Teong personal page - To The Moon

Teong

Teong

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08-01

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ $250 above

07-11

$中国移动(600941)$ 🐮🐮🐮

06-17

$黄金主连 2408(GCmain)$

2023-12-29

At least $5500 in January 2024!!!

2023-03-22

[呆住]

@FundMall:Tiger Vault| A Good Alternative to Bank Deposits?

2023-03-22

[微笑]

@OptionsDelta:If you win $10 million in the lottery, will you continue spend $5 million on the lottery?

2023-03-22

[得意]

@Capital_Insights:Banking Crisis is Over? Impact to Economy & Central Banks

2023-03-16

[开心]

美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%

2023-03-16

[微笑] [微笑]

国际油价跌幅扩大至5%，刷新2021年12月以来最低位

2023-03-16

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-14

[微笑]

“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”，美国银行股集体暴跌

2023-03-13

[微笑]

Carrier to Present at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference

2023-03-13

[微笑]

JPMorgan among suitors for SVB Financial in deal excluding SVB Bank- Axios

2023-03-13

[微笑]

Apple CEO Cook orders mixed-reality headset launch despite designers’ warning

2023-03-13

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-13

[微笑]

超百亿大动作！3000亿光伏茅刚宣布

2023-03-07

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-05

[微笑]

从狂飙到集体失速，云计算换挡寻出路

2023-03-05

[微笑]

Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%

2023-03-05

[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

无解的美国债务

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/600941\">$中国移动(600941)$</a> 🐮🐮🐮","text":"$中国移动(600941)$ 🐮🐮🐮","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6e40326c20bb5be70973db2e1a84e467","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326356738592832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317608548426032,"gmtCreate":1718580275579,"gmtModify":1718580277311,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2408(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2408(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$黄金主连 2408(GCmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317608548426032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257029845598224,"gmtCreate":1703785441797,"gmtModify":1703785446510,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least $5500 in January 2024!!!","listText":"At least $5500 in January 2024!!!","text":"At least $5500 in January 2024!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257029845598224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943220179,"gmtCreate":1679496735091,"gmtModify":1679496739428,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943220179","repostId":"9949409979","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949409979,"gmtCreate":1678796237291,"gmtModify":1697535674342,"author":{"id":"3585780691540522","authorId":"3585780691540522","name":"FundMall","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585780691540522","authorIdStr":"3585780691540522"},"themes":[],"title":"Tiger Vault| A Good Alternative to Bank Deposits?","htmlText":"After&nbsp;the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9949547935\" target=\"_blank\">Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crash</a>, investors alike have rushed to withdraw their money from the U.S Banks in fear. If you, like these investors are worried about where to park your cash, we might just have the solution for you. Alternative to Bank Deposits Here at Tiger Brokers, <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/market/tiger-vault\" target=\"_blank\">Tiger Vault</a> is a cash management solution that provides investors yields of up to 4.54%* on their idle funds. You can select from mutual funds with relatively stable returns, low risk ratings, and high liquidity in the global markets. Is Tiger Vault impacted by the fall of SVB? The funds that we’ve handpicked to be part of Tiger Vault do not have any expo","listText":"After&nbsp;the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9949547935\" target=\"_blank\">Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crash</a>, investors alike have rushed to withdraw their money from the U.S Banks in fear. If you, like these investors are worried about where to park your cash, we might just have the solution for you. Alternative to Bank Deposits Here at Tiger Brokers, <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/market/tiger-vault\" target=\"_blank\">Tiger Vault</a> is a cash management solution that provides investors yields of up to 4.54%* on their idle funds. You can select from mutual funds with relatively stable returns, low risk ratings, and high liquidity in the global markets. Is Tiger Vault impacted by the fall of SVB? The funds that we’ve handpicked to be part of Tiger Vault do not have any expo","text":"After the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crash, investors alike have rushed to withdraw their money from the U.S Banks in fear. If you, like these investors are worried about where to park your cash, we might just have the solution for you. Alternative to Bank Deposits Here at Tiger Brokers, Tiger Vault is a cash management solution that provides investors yields of up to 4.54%* on their idle funds. You can select from mutual funds with relatively stable returns, low risk ratings, and high liquidity in the global markets. Is Tiger Vault impacted by the fall of SVB? The funds that we’ve handpicked to be part of Tiger Vault do not have any expo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c1b766bdb425403abc7dd4587b15524","width":"542","height":"569"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6cefd16514d53fd06fc1492555fd4249","width":"225","height":"225"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc7b1de23fcee2c9d2fc3e2379417d2a","width":"300","height":"168"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949409979","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943220054,"gmtCreate":1679496694279,"gmtModify":1679496698208,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943220054","repostId":"9949437401","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949437401,"gmtCreate":1678810151104,"gmtModify":1678810164841,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740637684170","authorIdStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"If you win $10 million in the lottery, will you continue spend $5 million on the lottery?","htmlText":"Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XLF\">$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$</a> Source of titleclosed&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT\">$XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT\">$XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>roll&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT\">$XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT$</a>","listText":"Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XLF\">$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$</a> Source of titleclosed&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT\">$XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT\">$XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>roll&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT\">$XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT$</a>","text":"Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ Source of titleclosed $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ roll $XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805ed4fe81dc71cfa65a279f7baf28d0","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e02b5248145a159936a26091e381eed","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7048655e45dba803a4ddc4a2bd9fec56","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949437401","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943267550,"gmtCreate":1679496630570,"gmtModify":1679496635642,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943267550","repostId":"9943920139","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943920139,"gmtCreate":1679054414522,"gmtModify":1679055167379,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668165440","authorIdStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"Banking Crisis is Over? Impact to Economy & Central Banks","htmlText":"On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> , and&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a> banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRC\">$First Republic Bank(FRC)$</a> .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States.&nbsp;Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday:&nbsp;China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while","listText":"On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> , and&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a> banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRC\">$First Republic Bank(FRC)$</a> .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States.&nbsp;Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday:&nbsp;China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while","text":"On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Bank of America(BAC)$ , and $Citigroup(C)$ banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States. Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday: China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0475db1ef70984e2477b560b4ab5c09e","width":"219","height":"230"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943920139","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949762846,"gmtCreate":1678896686986,"gmtModify":1678896690941,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949762846","repostId":"1182847092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182847092","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678891211,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182847092?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-15 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182847092","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三盘中，美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%，3B家居跌超8%，游戏驿站跌超6%，Roblox跌近4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三盘中，美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%，3B家居跌超8%，游戏驿站跌超6%，Roblox跌近4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270fb6c62a1072fbd9a99ffb2c1aff2a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-15 22:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三盘中，美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%，3B家居跌超8%，游戏驿站跌超6%，Roblox跌近4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270fb6c62a1072fbd9a99ffb2c1aff2a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ad0b0f865a392242e7815952d23bd","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","RBLX":"Roblox Corporation","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182847092","content_text":"周三盘中，美股WSB概念股走低，AMC院线跌近10%，3B家居跌超8%，游戏驿站跌超6%，Roblox跌近4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949762394,"gmtCreate":1678896676718,"gmtModify":1678896680059,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949762394","repostId":"1188736930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188736930","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678892337,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188736930?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-15 22:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"国际油价跌幅扩大至5%，刷新2021年12月以来最低位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188736930","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月15日周三，WTI原油期货盘中跌超5%，刷新2021年12月中旬以来盘中低点至67.62美元/桶。布伦特原油期货盘中也跌约5%，也刷新2021年12月中旬以来低点至73.65美元。NYMEX天然气","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月15日周三，WTI原油期货盘中跌超5%，刷新2021年12月中旬以来盘中低点至67.62美元/桶。</p><p>布伦特原油期货盘中也跌约5%，也刷新2021年12月中旬以来低点至73.65美元。</p><p>NYMEX天然气期货下跌6.0%，暂报2.418美元/百万英热单位。</p><p>上期所原油期货维持超过5.5%的跌幅，夜盘时段一度跌穿500元人民币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2689873c9b749735406da287a95c3edd\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价跌幅扩大至5%，刷新2021年12月以来最低位</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价跌幅扩大至5%，刷新2021年12月以来最低位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-15 22:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月15日周三，WTI原油期货盘中跌超5%，刷新2021年12月中旬以来盘中低点至67.62美元/桶。</p><p>布伦特原油期货盘中也跌约5%，也刷新2021年12月中旬以来低点至73.65美元。</p><p>NYMEX天然气期货下跌6.0%，暂报2.418美元/百万英热单位。</p><p>上期所原油期货维持超过5.5%的跌幅，夜盘时段一度跌穿500元人民币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2689873c9b749735406da287a95c3edd\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188736930","content_text":"3月15日周三，WTI原油期货盘中跌超5%，刷新2021年12月中旬以来盘中低点至67.62美元/桶。布伦特原油期货盘中也跌约5%，也刷新2021年12月中旬以来低点至73.65美元。NYMEX天然气期货下跌6.0%，暂报2.418美元/百万英热单位。上期所原油期货维持超过5.5%的跌幅，夜盘时段一度跌穿500元人民币。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949762962,"gmtCreate":1678896660956,"gmtModify":1678896665392,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949762962","repostId":"1105220061","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949514487,"gmtCreate":1678753256449,"gmtModify":1678753259918,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949514487","repostId":"2319104010","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319104010","pubTimestamp":1678752921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319104010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 08:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”，美国银行股集体暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319104010","media":"虎嗅","summary":"美联储或将不加息甚至降息？","content":"<html><body><p><span label=\"备注\">本文来自微信公众号：</span><span>每日经济新闻 （ID：nbdnews）</span><span>，作者：蔡鼎，编辑：段炼、高涵、杜波，原文标题：《“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”！美国银行股集体暴跌，多家银行停牌、熔断！美联储要降息了？》，头图来自：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a><span label=\"备注\">（下称SVB）</span>破产带来的恐慌情绪在周末大范围发酵之后，周一的欧美市场受到冲击。</p><p>3月13日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.89%，纳指跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.99%。多家银行股暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>停牌，开盘跌67%创纪录最大跌幅。西<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>合众银行盘初触发熔断，此前跌超40%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>停牌，盘初跌近76%。</p><p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">美国合众银行</a><span label=\"备注\">（USB.US）</span>跌超9%，美国银行<span label=\"备注\">（BAC.US）</span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a><span label=\"备注\">（WFC.US）</span>、花旗集团<span label=\"备注\">（C.US）</span>跌超4%，巴克莱<span label=\"备注\">（BCS.US）</span>跌近4%。</p><p><strong>第一共和银行周日晚间发布声明称，公司根本压不住投资者逃跑欲望。</strong>美联储、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>等机构为银行提供的未动用流行性安排总计超过700亿美元，可是股市投资者对此似乎充耳不闻。</p><p>随着市场避险情绪急剧升温，欧洲主要股指、美国期指、主要发达经济体国债收益率单边走低、美布两油大幅下挫，现货黄金、白银以及贵金属相关概念股走高。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202303/14/004125771694.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">现货黄金日内涨近2%（图片来源：英为财情）</p><p>此外，截至发稿，芝商所恐慌指数VIX大涨18.39%，逼近2022年10月以来新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202303/14/004125886182.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">恐慌指数VIX大幅上涨（图片来源：雅虎财经）</p><p><strong>恐慌情绪的蔓延，直接导致市场开始重新权衡包括美联储在内的各大主要央行接下来的加息步伐。</strong>目前，期货市场不仅开始押注下周美联储不加息，甚至已经开始押注美联储将在今年年底前降息50个基点。</p><p label=\"大标题\">一、美联储或将不加息甚至降息？</p><p>由于SVB破产导致的恐慌情绪蔓延，周一亚洲交易时段，两年期美债重挫18个基点至4.34%，加上上周四和周五的跌幅，创下自1987年10月以来最大连续三日跌幅，当时“黑色星期一”导致整个美股崩盘。除了两年期美债，其他所有美债收益率都在下行，30年期国债收益率下行近70个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202303/14/004127390041.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">两年期美债收益率近日大幅下跌（图片来源：CNBC）</p><p>交易员们现在已经开始押注美联储将于今年下半年开始降息——美联储利率掉期预计美联储将在年底前降息50个基点。</p><p>《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，在北京时间周一早间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新的报告中写道，“鉴于银行体系的压力，我们不再预计FOMC会在3月22日的会议上宣布加息。”<strong>至此，高盛成为首家喊出“美联储下周不再加息”的大行。</strong>此前，高盛预计美联储本月将加息25个基点。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">三菱日联金融</a>集团汇率分析师Lee Hardman在发给《每日经济新闻》记者的邮件中指出，“SVB的破产凸显了与利率上升相关的风险，让美元的涨势受到了打击。存款的挤兑迫使SVB意识到其证券投资组合的损失，从而引发了市场对银行的进一步信心丧失。SVB破产引发了市场预期的迅速调整。市场参与者现在预计美联储在3月22日的FOMC会议上制定货币政策时将更加谨慎，他们现在正在权衡美联储下周是将再次加息25个基点，还是根本不加息。”</p><p>随着恐慌情绪在欧美市场蔓延，期货交易员开始大幅押注美联储下周不再加息。据芝商所“美联储观察”，截至发稿，期货市场认为美联储下周不再加息的概率已经高达35%，不过加息25个基点的概率<span label=\"备注\">（65%）</span>仍然很高。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202303/14/004127242603.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">图片来源：芝商所</p><p>更令人惊讶的是，<strong>目前市场已经开始大幅押注在下周的会议后，美联储便将结束本轮加息周期。</strong>届时，美联储的终端利率大概率将达到4.75%～5.00%，远低于此前包括高盛在内的大行预计的5.25%～5.50%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202303/14/004128219046.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">图片来源：芝商所</p><p>《熊市陷阱报告》的作者Larry McDonald日前更是表示，SVB倒闭可能会促使美联储在今年12月前降息100个基点，以防止危机在金融体系中蔓延。<strong>这将标志着美联储为遏制通胀而大举收紧货币政策的路线出现重大逆转。</strong></p><p>除了美联储外，市场对欧洲主要央行的加息预期也大幅降温——截至发稿，市场对欧洲央行利率峰值的预期跌破了3.5％；自2月21日以来，市场对英国央行利率峰值的定价首次跌破了4.5%。</p><p label=\"大标题\">二、恐慌情绪外溢，分析师：市场反应恐过头</p><p>继SVB之后，美国监管机构当地时间周日晚间宣布，关闭了总部位于纽约的地区银行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>，这是SVB之后被关闭的第二家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>，也是美国史上第三大银行破产案。</p><p>美东时间周一盘前，第一共和银行<span label=\"备注\">（$First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$）</span>一度重挫近75%，此前该行声称，目前所有可用未使用的流动性资金超过700亿美元，但仍遭到严重挤兑。<strong>这让市场意识到这场危机可能仍未结束，再次点燃了恐慌情绪。这不禁让市场担心，它是否会成为此次危机中第三家破产的银行。</strong></p><p>经过一个周末的发酵，恐慌情绪显然外溢到了美国以外的市场。据美国媒体报道，英国和欧盟的贷款机构有近300亿英镑的资产化为乌有，英国央行也介入接管硅谷银行英国分公司的破产程序。当地时间周一，英国汇丰银行<span label=\"备注\">（HSBC）</span>宣布以1英镑的价格购买了已经倒闭的美国硅谷银行<span label=\"备注\">（SVB）</span>的英国分支机构，使所有服务将继续正常运营。</p><p>截至发稿，欧洲斯托克银行股指数大跌超7%，为一年来最大跌幅，此前裕信银行跌停。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/content/202303/14/004129536601.png?imageView2/2/w/1000/format/png/interlace/1/q/85\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">图片来源：MarketWatch</p><p>北京时间3月13日<span label=\"备注\">（周一）</span>凌晨，在美股财长耶伦否认救市短短8个小时后，美国财政部、美联储和美国联邦存款保险公司<span label=\"备注\">（FDIC）</span>发表联合声明，称经过各部门讨论并通过美国总统协商之后决定，财长耶伦批准了一些行动，将全力保护SVB所有储户的存款。美联储和美国财政部还利用紧急贷款权限建立了一个新工具，以帮助满足储户的提款需求。</p><p>然而，就欧洲市场和美股盘前的交易情况来看，<strong>美国政府目前的救市措施，并未能消除投资者对系统性风险的担忧。</strong></p><p>不过，在Jefferies全球股票策略师Sean Darby看来，市场目前的反应显然已经过头。他在发给《每日经济新闻》记者的置评邮件中指出</p><p>“鉴于SVB和Signature Bank独特的业务性质，传导可能会相对得到控制，不会导致任何系统性风险。SVB的致命弱点是其庞大的证券组合和高度集中的客户群体。此前，联邦存款保险公司<span label=\"备注\">（FDIC）</span>的快速反应已经阻挡了任何溢出效应，而大型银行则保留了强大的资本缓冲。<strong>美联储和财政部对银行破产的反应似乎是明智的，甚至是过于慷慨的。提供一年流动性以换取这些银行美债的持有量，应该可以有效地避免银行倒闭。”</strong></p><p>“SVB的破产所带来的影响对美联储政策和市场的利率预期来说是一个额外的复杂因素。我们认为，持续的担忧支持了长端利率接近峰值的观点。我们的美国经济团队强调，上周五好于预期的非农数据既不足以使美联储重新加快加息的步伐至50个基点，也不足以使他们需要重新评估其关于再加息几次以及利率在一段时间内维持更高水平的指导意见。”Sean Darby补充道。</p><p label=\"大标题\">三、拜登：要解雇他们！</p><p>据央视财经，当地时间3月13日，美国总统约瑟夫·拜登就硅谷银行倒闭以及签名银行<span label=\"备注\">（Signature Bank）</span>被关闭后美国政府的后续行动发表讲话。拜登称将要求美国国会加强银行监管。</p><p>拜登表示，目前美国联邦存款保险公司<span label=\"备注\">（FDIC）</span>已经接管了两家银行的资产，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和银行监管机构也已经采取行动，以保证在这两家银行有存款的用户和小企业能够得到保护，获得他们的储蓄或应得的资产。<strong>拜登在讲话中承诺，此次事件的所有损失都不会由纳税人承担。</strong></p><p>拜登还表示，这两家银行的管理层将会被解雇，银行的投资者本就应该有承担风险的准备，因此也不会得到政府保护。拜登表示，<strong>必须全面了解两家银行陷入困境的原因，并追究责任人的责任，以减少这种情况再次发生的风险，保护美国的经济。</strong></p><p>不过，据央视财经援引美国《财富》网站11日报道，就在美国硅谷银行10日宣布破产的11天前，其首席执行官格雷格·贝克尔<span label=\"备注\">（Greg Becker）</span>根据一项交易计划出售了价值360万美元<span label=\"备注\">（约合人民币2468万元）</span>的母公司SVB金融集团的股票。</p><p>根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的监管备案文件，贝克尔在2月27日出售了约1.2万股SVB金融集团股票，为一年多来首次。贝克尔在1月26日提交了出售股票的相关计划。对此，贝克尔和SVB金融集团都没有予以回应，也没有回应贝克尔在提交出售股票计划时是否清楚该银行的经营状况。</p><p><span label=\"备注\">本文来自微信公众号：</span><span>每日经济新闻 （ID：nbdnews）</span><span>，作者：蔡鼎，编辑：段炼、高涵、杜波</span></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”，美国银行股集体暴跌</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”，美国银行股集体暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-14 08:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/819747.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号：每日经济新闻 （ID：nbdnews），作者：蔡鼎，编辑：段炼、高涵、杜波，原文标题：《“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”！美国银行股集体暴跌，多家银行停牌、熔断！美联储要降息了？》，头图来自：视觉中国硅谷银行（下称SVB）破产带来的恐慌情绪在周末大范围发酵之后，周一的欧美市场受到冲击。3月13日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.89%，纳指跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.99%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/819747.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/cover/202303/14/074406220495.jpg?imageView2/1/w/720/h/405/|imageMogr2/strip/interlace/1/quality/85/format/jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4207":"综合性银行","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) 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（ID：nbdnews），作者：蔡鼎，编辑：段炼、高涵、杜波，原文标题：《“根本压不住投资者的逃跑欲望”！