crazybee1235 personal page - To The Moon

crazybee1235

crazybee1235

No personal profile

204Follow

13Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-06-16

hi

US chip stocks fell across the board, with Micron Technology dropping more than 5%.

2022-06-16

hi

Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears

2022-06-15

Hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-15

Hi

The Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?

2022-06-15

Hi

The Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?

2022-06-11

Hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-02

hi

Who is responsible for the economic recession, Biden or Powell?

2022-05-30

hi

Pre-market fluctuations | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally decline! Didi bucked the trend and surged more than 7%.

2022-05-30

hi

Opening | All three major US stock indexes opened higher, with Pinduoduo rising over 7%.

2022-05-29

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-28

hi

Howard Marks' latest memo: "The Rhythm of the Bull Market"

2022-05-21

hi

U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%

2022-05-18

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-18

hi

Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down

2022-05-10

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-10

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-10

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-09

hi

Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week

2022-05-09

hi

The sell-off in US stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point for the market?

2022-05-08

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3576803992145384","uuid":"3576803992145384","gmtCreate":1613720731611,"gmtModify":1706620739666,"name":"crazybee1235","pinyin":"crazybee1235","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":13,"headSize":204,"tweetSize":157,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.08.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9054679664,"gmtCreate":1655388060058,"gmtModify":1676535627984,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054679664","repostId":"1175075343","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175075343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655387468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175075343?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 21:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"US chip stocks fell across the board, with Micron Technology dropping more than 5%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175075343","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，美股芯片股集体走低，美光科技跌超5%，英伟达、AMD、阿斯麦跌超4%，英特尔跌近3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 16, US chip stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>It fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99096fe68ff55e82b105991d287b1e0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US chip stocks fell across the board, with Micron Technology dropping more than 5%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS chip stocks fell across the board, with Micron Technology dropping more than 5%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-16 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 16, US chip stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>It fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99096fe68ff55e82b105991d287b1e0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","MU":"美光科技","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175075343","content_text":"6月16日，美股芯片股集体走低，美光科技跌超5%，英伟达、AMD、阿斯麦跌超4%，英特尔跌近3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054679887,"gmtCreate":1655388036349,"gmtModify":1676535627987,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054679887","repostId":"1118727036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118727036","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655386410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118727036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118727036","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-16 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118727036","content_text":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055424017,"gmtCreate":1655304467739,"gmtModify":1676535608884,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055424017","repostId":"2243091930","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055425687,"gmtCreate":1655304394149,"gmtModify":1676535608892,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055425687","repostId":"1183345309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183345309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655275365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183345309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183345309","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员","content":"<p><div>\"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,\" said NYSE trader Anderson. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed their psychological preparation overnight. “Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,” Timothy Anderson, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange, explained to CBN reporters. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, released on the 10th, clearly show that inflation, which is of utmost concern to the American people, is still worsening. \"Fed officials must inform consumers...\"</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-15 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>\"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,\" said NYSE trader Anderson. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed their psychological preparation overnight. “Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,” Timothy Anderson, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange, explained to CBN reporters. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, released on the 10th, clearly show that inflation, which is of utmost concern to the American people, is still worsening. \"Fed officials must inform consumers...\"</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183345309","content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示：“各大央行好像自己都慌了，市场突然需要接受这个高利率的新时代，因此股市出现大幅调整，也是合理的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055422209,"gmtCreate":1655304339401,"gmtModify":1676535608843,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055422209","repostId":"1183345309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183345309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655275365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183345309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183345309","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员","content":"<p><div>\"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,\" said NYSE trader Anderson. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed their psychological preparation overnight. “Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,” Timothy Anderson, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange, explained to CBN reporters. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, released on the 10th, clearly show that inflation, which is of utmost concern to the American people, is still worsening. \"Fed officials must inform consumers...\"</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's 75 basis point rate hike has become the consensus on Wall Street. How far are US stocks from bottoming out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-15 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>\"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,\" said NYSE trader Anderson. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed their psychological preparation overnight. “Suddenly, the market reached a consensus,” Timothy Anderson, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange, explained to CBN reporters. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, released on the 10th, clearly show that inflation, which is of utmost concern to the American people, is still worsening. \"Fed officials must inform consumers...\"</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183345309","content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示：“各大央行好像自己都慌了，市场突然需要接受这个高利率的新时代，因此股市出现大幅调整，也是合理的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056399638,"gmtCreate":1654936400824,"gmtModify":1676535537334,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056399638","repostId":"2242634960","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050695669,"gmtCreate":1654179895751,"gmtModify":1676535407717,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050695669","repostId":"1125287126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125287126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654165500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125287126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-02 18:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who is responsible for the economic recession, Biden or Powell?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125287126","media":"金十数据","summary":"拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Biden has shifted the blame for rapidly rising prices to the Federal Reserve, but the White House may not be ready for what comes next. When a midterm election year coincides with rampant high inflation, the best political move may be to point the finger at the central bank. After all, stabilizing prices is one of their important tasks. However, government leaders may find that the price of curbing inflation is an economic recession. It is unclear whether they are prepared to deal with this outcome.</p><p>With prices in Europe, the Americas, and Australia rising at their fastest pace in decades, it makes sense to allow central bank officials to continue their mission without political pressure. At least in theory, central banks should be able to act quickly, without the need for partisan haggling like government legislation.</p><p>For governments, this is a win-win situation: they can simultaneously shirk responsibility for failure and enjoy the joy of success. On Tuesday, US President Biden's speech to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell carried a strong sense of authorization. Biden declared:</p><p>“My plan is to solve inflation, and it starts with a simple proposition: respect the Federal Reserve, respect the Federal Reserve’s independence. I have done that now and will continue to do so.” The Federal Reserve’s autonomy is considered the gold standard—just as former US President Trump insulted Powell and proposed his removal. Even in the best of times, this independence is not entirely pure, and Federal Reserve officials will closely monitor the mood of Congress.</p><p><b>So why does Biden feel it necessary to emphasize that Powell can play freely? Columnist Daniel Moss points out that the reason is that the Federal Reserve chairman should recognize the opportunities and dangers inherent in the process of free play. The subtext is that you can tighten economic policy however you want, but it's your responsibility, and you have to take responsibility for it.</b></p><p>Of course, while leaders want inflation to fall, they also like a strong labor market and hate a recession. Will Biden pay the ultimate price for ordering Powell to act? Moss is skeptical.</p><p>Powell may not want a recession either, but he is keenly aware that the global economy is on the decline. He is inevitably compared to Paul Volcker, who served as chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volcker stopped inflation at the cost of a severe recession, and he also had unpleasant conversations with Reagan during his administration. The polls were already bad for Democrats in the midterm elections in November. Slowing economic growth and a cooling job market will not help much.</p><p>Despite his heroism, Volcker may not be a perfect analogy under the current circumstances. The world in the early 1980s was fairly controlled: the Cold War was raging, and half the world had almost no capital markets. Volcker was doing so with great force against inflation, which had been worsening for at least a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In a recent report, global economist Ethan Harris wrote that this cannot be compared to the current situation:</p><p>\"The last thing the world needs right now is a policy shock on the scale of Volcker. Volcker more or less deliberately created one of the biggest recessions in modern history. This time is different.\" While central banks are powerless to address supply chain bottlenecks, they may have peaked, and a key measure of inflation could fall before the end of the year.</p><p>Biden’s remarks should also be viewed within the broader context of Washington’s current defense. Earlier this week, Biden wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about how he would curb inflation. The monthly nonfarm payrolls report, due out on Friday, may be the most politically significant economic report before inflation erupts.<b>Senior officials have been cautious in saying that job growth may slow, which Biden described as \"a sign that we have successfully entered the next phase of the recovery.\"</b>Now seems like a good time to correct the mistake. In an interview with CNN, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she incorrectly predicted last year that the price increase would be short-lived.</p><p>Yellen, who served as Federal Reserve chair before Powell, is a good example. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, central banks around the world were surprised by the lack of inflation. In reality, not every optimistic figure hides price increases. This has led policymakers from various central banks to focus on boosting the labor market. They claim to be more inclined towards results than predictions.</p><p>The risk today is that if central banks need to wait for clear and unambiguous signs that inflation has ended, they may miss the opportunity to reverse the economic downturn. This may force them not to cut interest rates more times in the future. This cycle will repeat itself.</p><p><b>As a result, central bank independence will be an attractive way to set money prices because central banks can act quickly if needed.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is responsible for the economic recession, Biden or Powell?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is responsible for the economic recession, Biden or Powell?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-02 18:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Biden has shifted the blame for rapidly rising prices to the Federal Reserve, but the White House may not be ready for what comes next. When a midterm election year coincides with rampant high inflation, the best political move may be to point the finger at the central bank. After all, stabilizing prices is one of their important tasks. However, government leaders may find that the price of curbing inflation is an economic recession. It is unclear whether they are prepared to deal with this outcome.</p><p>With prices in Europe, the Americas, and Australia rising at their fastest pace in decades, it makes sense to allow central bank officials to continue their mission without political pressure. At least in theory, central banks should be able to act quickly, without the need for partisan haggling like government legislation.</p><p>For governments, this is a win-win situation: they can simultaneously shirk responsibility for failure and enjoy the joy of success. On Tuesday, US President Biden's speech to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell carried a strong sense of authorization. Biden declared:</p><p>“My plan is to solve inflation, and it starts with a simple proposition: respect the Federal Reserve, respect the Federal Reserve’s independence. I have done that now and will continue to do so.” The Federal Reserve’s autonomy is considered the gold standard—just as former US President Trump insulted Powell and proposed his removal. Even in the best of times, this independence is not entirely pure, and Federal Reserve officials will closely monitor the mood of Congress.</p><p><b>So why does Biden feel it necessary to emphasize that Powell can play freely? Columnist Daniel Moss points out that the reason is that the Federal Reserve chairman should recognize the opportunities and dangers inherent in the process of free play. The subtext is that you can tighten economic policy however you want, but it's your responsibility, and you have to take responsibility for it.</b></p><p>Of course, while leaders want inflation to fall, they also like a strong labor market and hate a recession. Will Biden pay the ultimate price for ordering Powell to act? Moss is skeptical.</p><p>Powell may not want a recession either, but he is keenly aware that the global economy is on the decline. He is inevitably compared to Paul Volcker, who served as chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volcker stopped inflation at the cost of a severe recession, and he also had unpleasant conversations with Reagan during his administration. The polls were already bad for Democrats in the midterm elections in November. Slowing economic growth and a cooling job market will not help much.</p><p>Despite his heroism, Volcker may not be a perfect analogy under the current circumstances. The world in the early 1980s was fairly controlled: the Cold War was raging, and half the world had almost no capital markets. Volcker was doing so with great force against inflation, which had been worsening for at least a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In a recent report, global economist Ethan Harris wrote that this cannot be compared to the current situation:</p><p>\"The last thing the world needs right now is a policy shock on the scale of Volcker. Volcker more or less deliberately created one of the biggest recessions in modern history. This time is different.\" While central banks are powerless to address supply chain bottlenecks, they may have peaked, and a key measure of inflation could fall before the end of the year.</p><p>Biden’s remarks should also be viewed within the broader context of Washington’s current defense. Earlier this week, Biden wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about how he would curb inflation. The monthly nonfarm payrolls report, due out on Friday, may be the most politically significant economic report before inflation erupts.<b>Senior officials have been cautious in saying that job growth may slow, which Biden described as \"a sign that we have successfully entered the next phase of the recovery.\"</b>Now seems like a good time to correct the mistake. In an interview with CNN, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she incorrectly predicted last year that the price increase would be short-lived.</p><p>Yellen, who served as Federal Reserve chair before Powell, is a good example. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, central banks around the world were surprised by the lack of inflation. In reality, not every optimistic figure hides price increases. This has led policymakers from various central banks to focus on boosting the labor market. They claim to be more inclined towards results than predictions.</p><p>The risk today is that if central banks need to wait for clear and unambiguous signs that inflation has ended, they may miss the opportunity to reverse the economic downturn. This may force them not to cut interest rates more times in the future. This cycle will repeat itself.</p><p><b>As a result, central bank independence will be an attractive way to set money prices because central banks can act quickly if needed.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95000\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f80b4f5ca39b50a8c2a9898ba64544","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95000","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125287126","content_text":"拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导人可能会发现，抑制通胀的代价是经济衰退。目前尚不清楚他们是否准备好应对这一结果。随着欧洲、美洲和澳洲的物价正在以几十年最快的速度上涨，让央行官员们在没有政治压力的情况下继续他们的任务是合理的。至少在理论上，央行应该能够迅速采取行动，不会像政府立法那样需要党派之间的讨价还价。对于政府来说，这是一个双赢的局面：他们可以一边为推卸失败的责任，一边享受成功的喜悦。周二，美国总统拜登对美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话中，就带有一种强烈的授权意味。拜登宣称：“我的计划是解决通货膨胀问题，这始于一个简单的命题：尊重美联储，尊重美联储的独立性，我现在已经这么做了，而且将继续这样做。”美联储的自主权都被视为是黄金标准——就像前任美国总统特朗普辱骂鲍威尔并提出罢免他一样。即使在最好的时候，这种独立性也不是完全纯粹的，美联储官员会密切关注国会的情绪。那么，为什么拜登觉得有必要去强调鲍威尔可以自由发挥呢？专栏作家Daniel Moss指出，原因在于，美联储主席应当会认识到自由发挥过程中所隐含的机遇和危险。潜台词是，你想如何紧缩经济政策都可以，但这是你的责任，你得对它负责。当然，虽然领导人希望通胀回落，但他们也喜欢强劲的劳动力市场，讨厌经济衰退。拜登是否会为因命令鲍威尔采取行动而付出最终代价？Moss对此持怀疑态度。鲍威尔可能也不想要经济衰退，但他已经敏锐地意识到全球经济正在走下坡路。人们不可避免地将他与1979年-1987年担任美联储主席的保罗•沃尔克相提并论。沃尔克以严重的经济衰退为代价阻止了通胀，并且他在里根执政期间也与里根有过令人不快的谈话。在11月的中期选举中，民意调查对于民主党人来说已经很糟糕了。经济增长放缓和就业市场降温并不会对此什么帮助。尽管沃尔克很英勇，但在当前情况下，他可能不是一个完美的类比。1980年代初期的世界相当受控制：冷战进行得很激烈，全球一半地区几乎没有资本市场。沃尔克在他这样做的时候以巨大的力量打击通胀，因为通货膨胀至少已经恶化了十年。美国银行全球经济学家伊桑哈里斯在最近的一份报告中写道，这与现在的情况无法相提并论：“世界现在最不需要的就是沃尔克规模的政策冲击。沃尔克或多或少地故意制造了现代历史上最大的衰退之一。这次不一样。”虽然央行对供应链瓶颈无能为力，但瓶颈可能已经达到顶峰，衡量通胀的一项关键指标可能会在年底前回落。拜登的言论也应该放在华盛顿当前更广泛的防御背景下去看待。本周早些时候，拜登为《华尔街日报》撰写了一篇关于他将如何遏制通胀的专栏文章。即将在周五发布的月度非农就业报告可能是通胀爆发前最具政治意义的经济报告。高级官员一直谨慎地表示，就业增长可能会放缓，而拜登将这种情况描述为“这是我们成功进入复苏的下一阶段的迹象”。现在似乎是纠正错误的好时机。美国财政部长耶伦（Janet Yellen）在接受CNN采访时表示，她去年错误地预测了物价上涨将是短暂的。而在鲍威尔之前担任美联储主席的耶伦则是一个很好的例子。2007-2009年全球金融危机之后，全球央行都因没有出现通胀而感到吃惊。实际上，并非每一个乐观的数字背后都隐藏着价格上涨。这使得从各个央行的政策制定者都专注于推动劳动力市场的升温。他们宣称更倾向于结果，而不是预测。如今的风险是，如果央行们需要等待通胀已经结束的明确和明确迹象，他们可能会错过扭转经济转向下行的机会。这可能会使他们不能不在未来降息更多次数。这种循环将不断重演下去。结果是，央行的独立性将是一种设定货币价格的有吸引力的方式，因为如果有需要，央行可以迅速采取行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024848384,"gmtCreate":1653863304848,"gmtModify":1676535350865,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024848384","repostId":"1168055084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168055084","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653638568,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168055084?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 16:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market fluctuations | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally decline! Didi bucked the trend and surged more than 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168055084","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股三大股指期货小幅下跌，道指期货跌0.09%，纳指期货跌0.26%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。热门中概股盘前走势分化，哔哩哔哩、RLX科技跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、小鹏汽车跌逾1%","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes fell slightly, with Dow Jones futures down 0.09%, Nasdaq futures down 0.26%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.09%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853ba25e93031b37e0c67abf795b5359\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks diverged in pre-market performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 1%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It surged more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose slightly.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>The stock fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading, with Q3 gross margin down 0.99% amid market concerns that gross margins would be under pressure from inflation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Company</a>The stock fell more than 13% in pre-market trading, as it will raise approximately $125 million through an underwriting agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>The stock fell 16% in pre-market trading after first-quarter results fell short of expectations, prompting the company to significantly lower its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>The stock rose about 10.5% in pre-market trading, with Q1 revenue and operating profit both hitting new highs, and net profit increasing by 62% year-on-year to $1.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maywell Technology</a>It rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after Q1 revenue increased 74% year-over-year to $1.45 billion, better than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market fluctuations | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally decline! Didi bucked the trend and surged more than 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market fluctuations | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally decline! Didi bucked the trend and surged more than 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes fell slightly, with Dow Jones futures down 0.09%, Nasdaq futures down 0.26%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.09%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853ba25e93031b37e0c67abf795b5359\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks diverged in pre-market performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 1%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It surged more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose slightly.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>The stock fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading, with Q3 gross margin down 0.99% amid market concerns that gross margins would be under pressure from inflation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Company</a>The stock fell more than 13% in pre-market trading, as it will raise approximately $125 million through an underwriting agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>The stock fell 16% in pre-market trading after first-quarter results fell short of expectations, prompting the company to significantly lower its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>The stock rose about 10.5% in pre-market trading, with Q1 revenue and operating profit both hitting new highs, and net profit increasing by 62% year-on-year to $1.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maywell Technology</a>It rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after Q1 revenue increased 74% year-over-year to $1.45 billion, better than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4022":"陆运","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","XPEV":"小鹏集团","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4539":"次新股","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","03086":"华夏纳指","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4531":"中概回港概念","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","COST":"好市多","BK4526":"热门中概股","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","09868":"小鹏集团-W",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168055084","content_text":"5月27日，美股三大股指期货小幅下跌，道指期货跌0.09%，纳指期货跌0.26%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。热门中概股盘前走势分化，哔哩哔哩、RLX科技跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、小鹏汽车跌逾1%；滴滴大涨逾7%，拼多多、京东小幅走高。好市多盘前跌近2%，Q3毛利率下降0.99%，市场担忧通胀下毛利率承压。奥罗拉大麻公司盘前跌逾13%，将通过包销协议融资约1.25亿美元。Gap盘前跌16%，一季度业绩不及预期，公司大幅下调2022财年全年指引。戴尔盘前涨约10.5%，Q1营收、运营利润均创新高，净利同比增62%至11亿美元。迈威尔科技盘前涨近4%，Q1营收同比增74%至14.5亿美元，好于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09868":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"COST":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"RLX":0.9,"09626":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024848020,"gmtCreate":1653863266160,"gmtModify":1676535350858,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024848020","repostId":"1169637590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169637590","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653658233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169637590?