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01-15

$ESR-REIT(J91U.SI)$

2023-10-25

Email from your email address please stop stop hi to reply stop stop to

2023-04-13

Reply stop stop to reply stop stop hi stop stop to reply stop stop to stop stop hi hi I am sorry to hear that you are busy but I am so happy to

2022-11-30

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@Tiger_Newspress:Option Movers | Emerging Markets Are Favored; Pinduoduo and Xpeng See Unusual Trading Activities

2022-11-19

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@Tantiad:Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17

2022-10-15

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2022-10-15

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SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc

2022-09-26

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@TradingLounge:Pepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis September 26 2022

2022-09-24

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This Is How Netflix Could Lose High-Profile Comics From Releasing Their New Specials With Them

2022-09-04

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Bulls and Bears Of The Week: Disney, Amazon, Uber, Apple And Why Netflix Is Facing A Defamation Suit

2022-09-01

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Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%

2022-09-01

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Nvidia Stock Tumbles More Than 10%; Semiconductor ETFs Slide

2022-09-01

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Billionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges

2022-09-01

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Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications

2022-09-01

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US Jobs Data Have Potential to Push Fed Toward Third Jumbo Hike

2022-09-01

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2022-08-29

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2022-08-29

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2022-08-29

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Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked

2022-08-22

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AMC Entertainment Stock Plummets on Cineworld Bankruptcy Option, "APE" Dividend Dilution

