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04-02

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Continue going down

02-07

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong]

2023-12-27

Test and test and test

2023-12-23

Test and tested 👯‍♀️💃

2023-05-28

Of course, it is not possible for every quarter, but now is just the beginning. If you don't ride the wave, then when? [Facepalm] [Facepalm] Writer must have short like many others and is losing big time now [LOL] [LOL] [LOL]

Nvidia: Don't Wait Till Everyone Starts Selling?

2022-12-15

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Don't catch the dropping parang toh especially when u can't see if it is near the bottom. My thought is gonna continue to free fall. Hmm I don't think will go lower than $90 though some said drop till $75. [Happy] Well don't understand what EM has got up in his brain, but he definitely need to tweet less.

2022-12-15

@LuckyPiggie this lagi best... Buy $75[Happy] [LOL] [Happy] Writer must have short Telsa big time [Happy] [Happy]

Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop

2022-12-08

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Should be down a little more

2022-12-01

Manipulator [Happy] [Happy]

Was Wednesday's Stock Market Surge Premature?

2022-11-26

Interesting data

@Optionskiwi:How is November treating you?

2022-11-22

Writer seem to have lots of grudges against Zuckerberg [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

Don’t Make the Mega-Mistake of Buying META Stock Now

2022-11-09

Whether or not it hit 1 trillion in 2025, price will almost certain be higher than now. Do u agree?

Will Meta Platforms Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?

2022-11-07

$THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO LTD(Y92.SI)$

2022-10-20

Yeah man, just like i do not your advice, I suggest others don't either [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

Apple: I'm Siding With Wall Street This Time

2022-10-14

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$Let end the week with bull

2022-10-13

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$About time to rebound a little