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | All three major US stock indexes opened higher, with Pinduoduo rising over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169637590","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨66.72点，涨幅0.20%，报32703.91点；标普500指数开盘上涨32.42点，涨幅0.80%，报4090.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 66.72 points, or 0.20%, to 32,703.91. The S&P 500 opened up 32.42 points, or 0.80%, at 4090.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened 175.14 points higher, or 1.49%, at 11,915.79.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>The stock rose more than 7%, with Q1 revenue increasing by 7% year-on-year to 23.8 billion yuan, turning a loss into a profit compared to the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>It rose more than 15%, with both revenue and operating profit hitting new highs in the first quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>The company fell more than 11% after its first-quarter results fell short of expectations and it significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maywell Technology</a>The stock rose 5.54%, with Q1 revenue increasing 74% year-over-year to $1.45 billion, better than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch</a>It rose over 11%, recording Q1 revenue of $515 million, and received subsequent results.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>We maintain our \"Buy\" rating.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">lychee</a>The company rose 5.26%, with Q1 revenue increasing by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 517 million and net profit increasing by over 80% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 16.418 million.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | All three major US stock indexes opened higher, with Pinduoduo rising over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | All three major US stock indexes opened higher, with Pinduoduo rising over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 66.72 points, or 0.20%, to 32,703.91. The S&P 500 opened up 32.42 points, or 0.80%, at 4090.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened 175.14 points higher, or 1.49%, at 11,915.79.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>The stock rose more than 7%, with Q1 revenue increasing by 7% year-on-year to 23.8 billion yuan, turning a loss into a profit compared to the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>It rose more than 15%, with both revenue and operating profit hitting new highs in the first quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>The company fell more than 11% after its first-quarter results fell short of expectations and it significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maywell Technology</a>The stock rose 5.54%, with Q1 revenue increasing 74% year-over-year to $1.45 billion, better than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch</a>It rose over 11%, recording Q1 revenue of $515 million, and received subsequent results.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>We maintain our \"Buy\" rating.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">lychee</a>The company rose 5.26%, with Q1 revenue increasing by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 517 million and net profit increasing by over 80% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 16.418 million.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4501":"段永平概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4558":"双十一","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169637590","content_text":"5月27日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨66.72点，涨幅0.20%，报32703.91点；标普500指数开盘上涨32.42点，涨幅0.80%，报4090.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨175.14点，涨幅1.49%，报11915.79点。拼多多涨超7%，Q1营收同比增长7%至238亿元，较上年同期扭亏为盈。戴尔涨超15%，一季度营收、运营利润均创新高。Gap跌超11%，公司一季度业绩不及预期并大幅下调2022财年全年指引。迈威尔科技涨5.54%，Q1营收同比增74%至14.5亿美元，好于市场预期。Farfetch涨超11%，Q1录得营收5.15亿美元，绩后获摩根士丹利维持增持评级。荔枝涨5.26%，Q1营收同比增长4.4%至5.17亿元，净利润环比增长超80%至1641.8万元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GPS":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024894305,"gmtCreate":1653836091907,"gmtModify":1676535348985,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024894305","repostId":"1123332477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025651922,"gmtCreate":1653690940966,"gmtModify":1676535325801,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025651922","repostId":"1157934587","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157934587","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1653655854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157934587?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 20:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks' latest memo: \"The Rhythm of the Bull Market\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157934587","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在$橡树资本$联合创始人霍华德·马克斯这篇名为《牛市的韵律》的最新备忘录中，对牛市周期规律进行了分析，并指出通过投资者行为可判断出当下所处阶段，在股市崩盘之前趁早离场。马克斯表示，投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。我先提前声明，本次备忘录并不能预估市场的潜在方向。标普500指数先是在2020年2月19日创下3386点的历史新高，随后在短短34天内重挫三分之一，并在3月23日跌至2237点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>For a century, the stock market has experienced ups and downs, a cycle that has never stopped, with countless cycles streaking across the historical sky like brilliant shooting stars.</p><p>Why do cycles exist, and why do investors invest so much energy in the ongoing struggle against market volatility? Because their investment psychology is constantly influencing market trends. As long as humans are involved in investing, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks<b>This latest memo, titled \"Bull Market Rhymes,\" analyzes the patterns of Bull Market cycles and points out that investor behavior can help determine the current stage and allow investors to exit the Market before it collapses.</b></p><p>Driven by the pursuit of their dreams of wealth, investors may lack appropriate fear during a bull market frenzy, and the emergence of this frenzy foreshadows the approach of risk.</p><p>Max said,<b>Investors must know when bull sentiment prevails and maintain the necessary caution. \"Bull market mentality\" is not a positive term; it implies careless behavior and a high risk tolerance. Investors should be worried, not encouraged.</b>：</p><p>It is risk aversion and fear of loss that keep the market safe and rational. Max pointed out<b>Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals.</b>。 High returns in a bull market make people more confident that new things, low-probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to conclude that \"there are no stocks that are too expensive.\" At this time, new entrants bought heavily, and the stock market remained at a high level. Prudence, selectivity, and discipline disappear when they are needed most.</p><p>Max also cited the current stock market trend as an example:</p><p>On Wall Street today, news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that depressed the stock market. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid fears that an overheated economy would lead to another rate hike. Max stated frankly that he believes in enduring investment maxims, therefore<b>The greatest investor behavior should be \"what the wise begin and what the foolish end.\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The following is the full text of the memorandum:</p><p>Although I use a lot of maxims and quotes in my memos, only a few make it onto my top list. One of my favorites is Mark Twain's famous quote:</p><p>History will not repeat itself, but it will repeat itself in a similar rhythm. It is known that Mark Twain said the first four words in 1874, but there is no definitive evidence that he ever said the latter.</p><p>Over the years, many people have said similar things. In 1965, psychoanalyst Theodor Reik expressed the same view in an article entitled \"Unreachable\". He himself added a few more words, which I think he put best:</p><p>The cycle is repeated, with ups and downs, but the process is basically the same and changes very little. Some say that history will repeat itself, but this may not be entirely accurate; history simply repeats itself in a similar rhythm. Past investment events will not repeat themselves, but the main theme of the events will indeed reappear, especially those related to investment behavior, which is exactly what I study.</p><p>Over the past two years, the cycle described by Reik has experienced ups and downs, attracting market attention. What particularly struck me was the reappearance of typical styles in investment behavior, which will be the subject of this memo.</p><p>Let me state in advance that this memorandum cannot predict the potential direction of the market. For example, the market's bullish behavior began when it bottomed out in March 2020, but since then, serious problems have occurred both internally (inflation) and externally (the Russia-Ukraine conflict), and significant adjustments have taken place. No one, including myself, can know what impact these things will have on the future.</p><p>My purpose in writing this memo is simply to place recent events in historical context and to discover some implicit lessons from them. This is crucial because we must go back 22 years, before the bursting of the technology, media, and telecommunications bubble in 2000, and look at the beginning of the real bull market and the end of the resulting bear market. Many readers, because they started investing late, did not experience the events at the time.</p><p>You might ask, \"What were market returns like before the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic caused the market to collapse?\"</p><p>In my view, prior to these two crises, the market rose gradually, not along a parabolic path. The rise was not driven by fanaticism, stock prices were not pushed to crazy heights, and high stock prices were not the cause of any crisis. The 2008-2009 crisis stemmed from the real estate market and the emergence of subprime mortgage securitization, while the 2020 collapse was due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's shutdown of the economy to control the pandemic.</p><p>Regarding the \"true bull market\" mentioned earlier, my definition of it does not come from Investopedia:</p><p><ul><li>The price of an asset or security in a financial market rises continuously over a period of time.</p><p></li><li>The market typically sees a 20% increase after a 20% drop in stock price.</p><p></li></ul>The first definition is too bland and fails to capture the core emotions of investors during a bull market. The second definition provides a false precision; a bull market should not be defined by a percentage change in price. For me, it's best described in terms of how it feels, the investor psychology behind it, and the investment behavior that results.</p><p>(I started investing before the numerical standards for bull and bear markets were developed, and I think such standards are meaningless. Does it really matter if the S&P 500 falls 19.9% or 20.1%? I still prefer the old-fashioned definition of a bear market—nerve-racking.)</p><p><b>01. Transition and Correction</b></p><p>My second book is \"Cycle\" Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. As we all know, I am a student of cycles and a believer in cycles. Over the years, as an investor, I have gone through several important cycles (and received education).</p><p>I believe that understanding our position in the market cycle can tell us what will happen next. But when I was two-thirds of the way through the book, I suddenly thought of a question I had never considered before: Why do cycles exist?</p><p>For example, the S&P 500 index was created in 1957, and its average annual return over the past 65 years has been slightly higher than 10%. Why can't its return be 10% every year? To add to the question I raised in my July 2004 memo, \"The Doctrine of the Mean,\" why did the S&P 500 only return between 8% and 12% six times during this period, and why did it perform so far below that level 90% of the time?</p><p>After some thought, I think it can be explained as follows: there are \"excesses and corrections\" in the market.</p><p>If you compare the stock market to a machine, the idea that you want it to run consistently and steadily over time is reasonable. However, I believe that the significant influence of investors' psychological state on their decision-making can largely explain the reasons for market volatility.</p><p>When investors start bullish, they tend to draw the following conclusions.</p><p>First, everything will always rise; Secondly, no matter how much they pay for an asset, others will buy it from them at a higher price (i.e., the \"bigger fool\" theory) because they are very optimistic about the market's height:</p><p><ul><li>The stock price will rise faster than the company's profit growth, and the increase will be much higher than the fair value (excess increase).</p><p></li><li>After that, the investment environment began to disappoint, the foolish move of offering high prices became prominent, and the stock price would fall to its fair value (corrected), and then fall further below that price level.</p><p></li><li>A decline in stock prices can further trigger pessimism in the market, causing the stock price to fall far below its intrinsic value (excessive decline).</p><p></li><li>Ultimately, buying at the bottom will help the sluggish stock price rebound to its fair value (revised).</p><p></li></ul>Excessive gains can lead to above-average returns for a period of time, while excessive declines can also lead to below-average returns for a period of time. Of course, there may be other factors at play, but I think \"excess and correction\" can explain most of the situation. During 2020-2021, we saw some excessive gains in the stock market, and now we see them being corrected.</p><p><b>02. Bull Market Psychology</b></p><p>In a bull market, a favorable environment can lead to a rise in stock prices and boost investor confidence. This investment confidence can trigger aggressive operations, which in turn will further trigger a rise in stock prices. This will lead to a more optimistic investment attitude and continued risk-taking.</p><p>This upward spiral is the essence of a bull market, and its upward process seems unstoppable.</p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, we witnessed a typical asset price collapse. The S&P 500 first hit a record high of 3,386 points on February 19, 2020, then plummeted by a third in just 34 days, falling to 2,237 points on March 23. However, thanks to the joint efforts of various forces, the stock price rose sharply again:</p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve lowered Federal Funds rate to near zero and, together with the Treasury Department, announced large-scale economic stimulus measures.</p><p></li><li>These actions have convinced investors that state institutions will stop at nothing to stabilize the economy.</p><p></li><li>Interest rate cuts have significantly reduced the expected returns on investments, affecting their relative attractiveness.</p><p></li><li>These factors combine to force investors to begin accepting risks that arise in the short term.</p><p></li><li>Asset prices subsequently rose: by the end of August of that year, the S&P 500 had recovered all its losses and surpassed its February high.</p><p></li><li>FAAMG (Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Software stocks and other technology stocks rose sharply, driving the market higher.</p><p></li><li>Ultimately, investors concluded that they could expect the stock market to continue rising, which aligned with their usual mindset during previous bull markets.</p><p></li></ul>As mentioned above, the most important thing in bull market psychology is that most people believe that rising stock prices are a positive sign of future market conditions, and many people have begun to become optimistic. Only a few people would suspect that this market rally is excessive, as its returns depend on future expectations, so the rise will not last, and the market will reverse.</p><p>This reminds me of another of my favorite maxims, one I first learned about 50 years ago: \"The three stages of a bull market\":</p><p>The first stage, when some visionaries began to bet that a bull market might be coming;</p><p>The second stage is when most investors realize that a bull market is happening;</p><p>The third stage is when everyone believes the bull market will last forever.</p><p>Interestingly, although the stock market quickly transformed from a weak bottom in March 2020 to a boom in May under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, skepticism was the most common investor mentality I encountered during this period. The questions they asked me most often were:</p><p>With the environment so bad, the pandemic raging, and the economy stagnating, how can the stock market still rise? It was hard to find optimists back then. Many investors become what my late father-in-law described as \"handcuffed people\": they buy stocks not because they want to, but because they have to because the cash returns are low. Once the stock market starts to rise, they will chase higher prices out of fear of being left behind.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market rally appears to stem from the Federal Reserve's manipulation of capital markets, rather than from good corporate performance or investor optimism. It wasn't until the end of 2020, after the S&P 500 rose 67.9% from its March low and rose 16.3% for the year, that investors' mental state finally caught up with the soaring stock prices.</p><p>Bull markets rarely go through the first phase, and the probability of going through the second phase is also very low. Many investors shifted from deep despair at the end of March of that year to extreme optimism later on.</p><p>For now, this is a good reminder. While the main themes of some historical events do repeat themselves, expecting an accurate repeat of history is a big mistake.</p><p><b>03. Reasons for optimism, super stocks, and new things</b></p><p>In a frenzied bull market, investors can become hysterical. In extreme cases, their thoughts and actions will be out of touch with reality. The premise here is that there must be elements that can both stimulate investors' imaginations and prevent them from thinking carefully.</p><p>Therefore, it is worth noting that some elements will always emerge in a bull market: new developments, new inventions, and reasons to drive stocks higher.</p><p>By definition, a bull market is characterized by prosperity, increased confidence, gullibility, and investors' willingness to pay high prices for assets, all of which later prove to be out of bounds. Historical experience shows that it is crucial to keep these characteristics within reasonable limits. For this reason, the rational or emotional reasons that can stimulate a bull market all come from new things and cannot be explained by historical experience.</p><p>History has fully demonstrated that when markets become bullish, stock valuations are pushed up, and investors begin to embrace new things without hesitation, the consequences are often very painful.</p><p>Everyone knows (or should know) that after a parabolic rise in the stock market, it usually falls by 20% to 50%. However, as I learned in high school English about \"the willing suspension of disbelief,\" these behaviors continue to occur repeatedly among investors.</p><p>Here's another one of my favorite quotes:</p><p>The feeling of ecstasy was little known in the past and now. People have very short memories of financial markets, which leads to the financial crisis being quickly forgotten. And when the same or very similar situation repeats itself, even if it happens within a few years, in the eyes of a young and extremely confident new generation, the crisis will be hailed as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>And major discoveries in the economic field. Among the industries that humanity has ventured into, few have seen past historical experience as meaningless as finance. To some extent, historical experience becomes entirely part of memory, a primal refuge for those who are incapable of appreciating the grand scene of the moment. —John Kenneth Galbraith, A Brief History of Financial Ecstasy, 1990. I have shared this sentence with readers many times over the past 30 years because I think it summarizes some important points well, but I have not previously shared my understanding of the behavior it describes.</p><p>I don't think investors are forgetful. Conversely, knowledge of history and proper caution lie on one side of the scale, while the dream of pursuing wealth lies on the other, and the latter always wins. Reminiscence, caution, realism, and risk aversion will only hinder the realization of the dream of getting rich. Therefore, for this reason, investors always lack appropriate concern when a bull market begins.</p><p>Instead, they often find reasons to exceed historical valuation standards. On October 11, 1987, Anise Wallace in \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>This phenomenon was described in an article titled \"Why This Market Cycle Is No Different\" published in [Journal Name]. At the time, people held optimistic and positive sentiments, seeking to justify the exceptionally high stock prices, but Wallace points out in his article that this idea was untenable:</p><p>John Templeton, a 74-year-old mutual fund manager, once pointed out that the four most dangerous words in investing are \"different this time.\" When the stock market fluctuates wildly, investors always use this reason to rationalize their emotion-driven decisions. In the coming year, many investors may repeat these four words to justify high stock prices. But they should view the stock market rise with a \"I'll pay you back when I have money\" attitude (the check's in the mail makes excuses to delay). No matter what brokers or fund managers say, the bull market will not last forever. As a result, less than a year later, just eight days later, the world experienced \"Black Monday,\" with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting 22.6% in a single day.</p><p>Another explanation for the bull market is that investors believe that certain companies will have a bright future. This applies to the \"Beautiful 50\" growth stocks of the late 1960s; Semiconductor manufacturers in the 1980s; And telecommunications, internet, and e-commerce companies in the late 1990s. People believe that every development can change the world, so past business realities cannot limit investors' imagination and willingness to invest. They really changed the world. Nevertheless, the high valuations that were once considered reasonable did not last.</p><p>In many bull markets, one or more groups I call \"super stocks,\" and their rapid rise has made investors increasingly optimistic. Growing optimism has pushed stock prices to highs, a feature of past market cycles. Through relative value comparisons and a general improvement in investor sentiment, this enthusiasm and rising valuations are further reflected in the valuations of other securities (or all securities).</p><p>Looking back at the previous two years, in 2020-2021, FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google) topped the list of companies that excited investors, demonstrating unprecedented market dominance and scale. FAAMG's stunning performance in 2020 attracted investors' attention and supported the general bullish trend.</p><p>By September 2020 (within six months), these stocks had nearly doubled from their March lows, rising 61% from the beginning of the year. It is worth mentioning that these five stocks are heavily weighted in the S&P 500, so their performance led to a good overall rise in the index, but this distracted attention from the other 495 underperforming stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb43ec1382ac15f7a9090cf792e1236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The huge success of FAAMG has had a generally positive impact on technology stocks, with investor demand surging. As is the case in the investment sector, strong demand has stimulated and increased supply. In this context, a noteworthy barometer is the attitude of unprofitable companies towards IPOs.</p><p>Before the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, there were relatively few IPOs by unprofitable companies, which surged during the bubble period, but the number has since declined again. During the 2020-2021 bull market, unprofitable initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a major rebound as investors were willing to support technology companies' desire to scale and biotechnology companies' spending needs on drug trials.</p><p>If companies with bright prospects provide impetus for a bull market, then emerging things in the market may play a role in fueling it and exacerbating its rise. SPACs (backdoor listings) are a recent typical example. Investors provided blank checks for these newly established companies to conduct acquisitions, allowing them to recover their funds with interest after meeting the following two conditions: \"if the acquisition is not completed within two years, or if the investors do not agree to the proposed acquisition.\"</p><p>This appears to be a \"sure-fire\" deal (the most dangerous word in the world), with the number of SPACs soaring from 10 in 2013 and 59 in 2019 to 248 in 2020 and 613 in 2021. Some companies made huge profits, while in other cases investors recovered their funds, including principal and interest. However, a lack of skepticism about untested innovation, coupled with the driving force of bull market psychology, has led to the creation of too many SPACs, whether by competent or incompetent sponsors, who receive high compensation for completing any acquisition.</p><p>Today, the average selling price of SPACs that have completed acquisitions and exited since 2020 is $5.25, compared to the offering price of $10.00. This is a good example of how new things are not as reliable as investors think—investors are once again paying the price for \"something that will never happen.\"</p><p>Supporters of SPACs argue that these entities are just another way for companies to go public and are not concerned about their potential role. My focus is on how investors readily embrace an untested innovation during a boom.</p><p>Another development regarding innovation is also worth mentioning, demonstrating how \"new things\" contribute to a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets began offering stocks a few years before the outbreak of the epidemic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETFs</a>Commission-free trading of cryptocurrencies, etc. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, this encouraged people to flock to the stock market and start investing in stocks, as casinos and sporting events ceased gambling operations.</p><p></li><li>Millions of people who did not lose their jobs received generous financial subsidies, which meant that many people's disposable income increased during the pandemic. Social networking sites like Reddit, on the other hand, turn investing into a \"quarantine-at-home social activity.