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2022-03-30

hope war can stop asap

US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict

2021-06-16

is it really a no brainer though?

Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years

2021-06-12

meme ftw

Meme stocks hit a wall on Thursday with GameStop, AMC and Clover down big

2021-06-10

Aape. artificial ape

This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon

2021-03-17

love bullish sentiments

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-16

i like the stock

GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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war can stop asap","listText":"hope war can stop asap","text":"hope war can stop asap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019536083","repostId":"2223587811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223587811","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1648594673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223587811?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 06:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223587811","media":"Reuters","summary":"U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve invertsUkraine-Russia meeting ends with some progressDow up 0.9","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve inverts</li><li>Ukraine-Russia meeting ends with some progress</li><li>Dow up 0.97%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.84%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&amp;P notching their fourth straight session of gains, on optimism some progress was being made toward a deal to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>Prices eased for oil and other commodities, helping calm concerns about rising inflation and the path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has started hiking interest rates to combat rising prices.</p><p>&#34;If you look over the course of the month this war has been going on, the market has priced in much more bad news than good news,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.</p><p>&#34;It certainly shows the market has a natural coiled spring that will be a reaction function to any good news and we saw a bit of that this morning, but everything will have to be taken with a grain of salt and we will have to see things actually play out versus being actually talked about.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 338.3 points, or 0.97%, to 35,294.19, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 56.08 points, or 1.23%, to 4,631.6 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 264.73 points, or 1.84%, to 14,619.64.</p><p>After a dismal start to the year for stocks that saw the S&amp;P 500 fall into a correction, commonly referred to as a drop of more than 10% from its most recent high, the benchmark index is now down less than 3% on the year.</p><p>Still, there were signs of market nervousness that the Fed could make a policy mistake that leads to a slowdown, or possibly a recession, in the economy as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury inverted for the first time since September 2019.</p><p>&#34;While I think the ultimate result of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle is a recession, I do not expect it to occur quickly. Historically speaking, all recessions are preceded by 2s10s inversions, but not all inversions result in recessions,&#34; said Ellis Phifer, managing director, fixed income research, at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.</p><p>After slumping more than 2% on Monday, the S&amp;P energy index (.SPNY) was the only declining sector as crude prices fell more than 1%.</p><p>As the conflict in Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, already rising prices saw more upward pressure on commodities such as wheat, energy and metals.</p><p>But even with the recent surge in inflation, data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a one-year low in March, while the current labor environment favors workers.</p><p>Real estate (.SPLRCR), up nearly 3% on the session, was the best performing sector, which indicates some investors may see inflation remaining but no recession on the horizon. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for the group since Jan. 28.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx Corp </a> gained 3.70% after the global delivery conglomerate named operating chief Raj Subramaniam as its top boss. read more</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.22 billion shares, compared with the 14 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.97-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 38 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-30 06:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve inverts</li><li>Ukraine-Russia meeting ends with some progress</li><li>Dow up 0.97%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.84%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&amp;P notching their fourth straight session of gains, on optimism some progress was being made toward a deal to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>Prices eased for oil and other commodities, helping calm concerns about rising inflation and the path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has started hiking interest rates to combat rising prices.</p><p>&#34;If you look over the course of the month this war has been going on, the market has priced in much more bad news than good news,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.</p><p>&#34;It certainly shows the market has a natural coiled spring that will be a reaction function to any good news and we saw a bit of that this morning, but everything will have to be taken with a grain of salt and we will have to see things actually play out versus being actually talked about.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 338.3 points, or 0.97%, to 35,294.19, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 56.08 points, or 1.23%, to 4,631.6 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 264.73 points, or 1.84%, to 14,619.64.</p><p>After a dismal start to the year for stocks that saw the S&amp;P 500 fall into a correction, commonly referred to as a drop of more than 10% from its most recent high, the benchmark index is now down less than 3% on the year.</p><p>Still, there were signs of market nervousness that the Fed could make a policy mistake that leads to a slowdown, or possibly a recession, in the economy as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury inverted for the first time since September 2019.</p><p>&#34;While I think the ultimate result of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle is a recession, I do not expect it to occur quickly. Historically speaking, all recessions are preceded by 2s10s inversions, but not all inversions result in recessions,&#34; said Ellis Phifer, managing director, fixed income research, at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.</p><p>After slumping more than 2% on Monday, the S&amp;P energy index (.SPNY) was the only declining sector as crude prices fell more than 1%.</p><p>As the conflict in Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, already rising prices saw more upward pressure on commodities such as wheat, energy and metals.</p><p>But even with the recent surge in inflation, data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a one-year low in March, while the current labor environment favors workers.</p><p>Real estate (.SPLRCR), up nearly 3% on the session, was the best performing sector, which indicates some investors may see inflation remaining but no recession on the horizon. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for the group since Jan. 28.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx Corp </a> gained 3.70% after the global delivery conglomerate named operating chief Raj Subramaniam as its top boss. read more</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.22 billion shares, compared with the 14 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.97-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 38 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","FDX":"联邦快递","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4131":"航空货运与物流","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","RJF":"瑞杰金融",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2223587811","content_text":"U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve invertsUkraine-Russia meeting ends with some progressDow up 0.97%, S&P 500 up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.84%(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P notching their fourth straight session of gains, on optimism some progress was being made toward a deal to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Prices eased for oil and other commodities, helping calm concerns about rising inflation and the path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has started hiking interest rates to combat rising prices.\"If you look over the course of the month this war has been going on, the market has priced in much more bad news than good news,\" said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.\"It certainly shows the market has a natural coiled spring that will be a reaction function to any good news and we saw a bit of that this morning, but everything will have to be taken with a grain of salt and we will have to see things actually play out versus being actually talked about.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 338.3 points, or 0.97%, to 35,294.19, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 56.08 points, or 1.23%, to 4,631.6 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 264.73 points, or 1.84%, to 14,619.64.After a dismal start to the year for stocks that saw the S&P 500 fall into a correction, commonly referred to as a drop of more than 10% from its most recent high, the benchmark index is now down less than 3% on the year.Still, there were signs of market nervousness that the Fed could make a policy mistake that leads to a slowdown, or possibly a recession, in the economy as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury inverted for the first time since September 2019.\"While I think the ultimate result of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle is a recession, I do not expect it to occur quickly. Historically speaking, all recessions are preceded by 2s10s inversions, but not all inversions result in recessions,\" said Ellis Phifer, managing director, fixed income research, at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.After slumping more than 2% on Monday, the S&P energy index (.SPNY) was the only declining sector as crude prices fell more than 1%.As the conflict in Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, already rising prices saw more upward pressure on commodities such as wheat, energy and metals.But even with the recent surge in inflation, data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a one-year low in March, while the current labor environment favors workers.Real estate (.SPLRCR), up nearly 3% on the session, was the best performing sector, which indicates some investors may see inflation remaining but no recession on the horizon. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for the group since Jan. 28.FedEx Corp  gained 3.70% after the global delivery conglomerate named operating chief Raj Subramaniam as its top boss. read moreVolume on U.S. exchanges was 13.22 billion shares, compared with the 14 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.97-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 38 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169073604,"gmtCreate":1623810600808,"gmtModify":1703820184335,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"is it really a no brainer though?","listText":"is it really a no brainer though?","text":"is it really a no brainer though?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169073604","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127823989","pubTimestamp":1623253090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127823989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127823989","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.Amazonis one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM throug","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon maintains high advertising potential.</li>\n <li>The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.</li>\n <li>The company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.</p>\n<p>Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.</p>\n<p>The retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.</p>\n<p>We still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.</p>\n<p><b>Product</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.