Aoyjai personal page - To The Moon

Aoyjai

Aoyjai

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2023-02-28

No urgency

Palantir: Why I Am Still In

2023-02-17

Slow

Tesla's Recalling Over 362,000 Vehicles: Should You Hit the Brakes on Tesla Stock?

2023-02-03

Not a straight forward price comparison...DYOR

Tesla Discounts Threaten to Drag Rivals Into EV Price War

2022-12-15

Ok

@boonchong:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ it's game over for Tesla alrdy .. no more to the moon... cut loss now if u don't want another 50% losses .. stop listening to your YouTuber clowns claiming Tesla fundamentals no change..alrdt change liao .ever since Elon musk took over as twitter CEO and appoint another CEO for the Tesla seat .no more

2022-12-12

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ For this year

2022-12-10

$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$ Bull with horns

2022-12-09

$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ Good timing

2022-12-07

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I'm buying

2022-12-06

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ A buy at $177

2022-12-05

Nice to know

2 Under-the-Radar Cryptocurrencies With More Potential Than Bitcoin

2022-12-05

$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ Looking good

2022-12-04

BYD

NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out

2022-12-04

$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$ Time to buy

2022-12-03

Apple wanna play governor?

After Twitter Fight, Apple Blocks Coinbase Wallet Release on App Store

2022-12-02

$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ Everyone is bullish

2022-11-30

$Apple(AAPL)$ Best of FAANG

2022-11-29

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Looks like many sellers in queue

2022-11-27

Alt coin use cases exploded....

Litecoin And 4 Other Cryptos That Rallied 20% Or More This Week Even As Bitcoin Flatlined

2022-11-27

One more down leg in spring?

Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside

2022-11-22

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ Hmmmm

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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urgency&nbsp;","listText":"No urgency&nbsp;","text":"No urgency","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940093601","repostId":"1121046489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121046489","pubTimestamp":1677598116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121046489?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-28 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Why I Am Still In","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121046489","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryMr. Market rushed to buy Palantir's \"Profitability\" cover story. However, the company is not ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Mr. Market rushed to buy Palantir&#39;s &#34;Profitability&#34; cover story. However, the company is not operationally profitable yet, but we should get there soon.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s ARPC was down by 20%, reaching $5.2 million, but the decrease was attributable to the expanding commercial customer base, which started with a lower contract value (acquire-phase).</li><li>The never-ending global tensions and geopolitical uncertainty highlight the company&#39;s critical role in the global arena and the impact of the digitized battlefield.</li><li>SBC is Palantir&#39;s Achilles heel, but the normalization path is more apparent than ever.</li><li>I stay bullish on personal and model portfolios, with PLTR&#39;s short-term target price of $10.</li></ul><h3>Investment Thesis</h3><p>After 20 years of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a>&#39;s  existence, the company has never made a profit. Surprisingly, PLTR announced its first profitable quarter in Q4, which marks a new era for the firm. However, following the spike in the stock price above $10/share, the rally was short-lived as many investors rushed to exit.</p><h3>Important Distinction TAM Vs. SOM</h3><p>As previously examined in the company&#39;s S-1 filings, Palantir has a total addressable market (TAM) of $119 billion, but the firm did not update its TAM beyond that figure. According to Slintel, Palantir&#39;s current low market penetration is around 1.78%, suggesting the company has considerably more room for growth.</p><p>According to a report from Precedence Research, the global market size for data analytics will continue to grow at an impressive CAGR of 30.41% from 2022-2030 and is expected to hit $346.33 billion in 2030. To that effect, the rapidly increasing demand for data analytics services and solutions worldwide will benefit Palantir&#39;s financial performance over the long term by expanding its TAM.</p><p>Although there is some disagreement regarding Palantir&#39;s TAM of $119 billion compared to its serviceable obtainable market (SOM), my best estimate for Palantir&#39;s medium-term SOM ranges between $40-$50 billion, consisting of data visualization, predictive analytics, and fraud analytics. In other words, with $1.9 billion in revenue, Palantir has captured around 4% of the market share.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15105694344802a87c43460225c3fd6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Revenue Components (Gov Vs. Com)</h3><p>Palantir has expanded its business beyond government contracts to include more commercial clients. This diversification move maintained the company&#39;s consistent strong revenue growth (24% YoY) for 2022 despite macroeconomic adversities, and it expects a continued revenue expansion in 2023. In addition, Palantir&#39;s revenue continued to experience growth over the long term with the expansion of the primary market due to its enhanced engagement in commercial space. However, its limited focus on non-US markets restricts its ability to expand its customer base and revenue streams.</p><p>Specifically, the government segment (Gov) generated 56% of the $1.9 billion revenue in 2022; the rest came from the commercial segment (Com), and the majority of the customers, 61%, were in the US. Favorably, Palantir managed to grow its total customers, however, by 55%, reaching 367 customers by the end of 2022. As a result, the average revenue per customer (ARPC) dropped for a second consecutive year by 20%, down to $5.2 million per customer.</p><p>At first glance, the drop signals that customers do not spend more with the firm on average. However, the drop was due to the notable increase in the commercial segment in 2022 by 28%, reaching 260 Com customers. Specifically, new Com customers start with relatively low contracts of around $2-$3 million, which drags down the overall ARPC. Yet, Com&#39;s growth slowed down from a 24% QoQ increase to 14%, but the overall trend is still favorable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/390eadd758631fec977ed90487022511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"144\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Palantir initially started out getting contracts from the US Department of Defense. Despite the slight YoY 1.8% decrease in the number of Gov customers in 2022, the segment&#39;s ARPC remained the same throughout the year under the current challenging macro environment, proving the expanding ARPC and the Gov segment&#39;s recession-proof nature.</p><p>In previous articles, I stressed the importance of the Com segment, which could be the long-term growth driver of Palantir. With 147 Com clients that generated $645 million in 2021, Palantir had a commercial ARPC of $4.39 million, whereas, in 2022, the ARPC dropped to $3.2 million with an $834 million revenue. The decrease was due to sizable customer acquisition with rapid YoY growth of 79% but with smaller contract sizes.</p><p>CEO Alex Karp noted that 53% of Palantir&#39;s business deals are over $50 million. Favorably, the firm&#39;s top 20 customers spent $49.4 million in 2022, reporting a 13.3% YoY increase, supported by the Gov segment. Despite the customer base&#39;s resilient-proof attributes, having a large portion of revenues generated from a few large customers leads to less diversity and exposure to downside and volatility. Nevertheless, the increasing number of commercial customers partly mitigates this risk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323b23a643a76b1f6c8b207dfa0416d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Palantir has identified 6000 businesses with yearly revenues of at least $500 million, indicating potential clients with an average contract value of $9.33 million. To that effect, Palantir has achieved a 4.3% customer penetration but has an ARPC potential of nearly 3x. Furthermore, based on Palantir&#39;s &#34;Trojan Horse&#34; business model, many of these new Com customers will likely renew with a higher contract value in the foreseeable future, boosting ARPC levels.</p><p>The company&#39;s reliance on long-term government contracts can be subject to political and budgetary changes, resulting in revenue fluctuations. The company has succeeded in the government and defense sectors but has significant potential to expand its commercial segment and maintain its growth. PLTR&#39;s software license and maintenance fees are its primary revenue streams. These revenue streams have been consistent for years and have provided Palantir with a stable revenue base.</p><p>Palantir also generates revenue through professional services. The revenue stream has been growing in recent years as the company has expanded its customer base and worked to diversify its revenues. While professional services can be a high-margin revenue stream, there is the risk that they may not be as scalable as software licensing because they rely on the availability of highly skilled professionals. Finally, a smaller revenue segment is the platform hosting and support services, which is relatively new and represents a growing opportunity for Palantir as it expands.</p><p>Palantir maintains its growth in the government segment by developing and enhancing solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of government agencies, targeting new government agencies or departments, and developing relationships and partnerships to expand its reach and influence. For example, a £75 million Enterprise Agreement with the UK Ministry of Defense and an extended contract with the US Army Research Lab to deliver AI and ML capabilities provLasegment&#39;s resiliency.</p><p>Last but not least, based on the company&#39;s weighted average contract duration, the firm expects an additional 2.8-year contract duration. Specifically, as per note 15, Palantir&#39;s weighted average useful life stood at 4.85 years, and this enhances the predictability element of Palantir&#39;s revenue.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c901625acc99ee365742f79ad2815a73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Questioning Profitability?</h3><p>Karp noted on the latest earnings call:</p><blockquote>We were profitable for the first time in our company&#39;s history last quarter.</blockquote><p>Mr. Market rushed to buy Palantir&#39;s &#34;Profitability&#34; cover story. Palantir reported its first profitable quarter in its 20 years of existence with a $30.9 million positive net income. Some unusual items stand out after digging deeper into the net income breakdown. As per note 14 in the 10-K form, the firm operationally is not profitable yet. Specifically, Palantir has recorded a $44.3 million fair value gain due to the Palantir Japan &#34;step acquisition&#34;. Excluding this item, net income would still be at a loss, but the path to operational profitability has become more evident.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2d8264468aa0caaa6c1c3e0f63ff6a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SBC Normalization</h3><p>Stock-based compensation (SBC) used to be Palantir&#39;s Achilles heel and a deal breaker for many investors. Last year, Karp explicitly stated that investors could expect normalization in the next 18 to 24 months, as it happened. One of my favorite metrics for Palantir is the SBC-to-Revenue ratio, which has dropped to 30% in 2022 and was the second consecutive annual drop. The decrease was attributable to the inverse movement of 24% YoY revenue growth and the 27% decline in the SBC to $565 million from $779 million in 2021.</p><p>Looking forward, to develop a reasonable expectation for SBC&#39;s trend, the Restricted-Stock-Units (RSU) provides the unrecorded SBC element. Specifically, this is the sum of SBC from the current plans, which include Options subject to vesting conditions as the employees fulfill their duties throughout the vesting period.</p><p>As of the year-end of 2021, the company had 326.9 million options outstanding with 8.33 remaining contractual life. The options outstanding account for 15.8% of total shares outstanding, slightly better than 2021, at 17.4%. Assuming the options vest and convert evenly in the next eight years, it implies around 39 million shares of annual dilution or 1.8% of the 2022 year-end share count. However, this figure does not take into account new RSU grants.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f651afc9903181a4bf4ba52d0ee651d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In last year&#39;s article, we explored why Palantir&#39;s SBC has reached an inflection point. If this inverse relationship persists for another two to three years, Palantir will eventually reach GAAP profitability. Nevertheless, we investors are looking for companies that can add shareholder value; thus, focusing on the revenue growth rate compared to the dilution rate is the key.</p><p>Additionally, although Palantir increased its share count by a staggering 97% in 2021, there is light at the end of the tunnel. In 2022, the dilutive effect was minor, with only a slight increase in share count of 7%. On the contrary, the revenue growth rate was much faster, and this gap added value to the firm. In general, investors should closely track this metric as the wider this gap gets, the more shareholder value Palantir offers.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30159cf2cee1b27c842c74b5488a2e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Strategic Partnerships &amp; Collaborations</h3><p>Palantir has differentiated from competitors and positioned itself for sustained growth in the government and defense sectors over the long term. Palantir is developing and tailoring its products and services in the commercial segment, creating specialized solutions for specific industries or customizing its existing solutions to fit unique needs. In addition, it targets new industries or geographies and develops marketing strategies, strategic partnerships, and collaborations to reach new customers.</p><p>For example, Palantir collaborates with WesTrac, a provider of heavy equipment and aftermarket services to Australia&#39;s mining and construction sectors. The partnership will see Palantir&#39;s Foundry platform deployed across WesTrac&#39;s servicing and rebuilding operations centers in Perth. This partnership further expands Palantir&#39;s presence in the Australian industrial sector, complementing its long-standing collaboration with Rio Tinto (RIO).</p><p>Palantir has proactively formed strategic partnerships and collaborations with various companies to expand its reach, diversify its operations, and accelerate growth. With its flagship product, Foundry, Palantir is well-positioned to leverage data to drive better decision-making across organizations, making it an attractive partner for companies in various sectors.</p><p>Palantir has partnered with Lockheed Martin (LMT) to speed up the delivery of Aegis and future integrated combat system software through Palantir Apollo. The collaboration aims to improve the delivery of software that supports defense systems. Palantir&#39;s Apollo platform will enhance the efficiency and accuracy of software delivery for Aegis and other integrated combat systems. This collaboration highlights Palantir&#39;s ability to use data analysis and software expertise to support the defense industry.</p><p>Recent partnerships, such as those with WesTrac, Crisis24, and Tampa General Hospital, demonstrate Palantir&#39;s ability to serve industries such as mining, security, healthcare, and construction. These partnerships will likely accelerate the adoption of Palantir&#39;s products and services and enable the company to expand its market share.</p><p>Moreover, Palantir&#39;s collaborations with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US and the Ministry of Health in New South Wales, Australia, have shown that the company can provide valuable tools for public health preparedness, particularly in the face of pandemics.</p><p>Overall, Palantir&#39;s partnerships and collaborations have positioned the company to continue to grow and innovate, with the potential to enter new markets and drive its expansion in existing ones. As a result, it will lead to solid long-term growth in its financial performance and valuations.</p><h3>Additional Risks To Consider</h3><p>The revised growth guidance of 16% revenue growth is nearly half last year&#39;s 30% annual growth. Favorably, the Gov segment has shown its resiliency and recession-proof nature throughout 2021, so we shouldn&#39;t expect much volatility considering the geopolitical tensions that favor Palantir. On the other hand, even though the Com segment has meaningfully expanded and remains a growth catalyst for PLTR, the macro uncertainty might decelerate its growth in the short run.</p><p>Criticism for Palantir&#39;s collaboration with government agencies, particularly in surveillance and immigration enforcement, poses a significant risk to the stock&#39;s price growth. Any public disclosure that Palantir&#39;s software has been used to violate privacy rights and target vulnerable populations, such as immigrants and refugees, can severely affect its stock price.</p><p>Finally, emerging trends in data analytics, such as edge computing, artificial intelligence and machine learning, cloud-based analytics, augmented analytics, and predictive analytics, have boosted market competition. As a result, it could pressure Palantir to lower prices and invest more aggressively in research and development.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4f5bab4bc3bab1ae1fa7c2c0bc0ad3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Takeaway</h3><p>Although Palantir has established itself as a significant player in the data analytics market, its business outlook is subject to several risks and uncertainties. Nevertheless, the improving profitability and dilution prospects will strongly support PLTR&#39;s market valuation over the long term.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Why I Am Still In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Why I Am Still In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-28 23:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582503-palantir-why-i-am-still-in><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMr. Market rushed to buy Palantir's \"Profitability\" cover story. However, the company is not operationally profitable yet, but we should get there soon.Palantir's ARPC was down by 20%, reaching...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582503-palantir-why-i-am-still-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582503-palantir-why-i-am-still-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1121046489","content_text":"SummaryMr. Market rushed to buy Palantir's \"Profitability\" cover story. However, the company is not operationally profitable yet, but we should get there soon.Palantir's ARPC was down by 20%, reaching $5.2 million, but the decrease was attributable to the expanding commercial customer base, which started with a lower contract value (acquire-phase).The never-ending global tensions and geopolitical uncertainty highlight the company's critical role in the global arena and the impact of the digitized battlefield.SBC is Palantir's Achilles heel, but the normalization path is more apparent than ever.I stay bullish on personal and model portfolios, with PLTR's short-term target price of $10.Investment ThesisAfter 20 years of Palantir Technologies Inc.'s  existence, the company has never made a profit. Surprisingly, PLTR announced its first profitable quarter in Q4, which marks a new era for the firm. However, following the spike in the stock price above $10/share, the rally was short-lived as many investors rushed to exit.Important Distinction TAM Vs. SOMAs previously examined in the company's S-1 filings, Palantir has a total addressable market (TAM) of $119 billion, but the firm did not update its TAM beyond that figure. According to Slintel, Palantir's current low market penetration is around 1.78%, suggesting the company has considerably more room for growth.According to a report from Precedence Research, the global market size for data analytics will continue to grow at an impressive CAGR of 30.41% from 2022-2030 and is expected to hit $346.33 billion in 2030. To that effect, the rapidly increasing demand for data analytics services and solutions worldwide will benefit Palantir's financial performance over the long term by expanding its TAM.Although there is some disagreement regarding Palantir's TAM of $119 billion compared to its serviceable obtainable market (SOM), my best estimate for Palantir's medium-term SOM ranges between $40-$50 billion, consisting of data visualization, predictive analytics, and fraud analytics. In other words, with $1.9 billion in revenue, Palantir has captured around 4% of the market share.Revenue Components (Gov Vs. Com)Palantir has expanded its business beyond government contracts to include more commercial clients. This diversification move maintained the company's consistent strong revenue growth (24% YoY) for 2022 despite macroeconomic adversities, and it expects a continued revenue expansion in 2023. In addition, Palantir's revenue continued to experience growth over the long term with the expansion of the primary market due to its enhanced engagement in commercial space. However, its limited focus on non-US markets restricts its ability to expand its customer base and revenue streams.Specifically, the government segment (Gov) generated 56% of the $1.9 billion revenue in 2022; the rest came from the commercial segment (Com), and the majority of the customers, 61%, were in the US. Favorably, Palantir managed to grow its total customers, however, by 55%, reaching 367 customers by the end of 2022. As a result, the average revenue per customer (ARPC) dropped for a second consecutive year by 20%, down to $5.2 million per customer.At first glance, the drop signals that customers do not spend more with the firm on average. However, the drop was due to the notable increase in the commercial segment in 2022 by 28%, reaching 260 Com customers. Specifically, new Com customers start with relatively low contracts of around $2-$3 million, which drags down the overall ARPC. Yet, Com's growth slowed down from a 24% QoQ increase to 14%, but the overall trend is still favorable.Palantir initially started out getting contracts from the US Department of Defense. Despite the slight YoY 1.8% decrease in the number of Gov customers in 2022, the segment's ARPC remained the same throughout the year under the current challenging macro environment, proving the expanding ARPC and the Gov segment's recession-proof nature.In previous articles, I stressed the importance of the Com segment, which could be the long-term growth driver of Palantir. With 147 Com clients that generated $645 million in 2021, Palantir had a commercial ARPC of $4.39 million, whereas, in 2022, the ARPC dropped to $3.2 million with an $834 million revenue. The decrease was due to sizable customer acquisition with rapid YoY growth of 79% but with smaller contract sizes.CEO Alex Karp noted that 53% of Palantir's business deals are over $50 million. Favorably, the firm's top 20 customers spent $49.4 million in 2022, reporting a 13.3% YoY increase, supported by the Gov segment. Despite the customer base's resilient-proof attributes, having a large portion of revenues generated from a few large customers leads to less diversity and exposure to downside and volatility. Nevertheless, the increasing number of commercial customers partly mitigates this risk.Palantir has identified 6000 businesses with yearly revenues of at least $500 million, indicating potential clients with an average contract value of $9.33 million. To that effect, Palantir has achieved a 4.3% customer penetration but has an ARPC potential of nearly 3x. Furthermore, based on Palantir's \"Trojan Horse\" business model, many of these new Com customers will likely renew with a higher contract value in the foreseeable future, boosting ARPC levels.The company's reliance on long-term government contracts can be subject to political and budgetary changes, resulting in revenue fluctuations. The company has succeeded in the government and defense sectors but has significant potential to expand its commercial segment and maintain its growth. PLTR's software license and maintenance fees are its primary revenue streams. These revenue streams have been consistent for years and have provided Palantir with a stable revenue base.Palantir also generates revenue through professional services. The revenue stream has been growing in recent years as the company has expanded its customer base and worked to diversify its revenues. While professional services can be a high-margin revenue stream, there is the risk that they may not be as scalable as software licensing because they rely on the availability of highly skilled professionals. Finally, a smaller revenue segment is the platform hosting and support services, which is relatively new and represents a growing opportunity for Palantir as it expands.Palantir maintains its growth in the government segment by developing and enhancing solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of government agencies, targeting new government agencies or departments, and developing relationships and partnerships to expand its reach and influence. For example, a £75 million Enterprise Agreement with the UK Ministry of Defense and an extended contract with the US Army Research Lab to deliver AI and ML capabilities provLasegment's resiliency.Last but not least, based on the company's weighted average contract duration, the firm expects an additional 2.8-year contract duration. Specifically, as per note 15, Palantir's weighted average useful life stood at 4.85 years, and this enhances the predictability element of Palantir's revenue.Questioning Profitability?Karp noted on the latest earnings call:We were profitable for the first time in our company's history last quarter.Mr. Market rushed to buy Palantir's \"Profitability\" cover story. Palantir reported its first profitable quarter in its 20 years of existence with a $30.9 million positive net income. Some unusual items stand out after digging deeper into the net income breakdown. As per note 14 in the 10-K form, the firm operationally is not profitable yet. Specifically, Palantir has recorded a $44.3 million fair value gain due to the Palantir Japan \"step acquisition\". Excluding this item, net income would still be at a loss, but the path to operational profitability has become more evident.SBC NormalizationStock-based compensation (SBC) used to be Palantir's Achilles heel and a deal breaker for many investors. Last year, Karp explicitly stated that investors could expect normalization in the next 18 to 24 months, as it happened. One of my favorite metrics for Palantir is the SBC-to-Revenue ratio, which has dropped to 30% in 2022 and was the second consecutive annual drop. The decrease was attributable to the inverse movement of 24% YoY revenue growth and the 27% decline in the SBC to $565 million from $779 million in 2021.Looking forward, to develop a reasonable expectation for SBC's trend, the Restricted-Stock-Units (RSU) provides the unrecorded SBC element. Specifically, this is the sum of SBC from the current plans, which include Options subject to vesting conditions as the employees fulfill their duties throughout the vesting period.As of the year-end of 2021, the company had 326.9 million options outstanding with 8.33 remaining contractual life. The options outstanding account for 15.8% of total shares outstanding, slightly better than 2021, at 17.4%. Assuming the options vest and convert evenly in the next eight years, it implies around 39 million shares of annual dilution or 1.8% of the 2022 year-end share count. However, this figure does not take into account new RSU grants.In last year's article, we explored why Palantir's SBC has reached an inflection point. If this inverse relationship persists for another two to three years, Palantir will eventually reach GAAP profitability. Nevertheless, we investors are looking for companies that can add shareholder value; thus, focusing on the revenue growth rate compared to the dilution rate is the key.Additionally, although Palantir increased its share count by a staggering 97% in 2021, there is light at the end of the tunnel. In 2022, the dilutive effect was minor, with only a slight increase in share count of 7%. On the contrary, the revenue growth rate was much faster, and this gap added value to the firm. In general, investors should closely track this metric as the wider this gap gets, the more shareholder value Palantir offers.Strategic Partnerships & CollaborationsPalantir has differentiated from competitors and positioned itself for sustained growth in the government and defense sectors over the long term. Palantir is developing and tailoring its products and services in the commercial segment, creating specialized solutions for specific industries or customizing its existing solutions to fit unique needs. In addition, it targets new industries or geographies and develops marketing strategies, strategic partnerships, and collaborations to reach new customers.For example, Palantir collaborates with WesTrac, a provider of heavy equipment and aftermarket services to Australia's mining and construction sectors. The partnership will see Palantir's Foundry platform deployed across WesTrac's servicing and rebuilding operations centers in Perth. This partnership further expands Palantir's presence in the Australian industrial sector, complementing its long-standing collaboration with Rio Tinto (RIO).Palantir has proactively formed strategic partnerships and collaborations with various companies to expand its reach, diversify its operations, and accelerate growth. With its flagship product, Foundry, Palantir is well-positioned to leverage data to drive better decision-making across organizations, making it an attractive partner for companies in various sectors.Palantir has partnered with Lockheed Martin (LMT) to speed up the delivery of Aegis and future integrated combat system software through Palantir Apollo. The collaboration aims to improve the delivery of software that supports defense systems. Palantir's Apollo platform will enhance the efficiency and accuracy of software delivery for Aegis and other integrated combat systems. This collaboration highlights Palantir's ability to use data analysis and software expertise to support the defense industry.Recent partnerships, such as those with WesTrac, Crisis24, and Tampa General Hospital, demonstrate Palantir's ability to serve industries such as mining, security, healthcare, and construction. These partnerships will likely accelerate the adoption of Palantir's products and services and enable the company to expand its market share.Moreover, Palantir's collaborations with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US and the Ministry of Health in New South Wales, Australia, have shown that the company can provide valuable tools for public health preparedness, particularly in the face of pandemics.Overall, Palantir's partnerships and collaborations have positioned the company to continue to grow and innovate, with the potential to enter new markets and drive its expansion in existing ones. As a result, it will lead to solid long-term growth in its financial performance and valuations.Additional Risks To ConsiderThe revised growth guidance of 16% revenue growth is nearly half last year's 30% annual growth. Favorably, the Gov segment has shown its resiliency and recession-proof nature throughout 2021, so we shouldn't expect much volatility considering the geopolitical tensions that favor Palantir. On the other hand, even though the Com segment has meaningfully expanded and remains a growth catalyst for PLTR, the macro uncertainty might decelerate its growth in the short run.Criticism for Palantir's collaboration with government agencies, particularly in surveillance and immigration enforcement, poses a significant risk to the stock's price growth. Any public disclosure that Palantir's software has been used to violate privacy rights and target vulnerable populations, such as immigrants and refugees, can severely affect its stock price.Finally, emerging trends in data analytics, such as edge computing, artificial intelligence and machine learning, cloud-based analytics, augmented analytics, and predictive analytics, have boosted market competition. As a result, it could pressure Palantir to lower prices and invest more aggressively in research and development.TakeawayAlthough Palantir has established itself as a significant player in the data analytics market, its business outlook is subject to several risks and uncertainties. Nevertheless, the improving profitability and dilution prospects will strongly support PLTR's market valuation over the long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954792522,"gmtCreate":1676612097666,"gmtModify":1676612101590,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Slow&nbsp;","listText":"Slow&nbsp;","text":"Slow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954792522","repostId":"2312142432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2312142432","pubTimestamp":1676599711,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2312142432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-17 10:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Recalling Over 362,000 Vehicles: Should You Hit the Brakes on Tesla Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2312142432","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A government agency has concerns about Autopilot","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> is recalling more than 362,000 vehicles equipped with its driver-assist software in response to government concerns that the system could cause crashes.