\"</p><p></li><li>As a result, a large number of novice retail investors flocked to the stock market, many of whom lacked basic investment experience.</p><p></li><li>Newbies will get excited about idolizing a public figure and claim that \"the stock market will only go up\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, the prices of many technology stocks and \"meme stocks\" (stocks that are heavily invested in by retail investors) have soared.</p><p></li></ul>The last emerging thing worth discussing is cryptocurrencies. For example, supporters of Bitcoin cite its multiple uses and its limited supply relative to potential demand. On the other hand, skeptics point out that Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic value, making it impossible to determine a fair price. Regardless of which side is right, Bitcoin meets some of the characteristics that benefit from a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Bitcoin is relatively new (although it has been around for 14 years, people have only noticed it in the last five years).</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin prices surged, rising from $5,000 in 2020 to a high of $68,000 in 2021.</p><p></li><li>According to Galbrait, this is certainly something that previous generations \"could not appreciate\".</p><p></li><li>In all these respects, this fits perfectly with Galbrait's description of something that is \"enthusiastically embraced by a new, young, and very confident generation as a great innovation in the field of finance.\"</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin has now fallen by more than half from its 2021 high, but thousands of other cryptocurrencies that already exist have seen even greater declines.</p><p></li></ul>The phenomenal performance of FAAMG, technology stocks, SPACs, pooled stocks, and cryptocurrencies in 2020 further fueled this obsession and increased general optimism among investors. It's hard to imagine a full-blown bull market without something unprecedented or unheard of. The belief in \"something new\" and \"something different this time\" is a typical feature of the recurring bull market theme.</p><p><b>04. Compete at the bottom</b></p><p>Another bull market theme across different cycles is the detrimental impact of bull market trends on the quality of investor decision-making. In short, when calm reason is replaced by burning optimism:</p><p><ul><li>Asset prices rise</p><p></li><li>Greed overshadows fear</p><p></li><li>No longer worried about losses, but now worried about missing out.</p><p></li><li>Risk aversion and caution gradually disappear</p><p></li></ul>It must be remembered that it is risk aversion and fear of loss that keep the market safe and rational. These developments usually boost the market, causing caution and rational thinking to disappear, making it a dangerous place.</p><p>I explained in my 2007 memo, Race to the Bottom, that when investors and capital providers have too much money on hand and are too eager to put it to use, they bid too aggressively for securities and lending opportunities. Intense bidding lowers expected returns, increases risk, weakens security structures, and reduces fault tolerance.</p><p><ul><li>Cautious investors stick to their opinions, saying, \"I stick to 8% interest and strong contracts.\"</p><p></li><li>Its competitors responded: \"I accept 7% interest and ask for a smaller contract.\"</p><p></li><li>The most unruly person didn't want to miss this opportunity and said, \"I can accept 6% interest without a contract.\"</p><p></li></ul>This is \"competition at the bottom,\" which is exactly what people often say: \"The worst loans come from the best times.\" This is impossible when people are distressed by recent losses and afraid to experience more losses. After the Federal Reserve took large-scale measures to address the global financial crisis, it ushered in a record economic recovery and stock market rally that lasted for more than a decade, but this was accompanied by:</p><p><ul><li>IPO Wave of Loss-Making Companies</p><p></li><li>Record issuance of subordinated securities (high-risk CCC-rated bonds)</p><p></li><li>Companies in highly volatile sectors (technology and software) issue large amounts of bonds, and people often choose to avoid these sectors during cautious times.</p><p></li><li>Valuation multiples of mergers and acquisitions are rising</p><p></li><li>Risk premium continues to decline</p><p></li></ul>Favorable developments also encourage greater use of leverage. Leverage amplifies gains and losses, but in a bull market, investors are convinced that gains are inevitable and ignore the possibility of losses. In this situation, few people can find a reason not to take on debt, because the interest cost of debt is negligible and can increase the return on success.</p><p>However, increasing debt at high prices late in an upward cycle is not the best way to succeed. When things get bad, leverage becomes unfavorable. When investment banks issue debt at the end of their investment, they get into trouble. Debt \"hanging\" on a bank's balance sheet often becomes a \"canary in a coal mine,\" hinting at impending danger.</p><p>Since I believe in the enduring investment maxim, it is quite appropriate to quote what I consider to be the greatest investor behavior maxim in this regard: \"What the wise begin, what the foolish end.\" People who buy stocks during the first phase of a bull market, due to widespread pessimism (such as during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020), have the potential to reap substantial rewards with minimal risk, with the main prerequisites being capital and courage.</p><p>But as the bull market heats up, substantial returns encourage optimism among investors. At this time, the characteristics of earning returns are desire, gullibility, and risk-taking. In the third phase of the bull market, new entrants bought heavily, keeping the stock market at a high level. Prudence, selectivity, and discipline disappear when they are needed most.</p><p>It is particularly noteworthy that investors who are optimistic and reward themselves based on their risk tolerance typically no longer identify investment opportunities. Investors not only believe that some \"new things\" will definitely succeed, but they ultimately conclude that the future of the sector is bright, so there is no need to differentiate anymore.</p><p>For the reasons mentioned above, \"bull market mentality\" is not a positive term. It implies unwary behavior and a high risk tolerance, and investors should be worried, not encouraged. As Warren Buffett said, \"The less careful others are in handling their own affairs, the more careful we must be in handling our own affairs.\" Investors must know when bull sentiment prevails and maintain the necessary caution.</p><p><b>05. Pendulum effect</b></p><p>A bull market doesn't just appear out of thin air. The reason why winners in every bull market become winners is simple: there are some facts behind their profits. However, the bull markets I mentioned above often inflate stock values and push stock prices to overly high and therefore vulnerable levels. Furthermore, upward fluctuations will not last forever.</p><p>I wrote in On the Couch (January 2016): “In the real world, things usually swing back and forth between ‘pretty good’ and ‘not too hot.’ But in the investment world, people’s expectations often shift from ‘hopeful’ to ‘desperate.’” In the market, taking things too seriously is one of the key characteristics of investor behavior. During a bull market, investors believe that difficult, unlikely, and unprecedented things will definitely work.</p><p>However, during a less prosperous period, positive economic news and \"better-than-expected results\" failed to stimulate buying, and rising stock prices no longer made investors with lower holdings regret it. Therefore, we see that people are no longer willing to temporarily put aside their doubts, and their mindset quickly turns negative.</p><p>Investors can interpret almost any news story, whether it is positive or negative, depending on the way it is reported and their mood; this is the key. (The following cartoon, one of my all-time favorites, was published decades ago. Look at the depth of those antennas and TV cabinets, but obviously, the text description is the only thing relevant to the topic of the moment.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b3a74156c69f713bc1092a9a6544f22\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"On Wall Street today, news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that depressed the stock market. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, amid fears that the overheated economy would lead to another rate hike, the stock market eventually fell.\"</p><p>Reversing this prevailing saying reflects the process I mentioned earlier: \"from hope to despair.\" While there is some truth to the view that a bull market will occur, when things go smoothly, investors take it for granted. However, when some flaws in this view were exposed, people thought it was completely wrong.</p><p>In the happy days (a year ago), tech bulls said, \"You have to buy growth stocks because their returns are likely to grow over the next few decades.\" But now, after a round of crashes, we hear instead, \"Investing based on future potential is too risky. You have to hold value stocks because you can determine their present value and the pricing is more reasonable.\"</p><p>Similarly, during the economic boom, investors who participated in the IPOs of loss-making companies said, \"There's nothing wrong with companies reporting losses; it makes sense for them to spend money to expand.\" But the narrative is different now, with many saying, \"Who would invest in unprofitable companies? They just burn money.\"</p><p>People who haven't spent much time observing the market might think that asset prices depend entirely on fundamentals, but that's not the case. Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals. Therefore, changes in asset prices depend on changes in fundamentals and/or how people perceive those changes.</p><p>A company's fundamentals are theoretically subject to so-called \"analysis,\" and possibly even predictions. On the other hand, views on fundamentals are subjective, unaffected by analysis or forecasting, and change more rapidly and drastically.</p><p>Some proverbs also reflect this view:</p><p><ul><li>The balloon deflates much faster than it inflates.</p><p></li><li>Things happen later than you think, but they happen much faster than you think.</p><p></li></ul>As for the latter, in my experience, we often see positive or negative fundamentals appear simultaneously over a period of time, while stock prices do not react. But then a tipping point was reached – both fundamentally and psychologically – all of which were suddenly reflected in prices, sometimes even overly so.</p><p><b>06. What will happen next?</b></p><p>A bull market does not treat all industries equally. As I discussed earlier, in a bull market, optimism is most strongly concentrated in a certain type of stock, such as \"new things\" or \"super stocks\". These stocks saw the largest gains, becoming a symbol of the bull market during this period and attracting further buying. The media paid the most attention to these types of stocks, which prolonged the whole process. FAAMG and other technology stocks are the best examples of this phenomenon during 2020-2021.</p><p>The reason is self-evident, but I still want to say that investors who hold a large number of stocks that lead the bull market are doing very well. Some fund managers are smart enough or lucky enough to focus on these stocks, so they achieve the highest returns, optimism prevails, and they also appear on the front pages of newspapers and cable television programs. In the past, I've said that our industry is full of people who are known for making the right decisions consistently. For fund managers who are smart enough or lucky enough to increase their holdings in sectors that lead the bull market, famous people may double their holdings.</p><p>However, stocks that rise the most in rising years often fall the most in falling years. The maxims applicable here come from the real world, but this does not diminish their relevance: \"Xiao He succeeded, Xiao He also failed,\" \"Every rise has its fall,\" and \"The higher you climb, the harder you fall.\"</p><p>The first tech fund grew 157% in 2020, going from obscurity to notoriety. But it fell 23% in 2021 and another 57% so far in 2022. A $100 investment at the end of 2019 was worth $257 a year later, but has now fallen to $85. Another less volatile tech fund rose 48% in 2020, but has since fallen 48%. Unfortunately, the 48% increase and 48% decrease cannot offset each other; in fact, for every $100 invested, there is a net decrease of $22. The third technology fund rose by a staggering 291% in its first year, but fell by 21%, 60%, and 61% in the following three years. Over the course of four years, the initial $100 investment ended up being worth only $43, equivalent to an 89% drop from the incredible high at the end of the first year. Wait a minute, the current boom/bust period hasn't lasted four years. No, I'm quoting the results from 1999-2002, when the last tech bubble burst. I mention them only to remind you that the current performance is a reenactment of the situation. I mentioned Robinhood, the pioneer of commission-free trading, earlier. It is a microcosm of cryptocurrency stocks during the 2020-2021 bull market. Robinhood went public in July 2021 at $38 per share, and its share price soared to $85 a week later. Today, the stock price is only $10, and it has fallen 88% from its high in less than a year.</p><p>But the average stock performance isn't actually that bad, right? The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell \"only\" 27.4% in 2022. One characteristic of this \"bull market\" is that the largest constituent stocks perform best, thus boosting the index. Consider what this means for the rest of the constituent stocks; 22% of the Nasdaq stocks fell by at least 50%. (Data here and below is as of May 20)</p><p>Here are some of the declines in well-known technology, cryptocurrency, and innovation stocks that I randomly selected. Perhaps, when some of the stocks here were at their peak, you felt guilty for not buying them:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffeced6fe46e2035410c8d0d198ea4da\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"956\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Let's say you still believe that stock prices are determined by a consensus among smart investors based on fundamentals. If that's the case, then why have all these stocks fallen so sharply? Do you really believe that the value of these companies has evaporated by more than half on average in the past few months? This question raises some other questions that I often think about.</p><p>When the stock market experiences sharp fluctuations, the Bitcoin often moves in the same direction. Is there some fundamental reason behind this that leads to a correlation between the two trends? The same applies to market connections between countries: when the Japanese stock market opens sharply lower, European and American stock markets tend to follow suit. Sometimes, it seems that the US stock market is leading, while the Japanese stock market is simultaneously declining. Are the links between the fundamentals of these countries sufficient to cause them to link up?</p><p>My answer to all these questions is usually \"no\". The common ground is not fundamentals, but psychological factors, all of which are similarly affected when the latter undergoes significant changes.</p><p><b>07. Experience</b></p><p>As with investment students, the most important thing is not what happens in a specific time period, but what we can learn from those events. We can learn a lot from the trends of 2020-2021, which are consistent with those of previous cycles. In a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Optimism is built on things that are done very well.</p><p></li><li>The impact is most pronounced when stock prices rise from a base that is both psychologically and price-wise depressed.</p><p></li><li>Bull market psychology does not involve anxiety and has a high level of risk tolerance, thus accompanied by extremely aggressive behavior. Taking risks can be rewarded, while the need for hard work and diligence is overlooked.</p><p></li><li>High returns make people more confident that new things, low-probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to conclude that \"there are no stocks that are too expensive.\"</p><p></li><li>These effects will eventually cool down after they (and prices) reach unsustainable levels.</p><p></li><li>Markets at high levels are vulnerable to external events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p></li><li>The assets that rose the most, and the investors who increased their holdings, often experienced painful reversals.</p><p></li></ul>Throughout my career, I have witnessed such things happen many times, and none of them were entirely caused by fundamentals. Instead, psychological factors are the main reason, and the way the mind works is unlikely to change. This is why I firmly believe that as long as humans are involved in the investment process, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>Moreover, please note that the sharp fluctuations in the market are largely driven by psychological factors, and it is obvious that the market trend can only be predicted when prices are extremely high or extremely low, if possible.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks' latest memo: \"The Rhythm of the Bull Market\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks' latest memo: \"The Rhythm of the Bull Market\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 20:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>For a century, the stock market has experienced ups and downs, a cycle that has never stopped, with countless cycles streaking across the historical sky like brilliant shooting stars.</p><p>Why do cycles exist, and why do investors invest so much energy in the ongoing struggle against market volatility? Because their investment psychology is constantly influencing market trends. As long as humans are involved in investing, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks<b>This latest memo, titled \"Bull Market Rhymes,\" analyzes the patterns of Bull Market cycles and points out that investor behavior can help determine the current stage and allow investors to exit the Market before it collapses.</b></p><p>Driven by the pursuit of their dreams of wealth, investors may lack appropriate fear during a bull market frenzy, and the emergence of this frenzy foreshadows the approach of risk.</p><p>Max said,<b>Investors must know when bull sentiment prevails and maintain the necessary caution. \"Bull market mentality\" is not a positive term; it implies careless behavior and a high risk tolerance. Investors should be worried, not encouraged.</b>：</p><p>It is risk aversion and fear of loss that keep the market safe and rational. Max pointed out<b>Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals.</b>。 High returns in a bull market make people more confident that new things, low-probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to conclude that \"there are no stocks that are too expensive.\" At this time, new entrants bought heavily, and the stock market remained at a high level. Prudence, selectivity, and discipline disappear when they are needed most.</p><p>Max also cited the current stock market trend as an example:</p><p>On Wall Street today, news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that depressed the stock market. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid fears that an overheated economy would lead to another rate hike. Max stated frankly that he believes in enduring investment maxims, therefore<b>The greatest investor behavior should be \"what the wise begin and what the foolish end.\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The following is the full text of the memorandum:</p><p>Although I use a lot of maxims and quotes in my memos, only a few make it onto my top list. One of my favorites is Mark Twain's famous quote:</p><p>History will not repeat itself, but it will repeat itself in a similar rhythm. It is known that Mark Twain said the first four words in 1874, but there is no definitive evidence that he ever said the latter.</p><p>Over the years, many people have said similar things. In 1965, psychoanalyst Theodor Reik expressed the same view in an article entitled \"Unreachable\". He himself added a few more words, which I think he put best:</p><p>The cycle is repeated, with ups and downs, but the process is basically the same and changes very little. Some say that history will repeat itself, but this may not be entirely accurate; history simply repeats itself in a similar rhythm. Past investment events will not repeat themselves, but the main theme of the events will indeed reappear, especially those related to investment behavior, which is exactly what I study.</p><p>Over the past two years, the cycle described by Reik has experienced ups and downs, attracting market attention. What particularly struck me was the reappearance of typical styles in investment behavior, which will be the subject of this memo.</p><p>Let me state in advance that this memorandum cannot predict the potential direction of the market. For example, the market's bullish behavior began when it bottomed out in March 2020, but since then, serious problems have occurred both internally (inflation) and externally (the Russia-Ukraine conflict), and significant adjustments have taken place. No one, including myself, can know what impact these things will have on the future.</p><p>My purpose in writing this memo is simply to place recent events in historical context and to discover some implicit lessons from them. This is crucial because we must go back 22 years, before the bursting of the technology, media, and telecommunications bubble in 2000, and look at the beginning of the real bull market and the end of the resulting bear market. Many readers, because they started investing late, did not experience the events at the time.</p><p>You might ask, \"What were market returns like before the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic caused the market to collapse?\"</p><p>In my view, prior to these two crises, the market rose gradually, not along a parabolic path. The rise was not driven by fanaticism, stock prices were not pushed to crazy heights, and high stock prices were not the cause of any crisis. The 2008-2009 crisis stemmed from the real estate market and the emergence of subprime mortgage securitization, while the 2020 collapse was due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's shutdown of the economy to control the pandemic.</p><p>Regarding the \"true bull market\" mentioned earlier, my definition of it does not come from Investopedia:</p><p><ul><li>The price of an asset or security in a financial market rises continuously over a period of time.</p><p></li><li>The market typically sees a 20% increase after a 20% drop in stock price.</p><p></li></ul>The first definition is too bland and fails to capture the core emotions of investors during a bull market. The second definition provides a false precision; a bull market should not be defined by a percentage change in price. For me, it's best described in terms of how it feels, the investor psychology behind it, and the investment behavior that results.</p><p>(I started investing before the numerical standards for bull and bear markets were developed, and I think such standards are meaningless. Does it really matter if the S&P 500 falls 19.9% or 20.1%? I still prefer the old-fashioned definition of a bear market—nerve-racking.)</p><p><b>01. Transition and Correction</b></p><p>My second book is \"Cycle\" Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. As we all know, I am a student of cycles and a believer in cycles. Over the years, as an investor, I have gone through several important cycles (and received education).</p><p>I believe that understanding our position in the market cycle can tell us what will happen next. But when I was two-thirds of the way through the book, I suddenly thought of a question I had never considered before: Why do cycles exist?</p><p>For example, the S&P 500 index was created in 1957, and its average annual return over the past 65 years has been slightly higher than 10%. Why can't its return be 10% every year? To add to the question I raised in my July 2004 memo, \"The Doctrine of the Mean,\" why did the S&P 500 only return between 8% and 12% six times during this period, and why did it perform so far below that level 90% of the time?</p><p>After some thought, I think it can be explained as follows: there are \"excesses and corrections\" in the market.</p><p>If you compare the stock market to a machine, the idea that you want it to run consistently and steadily over time is reasonable. However, I believe that the significant influence of investors' psychological state on their decision-making can largely explain the reasons for market volatility.</p><p>When investors start bullish, they tend to draw the following conclusions.</p><p>First, everything will always rise; Secondly, no matter how much they pay for an asset, others will buy it from them at a higher price (i.e., the \"bigger fool\" theory) because they are very optimistic about the market's height:</p><p><ul><li>The stock price will rise faster than the company's profit growth, and the increase will be much higher than the fair value (excess increase).</p><p></li><li>After that, the investment environment began to disappoint, the foolish move of offering high prices became prominent, and the stock price would fall to its fair value (corrected), and then fall further below that price level.</p><p></li><li>A decline in stock prices can further trigger pessimism in the market, causing the stock price to fall far below its intrinsic value (excessive decline).</p><p></li><li>Ultimately, buying at the bottom will help the sluggish stock price rebound to its fair value (revised).</p><p></li></ul>Excessive gains can lead to above-average returns for a period of time, while excessive declines can also lead to below-average returns for a period of time. Of course, there may be other factors at play, but I think \"excess and correction\" can explain most of the situation. During 2020-2021, we saw some excessive gains in the stock market, and now we see them being corrected.</p><p><b>02. Bull Market Psychology</b></p><p>In a bull market, a favorable environment can lead to a rise in stock prices and boost investor confidence. This investment confidence can trigger aggressive operations, which in turn will further trigger a rise in stock prices. This will lead to a more optimistic investment attitude and continued risk-taking.</p><p>This upward spiral is the essence of a bull market, and its upward process seems unstoppable.</p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, we witnessed a typical asset price collapse. The S&P 500 first hit a record high of 3,386 points on February 19, 2020, then plummeted by a third in just 34 days, falling to 2,237 points on March 23. However, thanks to the joint efforts of various forces, the stock price rose sharply again:</p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve lowered Federal Funds rate to near zero and, together with the Treasury Department, announced large-scale economic stimulus measures.