2022-10-07

$Alibaba(BABA)$Last day of the week, u can do it

2022-10-05

$Alibaba(BABA)$Yes baba up moreup more

2022-10-02

$Alibaba(BABA)$Come on baba, u can do it

2022-10-02

Price too attractive, already bought some. Hope to see it goes up these 2 weeks

Alibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> Continue going down","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> Continue going down","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Continue going down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290975667609824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271303615078512,"gmtCreate":1707274015725,"gmtModify":1707274018239,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271303615078512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256516829733080,"gmtCreate":1703645363862,"gmtModify":1703645368415,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test and test and test&nbsp;","listText":"Test and test and test&nbsp;","text":"Test and test and test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256516829733080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255101193597120,"gmtCreate":1703294069788,"gmtModify":1703294073915,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test and tested 👯‍♀️💃","listText":"Test and tested 👯‍♀️💃","text":"Test and tested 👯‍♀️💃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255101193597120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979029383,"gmtCreate":1685260645243,"gmtModify":1685260650888,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Of course,&nbsp;it is not possible for every quarter, but now is just the beginning. If you don't ride the wave, then when?&nbsp;[Facepalm]&nbsp;[Facepalm]&nbsp; Writer must have short like many others&nbsp;and is losing big time now&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"Of course,&nbsp;it is not possible for every quarter, but now is just the beginning. If you don't ride the wave, then when?&nbsp;[Facepalm]&nbsp;[Facepalm]&nbsp; Writer must have short like many others&nbsp;and is losing big time now&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"Of course, it is not possible for every quarter, but now is just the beginning. If you don't ride the wave, then when? [Facepalm] [Facepalm] Writer must have short like many others and is losing big time now [LOL] [LOL] [LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979029383","repostId":"2338634435","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2338634435","pubTimestamp":1685230200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2338634435?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-28 07:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Don't Wait Till Everyone Starts Selling?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338634435","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia sent bearish investors fleeing for the hills as the stock made a new all-time high.CEO","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Nvidia sent bearish investors fleeing for the hills as the stock made a new all-time high.</p></li><li><p>CEO Jensen Huang and his team played its AI picks-and-shovels card to maximum effect while posting blockbuster guidance, putting numbers to the hype.</p></li><li><p>However, the market quickly priced in the optimism, lowering the risk/reward appeal to investors who missed adding pre-earnings.</p></li><li><p>Can Nvidia continue to post such massive outperformance in guidance every quarter? It&#39;s essential to maintain sanity and don&#39;t keep chasing unsustainable momentum.</p></li><li><p>Taking some profits/exposure off the table with NVDA still overvalued is the right thing to do. Keeping an allocation to continue riding the hype train until the momentum dissipates.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b298b511b485b5e5562841f5ca6aaef8\" alt=\"Justin Sullivan\" title=\"Justin Sullivan\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"512\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><p>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) sent bearish investors running for cover as NVDA re-tested its November 2021 highs, following a blowout guidance, putting solid numbers behind the generative AI hype.</p><p>CEO Jensen Huang&#39;s answer to the bears (including me) is that Nvidia is clearly the AI picks and shovels market leader, trusted by &#34;cloud service providers or CSPs, consumer Internet companies and enterprises.&#34;</p><p>With AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) nowhere close to disrupting Nvidia&#39;s full-stack ecosystem, the company is well-placed to help the world build its generative AI infrastructure.</p><p>Huang&#39;s stunning guidance suggests that Nvidia is ready to post YoY revenue growth of about 64% in the upcoming quarter, led by its leadership in data center GPUs. In addition, management added that underlying demand by the cloud service providers or CSPs is robust. As such, the company has &#34;visibility right now for [its] data center demand that has probably extended out a few quarters.&#34;</p><p>The company has strengthened its supply chain resilience by making big orders with its suppliers. As a result, Nvidia&#39;s orders have pleasantly surprised the semi-supply chain, as DIGITIMES highlighted that it &#34;has placed rush orders with TSMC (TSM) for its H100 and A100 GPUs, as well as the H800 and A800 designed specifically for China.&#34;</p><p>As such, it has lifted the gloom over Taiwan Semiconductor or TSMC&#39;s FY23 revenue growth projections, which is expected to see a significant boost. Accordingly, the &#34;rush orders&#34; have raised TSMC&#39;s 5nm process utilization rate &#34;close to full capacity.&#34; It has also increased the utilization rates for its 6nm and 7nm process family.</p><p>Therefore, the orders are in, suggesting why the market rewarded Nvidia with a 25% increase to close Thursday&#39;s (May 25) session. In addition, I highlighted in a recent Intel article stressing why Nvidia is ready to take on Intel&#39;s data center CPU leadership by remodeling it with its data center GPUs.</p><p>With an unmatched software ecosystem at the moment, Nvidia is riding the AI hype in full swing while leaving its arch-rivals behind. However, Nvidia is in no mood to rest on its laurels, as Huang cautioned that the competition is highly intense:</p><blockquote>Regarding competition, we have competition from every direction. Start-ups, really, really well funded and innovative start-ups, countless of them all over the world. We have competitions from existing semiconductor companies. We have competition from CSPs with internal projects, and many of you know about most of these. And so we&#39;re mindful of competition all the time, and we get competition all the time. - <em>Nvidia FQ1&#39;24 earnings call</em></blockquote><p>However, what&#39;s important for investors to recognize is that Nvidia is focused on offering its customers the most cost-effective package (hardware and software).</p><p>The high costs of offering high-quality AI solutions and continued cloud optimization by enterprise customers suggest that service providers will likely be very sensitive to costs.</p><p>As such, Nvidia believes it has such a significant lead in this aspect that Huang is confident that the company offers its customers the &#34;lowest-cost solution.&#34;</p><p>With that in mind, Nvidia likely sees significant opportunities to reach into the $1T data center installed base. Moreover, with generative AI demanding more intense computational resources, Nvidia&#39;s solutions would likely see GPU CapEx spending increasing markedly from just &#34;10% historically.&#34;</p><p>However, the critical question is whether Huang and his team can consistently deliver such monstrous guidance, stunning analysts and investors moving ahead.</p><p>While I do not doubt that, Nvidia remains a core holding in my portfolio, I already took the opportunity to unload some exposure at the highs yesterday. Interestingly, given the significantly revised forward estimates following management&#39;s guidance, NVDA&#39;s overvaluation has not &#34;worsened&#34; compared to pre-earnings.</p><p>It&#39;s still overvalued but to a similar extent based on my blended fair value estimates. In addition, its pre-earnings NTM adjusted P/E of 70x is way higher than its post-earnings adjusted P/E of 42.3x.</p><p>Therefore, if we consider NVDA&#39;s relative and intrinsic valuation per se, investors shouldn&#39;t be stunned by the market&#39;s reaction. Instead, market operators quickly priced in the company&#39;s blockbuster guidance appropriately.</p><p>However, NVDA&#39;s price action still suggests significant caution as more FOMO buyers rush in, attempting to buy the potential breakout opportunity. As a result, I assessed that the possibility of another spike or two to force out early short-sellers is possible. If that happens, I would consider closing all my positions in NVDA and wait for a steep pullback that could help level off a significant level of optimism before I return.</p><p>While I reiterate my Sell rating, I urge investors not to close all their positions but take exposure off progressively to hedge against further upside volatility until they see a decisive bull trap.</p><p><em>Important note: Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. The rating is also not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Don't Wait Till Everyone Starts Selling?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Don't Wait Till Everyone Starts Selling?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-28 07:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607729-nvidia-dont-wait-till-everyone-starts-selling><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia sent bearish investors fleeing for the hills as the stock made a new all-time high.CEO Jensen Huang and his team played its AI picks-and-shovels card to maximum effect while posting ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607729-nvidia-dont-wait-till-everyone-starts-selling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","SG9999004220.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Asia Dividend Equity Fund  SGD","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607729-nvidia-dont-wait-till-everyone-starts-selling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2338634435","content_text":"SummaryNvidia sent bearish investors fleeing for the hills as the stock made a new all-time high.CEO Jensen Huang and his team played its AI picks-and-shovels card to maximum effect while posting blockbuster guidance, putting numbers to the hype.However, the market quickly priced in the optimism, lowering the risk/reward appeal to investors who missed adding pre-earnings.Can Nvidia continue to post such massive outperformance in guidance every quarter? It's essential to maintain sanity and don't keep chasing unsustainable momentum.Taking some profits/exposure off the table with NVDA still overvalued is the right thing to do. Keeping an allocation to continue riding the hype train until the momentum dissipates.Justin SullivanNVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) sent bearish investors running for cover as NVDA re-tested its November 2021 highs, following a blowout guidance, putting solid numbers behind the generative AI hype.CEO Jensen Huang's answer to the bears (including me) is that Nvidia is clearly the AI picks and shovels market leader, trusted by \"cloud service providers or CSPs, consumer Internet companies and enterprises.\"With AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) nowhere close to disrupting Nvidia's full-stack ecosystem, the company is well-placed to help the world build its generative AI infrastructure.Huang's stunning guidance suggests that Nvidia is ready to post YoY revenue growth of about 64% in the upcoming quarter, led by its leadership in data center GPUs. In addition, management added that underlying demand by the cloud service providers or CSPs is robust. As such, the company has \"visibility right now for [its] data center demand that has probably extended out a few quarters.\"The company has strengthened its supply chain resilience by making big orders with its suppliers. As a result, Nvidia's orders have pleasantly surprised the semi-supply chain, as DIGITIMES highlighted that it \"has placed rush orders with TSMC (TSM) for its H100 and A100 GPUs, as well as the H800 and A800 designed specifically for China.