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2024-02-12

Happy chinese new year

2024-02-08

Happy chinese new year! 🎉🧧

2023-04-10

Really?

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2023-03-02

Ok

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2023-03-01

Ok

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2023-03-01

Ok

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2023-03-01

Ok

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2023-02-28

Will he sell shares again?

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2023-02-07

Ok

Meta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs

2023-02-07

Ok

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2023-02-07

Ok

2 Stocks That Could Soar 38% to 42% In 2023, According to Wall Street

2023-01-11

Buy

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2022-12-27

Haha

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2022-12-23

Really?

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2022-12-19

Ok

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2022-12-19

Oh no

The Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally

2022-12-06

Goal

2022-12-05

Ok

Tesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources

2021-06-25

Power

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he sell shares again?&nbsp;","listText":"Will he sell shares again?&nbsp;","text":"Will he sell shares again?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957719327","repostId":"2314592524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955766396,"gmtCreate":1675773562116,"gmtModify":1675773566131,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955766396","repostId":"2309327810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2309327810","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1675769489,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2309327810?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2023-02-07 19:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309327810","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3.76B and $440MM for Family of Apps and Reality Labs respectively), and $32.17B in revenue beating street&#39;s revenue expectations.</p><p>META soared from $153 to $189 (+24%) with 150MM trading volume. This is in contrast to 232MM selloff post Q3-22 earnings resulting in -29% stock price drop due to EPS miss ($1.64 vs $1.89 expected).</p><p>During Q4-22 earnings call, the company did a great job &#39;selling&#39; their product strategies on WhatsApp, Reels, and AI, as well as plans on improving cost efficiencies with infrastructure and organizations. Except the mass layoff in Q4, I have seen limited evidence supporting the doubled stock price within three months. The market clearly just reacted to Meta&#39;s quarterly results. In my previous articles (Meta: Ads Business Growth At Risk; Meta Bets On WhatsApp To Replicate WeChat Success; Meta&#39;s Ads Risk With ARPU And CPM) I mainly discussed Meta&#39;s risk with advertising. Today I want to share a few more thoughts around their Q4-22 earning discussions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17753bb004be3b891707db6a9c822255\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Capital IQ</p><h2>Meta faces a dilemma between committing to Year of Efficiency and increasing investment in Reality Labs</h2><p>The company stated that 2023 would be the &#34;year of efficiency&#34; with mass layoff and restructuring as the starting point in Q4-22, and efficiency efforts will continue for Infrastructure, Org structure, and AI tooling. Specifically ROI of AI investments will be measured to inform their future spending. The company also made it clear that Reality Labs losses would continue to increase in 2023 from an already very pricey endeavor with $13.7B loss in 2022.</p><p>There are several problems between committing to efficiency and increasing investment in reality labs.</p><p>First, driving efficiency normally comes with costs of slowing down growth. If Meta indeed is going to fulfill their commitment in cost optimization, it means growth of some businesses will more or less be affected. Since Metaverse is still their long-term bet, in order to deliver on their vision, infrastructure would be critical to support the development. Although the company wanted to measure ROI of AI investments, guess how hard it would be to measure the return for this multi-year journey?</p><p>Second, comparing with Cloud leaders on the market, anecdotally Meta is pretty new in infrastructure capacity planning and CapEx optimization. I can think of various things that might limit Meta from moving fast. The foundational work of metering infrastructure usage by workload, the operational excellence in right-sizing data center footprints, and the trial and error required to understand tradeoffs between utilization and performance by workload. Just to name a few.</p><p>All in all, I am positive that a flatter organization would allow Meta to move faster, more thoughtful hiring plans will help keep HC costs under control. But infrastructure efficiency will be a tough dilemma Meta has to face, and eventually Meta will have to determine the ranked priority between Reality Labs investment and efficiency commitment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc7f66973ff47fd845c2ecc84228ee8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60f33ee92512776d6766fc3298ef47d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d9a60e815186cde0e971024685a538a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><h2>Reels likely won&#39;t take off until early 2024</h2><p>Reels, a short-form video product, is what Meta competes with TikTok. Unfortunately, the company seems lacking conviction in moving fast. As stated in Q4-22 earnings call, Reels monetization efficient is much less than feed, and revenue neutral will only be achieved by the end of this year or early 2024.</p><blockquote>&#34;We are not quantifying the gap in monetization efficiency between Reels and other services. We know it <i>took us several years to bring the gap close between Stories and Feed Ads.</i> And we expect that <i>this will take longer for Reels</i>&#34;.</blockquote><p>Note that by the end of 2023, TikTok is estimated to reach $18B in ad revenue. This is one of the tradeoffs when Meta leads the construction of future&#39;s metaverse.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9390db4a4c16ed767832337701ff391\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f3385e481cdaab68efd1f8793218a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p>Finally, although MAUs hit new highs, it worries me a little that Ads in North America has been trending flat. Growth in APAC and ROW means lower ARPU, lower CPM to offset higher volume of impressions. One of the potential reasons could be that advertisers started rationalizing their budget allocation and shifted towards Retail Media Networks and Short-form Video Ads. See my previous article, Walmart: Doubling Down In Retail Media Network.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I overall remain neutral for META stock. On the positive side, Meta repurchased $28B worth shares in 2022, and announced $40B share buyback in 2023. Meta also started talking about Ads monetization for WhatsApp. Getting fit is also a critical path for tech giants to regain growth momentum. On the flip side, I am skeptical how much efficiency improvement will materialize, and also feel slightly disappointed about the ramping plan for Reels in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-07 19:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575754-meta-platforms-4q-2022-earnings-dilemma-between-year-of-efficiency-reality-labs><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3.76B and $440MM for Family of Apps and Reality Labs respectively), and $32.17B in revenue beating ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575754-meta-platforms-4q-2022-earnings-dilemma-between-year-of-efficiency-reality-labs\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575754-meta-platforms-4q-2022-earnings-dilemma-between-year-of-efficiency-reality-labs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309327810","content_text":"Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3.76B and $440MM for Family of Apps and Reality Labs respectively), and $32.17B in revenue beating street's revenue expectations.META soared from $153 to $189 (+24%) with 150MM trading volume. This is in contrast to 232MM selloff post Q3-22 earnings resulting in -29% stock price drop due to EPS miss ($1.64 vs $1.89 expected).During Q4-22 earnings call, the company did a great job 'selling' their product strategies on WhatsApp, Reels, and AI, as well as plans on improving cost efficiencies with infrastructure and organizations. Except the mass layoff in Q4, I have seen limited evidence supporting the doubled stock price within three months. The market clearly just reacted to Meta's quarterly results. In my previous articles (Meta: Ads Business Growth At Risk; Meta Bets On WhatsApp To Replicate WeChat Success; Meta's Ads Risk With ARPU And CPM) I mainly discussed Meta's risk with advertising. Today I want to share a few more thoughts around their Q4-22 earning discussions.Capital IQMeta faces a dilemma between committing to Year of Efficiency and increasing investment in Reality LabsThe company stated that 2023 would be the \"year of efficiency\" with mass layoff and restructuring as the starting point in Q4-22, and efficiency efforts will continue for Infrastructure, Org structure, and AI tooling. Specifically ROI of AI investments will be measured to inform their future spending. The company also made it clear that Reality Labs losses would continue to increase in 2023 from an already very pricey endeavor with $13.7B loss in 2022.There are several problems between committing to efficiency and increasing investment in reality labs.First, driving efficiency normally comes with costs of slowing down growth. If Meta indeed is going to fulfill their commitment in cost optimization, it means growth of some businesses will more or less be affected. Since Metaverse is still their long-term bet, in order to deliver on their vision, infrastructure would be critical to support the development. Although the company wanted to measure ROI of AI investments, guess how hard it would be to measure the return for this multi-year journey?Second, comparing with Cloud leaders on the market, anecdotally Meta is pretty new in infrastructure capacity planning and CapEx optimization. I can think of various things that might limit Meta from moving fast. The foundational work of metering infrastructure usage by workload, the operational excellence in right-sizing data center footprints, and the trial and error required to understand tradeoffs between utilization and performance by workload. Just to name a few.All in all, I am positive that a flatter organization would allow Meta to move faster, more thoughtful hiring plans will help keep HC costs under control. But infrastructure efficiency will be a tough dilemma Meta has to face, and eventually Meta will have to determine the ranked priority between Reality Labs investment and efficiency commitment.CompanyCompanyCompanyReels likely won't take off until early 2024Reels, a short-form video product, is what Meta competes with TikTok. Unfortunately, the company seems lacking conviction in moving fast. As stated in Q4-22 earnings call, Reels monetization efficient is much less than feed, and revenue neutral will only be achieved by the end of this year or early 2024.