</p><p></li><li>These actions have convinced investors that state institutions will stop at nothing to stabilize the economy.</p><p></li><li>Interest rate cuts have significantly reduced the expected returns on investments, affecting their relative attractiveness.</p><p></li><li>These factors combine to force investors to begin accepting risks that arise in the short term.</p><p></li><li>Asset prices subsequently rose: by the end of August of that year, the S&P 500 had recovered all its losses and surpassed its February high.</p><p></li><li>FAAMG (Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Software stocks and other technology stocks rose sharply, driving the market higher.</p><p></li><li>Ultimately, investors concluded that they could expect the stock market to continue rising, which aligned with their usual mindset during previous bull markets.</p><p></li></ul>As mentioned above, the most important thing in bull market psychology is that most people believe that rising stock prices are a positive sign of future market conditions, and many people have begun to become optimistic. Only a few people would suspect that this market rally is excessive, as its returns depend on future expectations, so the rise will not last, and the market will reverse.</p><p>This reminds me of another of my favorite maxims, one I first learned about 50 years ago: \"The three stages of a bull market\":</p><p>The first stage, when some visionaries began to bet that a bull market might be coming;</p><p>The second stage is when most investors realize that a bull market is happening;</p><p>The third stage is when everyone believes the bull market will last forever.</p><p>Interestingly, although the stock market quickly transformed from a weak bottom in March 2020 to a boom in May under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, skepticism was the most common investor mentality I encountered during this period. The questions they asked me most often were:</p><p>With the environment so bad, the pandemic raging, and the economy stagnating, how can the stock market still rise? It was hard to find optimists back then. Many investors become what my late father-in-law described as \"handcuffed people\": they buy stocks not because they want to, but because they have to because the cash returns are low. Once the stock market starts to rise, they will chase higher prices out of fear of being left behind.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market rally appears to stem from the Federal Reserve's manipulation of capital markets, rather than from good corporate performance or investor optimism. It wasn't until the end of 2020, after the S&P 500 rose 67.9% from its March low and rose 16.3% for the year, that investors' mental state finally caught up with the soaring stock prices.</p><p>Bull markets rarely go through the first phase, and the probability of going through the second phase is also very low. Many investors shifted from deep despair at the end of March of that year to extreme optimism later on.</p><p>For now, this is a good reminder. While the main themes of some historical events do repeat themselves, expecting an accurate repeat of history is a big mistake.</p><p><b>03. Reasons for optimism, super stocks, and new things</b></p><p>In a frenzied bull market, investors can become hysterical. In extreme cases, their thoughts and actions will be out of touch with reality. The premise here is that there must be elements that can both stimulate investors' imaginations and prevent them from thinking carefully.</p><p>Therefore, it is worth noting that some elements will always emerge in a bull market: new developments, new inventions, and reasons to drive stocks higher.</p><p>By definition, a bull market is characterized by prosperity, increased confidence, gullibility, and investors' willingness to pay high prices for assets, all of which later prove to be out of bounds. Historical experience shows that it is crucial to keep these characteristics within reasonable limits. For this reason, the rational or emotional reasons that can stimulate a bull market all come from new things and cannot be explained by historical experience.</p><p>History has fully demonstrated that when markets become bullish, stock valuations are pushed up, and investors begin to embrace new things without hesitation, the consequences are often very painful.</p><p>Everyone knows (or should know) that after a parabolic rise in the stock market, it usually falls by 20% to 50%. However, as I learned in high school English about \"the willing suspension of disbelief,\" these behaviors continue to occur repeatedly among investors.</p><p>Here's another one of my favorite quotes:</p><p>The feeling of ecstasy was little known in the past and now. People have very short memories of financial markets, which leads to the financial crisis being quickly forgotten. And when the same or very similar situation repeats itself, even if it happens within a few years, in the eyes of a young and extremely confident new generation, the crisis will be hailed as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>And major discoveries in the economic field. Among the industries that humanity has ventured into, few have seen past historical experience as meaningless as finance. To some extent, historical experience becomes entirely part of memory, a primal refuge for those who are incapable of appreciating the grand scene of the moment. —John Kenneth Galbraith, A Brief History of Financial Ecstasy, 1990. I have shared this sentence with readers many times over the past 30 years because I think it summarizes some important points well, but I have not previously shared my understanding of the behavior it describes.</p><p>I don't think investors are forgetful. Conversely, knowledge of history and proper caution lie on one side of the scale, while the dream of pursuing wealth lies on the other, and the latter always wins. Reminiscence, caution, realism, and risk aversion will only hinder the realization of the dream of getting rich. Therefore, for this reason, investors always lack appropriate concern when a bull market begins.</p><p>Instead, they often find reasons to exceed historical valuation standards. On October 11, 1987, Anise Wallace in \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>This phenomenon was described in an article titled \"Why This Market Cycle Is No Different\" published in [Journal Name]. At the time, people held optimistic and positive sentiments, seeking to justify the exceptionally high stock prices, but Wallace points out in his article that this idea was untenable:</p><p>John Templeton, a 74-year-old mutual fund manager, once pointed out that the four most dangerous words in investing are \"different this time.\" When the stock market fluctuates wildly, investors always use this reason to rationalize their emotion-driven decisions. In the coming year, many investors may repeat these four words to justify high stock prices. But they should view the stock market rise with a \"I'll pay you back when I have money\" attitude (the check's in the mail makes excuses to delay). No matter what brokers or fund managers say, the bull market will not last forever. As a result, less than a year later, just eight days later, the world experienced \"Black Monday,\" with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting 22.6% in a single day.</p><p>Another explanation for the bull market is that investors believe that certain companies will have a bright future. This applies to the \"Beautiful 50\" growth stocks of the late 1960s; Semiconductor manufacturers in the 1980s; And telecommunications, internet, and e-commerce companies in the late 1990s. People believe that every development can change the world, so past business realities cannot limit investors' imagination and willingness to invest. They really changed the world. Nevertheless, the high valuations that were once considered reasonable did not last.</p><p>In many bull markets, one or more groups I call \"super stocks,\" and their rapid rise has made investors increasingly optimistic. Growing optimism has pushed stock prices to highs, a feature of past market cycles. Through relative value comparisons and a general improvement in investor sentiment, this enthusiasm and rising valuations are further reflected in the valuations of other securities (or all securities).</p><p>Looking back at the previous two years, in 2020-2021, FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google) topped the list of companies that excited investors, demonstrating unprecedented market dominance and scale. FAAMG's stunning performance in 2020 attracted investors' attention and supported the general bullish trend.</p><p>By September 2020 (within six months), these stocks had nearly doubled from their March lows, rising 61% from the beginning of the year. It is worth mentioning that these five stocks are heavily weighted in the S&P 500, so their performance led to a good overall rise in the index, but this distracted attention from the other 495 underperforming stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb43ec1382ac15f7a9090cf792e1236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The huge success of FAAMG has had a generally positive impact on technology stocks, with investor demand surging. As is the case in the investment sector, strong demand has stimulated and increased supply. In this context, a noteworthy barometer is the attitude of unprofitable companies towards IPOs.</p><p>Before the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, there were relatively few IPOs by unprofitable companies, which surged during the bubble period, but the number has since declined again. During the 2020-2021 bull market, unprofitable initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a major rebound as investors were willing to support technology companies' desire to scale and biotechnology companies' spending needs on drug trials.</p><p>If companies with bright prospects provide impetus for a bull market, then emerging things in the market may play a role in fueling it and exacerbating its rise. SPACs (backdoor listings) are a recent typical example. Investors provided blank checks for these newly established companies to conduct acquisitions, allowing them to recover their funds with interest after meeting the following two conditions: \"if the acquisition is not completed within two years, or if the investors do not agree to the proposed acquisition.\"</p><p>This appears to be a \"sure-fire\" deal (the most dangerous word in the world), with the number of SPACs soaring from 10 in 2013 and 59 in 2019 to 248 in 2020 and 613 in 2021. Some companies made huge profits, while in other cases investors recovered their funds, including principal and interest. However, a lack of skepticism about untested innovation, coupled with the driving force of bull market psychology, has led to the creation of too many SPACs, whether by competent or incompetent sponsors, who receive high compensation for completing any acquisition.</p><p>Today, the average selling price of SPACs that have completed acquisitions and exited since 2020 is $5.25, compared to the offering price of $10.00. This is a good example of how new things are not as reliable as investors think—investors are once again paying the price for \"something that will never happen.\"</p><p>Supporters of SPACs argue that these entities are just another way for companies to go public and are not concerned about their potential role. My focus is on how investors readily embrace an untested innovation during a boom.</p><p>Another development regarding innovation is also worth mentioning, demonstrating how \"new things\" contribute to a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets began offering stocks a few years before the outbreak of the epidemic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETFs</a>Commission-free trading of cryptocurrencies, etc. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, this encouraged people to flock to the stock market and start investing in stocks, as casinos and sporting events ceased gambling operations.</p><p></li><li>Millions of people who did not lose their jobs received generous financial subsidies, which meant that many people's disposable income increased during the pandemic. Social networking sites like Reddit, on the other hand, turn investing into a \"quarantine-at-home social activity.\"</p><p></li><li>As a result, a large number of novice retail investors flocked to the stock market, many of whom lacked basic investment experience.</p><p></li><li>Newbies will get excited about idolizing a public figure and claim that \"the stock market will only go up\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, the prices of many technology stocks and \"meme stocks\" (stocks that are heavily invested in by retail investors) have soared.</p><p></li></ul>The last emerging thing worth discussing is cryptocurrencies. For example, supporters of Bitcoin cite its multiple uses and its limited supply relative to potential demand. On the other hand, skeptics point out that Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic value, making it impossible to determine a fair price. Regardless of which side is right, Bitcoin meets some of the characteristics that benefit from a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Bitcoin is relatively new (although it has been around for 14 years, people have only noticed it in the last five years).</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin prices surged, rising from $5,000 in 2020 to a high of $68,000 in 2021.</p><p></li><li>According to Galbrait, this is certainly something that previous generations \"could not appreciate\".</p><p></li><li>In all these respects, this fits perfectly with Galbrait's description of something that is \"enthusiastically embraced by a new, young, and very confident generation as a great innovation in the field of finance.\"</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin has now fallen by more than half from its 2021 high, but thousands of other cryptocurrencies that already exist have seen even greater declines.</p><p></li></ul>The phenomenal performance of FAAMG, technology stocks, SPACs, pooled stocks, and cryptocurrencies in 2020 further fueled this obsession and increased general optimism among investors. It's hard to imagine a full-blown bull market without something unprecedented or unheard of. The belief in \"something new\" and \"something different this time\" is a typical feature of the recurring bull market theme.</p><p><b>04. Compete at the bottom</b></p><p>Another bull market theme across different cycles is the detrimental impact of bull market trends on the quality of investor decision-making. In short, when calm reason is replaced by burning optimism:</p><p><ul><li>Asset prices rise</p><p></li><li>Greed overshadows fear</p><p></li><li>No longer worried about losses, but now worried about missing out.</p><p></li><li>Risk aversion and caution gradually disappear</p><p></li></ul>It must be remembered that it is risk aversion and fear of loss that keep the market safe and rational. These developments usually boost the market, causing caution and rational thinking to disappear, making it a dangerous place.</p><p>I explained in my 2007 memo, Race to the Bottom, that when investors and capital providers have too much money on hand and are too eager to put it to use, they bid too aggressively for securities and lending opportunities. Intense bidding lowers expected returns, increases risk, weakens security structures, and reduces fault tolerance.</p><p><ul><li>Cautious investors stick to their opinions, saying, \"I stick to 8% interest and strong contracts.\"</p><p></li><li>Its competitors responded: \"I accept 7% interest and ask for a smaller contract.\"</p><p></li><li>The most unruly person didn't want to miss this opportunity and said, \"I can accept 6% interest without a contract.\"</p><p></li></ul>This is \"competition at the bottom,\" which is exactly what people often say: \"The worst loans come from the best times.\" This is impossible when people are distressed by recent losses and afraid to experience more losses. After the Federal Reserve took large-scale measures to address the global financial crisis, it ushered in a record economic recovery and stock market rally that lasted for more than a decade, but this was accompanied by:</p><p><ul><li>IPO Wave of Loss-Making Companies</p><p></li><li>Record issuance of subordinated securities (high-risk CCC-rated bonds)</p><p></li><li>Companies in highly volatile sectors (technology and software) issue large amounts of bonds, and people often choose to avoid these sectors during cautious times.</p><p></li><li>Valuation multiples of mergers and acquisitions are rising</p><p></li><li>Risk premium continues to decline</p><p></li></ul>Favorable developments also encourage greater use of leverage. Leverage amplifies gains and losses, but in a bull market, investors are convinced that gains are inevitable and ignore the possibility of losses. In this situation, few people can find a reason not to take on debt, because the interest cost of debt is negligible and can increase the return on success.</p><p>However, increasing debt at high prices late in an upward cycle is not the best way to succeed. When things get bad, leverage becomes unfavorable. When investment banks issue debt at the end of their investment, they get into trouble. Debt \"hanging\" on a bank's balance sheet often becomes a \"canary in a coal mine,\" hinting at impending danger.</p><p>Since I believe in the enduring investment maxim, it is quite appropriate to quote what I consider to be the greatest investor behavior maxim in this regard: \"What the wise begin, what the foolish end.\" People who buy stocks during the first phase of a bull market, due to widespread pessimism (such as during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020), have the potential to reap substantial rewards with minimal risk, with the main prerequisites being capital and courage.</p><p>But as the bull market heats up, substantial returns encourage optimism among investors. At this time, the characteristics of earning returns are desire, gullibility, and risk-taking. In the third phase of the bull market, new entrants bought heavily, keeping the stock market at a high level. Prudence, selectivity, and discipline disappear when they are needed most.</p><p>It is particularly noteworthy that investors who are optimistic and reward themselves based on their risk tolerance typically no longer identify investment opportunities. Investors not only believe that some \"new things\" will definitely succeed, but they ultimately conclude that the future of the sector is bright, so there is no need to differentiate anymore.</p><p>For the reasons mentioned above, \"bull market mentality\" is not a positive term. It implies unwary behavior and a high risk tolerance, and investors should be worried, not encouraged. As Warren Buffett said, \"The less careful others are in handling their own affairs, the more careful we must be in handling our own affairs.\" Investors must know when bull sentiment prevails and maintain the necessary caution.</p><p><b>05. Pendulum effect</b></p><p>A bull market doesn't just appear out of thin air. The reason why winners in every bull market become winners is simple: there are some facts behind their profits. However, the bull markets I mentioned above often inflate stock values and push stock prices to overly high and therefore vulnerable levels. Furthermore, upward fluctuations will not last forever.</p><p>I wrote in On the Couch (January 2016): “In the real world, things usually swing back and forth between ‘pretty good’ and ‘not too hot.’ But in the investment world, people’s expectations often shift from ‘hopeful’ to ‘desperate.’” In the market, taking things too seriously is one of the key characteristics of investor behavior. During a bull market, investors believe that difficult, unlikely, and unprecedented things will definitely work.</p><p>However, during a less prosperous period, positive economic news and \"better-than-expected results\" failed to stimulate buying, and rising stock prices no longer made investors with lower holdings regret it. Therefore, we see that people are no longer willing to temporarily put aside their doubts, and their mindset quickly turns negative.</p><p>Investors can interpret almost any news story, whether it is positive or negative, depending on the way it is reported and their mood; this is the key. (The following cartoon, one of my all-time favorites, was published decades ago. Look at the depth of those antennas and TV cabinets, but obviously, the text description is the only thing relevant to the topic of the moment.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b3a74156c69f713bc1092a9a6544f22\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"On Wall Street today, news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that depressed the stock market. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, amid fears that the overheated economy would lead to another rate hike, the stock market eventually fell.\"</p><p>Reversing this prevailing saying reflects the process I mentioned earlier: \"from hope to despair.\" While there is some truth to the view that a bull market will occur, when things go smoothly, investors take it for granted. However, when some flaws in this view were exposed, people thought it was completely wrong.</p><p>In the happy days (a year ago), tech bulls said, \"You have to buy growth stocks because their returns are likely to grow over the next few decades.\" But now, after a round of crashes, we hear instead, \"Investing based on future potential is too risky. You have to hold value stocks because you can determine their present value and the pricing is more reasonable.\"</p><p>Similarly, during the economic boom, investors who participated in the IPOs of loss-making companies said, \"There's nothing wrong with companies reporting losses; it makes sense for them to spend money to expand.\" But the narrative is different now, with many saying, \"Who would invest in unprofitable companies? They just burn money.\"</p><p>People who haven't spent much time observing the market might think that asset prices depend entirely on fundamentals, but that's not the case. Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals. Therefore, changes in asset prices depend on changes in fundamentals and/or how people perceive those changes.</p><p>A company's fundamentals are theoretically subject to so-called \"analysis,\" and possibly even predictions. On the other hand, views on fundamentals are subjective, unaffected by analysis or forecasting, and change more rapidly and drastically.</p><p>Some proverbs also reflect this view:</p><p><ul><li>The balloon deflates much faster than it inflates.</p><p></li><li>Things happen later than you think, but they happen much faster than you think.</p><p></li></ul>As for the latter, in my experience, we often see positive or negative fundamentals appear simultaneously over a period of time, while stock prices do not react. But then a tipping point was reached – both fundamentally and psychologically – all of which were suddenly reflected in prices, sometimes even overly so.</p><p><b>06. What will happen next?</b></p><p>A bull market does not treat all industries equally. As I discussed earlier, in a bull market, optimism is most strongly concentrated in a certain type of stock, such as \"new things\" or \"super stocks\". These stocks saw the largest gains, becoming a symbol of the bull market during this period and attracting further buying. The media paid the most attention to these types of stocks, which prolonged the whole process. FAAMG and other technology stocks are the best examples of this phenomenon during 2020-2021.</p><p>The reason is self-evident, but I still want to say that investors who hold a large number of stocks that lead the bull market are doing very well. Some fund managers are smart enough or lucky enough to focus on these stocks, so they achieve the highest returns, optimism prevails, and they also appear on the front pages of newspapers and cable television programs. In the past, I've said that our industry is full of people who are known for making the right decisions consistently. For fund managers who are smart enough or lucky enough to increase their holdings in sectors that lead the bull market, famous people may double their holdings.</p><p>However, stocks that rise the most in rising years often fall the most in falling years. The maxims applicable here come from the real world, but this does not diminish their relevance: \"Xiao He succeeded, Xiao He also failed,\" \"Every rise has its fall,\" and \"The higher you climb, the harder you fall.\"</p><p>The first tech fund grew 157% in 2020, going from obscurity to notoriety. But it fell 23% in 2021 and another 57% so far in 2022. A $100 investment at the end of 2019 was worth $257 a year later, but has now fallen to $85. Another less volatile tech fund rose 48% in 2020, but has since fallen 48%. Unfortunately, the 48% increase and 48% decrease cannot offset each other; in fact, for every $100 invested, there is a net decrease of $22. The third technology fund rose by a staggering 291% in its first year, but fell by 21%, 60%, and 61% in the following three years. Over the course of four years, the initial $100 investment ended up being worth only $43, equivalent to an 89% drop from the incredible high at the end of the first year. Wait a minute, the current boom/bust period hasn't lasted four years. No, I'm quoting the results from 1999-2002, when the last tech bubble burst. I mention them only to remind you that the current performance is a reenactment of the situation. I mentioned Robinhood, the pioneer of commission-free trading, earlier. It is a microcosm of cryptocurrency stocks during the 2020-2021 bull market. Robinhood went public in July 2021 at $38 per share, and its share price soared to $85 a week later. Today, the stock price is only $10, and it has fallen 88% from its high in less than a year.</p><p>But the average stock performance isn't actually that bad, right? The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell \"only\" 27.4% in 2022. One characteristic of this \"bull market\" is that the largest constituent stocks perform best, thus boosting the index. Consider what this means for the rest of the constituent stocks; 22% of the Nasdaq stocks fell by at least 50%. (Data here and below is as of May 20)</p><p>Here are some of the declines in well-known technology, cryptocurrency, and innovation stocks that I randomly selected. Perhaps, when some of the stocks here were at their peak, you felt guilty for not buying them:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffeced6fe46e2035410c8d0d198ea4da\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"956\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Let's say you still believe that stock prices are determined by a consensus among smart investors based on fundamentals. If that's the case, then why have all these stocks fallen so sharply? Do you really believe that the value of these companies has evaporated by more than half on average in the past few months? This question raises some other questions that I often think about.