\"As such, it has lifted the gloom over Taiwan Semiconductor or TSMC's FY23 revenue growth projections, which is expected to see a significant boost. Accordingly, the \"rush orders\" have raised TSMC's 5nm process utilization rate \"close to full capacity.\" It has also increased the utilization rates for its 6nm and 7nm process family.Therefore, the orders are in, suggesting why the market rewarded Nvidia with a 25% increase to close Thursday's (May 25) session. In addition, I highlighted in a recent Intel article stressing why Nvidia is ready to take on Intel's data center CPU leadership by remodeling it with its data center GPUs.With an unmatched software ecosystem at the moment, Nvidia is riding the AI hype in full swing while leaving its arch-rivals behind. However, Nvidia is in no mood to rest on its laurels, as Huang cautioned that the competition is highly intense:Regarding competition, we have competition from every direction. Start-ups, really, really well funded and innovative start-ups, countless of them all over the world. We have competitions from existing semiconductor companies. We have competition from CSPs with internal projects, and many of you know about most of these. And so we're mindful of competition all the time, and we get competition all the time. - Nvidia FQ1'24 earnings callHowever, what's important for investors to recognize is that Nvidia is focused on offering its customers the most cost-effective package (hardware and software).The high costs of offering high-quality AI solutions and continued cloud optimization by enterprise customers suggest that service providers will likely be very sensitive to costs.As such, Nvidia believes it has such a significant lead in this aspect that Huang is confident that the company offers its customers the \"lowest-cost solution.\"With that in mind, Nvidia likely sees significant opportunities to reach into the $1T data center installed base. Moreover, with generative AI demanding more intense computational resources, Nvidia's solutions would likely see GPU CapEx spending increasing markedly from just \"10% historically.\"However, the critical question is whether Huang and his team can consistently deliver such monstrous guidance, stunning analysts and investors moving ahead.While I do not doubt that, Nvidia remains a core holding in my portfolio, I already took the opportunity to unload some exposure at the highs yesterday. Interestingly, given the significantly revised forward estimates following management's guidance, NVDA's overvaluation has not \"worsened\" compared to pre-earnings.It's still overvalued but to a similar extent based on my blended fair value estimates. In addition, its pre-earnings NTM adjusted P/E of 70x is way higher than its post-earnings adjusted P/E of 42.3x.Therefore, if we consider NVDA's relative and intrinsic valuation per se, investors shouldn't be stunned by the market's reaction. Instead, market operators quickly priced in the company's blockbuster guidance appropriately.However, NVDA's price action still suggests significant caution as more FOMO buyers rush in, attempting to buy the potential breakout opportunity. As a result, I assessed that the possibility of another spike or two to force out early short-sellers is possible. If that happens, I would consider closing all my positions in NVDA and wait for a steep pullback that could help level off a significant level of optimism before I return.While I reiterate my Sell rating, I urge investors not to close all their positions but take exposure off progressively to hedge against further upside volatility until they see a decisive bull trap.Important note: Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. The rating is also not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921486655,"gmtCreate":1671112481978,"gmtModify":1676538492261,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>Don't catch the dropping parang toh especially when u can't see if it is near the bottom. My thought is gonna continue to free fall.&nbsp;Hmm I don't think will go lower than $90 though some said drop till $75.&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp; Well don't understand what EM has got up in his brain, but he definitely need to tweet less.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>Don't catch the dropping parang toh especially when u can't see if it is near the bottom. My thought is gonna continue to free fall.&nbsp;Hmm I don't think will go lower than $90 though some said drop till $75.&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp; Well don't understand what EM has got up in his brain, but he definitely need to tweet less.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Don't catch the dropping parang toh especially when u can't see if it is near the bottom. My thought is gonna continue to free fall. Hmm I don't think will go lower than $90 though some said drop till $75. [Happy] Well don't understand what EM has got up in his brain, but he definitely need to tweet less.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":46,"commentSize":46,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921486655","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"hahha ... maybe he bought twitter just to catch the 19yr old boy that tracking him [LOL] [LOL] expensive game sia [Duh] ...","text":"hahha ... maybe he bought twitter just to catch the 19yr old boy that tracking him [LOL] [LOL] expensive game sia [Duh] ...","html":"hahha ... maybe he bought twitter just to catch the 19yr old boy that tracking him [LOL] [LOL] expensive game sia [Duh] ..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921536827,"gmtCreate":1671084752570,"gmtModify":1676538487627,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4107063207857540\">@LuckyPiggie&nbsp;</a>this lagi best...&nbsp;Buy $75[Happy]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp; Writer must have short Telsa big time&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4107063207857540\">@LuckyPiggie&nbsp;</a>this lagi best...&nbsp;Buy $75[Happy]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp; Writer must have short Telsa big time&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"@LuckyPiggie this lagi best... Buy $75[Happy] [LOL] [Happy] Writer must have short Telsa big time [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921536827","repostId":"2291571778","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2291571778","pubTimestamp":1671084084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2291571778?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-15 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291571778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more int","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla is a stock I&#39;d be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.</li><li>I&#39;ve covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.</li><li>Nevertheless, I always rated it &#39;hold&#39; because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.</li><li>In this article, I explain why I&#39;d buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it&#39;s worth more than that.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecebf7dbd139bf94cb13d4dce8d8da49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dimitrios Kambouris</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.</p><p>This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,<i>very</i> upset.</p><p>Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.</p><p>For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.</p><p>In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.</p><h2>My Past Coverage of Tesla</h2><p>In past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:</p><ul><li><p>$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”</p></li><li><p>$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”</p></li><li><p>A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”</p></li></ul><p>Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.</p><p>Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.</p><p>The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.</p><p>EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.</p><p>It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.</p><p>There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like <b>General Motors</b> (GM) and Chinese companies like <b>NIO</b> (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.</p><p>There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.</p><h2>Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75</h2><p>In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:</p><ol><li><p>Interest rates are rising.</p></li><li><p>There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.</p></li></ol><p>Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.</p><p>There are two ways to do this:</p><ol><li><p>Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.</p></li><li><p>Lower the growth assumption.</p></li></ol><p>The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.</p><p>I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.</p><p>Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f7a6ae9f247b5aac92b75634596020\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:</p><ul><li><p>$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).</p></li><li><p>$111 (high discount rate, high growth).</p></li></ul><p>The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.</p><p>This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4099":"汽车制造商","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291571778","content_text":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.Nevertheless, I always rated it 'hold' because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.In this article, I explain why I'd buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it's worth more than that.Dimitrios KambourisTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,very upset.Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.My Past Coverage of TeslaIn past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like General Motors (GM) and Chinese companies like NIO (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:Interest rates are rising.There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.There are two ways to do this:Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.Lower the growth assumption.The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).$111 (high discount rate, high growth).The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"haha 75 was back 2 yrs ago .. if he bought at that time , of course can talk big . [LOL] .. so another 50% down is quite possible as some said.","text":"haha 75 was back 2 yrs ago .. if he bought at that time , of course can talk big . [LOL] .. so another 50% down is quite possible as some said.","html":"haha 75 was back 2 yrs ago .. if he bought at that time , of course can talk big . [LOL] .. so another 50% down is quite possible as some said."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920843094,"gmtCreate":1670468431619,"gmtModify":1676538374924,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Should be down a little more","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Should be down a little more","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Should be down a little more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920843094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"130 ok ? [Tongue] maybe in jan or feb 🤔","text":"130 ok ? [Tongue] maybe in jan or feb 🤔","html":"130 ok ? [Tongue] maybe in jan or feb 🤔"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965915538,"gmtCreate":1669870811125,"gmtModify":1676538260834,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Manipulator&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Manipulator&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Manipulator [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965915538","repostId":"2288612530","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288612530","pubTimestamp":1669861884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288612530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-01 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Was Wednesday's Stock Market Surge Premature?