美国银行股集体暴跌，多家银行停牌、熔断！美联储要降息了？》，头图来自：视觉中国硅谷银行（下称SVB）破产带来的恐慌情绪在周末大范围发酵之后，周一的欧美市场受到冲击。3月13日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.89%，纳指跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.99%。多家银行股暴跌，第一共和银行停牌，开盘跌67%创纪录最大跌幅。西太平洋合众银行盘初触发熔断，此前跌超40%。阿莱恩斯西部银行停牌，盘初跌近76%。此外，美国合众银行（USB.US）跌超9%，美国银行（BAC.US）、富国银行（WFC.US）、花旗集团（C.US）跌超4%，巴克莱（BCS.US）跌近4%。第一共和银行周日晚间发布声明称，公司根本压不住投资者逃跑欲望。美联储、摩根大通等机构为银行提供的未动用流行性安排总计超过700亿美元，可是股市投资者对此似乎充耳不闻。随着市场避险情绪急剧升温，欧洲主要股指、美国期指、主要发达经济体国债收益率单边走低、美布两油大幅下挫，现货黄金、白银以及贵金属相关概念股走高。现货黄金日内涨近2%（图片来源：英为财情）此外，截至发稿，芝商所恐慌指数VIX大涨18.39%，逼近2022年10月以来新高。恐慌指数VIX大幅上涨（图片来源：雅虎财经）恐慌情绪的蔓延，直接导致市场开始重新权衡包括美联储在内的各大主要央行接下来的加息步伐。目前，期货市场不仅开始押注下周美联储不加息，甚至已经开始押注美联储将在今年年底前降息50个基点。一、美联储或将不加息甚至降息？由于SVB破产导致的恐慌情绪蔓延，周一亚洲交易时段，两年期美债重挫18个基点至4.34%，加上上周四和周五的跌幅，创下自1987年10月以来最大连续三日跌幅，当时“黑色星期一”导致整个美股崩盘。除了两年期美债，其他所有美债收益率都在下行，30年期国债收益率下行近70个基点。两年期美债收益率近日大幅下跌（图片来源：CNBC）交易员们现在已经开始押注美联储将于今年下半年开始降息——美联储利率掉期预计美联储将在年底前降息50个基点。《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，在北京时间周一早间，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新的报告中写道，“鉴于银行体系的压力，我们不再预计FOMC会在3月22日的会议上宣布加息。”至此，高盛成为首家喊出“美联储下周不再加息”的大行。此前，高盛预计美联储本月将加息25个基点。三菱日联金融集团汇率分析师Lee Hardman在发给《每日经济新闻》记者的邮件中指出，“SVB的破产凸显了与利率上升相关的风险，让美元的涨势受到了打击。存款的挤兑迫使SVB意识到其证券投资组合的损失，从而引发了市场对银行的进一步信心丧失。SVB破产引发了市场预期的迅速调整。市场参与者现在预计美联储在3月22日的FOMC会议上制定货币政策时将更加谨慎，他们现在正在权衡美联储下周是将再次加息25个基点，还是根本不加息。”随着恐慌情绪在欧美市场蔓延，期货交易员开始大幅押注美联储下周不再加息。据芝商所“美联储观察”，截至发稿，期货市场认为美联储下周不再加息的概率已经高达35%，不过加息25个基点的概率（65%）仍然很高。图片来源：芝商所更令人惊讶的是，目前市场已经开始大幅押注在下周的会议后，美联储便将结束本轮加息周期。届时，美联储的终端利率大概率将达到4.75%～5.00%，远低于此前包括高盛在内的大行预计的5.25%～5.50%。图片来源：芝商所《熊市陷阱报告》的作者Larry McDonald日前更是表示，SVB倒闭可能会促使美联储在今年12月前降息100个基点，以防止危机在金融体系中蔓延。这将标志着美联储为遏制通胀而大举收紧货币政策的路线出现重大逆转。除了美联储外，市场对欧洲主要央行的加息预期也大幅降温——截至发稿，市场对欧洲央行利率峰值的预期跌破了3.5％；自2月21日以来，市场对英国央行利率峰值的定价首次跌破了4.5%。二、恐慌情绪外溢，分析师：市场反应恐过头继SVB之后，美国监管机构当地时间周日晚间宣布，关闭了总部位于纽约的地区银行Signature Bank，这是SVB之后被关闭的第二家金融机构，也是美国史上第三大银行破产案。美东时间周一盘前，第一共和银行（$First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$）一度重挫近75%，此前该行声称，目前所有可用未使用的流动性资金超过700亿美元，但仍遭到严重挤兑。这让市场意识到这场危机可能仍未结束，再次点燃了恐慌情绪。这不禁让市场担心，它是否会成为此次危机中第三家破产的银行。经过一个周末的发酵，恐慌情绪显然外溢到了美国以外的市场。据美国媒体报道，英国和欧盟的贷款机构有近300亿英镑的资产化为乌有，英国央行也介入接管硅谷银行英国分公司的破产程序。当地时间周一，英国汇丰银行（HSBC）宣布以1英镑的价格购买了已经倒闭的美国硅谷银行（SVB）的英国分支机构，使所有服务将继续正常运营。截至发稿，欧洲斯托克银行股指数大跌超7%，为一年来最大跌幅，此前裕信银行跌停。图片来源：MarketWatch北京时间3月13日（周一）凌晨，在美股财长耶伦否认救市短短8个小时后，美国财政部、美联储和美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）发表联合声明，称经过各部门讨论并通过美国总统协商之后决定，财长耶伦批准了一些行动，将全力保护SVB所有储户的存款。美联储和美国财政部还利用紧急贷款权限建立了一个新工具，以帮助满足储户的提款需求。然而，就欧洲市场和美股盘前的交易情况来看，美国政府目前的救市措施，并未能消除投资者对系统性风险的担忧。不过，在Jefferies全球股票策略师Sean Darby看来，市场目前的反应显然已经过头。他在发给《每日经济新闻》记者的置评邮件中指出“鉴于SVB和Signature Bank独特的业务性质，传导可能会相对得到控制，不会导致任何系统性风险。SVB的致命弱点是其庞大的证券组合和高度集中的客户群体。此前，联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的快速反应已经阻挡了任何溢出效应，而大型银行则保留了强大的资本缓冲。美联储和财政部对银行破产的反应似乎是明智的，甚至是过于慷慨的。提供一年流动性以换取这些银行美债的持有量，应该可以有效地避免银行倒闭。”“SVB的破产所带来的影响对美联储政策和市场的利率预期来说是一个额外的复杂因素。我们认为，持续的担忧支持了长端利率接近峰值的观点。我们的美国经济团队强调，上周五好于预期的非农数据既不足以使美联储重新加快加息的步伐至50个基点，也不足以使他们需要重新评估其关于再加息几次以及利率在一段时间内维持更高水平的指导意见。”Sean Darby补充道。三、拜登：要解雇他们！据央视财经，当地时间3月13日，美国总统约瑟夫·拜登就硅谷银行倒闭以及签名银行（Signature Bank）被关闭后美国政府的后续行动发表讲话。拜登称将要求美国国会加强银行监管。拜登表示，目前美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）已经接管了两家银行的资产，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和银行监管机构也已经采取行动，以保证在这两家银行有存款的用户和小企业能够得到保护，获得他们的储蓄或应得的资产。拜登在讲话中承诺，此次事件的所有损失都不会由纳税人承担。拜登还表示，这两家银行的管理层将会被解雇，银行的投资者本就应该有承担风险的准备，因此也不会得到政府保护。拜登表示，必须全面了解两家银行陷入困境的原因，并追究责任人的责任，以减少这种情况再次发生的风险，保护美国的经济。不过，据央视财经援引美国《财富》网站11日报道，就在美国硅谷银行10日宣布破产的11天前，其首席执行官格雷格·贝克尔（Greg Becker）根据一项交易计划出售了价值360万美元（约合人民币2468万元）的母公司SVB金融集团的股票。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的监管备案文件，贝克尔在2月27日出售了约1.2万股SVB金融集团股票，为一年多来首次。贝克尔在1月26日提交了出售股票的相关计划。对此，贝克尔和SVB金融集团都没有予以回应，也没有回应贝克尔在提交出售股票计划时是否清楚该银行的经营状况。本文来自微信公众号：每日经济新闻 （ID：nbdnews），作者：蔡鼎，编辑：段炼、高涵、杜波","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949245538,"gmtCreate":1678714427925,"gmtModify":1678714429845,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949245538","repostId":"2319066079","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319066079","pubTimestamp":1678712400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319066079?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Carrier to Present at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319066079","media":"PR Newswire","summary":"PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) Sen","content":"<div>\n<p>PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Patrick Goris will speak at the Bank of America Global ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carrier-present-bank-america-global-130000594.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Carrier to Present at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCarrier to Present at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carrier-present-bank-america-global-130000594.html><strong>PR Newswire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Patrick Goris will speak at the Bank of America Global ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carrier-present-bank-america-global-130000594.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/8XWeChkfl4i8hBZEXbqppA--~B/aD0xNjA7dz00MDA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/prnewswire.com/3b71f7b52f2b409e82a3c398a45b130e","relate_stocks":{"LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carrier-present-bank-america-global-130000594.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2319066079","content_text":"PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Patrick Goris will speak at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference in London on Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 6:35 a.m. ET.\n\n  \n\nThe event will be broadcast live at ir.carrier.com. A webcast replay will be available on the website following the event.\nAbout CarrierAs the leading global provider of healthy, safe, sustainable and intelligent building and cold chain solutions, Carrier Global Corporation is committed to making the world safer, sustainable and more comfortable for generations to come. From the beginning, we've led in inventing new technologies and entirely new industries. Today, we continue to lead because we have a world-class, diverse workforce that puts the customer at the center of everything we do. For more information, visit www.Corporate.Carrier.com or follow Carrier on social media at @Carrier.\nCARR-IR\n\n\n\n\nContact:    \nMedia Inquiries \n\n\n\nAshley Barrie \n\n\n\n561-365-1260 \n\n\n\nAshley.Barrie@Carrier.com  \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nInvestor Relations \n\n\n\nSam Pearlstein \n\n\n\n561-365-2251 \n\n\n\nSam.Pearlstein@Carrier.com \n\n\n\n\n\n\n View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carrier-to-present-at-the-bank-of-america-global-industrials-conference-301770040.html\nSOURCE Carrier Global Corporation","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949245619,"gmtCreate":1678714409131,"gmtModify":1678714412674,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949245619","repostId":"2319066511","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319066511","pubTimestamp":1678712547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319066511?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan among suitors for SVB Financial in deal excluding SVB Bank- Axios","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319066511","media":"Reuters","summary":"JPMorgan among suitors for SVB Financial in deal excluding SVB Bank- Axios","content":"<div>\n<p>JPMorgan among suitors for SVB Financial in deal excluding SVB Bank- Axios</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2J1c2luZXNzL2ZpbmFuY2UvanBtb3JnYW4tcG5jLWFtb25nLXN1aXRvcnMtc3ZiLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1kZWFsLWV4Y2x1ZGluZy1zdmItYmFuay1heGlvcy0yMDIzLTAzLTEzL9IBAA?oc=5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_crawler","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan among suitors for SVB Financial in deal excluding SVB Bank- Axios</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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href=https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2J1c2luZXNzL2ZpbmFuY2UvanBtb3JnYW4tcG5jLWFtb25nLXN1aXRvcnMtc3ZiLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1kZWFsLWV4Y2x1ZGluZy1zdmItYmFuay1heGlvcy0yMDIzLTAzLTEzL9IBAA?oc=5><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>JPMorgan among suitors for SVB Financial in deal excluding SVB Bank- Axios</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2J1c2luZXNzL2ZpbmFuY2UvanBtb3JnYW4tcG5jLWFtb25nLXN1aXRvcnMtc3ZiLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1kZWFsLWV4Y2x1ZGluZy1zdmItYmFuay1heGlvcy0yMDIzLTAzLTEzL9IBAA?oc=5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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headset launch despite designers’ warning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319066437","media":"MacDailyNews","summary":"Apple CEO Cook orders mixed-reality headset launch despite designers’ warning","content":"<div>\n<p>Apple CEO Cook orders mixed-reality headset launch despite designers’ warning</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicWh0dHBzOi8vbWFjZGFpbHluZXdzLmNvbS8yMDIzLzAzLzEzL2FwcGxlLWNlby1jb29rLW9yZGVycy1taXhlZC1yZWFsaXR5LWhlYWRzZXQtbGF1bmNoLWRlc3BpdGUtZGVzaWduZXJzLXdhcm5pbmcv0gF1aHR0cHM6Ly9tYWNkYWlseW5ld3MuY29tLzIwMjMvMDMvMTMvYXBwbGUtY2VvLWNvb2stb3JkZXJzLW1peGVkLXJlYWxpdHktaGVhZHNldC1sYXVuY2gtZGVzcGl0ZS1kZXNpZ25lcnMtd2FybmluZy9hbXAv?oc=5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_crawler","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple CEO Cook orders mixed-reality headset launch despite designers’ warning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple CEO Cook orders mixed-reality headset launch despite designers’ warning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicWh0dHBzOi8vbWFjZGFpbHluZXdzLmNvbS8yMDIzLzAzLzEzL2FwcGxlLWNlby1jb29rLW9yZGVycy1taXhlZC1yZWFsaXR5LWhlYWRzZXQtbGF1bmNoLWRlc3BpdGUtZGVzaWduZXJzLXdhcm5pbmcv0gF1aHR0cHM6Ly9tYWNkYWlseW5ld3MuY29tLzIwMjMvMDMvMTMvYXBwbGUtY2VvLWNvb2stb3JkZXJzLW1peGVkLXJlYWxpdHktaGVhZHNldC1sYXVuY2gtZGVzcGl0ZS1kZXNpZ25lcnMtd2FybmluZy9hbXAv?oc=5><strong>MacDailyNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple CEO Cook orders mixed-reality headset launch despite designers’ warning</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicWh0dHBzOi8vbWFjZGFpbHluZXdzLmNvbS8yMDIzLzAzLzEzL2FwcGxlLWNlby1jb29rLW9yZGVycy1taXhlZC1yZWFsaXR5LWhlYWRzZXQtbGF1bmNoLWRlc3BpdGUtZGVzaWduZXJzLXdhcm5pbmcv0gF1aHR0cHM6Ly9tYWNkYWlseW5ld3MuY29tLzIwMjMvMDMvMTMvYXBwbGUtY2VvLWNvb2stb3JkZXJzLW1peGVkLXJlYWxpdHktaGVhZHNldC1sYXVuY2gtZGVzcGl0ZS1kZXNpZ25lcnMtd2FybmluZy9hbXAv?oc=5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4576":"AR","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) 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21:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"超百亿大动作！3000亿光伏茅刚宣布","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319069557","media":"市场资讯","summary":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　光伏赛道又迎大手笔投资。　　3月13日，隆基绿能披露两项投资公告。其一是在N型电池片领域的扩张，隆基绿能预计总投资77.77亿元建设30GW高效N型电池项目。其二则是以40亿元设立年产100GW单晶切片及年产50GW单晶电池项目的实施主体。不过对于后者，隆基绿能方面尚未确定其中电池项目路线。　　截至3月13日，隆基绿能股价41.99元，最新市值3183亿元。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<blockquote><p>　　炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p></blockquote> <p>　<span>　来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">中国基金</a>报</span></p>\n<p>　　光伏赛道又迎大手笔投资。</p>\n<p>　　3月13日，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基绿能</a></span><span></span>（601012）披露两项投资公告。其一是在N型电池片领域的扩张，隆基绿能预计总投资77.77亿元建设30GW高效N型电池项目。其二则是以40亿元设立年产100GW单晶切片及年产50GW单晶电池项目的实施主体。不过对于后者，隆基绿能方面尚未确定其中电池项目路线。</p>\n<p>　　今年被视为N型电池量产爆发元年，众多投资主体涌入，产能持续扩张。有机构统计，目前披露的N型TOPCon在建及规划项目超过250GW，其中包括<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300393\">中来股份</a></span><span></span>（维权）、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688599\">天合光能</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002865\">钧达股份</a></span><span></span>等主流厂商，也有着<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301030\">仕净科技</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002574\">明牌珠宝</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002329\">皇氏集团</a></span><span></span>等新兴跨界玩家。</p>\n<p>　　截至3月13日，隆基绿能股价41.99元，最新市值3183亿元。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/586/w550h836/20230313/4c89-dc72903d89a738edafa44caaf95097bd.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　两笔投资超百亿元</p>\n<p>　　隆基绿能近年来致力于一体化布局。该公司公告显示，其董事会审议通过了<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600295\">鄂尔多斯</a></span><span></span>年产30GW高效单晶电池项目，项目总投资金额达到77.77亿元，其中固定资产投资71.53亿元，流动资金 6.24亿元。公司方面预计，在租赁厂房和配套设施具备生产使用条件的前提下，预计2023年8月开始投产。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/762/w550h212/20230313/6622-17c2e69748e2be2d3490c282e44d26fb.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　实际上，隆基绿能筹划鄂尔多斯项目已近一年。去年该公司分别于3月12日和8月14日与鄂尔多斯市人民政府、伊金霍洛旗人民政府签订了相关协议，就公司在内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市伊金霍洛旗蒙苏经济开发区投资建设年产46GW单晶硅棒和切片项目、30GW高效单晶电池项目及5GW高效光伏组件项目达成合作意向。</p>\n<p>　　此次计划投建的便是其中30GW高效单晶电池项目。隆基绿能方面预计，该项目建成达产后，预计实现年均营业收入179.9亿元，年均净利润29.22亿元。根据隆基绿能此前公布的业绩预告显示，其2022年预计实现归母净利润145亿元到155亿元。</p>\n<p>　　同时，隆基绿能还表示，本项目将导入公司研发的高效N型TOPCon电池技术，量产电池转换效率将达25%以上，项目投资完成后，不会产生新增关联交易和同业竞争。</p>\n<p>　　除此之外，隆基绿能还披露了另一项投资。公告显示，隆基绿能子公司拟以40亿元设立全资子公司隆基绿能光伏科技（西咸新区）有限公司（简称：西咸新区）。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/83/w550h333/20230313/9f88-9897fed1b075b7d348728e7e8d0d8e05.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　在今年1月17日公司曾在西安签订《投资合作协议》，确定在陕西省西咸新区投资建设年产100GW单晶切片项目及年产50GW单晶电池项目。而此次设立的子公司西咸新区即为实施主体。</p>\n<p>　　不过，对于这一投资，隆基绿能方面并未指明技术路线。在近期机构调研中，公司方面称，截至目前，公司尚未确定西咸50GW电池技术路线，后续产能扩张的技术路线将根据公司研发成果而定。</p>\n<p>　　N型电池片有望迎 “产能盛宴”</p>\n<p>　　随着TOPCon电池实验室转化率提升至26%，成本逐渐下探逼近PERC电池，今年也被市场视为N型TOPCon电池量产元年。</p>\n<p>　　据公开数据显示，2022年P型PERC电池量产效率在23.2%~23.5%之间，基于P型硅片的PERC电池即将达到极限转化效率24.5%，成本在0.2元/W左右。而TOPCon电池在理论上极限效率远高于PERC电池，达到28.7%。</p>\n<p>　　此前，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">通威股份</a></span><span></span>均布局TOPCon并投产，量产效率最高的为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688223\">晶科能源</a>，效率稳定在24.8%水平。晶科能源在近日也公开表示，2023年将实现N型电池量产效率达到25.8%。</p>\n<p>　　而在成本端，TOPCon电池已下降至0.26-0.27元/W，已经接近P型电池的0.2元/W的成本。同时由于TOPCon电池在产线上与PERC电池有一定兼容性，电池片原有厂商在设备投入上不超过2亿元/GW，厂商扩产意愿强烈。</p>\n<p>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">山西证券</a></span><span></span>一份研报显示，截至2022年，TOPCon市占率已达到8.3%，而2021年仅2%，2023年有望快速发展。</p>\n<p>　　自去年以来，已经有众多投资主体涌入，TOPCon产能今年将持续扩张。截至2023年2月16日，经不完全统计，披露的TOPCon电池在建及规划项目超过250GW，其中包括中来股份、天合光能、钧达股份等主流厂商，也有着仕净科技、明牌珠宝、皇氏集团等新兴跨界玩家。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20230313/bb7b-ebbdc671b79ed6ba24b6a49715bc3200.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　市场预计，随着生产工艺简化，设备成熟度提升，TOPCon性价比提升，产业投资力度将呈快速增长趋势。</p>\n<p>　　目前来看，一体化龙头晶科能源2022年末N型电池产能达到35GW、出货突破10GW，预计2023年N型产品占比将超60%。而<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002459\">晶澳科技</a></span><span></span>规划了20GW的N-TOPCon电池产能，预计2023年N型电池产能达到27GW左右。此外，通威股份的电池产能计划从2022年70GW提高至2023年102GW。</p>\n<p>　　年底前会有GW级产品出货</p>\n<p>　　不过，隆基绿能对于N型和P型电池有自身考量。该公司在近期机构调研中称，在电池环节，采用N型或P型是基于对效率和成本的平衡，以及长期稳定性的考量来决定，并不是N型电池一定比P型电池的效率高。</p>\n<p>　　隆基绿能方面直言，从来没有把N型和P型当成核心因素，主要是从电池的转换效率、生产成本、稳定性、场景融合和美观性等方面去考虑。以此次在鄂尔多斯投产的N型TOPCon为例，隆基绿能方面称，早在2016年就开始了相关技术的研究，并搭建了中试线，在2021年发布了基于N型TOPCON技术的Hi-MON组件。“公司有大量的测试数据，对该技术的掌握非常成熟。”</p>\n<p>　　公司方面表示，将结合不同应用场景，实现不同技术领先的产业布局，N型TOPCon电池组件主要用于地面电站。“到今年底前会有GW级的产品出货，”该公司表示。</p>\n<p>　　此外，隆基绿能预计能够有足够需求支撑目前行业产能。在机构调研中，该表示，根据行业主要咨询机构的需求预测，并结合公司对产业链供需关系的分析，预计2023年全球光伏新增装机有望超过350GW。</p>\n<div>\n<span>炒股开户享福利，入金抽188元红包，100%中奖！</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：杨红卜 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>超百亿大动作！3000亿光伏茅刚宣布</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n超百亿大动作！3000亿光伏茅刚宣布\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 21:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2023-03-13/doc-imyktwqr8633524.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源：中国基金报\n　　光伏赛道又迎大手笔投资。\n　　3月13日，隆基绿能（601012）披露两项投资公告。其一是在N型电池片领域的扩张，隆基绿能预计总投资77.77亿元建设30GW高效N型电池项目。其二则是以40亿元设立年产100GW单晶切片及年产50GW单晶电池项目的实施主体。不过对于后者，隆基绿能方面尚未确定其中电池...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2023-03-13/doc-imyktwqr8633524.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"601012":"隆基绿能","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","LU2348773727.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Asian Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","BK0201":"可转债","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU1820825898.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - China A Share Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0188":"融资融券","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","BK0187":"一线龙头","LU2153592121.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU2153591404.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Asian Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","BK0054":"太阳能发电","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","BK0175":"白马股","LU2348774022.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU1580142542.USD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 USD","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK0196":"行业龙头","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","SGXZ49509284.SGD":"United China A Shares Innovation A Acc SGD","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","BK0224":"电气机械","LU1655091616.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities A (acc) SGD","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1146622755.USD":"安本中国A股股票基金A Acc","BK0028":"国家队"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2023-03-13/doc-imyktwqr8633524.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2319069557","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源：中国基金报\n　　光伏赛道又迎大手笔投资。\n　　3月13日，隆基绿能（601012）披露两项投资公告。其一是在N型电池片领域的扩张，隆基绿能预计总投资77.77亿元建设30GW高效N型电池项目。其二则是以40亿元设立年产100GW单晶切片及年产50GW单晶电池项目的实施主体。不过对于后者，隆基绿能方面尚未确定其中电池项目路线。\n　　今年被视为N型电池量产爆发元年，众多投资主体涌入，产能持续扩张。有机构统计，目前披露的N型TOPCon在建及规划项目超过250GW，其中包括中来股份（维权）、天合光能、钧达股份等主流厂商，也有着仕净科技、明牌珠宝、皇氏集团等新兴跨界玩家。\n　　截至3月13日，隆基绿能股价41.99元，最新市值3183亿元。\n\n　　两笔投资超百亿元\n　　隆基绿能近年来致力于一体化布局。该公司公告显示，其董事会审议通过了鄂尔多斯年产30GW高效单晶电池项目，项目总投资金额达到77.77亿元，其中固定资产投资71.53亿元，流动资金 6.24亿元。公司方面预计，在租赁厂房和配套设施具备生产使用条件的前提下，预计2023年8月开始投产。\n\n　　实际上，隆基绿能筹划鄂尔多斯项目已近一年。去年该公司分别于3月12日和8月14日与鄂尔多斯市人民政府、伊金霍洛旗人民政府签订了相关协议，就公司在内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市伊金霍洛旗蒙苏经济开发区投资建设年产46GW单晶硅棒和切片项目、30GW高效单晶电池项目及5GW高效光伏组件项目达成合作意向。\n　　此次计划投建的便是其中30GW高效单晶电池项目。隆基绿能方面预计，该项目建成达产后，预计实现年均营业收入179.9亿元，年均净利润29.22亿元。根据隆基绿能此前公布的业绩预告显示，其2022年预计实现归母净利润145亿元到155亿元。\n　　同时，隆基绿能还表示，本项目将导入公司研发的高效N型TOPCon电池技术，量产电池转换效率将达25%以上，项目投资完成后，不会产生新增关联交易和同业竞争。\n　　除此之外，隆基绿能还披露了另一项投资。公告显示，隆基绿能子公司拟以40亿元设立全资子公司隆基绿能光伏科技（西咸新区）有限公司（简称：西咸新区）。\n\n　　在今年1月17日公司曾在西安签订《投资合作协议》，确定在陕西省西咸新区投资建设年产100GW单晶切片项目及年产50GW单晶电池项目。而此次设立的子公司西咸新区即为实施主体。\n　　不过，对于这一投资，隆基绿能方面并未指明技术路线。在近期机构调研中，公司方面称，截至目前，公司尚未确定西咸50GW电池技术路线，后续产能扩张的技术路线将根据公司研发成果而定。