Chiweii personal page - To The Moon

Chiweii

Chiweii

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01-14

Last day to roll the dice

01-13

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

01-12

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

01-11

Roll the dice again and good luck

01-10

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

01-10

Roll roll roll get lucky

01-09

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

01-08

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

01-07

[Grin] [Grin] [Grin] [Grin]

01-06

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

01-05

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

01-04

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

01-03

[Love] [Love] [Love] [Love] [Love] [Love]

01-02

[LOL] [LOL] [LOL] [LOL] [LOL]

01-01

Happy 2024![Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

2023-12-31

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2023-12-30

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

2023-12-29

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2023-12-28

Looking forward to the next airdrop

2023-12-27

Here we go again in 2023

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257125179899968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256805054865608,"gmtCreate":1703730541255,"gmtModify":1703730545304,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward to the next airdrop","listText":"Looking forward to the next airdrop","text":"Looking forward to the next airdrop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256805054865608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256502171115688,"gmtCreate":1703641744434,"gmtModify":1703641748468,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here we go again in 2023","listText":"Here we go again in 2023","text":"Here we go again in 2023","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256502171115688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":893437175,"gmtCreate":1628294891797,"gmtModify":1703504580444,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dip more and buy","listText":"Dip more and buy","text":"Dip more and buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893437175","repostId":"1122174975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122174975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628257533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122174975?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122174975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 6)&nbsp;$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 0.41%; $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ , $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ fell over 1%; $Li Auto(LI)$ fell 0.80%.","content":"<p>(Aug 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> fell 0.41%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a> fell over 1%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> fell 0.80%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc49234e47a8e48665d95c05d103786\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-06 21:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> fell 0.41%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a> fell over 1%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> fell 0.80%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc49234e47a8e48665d95c05d103786\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122174975","content_text":"(Aug 6) Tesla Motors fell 0.41%; NIO Inc. , XPeng Inc. fell over 1%; Li Auto fell 0.80%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136303252,"gmtCreate":1621992714876,"gmtModify":1704365607633,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth buying. Looking rosy ahead and if market downturn after split, it is time to buy more!","listText":"Worth buying. Looking rosy ahead and if market downturn after split, it is time to buy more!","text":"Worth buying. Looking rosy ahead and if market downturn after split, it is time to buy more!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136303252","repostId":"1106657602","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584063457502160","authorId":"3584063457502160","name":"spaceGRN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9892e24b16b97bdcd552a3dc221e8ae1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584063457502160","authorIdStr":"3584063457502160"},"content":"So... is it better to get before the spilt or after.. pls advise.. I'm greenhore [LOL]","text":"So... is it better to get before the spilt or after.. pls advise.. I'm greenhore [LOL]","html":"So... is it better to get before the spilt or after.. pls advise.. I'm greenhore [LOL]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343957041,"gmtCreate":1617671742683,"gmtModify":1704701594910,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth considering and add to portfolio","listText":"Worth considering and add to portfolio","text":"Worth considering and add to portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343957041","repostId":"1188368649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188368649","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1617670773,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188368649?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electric Vehicle Showdown: Tesla Vs. Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto — How Q1 Deliveries Stacked Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188368649","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The quarterly scorecards for the electric vehicle manufacturers are in and despite industry-wide constraints and macroeconomic handicaps, performances for the month of March, as well as the first quarter, have been strong.Here's a comparative take on first-quarter deliveries of Tesla, Inc.TSLA 4.43%and the Chinese EV playersLi Auto Inc.LI 1.23%,XPeng Inc.XPEV 2.57%andNIO LimitedNIO 0.87%:. XPeng, which has a SUV named G3 and a sedan named P7, said its first-quarter deliveries totaled 13,340. Thi","content":"<p>The quarterly scorecards for the electric vehicle&nbsp;manufacturers are in&nbsp;and despite industry-wide constraints and macroeconomic handicaps, performances for the month of March, as well as the first quarter, have been strong.</p>\n<p>Here's a comparative take on first-quarter deliveries of&nbsp;<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>TSLA 4.43%and the Chinese EV players<b>Li Auto Inc.</b>LI 1.23%,<b>XPeng Inc.</b>XPEV 2.57%and<b>NIO Limited</b>NIO 0.87%:</p>\n<p><b>Q1 EV Scorecard:</b>Tesladelivered184,800 vehicles in the first quarter, with 99% of these being Model 3/Y vehicles. This represented a 2.3% quarterly increase and a 109% year-over-year jump.</p>\n<p>In comparison, Nio's first-quarter deliveries jumped 423% year-over-year to 20,060 vehicles. This represented a 15.6% quarter-over-quarter increase. The company currently sells three SUV models, namely ES6, ES8 and EC6.</p>\n<p>XPeng, which has a SUV named G3 and a sedan named P7, said its first-quarter deliveries totaled 13,340. This represents 487% year-over-year growth and a 2.9% quarter-over-quarter rise.</p>\n<p>Li Auto, which sells Li ONE SUV, reported deliveries of 12,579 for the first quarter, a climb of 334.4% from last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, deliveries fell 13%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b0fedd727db600b525c682d2a1b09a\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"182\">For Nio and Xpeng,quarterly performancesrepresented the biggest ever on record.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways:</b>Going by absolute numbers, Tesla by far is the largest player in the EV arena. Nio's first-quarter deliveries were roughly 11% of what Tesla sold in the quarter. The EV market is turning out to be a crowded field&nbsp;with legacy automakers, pure-play EV companies, as well as tech companies, all flexing their muscles.</p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, the market is likely to get more fragmented than ever before, and incumbents will have a true challenge in maintaining or growing their share. The first-mover advantage has placed Tesla in a dominant position in the market, which others might find too difficult to challenge.</p>\n<p>However, Nio stands out in terms of growth. The company managed to grow decently both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.</p>\n<p><b>Looking&nbsp;Forward:</b>Sell-side is largely bullish on the EV industry as a whole. The Biden Administration's EV&nbsp;commitment and&nbsp;brisk demand in China and Europe are likely to propel the EV sector into a \"Golden Age,\" with a new auto supply of OEMs, battery, recycling, commercial vehicles, trucks and&nbsp;fleet conversions being built over the next decade, Wedbush's Daniel Ives said in a recent note.For Nio and Xpeng,quarterly performancesrepresented the biggest ever on record.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways:</b>Going by absolute numbers, Tesla by far is the largest player in the EV arena. Nio's first-quarter deliveries were roughly 11% of what Tesla sold in the quarter. The EV market is turning out to be a crowded field&nbsp;with legacy automakers, pure-play EV companies, as well as tech companies, all flexing their muscles.</p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, the market is likely to get more fragmented than ever before, and incumbents will have a true challenge in maintaining or growing their share. The first-mover advantage has placed Tesla in a dominant position in the market, which others might find too difficult to challenge.</p>\n<p>However, Nio stands out in terms of growth. The company managed to grow decently both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.</p>\n<p><b>Looking&nbsp;Forward:</b>Sell-side is largely bullish on the EV industry as a whole. The Biden Administration's EV&nbsp;commitment and&nbsp;brisk demand in China and Europe are likely to propel the EV sector into a \"Golden Age,\" with a new auto supply of OEMs, battery, recycling, commercial vehicles, trucks and&nbsp;fleet conversions being built over the next decade, Wedbush's Daniel Ives said in a recent note.</p>\n<p>The analyst sees EV stocks moving 30-40% higher the rest of the year as the Street further digests this transformational growth on the horizon.</p>\n<p>Those firms which pursue innovation&nbsp;in technology and services, are customer-centric and provide value for buyers will&nbsp;leave the others behind&nbsp;in this \"hot-and-happening\"&nbsp;market.</p>\n<p><b>EV Price Action:</b>Reacting to the quarterly numbers, Tesla shares were up 4.43% to $691.05. Nio and XPeng and Li Auto shares are lower following Thursday's upside in reaction to their numbers.</p>\n<p>Nio was down 0.88% to $39.31, XPeng was down 2.54% to $36.01&nbsp;and Li Auto was down 1.23% to $24.94.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electric Vehicle Showdown: Tesla Vs. Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto — How Q1 Deliveries Stacked Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectric Vehicle Showdown: Tesla Vs. Nio Vs. XPeng Vs. Li Auto — How Q1 Deliveries Stacked Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-06 08:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The quarterly scorecards for the electric vehicle&nbsp;manufacturers are in&nbsp;and despite industry-wide constraints and macroeconomic handicaps, performances for the month of March, as well as the first quarter, have been strong.</p>\n<p>Here's a comparative take on first-quarter deliveries of&nbsp;<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>TSLA 4.43%and the Chinese EV players<b>Li Auto Inc.</b>LI 1.23%,<b>XPeng Inc.</b>XPEV 2.57%and<b>NIO Limited</b>NIO 0.87%:</p>\n<p><b>Q1 EV Scorecard:</b>Tesladelivered184,800 vehicles in the first quarter, with 99% of these being Model 3/Y vehicles. This represented a 2.3% quarterly increase and a 109% year-over-year jump.</p>\n<p>In comparison, Nio's first-quarter deliveries jumped 423% year-over-year to 20,060 vehicles. This represented a 15.6% quarter-over-quarter increase. The company currently sells three SUV models, namely ES6, ES8 and EC6.</p>\n<p>XPeng, which has a SUV named G3 and a sedan named P7, said its first-quarter deliveries totaled 13,340. This represents 487% year-over-year growth and a 2.9% quarter-over-quarter rise.</p>\n<p>Li Auto, which sells Li ONE SUV, reported deliveries of 12,579 for the first quarter, a climb of 334.4% from last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, deliveries fell 13%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b0fedd727db600b525c682d2a1b09a\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"182\">For Nio and Xpeng,quarterly performancesrepresented the biggest ever on record.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways:</b>Going by absolute numbers, Tesla by far is the largest player in the EV arena. Nio's first-quarter deliveries were roughly 11% of what Tesla sold in the quarter. The EV market is turning out to be a crowded field&nbsp;with legacy automakers, pure-play EV companies, as well as tech companies, all flexing their muscles.</p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, the market is likely to get more fragmented than ever before, and incumbents will have a true challenge in maintaining or growing their share. The first-mover advantage has placed Tesla in a dominant position in the market, which others might find too difficult to challenge.</p>\n<p>However, Nio stands out in terms of growth. The company managed to grow decently both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.</p>\n<p><b>Looking&nbsp;Forward:</b>Sell-side is largely bullish on the EV industry as a whole. The Biden Administration's EV&nbsp;commitment and&nbsp;brisk demand in China and Europe are likely to propel the EV sector into a \"Golden Age,\" with a new auto supply of OEMs, battery, recycling, commercial vehicles, trucks and&nbsp;fleet conversions being built over the next decade, Wedbush's Daniel Ives said in a recent note.For Nio and Xpeng,quarterly performancesrepresented the biggest ever on record.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways:</b>Going by absolute numbers, Tesla by far is the largest player in the EV arena. Nio's first-quarter deliveries were roughly 11% of what Tesla sold in the quarter. The EV market is turning out to be a crowded field&nbsp;with legacy automakers, pure-play EV companies, as well as tech companies, all flexing their muscles.</p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, the market is likely to get more fragmented than ever before, and incumbents will have a true challenge in maintaining or growing their share. The first-mover advantage has placed Tesla in a dominant position in the market, which others might find too difficult to challenge.</p>\n<p>However, Nio stands out in terms of growth. The company managed to grow decently both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.</p>\n<p><b>Looking&nbsp;Forward:</b>Sell-side is largely bullish on the EV industry as a whole. The Biden Administration's EV&nbsp;commitment and&nbsp;brisk demand in China and Europe are likely to propel the EV sector into a \"Golden Age,\" with a new auto supply of OEMs, battery, recycling, commercial vehicles, trucks and&nbsp;fleet conversions being built over the next decade, Wedbush's Daniel Ives said in a recent note.</p>\n<p>The analyst sees EV stocks moving 30-40% higher the rest of the year as the Street further digests this transformational growth on the horizon.</p>\n<p>Those firms which pursue innovation&nbsp;in technology and services, are customer-centric and provide value for buyers will&nbsp;leave the others behind&nbsp;in this \"hot-and-happening\"&nbsp;market.</p>\n<p><b>EV Price Action:</b>Reacting to the quarterly numbers, Tesla shares were up 4.43% to $691.05. Nio and XPeng and Li Auto shares are lower following Thursday's upside in reaction to their numbers.</p>\n<p>Nio was down 0.88% to $39.31, XPeng was down 2.54% to $36.01&nbsp;and Li Auto was down 1.23% to $24.94.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188368649","content_text":"The quarterly scorecards for the electric vehicle manufacturers are in and despite industry-wide constraints and macroeconomic handicaps, performances for the month of March, as well as the first quarter, have been strong.\nHere's a comparative take on first-quarter deliveries of Tesla, Inc.TSLA 4.43%and the Chinese EV playersLi Auto Inc.LI 1.23%,XPeng Inc.XPEV 2.57%andNIO LimitedNIO 0.87%:\nQ1 EV Scorecard:Tesladelivered184,800 vehicles in the first quarter, with 99% of these being Model 3/Y vehicles. This represented a 2.3% quarterly increase and a 109% year-over-year jump.\nIn comparison, Nio's first-quarter deliveries jumped 423% year-over-year to 20,060 vehicles. This represented a 15.6% quarter-over-quarter increase. The company currently sells three SUV models, namely ES6, ES8 and EC6.\nXPeng, which has a SUV named G3 and a sedan named P7, said its first-quarter deliveries totaled 13,340. This represents 487% year-over-year growth and a 2.9% quarter-over-quarter rise.\nLi Auto, which sells Li ONE SUV, reported deliveries of 12,579 for the first quarter, a climb of 334.4% from last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, deliveries fell 13%.\nFor Nio and Xpeng,quarterly performancesrepresented the biggest ever on record.\nTakeaways:Going by absolute numbers, Tesla by far is the largest player in the EV arena. Nio's first-quarter deliveries were roughly 11% of what Tesla sold in the quarter. The EV market is turning out to be a crowded field with legacy automakers, pure-play EV companies, as well as tech companies, all flexing their muscles.\nAgainst this backdrop, the market is likely to get more fragmented than ever before, and incumbents will have a true challenge in maintaining or growing their share. The first-mover advantage has placed Tesla in a dominant position in the market, which others might find too difficult to challenge.\nHowever, Nio stands out in terms of growth. The company managed to grow decently both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.\nLooking Forward:Sell-side is largely bullish on the EV industry as a whole. The Biden Administration's EV commitment and brisk demand in China and Europe are likely to propel the EV sector into a \"Golden Age,\" with a new auto supply of OEMs, battery, recycling, commercial vehicles, trucks and fleet conversions being built over the next decade, Wedbush's Daniel Ives said in a recent note.For Nio and Xpeng,quarterly performancesrepresented the biggest ever on record.\nTakeaways:Going by absolute numbers, Tesla by far is the largest player in the EV arena. Nio's first-quarter deliveries were roughly 11% of what Tesla sold in the quarter. The EV market is turning out to be a crowded field with legacy automakers, pure-play EV companies, as well as tech companies, all flexing their muscles.\nAgainst this backdrop, the market is likely to get more fragmented than ever before, and incumbents will have a true challenge in maintaining or growing their share. The first-mover advantage has placed Tesla in a dominant position in the market, which others might find too difficult to challenge.\nHowever, Nio stands out in terms of growth. The company managed to grow decently both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.\nLooking Forward:Sell-side is largely bullish on the EV industry as a whole. The Biden Administration's EV commitment and brisk demand in China and Europe are likely to propel the EV sector into a \"Golden Age,\" with a new auto supply of OEMs, battery, recycling, commercial vehicles, trucks and fleet conversions being built over the next decade, Wedbush's Daniel Ives said in a recent note.\nThe analyst sees EV stocks moving 30-40% higher the rest of the year as the Street further digests this transformational growth on the horizon.\nThose firms which pursue innovation in technology and services, are customer-centric and provide value for buyers will leave the others behind in this \"hot-and-happening\" market.\nEV Price Action:Reacting to the quarterly numbers, Tesla shares were up 4.43% to $691.05. Nio and XPeng and Li Auto shares are lower following Thursday's upside in reaction to their numbers.\nNio was down 0.88% to $39.31, XPeng was down 2.54% to $36.01 and Li Auto was down 1.23% to $24.94.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563067678826056","authorId":"3563067678826056","name":"Donovon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c49b742fc2acedd0736cd6626a70aee","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563067678826056","authorIdStr":"3563067678826056"},"content":"Nio and tesla better options","text":"Nio and tesla better options","html":"Nio and tesla better options"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154269766,"gmtCreate":1625530229555,"gmtModify":1703743024227,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Part of my portfolio","listText":"Part of my portfolio","text":"Part of my portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154269766","repostId":"1110936297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110936297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625036047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110936297?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 14:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Act Quickly Before The Run To $172","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110936297","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.But I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.Apple is on the cusp of what should be a pre-earnings run and an imminent breakout of a bullish consolidation pattern.I have made it no secret that I’m a big fan of Apple. In fact, I wrote a very bullish piece about six weeks ago, detailing how I thought Apple was in the process of consolidating before a big breakout. In this article, I want to ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.</li>\n <li>But I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.</li>\n <li>Apple is on the cusp of what should be a pre-earnings run and an imminent breakout of a bullish consolidation pattern.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219c4f41554f7e91be4c02cd87e3f8d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>fMing Yeung/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>I have made it no secret that I’m a big fan of&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>(AAPL). In fact, I wrote a very bullish piece about six weeks ago, detailing how I thought Apple was in the process of consolidating before a&nbsp;big breakout. In this article, I want to update readers on the progress of that, as well as addressing some concerns that could be potentially bearish. But the spoiler alert is that I’m still very much in the camp of Apple setting up a breakout, and I think the company’s typical pre-earnings move is likely the catalyst to see that happen.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37078c4ff01404a43176bb2e2555834d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>To start, I’ve annotated the same ascending triangle formation I noted six weeks ago, because it is still very much in play. The stock is very near the top of the triangle today, so what happens when/if it gets to $136/$137 will determine if the breakout is imminent or if we need at least one more test of the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the triangle. Whether that occurs or not doesn’t change my outlook; only the timing of it.</p>\n<p>Ascending triangles measure upside targets on breakouts equal to the top and bottom of the widest part of the triangle. In this case, the top of the triangle is $137 and the bottom of the triangle, which was set in September of last year, was $102. That means that this triangle pattern has a measured price target – after the breakout – of $35 higher ($137 minus $102), and with the breakout point being $137 or so, that implies we canexpect Apple to hit $172, give or take. Now, that won’t happen immediately, of course, but that’s the kind of opportunity at hand here.</p>\n<p>What do you need to look for on a breakout? First, price action needs to decisively clear the breakout level of $137 and close above it. In addition, you want to see rising volume on the breakout – I’ve annotated declining volume in the triangle period, which is normal behavior – and you want to see rising momentum, we’ve got rising momentum today. So I’d expect a breakout to continue that, but these are the things you want to see on a breakout to ensure it has staying power.</p>\n<p>Finally, you’ll notice that I’ve added blue circles on the chart, and those represent the start of the ~4-week period prior to an earnings release. Apple has been<i>very</i>reliable in the past couple of years in terms of rallying into an earnings report, and I have no reason to think that will change. The gains are fairly large in most cases, with about half of them being in the double-digits, so this is a real catalyst for higher prices.</p>\n<p>The important thing to note is that we are about four weeks from the third quarter report, which typically takes place at the end of July. We are also at the top of the ascending triangle, which means that even a small pre-earnings run will likely result in a breakout, and that’s why I think the breakout is very near.</p>\n<p>To be clear, I’m reiterating my prior thesis that an ascending triangle breakout is coming; I just think we have a very clear catalyst now to make it sooner than later. I see the stock rallying into the earnings report, and if history is a guide, Apple will destroy expectations once again. In short, all is going to plan.</p>\n<p>The risk is that if Apple does break out of the triangle and earnings aren’t very good, the pattern could fail. That would negate my $172 price target, and we’d have to reassess. For now, the odds of that look low, and I’m still full steam ahead on the breakout coming pre-earnings.</p>\n<p><b>Why does Apple rally pre-earnings?</b></p>\n<p>To put it succinctly, Apple rallies pre-earnings because no matter how much analysts raise their targets going into the reports, Apple finds a way to beat them.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6233212bc10ea38f20e75d2ed0ab603e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is three years’ worth of data showing how Apple beats expectations, and by enormous margins in some cases. Apple is one of the largest and most-followed companies that has ever existed. So if any company should have an analyst community that knows how it will perform each quarter, it would be this one. However, its dominance in hardware and services revenue has proven too much for analysts over time to keep up with.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind a risk here is that if Apple does finally miss expectations, I have to imagine the stock will react extremely poorly. Thus, there is certainly risk in owning Apple through the earnings report, as with any other stock. But the company’s history of smashing expectations – particularly in the past year – means the odds of this are fairly low. Still, something to keep in mind from a risk perspective.</p>\n<p>In terms of a catalyst for rallying into the July report, Apple continues to see analysts scramble to keep up with its rising fortunes.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf56ca48e2364fd7314f9140bc3ab5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>The sharp upward revisions that began last summer continue unabated, and Apple’s earnings trajectory remains very much intact. I detailed this in my last piece so I’m simply saying that nothing has changed on this front, and that’s a very good thing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bd9aaadd1cc3a29d7b8e787296ab4b\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"110\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>I think you’ll struggle to find a company with a better earnings revision schedule, as the past three months have seen 36 EPS revisions, and<i>100%</i>of them were upward. That shows just how strong Apple’s earnings trajectory is, as analysts scramble to meet Apple’s outstanding performances. I love stocks with earnings revision charts like Apple’s because the bar is always rising, which means that the stock will follow suit.</p>\n<p><b>Not all is well</b></p>\n<p>Apple, to be fair, does face a huge amount of risks that are outside of its control. Many of them cropped up since my last report on Apple and so I want to balance my bullish position on the stock with some sobering reality to ensure readers are well-equipped to make an informed decision about whether or not Apple is right for their portfolio.</p>\n<p>First, the FTC made the headlines a few weeks ago by appointing&nbsp;Lina Khan, an outspoken and noted big tech critic, who feels certain companies have too much control over the behaviors of consumers. This is a noteworthy development because if the FTC wants to go after big tech, Apple is a very logical early target. I don’t see it impacting iPhone or other hardware sales but services revenue? Absolutely. This is a longer-term threat since antitrust rules take time to create, but Apple shareholders need to take this threat seriously.</p>\n<p>The&nbsp;White Houseis apparently on board with this line of thinking, and the&nbsp;House&nbsp;is actually considering legislation that would undertake to reign in the perceived control of big tech companies, including Apple's tendency to pre-install its own apps on Apple devices. Would that stop consumers from just going to the app store and downloading them? No, but it certainly isn't a<i>positive</i>&nbsp;catalyst.</p>\n<p>Apple is facing a similar threat in&nbsp;Germany&nbsp;and other places in the developed world, so it isn’t just a problem at home. Germany is assessing if Apple has “competition violations” to be addressed. So the issue is the same one being faced in the US, and the only two outcomes are neutral (nothing happens), or negative (antitrust action is taken).</p>\n<p>Apple is also still very much beholden to the never-ending trade war between&nbsp;China&nbsp;and the US, as the two countries constantly jockey for position with the highest stakes the world has ever seen in such a scuffle. Apple’s production process is potentially at risk, depending upon how ugly things get, adding some geopolitical risk to the stock's outlook. This goes both ways, and China employs a lot of people and generates a lot of cash from Apple’s production. So I’m not sure it is as one-sided as it seems, but the geopolitical risk is never a good thing, and Apple’s manufacturing needs set it up for such a risk.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I’ve enumerated a variety of potential issues Apple is facing, and I’ll be clear and say none of these are good things. The best possible outcome is that nothing changes, and the worst is that all come to fruition and Apple faces manufacturing challenges, as well as antitrust actions. These are real threats, but I also think they're already priced in.</p>\n<p>The threat of antitrust legislation or a trade war with China isn’t new by any stretch of the imagination and is not dissimilar to the threats that other tech giants like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Facebook (FB) face every day. This is par for the course if you’re a dominant tech company, and Apple certainly is. I don’t want to ignore these potential negative catalysts, but I don’t want to overreact, either.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind also that Apple continues to move higher over time despite this bad news, which is what winning stocks do. The fact that it is shrugging off these huge potential negative catalysts reinforces the bullish stance I already had on the stock.</p>\n<p>I detailed my bullishness on the company’s revenue generation, margins, buybacks, valuation, and more in the&nbsp;prior piece, and nothing has changed there. So I don’t want to waste your time going through it again. However, my fundamental stance on Apple hasn’t changed in the past six weeks, and if anything, continued upward revisions in EPS estimates have strengthened the bull case.</p>\n<p>The important thing is that shareholders must be aware of external threats, but also that we are seeing Apple get to the end of its very bullish consolidation pattern at the same time that it typically begins a pre-earnings run higher.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that I think Apple’s breakout is imminent, and that the pattern measures to $172 or so. This won’t happen overnight, but if you were looking to buy Apple, act quickly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Act Quickly Before The Run To $172</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Act Quickly Before The Run To $172\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 14:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437069-apple-act-quickly-before-the-run-to-172><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.\nBut I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.\nApple is on the cusp of what should ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437069-apple-act-quickly-before-the-run-to-172\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437069-apple-act-quickly-before-the-run-to-172","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110936297","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.\nBut I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.\nApple is on the cusp of what should be a pre-earnings run and an imminent breakout of a bullish consolidation pattern.\n\nfMing Yeung/Getty Images News\nI have made it no secret that I’m a big fan of Apple(AAPL). In fact, I wrote a very bullish piece about six weeks ago, detailing how I thought Apple was in the process of consolidating before a big breakout. In this article, I want to update readers on the progress of that, as well as addressing some concerns that could be potentially bearish. But the spoiler alert is that I’m still very much in the camp of Apple setting up a breakout, and I think the company’s typical pre-earnings move is likely the catalyst to see that happen.\nSource: StockCharts\nTo start, I’ve annotated the same ascending triangle formation I noted six weeks ago, because it is still very much in play. The stock is very near the top of the triangle today, so what happens when/if it gets to $136/$137 will determine if the breakout is imminent or if we need at least one more test of the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the triangle. Whether that occurs or not doesn’t change my outlook; only the timing of it.