</p>\n<p>In its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.</p>\n<p>This first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99378da746d0c3e0141d21e45729e0d\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.</p>\n<p>According toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Prime</b></p>\n<p>We all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.</p>\n<p>A chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.</p>\n<p>Amazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ee6071f10355c56905089335e248a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Starting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.</p>\n<p>2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.</p>\n<p>In 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.</p>\n<p>In 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.</p>\n<p>In 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.</p>\n<p>In 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.</p>\n<p>In 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.</p>\n<p>In 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.</p>\n<p>Finally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.</p>\n<p>The evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.</p>\n<p>Prime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98abbd226ea68e7b6dd19537677a9888\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Emarketer, Statista</p>\n<p>Given the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.</p>\n<p>Below is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250693f17a1239d59514520d8656fecb\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Prices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).</p>\n<p>The first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Penetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.</p>\n<p>The Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.</p>\n<p>The maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5636145e9a1d04a4f1d4f1643c0550a1\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.</p>\n<p>There are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.</p>\n<p>Currently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.</p>\n<p>Market penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa586d6b9e788420999aa48c50811040\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.</p>\n<p><b>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)</b></p>\n<p>More than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.</p>\n<p>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.</p>\n<p>FBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1165bbedf3c99919df3b86f97386eb31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b35107ea150c8462f41cf6ff2f1975\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual report, FactSet estimates</p>\n<p>With the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d093110e0653de7cd4b486dbcf1543f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.</p>\n<p>For orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Small classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.</li>\n <li>Large sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.</li>\n <li>Large unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Small and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.</p>\n<p>A key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.</p>\n<p>Intuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.</p>\n<p>2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.</p>\n<p>This has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab81f81d8d08e98fa4819e90b6a553e1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb5e8f0ce6c11a4e1a96e2ab8002586\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Growth in line with all of the above.</p>\n<p>Amazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.</p>\n<p>In the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeec3e1927a51a580d7007e6caba3c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Chaddick Institute</p>\n<p>In Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.</p>\n<p>The current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.</p>\n<p>And all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.</p>\n<p>Following the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.</p>\n<p>Is there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a8276c53a9261ed6a84a8607ce87e9\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Between them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.</p>\n<p>Considering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.</p>\n<p>We can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.</p>\n<p><b>AWS</b></p>\n<p>We believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.</p>\n<p>There should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931481c0a035bcced96f4f401235488\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a64e7975829481aa0bedba683c33fa\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.</p>\n<p>Amazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.</p>\n<p>Backlog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.</p>\n<p>The backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e0033a5094a6f45b6cf02363014fcd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual Report &amp; Morgan Stanley Estimates</p>\n<p>This graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.</p>\n<p><b>Supermarket</b></p>\n<p>The supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.</p>\n<p>The opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.</p>\n<p>Amazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)</p>\n<p>On the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.</p>\n<p>Therefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.</p>\n<p>Having the ability to do click &amp; collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.</p>\n<p>The current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.</p>\n<p>Reviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.</p>\n<p>In a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.</p>\n<p>On the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.</p>\n<p>To get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177141503cc09a782b0fc3ec7df8cd63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.</p>\n<p>In addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f30cc5515047623531828738fa6180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Especially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Ads</b></p>\n<p>This is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1174f49304a8d987eeffaabd69393d14\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.</p>\n<p>Considering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.</p>\n<p>Advertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af8cc7425a991f2e6d6e94f71d29fbd\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.</p>\n<p>It is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18aa88ac767b673ccddb587eb8bc7d01\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Amazon Healthcare</b></p>\n<p>Although you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.</p>\n<p>Amazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.</p>\n<p>With Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Make an appointment</li>\n <li>In-person follow-up care (select states only)</li>\n <li>Medical examinations</li>\n <li>24/7 service team, 365 days a year.</li>\n <li>Recipes delivered to your home.</li>\n <li>Vaccines.</li>\n <li>Virtual consultation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Within the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.</p>\n<p>Amazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.</p>\n<p>Amazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.</p>\n<p>Concerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.</p>\n<p>The combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.</p>\n<p>It is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.</li>\n <li>In 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.</li>\n <li>Late 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.</li>\n <li>Reported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.</li>\n <li>September 2019 launches Amazon Care.</li>\n <li>B2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.</li>\n <li>March 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.</li>\n <li>Launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Selling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:</p>\n<p>The final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.</p>\n<p>For any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).</p>\n<p>The Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.</p>\n<p>An important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.</p>\n<p>There are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Pharmacy:</b>allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:</b>part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Prime:</b>Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Understanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Retail sale of medicines</li>\n <li>B2B sales of medical devices</li>\n <li>Online medical care.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Gaming and Twitch</b></p>\n<p>Amazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>In 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.</li>\n <li>Also in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.</li>\n <li>In 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.</li>\n <li>In 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"</li>\n <li>2018 acquires GameSparks.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.</p>\n<p>The future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.</p>\n<p>In the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.</p>\n<p>Distribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.</p>\n<p>The new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.</p>\n<p><b>Music and Video</b></p>\n<p>The $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.</p>\n<p>Through the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).</p>\n<p>MGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.</p>\n<p>With 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.</p>\n<p>MGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.</p>\n<p>We do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.</p>\n<p>As for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&amp;A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.</p>\n<p>When it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?</p>\n<p>In the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.</p>\n<p><b>Venture Capital</b></p>\n<p>Amazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.</p>\n<p>The Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).</p>\n<p>It has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Covering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.</li>\n <li>Bezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.</li>\n <li>Regulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.</li>\n <li>A slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.</li>\n <li>That all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Waymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.</p>\n<p>Google with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495a0f59e25265e21fd12b548f93b3f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\">Amazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.</p>\n<p>In the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b304d1db1ca34a56deecd34a2e89a2c\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"344\"><b>Working Capital</b></p>\n<p>To understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.</p>\n<p>As margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b00f1639fd6bc917998f038f3ff60ec\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.</p>\n<p>Just by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d462cfa442b191e5e27213180f5ad9b\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"336\">If we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8546c6d09613082ad5d6e1fdef607bea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\">Under these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0e31590998b2af7f9f7209db841f59\" tg-width=\"251\" tg-height=\"410\">We would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.</p>\n<p>It is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127823989","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.\nAmazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.\nThe retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.\nOn the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.\nWe still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.\nProduct\nAmazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.\nIn its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.\nThis first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.\nThanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.\nAccording toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.\nAmazon Prime\nWe all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.\nA chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.\nAmazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.\nStarting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.\n2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.\nIn 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.\nIn 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.\nIn 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.\nIn 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.\nIn 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.\nIn 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.\nFinally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.\nThe evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.\nPrime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.\nSource: Emarketer, Statista\nGiven the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.\nBelow is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:\nPrices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).\nThe first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.\nPenetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.\nThe Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.\nThe maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:\nIn certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.\nThere are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.\nCurrently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.\nMarket penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.\nCurrently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA)\nMore than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.\nFBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.\nThe fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.\nAmazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:\nSource: Annual report, FactSet estimates\nWith the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.\nThe graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.\nFor orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:\n\nSmall classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.\nLarge sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.\nLarge unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.\n\nSmall and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.\nA key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.\nIntuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.\n2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.\nThis has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.\nThis Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:\nGrowth in line with all of the above.\nAmazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.\nIn the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.\nSource: Chaddick Institute\nIn Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.\nThe current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.\nAnd all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.\nFollowing the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.\nIs there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.\nBetween them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.\nConsidering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.\nWe can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.\nAWS\nWe believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.\nThere should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.\nAs for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.\nAmazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.\nAmazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.\nBacklog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.\nThe backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.\nSource: Annual Report & Morgan Stanley Estimates\nThis graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.\nSupermarket\nThe supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.\nThe opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.\nAmazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)\nOn the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.\nTherefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.\nHaving the ability to do click & collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.\nThe current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.\nReviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.\nIn a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.\nOn the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.\nTo get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:\nLooking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.\nIn addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.\nEspecially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.\nAmazon Ads\nThis is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:\nThis evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.\nConsidering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.\nAdvertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).\nAmazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.\nIt is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:\n\nAmazon Healthcare\nAlthough you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.\nAmazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.\nWith Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:\n\nMake an appointment\nIn-person follow-up care (select states only)\nMedical examinations\n24/7 service team, 365 days a year.\nRecipes delivered to your home.\nVaccines.\nVirtual consultation.\n\nWithin the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.\nAmazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.\nAmazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.\nConcerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.\nThe combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.\nIt is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:\n\nIn 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.\nIn 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.\nLate 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.\nReported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.\nSeptember 2019 launches Amazon Care.\nB2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.\nMarch 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.\nLaunch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.\n\nSelling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.\nAmazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:\nThe final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.\nFor any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).\nThe Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.\nAn important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.\nThere are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:\n\nAmazon Pharmacy:allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.\n\n\nPillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.\n\n\nAmazon Prime:Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.\n\nUnderstanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:\n\nRetail sale of medicines\nB2B sales of medical devices\nOnline medical care.\n\nGaming and Twitch\nAmazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:\n\nIn 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.\nAlso in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.\nIn 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.\nIn 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"\n2018 acquires GameSparks.\n\nOf all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.\nThe future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.\nIn the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.\nDistribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.\nThe new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.\nMusic and Video\nThe $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.\nThrough the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).\nMGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.\nWith 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.\nMGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.\nWe do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.\nAs for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.\nWhen it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?\nIn the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.\nVenture Capital\nAmazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.\nThe Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).\nIt has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.\nRisks\n\nCovering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.\nBezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.\nRegulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.\nA slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.\nThat all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.\n\nWaymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.\nGoogle with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:\nAmazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.\nIn the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:\nWorking Capital\nTo understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.\nProfitability\nAmazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.\nAs margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.\n\nValuation\nAmazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.\nIt currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.\nJust by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.\nIt currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.\nIf we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:\nUnder these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:\nWe would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.\nConclusion\nAmazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.\nIt is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186082428,"gmtCreate":1623465358264,"gmtModify":1704204383094,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"meme ftw","listText":"meme ftw","text":"meme ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186082428","repostId":"1194129273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194129273","pubTimestamp":1623368710,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194129273?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 07:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme stocks hit a wall on Thursday with GameStop, AMC and Clover down big","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194129273","media":"cnbc","summary":"The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy co","content":"<div>\n<p>The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy come, easy go for many speculative names favored by retail investors includingAMC ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stocks hit a wall on Thursday with GameStop, AMC and Clover down big\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 07:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy come, easy go for many speculative names favored by retail investors includingAMC ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1194129273","content_text":"The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy come, easy go for many speculative names favored by retail investors includingAMC EntertainmentandGameStopas they suffered double-digit losses on Thursday, pulling back from their recent explosive rallies. The video game retailer shed 27.2% even after announcing two high-profile executive hires from Amazon. The movie theater chain dropped 13.2% on Thursday, turning negative on the week.\nAnother red-hot meme stockClover Health, which at one point was the focus of the WallStreetBets message board this week, pulled back 15.3% on Thursday.Clean Energy Fuels, which rallied more than 31% just Wednesday, tumbled 15.6%.\nMEME STOCKS TAKING A HIT\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\nCHANGE\n%CHANGE\n\n\n\n\nGME\nGameStop Corp\n220.39\n-82.17\n-27.1582\n\n\nAMC\nAMC Entertainment Holdings Inc\n42.81\n-6.53\n-13.2347\n\n\nCLNE\nClean Energy Fuels Corp\n10.99\n-2.03\n-15.5914\n\n\nCLOV\nClover Health Investments Corp\n14.34\n-2.58\n-15.2482\n\n\n\nIf the January trading mania is any guide, it's not surprising that these latest rallies are turning out to be short-lived. A CNBC PRO analysis found that on average, Reddit stocks' runs lasted nine trading days from the start to their first big drop during the initial frenzy at the beginning of 2021.