</p><p>When the stock market experiences sharp fluctuations, the Bitcoin often moves in the same direction. Is there some fundamental reason behind this that leads to a correlation between the two trends? The same applies to market connections between countries: when the Japanese stock market opens sharply lower, European and American stock markets tend to follow suit. Sometimes, it seems that the US stock market is leading, while the Japanese stock market is simultaneously declining. Are the links between the fundamentals of these countries sufficient to cause them to link up?</p><p>My answer to all these questions is usually \"no\". The common ground is not fundamentals, but psychological factors, all of which are similarly affected when the latter undergoes significant changes.</p><p><b>07. Experience</b></p><p>As with investment students, the most important thing is not what happens in a specific time period, but what we can learn from those events. We can learn a lot from the trends of 2020-2021, which are consistent with those of previous cycles. In a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Optimism is built on things that are done very well.</p><p></li><li>The impact is most pronounced when stock prices rise from a base that is both psychologically and price-wise depressed.</p><p></li><li>Bull market psychology does not involve anxiety and has a high level of risk tolerance, thus accompanied by extremely aggressive behavior. Taking risks can be rewarded, while the need for hard work and diligence is overlooked.</p><p></li><li>High returns make people more confident that new things, low-probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to conclude that \"there are no stocks that are too expensive.\"</p><p></li><li>These effects will eventually cool down after they (and prices) reach unsustainable levels.</p><p></li><li>Markets at high levels are vulnerable to external events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p></li><li>The assets that rose the most, and the investors who increased their holdings, often experienced painful reversals.</p><p></li></ul>Throughout my career, I have witnessed such things happen many times, and none of them were entirely caused by fundamentals. Instead, psychological factors are the main reason, and the way the mind works is unlikely to change. This is why I firmly believe that as long as humans are involved in the investment process, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>Moreover, please note that the sharp fluctuations in the market are largely driven by psychological factors, and it is obvious that the market trend can only be predicted when prices are extremely high or extremely low, if possible.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157934587","content_text":"百年来，股票市场起起伏伏，周而复始，从未有停止，无数周期如璀璨流星般从历史天空中划过。为什么会有周期，为什么投资者要将无数精力投注到与市场波动的持续抗争之中？因为他们的投资心理始终在影响市场的走向。只要人类参与投资，我们就会看到它们一次又一次地发生。在橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）这篇名为《牛市的韵律》（Bull Market Rhymes）的最新备忘录中，对牛市周期规律进行了分析，并指出通过投资者行为可判断出当下所处阶段，在股市崩盘之前趁早离场。出于对财富梦想的追求，投资者在牛市狂潮中会缺少适当的恐惧，而这种狂热心理的出现预示着风险的临近。马克斯表示，投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。“牛市心理”并非褒义词，它意味着毫无警觉的行为和高风险承受能力，投资者应该感到担忧，而不是受到鼓舞：是风险厌恶和对损失的恐惧让市场保持安全和理智。马克斯指出，资产价格取决于基本面以及人们如何看待这些基本面。牛市中的高回报使人们更加相信新事物、小概率事件和乐观的结果将会发生。当人们对这些东西的价值深信不疑时，他们往往会得出“没有太贵的股票”的结论。此时新入市者大举买进，股市维持在高位。谨慎、选择性和纪律，在最需要的时候却消失不见。马克斯还以当下股市行情举例：在今时今日的华尔街，降息的消息将股市推高，但接下来利率走低导致通胀的预期把股市压低，然后，人们意识到降息能刺激萧条的经济，这种预期又将股市推高，之后，在经济过热将导致再次加息的恐惧中，股市最终下挫。马克斯直言，他信奉的是经久不衰的投资格言，因此最伟大的投资者行为应该是“智者所始，愚者所终”。以下为该备忘录的全文：虽然我在备忘录中运用了大量格言和引语，但只有少数能够进入我的首选名单，我最爱之一是马克吐温的名言：历史不会重演，但会以相似的韵律重复。有据可查的是，马克吐温在1874年说过前四个词，但是并没有准确的证据表明他曾说过后面的话。多年来，有很多人说过类似的话。1965年，精神分析学家Theodor Reik在名为“遥不可及”的文章中表达过同样的观点。他自己又多加了几句，我认为他的表述是最好的：周期是反复的，起起伏伏，但过程基本相同，变化很小。有人说历史会重演，但这可能不太准确，历史只是以相似的韵律重复。曾经的投资事件不会重演，但事件主旋律确实会重现，尤其是与投资行为相关的，这正是我研究的内容。在过去两年间，Reik所写道的周期经历了起起伏伏，引发市场注目。让我尤其震惊的，是在投资行为中再度出现的典型风格，这将成为本次备忘录的主题。我先提前声明，本次备忘录并不能预估市场的潜在方向。举个例子，市场看涨行为从2020年3月触及底部开始，但自那时起，经济内部（通货膨胀）和经济外部（俄乌冲突）都发生了严重问题，并且出现了重大调整。包括我在内，没有人能够知道这些事情加在一起会对未来造成何种影响。我写这篇备忘录的目的，只是为了将近期事件放在历史的背景下，从中发现一些隐含的经验教训。这一点至关重要，因为我们必须回到22年前，回到2000年科技—传媒—电信泡沫破灭之前，看看当时真正牛市的开始和由此引发的熊市结束。很多读者因为开始投资的时间较晚，没有经历过当时的事件。你可能会问“在2008-2009年全球金融危机和2020年疫情大流行导致市场崩溃之前，市场收益情况如何？”在我看来，在这两场危机之前，市场都是渐进式上涨，并不是沿着抛物线上行。上涨不是由狂热情绪推动的，股价也没有被推升至疯狂的高度，而且高股价并不是造成任何一场危机的原因。2008-2009年危机是源自房地产市场和次贷证券化的出现，2020年崩溃则是因为新冠疫情的流行和政府为控制疫情而关闭经济。对于前面所说的“真正牛市”，我对它的定义并不是来自投资百科网站（Investopedia）：金融市场中资产或证券价格在一段时间内持续上涨。市场通常在股价下跌20%之后，出现20%的上涨。第一个定义过于平淡，没能捕捉到投资者在牛市行情中的核心情绪。第二个定义提供了一种错误的精准，牛市不应该用价格的百分比变化来定义。对我来说，最好用它给人的感觉、背后的投资者心理以及由此引发的投资行为来进行描述。（在牛市和熊市的数字标准被制定之前，我就已经开始投资，我认为这样的标准毫无意义。标普500指数下跌19.9%还是20.1%真的很重要吗？我还是更喜欢熊市的老派定义—神经折磨（nerve-racking）。01、过度与修正我的第二本书是《周期》（Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side）。众所周知，我是周期的学生，也是周期的信徒。这些年我作为投资者，经历了几个重要的周期（也接受了教育）。我相信了解自己在市场周期中的位置，可以提示我们接下来会发生的事情。但是当我把这本书写完三分之二时，我突然想到一个之前从没考虑过的问题：为什么会有周期？比如，标普500指数自1957年诞生，这65年的平均年回报率略高于10%，为什么它的回报率不能每年都是10%？在这里补充一下我在2004年7月备忘录《中庸之道》中提出的问题，为什么在这期间标普500指数的回报率只有6次在8%—12%之间，为什么它在90%时间里的表现都与此相差甚远？在经过一段时间思考之后，我认为可以这么解释，那就是市场存在“过度与修正”。如果把股票市场比作一台机器，你希望它能够随着时间的推移持续稳定地运转，这个想法是合理的。然而，我认为投资者心理状态对其决策造成的重大影响，可以在很大程度上解释市场出现波动的原因。当投资者开始大举看涨时，他们倾向于得出以下结论。首先，一切都将永远上涨；其次，无论他们为一项资产支付多高的价格，其他人都会以更高的价格从他们手中买走（即“更大傻瓜”理论），因为他们对市场高度非常乐观：股价上涨速度会比公司利润增速更快，涨幅会远高于公允价值（超额上涨）。之后投资环境开始令人失望，出高价的愚蠢举动变得很显眼，股价会跌落至公允价值（修正），之后进一步跌破该价格水平。股价下跌会进一步引发市场悲观情绪，由此导致股价下挫，并远远低于其本身价值（过度下跌）。最终抄底买入会助推低迷股价回升至其公允价值（修正）。过度上涨会导致回报率在一段时间内高于平均水平，而过度下挫也会导致回报率在一段时间内低于平均水平。当然，可能还有其他因素在发挥作用，但是我认为，“过度和修正”可以解释大部分情况。在2020-2021年期间，我们看到股市有些过度上涨，而现在我们看到它们正在被修正。02、牛市心理学在牛市行情中，有利环境会引领股价上涨并提振投资者信心，而这种投资信心会诱发激进操作，之后会进一步引发股价上涨，那么接下来会出现更加乐观的投资心态以及持续的冒险操作。这种上升式螺旋就是牛市的本质，其上升过程看起来似乎势不可挡。在疫情大流行初期，我们见证了一场典型的资产价格崩盘。标普500指数先是在2020年2月19日创下3386点的历史新高，随后在短短34天内重挫三分之一，并在3月23日跌至2237点。但是之后在多种力量共同努力下，股价又出现大幅上涨：其中美联储将联邦基金利率下调至接近零的水平，并与财政部一道宣布了大规模经济刺激措施。这些行动让投资者相信，国家机构会不惜一切代价稳定经济。降息显著降低了投资的预期回报，影响其相对吸引力。这些因素结合在一起，迫使投资者开始承受短期内出现的风险。随后资产价格出现上涨：到当年8月底，标普500指数已经收回所有失地，并涨超2月高点。FAAMG（脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌）、软件股和其他科技股大幅上涨，推动市场走高。最终，投资者得出结论，认为他们可以期待股市持续上涨，这也符合他们此前在牛市行情中的常规心态。就像上面最后一点，在牛市心理中最重要的是，就是大多数人认为股价上涨是预示之后行情的积极信号，不少人开始变得乐观。只有少数人会怀疑这种行情是过度上涨，其收益是依赖未来预期，所以上涨并不会持续，并且行情将发生逆转。这让我想起了我最喜欢的另一句格言，是大约在50年前我最早学会的一句，即“牛市的三个阶段”：第一阶段，当一些有远见的人开始押注牛市或将到来；第二阶段，当大多数投资者意识到牛市正在发生；第三阶段，当每个人都认为牛市会永远持续下去。有意思的是，虽然在美联储的主导下，股市从2020年3月的疲软底部快速转变为5月的繁荣景象，但是半信半疑才是我在这期间最常见到的投资者心理，他们问我最多的问题是：环境这么糟糕，疫情大流行肆虐加上经济停滞，股市还能上涨？那时很难找到乐观主义者。很多投资者成为我已故岳父所描述的“戴手铐的人”：他们买股票不是因为自己想买，而是他们不得不买，因为现金回报率很低。一旦股市开始上涨，由于担心会被抛在后面，所以他们会追逐更高的价格。因此，股市上涨似乎是源自美联储对资本市场的操纵，而不是来自企业的良好业绩或投资者的乐观情绪。直到2020年底，在标普500指数较3月底部上涨67.9%，全年累计上涨16.3%之后，投资者的心理状态才终于赶上飙升的股价。牛市很少能够经历第一阶段，经历第二阶段的概率也很低，许多投资者都是从当年3月底的深度绝望直接转变为后来的极度乐观。对当下来说，这就是一个很好的提醒。虽然有些历史事件的主旋律确实会重复出现，但是期待历史精确重演就是一个很大的错误。03、乐观理由、超级股票和新生事物在狂热的牛市行情中，投资者会变得歇斯底里。在极端情况下，他们的想法和行为会脱离实际。这里的前提是，必须出现一些要素既能激发投资者想象力，还能阻止他们谨慎思考。因此值得注意的是，总有一些要素会在牛市中出现：新的发展、新的发明以及推动股票上涨的理由。从定义上看，牛市的特点是繁荣向上、信心倍增、容易轻信以及投资者愿意为资产支付高价，而所有这些要素都在事后被证明是超出了限度。历史经验表明，将这些特点保持在合理范围内是至关重要的。鉴于这个原因，能够刺激牛市出现的理性或感性原因都来自新生事物，无法通过历史经验解释。历史充分证明，当市场出现看涨行为，股票估值被推高，以及投资者开始毫不犹豫地接受新生事物时，后果往往是非常痛苦的。每个人都知道（或者应该知道）在股市呈现抛物线上涨之后通常会下跌20%—50%。然而正如我在高中英语课上学到的“自愿终止怀疑”（the willing suspension of disbelief），上述行为仍在投资者中不断发生，反复出现。下面是我最喜欢的另一句名言：狂喜的感觉在过去和现在都鲜为人知。人们对金融市场的记忆非常短暂，这就导致金融危机很快就会被遗忘。而当相同或者非常相似的情况再度重演时，就算发生在几年之内，在年轻且极度自信的新一代眼中，这场危机也会被誉为是金融界和经济领域的重大发现。在人类涉猎的行业中，很少有行业像金融业一样，曾经的历史经验如此没有意义。在某种程度上，历史经验完全成为回忆的一部分，对于那些无力欣赏眼下盛景的人而言，成为了他们的原始避难所—John Kenneth Galbraith，《金融狂喜简史》，1990年在过去30年里，我多次与读者分享这句话，因为我认为它很好地总结了一些重要的观点，但针对其中所描述的行为，我之前并没有分享过我对它的理解。我不认为投资者是健忘的。相反，对历史的了解和适当的谨慎态度位于天平的一侧，追求财富的梦想位于天平的另一侧，而后者总是获胜。回忆、谨慎、现实主义和风险规避只会阻碍致富梦想的实现。所以出于这个原因，当牛市行情开始时，投资者总是缺少适度的担忧。取而代之的往往是为超出历史估值标准寻找理由。1987年10月11日，Anise Wallace在《纽约时报》上发表的一篇题为《为什么这个市场周期并没有什么不同》的文章中描述了这种现象。当时人们持有乐观、积极的情绪，为异常高的股价寻找合理性，但Wallace在文中指出，这种想法是站不住脚的：74岁的共同基金经理约翰·邓普顿曾指出，投资中最危险的四个字是“这次不同”。在股市大起大落时，投资者总会用这一理由来将其情绪驱动的决策合理化。在接下来的一年里，许多投资者可能会重复这四个字，为高股价辩护。但他们更应该持有“有钱了我就还你”（the check’s in the mail找借口拖延）的态度来看待股市上涨，不管经纪人或基金经理怎么说，牛市不会永远持续下去。结果，没花一年时间，仅仅八天后，全球遭遇了“黑色星期一”，道琼斯工业指数单日暴跌22.6%。对牛市的另一个解释是投资者相信某些企业一定会拥有美好的未来。这适用于20世纪60年代末的“漂亮50”成长股；80年代的半导体制造商；以及90年代末的电信、互联网和电子商务公司。人们认为，每一项发展都能够改变世界，因此，过去的商业现实并不能限制投资者的想象力和投资意愿。他们确实改变了世界。尽管如此，曾被认为合理的高估值并没有持续下去。在许多牛市中，一或多个群体被我称之为“超级股票”，它们的迅速崛起让投资者越来越乐观。日益增长的乐观情绪将股价推向高点，成为以往市场循环过程中的一个特征。通过相对价值比较和投资者情绪的普遍改善，这种积极性和估值走高进一步反映到其他证券（或所有证券）的估值中。回顾前两年，在2020—2021年，FAAMG（脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌）在令投资者兴奋不已的公司中位居榜首，其市场主导地位和规模能力前所未有的。2020年FAAMG的惊艳表现吸引了投资者的注意，并支持了普遍的看涨趋势。到2020年9月（六个月内），这些股票与3月份的低点相比，几乎翻了一番，较年初上涨了61%。值得一提的是，这五只股票在标普500指数中权重很大，因此它们的表现导致指数整体涨势良好，但这分散了人们对其他495只表现不佳股票的注意力。FAAMG的巨大成功为科技股带来了普遍的积极影响，投资者对科技股的需求激增，与投资领域的情况一样，强劲的需求刺激并增加了供应。在这种情况下，一个值得注意的晴雨表是未盈利的公司对待IPO的态度。在20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫之前，没有盈利的公司的IPO相对较少，在泡沫期间期间激增，但此后数量再次下降。在2020-2021年的牛市中，未盈利的首次公开募股（IPO）经历了一次大的反弹，因为投资者愿意支持科技公司规模化的愿望和生物科技公司在药物试验上的开支需求。如果拥有光明前景的公司为牛市提供了动力，那么市场上的新兴事物可能会起到推波助澜的作用，加剧其上涨。SPAC（借壳上市）是最近一个典型的例子。投资者为这些新成立的公司开展收购活动提供了空白支票，在满足以下两个条件后可以连本带利拿回资金，“如果两年内没有完成收购，或者如果投资者不同意拟议的收购”。这似乎是一个“稳赚不赔”（世界上最危险的一个词）的买卖，SPAC的数量从2013年的10个和2019年的59个飙升至2020年的248个和2021的613个。一些公司获得了巨额利润，而在其他情况下，投资者连本带息收回了资金。但是，由于缺乏对未经考验的创新的怀疑，加之牛市心理的推动，使得太多SPAC被创造出来，无论是由称职的还是不称职的发起者，他们都会因完成收购而获得高额报酬......任何收购。如今，自2020年以来通过完成收购并退出的SPAC平均售价为5.25美元，而发行价为10.00美元。这是一个很好的例子，证明了新事物并不是投资者所想的那么可靠——投资者再次为“一定不会发生的事”付出代价。SPAC的支持者则认为，这些实体只是公司上市的另一种方式，并不担心它的潜在作用。我重点关注的是，投资者在火热时期如何欣然接受一项未经考验的创新。另一个有关创新因素的动态也值得一提，其展示了“新事物”是如何对牛市作出了贡献：Robinhood Markets在疫情暴发前几年开始提供股票、Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF和加密货币等的免佣金交易。新冠疫情暴发后，这就鼓励了人们涌向股市，开始炒股，因为赌场和体育赛事停止了赌博业务。数百万没有失业的人得到了慷慨的财政补贴，这意味着许多人在疫情期间的可支配收入增加了。而像Reddit这样的社交网站把投资转变成一种“隔离居家的社交活动”。因此，大量的新手散户投资者涌向股市，其中许多人缺乏基本的投资经验。新手会因崇拜某位公众人物而激动不已，并声称“股市只会上涨” 。因此，许多科技股和“模因股”（抱团散户股）价格飙升。最后一个值得讨论的新兴事物是加密货币。例如，比特币的支持者列举了其多种用途，以及相对于潜在需求其供应是有限的。另一方面，怀疑论者指出，比特币缺乏现金流和内在价值，因此无法确定公允价格。无论哪一方是正确的，比特币都满足从牛市中受益的一些特征：比特币相对较新的（虽然它已经存在14年了，但最近五年人们才关注到它）。比特币价格大幅飙升，从2020年的5000美元上涨到2021年的最高点68000美元。根据Galbrait的说法，这肯定是前几代人“无法欣赏”事物。从所有这些方面来看，这完全符合Galbrait的描述，即“由新的、年轻且十分自信的一代人热烈拥护，认为是金融领域伟大的创新发明”的事物。现在，比特币与2021的高点相比下跌了一半多，但已经存在的数千种其他加密货币，跌幅要更大。2020年FAAMG、科技股、SPACs、抱团股和加密货币的惊人表现使得这种迷恋更加狂热，并增加了投资者的普遍乐观情绪。很难想象在没有前所未见或闻所未闻的情况下，会出现一个全面的牛市。“新新事物”和“这次不同”的信念是牛市主题反复出现的典型特征。04、逐底竞争不同周期中的另一个牛市主题是，牛市趋势对投资者决策质量的有害影响。简言之，当冷静理智被燃烧的乐观情绪取代时：资产价格上涨贪婪盖过恐惧不再担心亏损，转向担忧踏空风险厌恶和小心谨慎逐渐消失必须记住，是风险厌恶和对损失的恐惧让市场保持安全和理智。上述事态发展通常会提振市场，使谨慎和理智思考消失，令其成为危险之地。我曾在2007年的备忘录《逐底竞争》中解释说，当投资者和资本提供者手中有太多资金，他们太渴望投入使用时，所以对证券和放贷机会的出价就过于激进。激烈的竞价压低了预期回报，增加了风险，削弱了安全结构，并降低了容错率。谨慎的投资者坚持己见，说：“我坚持8%的利息和强力契约。”其竞争对手回应道：“我接受7%的利息，并要求更少的契约。”最不守规矩的人不想错过这个机会，说：“我可以接受6%的利息，且不需要契约。”这是“逐底竞争”，这正是人们常说的“最差的贷款来自于最好的时候”。当人们对最近的损失感到痛心，害怕经历更多损失时，这是不可能发生的事情。美联储为应对全球金融危机采取大规模的措施后，迎来了了长达10多年的创纪录经济复苏和股市上涨，但伴随而来的还有：亏损公司的IPO浪潮次级证券（高风险CCC评级债券）创纪录的发行高波动性行业（科技和软件）公司大量发债，而谨慎的时期人们往往会选择回避这些行业并购和收购的估值倍数不断上升风险溢价持续走低有利的发展也鼓励更多地使用杠杆。杠杆放大收益和损失，但在牛市中，投资者确信收益是必然的，而忽视损失的可能性。在这种情况下，很少有人能找到不举债的理由，因为债务的利息成本微乎其微，且可以增加成功的回报。但是，在上涨周期后期以高价增加负债并不是成功的最佳方式。当情况变得糟糕时，杠杆就会变得不利。当投资银行在投资末期发行债务时，他们就会陷入困境。“挂在”银行资产负债表上的债务往往会成为“煤矿里的金丝雀”，暗示危险即将到来。由于我信奉的是经久不衰的投资格言，因此，在这一点上，引用我认为最伟大的投资者行为的格言是十分恰当的，“智者所始，愚者所终”。在牛市的第一阶段购买股票的人，由于普遍的悲观情绪（如2008-09年全球金融危机期间和2020年新冠疫情初期），价格较低，有可能在风险极小的情况下获得丰厚的回报，主要先决条件是资金和胆量。但当牛市升温，可观的回报鼓励了投资者乐观的情绪，此时获得回报的特质是渴望、轻信和冒险。在牛市的第三阶段，新入市者大举买进，股市维持在高位。谨慎、选择性和纪律，在最需要的时候却消失不见。特别值得注意的是，乐观情绪并因风险承受能力而获得回报的投资者通常不再对投资机会进行辨别。投资者不仅认为一些“新事物”的肯定会成功，而且最终他们得出结论是，该领域前途一片光明，因此没有必要再进行区分。由于上述原因，“牛市心理”并非褒义词。它意味着毫无警觉的行为和高风险承受能力，投资者应该感到担忧，而不是受到鼓舞。正如巴菲特所言，“别人处理自己的事情越不谨慎小心,我们处理自己的事情就越要谨慎小心”。投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。05、钟摆效应牛市不是凭空出现的。每次牛市中的赢家之所以成为赢家，原因很简单，即他们获利的背后存在一些事实。然而，我上面所说的牛市往往会夸大股票价值，并将股价推至过高也因此脆弱的水平。并且，向上的波动不会永远持续下去。我曾在《躺在沙发上》（OntheCouch，2016年1月）中写道：“在现实世界中，事情通常在‘相当好’和‘不太热’之间来回摆动。但在投资世界中，人们的预期往往从‘充满希望’变为‘绝望’”。在市场中，把事情做得严重过头是投资者行为的关键特征之一。牛市期间，投资者认为，有难度、不大可能发生和前所未有的事情肯定会奏效。但在不那么景气的时期，利好的经济消息和“业绩超过预期”并未能刺激买盘，股价上涨也不再使持仓水平较低的投资者感到后悔。因此，我们看到，人们不再愿意暂时摒弃质疑，心态迅速转为消极。投资者能够对几乎任意一条新闻进行解读，正面还是负面取决于报道方式和他们的心情，这是关键所在。（下面的漫画，我一直以来的最爱之一，是几十年前出版的，看看那些天线和电视机柜的深度，但显而易见，文字说明才与这一刻的主题有关。）“在今时今日的华尔街，降息的消息将股市推高，但接下来利率走低导致通胀的预期把股市压低，然后，人们意识到降息能刺激萧条的经济，这种预期又将股市推高，之后，在经济过热将导致再次加息的恐惧中，股市最终下挫。”将这个盛行的说法倒过来，便反映出我之前提到的“从充满希望到绝望”的过程。虽然支持牛市会发生的观点有些道理，但当进展顺利时，投资者便将其视为板上钉钉的事。然而，当这个观点的某些缺陷暴露出来时，人们又认为它完全错误。在欢乐的日子里（在一年前），科技多头说：“你必须买成长股，因为未来几十年它们的收益很可能会增长。”但现在，在经历了一轮暴跌之后，我们反而听到：“基于未来潜力的投资风险太大。你必须持有价值股，因为能够确定它们的现值，另外定价较为合理。”同样，在经济繁荣时期，参与亏损公司IPO的投资人表示：“报告亏损的公司没有什么问题，他们花钱扩大规模合情合理。”但现在的说法不一样了，许多人表示：“谁会投资于无利可图的公司？他们只会烧钱。”没有花太多时间观察市场的人可能认为资产价格完全取决于基本面，但事实并非如此。资产价格取决于基本面以及人们如何看待这些基本面。因此，资产价格的变化取决于基本面的变化和/或人们如何看待这些基本面的变化。公司基本面理论上受制于所谓的“分析”，甚至可能是预测。另一方面，对基本面的看法是主观的，不受分析或预测的影响，并且变化得更快、更剧烈。一些俗语也反映了这个观点：气球放气的速度比充气的速度快得多。事情发生的时间比你想象的要晚，但是它们发生的速度比你想象的要快得多。至于后者，根据我的经验，我们经常看到积极或消极的基本面会在一段时间内同时出现，而股价却没有反应。但随后达到了一个临界点——无论是基本面还是心理面——全部突然反映在价格上，有时甚至反映过度。06、然后会发生什么？牛市不会对所有行业一视同仁。正如我之前所讨论的，在牛市中，乐观情绪最强烈地集中在某类股票上，例如“新事物”或“超级股票”。这类股票涨幅最大，成为这一时期牛市的象征，并吸引进一步的买盘。媒体最关注这类股票，延长了整个过程。在2020-2021年期间，FAAMG和其他科技股就是这种现象的最好例子。道理不言而喻，但我还是要说，持有大量在牛市中领先的股票的投资者都做得很好。一些基金经理足够聪明或足够幸运地专注于这些股票，因此他们实现的回报最高，乐观情绪盛行，与此同时，他们还出现在报纸和有线电视节目的头版。过去，我曾说过，我们的行业到处都是因连续做出正确决定而出名的人。而对于那些足够聪明或幸运地增持引领牛市的板块的基金经理来说，出名的人可能会翻倍。然而，在上涨年份中涨幅最大的股票往往在下跌年份中跌幅最大。这里适用的格言来自现实世界，但这并没有降低它们的相关性：“成也萧何，败也萧何”“有起必有落”和“爬得越高，摔得越狠”：第一支科技基金在2020年增长了157%，从默默无闻到名声大震。但它在2021年下跌了23%，2022年迄今又下跌了57%。2019年底投资的100美元在一年后价值257美元，但如今已跌至85美元。另一支波动性较小的科技基金在2020年上涨了48%，但此后下跌了48%。不幸的是，上涨的48%和下跌的48%并无法相互抵消，实际上，每投资100美元，净下跌22美元。第三支科技基金在第一年上涨了惊人的291%，但在随后的三年中分别下跌了21%、60%和61%。在这四年里，开始时投资的100美元在最后仅价值43美元，相当于从第一年年底不可思议的高点下降了89%。等一下，目前的繁荣/萧条期还没有持续四年。不，我引用的是1999-2002年的结果，当时最后一个科技泡沫也破裂了。我提它们只是为了提醒你当前的表现是一次情景再现。前面我提到过免佣金交易的鼻祖Robinhood。它是2020-2021年牛市期间数字货币股的缩影。Robinhood于2021年7月以38美元/股的价格上市，一周后股价飙升至85美元。如今的股价仅为10美元，在不到一年的时间里从高位下跌了88%。但是股票的平均表现其实并没有那么糟糕，对吧？以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在2022年“仅”下跌27.4%。这个“牛市”的一个特征是，最大的成分股表现最好，从而提振了指数。思考一下这对其余成分股意味着什么，纳指22%的股票至少下跌了50%。（此处和下面数据的时间截至5月20日）以下是我随机挑选的一些知名科技、数字货币和创新型股票的跌幅。也许，当这里的一些股票处于巅峰的时候，你因为没有入手而感到自责：假设，你仍然相信股价是由聪明的投资者根据基本面达成的共识决定的。如果是这样，那为什么所有这些股票都跌得如此惨烈？你真的相信这些企业的价值在过去几个月平均蒸发了一半以上吗？这个问题引发了一些我经常在想的其他问题。在股市出现剧烈波动之际，比特币经常朝同一个方向变动。这背后是否存在某种根本原因导致两者之间走势存在相关性？国家之间的市场联系也是如此：当日本股市开局大幅下滑时，欧美股市往往会跟跌。有时，似乎美国股市领先，日本股市却同时出现下滑。这些国家基本面之间的联系是否足以导致它们联动？我对所有这些问题的回答通常都是“不”。共同点不是基本面，而是心理因素，当后者发生重大变化时，所有这些事情都会受到类似的影响。07、经验正如对于投资专业的学生来说，最重要的不是在特定时间段内发生了什么事，而是我们可以从这些事件中学到什么。我们可以从2020-2021年的趋势中学到很多东西，这些趋势与前几个周期的趋势是一致的。在牛市中：乐观是基于那些做得非常好的事情而建立的。当股价从在心理和价位方面均相当低迷的基数上涨时，影响最为强烈。牛市心理不存在担忧情绪，并且具有高水平的风险承受能力，因此伴随极为激进的行为。承担风险会得到回报，而努力勤奋的必要性却被遭到忽视。高回报使人们更加相信新事物、小概率事件和乐观的结果将会发生。当人们对这些东西的价值深信不疑时，他们往往会得出“没有太贵的股票”的结论。在它们（和价格）达到不可持续的水平之后，这些影响最终会降温。处于高位的市场容易受到外部事件的影响，例如俄乌冲突。涨幅最大的资产以及增持它们的投资者，往往会经历痛苦的反转。在我的职业生涯中，我曾多次目睹此类事情发生，当中没有一次完全是由基本面造成的，相反，心理因素是主要原因，而心理的运作方式又不太可能发生改变。这就是为什么我坚信只要人类参与投资过程，我们就会看到它们一次又一次地发生。而且，请注意，市场的剧烈波动基本上是由心理因素驱动的，显而易见，如果可能的话，只有当价格极高或极低时，才能预测市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021517291,"gmtCreate":1653086610813,"gmtModify":1676535219267,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021517291","repostId":"1190645914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190645914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653060803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190645914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190645914","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-20 23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190645914","content_text":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029794411,"gmtCreate":1652830380533,"gmtModify":1676535168428,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029794411","repostId":"2236220493","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029794656,"gmtCreate":1652830360475,"gmtModify":1676535168419,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029794656","repostId":"2236274480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236274480","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652828904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236274480?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236274480","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-18 07:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236274480","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,\" Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal's Future of Everything Festival. \"There could be some pain involved.\"Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. \"It may not be a perfect labor market,\" he said.The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn't raised rates in such intervals since 2000.The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal.He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation \"is probably well above 3.6%.\"The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. \"If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can't,\" he said. \"I think we are in a world of firsts.\"Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.\"The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,\" he said.Mr. Powell said he wasn't at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a \"soft landing,\" in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.\"I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,\" he said. \"It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.\"Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.\"That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,\" said Mr. Powell.The Fed's stopping point for rate increases isn't certainty. If inflation doesn't show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.\"We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, 'Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,'\" Mr. Powell said. \"We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.\"The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index's gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at Morgan Stanley think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.\"This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,\" Mr. Powell said. \"We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we'll keep going.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913680,"gmtCreate":1652138906140,"gmtModify":1676535036281,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913680","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913391,"gmtCreate":1652138887613,"gmtModify":1676535036273,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913391","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065919765,"gmtCreate":1652138859957,"gmtModify":1676535036265,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065919765","repostId":"2234884616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880605,"gmtCreate":1652051034907,"gmtModify":1676535017629,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880605","repostId":"1151523366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151523366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652050295,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151523366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151523366","media":"Barrons","summary":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.</p><p>Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6917c65c235b29b3cad735f401b18555\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.</p><p>Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.</p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.</p><p><b>Monday 5/9</b></p><p>BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors &amp; Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/10</b></p><p>Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.</p><p>Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b> of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/11</b></p><p>Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.</p><p><b>Rivian Automotive,</b> Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b> Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/12</b></p><p>Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p>Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.</p><p>Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.</p><p><b>The BLS releases</b> the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.</p><p><b>Friday 5/13</b></p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b> releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-09 06:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TM":"丰田汽车","U":"Unity Software Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","OXY":"西方石油","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","NCLH":"挪威邮轮",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EA":"艺电","DIS":"迪士尼",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151523366","content_text":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.Monday 5/9BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors & Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.Tuesday 5/10Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.Wednesday 5/11Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.Rivian Automotive, Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.Thursday 5/12Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.The BLS releases the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.Friday 5/13The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9,"U":0.9,"OXY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"EA":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"TM":0.9,"NCLH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880044,"gmtCreate":1652051013188,"gmtModify":1676535017614,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880044","repostId":"2233559861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2233559861","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652014810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2233559861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-08 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The sell-off in US stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point for the market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2233559861","media":"第一财经","summary":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者","content":"<p><div>Wall Street experienced another five turbulent trading days. The Federal Reserve's decision did not mark a short-term market bottom as it did in March, and the three major stock indexes continued their correction since April. Behind the wave of sell-offs in risky assets lies investor concerns about a soft landing for the US economy. The market has begun to turn its attention to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI). The impact of the data on inflation expectations may dampen speculation about the path of rate hike, thereby providing a breathing space for the continuously declining market. The escalating inflation expectations game is undoubtedly the biggest focus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting recently, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The sell-off in US stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point for the market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe sell-off in US stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point for the market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-08 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Wall Street experienced another five turbulent trading days. The Federal Reserve's decision did not mark a short-term market bottom as it did in March, and the three major stock indexes continued their correction since April. Behind the wave of sell-offs in risky assets lies investor concerns about a soft landing for the US economy. The market has begun to turn its attention to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI). The impact of the data on inflation expectations may dampen speculation about the path of rate hike, thereby providing a breathing space for the continuously declining market. The escalating inflation expectations game is undoubtedly the biggest focus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting recently, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528f1b5f95c1aa85d740d858963e7e8f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2233559861","content_text":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者物价指数（CPI），数据对通胀预期的影响可能会打压资金对于加息路径的猜测，进而为持续下跌的市场带来喘息机会。通胀预期博弈升温美联储议息会议无疑是近期最大焦点，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定将联邦基金利率上调至0.75%-1.00%，这也是2000年以来首次加息50个基点。与此同时，缩减资产负债表计划也随之公布，美联储计划在9月将缩表规模提升至950亿美元，这是历史上最快的缩表周期之一。通过收紧货币政策，美联储希望在实现控制通胀的同时，避免经济衰退的发生。在一季度国内生产总值（GDP）意外回落后，本周公布的包括制造业、服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）、贸易逆差等数据，都在显示美国经济动能有进一步放缓的迹象。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，高涨的物价问题仍然是美联储的主要担忧，快速上涨的商品和服务价格，正在侵蚀美国家庭收入，对消费者信心形成了负面影响。考虑到供应链瓶颈和地缘政治因素，美联储想要在政策和经济之间找到平衡点，正面临巨大挑战。货币政策开始对信贷市场产生冲击。房地美上周报告称，30年期抵押贷款利率达到5.27%，比此前一周上升17个基点，为2009年以来的最高水平。从近两周公布的成屋销售、新屋开工等数据看，新一轮加息周期和即将开始的缩表周期，让买房者在不断上涨的房价面前开始望而却步。值得注意的是，美联储加息后，高涨的通胀预期并未随之明显降温。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上称，并未对75个基点加息“积极考虑”，根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）利率观察工具FedWatch的最新数据，投资者认为6月加息75基点的可能性高达83%，而美联储上一次这么做还是在1994年11月。在外界看来，未来通胀的走向将很大程度上决定美联储的加息路径。最新公布的非农就业报告显示，劳动力市场需求依然强劲，但小时薪资增速较上月有所放缓。施瓦茨认为，随着储蓄率下降和管制措施放松，美国劳动力市场供应增加将给工资增长带来下行压力，这有望印证鲍威尔对“工资-价格螺旋”的风险评估。市场已经把目光转向下周将公布的CPI，如果增速能从此前创造的40年高位回落的话，通胀预期的有效降温可能缓解美联储的政策压力。施瓦茨告诉第一财经记者，他认为75个基点的加息幅度过于激进，更倾向于美联储将在未来两次会议继续加息50个基点，以避免出现政策收紧过快冲击经济的情况。市场反弹是否临近美联储加息周期的冲击波仍在延续，芝加哥期权交易所市场波动性指数（VIX）本周一度冲击年内新高。目前道指已经连跌六周，标普500指数自2011年以来首次出现周线五连阴的情况。科技股持续表现不佳，截至6日收盘，纳指较去年11月历史高点已经回撤近25%。政策预期不断推高美债收益率，基准10年期美债上周一度触及突破3.10%，冲击了其依赖现金流的估值体系。美国投资公司爱德华琼斯(EdwardJones)的投资策略师库尔卡法斯（Angelo Kourkafas）表示：“成长股表现不佳与实际收益率的上升直接相关，而目前实际收益率已经处于正区间。其实问题不仅在于不同利率制度带来的估值压力，还在于相关需求有所提前，这是本财报季相关板块所表现出的主要趋势之一。”市场动荡也打压了投资者情绪。美国个人投资者协会（AAII）最新每周调查显示，个人投资者对未来六个月前景“看跌”的比例上升至59.4%，为2009年以来的最高水平。另一项情绪指标——市场恐惧与贪婪指数已经连续第四周处于恐慌区间。投资者继续抛售各类风险资产。金融市场数据和基础设施提供商路孚特（Refinitiv Lipper）的数据显示，截至5月4日的一周内，美国投资者抛售了价值55.2亿美元的债券基金，连续净卖出达到17周，股票基金净流出37.6亿美元，其中成长型基金卖出39.3亿美元。避险情绪推动下，本周货币市场基金录得净买入26.3亿美元。美股连续调整后，不少资金在衍生品市场上为超跌反弹摩拳擦掌。根据嘉信理财为第一财经记者提供的数据，过去一周，VIX看涨期权和看跌期权未平仓量分别环比增长1.8%和14.7%，与此同时，标普500指数看涨期权未平仓量增长2.6%，看跌期权回落1.5%，两者都显示，投资者在押注短期美股将企稳回升。不过，不少华尔街机构认为，本轮市场调整的低点尚未出现。高盛首席经济学家哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）上周预计，美股将出现震荡下跌的走势。他在报告中写道：“如果我们短期不会出现衰退的预测是正确的，那么今年迄今为止看到的模式可能会继续下去：只要衰退不正式出现，股市就会不断探底反抽，同时利率曲线和大宗商品价格会随着时间的推移继续走高。”文末，让我们看看市场将有哪些重要事件及重要财报吧！下周前瞻 | 美国4月CPI即将揭晓；西方石油、理想汽车财报来袭周一，佛诞翌日，港股休市，美股正常开市。周二起，港股开始交易。经济数据方面，中国4月贸易帐、货币供应数据、美国批发销售数据将公布。周二，经济数据方面，美国4月NFIB小型企业信心指数、中国4月全社会用电量等数据将公布。事件方面，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯将发表讲话。周三，经济数据方面，中国4月CPI/PPI、美国4月CPI等重要经济数据将公布。新股方面，云康集团新股申购结束。周四，经济数据方面，美国4月PPI、美国当周初请失业金人数等数据将公布。周五，经济数据方面，美国4月进口物价指数、5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数等数据将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利将就能源和通胀发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066486000,"gmtCreate":1651944590500,"gmtModify":1676535001354,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066486000","repostId":"2233315662","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9029794656,"gmtCreate":1652830360475,"gmtModify":1676535168419,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029794656","repostId":"2236274480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236274480","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652828904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236274480?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236274480","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-18 07:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236274480","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,\" Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal's Future of Everything Festival. \"There could be some pain involved.