\nAscending triangles measure upside targets on breakouts equal to the top and bottom of the widest part of the triangle. In this case, the top of the triangle is $137 and the bottom of the triangle, which was set in September of last year, was $102. That means that this triangle pattern has a measured price target – after the breakout – of $35 higher ($137 minus $102), and with the breakout point being $137 or so, that implies we canexpect Apple to hit $172, give or take. Now, that won’t happen immediately, of course, but that’s the kind of opportunity at hand here.\nWhat do you need to look for on a breakout? First, price action needs to decisively clear the breakout level of $137 and close above it. In addition, you want to see rising volume on the breakout – I’ve annotated declining volume in the triangle period, which is normal behavior – and you want to see rising momentum, we’ve got rising momentum today. So I’d expect a breakout to continue that, but these are the things you want to see on a breakout to ensure it has staying power.\nFinally, you’ll notice that I’ve added blue circles on the chart, and those represent the start of the ~4-week period prior to an earnings release. Apple has beenveryreliable in the past couple of years in terms of rallying into an earnings report, and I have no reason to think that will change. The gains are fairly large in most cases, with about half of them being in the double-digits, so this is a real catalyst for higher prices.\nThe important thing to note is that we are about four weeks from the third quarter report, which typically takes place at the end of July. We are also at the top of the ascending triangle, which means that even a small pre-earnings run will likely result in a breakout, and that’s why I think the breakout is very near.\nTo be clear, I’m reiterating my prior thesis that an ascending triangle breakout is coming; I just think we have a very clear catalyst now to make it sooner than later. I see the stock rallying into the earnings report, and if history is a guide, Apple will destroy expectations once again. In short, all is going to plan.\nThe risk is that if Apple does break out of the triangle and earnings aren’t very good, the pattern could fail. That would negate my $172 price target, and we’d have to reassess. For now, the odds of that look low, and I’m still full steam ahead on the breakout coming pre-earnings.\nWhy does Apple rally pre-earnings?\nTo put it succinctly, Apple rallies pre-earnings because no matter how much analysts raise their targets going into the reports, Apple finds a way to beat them.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThis is three years’ worth of data showing how Apple beats expectations, and by enormous margins in some cases. Apple is one of the largest and most-followed companies that has ever existed. So if any company should have an analyst community that knows how it will perform each quarter, it would be this one. However, its dominance in hardware and services revenue has proven too much for analysts over time to keep up with.\nKeep in mind a risk here is that if Apple does finally miss expectations, I have to imagine the stock will react extremely poorly. Thus, there is certainly risk in owning Apple through the earnings report, as with any other stock. But the company’s history of smashing expectations – particularly in the past year – means the odds of this are fairly low. Still, something to keep in mind from a risk perspective.\nIn terms of a catalyst for rallying into the July report, Apple continues to see analysts scramble to keep up with its rising fortunes.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThe sharp upward revisions that began last summer continue unabated, and Apple’s earnings trajectory remains very much intact. I detailed this in my last piece so I’m simply saying that nothing has changed on this front, and that’s a very good thing.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI think you’ll struggle to find a company with a better earnings revision schedule, as the past three months have seen 36 EPS revisions, and100%of them were upward. That shows just how strong Apple’s earnings trajectory is, as analysts scramble to meet Apple’s outstanding performances. I love stocks with earnings revision charts like Apple’s because the bar is always rising, which means that the stock will follow suit.\nNot all is well\nApple, to be fair, does face a huge amount of risks that are outside of its control. Many of them cropped up since my last report on Apple and so I want to balance my bullish position on the stock with some sobering reality to ensure readers are well-equipped to make an informed decision about whether or not Apple is right for their portfolio.\nFirst, the FTC made the headlines a few weeks ago by appointing Lina Khan, an outspoken and noted big tech critic, who feels certain companies have too much control over the behaviors of consumers. This is a noteworthy development because if the FTC wants to go after big tech, Apple is a very logical early target. I don’t see it impacting iPhone or other hardware sales but services revenue? Absolutely. This is a longer-term threat since antitrust rules take time to create, but Apple shareholders need to take this threat seriously.\nThe White Houseis apparently on board with this line of thinking, and the House is actually considering legislation that would undertake to reign in the perceived control of big tech companies, including Apple's tendency to pre-install its own apps on Apple devices. Would that stop consumers from just going to the app store and downloading them? No, but it certainly isn't apositive catalyst.\nApple is facing a similar threat in Germany and other places in the developed world, so it isn’t just a problem at home. Germany is assessing if Apple has “competition violations” to be addressed. So the issue is the same one being faced in the US, and the only two outcomes are neutral (nothing happens), or negative (antitrust action is taken).\nApple is also still very much beholden to the never-ending trade war between China and the US, as the two countries constantly jockey for position with the highest stakes the world has ever seen in such a scuffle. Apple’s production process is potentially at risk, depending upon how ugly things get, adding some geopolitical risk to the stock's outlook. This goes both ways, and China employs a lot of people and generates a lot of cash from Apple’s production. So I’m not sure it is as one-sided as it seems, but the geopolitical risk is never a good thing, and Apple’s manufacturing needs set it up for such a risk.\nFinal thoughts\nI’ve enumerated a variety of potential issues Apple is facing, and I’ll be clear and say none of these are good things. The best possible outcome is that nothing changes, and the worst is that all come to fruition and Apple faces manufacturing challenges, as well as antitrust actions. These are real threats, but I also think they're already priced in.\nThe threat of antitrust legislation or a trade war with China isn’t new by any stretch of the imagination and is not dissimilar to the threats that other tech giants like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Facebook (FB) face every day. This is par for the course if you’re a dominant tech company, and Apple certainly is. I don’t want to ignore these potential negative catalysts, but I don’t want to overreact, either.\nKeep in mind also that Apple continues to move higher over time despite this bad news, which is what winning stocks do. The fact that it is shrugging off these huge potential negative catalysts reinforces the bullish stance I already had on the stock.\nI detailed my bullishness on the company’s revenue generation, margins, buybacks, valuation, and more in the prior piece, and nothing has changed there. So I don’t want to waste your time going through it again. However, my fundamental stance on Apple hasn’t changed in the past six weeks, and if anything, continued upward revisions in EPS estimates have strengthened the bull case.\nThe important thing is that shareholders must be aware of external threats, but also that we are seeing Apple get to the end of its very bullish consolidation pattern at the same time that it typically begins a pre-earnings run higher.\nThe bottom line is that I think Apple’s breakout is imminent, and that the pattern measures to $172 or so. This won’t happen overnight, but if you were looking to buy Apple, act quickly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961831561,"gmtCreate":1668907697053,"gmtModify":1676538126288,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good read","listText":"good read","text":"good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961831561","repostId":"2284038371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284038371","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668918242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284038371?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-20 12:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284038371","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement stand","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn&#39;t?!</p><p>Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market&#39;s crazy gyrations? I know I do.</p><p>Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.</p><p>Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you&#39;re looking for.</p><p>When you hear &#34;dividend investing&#34; you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).</p><p>And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.</p><p>Why? Let&#39;s consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).</p><p>Let&#39;s see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.</p><h4>Historical Total Returns Since 2011</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abab739c65390aec9ecc4d8eb0e567b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Combining the world&#39;s best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (&#34;ETFs&#34;) with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2027ec3b24edf389edb7de640c5e8ef0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>But more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.</p><h4>Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made Of</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68784dfa5159ea8211a71a811b27e419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><h4>Cumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>S&amp;P 500</b></td><td><b>SCHD</b></td><td><b>SCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOM</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$471</td><td>$785</td><td>$1,177</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$359.54</b></td><td><b>$599.24</b></td><td><b>$898.47</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td><b>27.9%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.79</td><td>1.18</td></tr><tr><td><b>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</b></td><td><b>0.36</b></td><td><b>0.60</b></td><td><b>0.90</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&amp;P</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>1.67</b></td><td><b>2.50</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>2.5%</b></td><td><b>3.2%</b></td><td><b>2.7%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>5.9%</td><td>13.3%</td><td>31.7%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.5%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>24.2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&amp;P 500 (SP500).</p><p>They&#39;ve gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&amp;P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.</p><p>And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that&#39;s growing exponentially each year.</p><ul><li>SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investment</li><li>S&amp;P 500 investors $0.05.</li></ul><p>Ok, so that&#39;s fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!</p><p>Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let&#39;s not forget that retirements last a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872a8106a46bdef537bd2736d27566c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hamilton Project</p><p>22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.</p><p>In other words, even if you&#39;re already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.</p><p>And that&#39;s where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.</p><p>How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?</p><p><b>MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Lowe&#39;s</b></td><td><b>Altria + Lowe&#39;s</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$282,584</td><td>$37,611</td><td>$286,519</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$100,563.70</b></td><td><b>$13,384.70</b></td><td><b>$101,964.06</b></td></tr><tr><td>Annualized Income Growth Rate</td><td>18.8%</td><td>18.2%</td><td>21.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>282.58</td><td>37.61</td><td>286.52</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>100.56</td><td>13.38</td><td>101.96</td></tr><tr><td>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</td><td>NA</td><td>0.13</td><td>1.01</td></tr><tr><td>Starting Yield</td><td>4.8%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>3.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>2774.0%</td><td>682.5%</td><td>4350.4%</td></tr><tr><td><i><b>Today&#39;s Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></i></td><td><i><b>987.2%</b></i></td><td><i><b>242.9%</b></i></td><td><i><b>1548.2%</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.</p><p>And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.</p><p><b>MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Altria + Amazon</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$3,034.00</td><td>$101,408.00</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$1,657.92</b></td><td><b>$55,414.21</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>3.31%</b></td><td><b>27.96%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>3.034</td><td>101.408</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>1.657923497</td><td>55.41420765</td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>33.4</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>3.80%</b></td><td><b>4.10%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>8.30%</td><td>1523.50%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.54%</b></td><td><b>832.51%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO&#39;s dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. </i></p><p>Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you&#39;ve received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.</p><p>28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.</p><p>Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you&#39;re dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).</p><p>You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.</p><p>And that&#39;s where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.</p><p>Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.</p><p>At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.</p><h2>Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth Future</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67fe0662e4bfe81da07f04ec434355c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>Chip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that&#39;s only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d69773b50a5e03a69596f13a83839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That&#39;s its 3rd worst bear market in history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d99f60aeb036e67477e9669c4db6f92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>QCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it&#39;s 3rd worst bear market.</p><blockquote>Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories Build</blockquote><blockquote>Qualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>One year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.</p><p>Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.</p><p>Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.</p><ul><li><h3>Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demand</h3></li></ul><blockquote>Qualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In &#34;a low double-digit percentage range&#34; this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a &#34;mid-single-digit percentage decline&#34; from 2021.&#34; - Seeking Alpha</blockquote><p>As early as Q2 QCOM&#39;s sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.</p><p>Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce66de408aab5b717a5b2bb68b0810e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>After exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM&#39;s earnings are expected to:</p><ul><li>fall 8% in 2023</li><li>grow 11% in 2024</li><li>2% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.</li></ul><p>QCOM&#39;s licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn&#39;t expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.</p><p>At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac98516ffd9c404ce1f26b009c14b7be\" tg-width=\"165\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfc4e00ba39fff6f4d44310dcc87e53\" tg-width=\"161\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53aa912a1d243b464b584069d100822f\" tg-width=\"154\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5085ebb2648b58f1f0759749655f78d\" tg-width=\"151\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Is QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a></td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.</p><p>But I don&#39;t actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30bdacaec1f98fc2eb5d92a3eb153e11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investor presentation</p><p>QCOM&#39;s addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.</p><p>This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9747d6d688ce9297cc0103ae347c27e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>However, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befa76d7c9d62162913273291a116352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>QCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean that QCOM isn&#39;t a potentially attractive buy.</p><ul><li>fair value: $163.92</li><li>current price: $126.02</li><li><b>discount to fair value: 23%</b></li><li><b>DK rating: potentially strong buy.</b></li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d424fe27b124f6e474c19d42ac832ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>QCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.</p><p>That means it&#39;s pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.</p><h4><b>Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9077fd745b5fe7442c68b30862a3eaa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Which means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.</p><ul><li>about 2X the S&amp;P consensus</li></ul><h4><b>Qualcomm 2028 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0558e4ce2c146ab3b7ce7239e041cd2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Even with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</p><p>Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook improves in the future.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3196bed203f1ac1f0e409a8c19f29a3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FActSet</p><p>QCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.</p><ul><li>the current five year consensus return forecast.</li></ul><p>I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.</p><ul><li>13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&amp;P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.</li></ul><h4>Qualcomm Investment Decision Score</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f29c106559f4ad320cb69a3c28da63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>QCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&amp;P 500, but it&#39;s still a satisfactory one that&#39;s offering:</p><ul><li>superior and safer yield</li><li>a faster-growing dividend</li><li>better medium-term total returns</li><li>66% better risk-adjusted expected returns</li><li>30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&amp;P</li></ul><h2>NVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains Intact</h2><p>NVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.</p><p>Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9acc1f5a652b10b06cb686a4f3128c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>News like that, along with the overall &#34;risk on&#34; sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.</p><p>This isn&#39;t surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&amp;P 500.</p><h4>Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPO</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3defbbc0997112ddbde7a6f2bca1a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Gut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.</p><p>From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:</p><ul><li>140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years</li><li>89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years</li><li>81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years</li><li>47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years</li><li>34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.</li></ul><p>The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA&#39;s long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?</p><blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s Data Center Business Drives the Firm&#39;s Wide Moat Rating</blockquote><blockquote>Nvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm&#39;s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it&#39;s now at the forefront of some of the world&#39;s best secular growth trends.</p><ul><li>cloud computing</li><li>AI</li><li>driverless cars</li><li>automation.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6801dafd36eaa41110bce2bee51efb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>Management estimates NVDA&#39;s total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.</p><blockquote>The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d8a7f017af371ef6cc2091c3cce253\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Analysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.</p><ul><li>25% annual growth rate.</li></ul><p>By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA&#39;s sales will be coming from datacenters.</p><p>Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don&#39;t mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.</p><p>What kind of businesses are NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19525a0bcbf34d91c2eab5c4b5987e45\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117a0f71158d9a01f27455ae2f8895f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>How about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?</p><ul><li>20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.</li></ul><p>Given NVDA&#39;s massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the &#34;super chips&#34; that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.</p><p>What does that potentially mean for investors?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Nvidia</b></td><td><b>0.1%</b></td><td><b>17.7%</b></td><td><b>17.8%</b></td><td><b>12.5%</b></td><td><b>10.1%</b></td><td><b>7.1</b></td><td><b>2.62</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.</p><p>In other words:</p><ul><li>QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwinds</li><li>NVDA&#39;s growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economy</li></ul><p>OK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.</p><h2>The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With Nvidia</h2><p>What is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?</p><ul><li>A stable credit rating from S&amp;P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk</li><li>$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet</li><li>$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.</li></ul><p>No, NVDA&#39;s balanced sheet is a fortress and it&#39;s a free cash flow minting machine.</p><p>No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaab450b786d3fc8033addc276f49980\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.</p><p>But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn&#39;t raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.</p><ul><li>Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%</li><li>Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%</li><li>Qualcomm: 2.4%.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed8059fb756ebb0208f4a9255da8fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Value investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.</p><ul><li>cash-adjusted P/E is 29X</li></ul><p>What is NVDA&#39;s fair value?</p><ul><li>NVDA fair value: $136.39</li><li>current price: $160.55</li><li>discount to fair value: -18%</li><li>DK rating: hold.</li></ul><p>NVDA&#39;s 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.</p><p>Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.</p><p>If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2022 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb0d9fdc2e84efd099a075dc786d759\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Pandemic</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5e4c84cd9a33c4eb1344645e4d9e02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.</p><ul><li>The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&amp;P fell 34%.</li></ul><p>But NVDA&#39;s crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2018 Bear Market</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a727821abe6d4024c68205c4a25cc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Imagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.</p><p>That&#39;s what happened in the 2018 bear market.</p><ul><li>53% decline in 3 months</li><li>S&amp;P fell 21%.</li></ul><p>And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA&#39;s history.</p><ul><li>it&#39;s suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 years</li><li>averaging once every four years.</li></ul><h4>Nvidia In The 2011 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2451a52de33e3efbd62756ec8aae19d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Compared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Great Recession</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be365a32a8f24d156b47fe1ce741ea2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.</p><h4>Nvidia Pre-Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85abd332be6f5f0eee3a6ed3ed98348\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Even before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.</p><h4>Nvidia During The Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f482c390124c7ab2212d687c4ad53ccf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34faa537584a4beab097d4a2e14c2f34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>If you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you&#39;re wrong.</p><p>During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.</p><p>That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.</p><p>NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.</p><ul><li>after already falling 50% in the previous five months</li><li>and then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.</li></ul><p>So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you&#39;re in for a wild wide...to the downside.</p><ul><li>2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.</li></ul><p>But in the medium-term and long-term?</p><h4>Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c252be18bc5c5c6ab04785c41297a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.</p><p>It&#39;s 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it&#39;s consensus return potential is effectively zero.</p><h4>NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33eed1944ddaef0cf8144129739a81a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today&#39;s 18% historical premium.</p><ul><li>approximately 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</li></ul><p>But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.</p><h4>Nvidia Investment Decision Score</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cbbe0e07e810009a9c363f88f22c6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>NVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li>higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&amp;P over the next five years</li><li>80% higher long-term annual return potential</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy Today</h2><p>When it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.</p><p>And that&#39;s why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.</p><ul><li>SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decade</li><li>SCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGR</li><li>and 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.</li></ul><p>And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.</p><ul><li>a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)</li><li>2x the median growth consensus</li><li>historically 7% higher annual returns.</li></ul><p>So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.</p><ul><li>QCOM is 20% historically undervalued</li><li>NVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.</li></ul><p>Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.</p><p>If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don&#39;t recommend selling it. Not when you&#39;ve potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.</p><p>But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.</p><p>Even if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.</p><p>One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 12:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284038371","content_text":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you're looking for.When you hear \"dividend investing\" you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.Why? Let's consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).Let's see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.Historical Total Returns Since 2011Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCombining the world's best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (\"ETFs\") with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumBut more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made OfPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial InvestmentMetricS&P 500SCHDSCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOMTotal Dividends$471$785$1,177Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$359.54$599.24$898.47Annualized Income Growth Rate9.0%15.3%27.9%Total Income/Initial Investment %0.470.791.18Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %0.360.600.90More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&PNA1.672.50Starting Yield2.5%3.2%2.7%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)5.9%13.3%31.7%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.5%10.2%24.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&P 500 (SP500).They've gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that's growing exponentially each year.SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investmentS&P 500 investors $0.05.Ok, so that's fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let's not forget that retirements last a long time.Hamilton Project22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.In other words, even if you're already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.And that's where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaLowe'sAltria + Lowe'sTotal Dividends$282,584$37,611$286,519Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$100,563.70$13,384.70$101,964.06Annualized Income Growth Rate18.8%18.2%21.7%Total Income/Initial Investment %282.5837.61286.52Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %100.5613.38101.96More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA0.131.01Starting Yield4.8%1.4%3.0%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)2774.0%682.5%4350.4%Today's Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)987.2%242.9%1548.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaAltria + AmazonTotal Dividends$3,034.00$101,408.00Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$1,657.92$55,414.21Annualized Income Growth Rate3.31%27.96%Total Income/Initial Investment %3.034101.408Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %1.65792349755.41420765More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA33.4Starting Yield3.80%4.10%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)8.30%1523.50%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.54%832.51%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO's dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you've received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you're dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.And that's where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth FutureYchartsChip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that's only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That's its 3rd worst bear market in history.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumQCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it's 3rd worst bear market.Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories BuildQualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.\" - MorningstarOne year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demandQualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In \"a low double-digit percentage range\" this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a \"mid-single-digit percentage decline\" from 2021.\" - Seeking AlphaAs early as Q2 QCOM's sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.FactSet Research TerminalAfter exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM's earnings are expected to:fall 8% in 2023grow 11% in 20242% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.QCOM's licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn't expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.FAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetIs QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.But I don't actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.Investor presentationQCOM's addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.YchartsHowever, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.YchartsQCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.But that doesn't mean that QCOM isn't a potentially attractive buy.fair value: $163.92current price: $126.02discount to fair value: 23%DK rating: potentially strong buy.FactSet Research TerminalQCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.That means it's pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSetWhich means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.about 2X the S&P consensusQualcomm 2028 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSetEven with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&P consensus.Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM's growth outlook improves in the future.FAST Graphs, FActSetQCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.the current five year consensus return forecast.I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.Qualcomm Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolQCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&P 500, but it's still a satisfactory one that's offering:superior and safer yielda faster-growing dividendbetter medium-term total returns66% better risk-adjusted expected returns30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&PNVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains IntactNVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.YchartsNews like that, along with the overall \"risk on\" sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.This isn't surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&P 500.Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPOPortfolio Visualizer PremiumGut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA's long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?Nvidia's Data Center Business Drives the Firm's Wide Moat RatingNvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm's chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.\" - MorningstarNVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it's now at the forefront of some of the world's best secular growth trends.cloud computingAIdriverless carsautomation.investor presentationManagement estimates NVDA's total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.\" - MorningstarNVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.FactSet Research TerminalAnalysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.25% annual growth rate.By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA's sales will be coming from datacenters.Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don't mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.What kind of businesses are NVDA's datacenter customers?investor presentationNVDA's datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?FactSet Research TerminalHow about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.Given NVDA's massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the \"super chips\" that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.What does that potentially mean for investors?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNvidia0.1%17.7%17.8%12.5%10.1%7.12.62Nasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.In other words:QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwindsNVDA's growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economyOK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With NvidiaWhat is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?A stable credit rating from S&P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.No, NVDA's balanced sheet is a fortress and it's a free cash flow minting machine.No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.FAST Graphs, FactSetNVDA's overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn't raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (\"FCF\") payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.NVDA's dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%Qualcomm: 2.4%.FactSet Research TerminalValue investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.cash-adjusted P/E is 29XWhat is NVDA's fair value?NVDA fair value: $136.39current price: $160.55discount to fair value: -18%DK rating: hold.NVDA's 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.Nvidia In The 2022 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIn the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.Nvidia In The PandemicPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&P fell 34%.But NVDA's crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?Nvidia In The 2018 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumImagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.That's what happened in the 2018 bear market.53% decline in 3 monthsS&P fell 21%.And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA's history.it's suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 yearsaveraging once every four years.Nvidia In The 2011 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCompared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.Nvidia In The Great RecessionPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.Nvidia Pre-Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumEven before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.Nvidia During The Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIf you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you're wrong.During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.after already falling 50% in the previous five monthsand then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you're in for a wild wide...to the downside.2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.But in the medium-term and long-term?Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.It's 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it's consensus return potential is effectively zero.NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today's 18% historical premium.approximately 2X the S&P consensus.But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.Nvidia Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolNVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&P 500.higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&P over the next five years80% higher long-term annual return potentialBottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy TodayWhen it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.And that's why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decadeSCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGRand 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)2x the median growth consensushistorically 7% higher annual returns.So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.QCOM is 20% historically undervaluedNVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don't recommend selling it. Not when you've potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.Even if QCOM's growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016399628,"gmtCreate":1649123515752,"gmtModify":1676534455806,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"UBS analyst could be right","listText":"UBS analyst could be right","text":"UBS analyst could be right","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016399628","repostId":"1175261412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175261412","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649117031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175261412?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UBS Analyst Upgrades NIO to a Buy. Here’s Why He Could Be Wrong.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175261412","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nio(NYSE:NIO)stock gained $1.97, or 9%, on Monday after UBS Analyst Paul Gong upgraded the company’s stock from “hold” to “buy” on Monday. The stock rose to $23.90 a share.However, Gong lowered his pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Nio</b> (NYSE:<b><u>NIO</u></b>)stock gained $1.97, or 9%, on Monday after UBS Analyst Paul Gong upgraded the company’s stock from “hold” to “buy” on Monday. The stock rose to $23.90 a share.</p><p>However, Gong lowered his price target for the electric vehicle manufacturing company from$42 to $32, highlighting the uncertainty attached to NIO stock.</p><p>Here is why Gong could be wrong.</p><p>NIO stock enjoys similar attention to <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>)and its chief executive officer, Elon Musk. Millennials who bolstered Tesla stock during the peak of Covid-19 were the ones buying NIO stock, since it was cheaper but still in the electric vehicle industry — projected to be the future of automobiles.</p><p>But Elon Musk was able to sustain Tesla stock’s value and demand with his numerous tweets and deals like the 100,000 electric vehicles agreement signed with <b>Hertz</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>HTZ</u></b>), the largest American car rental company. NIO, meanwhile, relied on the projected global adoption of electric vehicles and positive comments like those from UBS for growth.</p><p>Nio also rose in October 2021, when Goldman Sachs analyst Fei Fangupgraded his projection from “hold” to “buy” and left his price target at $56.</p><p>While NIO’s plan to enter Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark in 2022, and continue to expand sales in Europe is solid, global slow down due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, spreading Covid-19 infections in China andChina’s decision to cut subsidies are some of the challenges I projected would weigh on the demand for new ET5 midsize sedan and impede Nio’s potential in the near-term in 2022.</p><p>“We remain cautiously optimistic about the future development of the industry,” said Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). “Affected by the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the external environment of the industry is more complicated.”</p><p>It is important to note that most of NIO’s announcements and the projections that experts are basing their analysis on came before the Russia-Ukraine war and the change in the global economic outlook. I think I should stress that NIO is a good company with strong fundamentals. Hence why I think it’s a “hold” until the global outlook improves.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS Analyst Upgrades NIO to a Buy. Here’s Why He Could Be Wrong.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS Analyst Upgrades NIO to a Buy. Here’s Why He Could Be Wrong.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-05 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/04/ubs-analyst-upgrades-nio-to-a-buy-heres-why-he-could-be-wrong/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio (NYSE:NIO)stock gained $1.97, or 9%, on Monday after UBS Analyst Paul Gong upgraded the company’s stock from “hold” to “buy” on Monday. The stock rose to $23.90 a share.However, Gong lowered his ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/ubs-analyst-upgrades-nio-to-a-buy-heres-why-he-could-be-wrong/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/ubs-analyst-upgrades-nio-to-a-buy-heres-why-he-could-be-wrong/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175261412","content_text":"Nio (NYSE:NIO)stock gained $1.97, or 9%, on Monday after UBS Analyst Paul Gong upgraded the company’s stock from “hold” to “buy” on Monday. The stock rose to $23.90 a share.However, Gong lowered his price target for the electric vehicle manufacturing company from$42 to $32, highlighting the uncertainty attached to NIO stock.Here is why Gong could be wrong.NIO stock enjoys similar attention to Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)and its chief executive officer, Elon Musk. Millennials who bolstered Tesla stock during the peak of Covid-19 were the ones buying NIO stock, since it was cheaper but still in the electric vehicle industry — projected to be the future of automobiles.But Elon Musk was able to sustain Tesla stock’s value and demand with his numerous tweets and deals like the 100,000 electric vehicles agreement signed with Hertz(NASDAQ:HTZ), the largest American car rental company. NIO, meanwhile, relied on the projected global adoption of electric vehicles and positive comments like those from UBS for growth.Nio also rose in October 2021, when Goldman Sachs analyst Fei Fangupgraded his projection from “hold” to “buy” and left his price target at $56.While NIO’s plan to enter Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark in 2022, and continue to expand sales in Europe is solid, global slow down due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, spreading Covid-19 infections in China andChina’s decision to cut subsidies are some of the challenges I projected would weigh on the demand for new ET5 midsize sedan and impede Nio’s potential in the near-term in 2022.“We remain cautiously optimistic about the future development of the industry,” said Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). “Affected by the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the external environment of the industry is more complicated.”It is important to note that most of NIO’s announcements and the projections that experts are basing their analysis on came before the Russia-Ukraine war and the change in the global economic outlook. I think I should stress that NIO is a good company with strong fundamentals. Hence why I think it’s a “hold” until the global outlook improves.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143853513,"gmtCreate":1625788910232,"gmtModify":1703748465691,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143853513","repostId":"1153955441","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153955441","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625565885,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153955441?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 18:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook: $1 Trillion Is Just The Beginning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153955441","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFacebook is now worth over $1 trillion, but growth on its platforms is slowing down.\nThe co","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Facebook is now worth over $1 trillion, but growth on its platforms is slowing down.</li>\n <li>The company must look elsewhere to find growth and find the next $1 trillion.</li>\n <li>I discuss Facebook's three-step plan to achieve worldwide payment dominance by leveraging its most valuable asset: attention.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Facebook, Inc. (FB) recently passed a very significant milestone, achieving a +$1 Trillion valuation. The company has, unarguably, become the most successful advertising business in the world. But what comes now? The online advertising market has become saturated, especially in developed economies like the U.S. The number of new Facebook users is forecast to grow at itsslowest rate ever in 2021, under 1%. If Facebook wants to keep growing, it must look elsewhere.</p>\n<p>Where will the next $1 trillion come from?</p>\n<p>In this article, I lay out what I have identified to be Facebook’s three-point strategy to capture the payment industry in one fell swoop. Facebook is working on all levels to become a key player in the business of money. The company is potentially laying the groundwork to become the first corporately run “Central World Bank.”</p>\n<p><b>Step 1: One foot through the door</b></p>\n<p>Facebook is more than a social media platform, everyone knows that. The company has become way too big and consequential to be analyzed as a mere seller of advertising, though this is where most of its revenues come from. Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are communication tools that add countless value to our economies, and using them to sell advertising is genius, but it barely scrapes the surface of what a company with so much reach can achieve.</p>\n<p>The first step in Facebook’s plan is establishing itself as a cheap and convenient system to make peer-to-peer transactions. You already have the Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp app on your phone. These apps already connect you with most of the people you know, so why not use these apps to send money? Facebook has already achieved the hardest part of the customer acquisition journey, getting your “trust” and their app on your phone. All that is missing is some banking/credit card information.</p>\n<p>So simple, and yet so complex. If it’s so easy for Facebook to pull this lever, why hasn’t it done so successfully already?</p>\n<p>One reason is strategy, but perhaps the biggest hurdle is regulation. Recently, Facebook made headlines when it announced that it was relaunching WhatsApp Pay in Brazil. You read that right, Brazil’s Central Banks stepped in last year tosuspend WhatsApp Payunder the guise of an “investigation” over potential threats it might pose to the nation's payments systems. Almost one year later, the company has managed torelaunch WhatsApp Pay, and this isn’t being talked about enough. Brazil has over108 million peopleusing WhatsApp, behind India with 390 million and ahead of the US with 75 million.</p>\n<p>India was the first place that WhatsApp Pay was launched, and we do have some data on the situation there.</p>\n<p>WhatsApp Paylaunched in India around December 2020. In its first operational month, WhatsApp Pay processed around $1.8 million in transactions. In February 2021, WhatsApp Pay was responsible for around $4.2 million in transactions. This is remarkable growth, but perhaps still slower adoption than some would expect.</p>\n<p>Once again, Facebook is being hampered by regulations. Just as WhatsApp Pay launched, the NPCI announced that “third-party applications offering UPI payments service can process a maximum of 30 percent of the transaction volumes starting January 1, 2021”. This means there is a cap on how many transactions WhatsApp Pay can process, and maybe one of the reasons why there was no marketing push associated with the WhatsApp Pay launch.</p>\n<p>However, it seems like the lack of adoption of WhatsApp Pay and other P2P networks may stem from a more fundamental problem. This was aptly explained by Arnav Gupta, an analyst at Forrester Research</p>\n<blockquote>\n The reason is very clear. It is the lack of use cases. Right now, WhatsApp is offering peer-to-peer (P2P) payments. There is no geography where just on the back of P2P payments, digital payments have proliferated. They don’t have those P2M transactions or use cases defined well,” Arnav Gupta, an analyst at Forrester Research told Financial Express Online.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:Financialexpress.com</p>\n<p>As Gupta points out, the problem is that Facebook is not yet offering a compelling system for Peer-to-Merchant transactions. But this is exactly what Facebook is working on right now.</p>\n<p><b>Step 2: Facebook is there for you</b></p>\n<p>It’s such a shame. Facebook had a lot of potential with this whole WhatsApp Pay thing. But without the ability to connect consumers with merchants and businesses it doesn’t seem like there’s much point to it. If only Facebook had a platform where these two groups of people get together to connect, discover each other’s needs, and even transact. Oh, wait a minute…</p>\n<p>Allowing peer-to-peer transactions is nice and all, but here is where Facebook stands to make the big bucks and it is where the company is now turning its attention. The first step was to get into people’s pockets, the next one is to normalize using Facebook/Instagram as a shopping platform, which could give Facebook the potential of being the default payment processor for most of the eCommerce transactions in the world. This requires two steps; turning Instagram/Facebook/WhatsApp into an actual eCommerce/Marketplace and then enabling payments.</p>\n<p>This agenda has been in play for some time. Instagram began implementing eCommerce style initiatives as far back as 2018. In the last month though, we have seen at least two huge moves pushing this reality even further. On July 1st, Facebook announced“drastic changes” to Instagram. These include the use of longer format videos and also showing content that users don’t follow. The company went as far as to say that they no longer view Instagram as a photo-sharing app. But if Instagram is no longer a photo-sharing app, what is it? I would argue Facebook is trying to turn this platform into a fully-fledged Marketplace.</p>\n<p>Why wouldn’t it? Social media is perhaps the number one tool for eCommerce businesses. There are over 1 billion people on Instagram, and71% of businessesclaim they use Instagram for marketing purposes. With over $18.1 billion in ad revenues last year. It is clear that Instagram, and to a lesser extent Facebook, is the best place to generate traffic online, which is all that matters these days. Therefore, it’s only natural for businesses to move their whole shopping experience into Instagram. One of the most important principles of eCommerce is leading the user to the checkout with as few clicks as possible, so there is a clear incentive for online sellers to do this.</p>\n<p>Instagram Shops has been around since 2017, however, Instagram checkout and Facebook Pay came out in 2019, and it is still being rolled out in other countries. Facebook has also enabled the Shop feature to be useddirectly on WhatsApp, bringing businesses and consumers one step closer.</p>\n<p>So far, Instagram checkout is powered by PayPal (PYPL), and I don’t believe Facebook adds any kind of transaction fee, which seems like the smart thing to do. For now, the most important thing is to move the shopping experience to their social media platforms, and once the company holds all the power, it can choose the best way of monetizing it.</p>\n<p>The key fact to understand here is that controlling the traffic, which Facebook does, is the most important part of the equation in today’s market. This is something I touched on in a Shopify Inc. (SHOP) vs.Amazon.com(AMZN) article, where I talked about Ben Thompson's \"Aggregation Theory.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n This theory sustains that, due to the changes that the digital age has brought about, the power lies in those companies that control demand for abundant resources, rather than companies that control the distribution of scarce ones. Amazon is an aggregator and possesses the qualities that are associated with these entities:\n</blockquote>\n<p>You can switch Amazon for Facebook and reach the same conclusion. Facebook controls the real scarce resource, which is traffic. Moving the shopping experience to their social media platforms will put Facebook at the centre of worldwide commerce.</p>\n<p><b>Step 3: One world, One currency</b></p>\n<p>The internet has brought around a shopping experience without borders, so it only makes sense that this borderless online economy will run on one international currency through the power of technology. This is where Diem comes in.</p>\n<p>In its latest iteration, Diem will be a stablecoin linked to the dollar. Facebook has now moved its Diem operations back to the US and enlisted the help of Silvergate Bank. Originally, Diem was going to be a stablecoin made up of a basket of currencies, much like the IMF’s special drawing rights, but this idea has been scrapped for now.</p>\n<p>Diem will limit itself to acting as a dollar stablecoin, but, in practice, that is equivalent to pegging your coin to the currency of the world. The company has had to make plenty of concessions since it originally tried to launch “Libra”, but it looks like it is finally gaining some traction.</p>\n<p>Arguably, Diem does not offer anything new in terms of innovation. We have dollars, we have cryptocurrencies, and we even have stablecoins that are pegged to the dollar. So why is this special? Because Facebook is bridging the gap between cryptocurrencies and the real world. Most governments are afraid of cryptocurrencies, and perhaps they should be, but this is not a good reason not to benefit from everything blockchain technology has to offer.</p>\n<p>Through Diem, Facebook is giving regulators in the US and the West a door into the cryptocurrency space, perhaps even a way to “fight” cryptocurrencies. As it stands now, it looks like Diem will be the only Western weapon to fight the rise of the Digital Yuan, and Facebook will be at the heart of this fight.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, a world economy needs a world currency. Diem is this tool and its implementation fits perfectly into Facebook’s plan of becoming the world’s leading payment processor, and even bank. In fact, by controlling Diem, we could argue that Facebook will become the first corporately run central bank.</p>\n<p><b>Market Opportunity</b></p>\n<p>I started this article by talking about how Facebook is looking for the next trillion-dollar opportunity. While it is hard to quantify exactly how much Facebook stands to gain from these new businesses, and how the market will value the “new “ Facebook, we can make an estimate of the size of the different markets that the company is tackling. In reality, all of these moves are coming together, so the lines are a bit blurred, but let’s identify the size of the “markets” we have mentioned above specifically.</p>\n<p>Starting with P2P transactions, this market is projected to grow at a 29% CAGR through 2027,reaching a size of $558.91 billion. Of course, the biggest opportunities for Facebook are developing markets, such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia. These are places with very large populations and which are expected to outpace global GDP growth, so they are key areas for Facebook’s growth plans.</p>\n<p>In Brazil, the “mobile wallet and payment” market is projected to reach just under$152 billion by 2025.In India, the digital payment industry is set to increase three-fold toRs 7,092 trillion by 2025.</p>\n<p>Basically, through WhatsApp Pay, Facebook is looking to become the “Venmo” and “Cash App” of these developed economies. To get a sense of the potential here, Cash App took in over$5.9 billion in revenues last year.</p>\n<p>Moving on to eCommerce, Facebook is now looking to move part of this shopping experience directly into their platforms/Apps. Global eCommerce sales totalled $4.29 trillion in 2020, so it wouldn’t take much for Facebook to increase its revenues significantly if it can entrench itself as a payment option. Ultimately, Facebook would be looking to bring out something similar to Shopify’s Shop Pay. This is a payment processor that Shopify offers its merchants and from which it takes a nice transaction fee. The funny thing is that Shopify Pay is actually powered by Stripe, but that doesn’t stop Shopify from taking a nice cut.</p>\n<p>Interestingly, Shop Pay is alreadyavailable on Facebook and Instagramas a payment option as of this February. Facebook is actively collaborating with Shopify in this space, though it is still not clear how the company will make money from this.</p>\n<p>An interesting concept Facebook could pursue though is to follow Starbucks Corporation's (SBUX), \"inadvertent bank\" model. Starbucks offers its customers the option of loading money onto the Starbucks App. Customers are incentivized to do this through free products and special discounts. The great thing about this isn’t the increased customer loyalty, it’s all the money that is left lying around in these cards, which the company can use or even reinvest. In 2020 the company had around $1.4 billion of funds deposited in these cards, and by some measures, it achieved a10% return on these funds.Just imagine how much money Facebook could end up storing for users if their payment system became mainstream.</p>\n<p>But to make matters better, Facebook might be looking to become an actual bank. This looks to be the plan with Diem. If Diem launched one day, it would have all the appeal of a cryptocurrency, and the stability of a regular fiat coin. The implications for Americans, who get paid in dollars, may not seem huge, but to people in smaller nations, being able to transact and store Diem will be a game-changer.</p>\n<p>In 2020, it was calculated that the global banking system was about$2.5 trillion in size. This is Facebook's target. Also, we can add to this around2 billion peoplewho are currently unbanked, which something like Diem could tackle too.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Facebook is perhaps the most influential company of the 21st century. It seems kind of bizarre to think this when the company “merely” makes money by serving ads, but it holds one of the scarcest resources of our time; attention. With this, Facebook can do become a payment processor and even a world bank, by introducing the first-ever fully international and borderless currency.</p>\n<p>There is a common denominator with Facebook’s actions. Because of its size, the company always faces opposition. We have seen this with WhatsApp Pay, just like we also saw it with Diem, formerly known as Libra. But Facebook always adjusts and comes back to get consumers, businesses, and regulators on board.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, Facebook can leverage its audience in so many ways. Diem might be the most important part of this puzzle. With world governments behind this idea, the rest of the pieces would fall into place. Being a payment processing company becomes almost irrelevant, once you become the company that “controls” the means of payment.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook: $1 Trillion Is Just The Beginning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: $1 Trillion Is Just The Beginning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 18:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437918-facebook-stock-1-trillion-marketcap-just-the-beginning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFacebook is now worth over $1 trillion, but growth on its platforms is slowing down.\nThe company must look elsewhere to find growth and find the next $1 trillion.\nI discuss Facebook's three-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437918-facebook-stock-1-trillion-marketcap-just-the-beginning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437918-facebook-stock-1-trillion-marketcap-just-the-beginning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1153955441","content_text":"Summary\n\nFacebook is now worth over $1 trillion, but growth on its platforms is slowing down.\nThe company must look elsewhere to find growth and find the next $1 trillion.\nI discuss Facebook's three-step plan to achieve worldwide payment dominance by leveraging its most valuable asset: attention.\n\nFacebook, Inc. (FB) recently passed a very significant milestone, achieving a +$1 Trillion valuation. The company has, unarguably, become the most successful advertising business in the world. But what comes now? The online advertising market has become saturated, especially in developed economies like the U.S. The number of new Facebook users is forecast to grow at itsslowest rate ever in 2021, under 1%. If Facebook wants to keep growing, it must look elsewhere.\nWhere will the next $1 trillion come from?\nIn this article, I lay out what I have identified to be Facebook’s three-point strategy to capture the payment industry in one fell swoop. Facebook is working on all levels to become a key player in the business of money. The company is potentially laying the groundwork to become the first corporately run “Central World Bank.”\nStep 1: One foot through the door\nFacebook is more than a social media platform, everyone knows that. The company has become way too big and consequential to be analyzed as a mere seller of advertising, though this is where most of its revenues come from. Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are communication tools that add countless value to our economies, and using them to sell advertising is genius, but it barely scrapes the surface of what a company with so much reach can achieve.\nThe first step in Facebook’s plan is establishing itself as a cheap and convenient system to make peer-to-peer transactions. You already have the Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp app on your phone. These apps already connect you with most of the people you know, so why not use these apps to send money? Facebook has already achieved the hardest part of the customer acquisition journey, getting your “trust” and their app on your phone. All that is missing is some banking/credit card information.\nSo simple, and yet so complex. If it’s so easy for Facebook to pull this lever, why hasn’t it done so successfully already?\nOne reason is strategy, but perhaps the biggest hurdle is regulation. Recently, Facebook made headlines when it announced that it was relaunching WhatsApp Pay in Brazil. You read that right, Brazil’s Central Banks stepped in last year tosuspend WhatsApp Payunder the guise of an “investigation” over potential threats it might pose to the nation's payments systems. Almost one year later, the company has managed torelaunch WhatsApp Pay, and this isn’t being talked about enough. Brazil has over108 million peopleusing WhatsApp, behind India with 390 million and ahead of the US with 75 million.\nIndia was the first place that WhatsApp Pay was launched, and we do have some data on the situation there.\nWhatsApp Paylaunched in India around December 2020. In its first operational month, WhatsApp Pay processed around $1.8 million in transactions. In February 2021, WhatsApp Pay was responsible for around $4.2 million in transactions. This is remarkable growth, but perhaps still slower adoption than some would expect.\nOnce again, Facebook is being hampered by regulations. Just as WhatsApp Pay launched, the NPCI announced that “third-party applications offering UPI payments service can process a maximum of 30 percent of the transaction volumes starting January 1, 2021”. This means there is a cap on how many transactions WhatsApp Pay can process, and maybe one of the reasons why there was no marketing push associated with the WhatsApp Pay launch.\nHowever, it seems like the lack of adoption of WhatsApp Pay and other P2P networks may stem from a more fundamental problem. This was aptly explained by Arnav Gupta, an analyst at Forrester Research\n\n The reason is very clear. It is the lack of use cases. Right now, WhatsApp is offering peer-to-peer (P2P) payments. There is no geography where just on the back of P2P payments, digital payments have proliferated. They don’t have those P2M transactions or use cases defined well,” Arnav Gupta, an analyst at Forrester Research told Financial Express Online.\n\nSource:Financialexpress.com\nAs Gupta points out, the problem is that Facebook is not yet offering a compelling system for Peer-to-Merchant transactions. But this is exactly what Facebook is working on right now.\nStep 2: Facebook is there for you\nIt’s such a shame. Facebook had a lot of potential with this whole WhatsApp Pay thing. But without the ability to connect consumers with merchants and businesses it doesn’t seem like there’s much point to it. If only Facebook had a platform where these two groups of people get together to connect, discover each other’s needs, and even transact. Oh, wait a minute…\nAllowing peer-to-peer transactions is nice and all, but here is where Facebook stands to make the big bucks and it is where the company is now turning its attention. The first step was to get into people’s pockets, the next one is to normalize using Facebook/Instagram as a shopping platform, which could give Facebook the potential of being the default payment processor for most of the eCommerce transactions in the world. This requires two steps; turning Instagram/Facebook/WhatsApp into an actual eCommerce/Marketplace and then enabling payments.