</p><p>The fix, at first glance, appears relatively straightforward. But it involves software that Elon Musk said last year was &#34;essential&#34; to the company&#39;s survival. And it could open the door to further questions surrounding Tesla&#39;s Autopilot systems.</p><p>There is no reason for investors to make a &#34;sell&#34; decision based on the headlines, but this is a situation that Tesla shareholders need to monitor closely in the quarters to come.</p><h2>Autopilot hits a speed bump</h2><p>In a recall notice published Thursday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said that Tesla&#39;s full self-driving software package &#34;may allow the vehicle to act unsafe around intersections,&#34; adding that the system &#34;may respond insufficiently to changes in posted speed limits or not adequately account for the driver&#39;s adjustment of the vehicle&#39;s speed to exceed posted speed limits.&#34;</p><p>Tesla in response is voluntarily recalling the vehicles, with plans for an over-the-air software fix. The vehicles affected include 2016-2023 Model S and Model X, 2017-2023 Model 3, and 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles equipped with the Full-Self Driving beta.</p><p>Despite the name, &#34;Full Self-Driving&#34; does not make a Tesla autonomous, and the company has long dealt with questions about its marketing of the system and how its owners use it. The software has been a lucrative add-on for Tesla: The option currently costs $15,000 up front or $199 per month in the United States.</p><p>Tesla offered no comment on the NHTSA announcement. Tesla according to the notice has identified 18 warranty claims potentially related to the conditions described by the NHTSA, and it isn&#39;t aware of any injuries or deaths related to those situations.</p><h2>The risk goes far beyond this announcement</h2><p>Shares of Tesla were largely unchanged following the announcement, perhaps because of the relatively simple fix offered in the recall notice. Automakers routinely deal with recalls to fix a range of problems, and Tesla is no exception.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean investors can be asleep at the wheel. The Autopilot or Full Self-Driving technology is a key part of the bull case for Tesla, and a major reason the company boasts a valuation that dwarfs the rest of the industry. Musk, in a 2022 interview, said that it is &#34;essential&#34; that the company solves full self-driving, saying &#34;it&#39;s really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero.&#34;</p><p>The NHTSA said in its statement it will continue to monitor the recall to ensure Tesla&#39;s remedies are effective, and noted that a broader investigation of Tesla&#39;s software systems remains open and active. Government officials have said they are concerned that the technology might make drivers less-attentive than what is needed to be safe.</p><p>There is also a risk that Tesla might eventually need to invest in new hardware to satisfy government concerns, which could mean either refunds or costly upgrades to hundreds of thousands of vehicles already on the roads whose owners have bought the service. And some of the conditions contained in the recall could make Autopilot less appealing to consumers, for example language requiring Autopilot to limit Tesla vehicles to the posted speed limit.</p><h2>Keep your hands on the wheel</h2><p>There is nothing in this news to suggest Tesla is going to zero. But Tesla is going to have to navigate past this period of government scrutiny for the stock to reach the potential some believe it has. Last year, Cathie Wood&#39;s Ark Invest said Tesla shares could be worth as much as $4,600 apiece -- more than 20 times the current price -- by 2026, assuming robotaxis are in service by then.</p><p>Even in Ark&#39;s bear case, which puts the price of Tesla shares at $2,900, assumes about $50 billion in autonomous revenue by 2026.</p><p>With the government taking action, Tesla is likely to spend more time reworking its existing systems and less time pushing the envelope further, meaning the odds decrease that the company will hit Ark&#39;s futuristic goal by that 2026 deadline. And that makes other Tesla initiatives, including its Cybertruck, all the more essential to growth.</p><p>Tesla investors need not get off the road, but they should buckle up in anticipation of a rough patch up ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Recalling Over 362,000 Vehicles: Should You Hit the Brakes on Tesla Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Recalling Over 362,000 Vehicles: Should You Hit the Brakes on Tesla Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-17 10:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/16/teslas-recalling-over-300000-vehicles-should-you-h/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla is recalling more than 362,000 vehicles equipped with its driver-assist software in response to government concerns that the system could cause crashes.The fix, at first glance, appears ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/16/teslas-recalling-over-300000-vehicles-should-you-h/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/16/teslas-recalling-over-300000-vehicles-should-you-h/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2312142432","content_text":"Tesla is recalling more than 362,000 vehicles equipped with its driver-assist software in response to government concerns that the system could cause crashes.The fix, at first glance, appears relatively straightforward. But it involves software that Elon Musk said last year was \"essential\" to the company's survival. And it could open the door to further questions surrounding Tesla's Autopilot systems.There is no reason for investors to make a \"sell\" decision based on the headlines, but this is a situation that Tesla shareholders need to monitor closely in the quarters to come.Autopilot hits a speed bumpIn a recall notice published Thursday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said that Tesla's full self-driving software package \"may allow the vehicle to act unsafe around intersections,\" adding that the system \"may respond insufficiently to changes in posted speed limits or not adequately account for the driver's adjustment of the vehicle's speed to exceed posted speed limits.\"Tesla in response is voluntarily recalling the vehicles, with plans for an over-the-air software fix. The vehicles affected include 2016-2023 Model S and Model X, 2017-2023 Model 3, and 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles equipped with the Full-Self Driving beta.Despite the name, \"Full Self-Driving\" does not make a Tesla autonomous, and the company has long dealt with questions about its marketing of the system and how its owners use it. The software has been a lucrative add-on for Tesla: The option currently costs $15,000 up front or $199 per month in the United States.Tesla offered no comment on the NHTSA announcement. Tesla according to the notice has identified 18 warranty claims potentially related to the conditions described by the NHTSA, and it isn't aware of any injuries or deaths related to those situations.The risk goes far beyond this announcementShares of Tesla were largely unchanged following the announcement, perhaps because of the relatively simple fix offered in the recall notice. Automakers routinely deal with recalls to fix a range of problems, and Tesla is no exception.But that doesn't mean investors can be asleep at the wheel. The Autopilot or Full Self-Driving technology is a key part of the bull case for Tesla, and a major reason the company boasts a valuation that dwarfs the rest of the industry. Musk, in a 2022 interview, said that it is \"essential\" that the company solves full self-driving, saying \"it's really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero.\"The NHTSA said in its statement it will continue to monitor the recall to ensure Tesla's remedies are effective, and noted that a broader investigation of Tesla's software systems remains open and active. Government officials have said they are concerned that the technology might make drivers less-attentive than what is needed to be safe.There is also a risk that Tesla might eventually need to invest in new hardware to satisfy government concerns, which could mean either refunds or costly upgrades to hundreds of thousands of vehicles already on the roads whose owners have bought the service. And some of the conditions contained in the recall could make Autopilot less appealing to consumers, for example language requiring Autopilot to limit Tesla vehicles to the posted speed limit.Keep your hands on the wheelThere is nothing in this news to suggest Tesla is going to zero. But Tesla is going to have to navigate past this period of government scrutiny for the stock to reach the potential some believe it has. Last year, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest said Tesla shares could be worth as much as $4,600 apiece -- more than 20 times the current price -- by 2026, assuming robotaxis are in service by then.Even in Ark's bear case, which puts the price of Tesla shares at $2,900, assumes about $50 billion in autonomous revenue by 2026.With the government taking action, Tesla is likely to spend more time reworking its existing systems and less time pushing the envelope further, meaning the odds decrease that the company will hit Ark's futuristic goal by that 2026 deadline. And that makes other Tesla initiatives, including its Cybertruck, all the more essential to growth.Tesla investors need not get off the road, but they should buckle up in anticipation of a rough patch up ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955690460,"gmtCreate":1675380097850,"gmtModify":1676538997424,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a straight forward price comparison...DYOR","listText":"Not a straight forward price comparison...DYOR","text":"Not a straight forward price comparison...DYOR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955690460","repostId":"1100478671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100478671","pubTimestamp":1675327113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100478671?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-02 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Discounts Threaten to Drag Rivals Into EV Price War","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100478671","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Industry risks hit to profitability if price cuts spreadDebut of 50 EV models in US this year to add","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Industry risks hit to profitability if price cuts spread</li><li>Debut of 50 EV models in US this year to add pressure</li></ul><p>A price war is brewing in the electric vehicle market, but General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG both said they plan to avoid joining the fray — for now.</p><p>Tesla Inc., the largest EV seller in the US, recently slashed prices by as much as 20% on some models. Ford Motor Co. followed suit, reducing the sticker on its Mustang Mach-E by an average of $4,500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87d5488ef53eaf5fb711b9f0a33931d\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>There actions were partly driven by new rules on federal EV subsidies starting this year, which were crafted after passage of President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act. Tesla and Ford both cited the need to cut consumer costs so that buyers could max out on tax credits of as much as $7,500.</p><p>Investors worry that these reductions, coupled with the release of dozens of new EV models later this year, could cause prices to spiral lower and hamper profitability.</p><p>However, GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra and her counterpart Oliver Blume at Volkswagen both said Tuesday that they can avoid cutting prices.</p><p>“Right now, we’re priced where we need to be,” Barra told analysts on a conference call. “With the strength of our product portfolio and what we have coming, we’re positioned well.”</p><p>Blume had a similar view, telling the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that the company had a clear pricing strategy and is focused on reliability.</p><p>“We trust in the strength of our products and brands,” Blume told the newspaper.</p><p>GM trailed competitors into the higher end of the EV market, which could forestall the need for discounts if a price war breaks out because it has fewer cars in the pipeline or sitting on dealer lots.</p><p>Plus, customers have lined up for both Lyriq and Hummer vehicles, so GM isn’t feeling pressure yet, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for researcher LMC Automotive.</p><p>The automaker is just ramping up battery cell production at its Ultium Cells LLC joint-venture plant in Ohio. In the second half of 2023, it’s increasing production of current EVs and adding three Chevrolet models.</p><p>“I get what they said, which is they have a backlog and don’t need to cut prices now,” Schuster said. “But when they don’t have constraints, will they want volume or pricing?”</p><p>If the rest of the industry gets sucked into price cutting, GM’s aggressive plans could be one of the main reasons. Barra said 2023 will “be a breakout year for the Ultium platform.” The company will begin building the Chevy Silverado pickup and Blazer and Equinox SUVs. The Blazer will compete directly with Ford’s Mach-E and Tesla Model Y, where the EV maker cut prices the most.</p><p>On top of that, automakers will collectively add 50 new EVs this year. Some are small-volume entries from startups and others are electric vans aimed at corporate fleet customers, but most are aimed at retail buyers.</p><p>Schuster said Tesla’s Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, which opened in late 2021, has capacity to build 500,000 vehicles annually, but produced only 93,000 last year. As production rises, there may be more pressure to cut prices to meet sales volume expectations, he said. When the Cybertruck goes into production, which could be late this year, that could push Ford to cut F-150 Lightning pickup prices.</p><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a goal to increase sales 50% — a target the company missed in 2022 — to 1.8 million units this year. The company has strong margins and could sacrifice them to make life tough on competitors.</p><p>There’s one mitigating factor at play, which is that price reductions by Tesla and Ford don’t necessarily mean that the EV market is in trouble. In both cases, the companies rolled back hikes from last year when the chip shortage slowed production and fueled big gains in pricing for new cars.</p><p>Still, as competition heats up, EV buyers could benefit with more affordable options. And that would pressure profits, according to John Murphy, an analyst for Bank of America.</p><p>“The irrational pricing spiral that appears to be beginning on EVs will hopefully be quickly remedied by criticism by investors — if heeded,” Murphy wrote in a research note. “If not, we believe there is significant risk.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Discounts Threaten to Drag Rivals Into EV Price War</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Discounts Threaten to Drag Rivals Into EV Price War\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-02 16:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/tesla-ev-price-cuts-threaten-to-drag-gm-volkswagen-into-price-war?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Industry risks hit to profitability if price cuts spreadDebut of 50 EV models in US this year to add pressureA price war is brewing in the electric vehicle market, but General Motors Co. and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/tesla-ev-price-cuts-threaten-to-drag-gm-volkswagen-into-price-war?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/tesla-ev-price-cuts-threaten-to-drag-gm-volkswagen-into-price-war?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100478671","content_text":"Industry risks hit to profitability if price cuts spreadDebut of 50 EV models in US this year to add pressureA price war is brewing in the electric vehicle market, but General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG both said they plan to avoid joining the fray — for now.Tesla Inc., the largest EV seller in the US, recently slashed prices by as much as 20% on some models. Ford Motor Co. followed suit, reducing the sticker on its Mustang Mach-E by an average of $4,500.There actions were partly driven by new rules on federal EV subsidies starting this year, which were crafted after passage of President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act. Tesla and Ford both cited the need to cut consumer costs so that buyers could max out on tax credits of as much as $7,500.Investors worry that these reductions, coupled with the release of dozens of new EV models later this year, could cause prices to spiral lower and hamper profitability.However, GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra and her counterpart Oliver Blume at Volkswagen both said Tuesday that they can avoid cutting prices.“Right now, we’re priced where we need to be,” Barra told analysts on a conference call. “With the strength of our product portfolio and what we have coming, we’re positioned well.”Blume had a similar view, telling the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that the company had a clear pricing strategy and is focused on reliability.“We trust in the strength of our products and brands,” Blume told the newspaper.GM trailed competitors into the higher end of the EV market, which could forestall the need for discounts if a price war breaks out because it has fewer cars in the pipeline or sitting on dealer lots.Plus, customers have lined up for both Lyriq and Hummer vehicles, so GM isn’t feeling pressure yet, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for researcher LMC Automotive.The automaker is just ramping up battery cell production at its Ultium Cells LLC joint-venture plant in Ohio. In the second half of 2023, it’s increasing production of current EVs and adding three Chevrolet models.“I get what they said, which is they have a backlog and don’t need to cut prices now,” Schuster said. “But when they don’t have constraints, will they want volume or pricing?”If the rest of the industry gets sucked into price cutting, GM’s aggressive plans could be one of the main reasons. Barra said 2023 will “be a breakout year for the Ultium platform.” The company will begin building the Chevy Silverado pickup and Blazer and Equinox SUVs. The Blazer will compete directly with Ford’s Mach-E and Tesla Model Y, where the EV maker cut prices the most.On top of that, automakers will collectively add 50 new EVs this year. Some are small-volume entries from startups and others are electric vans aimed at corporate fleet customers, but most are aimed at retail buyers.Schuster said Tesla’s Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, which opened in late 2021, has capacity to build 500,000 vehicles annually, but produced only 93,000 last year. As production rises, there may be more pressure to cut prices to meet sales volume expectations, he said. When the Cybertruck goes into production, which could be late this year, that could push Ford to cut F-150 Lightning pickup prices.Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a goal to increase sales 50% — a target the company missed in 2022 — to 1.8 million units this year. The company has strong margins and could sacrifice them to make life tough on competitors.There’s one mitigating factor at play, which is that price reductions by Tesla and Ford don’t necessarily mean that the EV market is in trouble. In both cases, the companies rolled back hikes from last year when the chip shortage slowed production and fueled big gains in pricing for new cars.Still, as competition heats up, EV buyers could benefit with more affordable options. And that would pressure profits, according to John Murphy, an analyst for Bank of America.“The irrational pricing spiral that appears to be beginning on EVs will hopefully be quickly remedied by criticism by investors — if heeded,” Murphy wrote in a research note. “If not, we believe there is significant risk.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921410883,"gmtCreate":1671110005342,"gmtModify":1676538491698,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921410883","repostId":"9921404673","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9921404673,"gmtCreate":1671106011792,"gmtModify":1676538490953,"author":{"id":"3580625969745490","authorId":"3580625969745490","name":"boonchong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49aa77ad0af13cd80f20edbad1234522","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ &nbsp;</a>it's game over for Tesla alrdy&nbsp; &nbsp;.. no more to the moon... cut loss now if u don't want another 50% losses .. stop listening to your YouTuber clowns claiming Tesla fundamentals no change..alrdt change liao .ever since Elon musk took over as twitter CEO and appoint another CEO for the Tesla seat .no more","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ &nbsp;</a>it's game over for Tesla alrdy&nbsp; &nbsp;.. no more to the moon... cut loss now if u don't want another 50% losses .. stop listening to your YouTuber clowns claiming Tesla fundamentals no change..alrdt change liao .ever since Elon musk took over as twitter CEO and appoint another CEO for the Tesla seat .no more","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ it's game over for Tesla alrdy .. no more to the moon... cut loss now if u don't want another 50% losses .. stop listening to your YouTuber clowns claiming Tesla fundamentals no change..alrdt change liao .ever since Elon musk took over as twitter CEO and appoint another CEO for the Tesla seat .no more","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bd85af88c24aecf2a7595e7956836c2d","width":"720","height":"1382"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921404673","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923887770,"gmtCreate":1670825697091,"gmtModify":1676538441444,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>For this year&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>For this year&nbsp;","text":"$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ For this year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923887770","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929859595,"gmtCreate":1670639252318,"gmtModify":1676538410258,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Bull with horns","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Bull with horns","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$ Bull with horns","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929859595","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920493188,"gmtCreate":1670538839544,"gmtModify":1676538386964,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Good timing&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Good timing&nbsp;","text":"$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ Good timing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920493188","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967574642,"gmtCreate":1670367469887,"gmtModify":1676538351655,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>I'm buying&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>I'm buying&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I'm buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967574642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967631953,"gmtCreate":1670308473173,"gmtModify":1676538341670,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>A buy at $177","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>A buy at $177","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ A buy at $177","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967631953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967072563,"gmtCreate":1670241781552,"gmtModify":1676538327250,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice to know&nbsp;","listText":"Nice to know&nbsp;","text":"Nice to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967072563","repostId":"2288383909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288383909","pubTimestamp":1670254211,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288383909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:30","market":"other","language":"en","title":"2 Under-the-Radar Cryptocurrencies With More Potential Than Bitcoin","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288383909","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"At a time when most cryptos are in the red, two Bitcoin alternatives -- Litecoin and Dash -- are starting to pull away from the pack.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>In the crypto market, all eyes are on <b>Bitcoin</b>, and for good reason. Not only is it the largest crypto by market capitalization, it is also historically the one crypto that leads the market both higher and lower. That creates the opportunity for some cryptos to trade under the radar of investors who are too busy watching Bitcoin.</p><p>This could be the situation now with <b>Litecoin</b> and <b>Dash</b>, which have pushed steadily higher over the past month at a time when Bitcoin is losing momentum. Litecoin is up 39.70% over the past 30 days, while Dash is up 8.13% over that same time period. In contrast, Bitcoin is down 16.68%.</p><h2>What do all of these coins have in common?</h2><p>Both Litecoin and Dash are based on the same cryptocurrency technology used to create Bitcoin. While Bitcoin launched as the original cryptocurrency back in 2009, Litecoin launched two years later as a &#34;lite&#34; version of it, hence the name. The goal of Litecoin was simply to improve on what Bitcoin already offered in terms of faster, cheaper payments.</p><p>The story is similar for Dash, which launched in 2014 as a fork of Litecoin. This means that the original blockchain developers behind Litecoin decided to split the main blockchain and name the new one Dash.</p><p>The fact that all three cryptos are related is important because it means all three are based on roughly the same proof-of-work blockchain technology that relies on mining to create new blocks for the blockchain.</p><p>This also means that all three of these coins undergo a process known as a &#34;halving&#34; on a schedule set by an algorithm. In a halving, the block reward for miners is cut by one-half. Bitcoin undergoes a halving every four years, as does Litecoin. Dash undergoes a halving once every 365 days, because the block reward is reduced by only 7.14%, not 50%.</p><h2>How to profit from the halving</h2><p>Historically, halving events have been very lucrative for traders and have always been very much anticipated by the crypto market. The easiest way to profit from these events is to buy anywhere from 12 to 15 months ahead of the next halving. Since the date of each halving is determined algorithmically, it is easy to pinpoint when this is going to happen for each coin. The next Bitcoin halving is March 2024, the next Litecoin halving is July 2023, and the next Dash halving is May 2023.</p><p>Once you understand the timing of these halving events, it&#39;s easy to see why Litecoin and Dash both appear to be diverging from Bitcoin right now. If historical models hold, one would expect Dash and Litecoin to benefit first from their respective halving events, and Bitcoin to lag behind by at least several months. Moreover, since the Dash halving is not nearly as pronounced as the Litecoin halving (7.14% compared to 50%), one would also expect a greater rally in the price of Litecoin than in Dash, which is what we are seeing. Right now, traders are expecting that Litecoin could have a 200% price rally by the time of its next halving.</p><h2>More potential than Bitcoin, but for how long?</h2><p>For this reason, Litecoin and Dash could have more potential than Bitcoin over the near-term future. Crypto publications are already starting to talk about the &#34;pre-halving rally&#34; for Litecoin, which has only intensified the impact of this effect. Since the Bitcoin halving is not going to happen until 2024, it will likely trade sideways for the rest of this year and into early 2023. Thus, a very short-term window exists for Litecoin and Dash to outperform Bitcoin. At a time when much of the crypto market is deep in the red, this could be a sneaky opportunity to profit from both Litecoin and Dash.</p><p>Over the long term, though, I&#39;m still much more bullish on Bitcoin than on either Litecoin or Dash. For example, some traders are predicting that Bitcoin could rally to $63,000 by March 2024 as a result of investor anticipation of the next halving. If there is one cryptocurrency to buy and hold for the long term, it&#39;s Bitcoin. But if you are looking to pad your crypto portfolio by year-end, it could be worth a closer look at Litecoin and Dash.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Under-the-Radar Cryptocurrencies With More Potential Than Bitcoin</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Under-the-Radar Cryptocurrencies With More Potential Than Bitcoin\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/04/2-under-the-radar-cryptocurrencies-with-more-poten/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In the crypto market, all eyes are on Bitcoin, and for good reason. Not only is it the largest crypto by market capitalization, it is also historically the one crypto that leads the market both higher...