not yet the time to be adding to Apple.This article is written by Simple Investing for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988020412,"gmtCreate":1666625893036,"gmtModify":1676537780499,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988020412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9012175919,"gmtCreate":1649297663242,"gmtModify":1676534487822,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>Hope it goes up more!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>Hope it goes up more!","text":"$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$Hope it goes up more!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7903c5ea83a76b24dcc793d915c9dd01","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012175919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082041875,"gmtCreate":1650505084470,"gmtModify":1676534740340,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>🔝&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>🔝&nbsp;","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$🔝","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/72d98c3f1355d4f4d8af5a2c2b6eba85","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082041875","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082439669,"gmtCreate":1650589930364,"gmtModify":1676534759220,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>Up or down&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>Up or down&nbsp;","text":"$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$Up or down","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/626e49ffa39ac1ad66a3a43c19367d1b","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082439669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932215538,"gmtCreate":1662945088924,"gmtModify":1676537168190,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Going up?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Going up?&nbsp;","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Going up?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4323ff61bd6c43ea6acea1f7c93ba6b","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932215538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935130556,"gmtCreate":1663041232875,"gmtModify":1676537190020,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Any hope?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Any hope?","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Any hope?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51a4088ce58941ed9bc8deb4ccf3da0a","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935130556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582922989777578","authorId":"3582922989777578","name":"SPOT_ON","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/080f029371339d9db26930961de6adb1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582922989777578","authorIdStr":"3582922989777578"},"content":"no hope.. before covid... all along top glove trades at 20c level","text":"no hope.. before covid... all along top glove trades at 20c level","html":"no hope.. before covid... all along top glove trades at 20c level"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081733367,"gmtCreate":1650277091991,"gmtModify":1676534684494,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>👍","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a291b9d5dfa43637f823fec24070dd03","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081733367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014641923,"gmtCreate":1649655825385,"gmtModify":1676534545827,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>👍","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c08ab58cbdb444044f2b383d8f98108c","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014641923","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910274874,"gmtCreate":1663636636698,"gmtModify":1676537305621,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/546.SI\">$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$</a>How Low can you go?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/546.SI\">$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$</a>How Low can you go?&nbsp;","text":"$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$How Low can you go?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/57f760367127d0efde15de57d02de7ad","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910274874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569809505691000","authorId":"3569809505691000","name":"breAkdaWn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c3676c14de9bfcd6f45bcf7ba4ddb6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569809505691000","authorIdStr":"3569809505691000"},"content":"delist soon. we loose all !","text":"delist soon. we loose all !","html":"delist soon. we loose all !"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990337621,"gmtCreate":1660284919766,"gmtModify":1676533444547,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ESG.SI\">$Lion OCBC Low Carbon(ESG.SI)$</a>How?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ESG.SI\">$Lion OCBC Low Carbon(ESG.SI)$</a>How?","text":"$Lion OCBC Low Carbon(ESG.SI)$How?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d584cda295747952a40b3ee3e2cfc54e","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990337621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911069362,"gmtCreate":1664088372557,"gmtModify":1676537389381,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911069362","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062331138,"gmtCreate":1652000389024,"gmtModify":1676535011917,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Dividend time&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Dividend time&nbsp;","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$Dividend time","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e9dcfc1a247de2975dc42c3850c9709b","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062331138","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087586297,"gmtCreate":1651023188769,"gmtModify":1676534836341,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Can go up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Can go up?","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$Can go up?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c55317f75228e6b3fad5026def9f2ad","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087586297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082471005,"gmtCreate":1650595909514,"gmtModify":1676534761003,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>🥲","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>🥲","text":"$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$🥲","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/877266f06ac2abce1bd7cc27cc1c731d","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082471005","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573375517846152","authorId":"3573375517846152","name":"Buythedip","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e7905324638a15789f7ab478cba611c9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573375517846152","authorIdStr":"3573375517846152"},"content":"Chill bro, hong kong going to be fully relax soon, it takes time to see the revenues streams and growth to be back. Then they will increase divi dend","text":"Chill bro, hong kong going to be fully relax soon, it takes time to see the revenues streams and growth to be back. Then they will increase divi dend","html":"Chill bro, hong kong going to be fully relax soon, it takes time to see the revenues streams and growth to be back. Then they will increase divi dend"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992410223,"gmtCreate":1661352359465,"gmtModify":1676536501867,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a>[Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a>[Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$[Spurting]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b1737981ea567722216f291454964bb","width":"1125","height":"2981"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992410223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027271027,"gmtCreate":1654045431970,"gmtModify":1676535384234,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Good news?