\nThis agenda has been in play for some time. Instagram began implementing eCommerce style initiatives as far back as 2018. In the last month though, we have seen at least two huge moves pushing this reality even further. On July 1st, Facebook announced“drastic changes” to Instagram. These include the use of longer format videos and also showing content that users don’t follow. The company went as far as to say that they no longer view Instagram as a photo-sharing app. But if Instagram is no longer a photo-sharing app, what is it? I would argue Facebook is trying to turn this platform into a fully-fledged Marketplace.\nWhy wouldn’t it? Social media is perhaps the number one tool for eCommerce businesses. There are over 1 billion people on Instagram, and71% of businessesclaim they use Instagram for marketing purposes. With over $18.1 billion in ad revenues last year. It is clear that Instagram, and to a lesser extent Facebook, is the best place to generate traffic online, which is all that matters these days. Therefore, it’s only natural for businesses to move their whole shopping experience into Instagram. One of the most important principles of eCommerce is leading the user to the checkout with as few clicks as possible, so there is a clear incentive for online sellers to do this.\nInstagram Shops has been around since 2017, however, Instagram checkout and Facebook Pay came out in 2019, and it is still being rolled out in other countries. Facebook has also enabled the Shop feature to be useddirectly on WhatsApp, bringing businesses and consumers one step closer.\nSo far, Instagram checkout is powered by PayPal (PYPL), and I don’t believe Facebook adds any kind of transaction fee, which seems like the smart thing to do. For now, the most important thing is to move the shopping experience to their social media platforms, and once the company holds all the power, it can choose the best way of monetizing it.\nThe key fact to understand here is that controlling the traffic, which Facebook does, is the most important part of the equation in today’s market. This is something I touched on in a Shopify Inc. (SHOP) vs.Amazon.com(AMZN) article, where I talked about Ben Thompson's \"Aggregation Theory.\"\n\n This theory sustains that, due to the changes that the digital age has brought about, the power lies in those companies that control demand for abundant resources, rather than companies that control the distribution of scarce ones. Amazon is an aggregator and possesses the qualities that are associated with these entities:\n\nYou can switch Amazon for Facebook and reach the same conclusion. Facebook controls the real scarce resource, which is traffic. Moving the shopping experience to their social media platforms will put Facebook at the centre of worldwide commerce.\nStep 3: One world, One currency\nThe internet has brought around a shopping experience without borders, so it only makes sense that this borderless online economy will run on one international currency through the power of technology. This is where Diem comes in.\nIn its latest iteration, Diem will be a stablecoin linked to the dollar. Facebook has now moved its Diem operations back to the US and enlisted the help of Silvergate Bank. Originally, Diem was going to be a stablecoin made up of a basket of currencies, much like the IMF’s special drawing rights, but this idea has been scrapped for now.\nDiem will limit itself to acting as a dollar stablecoin, but, in practice, that is equivalent to pegging your coin to the currency of the world. The company has had to make plenty of concessions since it originally tried to launch “Libra”, but it looks like it is finally gaining some traction.\nArguably, Diem does not offer anything new in terms of innovation. We have dollars, we have cryptocurrencies, and we even have stablecoins that are pegged to the dollar. So why is this special? Because Facebook is bridging the gap between cryptocurrencies and the real world. Most governments are afraid of cryptocurrencies, and perhaps they should be, but this is not a good reason not to benefit from everything blockchain technology has to offer.\nThrough Diem, Facebook is giving regulators in the US and the West a door into the cryptocurrency space, perhaps even a way to “fight” cryptocurrencies. As it stands now, it looks like Diem will be the only Western weapon to fight the rise of the Digital Yuan, and Facebook will be at the heart of this fight.\nUltimately, a world economy needs a world currency. Diem is this tool and its implementation fits perfectly into Facebook’s plan of becoming the world’s leading payment processor, and even bank. In fact, by controlling Diem, we could argue that Facebook will become the first corporately run central bank.\nMarket Opportunity\nI started this article by talking about how Facebook is looking for the next trillion-dollar opportunity. While it is hard to quantify exactly how much Facebook stands to gain from these new businesses, and how the market will value the “new “ Facebook, we can make an estimate of the size of the different markets that the company is tackling. In reality, all of these moves are coming together, so the lines are a bit blurred, but let’s identify the size of the “markets” we have mentioned above specifically.\nStarting with P2P transactions, this market is projected to grow at a 29% CAGR through 2027,reaching a size of $558.91 billion. Of course, the biggest opportunities for Facebook are developing markets, such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia. These are places with very large populations and which are expected to outpace global GDP growth, so they are key areas for Facebook’s growth plans.\nIn Brazil, the “mobile wallet and payment” market is projected to reach just under$152 billion by 2025.In India, the digital payment industry is set to increase three-fold toRs 7,092 trillion by 2025.\nBasically, through WhatsApp Pay, Facebook is looking to become the “Venmo” and “Cash App” of these developed economies. To get a sense of the potential here, Cash App took in over$5.9 billion in revenues last year.\nMoving on to eCommerce, Facebook is now looking to move part of this shopping experience directly into their platforms/Apps. Global eCommerce sales totalled $4.29 trillion in 2020, so it wouldn’t take much for Facebook to increase its revenues significantly if it can entrench itself as a payment option. Ultimately, Facebook would be looking to bring out something similar to Shopify’s Shop Pay. This is a payment processor that Shopify offers its merchants and from which it takes a nice transaction fee. The funny thing is that Shopify Pay is actually powered by Stripe, but that doesn’t stop Shopify from taking a nice cut.\nInterestingly, Shop Pay is alreadyavailable on Facebook and Instagramas a payment option as of this February. Facebook is actively collaborating with Shopify in this space, though it is still not clear how the company will make money from this.\nAn interesting concept Facebook could pursue though is to follow Starbucks Corporation's (SBUX), \"inadvertent bank\" model. Starbucks offers its customers the option of loading money onto the Starbucks App. Customers are incentivized to do this through free products and special discounts. The great thing about this isn’t the increased customer loyalty, it’s all the money that is left lying around in these cards, which the company can use or even reinvest. In 2020 the company had around $1.4 billion of funds deposited in these cards, and by some measures, it achieved a10% return on these funds.Just imagine how much money Facebook could end up storing for users if their payment system became mainstream.\nBut to make matters better, Facebook might be looking to become an actual bank. This looks to be the plan with Diem. If Diem launched one day, it would have all the appeal of a cryptocurrency, and the stability of a regular fiat coin. The implications for Americans, who get paid in dollars, may not seem huge, but to people in smaller nations, being able to transact and store Diem will be a game-changer.\nIn 2020, it was calculated that the global banking system was about$2.5 trillion in size. This is Facebook's target. Also, we can add to this around2 billion peoplewho are currently unbanked, which something like Diem could tackle too.\nTakeaway\nFacebook is perhaps the most influential company of the 21st century. It seems kind of bizarre to think this when the company “merely” makes money by serving ads, but it holds one of the scarcest resources of our time; attention. With this, Facebook can do become a payment processor and even a world bank, by introducing the first-ever fully international and borderless currency.\nThere is a common denominator with Facebook’s actions. Because of its size, the company always faces opposition. We have seen this with WhatsApp Pay, just like we also saw it with Diem, formerly known as Libra. But Facebook always adjusts and comes back to get consumers, businesses, and regulators on board.\nUltimately, Facebook can leverage its audience in so many ways. Diem might be the most important part of this puzzle. With world governments behind this idea, the rest of the pieces would fall into place. Being a payment processing company becomes almost irrelevant, once you become the company that “controls” the means of payment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153189126,"gmtCreate":1625013473565,"gmtModify":1703850036267,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read. But EV is competitive in China","listText":"Good read. But EV is competitive in China","text":"Good read. But EV is competitive in China","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153189126","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255102196232248,"gmtCreate":1703294410066,"gmtModify":1703294413877,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have fun and roll the dice","listText":"Have fun and roll the dice","text":"Have fun and roll the dice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255102196232248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123094071,"gmtCreate":1624402768493,"gmtModify":1703835401601,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If there is huge&nbsp;growth in the subscription for Disney+ streaming services, higher&nbsp;chance of split share","listText":"If there is huge&nbsp;growth in the subscription for Disney+ streaming services, higher&nbsp;chance of split share","text":"If there is huge growth in the subscription for Disney+ streaming services, higher chance of split share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123094071","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186919064","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624352931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186919064?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 17:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Disney Stock Split This Year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186919064","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Disney's stock split history is reviewed for the possibility of a repeat this year.Its financials and cash flows are negatively impacted by the pandemic but analysts are projecting a strong recovery in the next few years.The Walt Disney Company could consider another stock split to \"get more people in the stock.\". Readers may come across different answers to the question in the header depending on the sources. According to YCharts, The Walt Disney Company  has had nine stock splits, three betwee","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Disney's stock split history is reviewed for the possibility of a repeat this year.</li>\n <li>Its financials and cash flows are negatively impacted by the pandemic but analysts are projecting a strong recovery in the next few years.</li>\n <li>If the consensus estimates come true, the share price of DIS has much room to head north in line with the EPS growth.</li>\n <li>The Walt Disney Company could consider another stock split to \"get more people in the stock.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Has Disney Stock Ever Split?</b></p>\n<p>Readers may come across different answers to the question in the header depending on the sources. According to YCharts, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has had nine stock splits, three between 1985 and 2000, and six prior to 1980.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd38f0d03c0480c1f6728aa9e8dd5cfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>On the other hand,<i>Stock Split History</i>and<i>Yahoo Finance</i>both reflect eight stock splits in Disney's history. However, the exercises in 1962 and 2007 seem more like bonus issues than stock splits. The first \"split\" for DIS stock was dated December 18, 1962. This was a 103 for 100 split, meaning that a shareholder with 100 shares of DIS pre-split will subsequently own 103 shares.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98283a2c39510a381b9f91cdc416f6f8\" tg-width=\"274\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source:StockSplitHistory.com</i></p>\n<p>As with all corporate matters, investors should refer to the official announcements to be sure. From Walt Disney's website under the Investor Relations section, the company provided a neat table under the Frequently Asked Questions [FAQs]. The table showed only seven past stock splits that happened between 1956 and 1998. This meant that DIS stock has not split for over two decades. Also, it shows that Walt Disney does not consider the 103 shares for 100 shares and 1,014 shares for 1,000 shares as stock splits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a398b378fd1cb185e5fe95cbaf2513d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: The Walt Disney Company</i></p>\n<p><b>Is Disney Stock Going To Split Again?</b></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) were among the prominent few companies that underwent stock splits recently. When Tesla announced itsfirst-ever stock spliton August 11 last year, the stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.</p>\n<p>Nvidia announced in May that its decision to do afour-for-one stock splitwas approved by the board. Its shares were trading above $500 before the announcement and are priced around $750 currently. Nvidia justified the proposed stock split as enabling its shares to become \"more accessible to investors and employees.\"</p>\n<p>The share price of Disney is currently around $172. It hit a high of $203.02 on March 8, 2021. Even at the peak, the share price was a fraction of what TSLA and NVDA were trading at prior to their stock split announcements. As such, is there an impetus for Disney?</p>\n<p>Well, the last time Disney had a stock split was July 9, 1998, and the pre-split share price was only $111. Apart from one stock split in 1973, the last six stock splits were done when its share price was below $200. A quote often attributed to Mark Twain goes: \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.\" It is probably timely to consider Disney could conduct a fresh stock split as its stock heads back towards $200.</p>\n<p>Disney's Valuation And Prospects Support A Stock Split</p>\n<p>The Walt Disney Company appeared to be heading for disaster when the COVID-19 pandemic struck last year. Its Disneyland theme parks and hotels around the world had to be shut for extended periods. Its cruise line and retail stores had to close for business as well. Its movies couldn't be shown as theaters were shut while film and TV productions had to be halted too.</p>\n<p>The challenges that the House of the Mouse faced were unprecedented. In the second fiscal quarter of 2020, its adjusted EPS fell to $0.60 a share from $1.61 a year earlier primarily due to the suspended operations.</p>\n<p>The management took proactive steps during the second quarter of 2020 to enhance Disney's liquidity position by issuing $6 billion of term debt. A week after the quarter ended, it issued another $925 million in term debt. In terms of net financial debt, however, Disney managed to hold steady and did not exceed the peak of above $50 billion following the addition of debt load to its balance sheet from the 21st Century Fox acquisition in 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd5da32f627c04144c275782ef135e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Although Disney's debt level remains elevated at 28 percent, its debt-to-assets remained close to its five-year average at around 25 percent. It is also comparatively lower than its industry peers. ViacomCBS (VIAC)(VIACA) has a debt-to-assets of 32.5 percent while Comcast (CMCSA) has a debt-to-assets of 37.2 percent. Netflix (NFLX) doesn't own any attraction parks but it has the highest debt-to-assets of 38.8 percent.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff01b9033cebf8c5e4fb15976c0d266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Looking at the debt-to-equity ratio, The Walt Disney Company is also the lowest among its peers. This suggests that Disney's capital structure could be conservative in its approach to debt relative to the industry.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c53bbfa821e92f67b05ae6c4a418bad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>However, dividend investors may have been disappointed with the decision of Disney's Board to forego the payment of dividends last year. Its last payment of $0.88 per share was on January 16, 2020, for those who had the shares on the record date of December 16, 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b599e7a38c7af0abe617f3e95e54a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bob Chapek, the Chief Executive Officer of Disney, said during the Credit Suisse 23rd Annual Communications Conference held on June 14 that the Board of Directors is prioritizing thefunding of its Direct-to-Consumer[DTC] business. He added that dividends will be \"a part of our long-term capital allocation strategy, for sure.\"</p>\n<p>Chapek also revealed what the board is considering:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"...they'll take into account what they’ve taken into account in the past, which is, what's our strategic investment outlook, where our alternative uses of capital and what are those priorities? What our financial leverage look like coming out of COVID? What the operating environment look like in terms of the release of restrictions that we've got that might constrain our business going forward, or at least give us some time to actually ramp back up to full operating mode, if you will? And what's really just the overall recovery of our businesses across the entire enterprise?\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>For now, Disney's financials are constrained. Its free cash flow is at a depressed level historically, primarily due to the weak cash from operations which in turn is due to the low revenue. The cash from operations on a trailing-twelve-month basis is at a multi-year low of $4.3 billion. Its new star division, Disney+, is unable to singlehandedly lift the company from its pandemic-impacted operations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501540384c7735541ed0eeb33116a073\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Wall Street analysts are not perturbed by the short-term difficulties faced by Disney. The consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal period ending September 2025 is $8.72, implying a sub-20 times forward P/E, a sharp drop from the one-year forward P/E of 72 times. It's thus likely that the share price would rise to bring the P/E ratio above the \"bargain\" sub-20 times level, increasing the justification for a stock split.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33bdfa14f2e1f94d872349194cef3d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</i></p>\n<p><b>Additional Justifications For A DIS Stock Split</b></p>\n<p>Given that one of the reasons for doing a stock split is to bring the share price much lower than the current level, double-digit pricing certainly fits the bill. A rhetorical repeat of a 3:1 stock split would bring the share price of Disney to around $57, making it look affordable psychologically, even though it is meaningless from the valuation angle.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, it appears that Disney prefers the prestige of a larger share price, given that it has long resisted a stock split (the last one being over 20 years ago). The management of Disney might regard DIS stock's elevated share price as a reflection of its achievements, especially considering the challenges during the pandemic. A stock split bringing the share price substantially lower has the reverse effect, making the company look less accomplished compared to, say, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) with its quadruple-digit share price.</p>\n<p>At the same time, while we recognize that calling a stock \"expensive\" based on the absolute price might sound silly, it is not uncommon to come across comments lamenting that tickers with share prices in the high triple-digits are \"expensive\" and those with single-digit share prices are \"bargains\".</p>\n<p>Given the option of purchasing partial shares provided by certain brokerages, the impetus to do a split is further diminished. However, judging from the cryptocurrency market, the notion that the price levels do have an effect on investors' mentality shouldn't be dismissed. For instance, the much lower-priced Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) appears to be more favored whether by short-term traders or longer-term investors compared to Bitcoin (BTC-USD).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb4b1d5343c9d189af17f7d9d72de30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Another oft-mentioned reason that companies do stock split is to improve their chances to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest and the most commonly followed equity indices. This is because the Dow is a price-weighted measurement stock market index and a high-priced component would skew the index.</p>\n<p>However, The Walt Disney Company is already a Dow component since May 6, 1991. Hence, this would not be a motivation. Nevertheless, those who trade options may welcome a stock split as it makes the option contracts more affordable.</p>\n<p>Whether a DIS stock split would happen this year is another big question. Fundamentally as I discussed earlier, it's a matter of time investors regain confidence in Disney's growth potential. Chart-wise, however, doesn't look good for Disney stock. Its gap in December last year has yet to be filled.</p>\n<p>At the same time, there appears to be a tail-end formation of a head-and-shoulder pattern, a bearish sign. Investors may wish to consider the mentioned factors instead of just looking at a potential jump should Disney announce a stock split.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eee7ab6b1236c4ed57d19afc78319174\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><i>Source: Yahoo Finance</i></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Disney Stock Split This Year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Disney Stock Split This Year?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 17:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435877-will-disney-stock-split><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDisney's stock split history is reviewed for the possibility of a repeat this year.\nIts financials and cash flows are negatively impacted by the pandemic but analysts are projecting a strong ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435877-will-disney-stock-split\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435877-will-disney-stock-split","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1186919064","content_text":"Summary\n\nDisney's stock split history is reviewed for the possibility of a repeat this year.\nIts financials and cash flows are negatively impacted by the pandemic but analysts are projecting a strong recovery in the next few years.\nIf the consensus estimates come true, the share price of DIS has much room to head north in line with the EPS growth.\nThe Walt Disney Company could consider another stock split to \"get more people in the stock.\"\n\nHas Disney Stock Ever Split?\nReaders may come across different answers to the question in the header depending on the sources. According to YCharts, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has had nine stock splits, three between 1985 and 2000, and six prior to 1980.\n\nOn the other hand,Stock Split HistoryandYahoo Financeboth reflect eight stock splits in Disney's history. However, the exercises in 1962 and 2007 seem more like bonus issues than stock splits. The first \"split\" for DIS stock was dated December 18, 1962. This was a 103 for 100 split, meaning that a shareholder with 100 shares of DIS pre-split will subsequently own 103 shares.\n\nSource:StockSplitHistory.com\nAs with all corporate matters, investors should refer to the official announcements to be sure. From Walt Disney's website under the Investor Relations section, the company provided a neat table under the Frequently Asked Questions [FAQs]. The table showed only seven past stock splits that happened between 1956 and 1998. This meant that DIS stock has not split for over two decades. Also, it shows that Walt Disney does not consider the 103 shares for 100 shares and 1,014 shares for 1,000 shares as stock splits.\n\nSource: The Walt Disney Company\nIs Disney Stock Going To Split Again?\nTesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) were among the prominent few companies that underwent stock splits recently. When Tesla announced itsfirst-ever stock spliton August 11 last year, the stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.\nNvidia announced in May that its decision to do afour-for-one stock splitwas approved by the board. Its shares were trading above $500 before the announcement and are priced around $750 currently. Nvidia justified the proposed stock split as enabling its shares to become \"more accessible to investors and employees.\"\nThe share price of Disney is currently around $172. It hit a high of $203.02 on March 8, 2021. Even at the peak, the share price was a fraction of what TSLA and NVDA were trading at prior to their stock split announcements. As such, is there an impetus for Disney?\nWell, the last time Disney had a stock split was July 9, 1998, and the pre-split share price was only $111. Apart from one stock split in 1973, the last six stock splits were done when its share price was below $200. A quote often attributed to Mark Twain goes: \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.\" It is probably timely to consider Disney could conduct a fresh stock split as its stock heads back towards $200.\nDisney's Valuation And Prospects Support A Stock Split\nThe Walt Disney Company appeared to be heading for disaster when the COVID-19 pandemic struck last year. Its Disneyland theme parks and hotels around the world had to be shut for extended periods. Its cruise line and retail stores had to close for business as well. Its movies couldn't be shown as theaters were shut while film and TV productions had to be halted too.\nThe challenges that the House of the Mouse faced were unprecedented. In the second fiscal quarter of 2020, its adjusted EPS fell to $0.60 a share from $1.61 a year earlier primarily due to the suspended operations.\nThe management took proactive steps during the second quarter of 2020 to enhance Disney's liquidity position by issuing $6 billion of term debt. A week after the quarter ended, it issued another $925 million in term debt. In terms of net financial debt, however, Disney managed to hold steady and did not exceed the peak of above $50 billion following the addition of debt load to its balance sheet from the 21st Century Fox acquisition in 2019.\n\nAlthough Disney's debt level remains elevated at 28 percent, its debt-to-assets remained close to its five-year average at around 25 percent. It is also comparatively lower than its industry peers. ViacomCBS (VIAC)(VIACA) has a debt-to-assets of 32.5 percent while Comcast (CMCSA) has a debt-to-assets of 37.2 percent. Netflix (NFLX) doesn't own any attraction parks but it has the highest debt-to-assets of 38.8 percent.\n\nLooking at the debt-to-equity ratio, The Walt Disney Company is also the lowest among its peers. This suggests that Disney's capital structure could be conservative in its approach to debt relative to the industry.\n\nHowever, dividend investors may have been disappointed with the decision of Disney's Board to forego the payment of dividends last year. Its last payment of $0.88 per share was on January 16, 2020, for those who had the shares on the record date of December 16, 2019.\n\nBob Chapek, the Chief Executive Officer of Disney, said during the Credit Suisse 23rd Annual Communications Conference held on June 14 that the Board of Directors is prioritizing thefunding of its Direct-to-Consumer[DTC] business. He added that dividends will be \"a part of our long-term capital allocation strategy, for sure.\"\nChapek also revealed what the board is considering:\n\n \"...they'll take into account what they’ve taken into account in the past, which is, what's our strategic investment outlook, where our alternative uses of capital and what are those priorities? What our financial leverage look like coming out of COVID? What the operating environment look like in terms of the release of restrictions that we've got that might constrain our business going forward, or at least give us some time to actually ramp back up to full operating mode, if you will? And what's really just the overall recovery of our businesses across the entire enterprise?\"\n\nFor now, Disney's financials are constrained. Its free cash flow is at a depressed level historically, primarily due to the weak cash from operations which in turn is due to the low revenue. The cash from operations on a trailing-twelve-month basis is at a multi-year low of $4.3 billion. Its new star division, Disney+, is unable to singlehandedly lift the company from its pandemic-impacted operations.\n\nNevertheless, Wall Street analysts are not perturbed by the short-term difficulties faced by Disney. The consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal period ending September 2025 is $8.72, implying a sub-20 times forward P/E, a sharp drop from the one-year forward P/E of 72 times. It's thus likely that the share price would rise to bring the P/E ratio above the \"bargain\" sub-20 times level, increasing the justification for a stock split.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nAdditional Justifications For A DIS Stock Split\nGiven that one of the reasons for doing a stock split is to bring the share price much lower than the current level, double-digit pricing certainly fits the bill. A rhetorical repeat of a 3:1 stock split would bring the share price of Disney to around $57, making it look affordable psychologically, even though it is meaningless from the valuation angle.\nOn the other hand, it appears that Disney prefers the prestige of a larger share price, given that it has long resisted a stock split (the last one being over 20 years ago). The management of Disney might regard DIS stock's elevated share price as a reflection of its achievements, especially considering the challenges during the pandemic. A stock split bringing the share price substantially lower has the reverse effect, making the company look less accomplished compared to, say, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) with its quadruple-digit share price.\nAt the same time, while we recognize that calling a stock \"expensive\" based on the absolute price might sound silly, it is not uncommon to come across comments lamenting that tickers with share prices in the high triple-digits are \"expensive\" and those with single-digit share prices are \"bargains\".\nGiven the option of purchasing partial shares provided by certain brokerages, the impetus to do a split is further diminished. However, judging from the cryptocurrency market, the notion that the price levels do have an effect on investors' mentality shouldn't be dismissed. For instance, the much lower-priced Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) appears to be more favored whether by short-term traders or longer-term investors compared to Bitcoin (BTC-USD).\n\nAnother oft-mentioned reason that companies do stock split is to improve their chances to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest and the most commonly followed equity indices. This is because the Dow is a price-weighted measurement stock market index and a high-priced component would skew the index.\nHowever, The Walt Disney Company is already a Dow component since May 6, 1991. Hence, this would not be a motivation. Nevertheless, those who trade options may welcome a stock split as it makes the option contracts more affordable.\nWhether a DIS stock split would happen this year is another big question. Fundamentally as I discussed earlier, it's a matter of time investors regain confidence in Disney's growth potential. Chart-wise, however, doesn't look good for Disney stock. Its gap in December last year has yet to be filled.\nAt the same time, there appears to be a tail-end formation of a head-and-shoulder pattern, a bearish sign. Investors may wish to consider the mentioned factors instead of just looking at a potential jump should Disney announce a stock split.\nSource: Yahoo Finance","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163419021,"gmtCreate":1623891010663,"gmtModify":1703822589461,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If there is a correction, good for the market and time to buy","listText":"If there is a correction, good for the market and time to buy","text":"If there is a correction, good for the market and time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163419021","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144713861","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623883569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144713861?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 06:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144713861","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 16  - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.The Fed cited an impr","content":"<p>June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.</p>\n<p>New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.