\"We are not quantifying the gap in monetization efficiency between Reels and other services. We know it took us several years to bring the gap close between Stories and Feed Ads. And we expect that this will take longer for Reels\".Note that by the end of 2023, TikTok is estimated to reach $18B in ad revenue. This is one of the tradeoffs when Meta leads the construction of future's metaverse.CompanyCompanyFinally, although MAUs hit new highs, it worries me a little that Ads in North America has been trending flat. Growth in APAC and ROW means lower ARPU, lower CPM to offset higher volume of impressions. One of the potential reasons could be that advertisers started rationalizing their budget allocation and shifted towards Retail Media Networks and Short-form Video Ads. See my previous article, Walmart: Doubling Down In Retail Media Network.ConclusionI overall remain neutral for META stock. On the positive side, Meta repurchased $28B worth shares in 2022, and announced $40B share buyback in 2023. Meta also started talking about Ads monetization for WhatsApp. Getting fit is also a critical path for tech giants to regain growth momentum. On the flip side, I am skeptical how much efficiency improvement will materialize, and also feel slightly disappointed about the ramping plan for Reels in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955766091,"gmtCreate":1675773516514,"gmtModify":1675773520224,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955766091","repostId":"1189895713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955768768,"gmtCreate":1675773498254,"gmtModify":1675773502562,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955768768","repostId":"2308975892","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2308975892","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1675783830,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2308975892?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2023-02-07 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Stocks That Could Soar 38% to 42% In 2023, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308975892","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These growth stocks boast strong businesses that could prime shares for a robust recovery.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Whether you&#39;re a brand new investor or have seen your fair share of market ups and downs, there&#39;s no denying that stock market events of the past months have tested even the most seasoned traders. While it&#39;s important to regularly evaluate your portfolio&#39;s balance to ensure your investment theses remain intact and the composition of your holdings aligns with your current risk tolerance, a down market doesn&#39;t mean you need to avoid investing or rush to sell off your stocks.</p><p>Assuming the thesis for companies you own or follow is still there, discounted share prices can present an incredible opportunity to buy more companies you love at record-cheap prices. On that note, let&#39;s take a look at two stocks that some analysts on Wall Street have high hopes for in the next year, but which have durable underlying businesses that can drive portfolio growth for years to come.</p><h2>1. Etsy</h2><p>Several analysts estimate that <b>Etsy</b> could realize a 12-month upside of about 38%. The stock is trading up by nearly 20% from the start of the year.</p><p>Etsy is dominant in a remarkably targeted but underpenetrated segment of the overall e-commerce market. With its focus on vintage, unique, and handmade items, management says that Etsy.com alone could face a total addressable online market of nearly $470 billion. And it&#39;s only penetrated about 3% of that total market.</p><p>Of course, Etsy has also acquired other businesses in recent years that can fuel growth beyond the Etsy.com platform in the future, including music gear marketplace Reverb, apparel resale marketplace Depop, and Elo7, known widely as &#34;The Etsy of Brazil.&#34; Bear in mind, Latin America is one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in the world, and Brazil is the largest market within this region, controlling about 25% of all sales generated in the area.</p><p>While the market hasn&#39;t been as kind to shares of Etsy over the last year, its underlying business is continuing to expand and mark impressive growth improvements from pre-pandemic levels. Case in point: Etsy&#39;s gross merchandise sales of $3 billion in the third quarter of 2022 represented a whopping 150% increase on a three-year basis. Meanwhile, Etsy&#39;s cohorts of active buyers, habitual buyers (buyers who spent more than $200 in the past 12 months and clocked six or more purchase days on Etsy), and repeat buyers were up 100%, 223%, and 125%, respectively, in Q3 2022 compared to the same quarter in 2019.</p><p>Etsy&#39;s competitive advantage in a fast-growing slice of the multi-trillion-dollar e-commerce market, not to mention the extremely low overhead costs it bears because it doesn&#39;t store or ship inventory, all bode well for its ability to ride out any near-term changes in consumer spending. Over the long term, people will continue to shop online, and the desire for unique and vintage items isn&#39;t going away either.</p><p>With a stash of $1.1 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet at the end of Q3, Etsy is well-positioned for imminent choppy waters, but its overall growth opportunity poses a particularly compelling buy in the current market.</p><h2>2. Fiverr</h2><p>Some Wall Street analysts currently estimate <b>Fiverr International</b>&#39;s 12-month upside at 43% on the high end. Shares of Fiverr have jumped by about 22% from the beginning of January. Fiverr&#39;s volatile share movements over the last year haven&#39;t really been tied to concerning business developments, but rather to fluctuating sentiment about growth stocks in general.</p><p>Fiverr boasts sellers on its platform ranging from lawyers to copywriters to voice actors, while buyers of the millions of services accessible on the platform range from small businesses to Fortune 500 enterprises. While Fiverr still isn&#39;t profitable -- and that&#39;s another point that may be keeping some investors at bay -- management is actively investing in the growth of its business to set it up for a durable position as one of the world&#39;s leading freelance platforms. And it appears to be working.</p><p>In the 12 months leading up to the end of Q3 2022, the spend per buyer jumped 12% compared to the same time frame in the prior year. Revenue was up 11% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 to $83 million, while adjusted EBITDA totaled just shy of $7 million for the three-month period with a GAAP gross margin of 81%.</p><p>Fiverr continues to upgrade its platform options for both buyers and sellers. Companies can use Fiverr&#39;s Talent Cloud to onboard and manage entire teams of freelancers both online and offline, an offering boosted by the company&#39;s acquisition of Stoke Talent in 2021. In addition, freelancers can pay for Promoted Gigs, which are advertisements to increase the visibility of their listed services to prospective buyers.</p><p>As of Q3, Fiverr now offers two tiers of its paid Seller Plus program, which offers freelancers everything from advanced analytics to buyer activity insights to build out their business. Fiverr also continues to invest in subscription programs, one of which allows freelancers to sell ongoing gigs to clients for up to six months at a time. Fiverr&#39;s dedication to continually upgrading its experience for freelancers and buyers of gig services are moves that could pay off big time for the business and its shareholders in the next decade and beyond.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Stocks That Could Soar 38% to 42% In 2023, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Stocks That Could Soar 38% to 42% In 2023, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-07 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/03/2-stocks-that-could-soar-38-to-42-in-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Whether you're a brand new investor or have seen your fair share of market ups and downs, there's no denying that stock market events of the past months have tested even the most seasoned traders. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/03/2-stocks-that-could-soar-38-to-42-in-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","FVRR":"Fiverr International Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/03/2-stocks-that-could-soar-38-to-42-in-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2308975892","content_text":"Whether you're a brand new investor or have seen your fair share of market ups and downs, there's no denying that stock market events of the past months have tested even the most seasoned traders. While it's important to regularly evaluate your portfolio's balance to ensure your investment theses remain intact and the composition of your holdings aligns with your current risk tolerance, a down market doesn't mean you need to avoid investing or rush to sell off your stocks.Assuming the thesis for companies you own or follow is still there, discounted share prices can present an incredible opportunity to buy more companies you love at record-cheap prices. On that note, let's take a look at two stocks that some analysts on Wall Street have high hopes for in the next year, but which have durable underlying businesses that can drive portfolio growth for years to come.1. EtsySeveral analysts estimate that Etsy could realize a 12-month upside of about 38%. The stock is trading up by nearly 20% from the start of the year.Etsy is dominant in a remarkably targeted but underpenetrated segment of the overall e-commerce market. With its focus on vintage, unique, and handmade items, management says that Etsy.com alone could face a total addressable online market of nearly $470 billion. And it's only penetrated about 3% of that total market.Of course, Etsy has also acquired other businesses in recent years that can fuel growth beyond the Etsy.com platform in the future, including music gear marketplace Reverb, apparel resale marketplace Depop, and Elo7, known widely as \"The Etsy of Brazil.