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/04/2-under-the-radar-cryptocurrencies-with-more-poten/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/04/2-under-the-radar-cryptocurrencies-with-more-poten/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288383909","content_text":"In the crypto market, all eyes are on Bitcoin, and for good reason. Not only is it the largest crypto by market capitalization, it is also historically the one crypto that leads the market both higher and lower. That creates the opportunity for some cryptos to trade under the radar of investors who are too busy watching Bitcoin.This could be the situation now with Litecoin and Dash, which have pushed steadily higher over the past month at a time when Bitcoin is losing momentum. Litecoin is up 39.70% over the past 30 days, while Dash is up 8.13% over that same time period. In contrast, Bitcoin is down 16.68%.What do all of these coins have in common?Both Litecoin and Dash are based on the same cryptocurrency technology used to create Bitcoin. While Bitcoin launched as the original cryptocurrency back in 2009, Litecoin launched two years later as a \"lite\" version of it, hence the name. The goal of Litecoin was simply to improve on what Bitcoin already offered in terms of faster, cheaper payments.The story is similar for Dash, which launched in 2014 as a fork of Litecoin. This means that the original blockchain developers behind Litecoin decided to split the main blockchain and name the new one Dash.The fact that all three cryptos are related is important because it means all three are based on roughly the same proof-of-work blockchain technology that relies on mining to create new blocks for the blockchain.This also means that all three of these coins undergo a process known as a \"halving\" on a schedule set by an algorithm. In a halving, the block reward for miners is cut by one-half. Bitcoin undergoes a halving every four years, as does Litecoin. Dash undergoes a halving once every 365 days, because the block reward is reduced by only 7.14%, not 50%.How to profit from the halvingHistorically, halving events have been very lucrative for traders and have always been very much anticipated by the crypto market. The easiest way to profit from these events is to buy anywhere from 12 to 15 months ahead of the next halving. Since the date of each halving is determined algorithmically, it is easy to pinpoint when this is going to happen for each coin. The next Bitcoin halving is March 2024, the next Litecoin halving is July 2023, and the next Dash halving is May 2023.Once you understand the timing of these halving events, it's easy to see why Litecoin and Dash both appear to be diverging from Bitcoin right now. If historical models hold, one would expect Dash and Litecoin to benefit first from their respective halving events, and Bitcoin to lag behind by at least several months. Moreover, since the Dash halving is not nearly as pronounced as the Litecoin halving (7.14% compared to 50%), one would also expect a greater rally in the price of Litecoin than in Dash, which is what we are seeing. Right now, traders are expecting that Litecoin could have a 200% price rally by the time of its next halving.More potential than Bitcoin, but for how long?For this reason, Litecoin and Dash could have more potential than Bitcoin over the near-term future. Crypto publications are already starting to talk about the \"pre-halving rally\" for Litecoin, which has only intensified the impact of this effect. Since the Bitcoin halving is not going to happen until 2024, it will likely trade sideways for the rest of this year and into early 2023. Thus, a very short-term window exists for Litecoin and Dash to outperform Bitcoin. At a time when much of the crypto market is deep in the red, this could be a sneaky opportunity to profit from both Litecoin and Dash.Over the long term, though, I'm still much more bullish on Bitcoin than on either Litecoin or Dash. For example, some traders are predicting that Bitcoin could rally to $63,000 by March 2024 as a result of investor anticipation of the next halving. If there is one cryptocurrency to buy and hold for the long term, it's Bitcoin. But if you are looking to pad your crypto portfolio by year-end, it could be worth a closer look at Litecoin and Dash.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964745000,"gmtCreate":1670215068201,"gmtModify":1676538322431,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Looking good&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Looking good&nbsp;","text":"$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964745000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964632247,"gmtCreate":1670129491489,"gmtModify":1676538308023,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BYD","listText":"BYD","text":"BYD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964632247","repostId":"2288925832","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288925832","pubTimestamp":1670121245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288925832?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-04 10:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288925832","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish inves","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0148afb1415d9966a462d316514fd0e2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Leading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish investors/weak holders to flee at its October lows. In contrast, NIO posted a 1M total return of 24.5%, as buying sentiments returned strongly to China&#39;s embattled pure-play BEV makers.</p><p>Notwithstanding, Chinese EV bears will point out that both stocks remain well below their starting point in 2022. Accordingly, XPEV&#39;s YTD total return of -80% suggests buyers have been decimated, while NIO posted a better YTD performance of -62%.</p><p>Hence, we believe it&#39;s opportune to update investors on whether the buying opportunity on the recent rally still has legs, as China seems to be progressively easing its COVID restrictions.</p><p>Our assessment indicates that one company has executed much better as China&#39;s economy worsened in 2022. China&#39;s stringent COVID restrictions and harsh property cooling measures have weakened its GDP growth significantly. Accordingly, China&#39;s manufacturing PMI also came below consensus estimates, behooving China to accelerate its reopening moves.</p><p>Coupled with heightened competition, higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weaker economy, NIO has proved its mettle against XPeng. However, both companies remain unprofitable. With a narrowed route toward external financing, given the current market conditions, we believe investors will likely focus on the company that has executed better, with clearer visibility toward reaching profitability.</p><p>We believe the competitive landscape would likely intensify further. Legacy OEMs such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) have telegraphed ambitious plans to assume EV leadership by 2025/26. In addition, China&#39;s NEV leader BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDY) has continued to penetrate the EV market further, consolidating its position as the global NEV leader (including hybrids) in Q3&#39;22, ahead of Tesla (TSLA).</p><p>Therefore, we urge investors to consider the business models and execution prowess of NIO and XPeng carefully as they take on profitable leading auto behemoths as they chart their path to profitability.</p><p>We discuss why we continue to put our bet in NIO as a potential multi-bagger speculative opportunity ahead of XPEV.</p><p>Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.</p><h2>Competition In China Has Intensified</h2><p>China&#39;s economic malaise has battered its consumer discretionary spending, including automobiles. Yet, China&#39;s leading NEV makers have made robust progress in 2022.</p><p>For instance, BYD delivered more than 230K of NEV in November, notching another monthly record, up nearly 153% YoY. Notably, BYD has continued to post consistent MoM gains since April 2022, corroborating the resilience of its highly vertically-integrated operating model.</p><p>Moreover, Volkswagen has continued to invest heavily in its prized Chinese market. General Motors have also stepped up on its endeavor, looking to introduce 15 EV models for the Chinese market by 2025.</p><p>Hence, we postulate that the competitive landscape in China could indicate that some unprofitable/less profitable upstarts could be squeezed out of the leading pack subsequently. With NIO and XPeng continuing to struggle for profitability, it&#39;s vital to assess which company could emerge as the stronger competitor to take on these behemoths.</p><p>Furthermore, China&#39;s NEV subsidies are due to be eliminated by 2023, even though Chinese media reported that there could be some revisions. Notwithstanding, it could neutralize/lessen a constructive tailwind that has driven sales over the past few years.</p><p>Therefore the market outlook remains uncertain while competition has intensified. As such, nothing short of excellent execution is required to navigate these challenges. And it&#39;s one that XPeng has fallen short in 2022.</p><h2>XPeng Restructures</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e462b6ef38ba6c0893c716ae23dcdc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPeng Vehicle margins % (Company filings)</span></p><p>Given XPeng&#39;s low vehicle margins operating model, it&#39;s imperative for the company to continue posting robust production and deliveries growth to benefit significantly from fixed costs leverage.</p><p>However, XPeng&#39;s massive Q3 deliveries disappointment highlighted the execution weakness in a challenging macro and supply chain environment, in which leaders BYD and NIO performed admirably.</p><p>With a vehicle margin of just 11.6% in Q3 (up from Q2&#39;s 9.1%), XPeng&#39;s profitability has improved QoQ.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e172d47aa15683ff6c89cf5c9e8dbd2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPeng Deliveries (Company filings)</span></p><p>However, the company posted deliveries growth of just 15% in FQ3; a massive downshift from FQ2&#39;s 98%. As such, we believe it triggered a rethinking of its strategies, leading the company to announce an organizational restructuring, as CEO He Xiaoping emphasized:</p><blockquote>Frankly, we&#39;re going through a very challenging period in pursuing our long-term goals. In response, we recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and implemented organizational restructure. As market competition intensifies, we&#39;ll sharpen our marketing to highlight the great value in our industry-leading smart and electrification technologies and further enhance our branding, sales, and service capabilities. (XPeng FQ3&#39;22 earnings call)</blockquote><p>Hence, we believe there&#39;s little doubt that the increasingly competitive landscape hammered XPeng&#39;s execution. Therefore, moving forward, we think it&#39;s better to watch the action from the sidelines unless you have a very high conviction in XPeng&#39;s management.</p><p>XPeng announced October and November deliveries of 5.1K and 5.81K, respectively. As such, the company needs to deliver about 9.59K of NEV (midpoint) in Q4, predicated on the ramp of its G9. XPeng emphasized: &#34;The Company expects that deliveries will significantly increase in December 2022 as G9&#39;s production ramp-up accelerates under normalized operating conditions.&#34;</p><p>We believe that XPEV&#39;s battering toward its October lows has likely reflected significant pessimism. But, we don&#39;t think the recent rally is sustainable, as its price action suggests a massive covering rally.</p><p>As such, we urge investors thinking of cutting exposure to leverage on the recent recovery to take some risks off the table and rotate.</p><h2>Rotate To NIO<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b388563a2b413a07256e586ffbaa59a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NIO Deliveries (Company filings)</span></p></h2><p>NIO posted 14.18K in NEV deliveries for November, up nearly 41% MoM. As such, NIO demonstrated that its premium EV strategy is working well, despite China&#39;s economic malaise.</p><p>While China&#39;s COVID restrictions have impacted its production cadence, we believe it could be less material moving forward as China progressively eases.</p><p>Hence, NIO should be able to focus primarily on its execution as it looks to deliver its Q4 guidance of 45.5K NEVs (midpoint). The company appears confident in its recent deliveries outlook as NIO emphasized: &#34;NIO will further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.&#34;</p><p>NIO CEO William Li also telegraphed recently why it&#39;s critical for NIO to remain deeply entrenched as one of China&#39;s leading NEV leaders, given intensifying competition. Li accentuated:</p><blockquote>If a company is squeezed into the second tier in the final round [of competition in 2024/25], it is basically impossible for it to catch up to the first tier if it wants to. You can only be a second-tier languishing, barely alive person. - CnEVPost</blockquote><p>Therefore, we believe it&#39;s no surprise that the timeline aligns well with the milestones indicated by the legacy OEMs makers as they transform into EV companies.</p><p>Don&#39;t assume these OEM makers are &#34;dead&#34; yet, as they invest profits from their ICE segments to take on unprofitable EV makers. The battle is far from over, and we believe only the fittest EV makers could survive the increasingly competitive landscape.</p><h2>Is NIO Or XPEV Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p><i>Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbee3aba450db5a7c84dee25b0094d59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPEV price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>The market had gotten XPEV spot on, knowing that it could face significant competitive pressures that could impact its operating model considerably.</p><p>As such, the market&#39;s battering from its June highs has likely reflected its positioning. Hence, the recent sharp rally from its October lows resembled a covering move from bearish investors taking profit and cutting exposure.</p><p>As such, we urge investors not to join this rally but consider taking the opportunity to take some risks off the table.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315a624b01e18068ea47037b78f4f8b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NIO price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>NIO&#39;s price action looks much more robust than XPEV, with no clear signs of a massive covering rally. Therefore, buyers are likely accumulating, trapping bearish investors at its long-term support and holding that defense line constructively.</p><p>Hence, we believe the opportunity for a mean-reversion rally for NIO is still attractive at these levels. XPEV investors who decide to cut exposure can consider rotating some exposure to NIO to take them toward the next stage of the competition in China&#39;s increasingly competitive EV market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-04 10:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4555":"新能源车","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2288925832","content_text":"ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish investors/weak holders to flee at its October lows. In contrast, NIO posted a 1M total return of 24.5%, as buying sentiments returned strongly to China's embattled pure-play BEV makers.Notwithstanding, Chinese EV bears will point out that both stocks remain well below their starting point in 2022. Accordingly, XPEV's YTD total return of -80% suggests buyers have been decimated, while NIO posted a better YTD performance of -62%.Hence, we believe it's opportune to update investors on whether the buying opportunity on the recent rally still has legs, as China seems to be progressively easing its COVID restrictions.Our assessment indicates that one company has executed much better as China's economy worsened in 2022. China's stringent COVID restrictions and harsh property cooling measures have weakened its GDP growth significantly. Accordingly, China's manufacturing PMI also came below consensus estimates, behooving China to accelerate its reopening moves.Coupled with heightened competition, higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weaker economy, NIO has proved its mettle against XPeng. However, both companies remain unprofitable. With a narrowed route toward external financing, given the current market conditions, we believe investors will likely focus on the company that has executed better, with clearer visibility toward reaching profitability.We believe the competitive landscape would likely intensify further. Legacy OEMs such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) have telegraphed ambitious plans to assume EV leadership by 2025/26. In addition, China's NEV leader BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDY) has continued to penetrate the EV market further, consolidating its position as the global NEV leader (including hybrids) in Q3'22, ahead of Tesla (TSLA).Therefore, we urge investors to consider the business models and execution prowess of NIO and XPeng carefully as they take on profitable leading auto behemoths as they chart their path to profitability.We discuss why we continue to put our bet in NIO as a potential multi-bagger speculative opportunity ahead of XPEV.Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.Competition In China Has IntensifiedChina's economic malaise has battered its consumer discretionary spending, including automobiles. Yet, China's leading NEV makers have made robust progress in 2022.For instance, BYD delivered more than 230K of NEV in November, notching another monthly record, up nearly 153% YoY. Notably, BYD has continued to post consistent MoM gains since April 2022, corroborating the resilience of its highly vertically-integrated operating model.Moreover, Volkswagen has continued to invest heavily in its prized Chinese market. General Motors have also stepped up on its endeavor, looking to introduce 15 EV models for the Chinese market by 2025.Hence, we postulate that the competitive landscape in China could indicate that some unprofitable/less profitable upstarts could be squeezed out of the leading pack subsequently. With NIO and XPeng continuing to struggle for profitability, it's vital to assess which company could emerge as the stronger competitor to take on these behemoths.Furthermore, China's NEV subsidies are due to be eliminated by 2023, even though Chinese media reported that there could be some revisions. Notwithstanding, it could neutralize/lessen a constructive tailwind that has driven sales over the past few years.Therefore the market outlook remains uncertain while competition has intensified. As such, nothing short of excellent execution is required to navigate these challenges. And it's one that XPeng has fallen short in 2022.XPeng RestructuresXPeng Vehicle margins % (Company filings)Given XPeng's low vehicle margins operating model, it's imperative for the company to continue posting robust production and deliveries growth to benefit significantly from fixed costs leverage.However, XPeng's massive Q3 deliveries disappointment highlighted the execution weakness in a challenging macro and supply chain environment, in which leaders BYD and NIO performed admirably.With a vehicle margin of just 11.6% in Q3 (up from Q2's 9.1%), XPeng's profitability has improved QoQ.XPeng Deliveries (Company filings)However, the company posted deliveries growth of just 15% in FQ3; a massive downshift from FQ2's 98%. As such, we believe it triggered a rethinking of its strategies, leading the company to announce an organizational restructuring, as CEO He Xiaoping emphasized:Frankly, we're going through a very challenging period in pursuing our long-term goals. In response, we recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and implemented organizational restructure. As market competition intensifies, we'll sharpen our marketing to highlight the great value in our industry-leading smart and electrification technologies and further enhance our branding, sales, and service capabilities. (XPeng FQ3'22 earnings call)Hence, we believe there's little doubt that the increasingly competitive landscape hammered XPeng's execution. Therefore, moving forward, we think it's better to watch the action from the sidelines unless you have a very high conviction in XPeng's management.XPeng announced October and November deliveries of 5.1K and 5.81K, respectively. As such, the company needs to deliver about 9.59K of NEV (midpoint) in Q4, predicated on the ramp of its G9. XPeng emphasized: \"The Company expects that deliveries will significantly increase in December 2022 as G9's production ramp-up accelerates under normalized operating conditions.\"We believe that XPEV's battering toward its October lows has likely reflected significant pessimism. But, we don't think the recent rally is sustainable, as its price action suggests a massive covering rally.As such, we urge investors thinking of cutting exposure to leverage on the recent recovery to take some risks off the table and rotate.Rotate To NIONIO Deliveries (Company filings)NIO posted 14.18K in NEV deliveries for November, up nearly 41% MoM. As such, NIO demonstrated that its premium EV strategy is working well, despite China's economic malaise.While China's COVID restrictions have impacted its production cadence, we believe it could be less material moving forward as China progressively eases.Hence, NIO should be able to focus primarily on its execution as it looks to deliver its Q4 guidance of 45.5K NEVs (midpoint). The company appears confident in its recent deliveries outlook as NIO emphasized: \"NIO will further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.\"NIO CEO William Li also telegraphed recently why it's critical for NIO to remain deeply entrenched as one of China's leading NEV leaders, given intensifying competition. Li accentuated:If a company is squeezed into the second tier in the final round [of competition in 2024/25], it is basically impossible for it to catch up to the first tier if it wants to. You can only be a second-tier languishing, barely alive person. - CnEVPostTherefore, we believe it's no surprise that the timeline aligns well with the milestones indicated by the legacy OEMs makers as they transform into EV companies.Don't assume these OEM makers are \"dead\" yet, as they invest profits from their ICE segments to take on unprofitable EV makers. The battle is far from over, and we believe only the fittest EV makers could survive the increasingly competitive landscape.Is NIO Or XPEV Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.XPEV price chart (weekly) (TradingView)The market had gotten XPEV spot on, knowing that it could face significant competitive pressures that could impact its operating model considerably.As such, the market's battering from its June highs has likely reflected its positioning. Hence, the recent sharp rally from its October lows resembled a covering move from bearish investors taking profit and cutting exposure.As such, we urge investors not to join this rally but consider taking the opportunity to take some risks off the table.NIO price chart (weekly) (TradingView)NIO's price action looks much more robust than XPEV, with no clear signs of a massive covering rally. Therefore, buyers are likely accumulating, trapping bearish investors at its long-term support and holding that defense line constructively.Hence, we believe the opportunity for a mean-reversion rally for NIO is still attractive at these levels. XPEV investors who decide to cut exposure can consider rotating some exposure to NIO to take them toward the next stage of the competition in China's increasingly competitive EV market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964151556,"gmtCreate":1670113738076,"gmtModify":1676538303277,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Time to buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Time to buy","text":"$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$ Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964151556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965446912,"gmtCreate":1670015849836,"gmtModify":1676538287874,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple wanna play governor?","listText":"Apple wanna play governor?","text":"Apple wanna play governor?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965446912","repostId":"1144035468","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144035468","pubTimestamp":1669969053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144035468?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-02 16:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Twitter Fight, Apple Blocks Coinbase Wallet Release on App Store","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144035468","media":"The Street","summary":"The controversy emerges at a time when Apple's App Store policies are under fire from CEOs of other ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>The controversy emerges at a time when Apple&#39;s App Store policies are under fire from CEOs of other major technology companies.</li></ul><p>Add <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a> to the list of companies recently expressing frustration with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>&#39;s App Store policies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a> CEO Daniel Ek, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a> CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and Twitter CEO Elon Musk have all made critical statements about the policies during the past week.</p><p>Ek says the App Store is a threat to the Internet&#39;s future because it denies users choice.</p><p>&#34;Apple offers the illusion of choice and gives developers the illusion of control,&#34; Ek wrote on Twitter.</p><p>&#34;How many more consumers will be denied choice?&#34; he asked. &#34;There&#39;s been a lot of talk. Talk is helpful but we need action.&#34;</p><p>Zuckerberg expressed frustration that Apple limits the apps in its App Store.</p><p>Musk&#39;s complaints specifically refer to the 30% fee that Apple applies to in-app sales and in-app purchases.</p><p>&#34;Did you know Apple puts a secret 30% tax on everything you buy through their App Store?&#34; he asked on Twitter. &#34;Apple has also threatened to withhold Twitter from its App Store, but won&#39;t tell us why.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Apple takes a 30% tax from app developers who make over $1 million through the App Store on an annual basis,&#34; replied @WatcherGuru. &#34;Apple&#39;s App Store is the equivalent to a 30% tax on the Internet.&#34;</p><h3>Apple Requires Coinbase to Disable NFT Trading</h3><p>Coinbase said on the morning of Dec. 1 that Coinbase Wallet users using iOS will find they are unable to send non-fungible tokens (NFTs).</p><p>The company announced this news in a series of tweets.</p><p>&#34;You might have noticed you can&#39;t send NFTs on Coinbase Wallet iOS anymore,&#34; it said on Twitter using @CoinbaseWallet. &#34;This is because Apple blocked our last app release until we disabled the feature.&#34;</p><p>The rest of the statements posted to Twitter by @CoinbaseWallet are as follows:</p><p>&#34;Apple’s claim is that the gas fees required to send NFTs need to be paid through their In-App Purchase system, so that they can collect 30% of the gas fee.&#34; (A gas fee, or transaction fee, is simply what a user is required to pay for using the blockchain. Once the gas fee is paid, users can transfer cryptos from one address to another.)</p><p>&#34;For anyone who understands how NFTs and blockchains work, this is clearly not possible. Apple’s proprietary In-App Purchase system does not support crypto so we couldn’t comply even if we tried.&#34;</p><p>&#34;This is akin to Apple trying to take a cut of fees for every email that gets sent over open Internet protocols.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The biggest impact from this policy change is on iPhone users that own NFTs -- if you hold an NFT in a wallet on an iPhone, Apple just made it a lot harder to transfer that NFT to other wallets, or gift it to friends or family.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Simply put, Apple has introduced new policies to protect their profits at the expense of consumer investment in NFTs and developer innovation across the crypto ecosystem.&#34;</p><p>&#34;We hope this is an oversight on Apple’s behalf and an inflection point for further conversations with the ecosystem.&#34;</p><h3>Apple Defends its 30% fee</h3><p>In 2020, a study funded by Apple defended the fee that is currently under scrutiny.</p><p>&#34;Our study shows that Apple’s App Store commission rate is similar in magnitude to the commission rates charged by many other app stores and digital content marketplaces,&#34; the study argued at the time. &#34;The commission rates charged by digital marketplaces most similar to the App Store, such as other app stores and video game digital marketplaces, are generally around 30%.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Marketplaces that distribute digital content such as videos, podcasts, eBooks, and audiobooks generally charge commission rates of 30% or more. Commission rates charged by e-commerce marketplaces vary by industry but sometimes exceed 30%,&#34; it continued. &#34;Many sellers currently sell (or previously sold) their goods through brick-and-mortar stores and marketplaces. We find that sellers generally earn a substantially lower share of total revenue from the distribution through brick-and-mortar stores and marketplaces than through digital marketplaces such as the Apple App Store.&#34;</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Twitter Fight, Apple Blocks Coinbase Wallet Release on App Store</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Twitter Fight, Apple Blocks Coinbase Wallet Release on App Store\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-02 16:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/apple-blocks-coinbase-wallet-release-over-app-store-nft-dispute><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The controversy emerges at a time when Apple's App Store policies are under fire from CEOs of other major technology companies.Add Coinbase to the list of companies recently expressing frustration ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/apple-blocks-coinbase-wallet-release-over-app-store-nft-dispute\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","AAPL":"苹果","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/apple-blocks-coinbase-wallet-release-over-app-store-nft-dispute","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144035468","content_text":"The controversy emerges at a time when Apple's App Store policies are under fire from CEOs of other major technology companies.Add Coinbase to the list of companies recently expressing frustration with Apple's App Store policies.Spotify CEO Daniel Ek, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and Twitter CEO Elon Musk have all made critical statements about the policies during the past week.Ek says the App Store is a threat to the Internet's future because it denies users choice.\"Apple offers the illusion of choice and gives developers the illusion of control,\" Ek wrote on Twitter.\"How many more consumers will be denied choice?\" he asked. \"There's been a lot of talk. Talk is helpful but we need action.\"Zuckerberg expressed frustration that Apple limits the apps in its App Store.Musk's complaints specifically refer to the 30% fee that Apple applies to in-app sales and in-app purchases.\"Did you know Apple puts a secret 30% tax on everything you buy through their App Store?\" he asked on Twitter. \"Apple has also threatened to withhold Twitter from its App Store, but won't tell us why.\"\"Apple takes a 30% tax from app developers who make over $1 million through the App Store on an annual basis,\" replied @WatcherGuru. \"Apple's App Store is the equivalent to a 30% tax on the Internet.\"Apple Requires Coinbase to Disable NFT TradingCoinbase said on the morning of Dec. 1 that Coinbase Wallet users using iOS will find they are unable to send non-fungible tokens (NFTs).The company announced this news in a series of tweets.\"You might have noticed you can't send NFTs on Coinbase Wallet iOS anymore,\" it said on Twitter using @CoinbaseWallet. \"This is because Apple blocked our last app release until we disabled the feature.\"The rest of the statements posted to Twitter by @CoinbaseWallet are as follows:\"Apple’s claim is that the gas fees required to send NFTs need to be paid through their In-App Purchase system, so that they can collect 30% of the gas fee.