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/J91U.SI\">$ESR-REIT(J91U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/J91U.SI\">$ESR-REIT(J91U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$ESR-REIT(J91U.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ac307b3a2d7126d1d5107bb2e9598e7","width":"618","height":"1066"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263353528021256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":234284956135432,"gmtCreate":1698244288553,"gmtModify":1698244293444,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Email from your email address please stop stop hi to reply stop stop to&nbsp;","listText":"Email from your email address please stop stop hi to reply stop stop to&nbsp;","text":"Email from your email address please stop stop hi to reply stop stop to","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234284956135432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945396305,"gmtCreate":1681368253707,"gmtModify":1681368257682,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reply stop stop to reply stop stop hi stop stop to reply stop stop to stop stop hi hi I am sorry to hear that you are busy but I am so happy to&nbsp;","listText":"Reply stop stop to reply stop stop hi stop stop to reply stop stop to stop stop hi hi I am sorry to 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to","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945396305","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962504338,"gmtCreate":1669797809024,"gmtModify":1676538245474,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962504338","repostId":"9962505004","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9962505004,"gmtCreate":1669797462408,"gmtModify":1676538245419,"author":{"id":"3527667628464496","authorId":"3527667628464496","name":"Tiger_Newspress","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"Option Movers | Emerging Markets Are Favored; Pinduoduo and Xpeng See Unusual Trading Activities","htmlText":"Market OverviewThe S&amp;P 500 ended down on Tuesday&nbsp;(Nov.&nbsp;29), with losses in Apple and Amazon ahead of an upcoming speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that could provide hints about magnitude of future interest rate hikes.&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.16% to end the session at 3,957.60 points.&nbsp;The Nasdaq declined 0.59% to 10,983.78 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% to 33,852.13 points.Regarding the options market, a total volume of&nbsp;28,350,276 contracts was traded&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tuesday, down 6% from the previous trading day.&nbsp;The trading of big tech stock options remained active.&nbsp;And&nbsp;the trading volume of options related to ETFs in emerging markets and China increased.&nbsp;Pinduoduo&nbsp;and&nbsp;Xpeng&nbsp;saw&nbsp;u","listText":"Market OverviewThe S&amp;P 500 ended down on Tuesday&nbsp;(Nov.&nbsp;29), with losses in Apple and Amazon ahead of an upcoming speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that could provide hints about magnitude of future interest rate hikes.&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.16% to end the session at 3,957.60 points.&nbsp;The Nasdaq declined 0.59% to 10,983.78 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% to 33,852.13 points.Regarding the options market, a total volume of&nbsp;28,350,276 contracts was traded&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tuesday, down 6% from the previous trading day.&nbsp;The trading of big tech stock options remained active.&nbsp;And&nbsp;the trading volume of options related to ETFs in emerging markets and China increased.&nbsp;Pinduoduo&nbsp;and&nbsp;Xpeng&nbsp;saw&nbsp;u","text":"Market OverviewThe S&P 500 ended down on Tuesday (Nov. 29), with losses in Apple and Amazon ahead of an upcoming speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that could provide hints about magnitude of future interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 declined 0.16% to end the session at 3,957.60 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.59% to 10,983.78 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% to 33,852.13 points.Regarding the options market, a total volume of 28,350,276 contracts was traded on Tuesday, down 6% from the previous trading day. The trading of big tech stock options remained active. And the trading volume of options related to ETFs in emerging markets and China increased. Pinduoduo and Xpeng saw u","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a41779c1c0e5dd17ce8a143d1365864","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2999da818bcdc6535107f709522fe18","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e446a9f259f24bce6d1e93f036c38847","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962505004","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961339159,"gmtCreate":1668831502771,"gmtModify":1676538119796,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961339159","repostId":"9961943478","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9961943478,"gmtCreate":1668824729095,"gmtModify":1676538118588,"author":{"id":"4109899949486810","authorId":"4109899949486810","name":"Tantiad","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/904c84540121050350274cfae4d99f1e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"title":"Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17","htmlText":"Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17 By Sophie Tanno, CNN CNN A Dutch court on Thursday found two Russians and a separatist Ukrainian guilty of mass murder for their involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. Igor Girkin, a former colonel of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), and Sergey Dubinskiy, who worked for Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, were convicted along with Ukrainian separatist Leonid Kharchenko, who is believed to have led a combat unit in Donetsk in July 2014. The three were sentenced to life in prison and ordered to pay the victims more than 16 million euros, but as the convictions were handed down in absentia, none of them are likely to serve their sentences","listText":"Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17 By Sophie Tanno, CNN CNN A Dutch court on Thursday found two Russians and a separatist Ukrainian guilty of mass murder for their involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. Igor Girkin, a former colonel of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), and Sergey Dubinskiy, who worked for Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, were convicted along with Ukrainian separatist Leonid Kharchenko, who is believed to have led a combat unit in Donetsk in July 2014. The three were sentenced to life in prison and ordered to pay the victims more than 16 million euros, but as the convictions were handed down in absentia, none of them are likely to serve their sentences","text":"Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17 By Sophie Tanno, CNN CNN A Dutch court on Thursday found two Russians and a separatist Ukrainian guilty of mass murder for their involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. Igor Girkin, a former colonel of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), and Sergey Dubinskiy, who worked for Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, were convicted along with Ukrainian separatist Leonid Kharchenko, who is believed to have led a combat unit