\" Bear in mind, Latin America is one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in the world, and Brazil is the largest market within this region, controlling about 25% of all sales generated in the area.While the market hasn't been as kind to shares of Etsy over the last year, its underlying business is continuing to expand and mark impressive growth improvements from pre-pandemic levels. Case in point: Etsy's gross merchandise sales of $3 billion in the third quarter of 2022 represented a whopping 150% increase on a three-year basis. Meanwhile, Etsy's cohorts of active buyers, habitual buyers (buyers who spent more than $200 in the past 12 months and clocked six or more purchase days on Etsy), and repeat buyers were up 100%, 223%, and 125%, respectively, in Q3 2022 compared to the same quarter in 2019.Etsy's competitive advantage in a fast-growing slice of the multi-trillion-dollar e-commerce market, not to mention the extremely low overhead costs it bears because it doesn't store or ship inventory, all bode well for its ability to ride out any near-term changes in consumer spending. Over the long term, people will continue to shop online, and the desire for unique and vintage items isn't going away either.With a stash of $1.1 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet at the end of Q3, Etsy is well-positioned for imminent choppy waters, but its overall growth opportunity poses a particularly compelling buy in the current market.2. FiverrSome Wall Street analysts currently estimate Fiverr International's 12-month upside at 43% on the high end. Shares of Fiverr have jumped by about 22% from the beginning of January. Fiverr's volatile share movements over the last year haven't really been tied to concerning business developments, but rather to fluctuating sentiment about growth stocks in general.Fiverr boasts sellers on its platform ranging from lawyers to copywriters to voice actors, while buyers of the millions of services accessible on the platform range from small businesses to Fortune 500 enterprises. While Fiverr still isn't profitable -- and that's another point that may be keeping some investors at bay -- management is actively investing in the growth of its business to set it up for a durable position as one of the world's leading freelance platforms. And it appears to be working.In the 12 months leading up to the end of Q3 2022, the spend per buyer jumped 12% compared to the same time frame in the prior year. Revenue was up 11% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 to $83 million, while adjusted EBITDA totaled just shy of $7 million for the three-month period with a GAAP gross margin of 81%.Fiverr continues to upgrade its platform options for both buyers and sellers. Companies can use Fiverr's Talent Cloud to onboard and manage entire teams of freelancers both online and offline, an offering boosted by the company's acquisition of Stoke Talent in 2021. In addition, freelancers can pay for Promoted Gigs, which are advertisements to increase the visibility of their listed services to prospective buyers.As of Q3, Fiverr now offers two tiers of its paid Seller Plus program, which offers freelancers everything from advanced analytics to buyer activity insights to build out their business. Fiverr also continues to invest in subscription programs, one of which allows freelancers to sell ongoing gigs to clients for up to six months at a time. Fiverr's dedication to continually upgrading its experience for freelancers and buyers of gig services are moves that could pay off big time for the business and its shareholders in the next decade and beyond.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951377096,"gmtCreate":1673409517016,"gmtModify":1676538832304,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951377096","repostId":"2302632190","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924088498,"gmtCreate":1672136693414,"gmtModify":1676538640032,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924088498","repostId":"2294655826","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922675001,"gmtCreate":1671764517904,"gmtModify":1676538589703,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922675001","repostId":"2293558389","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926948069,"gmtCreate":1671456064652,"gmtModify":1676538539103,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926948069","repostId":"1124238643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926923521,"gmtCreate":1671451381763,"gmtModify":1676538538303,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926923521","repostId":"2292886262","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2292886262","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671463802,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2292886262?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-12-19 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2292886262","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/i","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Bloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/institutional investors likely went into FOMO mode after the market bottomed in October.</li><li>So the hammering last week could have stunned these investors? Isn&#39;t November&#39;s CPI print constructive?</li><li>Yet the Fed was never in doubt as it emphasized that it would not adjust its 2% inflation target.</li><li>Hence, the post-CPI rally has proved to be the bull trap the market needed to start the pullback in earnest.</li><li>Where we land next could determine whether the market anticipates a severe recession. Just don&#39;t expect Santa to be on time this year.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13e0a8d019aac2afb7cc74821154791\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Win McNamee</span></p><h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s Finest Hawkish Moment</h2><p>The FOMC delivered and did not disappoint. We had already prepared ourselves for a hawkish Fed through the end of 2023, with the Fed&#39;s revised median terminal rate of 5.1% slightly ahead of the economists&#39; consensus.</p><p>Hence, the critical question is whether the Fed is committed to maintaining its inflation target of 2%, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell brushed off any suggestion of a change.</p><p>Some commentators suggested that the Fed&#39;s credibility could be tested, as they view the target as &#34;no longer credible.&#34; For example, Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman articulated that the Fed should adjust its target, seeing 3% as a viable target, as &#34;businesses need price stability, but can thrive in a world with 3% stable inflation.&#34;</p><p>Notwithstanding, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers applauded the Fed&#39;s decision to keep to its 2% inflation target. Summers articulated that &#34;[he&#39;s] gratified to see the ways in which the Fed has caught up.&#34;</p><p>The Fed&#39;s revised summary of economic projections (SEP) suggests its PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 2.1% by 2025 from its previous 2% projections in September. However, market forecasters are debating whether the Fed has incorporated the latest CPI report into its SEP, given the short notice from November&#39;s CPI release (December 13) to Powell&#39;s presser (December 14).</p><p>UBS Securities economist Alan Detmeister articulated that the Fed&#39;s SEP indicates that &#34;[it has] extremely strong December numbers for inflation written in.&#34; However, the timing of November&#39;s CPI print might not have been reflected accordingly, even though Powell maintained in the pressor that such data points had been considered. Detmeister highlighted:</p><blockquote>Very few of them would have probably gone ahead and updated their submissions and really worked out what it would&#39;ve taken in December to hit that target. - <i>Bloomberg</i></blockquote><h2>Is The Fed Willing To Drive A Deep Recession?</h2><p>Hence, investors looking through the recent media releases and commentary from economists and market strategists are likely more confused as they parse whether the Fed could be &#34;bluffing.&#34;</p><p>RBC chief US economist Tom Porcelli even argued: &#34;This aggressive hiking cycle is going to cause some damage. The Fed will cut rates twice in 2023.&#34;</p><p>Sure, bulls think that the Fed could be forced to cut rates, as even its revised SEP suggests a recession is looking increasingly likely. However, Powell declined to predict whether one could occur, emphasizing he doesn&#39;t have a crystal ball. Still, BofA strategists stressed that they see the potential for a &#34;Fed policy mistake driving hard landing.&#34;</p><p>However, Edward Yardeni maintained his call in his December 15 briefing that the Fed&#39;s &#34;soft-landing forecast makes sense to us.&#34;</p><p>Therefore, we believe investors have likely gleaned a series of confusing commentary rather than clarity as strategists and economists assess whether the Fed could force a recession to keep its commitment to pressing down inflation.</p><p>Furthermore, S&amp;P Global highlighted in a recent commentary that it sees inflationary pressures abating across the US economy, including services. It articulated:</p><blockquote>We got the steepest downturn we&#39;ve seen since the global financial crisis, if the initial lockdown period is excluded. The good news is that this downturn in the economy is alleviating inflationary pressures. - <i>WSJ</i></blockquote><p>Hence, could the Fed&#39;s head be turned, even as it expects to continue hiking rates through the end of 2023? Would the Fed be responsive enough to a potential policy error that could drive the economy to a deeper downturn than the FOMC had planned for?