\" (A gas fee, or transaction fee, is simply what a user is required to pay for using the blockchain. Once the gas fee is paid, users can transfer cryptos from one address to another.)\"For anyone who understands how NFTs and blockchains work, this is clearly not possible. Apple’s proprietary In-App Purchase system does not support crypto so we couldn’t comply even if we tried.\"\"This is akin to Apple trying to take a cut of fees for every email that gets sent over open Internet protocols.\"\"The biggest impact from this policy change is on iPhone users that own NFTs -- if you hold an NFT in a wallet on an iPhone, Apple just made it a lot harder to transfer that NFT to other wallets, or gift it to friends or family.\"\"Simply put, Apple has introduced new policies to protect their profits at the expense of consumer investment in NFTs and developer innovation across the crypto ecosystem.\"\"We hope this is an oversight on Apple’s behalf and an inflection point for further conversations with the ecosystem.\"Apple Defends its 30% feeIn 2020, a study funded by Apple defended the fee that is currently under scrutiny.\"Our study shows that Apple’s App Store commission rate is similar in magnitude to the commission rates charged by many other app stores and digital content marketplaces,\" the study argued at the time. \"The commission rates charged by digital marketplaces most similar to the App Store, such as other app stores and video game digital marketplaces, are generally around 30%.\"\"Marketplaces that distribute digital content such as videos, podcasts, eBooks, and audiobooks generally charge commission rates of 30% or more. Commission rates charged by e-commerce marketplaces vary by industry but sometimes exceed 30%,\" it continued. \"Many sellers currently sell (or previously sold) their goods through brick-and-mortar stores and marketplaces. We find that sellers generally earn a substantially lower share of total revenue from the distribution through brick-and-mortar stores and marketplaces than through digital marketplaces such as the Apple App Store.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965614813,"gmtCreate":1669943912033,"gmtModify":1676538274785,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Everyone is bullish&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Everyone is bullish&nbsp;","text":"$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ Everyone is bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965614813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962672645,"gmtCreate":1669774770987,"gmtModify":1676538240608,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Best of FAANG&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Best of FAANG&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Best of FAANG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962672645","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962069799,"gmtCreate":1669680221612,"gmtModify":1676538221537,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Looks like many sellers in queue&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Looks like many sellers in queue&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Looks like many sellers in queue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962069799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966631677,"gmtCreate":1669514484100,"gmtModify":1676538203280,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alt coin use cases exploded....","listText":"Alt coin use cases exploded....","text":"Alt coin use cases exploded....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966631677","repostId":"1146001737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146001737","pubTimestamp":1669513037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146001737?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-27 09:37","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Litecoin And 4 Other Cryptos That Rallied 20% Or More This Week Even As Bitcoin Flatlined","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146001737","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSSome DeFei tokens stood out with stellar gains this week.It could be a harbinger of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>ZINGER KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Some DeFei tokens stood out with stellar gains this week.</li><li>It could be a harbinger of interest returning to the crypto space after the FTX fiasco.</li></ul><p>The cryptocurrency market remained subdued in the past week, despite thestock market notching gains.In addition to market-wide concerns about the economy and interest rates, the crypto space is stymied by the developments in the FTX saga.</p><p>Notwithstanding credibility concerns and major cryptos flatlining, some digital currencies ran up sharply this week. Here are the ones that fetched about 20% returns or more:</p><p><b>1. Huobi Token:</b>The star crypto performer of the week has been the <b>Huobi Token</b>. It is the native token of the cryptocurrency exchange Huobi Global and a decentralized digital asset based on the <b>Ethereum</b> blockchain. Its value is in part attributable to the reputation of the Huobi exchange.</p><p>The seven-day gain of the token is a whopping 58.79% and on Saturday it was advancing about 20% to $7.21.</p><p><b>2. Curve DAO Token:</b> Another token that had a nice run during the week was <b>Curve DAO Token</b>. Curve, a decentralized exchange for stablecoins launched in January 2020, unveiled a decentralized autonomous organization, or DAO, in August, with CRV as its in-house token.</p><p>The token rose over 34% for the week and was advancing about 6% on Saturday.</p><p><b>3. Litecoin:Litecoin</b>, a decentralized peer-to-peer cryptocurrency and open-source project, was launched in October 2011. It is one of the earliest altcoins.</p><p>Litecoin jumped about 25% for the week and was flat on Saturday.</p><p><b>4. Dash:Dash</b> is also an open-sourced crypto and an altcoin forked from <b>Bitcoin</b>. It is also a decentralized autonomous organization run by a subset of its users.</p><p>Dash advanced about 20% for the week and was rising about 1% on Saturday.</p><p>The common thread running across the gainers is that all are decentralized tokens, which means they are decentralized applications that run on blockchains with smart contracts.</p><p>The steep gains of these cryptos contrast with that of the apex currency Bitcoin, which is down about 0.16% over the past seven days. Ethereum, the second-most traded crypto, has gained about 1.3% for the week. Among the top 10 cryptos, <b>BNB</b> and <b>Dogecoin</b> were standout gainers, both rising over 4% in the past 24 hours.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Litecoin And 4 Other Cryptos That Rallied 20% Or More This Week Even As Bitcoin Flatlined</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLitecoin And 4 Other Cryptos That Rallied 20% Or More This Week Even As Bitcoin Flatlined\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/11/29864949/litecoin-and-4-other-cryptos-that-rallied-20-or-more-this-week-even-as-bitcoin-flatlined><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSSome DeFei tokens stood out with stellar gains this week.It could be a harbinger of interest returning to the crypto space after the FTX fiasco.The cryptocurrency market remained ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/11/29864949/litecoin-and-4-other-cryptos-that-rallied-20-or-more-this-week-even-as-bitcoin-flatlined\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/11/29864949/litecoin-and-4-other-cryptos-that-rallied-20-or-more-this-week-even-as-bitcoin-flatlined","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146001737","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSSome DeFei tokens stood out with stellar gains this week.It could be a harbinger of interest returning to the crypto space after the FTX fiasco.The cryptocurrency market remained subdued in the past week, despite thestock market notching gains.In addition to market-wide concerns about the economy and interest rates, the crypto space is stymied by the developments in the FTX saga.Notwithstanding credibility concerns and major cryptos flatlining, some digital currencies ran up sharply this week. Here are the ones that fetched about 20% returns or more:1. Huobi Token:The star crypto performer of the week has been the Huobi Token. It is the native token of the cryptocurrency exchange Huobi Global and a decentralized digital asset based on the Ethereum blockchain. Its value is in part attributable to the reputation of the Huobi exchange.The seven-day gain of the token is a whopping 58.79% and on Saturday it was advancing about 20% to $7.21.2. Curve DAO Token: Another token that had a nice run during the week was Curve DAO Token. Curve, a decentralized exchange for stablecoins launched in January 2020, unveiled a decentralized autonomous organization, or DAO, in August, with CRV as its in-house token.The token rose over 34% for the week and was advancing about 6% on Saturday.3. Litecoin:Litecoin, a decentralized peer-to-peer cryptocurrency and open-source project, was launched in October 2011. It is one of the earliest altcoins.Litecoin jumped about 25% for the week and was flat on Saturday.4. Dash:Dash is also an open-sourced crypto and an altcoin forked from Bitcoin. It is also a decentralized autonomous organization run by a subset of its users.Dash advanced about 20% for the week and was rising about 1% on Saturday.The common thread running across the gainers is that all are decentralized tokens, which means they are decentralized applications that run on blockchains with smart contracts.The steep gains of these cryptos contrast with that of the apex currency Bitcoin, which is down about 0.16% over the past seven days. Ethereum, the second-most traded crypto, has gained about 1.3% for the week. Among the top 10 cryptos, BNB and Dogecoin were standout gainers, both rising over 4% in the past 24 hours.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966633683,"gmtCreate":1669514394442,"gmtModify":1676538203248,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One more down leg in spring?","listText":"One more down leg in spring?","text":"One more down leg in spring?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966633683","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110767793?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968076287,"gmtCreate":1669084577750,"gmtModify":1676538149506,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Hmmmm","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Hmmmm","text":"$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968076287","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9938476724,"gmtCreate":1662671914868,"gmtModify":1676537112042,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Apple did not increase price despite higher costs. &nbsp;With the big data that they have, AAPL is expecting bearish scenarios coming soon (in a world scale). &nbsp;Having said the above, AAPL will perform better than most because of their naturally diversified nature of their products in geographic and business.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Apple did not increase price despite higher costs. &nbsp;With the big data that they have, AAPL is expecting bearish scenarios coming soon (in a world scale). &nbsp;Having said the above, AAPL will perform better than most because of their naturally diversified nature of their products in geographic and business.","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Apple did not increase price despite higher costs. With the big data that they have, AAPL is expecting bearish scenarios coming soon (in a world scale). Having said the above, AAPL will perform better than most because of their naturally diversified nature of their products in geographic and business.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938476724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019114349,"gmtCreate":1648558351532,"gmtModify":1676534353573,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think Tesla will rally judging from the huge following, however this time itis not going to \"fly\". &nbsp;When more andmore Teslas queue up to get a re-charge, some might start looking for alternatives (like battery swapping technology - like NIO). &nbsp;consolation by rival EV&nbsp;companies may provide alternatives. &nbsp;Catalyst may be new product line.","listText":"I think Tesla will rally judging from the huge following, however this time itis not going to \"fly\". &nbsp;When more andmore Teslas queue up to get a re-charge, some might start looking for alternatives (like battery swapping technology - like NIO). &nbsp;consolation by rival EV&nbsp;companies may provide alternatives. &nbsp;Catalyst may be new product line.","text":"I think Tesla will rally judging from the huge following, however this time itis not going to \"fly\". When more andmore Teslas queue up to get a re-charge, some might start looking for alternatives (like battery swapping technology - like NIO). consolation by rival EV companies may provide alternatives. Catalyst may be new product line.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019114349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274761348791","authorId":"3479274761348791","name":"JONESTea","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Do you think NiO has the ability to challenge Tesla?","text":"Do you think NiO has the ability to challenge Tesla?","html":"Do you think NiO has the ability to challenge Tesla?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165293931,"gmtCreate":1624144750423,"gmtModify":1703829251419,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165293931","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120152113,"gmtCreate":1624316717632,"gmtModify":1703833083899,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for the split&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for the split&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for the split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120152113","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3571959390768435","authorId":"3571959390768435","name":"stormlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80629ef9648273c0d6465aee66dbd98a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Comment & like pls","text":"Comment & like pls","html":"Comment & like pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813072182,"gmtCreate":1630117173846,"gmtModify":1676530228887,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla wants to be everything electric.Mankind cannot live without it.","listText":"Tesla wants to be everything electric.Mankind cannot live without it.","text":"Tesla wants to be everything electric.Mankind cannot live without it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813072182","repostId":"1165379113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165379113","pubTimestamp":1630075265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165379113?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165379113","media":"Barrons","summary":"A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energ","content":"<p>A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under scrutiny after failing in a February winter storm.</p>\n<p>Tesla Energy Ventures, a subsidiary of Tesla formed in late July, wants to sell power directly to customers as a retail electricity provider, according to an August 16 filing with the Texas Public Utility Commission.</p>\n<p>Shares in Tesla were 0.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, outpacing a rise in futures for the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;index, of which Tesla is a component.</p>\n<p>Tesla also intends to build two massive utility-scale batteries to serve power companies in the state, according to Texas Monthly,which first reported the news&nbsp;on Thursday and said that the filing could be approved by November.</p>\n<p>One of those batteries would reportedly be located at a gigafactory outside Austin, where the Cybertruck and Model Y SUV are slated to be built, with another located outside Houston,based on a report from Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Texas’ deregulated power grid includes well over 100 companies selling to consumers. The state’s power system came under the spotlight this winter, when&nbsp;a February storm&nbsp;left millions without electricity for several days.</p>\n<p>Tesla hoped to enter the Texas power market earlier, before the widespread blackouts in February, according to the Texas Monthly report.</p>\n<p>The company has a history of building utility-scale power storage, with developments in California and Australia, but becoming an electricity retailer in Texas would be a significant milestone in the expansion of Tesla’s energy division.</p>\n<p>“I can’t emphasize enough, I think long term, Tesla Energy will be of roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk told investors last summer, after the company’s second-quarter earnings in July 2020.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-27 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165379113","content_text":"A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under scrutiny after failing in a February winter storm.\nTesla Energy Ventures, a subsidiary of Tesla formed in late July, wants to sell power directly to customers as a retail electricity provider, according to an August 16 filing with the Texas Public Utility Commission.\nShares in Tesla were 0.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, outpacing a rise in futures for the Nasdaq 100 index, of which Tesla is a component.\nTesla also intends to build two massive utility-scale batteries to serve power companies in the state, according to Texas Monthly,which first reported the news on Thursday and said that the filing could be approved by November.\nOne of those batteries would reportedly be located at a gigafactory outside Austin, where the Cybertruck and Model Y SUV are slated to be built, with another located outside Houston,based on a report from Bloomberg.\nTexas’ deregulated power grid includes well over 100 companies selling to consumers. The state’s power system came under the spotlight this winter, when a February storm left millions without electricity for several days.\nTesla hoped to enter the Texas power market earlier, before the widespread blackouts in February, according to the Texas Monthly report.\nThe company has a history of building utility-scale power storage, with developments in California and Australia, but becoming an electricity retailer in Texas would be a significant milestone in the expansion of Tesla’s energy division.\n“I can’t emphasize enough, I think long term, Tesla Energy will be of roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk told investors last summer, after the company’s second-quarter earnings in July 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053414465,"gmtCreate":1654570283558,"gmtModify":1676535471243,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see this as a \"planned\" recruitment for bag holders. &nbsp;Time it back to when they announced the stock split, insider already knew of what is coming....","listText":"I see this as a \"planned\" recruitment for bag holders. &nbsp;Time it back to when they announced the stock split, insider already knew of what is coming....","text":"I see this as a \"planned\" recruitment for bag holders. Time it back to when they announced the stock split, insider already knew of what is coming....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053414465","repostId":"1156277271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156277271","pubTimestamp":1654561042,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156277271?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-07 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Price Prediction After the Split: Where Will AMZN Go From Here?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156277271","media":"investorplace","summary":"Amazon(AMZN) has enacted its highly anticipated 20-for-1 stock split.AMZN stock is cheap at under $1","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Amazon</b>(<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) has enacted its highly anticipated 20-for-1 stock split.</li><li>AMZN stock is cheap at under $125 currently, but experts aren&#39;t worried.</li><li>Investors now have an opportunity to own shares before Amazon rises again.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63172eb7ac4af60360c26572dd0f690c\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com</p><p>The summer of stock splits is off to a good start. Last Friday, <b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) enacted its 20-for-1 stock split.</p><p>Currently, AMZN stock trades at just under $125 per share. That’s a much lower price from where it closed before the split. In fact, this is Amazon’slowest level in 25 years, although experts remain unworried. Each time shares of Amazon have split, they have come back stronger. Typically, stock splits are enacted to make shares of a given company more accessible for investors.</p><p><i>InvestorPlace</i>contributor Chris Tyler says buying Amazon stock is “anything but a split decision” now. But Tyler isn’t the only voice calling this a buying opportunity. One expert in particular is<i>quite bullish</i>on shares.</p><h2>AMZN Stock After the Split</h2><p>David Wagner is a portfolio manager atinvestment advisor firm Aptus Capital Advisors. Wagner is also an AMZN shareholder in Aptus exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Following the split, Wagner shared his insights in an email to<i>InvestorPlace</i>:</p><blockquote>“For arguably the first time in 20 years, Amazon has significant excess capacity, and we expect Retail margins to improve from recent lows as utilization scales. An uncertain consumer outlook adds risk, but with [e-commerce] at 15-20% penetration of Retail, y/y [e-commerce] growth trends likely bottoming, and the company seemingly cost focused from here, we see Amazon as well positioned for resumption of [e-commerce] penetration growth.”</blockquote><p>That isn’t the only positive mark Wagner sees for AMZN stock, either. “[T]his stock tends to outperform well when its harvesting instead of investing,” the analyst adds. “And right now, it’s finally harvesting.”</p><p>Wagner does note that stock splits aren’t a guaranteed magic pill to maximize returns for investors. However, he says that “splits lately have been a source of relative alpha.” The analyst and his firm continue to regard AMZN stock with favor, although Aptus would be willing to “pare back” if the share price grew to exceed $150.</p><h2>The Road Ahead for Amazon</h2><p>Stock splits don’t instantly create value for a company. However, they can certainly prove beneficial to investors.</p><p>Back in 2020, <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) announced a stock split,sending shares up 80%between the announcement and actual split date. That type of success has compelled Amazon and otherhigh-growth tech companies to split sharesas well.</p><p>AMZN stock may indeed reach $150 down the line. For now, though, shares are at a great price for small-scale investors looking to buy into the tech behemoth.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Price Prediction After the Split: Where Will AMZN Go From Here?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Price Prediction After the Split: Where Will AMZN Go From Here?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-07 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/06/amazon-stock-price-prediction-after-the-split-where-will-amzn-go-from-here/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon(AMZN) has enacted its highly anticipated 20-for-1 stock split.AMZN stock is cheap at under $125 currently, but experts aren't worried.Investors now have an opportunity to own shares before ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/amazon-stock-price-prediction-after-the-split-where-will-amzn-go-from-here/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/amazon-stock-price-prediction-after-the-split-where-will-amzn-go-from-here/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156277271","content_text":"Amazon(AMZN) has enacted its highly anticipated 20-for-1 stock split.AMZN stock is cheap at under $125 currently, but experts aren't worried.Investors now have an opportunity to own shares before Amazon rises again.Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.comThe summer of stock splits is off to a good start. Last Friday, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) enacted its 20-for-1 stock split.Currently, AMZN stock trades at just under $125 per share. That’s a much lower price from where it closed before the split. In fact, this is Amazon’slowest level in 25 years, although experts remain unworried. Each time shares of Amazon have split, they have come back stronger. Typically, stock splits are enacted to make shares of a given company more accessible for investors.InvestorPlacecontributor Chris Tyler says buying Amazon stock is “anything but a split decision” now. But Tyler isn’t the only voice calling this a buying opportunity. One expert in particular isquite bullishon shares.AMZN Stock After the SplitDavid Wagner is a portfolio manager atinvestment advisor firm Aptus Capital Advisors. Wagner is also an AMZN shareholder in Aptus exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Following the split, Wagner shared his insights in an email toInvestorPlace:“For arguably the first time in 20 years, Amazon has significant excess capacity, and we expect Retail margins to improve from recent lows as utilization scales. An uncertain consumer outlook adds risk, but with [e-commerce] at 15-20% penetration of Retail, y/y [e-commerce] growth trends likely bottoming, and the company seemingly cost focused from here, we see Amazon as well positioned for resumption of [e-commerce] penetration growth.”That isn’t the only positive mark Wagner sees for AMZN stock, either. “[T]his stock tends to outperform well when its harvesting instead of investing,” the analyst adds. “And right now, it’s finally harvesting.”Wagner does note that stock splits aren’t a guaranteed magic pill to maximize returns for investors. However, he says that “splits lately have been a source of relative alpha.” The analyst and his firm continue to regard AMZN stock with favor, although Aptus would be willing to “pare back” if the share price grew to exceed $150.The Road Ahead for AmazonStock splits don’t instantly create value for a company. However, they can certainly prove beneficial to investors.Back in 2020, Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) announced a stock split,sending shares up 80%between the announcement and actual split date. That type of success has compelled Amazon and otherhigh-growth tech companies to split sharesas well.AMZN stock may indeed reach $150 down the line. For now, though, shares are at a great price for small-scale investors looking to buy into the tech behemoth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966633683,"gmtCreate":1669514394442,"gmtModify":1676538203248,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One more down leg in spring?","listText":"One more down leg in spring?","text":"One more down leg in spring?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966633683","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110767793?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969888898,"gmtCreate":1668400287014,"gmtModify":1676538050678,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Centralised exchange failure... decentralised seems ok....","listText":"Centralised exchange failure... decentralised seems ok....","text":"Centralised exchange failure... decentralised seems ok....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969888898","repostId":"2283144175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2283144175","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668383535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2283144175?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-14 07:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"At Least $1 Billion of Client Funds Missing at Failed Crypto Firm FTX","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283144175","media":"Reuters","summary":"FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sourcesBankm","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sources</li><li>Bankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sources</li><li>Spreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sources</li><li>Executives set up book-keeping &#34;back door&#34; that thwarted red flags - sources</li><li>Whereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The exchange&#39;s founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried&#39;s trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.</p><p>A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.</p><p>While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.</p><p>The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company&#39;s finances by top staff.</p><p>Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.</p><p>In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he &#34;disagreed with the characterization&#34; of the $10 billion transfer.</p><p>&#34;We didn&#39;t secretly transfer,&#34; he said. &#34;We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,&#34; he added, without elaborating.</p><p>Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: &#34;???&#34;</p><p>FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.</p><p>In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was &#34;piecing together&#34; what had happened at FTX. &#34;I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week,&#34; he wrote. &#34;I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play.&#34;</p><p>At the heart of FTX&#39;s problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.</p><p>Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX&#39;s digital token, worth at least $580 million, &#34;due to recent revelations.&#34; Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda&#39;s $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.</p><p>That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX&#39;s shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX&#39;s finances said.</p><p>Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.</p><p>Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company&#39;s regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.</p><p>The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda&#39;s assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don&#39;t know what became of it.</p><p>In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a &#34;backdoor&#34; in FTX&#39;s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.</p><p>They said the &#34;backdoor&#34; allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company&#39;s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.</p><p>In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a &#34;backdoor&#34;.</p><p>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com&#39;s handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.</p><p>FTX&#39;s bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.</p><p>The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX&#39;s collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.