\"Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. \"It may not be a perfect labor market,\" he said.The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn't raised rates in such intervals since 2000.The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal.He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation \"is probably well above 3.6%.\"The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. \"If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can't,\" he said. \"I think we are in a world of firsts.\"Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.\"The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,\" he said.Mr. Powell said he wasn't at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a \"soft landing,\" in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.\"I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,\" he said. \"It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.\"Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.\"That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,\" said Mr. Powell.The Fed's stopping point for rate increases isn't certainty. If inflation doesn't show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.\"We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, 'Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,'\" Mr. Powell said. \"We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.\"The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index's gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at Morgan Stanley think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.\"This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,\" Mr. Powell said. \"We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we'll keep going.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054679887,"gmtCreate":1655388036349,"gmtModify":1676535627987,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054679887","repostId":"1118727036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118727036","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655386410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118727036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118727036","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-16 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118727036","content_text":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913680,"gmtCreate":1652138906140,"gmtModify":1676535036281,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913680","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153459617,"gmtCreate":1625044543839,"gmtModify":1703850788785,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153459617","repostId":"1100844519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100844519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624850864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100844519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Hong Kong stocks will be closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100844519","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通","content":"<p>It is understood that the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1 (Thursday). The specific arrangements are as follows<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on Thursday, July 1st. The market will reopen as usual on Friday, July 2.</p><p><b>US stocks, A-shares, UK stocks, Australian stocks, and Singapore markets will continue to trade as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Services will not be provided from June 30 (Wednesday) to July 1 (Thursday), but will resume as usual from July 2 (Friday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Services will not be available on Thursday, July 1st, but will resume as usual on Friday, July 2nd.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Hong Kong stocks will be closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Hong Kong stocks will be closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is understood that the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1 (Thursday). The specific arrangements are as follows<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on Thursday, July 1st. The market will reopen as usual on Friday, July 2.</p><p><b>US stocks, A-shares, UK stocks, Australian stocks, and Singapore markets will continue to trade as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Services will not be provided from June 30 (Wednesday) to July 1 (Thursday), but will resume as usual from July 2 (Friday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Services will not be available on Thursday, July 1st, but will resume as usual on Friday, July 2nd.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6adcf1f575211fc4f9ca7f666658417","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100844519","content_text":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通：\n6月30日（周三）至7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125410743,"gmtCreate":1624685191382,"gmtModify":1703843636719,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125410743","repostId":"2146005842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146005842","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624668303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146005842?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"IPO News | Yacht International Holdings Limited has filed for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), primarily engaged in the sale of first-hand yachts of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146005842","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据港交所6月25日披露，游艇国际控股有限公司向港交所创业板递交上市申请，独家保荐人为新华汇富旗下汇富融资有限公司。公司是以香港为基地的游艇经销集团，主要从事豪华及中高端品牌的一手游艇销售。公司亦从事二手游艇及其他配套配件销售及提供全面的增值服务，包括保养及维修服务。公司在香港设有一个销售办事处以推广最新型号游艇来吸引潜在客户及促进游艇销售。","content":"<p><html><body>According to a disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 25, Yacht International Holdings Limited has submitted a listing application to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Huifu Capital Limited, a subsidiary of Xinhua Huifu, as the sole sponsor.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667864475917.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667864475917.png\"/></center>The company began distributing yachts in Hong Kong in 2014. Since 2014 and 2015, the company has acted as an agent.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>The motor yacht brands are Absolute and Azimut (which are among the few internationally renowned luxury motor yacht brands). The company is a Hong Kong-based yacht dealership group, primarily engaged in the sale of first-hand yachts of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands. The company also engages in the sale of used yachts and other accessories and provides comprehensive value-added services, including maintenance and repair services. During the Track Record Period, the Company's yacht sales were substantially entirely conducted in Hong Kong, and the Company was able to expand its sales network to Singapore, Taiwan and Shenzhen. The company has a balanced product portfolio, offering a wide range of products such as luxury motor yachts, sports boats, and inflatable boats to attract a wide range of customers. The company has a sales office in Hong Kong to promote the latest yacht models to attract potential customers and boost yacht sales. The company's customers are mainly individuals (product end users) with high disposable income in Hong Kong, as well as several enterprises.</p><p>As at the Latest Practicable Date, the Company's brand portfolio included two luxury brands — Absolute and Azimut and two mid-to-high-end brands — Four Winns and Zar Formenti. In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, sales of first-hand Absolute luxury motor yachts amounted to HK$47.3 million, HK$32.7 million and HK$60.1 million, respectively, accounting for approximately 19.2%, 12.9% and 13.0% of the company's revenue; In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, sales of first-hand Azimut luxury motor yachts amounted to HK$181.4 million, HK$195.4 million and HK$325 million, accounting for approximately 73.5%, 77.1% and 70.5% of the company's revenue, respectively;</p><p>In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, the company's sales to its five largest customers amounted to approximately HK$163.3 million, HK$193.1 million and HK$222.2 million, respectively, accounting for 66.2%, 76.1% and 48.3% of total revenue; And annual sales to the largest customer for the respective years amounted to HK$79.6 million, HK$62.6 million and HK$91.2 million respectively, accounting for 32.3%, 24.7% and 19.8% of total revenue.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the Company's revenue was derived from (i) the sale of yachts and related components; And (ii) service income. For FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, revenue was HK$246.7 million, HK$253.6 million and HK$461.2 million, respectively. Gross profit for the same year was HK$34.15 million, HK$38.97 million and HK$57.97 million, respectively.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667847635417.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667847635417.png\"/></p><p></center></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO News | Yacht International Holdings Limited has filed for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), primarily engaged in the sale of first-hand yachts of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO News | Yacht International Holdings Limited has filed for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), primarily engaged in the sale of first-hand yachts of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>According to a disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 25, Yacht International Holdings Limited has submitted a listing application to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Huifu Capital Limited, a subsidiary of Xinhua Huifu, as the sole sponsor.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667864475917.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667864475917.png\"/></center>The company began distributing yachts in Hong Kong in 2014. Since 2014 and 2015, the company has acted as an agent.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>The motor yacht brands are Absolute and Azimut (which are among the few internationally renowned luxury motor yacht brands). The company is a Hong Kong-based yacht dealership group, primarily engaged in the sale of first-hand yachts of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands. The company also engages in the sale of used yachts and other accessories and provides comprehensive value-added services, including maintenance and repair services. During the Track Record Period, the Company's yacht sales were substantially entirely conducted in Hong Kong, and the Company was able to expand its sales network to Singapore, Taiwan and Shenzhen. The company has a balanced product portfolio, offering a wide range of products such as luxury motor yachts, sports boats, and inflatable boats to attract a wide range of customers. The company has a sales office in Hong Kong to promote the latest yacht models to attract potential customers and boost yacht sales. The company's customers are mainly individuals (product end users) with high disposable income in Hong Kong, as well as several enterprises.</p><p>As at the Latest Practicable Date, the Company's brand portfolio included two luxury brands — Absolute and Azimut and two mid-to-high-end brands — Four Winns and Zar Formenti. In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, sales of first-hand Absolute luxury motor yachts amounted to HK$47.3 million, HK$32.7 million and HK$60.1 million, respectively, accounting for approximately 19.2%, 12.9% and 13.0% of the company's revenue; In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, sales of first-hand Azimut luxury motor yachts amounted to HK$181.4 million, HK$195.4 million and HK$325 million, accounting for approximately 73.5%, 77.1% and 70.5% of the company's revenue, respectively;</p><p>In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, the company's sales to its five largest customers amounted to approximately HK$163.3 million, HK$193.1 million and HK$222.2 million, respectively, accounting for 66.2%, 76.1% and 48.3% of total revenue; And annual sales to the largest customer for the respective years amounted to HK$79.6 million, HK$62.6 million and HK$91.2 million respectively, accounting for 32.3%, 24.7% and 19.8% of total revenue.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the Company's revenue was derived from (i) the sale of yachts and related components; And (ii) service income. For FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, revenue was HK$246.7 million, HK$253.6 million and HK$461.2 million, respectively. Gross profit for the same year was HK$34.15 million, HK$38.97 million and HK$57.97 million, respectively.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667847635417.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667847635417.png\"/></p><p></center></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501817.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0d8d07bb7c07ed67df2bae10160584","relate_stocks":{"159915":"创业板","399006":"创业板指","DLX":"豪华","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146005842","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据港交所6月25日披露，游艇国际控股有限公司向港交所创业板递交上市申请，独家保荐人为新华汇富旗下汇富融资有限公司。该公司于2014年开始在香港经销游艇。自2014年及2015年起，公司代理的豪华机动游艇品牌分别为Absolute及Azimut(为少数国际知名豪华机动游艇品牌)。公司是以香港为基地的游艇经销集团，主要从事豪华及中高端品牌的一手游艇销售。公司亦从事二手游艇及其他配套配件销售及提供全面的增值服务，包括保养及维修服务。于往绩期间，公司的游艇销售基本上全部于香港进行，且公司能够将销售网络扩展至新加坡、中国台湾及深圳。公司拥有均衡的产品组合，提供豪华机动游艇、运动艇及充气船等各式各样的产品，以吸纳广泛客户。公司在香港设有一个销售办事处以推广最新型号游艇来吸引潜在客户及促进游艇销售。公司的客户主要为在香港拥有高可支配收入的个人(产品终端用户)以及多间企业。于最后可行日期，公司的品牌组合包括两个豪华品牌 — Absolute及Azimut以及两个中高端品牌 — Four Winns及Zar  Formenti。于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，一手Absolute豪华机动游艇的销售额为4730万港元、3270万港元及6010万港元，分别占公司收益的约19.2%、12.9%及13.0%;于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，一手Azimut豪华机动游艇的销售额为1.814亿港元、1.954亿港元及3.25亿港元，分别占公司收益的约73.5%、77.1%及70.5%;于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，公司向五大客户的销售分别为约1.633亿港元、1.931亿港元及2.222亿港元，占总收益66.2%、76.1%及48.3%;以及于相关年度每年向最大客户的销售分别为7960万港元、6260万港元及9120万港元，占总收益32.3%、24.7%及19.8%。于往绩期间，公司的收益源于(i)销售游艇及相关部件;及(ii)服务收入。于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，收益分别为2.467亿港元、2.536亿港元及4.612亿港元。同年的毛利分别为3415万港元、3897万港元及5797万港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159915":1,"399006":1,"DLX":1,"000001.SH":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021517291,"gmtCreate":1653086610813,"gmtModify":1676535219267,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021517291","repostId":"1190645914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190645914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653060803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190645914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190645914","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-20 23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190645914","content_text":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913391,"gmtCreate":1652138887613,"gmtModify":1676535036273,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913391","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880605,"gmtCreate":1652051034907,"gmtModify":1676535017629,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880605","repostId":"1151523366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151523366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652050295,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151523366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151523366","media":"Barrons","summary":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.</p><p>Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6917c65c235b29b3cad735f401b18555\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.</p><p>Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.</p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.</p><p><b>Monday 5/9</b></p><p>BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors &amp; Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/10</b></p><p>Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.</p><p>Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b> of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/11</b></p><p>Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.</p><p><b>Rivian Automotive,</b> Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b> Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/12</b></p><p>Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p>Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.</p><p>Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.</p><p><b>The BLS releases</b> the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.</p><p><b>Friday 5/13</b></p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b> releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-09 06:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TM":"丰田汽车","U":"Unity Software Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","OXY":"西方石油","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","NCLH":"挪威邮轮",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EA":"艺电","DIS":"迪士尼",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151523366","content_text":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.Monday 5/9BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors & Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.Tuesday 5/10Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.Wednesday 5/11Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.Rivian Automotive, Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.Thursday 5/12Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.The BLS releases the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.Friday 5/13The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9,"U":0.9,"OXY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"EA":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"TM":0.9,"NCLH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063409412,"gmtCreate":1651502244629,"gmtModify":1676534917086,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ji","listText":"ji","text":"ji","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063409412","repostId":"2232733784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2232733784","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1651449428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232733784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 07:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is there to worry about regarding shrinking balance sheet?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232733784","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"5月美联储议息会议召开在即，除去加息之外，很可能会公布关于美联储缩表的路径、方式等细节内容。那么，在疫情后时代的环境之下，美联储本轮缩表与上轮有何不同？又会怎样影响经济和资本市场？本报告对此进行展开分","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>With the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting approaching, in addition to rate hike, details regarding the path and methods of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet are likely to be released. So, in the post-pandemic era, how does the Federal Reserve's current shrinking balance sheet differ from the previous one? How will this affect the economy and capital markets? This report analyzes this.</b><b>summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time? First</b>In terms of the causes of monetary tightening, this round of rate hike shrinking balance sheet was mainly driven by inflation.<b>Secondly</b>From the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, apart from a few emerging market rate hike, major economies around the world did not show significant tightening. However, before this round of shrinking balance sheet, most central banks around the world accelerated the process of monetary tightening.<b>Third</b>Judging from the compatibility between the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the synergy between the two in this shrinking balance sheet is even higher.<b>Fourth</b>In terms of implementation methods, this round of shrinking balance sheet is mainly passive, but some unmatured MBS may be actively sold.<b>Fifth</b>Judging from the speed of shrinking balance sheet, the pace of progress in this round has accelerated significantly, and the interval between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may decrease from 22 months in the previous round to 2 months.<b>Sixth</b>In terms of intensity, the proportion of the target scale of this reduction in GDP has increased significantly compared to the previous round.<b>Seventh</b>From the perspective of preventing and responding to the impact of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve established a standing repurchase facility in advance to ensure ample market liquidity as much as possible.<b>in the end</b>In terms of the total scale of shrinking balance sheet, we estimate that this round of shrinking balance sheet will reach approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, far exceeding the previous round, and will last for about 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>How does shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b>There are three main transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rate levels.<b>On the one hand</b>, through<b>Reduce the size of reserves on the liability side</b>Reduce the money supply.<b>on the other hand</b>, through<b>Releasing policy signals and rebalancing asset portfolios</b>This approach drives up interest rates (prices). shrinking balance sheet will also push up short-term interest rates to some extent, while its effect on long-term interest rates will be more pronounced. We expect that this round of shrinking balance sheet will push up the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Bond by about 0.4 percentage points each year. although<b>shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels, but a liquidity crisis may not recur in the short term.</b>。<b>On the one hand</b>The market currently has high liquidity.<b>on the other hand</b>The Federal Reserve's establishment of new tools will effectively smooth out market liquidity fluctuations. However, during this shrinking balance sheet cycle, the Federal Reserve is likely to proactively sell its holdings of institutional MBS, which may further push up mortgage rates.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>Global asset landscape under balance sheet reduction</b>。<b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet had a significant impact on emerging markets, while the performance within developed economies diverged.</b>。 Looking at the sector performance of US stocks, information technology saw significant gains, while the consumer sector diverged markedly, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption. However, the performance of real estate, essential consumption, and utilities sectors gradually improved as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet progressed. In terms of global stock indices, US stocks stood out during the last shrinking balance sheet, while most other markets declined.<b>Risks in emerging markets have been released.</b>。 However, during this round of QE, emerging markets actually underperformed developed markets. Considering the outflow of funds from emerging markets this year, the stock index has already corrected, and the risks have been released to some extent. By the end of 2021, emerging market capital inflows totaled approximately $570 billion, less than half of the amount during the previous round of QE. Most emerging market economies have already implemented precautionary rate hike, therefore<b>The scale of further capital outflows may be relatively limited.</b>。 Historically, during the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet,<b>The interest rate differential between China and the United States narrowed first and then widened due to the misalignment of</b>Currently, an inverted interest rate differential between China and the US has emerged. We believe that domestically...<b>reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts</b>Represented<b>The room for monetary policy easing is constrained</b>，<b>Domestic bond market yields are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>。 In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar remains strong, which may give the rest of the world...<b>Major currencies</b>Bringing certain<b>Depreciation pressure</b>。 Currently, the rise in energy prices mainly comes from...<b>supply shock</b>Globally priced commodities, especially..., are likely to be unable to be suppressed by a rising dollar.<b>Prices of industrial products constrained by supply are likely to remain high.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1. What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time?</b></p><p>After several rounds of quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve officially announced shrinking balance sheet in 2017, which lasted until the end of 2019. Although it was one of the few shrinking balance sheet periods to refer to, this round of shrinking balance sheet is likely to be significantly different from the previous one.</p><p><b>Inflation triggers monetary tightening.</b>First, in terms of the reasons for the tightening of monetary policy, this round of rate hike shrinking balance sheet was mainly driven by inflation. Before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the US economy had entered a recovery phase, the manufacturing PMI remained stable above the expansion-contraction line, the unemployment rate hit a new low, the job market was generally good, and inflation had been fluctuating around 2%. Although the job market has improved in this round, since mid-2021, inflation in the United States has remained high and gradually climbed, reaching a new high since the Great Stagflation period, and there are currently no signs of peaking or declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7576a05bc1a949508d2d4248ed308199\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>rate hike took the lead to prevent any potential problems.</b>Secondly, from the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, apart from a few emerging market rate hike, major economies around the world did not show significant tightening. In the second half of 2021, as expectations of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve rose, emerging economies such as Russia and Brazil adopted precautionary rate hike to guard against the risks of currency depreciation and capital outflow. Since the beginning of this year, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has driven up energy prices, and in order to curb inflation,<b>Most central banks around the world have accelerated their monetary tightening process.</b>。 Multiple emerging market economies have seen a single rate hike of at least 50 basis points, and developed economies such as New Zealand, Canada, and South Korea have also joined the ranks of rate hike, indicating that the world has ushered in a new wave of rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3afd5e4e00c4fa8a1fc0f261bafc20c\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>shrinking balance sheet and rate hike cooperated closely.