</p>\n<p>The Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.</p>\n<p>\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.</p>\n<p>With inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.</p>\n<p>The Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.</p>\n<p>\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&amp;P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.</p>\n<p>Only two of the S&amp;P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.</p>\n<p>The decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 06:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.</p>\n<p>New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.</p>\n<p>The Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.</p>\n<p>\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.</p>\n<p>With inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.</p>\n<p>The Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.</p>\n<p>\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&amp;P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.</p>\n<p>Only two of the S&amp;P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.</p>\n<p>The decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144713861","content_text":"June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.\nNew projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.\nThe Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.\n\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.\nThe benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.\nWith inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.\nThe Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.\n\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.\nOnly two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.\nThe decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982392932,"gmtCreate":1667093834026,"gmtModify":1676537859314,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982392932","repostId":"1190202531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089604813,"gmtCreate":1649985515459,"gmtModify":1676534621911,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe he is preparing easter eggs for twitter. 😊","listText":"Maybe he is preparing easter eggs for twitter. 😊","text":"Maybe he is preparing easter eggs for twitter. 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089604813","repostId":"1123697249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123697249","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649978666,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123697249?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-15 07:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Hints at Twitter Plan B, Lambastes SEC Over Settlement","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123697249","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Offer not about making money, Tesla CEO says at TED eventBillionaire says ‘not sure’ he’ll be able t","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Offer not about making money, Tesla CEO says at TED event</li><li>Billionaire says ‘not sure’ he’ll be able to complete deal</li></ul><p>Elon Musk expressed doubt about whether he’ll succeed with his $43 billion offer to buy Twitter Inc. in his first public comments about the blockbuster deal.</p><p>“I am not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it,” the billionaire entrepreneur said Thursday at a TED event in Vancouver. Musk said he has a Plan B if Twitter rejects his offer, without offering more details.</p><p>The comments, made during a lengthy interview with TED head Chris Anderson, came hours after the world’s richest person and chief executive officer of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX roiled the financial world with the all-cash bid. With heightened interest in Musk’s activities, organizers of the conference made a last-minute change to make his prearranged appearance freely available online.</p><p>The offer is intended to create “an inclusive arena for free speech,” not as a way to make money, Musk said. He also said he has sufficient assets to complete the deal.</p><p>Twitter’s board views Musk’s move as unwelcome, The Information reported while he was still speaking, citing a person familiar with the situation.</p><p>The social-media company declined to comment beyond its earlier statement, which said the company would review Musk’s proposal and any response would be in the best interest of stockholders.</p><p>In the interview, Musk also criticized the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, saying he was essentially coerced into accepting a 2018 settlement in which he relinquished his role of chairman of Tesla’s board and paid a $20 million fine. The agreement came after Musk’s infamous tweet saying he had secured funding to take Tesla private.</p><p>Musk said Thursday that he had arranged the funding and said he was under pressure from the precarious financial situation of Tesla, which was struggling to ramp up the Model 3 sedan at the time.</p><p>“I was told by the banks that if I did not agree to settle with the SEC they would cease providing working capital and Tesla would go bankrupt immediately,” said Musk, who grew visibly emotional while speaking. “So that’s like having a gun to your child’s head. So I was forced to concede to the SEC, unlawfully.”</p><p><b>High Stakes</b></p><p>Musk, 50, revealed the proposed takeover of Twitter in an SEC filing earlier Thursday, after turning down the chance to take a board seat at the company. The bid is a high-stakes clash between Musk and the social media platform, which is used by more than 200 million people. Musk has been highly vocal about changes he’d like to see at the company.</p><p>Among Musk’s priorities for the platform: an edit button that would limit the amount of time that changes to a tweet could be made. Musk would also prioritize eliminating spam bots from the platform. He also thinks that the algorithm should be made public so there’s transparency on when tweets are changed, promoted or unpromoted.</p><p>Twitter’s shares on Thursday traded well below Musk’s $54.20 offer price, suggesting skepticism over the prospects of a deal. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a major Twitter shareholder,saidMusk’s offer doesn’t come “close to the intrinsic value” of the company “given its growth prospects.”</p><p>Musk said his intent “is to retain as many shareholders as is allowed by the law in a private company.”</p><p>Tesla’s shares fell 3.7% to $985 on Thursday, while Twitter slipped 1.7% to $45.08.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Hints at Twitter Plan B, Lambastes SEC Over Settlement</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Hints at Twitter Plan B, Lambastes SEC Over Settlement\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-15 07:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/musk-says-he-s-not-sure-he-ll-succeed-with-twitter-acquisition?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Offer not about making money, Tesla CEO says at TED eventBillionaire says ‘not sure’ he’ll be able to complete dealElon Musk expressed doubt about whether he’ll succeed with his $43 billion offer to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/musk-says-he-s-not-sure-he-ll-succeed-with-twitter-acquisition?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/musk-says-he-s-not-sure-he-ll-succeed-with-twitter-acquisition?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123697249","content_text":"Offer not about making money, Tesla CEO says at TED eventBillionaire says ‘not sure’ he’ll be able to complete dealElon Musk expressed doubt about whether he’ll succeed with his $43 billion offer to buy Twitter Inc. in his first public comments about the blockbuster deal.“I am not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it,” the billionaire entrepreneur said Thursday at a TED event in Vancouver. Musk said he has a Plan B if Twitter rejects his offer, without offering more details.The comments, made during a lengthy interview with TED head Chris Anderson, came hours after the world’s richest person and chief executive officer of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX roiled the financial world with the all-cash bid. With heightened interest in Musk’s activities, organizers of the conference made a last-minute change to make his prearranged appearance freely available online.The offer is intended to create “an inclusive arena for free speech,” not as a way to make money, Musk said. He also said he has sufficient assets to complete the deal.Twitter’s board views Musk’s move as unwelcome, The Information reported while he was still speaking, citing a person familiar with the situation.The social-media company declined to comment beyond its earlier statement, which said the company would review Musk’s proposal and any response would be in the best interest of stockholders.In the interview, Musk also criticized the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, saying he was essentially coerced into accepting a 2018 settlement in which he relinquished his role of chairman of Tesla’s board and paid a $20 million fine. The agreement came after Musk’s infamous tweet saying he had secured funding to take Tesla private.Musk said Thursday that he had arranged the funding and said he was under pressure from the precarious financial situation of Tesla, which was struggling to ramp up the Model 3 sedan at the time.“I was told by the banks that if I did not agree to settle with the SEC they would cease providing working capital and Tesla would go bankrupt immediately,” said Musk, who grew visibly emotional while speaking. “So that’s like having a gun to your child’s head. So I was forced to concede to the SEC, unlawfully.”High StakesMusk, 50, revealed the proposed takeover of Twitter in an SEC filing earlier Thursday, after turning down the chance to take a board seat at the company. The bid is a high-stakes clash between Musk and the social media platform, which is used by more than 200 million people. Musk has been highly vocal about changes he’d like to see at the company.Among Musk’s priorities for the platform: an edit button that would limit the amount of time that changes to a tweet could be made. Musk would also prioritize eliminating spam bots from the platform. He also thinks that the algorithm should be made public so there’s transparency on when tweets are changed, promoted or unpromoted.Twitter’s shares on Thursday traded well below Musk’s $54.20 offer price, suggesting skepticism over the prospects of a deal. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a major Twitter shareholder,saidMusk’s offer doesn’t come “close to the intrinsic value” of the company “given its growth prospects.”Musk said his intent “is to retain as many shareholders as is allowed by the law in a private company.”Tesla’s shares fell 3.7% to $985 on Thursday, while Twitter slipped 1.7% to $45.08.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155538754,"gmtCreate":1625444141078,"gmtModify":1703741701256,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worthy stock but overvalue at the moment","listText":"Worthy stock but overvalue at the moment","text":"Worthy stock but overvalue at the moment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155538754","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100563900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624956396,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100563900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook: Simply Unstoppable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100563900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets , cumulatively make for a compel","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.</li>\n <li>Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.</li>\n <li>The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.</li>\n <li>Although the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b3414073b72a391e760025594ec111f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>nemke/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Facebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!</p>\n<p><b>What is Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Known to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d08f4df186c4705a5300f40d6b8a5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>The world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.</p>\n<p>The firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the&nbsp;Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb9d05bb00f3038cec301c72ef56827\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>(Source:Pew Research Center)</span></p>\n<p>To Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.</p>\n<p>When we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than&nbsp;1000 companies publicly committed&nbsp;to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.</p>\n<p>Despite this, Facebook&nbsp;beat on Q2 earnings&nbsp;and saw an increase of&nbsp;10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.</p>\n<p>The results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Other risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694ca79d59162e95f05335ebefbca3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Though representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.</p>\n<p>The current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.</p>\n<p>According to aCNBC article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>When the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.</p>\n<p>However, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.</p>\n<p>Though Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.</p>\n<p><b>Moat</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2057a83640201edd89430e754f3f8525\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US &amp; Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US &amp; Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3456321584d2eea288f7e410215571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US &amp; Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84eaec3de9bafd595bf4ecf9ffdae16a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US &amp; Canada and 10.2% in Europe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d72be6c3ca7eb809567503ffc1d4ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>If Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Tactics</b></p>\n<p>When we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d1d27ff399e3e6fdfbc44a3ff1fb6e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>The firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87012cd9e376a0bed27a095b01828\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>What’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.</p>\n<p>Their continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>Of the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1367468f26c73bde43f494b2b7fb49d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>FB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&amp;D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&amp;D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b923685aa0489833ae8f50fcddf3601\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>A large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash &amp; Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b40cadc31458233d0ea83ce4917c33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Given the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b82506a0385a1265c494b21462678\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"43\"><span>(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)</span></p>\n<p>In their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Being a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878b205b837634b7d2528f57ebe84fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Looking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707f8cfee45ce9ebb0e3ac961e78f48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Since 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444e1473e814530e2332cea02637af53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8494d3084eed106a9cb0bff0f27cfe7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>At an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55014da5e82d1a67caaeb34766b35940\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.</p>\n<p>Now shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d67f3c257657bc10ee6be38c16d2a1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe26a8eabec7045dc5a904497737623\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Despite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247661f12f62820f6266763f49531355\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>However, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce908799f1bf9091b49b94e03db7e476\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>However, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.</p>\n<p>With all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>To conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.</p>\n<p>With so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.</p>\n<p>That being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.</p>\n<p>End day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook: Simply Unstoppable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: Simply Unstoppable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100563900","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.\nThe strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.\nAlthough the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.\n\nnemke/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nFacebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!\nWhat is Facebook\nKnown to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.\n(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nThe world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.\nThe firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)\n(Source:Pew Research Center)\nTo Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.\nWhen we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than 1000 companies publicly committed to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.\nDespite this, Facebook beat on Q2 earnings and saw an increase of 10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.\nThe results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.\nRisks\nOther risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThough representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.\nThe current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.\nAccording to aCNBC article:\n\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n\nWhen the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.\nHowever, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.\nThough Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.\nMoat\nAs mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nDespite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US & Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US & Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US & Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US & Canada and 10.2% in Europe.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nIf Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.\nGrowth Tactics\nWhen we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nThe firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:\n\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nWhat’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.\nTheir continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.\nFinancials\nOf the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.\nData by YCharts\nFB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nA large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash & Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nGiven the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.\n(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)\nIn their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.\nValuations\nBeing a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nLooking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nSince 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nMoreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nAt an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nWhen we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.\nNow shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nTurning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.\nData by YCharts\nDespite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nHowever, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.\nWith all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.\nInvestor Takeaways\nTo conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.\nWith so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.\nThat being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.\nEnd day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104008391,"gmtCreate":1620343722113,"gmtModify":1704342151243,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lastly, don’t borrow money to play stocks","listText":"Lastly, don’t borrow money to play stocks","text":"Lastly, don’t borrow money to play stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104008391","repostId":"2133387578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133387578","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1620296700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133387578?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-06 18:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Think Stocks Will Crash in May? Do These 4 Things Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133387578","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Stock market downturns can be daunting. Here's what you need to do to prepare.","content":"<p>When will the stock market crash? That's the big question on many investors' minds at a time when stocks are, across the board, pretty overvalued. In fact, if the stock market doesn't tank completely in the near term, investors should at the very least begin bracing for a correction, where stock values drop 10% or more.</p>\n<p>Of course, the idea of a stock market crash can be very scary, especially if you're a newer investor and you haven't experienced <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> before. But rather than allow yourself to get spooked, you're better off taking action. Here are a few crucial moves to make if you're worried that May is when the stock market will finally take a major turn for the worse.</p>\n<h2>1. Pad your emergency savings</h2>\n<p>What does the amount of money you have in the bank have to do with your stock portfolio? A lot, actually. If you secure your emergency fund so you have ample cash to cover unplanned expenses, you won't have to tap your investments out of desperation. That could, in turn, prevent you from needing to liquidate stocks at a time when their value has dropped substantially.</p>\n<h2>2. Diversify</h2>\n<p>A diverse portfolio could help you ride out a stock market crash, so if you're heavily invested in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> or two market segments right now, take the opportunity to branch out -- before things take a turn for the worse. Diversifying could simply mean buying stocks in sectors you're not currently invested in. Or you could load up on some index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that give you access to the broader market. For example, if you invest in an <b>S&amp;P 500</b> index fund or ETF, you'll effectively be putting money into the 500 largest publicly traded companies on the market. It doesn't get much more diverse than that.</p>\n<h2>3. Add dividend stocks to your portfolio</h2>\n<p>Companies that pay dividends tend to do so even when stock values are down. And that's a good way to hedge your bets. If your portfolio takes a hit, you can offset those losses with incoming dividend payments, and that's money you'll have the option to cash out and use as needed or reinvest.</p>\n<h2>4. Stockpile some cash</h2>\n<p>Market crashes tend to spell opportunity, and so it's important to have cash at the ready for when stocks go on sale. While your first priority should be to shore up your emergency fund, if you're also able to divert some extra cash to your brokerage account, you'll put yourself in a great position to pounce while stocks are temporarily discounted.</p>\n<p>Even if you're a seasoned investor who follows the market closely, you probably won't be able to predict exactly when the stock market will crash next. While a May crash is certainly possible, it's also certainly not a given. But rather than spin your wheels trying to determine when that crash is coming, you should instead focus your energy on checking off the boxes above. That way, you'll really be ready for whatever is ahead.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Think Stocks Will Crash in May? Do These 4 Things Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThink Stocks Will Crash in May? Do These 4 Things Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-06 18:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/06/think-stocks-will-crash-in-may-do-these-4-things-n/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When will the stock market crash? That's the big question on many investors' minds at a time when stocks are, across the board, pretty overvalued. In fact, if the stock market doesn't tank completely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/06/think-stocks-will-crash-in-may-do-these-4-things-n/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/06/think-stocks-will-crash-in-may-do-these-4-things-n/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133387578","content_text":"When will the stock market crash? That's the big question on many investors' minds at a time when stocks are, across the board, pretty overvalued. In fact, if the stock market doesn't tank completely in the near term, investors should at the very least begin bracing for a correction, where stock values drop 10% or more.\nOf course, the idea of a stock market crash can be very scary, especially if you're a newer investor and you haven't experienced one before. But rather than allow yourself to get spooked, you're better off taking action. Here are a few crucial moves to make if you're worried that May is when the stock market will finally take a major turn for the worse.\n1. Pad your emergency savings\nWhat does the amount of money you have in the bank have to do with your stock portfolio? A lot, actually. If you secure your emergency fund so you have ample cash to cover unplanned expenses, you won't have to tap your investments out of desperation. That could, in turn, prevent you from needing to liquidate stocks at a time when their value has dropped substantially.\n2. Diversify\nA diverse portfolio could help you ride out a stock market crash, so if you're heavily invested in one or two market segments right now, take the opportunity to branch out -- before things take a turn for the worse. Diversifying could simply mean buying stocks in sectors you're not currently invested in. Or you could load up on some index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that give you access to the broader market. For example, if you invest in an S&P 500 index fund or ETF, you'll effectively be putting money into the 500 largest publicly traded companies on the market. It doesn't get much more diverse than that.\n3. Add dividend stocks to your portfolio\nCompanies that pay dividends tend to do so even when stock values are down. And that's a good way to hedge your bets. If your portfolio takes a hit, you can offset those losses with incoming dividend payments, and that's money you'll have the option to cash out and use as needed or reinvest.\n4. Stockpile some cash\nMarket crashes tend to spell opportunity, and so it's important to have cash at the ready for when stocks go on sale. While your first priority should be to shore up your emergency fund, if you're also able to divert some extra cash to your brokerage account, you'll put yourself in a great position to pounce while stocks are temporarily discounted.\nEven if you're a seasoned investor who follows the market closely, you probably won't be able to predict exactly when the stock market will crash next. While a May crash is certainly possible, it's also certainly not a given. But rather than spin your wheels trying to determine when that crash is coming, you should instead focus your energy on checking off the boxes above. That way, you'll really be ready for whatever is ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576456086582950","authorId":"3576456086582950","name":"tungngie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988bf89c2727c98e8bd27200a813c1b2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576456086582950","authorIdStr":"3576456086582950"},"content":"so true. although we see leverage and margin can earn more, we ought to calculate the risk and our capabilities to suffer the negative leverage or pay bk in time for margin.","text":"so true. although we see leverage and margin can earn more, we ought to calculate the risk and our capabilities to suffer the negative leverage or pay bk in time for margin.","html":"so true. although we see leverage and margin can earn more, we ought to calculate the risk and our capabilities to suffer the negative leverage or pay bk in time for margin."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916332408,"gmtCreate":1664507971504,"gmtModify":1676537468433,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916332408","repostId":"2271698749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2271698749","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664500788,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2271698749?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 09:19","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Dear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for Oct. 7","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2271698749","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nio (NIO) will host Nio Berlin 2022 on Oct. 7.At the event, the EV maker will launch the ET5, ET7, a","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Nio</b> (<b><u>NIO</u></b>) will host Nio Berlin 2022 on Oct. 7.</li><li>At the event, the EV maker will launch the ET5, ET7, and ES7 models in Europe.</li><li>Shares of NIO stock are down over 50% year-to-date.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/523d91d4fc8d12648cf0db30b54544af\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: THINK A / Shutterstock.com</p><p><b>Nio</b> (NYSE:<b><u>NIO</u></b>) stock is in the red today, although a positive catalyst is just around the corner. On Oct. 7, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) company will host Nio Berlin 2022, which is expected to be the European version of Nio Day. The event will carry the theme “A New Horizon,” which CEO William Li explains is about “exploring new possibilities in our life.”</p><p>Earlier this week, it was announced that Nio would purchase a 12% stake in lithium company <b>Greenwing Resources</b>. The EV company agreed to pay $12 million in exchange for 21.81 million shares of Greenwing at a price of 55 cents per share. Nio will also receive call options to acquire between 20% and 40% ownership of <b>Andes Litio</b>. Andes owns the rights to Argentina’s San Jorge lithium project. Greenwing will use at least 80% of the proceeds towards lithium exploration in the San Jorge project and other working capital costs.</p><p>Nio’s Greenwing stake is a move to acquire a key component of EV batteries in a year that has been plagued with supply chain inefficiencies. With that in mind, let’s get into the details of Nio Berlin 2022.</p><h2>NIO Stock: Nio’s Plans for Nio Berlin 2022</h2><p>On Oct. 7, Nio will unveil its ET5, ET7, and ES7 models in Europe. All three models utilize the NT 2.0 platform. In a phone interview earlier this month, President Qin Lihong hinted that further models may be launched in Europe later. Lihong and Li are currently on a 10-day road trip across Europe to share company developments.</p><p>The company is quickly expanding into European countries. By 2025, Nio plans on building 1,000 battery swap stations outside of China, with the majority of them in Europe. Lihong added:</p><blockquote>We are comprehensively ahead of our competitors in terms of products and services. It’s true there will be more EV models to be launched in Europe in three years, but we are also making more progress.</blockquote><p>Nio first expanded into foreign markets last May when it began selling EVs in Norway. This year, the automaker will expand into Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Battery leasing and swapping centers are already active in Norway for the ES8, with two stations currently active. Furthermore, Hungary was the recipient of Nio’s first overseas power plant earlier this month. The plant will be used to make products like battery swapping stations, reducing shipping costs when compared to shipped products from China.