</p><p>On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>At Least $1 Billion of Client Funds Missing at Failed Crypto Firm FTX</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAt Least $1 Billion of Client Funds Missing at Failed Crypto Firm FTX\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-14 07:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sources</li><li>Bankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sources</li><li>Spreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sources</li><li>Executives set up book-keeping &#34;back door&#34; that thwarted red flags - sources</li><li>Whereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The exchange&#39;s founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried&#39;s trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.</p><p>A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.</p><p>While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.</p><p>The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company&#39;s finances by top staff.</p><p>Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.</p><p>In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he &#34;disagreed with the characterization&#34; of the $10 billion transfer.</p><p>&#34;We didn&#39;t secretly transfer,&#34; he said. &#34;We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,&#34; he added, without elaborating.</p><p>Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: &#34;???&#34;</p><p>FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.</p><p>In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was &#34;piecing together&#34; what had happened at FTX. &#34;I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week,&#34; he wrote. &#34;I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play.&#34;</p><p>At the heart of FTX&#39;s problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.</p><p>Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX&#39;s digital token, worth at least $580 million, &#34;due to recent revelations.&#34; Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda&#39;s $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.</p><p>That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX&#39;s shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX&#39;s finances said.</p><p>Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.</p><p>Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company&#39;s regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.</p><p>The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda&#39;s assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don&#39;t know what became of it.</p><p>In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a &#34;backdoor&#34; in FTX&#39;s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.</p><p>They said the &#34;backdoor&#34; allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company&#39;s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.</p><p>In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a &#34;backdoor&#34;.</p><p>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com&#39;s handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.</p><p>FTX&#39;s bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.</p><p>The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX&#39;s collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.</p><p>On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2283144175","content_text":"FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sourcesBankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sourcesSpreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sourcesExecutives set up book-keeping \"back door\" that thwarted red flags - sourcesWhereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources(Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.The exchange's founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried's trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company's finances by top staff.Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he \"disagreed with the characterization\" of the $10 billion transfer.\"We didn't secretly transfer,\" he said. \"We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,\" he added, without elaborating.Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: \"???\"FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was \"piecing together\" what had happened at FTX. \"I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week,\" he wrote. \"I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play.\"At the heart of FTX's problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX's digital token, worth at least $580 million, \"due to recent revelations.\" Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda's $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX's shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX's finances said.Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company's regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda's assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don't know what became of it.In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a \"backdoor\" in FTX's book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.They said the \"backdoor\" allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company's financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a \"backdoor\".The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com's handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.FTX's bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become one of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX's collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983774378,"gmtCreate":1666330559395,"gmtModify":1676537742500,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch $198...the price institutions bought prior tosplit...strong support here","listText":"Watch $198...the price institutions bought prior tosplit...strong support here","text":"Watch $198...the price institutions bought prior tosplit...strong support here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983774378","repostId":"1169635104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169635104","pubTimestamp":1666336620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169635104?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-21 15:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Buy The Dip - A Contrarian View On Q3","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169635104","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla stock is down 6.25% after the company reported slightly worse-than-expected Q3 results.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Tesla stock is down 6.25% after the company reported slightly worse-than-expected Q3 results.</li><li>I am not convinced that the move is reasonable, or sustainable.</li><li>Firstly, investors should consider that Q3 delivery numbers - which were presented a few weeks earlier - indicated already a challenging environment.</li><li>Secondly, Tesla&#39;s Q3 results were actually not that bad with automotive revenues jumping by 28% quarter over quarter, and 56% year over year.</li><li>Thirdly, Tesla is clearly still a high-growth company. So, trading TSLA shares based on one quarter might not be the best strategy for (long-term) investors.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> stock is down 6.25% (after-hours trading reference) after the company reported slightly worse-than-expected Q3 results. But I am not convinced that the move is reasonable or sustainable.</p><p>Firstly, investors should consider that Q3 delivery numbers - which were presented a few weeks earlier - indicated already a challenging environment. And the respective headwinds have arguably been priced in, given that the stock is down by about 20% since the news. Accordingly, the stock price reaction following Q3 seems more like a mechanical response to headlines, than to changes in fundamental value.</p><p>Secondly, Tesla&#39;s Q3 results were actually not that bad, with automotive revenues jumping by 28% quarter over quarter.</p><p>Thirdly, Tesla is clearly still a high-growth company. So, trading TSLA shares based on one quarter might not be the best strategy for (long-term) investors.</p><p>Following my previous analysis that Tesla&#39;s fair implied value per share should be around $367, I remain &#39;Buy&#39; rated and see the 6% dip as an enhanced buying opportunity.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Q3 Results</h3><p>Personally, I disagree with the market consensus that Tesla&#39;s Q3 results are bad. From July to end of September, Tesla generated total revenues of $18.69 billion, which compares to $12.06 billion one year prior, and to $14.6 billion in Q2 2022. Thus, Tesla managed to increase revenues by 55% year over year and 28% quarter over quarter. What other company can post such results amidst a clearly slowing global economy?</p><p>Net income attributable to shareholders surged 103% year over year to $3.29 billion for the September quarter ($0.95/share). Free cash flow jumped even more, by $148%. I can&#39;t stress enough that these excellent numbers should be put in relation to the current macro environment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8fbd3d4d76ba840c7552495efd617d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q3 presentation</span></p><p>Moreover, investors should note that Tesla&#39;s growth is high-quality growth, driven by (1) increased volume, (2) higher average selling prices, and (3) non-OEM manufacturing business initiatives. Meanwhile, FX headwinds are estimated to have impacted the business by $250 million in Q3.</p><h3>Growth Outlook Remains Bright</h3><p>Tesla&#39;s growth outlook clearly remains strong: In the Q3 earnings presentation, the company confirmed that over a &#39;multi-year period&#39;, growth is estimated to touch 50% CAGR. Moreover, Tesla continues to affirm that growth challenges remain exclusively related to supply constraints, naming &#39;equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency, and supply chain stability&#39; as the key factors for continued high-growth.</p><p>During the analyst call, Musk said:</p><blockquote>I can&#39;t emphasise enough we have excellent demand and we expect to sell every car we can make as far in the future as we can see.</blockquote><p>Tesla clearly also has the cash to fund expansion. By end of the September quarter, Tesla had $21.1 billion of cash and cash equivalents (including short-term investments), and generated about $3.3 billion of free cash flow during the quarter.</p><p>The EV maker also said that &#39;Tesla Semi&#39; is expected to deliver first units by end of December 2022 and industrialization for the &#39;Cybertruck&#39; is &#39;making progress&#39;.</p><h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26fc3cf7e705d2413681402277f922a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q3 presentation</span></p>Buybacks On The Horizon?</h3><p>Going into Q3 earnings, some analysts speculated that Tesla could soon announce a share-buyback program - the company&#39;s first effort to distribute value back to shareholders. In the analyst call, Musk confirmed that the company &#39;generally believes a buyback makes sense&#39; and commented that a buyback program in the range between $5 billion and $10 billion could be likely, even if conditions worsen going into Q3. However, nothing official has been announced yet.</p><h3>Thoughts On Valuation</h3><p>Tesla is clearly trading at a premium valuation - this is no secret. Post Q3, the carmaker is valued at a x8 EV/Sales and x46 EV/EBIT. This implies a valuation premium of about x2 - x3 to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p>But accounting for Tesla&#39;s future outlook, an analyst could argue that the valuation premium is justified. With regard to growth, Tesla is clearly outperforming peers and the broad market. But also profitability is strong, despite the growth expensing: Tesla&#39;s operating profitability is almost double the respective metric for peers and now also higher than the respective metric for the S&amp;P 500. Moreover, Tesla&#39;s metrics are still up trending, supported by higher production efficiency and software related profits:</p><p>while we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing an operations, over time, we expect our hardware related profits to be accompanied with an acceleration of software related profits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b26f12a7c9bce7001733d1c89090a5b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Personally, I see no reason to change the long-term business outlook for Tesla post-Q3. And accordingly, I continue to believe that Tesla should be valued at about $367/share - with clear upside skew for the sensitivity analysis. My base case remains anchored on 10 million car unit sales by 2030, an ASP of $65,000, a 15.5% net margin, and 20% of software sales as a percentage of car sales revenues.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a525bc43fbbd45ac4d5bcb8c7c36ad3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author&#39;s Assumptions and Calculations</span></p><ul><li>Upside case $980/share +325% gain</li><li>Downside case $96/share -70% loss</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f30716f2e05143de616e48c5a4ad97d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author&#39;s Assumptions and Calculations</span></p><p>Risks</p><p>As I see it, there has been no major risk-updated since I last covered Tesla stock. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:</p><p>Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock&#39;s growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla&#39;s share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla&#39;s beta vs the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla&#39;s fundamental outlook remains unchanged.</p><p>Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like &#34;other&#34; smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla&#39;s supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Tesla stock is down by about 50% YTD (including post-Q3 after-hours trading), and I don&#39;t deny that some of the price depreciation has been necessary to give investors an improved risk/reward setup. But personally, I do not see how the 6.25% sell-off post Q3 is a value trade. In my opinion, it looks more like a mechanical response to negative news headlines surrounding Tesla&#39;s Q3 results.</p><p>But personally, I do not think Tesla&#39;s Q3 results were bad. And I surely do not see any change in the long-term outlook for Musk&#39;s ambitions with the EV maker. Accordingly, I view the &#39;dip&#39; as an enhanced investment opportunity and reiterate my &#39;Buy&#39; rating on TSLA stock.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Buy The Dip - A Contrarian View On Q3</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Buy The Dip - A Contrarian View On Q3\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-21 15:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547775-tesla-buy-the-dip-q3-contrarian-view><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla stock is down 6.25% after the company reported slightly worse-than-expected Q3 results.I am not convinced that the move is reasonable, or sustainable.Firstly, investors should consider ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547775-tesla-buy-the-dip-q3-contrarian-view\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547775-tesla-buy-the-dip-q3-contrarian-view","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169635104","content_text":"SummaryTesla stock is down 6.25% after the company reported slightly worse-than-expected Q3 results.I am not convinced that the move is reasonable, or sustainable.Firstly, investors should consider that Q3 delivery numbers - which were presented a few weeks earlier - indicated already a challenging environment.Secondly, Tesla's Q3 results were actually not that bad with automotive revenues jumping by 28% quarter over quarter, and 56% year over year.Thirdly, Tesla is clearly still a high-growth company. So, trading TSLA shares based on one quarter might not be the best strategy for (long-term) investors.ThesisTesla stock is down 6.25% (after-hours trading reference) after the company reported slightly worse-than-expected Q3 results. But I am not convinced that the move is reasonable or sustainable.Firstly, investors should consider that Q3 delivery numbers - which were presented a few weeks earlier - indicated already a challenging environment. And the respective headwinds have arguably been priced in, given that the stock is down by about 20% since the news. Accordingly, the stock price reaction following Q3 seems more like a mechanical response to headlines, than to changes in fundamental value.Secondly, Tesla's Q3 results were actually not that bad, with automotive revenues jumping by 28% quarter over quarter.Thirdly, Tesla is clearly still a high-growth company. So, trading TSLA shares based on one quarter might not be the best strategy for (long-term) investors.Following my previous analysis that Tesla's fair implied value per share should be around $367, I remain 'Buy' rated and see the 6% dip as an enhanced buying opportunity.Tesla's Q3 ResultsPersonally, I disagree with the market consensus that Tesla's Q3 results are bad. From July to end of September, Tesla generated total revenues of $18.69 billion, which compares to $12.06 billion one year prior, and to $14.6 billion in Q2 2022. Thus, Tesla managed to increase revenues by 55% year over year and 28% quarter over quarter. What other company can post such results amidst a clearly slowing global economy?Net income attributable to shareholders surged 103% year over year to $3.29 billion for the September quarter ($0.95/share). Free cash flow jumped even more, by $148%. I can't stress enough that these excellent numbers should be put in relation to the current macro environment.Tesla Q3 presentationMoreover, investors should note that Tesla's growth is high-quality growth, driven by (1) increased volume, (2) higher average selling prices, and (3) non-OEM manufacturing business initiatives. Meanwhile, FX headwinds are estimated to have impacted the business by $250 million in Q3.Growth Outlook Remains BrightTesla's growth outlook clearly remains strong: In the Q3 earnings presentation, the company confirmed that over a 'multi-year period', growth is estimated to touch 50% CAGR. Moreover, Tesla continues to affirm that growth challenges remain exclusively related to supply constraints, naming 'equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency, and supply chain stability' as the key factors for continued high-growth.During the analyst call, Musk said:I can't emphasise enough we have excellent demand and we expect to sell every car we can make as far in the future as we can see.Tesla clearly also has the cash to fund expansion. By end of the September quarter, Tesla had $21.1 billion of cash and cash equivalents (including short-term investments), and generated about $3.3 billion of free cash flow during the quarter.The EV maker also said that 'Tesla Semi' is expected to deliver first units by end of December 2022 and industrialization for the 'Cybertruck' is 'making progress'.Tesla Q3 presentationBuybacks On The Horizon?Going into Q3 earnings, some analysts speculated that Tesla could soon announce a share-buyback program - the company's first effort to distribute value back to shareholders. In the analyst call, Musk confirmed that the company 'generally believes a buyback makes sense' and commented that a buyback program in the range between $5 billion and $10 billion could be likely, even if conditions worsen going into Q3. However, nothing official has been announced yet.Thoughts On ValuationTesla is clearly trading at a premium valuation - this is no secret. Post Q3, the carmaker is valued at a x8 EV/Sales and x46 EV/EBIT. This implies a valuation premium of about x2 - x3 to the S&P 500 (SPY).But accounting for Tesla's future outlook, an analyst could argue that the valuation premium is justified. With regard to growth, Tesla is clearly outperforming peers and the broad market. But also profitability is strong, despite the growth expensing: Tesla's operating profitability is almost double the respective metric for peers and now also higher than the respective metric for the S&P 500. Moreover, Tesla's metrics are still up trending, supported by higher production efficiency and software related profits:while we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing an operations, over time, we expect our hardware related profits to be accompanied with an acceleration of software related profits.Personally, I see no reason to change the long-term business outlook for Tesla post-Q3. And accordingly, I continue to believe that Tesla should be valued at about $367/share - with clear upside skew for the sensitivity analysis. My base case remains anchored on 10 million car unit sales by 2030, an ASP of $65,000, a 15.5% net margin, and 20% of software sales as a percentage of car sales revenues.Author's Assumptions and CalculationsUpside case $980/share +325% gainDownside case $96/share -70% lossAuthor's Assumptions and CalculationsRisksAs I see it, there has been no major risk-updated since I last covered Tesla stock. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock's growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla's share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla's beta vs the S&P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla's fundamental outlook remains unchanged.Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like \"other\" smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla's supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.ConclusionTesla stock is down by about 50% YTD (including post-Q3 after-hours trading), and I don't deny that some of the price depreciation has been necessary to give investors an improved risk/reward setup. But personally, I do not see how the 6.25% sell-off post Q3 is a value trade. In my opinion, it looks more like a mechanical response to negative news headlines surrounding Tesla's Q3 results.But personally, I do not think Tesla's Q3 results were bad. And I surely do not see any change in the long-term outlook for Musk's ambitions with the EV maker. Accordingly, I view the 'dip' as an enhanced investment opportunity and reiterate my 'Buy' rating on TSLA stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572005609122539","authorId":"3572005609122539","name":"ngchris","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76fa13deb76ef9b61305ed927b5c3290","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"going down is inevitable. high interest rate will dampen sales, until interest rate hike stopped then we will see a breather.","text":"going down is inevitable. high interest rate will dampen sales, until interest rate hike stopped then we will see a breather.","html":"going down is inevitable. high interest rate will dampen sales, until interest rate hike stopped then we will see a breather."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050171882,"gmtCreate":1654156795246,"gmtModify":1676535404487,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I buy all 3!","listText":"I buy all 3!","text":"I buy all 3!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050171882","repostId":"1195374277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195374277","pubTimestamp":1654152164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195374277?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-02 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nio vs. XPeng vs. Tesla: Which EV Ride Does the Street Prefer?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195374277","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsElectric vehicle stocks are down year-to-date due to macro headwinds and persistent supply chain issues. However, Wall Street analysts continue to be optimistic about the long-term prospects of EV makers. But which EV stock do they expect to generate higher returns?","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsElectric vehicle stocks are down year-to-date due to macro headwinds and persistent supply chain issues. However, Wall Street analysts continue to be optimistic about the long-term ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-tesla-which-ev-ride-does-the-street-prefer/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio vs. XPeng vs. Tesla: Which EV Ride Does the Street Prefer?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio vs. XPeng vs. Tesla: Which EV Ride Does the Street Prefer?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-02 14:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-tesla-which-ev-ride-does-the-street-prefer/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsElectric vehicle stocks are down year-to-date due to macro headwinds and persistent supply chain issues. However, Wall Street analysts continue to be optimistic about the long-term ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-tesla-which-ev-ride-does-the-street-prefer/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/nio-vs-xpeng-vs-tesla-which-ev-ride-does-the-street-prefer/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195374277","content_text":"Story HighlightsElectric vehicle stocks are down year-to-date due to macro headwinds and persistent supply chain issues. However, Wall Street analysts continue to be optimistic about the long-term prospects of EV makers. But which EV stock do they expect to generate higher returns?Major EV stocks are in the red this year as investors moved to safer value bets from growth stocks amid soaring inflation, high interest rates and geopolitical concerns. Moreover, prolonged chip shortage and supply chain disruptions due to lockdowns in China have impacted EV production.Chinese EV stocks have been facing an additional challenge of potential delisting from U.S. exchanges due to failure to comply with audit requirements.Given this challenging backdrop, we used the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool to stack upNio, XPeng, and Tesla against each other and pick the electric vehicles stock which the Street favors.Nio (NYSE: NIO)Premium EV maker Nio has now listed its shares on Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges, thus addressing concerns about the potential delisting of its shares on the U.S. stock exchange, to some extent.Nio’s April deliveries declined due to supply chain issues and COVID-19 restrictions in China. That said, Wall Street continues to be bullish on the company’s long-term prospects.Recently, Bank of America Securities analyst Ming Hsun Leeupgraded Nio stock to a Buy from a Hold, and increased the price target to $26 from $25. Lee feels that negative factors have already been priced in and the stock is trading at attractive valuations currently. The analyst expects higher sales and better margins in the second half of this year.According to Lee, key growth catalysts for Nio include a robust model cycle and order backlog, the ability to pass on increased costs to customers through price hikes, supply chain normalization, and reduced ADR delisting concerns given Nio’s new exchange listings.Lee raised his sales volume estimates for 2022 and 2023 by 3% and 8%, respectively, based on Nio’s new model launches and the recovery in production.Other analysts are in agreement with Lee’s bullish stance, resulting in a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 14 unanimous Buys. At $40.66, the average Nio price target implies 133.81% upside potential from current levels. Shares have plunged 45% year-to-date.XPeng, Inc. (NYSE: XPEV)XPeng targets the mid- to high-end segment in China’s EV market. The company is also expanding into the European EV market.Last week, XPeng announced its Q1 results, with revenue rising nearly 153% to RMB 7.45 billion ($1.18 billion). It delivered 34,561 vehicles in Q1, up 159% year-over-year.However, the company’s adjusted loss per ADS (American depositary share) widened to RMB 1.80 ($0.28) in Q1’22 from RMB 0.88 in Q1’21 due to higher research and development expenses, increased marketing expenses, and a rise in expenses related to sales network expansion. Further, investors were disappointed with XPeng’s Q2’22 outlook, which reflected slower growth rates.Barclays analystJiong Shao lowered his price target for XPeng stock to $30 from $39 and reiterated a Buy rating. Shao feels that investors should “ignore” Q2 outlook as XPeng’s long-term thesis remains intact.Shao noted that XPeng’s production is gradually resuming and Q2 is “abnormal” due to lockdown-induced supply chain issues. Shao believes that XPeng is set to be among key beneficiaries of EV consumption stimulus.Overall, consensus among analysts is a Strong Buy on XPeng stock based on 10 Buys and one Hold. The average XPeng price target of $39.41 implies 67.70% upside potential from current levels. XPeng shares have tumbled 53% so far this year.Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)While shares of other EV makers are impacted by macro headwinds, Tesla shares have an additional factor that make the stock more volatile – it’s CEO Elon Musk’s actions and tweets. Most recently, his proposed acquisition of Twitter, which he has since put on hold, has led Tesla shareholders to again question the company’s leadership. Although, it can be surmised that Musk’s outspokenness is a quality many investors appreciate.On the operational front, Tesla delivered stellar Q1 results despite supply chain woes and inflation. However, concerns continue to linger about whether Tesla will be able to meet its full-year production goal of 1.5 million vehicles as supply chain issues persist.That said, Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy believes that the pullback in Tesla stock offers an attractive entry level given that the company’s long-term opportunities remain intact.Following a visit to the company’s Fremont facility, Levy noted that while Tesla’s manufacturing focus ahead is on its Shanghai, Berlin and Austin gigafactories, “Fremont has shown ongoing manufacturing kaizen.” Meaning improvement, Kaizen is a philosophical Japanese business term which refers to continuous small changes building up to positively affect a company from top to bottom.However, the analyst expects Tesla’s near-term, mainly Q2, performance to reflect “some regression” in its margins and total deliveries essentially due to production challenges at the Shanghai facility.Levy reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $1,125.Overall, the Street is cautiously optimistic on Tesla with a Moderate Buy consensus rating that breaks down into 14 Buys, 10 Holds, and six Sells. The averageTesla price target of $930.55 suggests 22.72% upside potential from current levels. Shares are down 28% year-to-date.ConclusionDemand for electric vehicles remains strong despite recent price hikes by major EV makers. Wall Street analysts are currently treading carefully with regard to Tesla, while they are very bullish about Nio and XPeng. With a higher upside potential based on the Street’s average price target and a unanimous Buy rating from all analysts, Nio seems to be a better pick right now.While supply-chain issues and macro headwinds might impact near-term performance, Nio’s strong position in the Chinese EV market, expansion into new geographies, like Europe, continued innovation, and its battery-as-a-service offering make it an attractive long-term pick.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":45,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069858192,"gmtCreate":1651277638082,"gmtModify":1676534881616,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We can only blame ourselves as we saw it coming....","listText":"We can only blame ourselves as we saw it coming....","text":"We can only blame ourselves as we saw it coming....