</p><p>Even Summers has not ruled out that the labor market could be hit with a &#34;particularly sharp weakening,&#34; helping to alleviate one of the most consistent drivers of inflation markedly.</p><h2>The Market Was Already Primed For A Pullback, Regardless</h2><p>However, despite the sharp recovery in October and the positive CPI print on Wednesday, we believe that market operators were never in doubt. The market was well-primed for a pullback. We also articulated in a recent commentary after the release of November&#39;s CPI metrics to our members:</p><blockquote><i>The market is still primed for a pullback.</i> I [have already] revised the <i>short-term market bias on November 22 to Bearish.</i> We got the [initial] pullback, but it wasn&#39;t enough on the medium-term chart. So, [on December 12], I revised [the short-term bias] to Neutral to reflect the recent pullback [as] short-term indicators [are] no longer overbought. But, with yesterday&#39;s [December 13, post-CPI release] possible bull trap price action, I&#39;ve revised it down one notch to Bearish-Neutral for our short-term bias. I will discuss this in more detail after we get more clarity on today&#39;s FOMC presser. - <i>Ultimate Growth Investing December 14 - Pre-market briefing</i></blockquote><p>That&#39;s right. The market has drawn in investors astutely into FOMO mode as they feared they missed its October lows. We highlighted to our members on October 21 that &#34;we have the bullish reversal condition that we need. So, we are good to go.&#34; During those days, we vividly recall that the media and strategists were highly pessimistic.</p><p>We even highlighted in October to members that &#34;money managers are sitting on the highest levels of dry powder waiting to be deployed in twenty years.&#34; Therefore, we aren&#39;t surprised that Bloomberg reported:</p><blockquote>After a month of drawing down positions, investors poured $25 billion in stocks in the week through Wednesday only to see the S&amp;P 500 plummet as the Federal Reserve and other central banks stuck with hawkish stances that threaten to spur a recession. - Bloomberg</blockquote><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>Recall we mentioned that we revised our short-term market bias to Bearish on November 22, nearly four weeks ago. The market had prepared for this moment for a while, drawing in unsuspecting retail/institutional investors into FOMO, anticipating the Santa Claus rally to unfold.</p><p>Our suggestion is this: Be wary. The pullback is likely far from over, and where it takes us next could portend whether October lows could be sustained. And don&#39;t FOMO again.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-19 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565109-fed-crushed-investors-hopes-santa-claus-rally><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/institutional investors likely went into FOMO mode after the market bottomed in October.So the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565109-fed-crushed-investors-hopes-santa-claus-rally\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565109-fed-crushed-investors-hopes-santa-claus-rally","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2292886262","content_text":"SummaryBloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/institutional investors likely went into FOMO mode after the market bottomed in October.So the hammering last week could have stunned these investors? Isn't November's CPI print constructive?Yet the Fed was never in doubt as it emphasized that it would not adjust its 2% inflation target.Hence, the post-CPI rally has proved to be the bull trap the market needed to start the pullback in earnest.Where we land next could determine whether the market anticipates a severe recession. Just don't expect Santa to be on time this year.Win McNameeFed Chair Jerome Powell's Finest Hawkish MomentThe FOMC delivered and did not disappoint. We had already prepared ourselves for a hawkish Fed through the end of 2023, with the Fed's revised median terminal rate of 5.1% slightly ahead of the economists' consensus.Hence, the critical question is whether the Fed is committed to maintaining its inflation target of 2%, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell brushed off any suggestion of a change.Some commentators suggested that the Fed's credibility could be tested, as they view the target as \"no longer credible.\" For example, Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman articulated that the Fed should adjust its target, seeing 3% as a viable target, as \"businesses need price stability, but can thrive in a world with 3% stable inflation.\"Notwithstanding, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers applauded the Fed's decision to keep to its 2% inflation target. Summers articulated that \"[he's] gratified to see the ways in which the Fed has caught up.\"The Fed's revised summary of economic projections (SEP) suggests its PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 2.1% by 2025 from its previous 2% projections in September. However, market forecasters are debating whether the Fed has incorporated the latest CPI report into its SEP, given the short notice from November's CPI release (December 13) to Powell's presser (December 14).UBS Securities economist Alan Detmeister articulated that the Fed's SEP indicates that \"[it has] extremely strong December numbers for inflation written in.\" However, the timing of November's CPI print might not have been reflected accordingly, even though Powell maintained in the pressor that such data points had been considered. Detmeister highlighted:Very few of them would have probably gone ahead and updated their submissions and really worked out what it would've taken in December to hit that target. - BloombergIs The Fed Willing To Drive A Deep Recession?Hence, investors looking through the recent media releases and commentary from economists and market strategists are likely more confused as they parse whether the Fed could be \"bluffing.\"RBC chief US economist Tom Porcelli even argued: \"This aggressive hiking cycle is going to cause some damage. The Fed will cut rates twice in 2023.\"Sure, bulls think that the Fed could be forced to cut rates, as even its revised SEP suggests a recession is looking increasingly likely. However, Powell declined to predict whether one could occur, emphasizing he doesn't have a crystal ball. Still, BofA strategists stressed that they see the potential for a \"Fed policy mistake driving hard landing.\"However, Edward Yardeni maintained his call in his December 15 briefing that the Fed's \"soft-landing forecast makes sense to us.\"Therefore, we believe investors have likely gleaned a series of confusing commentary rather than clarity as strategists and economists assess whether the Fed could force a recession to keep its commitment to pressing down inflation.Furthermore, S&P Global highlighted in a recent commentary that it sees inflationary pressures abating across the US economy, including services. It articulated:We got the steepest downturn we've seen since the global financial crisis, if the initial lockdown period is excluded. The good news is that this downturn in the economy is alleviating inflationary pressures. - WSJHence, could the Fed's head be turned, even as it expects to continue hiking rates through the end of 2023? Would the Fed be responsive enough to a potential policy error that could drive the economy to a deeper downturn than the FOMC had planned for?Even Summers has not ruled out that the labor market could be hit with a \"particularly sharp weakening,\" helping to alleviate one of the most consistent drivers of inflation markedly.The Market Was Already Primed For A Pullback, RegardlessHowever, despite the sharp recovery in October and the positive CPI print on Wednesday, we believe that market operators were never in doubt. The market was well-primed for a pullback. We also articulated in a recent commentary after the release of November's CPI metrics to our members:The market is still primed for a pullback. I [have already] revised the short-term market bias on November 22 to Bearish. We got the [initial] pullback, but it wasn't enough on the medium-term chart. So, [on December 12], I revised [the short-term bias] to Neutral to reflect the recent pullback [as] short-term indicators [are] no longer overbought. But, with yesterday's [December 13, post-CPI release] possible bull trap price action, I've revised it down one notch to Bearish-Neutral for our short-term bias. I will discuss this in more detail after we get more clarity on today's FOMC presser. - Ultimate Growth Investing December 14 - Pre-market briefingThat's right. The market has drawn in investors astutely into FOMO mode as they feared they missed its October lows. We highlighted to our members on October 21 that \"we have the bullish reversal condition that we need. So, we are good to go.\" During those days, we vividly recall that the media and strategists were highly pessimistic.We even highlighted in October to members that \"money managers are sitting on the highest levels of dry powder waiting to be deployed in twenty years.\" Therefore, we aren't surprised that Bloomberg reported:After a month of drawing down positions, investors poured $25 billion in stocks in the week through Wednesday only to see the S&P 500 plummet as the Federal Reserve and other central banks stuck with hawkish stances that threaten to spur a recession. - BloombergTakeawayRecall we mentioned that we revised our short-term market bias to Bearish on November 22, nearly four weeks ago. The market had prepared for this moment for a while, drawing in unsuspecting retail/institutional investors into FOMO, anticipating the Santa Claus rally to unfold.Our suggestion is this: Be wary. The pullback is likely far from over, and where it takes us next could portend whether October lows could be sustained. And don't FOMO again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967122476,"gmtCreate":1670286421496,"gmtModify":1676538336385,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goal","listText":"Goal","text":"Goal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967122476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967947336,"gmtCreate":1670255085325,"gmtModify":1676538330644,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967947336","repostId":"2289625158","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2289625158","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670227883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2289625158?