\n　　N型电池片有望迎 “产能盛宴”\n　　随着TOPCon电池实验室转化率提升至26%，成本逐渐下探逼近PERC电池，今年也被市场视为N型TOPCon电池量产元年。\n　　据公开数据显示，2022年P型PERC电池量产效率在23.2%~23.5%之间，基于P型硅片的PERC电池即将达到极限转化效率24.5%，成本在0.2元/W左右。而TOPCon电池在理论上极限效率远高于PERC电池，达到28.7%。\n　　此前，晶科能源、通威股份均布局TOPCon并投产，量产效率最高的为晶科能源，效率稳定在24.8%水平。晶科能源在近日也公开表示，2023年将实现N型电池量产效率达到25.8%。\n　　而在成本端，TOPCon电池已下降至0.26-0.27元/W，已经接近P型电池的0.2元/W的成本。同时由于TOPCon电池在产线上与PERC电池有一定兼容性，电池片原有厂商在设备投入上不超过2亿元/GW，厂商扩产意愿强烈。\n　　山西证券一份研报显示，截至2022年，TOPCon市占率已达到8.3%，而2021年仅2%，2023年有望快速发展。\n　　自去年以来，已经有众多投资主体涌入，TOPCon产能今年将持续扩张。截至2023年2月16日，经不完全统计，披露的TOPCon电池在建及规划项目超过250GW，其中包括中来股份、天合光能、钧达股份等主流厂商，也有着仕净科技、明牌珠宝、皇氏集团等新兴跨界玩家。\n\n　　市场预计，随着生产工艺简化，设备成熟度提升，TOPCon性价比提升，产业投资力度将呈快速增长趋势。\n　　目前来看，一体化龙头晶科能源2022年末N型电池产能达到35GW、出货突破10GW，预计2023年N型产品占比将超60%。而晶澳科技规划了20GW的N-TOPCon电池产能，预计2023年N型电池产能达到27GW左右。此外，通威股份的电池产能计划从2022年70GW提高至2023年102GW。\n　　年底前会有GW级产品出货\n　　不过，隆基绿能对于N型和P型电池有自身考量。该公司在近期机构调研中称，在电池环节，采用N型或P型是基于对效率和成本的平衡，以及长期稳定性的考量来决定，并不是N型电池一定比P型电池的效率高。\n　　隆基绿能方面直言，从来没有把N型和P型当成核心因素，主要是从电池的转换效率、生产成本、稳定性、场景融合和美观性等方面去考虑。以此次在鄂尔多斯投产的N型TOPCon为例，隆基绿能方面称，早在2016年就开始了相关技术的研究，并搭建了中试线，在2021年发布了基于N型TOPCON技术的Hi-MON组件。“公司有大量的测试数据，对该技术的掌握非常成熟。”\n　　公司方面表示，将结合不同应用场景，实现不同技术领先的产业布局，N型TOPCon电池组件主要用于地面电站。“到今年底前会有GW级的产品出货，”该公司表示。\n　　此外，隆基绿能预计能够有足够需求支撑目前行业产能。在机构调研中，该表示，根据行业主要咨询机构的需求预测，并结合公司对产业链供需关系的分析，预计2023年全球光伏新增装机有望超过350GW。\n\n炒股开户享福利，入金抽188元红包，100%中奖！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨红卜","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940726396,"gmtCreate":1678195864916,"gmtModify":1678195869676,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940726396","repostId":"2317498762","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940267038,"gmtCreate":1677975587824,"gmtModify":1677975591278,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940267038","repostId":"1117028518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117028518","pubTimestamp":1677903999,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117028518?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 12:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从狂飙到集体失速，云计算换挡寻出路","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117028518","media":"钛媒体","summary":"云厂商集体急速放缓，本文通过分析海外以及中国云市场，试图指向一个共同问题：云市场如何激活下一阶段增长？公有云市场最近弥漫着一股悲观情绪。正如各大云厂披露出的最新一财季业务数据，云销售额增长放缓、净利润","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>云厂商集体急速放缓，本文通过分析海外以及中国云市场，试图指向一个共同问题：云市场如何激活下一阶段增长？</b></blockquote><p>公有云市场最近弥漫着一股悲观情绪。正如各大云厂披露出的最新一财季业务数据，云销售额增长放缓、净利润下滑等等，这直接或间接影响了科技股股价大缩水，以及以裁员降薪为主要手段的降本措施。</p><p>然而，仔细研究过去三年云厂商的走向就会发现，<b>这种所谓悲观态度的背后，还有它们面临云市场转型期的集体阵痛。</b></p><p>云计算时代，计算早已变成了一种社会资源，能够大规模同时使用，并且让用户的获取成本降低。这一过程中，用户也切切实实感受到了这种变化，但差异在于这套水煤电的动作完成后，云厂商的增值服务却并没有跟上客户需求的步伐（比如上层应用的丰富度、应用的深度），客户获得的价值滞后，甚至让双方的合作陷入零和窘境。</p><p>经钛媒体App初步计算，2019-2022年度，亚马逊云营收CAGR（年均复合增长率）为<b>31.64%</b>；2019-2022财年，微软智能云营收CAGR（年均复合增长率）为<b>24.5%</b>；2019-2022年度，谷歌云营收CAGR（年均复合增长率）为<b>43.38%</b>。</p><p>能维持不错的年均复合增长率，代表了企业在一定周期内实现规模增长的可能性，其难度是比2019年之前更具挑战性，相对而言，市场体量较小的谷歌云在过去四年保持了更为强劲的逆向调节能力。</p><p>本篇通过分析海外以及中国云市场，试图指向一个共同问题：云市场如何激活下一阶段增长？</p><p><b>云厂商集体急速放缓</b></p><p>头部云厂商在财报中披露的业绩数据，是云市场最直观的晴雨表。</p><p>对比了同期微软、亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布的截至2022年12月的最新季度财报。由于谷歌母公司Alphabet于2020年2月首次公开了2019 Q4及全年的云计算业务，以此为完整对照起始点，对三家科技公司云业务板块进行分析。</p><p>梳理数据发现，亚马逊云业务的营收在过去四年出现了十分明显的增长放缓迹象。2022年第四季度，亚马逊云营收实现213.8亿美元，同比增长20%，成为亚马逊云的历史最低增长率，而这一数据在2018年达到了45%；实现经营利润52亿美元，经营利润率下滑到24%，<b>连续四个季度收窄。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98fe552905a9081618c3b0adef0ef32c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>亚马逊云营收增长情况</p><p>在微软公布的2023财年第二季度业绩中，微软智能云业务部门（包括智能云产品Azure、服务器和云服务Windows Server、SQL Server，以及企业级服务）整体营收为215.1亿美元，同比增长18%。其中，服务器和云服务收入同比增长20%，与上一年同期相比下降了9个百分点；Azure和其他云服务收入同比增长31%，与上一年同期相比下降了15个百分点。</p><p>目前来看，智能云是微软增长最快的业务之一。从2016财年起，微软变更财务报告结构起，智能云服务部门业绩开始受到外界关注。2019财年Q4，智能云服务首次超过核心业务Windows所在的更多个人计算业务，这一年，智能云服务营收达到了114亿美元，而2016财年Q1，智能云服务营收只有59亿美元。具体到Azure云增速方面，从2022财年至今，其同比增速（50%、46%、46%、40%、35%、31%）<b>仍在持续放缓，并创新低。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e34c0b53b6b446c3c2a0826302601ec2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p> 微软云营收增长情况</p><p>本季度，谷歌云（包括G Suite、企业版GMail/Docs/Drive/Hangouts和谷歌的云基础架构收入）营收实现73.2亿美元，且营收增长有所下滑，从上一季度的38%跌至本季度的32%。这也是谷歌云业务自披露数据以来的最低增速。不过，谷歌云在亏损方面有所减少，从上一年同期的8.9亿美元减少至4.8亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4976ebbd74c413e1b77c7325c17849d4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>谷歌云营收增长情况</p><p>整体来看，相比云业务在发展早几年高歌猛进，海外三大云厂商的云业务营收增长放缓是进展到一定阶段必然面临的问题，分析师普遍给出了今年第三季度会持续放缓的预计。而在营收增速和盈利方面（以经营利润率及亏损数据作支撑），受历史性通货膨胀和美联储加息的部分影响，三大云厂商仍需要主动调整发展健康度。</p><p><b>客户缩减开支，优化云成本支出</b></p><p>面对云厂商集体急速增长放缓的现实，钛媒体App从多位专业人士处获悉，究其原因，云市场放缓主要源自客户开始缩减开支并对云资源使用进行优化，不过缩减的开支仍会投入于新业务场景或用于固化某一优势场景，这是资本逐利的表现。</p><p>对于客户而言，业务上云并不完全等价于降本增效。是租用云服务器还是采购物理机搭建私有云，其性价比不在于是不是“上云”，而在于“资源利用率”。一般来讲，资源利用率或者说云服务器利用率越高，性价比也就越高，云成本才能真正意义上摊薄。</p><p>目前来看，对于那些经历了数字化实践的企业而言，其首要任务是“整合”。在市场不确定性增加的整体趋势下，包括大公司在内，许多企业都开始调整IT运营成本，这一方面就包括服务器等资源占用的部分。<b>例如Meta已宣布将削减40亿美元用于数据中心的成本支出。</b></p><p>“由于大环境下的通货膨胀和经济衰退的担忧，大企业客户希望对现有的大量数字化应用进行优化，从而将节省的资金投入到新项目中。”一位分析师表示。</p><p>结合微软云过去一段时间的策略来看，从2022年开始承诺帮助客户控制云成本，7月将云服务器组件的使用寿命从4年延长到6年，以帮助客户减少支出。而一位接近亚马逊云的人士也向钛媒体App表示，用适当的工具和策略帮助用户优化云成本也是亚马逊云正在进行的一个重要事项。</p><p>Alphabet首席财务官Ruth Porat在财报电话会议中指出，“第四季度的云增速放缓，主要源自宏观经济影响下，客户对云资源的使用进行了优化调整。”在此期间，谷歌云也宣布了一项举措，<b>将其部分服务器和网络设备的生命周期延长至六年，以减少未来几个季度的折旧成本，以提高盈利能力。</b></p><p>不过，IDC报告近日指出，“如果企业不及时升级服务器，而且拖延时间超过最佳期限（目前被认为是4年或更短），累计运营成本会迅速增加。”这意味着，<b>延迟更换服务器可能会带来包括安全风险等新的隐性成本。</b></p><blockquote>“当优化云成本支出已经成为企业客户的首要策略，CIO们开始更加严格审查供应商合同和软件支出情况。”ETR通过市场调查发现。</blockquote><p>根据ETR最新调研数据能够清晰地看到，客户优化云成本存在几种策略：<b>一是整合跨部门/组织的冗余供应商；二是降低过度云资源使用；</b>三是降低以消费为主导的服务和工具支撑的工作负载；四是优化SaaS订阅模式等等。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a33a02fdaef77ae0f4d355ebd9d4cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>【过去两个月，整合冗余供应商策略占比已提升至36%，降低云资源使用占比也提升至19%，其中在金融科技和电信两个行业更为明显，分别为29%和28%。】</p><p>ETR给出的影响因素非常多：抵押贷款利率上升导致银行信贷部门业务减少，加密货币崩盘导致交易量减少，以及广告支出的减少，这些直接减少了对云资源的使用。除此之外，<b>企业用户还在尝试降低对数据分析的应用频次</b>，并且使用更低成本的计算实例如AWS的Graviton、AMD芯片，甚至还追求更优惠的定价策略，如按需和按spot定价、预留实例或者对服务器集群进行成本优化等等。</p><p>当企业客户希望在有限预算成本下，对云资源使用进行进一步优化时，会希望以更有效的方式运作现有业务应用，对新增云产品也更加谨慎。</p><p>甚至下云的现象也会出现，大企业会以较高性价比拿到硬件、软件和服务，结果把信息系统又重新放回本地数据中心或其他一个或多个私有云上。</p><p>在一份提交给证券交易委员会的亚马逊年度报告指出，长期来看，客户购买信心正在下降。</p><p><b>云时代的新策略</b></p><p>与客户购买信心下降和供应商销售订单放缓有所差异的是，更多的市场性报告在论证，全球云市场仍然是个巨大且具有增长潜力的价值市场。</p><p>Canalys云服务统计数据显示，2022年第四季度全球云基础设施服务支出同比增长23%，达到658亿美元；2022年全年，云基础设施服务总支出从2021年的1917亿美元增长到2471亿美元，同比增长29%。Synergy Research Group的报告显示，2022年全球公有云基础设施上支出将达到5440亿美元，同比增长21%。Statista数据显示，<b>2023年，SaaS市场收入最高，预计将达到近2540亿美元，同比增长18%；IaaS市场增长速度仍然最快，以35%的同比增速增长至1584亿美元；</b>PaaS市场预计达到1133亿美元，高于一年前的837亿美元。</p><blockquote>“因为市场不确定性增强时，企业会主动将业务重塑并加快提升客户体验，业务上云是直接选择。只不过，客户会优先考虑短期内运行量小的业务，而不是需要为长期较大合同付预付款。”一位市场研究员提到。</blockquote><p>事实上，云厂商仍在积极调整，以应对当前的挑战和机遇。</p><p><b>首先是对新增量市场的挖掘，包括拓展新客、对“智能云”业务加大研发投入。</b></p><p>对于亚马逊云而言，由于企业支出的下降，以及服务器能源和运营成本的上升，其盈利能力是个非常大的考验。为此，亚马逊云正积极拓宽客户渠道，截至到2022年，<b>纳斯达克、雅虎、笛卡尔实验室等新的大客户，已将部分/核心业务迁移至亚马逊云上。</b>此外据财报透露，亚马逊在西班牙和瑞士推出了新的可用区域，在印度推出了第二个可用区域。</p><p>而尽管Azure增长放缓，但微软CEO纳德拉回应并表示，放缓趋势不会是永久性的，“企业在业务优化过程中缩减的开支总会投入于新的业务场景，而这些场景才是增长的关键。”</p><p>从现实情况来看，<b>Azure已经积压的合同金额在2022年第四季度增长到了1890亿美元</b>，预计其未来收入将保持稳定。Azure Arc混合云解决方案，据称已服务12000多个客户，包括Citrix、Northern Trust和PayPal等公司，相比一年前增长了接近一倍。</p><p>微软还将更多目光放到了技术战略投入上——将Azure云与OpenAI背后所代表的ChatGPT进行深度集成。专家认为，“Azure将计算、存储和网络的结合方式，从根本上改变了云计算的核心。在过去3、4年，微软构建出的云基础设施，通过将AI技术引入到应用中，将繁重的模型训练改变成为具备推理能力的超级计算机。”</p><p>2022年，谷歌云构建的差异化产品以及在渠道生态上的持续建设，使其获得了西门子能源、英特尔、高通等大客户的背书。而伴随ChatGPT近期广受追捧，谷歌云在释放同样的信号：在人工智能研发及应用领域持续投入，以及AI在谷歌云等业务中的使用情况正日益增长。</p><p><b>其次是组织架构的调整，依靠强制性行政手段，从组织管理角度整体性优化，</b>强化以“销售+产品”能力互补的ToB团队，是当下重要的阶段性举措之一。</p><p>云计算大客户市场仍然是ToB供需性较为凸显的领域，服务B端，不仅仅是在卖产品，更多的是在教育客户，提供IT和咨询服务。客户成功和客户续费，这些也都不是当下努力就立马能看到结果的，需要长期深耕，产品研发、销售市场、服务运营等几个方面综合练功。</p><p>据The Information报道，谷歌云还在今年年初对其销售领导层进行了全面改革，试图进一步改进云业务盈利能力。</p><p>而该举措实际在中国科技企业也尤为明显：阿里云在蔡英华主导全球销售业务后，随即开始一系列调整，包括大销售队伍下沉“行业主建、区域主战”，被集成并向伙伴让利。而腾讯在2022年新设立政企业务线，以及在业务目标进一步明确，即聚焦自研和优化产品利润的背景下，进行了更多组织层面调整。</p><p><b>三是生态层面的构筑。</b></p><p>由于微软本质上就是一家非常典型的ToB企业，其自研能力超强，在云业务之前就已经形成如Microsoft365、Dynamics等通用型产品，通讯工具Teams的月活数量和功能丰富度也在不断提升。不过，微软云并没有形成需求很多合作伙伴共建的强生态。</p><p>与微软不同的是，亚马逊云没有所谓非常强的应用级抓手，虽然也有一些自研SaaS工具，但更多依靠生态内的合作伙伴的云资源消耗，在云市场方面，其收入来源也并非SaaS占主导。</p><p>而谷歌云目前主要的业务收入来源则是PaaS+SaaS产品。如果一直按照以产品为核心的发展思路，这就导致，每个产品都有自己的方向很难形成合力，权衡市场趋势、客户需求、企业优势，IaaS并非最优的路径。</p><p>从某种角度讲，ToB一开始并不是以生态为目的去构建产品、技术、商业体系，但发展到一定阶段却是需要从社区激活，反促生态。</p><p>不过对比中美云厂商在生态构建方面，肉眼可见的差距是中美市场环境的截然不同，烟囱化、系统集成、数据连接等生态性问题，导致SaaS应用软件的云渗透率低还无法破解，SaaS在中国依然是个潜力巨大但占比极低的市场。</p><p><b>中国出海or全球化视野下的正面竞争</b></p><p>在海外三大云厂商公布云业务财务数据后，阿里也披露了最新一季度云业务财务数据。</p><blockquote>2023财年第三季度，阿里云营收在跨分部抵销前和抵销后分别为266.93亿和201.79亿元，经调整后EBITA利润为<b>3.56亿元</b>，同比增长166%，<b>环比增长-18.0%。</b></blockquote><blockquote>对比2023财年前两个财季，第一财季实现营收176.85亿元，经调整后EBITA利润为<b>2.47亿元</b>；第二财季实现营收207.57亿元，经调整后EBITA利润为<b>4.34亿元</b>。</blockquote><p>也就是说，阿里云2023财年前三个季度（2022年4月至2022年12月底）已实现营收651.35亿元，按经调整后EBITA利润，合计10.37亿元。2022年（自然年）按经调整后EBITA利润，合计13.13亿元。而2022财年，阿里云才首次实现年度盈利11.46亿元。</p><p><b>整体来看，阿里云稳住了基本的盈利盘，却无法在至少过去一个财年实现持续高水准的利润率。</b></p><p>结合Canalys统计数据，似乎已经给出了初步答案：与全球云服务市场33%的高增长势头相比，2022年Q3中国地区的云基础设施服务支出同比增长11%，<b>增长明显放缓。</b></p><p>值得注意的是，在阿里云财报变动后一个基本公开的信息是，来自互联网客户的收入同比减少4%，主要来自一个头部互联网客户（字节跳动）逐渐停止于其国际业务使用阿里云的海外云服务，部分被来自中国互联网行业其他客户的需求增长所抵消。</p><p>在中国云市场，疫情反复致使客户市场在IT支出上存在一定的滞后，但对于有出海需求的中国企业市场，正在先被打开。</p><p>结合亚马逊云在中国市场的客户情况，出海需求的中国企业（如出海游戏、跨境电商等）已占据重要位置。IDC报告指出，对于中国企业或跨国公司使用国内公有云资源的业务，亚马逊云是前五名云服务商中增长最快的厂商，其在IaaS+PaaS市场的份额从7.5%增加至9%。另外IDC也给出了一组发人深思的数据：</p><blockquote>在中国企业2022年上半年使用海外公有云资源、且计收在中国的业务中，亚马逊云占了近3/4的市场份额。</blockquote><p><b>这是一个非常有压迫感的数字。</b></p><p>服务出海企业比拼的是，全球节点和本地化运营优势（贴合企业需求和合规）。2021年，亚马逊云正式发布“全球优势、植根本地”中国战略，2022年亚马逊推出“连中外”举措，针对中国出海企业拓展全球业务布局，应对各地区安全合规挑战。微软Azure则借助世纪互联的合作，已经完成在华云计算规模扩容三倍，并在中国华北、华东同时新增两个Azure区域、两个数据中心，并将于2023年6月正式投入商用。</p><p>中国云厂商也在积极出海。阿里云在去年12月开始运营其在日本的第三个数据中心，过去一年在海外累计新增6座数据中心，分别位于沙特、德国、泰国、韩国和日本，全球建立了26个地域节点和82个可用区。</p><p>不过，分析师Christopher Tozzi不久前指出，“虽然在北美、欧洲、东南亚等全球多个角落都运营着阿里云的数据中心，<b>但相比在中国和东南亚国家，阿里云在海外市场的覆盖度仍然有限。对于那些真正需要全球影响力的企业，将会很难用到阿里云的服务。”</b></p><p>他还表示，一些主流的可观测性、安全管理工具并非能够集成到阿里云上，以及尤其在北美市场阿里云对开发者社区的运营相对有限，这些都是导致企业没有用上阿里云的常见原因。</p><p>这意味着，未来的云市场增长空间中，对于中国云玩家而言，无论是深入政企还是卷向海外，打仗要讲谋略。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1669268442887","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从狂飙到集体失速，云计算换挡寻出路</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从狂飙到集体失速，云计算换挡寻出路\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 12:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lM1jq1kEXeR_bbG-m2NlfQ><strong>钛媒体</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>云厂商集体急速放缓，本文通过分析海外以及中国云市场，试图指向一个共同问题：云市场如何激活下一阶段增长？公有云市场最近弥漫着一股悲观情绪。正如各大云厂披露出的最新一财季业务数据，云销售额增长放缓、净利润下滑等等，这直接或间接影响了科技股股价大缩水，以及以裁员降薪为主要手段的降本措施。然而，仔细研究过去三年云厂商的走向就会发现，这种所谓悲观态度的背后，还有它们面临云市场转型期的集体阵痛。云计算时代，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lM1jq1kEXeR_bbG-m2NlfQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add5f090cc383f46b0c3a1d49fc9edc5","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lM1jq1kEXeR_bbG-m2NlfQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117028518","content_text":"云厂商集体急速放缓，本文通过分析海外以及中国云市场，试图指向一个共同问题：云市场如何激活下一阶段增长？公有云市场最近弥漫着一股悲观情绪。正如各大云厂披露出的最新一财季业务数据，云销售额增长放缓、净利润下滑等等，这直接或间接影响了科技股股价大缩水，以及以裁员降薪为主要手段的降本措施。然而，仔细研究过去三年云厂商的走向就会发现，这种所谓悲观态度的背后，还有它们面临云市场转型期的集体阵痛。云计算时代，计算早已变成了一种社会资源，能够大规模同时使用，并且让用户的获取成本降低。这一过程中，用户也切切实实感受到了这种变化，但差异在于这套水煤电的动作完成后，云厂商的增值服务却并没有跟上客户需求的步伐（比如上层应用的丰富度、应用的深度），客户获得的价值滞后，甚至让双方的合作陷入零和窘境。经钛媒体App初步计算，2019-2022年度，亚马逊云营收CAGR（年均复合增长率）为31.64%；2019-2022财年，微软智能云营收CAGR（年均复合增长率）为24.5%；2019-2022年度，谷歌云营收CAGR（年均复合增长率）为43.38%。能维持不错的年均复合增长率，代表了企业在一定周期内实现规模增长的可能性，其难度是比2019年之前更具挑战性，相对而言，市场体量较小的谷歌云在过去四年保持了更为强劲的逆向调节能力。本篇通过分析海外以及中国云市场，试图指向一个共同问题：云市场如何激活下一阶段增长？云厂商集体急速放缓头部云厂商在财报中披露的业绩数据，是云市场最直观的晴雨表。对比了同期微软、亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布的截至2022年12月的最新季度财报。由于谷歌母公司Alphabet于2020年2月首次公开了2019 Q4及全年的云计算业务，以此为完整对照起始点，对三家科技公司云业务板块进行分析。梳理数据发现，亚马逊云业务的营收在过去四年出现了十分明显的增长放缓迹象。2022年第四季度，亚马逊云营收实现213.8亿美元，同比增长20%，成为亚马逊云的历史最低增长率，而这一数据在2018年达到了45%；实现经营利润52亿美元，经营利润率下滑到24%，连续四个季度收窄。亚马逊云营收增长情况在微软公布的2023财年第二季度业绩中，微软智能云业务部门（包括智能云产品Azure、服务器和云服务Windows Server、SQL Server，以及企业级服务）整体营收为215.1亿美元，同比增长18%。其中，服务器和云服务收入同比增长20%，与上一年同期相比下降了9个百分点；Azure和其他云服务收入同比增长31%，与上一年同期相比下降了15个百分点。目前来看，智能云是微软增长最快的业务之一。从2016财年起，微软变更财务报告结构起，智能云服务部门业绩开始受到外界关注。2019财年Q4，智能云服务首次超过核心业务Windows所在的更多个人计算业务，这一年，智能云服务营收达到了114亿美元，而2016财年Q1，智能云服务营收只有59亿美元。具体到Azure云增速方面，从2022财年至今，其同比增速（50%、46%、46%、40%、35%、31%）仍在持续放缓，并创新低。 微软云营收增长情况本季度，谷歌云（包括G Suite、企业版GMail/Docs/Drive/Hangouts和谷歌的云基础架构收入）营收实现73.2亿美元，且营收增长有所下滑，从上一季度的38%跌至本季度的32%。这也是谷歌云业务自披露数据以来的最低增速。不过，谷歌云在亏损方面有所减少，从上一年同期的8.9亿美元减少至4.8亿美元。谷歌云营收增长情况整体来看，相比云业务在发展早几年高歌猛进，海外三大云厂商的云业务营收增长放缓是进展到一定阶段必然面临的问题，分析师普遍给出了今年第三季度会持续放缓的预计。而在营收增速和盈利方面（以经营利润率及亏损数据作支撑），受历史性通货膨胀和美联储加息的部分影响，三大云厂商仍需要主动调整发展健康度。客户缩减开支，优化云成本支出面对云厂商集体急速增长放缓的现实，钛媒体App从多位专业人士处获悉，究其原因，云市场放缓主要源自客户开始缩减开支并对云资源使用进行优化，不过缩减的开支仍会投入于新业务场景或用于固化某一优势场景，这是资本逐利的表现。对于客户而言，业务上云并不完全等价于降本增效。是租用云服务器还是采购物理机搭建私有云，其性价比不在于是不是“上云”，而在于“资源利用率”。一般来讲，资源利用率或者说云服务器利用率越高，性价比也就越高，云成本才能真正意义上摊薄。目前来看，对于那些经历了数字化实践的企业而言，其首要任务是“整合”。在市场不确定性增加的整体趋势下，包括大公司在内，许多企业都开始调整IT运营成本，这一方面就包括服务器等资源占用的部分。例如Meta已宣布将削减40亿美元用于数据中心的成本支出。“由于大环境下的通货膨胀和经济衰退的担忧，大企业客户希望对现有的大量数字化应用进行优化，从而将节省的资金投入到新项目中。”一位分析师表示。结合微软云过去一段时间的策略来看，从2022年开始承诺帮助客户控制云成本，7月将云服务器组件的使用寿命从4年延长到6年，以帮助客户减少支出。而一位接近亚马逊云的人士也向钛媒体App表示，用适当的工具和策略帮助用户优化云成本也是亚马逊云正在进行的一个重要事项。Alphabet首席财务官Ruth Porat在财报电话会议中指出，“第四季度的云增速放缓，主要源自宏观经济影响下，客户对云资源的使用进行了优化调整。”在此期间，谷歌云也宣布了一项举措，将其部分服务器和网络设备的生命周期延长至六年，以减少未来几个季度的折旧成本，以提高盈利能力。不过，IDC报告近日指出，“如果企业不及时升级服务器，而且拖延时间超过最佳期限（目前被认为是4年或更短），累计运营成本会迅速增加。”这意味着，延迟更换服务器可能会带来包括安全风险等新的隐性成本。“当优化云成本支出已经成为企业客户的首要策略，CIO们开始更加严格审查供应商合同和软件支出情况。”ETR通过市场调查发现。根据ETR最新调研数据能够清晰地看到，客户优化云成本存在几种策略：一是整合跨部门/组织的冗余供应商；二是降低过度云资源使用；三是降低以消费为主导的服务和工具支撑的工作负载；四是优化SaaS订阅模式等等。【过去两个月，整合冗余供应商策略占比已提升至36%，降低云资源使用占比也提升至19%，其中在金融科技和电信两个行业更为明显，分别为29%和28%。】ETR给出的影响因素非常多：抵押贷款利率上升导致银行信贷部门业务减少，加密货币崩盘导致交易量减少，以及广告支出的减少，这些直接减少了对云资源的使用。除此之外，企业用户还在尝试降低对数据分析的应用频次，并且使用更低成本的计算实例如AWS的Graviton、AMD芯片，甚至还追求更优惠的定价策略，如按需和按spot定价、预留实例或者对服务器集群进行成本优化等等。当企业客户希望在有限预算成本下，对云资源使用进行进一步优化时，会希望以更有效的方式运作现有业务应用，对新增云产品也更加谨慎。甚至下云的现象也会出现，大企业会以较高性价比拿到硬件、软件和服务，结果把信息系统又重新放回本地数据中心或其他一个或多个私有云上。在一份提交给证券交易委员会的亚马逊年度报告指出，长期来看，客户购买信心正在下降。云时代的新策略与客户购买信心下降和供应商销售订单放缓有所差异的是，更多的市场性报告在论证，全球云市场仍然是个巨大且具有增长潜力的价值市场。Canalys云服务统计数据显示，2022年第四季度全球云基础设施服务支出同比增长23%，达到658亿美元；2022年全年，云基础设施服务总支出从2021年的1917亿美元增长到2471亿美元，同比增长29%。Synergy Research Group的报告显示，2022年全球公有云基础设施上支出将达到5440亿美元，同比增长21%。Statista数据显示，2023年，SaaS市场收入最高，预计将达到近2540亿美元，同比增长18%；IaaS市场增长速度仍然最快，以35%的同比增速增长至1584亿美元；PaaS市场预计达到1133亿美元，高于一年前的837亿美元。“因为市场不确定性增强时，企业会主动将业务重塑并加快提升客户体验，业务上云是直接选择。只不过，客户会优先考虑短期内运行量小的业务，而不是需要为长期较大合同付预付款。”一位市场研究员提到。事实上，云厂商仍在积极调整，以应对当前的挑战和机遇。首先是对新增量市场的挖掘，包括拓展新客、对“智能云”业务加大研发投入。对于亚马逊云而言，由于企业支出的下降，以及服务器能源和运营成本的上升，其盈利能力是个非常大的考验。为此，亚马逊云正积极拓宽客户渠道，截至到2022年，纳斯达克、雅虎、笛卡尔实验室等新的大客户，已将部分/核心业务迁移至亚马逊云上。此外据财报透露，亚马逊在西班牙和瑞士推出了新的可用区域，在印度推出了第二个可用区域。而尽管Azure增长放缓，但微软CEO纳德拉回应并表示，放缓趋势不会是永久性的，“企业在业务优化过程中缩减的开支总会投入于新的业务场景，而这些场景才是增长的关键。”从现实情况来看，Azure已经积压的合同金额在2022年第四季度增长到了1890亿美元，预计其未来收入将保持稳定。Azure Arc混合云解决方案，据称已服务12000多个客户，包括Citrix、Northern Trust和PayPal等公司，相比一年前增长了接近一倍。微软还将更多目光放到了技术战略投入上——将Azure云与OpenAI背后所代表的ChatGPT进行深度集成。专家认为，“Azure将计算、存储和网络的结合方式，从根本上改变了云计算的核心。在过去3、4年，微软构建出的云基础设施，通过将AI技术引入到应用中，将繁重的模型训练改变成为具备推理能力的超级计算机。”2022年，谷歌云构建的差异化产品以及在渠道生态上的持续建设，使其获得了西门子能源、英特尔、高通等大客户的背书。而伴随ChatGPT近期广受追捧，谷歌云在释放同样的信号：在人工智能研发及应用领域持续投入，以及AI在谷歌云等业务中的使用情况正日益增长。其次是组织架构的调整，依靠强制性行政手段，从组织管理角度整体性优化，强化以“销售+产品”能力互补的ToB团队，是当下重要的阶段性举措之一。云计算大客户市场仍然是ToB供需性较为凸显的领域，服务B端，不仅仅是在卖产品，更多的是在教育客户，提供IT和咨询服务。客户成功和客户续费，这些也都不是当下努力就立马能看到结果的，需要长期深耕，产品研发、销售市场、服务运营等几个方面综合练功。据The Information报道，谷歌云还在今年年初对其销售领导层进行了全面改革，试图进一步改进云业务盈利能力。而该举措实际在中国科技企业也尤为明显：阿里云在蔡英华主导全球销售业务后，随即开始一系列调整，包括大销售队伍下沉“行业主建、区域主战”，被集成并向伙伴让利。而腾讯在2022年新设立政企业务线，以及在业务目标进一步明确，即聚焦自研和优化产品利润的背景下，进行了更多组织层面调整。三是生态层面的构筑。由于微软本质上就是一家非常典型的ToB企业，其自研能力超强，在云业务之前就已经形成如Microsoft365、Dynamics等通用型产品，通讯工具Teams的月活数量和功能丰富度也在不断提升。不过，微软云并没有形成需求很多合作伙伴共建的强生态。与微软不同的是，亚马逊云没有所谓非常强的应用级抓手，虽然也有一些自研SaaS工具，但更多依靠生态内的合作伙伴的云资源消耗，在云市场方面，其收入来源也并非SaaS占主导。而谷歌云目前主要的业务收入来源则是PaaS+SaaS产品。如果一直按照以产品为核心的发展思路，这就导致，每个产品都有自己的方向很难形成合力，权衡市场趋势、客户需求、企业优势，IaaS并非最优的路径。从某种角度讲，ToB一开始并不是以生态为目的去构建产品、技术、商业体系，但发展到一定阶段却是需要从社区激活，反促生态。不过对比中美云厂商在生态构建方面，肉眼可见的差距是中美市场环境的截然不同，烟囱化、系统集成、数据连接等生态性问题，导致SaaS应用软件的云渗透率低还无法破解，SaaS在中国依然是个潜力巨大但占比极低的市场。中国出海or全球化视野下的正面竞争在海外三大云厂商公布云业务财务数据后，阿里也披露了最新一季度云业务财务数据。2023财年第三季度，阿里云营收在跨分部抵销前和抵销后分别为266.93亿和201.79亿元，经调整后EBITA利润为3.56亿元，同比增长166%，环比增长-18.0%。对比2023财年前两个财季，第一财季实现营收176.85亿元，经调整后EBITA利润为2.47亿元；第二财季实现营收207.57亿元，经调整后EBITA利润为4.34亿元。也就是说，阿里云2023财年前三个季度（2022年4月至2022年12月底）已实现营收651.35亿元，按经调整后EBITA利润，合计10.37亿元。2022年（自然年）按经调整后EBITA利润，合计13.13亿元。而2022财年，阿里云才首次实现年度盈利11.46亿元。整体来看，阿里云稳住了基本的盈利盘，却无法在至少过去一个财年实现持续高水准的利润率。结合Canalys统计数据，似乎已经给出了初步答案：与全球云服务市场33%的高增长势头相比，2022年Q3中国地区的云基础设施服务支出同比增长11%，增长明显放缓。值得注意的是，在阿里云财报变动后一个基本公开的信息是，来自互联网客户的收入同比减少4%，主要来自一个头部互联网客户（字节跳动）逐渐停止于其国际业务使用阿里云的海外云服务，部分被来自中国互联网行业其他客户的需求增长所抵消。在中国云市场，疫情反复致使客户市场在IT支出上存在一定的滞后，但对于有出海需求的中国企业市场，正在先被打开。结合亚马逊云在中国市场的客户情况，出海需求的中国企业（如出海游戏、跨境电商等）已占据重要位置。IDC报告指出，对于中国企业或跨国公司使用国内公有云资源的业务，亚马逊云是前五名云服务商中增长最快的厂商，其在IaaS+PaaS市场的份额从7.5%增加至9%。另外IDC也给出了一组发人深思的数据：在中国企业2022年上半年使用海外公有云资源、且计收在中国的业务中，亚马逊云占了近3/4的市场份额。这是一个非常有压迫感的数字。服务出海企业比拼的是，全球节点和本地化运营优势（贴合企业需求和合规）。2021年，亚马逊云正式发布“全球优势、植根本地”中国战略，2022年亚马逊推出“连中外”举措，针对中国出海企业拓展全球业务布局，应对各地区安全合规挑战。微软Azure则借助世纪互联的合作，已经完成在华云计算规模扩容三倍，并在中国华北、华东同时新增两个Azure区域、两个数据中心，并将于2023年6月正式投入商用。中国云厂商也在积极出海。阿里云在去年12月开始运营其在日本的第三个数据中心，过去一年在海外累计新增6座数据中心，分别位于沙特、德国、泰国、韩国和日本，全球建立了26个地域节点和82个可用区。不过，分析师Christopher Tozzi不久前指出，“虽然在北美、欧洲、东南亚等全球多个角落都运营着阿里云的数据中心，但相比在中国和东南亚国家，阿里云在海外市场的覆盖度仍然有限。对于那些真正需要全球影响力的企业，将会很难用到阿里云的服务。”他还表示，一些主流的可观测性、安全管理工具并非能够集成到阿里云上，以及尤其在北美市场阿里云对开发者社区的运营相对有限，这些都是导致企业没有用上阿里云的常见原因。这意味着，未来的云市场增长空间中，对于中国云玩家而言，无论是深入政企还是卷向海外，打仗要讲谋略。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940264429,"gmtCreate":1677975557761,"gmtModify":1677975562132,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940264429","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We&#39;ve seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.</li><li>Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&amp;P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.</li><li>However, I&#39;m highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.</li><li>Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.</li><li>Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my &#34;all-in&#34; bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my &#34;Stocks Are Heading Higher&#34; article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.</p><p>Moreover, we&#39;re seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.</p><p>SPX - At Another Inflection Point<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e4c150b976cb211ccb6f5f67170f37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com)</p><p>The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there&#39;s a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.</p><p><b>There&#39;s a Chance</b></p><p>Although the probability is relatively low, SPX&#39;s support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it&#39;s premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.</p><p>Why Inflation Remains a Big Problem</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10057ace35cbf6a1921aa9cae02f6d0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There&#39;s been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed&#39;s target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January&#39;s CPI came in hotter than expected.