</b>Third, from the perspective of the compatibility of the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. Several rounds of quantitative easing caused the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand nearly fourfold on the eve of the last shrinking balance sheet compared to before the financial crisis. Excessive reserves prompted the Fed to attempt to...<b>Normalization of asset size</b>。 Meanwhile, due to the previous consecutive rate hike leading to persistently high the US Dollar Index and low inflation, shrinking balance sheet was, in a sense, used as a substitute for rate hike, which made the tightening approach...<b>More flexible</b>Relatively speaking, its impact on exchange rates and inflation is also less severe than that of rate hike. In contrast, the main purpose of this round of shrinking balance sheet is to cooperate with the rate hike approach.<b>Accelerate the curb of rising inflation</b>Reduce the size of balance sheets and reserves to recycle excess liquidity, especially<b>Pushing up long-term interest rates, thereby widening term spreads, creates conditions for sustained rate hike.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a89f02a52041679744bd5a198e62a4\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Mainly through passive shrinking balance sheet, with some actively sold.</b>Fourth, in terms of the implementation methods of shrinking balance sheet, the last round of shrinking balance sheet mainly involved passive shrinking balance sheet by reducing the reinvestment of maturing funds, rather than active shrinking balance sheet (selling unmatured securities in the market). However, according to the minutes of the March Federal Reserve interest rate meeting,<b>This round of shrinking balance sheet is primarily passive, but it may involve actively selling unmatured MBS.</b>On the one hand, officials at the March policy meeting believed that early repayment of MBS principal might be lower than the monthly limit in shrinking balance sheet. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond estimates that the average monthly early repayment of MBS is around 24-25 billion yuan, which is lower than the MBS reduction cap. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve expects its future portfolio to consist primarily of Treasury Bond, making it appropriate to consider actively selling MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc95bfdf73c74954b55706a9dcfc835e\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The speed of shrinking balance sheet has accelerated significantly.</b>Fifth, from the perspective of shrinking balance sheet' speed. The Federal Reserve has been in rate hike four times, and it took 22 months before it officially launched the last round of shrinking balance sheet. In the first month, the reduction targets were set at $6 billion in US Treasury Bond and $4 billion in MBS, and the quotas were increased by $6 billion and $4 billion respectively every three months. It took a year to reach the reduction ceiling of $30 billion in US Treasury bonds and $20 billion in MBS per month. After seven months, the Federal Reserve began lowering the shrinking balance sheet ceiling, first reducing the Treasury Bond and MBS caps to $15 billion and $20 billion respectively, and then lowering both caps to zero after three months. In terms of timing, the Federal Reserve has significantly accelerated the pace of this round of shrinking balance sheet. The time gap between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may be reduced to two months, and the reduction ceiling of $60 billion in US Treasury bonds and $35 billion in MBS per month may be reached as early as three months after the balance sheet reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeacdf4a12cb48feab3e4da6108ca8ea\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The intensity of shrinking balance sheet has increased.</b>Sixth, from the perspective of the intensity of shrinking balance sheet. During the last shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's target reduction amounted to a maximum of about 1.3% of the Fed's total assets and a maximum of about 0.24% of GDP. Although the upper limit of this reduction has been raised to $95 billion and the pace of reduction has accelerated significantly, the proportion of the target reduction to the Fed's total assets has not changed significantly, at approximately 1.1%, as the Fed's total assets have reached their highest level in history, while the proportion of the target reduction to GDP is approximately 0.41%, a significant increase compared to the previous round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560e37ba85754134b4140c53a89691a0\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of shrinking balance sheet should be addressed in advance.</b>Seventh, from the perspective of preventing and responding to the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The liquidity crisis was the main reason why the Federal Reserve terminated the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Following the financial crisis, in order to enhance the banking system's ability to withstand liquidity risks, the Federal Reserve raised regulatory requirements for liquid assets. In September 2019, due to the combined effects of shrinking balance sheet, tax payments, and Treasury Bond subscription payments, the overnight lending rate soared to 10%, and the Federal Funds rate also broke through the target upper limit to 2.3%, forcing the New York Federal Reserve to intervene in the overnight repo market for the first time in nearly a decade.<b>Liquidity shortages ultimately led to the Federal Reserve's exit from shrinking balance sheet.</b>。 This time, the Federal Reserve fully learned from the liquidity problems exposed by the previous round of balance sheet reduction, and established a standing repurchase facility in advance to ensure ample market liquidity as much as possible.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28895693a9c642b884a4f059e48857c4\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of the shrinking balance sheet far exceeds that of the previous round.</b>Finally, let's look at the total size of shrinking balance sheet. During the entire shrinking balance sheet cycle from 2017 to 2019, the Federal Reserve targeted a reduction of $755 billion, which actually reduced its total assets by about $650 billion, accounting for 15% of the Fed's total assets before shrinking balance sheet and about 3% of its GDP that year. Given the current ample reserves and relatively loose liquidity, the rate hike process will not repeat the same mistakes. However, if inflation is curbed in the future, the rate hike shrinking balance sheet process may end early. Based on the experience of the last round of shrinking balance sheet and recent statements by Federal Reserve officials, market liquidity is more appropriate when the reserve requirement ratio is 8% of nominal GDP. If the IMF predicts that the nominal GDP of the United States in 2023 will be 26.7 trillion US dollars, then the desired reserve size will be approximately 2.14 trillion US dollars. A rough estimate of the size of this round of shrinking balance sheet is 1.63 trillion US dollars, accounting for 18.2% of the existing total assets. The shrinking balance sheet will last for about 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/015d51beb2ab46118d5e35bb5a5d0535\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. How does shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b></p><p><b>There are three main transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rate levels.</b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion is a means of continuing to stimulate the economy by continuing to purchase medium- and long-term Treasury Bond, flattening the yield curve, and lowering long-term interest rates when short-term interest rates cannot break through the zero interest rate lower limit. And<b>shrinking balance sheet is essentially a reverse operation against balance sheet expansion. On the one hand</b>Reduce the money supply by reducing the size of reserves on the liability side.<b>on the other hand</b>This pushes up interest rates (prices) by releasing policy signals and rebalancing asset portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbd4846cec482586a5a0e39c382859\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Short-term interest rates will also rise.</b>rate hike primarily suppresses money demand by raising borrowing costs, while shrinking balance sheet directly pushes up short-term interest rates by influencing the money supply. If we exclude the impact of rate hike on short-term interest rates, shrinking balance sheet has actually contributed to the rise in short-term interest rates. Looking at the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the difference between the short-term Treasury Bond yield and the benchmark interest rate target changed significantly before and after the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, increasing by about 0.2 percentage points after balance sheet reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72012418d8eb40b08be2fba8a69e4ab9\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Long-term interest rates have risen significantly.</b>Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet primarily influences long-term interest rates through signals and portfolio rebalancing.<b>On the one hand</b>The Federal Reserve released signals of balance sheet normalization, provided forward guidance, changed yield curve expectations, and guided long-term interest rates upward.<b>on the other hand</b>The Federal Reserve's holdings of long-term assets are gradually decreasing, while the supply of long-term assets in the market is increasing, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. According to research by Bauer and Neely (2012), a change in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet of 1% of GDP will bring about a change in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of about 8 basis points. If shrinking balance sheet is at its largest, $95 billion, it is expected to push up the 10-year Treasury Bond yield by about 3.3 basis points per month, with an annual impact of about 0.4 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c641c1f98db4e30b518044ee16e8a80\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels.</b>The Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet will simultaneously reduce the size of both assets and liabilities. During the last round of Federal Reserve QE, reserves rose sharply to $2.5 trillion and remained near that level for a long time. Since the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the scale of reserves has dropped sharply to about $1.5 trillion, and the scale of overnight reverse repos has also decreased from $200 billion to 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824d93953e841968a3d250d0e23a38f\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis is unlikely to recur in the short term.</b>However, we believe that the risk of a liquidity crisis in this round of shrinking balance sheet is not high.<b>On the one hand</b>The market has high existing liquidity, with reserves remaining at around 4 trillion yuan and overnight reverse repos remaining at a high level of 1.6 trillion yuan, far exceeding the monthly shrinking balance sheet of $95 billion.<b>on the other hand</b>In 2021, the Federal Reserve set domestic and foreign repurchase facilities as standby facilities to provide liquidity to the market in a timely manner. The new tools will effectively smooth market liquidity fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef8931ddcdc54ed58a54093ca5ab1815\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Actively selling MBS may push up mortgage rates.</b>As the Federal Reserve accelerates its tightening of monetary policy, U.S. Treasury Bond yields across all maturities have risen, driving the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to break through 5%, a new high since 2011. Historically, rising mortgage rates will increase residents' home purchase costs, suppress purchase demand, and put pressure on the real estate market. During this shrinking balance sheet cycle, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to proactively sell its institutional MBS holdings, potentially further pushing up mortgage rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99c41fbe3b84095879c0adc27ed6667\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Global asset landscape under balance sheet reduction</b></p><p><b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet impacted emerging markets.</b>How will the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet affect the performance of major asset classes? Let's start by looking for clues from the last round of shrinking balance sheet. We divided the last round of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet process into three stages: the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet to six months, reaching the upper limit of tapering (one year), and the entire shrinking balance sheet period (lasting about two years), and calculated the return performance of various asset classes separately. We found that,<b>The last shrinking balance sheet had a significant impact on emerging markets, while a clear divergence emerged within developed economies.</b>With the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, commodity prices, which account for a higher proportion of demand in emerging markets, have fallen significantly, and emerging market indices have gradually adjusted. However, crude oil and stock indices, which account for a higher proportion of demand in developed economies, have performed relatively well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8da395bcf04d8792a296aa315b603b\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of industry performance, information technology saw significant growth, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption.</b>Overall, the information technology sector saw the most significant gains in the impact of the Federal Reserve's last round of shrinking balance sheet on the performance of various sectors in the US stock market. The consumer sector shows significant divergence, with discretionary consumption ranking among the top performers, while essential consumption lags behind. However, as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet process progresses, the performance of real estate, consumer staples, and public utilities has gradually improved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cf9c0220f14fd1a04ee998d7329dcd\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks stood out, while most other markets declined.</b>Major global stock markets fluctuated during the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, but the trends varied significantly. Among them, developed and emerging markets other than the United States were more severely impacted by shrinking balance sheet, showing a volatile downward trend. US stocks continued to rise and hit new highs in the year following the start of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet. Stock indices in various markets experienced a brief pullback/retracement from September 2018 to February 2019, after which their trends continued to diverge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fee8a5cf5d1402d914544119d798119\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risks in emerging markets have been released.</b>During the last round of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, funds flowed heavily to emerging markets, which boosted the performance of emerging market stock indices. Until 2013, when the Federal Reserve began to gradually tighten monetary policy, global funds flowed back, and developed economies performed better than emerging markets. However, when the Federal Reserve began shrinking balance sheet, funds from emerging markets flowed out further. However, during this round of QE, emerging markets actually underperformed developed markets. Although the pace of monetary tightening is relatively fast, with rate hike and shrinking balance sheet almost completely overlapping, considering the outflow of funds from emerging markets this year, the stock index has already corrected, and the risks have been released to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0387aaac6d684000a293b8abfe31ae00\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of capital inflows was less than half of the previous round.</b>During the last round of QE by the Federal Reserve, net inflows of funds into emerging market stocks and bonds amounted to approximately $1.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. During this round of QE, net inflows of funds into emerging market stocks and bonds totaled approximately $570 billion by the end of 2021, less than half of the previous round and accounting for only about 13% of the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. In addition,<b>Most emerging market economies have already implemented precautionary rate hike, so further capital outflows are likely to be relatively limited.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea99419ab1a44a0bc507c339e0f6c0d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond market interest rates are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>Historically, my country's Treasury Bond yields have mostly followed the trend of US Treasury yields. However, during the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the interest rate differential between the two countries narrowed because the Fed tightened monetary policy while China continued to maintain a relatively loose stance. In the later stages of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, due to a liquidity crisis in the market, the Fed began to cut interest rates and stopped shrinking balance sheet, which led to a decline in US Treasury yields and a further widening of the interest rate differential between China and the US. The interest rate differential between China and the United States has already inverted. With the rise in US Treasury yields, we believe that the room for domestic monetary policy easing, represented by reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, is constrained, making it easier for domestic bond market yields to rise than fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34509811861401da679c9d2b8fce9f6\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The US dollar remained strong, increasing pressure on the currency to depreciate.</b>The Federal Reserve's last round of shrinking balance sheet led to a marginal tightening of US monetary policy compared to the Eurozone, driving up the US Dollar Index. Overall, as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet continued, most currencies depreciated against the US dollar, with the decline gradually widening, but the Thai baht and Japanese yen performed relatively well during the last round of shrinking balance sheet. With the the US Dollar Index already exceeding 100, this round of shrinking balance sheet may put some depreciation pressure on major global currencies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f402c7ee3a74a64953d4aebd576d889\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Driven by supply shocks, prices are likely to remain high.</b>Energy commodities performed well in the first half of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, while non-ferrous metals, except for nickel, performed poorly. During the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, precious metals initially fell and then rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Corn and soybean prices diverged somewhat during the period. Currently, the rise in energy prices is mainly due to supply shocks and is unlikely to be suppressed by the rise in the US dollar. Globally priced commodities, especially industrial products that are constrained by supply, are likely to remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873be73c90154fa3aeebabbfb73560e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes may cause the economic recovery to fall short of expectations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is there to worry about regarding shrinking balance sheet?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is there to worry about regarding shrinking balance sheet?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-02 07:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>With the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting approaching, in addition to rate hike, details regarding the path and methods of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet are likely to be released. So, in the post-pandemic era, how does the Federal Reserve's current shrinking balance sheet differ from the previous one? How will this affect the economy and capital markets? This report analyzes this.</b><b>summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time? First</b>In terms of the causes of monetary tightening, this round of rate hike shrinking balance sheet was mainly driven by inflation.<b>Secondly</b>From the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, apart from a few emerging market rate hike, major economies around the world did not show significant tightening. However, before this round of shrinking balance sheet, most central banks around the world accelerated the process of monetary tightening.<b>Third</b>Judging from the compatibility between the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the synergy between the two in this shrinking balance sheet is even higher.<b>Fourth</b>In terms of implementation methods, this round of shrinking balance sheet is mainly passive, but some unmatured MBS may be actively sold.<b>Fifth</b>Judging from the speed of shrinking balance sheet, the pace of progress in this round has accelerated significantly, and the interval between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may decrease from 22 months in the previous round to 2 months.<b>Sixth</b>In terms of intensity, the proportion of the target scale of this reduction in GDP has increased significantly compared to the previous round.<b>Seventh</b>From the perspective of preventing and responding to the impact of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve established a standing repurchase facility in advance to ensure ample market liquidity as much as possible.<b>in the end</b>In terms of the total scale of shrinking balance sheet, we estimate that this round of shrinking balance sheet will reach approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, far exceeding the previous round, and will last for about 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>How does shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b>There are three main transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rate levels.<b>On the one hand</b>, through<b>Reduce the size of reserves on the liability side</b>Reduce the money supply.<b>on the other hand</b>, through<b>Releasing policy signals and rebalancing asset portfolios</b>This approach drives up interest rates (prices). shrinking balance sheet will also push up short-term interest rates to some extent, while its effect on long-term interest rates will be more pronounced. We expect that this round of shrinking balance sheet will push up the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Bond by about 0.4 percentage points each year. although<b>shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels, but a liquidity crisis may not recur in the short term.</b>。<b>On the one hand</b>The market currently has high liquidity.<b>on the other hand</b>The Federal Reserve's establishment of new tools will effectively smooth out market liquidity fluctuations. However, during this shrinking balance sheet cycle, the Federal Reserve is likely to proactively sell its holdings of institutional MBS, which may further push up mortgage rates.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>Global asset landscape under balance sheet reduction</b>。<b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet had a significant impact on emerging markets, while the performance within developed economies diverged.</b>。 Looking at the sector performance of US stocks, information technology saw significant gains, while the consumer sector diverged markedly, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption. However, the performance of real estate, essential consumption, and utilities sectors gradually improved as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet progressed. In terms of global stock indices, US stocks stood out during the last shrinking balance sheet, while most other markets declined.<b>Risks in emerging markets have been released.</b>。 However, during this round of QE, emerging markets actually underperformed developed markets. Considering the outflow of funds from emerging markets this year, the stock index has already corrected, and the risks have been released to some extent. By the end of 2021, emerging market capital inflows totaled approximately $570 billion, less than half of the amount during the previous round of QE. Most emerging market economies have already implemented precautionary rate hike, therefore<b>The scale of further capital outflows may be relatively limited.</b>。 Historically, during the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet,<b>The interest rate differential between China and the United States narrowed first and then widened due to the misalignment of</b>Currently, an inverted interest rate differential between China and the US has emerged. We believe that domestically...<b>reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts</b>Represented<b>The room for monetary policy easing is constrained</b>，<b>Domestic bond market yields are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>。 In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar remains strong, which may give the rest of the world...<b>Major currencies</b>Bringing certain<b>Depreciation pressure</b>。 Currently, the rise in energy prices mainly comes from...<b>supply shock</b>Globally priced commodities, especially..., are likely to be unable to be suppressed by a rising dollar.<b>Prices of industrial products constrained by supply are likely to remain high.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1. What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time?</b></p><p>After several rounds of quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve officially announced shrinking balance sheet in 2017, which lasted until the end of 2019. Although it was one of the few shrinking balance sheet periods to refer to, this round of shrinking balance sheet is likely to be significantly different from the previous one.</p><p><b>Inflation triggers monetary tightening.</b>First, in terms of the reasons for the tightening of monetary policy, this round of rate hike shrinking balance sheet was mainly driven by inflation. Before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the US economy had entered a recovery phase, the manufacturing PMI remained stable above the expansion-contraction line, the unemployment rate hit a new low, the job market was generally good, and inflation had been fluctuating around 2%. Although the job market has improved in this round, since mid-2021, inflation in the United States has remained high and gradually climbed, reaching a new high since the Great Stagflation period, and there are currently no signs of peaking or declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7576a05bc1a949508d2d4248ed308199\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>rate hike took the lead to prevent any potential problems.