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069858192","repostId":"2231269104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2231269104","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1651272464,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2231269104?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-30 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Sharply Lower on Amazon Slump, Inflation Worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2231269104","media":"Reuters","summary":"$Amazon(AMZN)$ tumbles after results and outlook fall shortApple slips after flagging supply problemsMonthly inflation surged by the most since 2005Indexes end: S&P 500 -3.63%, Nasdaq -4.17%, Dow -2.7","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> tumbles after results and outlook fall short</li><li>Apple slips after flagging supply problems</li><li>Monthly inflation surged by the most since 2005</li><li>Indexes end: S&amp;P 500 -3.63%, Nasdaq -4.17%, Dow -2.77%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street slid on Friday to its deepest daily losses since 2020, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> slumped following a gloomy quarterly report, and as the biggest surge in monthly inflation since 2005 spooked investors already worried about rising interest rates.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc</a> tumbled 14.05% in its steepest one-day drop since 2006, leaving the widely held stock near two-year lows. Late on Thursday, the e-commerce giant delivered a disappointing quarter and outlook, swamped by higher costs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc</a>, the world&#39;s most valuable company, dropped 3.66% after its disappointing outlook overshadowed record quarterly profit and sales.</p><p>All 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, led lower by a 5.9% slide in Consumer Discretionary and a 4.9% drop in Real Estate.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 logged it largest one-day decline since June 2020. The Nasdaq&#39;s decline was its largest since September 2020.</p><p>Downbeat results and worries about aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve have hammered megacap technology and growth stocks this month.</p><p>The Fed is set to meet next week, with traders betting on a 50-basis-point rate hike to combat surging inflation.</p><p>Ahead of the weekend and the Fed meeting next week, &#34;people are clearing the decks. The disappointing guidance from Apple and Amazon and a few other companies set the stage yesterday for today to be weak and it accelerated as we ended out the day,&#34; said Peter Tuz, President of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p>The Nasdaq has lost about 13% in April, its worst monthly performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 13% so far in 2022, its steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939.</p><p>Adding to fears on Wall Street, data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed&#39;s favored measure of inflation - shot up 0.9% in March after climbing 0.5% in February.</p><p>Signs of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter.</p><p>The, S&amp;P 500 declined 3.63% to end the session at 4,131.93 points.</p><p>The Nasdaq declined 4.17% to 12,334.64 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.77% to 32,977.21 points.</p><p>For the week, the S&amp;P 500 lost 3.3%, the Nasdaq shed 3.9% and the Dow declined 2.5%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 33 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil Corp</a> slipped 2.24% after it took a $3.4 billion writedown due to its exit from Russia. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron Corp</a> dropped 3.16% after its first-quarter profit underwhelmed.</p><p>The first-quarter earnings season overall has been better than expected so far. Nearly half of the S&amp;P 500 companies have reported through Thursday and 81% of them have topped Wall Street&#39;s expectations. Typically, only 66% beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.91-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.85-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 47 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 13 new highs and 385 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.4 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Sharply Lower on Amazon Slump, Inflation Worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Sharply Lower on Amazon Slump, Inflation Worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-30 06:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> tumbles after results and outlook fall short</li><li>Apple slips after flagging supply problems</li><li>Monthly inflation surged by the most since 2005</li><li>Indexes end: S&amp;P 500 -3.63%, Nasdaq -4.17%, Dow -2.77%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street slid on Friday to its deepest daily losses since 2020, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> slumped following a gloomy quarterly report, and as the biggest surge in monthly inflation since 2005 spooked investors already worried about rising interest rates.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc</a> tumbled 14.05% in its steepest one-day drop since 2006, leaving the widely held stock near two-year lows. Late on Thursday, the e-commerce giant delivered a disappointing quarter and outlook, swamped by higher costs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc</a>, the world&#39;s most valuable company, dropped 3.66% after its disappointing outlook overshadowed record quarterly profit and sales.</p><p>All 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, led lower by a 5.9% slide in Consumer Discretionary and a 4.9% drop in Real Estate.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 logged it largest one-day decline since June 2020. The Nasdaq&#39;s decline was its largest since September 2020.</p><p>Downbeat results and worries about aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve have hammered megacap technology and growth stocks this month.</p><p>The Fed is set to meet next week, with traders betting on a 50-basis-point rate hike to combat surging inflation.</p><p>Ahead of the weekend and the Fed meeting next week, &#34;people are clearing the decks. The disappointing guidance from Apple and Amazon and a few other companies set the stage yesterday for today to be weak and it accelerated as we ended out the day,&#34; said Peter Tuz, President of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p>The Nasdaq has lost about 13% in April, its worst monthly performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 13% so far in 2022, its steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939.</p><p>Adding to fears on Wall Street, data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed&#39;s favored measure of inflation - shot up 0.9% in March after climbing 0.5% in February.</p><p>Signs of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter.</p><p>The, S&amp;P 500 declined 3.63% to end the session at 4,131.93 points.</p><p>The Nasdaq declined 4.17% to 12,334.64 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.77% to 32,977.21 points.</p><p>For the week, the S&amp;P 500 lost 3.3%, the Nasdaq shed 3.9% and the Dow declined 2.5%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 33 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil Corp</a> slipped 2.24% after it took a $3.4 billion writedown due to its exit from Russia. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron Corp</a> dropped 3.16% after its first-quarter profit underwhelmed.</p><p>The first-quarter earnings season overall has been better than expected so far. Nearly half of the S&amp;P 500 companies have reported through Thursday and 81% of them have topped Wall Street&#39;s expectations. Typically, only 66% beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.91-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.85-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 47 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 13 new highs and 385 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.4 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","XOM":"埃克森美孚","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","CVX":"雪佛龙",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2231269104","content_text":"Amazon tumbles after results and outlook fall shortApple slips after flagging supply problemsMonthly inflation surged by the most since 2005Indexes end: S&P 500 -3.63%, Nasdaq -4.17%, Dow -2.77%(Reuters) - Wall Street slid on Friday to its deepest daily losses since 2020, as Amazon slumped following a gloomy quarterly report, and as the biggest surge in monthly inflation since 2005 spooked investors already worried about rising interest rates.Amazon.com Inc tumbled 14.05% in its steepest one-day drop since 2006, leaving the widely held stock near two-year lows. Late on Thursday, the e-commerce giant delivered a disappointing quarter and outlook, swamped by higher costs.Apple Inc, the world's most valuable company, dropped 3.66% after its disappointing outlook overshadowed record quarterly profit and sales.All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes fell, led lower by a 5.9% slide in Consumer Discretionary and a 4.9% drop in Real Estate.The S&P 500 logged it largest one-day decline since June 2020. The Nasdaq's decline was its largest since September 2020.Downbeat results and worries about aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve have hammered megacap technology and growth stocks this month.The Fed is set to meet next week, with traders betting on a 50-basis-point rate hike to combat surging inflation.Ahead of the weekend and the Fed meeting next week, \"people are clearing the decks. The disappointing guidance from Apple and Amazon and a few other companies set the stage yesterday for today to be weak and it accelerated as we ended out the day,\" said Peter Tuz, President of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.The Nasdaq has lost about 13% in April, its worst monthly performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.The S&P 500 has fallen 13% so far in 2022, its steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939.Adding to fears on Wall Street, data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed's favored measure of inflation - shot up 0.9% in March after climbing 0.5% in February.Signs of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter.The, S&P 500 declined 3.63% to end the session at 4,131.93 points.The Nasdaq declined 4.17% to 12,334.64 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.77% to 32,977.21 points.For the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.3%, the Nasdaq shed 3.9% and the Dow declined 2.5%.The S&P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 33 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.Exxon Mobil Corp slipped 2.24% after it took a $3.4 billion writedown due to its exit from Russia. Chevron Corp dropped 3.16% after its first-quarter profit underwhelmed.The first-quarter earnings season overall has been better than expected so far. Nearly half of the S&P 500 companies have reported through Thursday and 81% of them have topped Wall Street's expectations. Typically, only 66% beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.91-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.85-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 47 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 13 new highs and 385 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.4 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098686006,"gmtCreate":1644115114589,"gmtModify":1676533891367,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TSLA has volume and fame. &nbsp;But it could change at short notice! &nbsp;Auto industry is not high profit like disruptive tech .... &nbsp;just my 2 cents&nbsp;","listText":"TSLA has volume and fame. &nbsp;But it could change at short notice! &nbsp;Auto industry is not high profit like disruptive tech .... &nbsp;just my 2 cents&nbsp;","text":"TSLA has volume and fame. But it could change at short notice! Auto industry is not high profit like disruptive tech .... just my 2 cents","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098686006","repostId":"1167513065","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167513065","pubTimestamp":1644109830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167513065?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-06 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167513065","media":"Barrons","summary":"Teslacould be bigger than bothGeneral MotorsandFord Motorcombined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasis thinking.It’s a provocative idea for ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.</p><p>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.</p><p>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.</p><p>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.</p><p>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.</p><p>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.</p><p>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.</p><p>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.</p><p>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.</p><p>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.</p><p>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.</p><p>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.</p><p>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.</p><p>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.</p><p>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-06 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167513065","content_text":"Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573540190522229","authorId":"3573540190522229","name":"Targarean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/59de1c73df3e7e460bd84cc786850fa6","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"I agree and it’s wishful thinking believing that Tesla will miraculously change and take over the automotive world. As humans we want variety, not the same car that everyone else is driving","text":"I agree and it’s wishful thinking believing that Tesla will miraculously change and take over the automotive world. As humans we want variety, not the same car that everyone else is driving","html":"I agree and it’s wishful thinking believing that Tesla will miraculously change and take over the automotive world. As humans we want variety, not the same car that everyone else is driving"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898020767,"gmtCreate":1628463105659,"gmtModify":1703506318833,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As an EV stock…not worthy, many will close the gap. &nbsp;If other “future” businesses are included, it can even hit 3000…","listText":"As an EV stock…not worthy, many will close the gap. &nbsp;If other “future” businesses are included, it can even hit 3000…","text":"As an EV stock…not worthy, many will close the gap. If other “future” businesses are included, it can even hit 3000…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898020767","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>\n <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>\n <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p>\n<p>But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p>\n<p><b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p>\n<p>In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p>\n<p>Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p>\n<p>Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p>\n<p>On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p>\n<p><b>So what gives?</b></p>\n<p>If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p>\n<p>The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p>\n<p>Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p>\n<p>While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-08 09:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898064012,"gmtCreate":1628462776536,"gmtModify":1703506314404,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beginning of listings in Hong Kong instead of USA…the new trend.","listText":"Beginning of listings in Hong Kong instead of USA…the new trend.","text":"Beginning of listings in Hong Kong instead of USA…the new trend.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898064012","repostId":"2157490509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124100996,"gmtCreate":1624750760715,"gmtModify":1703844302662,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The making of another giant&nbsp;","listText":"The making of another giant&nbsp;","text":"The making of another giant","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124100996","repostId":"1175794606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175794606","pubTimestamp":1624677803,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175794606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175794606","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.As Nvidia finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.The stock is up 95% over the last","content":"<p>ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.</p>\n<p>I have always been bullish on NVDA stock and had recommended a purchase before the stock split. The stock has enjoyed an excellent ride over the years.</p>\n<p>It has gone from $104 in April 2017 to $500 in October 2020 and is exchanging hands for $755 today. If you had made the purchase based on my June 9 recommendation at $700, you would be sitting on a chance to get four times shares.</p>\n<p>The stock is up 95% over the last year and 40% over the past six months. Looking at the strong position Nvidia holds in the industry, there is no stopping NVDA stock. Investors should be ready for massive gains in the coming years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2 catalysts driving NVDA stock higher.</p>\n<p><b>ARM Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia had announced the&nbsp;acquisition of ARM&nbsp;for $40 billion in 2020. The deal has not been received positively in the semiconductor industry but if it goes through, Nvidia has an opportunity to become one of the most important companies with time. It needs approval from the U.K., U.S., European and Chinese regulators.</p>\n<p>This deal will allow Nvidia to advance in the field of computing and it will take the sales and revenue higher. The deal will be complete by March 2022 and once it does, there is no looking back for Nvidia. The company will be able to offer higher efficiency on its products with ARM architecture.</p>\n<p>At a recent conference of Six-Five Summit and CogX,Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&nbsp;made a case for the merger which would combine the capacities of ARM with Nvidia’s AI capabilities and will lead to the creation of new ideas. The deal will open new business opportunities for Nvidia and will help the company create new products that will only increase its competitive advantage in the industry.</p>\n<p><b>Another step ahead with AI</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia is not new to AI and it is only moving forward with it. The company unveiled&nbsp;Nvidia AI LaunchPad, which is a program for enterprises and it will give access to NVIDIA-powered software and infrastructure to streamline the AI lifecycle.</p>\n<p>Equinix, a leader in digital infrastructure will be the first in the program and it will provide Nvidia-powered solutions on its platform. Nvidia is making it easy for enterprises to get access to AI and deploy it for the growth of their business.</p>\n<p>I strongly believe that AI will take Nvidia higher in the coming months and with each development and update, the company is only making its presence stronger in the industry.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line on NVDA stock</b></p>\n<p>Once the ARM acquisition is complete, Nvidia could become one of the biggest tech companies today. However, the acquisition may take time but there is no doubting the potential of Nvidia.</p>\n<p>The company has strong fundamentals and enjoys a top position in the industry. There could be a dip in NVDA stock due to the stock split but it proves nothing about the fundamentals.</p>\n<p>Raymond James&nbsp;analyst Chris Caso&nbsp;raised the price target of NVDA stock to $900 with a Strong Buy rating. The analyst believes that the company is best positioned for growth in the long term.</p>\n<p>There is not one but many factors that will take NVDA stock higher and every dip is an opportunity to load up on the stock.</p>\n<p>NVDA stock is poised for long-term growth and is one stock to hold for the decade.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.\nAs Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175794606","content_text":"ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.\nAs Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.\nI have always been bullish on NVDA stock and had recommended a purchase before the stock split. The stock has enjoyed an excellent ride over the years.\nIt has gone from $104 in April 2017 to $500 in October 2020 and is exchanging hands for $755 today. If you had made the purchase based on my June 9 recommendation at $700, you would be sitting on a chance to get four times shares.\nThe stock is up 95% over the last year and 40% over the past six months. Looking at the strong position Nvidia holds in the industry, there is no stopping NVDA stock. Investors should be ready for massive gains in the coming years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2 catalysts driving NVDA stock higher.\nARM Acquisition\nNvidia had announced the acquisition of ARM for $40 billion in 2020. The deal has not been received positively in the semiconductor industry but if it goes through, Nvidia has an opportunity to become one of the most important companies with time. It needs approval from the U.K., U.S., European and Chinese regulators.\nThis deal will allow Nvidia to advance in the field of computing and it will take the sales and revenue higher. The deal will be complete by March 2022 and once it does, there is no looking back for Nvidia. The company will be able to offer higher efficiency on its products with ARM architecture.\nAt a recent conference of Six-Five Summit and CogX,Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a case for the merger which would combine the capacities of ARM with Nvidia’s AI capabilities and will lead to the creation of new ideas. The deal will open new business opportunities for Nvidia and will help the company create new products that will only increase its competitive advantage in the industry.\nAnother step ahead with AI\nNvidia is not new to AI and it is only moving forward with it. The company unveiled Nvidia AI LaunchPad, which is a program for enterprises and it will give access to NVIDIA-powered software and infrastructure to streamline the AI lifecycle.\nEquinix, a leader in digital infrastructure will be the first in the program and it will provide Nvidia-powered solutions on its platform. Nvidia is making it easy for enterprises to get access to AI and deploy it for the growth of their business.\nI strongly believe that AI will take Nvidia higher in the coming months and with each development and update, the company is only making its presence stronger in the industry.\nThe bottom line on NVDA stock\nOnce the ARM acquisition is complete, Nvidia could become one of the biggest tech companies today. However, the acquisition may take time but there is no doubting the potential of Nvidia.\nThe company has strong fundamentals and enjoys a top position in the industry. There could be a dip in NVDA stock due to the stock split but it proves nothing about the fundamentals.\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso raised the price target of NVDA stock to $900 with a Strong Buy rating. The analyst believes that the company is best positioned for growth in the long term.\nThere is not one but many factors that will take NVDA stock higher and every dip is an opportunity to load up on the stock.\nNVDA stock is poised for long-term growth and is one stock to hold for the decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940093601,"gmtCreate":1677585252203,"gmtModify":1677585256005,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No urgency&nbsp;","listText":"No urgency&nbsp;","text":"No urgency","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940093601","repostId":"1121046489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998545110,"gmtCreate":1661043098933,"gmtModify":1676536442209,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When all say die, time to invest!","listText":"When all say die, time to invest!","text":"When all say die, time to invest!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998545110","repostId":"1161973648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161973648","pubTimestamp":1660961604,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161973648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-20 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161973648","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the \"return to normal\" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering \"phase 2\" of its fi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Bitcoin&#39;s blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the &#34;return to normal&#34; stage of a bubble.</li><li>We anticipate Bitcoin is entering &#34;phase 2&#34; of its first-ever bear market, which can decrease BTC by another 60% to 80%.</li><li>Tight monetary conditions, regulatory encroachment into crypto, pending collapses/insolvencies, and the spread of Monkeypox can push Bitcoin to $13k, $11k, or $8k - $5k by November 2022.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06049fcdc1faaaf8e98c02d34d25e737\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>rayisa</span></p><p><b>Bitcoin: This Time Is Different!</b></p><p>As opposed to the grassroots movement it once was, institutional fund flows primarily drove Bitcoin&#39;s (BTC-USD) most recent bull trend. In 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0 and provided over $2.3 trillionin loans to support the economy. This, combined with Covid-19 stimulus checks given directly to citizens, worked to funnel billions of excess liquidity into the crypto casino.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad60d9dee720c7827a97c38a6feb675\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p>With Bitcoin&#39;s unraveling and dip below $20k, much of the magic surrounding cryptocurrencies has diminished. We believe the current bear market is forcing investors to realize numerous hard truths, including:</p><ol><li>Bitcoin&#39;s unsustainable growth rate,</li><li>Incoming regulations for Ethereum (ETH-USD) and DeFi,</li><li>The crypto market&#39;s <i>over-reliance</i> on loose monetary policy and a bullish stock market.</li></ol><p>After a violent rally from June 18th to August 15th, Bitcoin&#39;s all-time chart has one of the most bearish patterns I&#39;ve ever seen. To understand this, you must note that a backdrop of<i>favorable financial conditions</i>has characterized Bitcoin&#39;s entire existence. This includes 13 years with a Federal Funds rate between 0% - 2%, promoting a consistently bullish market for stocks.</p><p>Now, when faced with a<i>bearish</i>stock market and<i>high</i>rates, we expect Bitcoin&#39;s price will plummet.</p><p><b>Bitcoin All-Time Price Chart</b></p><p>The chart below compares Bitcoin vs. the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX). Observably, an increasing stock market has always supported Bitcoin:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbc9b759a44f7933564ded412fb9314\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p>Amidst such <i>extensively beneficial</i> market conditions, Bitcoin&#39;s price has swung bullishly between two massive hype cycles (firstly driven by retail from 2012 to 2017 and secondly by institutions from 2018 to 2021). These hype cycles are identified with the green and red boxes in the chart above.</p><ul><li>Bitcoin&#39;s hype cycles together form a decade-long 5-wave impulsive movement that peaks at $68k/BTC (identified with the orange lines).</li></ul><p>Therefore, the data shows that Bitcoin&#39;s growth rate has always been supported by a beneficial market that promoted increasing hype. This hype emerged as retail FOMO in 2017 and institutional FOMO in 2021. (<i>Up next could be nation-state FOMO. We aren&#39;t kidding. If there is another &#34;cryptocurrency cycle,&#34; it could see governments FOMO into Bitcoin in efforts to mitigate inflation</i>).</p><p>As monetary conditions tighten and stocks collapse, we believe Bitcoin&#39;s previous growth trend is no longer sustainable. Consequently, we expect Bitcoin will decline to <i>at least</i> $13.7k (precisely 80% below its all-time high) by November.</p><ul><li>Going forward, further downside in Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) can be powered by worsening economic conditions, increasing regulatory pressure, and the shattering of many deeply held cryptocurrency beliefs.</li><li>We expect new regulations will soon require Ethereum applications to collect user information.</li><li>We&#39;re also exceedingly worried about the ongoingDOJ probe into Tether(USDT-USD); we suspect more crypto exchange insolvencies are on the way, and we expect global Monkeypox cases will worsen into 2023.</li></ul><p><b>Bitcoin TA Shows Another 60% Decline</b></p><p>Technically speaking, Bitcoin has moved impressively bullish since bottoming at $17,637 on June 18th, 2022. However, indicators have since rapidly shifted<i>bearish,</i>prompting us to believe the rally is over. Currently, the most significant bearish indicators include:</p><ul><li>A 5-wave impulsive movement that ended with a blow-off top at $25k,</li><li>the daily MACD negatively crossing 0,</li><li>the daily/weekly trendlines remain untested.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/761c7bbe9eaa8132d4fbcd6b8fa72ed7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1D (TradingView)</span></p><p>In our previous article, we identified Bitcoin was moving in a <i>reflexive rally</i> powered by<i>less bad</i>economic conditions and positive investor sentiment. Although we expected the bull trend to last until mid-September, recent government action against Tornado Cash appears to have killed the hype:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b89df931566e267cc18e520965fb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1H (TradingView)</span></p><p>The chart below uses multi-timeframe trendlines to determine Bitcoin&#39;s speed, direction, and significant support levels. TrendSpider indicates Bitcoin is moving in an approximately 35-degree downtrend, projected to reach weekly support at $8k - $5k between October and November 2022. This projection is over 60% below Bitcoin&#39;s current price!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a0514bb05bd64ce0bcc045a3283170\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1D (TrendSpider)</span></p><p>Zooming out, we believe TrendSpider&#39;s weekly trendlines reflect Bitcoin&#39;s <i>real</i> logarithmic growth curves (as opposed to the fake curve often circulated). Accordingly, we expect Bitcoin to move like a &#34;bowling ball thrown out a window&#34; until reaching $10k psychological support or weekly trendline support between $8k - $5k.