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-12-05 16:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289625158","media":"Reuters","summary":"Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to November, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.</p><p>Reuters was not able to immediately ascertain the reason for the December reduction in the electric vehicle (EV) giant&#39;s latest production plan.</p><p>Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the planned cut, first reported by Bloomberg.</p><p>China has partially eased tough COVID-19 curbs on people and businesses aimed at stamping out all outbreaks of the virus, but many restrictions are still in place. These have dampened demand and triggered local production slowdowns across the auto industry because of difficulties in securing component supplies.</p><p>Tesla added to its electric vehicle inventory in Shanghai at its fastest pace ever in October, according to China Merchants Bank International (CBMI) data. Chief Executive Elon Musk has said China, the company&#39;s second-largest market, was in a &#34;recession of sorts&#34;.</p><p>Even so, Tesla&#39;s retail sales in China nearly doubled in the first four weeks of November from a year earlier, after the automaker cut prices and offered incentives on its Model 3 and Model Y models, the data from CMBI showed.</p><p>Globally, Tesla had planned to push production of the Model Y and Model 3 EVs sharply higher in the fourth quarter as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, Reuters reported in September.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 16:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-tesla-cuts-dec-model-073737893.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to November, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.Reuters was not able to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-tesla-cuts-dec-model-073737893.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-tesla-cuts-dec-model-073737893.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289625158","content_text":"Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to November, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.Reuters was not able to immediately ascertain the reason for the December reduction in the electric vehicle (EV) giant's latest production plan.Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the planned cut, first reported by Bloomberg.China has partially eased tough COVID-19 curbs on people and businesses aimed at stamping out all outbreaks of the virus, but many restrictions are still in place. These have dampened demand and triggered local production slowdowns across the auto industry because of difficulties in securing component supplies.Tesla added to its electric vehicle inventory in Shanghai at its fastest pace ever in October, according to China Merchants Bank International (CBMI) data. Chief Executive Elon Musk has said China, the company's second-largest market, was in a \"recession of sorts\".Even so, Tesla's retail sales in China nearly doubled in the first four weeks of November from a year earlier, after the automaker cut prices and offered incentives on its Model 3 and Model Y models, the data from CMBI showed.Globally, Tesla had planned to push production of the Model Y and Model 3 EVs sharply higher in the fourth quarter as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, Reuters reported in September.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122348821,"gmtCreate":1624599972763,"gmtModify":1703841442295,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576649215225776","idStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power","listText":"Power","text":"Power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/122348821","repostId":"1147153207","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9955768768,"gmtCreate":1675773498254,"gmtModify":1675773502562,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955768768","repostId":"2308975892","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940310629,"gmtCreate":1677685920362,"gmtModify":1677685923745,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940310629","repostId":"2316069863","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926948069,"gmtCreate":1671456064652,"gmtModify":1676538539103,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926948069","repostId":"1124238643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926923521,"gmtCreate":1671451381763,"gmtModify":1676538538303,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926923521","repostId":"2292886262","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2292886262","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671463802,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2292886262?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-12-19 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2292886262","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/i","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Bloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/institutional investors likely went into FOMO mode after the market bottomed in October.</li><li>So the hammering last week could have stunned these investors? Isn&#39;t November&#39;s CPI print constructive?</li><li>Yet the Fed was never in doubt as it emphasized that it would not adjust its 2% inflation target.</li><li>Hence, the post-CPI rally has proved to be the bull trap the market needed to start the pullback in earnest.</li><li>Where we land next could determine whether the market anticipates a severe recession. Just don&#39;t expect Santa to be on time this year.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13e0a8d019aac2afb7cc74821154791\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Win McNamee</span></p><h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s Finest Hawkish Moment</h2><p>The FOMC delivered and did not disappoint. We had already prepared ourselves for a hawkish Fed through the end of 2023, with the Fed&#39;s revised median terminal rate of 5.1% slightly ahead of the economists&#39; consensus.</p><p>Hence, the critical question is whether the Fed is committed to maintaining its inflation target of 2%, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell brushed off any suggestion of a change.</p><p>Some commentators suggested that the Fed&#39;s credibility could be tested, as they view the target as &#34;no longer credible.&#34; For example, Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman articulated that the Fed should adjust its target, seeing 3% as a viable target, as &#34;businesses need price stability, but can thrive in a world with 3% stable inflation.&#34;</p><p>Notwithstanding, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers applauded the Fed&#39;s decision to keep to its 2% inflation target. Summers articulated that &#34;[he&#39;s] gratified to see the ways in which the Fed has caught up.&#34;</p><p>The Fed&#39;s revised summary of economic projections (SEP) suggests its PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 2.1% by 2025 from its previous 2% projections in September. However, market forecasters are debating whether the Fed has incorporated the latest CPI report into its SEP, given the short notice from November&#39;s CPI release (December 13) to Powell&#39;s presser (December 14).</p><p>UBS Securities economist Alan Detmeister articulated that the Fed&#39;s SEP indicates that &#34;[it has] extremely strong December numbers for inflation written in.&#34; However, the timing of November&#39;s CPI print might not have been reflected accordingly, even though Powell maintained in the pressor that such data points had been considered. Detmeister highlighted:</p><blockquote>Very few of them would have probably gone ahead and updated their submissions and really worked out what it would&#39;ve taken in December to hit that target. - <i>Bloomberg</i></blockquote><h2>Is The Fed Willing To Drive A Deep Recession?</h2><p>Hence, investors looking through the recent media releases and commentary from economists and market strategists are likely more confused as they parse whether the Fed could be &#34;bluffing.&#34;</p><p>RBC chief US economist Tom Porcelli even argued: &#34;This aggressive hiking cycle is going to cause some damage. The Fed will cut rates twice in 2023.&#34;</p><p>Sure, bulls think that the Fed could be forced to cut rates, as even its revised SEP suggests a recession is looking increasingly likely. However, Powell declined to predict whether one could occur, emphasizing he doesn&#39;t have a crystal ball. Still, BofA strategists stressed that they see the potential for a &#34;Fed policy mistake driving hard landing.&#34;</p><p>However, Edward Yardeni maintained his call in his December 15 briefing that the Fed&#39;s &#34;soft-landing forecast makes sense to us.&#34;</p><p>Therefore, we believe investors have likely gleaned a series of confusing commentary rather than clarity as strategists and economists assess whether the Fed could force a recession to keep its commitment to pressing down inflation.</p><p>Furthermore, S&amp;P Global highlighted in a recent commentary that it sees inflationary pressures abating across the US economy, including services. It articulated:</p><blockquote>We got the steepest downturn we&#39;ve seen since the global financial crisis, if the initial lockdown period is excluded. The good news is that this downturn in the economy is alleviating inflationary pressures. - <i>WSJ</i></blockquote><p>Hence, could the Fed&#39;s head be turned, even as it expects to continue hiking rates through the end of 2023? Would the Fed be responsive enough to a potential policy error that could drive the economy to a deeper downturn than the FOMC had planned for?</p><p>Even Summers has not ruled out that the labor market could be hit with a &#34;particularly sharp weakening,&#34; helping to alleviate one of the most consistent drivers of inflation markedly.</p><h2>The Market Was Already Primed For A Pullback, Regardless</h2><p>However, despite the sharp recovery in October and the positive CPI print on Wednesday, we believe that market operators were never in doubt. The market was well-primed for a pullback. We also articulated in a recent commentary after the release of November&#39;s CPI metrics to our members:</p><blockquote><i>The market is still primed for a pullback.