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288612530","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What the Federal Reserve chair said wasn't any big surprise, but Wall Street heard what it wanted to hear.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>Markets surged after Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech on monetary policy.</li><li>Investors focused on the idea that the Fed will moderate the pace of future rate increases.</li><li>That, however, doesn&#39;t mean that the central bank won&#39;t keep monetary policy at restrictive levels for an extended period.</li></ul><p>Stock market participants had been looking forward to Wednesday for quite a while, as they anticipated getting valuable insight when Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave a speech about his views on monetary policy. As it turned out, Powell&#39;s comments were well-received by investors, and that resulted in solid gains of more than 2% for the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b> and even bigger advances for the <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> and <b>S&amp;P 500</b>.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a315992249cfa713089395a7fa48663d\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data source: Yahoo! Finance.</span></p><p>Until Powell began speaking in the afternoon, major market indexes were flat to slightly lower on the day. Yet even though what Powell said didn&#39;t really come as any big surprise to those who followed the relevant financial markets, it nevertheless seemed to give investors more confidence that their reading on the situation facing stock markets was correct.</p><p>That doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that the immediate future won&#39;t remain volatile, but it nevertheless led some to conclude that eventual victory over inflation and recessionary pressures was inevitable.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a9308e7ec2ef77edad00c41db7fc50\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Federal Reserve building. Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>What Powell said</h2><p>Powell continued to emphasize that there are two key components to Federal Reserve policy that some will find contradictory but that nevertheless apply. First and most important, the Fed is still concerned about the uncomfortably high level of inflation in the market.</p><p>That came at the beginning of Powell&#39;s speech, and the Fed chair emphasized that higher prices are causing substantial hardship for tens of millions of people across the nation. Such levels of price instability are fundamentally incompatible with a working economy, and current estimates of inflation, as measured by the Fed&#39;s preferred personal consumption expenditure metric, is coming in at 6%.</p><p>That left Powell to conclude that there&#39;s still a lot of work to do before inflation comes under control, let alone before it gets back to the 2% long-term target that the Fed prefers to see. Indeed, Powell warned that he believes the eventual level at which interest rates will rise sufficiently to get inflation under control will likely be higher than he thought at the time of the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s meeting in September.</p><p>Yet at the same time, Powell acknowledged that using interest-rate increases to moderate inflationary pressures is an imprecise science. He also said there are definite lags between the time the central bank boosts rates and when the effects of tighter monetary policy actually show up in economic data, particularly concerning inflation.</p><p>Therefore, Powell said, &#34;It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down.&#34; In addressing the timing of such moderation, the Fed chair said that a slowing of rate increases could come as soon as its December meeting.</p><p>Market watchers immediately took that comment to mean that the Fed would likely raise interest rates by just half a percentage point in December, slowing from the 0.75 percentage-point boosts that the central bank has made at its last four consecutive meetings. That, in turn, ignited the massive stock market rally, and longer-term interest rates also moved lower on the news, as bond investors foresaw a shorter period of time to fight inflation.</p><h2>Not a shocker</h2><p>Those watching the credit markets shouldn&#39;t have been surprised by what Powell said because it was already largely reflected in certain securities prices. As early as four weeks ago, federal funds rate futures showed that investors thought it more likely than not that the Fed would do a December increase of only half a percentage point.</p><p>Moreover, the short-term jump in stocks seemingly ignored the rest of Powell&#39;s monetary-policy comments. The chair repeated that restrictively high interest rates could be necessary for a significant period of time, and the central bank remains extremely wary of being premature in reversing course. Indeed, Powell pointed to several data points that remain worrisome, including above-normal wage growth, rising prices for housing services, and continued disruptions in labor markets that began with the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Of course, it&#39;s possible that stock markets have overreacted in falling so far from their record levels in late 2021, so a reversal -- in light of things going mostly as expected -- is actually warranted. Regardless, investors need to be prepared for it to take more time than they might think for the Fed&#39;s inflation-fighting saga to play out to the bitter end.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was Wednesday's Stock Market Surge Premature?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas Wednesday's Stock Market Surge Premature?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-01 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/30/was-wednesdays-stock-market-surge-premature/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSMarkets surged after Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech on monetary policy.Investors focused on the idea that the Fed will moderate the pace of future rate increases.That, however, doesn'...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/30/was-wednesdays-stock-market-surge-premature/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/30/was-wednesdays-stock-market-surge-premature/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288612530","content_text":"KEY POINTSMarkets surged after Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech on monetary policy.Investors focused on the idea that the Fed will moderate the pace of future rate increases.That, however, doesn't mean that the central bank won't keep monetary policy at restrictive levels for an extended period.Stock market participants had been looking forward to Wednesday for quite a while, as they anticipated getting valuable insight when Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave a speech about his views on monetary policy. As it turned out, Powell's comments were well-received by investors, and that resulted in solid gains of more than 2% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and even bigger advances for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.Data source: Yahoo! Finance.Until Powell began speaking in the afternoon, major market indexes were flat to slightly lower on the day. Yet even though what Powell said didn't really come as any big surprise to those who followed the relevant financial markets, it nevertheless seemed to give investors more confidence that their reading on the situation facing stock markets was correct.That doesn't necessarily mean that the immediate future won't remain volatile, but it nevertheless led some to conclude that eventual victory over inflation and recessionary pressures was inevitable.Federal Reserve building. Image source: Getty Images.What Powell saidPowell continued to emphasize that there are two key components to Federal Reserve policy that some will find contradictory but that nevertheless apply. First and most important, the Fed is still concerned about the uncomfortably high level of inflation in the market.That came at the beginning of Powell's speech, and the Fed chair emphasized that higher prices are causing substantial hardship for tens of millions of people across the nation. Such levels of price instability are fundamentally incompatible with a working economy, and current estimates of inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditure metric, is coming in at 6%.That left Powell to conclude that there's still a lot of work to do before inflation comes under control, let alone before it gets back to the 2% long-term target that the Fed prefers to see. Indeed, Powell warned that he believes the eventual level at which interest rates will rise sufficiently to get inflation under control will likely be higher than he thought at the time of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting in September.Yet at the same time, Powell acknowledged that using interest-rate increases to moderate inflationary pressures is an imprecise science. He also said there are definite lags between the time the central bank boosts rates and when the effects of tighter monetary policy actually show up in economic data, particularly concerning inflation.Therefore, Powell said, \"It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down.\" In addressing the timing of such moderation, the Fed chair said that a slowing of rate increases could come as soon as its December meeting.Market watchers immediately took that comment to mean that the Fed would likely raise interest rates by just half a percentage point in December, slowing from the 0.75 percentage-point boosts that the central bank has made at its last four consecutive meetings. That, in turn, ignited the massive stock market rally, and longer-term interest rates also moved lower on the news, as bond investors foresaw a shorter period of time to fight inflation.Not a shockerThose watching the credit markets shouldn't have been surprised by what Powell said because it was already largely reflected in certain securities prices. As early as four weeks ago, federal funds rate futures showed that investors thought it more likely than not that the Fed would do a December increase of only half a percentage point.Moreover, the short-term jump in stocks seemingly ignored the rest of Powell's monetary-policy comments. The chair repeated that restrictively high interest rates could be necessary for a significant period of time, and the central bank remains extremely wary of being premature in reversing course. Indeed, Powell pointed to several data points that remain worrisome, including above-normal wage growth, rising prices for housing services, and continued disruptions in labor markets that began with the COVID-19 pandemic.Of course, it's possible that stock markets have overreacted in falling so far from their record levels in late 2021, so a reversal -- in light of things going mostly as expected -- is actually warranted. Regardless, investors need to be prepared for it to take more time than they might think for the Fed's inflation-fighting saga to play out to the bitter end.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"look at xpeng.. shot to Pluto . [LOL] alth result wasnt good.","text":"look at xpeng.. shot to Pluto . [LOL] alth result wasnt good.","html":"look at xpeng.. shot to Pluto . [LOL] alth result wasnt good."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966163029,"gmtCreate":1669442609261,"gmtModify":1676538197888,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting data","listText":"Interesting data","text":"Interesting data","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966163029","repostId":"9966085104","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9966085104,"gmtCreate":1669347714009,"gmtModify":1676538187056,"author":{"id":"4098923898631570","authorId":"4098923898631570","name":"Optionskiwi","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba8b1a5fea08b02c9b059887b1227fcd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"How is November treating you? ","htmlText":"With the US share market closed for Thanksgiving it is a good opportunity to reflect on the returns of the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$ </a>month and year to date and exam what may lie ahead. 