</p><p><b>The Recent CPI Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7c22ef79685f6f2789bc39233660b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI (January)(Investing.com )</p><p>The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month&#39;s reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it&#39;s not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.</p><p><b>PCE Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100421b03f101dd14bf7039f266d679c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PCE inflation(Investing.com )</p><p>The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month&#39;s 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it&#39;s the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.</p><p><b>Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?</b></p><p>Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as &#34;transitory&#34; as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.</p><p><b>The Worsening Economy</b></p><p>Have you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they&#39;re not likely to go away anytime soon. Let&#39;s put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that&#39;s come out recently.</p><p>Just from the start of February, we&#39;ve seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.</p><p><b>Is the Labor Market an Exception?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada4e0ca1e2a60decab85dee6c4f940a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jobs data(Investing.com)</p><p>The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We&#39;ve recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Not Cheap Anymore</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen many companies&#39; earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we&#39;ve seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.</p><p><b>Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0cae380760ab0af564889c1e421d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E(multpl.com)</p><p>We&#39;ve seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted &#34;CAPE&#34;) ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.</p><p>Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom &#34;all-in&#34; buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940264580,"gmtCreate":1677975537440,"gmtModify":1677975541922,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940264580","repostId":"1179332953","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179332953","pubTimestamp":1677919500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179332953?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 16:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"无解的美国债务","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179332953","media":"智堡Wisburg ","summary":"你没法既要减税，又要高福利，还要政府削减债务甚至追求盈余，那显然是不可能的。自疫情以来，货币当局支持的财政赤字货币化成为了一种主流。而伴随着的疫情压力的消褪与高通胀问题的浮现，各大主要经济体又出现了对","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>你没法既要减税，又要高福利，还要政府削减债务甚至追求盈余，那显然是不可能的。</b></blockquote><p>自疫情以来，货币当局支持的财政赤字货币化成为了一种主流。而伴随着的疫情压力的消褪与高通胀问题的浮现，各大主要经济体又出现了对这类政策进行“清算”的呼声。</p><p>在国内，经济学家<b>在争论债务鸦片论</b>；在日本，全球投资者因日央行的换届而开始<b>担心收益率曲线控制的退出</b>将冲击日本债市；在美国，<b>债务上限</b>成为了焦点；在欧元区，有国家的债务与预算已经偏离马斯特里赫特条约所限制的水平。</p><p>研究者对政府债务问题的“认识”通常总是局限于一些狭义的比值指标，比如赤字/GDP比率，债务/GDP比率就是比较流行的衡量政府债务情况的指标。一国政府指标的恶化通常伴随着该国行政部门倒向“财政重整”，遗憾的是，<b>财政重整很难一帆风顺</b>。</p><p>市面上总是充斥着许多无意义的有关政府债务的“渲染”，今天这篇文章我就想从美国的债务问题谈起，简单描绘出一位货币研究者看待政府债务的框架。</p><p><b>美国的债务负担</b></p><p>要理解一国的债务情况，首先我们需要明确一点。主权政府想要搞到钱，只可能通过两种方式。</p><p>第一是通过税收，货币资源经由税收通过本国居民和商业实体转移至财政部。</p><p>第二是通过债券发行，即通过支付利息来借入货币。</p><p>政府搞钱的目的是为了用于政府支出，而支出大于收入就会出现赤字，反之则会出现盈余。出现了财政赤字，政府就需要通过债券融资来弥补资金缺口。</p><p>我们先来看美国的财政支出、财政收入以及当前的一些关键债务指标。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8e5f37e164c30efd831d847c0eb6f9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>关键信息：</b>二十一世纪以来，<b>美国处于持续的赤字状态（入不敷出）</b>，近六年赤字状况进一步恶化。 经年累月的赤字使得美国的债务/GDP比率持续恶化</p><p>我们转向收支结构分析，寻找美国持续赤字的根源。</p><p><b>耶伦的努力</b></p><p>去年，美国的财政赤字规模相较于2020年、2021年削减了一半，财政部长耶伦从收支两端入手做了很多努力：</p><p>在收入端，比较有代表性的政策，是耶伦在战略层面试图通过<b>设定全球最低税</b>来逆转企业避税带来的税基损失，战术层面则有通过<b>增强税收征缴力度</b>来打击各类逃避税活动。2022财年政府收入上升了21%（历史第二高增速），<b>其中个人所得税相比上年增长28.8%</b>。全年财政收入从4万亿美元的水平上升到了接近5万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1578df38f8b7e7d1b64b7ec49c0547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>在支出侧，疫情相关的开支正逐步消褪，可退抵税额、失业补助、小企业补助以及疫情纾解相关的开支大幅下降，从1.7万亿美元/年下降至4000亿美元/年。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1779aea9dab2575b02aadb3a8689351c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>可即便收入与支出端皆迎来实质改善，<b>全年1.3万亿美元的赤字规模依然高于疫情前的不足1万亿美元。</b></p><p><b>无解的债务</b></p><p>在财政部的支出中，负担最大的部分是社保/医保这类“法定支出”。</p><p>请注意，美国财政部是其行政部门的财务代理，行政部门一旦通过了一些长期限的支出，那么财政部就必须支付款项，这是“法定义务”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd255922382998b2a84baf0dc1cb5f0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>财政情况与债务状况恶化的一个根本原因是——<b>行政部门自然倾向于向其国民提供各种各样的福利与货币利益，比如社保和医保这类“公共利益”</b>。而行政部门<b>又很难大幅开征税收，因为企业和居民的身份都是可以迁移的，且大幅增税的提案总是不受选民的欢迎</b>。</p><p>这也是为什么美国的“债务上限”从来就不具备约束力的原因，<b>因为债务只是一个“表”，无止境的债务发行背后实质是无止尽的“支出法案”这一“里”，限制不住财政支出的里子，债务上限只能被不停地上调来满足行政部门的支出欲望</b>。</p><p><b>新的范式？</b></p><p>近一年来，由于美联储的货币政策紧缩非常凌厉，市场中出现了一些声音，认为货币流动性的盛宴就此终结了，高通胀时代来临会迫使央行长期保持紧缩。</p><p>但笔者认为，除非美国政府的财政支出/融资模式被改变，<b>央行政策事实上很难独立转向</b>，<b>因为财政的资金需求总是会逼迫央行提供宽裕的流动性。</b></p><p>换言之，美国赤字状况的改善决定了货币政策可以在多长的时间周期内保持紧缩，如果美国政府转向盈余，那么赤字融资的流动性需求自然会下降。反之，则必然会重新走回2019年时的老路，即财政的资金需求迫使联储终结紧缩，开启“准备金管理目标的资产购买”（实质就是QE）。</p><p>新财年的前四个月，美国政府又积累了近5000亿的赤字，国防与债务利息的开支又在增长，这意味着<b>除非美国政府可以大幅提高税收的同时下手削减本国的福利开支，不然我们就不能过早地预测货币-财政模式的“范式转换”。</b></p><p>与此同时，财政赤字的支持与货币宽松的支持同时消褪，意味着美国经济增长的流动性引擎只能倚仗银行体系的信贷流动性。<b>而一旦信贷宽松开始消退，那么行政当局很有可能将面对经济衰退的麻烦。</b></p><p>选择出清就意味着承担政权风险。</p><p><b>小结</b></p><p>当我们在谈论债务与负债的时候，要谨记Liability还有“义务”与“责任”的含义，支持政府债务的削减，实际上就必须卸下政府的一些“义务”和“责任”。<b>如果你在支持减税和提供高额政府福利的同时还试图敦促政府削减债务甚至追求盈余，那显然是矛盾的</b>。但反过来，政府同样不希望卸下自己的“责任”和“义务”来追求整体性的债务去杠杆，因为政府债务的“清偿”以及货币的“收缩”实质也就对应着政府权力的收缩。</p><p>你都不是债务人了，那何来的债权人？</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568282935039","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>无解的美国债务</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n无解的美国债务\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 16:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3MjY1MzM5Nw==&mid=2247489966&idx=1&sn=5c2706b490630609814bba0d9ac35736&chksm=fcccf394cbbb7a824e9a848ba0545ac5fdf80bd192a367d3166f82b316d721fca409fb1994cb><strong>智堡Wisburg </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>你没法既要减税，又要高福利，还要政府削减债务甚至追求盈余，那显然是不可能的。自疫情以来，货币当局支持的财政赤字货币化成为了一种主流。而伴随着的疫情压力的消褪与高通胀问题的浮现，各大主要经济体又出现了对这类政策进行“清算”的呼声。在国内，经济学家在争论债务鸦片论；在日本，全球投资者因日央行的换届而开始担心收益率曲线控制的退出将冲击日本债市；在美国，债务上限成为了焦点；在欧元区，有国家的债务与预算已经...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3MjY1MzM5Nw==&mid=2247489966&idx=1&sn=5c2706b490630609814bba0d9ac35736&chksm=fcccf394cbbb7a824e9a848ba0545ac5fdf80bd192a367d3166f82b316d721fca409fb1994cb\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3MjY1MzM5Nw==&mid=2247489966&idx=1&sn=5c2706b490630609814bba0d9ac35736&chksm=fcccf394cbbb7a824e9a848ba0545ac5fdf80bd192a367d3166f82b316d721fca409fb1994cb","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179332953","content_text":"你没法既要减税，又要高福利，还要政府削减债务甚至追求盈余，那显然是不可能的。自疫情以来，货币当局支持的财政赤字货币化成为了一种主流。而伴随着的疫情压力的消褪与高通胀问题的浮现，各大主要经济体又出现了对这类政策进行“清算”的呼声。在国内，经济学家在争论债务鸦片论；在日本，全球投资者因日央行的换届而开始担心收益率曲线控制的退出将冲击日本债市；在美国，债务上限成为了焦点；在欧元区，有国家的债务与预算已经偏离马斯特里赫特条约所限制的水平。研究者对政府债务问题的“认识”通常总是局限于一些狭义的比值指标，比如赤字/GDP比率，债务/GDP比率就是比较流行的衡量政府债务情况的指标。一国政府指标的恶化通常伴随着该国行政部门倒向“财政重整”，遗憾的是，财政重整很难一帆风顺。市面上总是充斥着许多无意义的有关政府债务的“渲染”，今天这篇文章我就想从美国的债务问题谈起，简单描绘出一位货币研究者看待政府债务的框架。美国的债务负担要理解一国的债务情况，首先我们需要明确一点。主权政府想要搞到钱，只可能通过两种方式。第一是通过税收，货币资源经由税收通过本国居民和商业实体转移至财政部。第二是通过债券发行，即通过支付利息来借入货币。政府搞钱的目的是为了用于政府支出，而支出大于收入就会出现赤字，反之则会出现盈余。出现了财政赤字，政府就需要通过债券融资来弥补资金缺口。我们先来看美国的财政支出、财政收入以及当前的一些关键债务指标。关键信息：二十一世纪以来，美国处于持续的赤字状态（入不敷出），近六年赤字状况进一步恶化。 经年累月的赤字使得美国的债务/GDP比率持续恶化我们转向收支结构分析，寻找美国持续赤字的根源。耶伦的努力去年，美国的财政赤字规模相较于2020年、2021年削减了一半，财政部长耶伦从收支两端入手做了很多努力：在收入端，比较有代表性的政策，是耶伦在战略层面试图通过设定全球最低税来逆转企业避税带来的税基损失，战术层面则有通过增强税收征缴力度来打击各类逃避税活动。2022财年政府收入上升了21%（历史第二高增速），其中个人所得税相比上年增长28.8%。全年财政收入从4万亿美元的水平上升到了接近5万亿美元。在支出侧，疫情相关的开支正逐步消褪，可退抵税额、失业补助、小企业补助以及疫情纾解相关的开支大幅下降，从1.7万亿美元/年下降至4000亿美元/年。可即便收入与支出端皆迎来实质改善，全年1.3万亿美元的赤字规模依然高于疫情前的不足1万亿美元。无解的债务在财政部的支出中，负担最大的部分是社保/医保这类“法定支出”。请注意，美国财政部是其行政部门的财务代理，行政部门一旦通过了一些长期限的支出，那么财政部就必须支付款项，这是“法定义务”。财政情况与债务状况恶化的一个根本原因是——行政部门自然倾向于向其国民提供各种各样的福利与货币利益，比如社保和医保这类“公共利益”。而行政部门又很难大幅开征税收，因为企业和居民的身份都是可以迁移的，且大幅增税的提案总是不受选民的欢迎。这也是为什么美国的“债务上限”从来就不具备约束力的原因，因为债务只是一个“表”，无止境的债务发行背后实质是无止尽的“支出法案”这一“里”，限制不住财政支出的里子，债务上限只能被不停地上调来满足行政部门的支出欲望。新的范式？近一年来，由于美联储的货币政策紧缩非常凌厉，市场中出现了一些声音，认为货币流动性的盛宴就此终结了，高通胀时代来临会迫使央行长期保持紧缩。但笔者认为，除非美国政府的财政支出/融资模式被改变，央行政策事实上很难独立转向，因为财政的资金需求总是会逼迫央行提供宽裕的流动性。换言之，美国赤字状况的改善决定了货币政策可以在多长的时间周期内保持紧缩，如果美国政府转向盈余，那么赤字融资的流动性需求自然会下降。反之，则必然会重新走回2019年时的老路，即财政的资金需求迫使联储终结紧缩，开启“准备金管理目标的资产购买”（实质就是QE）。新财年的前四个月，美国政府又积累了近5000亿的赤字，国防与债务利息的开支又在增长，这意味着除非美国政府可以大幅提高税收的同时下手削减本国的福利开支，不然我们就不能过早地预测货币-财政模式的“范式转换”。与此同时，财政赤字的支持与货币宽松的支持同时消褪，意味着美国经济增长的流动性引擎只能倚仗银行体系的信贷流动性。而一旦信贷宽松开始消退，那么行政当局很有可能将面对经济衰退的麻烦。选择出清就意味着承担政权风险。小结当我们在谈论债务与负债的时候，要谨记Liability还有“义务”与“责任”的含义，支持政府债务的削减，实际上就必须卸下政府的一些“义务”和“责任”。如果你在支持减税和提供高额政府福利的同时还试图敦促政府削减债务甚至追求盈余，那显然是矛盾的。但反过来，政府同样不希望卸下自己的“责任”和“义务”来追求整体性的债务去杠杆，因为政府债务的“清偿”以及货币的“收缩”实质也就对应着政府权力的收缩。你都不是债务人了，那何来的债权人？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9963712689,"gmtCreate":1668756760841,"gmtModify":1676538108801,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to trade, fair price for trade&nbsp;commissions, multi market in one account&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667668165440\">@Capital_Insights&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667641877241\">@APPHELPER&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Good to trade, fair price for trade&nbsp;commissions, multi market in one account&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667668165440\">@Capital_Insights&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667641877241\">@APPHELPER&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars&nbsp;</a>","text":"Good to trade, fair price for trade commissions, multi market in one account [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] @Daily_Discussion @Capital_Insights @APPHELPER @TigerStars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963712689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"content":"[Money obsession] [Money obsession] [Money obsession] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","text":"[Money obsession] [Money obsession] [Money obsession] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","html":"[Money obsession] [Money obsession] [Money obsession] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911667308,"gmtCreate":1664197919304,"gmtModify":1676537407754,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Use tigers you never disappoint,extremely experience&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"Use tigers you never disappoint,extremely experience&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"Use tigers you never disappoint,extremely experience [得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911667308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938009244,"gmtCreate":1662516480688,"gmtModify":1676537078477,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意] [得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aedaa988bde9e99910124e2ba335a51f","width":"750","height":"984"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938009244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940296007,"gmtCreate":1677917781709,"gmtModify":1677917785109,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940296007","repostId":"2316275479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316275479","pubTimestamp":1677896175,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316275479?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These Dividend Stocks Can Double Your Money in Under 6 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316275479","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Doubling in under six years will lead to impressive market outperformance.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As a rule of thumb, the <b>S&amp;P 500 </b>doubles once every seven to eight years. If you can consistently find stocks with the potential to double in six years, then you&#39;ve got a market-beating strategy that can place you well ahead of the pack.</p><p>To double in six years requires a compound annual growth rate of 12.3%. While outright growth can achieve this, dividends from more mature companies can also play a crucial role in achieving this level of outperformance. So let&#39;s take a look at some dividend stocks that could double in six years.</p><h2>1. Taiwan Semiconductor</h2><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor </b>emerged as one of the top semiconductor foundries worldwide. Its cutting-edge processes with 3nm (nanometer) and 5nm chips have given it a key technological edge over many other chipmakers, which has helped power the stock to massive growth.</p><p>Unlike other chip companies, Taiwan Semiconductor doesn&#39;t market its chips to consumers. Instead, it produces chips for some of the tech leaders like <b>Apple </b>and <b>Nvidia</b>. However, as the electronics market loses steam, the chip industry may be going through a downward phase in its usual cycle.</p><p>Still, Wall Street analysts project flat revenue this year and expect it to deliver 21% growth in 2024. While earnings will likely fall this year thanks to a weaker chip market, Taiwan Semiconductor still trades a cheap 15.3 times forward earnings, which uses 2023 projections.</p><p>Although the business may be in a downturn now, the chips Taiwan Semiconductor currently produces are still a worthwhile upgrade. Additionally, it&#39;s likely working on new technology that will become the next evolution in the chip space.</p><p>With the stock sporting a 2% dividend yield, Taiwan Semiconductor is a strong candidate for a company that can outperform the market and double within six years.</p><h2>2. Prologis</h2><p>Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are tax-advantaged because they are required to pay out 90% of their earnings as dividends. REITs don&#39;t have to pay taxes on the dividends they pay because of this classification, so it provides shareholders with a generous dividend payout. <b>Prologis</b> is classified as a REIT and focuses on industrial warehouses. If you&#39;ve seen a distribution center with concrete walls that sprung up seemingly overnight, that&#39;s the type of building Prologis owns. However, with warehouses in 28 cities in the U.S. and only in 19 different countires, Prologis has a lot of room for growth.</p><p>The company estimates $2.7 trillion in goods flow through its distribution centers annually, accounting for nearly 3% of the world&#39;s GDP. With the current trend of commerce, it&#39;s likely that more distribution centers will be needed globally to support e-commerce buildout. With 98% of its buildings occupied during the fourth quarter, it&#39;s clear that the market opportunity hasn&#39;t been saturated either.</p><p>Prologis also issued strong 2023 guidance, with core funds from operation (FFO, a metric REITs utilize to convey earnings better) expected to grow 9.5%. While that may not sound like market-crushing growth, it also pays a respectable 2.8% dividend yield. The growth and dividend combined yield a powerful combination that should fuel the stock to beat the market.</p><p>With strong demand for warehouses still present, Prologis has a bright future ahead.</p><h2>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a></h2><p><b>Visa</b>&#39;s dividend isn&#39;t as generous as the others -- it only yields 0.75%. However, its growth potential surpasses Taiwan Semiconductor and Prologis.</p><p>Visa&#39;s payment processing network is the largest of its kind and processed over $3 trillion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 (ended Dec. 31, 2022). From that $3 trillion, it generated $7.9 billion in revenue in the first quarter, indicating it takes about 0.26% of the volume it processes as fees for utilizing its network.</p><p>As the world moves to a cashless society, Visa&#39;s processed payment volume will continue to grow, giving it the opportunity to expand its reach over the next six years. The stock is also historically cheap when assessed from a price-to-earnings standpoint.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9867b65ca3cd257bbc3b1ee2156ea\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>V PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p><p>Additionally, Visa has paid a steadily growing dividend over the past 14 years and only pays out about 20% of its free cash flow, indicating management could substantially expand its dividend over the next decade.</p><p>Visa is the largest payment processor of its kind, and it&#39;s unlikely we will revert to using more cash in the next six years, so Visa will stand to benefit from the shift. With Wall Street analysts projecting 10.4% and 11.1% growth in FY 2023 and 2024, Visa still has plenty of room to grow.</p><h2>Keep or reinvest the dividends?</h2><p>All three of these stocks more than doubled over the past six years, stomping the S&amp;P 500. However, choosing to reinvest the dividends in the company instead of taking them paid off big time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5409a5188c14aced985466a42f9f874e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>V data by YCharts.</p><p>On the bottom of the above chart is what happens when you reinvest the dividends; on the top is if you choose to take them in cash. As you can see, reinvesting the dividends made a huge difference in the performance of all three companies.