</i> I [have already] revised the <i>short-term market bias on November 22 to Bearish.</i> We got the [initial] pullback, but it wasn&#39;t enough on the medium-term chart. So, [on December 12], I revised [the short-term bias] to Neutral to reflect the recent pullback [as] short-term indicators [are] no longer overbought. But, with yesterday&#39;s [December 13, post-CPI release] possible bull trap price action, I&#39;ve revised it down one notch to Bearish-Neutral for our short-term bias. I will discuss this in more detail after we get more clarity on today&#39;s FOMC presser. - <i>Ultimate Growth Investing December 14 - Pre-market briefing</i></blockquote><p>That&#39;s right. The market has drawn in investors astutely into FOMO mode as they feared they missed its October lows. We highlighted to our members on October 21 that &#34;we have the bullish reversal condition that we need. So, we are good to go.&#34; During those days, we vividly recall that the media and strategists were highly pessimistic.</p><p>We even highlighted in October to members that &#34;money managers are sitting on the highest levels of dry powder waiting to be deployed in twenty years.&#34; Therefore, we aren&#39;t surprised that Bloomberg reported:</p><blockquote>After a month of drawing down positions, investors poured $25 billion in stocks in the week through Wednesday only to see the S&amp;P 500 plummet as the Federal Reserve and other central banks stuck with hawkish stances that threaten to spur a recession. - Bloomberg</blockquote><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>Recall we mentioned that we revised our short-term market bias to Bearish on November 22, nearly four weeks ago. The market had prepared for this moment for a while, drawing in unsuspecting retail/institutional investors into FOMO, anticipating the Santa Claus rally to unfold.</p><p>Our suggestion is this: Be wary. The pullback is likely far from over, and where it takes us next could portend whether October lows could be sustained. And don&#39;t FOMO again.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Crushed Investors' Hopes Of A Santa Claus Rally\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-19 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565109-fed-crushed-investors-hopes-santa-claus-rally><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/institutional investors likely went into FOMO mode after the market bottomed in October.So the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565109-fed-crushed-investors-hopes-santa-claus-rally\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565109-fed-crushed-investors-hopes-santa-claus-rally","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2292886262","content_text":"SummaryBloomberg reported investors poured nearly $25B into equities over the past week, as retail/institutional investors likely went into FOMO mode after the market bottomed in October.So the hammering last week could have stunned these investors? Isn't November's CPI print constructive?Yet the Fed was never in doubt as it emphasized that it would not adjust its 2% inflation target.Hence, the post-CPI rally has proved to be the bull trap the market needed to start the pullback in earnest.Where we land next could determine whether the market anticipates a severe recession. Just don't expect Santa to be on time this year.Win McNameeFed Chair Jerome Powell's Finest Hawkish MomentThe FOMC delivered and did not disappoint. We had already prepared ourselves for a hawkish Fed through the end of 2023, with the Fed's revised median terminal rate of 5.1% slightly ahead of the economists' consensus.Hence, the critical question is whether the Fed is committed to maintaining its inflation target of 2%, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell brushed off any suggestion of a change.Some commentators suggested that the Fed's credibility could be tested, as they view the target as \"no longer credible.\" For example, Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman articulated that the Fed should adjust its target, seeing 3% as a viable target, as \"businesses need price stability, but can thrive in a world with 3% stable inflation.\"Notwithstanding, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers applauded the Fed's decision to keep to its 2% inflation target. Summers articulated that \"[he's] gratified to see the ways in which the Fed has caught up.\"The Fed's revised summary of economic projections (SEP) suggests its PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 2.1% by 2025 from its previous 2% projections in September. However, market forecasters are debating whether the Fed has incorporated the latest CPI report into its SEP, given the short notice from November's CPI release (December 13) to Powell's presser (December 14).UBS Securities economist Alan Detmeister articulated that the Fed's SEP indicates that \"[it has] extremely strong December numbers for inflation written in.\" However, the timing of November's CPI print might not have been reflected accordingly, even though Powell maintained in the pressor that such data points had been considered. Detmeister highlighted:Very few of them would have probably gone ahead and updated their submissions and really worked out what it would've taken in December to hit that target. - BloombergIs The Fed Willing To Drive A Deep Recession?Hence, investors looking through the recent media releases and commentary from economists and market strategists are likely more confused as they parse whether the Fed could be \"bluffing.\"RBC chief US economist Tom Porcelli even argued: \"This aggressive hiking cycle is going to cause some damage. The Fed will cut rates twice in 2023.\"Sure, bulls think that the Fed could be forced to cut rates, as even its revised SEP suggests a recession is looking increasingly likely. However, Powell declined to predict whether one could occur, emphasizing he doesn't have a crystal ball. Still, BofA strategists stressed that they see the potential for a \"Fed policy mistake driving hard landing.\"However, Edward Yardeni maintained his call in his December 15 briefing that the Fed's \"soft-landing forecast makes sense to us.\"Therefore, we believe investors have likely gleaned a series of confusing commentary rather than clarity as strategists and economists assess whether the Fed could force a recession to keep its commitment to pressing down inflation.Furthermore, S&P Global highlighted in a recent commentary that it sees inflationary pressures abating across the US economy, including services. It articulated:We got the steepest downturn we've seen since the global financial crisis, if the initial lockdown period is excluded. The good news is that this downturn in the economy is alleviating inflationary pressures. - WSJHence, could the Fed's head be turned, even as it expects to continue hiking rates through the end of 2023? Would the Fed be responsive enough to a potential policy error that could drive the economy to a deeper downturn than the FOMC had planned for?Even Summers has not ruled out that the labor market could be hit with a \"particularly sharp weakening,\" helping to alleviate one of the most consistent drivers of inflation markedly.The Market Was Already Primed For A Pullback, RegardlessHowever, despite the sharp recovery in October and the positive CPI print on Wednesday, we believe that market operators were never in doubt. The market was well-primed for a pullback. We also articulated in a recent commentary after the release of November's CPI metrics to our members:The market is still primed for a pullback. I [have already] revised the short-term market bias on November 22 to Bearish. We got the [initial] pullback, but it wasn't enough on the medium-term chart. So, [on December 12], I revised [the short-term bias] to Neutral to reflect the recent pullback [as] short-term indicators [are] no longer overbought. But, with yesterday's [December 13, post-CPI release] possible bull trap price action, I've revised it down one notch to Bearish-Neutral for our short-term bias. I will discuss this in more detail after we get more clarity on today's FOMC presser. - Ultimate Growth Investing December 14 - Pre-market briefingThat's right. The market has drawn in investors astutely into FOMO mode as they feared they missed its October lows. We highlighted to our members on October 21 that \"we have the bullish reversal condition that we need. So, we are good to go.\" During those days, we vividly recall that the media and strategists were highly pessimistic.We even highlighted in October to members that \"money managers are sitting on the highest levels of dry powder waiting to be deployed in twenty years.\" Therefore, we aren't surprised that Bloomberg reported:After a month of drawing down positions, investors poured $25 billion in stocks in the week through Wednesday only to see the S&P 500 plummet as the Federal Reserve and other central banks stuck with hawkish stances that threaten to spur a recession. - BloombergTakeawayRecall we mentioned that we revised our short-term market bias to Bearish on November 22, nearly four weeks ago. The market had prepared for this moment for a while, drawing in unsuspecting retail/institutional investors into FOMO, anticipating the Santa Claus rally to unfold.Our suggestion is this: Be wary. The pullback is likely far from over, and where it takes us next could portend whether October lows could be sustained. And don't FOMO again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957719327,"gmtCreate":1677547267170,"gmtModify":1677547271010,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will he sell shares again?&nbsp;","listText":"Will he sell shares again?&nbsp;","text":"Will he sell shares 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19:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309327810","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3.76B and $440MM for Family of Apps and Reality Labs respectively), and $32.17B in revenue beating street&#39;s revenue expectations.</p><p>META soared from $153 to $189 (+24%) with 150MM trading volume. This is in contrast to 232MM selloff post Q3-22 earnings resulting in -29% stock price drop due to EPS miss ($1.64 vs $1.89 expected).