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Good news?&nbsp;","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$Good news?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da5c8f6caa787b0063b8f68ca31c4e9f","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027271027","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018436788,"gmtCreate":1649076931107,"gmtModify":1676534445911,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Up!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Up!","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Up!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b80a906752f2619fb5f05b85b0cc9b9","width":"1125","height":"3888"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018436788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019502342,"gmtCreate":1648605354001,"gmtModify":1676534363429,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>Up!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$</a>Up!","text":"$DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD(D01.SI)$Up!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cc68dd3c27954bb426ef53c86105202","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019502342","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918342308,"gmtCreate":1664327551305,"gmtModify":1676537433362,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S58.SI\">$SATS LTD.(S58.SI)$</a>Hope for better today..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S58.SI\">$SATS LTD.(S58.SI)$</a>Hope for better today..","text":"$SATS LTD.(S58.SI)$Hope for better today..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/790a0d67211b3f66b93101b2bf25b845","width":"1125","height":"2498"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918342308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934474288,"gmtCreate":1663294924044,"gmtModify":1676537246422,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934474288","repostId":"1154028915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154028915","pubTimestamp":1663293356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154028915?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 09:55","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Could SIA and SATS Pay a Dividend This Year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154028915","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"The aviation and tourism industries are seeing blue skies once again.Investors are rejoicing as the ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The aviation and tourism industries are seeing blue skies once again.</p><p>Investors are rejoicing as the removal of restrictions and border reopenings have triggered a surge in demand for air travel.</p><p><b>Singapore Airlines Limited</b>(SGX: C6L), or SIA, is a direct beneficiary of this increased demand as people flock to book overseas holidays.</p><p>This pent-up demand has also seen ground handler and food caterer <b>SATS Ltd</b>(SGX: S58) reporting better operating numbers as both cargo and meal volumes jump.</p><p>Back in early 2020, both SIA and SATS stopped paying out dividends to conserve cash as the pandemic swept across the world.</p><p>With the improved business conditions, could both companies restart their dividends this year?</p><p><b>A surge in passenger numbers</b></p><p>The rapid rise in passenger bookings has been nothing short of amazing.</p><p>At the beginning of 2021, SIA flew just 78,400 passengers on all its flights but this number had already jumped more than seven-fold by the end of 2021 as the Singapore government introduced the vaccinated travel lane(VTL) scheme in August 2021</p><p>By August this year, passenger numbers had surpassed two million, surging more than 13-fold from the 155,400 recorded in the same month last year.</p><p>In end-August, the number of flights going through Changi Airport hit 64% of pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Transport Minister S. Iswaran expects that by the end of 2022, this percentage will hit 80%.</p><p>In terms of passenger traffic, it is now at 58% of pre-pandemic levels but with the recent reopening of Terminal 4 this week, these numbers are expected to increase.</p><p>And there is more to come.</p><p>Authorities are planning for a full recovery of passenger traffic for the winter season, which begins October 30, and around half of Terminal 2 will be reopened by end-October.</p><p>By then, Changi Airport’s passenger handling capacity will return to its pre-COVID level of 70 million passengers a year.</p><p><b>Steadily improving financials</b></p><p>Both companies have also reported better financial numbers in their most recent quarter.</p><p>Blue-chip carrier SIA reported its second-highest operating profit in history for its fiscal 2023’s first quarter (1Q2023).</p><p>Net profit came in at S$370 million for 1Q2023, reversing the S$409 million net loss in the prior year.</p><p>Meanwhile, SATS saw revenue jump 36.2% year on year to S$375.5 million as flights handled more than tripled year on year amid a ten-fold surge in passengers handled.</p><p>Both aviation businesses, however, failed to generate free cash flow for their fiscal 2022 (FY2022) ended 31 March 2022.</p><p>SIA did manage to limit its cash burn to a negative free cash flow of S$81.6 million for FY2022 while SATS narrowed its free cash outflow to S$15.6 million over the same period.</p><p>That said, these numbers are a culmination of the weaker first half of FY2022 and the stronger recovery seen in the back half of the fiscal year.</p><p>For FY2023, both SIA and SATS’ profitability and cash flow could improve dramatically.</p><p><b>Other risks abound</b></p><p>The numbers may look good, but other risks also abound for the aviation and tourism industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22593df89022b874b2f5534b7e18c0f\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Trading Economics</p><p>Crude oil prices have surged since early this year to breach the US$100 per barrel mark, making fuel costs more expensive for both SIA and SATS.</p><p>Although prices have now come down to around US$88 per barrel, they remain elevated compared to early 2020 when oil prices plunged.</p><p>Another worry is the persistence of high inflation.</p><p>Singapore’s core inflation hit a 14-year high of 4.8% in July, and the government expects inflation to remain high for the remainder of this year.