in Donetsk in July 2014. The three were sentenced to life in prison and ordered to pay the victims more than 16 million euros, but as the convictions were handed down in absentia, none of them are likely to serve their sentences","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961943478","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989005567,"gmtCreate":1665841221359,"gmtModify":1676537671057,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hh","listText":"Hh","text":"Hh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989005567","repostId":"1189401539","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989005246,"gmtCreate":1665841212786,"gmtModify":1676537671057,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hh","listText":"Hh","text":"Hh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989005246","repostId":"1189401539","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189401539","pubTimestamp":1665793690,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189401539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-15 08:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189401539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF dow","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Our models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.</li><li>The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.</li><li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF&#39;s sector allocation likely feeds into a bear market capitulation.</li><li>Although a price action analysis suggests that a short-term reversal is possible, we remain bearish for at least another 12 weeks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f835961d9be01243f40cc1b008032e7a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Scott Olson</span></p><p>Today we follow up on our previous SPDR S&amp;P 500 TRUST ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) sell rating. Our previous article successfully argued that the yield curve and macroeconomic factors would wreak havoc. In today&#39;s article, our argument bases itself on aVIX index (VIX) forecast and the possible implications that might arise if the VIX trends upwards.</p><p>This analysis is based on a 12-week horizon; whereafter we&#39;ll revise our stance.</p><h2>VIX - Forecast</h2><p>It&#39;s assumed among market participants that the VIX has a negative correlation to the S&amp;P 500. The reason for this is that excess market volatility results in risk aversion. Thus, a rising VIX usually drains the stock market.</p><p>Nevertheless, I wanted to confirm the theory quantitatively. Therefore, I pulled a few datasheets from Yahoo Finance and did a correlation analysis. According to our correlation matrix, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF does indeed exhibit a negative.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ecc4d7ca8ede0e5c7996688a01b2c1\" tg-width=\"252\" tg-height=\"72\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Instead of speculating, I went ahead and used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the VIX&#39;s level for the next twelve trading weeks. I plugged in returns since the first trading day of 1990 and set confidence intervals of 95%.</p><p>The result shows the VIX could exceed the 40 handle within the next twelve weeks and drag down the stock market (or at least the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b72d8ee25a793e5136d48c969f5fc5c\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Note that the seasonal ARIMA model bases its inferences on its own retrospective data distributions. Thus, the provided model needs to be assessed in tandem with other influencing variables. Nonetheless, it&#39;s a valuable indicator; see the full distribution in the diagram below.</p><p><i>Denotations:</i></p><ul><li><i>Mean = Moving average (This is the actual forecast).</i></li><li><i>UL = Upper-Level Forecast</i></li><li><i>LL = Lower-Level Forecast</i></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d9751d117448cc474621bc3e9f81f9\" tg-width=\"318\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data From Yahoo Finance</span></p><h2>The Yield Curve And Macroeconomic Outlook</h2><p>The Yield Curve&#39;s inversion is an issue as this usually implies a recession&#39;s inbound. The inversion essentially conveys that interest rates will need to be dropped in the future to stimulate a struggling economy. In our opinion, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings yield will likely buckle (yield curve induced) before we reach a market bottom.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19af0b47778d64855d2393157c9159e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Gurufocus</span></p><p>Furthermore, parsimonious macroeconomic variables remain a concern. For example, U.S. inflation remains resilient despite the broader economy entering a contraction. In addition, the Eurozone&#39;s plagued with an energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine just keeps dragging on. Thus, we believe it will be some time before the fading economic climate seeks new pastures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f855faa67ddeb5d97bbf448dd99be2c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>SPY&#39;s Sector Allocation Assessed</h2><p>At first glance, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust hosts numerous high-risk constituents. I say this because of the ETF&#39;s exposure to both the technology and financial services sectors.</p><p>Technology stocks are usually categorized by their high-growth properties; however, they&#39;re not always the most recession-proof. Furthermore, the financial sector is known for its fragility during periods where recession risk is running high. Thus, I don&#39;t feel comfortable investing in an ETF with more than 38% of its capital invested in potentially high-risk/poor-return assets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0479a4bd348ce095f56311ab84a48f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Lastly, I would&#39;ve liked to have seen exposure to consumer defensive stocks instead of consumer cyclical stocks. Consumer cyclical stocks, as the name says, are cyclical and potentially dangerous to own in contractionary economic environments.</p><h2>An Argument For Upside</h2><p>At the end of the day, the financial markets don&#39;t always adhere to theoretical underpinnings. In addition, the zeitgeist tends to shift prematurely. I mean, the bull market during 2020&#39;s hard covid-19 lockdowns is proof.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ddd937a4d1120bf293da10bde59624\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Moreover, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust has recently surged out of a prolonged drawdown and now trades above its 10-day moving average. Additionally, the ETF&#39;s Relative-Strength-Index has broken through its oversold level and seems to be on an upward trajectory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e82ccebf14d8ec4c9d6cfd8d05f34e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><h2>Is The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust a Buy, Hold, or Sell?</h2><p>Based on quantitative analysis, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust could head into a downward spiral as we forecast the VIX to reach the 40s, in turn dragging stocks down into the abyss. Moreover, qualitative theory backs up the quantitative research as market-based theory suggests that most of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&#39;s constituents are prone to recession risk.