</p><p>During Q4-22 earnings call, the company did a great job &#39;selling&#39; their product strategies on WhatsApp, Reels, and AI, as well as plans on improving cost efficiencies with infrastructure and organizations. Except the mass layoff in Q4, I have seen limited evidence supporting the doubled stock price within three months. The market clearly just reacted to Meta&#39;s quarterly results. In my previous articles (Meta: Ads Business Growth At Risk; Meta Bets On WhatsApp To Replicate WeChat Success; Meta&#39;s Ads Risk With ARPU And CPM) I mainly discussed Meta&#39;s risk with advertising. Today I want to share a few more thoughts around their Q4-22 earning discussions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17753bb004be3b891707db6a9c822255\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Capital IQ</p><h2>Meta faces a dilemma between committing to Year of Efficiency and increasing investment in Reality Labs</h2><p>The company stated that 2023 would be the &#34;year of efficiency&#34; with mass layoff and restructuring as the starting point in Q4-22, and efficiency efforts will continue for Infrastructure, Org structure, and AI tooling. Specifically ROI of AI investments will be measured to inform their future spending. The company also made it clear that Reality Labs losses would continue to increase in 2023 from an already very pricey endeavor with $13.7B loss in 2022.</p><p>There are several problems between committing to efficiency and increasing investment in reality labs.</p><p>First, driving efficiency normally comes with costs of slowing down growth. If Meta indeed is going to fulfill their commitment in cost optimization, it means growth of some businesses will more or less be affected. Since Metaverse is still their long-term bet, in order to deliver on their vision, infrastructure would be critical to support the development. Although the company wanted to measure ROI of AI investments, guess how hard it would be to measure the return for this multi-year journey?</p><p>Second, comparing with Cloud leaders on the market, anecdotally Meta is pretty new in infrastructure capacity planning and CapEx optimization. I can think of various things that might limit Meta from moving fast. The foundational work of metering infrastructure usage by workload, the operational excellence in right-sizing data center footprints, and the trial and error required to understand tradeoffs between utilization and performance by workload. Just to name a few.</p><p>All in all, I am positive that a flatter organization would allow Meta to move faster, more thoughtful hiring plans will help keep HC costs under control. But infrastructure efficiency will be a tough dilemma Meta has to face, and eventually Meta will have to determine the ranked priority between Reality Labs investment and efficiency commitment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc7f66973ff47fd845c2ecc84228ee8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60f33ee92512776d6766fc3298ef47d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d9a60e815186cde0e971024685a538a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><h2>Reels likely won&#39;t take off until early 2024</h2><p>Reels, a short-form video product, is what Meta competes with TikTok. Unfortunately, the company seems lacking conviction in moving fast. As stated in Q4-22 earnings call, Reels monetization efficient is much less than feed, and revenue neutral will only be achieved by the end of this year or early 2024.</p><blockquote>&#34;We are not quantifying the gap in monetization efficiency between Reels and other services. We know it <i>took us several years to bring the gap close between Stories and Feed Ads.</i> And we expect that <i>this will take longer for Reels</i>&#34;.</blockquote><p>Note that by the end of 2023, TikTok is estimated to reach $18B in ad revenue. This is one of the tradeoffs when Meta leads the construction of future&#39;s metaverse.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9390db4a4c16ed767832337701ff391\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f3385e481cdaab68efd1f8793218a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company</p><p>Finally, although MAUs hit new highs, it worries me a little that Ads in North America has been trending flat. Growth in APAC and ROW means lower ARPU, lower CPM to offset higher volume of impressions. One of the potential reasons could be that advertisers started rationalizing their budget allocation and shifted towards Retail Media Networks and Short-form Video Ads. See my previous article, Walmart: Doubling Down In Retail Media Network.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I overall remain neutral for META stock. On the positive side, Meta repurchased $28B worth shares in 2022, and announced $40B share buyback in 2023. Meta also started talking about Ads monetization for WhatsApp. Getting fit is also a critical path for tech giants to regain growth momentum. On the flip side, I am skeptical how much efficiency improvement will materialize, and also feel slightly disappointed about the ramping plan for Reels in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms: Faces A Dilemma Between Year Of Efficiency And Reality Labs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-07 19:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575754-meta-platforms-4q-2022-earnings-dilemma-between-year-of-efficiency-reality-labs><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3.76B and $440MM for Family of Apps and Reality Labs respectively), and $32.17B in revenue beating ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575754-meta-platforms-4q-2022-earnings-dilemma-between-year-of-efficiency-reality-labs\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575754-meta-platforms-4q-2022-earnings-dilemma-between-year-of-efficiency-reality-labs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309327810","content_text":"Meta (NASDAQ:META) reported its Q4-22 earnings with $1.76 EPS (including restructuring charges of $3.76B and $440MM for Family of Apps and Reality Labs respectively), and $32.17B in revenue beating street's revenue expectations.META soared from $153 to $189 (+24%) with 150MM trading volume. This is in contrast to 232MM selloff post Q3-22 earnings resulting in -29% stock price drop due to EPS miss ($1.64 vs $1.89 expected).During Q4-22 earnings call, the company did a great job 'selling' their product strategies on WhatsApp, Reels, and AI, as well as plans on improving cost efficiencies with infrastructure and organizations. Except the mass layoff in Q4, I have seen limited evidence supporting the doubled stock price within three months. The market clearly just reacted to Meta's quarterly results. In my previous articles (Meta: Ads Business Growth At Risk; Meta Bets On WhatsApp To Replicate WeChat Success; Meta's Ads Risk With ARPU And CPM) I mainly discussed Meta's risk with advertising. Today I want to share a few more thoughts around their Q4-22 earning discussions.Capital IQMeta faces a dilemma between committing to Year of Efficiency and increasing investment in Reality LabsThe company stated that 2023 would be the \"year of efficiency\" with mass layoff and restructuring as the starting point in Q4-22, and efficiency efforts will continue for Infrastructure, Org structure, and AI tooling. Specifically ROI of AI investments will be measured to inform their future spending. The company also made it clear that Reality Labs losses would continue to increase in 2023 from an already very pricey endeavor with $13.7B loss in 2022.There are several problems between committing to efficiency and increasing investment in reality labs.First, driving efficiency normally comes with costs of slowing down growth. If Meta indeed is going to fulfill their commitment in cost optimization, it means growth of some businesses will more or less be affected. Since Metaverse is still their long-term bet, in order to deliver on their vision, infrastructure would be critical to support the development. Although the company wanted to measure ROI of AI investments, guess how hard it would be to measure the return for this multi-year journey?Second, comparing with Cloud leaders on the market, anecdotally Meta is pretty new in infrastructure capacity planning and CapEx optimization. I can think of various things that might limit Meta from moving fast. The foundational work of metering infrastructure usage by workload, the operational excellence in right-sizing data center footprints, and the trial and error required to understand tradeoffs between utilization and performance by workload. Just to name a few.All in all, I am positive that a flatter organization would allow Meta to move faster, more thoughtful hiring plans will help keep HC costs under control. But infrastructure efficiency will be a tough dilemma Meta has to face, and eventually Meta will have to determine the ranked priority between Reality Labs investment and efficiency commitment.CompanyCompanyCompanyReels likely won't take off until early 2024Reels, a short-form video product, is what Meta competes with TikTok. Unfortunately, the company seems lacking conviction in moving fast. As stated in Q4-22 earnings call, Reels monetization efficient is much less than feed, and revenue neutral will only be achieved by the end of this year or early 2024.\"We are not quantifying the gap in monetization efficiency between Reels and other services. We know it took us several years to bring the gap close between Stories and Feed Ads. And we expect that this will take longer for Reels\".Note that by the end of 2023, TikTok is estimated to reach $18B in ad revenue. This is one of the tradeoffs when Meta leads the construction of future's metaverse.CompanyCompanyFinally, although MAUs hit new highs, it worries me a little that Ads in North America has been trending flat. Growth in APAC and ROW means lower ARPU, lower CPM to offset higher volume of impressions. One of the potential reasons could be that advertisers started rationalizing their budget allocation and shifted towards Retail Media Networks and Short-form Video Ads. See my previous article, Walmart: Doubling Down In Retail Media Network.ConclusionI overall remain neutral for META stock. On the positive side, Meta repurchased $28B worth shares in 2022, and announced $40B share buyback in 2023. Meta also started talking about Ads monetization for WhatsApp. Getting fit is also a critical path for tech giants to regain growth momentum. On the flip side, I am skeptical how much efficiency improvement will materialize, and also feel slightly disappointed about the ramping plan for Reels in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922675001,"gmtCreate":1671764517904,"gmtModify":1676538589703,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922675001","repostId":"2293558389","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273197523165480,"gmtCreate":1707736565491,"gmtModify":1707737304190,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy chinese new year","listText":"Happy chinese new year","text":"Happy chinese new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273197523165480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271760770945288,"gmtCreate":1707385639025,"gmtModify":1707392112446,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy chinese new year! 