</p><p>A rise in GST from the current 7% to 8%, which kicks in January next year, could add more pressure.</p><p>Interest rates are also rising globally, making everything from corporate loans to mortgage debt more expensive.</p><p>This confluence of factors could work to depress consumer spending power as more people tighten their purse strings.</p><p>If the economy falls into a recession, it could lead to reduced flight bookings and result in lower demand for air travel come 2023.</p><p><b>Get Smart: Patience is the key</b></p><p>While the news of surging demand is good in the near term, more time is needed for both SIA and SATS to see if the recovery can be sustained.</p><p>Both companies also need to start generating a free cash flow before they can consider reinstating their respective dividends.</p><p>The above headwinds could prematurely derail this recovery, and investors will have to be patient and wait till next year and beyond to see how things pan out.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could SIA and SATS Pay a Dividend This Year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould SIA and SATS Pay a Dividend This Year?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 09:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/could-sia-and-sats-pay-a-dividend-this-year/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The aviation and tourism industries are seeing blue skies once again.Investors are rejoicing as the removal of restrictions and border reopenings have triggered a surge in demand for air travel....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/could-sia-and-sats-pay-a-dividend-this-year/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"S59.SI":"新航工程","C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/could-sia-and-sats-pay-a-dividend-this-year/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154028915","content_text":"The aviation and tourism industries are seeing blue skies once again.Investors are rejoicing as the removal of restrictions and border reopenings have triggered a surge in demand for air travel.Singapore Airlines Limited(SGX: C6L), or SIA, is a direct beneficiary of this increased demand as people flock to book overseas holidays.This pent-up demand has also seen ground handler and food caterer SATS Ltd(SGX: S58) reporting better operating numbers as both cargo and meal volumes jump.Back in early 2020, both SIA and SATS stopped paying out dividends to conserve cash as the pandemic swept across the world.With the improved business conditions, could both companies restart their dividends this year?A surge in passenger numbersThe rapid rise in passenger bookings has been nothing short of amazing.At the beginning of 2021, SIA flew just 78,400 passengers on all its flights but this number had already jumped more than seven-fold by the end of 2021 as the Singapore government introduced the vaccinated travel lane(VTL) scheme in August 2021By August this year, passenger numbers had surpassed two million, surging more than 13-fold from the 155,400 recorded in the same month last year.In end-August, the number of flights going through Changi Airport hit 64% of pre-pandemic levels.Transport Minister S. Iswaran expects that by the end of 2022, this percentage will hit 80%.In terms of passenger traffic, it is now at 58% of pre-pandemic levels but with the recent reopening of Terminal 4 this week, these numbers are expected to increase.And there is more to come.Authorities are planning for a full recovery of passenger traffic for the winter season, which begins October 30, and around half of Terminal 2 will be reopened by end-October.By then, Changi Airport’s passenger handling capacity will return to its pre-COVID level of 70 million passengers a year.Steadily improving financialsBoth companies have also reported better financial numbers in their most recent quarter.Blue-chip carrier SIA reported its second-highest operating profit in history for its fiscal 2023’s first quarter (1Q2023).Net profit came in at S$370 million for 1Q2023, reversing the S$409 million net loss in the prior year.Meanwhile, SATS saw revenue jump 36.2% year on year to S$375.5 million as flights handled more than tripled year on year amid a ten-fold surge in passengers handled.Both aviation businesses, however, failed to generate free cash flow for their fiscal 2022 (FY2022) ended 31 March 2022.SIA did manage to limit its cash burn to a negative free cash flow of S$81.6 million for FY2022 while SATS narrowed its free cash outflow to S$15.6 million over the same period.That said, these numbers are a culmination of the weaker first half of FY2022 and the stronger recovery seen in the back half of the fiscal year.For FY2023, both SIA and SATS’ profitability and cash flow could improve dramatically.Other risks aboundThe numbers may look good, but other risks also abound for the aviation and tourism industries.Source: Trading EconomicsCrude oil prices have surged since early this year to breach the US$100 per barrel mark, making fuel costs more expensive for both SIA and SATS.Although prices have now come down to around US$88 per barrel, they remain elevated compared to early 2020 when oil prices plunged.Another worry is the persistence of high inflation.Singapore’s core inflation hit a 14-year high of 4.8% in July, and the government expects inflation to remain high for the remainder of this year.A rise in GST from the current 7% to 8%, which kicks in January next year, could add more pressure.Interest rates are also rising globally, making everything from corporate loans to mortgage debt more expensive.This confluence of factors could work to depress consumer spending power as more people tighten their purse strings.If the economy falls into a recession, it could lead to reduced flight bookings and result in lower demand for air travel come 2023.Get Smart: Patience is the keyWhile the news of surging demand is good in the near term, more time is needed for both SIA and SATS to see if the recovery can be sustained.Both companies also need to start generating a free cash flow before they can consider reinstating their respective dividends.The above headwinds could prematurely derail this recovery, and investors will have to be patient and wait till next year and beyond to see how things pan out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938694856,"gmtCreate":1662599041575,"gmtModify":1676537096912,"author":{"id":"3573611418956138","authorId":"3573611418956138","name":"WatermelonSu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e0864e1a4c8b74c15b4ea72c2ffa452","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573611418956138","authorIdStr":"3573611418956138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/546.SI\">$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$</a>Sliding down??","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/546.SI\">$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$</a>Sliding down??","text":"$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$Sliding down??","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98381684bc64b04400d0f1635a37d589","width":"1125","height":"3057"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938694856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}