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for Oct. 7</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for Oct. 7\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-30 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-oct-7/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio (NIO) will host Nio Berlin 2022 on Oct. 7.At the event, the EV maker will launch the ET5, ET7, and ES7 models in Europe.Shares of NIO stock are down over 50% year-to-date.Source: THINK A / ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-oct-7/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念","NIO":"蔚来","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-oct-7/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2271698749","content_text":"Nio (NIO) will host Nio Berlin 2022 on Oct. 7.At the event, the EV maker will launch the ET5, ET7, and ES7 models in Europe.Shares of NIO stock are down over 50% year-to-date.Source: THINK A / Shutterstock.comNio (NYSE:NIO) stock is in the red today, although a positive catalyst is just around the corner. On Oct. 7, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) company will host Nio Berlin 2022, which is expected to be the European version of Nio Day. The event will carry the theme “A New Horizon,” which CEO William Li explains is about “exploring new possibilities in our life.”Earlier this week, it was announced that Nio would purchase a 12% stake in lithium company Greenwing Resources. The EV company agreed to pay $12 million in exchange for 21.81 million shares of Greenwing at a price of 55 cents per share. Nio will also receive call options to acquire between 20% and 40% ownership of Andes Litio. Andes owns the rights to Argentina’s San Jorge lithium project. Greenwing will use at least 80% of the proceeds towards lithium exploration in the San Jorge project and other working capital costs.Nio’s Greenwing stake is a move to acquire a key component of EV batteries in a year that has been plagued with supply chain inefficiencies. With that in mind, let’s get into the details of Nio Berlin 2022.NIO Stock: Nio’s Plans for Nio Berlin 2022On Oct. 7, Nio will unveil its ET5, ET7, and ES7 models in Europe. All three models utilize the NT 2.0 platform. In a phone interview earlier this month, President Qin Lihong hinted that further models may be launched in Europe later. Lihong and Li are currently on a 10-day road trip across Europe to share company developments.The company is quickly expanding into European countries. By 2025, Nio plans on building 1,000 battery swap stations outside of China, with the majority of them in Europe. Lihong added:We are comprehensively ahead of our competitors in terms of products and services. It’s true there will be more EV models to be launched in Europe in three years, but we are also making more progress.Nio first expanded into foreign markets last May when it began selling EVs in Norway. This year, the automaker will expand into Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Battery leasing and swapping centers are already active in Norway for the ES8, with two stations currently active. Furthermore, Hungary was the recipient of Nio’s first overseas power plant earlier this month. The plant will be used to make products like battery swapping stations, reducing shipping costs when compared to shipped products from China.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342893370,"gmtCreate":1618195231390,"gmtModify":1704707358212,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will be interesting to see what nvidia has to offer","listText":"Will be interesting to see what nvidia has to offer","text":"Will be interesting to see what nvidia has to offer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342893370","repostId":"1137529737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137529737","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618184239,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137529737?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 07:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137529737","media":"Barrons","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of ","content":"<p>First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, followed&nbsp;by Bank of&nbsp;America and Citigroup on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.</p><p>Other notable companies reporting this week include industrial&nbsp;supplier&nbsp;Fastenalon Tuesday.Delta Air Lines,PepsiCo,and&nbsp;UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;publish results on Thursday. And&nbsp;Kansas City Southern&nbsp;reports on Friday.&nbsp; A total of 22&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report this week, followed by 64 next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac3c413681d3a9e134223c4d1a02d883\" tg-width=\"1410\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It’s also a busy week for economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March and the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Then on Thursday, the Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. And on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.</p><p>Housing-market data out this week include the National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April on Thursday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for March on Friday.</p><p><b>Monday 4/12</b></p><p>Nvidia&nbsp;hosts its 2021 investor day in conjunction with its GPU Technology conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address.</p><p><b>Tuesday 4/13</b></p><p>Fastenal reports quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports the consumer price index for March. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, matching the February data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2%, after edging up 0.1% in February.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 98 reading, higher than February’s 95.8.</p><p><b>Wednesday 4/14</b></p><p><b>Earnings season begins</b>&nbsp;in earnest with some of the largest money-center and investment banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs Group release first-quarter results before the market open.</p><p>First Republic Bankreleases earnings.</p><p><b>Coinbase Global</b>&nbsp;is set to&nbsp;make its Wall Street debut&nbsp;on Wednesday through a direct listing of its shares on the Nasdaq.</p><p><b>The BLS reports</b>&nbsp;export and import price data for March. Expectations are for a 1% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.8%. This compares with gains of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in February.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases the beige book for the second of eight times this year. The beige book gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 Fed districts.</p><p><b>Thursday 4/15</b></p><p>Bank of America,BlackRock,Charles Schwab,Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo,PPG Industries,Truist Financial,U.S. Bancorp,and UnitedHealth Group report quarterly results.</p><p><b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April. Economists forecast an 84.5 reading, greater than the March data. Any reading above 50 indicates that home builders are bullish on the housing market for the next six months.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 1.3% month over month, after declining 3% in February.</p><p><b>Friday 4/16</b></p><p>Bank of New York Mellon,Citizens Financial Group,Kansas City Southern, Morgan Stanley,PNC Financial Services Group,and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b>&nbsp;releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for an 88 reading. March’s 84.9 figure was the highest since a year earlier.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports new residential construction data for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million housing starts, a 13% month-over-month increase.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 07:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GS":"高盛","JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利",".DJI":"道琼斯","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137529737","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.Other notable companies reporting this week include industrial supplier Fastenalon Tuesday.Delta Air Lines,PepsiCo,and UnitedHealth Group publish results on Thursday. And Kansas City Southern reports on Friday.  A total of 22 S&P 500 companies report this week, followed by 64 next week.It’s also a busy week for economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March and the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Then on Thursday, the Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. And on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.Housing-market data out this week include the National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April on Thursday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for March on Friday.Monday 4/12Nvidia hosts its 2021 investor day in conjunction with its GPU Technology conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address.Tuesday 4/13Fastenal reports quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, matching the February data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2%, after edging up 0.1% in February.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 98 reading, higher than February’s 95.8.Wednesday 4/14Earnings season begins in earnest with some of the largest money-center and investment banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs Group release first-quarter results before the market open.First Republic Bankreleases earnings.Coinbase Global is set to make its Wall Street debut on Wednesday through a direct listing of its shares on the Nasdaq.The BLS reports export and import price data for March. Expectations are for a 1% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.8%. This compares with gains of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in February.The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the second of eight times this year. The beige book gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 Fed districts.Thursday 4/15Bank of America,BlackRock,Charles Schwab,Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo,PPG Industries,Truist Financial,U.S. Bancorp,and UnitedHealth Group report quarterly results.The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April. Economists forecast an 84.5 reading, greater than the March data. Any reading above 50 indicates that home builders are bullish on the housing market for the next six months.The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 1.3% month over month, after declining 3% in February.Friday 4/16Bank of New York Mellon,Citizens Financial Group,Kansas City Southern, Morgan Stanley,PNC Financial Services Group,and State Street hold conference calls to discuss earnings.The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for an 88 reading. March’s 84.9 figure was the highest since a year earlier.The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million housing starts, a 13% month-over-month increase.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915878624,"gmtCreate":1665016117768,"gmtModify":1676537543940,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unpredictable...","listText":"Unpredictable...","text":"Unpredictable...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915878624","repostId":"2273234868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273234868","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665011911,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273234868?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk \"Should Own Twitter by Next Week\", Says Wedbush Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273234868","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Twitter stock dipped a bit on Wednesday as Wall Street eagerly awaited an update on the social-media","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Twitter stock dipped a bit on Wednesday as Wall Street eagerly awaited an update on the social-media firm&#39;s talks with Elon Musk about his proposal to move forward with his $44 billion acquisition.</p><p>With Musk once again willing to purchase Twitter (ticker: TWTR) for $54.20 a share rather than try his luck in court, lawyers for Tesla&#39;s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> CEO and Twitter&#39;s lawyers will need to hash out what that means for their legal battle. The Wall Street Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter, reported both sides were continuing talks about closing the deal on Wednesday. The report added that the sides hoped to have an agreement soon.</p><p>&#34;We believe this will be closed by next week and minimal speed bumps ahead to close,&#34; Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron&#39;s via email. &#34;Musk should own Twitter by next week.&#34;</p><p>In the meantime, Chancellor Kathaleen St. J. McCormick wrote to counsel for both sides that neither party has moved for a stay. &#34;I, therefore, continue to press on toward our trial set to begin on Oct. 17, 2022,&#34; Chancellor McCormick wrote.</p><p>Twitter declined to comment. Representatives for Musk&#39;s legal team did immediately not return a request seeking comment.</p><p>Ives wrote that it would be a major snafu for the deal if the trial goes ahead.</p><p>Twitter stock fell 1.4% to close at $51.30 on Wednesday. That&#39;s still a slight discount to Musk&#39;s $54.20 offer.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk \"Should Own Twitter by Next Week\", Says Wedbush Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk \"Should Own Twitter by Next Week\", Says Wedbush Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-06 07:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Twitter stock dipped a bit on Wednesday as Wall Street eagerly awaited an update on the social-media firm&#39;s talks with Elon Musk about his proposal to move forward with his $44 billion acquisition.</p><p>With Musk once again willing to purchase Twitter (ticker: TWTR) for $54.20 a share rather than try his luck in court, lawyers for Tesla&#39;s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> CEO and Twitter&#39;s lawyers will need to hash out what that means for their legal battle. The Wall Street Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter, reported both sides were continuing talks about closing the deal on Wednesday. The report added that the sides hoped to have an agreement soon.</p><p>&#34;We believe this will be closed by next week and minimal speed bumps ahead to close,&#34; Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron&#39;s via email. &#34;Musk should own Twitter by next week.&#34;</p><p>In the meantime, Chancellor Kathaleen St. J. McCormick wrote to counsel for both sides that neither party has moved for a stay. &#34;I, therefore, continue to press on toward our trial set to begin on Oct. 17, 2022,&#34; Chancellor McCormick wrote.</p><p>Twitter declined to comment. Representatives for Musk&#39;s legal team did immediately not return a request seeking comment.</p><p>Ives wrote that it would be a major snafu for the deal if the trial goes ahead.</p><p>Twitter stock fell 1.4% to close at $51.30 on Wednesday. That&#39;s still a slight discount to Musk&#39;s $54.20 offer.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273234868","content_text":"Twitter stock dipped a bit on Wednesday as Wall Street eagerly awaited an update on the social-media firm's talks with Elon Musk about his proposal to move forward with his $44 billion acquisition.With Musk once again willing to purchase Twitter (ticker: TWTR) for $54.20 a share rather than try his luck in court, lawyers for Tesla's $(TSLA)$ CEO and Twitter's lawyers will need to hash out what that means for their legal battle. The Wall Street Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter, reported both sides were continuing talks about closing the deal on Wednesday. The report added that the sides hoped to have an agreement soon.\"We believe this will be closed by next week and minimal speed bumps ahead to close,\" Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron's via email. \"Musk should own Twitter by next week.\"In the meantime, Chancellor Kathaleen St. J. McCormick wrote to counsel for both sides that neither party has moved for a stay. \"I, therefore, continue to press on toward our trial set to begin on Oct. 17, 2022,\" Chancellor McCormick wrote.Twitter declined to comment. Representatives for Musk's legal team did immediately not return a request seeking comment.Ives wrote that it would be a major snafu for the deal if the trial goes ahead.Twitter stock fell 1.4% to close at $51.30 on Wednesday. That's still a slight discount to Musk's $54.20 offer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999603721,"gmtCreate":1660522228365,"gmtModify":1676533484230,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Competitive market","listText":"Competitive market","text":"Competitive market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999603721","repostId":"2259672447","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259672447","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660520549,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259672447?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"YouTube Advances Plans for Streaming Video Marketplace","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259672447","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"YouTube is planning to launch an online store for streaming video services and has renewed talks wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>YouTube is planning to launch an online store for streaming video services and has renewed talks with entertainment companies about participating in the platform, according to people close to the recent discussions.</p><p>The company hopes the new platform, which it is referring to internally as a &#34;channel store&#34; and which has been in the works for at least 18 months, could be available as early as this fall, some of the people said.</p><p>YouTube currently allows subscribers to YouTube TV, its $64.99-a-month online package of cable channels, to add on a subscription to services such as HBO Max. The new marketplace would allow consumers to choose streaming services a la carte through the main YouTube app.</p><p>YouTube, which is owned by Alphabet Inc., will be joining the likes of Amazon.com Inc., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku Inc</a>. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc.</a>, which all have their own hubs to sell streaming video services. With an array of apps now available, these tech giants are trying to position themselves as the go-to place for consumers to get access to all of their favorite movies and shows. Selling multiple services through a single app can make life easier for consumers.</p><p>Typically, companies with streaming hubs get a share of revenue from purchases within their marketplaces. YouTube is discussing splitting subscription revenue with streaming partners, although the terms may vary widely for each partner, according to people familiar with the situation. YouTube declined to comment.</p><p>For streaming video services, which are facing greater competition and slowing growth in the U.S., the YouTube store offers another avenue to get in front of potential customers. Companies are exploring a variety of new marketing and distribution strategies to boost sign-ups.</p><p>NBCUniversal&#39;s Peacock has had discussions with potential partners about adding their streaming services to its app, according to people familiar with the discussions. Peacock declined to comment.</p><p>Walmart is contemplating adding streaming services as a new perk to its membership program. Netflix Inc. and other streaming services have agreed to be part of Verizon&#39;s new Plus Play subscription manager, which lets customers sign up for and manage their streaming services through the connectivity company&#39;s interface.</p><p>&#34;They are making their services available in as many places as possible, so that they have as big a shot as possible of getting people,&#34; said Bill Rouhana, chief executive of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSSEP\">Chicken Soup</a> for the Soul Entertainment Inc., which owns a large stable of free, ad-supported streaming channels.</p><p>There are trade-offs to consider for streaming services: partnering with other companies means having less potential revenue and less control over customers&#39; data.</p><p>Still, more streaming services are looking to bundle because it creates a better experience for consumers and they are less likely to cancel subscriptions, said Jeffrey Hirsch, president and chief executive of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STRZA\">Starz</a>, which has bundled its streaming offering with Walt Disney Co. in Latin America and Canal+ in France. &#34;Simplicity is always a great thing for the consumer,&#34; he said.</p><p>YouTube in 2020 was discussing launching an online streaming video store, the Information previously reported. Now, the idea appears to be gaining traction with entertainment companies hungry for new audiences. YouTube has pitched the scale and diversity of its global audience as a reason why streaming services should join the effort, the people close to the discussions said. YouTube has more than two billion monthly logged-in users, according to Google.</p><p>The pitch is that the new YouTube channel store would offer great marketing for streaming services because consumers could watch trailers of shows or movies free on YouTube and then easily pay to subscribe to the service.</p><p>WarnerMedia -- the company now known as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> -- last year pulled its HBO Max streaming service off Amazon Prime Video Channels because its CEO at the time, Jason Kilar, didn&#39;t want to share data or give Amazon a direct relationship with its customers. At the time, 4.5 million of HBO Max&#39;s 70 million subscribers came from Amazon Channels, according to a person familiar with the situation. Now, Warner Bros. Discovery is negotiating to get HBO Max back on Amazon Prime Video Channels, the person said.</p><p>Beyond making their services available in stores like Amazon&#39;s and the one YouTube is building, streaming companies are exploring ways to package their own services. Disney offers a bundle of its Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ services at a lower price than what customers would pay for each separately. Such arrangements typically help keep customers longer, according to some industry analysts.</p><p>Paramount+ in the next few weeks plans to start offering its Showtime streaming service as a tab within its platform, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Down the line the company is discussing adding its other streaming service, BET+, the people said.</p><p>All three major wireless carriers have for years offered free streaming services with some of their long-term cell-service plans. AT&amp;T Inc., which was HBO&#39;s parent company until April, for years offered HBO free to some of its cable and wireless customers. The arrangement briefly ended this year after AT&amp;T merged media assets with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBDWV\">Discovery Inc</a>., but the companies have since rekindled the relationship.</p><p>T-Mobile offers free Netflix to some of its customers and Verizon offers six months of Disney+ to customers on some of its wireless plans.</p></body></html>","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>YouTube Advances Plans for Streaming Video Marketplace</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYouTube Advances Plans for Streaming Video Marketplace\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-15 07:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-advances-plans-for-streaming-video-marketplace-11660341418?mod=tech_lead_pos3><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>YouTube is planning to launch an online store for streaming video services and has renewed talks with entertainment companies about participating in the platform, according to people close to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-advances-plans-for-streaming-video-marketplace-11660341418?mod=tech_lead_pos3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-advances-plans-for-streaming-video-marketplace-11660341418?mod=tech_lead_pos3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259672447","content_text":"YouTube is planning to launch an online store for streaming video services and has renewed talks with entertainment companies about participating in the platform, according to people close to the recent discussions.The company hopes the new platform, which it is referring to internally as a \"channel store\" and which has been in the works for at least 18 months, could be available as early as this fall, some of the people said.YouTube currently allows subscribers to YouTube TV, its $64.99-a-month online package of cable channels, to add on a subscription to services such as HBO Max. The new marketplace would allow consumers to choose streaming services a la carte through the main YouTube app.YouTube, which is owned by Alphabet Inc., will be joining the likes of Amazon.com Inc., Roku Inc. and Apple Inc., which all have their own hubs to sell streaming video services. With an array of apps now available, these tech giants are trying to position themselves as the go-to place for consumers to get access to all of their favorite movies and shows. Selling multiple services through a single app can make life easier for consumers.Typically, companies with streaming hubs get a share of revenue from purchases within their marketplaces. YouTube is discussing splitting subscription revenue with streaming partners, although the terms may vary widely for each partner, according to people familiar with the situation. YouTube declined to comment.For streaming video services, which are facing greater competition and slowing growth in the U.S., the YouTube store offers another avenue to get in front of potential customers. Companies are exploring a variety of new marketing and distribution strategies to boost sign-ups.NBCUniversal's Peacock has had discussions with potential partners about adding their streaming services to its app, according to people familiar with the discussions. Peacock declined to comment.Walmart is contemplating adding streaming services as a new perk to its membership program. Netflix Inc. and other streaming services have agreed to be part of Verizon's new Plus Play subscription manager, which lets customers sign up for and manage their streaming services through the connectivity company's interface.\"They are making their services available in as many places as possible, so that they have as big a shot as possible of getting people,\" said Bill Rouhana, chief executive of Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc., which owns a large stable of free, ad-supported streaming channels.There are trade-offs to consider for streaming services: partnering with other companies means having less potential revenue and less control over customers' data.Still, more streaming services are looking to bundle because it creates a better experience for consumers and they are less likely to cancel subscriptions, said Jeffrey Hirsch, president and chief executive of Starz, which has bundled its streaming offering with Walt Disney Co. in Latin America and Canal+ in France. \"Simplicity is always a great thing for the consumer,\" he said.YouTube in 2020 was discussing launching an online streaming video store, the Information previously reported. Now, the idea appears to be gaining traction with entertainment companies hungry for new audiences. YouTube has pitched the scale and diversity of its global audience as a reason why streaming services should join the effort, the people close to the discussions said. YouTube has more than two billion monthly logged-in users, according to Google.The pitch is that the new YouTube channel store would offer great marketing for streaming services because consumers could watch trailers of shows or movies free on YouTube and then easily pay to subscribe to the service.WarnerMedia -- the company now known as Warner Bros. Discovery -- last year pulled its HBO Max streaming service off Amazon Prime Video Channels because its CEO at the time, Jason Kilar, didn't want to share data or give Amazon a direct relationship with its customers. At the time, 4.5 million of HBO Max's 70 million subscribers came from Amazon Channels, according to a person familiar with the situation. Now, Warner Bros. Discovery is negotiating to get HBO Max back on Amazon Prime Video Channels, the person said.Beyond making their services available in stores like Amazon's and the one YouTube is building, streaming companies are exploring ways to package their own services. Disney offers a bundle of its Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ services at a lower price than what customers would pay for each separately. Such arrangements typically help keep customers longer, according to some industry analysts.Paramount+ in the next few weeks plans to start offering its Showtime streaming service as a tab within its platform, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Down the line the company is discussing adding its other streaming service, BET+, the people said.All three major wireless carriers have for years offered free streaming services with some of their long-term cell-service plans. AT&T Inc., which was HBO's parent company until April, for years offered HBO free to some of its cable and wireless customers. The arrangement briefly ended this year after AT&T merged media assets with Discovery Inc., but the companies have since rekindled the relationship.T-Mobile offers free Netflix to some of its customers and Verizon offers six months of Disney+ to customers on some of its wireless plans.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034054435,"gmtCreate":1647740871224,"gmtModify":1676534261857,"author":{"id":"3578294438049176","authorId":"3578294438049176","name":"Chiweii","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9617afaae7c8bfb14f92a88d964ccb33","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578294438049176","authorIdStr":"3578294438049176"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long article but worth to read","listText":"Long article but worth to read","text":"Long article but worth to read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034054435","repostId":"2220777059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220777059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647653153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220777059?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: The Three-Headed Monster","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220777059","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryGarena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but B","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Garena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but Bookings are expected to fall sharply in FY2022.</li><li>In addition, Shopee&#39;s losses are widening. However, the e-commerce segment is expected to be self-funded by 2025. This is achievable as take rates are trending in the right direction.</li><li>SeaMoney is also gaining traction at an unprecedented pace, a monster lurking in the shadows. Investors should pay attention as this segment could serve as Sea&#39;s second cash cow.</li><li>With a net cash position of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won&#39;t be long before Sea requires another cash infusion.</li><li>Despite unprofitability risks, Sea has a strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats. The stock is trading at the lowest multiple ever - it is worth a nibble at these prices.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b3290f2015840c5d8f754c01de8a85\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>undefined undefined/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I&#39;ve been following Sea Limited ADR (NYSE:SE) for quite some time now and the stock got me interested again given the recent 75% selloff. Today, I&#39;m doing a deep dive on the three-headed monster (and each of its heads) to see if the company is a good investment opportunity at these levels. Let&#39;s get started!</p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Sea is at the forefront of the internet revolution in developing regions. This had many investors buying into the growth story of the company, sending shares soaring high into the sun for the better part of 2020 and 2021. However, the stock has cratered back to sea amid concerns about the company&#39;s slowing growth, especially for its only cash cow, Garena. To make matters worse, Shopee&#39;s losses are also getting worse.</p><p>The Group&#39;s cash burn rate is still high, estimated to be $(3.6) billion in FY2022. With a net cash position of $5.9 billion, future capital raises are very likely.</p><p>On the bright side, Sea still has a long growth runway ahead, solidified by its leadership positions in Southeast Asia and Latin America. SeaMoney, although still unprofitable, could also emerge as Sea&#39;s second cash cow.</p><p>Despite unprofitability and competitive risks, Sea has strong competitive moats and it is trading at the cheapest valuation multiples since its IPO.</p><p>The three-headed monster is a Buy at these levels.</p><p><b>Value Proposition</b></p><p>Founded in Singapore in 2009, Sea has grown to become the leading consumer internet company in the world, with a substantial presence in the Southeast Asian region.</p><blockquote><b>Mission</b>: To better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology.</blockquote><p>Sea is a holding company for three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney. Sea&#39;s main value proposition is providing a vertically-integrated experience through its different core businesses.</p><p><b>Garena</b></p><p>Its digital entertainment division, Garena, was Sea&#39;s first business venture. In fact, Sea was originally named Garena Interactive Holding Limited before changing its name to Sea Limited in 2017.</p><p>Garena is one of the largest online games developers and publishers, releasing some of the most successful mobile and PC games over the last decade. For example, Garena&#39;s Free Fire, its self-developed mobile battle royale game, topped the global download charts for the last three years. According to data.ai, Free Fire also ranked second globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in 2021. In Southeast Asia and Latin America, Free Fire was the highest-grossing mobile game for ten consecutive quarters, and in the US for four consecutive quarters. Based on Sensor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>&#39;s findings, Free Fire still holds the most downloads globally as of January 2022.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa392753c19f14d60ee0d992e58c3d2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SensorTower</span></p><p>Garena also exclusively licenses and publishes games from global partners and third-party developers. Some of these partners include Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Activision (ATVI), and Arumgames. Games like Speed Drifters, Arena of Valor, and Fantasy Town fall into this category as they are co-developed with partners or licensed from partners.</p><p>In addition, Garena organizes some of the largest e-sports events from local tournaments to professional competitions at a global level. Moreover, Garena offers other entertainment content such as live-streaming, user chat, and online forums.</p><p><b>Shopee</b></p><p>Perhaps the most exciting business segment is Sea&#39;s mobile-centric e-commerce platform, Shopee. Launched in 2015, Shopee is now one of the fastest-growing e-commerce marketplaces with a strong presence in Southeast Asia, as well as growing recognition in Latin America and some European countries.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6649de846b2942b928a3f3e5d4035003\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Shopee</span></p><p>Through the Shopee platform, buyers can purchase items from sellers which are primarily small and medium businesses (or mom-and-pop stores). At the same time, larger, more established retailers like Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF), Microsoft (MSFT), or Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) can leverage Shopee&#39;s two premium shopping platforms, Shopee Mall and Shopee Premium.