</p><p>If you don&#39;t need the cash flows and you believe the stock will outperform in the long run, then reinvesting dividends is a smart move. If I were to take a position in this trio today, I&#39;d reinvest the dividends, as each company still has a bright future ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These Dividend Stocks Can Double Your Money in Under 6 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese Dividend Stocks Can Double Your Money in Under 6 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/03/these-dividend-stocks-can-double-your-money-in-und/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As a rule of thumb, the S&P 500 doubles once every seven to eight years. If you can consistently find stocks with the potential to double in six years, then you've got a market-beating strategy that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/03/these-dividend-stocks-can-double-your-money-in-und/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLD":"安博","V":"Visa","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/03/these-dividend-stocks-can-double-your-money-in-und/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316275479","content_text":"As a rule of thumb, the S&P 500 doubles once every seven to eight years. If you can consistently find stocks with the potential to double in six years, then you've got a market-beating strategy that can place you well ahead of the pack.To double in six years requires a compound annual growth rate of 12.3%. While outright growth can achieve this, dividends from more mature companies can also play a crucial role in achieving this level of outperformance. So let's take a look at some dividend stocks that could double in six years.1. Taiwan SemiconductorTaiwan Semiconductor emerged as one of the top semiconductor foundries worldwide. Its cutting-edge processes with 3nm (nanometer) and 5nm chips have given it a key technological edge over many other chipmakers, which has helped power the stock to massive growth.Unlike other chip companies, Taiwan Semiconductor doesn't market its chips to consumers. Instead, it produces chips for some of the tech leaders like Apple and Nvidia. However, as the electronics market loses steam, the chip industry may be going through a downward phase in its usual cycle.Still, Wall Street analysts project flat revenue this year and expect it to deliver 21% growth in 2024. While earnings will likely fall this year thanks to a weaker chip market, Taiwan Semiconductor still trades a cheap 15.3 times forward earnings, which uses 2023 projections.Although the business may be in a downturn now, the chips Taiwan Semiconductor currently produces are still a worthwhile upgrade. Additionally, it's likely working on new technology that will become the next evolution in the chip space.With the stock sporting a 2% dividend yield, Taiwan Semiconductor is a strong candidate for a company that can outperform the market and double within six years.2. PrologisReal estate investment trusts (REITs) are tax-advantaged because they are required to pay out 90% of their earnings as dividends. REITs don't have to pay taxes on the dividends they pay because of this classification, so it provides shareholders with a generous dividend payout. Prologis is classified as a REIT and focuses on industrial warehouses. If you've seen a distribution center with concrete walls that sprung up seemingly overnight, that's the type of building Prologis owns. However, with warehouses in 28 cities in the U.S. and only in 19 different countires, Prologis has a lot of room for growth.The company estimates $2.7 trillion in goods flow through its distribution centers annually, accounting for nearly 3% of the world's GDP. With the current trend of commerce, it's likely that more distribution centers will be needed globally to support e-commerce buildout. With 98% of its buildings occupied during the fourth quarter, it's clear that the market opportunity hasn't been saturated either.Prologis also issued strong 2023 guidance, with core funds from operation (FFO, a metric REITs utilize to convey earnings better) expected to grow 9.5%. While that may not sound like market-crushing growth, it also pays a respectable 2.8% dividend yield. The growth and dividend combined yield a powerful combination that should fuel the stock to beat the market.With strong demand for warehouses still present, Prologis has a bright future ahead.3. VisaVisa's dividend isn't as generous as the others -- it only yields 0.75%. However, its growth potential surpasses Taiwan Semiconductor and Prologis.Visa's payment processing network is the largest of its kind and processed over $3 trillion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 (ended Dec. 31, 2022). From that $3 trillion, it generated $7.9 billion in revenue in the first quarter, indicating it takes about 0.26% of the volume it processes as fees for utilizing its network.As the world moves to a cashless society, Visa's processed payment volume will continue to grow, giving it the opportunity to expand its reach over the next six years. The stock is also historically cheap when assessed from a price-to-earnings standpoint.V PE Ratio data by YCharts.Additionally, Visa has paid a steadily growing dividend over the past 14 years and only pays out about 20% of its free cash flow, indicating management could substantially expand its dividend over the next decade.Visa is the largest payment processor of its kind, and it's unlikely we will revert to using more cash in the next six years, so Visa will stand to benefit from the shift. With Wall Street analysts projecting 10.4% and 11.1% growth in FY 2023 and 2024, Visa still has plenty of room to grow.Keep or reinvest the dividends?All three of these stocks more than doubled over the past six years, stomping the S&P 500. However, choosing to reinvest the dividends in the company instead of taking them paid off big time.V data by YCharts.On the bottom of the above chart is what happens when you reinvest the dividends; on the top is if you choose to take them in cash. As you can see, reinvesting the dividends made a huge difference in the performance of all three companies.If you don't need the cash flows and you believe the stock will outperform in the long run, then reinvesting dividends is a smart move. If I were to take a position in this trio today, I'd reinvest the dividends, as each company still has a bright future ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090628542,"gmtCreate":1643171330186,"gmtModify":1676533781686,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$998<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"$998<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"$998$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090628542","repostId":"9090321377","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9090321377,"gmtCreate":1643088903020,"gmtModify":1676533773198,"author":{"id":"3527667620927015","authorId":"3527667620927015","name":"Tiger_Earnings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849fb1fb43d93db3974fd09c5f65ff1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667620927015","authorIdStr":"3527667620927015"},"themes":[],"title":"Stock Prediction: The Closing Price of Tesla","htmlText":"Tesla will report 2021 fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday, Jan. 26, after the market close. Let‘s guess the closing price of Tesla.<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Tesla Q4 2021 deliveries Tesla already disclosed its Q4 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drives the vast majority of the company’s revenue.Earlier this month, Tesla increased its overall electric car production in Q4 by about 70% year-over-year to 305,840, which is the best result ever. The growth is related to the high production of the Model 3/Model Y (up 79% to 292,731), as the refreshed Model S/Model X duo is in the ramp-up phase (down 19% to 13,109).For the full year, Tesla delivered 936,172 vehicles, an 87% increase versus 2020 when it reported its first","listText":"Tesla will report 2021 fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday, Jan. 26, after the market close. Let‘s guess the closing price of Tesla.<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Tesla Q4 2021 deliveries Tesla already disclosed its Q4 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drives the vast majority of the company’s revenue.Earlier this month, Tesla increased its overall electric car production in Q4 by about 70% year-over-year to 305,840, which is the best result ever. The growth is related to the high production of the Model 3/Model Y (up 79% to 292,731), as the refreshed Model S/Model X duo is in the ramp-up phase (down 19% to 13,109).For the full year, Tesla delivered 936,172 vehicles, an 87% increase versus 2020 when it reported its first","text":"Tesla will report 2021 fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday, Jan. 26, after the market close. Let‘s guess the closing price of Tesla.$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla Q4 2021 deliveries Tesla already disclosed its Q4 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drives the vast majority of the company’s revenue.Earlier this month, Tesla increased its overall electric car production in Q4 by about 70% year-over-year to 305,840, which is the best result ever. The growth is related to the high production of the Model 3/Model Y (up 79% to 292,731), as the refreshed Model S/Model X duo is in the ramp-up phase (down 19% to 13,109).For the full year, Tesla delivered 936,172 vehicles, an 87% increase versus 2020 when it reported its first","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229f7cab7b15ed51da3f45adb2efb905","width":"1918","height":"843"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34da9a8b0001e828c5615c3ad170b6bd","width":"299","height":"168"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8270b0d532d60e7d7302d315421efd54","width":"948","height":"496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090321377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030461349,"gmtCreate":1645788048681,"gmtModify":1676534064301,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Take your profit and run far away!!!","listText":"Take your profit and run far away!!!","text":"Take your profit and run far away!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030461349","repostId":"9030523215","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9030523215,"gmtCreate":1645758927218,"gmtModify":1676534061901,"author":{"id":"3527667621665671","authorId":"3527667621665671","name":"Daily_Discussion","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6973ef3354e752778088dfd8ca725c82","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667621665671","authorIdStr":"3527667621665671"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀[Feb 25th]Trading plans that you can't miss from Tiger users","htmlText":"Hi,Tigers! Welcome to our official column:Daily Discussion! Here you can share your trading ideas, your opinions&nbsp;on&nbsp;market trends,the&nbsp;stocks you like(bullish on)or dislike(bearish on),and&nbsp;your investment performances,etc.. If you leave your thoughts in the comment area, you may receive Tiger Coins&nbsp;as reward&nbsp;which can be used at Gift Center! Below are Today's Key Takeaways. Top News Move the Market Tiger Community TOP10 Tickers  ⭐For The Daily Most Active Stocks in S&amp;P 500, please turn to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/9000000000000439\">@TigerObserver</a> ⭐For The Top 10 Popular Stcocks on WallStreetBets, Please turn to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/9000000000000419\">@WallStreet_Tiger</a> Daily Focus&nbsp;Friday Thursday&nbsp;Afternoon&nbsp;Market Recap The","listText":"Hi,Tigers! Welcome to our official column:Daily Discussion! Here you can share your trading ideas, your opinions&nbsp;on&nbsp;market trends,the&nbsp;stocks you like(bullish on)or dislike(bearish on),and&nbsp;your investment performances,etc.. If you leave your thoughts in the comment area, you may receive Tiger Coins&nbsp;as reward&nbsp;which can be used at Gift Center! Below are Today's Key Takeaways. Top News Move the Market Tiger Community TOP10 Tickers  ⭐For The Daily Most Active Stocks in S&amp;P 500, please turn to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/9000000000000439\">@TigerObserver</a> ⭐For The Top 10 Popular Stcocks on WallStreetBets, Please turn to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/9000000000000419\">@WallStreet_Tiger</a> Daily Focus&nbsp;Friday Thursday&nbsp;Afternoon&nbsp;Market Recap The","text":"Hi,Tigers! Welcome to our official column:Daily Discussion! Here you can share your trading ideas, your opinions on market trends,the stocks you like(bullish on)or dislike(bearish on),and your investment performances,etc.. If you leave your thoughts in the comment area, you may receive Tiger Coins as reward which can be used at Gift Center! Below are Today's Key Takeaways. Top News Move the Market Tiger Community TOP10 Tickers ⭐For The Daily Most Active Stocks in S&P 500, please turn to@TigerObserver ⭐For The Top 10 Popular Stcocks on WallStreetBets, Please turn to@WallStreet_Tiger Daily Focus Friday Thursday Afternoon Market Recap The","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3001c92ff1da73282eb3039158d402","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a037ca73888285a022c0bb014b0913","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d88973302eced66c7cfae721c56bebb","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030523215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992275157,"gmtCreate":1661329397381,"gmtModify":1676536498030,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lower than 10% compare 25th $278","listText":"Lower than 10% compare 25th $278","text":"Lower than 10% compare 25th $278","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992275157","repostId":"9992940413","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9992940413,"gmtCreate":1661253060021,"gmtModify":1676536483053,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"[Stock Prediction] How will Tesla close on Friday 26th August？","htmlText":"Tesla 's 3-for-1 split will take effect after the close of trading on Wednesday, Aug. 24. Investors will be able to buy and sell shares on a post-split basis for the first time on the morning of Thursday, Aug. 25.&nbsp;How will Tesla close on Friday 26th August？stock splits don’t affect a company’s total market capitalization because the price of each share will reflect the split.&nbsp;Stock splits don't have a fundamental impact on a company's business, but investors nevertheless often see them as a positive sign of optimism. Lower share prices can make it easier for small investors to buy shares. Since 1980, stocks that have split have typically gained about 25% one year after the move, compared with the broader market’s 9% increase, according to a Bank of America Corp. analysis as of Ma","listText":"Tesla 's 3-for-1 split will take effect after the close of trading on Wednesday, Aug. 24. Investors will be able to buy and sell shares on a post-split basis for the first time on the morning of Thursday, Aug. 25.&nbsp;How will Tesla close on Friday 26th August？stock splits don’t affect a company’s total market capitalization because the price of each share will reflect the split.&nbsp;Stock splits don't have a fundamental impact on a company's business, but investors nevertheless often see them as a positive sign of optimism. Lower share prices can make it easier for small investors to buy shares. Since 1980, stocks that have split have typically gained about 25% one year after the move, compared with the broader market’s 9% increase, according to a Bank of America Corp. analysis as of Ma","text":"Tesla 's 3-for-1 split will take effect after the close of trading on Wednesday, Aug. 24. Investors will be able to buy and sell shares on a post-split basis for the first time on the morning of Thursday, Aug. 25. How will Tesla close on Friday 26th August？stock splits don’t affect a company’s total market capitalization because the price of each share will reflect the split. Stock splits don't have a fundamental impact on a company's business, but investors nevertheless often see them as a positive sign of optimism. Lower share prices can make it easier for small investors to buy shares. Since 1980, stocks that have split have typically gained about 25% one year after the move, compared with the broader market’s 9% increase, according to a Bank of America Corp. analysis as of Ma","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f381b2d0b9b5200497f09ecd4b7a7c8a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992940413","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"vote":{"id":2075,"gmtBegin":1661253151712,"gmtEnd":1661518800120,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"How will Tesla close on Friday 26th August？","choices":[{"id":8272,"sort":1,"name":"Very Green (over 10%)","userSize":54,"voted":false},{"id":8273,"sort":2,"name":"Green (5% to 10%)","userSize":111,"voted":false},{"id":8274,"sort":3,"name":"Flat (-5% to 5%)","userSize":89,"voted":false},{"id":8275,"sort":4,"name":"Red (-10% to-5%)","userSize":36,"voted":false},{"id":8276,"sort":5,"name":"Very Red (below-10%)","userSize":15,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960983281,"gmtCreate":1668044269843,"gmtModify":1676538003222,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960983281","repostId":"1150183951","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150183951","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668038181,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150183951?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 07:56","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 美股全线收跌，特斯拉7天暴跌22%！比特币跌穿1.6万美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150183951","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股全线收跌，纳指、标普跌超2%，特斯拉7天暴跌22%；②币圈惊天风暴将至？比特币跌穿1.6万美元，两日累计下跌逾23%；③拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀。海外市场1、美国CPI公布前夕","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①隔夜美股全线收跌，纳指、标普跌超2%，特斯拉7天暴跌22%；②币圈惊天风暴将至？比特币跌穿1.6万美元，两日累计下跌逾23%；③拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6feb0294c918586b43a2b600c3016020\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>海外市场</p><p>1、美国CPI公布前夕美股收跌纳指、标普跌超2%</p><p>美股周三大幅收跌。美众院少数党领袖宣称夺回了对众议院的控制权。但参议院选情仍不明朗。美联储三号人物称美国长期通胀预期稳定，但通胀前景的不确定性上升。市场关注周四将公布的CPI通胀数据。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.95%，纳斯达克指数跌2.48%，标普500指数跌2.08%。</p><p>明星科技股尾盘跌幅扩大，但裁员超1.1万、约占公司员工总数13%的“元宇宙”Meta涨近9%后收涨超5%，至两周新高。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌超4%至2020年3月来最低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌超3%至6月下旬来最低。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超7%至2020年11月来最低，近7个交易日已暴跌22%，在440亿美元收购推特之后，马斯克出售约40亿美元的特斯拉持股。</p><p>区块链类股普跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">柯达</a>跌超23.5%，微策略跌约19.6%，网红券商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>跌超13.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌约12.3%，数字货币交易所Coinbase跌超9.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">亿邦国际</a>跌超5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>跌约4.9%。</p><p>其他市场方面，避险偏好盛行，虚拟货币大幅下跌，比特币跌破1.6万美元关口，两日累计下跌逾23%，续创2020年11月以来新低。</p><p>2、热门中概股普跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超14%</p><p>热门中概追随美股大盘下跌，纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）跌6.8%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌6.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌4.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌近5%，B站、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>ADR跌超6%，小鹏汽车跌超14%。</p><p>3、欧股周三收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌0.16%</p><p>欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.16%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数跌0.14%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.3%。</p><p>4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌3.5% 连续第三个交易日下跌</p><p>周三纽约商品交易所12月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.08美元，跌幅为3.5%，收于每桶85.83美元，创10月25日以来的最低收盘价。 美国上周原油库存攀升、以及疫情形势可能对未来的原油需求产生不利影响，均使原油价格承压。</p><p>5、纽约黄金期货周三收跌0.1%</p><p>纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.30美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1713.70美元。周二该期货价格攀升2.1%，创一个多月来的最高收盘价。投资者正在等待周四将公布的CPI通胀数据，预计该数据将对未来的美联储政策产生重要影响。