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/796db43ff5d73d88d492a35e626ae320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1W (TrendSpider)</span></p><p>Hence, Bitcoin&#39;s technicals are all signaling bearish. To conclude, we&#39;re planning for three possibilities to trade Bitcoin&#39;s bottom:</p><ol><li>The bottom is in, and Bitcoin will now resume its long-term bull trend.</li><li>Bitcoin will mirror previous cycles and bottom approximately 80% below its all-time high, located around $13.7k - $11k.</li><li>Fear caused by new cryptocurrency regulations and worsening financial conditions will push Bitcoin below $10k. In this scenario, we expect BTC to find support at its weekly trendlines between $8k - $5k.</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4449d83f87efa2a1cd3cfb2cb066f6f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p><b>Bitcoin&#39;s First True Bear Market</b></p><p>By observing Bitcoin&#39;s lifetime of price action, we can see that Bitcoin&#39;s long-term bull trend has always been powered by hype (where investors allocate funds <i>in anticipation</i> of more investors entering crypto) as well as beneficial circumstances (including loose monetary policy, an increasing stock market, and lack of regulations). After over a decade of advantageous conditions, Bitcoin is now facing<i>the opposite</i>of each of these dynamics.</p><p>In our view, Bitcoin&#39;s recent 75% downtrend from November 2021 to June 2022 represents &#39;phase 1&#39; of a much larger bear market. In fact, we believe Bitcoin is currently entering its first-ever <i>real</i> bear market.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, the last two Bitcoin &#39;bear markets&#39; <i>weren&#39;t actually bear markets.</i> Instead, they were bull market corrections!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db68ad989673aafb983acbfdf6ef8dc5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin has yet to enter its <i>true</i> bear market territory. We believe Bitcoin&#39;s first bear market begins below $20k, upon which all of the most famous bull trend indicators will become invalid.</p><p>While Bitcoin&#39;s stock-to-flowmodel and logarithmic growth curvesare already broken, we expect Bitcoin&#39;s Pi Cycle indicator (shown below) is the next to break:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed4a896fd6b61d52a0f24867a6da507\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p><b>Incoming Black Swan Events</b></p><p>So far, we&#39;ve covered Bitcoin&#39;s bearish technicals and fundamentals. We also explained why we expect an impending crash will be Bitcoin&#39;s<i>worst ever</i>. Going forward, we&#39;re anticipating the following &#39;Black Swan&#39; events will power a violent downturn:</p><p><b>1) Stock Market Collapse</b></p><p>Despite the past 7-month downtrend, the NASDAQ-100 index is still<i>overvalued</i>relative to its long-term base-level trendline:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d58fcfab0b93b5fbc217eca0329f8f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NDX:USD - 1W (TradingView)</span></p><p>As shown above, the similarities between the Nasdaq&#39;s current structure to 2008 and 1999 are uncanny. If NDX is destined to crash like the dot-com bubble, this will decrease the index by another 64%.</p><p><b>2) Cryptocurrency Regulation</b></p><p>As previously stated, the US government sanctioned the Ethereum mixer application &#39;Tornado Cash&#39; on August 8th, 2022. As regulatory uncertainty has haunted cryptocurrencies for years, we believe the recent government action against Tornado Cash represents one of<i>many</i>attacks soon to come.</p><p>Furthermore, the Tornado Cash sanction proved that Ethereum is not censorship-resistant. This flies in the face of millions of ETH investors (including myself) who previously assumed Ethereum applications were immune to government censorship.</p><p>Therefore, we expect <i>increasing regulation</i> and the <i>relinquishment of previously held beliefs</i> will drive the prices of Ethereum and its DeFi economy much lower.</p><blockquote>Laura Shin&#39;s &#39;Unchained&#39; podcast episode with Dave Jevans, CEO of Cipher Trace, is the best source I&#39;ve found to discover incoming cryptocurrency regulations.</blockquote><p><b>3) Tether Collapse</b></p><p>The Tether stablecoin represents another dynamic that has haunted the crypto market for years. In 2018, two university professors released a 60-page report detailing how Tether used market manipulation tactics to boost Bitcoin&#39;s price during the 2017 rally.</p><p>Although the crypto market has ignored this controversy for years, the US Department of Justice has recently moved to re-open their investigation into Tether. As the crypto market&#39;s largest stablecoin (valued at $43 billion), it&#39;s reasonable to assume that a Tether bank fraud conviction would negatively affect cryptocurrency prices.</p><p><b>4) Exchange Insolvencies</b></p><p>&#34;Phase 1&#34; of Bitcoin&#39;s bear market (from $68k to $17k) saw numerous cryptocurrency lenders declare insolvency. During Phase 2 of the downtrend (which will bring Bitcoin below $20k), we believe more exchanges and lenders will declare insolvency/bankruptcy.</p><p>Notably, in a move similar to Celsius and Voyager&#39;s pre-insolvency actions, Crypto.com (CRO-USD) has recently decreased the rewards paid to its credit card holders. Although this doesn&#39;t<i>prove</i>anything, it&#39;s objectively not a good sign.</p><p><b>5) Monkeypox</b></p><p>Lastly, we believe the Monkeypox virus represents a significant &#39;black swan&#39; event that markets aren&#39;t pricing in. As of August 18th, 2022, there are 38,735 confirmed global Monkeypox cases and 2,446 suspected cases:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c26dd7ca82e31f91a6c9b4f244da256\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Cumulative Confirmed Monkeypox Cases (monkeypox.global.health)</span></p><p>Although it&#39;s unlikely that Monkeypox will spread as quickly as Covid-19, it is worth noting that cumulative international Monkeypox cases are currently at the same number as Covid-19 during February 2020:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51042d06277e56a3fa14ecf273febd78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Covid-19 Cumulative Confirmed Cases (Our World In Data)</span></p><p>We anticipate Monkeypox will develop into a much larger issue as cases increase into 2023. Raising monkeypox cases could frighten many citizens, prompting them to seek vaccinations from a dwindling supply.</p><p><b>Short Trades</b></p><p>Currently, we&#39;re margin short Bitcoin with an entry at $24.2k, and we&#39;re short Ethereum at $1902. We&#39;re also short Uniswap (UNI-USD) and Curve Finance (CRV-USD), as we expect incoming cryptocurrency regulations will seriously damage these protocols.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>Trends in macroeconomics and central bank policy support our bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Risks include any<i>hint</i>of dovishness from the Fed (which would rocket markets higher) and uncertainties surrounding the November 2022 Congressional elections. Markets may bounce if the Republicans win the majority in the House of Representatives. Alternatively, we expect a heavy dump if the Democrats win.</p><p>Additionally, investors should continue to expect each month&#39;s inflation print and economic data to affect prices heavily.</p><p><b>Key Takeaways</b></p><ul><li>After 13 years of beneficial financial conditions and two massive hype cycles, Bitcoin is poised for its biggest crash ever (its first<i>real</i>bear market).</li><li>We anticipate this downturn can push Bitcoin to $13k - $11k or to $8k - $5k.</li><li>Majorly detrimental events are brewing beneath the crypto market&#39;s surface, including regulatory encroachment, a worsening economy, poor financial conditions, and the spread of the Monkeypox virus.</li></ul><p><i>This article was written by Bitfreedom Research. </i><i>This document is for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-20 10:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535755-bitcoin-black-swans-lurking><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the \"return to normal\" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering \"phase 2\" of its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535755-bitcoin-black-swans-lurking\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535755-bitcoin-black-swans-lurking","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161973648","content_text":"SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the \"return to normal\" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering \"phase 2\" of its first-ever bear market, which can decrease BTC by another 60% to 80%.Tight monetary conditions, regulatory encroachment into crypto, pending collapses/insolvencies, and the spread of Monkeypox can push Bitcoin to $13k, $11k, or $8k - $5k by November 2022.rayisaBitcoin: This Time Is Different!As opposed to the grassroots movement it once was, institutional fund flows primarily drove Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) most recent bull trend. In 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0 and provided over $2.3 trillionin loans to support the economy. This, combined with Covid-19 stimulus checks given directly to citizens, worked to funnel billions of excess liquidity into the crypto casino.BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)With Bitcoin's unraveling and dip below $20k, much of the magic surrounding cryptocurrencies has diminished. We believe the current bear market is forcing investors to realize numerous hard truths, including:Bitcoin's unsustainable growth rate,Incoming regulations for Ethereum (ETH-USD) and DeFi,The crypto market's over-reliance on loose monetary policy and a bullish stock market.After a violent rally from June 18th to August 15th, Bitcoin's all-time chart has one of the most bearish patterns I've ever seen. To understand this, you must note that a backdrop offavorable financial conditionshas characterized Bitcoin's entire existence. This includes 13 years with a Federal Funds rate between 0% - 2%, promoting a consistently bullish market for stocks.Now, when faced with abearishstock market andhighrates, we expect Bitcoin's price will plummet.Bitcoin All-Time Price ChartThe chart below compares Bitcoin vs. the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX). Observably, an increasing stock market has always supported Bitcoin:BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)Amidst such extensively beneficial market conditions, Bitcoin's price has swung bullishly between two massive hype cycles (firstly driven by retail from 2012 to 2017 and secondly by institutions from 2018 to 2021). These hype cycles are identified with the green and red boxes in the chart above.Bitcoin's hype cycles together form a decade-long 5-wave impulsive movement that peaks at $68k/BTC (identified with the orange lines).Therefore, the data shows that Bitcoin's growth rate has always been supported by a beneficial market that promoted increasing hype. This hype emerged as retail FOMO in 2017 and institutional FOMO in 2021. (Up next could be nation-state FOMO. We aren't kidding. If there is another \"cryptocurrency cycle,\" it could see governments FOMO into Bitcoin in efforts to mitigate inflation).As monetary conditions tighten and stocks collapse, we believe Bitcoin's previous growth trend is no longer sustainable. Consequently, we expect Bitcoin will decline to at least $13.7k (precisely 80% below its all-time high) by November.Going forward, further downside in Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) can be powered by worsening economic conditions, increasing regulatory pressure, and the shattering of many deeply held cryptocurrency beliefs.We expect new regulations will soon require Ethereum applications to collect user information.We're also exceedingly worried about the ongoingDOJ probe into Tether(USDT-USD); we suspect more crypto exchange insolvencies are on the way, and we expect global Monkeypox cases will worsen into 2023.Bitcoin TA Shows Another 60% DeclineTechnically speaking, Bitcoin has moved impressively bullish since bottoming at $17,637 on June 18th, 2022. However, indicators have since rapidly shiftedbearish,prompting us to believe the rally is over. Currently, the most significant bearish indicators include:A 5-wave impulsive movement that ended with a blow-off top at $25k,the daily MACD negatively crossing 0,the daily/weekly trendlines remain untested.BTC:USD - 1D (TradingView)In our previous article, we identified Bitcoin was moving in a reflexive rally powered byless badeconomic conditions and positive investor sentiment. Although we expected the bull trend to last until mid-September, recent government action against Tornado Cash appears to have killed the hype:BTC:USD - 1H (TradingView)The chart below uses multi-timeframe trendlines to determine Bitcoin's speed, direction, and significant support levels. TrendSpider indicates Bitcoin is moving in an approximately 35-degree downtrend, projected to reach weekly support at $8k - $5k between October and November 2022. This projection is over 60% below Bitcoin's current price!BTC:USD - 1D (TrendSpider)Zooming out, we believe TrendSpider's weekly trendlines reflect Bitcoin's real logarithmic growth curves (as opposed to the fake curve often circulated). Accordingly, we expect Bitcoin to move like a \"bowling ball thrown out a window\" until reaching $10k psychological support or weekly trendline support between $8k - $5k.BTC:USD - 1W (TrendSpider)Hence, Bitcoin's technicals are all signaling bearish. To conclude, we're planning for three possibilities to trade Bitcoin's bottom:The bottom is in, and Bitcoin will now resume its long-term bull trend.Bitcoin will mirror previous cycles and bottom approximately 80% below its all-time high, located around $13.7k - $11k.Fear caused by new cryptocurrency regulations and worsening financial conditions will push Bitcoin below $10k. In this scenario, we expect BTC to find support at its weekly trendlines between $8k - $5k.BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)Bitcoin's First True Bear MarketBy observing Bitcoin's lifetime of price action, we can see that Bitcoin's long-term bull trend has always been powered by hype (where investors allocate funds in anticipation of more investors entering crypto) as well as beneficial circumstances (including loose monetary policy, an increasing stock market, and lack of regulations). After over a decade of advantageous conditions, Bitcoin is now facingthe oppositeof each of these dynamics.In our view, Bitcoin's recent 75% downtrend from November 2021 to June 2022 represents 'phase 1' of a much larger bear market. In fact, we believe Bitcoin is currently entering its first-ever real bear market.As shown in the chart below, the last two Bitcoin 'bear markets' weren't actually bear markets. Instead, they were bull market corrections!BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)At the time of writing, Bitcoin has yet to enter its true bear market territory. We believe Bitcoin's first bear market begins below $20k, upon which all of the most famous bull trend indicators will become invalid.While Bitcoin's stock-to-flowmodel and logarithmic growth curvesare already broken, we expect Bitcoin's Pi Cycle indicator (shown below) is the next to break:BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)Incoming Black Swan EventsSo far, we've covered Bitcoin's bearish technicals and fundamentals. We also explained why we expect an impending crash will be Bitcoin'sworst ever. Going forward, we're anticipating the following 'Black Swan' events will power a violent downturn:1) Stock Market CollapseDespite the past 7-month downtrend, the NASDAQ-100 index is stillovervaluedrelative to its long-term base-level trendline:NDX:USD - 1W (TradingView)As shown above, the similarities between the Nasdaq's current structure to 2008 and 1999 are uncanny. If NDX is destined to crash like the dot-com bubble, this will decrease the index by another 64%.2) Cryptocurrency RegulationAs previously stated, the US government sanctioned the Ethereum mixer application 'Tornado Cash' on August 8th, 2022. As regulatory uncertainty has haunted cryptocurrencies for years, we believe the recent government action against Tornado Cash represents one ofmanyattacks soon to come.Furthermore, the Tornado Cash sanction proved that Ethereum is not censorship-resistant. This flies in the face of millions of ETH investors (including myself) who previously assumed Ethereum applications were immune to government censorship.Therefore, we expect increasing regulation and the relinquishment of previously held beliefs will drive the prices of Ethereum and its DeFi economy much lower.Laura Shin's 'Unchained' podcast episode with Dave Jevans, CEO of Cipher Trace, is the best source I've found to discover incoming cryptocurrency regulations.3) Tether CollapseThe Tether stablecoin represents another dynamic that has haunted the crypto market for years. In 2018, two university professors released a 60-page report detailing how Tether used market manipulation tactics to boost Bitcoin's price during the 2017 rally.Although the crypto market has ignored this controversy for years, the US Department of Justice has recently moved to re-open their investigation into Tether. As the crypto market's largest stablecoin (valued at $43 billion), it's reasonable to assume that a Tether bank fraud conviction would negatively affect cryptocurrency prices.4) Exchange Insolvencies\"Phase 1\" of Bitcoin's bear market (from $68k to $17k) saw numerous cryptocurrency lenders declare insolvency. During Phase 2 of the downtrend (which will bring Bitcoin below $20k), we believe more exchanges and lenders will declare insolvency/bankruptcy.Notably, in a move similar to Celsius and Voyager's pre-insolvency actions, Crypto.com (CRO-USD) has recently decreased the rewards paid to its credit card holders. Although this doesn'tproveanything, it's objectively not a good sign.5) MonkeypoxLastly, we believe the Monkeypox virus represents a significant 'black swan' event that markets aren't pricing in. As of August 18th, 2022, there are 38,735 confirmed global Monkeypox cases and 2,446 suspected cases:Cumulative Confirmed Monkeypox Cases (monkeypox.global.health)Although it's unlikely that Monkeypox will spread as quickly as Covid-19, it is worth noting that cumulative international Monkeypox cases are currently at the same number as Covid-19 during February 2020:Covid-19 Cumulative Confirmed Cases (Our World In Data)We anticipate Monkeypox will develop into a much larger issue as cases increase into 2023. Raising monkeypox cases could frighten many citizens, prompting them to seek vaccinations from a dwindling supply.Short TradesCurrently, we're margin short Bitcoin with an entry at $24.2k, and we're short Ethereum at $1902. We're also short Uniswap (UNI-USD) and Curve Finance (CRV-USD), as we expect incoming cryptocurrency regulations will seriously damage these protocols.RisksTrends in macroeconomics and central bank policy support our bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Risks include anyhintof dovishness from the Fed (which would rocket markets higher) and uncertainties surrounding the November 2022 Congressional elections. Markets may bounce if the Republicans win the majority in the House of Representatives. Alternatively, we expect a heavy dump if the Democrats win.Additionally, investors should continue to expect each month's inflation print and economic data to affect prices heavily.Key TakeawaysAfter 13 years of beneficial financial conditions and two massive hype cycles, Bitcoin is poised for its biggest crash ever (its firstrealbear market).We anticipate this downturn can push Bitcoin to $13k - $11k or to $8k - $5k.Majorly detrimental events are brewing beneath the crypto market's surface, including regulatory encroachment, a worsening economy, poor financial conditions, and the spread of the Monkeypox virus.This article was written by Bitfreedom Research. This document is for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027361250,"gmtCreate":1653972360570,"gmtModify":1676535372106,"author":{"id":"3578371382142637","authorId":"3578371382142637","name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Experts estimated prices from a couple hundred to a few thousand....no help to anybody I guess.","listText":"Experts estimated prices from a couple hundred to a few thousand....no help to anybody I guess.","text":"Experts estimated prices from a couple hundred to a few thousand....no help to anybody I guess.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027361250","repostId":"1193106300","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193106300","pubTimestamp":1653967607,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193106300?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-31 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Is the Intrinsic Value Support for Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193106300","media":"Simply Wall St","summary":"Key takeaways:45% of Tesla's market cap may be exposed if investors decide to pull back to intrinsic","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Key takeaways:</b></p><ul><li>45% of Tesla&#39;s market cap may be exposed if investors decide to pull back to intrinsic value</li><li>37% of Tesla&#39;s shares are held by retail investors that may tolerate more pressure than the institutions</li><li>Tesla is expected to continue growing revenue at 20% per year</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b5db3bd0bc6354112258ca36c6bde\" tg-width=\"1136\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Tesla, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) was one of the most optimistic growth stories of 2021. With investors having strong opinions on both sides of the debate regarding the value of the stock.</p><p>While the stock may have been highly overvalued in 2021, today we will revisit the company and factor-in both the growth of key fundamentals, as well as the price drop and see how Tesla ranks on intrinsic value.</p><p>Tesla has been successfully growing despite supply chain and raw material challenges. The company is focused on developing its Austin, Berlin and Shanghai gigafactories, while delivering an impressive 48.7% 5-Year CAGR in revenues.</p><p>Just in the last 12 months, Tesla grew revenues 73%, while implementing efficiencies that make revenues grow 13% more than COGS. This means that the company is scaling well on the gross profit side.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fae25242deff12a4c112157cf337dd4\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NasdaqGS:TSLA Estimated Future Estimates, May 19th 2022</span></p><p>Tesla currently has a gross margin of 27.1%, and a net profit margin 13.5%. The company grew from being barely profitable in 2020 to having US$8.4b net income in the last 12 months, and analysts expect that number to rise to US$22.8b in 2025.</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Intrinsic Value</b></p><p>The Tesla valuation is highly disputed amongst analysts and investors, so we are not going to be offering a perspective on the true value, rather it is a rough model based on analysts&#39; future estimates and some model assumptions, so take it with a grain of salt.</p><p>A DCF attempts to value the cash generating capacity of operations. This means that we need to estimate future cash flows and see how much they are worth today by applying a discount for the opportunity cost of the investment.</p><p>We start from analysts&#39; future estimates and compute their present value:</p><p>10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>2022</b></td><td><b>2023</b></td><td><b>2024</b></td><td><b>2025</b></td><td><b>2026</b></td><td><b>2027</b></td><td><b>2028</b></td><td><b>2029</b></td><td><b>2030</b></td><td><b>2031</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Levered FCF</b></td><td>US$9.29b</td><td>US$14.5b</td><td>US$17.9b</td><td>US$23.4b</td><td>US$30.1b</td><td>US$35.1b</td><td>US$39.4b</td><td>US$43.0b</td><td>US$46.1b</td><td>US$48.6b</td></tr><tr><td><b>Growth Rate Estimate Source</b></td><td>Analyst x18</td><td>Analyst x15</td><td>Analyst x13</td><td>Analyst x8</td><td>Analyst x5</td><td>Est @ 16.76%</td><td>Est @ 12.31%</td><td>Est @ 9.19%</td><td>Est @ 7.01%</td><td>Est @ 5.48%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Present Value Discounted @ 8.6%</b></td><td>US$8.6b</td><td>US$12.3b</td><td>US$13.9b</td><td>US$16.8b</td><td>US$19.9b</td><td>US$21.4b</td><td>US$22.1b</td><td>US$22.2b</td><td>US$21.9b</td><td>US$21.3b</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(&#34;Est&#34; = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)</i></p><p>Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) =<b>US$180b</b></p><p>After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage.</p><p><b>Terminal Value (TV)</b>= FCF2031× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$49b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (8.6%– 1.9%) = US$740b</p><p><b>Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)</b>= TV / (1 + r)10= US$740b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= US$324b</p><p>The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, resulting in the <b>Total Equity Value,which in this case is US$504b or US$487 per share</b>.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ffb72652c3ec1fed206c1f1ee6327c\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NasdaqGS:TSLA Discounted Cash Flow May 19th 2022</span></p><p>Conclusion</p><p>It seems that about 45% of the current value is exposed to a possible correction should investors decide to pull back to value. Given that Tesla is a growth stock that is successfully executing, the intrinsic value of the company will keep rising and can converge to the market value if the company performs with expectations.</p><p>Besides the intrinsic value, the stock can be moved by other factors, such as the % of people actively trading it.In the case of Tesla, the public owns 37% of the shares, insiders (mostly Musk) have 17%, and the rest (45%) is held by institutions. Normally, institutions hold 70%+ of large cap stocks, but the high % of shares being held by the public can indicate that the company has loyal investors that may tolerate a larger pullback than institutions.</p><p>Finally, the fundamentals are still strong, and as long as Tesla keeps growing at high rates, investors will have a reason to believe in the company.</p><p>Keep in mind that today we didn&#39;t analyze the risks of the company, and you may want to check them against your investment thesis.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580989461469","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Is the Intrinsic Value Support for Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Is the Intrinsic Value Support for Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-31 11:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla/news/where-is-the-intrinsic-value-support-for-tesla-inc-nasdaqtsl><strong>Simply Wall St</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key takeaways:45% of Tesla's market cap may be exposed if investors decide to pull back to intrinsic value37% of Tesla's shares are held by retail investors that may tolerate more pressure than the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla/news/where-is-the-intrinsic-value-support-for-tesla-inc-nasdaqtsl\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla/news/where-is-the-intrinsic-value-support-for-tesla-inc-nasdaqtsl","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193106300","content_text":"Key takeaways:45% of Tesla's market cap may be exposed if investors decide to pull back to intrinsic value37% of Tesla's shares are held by retail investors that may tolerate more pressure than the institutionsTesla is expected to continue growing revenue at 20% per yearTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) was one of the most optimistic growth stories of 2021. With investors having strong opinions on both sides of the debate regarding the value of the stock.While the stock may have been highly overvalued in 2021, today we will revisit the company and factor-in both the growth of key fundamentals, as well as the price drop and see how Tesla ranks on intrinsic value.Tesla has been successfully growing despite supply chain and raw material challenges. The company is focused on developing its Austin, Berlin and Shanghai gigafactories, while delivering an impressive 48.7% 5-Year CAGR in revenues.Just in the last 12 months, Tesla grew revenues 73%, while implementing efficiencies that make revenues grow 13% more than COGS. This means that the company is scaling well on the gross profit side.NasdaqGS:TSLA Estimated Future Estimates, May 19th 2022Tesla currently has a gross margin of 27.1%, and a net profit margin 13.5%. The company grew from being barely profitable in 2020 to having US$8.4b net income in the last 12 months, and analysts expect that number to rise to US$22.8b in 2025.Tesla's Intrinsic ValueThe Tesla valuation is highly disputed amongst analysts and investors, so we are not going to be offering a perspective on the true value, rather it is a rough model based on analysts' future estimates and some model assumptions, so take it with a grain of salt.A DCF attempts to value the cash generating capacity of operations. This means that we need to estimate future cash flows and see how much they are worth today by applying a discount for the opportunity cost of the investment.We start from analysts' future estimates and compute their present value:10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate2022202320242025202620272028202920302031Levered FCFUS$9.29bUS$14.5bUS$17.9bUS$23.4bUS$30.1bUS$35.1bUS$39.4bUS$43.0bUS$46.1bUS$48.6bGrowth Rate Estimate SourceAnalyst x18Analyst x15Analyst x13Analyst x8Analyst x5Est @ 16.76%Est @ 12.31%Est @ 9.19%Est @ 7.01%Est @ 5.48%Present Value Discounted @ 8.6%US$8.6bUS$12.3bUS$13.9bUS$16.8bUS$19.9bUS$21.4bUS$22.1bUS$22.2bUS$21.9bUS$21.3b(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) =US$180bAfter calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage.Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$49b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (8.6%– 1.9%) = US$740bPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$740b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= US$324bThe total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, resulting in the Total Equity Value,which in this case is US$504b or US$487 per share.NasdaqGS:TSLA Discounted Cash Flow May 19th 2022ConclusionIt seems that about 45% of the current value is exposed to a possible correction should investors decide to pull back to value. Given that Tesla is a growth stock that is successfully executing, the intrinsic value of the company will keep rising and can converge to the market value if the company performs with expectations.Besides the intrinsic value, the stock can be moved by other factors, such as the % of people actively trading it.In the case of Tesla, the public owns 37% of the shares, insiders (mostly Musk) have 17%, and the rest (45%) is held by institutions. Normally, institutions hold 70%+ of large cap stocks, but the high % of shares being held by the public can indicate that the company has loyal investors that may tolerate a larger pullback than institutions.Finally, the fundamentals are still strong, and as long as Tesla keeps growing at high rates, investors will have a reason to believe in the company.Keep in mind that today we didn't analyze the risks of the company, and you may want to check them against your investment thesis.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}