</p><p>Although the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust has recently garnered momentum, we still believe the asset to be a sell, reaffirming our previous rating.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>Pearl Gray Equity and Research</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-15 08:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.The SPDR S&P 500 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189401539","content_text":"SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF's sector allocation likely feeds into a bear market capitulation.Although a price action analysis suggests that a short-term reversal is possible, we remain bearish for at least another 12 weeks.Scott OlsonToday we follow up on our previous SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) sell rating. Our previous article successfully argued that the yield curve and macroeconomic factors would wreak havoc. In today's article, our argument bases itself on aVIX index (VIX) forecast and the possible implications that might arise if the VIX trends upwards.This analysis is based on a 12-week horizon; whereafter we'll revise our stance.VIX - ForecastIt's assumed among market participants that the VIX has a negative correlation to the S&P 500. The reason for this is that excess market volatility results in risk aversion. Thus, a rising VIX usually drains the stock market.Nevertheless, I wanted to confirm the theory quantitatively. Therefore, I pulled a few datasheets from Yahoo Finance and did a correlation analysis. According to our correlation matrix, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF does indeed exhibit a negative.Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo FinanceInstead of speculating, I went ahead and used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the VIX's level for the next twelve trading weeks. I plugged in returns since the first trading day of 1990 and set confidence intervals of 95%.The result shows the VIX could exceed the 40 handle within the next twelve weeks and drag down the stock market (or at least the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF).Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo FinanceNote that the seasonal ARIMA model bases its inferences on its own retrospective data distributions. Thus, the provided model needs to be assessed in tandem with other influencing variables. Nonetheless, it's a valuable indicator; see the full distribution in the diagram below.Denotations:Mean = Moving average (This is the actual forecast).UL = Upper-Level ForecastLL = Lower-Level ForecastPearl Gray Equity and Research; Data From Yahoo FinanceThe Yield Curve And Macroeconomic OutlookThe Yield Curve's inversion is an issue as this usually implies a recession's inbound. The inversion essentially conveys that interest rates will need to be dropped in the future to stimulate a struggling economy. In our opinion, the S&P 500's earnings yield will likely buckle (yield curve induced) before we reach a market bottom.GurufocusFurthermore, parsimonious macroeconomic variables remain a concern. For example, U.S. inflation remains resilient despite the broader economy entering a contraction. In addition, the Eurozone's plagued with an energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine just keeps dragging on. Thus, we believe it will be some time before the fading economic climate seeks new pastures.Data by YChartsSPY's Sector Allocation AssessedAt first glance, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust hosts numerous high-risk constituents. I say this because of the ETF's exposure to both the technology and financial services sectors.Technology stocks are usually categorized by their high-growth properties; however, they're not always the most recession-proof. Furthermore, the financial sector is known for its fragility during periods where recession risk is running high. Thus, I don't feel comfortable investing in an ETF with more than 38% of its capital invested in potentially high-risk/poor-return assets.Seeking AlphaLastly, I would've liked to have seen exposure to consumer defensive stocks instead of consumer cyclical stocks. Consumer cyclical stocks, as the name says, are cyclical and potentially dangerous to own in contractionary economic environments.An Argument For UpsideAt the end of the day, the financial markets don't always adhere to theoretical underpinnings. In addition, the zeitgeist tends to shift prematurely. I mean, the bull market during 2020's hard covid-19 lockdowns is proof.Data by YChartsMoreover, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently surged out of a prolonged drawdown and now trades above its 10-day moving average. Additionally, the ETF's Relative-Strength-Index has broken through its oversold level and seems to be on an upward trajectory.Seeking AlphaIs The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust a Buy, Hold, or Sell?Based on quantitative analysis, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust could head into a downward spiral as we forecast the VIX to reach the 40s, in turn dragging stocks down into the abyss. Moreover, qualitative theory backs up the quantitative research as market-based theory suggests that most of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's constituents are prone to recession risk.Although the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently garnered momentum, we still believe the asset to be a sell, reaffirming our previous rating.This article is written by Pearl Gray Equity and Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911829578,"gmtCreate":1664176098094,"gmtModify":1676537403366,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911829578","repostId":"9911862799","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9911862799,"gmtCreate":1664174805112,"gmtModify":1676537403070,"author":{"id":"4119072940563712","authorId":"4119072940563712","name":"TradingLounge","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3847b140dde3f0115931dbd158233e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"Pepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis September 26 2022","htmlText":"Pepsico Inc., Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart,September 26 2022,&nbsp;PEPStock Market Analysis:It has moved as predicted from the last forecast. However as I cannot see five waves from the last move to the upside, I have reasons to believe we will get another corrective leg.PEP Elliott Wave count:&nbsp;&nbsp;{b} of 2.PEPTrading Strategy:Looking for short off the end of wave (c) of {b}.PEPTechnical Indicators:200EMA acting as support. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Source: Tradinglounge.com Get Trial Here!Pepsico Inc.,PEP: 4-hour Chart,September 26 2022Pepsico Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPEP Stock Market Analysis: Looking for wave (c) to reach the point of control up where wave (b) of {a} is.PEPElliott Wave count:&nbsp;(b) of {b} PEP Te","listText":"Pepsico Inc., Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart,September 26 2022,&nbsp;PEPStock Market Analysis:It has moved as predicted from the last forecast. However as I cannot see five waves from the last move to the upside, I have reasons to believe we will get another corrective leg.PEP Elliott Wave count:&nbsp;&nbsp;{b} of 2.PEPTrading Strategy:Looking for short off the end of wave (c) of {b}.PEPTechnical Indicators:200EMA acting as support. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Source: Tradinglounge.com Get Trial Here!Pepsico Inc.,PEP: 4-hour Chart,September 26 2022Pepsico Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPEP Stock Market Analysis: Looking for wave (c) to reach the point of control up where wave (b) of {a} is.PEPElliott Wave count:&nbsp;(b) of {b} PEP Te","text":"Pepsico Inc., Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart,September 26 2022, PEPStock Market Analysis:It has moved as predicted from the last forecast. However as I cannot see five waves from the last move to the upside, I have reasons to believe we will get another corrective leg.PEP Elliott Wave count: {b} of 2.PEPTrading Strategy:Looking for short off the end of wave (c) of {b}.PEPTechnical Indicators:200EMA acting as support. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Source: Tradinglounge.com Get Trial Here!Pepsico Inc.,PEP: 4-hour Chart,September 26 2022Pepsico Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPEP Stock Market Analysis: Looking for wave (c) to reach the point of control up where wave (b) of {a} is.PEPElliott Wave count: (b) of {b} PEP Te","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/35de19bec867b24311c1c6fa749dc5b1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911862799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913544531,"gmtCreate":1664029759324,"gmtModify":1676537381277,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"j","listText":"j","text":"j","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913544531","repostId":"1148133879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148133879","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1664019705,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148133879?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-24 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Is How Netflix Could Lose High-Profile Comics From Releasing Their New Specials With Them","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148133879","media":"Benzinga","summary":"KEY POINTSNetflix will license new specials for comics for two years for roughly $200,000.This will ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>KEY POINTS</p><ul><li>Netflix will license new specials for comics for two years for roughly $200,000.</li><li>This will provide artists with more control over their work, especially if they want to post social media snippets of their best material.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix Inc</a> has turned into more than just a streaming service for TV shows and movies. It has also been airing numerous comedy and other types of specials for its 220 million subscribers.</p><p>What Happened: The streaming giant is planning to change how it compensates comedians who have their shows on the channel.</p><p>In certain scenarios, Netflix will license new comedy specials for two years for roughly $200,000 instead of buying them outright, which Netflix has previously done for up to $1 million, per the Wall Street Journal.</p><p>Comedian Whitney Cummings, who released her newest special this summer with Netflix called &#34;Jokes,&#34; reportedly struck a two-year deal with Netflix, the news outlet cited sources familiar with the agreement.</p><p>Why It Matters: Comedians will now have to pay for their own production costs under this new deal, as Netflix looks to keep its content spending in the range of $17 billion over the coming years.</p><p>As the agreement comes to an end, the artist will be able to receive full control of the rights to their material and be able to use it for future work, according to the Wall Street Journal.</p><p>With Netflix becoming more conscientious of its capital spending, comics such as Bryan Callen are going to Alphabet Inc.&#39;s GOOGGOOGL subsidiary YouTube to avoid losing the rights to their specials, as well as leaving money off the table. &#34;Flagrant&#34; podcast host Andrew Schulz has turned to a company such as Moment House to privately release specials without having to cut out jokes, which streaming services may find too offensive.</p><p>Since Netflix is offering less for specials, comics may find it more difficult to cover production costs, causing high-profile comics to venture out and release specials on their own.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4281051a2328972c107bdfc4156e81\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1154\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Is How Netflix Could Lose High-Profile Comics From Releasing Their New Specials With Them</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Is How Netflix Could Lose High-Profile Comics From Releasing Their New Specials With Them\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-24 19:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>KEY POINTS</p><ul><li>Netflix will license new specials for comics for two years for roughly $200,000.</li><li>This will provide artists with more control over their work, especially if they want to post social media snippets of their best material.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix Inc</a> has turned into more than just a streaming service for TV shows and movies. It has also been airing numerous comedy and other types of specials for its 220 million subscribers.</p><p>What Happened: The streaming giant is planning to change how it compensates comedians who have their shows on the channel.</p><p>In certain scenarios, Netflix will license new comedy specials for two years for roughly $200,000 instead of buying them outright, which Netflix has previously done for up to $1 million, per the Wall Street Journal.</p><p>Comedian Whitney Cummings, who released her newest special this summer with Netflix called &#34;Jokes,&#34; reportedly struck a two-year deal with Netflix, the news outlet cited sources familiar with the agreement.</p><p>Why It Matters: Comedians will now have to pay for their own production costs under this new deal, as Netflix looks to keep its content spending in the range of $17 billion over the coming years.</p><p>As the agreement comes to an end, the artist will be able to receive full control of the rights to their material and be able to use it for future work, according to the Wall Street Journal.</p><p>With Netflix becoming more conscientious of its capital spending, comics such as Bryan Callen are going to Alphabet Inc.&#39;s GOOGGOOGL subsidiary YouTube to avoid losing the rights to their specials, as well as leaving money off the table. &#34;Flagrant&#34; podcast host Andrew Schulz has turned to a company such as Moment House to privately release specials without having to cut out jokes, which streaming services may find too offensive.</p><p>Since Netflix is offering less for specials, comics may find it more difficult to cover production costs, causing high-profile comics to venture out and release specials on their own.