\nCNBC identified the starting point for five stocks popular on message boards earlier this year — GameStop, AMC,Bed Bath & Beyond,BlackBerryandKoss— by finding the first time each stocks' single-day trading volume at least doubled its 30-day moving average of shares traded. That typically represents the point at which a flurry of new investors took interest in a stock that was not being heavily traded.\nOn Thursday, GameStop investors seemed to be running for the exits afterthe company said it appointed former Amazon executive Matt Furlong as its new CEO.It also picked another Amazon veteran, Mike Recupero, as chief financial officer. Meanwhile the company's fiscal first-quarter resultsshowed sales up 25% and a narrower loss than it reported a year ago.\nThe decline in stock came as GameStop also said it may sell as many as 5 million shares. Additional shares dilute the value of existing shareholders' stakes. The stock is still up more than 1,000% on the year, however.\nAMC is down for a second straight day after soaring 83% last week. The movie theater chain, which was on the brink of bankruptcy not long ago, managed to sell 20 million shares in two separate deals last week amid the rally,generating around $800 million in capital.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183307572,"gmtCreate":1623305110796,"gmtModify":1704200504653,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aape. artificial ape","listText":"Aape. artificial ape","text":"Aape. artificial ape","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183307572","repostId":"2142210925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142210925","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623289980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142210925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142210925","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the","content":"<p>Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2</p>\n<p>An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.</p>\n<p>The Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMOM\">$(AMOM)$</a> on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.</p>\n<p>Electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> and online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.</p>\n<p>The standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.</p>\n<p>This was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.</p>\n<p>\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.</p>\n<p>The top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$(QCOM)$</a>, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$(PM)$</a>, social-media player Snap <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">$(EW)$</a>, and orthodontics group Align Technology <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALGN\">$(ALGN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>After the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB), retailers Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and Home Depot <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">$(HD)$</a>, software company Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$(ADBE)$</a>, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">$(TXN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.</p>\n<p>AMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .</p>\n<p>AMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.</p>\n<p>AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.</p>\n<p>The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRFT\">$(QRFT)$</a>; a U.S. large cap dividend index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDIV.UK\">$(HDIV.UK)$</a>; and a U.S. value index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVQ\">$(NVQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.</p>\n<p>But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.</p>\n<p>Advocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 09:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2</p>\n<p>An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.</p>\n<p>The Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMOM\">$(AMOM)$</a> on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.</p>\n<p>Electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> and online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.</p>\n<p>The standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.</p>\n<p>This was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.</p>\n<p>\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.</p>\n<p>The top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$(QCOM)$</a>, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$(PM)$</a>, social-media player Snap <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">$(EW)$</a>, and orthodontics group Align Technology <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALGN\">$(ALGN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>After the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB), retailers Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and Home Depot <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">$(HD)$</a>, software company Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$(ADBE)$</a>, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">$(TXN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.</p>\n<p>AMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .</p>\n<p>AMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.</p>\n<p>AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.</p>\n<p>The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRFT\">$(QRFT)$</a>; a U.S. large cap dividend index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDIV.UK\">$(HDIV.UK)$</a>; and a U.S. value index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVQ\">$(NVQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.</p>\n<p>But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.</p>\n<p>Advocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TXN":"德州仪器","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","ALGN":"艾利科技","EW":"爱德华兹","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMOM":"QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF","SNAP":"Snap Inc","HD":"家得宝","ADBE":"Adobe","QCOM":"高通","WMT":"沃尔玛","PM":"菲利普莫里斯","AMZN":"亚马逊","03086":"华夏纳指","NVDA":"英伟达","09086":"华夏纳指-U","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142210925","content_text":"Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2\nAn exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.\nThe Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM $(AMOM)$ on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.\nElectric-car maker Tesla $(TSLA)$ and online retailer Amazon $(AMZN)$ represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia $(NVDA)$, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.\nThe standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop $(GME)$, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.\nThis was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC $(AMC)$, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.\nGameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.\n\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.\nThe top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm $(QCOM)$, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris $(PM)$, social-media player Snap $(SNAP)$, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences $(EW)$, and orthodontics group Align Technology $(ALGN)$.\nAfter the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant Facebook (FB), retailers Walmart $(WMT)$ and Home Depot $(HD)$, software company Adobe $(ADBE)$, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments $(TXN)$.\n\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.\nAMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .\nAMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.\nAMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.\nThe fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index $(QRFT)$; a U.S. large cap dividend index $(HDIV.UK)$; and a U.S. value index $(NVQ)$.\nThe entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.\nBut Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.\nAdvocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566111551860327","authorId":"3566111551860327","name":"Jo5tarz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdaa131f223c2f17b3669bce62cc05e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566111551860327","authorIdStr":"3566111551860327"},"content":"Optimus Prime Ape has joined the battle! [Wow]","text":"Optimus Prime Ape has joined the battle! [Wow]","html":"Optimus Prime Ape has joined the battle! [Wow]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324320688,"gmtCreate":1615966718744,"gmtModify":1704789021499,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"love bullish sentiments&nbsp;","listText":"love bullish sentiments&nbsp;","text":"love bullish sentiments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324320688","repostId":"1180242005","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325226576,"gmtCreate":1615903120595,"gmtModify":1704788226726,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"i like the stock","listText":"i like the stock","text":"i like the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325226576","repostId":"1122286945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122286945","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615902195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122286945?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122286945","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(March 16) GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday. The Reddit favorite vide","content":"<p>(March 16)&nbsp;GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday.&nbsp;The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1c0801a7e42bda21ddd62a9cd23005\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-16 21:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 16)&nbsp;GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday.&nbsp;The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1c0801a7e42bda21ddd62a9cd23005\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122286945","content_text":"(March 16) GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday. The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9019536083,"gmtCreate":1648607031489,"gmtModify":1676534363865,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hope war can stop asap","listText":"hope war can stop asap","text":"hope war can stop asap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019536083","repostId":"2223587811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223587811","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1648594673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223587811?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 06:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223587811","media":"Reuters","summary":"U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve invertsUkraine-Russia meeting ends with some progressDow up 0.9","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve inverts</li><li>Ukraine-Russia meeting ends with some progress</li><li>Dow up 0.97%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.84%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&amp;P notching their fourth straight session of gains, on optimism some progress was being made toward a deal to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>Prices eased for oil and other commodities, helping calm concerns about rising inflation and the path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has started hiking interest rates to combat rising prices.</p><p>&#34;If you look over the course of the month this war has been going on, the market has priced in much more bad news than good news,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.</p><p>&#34;It certainly shows the market has a natural coiled spring that will be a reaction function to any good news and we saw a bit of that this morning, but everything will have to be taken with a grain of salt and we will have to see things actually play out versus being actually talked about.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 338.3 points, or 0.97%, to 35,294.19, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 56.08 points, or 1.23%, to 4,631.6 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 264.73 points, or 1.84%, to 14,619.64.</p><p>After a dismal start to the year for stocks that saw the S&amp;P 500 fall into a correction, commonly referred to as a drop of more than 10% from its most recent high, the benchmark index is now down less than 3% on the year.</p><p>Still, there were signs of market nervousness that the Fed could make a policy mistake that leads to a slowdown, or possibly a recession, in the economy as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury inverted for the first time since September 2019.