</p><p>Along with Shopee&#39;s e-commerce marketplace, Shopee also offers adjacent products and services for both buyers and sellers:</p><ul><li><b>Service by Shopee</b> - Value-added services for sellers such as integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, seller support, inventory management, and online store operations.</li><li><b>BuyerProtection</b> - Consumer protection policies and procedures including seller verification, product listing screening, and dispute resolution. In addition, Shopee Guarantee reduces settlement risks by holding customers&#39; funds in a separate account until delivery is complete, where funds will be released to buyers.</li><li><b>Integrated Logistics Services</b>- Shopee partners with various local and regional third-party logistics service providers to provide a seamless last-mile delivery experience for both buyers and sellers. Shopee also has its own delivery service called Shopee Xpress.</li><li><b>Social Features</b> - Shopee also offers other social and gamification features, including Shopee Coins (virtual currency), Shopee Live (livestream), Shopee Games (in-app games), and Shopee Feed (similar to Instagram).</li><li><b>On-demand Services</b>- Shopee also recently launched on-demand services such as ShopeeFood, instant delivery, and groceries, competing directly with Grab (GRAB), Gojek, and Uber (UBER).</li></ul><p>Shopee&#39;s scale is unmatched and it is still growing at an unprecedented pace. According to data.ai, Shopee in Southeast Asia and Taiwan ranked first in average monthly active users and total time spent in the app in 2021. Shopee Indonesia, arguably Shopee&#39;s most important market, ranked first in the Shopping category. Shopee Brazil, which launched in October 2019, was also ranked first in the Shopping category. And globally, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category, and is the #13 most downloaded app regardless of category, logging in 200+ million downloads in 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9c550b140720336e00cc78e954d184\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SensorTower</span></p><p><b>SeaMoney</b></p><p>SeaMoney was launched in 2014 and is now one of the leading digital financial services providers in Sea&#39;s operating countries. SeaMoney offers mobile wallet services, payment processing, credit, and other digital financial services. These services are offered under SeaMoney&#39;s various brands including AirPay, ShopeePay, SPayLater, and other local brands depending on the country. SeaMoney was initially launched in Vietnam and Thailand but has since expanded to other regions.</p><p>Through SeaMoney&#39;s mobile wallet offerings, consumers and merchants have added flexibility in terms of payment options, whether through online or offline means. The launch of SPayLater, which is basically a &#34;buy now pay later&#34; payment option, enables consumers to purchase items without accessing credit. For those who are interested, I&#39;ve written a deep dive on Affirm (AFRM) where I discuss the main value propositions that BNPL provides.</p><p>SeaMoney has obtained bank licenses and government approvals to provide financial services in various countries. For example, Sea acquired Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi in Indonesia back in early 2021 as a push towards offering a digital banking solution. The company is now rebranded to SeaBank, which currently offers a high-yield savings account and virtual account.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c85c862195f86fe9d4f0f8c8beced6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SeaBank Website</span></p><p>SeaMoney&#39;s main value proposition lies in offering a mobile wallet and payment solutions that are integrated with Sea&#39;s other businesses, namely Garena and Shopee, enabling consumers and merchants to transact seamlessly in one vertically-integrated platform.</p><p><b>Market Opportunity</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s market opportunity is predicated around the industry outlook of each of its business segments: mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. Let&#39;s take a look at each industry that Sea operates in.</p><p>First, we have the mobile gaming industry. According to data.ai, Mobile Game Consumer Spend grew from $74 billion in 2018 to $116 billion in 2021, while Mobile Game Downloads grew from 63 billion in 2018 to 83 billion in 2021. Among the Top Genres by Downloads were Hypercasual games such as Hair Challenge and Water Sort Puzzle. However, the Top Genres by Consumer Spend belong to the Strategy, RPG, and Shooting categories where Garena specializes in. For example, Free Fire was the top Shooting game by revenue in Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, and the US, in 2021. Globally, however, it is still behind PUBG Mobile, which generates the bulk of its revenue from China.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72bda6df6bc2b7bdf8756d218f53185\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SensorTower</span></p><p>According to Adjust, the mobile gaming industry is expected to reach $272 billion by 2030, which is about 1.5x of 2021&#39;s total figure. Given Garena&#39;s successes in monetizing its games, Garena should continue to enjoy gaming tailwinds in the foreseeable future, provided that its games remain in trend. This is also supported by Unity&#39;s findings that the APAC region is the fastest-growing regional market, a market that Garena dominates in.</p><p>Moving on to e-commerce, we all know that e-commerce is growing rapidly and that its market share as a whole will continue to trend up from here. This is especially true for the Southeast Asian region where internet and smartphone adoption continues to increase by the day. Based on the e-Conomy SEA report, Southeast Asia now has 440 million internet users, up from 360 million in 2019. Its total population is about 589 million.</p><p>Internet Gross Merchandise Value, or GMV, for the region was $170 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $360 billion by 2025 with e-commerce leading the charge. The shift to e-commerce is not only happening on the consumer side but also on the merchant side. Digital marketing tools, analytical tools, and digital payment solutions have accelerated business for merchants. Shopee&#39;s vertically-integrated platform also makes it easy for merchants in these developing countries to set up shop, distribute goods, and accept payments in a single platform.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fcb903aed7c0ec901fc83c4f25f18b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021</span></p><p>Furthermore, Sea has recently expanded its e-commerce operations to other regions such as Latin America and Europe, which further expands its market opportunity.</p><p>Lastly, we have the fintech industry pertaining to SeaMoney. In my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> (PYPL) deep dive, I discussed the growth of mobile wallets as a payment method in both online and offline transactions. The shift to a cashless and cardless society is inevitable and that is also true for Sea&#39;s markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ec896a6208b6023ae89f654704bbc7\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Ark Invest Big Ideas 2022</span></p><p>As you can see below, mobile wallets continue to gain traction in Southeast Asia. In addition, 92% of digital merchants intend to maintain usage or increase usage of digital payments in the next 1 to 2 years. ShopeePay and SeaMoney&#39;s other brands will benefit from this trend. Also of important note, SeaMoney&#39;s expansion to buy now pay later with SPayLater will be a key GMV and revenue driver for the segment. These are the reasons why some investors are so bullish on SeaMoney and why SeaMoney is a monster lurking in the shadows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb814b800c3121e3fb8cd0913f239d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021</span></p><p>As you can see, Sea is at the forefront of three megatrends which should propel the business forward from here. Also, combining the different verticals in the same platform would present a significant synergistic opportunity as Sea establishes itself as a SuperApp in the making.</p><p><b>Revenue Model</b></p><p>As mentioned previously, Sea operates three main business segments.</p><p><b>Digital Entertainment</b></p><p>Garena operates a freemium model whereby users can download and play games for free. The company generates revenue by selling in-game virtual items such as clothing, weaponry, or equipment.</p><p>Investors should take note of how revenue is recognized for this segment. According to Sea&#39;s 10-K:</p><blockquote>Proceeds from these sales are initially recognized as “Advances from customers” and subsequently reclassified to “Deferred revenue” when the users make in-game purchases of the virtual currencies or virtual items within the games operated by the Company and the in-game purchases are no longer refundable.</blockquote><p>Garena also licenses games from other game developers. Revenue is generated based on revenue-sharing/royalty agreements with these developers. Revenue is recognized over the performance obligation period.</p><blockquote>Such delivery obligation period is determined in accordance with the estimated average lifespan of the virtual goods sold or estimated average lifespan of the paying users of the said games or similar games.</blockquote><p><b>E-commerce</b></p><p>Shopee generates revenue through a marketplace model. Sellers on the platform pay Shopee based on paid advertisement services, transaction-based fees, logistics services, and other value-added services.</p><p>Shopee also generates revenue from goods sold directly by Shopee, which the company purchases in bulk from manufacturers or third-party suppliers.</p><p><b>Digital Financial Services</b></p><p>SeaMoney revenue consists of:</p><ul><li>Interest and fees from loans granted to commercial customers</li><li>Interest and fees from Sea&#39;s consumer credit business such as SPayLater</li><li>Commissions charged to merchants when a customer pays using SeaMoney&#39;s mobile wallet</li></ul><p><b>Income Statement</b></p><p>Let&#39;s analyze each of the business segments and then look at the entire Group as a whole.</p><p><b>Digital Entertainment</b></p><p>Garena Revenue saw a 104% increase YoY in Q4. For the full year, Garena Revenue was up 114% YoY.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/998dfbcf3f3dba11b8f8722710c36ba4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The rapid increase in Revenue was primarily due to recognition of accumulated deferred revenue from previous quarters. Bookings—which is essentially GAAP Revenue plus the change in digital entertainment deferred revenue —actually dropped for the first time QoQ and it is now lower than Revenue. This means that gamers are spending less on in-virtual items which will lead to lower Revenue recognized in subsequent quarters. As you can see, Bookings is in a massive deceleration.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06de5e6066b66cd5596a445cd912c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The drop in Bookings was due to fewer gamers in the platform as the economy reopens and people spend more time outdoors, at school, or in the office. Quarterly Active Users, or QAUs, grew only 7% in Q4 to 652 million, compared to Q3&#39;s QAUs of 729 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5bdd570a9eb859a9fef8569c9fad10a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>As a result, Quarterly Paying Users, or QPUs, decelerated as well, which led to lower Bookings. Q4 QPUs was 77 million compared to Q3&#39;s 93 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092c4a2f47b9336f2753b4548707b39f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The markets reacted negatively to this slowdown in Garena growth as the gaming business acts as the lifeline for Sea&#39;s two other segments. As you can see, Garena is a high-margin business, producing Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion in FY2021. Operating Margin is very high at 61% in Q4. AEBITDA margin, on the other hand, is trending downwards as QoQ adds in Bookings wither.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f28c9f35ee55afb5c7d170a80d26ebf2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>As such, the slowdown in growth for Garena is scaring investors away as it may not provide sufficient cash flow to fund the continued growth of Shopee and SeaMoney.</p><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>Shopee GMV continues its upward march as e-commerce continues to gain traction in Shopee&#39;s existing and newer markets. However, we&#39;re also seeing a deceleration in growth due to tough YoY comps. GMV in FY2021 was $62.5 billion, an increase of 77%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f657f7cacc9e00bc57df0e913fdb9ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>GMV growth was also due to an increase in Orders in the Shopee platform, which totaled 6.1 billion in FY2021, an increase of 117%. Average Order Value, or AOV, however, is trending downwards. This may be perceived negatively as processing more lower-AOV orders meant higher logistical expenses and thus lower margins per order.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fbc7f044de03ec379f262a5bfcdf331\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The increase in GMV translated to higher Shopee Revenue, which grew faster than GMV. Shopee Revenue grew 136% to $5.1 billion in FY2021, as compared to GMV growth of 77%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27710dc2140a6d139900819f51bd688a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The faster growth in Revenue was due to Shopee&#39;s increasing take rate, which displays Shopee&#39;s ability to monetize its marketplace platform. This is one of the only few positive developments coming out of the most recent earnings update.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4267bc5d33a2153e8624f73ed71540\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Despite the improving Revenue and take rate, Shopee is still suffering huge losses and it is mounting with each subsequent quarter, primarily due to the company expanding into new markets. FY2021 Shopee AEBITDA was $(2.6) billion at a -50% margin. Recall that Garena AEBITDA was $2.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d27cef61bc9a9058233f7eccc5eaa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>AEBITDA per Order has been improving, although it flat-lined in the last few quarters. Again, this is due to the company aggressively expanding into new markets. For example, in Q4, Shopee Brazil recorded 140+ million gross orders with a $70+ million Revenue, up 400% and 326%, respectively. However, AEBITDA per Order in Brazil is still negative at $(2) per Order, despite being a 40% improvement from last year. As such, it is still a far cry from the overall AEBITDA per Order of $(0.45).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0d6aa930a81ea4fc153b7134dbf9d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>On the bright side, in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, Q4 AEBITDA per Order before &#34;allocation of the headquarters’ common expenses&#34; was $(0.15), an improvement from last year&#39;s $(0.21). This shows that there is certainly hope for Shopee to be AEBITDA positive soon, which management has pointed out during the Q4 earnings call:</p><blockquote>We currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before HQ cost allocation in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year. We also expect SeaMoney to achieve positive cash flow by next year. As a result, we currently expect that by 2025 cash generated by Shopee and SeaMoney proactively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.</blockquote><p><b>Digital Financial Services</b></p><p>SeaMoney&#39;s Mobile Wallet Total Payment Volume grew 120% YoY to $17.2 billion in FY2021 due to the increasing adoption of mobile wallets in the region.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fa5ef6efa513d9040963fda42b4b9f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The growth in TPV was largely driven by the growth in QAUs. As shown below, the total ending QAUs in Q4 grew 90% YoY to 45.8 million users.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9397aec066366f40ec92c24187347a44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The real exciting part is that Revenue grew much faster than TPV and QAUs. SeaMoney Revenue is growing at a blistering pace, locking in high triple-digit growth rates over the last few years. FY2021 SeaMoney Revenue was $470 million, which is an increase of 673% from the previous year. This is due to take rates increasing from less than 1% in FY2020 to almost 4% by the end of the latest quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcaf6046cf3c27e00b233a8428eb2d75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Furthermore, in Indonesia, over 20% of the QAUs have used more than one SeaMoney product or service, which includes credit services, digital banking, and insurance. As SeaMoney introduces more offerings, revenue should accelerate meaningfully as average revenue per user increases when people use additional products.</p><p>As SeaMoney continues to gain scale, the segment will enjoy better unit economics. As shown below, while SeaMoney&#39;s AEBITDA is still in deeply negative territories, AEBITDA Margins has continued to trend towards profitability. Management also expects SeaMoney to be cash flow positive by next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f0d5a1800fef748694417e8cb8fc9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>This is the segment that investors should pay special attention to, given that it has the potential to be Sea&#39;s second cash cow. For example, PayPal has Operating Margins of 20%+, which could be SeaMoney&#39;s long-term margin profile.</p><p><b>Group</b></p><p>With that said, let&#39;s take a look at how the business is doing as a whole.</p><p>FY2021 Revenue was $10.0 billion, an increase of 128% YoY. Due to the law of large numbers and tough YoY comps, Revenue growth should decelerate from here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38de60bd773f3ef7afc4b2e28aa1c08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Here, we can see how Revenue is distributed across the different segments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a86e59478db8a3a4fdc85897f24410e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>What&#39;s encouraging is that Gross Profit Margins continue to trend upwards as the company gains economies of scale, even accounting for Shopee&#39;s aggressive expansion into new markets. FY2021 Gross Profit was $3.9 billion, up 189% YoY.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd978ba4047cc6e20ac6086ba8420a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Operating Expenses, however, remain elevated as management forgoes short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. FY2021 Total Operating Expenses were $5.5 billion. Below shows the different components of Operating Expenses as a percentage of Revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbdbde2c2ae744f36f8168ed32f94d62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Most of the Operating Expenses were used for Sales &amp; Marketing purposes. Unsurprisingly, Shopee had the highest S&amp;M burn rate. Discounts, cashback, celebrity promotions... they&#39;re everywhere.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5253f186120da17c4cd901e5c442bd1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>As a result, Operating Profit Margins is still negative, although it is trending in the right direction.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a27b7833551107397c44acefc5ad2475\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>AEBITDA, on the other hand, is plunging. This is due to Garena&#39;s falling Bookings and Shoppe&#39;s widening losses. AEBITDA for FY2021 was $(594) million, compared to FY2020 positive AEBITDA of $107 million. This is probably the most concerning figure for investors as such a high cash burn rate is unsustainable, which may also lead to additional capital raises that are dilutive to shareholders.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89fb95f74e23e85f8932870c0190bee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The guidance did not help either. Garena Bookings is expected to fall to just $3 billion, which is $1.3 billion lower than FY2021&#39;s number. Management blamed the reopening of the economy as well as the ban of Free Fire in India for the expected drop in Bookings. Assuming a modest 50% AEBITDA margin, Garena would bring in just $1.5 billion of AEBITDA for Sea in FY2022.</p><p>On the other side, the other two segments are expected to continue with their immense pace of growth — Shopee and SeaMoney are expected to grow by 76% and 155%, respectively. If we assume a (50)% AEBITDA margin for both segments, Shopee and SeaMoney is expected to burn a total of about $(5.1) billion of AEBITDA. Adding Garena&#39;s estimated AEBITDA of $1.5 billion, Sea, as a Group, is expected to burn $(3.6) billion in FY2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae5e9399a838e5f841dcccaffbe673d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>Because Garena is such an important piece of Shopee&#39;s and SeaMoney&#39;s growth story, a deceleration in Garena&#39;s business had investors reacting so negatively to Sea&#39;s latest earnings release, as now, the gaming business is incapable of covering the massive losses incurred by the other two business segments.</p><p><b>Balance Sheet</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s balance sheet position as of year-end FY2021 is at about $10.2 billion of Cash and Short Term Investments. While this may show that Sea has a substantial cushion against its short-term cash burn rate, its net cash position paints a different picture.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc30ee494abc2eda3b75434b96e4a66b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>Adjusting for Sea&#39;s debt, Sea ended the year with a net cash position of around $5.9 billion. A substantial amount of its total debt comes from its recent issuance of 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. The notes were issued when the stock was trading at $318 per share back in September and the initial conversion price is set at $477 per share. So, yes... conversion in the next 2 to 3 years is very unlikely.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3d0030e6518cc4198245f624cc75e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>With net cash of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won&#39;t be long before Sea requires another cash infusion. Therefore, if the high cash burn rate persists for the next 2 to 3 years, investors face a major risk of increasing financial leverage and/or dilution in the form of equity raises.</p><p><b>Cash Flow Statement</b></p><p>Here is what cash flow looks like over the last few quarters. Notice how Operating Cash Flow turned negative in the last quarter. Most of the cash also comes from Financing activities.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0aba061277a1410bb9f3dc176ea0115\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Unlike other high-flying growth companies, Sea&#39;s Share-Based Compensation expenses are relatively low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fa229682c8880d6edd35535ef6a747\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p><b>Competitive Moats</b></p><p>Based on my research and analysis, I identified three key competitive moats for Sea: brand, network effects, and barriers to entry. I used to think that Sea has cost advantages but as Garena becomes a smaller part of the overall business, and as losses continue to worsen, I have reason to believe that Sea no longer holds that moat.</p><p><b>Brand</b></p><p>As discussed in previous sections, Garena&#39;s games, particularly Free Fire, have consistently ranked as the most downloaded mobile game in the world. Additionally, the Shopee app has gained cross-border stardom and is now regarded as the most downloaded or fastest-trending shopping App in the countries it operates in. Lastly, SeaMoney is also gaining traction with banking licenses granted in various countries that should increase brand value and trust.</p><p><b>Network Effects</b></p><p>The sheer amount of app downloads leads to powerful network effects. Garena has 652 million QAUs, which is about 8% of the world&#39;s population. Shopee recorded 200+ million app downloads in FY2021 alone. SeaMoney QAUs topped 45.8 million in Q4 and it is still in the early stages of adoption.</p><p>With all these users in the Sea platform, cross-selling new products or services should be easier as Sea continues to scale. One such example is Shopee Brazil and Free Fire where each platform is encouraging consumers to use the other. As Sea continues to innovate and offer better experiences for its customers, the ecosystem gets bigger and tighter, leading to powerful network effects.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c641ac08707cc868b9e6004e2deaf950\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Shopee Brazil</span></p><p><b>Barriers To Entry</b></p><p>I believe each of Sea&#39;s core businesses is operating in a winner-takes-most environment with high barriers to entry.</p><p>The mobile gaming environment requires the most talented developers to launch blockbuster games. Garena&#39;s Free Fire is certainly a blockbuster game and time in Free Fire&#39;s game means time away from other mobile games.</p><p>Just like how Amazon (AMZN) dominates in the US, the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia and Latin America is dominated by a few players, such as Shopee, Tokopedia, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a> (MELI). The scale and unit economics that these players have achieved makes it unsustainable for new entrants to compete with them.</p><p>Banking and fintech is also a highly-regulated environment. Furthermore, consumers prefer to have just one mobile wallet, such as ShopeePay, as opposed to owning several different fintech applications.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Based on my sum-of-the-parts and comparable company valuation analysis, Sea looks to be slightly undervalued with 19% upside potential. Of course, comparables are not perfect but based on this, we can gauge where Sea stands among peers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2400cd917e5f6ce8c47ef74a8062093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>On the flip side, Sea looks extremely cheap on a historical basis. In terms of EV/Sales, Sea is trading at the lowest valuation since its IPO, trading at just 4.2x forward sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed1fd805a89523bbb8fa982bee40079\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p>In terms of EV/Gross Profit, Sea is trading even cheaper than its March 2020 lows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf589a808c84131e9c36aa7b65a5129\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p>The valuation compression is warranted given that the company flew too close to the sun and now it is cratering back to the sea — not just for Sea, but almost all growth stocks took a beating. Growth is also slowing down and the macroeconomic environment looks gloomier than ever. However, this is not the end of the world; I think the markets are overreacting. Diversion from the mean goes both ways — perhaps, current prices present a good margin of safety for long-term investors.</p><p><b>Catalysts</b></p><ul><li><b>Successful International Expansion</b> — Shopee has been successful in replicating its playbook from Southeast Asia to Brazil. Recently, Shopee launched operations in India, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Poland, and Spain. If Shopee can take substantial market share in these new regions, Shopee&#39;s growth could turn exponential.</li><li><b>The Metaverse</b> — Sea&#39;s withering gaming division needs to be revitalized. New games and features could definitely provide the boost that it needs. For example, the metaverse is an exciting opportunity and Garena could introduce this concept to its 600+ million QAUs. Sea AI Lab (SAIL) and Sea Capital are two ventures that could accelerate the company into emerging industries, including the metaverse.</li></ul><blockquote>We will continue to encourage user-generated content by enhancing greater features and accessibility. We believe that a strong user reception to Craftland is a positive indicator of the initial success to encourage user participation in content creation and to build Free Fire into an increasingly open platform and is well aligned with major emerging industry trends such as metaverse.</blockquote><ul><li><b>Regional SuperApp</b> — Although this concept has yet to be discussed by management, launching a regional SuperApp could enhance user engagement to new levels. For example, imagine Shopee users being able to play games, shop, order food delivery, pay for services, transfer money, invest, all under one app. Imagine users being able to convert their deposited funds in ShopeePay, into ShopeeCoins, and use it to perform cross-border transactions.</li><li><b>Continued Growth In SeaMoney</b> — SeaMoney is still in its early stages and continued adoption of Sea&#39;s digital financial services offerings will be a strong addition to Sea&#39;s bull thesis. SPayLater has real potential to disrupt the consumer credit industry. SeaBank and ShopeePay have the opportunity to capture digital wallet, digital banking, and cashless society trends.</li><li><b>Free Fire India Ban Lift</b>— Garena&#39;s weak guidance factored in the headwinds coming from the ban in India. If the ban is lifted, the stock may react positively as much of Sea&#39;s cash burn problems may be eliminated.</li></ul><p><b>Risks</b></p><ul><li><b>The Pressure to Launch Blockbuster Games</b>— There will come a time when Free Fire will be dethroned as the most-played and most-downloaded game. That is just how the gaming business works. This puts a substantial risk on the cash flow generation potential of Garena. Launching blockbuster games is never easy and it requires many trials and errors along the way. For me, I would like to see Garena shift to a gaming franchise model where the company launches an updated version of an existing game every year or two, which presents a more stable and recurring revenue stream for the company. An example would be FIFA or Call of Duty.</li><li><b>Shopee India Ban</b> — With Free Fire banned in India, there&#39;s also the potential for Shoppe to be banned as well.</li><li><b>Failure to Gain Traction in International Markets</b>— Shopee pulled out of France in early March, an indication that Shoppe&#39;s business model is not replicable in other countries, especially in more developed regions. Shopee Poland and Spain may be next on the exit list as they hold a close resemblance to France.</li><li><b>Geopolitical Risks</b>— Tencent, a Chinese company, has an 18.7% equity stake in Sea. Sanctions, bans, and other restrictions on Chinese companies, given the current geopolitical environment, could spell trouble for Sea. Tencent may have to cut exposure on Sea or even dissolve its developing-publishing partnership with Garena.</li><li><b>Local Competition</b>— Local champions operating in their respective markets cannot be ignored. These include GoTo in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and Flipkart in India.</li></ul><p>In addition, there&#39;s a certain level of pride for consumers to see their native-born companies succeed. I&#39;m Indonesian, and it makes me really happy to see GoTo grow and grow.</p><p>GoTo, the holding company of both Indonesian tech darlings Gojek and Tokopedia, recently announced its plan to IPO in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Here&#39;s a glance of GoTo&#39;s stats for the 12-months ended 30 September 2021:</p><ul><li>Valuation: $26.2 billion to $28.8 billion</li><li>GMV: $28.8 billion</li><li>Revenue: $1 billion</li><li>Gross Orders: 2 billion</li><li>Annual Transacting Users: 55 million</li><li>Driver Partners: 2.5 million</li><li>Merchants: 14 million</li></ul><p>The point is that there are big-time local players operating in Sea&#39;s markets that investors should never ignore. Here&#39;s a little snippet from my previous Shopee article:</p><blockquote>But with the GoTo merger, Indonesia could potentially extinguish the orange flame that charred its forest for many years. Now, GoTo could finally reclaim a good chunk of its territory that was lost to waves of competition, especially from Shopee. GoTo could finally gain more ground as the roots grew even stronger with the merger, fertilized with the synergies of value propositions, logistics, payments, and banking solutions.</blockquote><blockquote>Meanwhile, Sea Limited&#39;s stock continues to soar, ignoring the titan of an elephant in the room. And because of GoTo&#39;s integration, Shopee&#39;s vertically-integrated business model doesn&#39;t look like a strong competitive advantage anymore.</blockquote><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Each of Sea&#39;s core businesses is in hypergrowth mode, propelled by megatrends in the mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech industry. Management understands these opportunities and therefore, is sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. Despite being a larger business, Sea still has a massive growth runway ahead.</p><p>That is not to say that unprofitability and competition risks can and should be ignored. The biggest concern for investors is the company&#39;s unsustainable cash burn rate, which will likely lead to further capital raises in the near future.</p><p>Nonetheless, the long-term growth thesis for the three-headed monster remains intact. Strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats should support the business going forward. In addition, shares of Sea are trading at the lowest valuation multiples ever, which presents a good margin of safety for an entry at these prices.</p><p>Thank you for reading my Sea Limited deep dive. If you enjoyed the article, please let me know in the comment section down below. If you have any suggestions or feedback, don&#39;t hesitate to share your thoughts as well.