2022 has been a difficult year for stocks with the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$ </a>falling 27.5% from its January intraday high of 4,818 to an intraday low of 3,491 in mid-October.From this October low the market has rallied 15.6% to 4,034 on Wednesday.So, will this bear market rally succeed where others (January, March, May and June) have failed this year? &nbsp;Time will tell!Mid Term Election EffectWhat we do know is that historically stocks tend to sell off in the two quarters ahead of midterm elections an","listText":"With the US share market closed for Thanksgiving it is a good opportunity to reflect on the returns of the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$ </a>month and year to date and exam what may lie ahead. 2022 has been a difficult year for stocks with the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$ </a>falling 27.5% from its January intraday high of 4,818 to an intraday low of 3,491 in mid-October.From this October low the market has rallied 15.6% to 4,034 on Wednesday.So, will this bear market rally succeed where others (January, March, May and June) have failed this year? &nbsp;Time will tell!Mid Term Election EffectWhat we do know is that historically stocks tend to sell off in the two quarters ahead of midterm elections an","text":"With the US share market closed for Thanksgiving it is a good opportunity to reflect on the returns of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ month and year to date and exam what may lie ahead. 2022 has been a difficult year for stocks with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ falling 27.5% from its January intraday high of 4,818 to an intraday low of 3,491 in mid-October.From this October low the market has rallied 15.6% to 4,034 on Wednesday.So, will this bear market rally succeed where others (January, March, May and June) have failed this year? Time will tell!Mid Term Election EffectWhat we do know is that historically stocks tend to sell off in the two quarters ahead of midterm elections an","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb553fc6f643b81362aa8bf938fff613","width":"389","height":"349"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0997ec0ac508e958ab4efe9fc58e92e4","width":"753","height":"583"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70402eae820a937070f30fb2257b5bf0","width":"487","height":"1164"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966085104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968997746,"gmtCreate":1669090437786,"gmtModify":1676538150554,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Writer seem to have lots of grudges against Zuckerberg&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Writer seem to have lots of grudges against Zuckerberg&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Writer seem to have lots of grudges against Zuckerberg [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968997746","repostId":"1146987521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146987521","pubTimestamp":1668987993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146987521?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-21 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t Make the Mega-Mistake of Buying META Stock Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146987521","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg released an apology to the company’s employees.This doesn’","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Meta Platforms</b> (<b>META</b>) CEO Mark Zuckerberg released an apology to the company’s employees.</li><li>This doesn’t mean that Zuckerberg will back off of his stubborn wager on the metaverse.</li><li>Investors should stay cautious on META stock.</li></ul><p>Without a doubt, the fate of <b>Meta Platforms</b> (NASDAQ: <b>META</b>) stock rests in the hands of its founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg. Going forward, META will have to be on board with Zuckerberg’s insistence on morphing Meta into a metaverse business.</p><p>Before taking a position, however, financial traders should carefully read the CEO’s seemingly apologetic message to Meta’s employees. After some consideration, you might doubt young Zuck’s sincerity, and his willingness to reassess his business strategy.</p><p>When one person controls a company completely, the result can be a huge success or a dismal failure. It’s too soon to know how Meta Platforms will end up in five or 10 years. If 2022 is any indication, however, then the outlook doesn’t look bright.</p><p>This isn’t to suggest that Zuckerberg is deliberately trying to run his business into the ground. Yet, a stubborn leader can cause significant damage, and the last thing you need now is to invest in a metaverse-obsessed Titanic.</p><p><b>META Stock Is on a Collision Course</b></p><p>The Meta Platforms perma-bulls might point out that META stock had a rally recently. During this time, however, practically the entire stock market moved up due to a lower-than-expected inflation print.</p><p>Thus, a rising tide lifted all boats, including Meta Platforms. Even with that quick bump, though, Meta shares were far below their early-January price of around $338.</p><p>In other words, stubborn shareholders have been wrong for most of 2022, and just maybe a stubborn CEO is to blame. Quite frankly, the metaverse simply hasn’t been the huge hit that Zuckerberg probably expected it to be.</p><p>Sure, Millennials and Zoomers are open-minded about technology, but they don’t necessarily want to spend a lot of money on a special headset during this time of high inflation.</p><p><b>Zuckerberg’s Apology Just Isn’t Enough</b></p><p>It’s one thing to apologize; making meaningful changes is another matter entirely. Prospective investors should ask themselves: What specifically is Meta Platforms’ CEO doing to return the company to its former status and prosperity?</p><p>Yes, Zuckerberg is laying off over 11,000 employees, or roughly 11% of Meta’s workforce. However, this is likely to decrease morale at the company and could reduce the quality of Meta Platforms’ customer service. Besides, some analysts doubt that the job cuts will have a substantial positive impact on Meta’s bottom line.</p><p>Moreover, even while Meta Platforms is laying off so many workers, the company is still guiding for a whopping $34 billion to $37 billion in 2023capital expenditures.</p><p>So, while Zuckerberg can say he’s “especially sorry” in a letter to Meta’s employees, this shouldn’t provide much comfort or confidence to the company’s laid-off workers – or to the shareholders, for that matter.</p><p><b>What You Can Do Now</b></p><p>It’s been suggested, and rightly so, that Meta Platformshired too many people and is only now seriously considering retrenchment. While Zuckerberg’s job cuts are well-publicized, they may be a case of “too little, too late.”</p><p>An apology letter simply won’t be enough to convince skeptical prospective investors. The question remains: Is Zuckerberg really prepared to cut back on his headlong foray into the metaverse?</p><p>So far, there’s scant evidence that this is the case. Therefore, it’s just not the right time to invest in META stock.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t Make the Mega-Mistake of Buying META Stock Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t Make the Mega-Mistake of Buying META Stock Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/11/dont-make-the-mega-mistake-of-buying-meta-stock-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg released an apology to the company’s employees.This doesn’t mean that Zuckerberg will back off of his stubborn wager on the metaverse.Investors should stay ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/11/dont-make-the-mega-mistake-of-buying-meta-stock-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/11/dont-make-the-mega-mistake-of-buying-meta-stock-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146987521","content_text":"Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg released an apology to the company’s employees.This doesn’t mean that Zuckerberg will back off of his stubborn wager on the metaverse.Investors should stay cautious on META stock.Without a doubt, the fate of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) stock rests in the hands of its founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg. Going forward, META will have to be on board with Zuckerberg’s insistence on morphing Meta into a metaverse business.Before taking a position, however, financial traders should carefully read the CEO’s seemingly apologetic message to Meta’s employees. After some consideration, you might doubt young Zuck’s sincerity, and his willingness to reassess his business strategy.When one person controls a company completely, the result can be a huge success or a dismal failure. It’s too soon to know how Meta Platforms will end up in five or 10 years. If 2022 is any indication, however, then the outlook doesn’t look bright.This isn’t to suggest that Zuckerberg is deliberately trying to run his business into the ground. Yet, a stubborn leader can cause significant damage, and the last thing you need now is to invest in a metaverse-obsessed Titanic.META Stock Is on a Collision CourseThe Meta Platforms perma-bulls might point out that META stock had a rally recently. During this time, however, practically the entire stock market moved up due to a lower-than-expected inflation print.Thus, a rising tide lifted all boats, including Meta Platforms. Even with that quick bump, though, Meta shares were far below their early-January price of around $338.In other words, stubborn shareholders have been wrong for most of 2022, and just maybe a stubborn CEO is to blame. Quite frankly, the metaverse simply hasn’t been the huge hit that Zuckerberg probably expected it to be.Sure, Millennials and Zoomers are open-minded about technology, but they don’t necessarily want to spend a lot of money on a special headset during this time of high inflation.Zuckerberg’s Apology Just Isn’t EnoughIt’s one thing to apologize; making meaningful changes is another matter entirely. Prospective investors should ask themselves: What specifically is Meta Platforms’ CEO doing to return the company to its former status and prosperity?Yes, Zuckerberg is laying off over 11,000 employees, or roughly 11% of Meta’s workforce. However, this is likely to decrease morale at the company and could reduce the quality of Meta Platforms’ customer service. Besides, some analysts doubt that the job cuts will have a substantial positive impact on Meta’s bottom line.Moreover, even while Meta Platforms is laying off so many workers, the company is still guiding for a whopping $34 billion to $37 billion in 2023capital expenditures.So, while Zuckerberg can say he’s “especially sorry” in a letter to Meta’s employees, this shouldn’t provide much comfort or confidence to the company’s laid-off workers – or to the shareholders, for that matter.What You Can Do NowIt’s been suggested, and rightly so, that Meta Platformshired too many people and is only now seriously considering retrenchment. While Zuckerberg’s job cuts are well-publicized, they may be a case of “too little, too late.”An apology letter simply won’t be enough to convince skeptical prospective investors. The question remains: Is Zuckerberg really prepared to cut back on his headlong foray into the metaverse?So far, there’s scant evidence that this is the case. Therefore, it’s just not the right time to invest in META stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"or you work for Meta [LOL] [Chuckle]","text":"or you work for Meta [LOL] [Chuckle]","html":"or you work for Meta [LOL] [Chuckle]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987443985,"gmtCreate":1667973056948,"gmtModify":1676537992966,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whether or not it hit 1 trillion in 2025, price will almost certain be higher than now. Do u agree?","listText":"Whether or not it hit 1 trillion in 2025, price will almost certain be higher than now. Do u agree?","text":"Whether or not it hit 1 trillion in 2025, price will almost certain be higher than now. Do u agree?