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4281051a2328972c107bdfc4156e81\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1154\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148133879","content_text":"KEY POINTSNetflix will license new specials for comics for two years for roughly $200,000.This will provide artists with more control over their work, especially if they want to post social media snippets of their best material.Netflix Inc has turned into more than just a streaming service for TV shows and movies. It has also been airing numerous comedy and other types of specials for its 220 million subscribers.What Happened: The streaming giant is planning to change how it compensates comedians who have their shows on the channel.In certain scenarios, Netflix will license new comedy specials for two years for roughly $200,000 instead of buying them outright, which Netflix has previously done for up to $1 million, per the Wall Street Journal.Comedian Whitney Cummings, who released her newest special this summer with Netflix called \"Jokes,\" reportedly struck a two-year deal with Netflix, the news outlet cited sources familiar with the agreement.Why It Matters: Comedians will now have to pay for their own production costs under this new deal, as Netflix looks to keep its content spending in the range of $17 billion over the coming years.As the agreement comes to an end, the artist will be able to receive full control of the rights to their material and be able to use it for future work, according to the Wall Street Journal.With Netflix becoming more conscientious of its capital spending, comics such as Bryan Callen are going to Alphabet Inc.'s GOOGGOOGL subsidiary YouTube to avoid losing the rights to their specials, as well as leaving money off the table. \"Flagrant\" podcast host Andrew Schulz has turned to a company such as Moment House to privately release specials without having to cut out jokes, which streaming services may find too offensive.Since Netflix is offering less for specials, comics may find it more difficult to cover production costs, causing high-profile comics to venture out and release specials on their own.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933163422,"gmtCreate":1662253098666,"gmtModify":1676537023677,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hh","listText":"Hh","text":"Hh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933163422","repostId":"1111559856","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111559856","pubTimestamp":1662252810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111559856?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-04 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bulls and Bears Of The Week: Disney, Amazon, Uber, Apple And Why Netflix Is Facing A Defamation Suit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111559856","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSDisney may soon launch a membership program, which could be similar to Amazon's Pri","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>ZINGER KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Disney may soon launch a membership program, which could be similar to Amazon&#39;s Prime service.</li><li>Snap Inc, the parent company of the social media app Snapchat, plans to lay off around 20% of its workforce.</li></ul><p>Benzinga has examined the prospects for many investors&#39; favorite stocks over the past week, here&#39;s a look at some of our top stories.</p><p>The markets were making a comeback heading into Friday, but then collapsed in the final four hours of trading this week to finish off a third straight week of losses. The S&amp;P 500 fell by 2.73% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by a more modest 1.31% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week 1.07% lower.</p><p>Ahead of Labor Day weekend, the Labor Department announced that 315,000 were added in August, lower than the 318,000 expected by economists. Unemployment was up by two-tenths of a percent to 3.7% in August. Investors are now looking ahead to the August CPI number, which will be announced on Sept. 13, to gauge further Fed action on interest rates.</p><p>Benzinga continues to examine the prospects for many of the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week&#39;s most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.</p><p><b>The Bulls</b></p><p>&#34;Disney Seeks To Pull Off An Amazon With &#39;Prime-Like&#39; Bundle Service: WSJ,&#34; by Shanthi Rexaline, highlights a reported plan by <b>The Walt Disney Company</b> to launch a membership program, which could be similar to <b>Amazon.com Inc</b>’s Prime service.</p><p>&#34;Is Uber Stock A &#39;Screaming&#39; Buy? Why Josh Brown Believes The Bottom Is In,&#34; by Adam Eckert, explains why Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO <b>Josh Brown</b> thinks <b>Uber Technologies Inc</b> stock has found its footing.</p><p>In &#34;Apple Said To Be Zeroing In On This Word For AR/VR Products,&#34; Shanthi Rexaline writes about a new trademark filing by <b>Apple Inc</b> which may be foreshadowing plans for an Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality headset.</p><p><b>The Bears</b></p><p>&#34;Snap Reportedly Plans To Lay Off 20% Of Workforce Just Weeks After CEO Closed Deal For $120M Mansion,&#34; by Aaron Bry, looks at this week&#39;s announced plans by <b>Snap Inc,</b> the parent company of the social media app <b>Snapchat</b>, to lay off around 20% of its workforce.</p><p>&#34;&#39;Hold Netflix Accountable&#39;: &#39;Inventing Anna&#39; Series Prompts Defamation Lawsuit From Anna Delvey&#39;s Ex-Friend,&#34; by AJ Fabino, explains why <b>Netflix Inc</b> is facing a defamation lawsuit over its popular drama miniseries &#34;Inventing Anna.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Did General Motors CEO Mary Barra Tap The Brakes On Plan To Pass Tesla In EVs By 2025?&#34; by Adam Eckert, outlines comments made by <b>General Motors Company</b> CEO<b>Mary Barra</b> which made observers question her goal to pass Tesla in EVs by 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bulls and Bears Of The Week: Disney, Amazon, Uber, Apple And Why Netflix Is Facing A Defamation Suit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBulls and Bears Of The Week: Disney, Amazon, Uber, Apple And Why Netflix Is Facing A Defamation Suit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-04 08:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/22/09/28738863/bulls-and-bears-of-the-week><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSDisney may soon launch a membership program, which could be similar to Amazon's Prime service.Snap Inc, the parent company of the social media app Snapchat, plans to lay off around ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/22/09/28738863/bulls-and-bears-of-the-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","AAPL":"苹果","UBER":"优步","DIS":"迪士尼","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/22/09/28738863/bulls-and-bears-of-the-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111559856","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSDisney may soon launch a membership program, which could be similar to Amazon's Prime service.Snap Inc, the parent company of the social media app Snapchat, plans to lay off around 20% of its workforce.Benzinga has examined the prospects for many investors' favorite stocks over the past week, here's a look at some of our top stories.The markets were making a comeback heading into Friday, but then collapsed in the final four hours of trading this week to finish off a third straight week of losses. The S&P 500 fell by 2.73% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by a more modest 1.31% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week 1.07% lower.Ahead of Labor Day weekend, the Labor Department announced that 315,000 were added in August, lower than the 318,000 expected by economists. Unemployment was up by two-tenths of a percent to 3.7% in August. Investors are now looking ahead to the August CPI number, which will be announced on Sept. 13, to gauge further Fed action on interest rates.Benzinga continues to examine the prospects for many of the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week's most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.The Bulls\"Disney Seeks To Pull Off An Amazon With 'Prime-Like' Bundle Service: WSJ,\" by Shanthi Rexaline, highlights a reported plan by The Walt Disney Company to launch a membership program, which could be similar to Amazon.com Inc’s Prime service.