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: The Three-Headed Monster</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: The Three-Headed Monster\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-19 09:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496480-sea-limited-the-three-headed-monster><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryGarena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but Bookings are expected to fall sharply in FY2022.In addition, Shopee's losses are widening. However, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496480-sea-limited-the-three-headed-monster\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496480-sea-limited-the-three-headed-monster","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2220777059","content_text":"SummaryGarena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but Bookings are expected to fall sharply in FY2022.In addition, Shopee's losses are widening. However, the e-commerce segment is expected to be self-funded by 2025. This is achievable as take rates are trending in the right direction.SeaMoney is also gaining traction at an unprecedented pace, a monster lurking in the shadows. Investors should pay attention as this segment could serve as Sea's second cash cow.With a net cash position of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won't be long before Sea requires another cash infusion.Despite unprofitability risks, Sea has a strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats. The stock is trading at the lowest multiple ever - it is worth a nibble at these prices.undefined undefined/iStock via Getty ImagesI've been following Sea Limited ADR (NYSE:SE) for quite some time now and the stock got me interested again given the recent 75% selloff. Today, I'm doing a deep dive on the three-headed monster (and each of its heads) to see if the company is a good investment opportunity at these levels. Let's get started!Investment ThesisSea is at the forefront of the internet revolution in developing regions. This had many investors buying into the growth story of the company, sending shares soaring high into the sun for the better part of 2020 and 2021. However, the stock has cratered back to sea amid concerns about the company's slowing growth, especially for its only cash cow, Garena. To make matters worse, Shopee's losses are also getting worse.The Group's cash burn rate is still high, estimated to be $(3.6) billion in FY2022. With a net cash position of $5.9 billion, future capital raises are very likely.On the bright side, Sea still has a long growth runway ahead, solidified by its leadership positions in Southeast Asia and Latin America. SeaMoney, although still unprofitable, could also emerge as Sea's second cash cow.Despite unprofitability and competitive risks, Sea has strong competitive moats and it is trading at the cheapest valuation multiples since its IPO.The three-headed monster is a Buy at these levels.Value PropositionFounded in Singapore in 2009, Sea has grown to become the leading consumer internet company in the world, with a substantial presence in the Southeast Asian region.Mission: To better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology.Sea is a holding company for three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney. Sea's main value proposition is providing a vertically-integrated experience through its different core businesses.GarenaIts digital entertainment division, Garena, was Sea's first business venture. In fact, Sea was originally named Garena Interactive Holding Limited before changing its name to Sea Limited in 2017.Garena is one of the largest online games developers and publishers, releasing some of the most successful mobile and PC games over the last decade. For example, Garena's Free Fire, its self-developed mobile battle royale game, topped the global download charts for the last three years. According to data.ai, Free Fire also ranked second globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in 2021. In Southeast Asia and Latin America, Free Fire was the highest-grossing mobile game for ten consecutive quarters, and in the US for four consecutive quarters. Based on Sensor Tower's findings, Free Fire still holds the most downloads globally as of January 2022.Source: SensorTowerGarena also exclusively licenses and publishes games from global partners and third-party developers. Some of these partners include Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Activision (ATVI), and Arumgames. Games like Speed Drifters, Arena of Valor, and Fantasy Town fall into this category as they are co-developed with partners or licensed from partners.In addition, Garena organizes some of the largest e-sports events from local tournaments to professional competitions at a global level. Moreover, Garena offers other entertainment content such as live-streaming, user chat, and online forums.ShopeePerhaps the most exciting business segment is Sea's mobile-centric e-commerce platform, Shopee. Launched in 2015, Shopee is now one of the fastest-growing e-commerce marketplaces with a strong presence in Southeast Asia, as well as growing recognition in Latin America and some European countries.Source: ShopeeThrough the Shopee platform, buyers can purchase items from sellers which are primarily small and medium businesses (or mom-and-pop stores). At the same time, larger, more established retailers like Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF), Microsoft (MSFT), or Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) can leverage Shopee's two premium shopping platforms, Shopee Mall and Shopee Premium.Along with Shopee's e-commerce marketplace, Shopee also offers adjacent products and services for both buyers and sellers:Service by Shopee - Value-added services for sellers such as integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, seller support, inventory management, and online store operations.BuyerProtection - Consumer protection policies and procedures including seller verification, product listing screening, and dispute resolution. In addition, Shopee Guarantee reduces settlement risks by holding customers' funds in a separate account until delivery is complete, where funds will be released to buyers.Integrated Logistics Services- Shopee partners with various local and regional third-party logistics service providers to provide a seamless last-mile delivery experience for both buyers and sellers. Shopee also has its own delivery service called Shopee Xpress.Social Features - Shopee also offers other social and gamification features, including Shopee Coins (virtual currency), Shopee Live (livestream), Shopee Games (in-app games), and Shopee Feed (similar to Instagram).On-demand Services- Shopee also recently launched on-demand services such as ShopeeFood, instant delivery, and groceries, competing directly with Grab (GRAB), Gojek, and Uber (UBER).Shopee's scale is unmatched and it is still growing at an unprecedented pace. According to data.ai, Shopee in Southeast Asia and Taiwan ranked first in average monthly active users and total time spent in the app in 2021. Shopee Indonesia, arguably Shopee's most important market, ranked first in the Shopping category. Shopee Brazil, which launched in October 2019, was also ranked first in the Shopping category. And globally, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category, and is the #13 most downloaded app regardless of category, logging in 200+ million downloads in 2021.Source: SensorTowerSeaMoneySeaMoney was launched in 2014 and is now one of the leading digital financial services providers in Sea's operating countries. SeaMoney offers mobile wallet services, payment processing, credit, and other digital financial services. These services are offered under SeaMoney's various brands including AirPay, ShopeePay, SPayLater, and other local brands depending on the country. SeaMoney was initially launched in Vietnam and Thailand but has since expanded to other regions.Through SeaMoney's mobile wallet offerings, consumers and merchants have added flexibility in terms of payment options, whether through online or offline means. The launch of SPayLater, which is basically a \"buy now pay later\" payment option, enables consumers to purchase items without accessing credit. For those who are interested, I've written a deep dive on Affirm (AFRM) where I discuss the main value propositions that BNPL provides.SeaMoney has obtained bank licenses and government approvals to provide financial services in various countries. For example, Sea acquired Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi in Indonesia back in early 2021 as a push towards offering a digital banking solution. The company is now rebranded to SeaBank, which currently offers a high-yield savings account and virtual account.Source: SeaBank WebsiteSeaMoney's main value proposition lies in offering a mobile wallet and payment solutions that are integrated with Sea's other businesses, namely Garena and Shopee, enabling consumers and merchants to transact seamlessly in one vertically-integrated platform.Market OpportunitySea's market opportunity is predicated around the industry outlook of each of its business segments: mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. Let's take a look at each industry that Sea operates in.First, we have the mobile gaming industry. According to data.ai, Mobile Game Consumer Spend grew from $74 billion in 2018 to $116 billion in 2021, while Mobile Game Downloads grew from 63 billion in 2018 to 83 billion in 2021. Among the Top Genres by Downloads were Hypercasual games such as Hair Challenge and Water Sort Puzzle. However, the Top Genres by Consumer Spend belong to the Strategy, RPG, and Shooting categories where Garena specializes in. For example, Free Fire was the top Shooting game by revenue in Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, and the US, in 2021. Globally, however, it is still behind PUBG Mobile, which generates the bulk of its revenue from China.Source: SensorTowerAccording to Adjust, the mobile gaming industry is expected to reach $272 billion by 2030, which is about 1.5x of 2021's total figure. Given Garena's successes in monetizing its games, Garena should continue to enjoy gaming tailwinds in the foreseeable future, provided that its games remain in trend. This is also supported by Unity's findings that the APAC region is the fastest-growing regional market, a market that Garena dominates in.Moving on to e-commerce, we all know that e-commerce is growing rapidly and that its market share as a whole will continue to trend up from here. This is especially true for the Southeast Asian region where internet and smartphone adoption continues to increase by the day. Based on the e-Conomy SEA report, Southeast Asia now has 440 million internet users, up from 360 million in 2019. Its total population is about 589 million.Internet Gross Merchandise Value, or GMV, for the region was $170 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $360 billion by 2025 with e-commerce leading the charge. The shift to e-commerce is not only happening on the consumer side but also on the merchant side. Digital marketing tools, analytical tools, and digital payment solutions have accelerated business for merchants. Shopee's vertically-integrated platform also makes it easy for merchants in these developing countries to set up shop, distribute goods, and accept payments in a single platform.Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021Furthermore, Sea has recently expanded its e-commerce operations to other regions such as Latin America and Europe, which further expands its market opportunity.Lastly, we have the fintech industry pertaining to SeaMoney. In my PayPal (PYPL) deep dive, I discussed the growth of mobile wallets as a payment method in both online and offline transactions. The shift to a cashless and cardless society is inevitable and that is also true for Sea's markets.Source: Ark Invest Big Ideas 2022As you can see below, mobile wallets continue to gain traction in Southeast Asia. In addition, 92% of digital merchants intend to maintain usage or increase usage of digital payments in the next 1 to 2 years. ShopeePay and SeaMoney's other brands will benefit from this trend. Also of important note, SeaMoney's expansion to buy now pay later with SPayLater will be a key GMV and revenue driver for the segment. These are the reasons why some investors are so bullish on SeaMoney and why SeaMoney is a monster lurking in the shadows.Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021As you can see, Sea is at the forefront of three megatrends which should propel the business forward from here. Also, combining the different verticals in the same platform would present a significant synergistic opportunity as Sea establishes itself as a SuperApp in the making.Revenue ModelAs mentioned previously, Sea operates three main business segments.Digital EntertainmentGarena operates a freemium model whereby users can download and play games for free. The company generates revenue by selling in-game virtual items such as clothing, weaponry, or equipment.Investors should take note of how revenue is recognized for this segment. According to Sea's 10-K:Proceeds from these sales are initially recognized as “Advances from customers” and subsequently reclassified to “Deferred revenue” when the users make in-game purchases of the virtual currencies or virtual items within the games operated by the Company and the in-game purchases are no longer refundable.Garena also licenses games from other game developers. Revenue is generated based on revenue-sharing/royalty agreements with these developers. Revenue is recognized over the performance obligation period.Such delivery obligation period is determined in accordance with the estimated average lifespan of the virtual goods sold or estimated average lifespan of the paying users of the said games or similar games.E-commerceShopee generates revenue through a marketplace model. Sellers on the platform pay Shopee based on paid advertisement services, transaction-based fees, logistics services, and other value-added services.Shopee also generates revenue from goods sold directly by Shopee, which the company purchases in bulk from manufacturers or third-party suppliers.Digital Financial ServicesSeaMoney revenue consists of:Interest and fees from loans granted to commercial customersInterest and fees from Sea's consumer credit business such as SPayLaterCommissions charged to merchants when a customer pays using SeaMoney's mobile walletIncome StatementLet's analyze each of the business segments and then look at the entire Group as a whole.Digital EntertainmentGarena Revenue saw a 104% increase YoY in Q4. For the full year, Garena Revenue was up 114% YoY.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe rapid increase in Revenue was primarily due to recognition of accumulated deferred revenue from previous quarters. Bookings—which is essentially GAAP Revenue plus the change in digital entertainment deferred revenue —actually dropped for the first time QoQ and it is now lower than Revenue. This means that gamers are spending less on in-virtual items which will lead to lower Revenue recognized in subsequent quarters. As you can see, Bookings is in a massive deceleration.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe drop in Bookings was due to fewer gamers in the platform as the economy reopens and people spend more time outdoors, at school, or in the office. Quarterly Active Users, or QAUs, grew only 7% in Q4 to 652 million, compared to Q3's QAUs of 729 million.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAs a result, Quarterly Paying Users, or QPUs, decelerated as well, which led to lower Bookings. Q4 QPUs was 77 million compared to Q3's 93 million.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe markets reacted negatively to this slowdown in Garena growth as the gaming business acts as the lifeline for Sea's two other segments. As you can see, Garena is a high-margin business, producing Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion in FY2021. Operating Margin is very high at 61% in Q4. AEBITDA margin, on the other hand, is trending downwards as QoQ adds in Bookings wither.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAs such, the slowdown in growth for Garena is scaring investors away as it may not provide sufficient cash flow to fund the continued growth of Shopee and SeaMoney.E-CommerceShopee GMV continues its upward march as e-commerce continues to gain traction in Shopee's existing and newer markets. However, we're also seeing a deceleration in growth due to tough YoY comps. GMV in FY2021 was $62.5 billion, an increase of 77%.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisGMV growth was also due to an increase in Orders in the Shopee platform, which totaled 6.1 billion in FY2021, an increase of 117%. Average Order Value, or AOV, however, is trending downwards. This may be perceived negatively as processing more lower-AOV orders meant higher logistical expenses and thus lower margins per order.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe increase in GMV translated to higher Shopee Revenue, which grew faster than GMV. Shopee Revenue grew 136% to $5.1 billion in FY2021, as compared to GMV growth of 77%.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe faster growth in Revenue was due to Shopee's increasing take rate, which displays Shopee's ability to monetize its marketplace platform. This is one of the only few positive developments coming out of the most recent earnings update.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisDespite the improving Revenue and take rate, Shopee is still suffering huge losses and it is mounting with each subsequent quarter, primarily due to the company expanding into new markets. FY2021 Shopee AEBITDA was $(2.6) billion at a -50% margin. Recall that Garena AEBITDA was $2.7 billion.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAEBITDA per Order has been improving, although it flat-lined in the last few quarters. Again, this is due to the company aggressively expanding into new markets. For example, in Q4, Shopee Brazil recorded 140+ million gross orders with a $70+ million Revenue, up 400% and 326%, respectively. However, AEBITDA per Order in Brazil is still negative at $(2) per Order, despite being a 40% improvement from last year. As such, it is still a far cry from the overall AEBITDA per Order of $(0.45).Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisOn the bright side, in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, Q4 AEBITDA per Order before \"allocation of the headquarters’ common expenses\" was $(0.15), an improvement from last year's $(0.21). This shows that there is certainly hope for Shopee to be AEBITDA positive soon, which management has pointed out during the Q4 earnings call:We currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before HQ cost allocation in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year. We also expect SeaMoney to achieve positive cash flow by next year. As a result, we currently expect that by 2025 cash generated by Shopee and SeaMoney proactively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.Digital Financial ServicesSeaMoney's Mobile Wallet Total Payment Volume grew 120% YoY to $17.2 billion in FY2021 due to the increasing adoption of mobile wallets in the region.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe growth in TPV was largely driven by the growth in QAUs. As shown below, the total ending QAUs in Q4 grew 90% YoY to 45.8 million users.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe real exciting part is that Revenue grew much faster than TPV and QAUs. SeaMoney Revenue is growing at a blistering pace, locking in high triple-digit growth rates over the last few years. FY2021 SeaMoney Revenue was $470 million, which is an increase of 673% from the previous year. This is due to take rates increasing from less than 1% in FY2020 to almost 4% by the end of the latest quarter.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisFurthermore, in Indonesia, over 20% of the QAUs have used more than one SeaMoney product or service, which includes credit services, digital banking, and insurance. As SeaMoney introduces more offerings, revenue should accelerate meaningfully as average revenue per user increases when people use additional products.As SeaMoney continues to gain scale, the segment will enjoy better unit economics. As shown below, while SeaMoney's AEBITDA is still in deeply negative territories, AEBITDA Margins has continued to trend towards profitability. Management also expects SeaMoney to be cash flow positive by next year.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThis is the segment that investors should pay special attention to, given that it has the potential to be Sea's second cash cow. For example, PayPal has Operating Margins of 20%+, which could be SeaMoney's long-term margin profile.GroupWith that said, let's take a look at how the business is doing as a whole.FY2021 Revenue was $10.0 billion, an increase of 128% YoY. Due to the law of large numbers and tough YoY comps, Revenue growth should decelerate from here.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisHere, we can see how Revenue is distributed across the different segments.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisWhat's encouraging is that Gross Profit Margins continue to trend upwards as the company gains economies of scale, even accounting for Shopee's aggressive expansion into new markets. FY2021 Gross Profit was $3.9 billion, up 189% YoY.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisOperating Expenses, however, remain elevated as management forgoes short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. FY2021 Total Operating Expenses were $5.5 billion. Below shows the different components of Operating Expenses as a percentage of Revenue.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisMost of the Operating Expenses were used for Sales & Marketing purposes. Unsurprisingly, Shopee had the highest S&M burn rate. Discounts, cashback, celebrity promotions... they're everywhere.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAs a result, Operating Profit Margins is still negative, although it is trending in the right direction.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAEBITDA, on the other hand, is plunging. This is due to Garena's falling Bookings and Shoppe's widening losses. AEBITDA for FY2021 was $(594) million, compared to FY2020 positive AEBITDA of $107 million. This is probably the most concerning figure for investors as such a high cash burn rate is unsustainable, which may also lead to additional capital raises that are dilutive to shareholders.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe guidance did not help either. Garena Bookings is expected to fall to just $3 billion, which is $1.3 billion lower than FY2021's number. Management blamed the reopening of the economy as well as the ban of Free Fire in India for the expected drop in Bookings. Assuming a modest 50% AEBITDA margin, Garena would bring in just $1.5 billion of AEBITDA for Sea in FY2022.On the other side, the other two segments are expected to continue with their immense pace of growth — Shopee and SeaMoney are expected to grow by 76% and 155%, respectively. If we assume a (50)% AEBITDA margin for both segments, Shopee and SeaMoney is expected to burn a total of about $(5.1) billion of AEBITDA. Adding Garena's estimated AEBITDA of $1.5 billion, Sea, as a Group, is expected to burn $(3.6) billion in FY2021.Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor PresentationBecause Garena is such an important piece of Shopee's and SeaMoney's growth story, a deceleration in Garena's business had investors reacting so negatively to Sea's latest earnings release, as now, the gaming business is incapable of covering the massive losses incurred by the other two business segments.Balance SheetSea's balance sheet position as of year-end FY2021 is at about $10.2 billion of Cash and Short Term Investments. While this may show that Sea has a substantial cushion against its short-term cash burn rate, its net cash position paints a different picture.Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor PresentationAdjusting for Sea's debt, Sea ended the year with a net cash position of around $5.9 billion. A substantial amount of its total debt comes from its recent issuance of 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. The notes were issued when the stock was trading at $318 per share back in September and the initial conversion price is set at $477 per share. So, yes... conversion in the next 2 to 3 years is very unlikely.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisWith net cash of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won't be long before Sea requires another cash infusion. Therefore, if the high cash burn rate persists for the next 2 to 3 years, investors face a major risk of increasing financial leverage and/or dilution in the form of equity raises.Cash Flow StatementHere is what cash flow looks like over the last few quarters. Notice how Operating Cash Flow turned negative in the last quarter. Most of the cash also comes from Financing activities.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisUnlike other high-flying growth companies, Sea's Share-Based Compensation expenses are relatively low.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisCompetitive MoatsBased on my research and analysis, I identified three key competitive moats for Sea: brand, network effects, and barriers to entry. I used to think that Sea has cost advantages but as Garena becomes a smaller part of the overall business, and as losses continue to worsen, I have reason to believe that Sea no longer holds that moat.BrandAs discussed in previous sections, Garena's games, particularly Free Fire, have consistently ranked as the most downloaded mobile game in the world. Additionally, the Shopee app has gained cross-border stardom and is now regarded as the most downloaded or fastest-trending shopping App in the countries it operates in. Lastly, SeaMoney is also gaining traction with banking licenses granted in various countries that should increase brand value and trust.Network EffectsThe sheer amount of app downloads leads to powerful network effects. Garena has 652 million QAUs, which is about 8% of the world's population. Shopee recorded 200+ million app downloads in FY2021 alone. SeaMoney QAUs topped 45.8 million in Q4 and it is still in the early stages of adoption.With all these users in the Sea platform, cross-selling new products or services should be easier as Sea continues to scale. One such example is Shopee Brazil and Free Fire where each platform is encouraging consumers to use the other. As Sea continues to innovate and offer better experiences for its customers, the ecosystem gets bigger and tighter, leading to powerful network effects.Source: Shopee BrazilBarriers To EntryI believe each of Sea's core businesses is operating in a winner-takes-most environment with high barriers to entry.The mobile gaming environment requires the most talented developers to launch blockbuster games. Garena's Free Fire is certainly a blockbuster game and time in Free Fire's game means time away from other mobile games.Just like how Amazon (AMZN) dominates in the US, the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia and Latin America is dominated by a few players, such as Shopee, Tokopedia, and MercadoLibre (MELI). The scale and unit economics that these players have achieved makes it unsustainable for new entrants to compete with them.Banking and fintech is also a highly-regulated environment. Furthermore, consumers prefer to have just one mobile wallet, such as ShopeePay, as opposed to owning several different fintech applications.ValuationBased on my sum-of-the-parts and comparable company valuation analysis, Sea looks to be slightly undervalued with 19% upside potential. Of course, comparables are not perfect but based on this, we can gauge where Sea stands among peers.Source: Author's AnalysisOn the flip side, Sea looks extremely cheap on a historical basis. In terms of EV/Sales, Sea is trading at the lowest valuation since its IPO, trading at just 4.2x forward sales.Source: KoyfinIn terms of EV/Gross Profit, Sea is trading even cheaper than its March 2020 lows.Source: KoyfinThe valuation compression is warranted given that the company flew too close to the sun and now it is cratering back to the sea — not just for Sea, but almost all growth stocks took a beating. Growth is also slowing down and the macroeconomic environment looks gloomier than ever. However, this is not the end of the world; I think the markets are overreacting. Diversion from the mean goes both ways — perhaps, current prices present a good margin of safety for long-term investors.CatalystsSuccessful International Expansion — Shopee has been successful in replicating its playbook from Southeast Asia to Brazil. Recently, Shopee launched operations in India, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Poland, and Spain. If Shopee can take substantial market share in these new regions, Shopee's growth could turn exponential.The Metaverse — Sea's withering gaming division needs to be revitalized. New games and features could definitely provide the boost that it needs. For example, the metaverse is an exciting opportunity and Garena could introduce this concept to its 600+ million QAUs. Sea AI Lab (SAIL) and Sea Capital are two ventures that could accelerate the company into emerging industries, including the metaverse.We will continue to encourage user-generated content by enhancing greater features and accessibility. We believe that a strong user reception to Craftland is a positive indicator of the initial success to encourage user participation in content creation and to build Free Fire into an increasingly open platform and is well aligned with major emerging industry trends such as metaverse.Regional SuperApp — Although this concept has yet to be discussed by management, launching a regional SuperApp could enhance user engagement to new levels. For example, imagine Shopee users being able to play games, shop, order food delivery, pay for services, transfer money, invest, all under one app. Imagine users being able to convert their deposited funds in ShopeePay, into ShopeeCoins, and use it to perform cross-border transactions.Continued Growth In SeaMoney — SeaMoney is still in its early stages and continued adoption of Sea's digital financial services offerings will be a strong addition to Sea's bull thesis. SPayLater has real potential to disrupt the consumer credit industry. SeaBank and ShopeePay have the opportunity to capture digital wallet, digital banking, and cashless society trends.Free Fire India Ban Lift— Garena's weak guidance factored in the headwinds coming from the ban in India. If the ban is lifted, the stock may react positively as much of Sea's cash burn problems may be eliminated.RisksThe Pressure to Launch Blockbuster Games— There will come a time when Free Fire will be dethroned as the most-played and most-downloaded game. That is just how the gaming business works. This puts a substantial risk on the cash flow generation potential of Garena. Launching blockbuster games is never easy and it requires many trials and errors along the way. For me, I would like to see Garena shift to a gaming franchise model where the company launches an updated version of an existing game every year or two, which presents a more stable and recurring revenue stream for the company. An example would be FIFA or Call of Duty.Shopee India Ban — With Free Fire banned in India, there's also the potential for Shoppe to be banned as well.Failure to Gain Traction in International Markets— Shopee pulled out of France in early March, an indication that Shoppe's business model is not replicable in other countries, especially in more developed regions. Shopee Poland and Spain may be next on the exit list as they hold a close resemblance to France.Geopolitical Risks— Tencent, a Chinese company, has an 18.7% equity stake in Sea. Sanctions, bans, and other restrictions on Chinese companies, given the current geopolitical environment, could spell trouble for Sea. Tencent may have to cut exposure on Sea or even dissolve its developing-publishing partnership with Garena.Local Competition— Local champions operating in their respective markets cannot be ignored. These include GoTo in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and Flipkart in India.In addition, there's a certain level of pride for consumers to see their native-born companies succeed. I'm Indonesian, and it makes me really happy to see GoTo grow and grow.GoTo, the holding company of both Indonesian tech darlings Gojek and Tokopedia, recently announced its plan to IPO in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Here's a glance of GoTo's stats for the 12-months ended 30 September 2021:Valuation: $26.2 billion to $28.8 billionGMV: $28.8 billionRevenue: $1 billionGross Orders: 2 billionAnnual Transacting Users: 55 millionDriver Partners: 2.5 millionMerchants: 14 millionThe point is that there are big-time local players operating in Sea's markets that investors should never ignore. Here's a little snippet from my previous Shopee article:But with the GoTo merger, Indonesia could potentially extinguish the orange flame that charred its forest for many years. Now, GoTo could finally reclaim a good chunk of its territory that was lost to waves of competition, especially from Shopee. GoTo could finally gain more ground as the roots grew even stronger with the merger, fertilized with the synergies of value propositions, logistics, payments, and banking solutions.Meanwhile, Sea Limited's stock continues to soar, ignoring the titan of an elephant in the room. And because of GoTo's integration, Shopee's vertically-integrated business model doesn't look like a strong competitive advantage anymore.ConclusionEach of Sea's core businesses is in hypergrowth mode, propelled by megatrends in the mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech industry. Management understands these opportunities and therefore, is sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. Despite being a larger business, Sea still has a massive growth runway ahead.That is not to say that unprofitability and competition risks can and should be ignored. The biggest concern for investors is the company's unsustainable cash burn rate, which will likely lead to further capital raises in the near future.Nonetheless, the long-term growth thesis for the three-headed monster remains intact. Strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats should support the business going forward. In addition, shares of Sea are trading at the lowest valuation multiples ever, which presents a good margin of safety for an entry at these prices.Thank you for reading my Sea Limited deep dive. If you enjoyed the article, please let me know in the comment section down below. If you have any suggestions or feedback, don't hesitate to share your thoughts as well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}