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987443985","repostId":"2281997054","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281997054","pubTimestamp":1667971668,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2281997054?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-09 13:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Meta Platforms Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281997054","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The comeback story could be glorious.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors often look for the next big thing, and wonder which stock will become the next trillion-dollar company. But social media conglomerate <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a></b> has already reached that mountaintop. Unfortunately, the stock&#39;s staggering downfall has valued the company at roughly $240 billion today.</p><p>So can Meta Platforms regain its mojo and bounce back to a trillion-dollar market valuation by 2025? It&#39;s hard seeing any stock rising four-fold any time soon in this market, but Meta&#39;s potential recovery isn&#39;t as farfetched as it sounds once you dig into the numbers. Here is what investors need to know.</p><h2>Falling from grace</h2><p>Sometimes you need to look backward before moving forward. Investors should understand Meta&#39;s sharp decline, because it goes beyond today&#39;s bear market. Meta&#39;s struggles come primarily from Wall Street&#39;s worries over Meta&#39;s aggressive investments in Reality Labs. CEO Mark Zuckerberg believes in the metaverse, and sees a big opportunity for Meta when (or if) it becomes mainstream.</p><p>You can see below just how much Meta&#39;s spending has increased. The money spent on Reality Labs hasn&#39;t yet produced any returns for shareholders -- in fact, the business segment has lost $9.4 billion year-to-date. Zuckerberg signaled during the company&#39;s earnings call that spending would <i>increase</i> in 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c8041532b647327c035660ff678287\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>META Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</span></p><p>Add in a downcycle in advertising spending spurred by recession fears, and Wall Street is seemingly more negative on Meta Platforms than possibly at any time in the company&#39;s history. That sentiment is reflected in Meta&#39;s valuation, which at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.6 is its lowest ever.</p><h2>The journey to $1 trillion</h2><p>So how do you go from a beaten-down stock that nobody likes to a trillion-dollar company by 2025? First, remember that a company&#39;s share price doesn&#39;t necessarily reflect the quality of the business. Yes, Meta&#39;s dealing with challenges right now, but Wall Street believes that Meta&#39;s profits will still grow over time. A consensus of analyst estimates calls for Meta&#39;s earnings-per-share (EPS) to increase a total of 33% over the next several years and hit $12 by 2025.</p><p>One would hope that Meta&#39;s business will right itself by then; the advertising industry is cyclical, and should rebound with the economy. Reality Labs could look a lot different by then versus today, and perhaps Wall Street will again love Meta Platforms.</p><p>Meta needs a share price of approximately $379 to hit a $1 trillion market capitalization using the current number of outstanding shares. The company routinely repurchases shares, but let&#39;s assume that analysts factored that into their EPS estimates. Hypothetically, if Meta did earn $12 per share and traded at its median P/E over the past decade of 34 P/E, the resulting share price would be $408, enough to reach the target $1 trillion market value.</p><h2>Remember this</h2><p>Successfully achieving this would mean investors got a four-fold return on their investment if they bought shares today. That&#39;s an excellent return, probably beating the market over those years.</p><p>But this exercise isn&#39;t necessarily to split hairs about whether Meta will or won&#39;t be worth a certain amount by a specific year. Instead, it&#39;s a thought exercise that shows you just how attractive Meta&#39;s stock has become. If it hits analyst EPS estimates, the stock could maintain its current bottom-of-the-barrel P/E and still return 33% over three years. I would argue that a lot has gone wrong if sentiment (reflected by P/E) doesn&#39;t budge an inch higher over the next three years.</p><p>The most likely outcome seems that Meta&#39;s ad business eventually picks back up, and Zuckerberg extracts <i>at least some</i> value out of Reality Labs. The bar is pretty low here, which is why Meta&#39;s stock is so compelling at these prices. You don&#39;t need a home run; hitting a single to first base can still be a very successful investment, and anything beyond that is icing on the cake.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Meta Platforms Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Meta Platforms Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 13:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/08/will-meta-platforms-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors often look for the next big thing, and wonder which stock will become the next trillion-dollar company. But social media conglomerate Meta Platforms has already reached that mountaintop. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/08/will-meta-platforms-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/08/will-meta-platforms-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281997054","content_text":"Investors often look for the next big thing, and wonder which stock will become the next trillion-dollar company. But social media conglomerate Meta Platforms has already reached that mountaintop. Unfortunately, the stock's staggering downfall has valued the company at roughly $240 billion today.So can Meta Platforms regain its mojo and bounce back to a trillion-dollar market valuation by 2025? It's hard seeing any stock rising four-fold any time soon in this market, but Meta's potential recovery isn't as farfetched as it sounds once you dig into the numbers. Here is what investors need to know.Falling from graceSometimes you need to look backward before moving forward. Investors should understand Meta's sharp decline, because it goes beyond today's bear market. Meta's struggles come primarily from Wall Street's worries over Meta's aggressive investments in Reality Labs. CEO Mark Zuckerberg believes in the metaverse, and sees a big opportunity for Meta when (or if) it becomes mainstream.You can see below just how much Meta's spending has increased. The money spent on Reality Labs hasn't yet produced any returns for shareholders -- in fact, the business segment has lost $9.4 billion year-to-date. Zuckerberg signaled during the company's earnings call that spending would increase in 2023.META Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YChartsAdd in a downcycle in advertising spending spurred by recession fears, and Wall Street is seemingly more negative on Meta Platforms than possibly at any time in the company's history. That sentiment is reflected in Meta's valuation, which at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.6 is its lowest ever.The journey to $1 trillionSo how do you go from a beaten-down stock that nobody likes to a trillion-dollar company by 2025? First, remember that a company's share price doesn't necessarily reflect the quality of the business. Yes, Meta's dealing with challenges right now, but Wall Street believes that Meta's profits will still grow over time. A consensus of analyst estimates calls for Meta's earnings-per-share (EPS) to increase a total of 33% over the next several years and hit $12 by 2025.One would hope that Meta's business will right itself by then; the advertising industry is cyclical, and should rebound with the economy. Reality Labs could look a lot different by then versus today, and perhaps Wall Street will again love Meta Platforms.Meta needs a share price of approximately $379 to hit a $1 trillion market capitalization using the current number of outstanding shares. The company routinely repurchases shares, but let's assume that analysts factored that into their EPS estimates. Hypothetically, if Meta did earn $12 per share and traded at its median P/E over the past decade of 34 P/E, the resulting share price would be $408, enough to reach the target $1 trillion market value.Remember thisSuccessfully achieving this would mean investors got a four-fold return on their investment if they bought shares today. That's an excellent return, probably beating the market over those years.But this exercise isn't necessarily to split hairs about whether Meta will or won't be worth a certain amount by a specific year. Instead, it's a thought exercise that shows you just how attractive Meta's stock has become. If it hits analyst EPS estimates, the stock could maintain its current bottom-of-the-barrel P/E and still return 33% over three years. I would argue that a lot has gone wrong if sentiment (reflected by P/E) doesn't budge an inch higher over the next three years.The most likely outcome seems that Meta's ad business eventually picks back up, and Zuckerberg extracts at least some value out of Reality Labs. The bar is pretty low here, which is why Meta's stock is so compelling at these prices. You don't need a home run; hitting a single to first base can still be a very successful investment, and anything beyond that is icing on the cake.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"hello hello .. u got hook into Metaverse vitual world ? Come back to reality [Tongue]","text":"hello hello .. u got hook into Metaverse vitual world ? Come back to reality [Tongue]","html":"hello hello .. u got hook into Metaverse vitual world ? Come back to reality [Tongue]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987984844,"gmtCreate":1667793502888,"gmtModify":1676537964566,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO LTD(Y92.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO LTD(Y92.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO LTD(Y92.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987984844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983214607,"gmtCreate":1666245296109,"gmtModify":1676537729364,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah man, just like i do not your advice, I suggest others don't either&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah man, just like i do not your advice, I suggest others don't either&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Yeah man, just like i do not your advice, I suggest others don't either [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983214607","repostId":"2276806764","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2276806764","pubTimestamp":1666238347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2276806764?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-20 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: I'm Siding With Wall Street This Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2276806764","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryUsually, I do not like to follow advice from Wall Street. And I suggest you do not either.How","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Usually, I do not like to follow advice from Wall Street. And I suggest you do not either.</li><li>However, I am siding with Wall Street on Apple this time.</li><li>In my view, many bearish analyses misunderstood Tim Cook only as an operation manager and drastically underestimated his innovation and marketing prowess.</li><li>Under Cook’s leadership, Apple keeps churning out iconic products like  AirPods and is also successfully transitioning into a subscriber-based model.</li><li>In terms of profitability and valuation, I see a total annual return easily in the double digits, with about 5% coming from owners’ earnings yield and 5% from organic growth.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p>There is a clear divergence of opinion regarding Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) between Main Street opinions and Wall Street opinions. As you can see from the following chart, a total of 35 Seeking Alpha Authors wrote about AAPL in the Last 30 Days. Only 1 is recommending Strong Buy. In contrast, out of a total of 44 Wall Street analysts, 26 were recommending a strong buy. On the selling end, a total of 6 SA authors are either recommending sell or strong sell. While in contrast, only 1 Wall Street analyst is recommending selling and no one recommends strong selling.