\"Is Uber Stock A 'Screaming' Buy? Why Josh Brown Believes The Bottom Is In,\" by Adam Eckert, explains why Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown thinks Uber Technologies Inc stock has found its footing.In \"Apple Said To Be Zeroing In On This Word For AR/VR Products,\" Shanthi Rexaline writes about a new trademark filing by Apple Inc which may be foreshadowing plans for an Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality headset.The Bears\"Snap Reportedly Plans To Lay Off 20% Of Workforce Just Weeks After CEO Closed Deal For $120M Mansion,\" by Aaron Bry, looks at this week's announced plans by Snap Inc, the parent company of the social media app Snapchat, to lay off around 20% of its workforce.\"'Hold Netflix Accountable': 'Inventing Anna' Series Prompts Defamation Lawsuit From Anna Delvey's Ex-Friend,\" by AJ Fabino, explains why Netflix Inc is facing a defamation lawsuit over its popular drama miniseries \"Inventing Anna.\"\"Did General Motors CEO Mary Barra Tap The Brakes On Plan To Pass Tesla In EVs By 2025?\" by Adam Eckert, outlines comments made by General Motors Company CEOMary Barra which made observers question her goal to pass Tesla in EVs by 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939943305,"gmtCreate":1662046014910,"gmtModify":1676536780139,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939943305","repostId":"1163352550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163352550","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662041859,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163352550?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 22:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163352550","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%.Block, Canaan, The9, Riot Blo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>, Canaan, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">The9</a>, Riot Blockchain, Bit Digital and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a> fell between 1% and 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7deb9c73609c474e7660ae64ae8190b9\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-01 22:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>, Canaan, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">The9</a>, Riot Blockchain, Bit Digital and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a> fell between 1% and 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7deb9c73609c474e7660ae64ae8190b9\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","BK4539":"次新股","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","SQ":"Block","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163352550","content_text":"Crypto Stocks Slid in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Dropping 6%.Block, Canaan, The9, Riot Blockchain, Bit Digital and Marathon Digital fell between 1% and 5%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939943994,"gmtCreate":1662046004420,"gmtModify":1676536779809,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hh","listText":"Hh","text":"Hh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939943994","repostId":"1196292891","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196292891","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662045206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196292891?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Tumbles More Than 10%; Semiconductor ETFs Slide","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196292891","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia stock tumbles more than 10% in morning trading.Nvidia said on Wednesday that U.S. officials t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock tumbles more than 10% in morning trading.</p><p>Nvidia said on Wednesday that U.S. officials told the company to stop exporting two top computing chips for AI work to China.</p><p>The ban, which affects its A100 and H100 chips designed to speed up machine learning tasks, could interfere with the development of the H100, the flagship chip the company announced this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23938ce7c750bd5511a60ea6b0cf2bae\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia Corp said on Thursday that the U.S. government has allowed exports and in-country transfers needed to develop the company&#39;s H100 artificial intelligence chip.</p><p>The government has also authorized Nvidia to fulfill orders of the A100 and H100 AI chips via its Hong Kong facility through Sept. 1, 2023.</p><p>popular chip ETFs like the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">VanEck Semiconductor ETF</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXX\">iShares Semiconductor ETF</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XSD\">SPDR S&amp;P Semiconductor ETF</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSI\">Invesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3 Shares</a> have all declined.</p><p>The semiconductor segment of the market is now the most significant drag on Wall Street on Thursday as the market segment as a whole is lower by 4.1%.</p><p>Daily price action: SMH-4.1%, SOXX-4.2%, XSD-5.5%, PSI-4.7%, SOXL-12.6%, NVDA-10.6%, and AMD-6.5%.</p><p>Year-to-date price action: SMH-34.8%, SOXX-35.9%, XSD-34.9%, PSI37.5%, SOXL-83.1%, NVDA-55.2%, and AMD-47.2%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Tumbles More Than 10%; Semiconductor ETFs Slide</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Tumbles More Than 10%; Semiconductor ETFs Slide\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-01 23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock tumbles more than 10% in morning trading.</p><p>Nvidia said on Wednesday that U.S. officials told the company to stop exporting two top computing chips for AI work to China.</p><p>The ban, which affects its A100 and H100 chips designed to speed up machine learning tasks, could interfere with the development of the H100, the flagship chip the company announced this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23938ce7c750bd5511a60ea6b0cf2bae\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia Corp said on Thursday that the U.S. government has allowed exports and in-country transfers needed to develop the company&#39;s H100 artificial intelligence chip.</p><p>The government has also authorized Nvidia to fulfill orders of the A100 and H100 AI chips via its Hong Kong facility through Sept. 1, 2023.</p><p>popular chip ETFs like the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">VanEck Semiconductor ETF</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXX\">iShares Semiconductor ETF</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XSD\">SPDR S&amp;P Semiconductor ETF</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSI\">Invesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3 Shares</a> have all declined.</p><p>The semiconductor segment of the market is now the most significant drag on Wall Street on Thursday as the market segment as a whole is lower by 4.1%.