</p><p>&#34;While I think the ultimate result of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle is a recession, I do not expect it to occur quickly. Historically speaking, all recessions are preceded by 2s10s inversions, but not all inversions result in recessions,&#34; said Ellis Phifer, managing director, fixed income research, at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.</p><p>After slumping more than 2% on Monday, the S&amp;P energy index (.SPNY) was the only declining sector as crude prices fell more than 1%.</p><p>As the conflict in Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, already rising prices saw more upward pressure on commodities such as wheat, energy and metals.</p><p>But even with the recent surge in inflation, data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a one-year low in March, while the current labor environment favors workers.</p><p>Real estate (.SPLRCR), up nearly 3% on the session, was the best performing sector, which indicates some investors may see inflation remaining but no recession on the horizon. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for the group since Jan. 28.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx Corp </a> gained 3.70% after the global delivery conglomerate named operating chief Raj Subramaniam as its top boss. read more</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.22 billion shares, compared with the 14 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.97-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 38 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies on Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-30 06:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve inverts</li><li>Ukraine-Russia meeting ends with some progress</li><li>Dow up 0.97%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.84%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&amp;P notching their fourth straight session of gains, on optimism some progress was being made toward a deal to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>Prices eased for oil and other commodities, helping calm concerns about rising inflation and the path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has started hiking interest rates to combat rising prices.</p><p>&#34;If you look over the course of the month this war has been going on, the market has priced in much more bad news than good news,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.</p><p>&#34;It certainly shows the market has a natural coiled spring that will be a reaction function to any good news and we saw a bit of that this morning, but everything will have to be taken with a grain of salt and we will have to see things actually play out versus being actually talked about.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 338.3 points, or 0.97%, to 35,294.19, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 56.08 points, or 1.23%, to 4,631.6 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 264.73 points, or 1.84%, to 14,619.64.</p><p>After a dismal start to the year for stocks that saw the S&amp;P 500 fall into a correction, commonly referred to as a drop of more than 10% from its most recent high, the benchmark index is now down less than 3% on the year.</p><p>Still, there were signs of market nervousness that the Fed could make a policy mistake that leads to a slowdown, or possibly a recession, in the economy as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury inverted for the first time since September 2019.</p><p>&#34;While I think the ultimate result of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle is a recession, I do not expect it to occur quickly. Historically speaking, all recessions are preceded by 2s10s inversions, but not all inversions result in recessions,&#34; said Ellis Phifer, managing director, fixed income research, at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.</p><p>After slumping more than 2% on Monday, the S&amp;P energy index (.SPNY) was the only declining sector as crude prices fell more than 1%.</p><p>As the conflict in Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, already rising prices saw more upward pressure on commodities such as wheat, energy and metals.</p><p>But even with the recent surge in inflation, data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a one-year low in March, while the current labor environment favors workers.</p><p>Real estate (.SPLRCR), up nearly 3% on the session, was the best performing sector, which indicates some investors may see inflation remaining but no recession on the horizon. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for the group since Jan. 28.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx Corp </a> gained 3.70% after the global delivery conglomerate named operating chief Raj Subramaniam as its top boss. read more</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.22 billion shares, compared with the 14 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.97-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 38 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","FDX":"联邦快递","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4131":"航空货运与物流","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","RJF":"瑞杰金融",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2223587811","content_text":"U.S. 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve invertsUkraine-Russia meeting ends with some progressDow up 0.97%, S&P 500 up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.84%(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P notching their fourth straight session of gains, on optimism some progress was being made toward a deal to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Prices eased for oil and other commodities, helping calm concerns about rising inflation and the path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has started hiking interest rates to combat rising prices.\"If you look over the course of the month this war has been going on, the market has priced in much more bad news than good news,\" said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.\"It certainly shows the market has a natural coiled spring that will be a reaction function to any good news and we saw a bit of that this morning, but everything will have to be taken with a grain of salt and we will have to see things actually play out versus being actually talked about.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 338.3 points, or 0.97%, to 35,294.19, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 56.08 points, or 1.23%, to 4,631.6 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 264.73 points, or 1.84%, to 14,619.64.After a dismal start to the year for stocks that saw the S&P 500 fall into a correction, commonly referred to as a drop of more than 10% from its most recent high, the benchmark index is now down less than 3% on the year.Still, there were signs of market nervousness that the Fed could make a policy mistake that leads to a slowdown, or possibly a recession, in the economy as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury inverted for the first time since September 2019.\"While I think the ultimate result of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle is a recession, I do not expect it to occur quickly. Historically speaking, all recessions are preceded by 2s10s inversions, but not all inversions result in recessions,\" said Ellis Phifer, managing director, fixed income research, at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.After slumping more than 2% on Monday, the S&P energy index (.SPNY) was the only declining sector as crude prices fell more than 1%.As the conflict in Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks, already rising prices saw more upward pressure on commodities such as wheat, energy and metals.But even with the recent surge in inflation, data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a one-year low in March, while the current labor environment favors workers.Real estate (.SPLRCR), up nearly 3% on the session, was the best performing sector, which indicates some investors may see inflation remaining but no recession on the horizon. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for the group since Jan. 28.FedEx Corp  gained 3.70% after the global delivery conglomerate named operating chief Raj Subramaniam as its top boss. read moreVolume on U.S. exchanges was 13.22 billion shares, compared with the 14 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.97-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 38 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169073604,"gmtCreate":1623810600808,"gmtModify":1703820184335,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"is it really a no brainer though?","listText":"is it really a no brainer though?","text":"is it really a no brainer though?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169073604","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127823989","pubTimestamp":1623253090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127823989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127823989","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.Amazonis one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM throug","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon maintains high advertising potential.</li>\n <li>The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.</li>\n <li>The company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.</p>\n<p>Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.</p>\n<p>The retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.</p>\n<p>We still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.</p>\n<p><b>Product</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.</p>\n<p>In its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.</p>\n<p>This first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99378da746d0c3e0141d21e45729e0d\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.</p>\n<p>According toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Prime</b></p>\n<p>We all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.</p>\n<p>A chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.</p>\n<p>Amazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ee6071f10355c56905089335e248a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Starting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.</p>\n<p>2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.</p>\n<p>In 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.</p>\n<p>In 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.</p>\n<p>In 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.</p>\n<p>In 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.</p>\n<p>In 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.</p>\n<p>In 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.</p>\n<p>Finally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.</p>\n<p>The evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.</p>\n<p>Prime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98abbd226ea68e7b6dd19537677a9888\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Emarketer, Statista</p>\n<p>Given the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.</p>\n<p>Below is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250693f17a1239d59514520d8656fecb\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Prices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).</p>\n<p>The first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Penetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.</p>\n<p>The Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.</p>\n<p>The maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5636145e9a1d04a4f1d4f1643c0550a1\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.</p>\n<p>There are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.</p>\n<p>Currently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.</p>\n<p>Market penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa586d6b9e788420999aa48c50811040\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.</p>\n<p><b>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)</b></p>\n<p>More than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.</p>\n<p>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.</p>\n<p>FBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1165bbedf3c99919df3b86f97386eb31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b35107ea150c8462f41cf6ff2f1975\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual report, FactSet estimates</p>\n<p>With the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d093110e0653de7cd4b486dbcf1543f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.</p>\n<p>For orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Small classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.</li>\n <li>Large sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.