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ed291efc97dbecc78a492b19a8cf75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Usually, I do not like to follow investment advice from Wall Street. Wall Street opinions are almost synonymous with herd thinking in many investors&#39; minds, and for good reasons. However, in the case of AAPL under current conditions, I am going to do something that seems absurd. I am siding with Wall Street this time. Much of the financial, profitability, and valuation considerations have been detailed in our earlier articles.</p><p>And today, I will focus the article to address an issue that was frequently mentioned in many of the bear arguments. The issue involves Tim Cook and the arguments more or less go like the following: yes, Tim Cook is a fantastic professional manager, but not an innovator. As a result, Apple under his reign is becoming less innovative, less adventurous, and more mediocre.</p><p>And next, you will see why I disagree.</p><h3>Yes, Tim Cook is a fantastic professional manager</h3><p>There is no need to argue about this at all. During Cook&#39;s tenure, Apple&#39;s market cap grew almost sevenfold to a staggering $2.3 trillion as of this writing, transforming AAPL from a tech company into a tech giant.</p><p>More importantly and fundamentally, as an operation genius, Cook has reshaped the profitability drivers for AAPL and made it more sustainable. No matter how much you love and admire Steve Jobs (like I do), AAPL has been consistently on the verge of chaos under his regain. A simple DuPont analysis elucidates this fundamental shift as shown in the chart below. At the end of the Jobs era (2010 to 2012), AAPL&#39;s profitability, measured by ROCE (return on capital employed ), was an astronomical but unsustainable 443%. Since Cook took over, the ROCE has decreased by 88.4% in relative terms to 183% from 2019 to 2021. No one likes seeing a decrease in profitability, and the decrease here seemed so dramatic.</p><p>However, if you dissect the decrease, you would see that out of the 88.4% decrease, 74% of it came from the decreased leverage, which is actually a good thing. Cook also stabilized and improved the asset utilization, which contributed a positive 6.4% to the ROCE. Then profit margin decrease contributed a negative 20.9% to the ROCE change largely due to intensified competition in the smartphone market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8ab37ef43d6df7e215214aaf8e33eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p>But he is not making Apple any less innovative</p><p>It is true that Steve Jobs, with Jony Ive behind him, delivered so many groundbreaking innovations and make Apple truly unique. It is not a tech company, but a luxury brand in my view. By the time Cook took over, innovation at the scale of creating an entirely new category like the iPhone or iPod has become much more difficult. As a matter of fact, managing AAPL&#39;s existing iconic products like the iPhone, Mac, and iPad already presents tremendous challenges. And I consider Cook&#39;s repositioning and streamlining of these existing products already a major innovation.</p><p>Furthermore, Cook has also been quietly bringing out innovative products that are massively popular and profitable at the same time. The Apple Watch and AirPods are two notable examples. He successfully adjusted the positioning of the Apple Watch after the release of the first generation. And this year, he further subdivided Ultra, a sports watch for the professional field.</p><p>The Airpods are an even more impressive demonstration of Cook&#39;s innovation capability and also his operation and marketing genius. From the appearance of AirPods to the release of the latest AirPods Pro 2, it has only been more than five years and there are only a few products in the AirPods series. But it has almost become a must-buy product for all iPhone users around the world. As a parent with a teenage kid, I have first-row seat to witness how the AirPods have become a life necessity for almost everyone in his school. Piper Sandler&#39;s data confirms the same trend: 72% of US teens own AirPods (and 87% own iPhones, 87% plan to buy one, and 30% own an Apple Watch).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71cc51fd4c3d9267f6a5c1be91428b97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: ped30.com</span></p><p>All told, IDC estimates that AirPods sales reached about 120 million pairs in 2021, accounting for half of Apple&#39;s wearable device sales and becoming the fastest-growing product line in this part of the business. With the little AirPods, Tim Cook quietly created a new category (again, not as ground-shaking as the iPhone or iPad) valued at nearly $40 billion (to put it under perspective, it is equivalent to Xiaomi&#39;s market cap).</p><p>And the genius of Cook is that, unlike the iPhone, the AirPods do not even update at high frequency and do need so many series. But it never fails to bring in beautiful sales data since its inception.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/252d16c5dbf9854fc240f685bb193c5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: idc.com</p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>Besides Apple Watch and AirPods, under Cook&#39;s leadership, AAPL has also been successfully transitioning into a subscriber-based business model and away from a hardware-based model. Cook has been building an inseparable ecosystem to connect all Apple devices and bring users a more convenient and seamless Apple experience. I see this grand plan itself as a major innovation of Tim Cook. And I also see that it has been succeeding and with almost limitless potential. Under this grand plan, buying a Mac, or an iPhone is only the beginning of the continuous purchases of other AAPL products.</p><p>Of course, there are definitely risks. Besides all the often-mentioned bearish arguments such as valuation, competition, currency headwinds, and global supply chain disruptions, I see two structural risks. The first one involves its large exposure to China, which is a key market that has been driving a good part of its growth so far. Key risks here include new lockdowns in China due to the COVID resurgence and the escalation of China-US trade tension. The second one involves a remote anti-trust risk with its expansion and dominance in several market segments.</p><p>To conclude, I am siding with Wall Street&#39;s opinion on AAPL this time. My overall impression of its finances, profitability and valuation are summarized below (and detailed in our earlier article here).</p><blockquote><i>Its current price of ~$140 corresponds to about 22x of its FW PE. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE (return on capital employed) near 100% like AAPL. At about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates (i.e., before inflation adjustments). And a 22x PE would provide about 5% owners earnings yield, leading to a total return close to double digits. For a stock like AAPL, I am always happy to buy/add when the total annual return is close to 10% or above. A 10% return is healthy enough to start with. Once you adjust for the risks (and I consider the risks from AAPL similar to treasury bonds), a 10% annual return is almost 3x of what you can get from bonds in the long term.</i></blockquote><p>In this article, I want to focus on a bearish argument surrounding Tim Cook. My thesis is to argue that he is only a fantastic professional manager but also an innovator too. The Apple Watch and especially the AirPods are good examples. The design of AirPods inherits the Apple spirit beautifully in my view. The easy-to-use features quickly made the public accept this new product with a premier price tag of around $200. And both the Apple Watch and AirPods have become a trend, an icon, and a culture just like the iPod and iPhone.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: I'm Siding With Wall Street This Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: I'm Siding With Wall Street This Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-20 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547434-apple-i-am-siding-with-wall-street-this-time><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUsually, I do not like to follow advice from Wall Street. And I suggest you do not either.However, I am siding with Wall Street on Apple this time.In my view, many bearish analyses ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547434-apple-i-am-siding-with-wall-street-this-time\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547434-apple-i-am-siding-with-wall-street-this-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2276806764","content_text":"SummaryUsually, I do not like to follow advice from Wall Street. And I suggest you do not either.However, I am siding with Wall Street on Apple this time.In my view, many bearish analyses misunderstood Tim Cook only as an operation manager and drastically underestimated his innovation and marketing prowess.Under Cook’s leadership, Apple keeps churning out iconic products like  AirPods and is also successfully transitioning into a subscriber-based model.In terms of profitability and valuation, I see a total annual return easily in the double digits, with about 5% coming from owners’ earnings yield and 5% from organic growth.ThesisThere is a clear divergence of opinion regarding Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) between Main Street opinions and Wall Street opinions. As you can see from the following chart, a total of 35 Seeking Alpha Authors wrote about AAPL in the Last 30 Days. Only 1 is recommending Strong Buy. In contrast, out of a total of 44 Wall Street analysts, 26 were recommending a strong buy. On the selling end, a total of 6 SA authors are either recommending sell or strong sell. While in contrast, only 1 Wall Street analyst is recommending selling and no one recommends strong selling.Source: Seeking Alpha dataUsually, I do not like to follow investment advice from Wall Street. Wall Street opinions are almost synonymous with herd thinking in many investors' minds, and for good reasons. However, in the case of AAPL under current conditions, I am going to do something that seems absurd. I am siding with Wall Street this time. Much of the financial, profitability, and valuation considerations have been detailed in our earlier articles.And today, I will focus the article to address an issue that was frequently mentioned in many of the bear arguments. The issue involves Tim Cook and the arguments more or less go like the following: yes, Tim Cook is a fantastic professional manager, but not an innovator. As a result, Apple under his reign is becoming less innovative, less adventurous, and more mediocre.And next, you will see why I disagree.Yes, Tim Cook is a fantastic professional managerThere is no need to argue about this at all. During Cook's tenure, Apple's market cap grew almost sevenfold to a staggering $2.3 trillion as of this writing, transforming AAPL from a tech company into a tech giant.More importantly and fundamentally, as an operation genius, Cook has reshaped the profitability drivers for AAPL and made it more sustainable. No matter how much you love and admire Steve Jobs (like I do), AAPL has been consistently on the verge of chaos under his regain. A simple DuPont analysis elucidates this fundamental shift as shown in the chart below. At the end of the Jobs era (2010 to 2012), AAPL's profitability, measured by ROCE (return on capital employed ), was an astronomical but unsustainable 443%. Since Cook took over, the ROCE has decreased by 88.4% in relative terms to 183% from 2019 to 2021. No one likes seeing a decrease in profitability, and the decrease here seemed so dramatic.However, if you dissect the decrease, you would see that out of the 88.4% decrease, 74% of it came from the decreased leverage, which is actually a good thing. Cook also stabilized and improved the asset utilization, which contributed a positive 6.4% to the ROCE. Then profit margin decrease contributed a negative 20.9% to the ROCE change largely due to intensified competition in the smartphone market.