🎉🧧","listText":"Happy chinese new year! 🎉🧧","text":"Happy chinese new year! 🎉🧧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271760770945288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942059301,"gmtCreate":1681088710703,"gmtModify":1681088714661,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?&nbsp;","listText":"Really?&nbsp;","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942059301","repostId":"1169219759","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169219759","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1680944804,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169219759?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2023-04-08 17:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk to Visit China This Weekend With Possible Tesla Plant Stop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169219759","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Elon Musk will be in China for a visit from Saturday, with a possible stop at Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk will be in China for a visit from Saturday, with a possible stop at Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory, according to people familiar with the plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The billionaire’s schedule is expected to include a meeting with local Shanghai authorities, the people said, declining to be identified because the trip hasn’t been disclosed publicly. The plans are fluid and may still change, they said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Musk’s visit outside of regular business hours.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Musk is traveling with Tom Zhu, who was named Tesla’s senior vice president of automotive this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Zhu joined in 2014 and led the construction and operations of Tesla’s factory in Shanghai, living in the facility during Covid-related lockdowns. He is one of just four named executive officers along with Musk, Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn and Drew Baglino, senior vice president of Powertrain and Energy Engineering.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the US, China is Tesla’s largest market, accounting for 22.3% of revenue in 2022. The company increased shipments from its Shanghai plant in March.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In October, the electric-vehicle maker — a major player in hyper-competitive China — cut prices on models produced at its enormous factory on the outskirts of Shanghai. Matters escalated in January, with another discount that left Tesla’s locally made cars as much as 14% cheaper than last year, and in some cases almost 50% less expensive than in the US and Europe.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk to Visit China This Weekend With Possible Tesla Plant Stop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk to Visit China This Weekend With Possible Tesla Plant Stop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-08 17:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-08/musk-to-visit-china-this-weekend-with-possible-tesla-plant-stop><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk will be in China for a visit from Saturday, with a possible stop at Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory, according to people familiar with the plans.The billionaire’s schedule is expected to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-08/musk-to-visit-china-this-weekend-with-possible-tesla-plant-stop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-08/musk-to-visit-china-this-weekend-with-possible-tesla-plant-stop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169219759","content_text":"Elon Musk will be in China for a visit from Saturday, with a possible stop at Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory, according to people familiar with the plans.The billionaire’s schedule is expected to include a meeting with local Shanghai authorities, the people said, declining to be identified because the trip hasn’t been disclosed publicly. The plans are fluid and may still change, they said.Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Musk’s visit outside of regular business hours.Musk is traveling with Tom Zhu, who was named Tesla’s senior vice president of automotive this month.Zhu joined in 2014 and led the construction and operations of Tesla’s factory in Shanghai, living in the facility during Covid-related lockdowns. He is one of just four named executive officers along with Musk, Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn and Drew Baglino, senior vice president of Powertrain and Energy Engineering.After the US, China is Tesla’s largest market, accounting for 22.3% of revenue in 2022. The company increased shipments from its Shanghai plant in March.In October, the electric-vehicle maker — a major player in hyper-competitive China — cut prices on models produced at its enormous factory on the outskirts of Shanghai. Matters escalated in January, with another discount that left Tesla’s locally made cars as much as 14% cheaper than last year, and in some cases almost 50% less expensive than in the US and Europe.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967122476,"gmtCreate":1670286421496,"gmtModify":1676538336385,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goal","listText":"Goal","text":"Goal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967122476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967947336,"gmtCreate":1670255085325,"gmtModify":1676538330644,"author":{"id":"3576649215225776","authorId":"3576649215225776","name":"Reddragon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29a2bb4a1d16b0dd4ca6c8245dbf2e7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576649215225776","authorIdStr":"3576649215225776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967947336","repostId":"2289625158","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2289625158","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670227883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2289625158?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-12-05 16:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289625158","media":"Reuters","summary":"Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to November, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.</p><p>Reuters was not able to immediately ascertain the reason for the December reduction in the electric vehicle (EV) giant&#39;s latest production plan.</p><p>Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the planned cut, first reported by Bloomberg.</p><p>China has partially eased tough COVID-19 curbs on people and businesses aimed at stamping out all outbreaks of the virus, but many restrictions are still in place. These have dampened demand and triggered local production slowdowns across the auto industry because of difficulties in securing component supplies.</p><p>Tesla added to its electric vehicle inventory in Shanghai at its fastest pace ever in October, according to China Merchants Bank International (CBMI) data. Chief Executive Elon Musk has said China, the company&#39;s second-largest market, was in a &#34;recession of sorts&#34;.</p><p>Even so, Tesla&#39;s retail sales in China nearly doubled in the first four weeks of November from a year earlier, after the automaker cut prices and offered incentives on its Model 3 and Model Y models, the data from CMBI showed.</p><p>Globally, Tesla had planned to push production of the Model Y and Model 3 EVs sharply higher in the fourth quarter as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, Reuters reported in September.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Cuts Dec Model Y Output at Shanghai Plant By More Than 20% Versus Nov - Sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 16:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-tesla-cuts-dec-model-073737893.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to November, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.Reuters was not able to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-tesla-cuts-dec-model-073737893.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-tesla-cuts-dec-model-073737893.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289625158","content_text":"Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% compared to November, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.Reuters was not able to immediately ascertain the reason for the December reduction in the electric vehicle (EV) giant's latest production plan.Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the planned cut, first reported by Bloomberg.China has partially eased tough COVID-19 curbs on people and businesses aimed at stamping out all outbreaks of the virus, but many restrictions are still in place. These have dampened demand and triggered local production slowdowns across the auto industry because of difficulties in securing component supplies.Tesla added to its electric vehicle inventory in Shanghai at its fastest pace ever in October, according to China Merchants Bank International (CBMI) data. Chief Executive Elon Musk has said China, the company's second-largest market, was in a \"recession of sorts\".Even so, Tesla's retail sales in China nearly doubled in the first four weeks of November from a year earlier, after the automaker cut prices and offered incentives on its Model 3 and Model Y models, the data from CMBI showed.Globally, Tesla had planned to push production of the Model Y and Model 3 EVs sharply higher in the fourth quarter as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, Reuters reported in September.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}