</li>\n <li>Large unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Small and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.</p>\n<p>A key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.</p>\n<p>Intuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.</p>\n<p>2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.</p>\n<p>This has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab81f81d8d08e98fa4819e90b6a553e1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb5e8f0ce6c11a4e1a96e2ab8002586\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Growth in line with all of the above.</p>\n<p>Amazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.</p>\n<p>In the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeec3e1927a51a580d7007e6caba3c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Chaddick Institute</p>\n<p>In Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.</p>\n<p>The current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.</p>\n<p>And all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.</p>\n<p>Following the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.</p>\n<p>Is there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a8276c53a9261ed6a84a8607ce87e9\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Between them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.</p>\n<p>Considering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.</p>\n<p>We can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.</p>\n<p><b>AWS</b></p>\n<p>We believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.</p>\n<p>There should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931481c0a035bcced96f4f401235488\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a64e7975829481aa0bedba683c33fa\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.</p>\n<p>Amazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.</p>\n<p>Backlog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.</p>\n<p>The backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e0033a5094a6f45b6cf02363014fcd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual Report &amp; Morgan Stanley Estimates</p>\n<p>This graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.</p>\n<p><b>Supermarket</b></p>\n<p>The supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.</p>\n<p>The opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.</p>\n<p>Amazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)</p>\n<p>On the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.</p>\n<p>Therefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.</p>\n<p>Having the ability to do click &amp; collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.</p>\n<p>The current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.</p>\n<p>Reviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.</p>\n<p>In a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.</p>\n<p>On the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.</p>\n<p>To get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177141503cc09a782b0fc3ec7df8cd63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.</p>\n<p>In addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f30cc5515047623531828738fa6180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Especially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Ads</b></p>\n<p>This is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1174f49304a8d987eeffaabd69393d14\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.</p>\n<p>Considering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.</p>\n<p>Advertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af8cc7425a991f2e6d6e94f71d29fbd\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.</p>\n<p>It is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18aa88ac767b673ccddb587eb8bc7d01\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Amazon Healthcare</b></p>\n<p>Although you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.</p>\n<p>Amazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.</p>\n<p>With Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Make an appointment</li>\n <li>In-person follow-up care (select states only)</li>\n <li>Medical examinations</li>\n <li>24/7 service team, 365 days a year.</li>\n <li>Recipes delivered to your home.</li>\n <li>Vaccines.</li>\n <li>Virtual consultation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Within the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.</p>\n<p>Amazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.</p>\n<p>Amazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.</p>\n<p>Concerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.</p>\n<p>The combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.</p>\n<p>It is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.</li>\n <li>In 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.</li>\n <li>Late 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.</li>\n <li>Reported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.</li>\n <li>September 2019 launches Amazon Care.</li>\n <li>B2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.</li>\n <li>March 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.</li>\n <li>Launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Selling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:</p>\n<p>The final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.</p>\n<p>For any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).</p>\n<p>The Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.</p>\n<p>An important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.</p>\n<p>There are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Pharmacy:</b>allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:</b>part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Prime:</b>Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Understanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Retail sale of medicines</li>\n <li>B2B sales of medical devices</li>\n <li>Online medical care.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Gaming and Twitch</b></p>\n<p>Amazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>In 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.</li>\n <li>Also in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.</li>\n <li>In 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.</li>\n <li>In 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"</li>\n <li>2018 acquires GameSparks.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.</p>\n<p>The future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.</p>\n<p>In the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.</p>\n<p>Distribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.</p>\n<p>The new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.</p>\n<p><b>Music and Video</b></p>\n<p>The $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.</p>\n<p>Through the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).</p>\n<p>MGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.</p>\n<p>With 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.</p>\n<p>MGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.</p>\n<p>We do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.</p>\n<p>As for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&amp;A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.</p>\n<p>When it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?</p>\n<p>In the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.</p>\n<p><b>Venture Capital</b></p>\n<p>Amazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.</p>\n<p>The Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).</p>\n<p>It has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Covering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.</li>\n <li>Bezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.</li>\n <li>Regulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.</li>\n <li>A slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.</li>\n <li>That all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Waymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.</p>\n<p>Google with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495a0f59e25265e21fd12b548f93b3f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\">Amazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.</p>\n<p>In the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b304d1db1ca34a56deecd34a2e89a2c\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"344\"><b>Working Capital</b></p>\n<p>To understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.</p>\n<p>As margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b00f1639fd6bc917998f038f3ff60ec\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.</p>\n<p>Just by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d462cfa442b191e5e27213180f5ad9b\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"336\">If we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8546c6d09613082ad5d6e1fdef607bea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\">Under these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0e31590998b2af7f9f7209db841f59\" tg-width=\"251\" tg-height=\"410\">We would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.</p>\n<p>It is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127823989","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.\nAmazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.\nThe retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.\nOn the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.\nWe still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.\nProduct\nAmazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.\nIn its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.\nThis first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.\nThanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.\nAccording toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.\nAmazon Prime\nWe all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.\nA chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.\nAmazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.\nStarting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.\n2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.\nIn 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.\nIn 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.\nIn 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.\nIn 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.\nIn 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.\nIn 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.\nFinally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.\nThe evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.\nPrime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.\nSource: Emarketer, Statista\nGiven the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.\nBelow is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:\nPrices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).\nThe first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.\nPenetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.\nThe Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.\nThe maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:\nIn certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.\nThere are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.\nCurrently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.\nMarket penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.\nCurrently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA)\nMore than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.\nFBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.\nThe fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.\nAmazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:\nSource: Annual report, FactSet estimates\nWith the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.\nThe graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.\nFor orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:\n\nSmall classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.\nLarge sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.\nLarge unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.\n\nSmall and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.\nA key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.\nIntuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.\n2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.\nThis has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.\nThis Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:\nGrowth in line with all of the above.\nAmazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.\nIn the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.\nSource: Chaddick Institute\nIn Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.\nThe current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.