</b>Secondly, from the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, apart from a few emerging market rate hike, major economies around the world did not show significant tightening. In the second half of 2021, as expectations of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve rose, emerging economies such as Russia and Brazil adopted precautionary rate hike to guard against the risks of currency depreciation and capital outflow. Since the beginning of this year, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has driven up energy prices, and in order to curb inflation,<b>Most central banks around the world have accelerated their monetary tightening process.</b>。 Multiple emerging market economies have seen a single rate hike of at least 50 basis points, and developed economies such as New Zealand, Canada, and South Korea have also joined the ranks of rate hike, indicating that the world has ushered in a new wave of rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3afd5e4e00c4fa8a1fc0f261bafc20c\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>shrinking balance sheet and rate hike cooperated closely.</b>Third, from the perspective of the compatibility of the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. Several rounds of quantitative easing caused the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand nearly fourfold on the eve of the last shrinking balance sheet compared to before the financial crisis. Excessive reserves prompted the Fed to attempt to...<b>Normalization of asset size</b>。 Meanwhile, due to the previous consecutive rate hike leading to persistently high the US Dollar Index and low inflation, shrinking balance sheet was, in a sense, used as a substitute for rate hike, which made the tightening approach...<b>More flexible</b>Relatively speaking, its impact on exchange rates and inflation is also less severe than that of rate hike. In contrast, the main purpose of this round of shrinking balance sheet is to cooperate with the rate hike approach.<b>Accelerate the curb of rising inflation</b>Reduce the size of balance sheets and reserves to recycle excess liquidity, especially<b>Pushing up long-term interest rates, thereby widening term spreads, creates conditions for sustained rate hike.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a89f02a52041679744bd5a198e62a4\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Mainly through passive shrinking balance sheet, with some actively sold.</b>Fourth, in terms of the implementation methods of shrinking balance sheet, the last round of shrinking balance sheet mainly involved passive shrinking balance sheet by reducing the reinvestment of maturing funds, rather than active shrinking balance sheet (selling unmatured securities in the market). However, according to the minutes of the March Federal Reserve interest rate meeting,<b>This round of shrinking balance sheet is primarily passive, but it may involve actively selling unmatured MBS.</b>On the one hand, officials at the March policy meeting believed that early repayment of MBS principal might be lower than the monthly limit in shrinking balance sheet. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond estimates that the average monthly early repayment of MBS is around 24-25 billion yuan, which is lower than the MBS reduction cap. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve expects its future portfolio to consist primarily of Treasury Bond, making it appropriate to consider actively selling MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc95bfdf73c74954b55706a9dcfc835e\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The speed of shrinking balance sheet has accelerated significantly.</b>Fifth, from the perspective of shrinking balance sheet' speed. The Federal Reserve has been in rate hike four times, and it took 22 months before it officially launched the last round of shrinking balance sheet. In the first month, the reduction targets were set at $6 billion in US Treasury Bond and $4 billion in MBS, and the quotas were increased by $6 billion and $4 billion respectively every three months. It took a year to reach the reduction ceiling of $30 billion in US Treasury bonds and $20 billion in MBS per month. After seven months, the Federal Reserve began lowering the shrinking balance sheet ceiling, first reducing the Treasury Bond and MBS caps to $15 billion and $20 billion respectively, and then lowering both caps to zero after three months. In terms of timing, the Federal Reserve has significantly accelerated the pace of this round of shrinking balance sheet. The time gap between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may be reduced to two months, and the reduction ceiling of $60 billion in US Treasury bonds and $35 billion in MBS per month may be reached as early as three months after the balance sheet reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeacdf4a12cb48feab3e4da6108ca8ea\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The intensity of shrinking balance sheet has increased.</b>Sixth, from the perspective of the intensity of shrinking balance sheet. During the last shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's target reduction amounted to a maximum of about 1.3% of the Fed's total assets and a maximum of about 0.24% of GDP. Although the upper limit of this reduction has been raised to $95 billion and the pace of reduction has accelerated significantly, the proportion of the target reduction to the Fed's total assets has not changed significantly, at approximately 1.1%, as the Fed's total assets have reached their highest level in history, while the proportion of the target reduction to GDP is approximately 0.41%, a significant increase compared to the previous round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560e37ba85754134b4140c53a89691a0\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of shrinking balance sheet should be addressed in advance.</b>Seventh, from the perspective of preventing and responding to the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The liquidity crisis was the main reason why the Federal Reserve terminated the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Following the financial crisis, in order to enhance the banking system's ability to withstand liquidity risks, the Federal Reserve raised regulatory requirements for liquid assets. In September 2019, due to the combined effects of shrinking balance sheet, tax payments, and Treasury Bond subscription payments, the overnight lending rate soared to 10%, and the Federal Funds rate also broke through the target upper limit to 2.3%, forcing the New York Federal Reserve to intervene in the overnight repo market for the first time in nearly a decade.<b>Liquidity shortages ultimately led to the Federal Reserve's exit from shrinking balance sheet.</b>。 This time, the Federal Reserve fully learned from the liquidity problems exposed by the previous round of balance sheet reduction, and established a standing repurchase facility in advance to ensure ample market liquidity as much as possible.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28895693a9c642b884a4f059e48857c4\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of the shrinking balance sheet far exceeds that of the previous round.</b>Finally, let's look at the total size of shrinking balance sheet. During the entire shrinking balance sheet cycle from 2017 to 2019, the Federal Reserve targeted a reduction of $755 billion, which actually reduced its total assets by about $650 billion, accounting for 15% of the Fed's total assets before shrinking balance sheet and about 3% of its GDP that year. Given the current ample reserves and relatively loose liquidity, the rate hike process will not repeat the same mistakes. However, if inflation is curbed in the future, the rate hike shrinking balance sheet process may end early. Based on the experience of the last round of shrinking balance sheet and recent statements by Federal Reserve officials, market liquidity is more appropriate when the reserve requirement ratio is 8% of nominal GDP. If the IMF predicts that the nominal GDP of the United States in 2023 will be 26.7 trillion US dollars, then the desired reserve size will be approximately 2.14 trillion US dollars. A rough estimate of the size of this round of shrinking balance sheet is 1.63 trillion US dollars, accounting for 18.2% of the existing total assets. The shrinking balance sheet will last for about 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/015d51beb2ab46118d5e35bb5a5d0535\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. How does shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b></p><p><b>There are three main transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rate levels.</b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion is a means of continuing to stimulate the economy by continuing to purchase medium- and long-term Treasury Bond, flattening the yield curve, and lowering long-term interest rates when short-term interest rates cannot break through the zero interest rate lower limit. And<b>shrinking balance sheet is essentially a reverse operation against balance sheet expansion. On the one hand</b>Reduce the money supply by reducing the size of reserves on the liability side.<b>on the other hand</b>This pushes up interest rates (prices) by releasing policy signals and rebalancing asset portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbd4846cec482586a5a0e39c382859\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Short-term interest rates will also rise.</b>rate hike primarily suppresses money demand by raising borrowing costs, while shrinking balance sheet directly pushes up short-term interest rates by influencing the money supply. If we exclude the impact of rate hike on short-term interest rates, shrinking balance sheet has actually contributed to the rise in short-term interest rates. Looking at the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the difference between the short-term Treasury Bond yield and the benchmark interest rate target changed significantly before and after the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, increasing by about 0.2 percentage points after balance sheet reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72012418d8eb40b08be2fba8a69e4ab9\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Long-term interest rates have risen significantly.</b>Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet primarily influences long-term interest rates through signals and portfolio rebalancing.<b>On the one hand</b>The Federal Reserve released signals of balance sheet normalization, provided forward guidance, changed yield curve expectations, and guided long-term interest rates upward.<b>on the other hand</b>The Federal Reserve's holdings of long-term assets are gradually decreasing, while the supply of long-term assets in the market is increasing, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. According to research by Bauer and Neely (2012), a change in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet of 1% of GDP will bring about a change in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of about 8 basis points. If shrinking balance sheet is at its largest, $95 billion, it is expected to push up the 10-year Treasury Bond yield by about 3.3 basis points per month, with an annual impact of about 0.4 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c641c1f98db4e30b518044ee16e8a80\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels.</b>The Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet will simultaneously reduce the size of both assets and liabilities. During the last round of Federal Reserve QE, reserves rose sharply to $2.5 trillion and remained near that level for a long time. Since the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the scale of reserves has dropped sharply to about $1.5 trillion, and the scale of overnight reverse repos has also decreased from $200 billion to 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824d93953e841968a3d250d0e23a38f\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis is unlikely to recur in the short term.</b>However, we believe that the risk of a liquidity crisis in this round of shrinking balance sheet is not high.<b>On the one hand</b>The market has high existing liquidity, with reserves remaining at around 4 trillion yuan and overnight reverse repos remaining at a high level of 1.6 trillion yuan, far exceeding the monthly shrinking balance sheet of $95 billion.<b>on the other hand</b>In 2021, the Federal Reserve set domestic and foreign repurchase facilities as standby facilities to provide liquidity to the market in a timely manner. The new tools will effectively smooth market liquidity fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef8931ddcdc54ed58a54093ca5ab1815\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Actively selling MBS may push up mortgage rates.</b>As the Federal Reserve accelerates its tightening of monetary policy, U.S. Treasury Bond yields across all maturities have risen, driving the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to break through 5%, a new high since 2011. Historically, rising mortgage rates will increase residents' home purchase costs, suppress purchase demand, and put pressure on the real estate market. During this shrinking balance sheet cycle, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to proactively sell its institutional MBS holdings, potentially further pushing up mortgage rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99c41fbe3b84095879c0adc27ed6667\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Global asset landscape under balance sheet reduction</b></p><p><b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet impacted emerging markets.</b>How will the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet affect the performance of major asset classes? Let's start by looking for clues from the last round of shrinking balance sheet. We divided the last round of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet process into three stages: the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet to six months, reaching the upper limit of tapering (one year), and the entire shrinking balance sheet period (lasting about two years), and calculated the return performance of various asset classes separately. We found that,<b>The last shrinking balance sheet had a significant impact on emerging markets, while a clear divergence emerged within developed economies.</b>With the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, commodity prices, which account for a higher proportion of demand in emerging markets, have fallen significantly, and emerging market indices have gradually adjusted. However, crude oil and stock indices, which account for a higher proportion of demand in developed economies, have performed relatively well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8da395bcf04d8792a296aa315b603b\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of industry performance, information technology saw significant growth, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption.</b>Overall, the information technology sector saw the most significant gains in the impact of the Federal Reserve's last round of shrinking balance sheet on the performance of various sectors in the US stock market. The consumer sector shows significant divergence, with discretionary consumption ranking among the top performers, while essential consumption lags behind. However, as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet process progresses, the performance of real estate, consumer staples, and public utilities has gradually improved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cf9c0220f14fd1a04ee998d7329dcd\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks stood out, while most other markets declined.</b>Major global stock markets fluctuated during the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, but the trends varied significantly. Among them, developed and emerging markets other than the United States were more severely impacted by shrinking balance sheet, showing a volatile downward trend. US stocks continued to rise and hit new highs in the year following the start of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet. Stock indices in various markets experienced a brief pullback/retracement from September 2018 to February 2019, after which their trends continued to diverge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fee8a5cf5d1402d914544119d798119\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risks in emerging markets have been released.</b>During the last round of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, funds flowed heavily to emerging markets, which boosted the performance of emerging market stock indices. Until 2013, when the Federal Reserve began to gradually tighten monetary policy, global funds flowed back, and developed economies performed better than emerging markets. However, when the Federal Reserve began shrinking balance sheet, funds from emerging markets flowed out further. However, during this round of QE, emerging markets actually underperformed developed markets. Although the pace of monetary tightening is relatively fast, with rate hike and shrinking balance sheet almost completely overlapping, considering the outflow of funds from emerging markets this year, the stock index has already corrected, and the risks have been released to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0387aaac6d684000a293b8abfe31ae00\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of capital inflows was less than half of the previous round.</b>During the last round of QE by the Federal Reserve, net inflows of funds into emerging market stocks and bonds amounted to approximately $1.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. During this round of QE, net inflows of funds into emerging market stocks and bonds totaled approximately $570 billion by the end of 2021, less than half of the previous round and accounting for only about 13% of the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. In addition,<b>Most emerging market economies have already implemented precautionary rate hike, so further capital outflows are likely to be relatively limited.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea99419ab1a44a0bc507c339e0f6c0d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond market interest rates are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>Historically, my country's Treasury Bond yields have mostly followed the trend of US Treasury yields. However, during the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the interest rate differential between the two countries narrowed because the Fed tightened monetary policy while China continued to maintain a relatively loose stance. In the later stages of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, due to a liquidity crisis in the market, the Fed began to cut interest rates and stopped shrinking balance sheet, which led to a decline in US Treasury yields and a further widening of the interest rate differential between China and the US. The interest rate differential between China and the United States has already inverted. With the rise in US Treasury yields, we believe that the room for domestic monetary policy easing, represented by reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, is constrained, making it easier for domestic bond market yields to rise than fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34509811861401da679c9d2b8fce9f6\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The US dollar remained strong, increasing pressure on the currency to depreciate.</b>The Federal Reserve's last round of shrinking balance sheet led to a marginal tightening of US monetary policy compared to the Eurozone, driving up the US Dollar Index. Overall, as the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet continued, most currencies depreciated against the US dollar, with the decline gradually widening, but the Thai baht and Japanese yen performed relatively well during the last round of shrinking balance sheet. With the the US Dollar Index already exceeding 100, this round of shrinking balance sheet may put some depreciation pressure on major global currencies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f402c7ee3a74a64953d4aebd576d889\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Driven by supply shocks, prices are likely to remain high.</b>Energy commodities performed well in the first half of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, while non-ferrous metals, except for nickel, performed poorly. During the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, precious metals initially fell and then rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Corn and soybean prices diverged somewhat during the period. Currently, the rise in energy prices is mainly due to supply shocks and is unlikely to be suppressed by the rise in the US dollar. Globally priced commodities, especially industrial products that are constrained by supply, are likely to remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873be73c90154fa3aeebabbfb73560e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes may cause the economic recovery to fall short of expectations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fca69a364eb1ccaf6e9078f1721480","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2232733784","content_text":"5月美联储议息会议召开在即，除去加息之外，很可能会公布关于美联储缩表的路径、方式等细节内容。那么，在疫情后时代的环境之下，美联储本轮缩表与上轮有何不同？又会怎样影响经济和资本市场？本报告对此进行展开分析。概要这次缩表有什么不一样？首先，从货币收紧的成因上来看，本轮加息缩表主要受到通胀的推动。其次，从全球货币政策的动向上来看，上轮缩表前，除个别新兴市场加息外，全球主要经济体未见明显收紧，而本轮缩表前，全球多数央行都加快了货币收紧进程。第三，从加息和缩表两种货币政策收紧方式的配合性上来看，本次缩表两者协同性更高。第四，从实施方式上来看，本轮缩表方式以被动为主，但或主动出售部分未到期的MBS。第五，从缩表的速度上来看，本轮推进节奏明显加快，加息与缩表间隔或由上轮的22个月降至2个月。第六，从强度上来看，本次缩减的目标规模占GDP比重相较上轮明显提升。第七，从缩表影响的预防应对上来看，本次联储提前设立常备回购便利工具，尽可能保证市场流动性的充裕。最后，从缩表的总规模上来看，我们估算，本轮缩表约达1.63万亿，也远超上轮，并持续约18个月至2023年底结束。缩表如何影响流动性环境？美联储缩表对利率水平的影响存在三大传导路径。一方面，通过降低负债端的准备金规模减少货币供给（量）。另一方面，通过释放政策信号与资产组合再平衡的途径推高利率水平（价）。缩表对于短端利率也会有一定推升，而在长端利率上的作用效果更为明显，我们预计，本轮缩表每年约推升十年期美国国债收益率0.4个百分点。虽然缩表将显著降低流动性水平，但流动性危机短期或不会再现。一方面，市场现存流动性较高。另一方面，美联储设立新工具将有效平滑市场流动性波动。不过，在本轮缩表周期中，美联储大概率将主动出售其持有的机构MBS，或进一步推高抵押贷款利率。缩表下的全球资产变局。上轮缩表对新兴市场冲击较大，发达经济体内部表现则有所分化。从美股的行业表现上来看，信息技术涨幅明显，消费板块显著分化，可选消费好于必选，不过房地产、必选消费和公共事业的板块表现则随着美联储缩表的推进而逐步改善。全球股指方面，上轮缩表时期美股一枝独秀，而其它市场多数下行。新兴市场风险已有释放。不过，本轮QE期间，新兴市场表现事实上不及发达市场。考虑到新兴市场今年以来资金有所流出，股指已经回调，风险已有一定释放。截至2021年底新兴市场资金流入约5700亿美元，不足上轮QE期间的一半。多数新兴市场经济体已经进行了预防性加息，因而资本进一步外流的规模可能相对有限。从历史经验来看，上轮美联储缩表期间，中美利差因货币政策错位先收窄后扩大，当前中美利差倒挂已然出现，我们认为，国内以降准降息为代表的货币政策宽松空间受制，国内债市收益率水平易上难下。汇率方面，美元维持强势，或给全球其它主要货币带来一定的贬值压力。目前来看，能源价格的上行主要来自供给冲击，很可能难以被美元走高所压制，全球定价的大宗商品，特别是受到供给约束的工业品，价格或将居高不下。1、这次缩表有什么不一样？在经历过几轮QE之后，2017年美联储正式宣布缩表，直至2019年结束，虽然其作为少数可供参照的缩表时期，但是，本轮缩表很可能与上一轮存在较大的不同。通胀引发货币收紧。首先，从货币政策收紧的成因上来看，本轮加息缩表主要受到通胀的推动。上轮缩表前，美国经济已经步入复苏通道，制造业PMI稳定在荣枯线以上，失业率也创新低，就业市场整体良好，通胀水平一直以来在2%附近波动。而本轮就业市场虽也存在改善，但自2021年年中以来，美国通胀持续高企并逐步攀升，创下自大滞胀时期以来的新高，并且目前尚未出现见顶回落的迹象。加息抢跑防患未然。其次，从全球货币政策的动向上来看，上轮缩表前，除个别新兴市场加息外，全球主要经济体未见明显收紧。而2021年下半年，随着美联储货币收紧预期上升，俄罗斯、巴西等新兴经济体先后采取预防性加息，防范汇率贬值、资本外流风险。今年以来，俄乌危机推动能源价格高企，为了抑制通胀，全球多数央行都加快了货币收紧进程。多个新兴市场经济体单次加息至少50个基点，新西兰、加拿大、韩国等发达经济体也进入加息队列，全球已经迎来新一轮加息潮。缩表加息紧密配合。第三，从加息和缩表两种货币政策收紧方式的配合性上来看。持续几轮的量化宽松使得美联储资产负债表规模在上一轮缩表前夕，较金融危机发生前扩大近4倍，准备金过度宽裕令美联储试图将总资产规模正常化。同时，由于此前连续加息导致美元指数居高不下，通胀水平低位徘徊，当时在某种意义上，其实是以缩表作为加息的替代手段，这使得收紧方式上更加灵活，相对而言对于汇率和通胀的影响也比加息更为缓和。而反观本轮缩表，其主要目的在于配合加息这一方式，加快抑制通胀上行，缩减资产负债表和准备金规模回收过剩的流动性，特别是推高长端利率进而扩大期限利差，为持续加息创造条件。被动缩表为主，部分主动出售。第四，从缩表的实施方式上来看，上轮缩表主要是通过减少到期资金再投资的方式来进行的被动缩表，而并没有采取主动缩表（在市场上出售尚未到期的持有证券）的形式。不过，根据3月美联储议息会议纪要，本轮缩表方式以被动为主，但或主动出售未到期的MBS。一方面，3月议息会议上与会官员认为，MBS本金提前还款可能会低于缩表的每月上限。纽约联储和里士满联储研究估算，MBS提前偿还月均规模约在240-250亿左右，低于MBS缩减上限。另一方面，联储预计未来持有资产组合应主要由国债构成，考虑主动出售MBS是合适的。缩表速度明显加快。第五，从缩表的速度上来看。美联储在加息已达四次，历经22个月后才正式启动上轮缩表，首月缩减目标定为60亿的美国国债与40亿的MBS，并每三个月分别提高60亿和40亿额度，历时一年达到每月300亿美债及200亿MBS的缩减上限。在持续7个月后，美联储开始降低缩表上限，首次将国债和MBS上限分别降至150亿和200亿额度，再历经3个月后将二者上限降为零。而本轮缩表从时间上来看，美联储推进节奏明显加快，加息与缩表时间间隔或降至2个月，且最快或于缩表后3个月就达到每月600亿美债及350亿MBS的缩减上限。缩表强度有所提升。第六，从缩表的强度上来看。上次缩表过程中，美联储目标缩减规模占联储总资产比重最高约1.3%，占GDP比重最高约0.24%。尽管本次缩减上限提升至950亿美元且缩减速度大幅提升，但由于目前美联储达到历史最高规模的总资产，目标缩减规模占联储总资产比重未见明显变化，约为1.1%，而目标缩减规模占GDP比重约为0.41%，相较上轮明显提升。缩表影响提前应对。第七，从缩表影响的预防应对上来看。流动性危机是美联储终止上轮缩表进程的主要原因。金融危机后，为增强银行系统抵御流动性风险的能力，美联储在监管方面提高了对流动性资产的要求。2019年9月，由于缩表、缴税和国债认购缴款三重因素叠加，隔夜拆借利率一度飙升至10％，联邦基金利率也一度突破目标上限升至2.3%，迫使纽约联储近十年来首次出手干预隔夜回购市场，流动性短缺最终导致美联储退出缩表。本次联储充分吸取上轮缩表所暴露出的流动性问题，提前设立常备回购便利工具，尽可能保证市场流动性的充裕。缩表规模远超上轮。最后，从缩表的总规模上来看。在2017年-2019年整个缩表周期中，联储目标缩减规模为7550亿美元，实际缩减了约6500亿美元的总资产，占缩表前美联储总资产规模的15%，占当年GDP规模约3%。考虑到目前准备金充足，流动性较为宽松，本次加息进程不会因此重蹈覆辙。但未来若通胀势头有所遏制，加息缩表进程或也不排除提前结束。参照上轮缩表经验以及近期联储官员发言，准备金规模占名义GDP比例为8%时，市场流动性较为合适。若按IMF预测美国2023年名义GDP为26.7万亿，则合意准备金规模约为2.14万亿美元，粗略估算本轮缩表规模1.63万亿，占现有总资产规模的18.2%，缩表持续约18个月至2023年底结束。2、缩表如何影响流动性环境？美联储缩表对利率水平的影响存在三大传导路径。美联储资产负债表的扩张是在短期利率无法突破0利率下限约束的情况下，通过继续购买中长期国债，释放流动性并压平收益率曲线，降低长期限利率水平，从而达到继续刺激经济的手段。而缩表本质上是对扩表的逆向操作。一方面，通过降低负债端的准备金规模减少货币供给（量）。另一方面，通过释放政策信号与资产组合再平衡的途径推高利率水平（价）。短端利率也会上行。加息主要通过提高资金借贷成本来抑制货币需求，而缩表则直接通过影响货币供给进而推升短端利率。如果剔除加息对短端利率的影响后来看，缩表对短期利率推升事实上也有一定贡献。从上一轮缩表时期来看，短期国债收益率与基准利率目标的差值在美联储缩表前后变化明显，缩表后提高约0.2个百分点。长端利率明显推升。美联储缩表主要通过信号和资产组合再平衡途径影响长端利率。一方面，美联储释放资产负债表正常化信号，进行前瞻指引，改变收益率曲线预期，引导长端利率上行。另一方面，美联储持有长久期资产逐步下降，市场长久期资产供给上升，从而推高长端利率水平。根据Bauer and Neely（2012）的研究发现，GDP规模1%的美联储资产负债表变动将带来十年期国债收益率的变化约8bp，若按照缩表950亿美元的最大规模，预计每月将推升十年期国债收益率约3.3bp，每年的影响大约有0.4个百分点之多。美联储缩表将显著降低流动性水平。美联储缩表将同时使得资产和负债端规模有所下降。上轮美联储QE期间，准备金规模大幅上升至2.5万亿美元，并长期维持在这一水平附近。而上一轮缩表开始后，准备金规模大幅下降至约1.5万亿美元左右，隔夜逆回购规模也由2000亿美元降至0。流动性危机短期或不会再现。不过，我们认为，本轮缩表发生流动性危机的风险不高。一方面，市场现存流动性较高，准备金规模保持在4万亿左右的水平，隔夜逆回购规模也维持在1.6万亿的较高水平，远高于每月950亿美元的缩表规模。另一方面，美联储于2021年将国内和国外回购便利设立为常备，用于及时向市场提供流动性，新工具将有效平滑市场流动性波动。主动出售MBS或将推高房贷利率。随着美联储加速收紧货币政策，美国各期限国债收益率均有上升，带动30年期固定抵押贷款利率升破5%，创2011年以来新高。从历史数据来看，房贷利率抬升将提高居民购房成本，抑制购买需求，使房地产市场承压。本轮缩表周期中，美联储大概率将主动出售其持有的机构MBS，或进一步推高抵押贷款利率。3、缩表下的全球资产变局上轮缩表冲击新兴市场。美联储缩表对于大类资产表现会有怎样的影响？我们不妨先从上轮缩表中寻找线索。我们把上一轮美联储缩表过程划分为缩表开始至半年、达到缩减上限（一年）和整个缩表时期（时长约两年）三个阶段，并分别计算各类资产的收益表现。我们发现，上次缩表对于新兴市场的冲击较大，发达经济体内部则出现比较明显的分化。随着美联储缩表的进行，新兴市场需求占比更高的大宗商品价格明显回落，新兴市场指数也逐步调整，但发达经济体需求占比更高的原油和股指表现相对较好。从行业表现上来看，信息技术涨幅明显，可选消费好于必选。美联储上一轮缩表对于美股各行业表现的影响，整体来看，以信息技术行业涨幅最为突出。而消费板块存在显著分化，可选消费表现名列前茅，但必选消费则相对落后。不过，随着美联储缩表进程的推进，房地产、必选消费和公共事业表现则逐步改善。美股一枝独秀，其它市场多数下行。全球主要市场股市在上一轮美联储缩表期间呈现震荡态势，但走势上差异较大。其中，除美国以外的发达市场和新兴市场受到缩表冲击更大，呈现出震荡下行走势。而美股在美联储缩表开始后的一年时间内保持上行并创新高。各市场股指在2018年9月至2019年2月均出现短暂回撤，随后走势继续分化。新兴市场风险已有释放。上一轮美联储资产负债表扩张期间，资金大举流向新兴市场，推高了新兴市场的股指表现，直到2013年美联储开始逐步收紧货币政策，全球资金形成回流，发达经济体市场表现较新兴市场更好，而当美联储开始缩表，新兴市场资金进一步流出。不过，本轮QE期间，新兴市场表现事实上不及发达市场。虽然本次货币收紧节奏较快，加息缩表近乎完全重叠，但考虑到新兴市场今年以来资金有所流出，股指已经回调，风险已有一定释放。资金流入规模不足上轮一半。在上轮美联储QE期间，新兴市场股债资金净流入约1.3万亿美元，约占美联储资产负债表变动规模近60%。而本轮QE期间，截至2021年底新兴市场股债资金净流入约5700亿美元，不足上轮的一半，且仅占美联储资产负债表变动规模约13%。此外，多数新兴市场经济体已经进行了预防性加息，因而资本进一步外流的规模可能相对有限。债市利率易上难下。从历史表现上来看，我国国债收益率多数情况下和美债收益率走势一致。但在上轮美联储缩表期间，由于美联储收紧货币，而国内继续保持偏宽松的状态，导致两国利差收窄。上轮美联储缩表后期，由于市场出现流动性危机，美联储开始降息并停止缩表，带动美债收益率下行，中美利差再度扩大。当前中美利差倒挂已然出现，随着美债收益率水平的抬升，我们认为，国内以降准降息为代表的货币政策宽松空间受制，国内债市收益率水平易上难下。美元维持强势，汇率贬值压力加大。上轮美联储实施缩表使得美国货币政策较欧元区边际收紧，推动美元指数上行。总体来看，随着美联储缩表的不断进行，多数货币较美元贬值，跌幅逐步扩大，但上轮缩表期间泰铢和日元的表现相对较好。而目前美元指数已经超过100，这轮缩表或给全球主要货币都会带来一定的贬值压力。供给冲击主导，价格恐居高不下。能源商品在上轮美联储缩表的前中期表现较好，有色金属中除镍以外，均表现较差。而在上轮美联储的整个缩表期间，贵金属呈现先跌后升的局面。农产品中，玉米和大豆走势有所分化。当前来看，能源价格的上行主要来自供给冲击，很可能难以被美元走高所压制，全球定价的大宗商品，特别是受到供给约束的工业品，价格或将居高不下。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060202957,"gmtCreate":1651150342522,"gmtModify":1676534858974,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060202957","repostId":"1147036890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}