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、美国总统拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀</p><p>当地时间11月9日，美国总统拜登就中期选举发表讲话。拜登指出此前媒体预测共和党将以压倒性优势胜出的情况并未发生。拜登重申在2024年竞选连任的意图，他或将在明年年初作出最终决定。</p><p>拜登在谈及通货膨胀时表示，他不能保证美国能够摆脱通货膨胀，但他将尽所能应对问题。</p><p>2、还要加息200基点？有投行开始押注美联储终端利率将达到6%</p><p>上周，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上宣布美联储将放慢加息步伐，但终端利率——加息周期的终点也会更高。</p><p>消息一出，华尔街也立即将目光转移到“本次周期将总共加息多少”的问题上。伴随着上周五公布的、强于预期的非农报告，一些投行的预测变得越来越大胆，认为终端利率将达到6%。</p><p>如果他们的预测属实，意味着美联储还需要在目前的基础上再加息200个基点，末期联邦基金利率将超过2006年高峰，逼近2000年以来的最高值。</p><p>3、美联储三号人物：长期通胀预期稳定 但通胀前景的不确定性上升</p><p>周三，FOMC永久票委、美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>表示，在美联储继续努力将物价恢复到理想水平之际，长期通胀预期仍相对稳定，这是个好消息。</p><p>虽然长期通胀预期锚定，但威廉姆斯认为，通胀前景的不确定性已经上升，并且还出现了一些奇怪的事态发展。他指出，值得进一步研究的一个令人惊讶的问题是，人们对未来通胀的看法分歧越来越大，包括预期通缩的人的比例很高，这对未来预示着什么。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>：美国CPI数据可能成为年底前美元走向的关键</p><p>花旗集团策略师Ben Randol表示，鉴于周四美国CPI数据发布前市场仓位很轻，该数据可能成为决定年底前美元走向的关键。如果通胀明显低于预期，“可能会令近期美元的大幅回落走势加速，并造成通胀见顶、美联储见顶的观点”。</p><p>5、乌克兰战场展现效用 欧盟有望在下周敲定共建自主卫星通信网络</p><p>据媒体周三援引知情人士报道，在俄乌冲突和减少对外国公司依赖的驱动下，欧盟成员国和欧洲议会有望在下周敲定一份价值60亿欧元的共建卫星互联网系统协议。</p><p>作为欧盟内部市场委员蒂埃里·布雷顿有关“战略自主”的政治议程，欧盟在今年2月已经提出过共同建设和运营卫星网络的倡议。大半年过后，这一提案优先级和重要性也出现了显著的提升。</p><p>6、特朗普预定成为中期选举最大输家：借势冲击大选的算盘已打空</p><p>随着美国2022中期选举进入计票阶段，围绕着政治权力的斗争终于进入揭晓结果的时间点。虽然眼下距离结果全部公开仍有一段时间，但即便是亲共和党的媒体福克斯新闻也不得不承认，预想中的“共和党大捷”恐怕不太有可能出现了。</p><p>不过考虑到共和党拿下众议院仍然是基准结局，所以今年的选举对于美国政治中心的大多数人来说，都是可以接受的结局，除了特朗普。</p><p>7、能源研究公司：没有俄罗斯的能源出口 欧洲仍然无法生存</p><p>能源研究公司Rystad energy表示，欧洲可能比以往任何时候都更接近于摆脱对俄罗斯的能源依赖，但它仍然离不开俄罗斯的天然气。</p><p>数据显示，自俄乌冲突以来，虽然俄罗斯通过管道向欧洲出口的天然气大幅下降，但液化天然气(LNG)却在上升。在3月至10月期间，欧洲从俄罗斯进口的LNG同比增长了20%。</p><p>8、德国经济发展评估咨询委员会：摆脱能源危机是当务之急</p><p>当地时间9日，德国经济发展评估咨询委员会向德国联邦政府提交了2022年度的经济分析报告。报告指出，脱碳、人口发展以及保持欧洲经济和货币联盟的稳定是德国经济面临的中长期挑战，但当前的重点主要在于如何摆脱能源危机。</p><p>针对这份报告，德国联邦总理朔尔茨表示，德国政府采取的一系列措施都是为了应对危机并保持社会凝聚力，德国也将致力于尽快推进能源转型。</p><p>9、英国将下调英国银行业利润附加税 以保持该行业竞争力</p><p>为了保护英国金融业的竞争力，英国财政大臣亨特将降低英国银行业的利润附加税，以化解掉企业税上调计划对该行业的一大部分影响。</p><p>除了目前税率为19%的公司税，英国银行业目前还需缴纳8%的利润附加税。两位知情官员透露，鉴于公司税税率将从4月份起上调至25%，亨特有意把银行的附加税下调至3%。</p><p>俄乌局势</p><p>1、俄外交部：俄粮食和化肥出口障碍仍未消除</p><p>俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃当地时间9日在新闻发布会上表示，俄罗斯是否延长黑海港口<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>外运协议，取决于该协议到期前，涉及对俄罗斯化肥和粮食出口的限制能否取消。这是黑海港口农产品外运协议的一部分，联合国方面对此已向俄方作出承诺，但目前仍然没有取得进展。美国和欧盟还在继续阻挠俄罗斯向全球市场出口化肥和农产品。</p><p>2、俄国防部宣布从赫尔松部分地区撤军至第聂伯河东岸</p><p>综合多家俄罗斯媒体报道，当地时间周三（11月9日），俄罗斯国防部长绍伊古同意俄罗斯集团军司令苏罗维金提出的建议，从赫尔松部分地区撤出部队，转移到第聂伯河东岸地带。</p><p>由于赫尔松州首府赫尔松市位于第聂伯河西岸，意味着俄军也将离开赫尔松市。苏罗维金表示，在全面评估现有情况后建议沿第聂伯河东岸进行防御，“我知道，这是一个非常艰难的决定。”</p><p>3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基召开最高统帅部会议</p><p>乌克兰媒体当地时间9日报道称，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天召开了最高统帅部会议。此次会议主要关注前线局势，协调乌克兰武装部队在前线的军事行动以及听取了乌克兰武装部队武器弹药保障以及为冬季做准备情况的汇报。此外与会者分析了乌能源设施恢复进展以及就乌克兰关键基础设施实施保护的措施。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、流媒体亏损大超预期迪士尼创2001年来最大单日跌幅</p><p>周二盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01009\">国际娱乐</a>业巨头迪士尼发布截至10月1日的第四财季报告，其中营收201.5亿美元，逊于分析师预期的212.4亿美元；EPS也只有30美分（预期55美分）。虽然流媒体迪士尼+的订阅用户数增长1210万人至1.64亿人，显著高于1.6亿的预期。但该业务一个季度就亏了14.7亿美元，远超分析师预期。截至周三收盘，迪士尼大跌13.16%，创2001年来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>2、马斯克出售近40亿美元特斯拉股票 公司股价续刷近两年新低</p><p>据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的数据，马斯克分别于11月4日、7日和8日出售了545万股、965万股和440万股的特斯拉股票，合计价值约39.5亿美元。文件显示，目前马斯克间接持有的特斯拉股票减少到约4.456亿股。截至收盘，特斯拉大跌7.17%，股价续刷近两年新低。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1100777022\" target=\"_blank\">暴裁1.1万人！Meta史上首次大裁员就“震撼硅谷”</a></p><p>当地时间周三，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>首席执行官扎克伯格宣布了大规模裁员计划，裁员总数高达1.1万人，约占团队总数的13％，并将招聘冻结期延长至明年一季度。根据报道，这也是Meta公司创立以来的首次裁员。受此消息影响，Meta盘中一度涨超8%，随后受到大盘拖累回落，最终收涨5.18%。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282186849\" target=\"_blank\">推特提交进军支付业务领域的文件</a></p><p>推特最近提交给美国财政部金融犯罪执法网（Financial Crimes Enforcement Network，简称FinCEN）的文件显示，这家社交媒体公司上周提交了注册文件，为进军支付领域铺平道路。</p><p>在上个月以440亿美元收购推特之后，马斯克正寻求对该公司进行转型。据悉，开展转账、兑换货币或现金支票等业务的企业必须在FinCEN注册，并向该机构报告可疑交易。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282184264\" target=\"_blank\">币圈惊天风暴将至？据称FTX财务黑洞成谜 币安倾向放弃收购</a></p><p>综合多家媒体报道，知情人士透露，在启动尽职调查仅几个小时后，币安高管发现FTX财务存在一个“黑洞”，令内部怀疑是否应该出资收购这家原竞争对手。</p><p>昨日，币安创始人赵长鹏在社交媒体上宣布，由于FTX遭遇“严重的流动性紧缩”向其求助，币安与其签订了非约束性的收购意向书。</p><p>在确认收购前，币安需要在未来几天内完成全面的尽职调查。据称尽职调查可能需要30天，之后币安可以完全收购FTX，或部分收购FTX，也可以完全退出交易。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282862471\" target=\"_blank\">瑞信下血本发行美元债 超过9%的收益率在投资级债券中异常罕见</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>集团正在美国发行一笔债券，其收益率之高，对于一家投资级发行人而言实属罕见。</p><p>据一位知情人士透露，陷入困境的瑞信正在发行20亿美元11年期固息转浮息债券，初步价格指引较美国国债高512.5个基点。它的华尔街同行花旗集团周三也在发行11年期债券，但利差只有瑞信债券的半数水平。512.5个基点的利差意味着债券收益率将超过9%。</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282182891\" target=\"_blank\">苹果与亚马逊被指控合谋推高iPhone等产品价格</a></p><p>苹果和亚马逊周三在一项反垄断诉讼中被指控串通一气，将几乎所有其他苹果新产品的第三方经销商从亚马逊的网站上删除，从而推高iPhone和iPad的价格。</p><p>在西雅图联邦法院提出的集体诉讼反对的是2019年1月生效的一项协议，据协议苹果向亚马逊提供高达10%的折扣，作为交换亚马逊只让600家经销商中的7家留在其平台上。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282218209\" target=\"_blank\">元宇宙热门股Roblox超预期亏损，游戏收入增长急剧放缓</a></p><p>周三盘前，“元宇宙第一股” 罗布乐思发布三季度业绩，其中营收5.17亿美元微增2%，归属股东净亏损接近3亿美元，均严重逊于预期。同时公司的每日活跃用户平均预订量(ABPDAU)仅为11.94美元，同比下降11%。受此消息影响，罗布乐思周三收盘大跌21%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 美股全线收跌，特斯拉7天暴跌22%！比特币跌穿1.6万美元</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 美股全线收跌，特斯拉7天暴跌22%！比特币跌穿1.6万美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-10 07:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①隔夜美股全线收跌，纳指、标普跌超2%，特斯拉7天暴跌22%；②币圈惊天风暴将至？比特币跌穿1.6万美元，两日累计下跌逾23%；③拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6feb0294c918586b43a2b600c3016020\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>海外市场</p><p>1、美国CPI公布前夕美股收跌纳指、标普跌超2%</p><p>美股周三大幅收跌。美众院少数党领袖宣称夺回了对众议院的控制权。但参议院选情仍不明朗。美联储三号人物称美国长期通胀预期稳定，但通胀前景的不确定性上升。市场关注周四将公布的CPI通胀数据。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.95%，纳斯达克指数跌2.48%，标普500指数跌2.08%。</p><p>明星科技股尾盘跌幅扩大，但裁员超1.1万、约占公司员工总数13%的“元宇宙”Meta涨近9%后收涨超5%，至两周新高。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌超4%至2020年3月来最低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌超3%至6月下旬来最低。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超7%至2020年11月来最低，近7个交易日已暴跌22%，在440亿美元收购推特之后，马斯克出售约40亿美元的特斯拉持股。</p><p>区块链类股普跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">柯达</a>跌超23.5%，微策略跌约19.6%，网红券商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>跌超13.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌约12.3%，数字货币交易所Coinbase跌超9.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">亿邦国际</a>跌超5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>跌约4.9%。</p><p>其他市场方面，避险偏好盛行，虚拟货币大幅下跌，比特币跌破1.6万美元关口，两日累计下跌逾23%，续创2020年11月以来新低。</p><p>2、热门中概股普跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超14%</p><p>热门中概追随美股大盘下跌，纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）跌6.8%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌6.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌4.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌近5%，B站、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>ADR跌超6%，小鹏汽车跌超14%。</p><p>3、欧股周三收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌0.16%</p><p>欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.16%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数跌0.14%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.3%。</p><p>4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌3.5% 连续第三个交易日下跌</p><p>周三纽约商品交易所12月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.08美元，跌幅为3.5%，收于每桶85.83美元，创10月25日以来的最低收盘价。 美国上周原油库存攀升、以及疫情形势可能对未来的原油需求产生不利影响，均使原油价格承压。</p><p>5、纽约黄金期货周三收跌0.1%</p><p>纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.30美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1713.70美元。周二该期货价格攀升2.1%，创一个多月来的最高收盘价。投资者正在等待周四将公布的CPI通胀数据，预计该数据将对未来的美联储政策产生重要影响。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、美国总统拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀</p><p>当地时间11月9日，美国总统拜登就中期选举发表讲话。拜登指出此前媒体预测共和党将以压倒性优势胜出的情况并未发生。拜登重申在2024年竞选连任的意图，他或将在明年年初作出最终决定。</p><p>拜登在谈及通货膨胀时表示，他不能保证美国能够摆脱通货膨胀，但他将尽所能应对问题。</p><p>2、还要加息200基点？有投行开始押注美联储终端利率将达到6%</p><p>上周，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上宣布美联储将放慢加息步伐，但终端利率——加息周期的终点也会更高。</p><p>消息一出，华尔街也立即将目光转移到“本次周期将总共加息多少”的问题上。伴随着上周五公布的、强于预期的非农报告，一些投行的预测变得越来越大胆，认为终端利率将达到6%。</p><p>如果他们的预测属实，意味着美联储还需要在目前的基础上再加息200个基点，末期联邦基金利率将超过2006年高峰，逼近2000年以来的最高值。</p><p>3、美联储三号人物：长期通胀预期稳定 但通胀前景的不确定性上升</p><p>周三，FOMC永久票委、美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>表示，在美联储继续努力将物价恢复到理想水平之际，长期通胀预期仍相对稳定，这是个好消息。</p><p>虽然长期通胀预期锚定，但威廉姆斯认为，通胀前景的不确定性已经上升，并且还出现了一些奇怪的事态发展。他指出，值得进一步研究的一个令人惊讶的问题是，人们对未来通胀的看法分歧越来越大，包括预期通缩的人的比例很高，这对未来预示着什么。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>：美国CPI数据可能成为年底前美元走向的关键</p><p>花旗集团策略师Ben Randol表示，鉴于周四美国CPI数据发布前市场仓位很轻，该数据可能成为决定年底前美元走向的关键。如果通胀明显低于预期，“可能会令近期美元的大幅回落走势加速，并造成通胀见顶、美联储见顶的观点”。</p><p>5、乌克兰战场展现效用 欧盟有望在下周敲定共建自主卫星通信网络</p><p>据媒体周三援引知情人士报道，在俄乌冲突和减少对外国公司依赖的驱动下，欧盟成员国和欧洲议会有望在下周敲定一份价值60亿欧元的共建卫星互联网系统协议。</p><p>作为欧盟内部市场委员蒂埃里·布雷顿有关“战略自主”的政治议程，欧盟在今年2月已经提出过共同建设和运营卫星网络的倡议。大半年过后，这一提案优先级和重要性也出现了显著的提升。</p><p>6、特朗普预定成为中期选举最大输家：借势冲击大选的算盘已打空</p><p>随着美国2022中期选举进入计票阶段，围绕着政治权力的斗争终于进入揭晓结果的时间点。虽然眼下距离结果全部公开仍有一段时间，但即便是亲共和党的媒体福克斯新闻也不得不承认，预想中的“共和党大捷”恐怕不太有可能出现了。</p><p>不过考虑到共和党拿下众议院仍然是基准结局，所以今年的选举对于美国政治中心的大多数人来说，都是可以接受的结局，除了特朗普。</p><p>7、能源研究公司：没有俄罗斯的能源出口 欧洲仍然无法生存</p><p>能源研究公司Rystad energy表示，欧洲可能比以往任何时候都更接近于摆脱对俄罗斯的能源依赖，但它仍然离不开俄罗斯的天然气。</p><p>数据显示，自俄乌冲突以来，虽然俄罗斯通过管道向欧洲出口的天然气大幅下降，但液化天然气(LNG)却在上升。在3月至10月期间，欧洲从俄罗斯进口的LNG同比增长了20%。</p><p>8、德国经济发展评估咨询委员会：摆脱能源危机是当务之急</p><p>当地时间9日，德国经济发展评估咨询委员会向德国联邦政府提交了2022年度的经济分析报告。报告指出，脱碳、人口发展以及保持欧洲经济和货币联盟的稳定是德国经济面临的中长期挑战，但当前的重点主要在于如何摆脱能源危机。</p><p>针对这份报告，德国联邦总理朔尔茨表示，德国政府采取的一系列措施都是为了应对危机并保持社会凝聚力，德国也将致力于尽快推进能源转型。</p><p>9、英国将下调英国银行业利润附加税 以保持该行业竞争力</p><p>为了保护英国金融业的竞争力，英国财政大臣亨特将降低英国银行业的利润附加税，以化解掉企业税上调计划对该行业的一大部分影响。</p><p>除了目前税率为19%的公司税，英国银行业目前还需缴纳8%的利润附加税。两位知情官员透露，鉴于公司税税率将从4月份起上调至25%，亨特有意把银行的附加税下调至3%。</p><p>俄乌局势</p><p>1、俄外交部：俄粮食和化肥出口障碍仍未消除</p><p>俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃当地时间9日在新闻发布会上表示，俄罗斯是否延长黑海港口<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>外运协议，取决于该协议到期前，涉及对俄罗斯化肥和粮食出口的限制能否取消。这是黑海港口农产品外运协议的一部分，联合国方面对此已向俄方作出承诺，但目前仍然没有取得进展。美国和欧盟还在继续阻挠俄罗斯向全球市场出口化肥和农产品。</p><p>2、俄国防部宣布从赫尔松部分地区撤军至第聂伯河东岸</p><p>综合多家俄罗斯媒体报道，当地时间周三（11月9日），俄罗斯国防部长绍伊古同意俄罗斯集团军司令苏罗维金提出的建议，从赫尔松部分地区撤出部队，转移到第聂伯河东岸地带。</p><p>由于赫尔松州首府赫尔松市位于第聂伯河西岸，意味着俄军也将离开赫尔松市。苏罗维金表示，在全面评估现有情况后建议沿第聂伯河东岸进行防御，“我知道，这是一个非常艰难的决定。”</p><p>3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基召开最高统帅部会议</p><p>乌克兰媒体当地时间9日报道称，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天召开了最高统帅部会议。此次会议主要关注前线局势，协调乌克兰武装部队在前线的军事行动以及听取了乌克兰武装部队武器弹药保障以及为冬季做准备情况的汇报。此外与会者分析了乌能源设施恢复进展以及就乌克兰关键基础设施实施保护的措施。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、流媒体亏损大超预期迪士尼创2001年来最大单日跌幅</p><p>周二盘后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01009\">国际娱乐</a>业巨头迪士尼发布截至10月1日的第四财季报告，其中营收201.5亿美元，逊于分析师预期的212.4亿美元；EPS也只有30美分（预期55美分）。虽然流媒体迪士尼+的订阅用户数增长1210万人至1.64亿人，显著高于1.6亿的预期。但该业务一个季度就亏了14.7亿美元，远超分析师预期。截至周三收盘，迪士尼大跌13.16%，创2001年来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>2、马斯克出售近40亿美元特斯拉股票 公司股价续刷近两年新低</p><p>据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的数据，马斯克分别于11月4日、7日和8日出售了545万股、965万股和440万股的特斯拉股票，合计价值约39.5亿美元。文件显示，目前马斯克间接持有的特斯拉股票减少到约4.456亿股。截至收盘，特斯拉大跌7.17%，股价续刷近两年新低。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1100777022\" target=\"_blank\">暴裁1.1万人！Meta史上首次大裁员就“震撼硅谷”</a></p><p>当地时间周三，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>首席执行官扎克伯格宣布了大规模裁员计划，裁员总数高达1.1万人，约占团队总数的13％，并将招聘冻结期延长至明年一季度。根据报道，这也是Meta公司创立以来的首次裁员。受此消息影响，Meta盘中一度涨超8%，随后受到大盘拖累回落，最终收涨5.18%。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282186849\" target=\"_blank\">推特提交进军支付业务领域的文件</a></p><p>推特最近提交给美国财政部金融犯罪执法网（Financial Crimes Enforcement Network，简称FinCEN）的文件显示，这家社交媒体公司上周提交了注册文件，为进军支付领域铺平道路。</p><p>在上个月以440亿美元收购推特之后，马斯克正寻求对该公司进行转型。据悉，开展转账、兑换货币或现金支票等业务的企业必须在FinCEN注册，并向该机构报告可疑交易。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282184264\" target=\"_blank\">币圈惊天风暴将至？据称FTX财务黑洞成谜 币安倾向放弃收购</a></p><p>综合多家媒体报道，知情人士透露，在启动尽职调查仅几个小时后，币安高管发现FTX财务存在一个“黑洞”，令内部怀疑是否应该出资收购这家原竞争对手。</p><p>昨日，币安创始人赵长鹏在社交媒体上宣布，由于FTX遭遇“严重的流动性紧缩”向其求助，币安与其签订了非约束性的收购意向书。</p><p>在确认收购前，币安需要在未来几天内完成全面的尽职调查。据称尽职调查可能需要30天，之后币安可以完全收购FTX，或部分收购FTX，也可以完全退出交易。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282862471\" target=\"_blank\">瑞信下血本发行美元债 超过9%的收益率在投资级债券中异常罕见</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>集团正在美国发行一笔债券，其收益率之高，对于一家投资级发行人而言实属罕见。</p><p>据一位知情人士透露，陷入困境的瑞信正在发行20亿美元11年期固息转浮息债券，初步价格指引较美国国债高512.5个基点。它的华尔街同行花旗集团周三也在发行11年期债券，但利差只有瑞信债券的半数水平。512.5个基点的利差意味着债券收益率将超过9%。</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282182891\" target=\"_blank\">苹果与亚马逊被指控合谋推高iPhone等产品价格</a></p><p>苹果和亚马逊周三在一项反垄断诉讼中被指控串通一气，将几乎所有其他苹果新产品的第三方经销商从亚马逊的网站上删除，从而推高iPhone和iPad的价格。</p><p>在西雅图联邦法院提出的集体诉讼反对的是2019年1月生效的一项协议，据协议苹果向亚马逊提供高达10%的折扣，作为交换亚马逊只让600家经销商中的7家留在其平台上。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2282218209\" target=\"_blank\">元宇宙热门股Roblox超预期亏损，游戏收入增长急剧放缓</a></p><p>周三盘前，“元宇宙第一股” 罗布乐思发布三季度业绩，其中营收5.17亿美元微增2%，归属股东净亏损接近3亿美元，均严重逊于预期。同时公司的每日活跃用户平均预订量(ABPDAU)仅为11.94美元，同比下降11%。受此消息影响，罗布乐思周三收盘大跌21%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EBON":"亿邦国际","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","CAN":"嘉楠科技","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150183951","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股全线收跌，纳指、标普跌超2%，特斯拉7天暴跌22%；②币圈惊天风暴将至？比特币跌穿1.6万美元，两日累计下跌逾23%；③拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀。海外市场1、美国CPI公布前夕美股收跌纳指、标普跌超2%美股周三大幅收跌。美众院少数党领袖宣称夺回了对众议院的控制权。但参议院选情仍不明朗。美联储三号人物称美国长期通胀预期稳定，但通胀前景的不确定性上升。市场关注周四将公布的CPI通胀数据。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.95%，纳斯达克指数跌2.48%，标普500指数跌2.08%。明星科技股尾盘跌幅扩大，但裁员超1.1万、约占公司员工总数13%的“元宇宙”Meta涨近9%后收涨超5%，至两周新高。亚马逊跌超4%至2020年3月来最低，苹果跌超3%至6月下旬来最低。特斯拉跌超7%至2020年11月来最低，近7个交易日已暴跌22%，在440亿美元收购推特之后，马斯克出售约40亿美元的特斯拉持股。区块链类股普跌。柯达跌超23.5%，微策略跌约19.6%，网红券商Robinhood跌超13.7%，嘉楠科技跌约12.3%，数字货币交易所Coinbase跌超9.5%，亿邦国际跌超5.6%，第九城市跌约4.9%。其他市场方面，避险偏好盛行，虚拟货币大幅下跌，比特币跌破1.6万美元关口，两日累计下跌逾23%，续创2020年11月以来新低。2、热门中概股普跌小鹏汽车跌超14%热门中概追随美股大盘下跌，纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）跌6.8%。京东和百度跌6.7%，拼多多跌6%，网易跌4.7%，阿里巴巴跌近5%，B站、蔚来汽车和理想汽车跌12%，腾讯ADR跌超6%，小鹏汽车跌超14%。3、欧股周三收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌0.16%欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.16%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，英国富时100指数跌0.14%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.3%。4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌3.5% 连续第三个交易日下跌周三纽约商品交易所12月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.08美元，跌幅为3.5%，收于每桶85.83美元，创10月25日以来的最低收盘价。 美国上周原油库存攀升、以及疫情形势可能对未来的原油需求产生不利影响，均使原油价格承压。5、纽约黄金期货周三收跌0.1%纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.30美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1713.70美元。周二该期货价格攀升2.1%，创一个多月来的最高收盘价。投资者正在等待周四将公布的CPI通胀数据，预计该数据将对未来的美联储政策产生重要影响。国际宏观1、美国总统拜登：无法保证美国能摆脱通货膨胀当地时间11月9日，美国总统拜登就中期选举发表讲话。拜登指出此前媒体预测共和党将以压倒性优势胜出的情况并未发生。拜登重申在2024年竞选连任的意图，他或将在明年年初作出最终决定。拜登在谈及通货膨胀时表示，他不能保证美国能够摆脱通货膨胀，但他将尽所能应对问题。2、还要加息200基点？有投行开始押注美联储终端利率将达到6%上周，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上宣布美联储将放慢加息步伐，但终端利率——加息周期的终点也会更高。消息一出，华尔街也立即将目光转移到“本次周期将总共加息多少”的问题上。伴随着上周五公布的、强于预期的非农报告，一些投行的预测变得越来越大胆，认为终端利率将达到6%。如果他们的预测属实，意味着美联储还需要在目前的基础上再加息200个基点，末期联邦基金利率将超过2006年高峰，逼近2000年以来的最高值。3、美联储三号人物：长期通胀预期稳定 但通胀前景的不确定性上升周三，FOMC永久票委、美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，在美联储继续努力将物价恢复到理想水平之际，长期通胀预期仍相对稳定，这是个好消息。虽然长期通胀预期锚定，但威廉姆斯认为，通胀前景的不确定性已经上升，并且还出现了一些奇怪的事态发展。他指出，值得进一步研究的一个令人惊讶的问题是，人们对未来通胀的看法分歧越来越大，包括预期通缩的人的比例很高，这对未来预示着什么。4、花旗：美国CPI数据可能成为年底前美元走向的关键花旗集团策略师Ben Randol表示，鉴于周四美国CPI数据发布前市场仓位很轻，该数据可能成为决定年底前美元走向的关键。如果通胀明显低于预期，“可能会令近期美元的大幅回落走势加速，并造成通胀见顶、美联储见顶的观点”。5、乌克兰战场展现效用 欧盟有望在下周敲定共建自主卫星通信网络据媒体周三援引知情人士报道，在俄乌冲突和减少对外国公司依赖的驱动下，欧盟成员国和欧洲议会有望在下周敲定一份价值60亿欧元的共建卫星互联网系统协议。作为欧盟内部市场委员蒂埃里·布雷顿有关“战略自主”的政治议程，欧盟在今年2月已经提出过共同建设和运营卫星网络的倡议。大半年过后，这一提案优先级和重要性也出现了显著的提升。6、特朗普预定成为中期选举最大输家：借势冲击大选的算盘已打空随着美国2022中期选举进入计票阶段，围绕着政治权力的斗争终于进入揭晓结果的时间点。虽然眼下距离结果全部公开仍有一段时间，但即便是亲共和党的媒体福克斯新闻也不得不承认，预想中的“共和党大捷”恐怕不太有可能出现了。不过考虑到共和党拿下众议院仍然是基准结局，所以今年的选举对于美国政治中心的大多数人来说，都是可以接受的结局，除了特朗普。7、能源研究公司：没有俄罗斯的能源出口 欧洲仍然无法生存能源研究公司Rystad energy表示，欧洲可能比以往任何时候都更接近于摆脱对俄罗斯的能源依赖，但它仍然离不开俄罗斯的天然气。数据显示，自俄乌冲突以来，虽然俄罗斯通过管道向欧洲出口的天然气大幅下降，但液化天然气(LNG)却在上升。在3月至10月期间，欧洲从俄罗斯进口的LNG同比增长了20%。8、德国经济发展评估咨询委员会：摆脱能源危机是当务之急当地时间9日，德国经济发展评估咨询委员会向德国联邦政府提交了2022年度的经济分析报告。报告指出，脱碳、人口发展以及保持欧洲经济和货币联盟的稳定是德国经济面临的中长期挑战，但当前的重点主要在于如何摆脱能源危机。针对这份报告，德国联邦总理朔尔茨表示，德国政府采取的一系列措施都是为了应对危机并保持社会凝聚力，德国也将致力于尽快推进能源转型。9、英国将下调英国银行业利润附加税 以保持该行业竞争力为了保护英国金融业的竞争力，英国财政大臣亨特将降低英国银行业的利润附加税，以化解掉企业税上调计划对该行业的一大部分影响。除了目前税率为19%的公司税，英国银行业目前还需缴纳8%的利润附加税。两位知情官员透露，鉴于公司税税率将从4月份起上调至25%，亨特有意把银行的附加税下调至3%。俄乌局势1、俄外交部：俄粮食和化肥出口障碍仍未消除俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃当地时间9日在新闻发布会上表示，俄罗斯是否延长黑海港口农产品外运协议，取决于该协议到期前，涉及对俄罗斯化肥和粮食出口的限制能否取消。这是黑海港口农产品外运协议的一部分，联合国方面对此已向俄方作出承诺，但目前仍然没有取得进展。美国和欧盟还在继续阻挠俄罗斯向全球市场出口化肥和农产品。2、俄国防部宣布从赫尔松部分地区撤军至第聂伯河东岸综合多家俄罗斯媒体报道，当地时间周三（11月9日），俄罗斯国防部长绍伊古同意俄罗斯集团军司令苏罗维金提出的建议，从赫尔松部分地区撤出部队，转移到第聂伯河东岸地带。由于赫尔松州首府赫尔松市位于第聂伯河西岸，意味着俄军也将离开赫尔松市。苏罗维金表示，在全面评估现有情况后建议沿第聂伯河东岸进行防御，“我知道，这是一个非常艰难的决定。”3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基召开最高统帅部会议乌克兰媒体当地时间9日报道称，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天召开了最高统帅部会议。此次会议主要关注前线局势，协调乌克兰武装部队在前线的军事行动以及听取了乌克兰武装部队武器弹药保障以及为冬季做准备情况的汇报。此外与会者分析了乌能源设施恢复进展以及就乌克兰关键基础设施实施保护的措施。公司新闻1、流媒体亏损大超预期迪士尼创2001年来最大单日跌幅周二盘后，国际娱乐业巨头迪士尼发布截至10月1日的第四财季报告，其中营收201.5亿美元，逊于分析师预期的212.4亿美元；EPS也只有30美分（预期55美分）。虽然流媒体迪士尼+的订阅用户数增长1210万人至1.64亿人，显著高于1.6亿的预期。但该业务一个季度就亏了14.7亿美元，远超分析师预期。截至周三收盘，迪士尼大跌13.16%，创2001年来最大单日跌幅。2、马斯克出售近40亿美元特斯拉股票 公司股价续刷近两年新低据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的数据，马斯克分别于11月4日、7日和8日出售了545万股、965万股和440万股的特斯拉股票，合计价值约39.5亿美元。文件显示，目前马斯克间接持有的特斯拉股票减少到约4.456亿股。截至收盘，特斯拉大跌7.17%，股价续刷近两年新低。3、暴裁1.1万人！Meta史上首次大裁员就“震撼硅谷”当地时间周三，Meta Platforms首席执行官扎克伯格宣布了大规模裁员计划，裁员总数高达1.1万人，约占团队总数的13％，并将招聘冻结期延长至明年一季度。根据报道，这也是Meta公司创立以来的首次裁员。受此消息影响，Meta盘中一度涨超8%，随后受到大盘拖累回落，最终收涨5.18%。4、推特提交进军支付业务领域的文件推特最近提交给美国财政部金融犯罪执法网（Financial Crimes Enforcement Network，简称FinCEN）的文件显示，这家社交媒体公司上周提交了注册文件，为进军支付领域铺平道路。在上个月以440亿美元收购推特之后，马斯克正寻求对该公司进行转型。据悉，开展转账、兑换货币或现金支票等业务的企业必须在FinCEN注册，并向该机构报告可疑交易。5、币圈惊天风暴将至？据称FTX财务黑洞成谜 币安倾向放弃收购综合多家媒体报道，知情人士透露，在启动尽职调查仅几个小时后，币安高管发现FTX财务存在一个“黑洞”，令内部怀疑是否应该出资收购这家原竞争对手。昨日，币安创始人赵长鹏在社交媒体上宣布，由于FTX遭遇“严重的流动性紧缩”向其求助，币安与其签订了非约束性的收购意向书。在确认收购前，币安需要在未来几天内完成全面的尽职调查。据称尽职调查可能需要30天，之后币安可以完全收购FTX，或部分收购FTX，也可以完全退出交易。6、瑞信下血本发行美元债 超过9%的收益率在投资级债券中异常罕见瑞士信贷集团正在美国发行一笔债券，其收益率之高，对于一家投资级发行人而言实属罕见。据一位知情人士透露，陷入困境的瑞信正在发行20亿美元11年期固息转浮息债券，初步价格指引较美国国债高512.5个基点。它的华尔街同行花旗集团周三也在发行11年期债券，但利差只有瑞信债券的半数水平。512.5个基点的利差意味着债券收益率将超过9%。7、苹果与亚马逊被指控合谋推高iPhone等产品价格苹果和亚马逊周三在一项反垄断诉讼中被指控串通一气，将几乎所有其他苹果新产品的第三方经销商从亚马逊的网站上删除，从而推高iPhone和iPad的价格。在西雅图联邦法院提出的集体诉讼反对的是2019年1月生效的一项协议，据协议苹果向亚马逊提供高达10%的折扣，作为交换亚马逊只让600家经销商中的7家留在其平台上。8、元宇宙热门股Roblox超预期亏损，游戏收入增长急剧放缓周三盘前，“元宇宙第一股” 罗布乐思发布三季度业绩，其中营收5.17亿美元微增2%，归属股东净亏损接近3亿美元，均严重逊于预期。同时公司的每日活跃用户平均预订量(ABPDAU)仅为11.94美元，同比下降11%。受此消息影响，罗布乐思周三收盘大跌21%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984639960,"gmtCreate":1667613982050,"gmtModify":1676537944535,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984639960","repostId":"1171406492","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171406492","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667194500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171406492?