\nAnd all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.\nFollowing the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.\nIs there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.\nBetween them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.\nConsidering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.\nWe can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.\nAWS\nWe believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.\nThere should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.\nAs for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.\nAmazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.\nAmazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.\nBacklog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.\nThe backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.\nSource: Annual Report & Morgan Stanley Estimates\nThis graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.\nSupermarket\nThe supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.\nThe opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.\nAmazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)\nOn the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.\nTherefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.\nHaving the ability to do click & collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.\nThe current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.\nReviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.\nIn a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.\nOn the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.\nTo get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:\nLooking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.\nIn addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.\nEspecially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.\nAmazon Ads\nThis is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:\nThis evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.\nConsidering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.\nAdvertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).\nAmazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.\nIt is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:\n\nAmazon Healthcare\nAlthough you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.\nAmazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.\nWith Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:\n\nMake an appointment\nIn-person follow-up care (select states only)\nMedical examinations\n24/7 service team, 365 days a year.\nRecipes delivered to your home.\nVaccines.\nVirtual consultation.\n\nWithin the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.\nAmazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.\nAmazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.\nConcerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.\nThe combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.\nIt is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:\n\nIn 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.\nIn 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.\nLate 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.\nReported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.\nSeptember 2019 launches Amazon Care.\nB2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.\nMarch 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.\nLaunch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.\n\nSelling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.\nAmazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:\nThe final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.\nFor any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).\nThe Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.\nAn important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.\nThere are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:\n\nAmazon Pharmacy:allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.\n\n\nPillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.\n\n\nAmazon Prime:Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.\n\nUnderstanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:\n\nRetail sale of medicines\nB2B sales of medical devices\nOnline medical care.\n\nGaming and Twitch\nAmazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:\n\nIn 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.\nAlso in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.\nIn 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.\nIn 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"\n2018 acquires GameSparks.\n\nOf all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.\nThe future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.\nIn the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.\nDistribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.\nThe new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.\nMusic and Video\nThe $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.\nThrough the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).\nMGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.\nWith 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.\nMGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.\nWe do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.\nAs for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.\nWhen it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?\nIn the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.\nVenture Capital\nAmazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.\nThe Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).\nIt has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.\nRisks\n\nCovering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.\nBezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.\nRegulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.\nA slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.\nThat all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.\n\nWaymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.\nGoogle with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:\nAmazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.\nIn the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:\nWorking Capital\nTo understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.\nProfitability\nAmazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.\nAs margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.\n\nValuation\nAmazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.\nIt currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.\nJust by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.\nIt currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.\nIf we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:\nUnder these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:\nWe would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.\nConclusion\nAmazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.\nIt is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186082428,"gmtCreate":1623465358264,"gmtModify":1704204383094,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"meme ftw","listText":"meme ftw","text":"meme ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186082428","repostId":"1194129273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194129273","pubTimestamp":1623368710,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194129273?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 07:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme stocks hit a wall on Thursday with GameStop, AMC and Clover down big","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194129273","media":"cnbc","summary":"The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy co","content":"<div>\n<p>The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy come, easy go for many speculative names favored by retail investors includingAMC ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme stocks hit a wall on Thursday with GameStop, AMC and Clover down big</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stocks hit a wall on Thursday with GameStop, AMC and Clover down big\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 07:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy come, easy go for many speculative names favored by retail investors includingAMC ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/meme-stocks-hit-a-wall-on-thursday-with-gamestop-amc-and-clover-down-big.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1194129273","content_text":"The meme stock mania created by the day trading Reddit crowd fizzled a bit on Thursday.\nIt's easy come, easy go for many speculative names favored by retail investors includingAMC EntertainmentandGameStopas they suffered double-digit losses on Thursday, pulling back from their recent explosive rallies. The video game retailer shed 27.2% even after announcing two high-profile executive hires from Amazon. The movie theater chain dropped 13.2% on Thursday, turning negative on the week.\nAnother red-hot meme stockClover Health, which at one point was the focus of the WallStreetBets message board this week, pulled back 15.3% on Thursday.Clean Energy Fuels, which rallied more than 31% just Wednesday, tumbled 15.6%.\nMEME STOCKS TAKING A HIT\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\nCHANGE\n%CHANGE\n\n\n\n\nGME\nGameStop Corp\n220.39\n-82.17\n-27.1582\n\n\nAMC\nAMC Entertainment Holdings Inc\n42.81\n-6.53\n-13.2347\n\n\nCLNE\nClean Energy Fuels Corp\n10.99\n-2.03\n-15.5914\n\n\nCLOV\nClover Health Investments Corp\n14.34\n-2.58\n-15.2482\n\n\n\nIf the January trading mania is any guide, it's not surprising that these latest rallies are turning out to be short-lived. A CNBC PRO analysis found that on average, Reddit stocks' runs lasted nine trading days from the start to their first big drop during the initial frenzy at the beginning of 2021.\nCNBC identified the starting point for five stocks popular on message boards earlier this year — GameStop, AMC,Bed Bath & Beyond,BlackBerryandKoss— by finding the first time each stocks' single-day trading volume at least doubled its 30-day moving average of shares traded. That typically represents the point at which a flurry of new investors took interest in a stock that was not being heavily traded.\nOn Thursday, GameStop investors seemed to be running for the exits afterthe company said it appointed former Amazon executive Matt Furlong as its new CEO.It also picked another Amazon veteran, Mike Recupero, as chief financial officer. Meanwhile the company's fiscal first-quarter resultsshowed sales up 25% and a narrower loss than it reported a year ago.\nThe decline in stock came as GameStop also said it may sell as many as 5 million shares. Additional shares dilute the value of existing shareholders' stakes. The stock is still up more than 1,000% on the year, however.\nAMC is down for a second straight day after soaring 83% last week. The movie theater chain, which was on the brink of bankruptcy not long ago, managed to sell 20 million shares in two separate deals last week amid the rally,generating around $800 million in capital.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324320688,"gmtCreate":1615966718744,"gmtModify":1704789021499,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"love bullish sentiments&nbsp;","listText":"love bullish sentiments&nbsp;","text":"love bullish sentiments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324320688","repostId":"1180242005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180242005","pubTimestamp":1615966420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180242005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-17 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 could surge 8% on strong seasonality and a bullish technical pattern, BofA says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180242005","media":"Business Insider","summary":"The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.","content":"<ul>\n <li><b>The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.</b></li>\n <li><b>The bank pointed to strong seasonality and a developing cup and handle pattern that generates a 4,270 price target on the S&amp;P 500.</b></li>\n <li><b>\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November to April period and is up 66% of the time,\" BofA said.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Record highs in the stock market will continue to be made over the next few weeks if a Tuesday note from Bank of America pans out.</p>\n<p>The bank expects the S&amp;P 500 to hit a 4,270 price target derived from&nbsp;a bullish cup and handle pattern, which represents potential upside of 8% from Monday's close.</p>\n<p>And it's a bullish backdrop for stocks to continue their uptrend based on seasonality data, as April is the strongest month of the best 6-month period of the year, according to the note.