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.But he is not making Apple any less innovativeIt is true that Steve Jobs, with Jony Ive behind him, delivered so many groundbreaking innovations and make Apple truly unique. It is not a tech company, but a luxury brand in my view. By the time Cook took over, innovation at the scale of creating an entirely new category like the iPhone or iPod has become much more difficult. As a matter of fact, managing AAPL's existing iconic products like the iPhone, Mac, and iPad already presents tremendous challenges. And I consider Cook's repositioning and streamlining of these existing products already a major innovation.Furthermore, Cook has also been quietly bringing out innovative products that are massively popular and profitable at the same time. The Apple Watch and AirPods are two notable examples. He successfully adjusted the positioning of the Apple Watch after the release of the first generation. And this year, he further subdivided Ultra, a sports watch for the professional field.The Airpods are an even more impressive demonstration of Cook's innovation capability and also his operation and marketing genius. From the appearance of AirPods to the release of the latest AirPods Pro 2, it has only been more than five years and there are only a few products in the AirPods series. But it has almost become a must-buy product for all iPhone users around the world. As a parent with a teenage kid, I have first-row seat to witness how the AirPods have become a life necessity for almost everyone in his school. Piper Sandler's data confirms the same trend: 72% of US teens own AirPods (and 87% own iPhones, 87% plan to buy one, and 30% own an Apple Watch).Source: ped30.comAll told, IDC estimates that AirPods sales reached about 120 million pairs in 2021, accounting for half of Apple's wearable device sales and becoming the fastest-growing product line in this part of the business. With the little AirPods, Tim Cook quietly created a new category (again, not as ground-shaking as the iPhone or iPad) valued at nearly $40 billion (to put it under perspective, it is equivalent to Xiaomi's market cap).And the genius of Cook is that, unlike the iPhone, the AirPods do not even update at high frequency and do need so many series. But it never fails to bring in beautiful sales data since its inception.Source: idc.comRisks and final thoughtsBesides Apple Watch and AirPods, under Cook's leadership, AAPL has also been successfully transitioning into a subscriber-based business model and away from a hardware-based model. Cook has been building an inseparable ecosystem to connect all Apple devices and bring users a more convenient and seamless Apple experience. I see this grand plan itself as a major innovation of Tim Cook. And I also see that it has been succeeding and with almost limitless potential. Under this grand plan, buying a Mac, or an iPhone is only the beginning of the continuous purchases of other AAPL products.Of course, there are definitely risks. Besides all the often-mentioned bearish arguments such as valuation, competition, currency headwinds, and global supply chain disruptions, I see two structural risks. The first one involves its large exposure to China, which is a key market that has been driving a good part of its growth so far. Key risks here include new lockdowns in China due to the COVID resurgence and the escalation of China-US trade tension. The second one involves a remote anti-trust risk with its expansion and dominance in several market segments.To conclude, I am siding with Wall Street's opinion on AAPL this time. My overall impression of its finances, profitability and valuation are summarized below (and detailed in our earlier article here).Its current price of ~$140 corresponds to about 22x of its FW PE. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE (return on capital employed) near 100% like AAPL. At about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates (i.e., before inflation adjustments). And a 22x PE would provide about 5% owners earnings yield, leading to a total return close to double digits. For a stock like AAPL, I am always happy to buy/add when the total annual return is close to 10% or above. A 10% return is healthy enough to start with. Once you adjust for the risks (and I consider the risks from AAPL similar to treasury bonds), a 10% annual return is almost 3x of what you can get from bonds in the long term.In this article, I want to focus on a bearish argument surrounding Tim Cook. My thesis is to argue that he is only a fantastic professional manager but also an innovator too. The Apple Watch and especially the AirPods are good examples. The design of AirPods inherits the Apple spirit beautifully in my view. The easy-to-use features quickly made the public accept this new product with a premier price tag of around $200. And both the Apple Watch and AirPods have become a trend, an icon, and a culture just like the iPod and iPhone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Yeah man, just like i do not follow* your advice, I suggest others don't either [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","text":"Yeah man, just like i do not follow* your advice, I suggest others don't either [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]","html":"Yeah man, just like i do not follow* your advice, I suggest others don't either [Tongue][Tongue][Tongue]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980239801,"gmtCreate":1665733231503,"gmtModify":1676537657331,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Let end the week with bull","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Let end the week with bull","text":"$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$Let end the week with bull","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980239801","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"unfortunately red ... it tried to move above resistance but failed. Back to the same spot","text":"unfortunately red ... it tried to move above resistance but failed. Back to the same spot","html":"unfortunately red ... it tried to move above resistance but failed. Back to the same spot"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980397237,"gmtCreate":1665645351829,"gmtModify":1676537641917,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>About time to rebound a little&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>About time to rebound a little&nbsp;","text":"$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$About time to rebound a little","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980397237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"sadly i no buy last nite [Cry]","text":"sadly i no buy last nite [Cry]","html":"sadly i no buy last nite [Cry]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915760931,"gmtCreate":1665110152723,"gmtModify":1676537559243,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Last day of the week, u can do it","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Last day of the week, u can do it","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Last day of the week, u can do it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915760931","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"catch the economic data later at 830pm. remember bad news is good news [Grin] .. if good news , 🏃‍♂️ 🏃‍♂️ 🏃‍♂️","text":"catch the economic data later at 830pm. remember bad news is good news [Grin] .. if good news , 🏃‍♂️ 🏃‍♂️ 🏃‍♂️","html":"catch the economic data later at 830pm. remember bad news is good news [Grin] .. if good news , 🏃‍♂️ 🏃‍♂️ 🏃‍♂️"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915928388,"gmtCreate":1664938942344,"gmtModify":1676537532938,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Yes baba up moreup more&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Yes baba up moreup more&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Yes baba up moreup more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915928388","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"To the Moon [Grin] [Cool]","text":"To the Moon [Grin] [Cool]","html":"To the Moon [Grin] [Cool]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912028583,"gmtCreate":1664711741343,"gmtModify":1676537497248,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Come on baba, u can&nbsp;do it&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Come on baba, u can&nbsp;do it&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Come on baba, u can do it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912028583","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912021551,"gmtCreate":1664711609774,"gmtModify":1676537497223,"author":{"id":"3576472032670521","authorId":"3576472032670521","name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Price too attractive, already bought some. Hope to see it goes up these 2 weeks","listText":"Price too attractive, already bought some. Hope to see it goes up these 2 weeks","text":"Price too attractive, already bought some. Hope to see it goes up these 2 weeks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912021551","repostId":"1157459217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157459217","pubTimestamp":1664676789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157459217?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-02 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157459217","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Over the mid term,Alibaba’s share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s forecast for adj EPS in FY2024 has been cut by 4%, yet the share price has dropped by 34%.Moving forward, how can this be corrected?","content":"<div>\n<p>Over the mid term, Alibaba’s (BABA)share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-02 10:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Over the mid term, Alibaba’s (BABA)share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157459217","content_text":"Over the mid term, Alibaba’s (BABA)share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s forecast for adj EPS in FY2024 has been cut by 4%, yet the share price has dropped by 34%.Moving forward, how can this be corrected? J.P. Morgan’sAlex Yao has an idea. The analyst believes “sentiment-driven fund flow is the current key share price driver and revenue recovery is the key determinant of market sentiment.”That is a bit of problem, then. Because Yao expects weak China consumption in the September quarter (F2Q23) to impact the revenue outlook.Since late August, Covid has once again been a disruptive force in a host of cities across China, and as such, Yao expects “limited improvement” in Alibaba’s core-core CMR (customer-management revenue) compared to the June quarter.The analyst sees the September quarter’s CMR falling by 4% from the same period last year, hardly any better than the June quarter’s 5% drop. On account of “low visibility of consumer sentiment improvement” or any relaxion of the Covid policies, the decline will continue in the December quarter, albeit at a slower pace (Yao expects a 2% year-over-year decline vs. anticipation of a positive turn previously).In contrast, given Alibaba’s firm commitment to cost-cutting and efficiency-improving measures, Yao sees “potential upside to consensus bottom-line projections.”However, that might not have enough of a positive effect right now. “Alibaba’s weakening revenue outlook in the near term could continue to weigh on the share price despite an unchanged, or even potentially better, profit outlook,” the analyst said, before summing up, “Nonetheless, we believe Alibaba’s share price is attractive on a 12-month view on 1) profit growth recovery to 20%+ in FY2024, 2) current consensus FY2024 PE of only 9x.”To this end, Yao rates BABA shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy) along with a $135 price target. This figure leaves room for 12-month share appreciation of ~69%. Yao’s rating stays an Overweight (i.e., Buy).Overall, Wall Street takes a bullish stance on Alibaba shares. 17 Buys and 1 Sell issued over the previous three months, making the stock a Strong Buy. Meanwhile, the $149.06 average price target suggests ~86% upside from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}