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 13:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"提醒：11月6日起美国进入冬令时，美股延后一小时开盘","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171406492","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2022年冬令时将于2022年11月6日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）开始，至2023年3月12日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）结束，届时美国股票市场的常规交易时段对应","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国2022年冬令时将于2022年11月6日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）开始，至2023年3月12日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）结束，届时美国股票市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间延后1小时，即将变为周一至周五22：30到次日凌晨5：00；11月7日为进入冬令时后美股的首个交易日。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fc66d2a201150ba1433d6859e54ee39\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>交易时间</b></p><p>美国东部时间：9：30~16：00 北京时间：22：30~次日5：00</p><p><b>盘前交易时间</b></p><p>美国东部时间：4：00~9：30 北京时间：17：00~22：30</p><p><b>盘后交易时间</b></p><p>美国东部时间：16：00~20：00 北京时间：5：00~9：00</p><p>（注：冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2773028f257c91524ed0ae1a4ce270a\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：11月6日起美国进入冬令时，美股延后一小时开盘</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n提醒：11月6日起美国进入冬令时，美股延后一小时开盘\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-31 13:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国2022年冬令时将于2022年11月6日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）开始，至2023年3月12日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）结束，届时美国股票市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间延后1小时，即将变为周一至周五22：30到次日凌晨5：00；11月7日为进入冬令时后美股的首个交易日。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fc66d2a201150ba1433d6859e54ee39\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>交易时间</b></p><p>美国东部时间：9：30~16：00 北京时间：22：30~次日5：00</p><p><b>盘前交易时间</b></p><p>美国东部时间：4：00~9：30 北京时间：17：00~22：30</p><p><b>盘后交易时间</b></p><p>美国东部时间：16：00~20：00 北京时间：5：00~9：00</p><p>（注：冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2773028f257c91524ed0ae1a4ce270a\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2773028f257c91524ed0ae1a4ce270a","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171406492","content_text":"美国2022年冬令时将于2022年11月6日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）开始，至2023年3月12日当地时间早上02：00（北京时间15：00）结束，届时美国股票市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间延后1小时，即将变为周一至周五22：30到次日凌晨5：00；11月7日为进入冬令时后美股的首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：9：30~16：00 北京时间：22：30~次日5：00盘前交易时间美国东部时间：4：00~9：30 北京时间：17：00~22：30盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00 北京时间：5：00~9：00（注：冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982995864,"gmtCreate":1667075813858,"gmtModify":1676537856076,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/301089\">$拓新药业(301089)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/301089\">$拓新药业(301089)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$拓新药业(301089)$[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982995864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981718082,"gmtCreate":1666595347546,"gmtModify":1676537774655,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/000999\">$华润三九(000999)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;Super!!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/000999\">$华润三九(000999)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;Super!!!!","text":"$华润三九(000999)$[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] Super!!!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d47eefcdbd3d9a9cdbb5b29a540a8d","width":"640","height":"976"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981718082","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":47,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257029845598224,"gmtCreate":1703785441797,"gmtModify":1703785446510,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least $5500 in January 2024!!!","listText":"At least $5500 in January 2024!!!","text":"At least $5500 in January 2024!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257029845598224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940298743,"gmtCreate":1677917763683,"gmtModify":1677917768307,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940298743","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We&#39;ve seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.</li><li>Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&amp;P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.</li><li>However, I&#39;m highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.</li><li>Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.</li><li>Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my &#34;all-in&#34; bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my &#34;Stocks Are Heading Higher&#34; article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.</p><p>Moreover, we&#39;re seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.</p><p>SPX - At Another Inflection Point<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e4c150b976cb211ccb6f5f67170f37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com)</p><p>The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there&#39;s a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.</p><p><b>There&#39;s a Chance</b></p><p>Although the probability is relatively low, SPX&#39;s support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it&#39;s premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.</p><p>Why Inflation Remains a Big Problem</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10057ace35cbf6a1921aa9cae02f6d0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There&#39;s been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed&#39;s target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January&#39;s CPI came in hotter than expected.</p><p><b>The Recent CPI Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7c22ef79685f6f2789bc39233660b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI (January)(Investing.com )</p><p>The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month&#39;s reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it&#39;s not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.</p><p><b>PCE Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100421b03f101dd14bf7039f266d679c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PCE inflation(Investing.com )</p><p>The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month&#39;s 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it&#39;s the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.</p><p><b>Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?</b></p><p>Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as &#34;transitory&#34; as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.</p><p><b>The Worsening Economy</b></p><p>Have you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they&#39;re not likely to go away anytime soon. Let&#39;s put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that&#39;s come out recently.</p><p>Just from the start of February, we&#39;ve seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.</p><p><b>Is the Labor Market an Exception?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada4e0ca1e2a60decab85dee6c4f940a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jobs data(Investing.com)</p><p>The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We&#39;ve recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Not Cheap Anymore</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen many companies&#39; earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we&#39;ve seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.</p><p><b>Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0cae380760ab0af564889c1e421d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E(multpl.com)</p><p>We&#39;ve seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted &#34;CAPE&#34;) ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.</p><p>Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom &#34;all-in&#34; buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964909006,"gmtCreate":1670042790606,"gmtModify":1676538294701,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002424\">$贵州百灵(002424)$&nbsp;</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;target $40!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002424\">$贵州百灵(002424)$&nbsp;</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;target $40!!!","text":"$贵州百灵(002424)$ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] target $40!!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6dafc5f7d70286b278a066b2769fbb22","width":"640","height":"976"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964909006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960294305,"gmtCreate":1668163712207,"gmtModify":1676538023215,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All money turn to gold and silver!!!","listText":"All money turn to gold and silver!!!","text":"All money turn to gold and silver!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960294305","repostId":"9960328143","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9960328143,"gmtCreate":1668077110482,"gmtModify":1676538008883,"author":{"id":"4106546596749190","authorId":"4106546596749190","name":"Tiger_AU","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/389f94c108c37b450e63a265a5cad778","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106546596749190","authorIdStr":"4106546596749190"},"themes":[],"title":"[Events] What would you do if you were a billionaire?","htmlText":"G’Day, mate!We're giving away Tiger Coins and merchandise and would like to invite you to participate in the following activity.Forbes has released its annual ranking of the world’s richest people, with 2,668 people on the list (which is 87 less than just 12 months ago).The world’s richest billionaires comprise many well-known names - Elon Musk has been crowned in first place for the first time with his $2.9 billion fortune. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffett all also make the top 10 in third, fifth, and sixth place respectively.Forbes’ real-time data shows that 41 Australian billionaires have made the list of the world’s richest billionaires.&nbsp;Billionaires in the mining, software and manufacturing industries feature heavily, but also retail, casino, investment, construction, a","listText":"G’Day, mate!We're giving away Tiger Coins and merchandise and would like to invite you to participate in the following activity.Forbes has released its annual ranking of the world’s richest people, with 2,668 people on the list (which is 87 less than just 12 months ago).The world’s richest billionaires comprise many well-known names - Elon Musk has been crowned in first place for the first time with his $2.9 billion fortune. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffett all also make the top 10 in third, fifth, and sixth place respectively.Forbes’ real-time data shows that 41 Australian billionaires have made the list of the world’s richest billionaires.&nbsp;Billionaires in the mining, software and manufacturing industries feature heavily, but also retail, casino, investment, construction, a","text":"G’Day, mate!We're giving away Tiger Coins and merchandise and would like to invite you to participate in the following activity.Forbes has released its annual ranking of the world’s richest people, with 2,668 people on the list (which is 87 less than just 12 months ago).The world’s richest billionaires comprise many well-known names - Elon Musk has been crowned in first place for the first time with his $2.9 billion fortune. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffett all also make the top 10 in third, fifth, and sixth place respectively.Forbes’ real-time data shows that 41 Australian billionaires have made the list of the world’s richest billionaires. Billionaires in the mining, software and manufacturing industries feature heavily, but also retail, casino, investment, construction, 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red!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915722156","repostId":"9915217262","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9915217262,"gmtCreate":1665044618856,"gmtModify":1676537548861,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"[PREDICTION] How will TESLA close on Friday 7 Oct?","htmlText":"Click to vote. Guess How will&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> close on Friday 7 Oct&nbsp;? If you get correct answers, you can get 10 Tiger coins.Elon Musk and Twitter Inc&nbsp;may reach an agreement to end their litigation in coming days, clearing the way for the world's richest person to close his$44 billion dealfor the social media firm, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.Musk proposed to Twitter late on Monday he would change course and abide by his April agreement to buy the company for $54.20 per share, if Twitter dropped its litigation against him.&nbsp;There is no clear indication as to what motivated Musk's legal team to make a settlement offer. The news affected both companies' share prices.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TWTR\">$T</a>","listText":"Click to vote. Guess How will&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> close on Friday 7 Oct&nbsp;? If you get correct answers, you can get 10 Tiger coins.Elon Musk and Twitter Inc&nbsp;may reach an agreement to end their litigation in coming days, clearing the way for the world's richest person to close his$44 billion dealfor the social media firm, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.Musk proposed to Twitter late on Monday he would change course and abide by his April agreement to buy the company for $54.20 per share, if Twitter dropped its litigation against him.&nbsp;There is no clear indication as to what motivated Musk's legal team to make a settlement offer. The news affected both companies' share prices.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TWTR\">$T</a>","text":"Click to vote. Guess How will $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ close on Friday 7 Oct ? If you get correct answers, you can get 10 Tiger coins.Elon Musk and Twitter Inc may reach an agreement to end their litigation in coming days, clearing the way for the world's richest person to close his$44 billion dealfor the social media firm, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.Musk proposed to Twitter late on Monday he would change course and abide by his April agreement to buy the company for $54.20 per share, if Twitter dropped its litigation against him. There is no clear indication as to what motivated Musk's legal team to make a settlement offer. The news affected both companies' share prices.$T","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ab72464908d1871a5212d24771dd2c0","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f48117fbf64b2a63a1dd66128a5fb3e2","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/624afbb8f0f112ab4654f3dd0f081158","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915217262","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"vote":{"id":2171,"gmtBegin":1665044786442,"gmtEnd":1665151200520,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"How will TESLA close on Friday 7 Oct?","choices":[{"id":8503,"sort":1,"name":"Green (over 3%)","userSize":66,"voted":false},{"id":8504,"sort":2,"name":"Flat (-3% to 3%)","userSize":151,"voted":false},{"id":8505,"sort":3,"name":"Red (below-3%)","userSize":167,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936466528,"gmtCreate":1662806388164,"gmtModify":1676537144346,"author":{"id":"3578107586884499","authorId":"3578107586884499","name":"Teong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efb603df00b2300b15ae0b6e06c7632","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578107586884499","authorIdStr":"3578107586884499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"United kingdom will seprate to 4 in future!!!","listText":"United kingdom will seprate to 4 in future!!!","text":"United kingdom will seprate to 4 in future!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936466528","repostId":"9936360111","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9936360111,"gmtCreate":1662707991233,"gmtModify":1676537124209,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"How Will UK & Commonwealth Go After the Legendary Queen Was Gone?","htmlText":"London Bridge is Down&nbsp;-&nbsp;On&nbsp;8&nbsp;Sept, Queen Elizabeth II died at the age of 96 at Balmoral Castle in Scotland, ending a 70-year reign as the monarch of the United Kingdom and the British Commonwealth.Yesterday, Buckingham Palace said the Queen&nbsp;was&nbsp;under medical supervision.Until&nbsp;4&nbsp;pm&nbsp;local&nbsp;time, the code to inform the Queen's death came out, \"London Bridge is&nbsp;down\"The legendary life of the Queen&nbsp;Elizabeth IIBorn in London on April 21, 1926, Elizabeth&nbsp;was the eldest daughter of the Duke of York and the grandfather of George V.Photo from googleHer&nbsp;life&nbsp;and&nbsp;reign&nbsp;was&nbsp;lengendary&nbsp;as&nbsp;she&nbsp;made&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;records&nbsp;and&nbsp;gained&nbsp;so&nbsp;many&nbsp;titles. Lived&nbsp;through&nbsp;w","listText":"London Bridge is Down&nbsp;-&nbsp;On&nbsp;8&nbsp;Sept, Queen Elizabeth II died at the age of 96 at Balmoral Castle in Scotland, ending a 70-year reign as the monarch of the United Kingdom and the British Commonwealth.Yesterday, Buckingham Palace said the Queen&nbsp;was&nbsp;under medical supervision.Until&nbsp;4&nbsp;pm&nbsp;local&nbsp;time, the code to inform the Queen's death came out, \"London Bridge is&nbsp;down\"The legendary life of the Queen&nbsp;Elizabeth IIBorn in London on April 21, 1926, Elizabeth&nbsp;was the eldest daughter of the Duke of York and the grandfather of George V.Photo from googleHer&nbsp;life&nbsp;and&nbsp;reign&nbsp;was&nbsp;lengendary&nbsp;as&nbsp;she&nbsp;made&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;records&nbsp;and&nbsp;gained&nbsp;so&nbsp;many&nbsp;titles. Lived&nbsp;through&nbsp;w","text":"London Bridge is Down - On 8 Sept, Queen Elizabeth II died at the age of 96 at Balmoral Castle in Scotland, ending a 70-year reign as the monarch of the United Kingdom and the British Commonwealth.Yesterday, Buckingham Palace said the Queen was under medical supervision.Until 4 pm local time, the code to inform the Queen's death came out, \"London Bridge is down\"The legendary life of the Queen Elizabeth IIBorn in London on April 21, 1926, Elizabeth was the eldest daughter of the Duke of York and the grandfather of George V.Photo from googleHer life and reign was lengendary as she made multiple records and gained so many titles. Lived through w","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/285733791e6365ce3c96c882193aa6ee","width":"896","height":"1120"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb9ba84f0cb5baa50c4e60f9ac6fa6c3","width":"660","height":"643"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd0c609b0fd45b33fc358c833fedd6a3","width":"640","height":"725"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936360111","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}