</p>\n<p>\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November-April period and is up 66% of the time with an average return of 1.37%,\" BofA said. The bank's seasonality analysis is based on data going back to 1928.</p>\n<p>On top of that, April is the second best month behind July in terms of average return, and the second best month behind December in terms of the percentage of time up, according to BofA.</p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, BofA highlights big picture levels on the S&amp;P 500, based on a bullish cup and handle pattern formed last year. A cup and handle often resembles a cup, formed by a basing pattern that typically looks like a \"U,\" followed by a handle that is formed by a short-term down trend. This pattern usually extends an uptrend that is already in place.</p>\n<p>BofA's 4,270 price target on the S&amp;P 500 is based on a measured move of the depth of the cup formed in March of 2020 and the eventual breakout later in July.</p>\n<p>Also favoring continued upside for the S&amp;P 500 is new highs in Advance/Decline line, which indicates that underlying market breadth is strong. The Advance/Decline line measures the difference of stocks that are moving higher or lower on a daily basis.</p>\n<p>\"A bullish A-D line sets up the S&amp;P 500 for a breakout above 3,950 - 3,960 that would favor upside to 4,065 next with the 2020 cup and handle target at 4,270,\" BofA said.</p>\n<p>And if the S&amp;P 500 does falter, investors should look to big picture support levels at 3,700, 3,550, and 3,200, BofA highlighted.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5e8c7f39d815d6d80277066e3cc5145\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Bank of America</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 could surge 8% on strong seasonality and a bullish technical pattern, BofA says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 could surge 8% on strong seasonality and a bullish technical pattern, BofA says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-to-strong-seasonality-bullish-technicals-bofa-2021-3-1030216115><strong>Business Insider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.\nThe bank pointed to strong seasonality and a developing cup and handle pattern that generates a 4,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-to-strong-seasonality-bullish-technicals-bofa-2021-3-1030216115\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-to-strong-seasonality-bullish-technicals-bofa-2021-3-1030216115","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180242005","content_text":"The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.\nThe bank pointed to strong seasonality and a developing cup and handle pattern that generates a 4,270 price target on the S&P 500.\n\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November to April period and is up 66% of the time,\" BofA said.\n\nRecord highs in the stock market will continue to be made over the next few weeks if a Tuesday note from Bank of America pans out.\nThe bank expects the S&P 500 to hit a 4,270 price target derived from a bullish cup and handle pattern, which represents potential upside of 8% from Monday's close.\nAnd it's a bullish backdrop for stocks to continue their uptrend based on seasonality data, as April is the strongest month of the best 6-month period of the year, according to the note.\n\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November-April period and is up 66% of the time with an average return of 1.37%,\" BofA said. The bank's seasonality analysis is based on data going back to 1928.\nOn top of that, April is the second best month behind July in terms of average return, and the second best month behind December in terms of the percentage of time up, according to BofA.\nFrom a technical perspective, BofA highlights big picture levels on the S&P 500, based on a bullish cup and handle pattern formed last year. A cup and handle often resembles a cup, formed by a basing pattern that typically looks like a \"U,\" followed by a handle that is formed by a short-term down trend. This pattern usually extends an uptrend that is already in place.\nBofA's 4,270 price target on the S&P 500 is based on a measured move of the depth of the cup formed in March of 2020 and the eventual breakout later in July.\nAlso favoring continued upside for the S&P 500 is new highs in Advance/Decline line, which indicates that underlying market breadth is strong. The Advance/Decline line measures the difference of stocks that are moving higher or lower on a daily basis.\n\"A bullish A-D line sets up the S&P 500 for a breakout above 3,950 - 3,960 that would favor upside to 4,065 next with the 2020 cup and handle target at 4,270,\" BofA said.\nAnd if the S&P 500 does falter, investors should look to big picture support levels at 3,700, 3,550, and 3,200, BofA highlighted.\nBank of America","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183307572,"gmtCreate":1623305110796,"gmtModify":1704200504653,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aape. artificial ape","listText":"Aape. artificial ape","text":"Aape. artificial ape","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183307572","repostId":"2142210925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142210925","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623289980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142210925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142210925","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the","content":"<p>Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2</p>\n<p>An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.</p>\n<p>The Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMOM\">$(AMOM)$</a> on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.</p>\n<p>Electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> and online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.</p>\n<p>The standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.</p>\n<p>This was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.</p>\n<p>\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.</p>\n<p>The top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$(QCOM)$</a>, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$(PM)$</a>, social-media player Snap <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">$(EW)$</a>, and orthodontics group Align Technology <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALGN\">$(ALGN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>After the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB), retailers Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and Home Depot <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">$(HD)$</a>, software company Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$(ADBE)$</a>, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">$(TXN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.</p>\n<p>AMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .</p>\n<p>AMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.</p>\n<p>AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.</p>\n<p>The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRFT\">$(QRFT)$</a>; a U.S. large cap dividend index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDIV.UK\">$(HDIV.UK)$</a>; and a U.S. value index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVQ\">$(NVQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.</p>\n<p>But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.</p>\n<p>Advocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 09:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2</p>\n<p>An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.</p>\n<p>The Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMOM\">$(AMOM)$</a> on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.</p>\n<p>Electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> and online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.</p>\n<p>The standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.</p>\n<p>This was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.</p>\n<p>\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.</p>\n<p>The top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$(QCOM)$</a>, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$(PM)$</a>, social-media player Snap <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">$(EW)$</a>, and orthodontics group Align Technology <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALGN\">$(ALGN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>After the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB), retailers Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and Home Depot <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">$(HD)$</a>, software company Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$(ADBE)$</a>, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">$(TXN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.</p>\n<p>AMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .</p>\n<p>AMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.</p>\n<p>AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.</p>\n<p>The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRFT\">$(QRFT)$</a>; a U.S. large cap dividend index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDIV.UK\">$(HDIV.UK)$</a>; and a U.S. value index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVQ\">$(NVQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.</p>\n<p>But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.</p>\n<p>Advocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TXN":"德州仪器","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","ALGN":"艾利科技","EW":"爱德华兹","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMOM":"QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF","SNAP":"Snap Inc","HD":"家得宝","ADBE":"Adobe","QCOM":"高通","WMT":"沃尔玛","PM":"菲利普莫里斯","AMZN":"亚马逊","03086":"华夏纳指","NVDA":"英伟达","09086":"华夏纳指-U","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142210925","content_text":"Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2\nAn exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.\nThe Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM $(AMOM)$ on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.\nElectric-car maker Tesla $(TSLA)$ and online retailer Amazon $(AMZN)$ represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia $(NVDA)$, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.\nThe standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop $(GME)$, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.\nThis was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC $(AMC)$, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.\nGameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.\n\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.\nThe top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm $(QCOM)$, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris $(PM)$, social-media player Snap $(SNAP)$, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences $(EW)$, and orthodontics group Align Technology $(ALGN)$.\nAfter the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant Facebook (FB), retailers Walmart $(WMT)$ and Home Depot $(HD)$, software company Adobe $(ADBE)$, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments $(TXN)$.\n\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.\nAMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .\nAMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.\nAMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.\nThe fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index $(QRFT)$; a U.S. large cap dividend index $(HDIV.UK)$; and a U.S. value index $(NVQ)$.\nThe entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.\nBut Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.\nAdvocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566111551860327","authorId":"3566111551860327","name":"Jo5tarz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdaa131f223c2f17b3669bce62cc05e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566111551860327","authorIdStr":"3566111551860327"},"content":"Optimus Prime Ape has joined the battle! [Wow]","text":"Optimus Prime Ape has joined the battle! [Wow]","html":"Optimus Prime Ape has joined the battle! [Wow]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325226576,"gmtCreate":1615903120595,"gmtModify":1704788226726,"author":{"id":"3573641972423071","authorId":"3573641972423071","name":"tothemoon88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573641972423071","authorIdStr":"3573641972423071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"i like the stock","listText":"i like the stock","text":"i like the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325226576","repostId":"1122286945","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}