</p><p>Daily price action: SMH-4.1%, SOXX-4.2%, XSD-5.5%, PSI-4.7%, SOXL-12.6%, NVDA-10.6%, and AMD-6.5%.</p><p>Year-to-date price action: SMH-34.8%, SOXX-35.9%, XSD-34.9%, PSI37.5%, SOXL-83.1%, NVDA-55.2%, and AMD-47.2%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196292891","content_text":"Nvidia stock tumbles more than 10% in morning trading.Nvidia said on Wednesday that U.S. officials told the company to stop exporting two top computing chips for AI work to China.The ban, which affects its A100 and H100 chips designed to speed up machine learning tasks, could interfere with the development of the H100, the flagship chip the company announced this year.Nvidia Corp said on Thursday that the U.S. government has allowed exports and in-country transfers needed to develop the company's H100 artificial intelligence chip.The government has also authorized Nvidia to fulfill orders of the A100 and H100 AI chips via its Hong Kong facility through Sept. 1, 2023.popular chip ETFs like the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, iShares Semiconductor ETF, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF, Invesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF , and Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3 Shares have all declined.The semiconductor segment of the market is now the most significant drag on Wall Street on Thursday as the market segment as a whole is lower by 4.1%.Daily price action: SMH-4.1%, SOXX-4.2%, XSD-5.5%, PSI-4.7%, SOXL-12.6%, NVDA-10.6%, and AMD-6.5%.Year-to-date price action: SMH-34.8%, SOXX-35.9%, XSD-34.9%, PSI37.5%, SOXL-83.1%, NVDA-55.2%, and AMD-47.2%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939949548,"gmtCreate":1662045994786,"gmtModify":1676536779553,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hh","listText":"Hh","text":"Hh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939949548","repostId":"1160870826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160870826","pubTimestamp":1662045526,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160870826?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160870826","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"KEY POINTSThe broad-based S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.Rather than being","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>KEY POINTS</p><ul><li>The broad-based S&amp;P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.</li><li>Rather than being chased to the sideline, billionaire investors have stood their ground and put their money to work.</li><li>These seven stocks have been the apple of select billionaires&#39; eyes.</li></ul><p>Although you probably don&#39;t need the reminder, it&#39;s been a rough year on Wall Street. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 produced its worst first-half return since 1970. Meanwhile, the growth-centric Nasdaq Composite plunged 34% on a peak-to-trough basis since hitting its all-time closing high in November. Everything from weak economic growth and historically high inflation to Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine further upsetting the global energy supply chain has contributed to this challenging year.</p><p>Yet, in spite of the stock market plunging throughout much of the year, billionaire investors have stood their ground. Billionaire money managers are well aware that every notable pullback in the market has proved to be a buying opportunity over the long run.</p><p>Based on recent 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, it&#39;s become clear that billionaire fund managers have been buyers as the market plunges. Here&#39;s what seven prominent billionaires have been buying.</p><h3>1. Paul Singer: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal Holdings</a></h3><p>Billionaire activist investor Paul Singer of Elliott Investment Management has been a busy bee in 2022. Most notably, he&#39;s taken a roughly $2 billion stake in fintech stock PayPal Holdings (PYPL), which was disclosed by PayPal in its second-quarter earnings release.</p><p>What&#39;s interesting about this position is that Singer often invests in struggling companies. Although PayPal&#39;s share price has taken a big hit as pandemic-related valuations deflate, PayPal&#39;s operating performance shows a company that&#39;s clearly not hurting. Even with U.S. gross domestic product falling in back-to-back quarters, PayPal has maintained double-digit total payment volume growth on a constant-currency basis.</p><p>More importantly, user engagement hasn&#39;t slowed down. When 2020 came to a close, the average active account completed just shy of 41 transactions over the trailing year. As of June 30, 2022, this average active account hadcompleted nearly 49 transactions over the trailing 12 months.  With engagement trends headed in the right direction and digital payment growth still in its very early innings, I&#39;d be surprised if Singer&#39;s investment ultimately ended up in the red.</p><h3>2. Philippe Laffont: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">Upstart Holdings</a></h3><p>Philippe Laffont may not be a household name among billionaire money managers, but he successfully oversees Coatue Management, a hedge fund with almost $8.3 billion in assets under management. In the latest quarter, Laffont added almost $75 million in shares of cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings (UPST).</p><p>Upstart aims to completely turn the traditional loan-vetting process on its head. It uses artificial intelligence (AI) to completely automate and approve about three-quarters of all loans processed. Not only is this saving the roughly six dozen financial institutions Upstart is partnered with time and money, but it&#39;s giving loan applicants who might otherwise be denied through the traditional vetting process an opportunity. Upstart-vetted loans have produced similar loan delinquency rates as traditional loans, despite a lower average credit score for Upstart-approved applicants.</p><p>The other lure for Upstart is its potential for expansion. Until last year, Upstart almost exclusively focused on personal loans. With the company now expanding into auto loans and small business loans, its addressable market has increased tenfold.</p><h3>3. Warren Buffett: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental Petroleum</a></h3><p>The Oracle of Omaha, who&#39;s been CEO of Berkshire Hathaway since 1965, probably needs no introduction. Among the16 stocks Warren Buffett has purchased this year, none has raised more eyebrows than oil stock Occidental Petroleum. Berkshire has acquired nearly 188.4 million shares of Occidental this year, as of Aug. 8.</p><p>Why Occidental Petroleum? The best guess is that Buffett strongly believes crude oil and natural gas prices will remain elevated for years to come. This is a forecast that can certainly be supported by reduced capital investments in the wake of the pandemic, as well as Russia&#39;s aforementioned invasion of Ukraine. With no quick fixes to global supply woes, oil and natural gas could very easily support above-average spot prices for years.</p><p>But what makes Occidental such an odd Buffett stockis its balance sheet. The Oracle of Omaha normally buys stakes in businesses with strong brand names, exceptional leadership, and rock-solid balance sheets. Occidental is more highly levered than most integrated oil and gas companies. In other words, this is a riskier investment than we&#39;re used to seeing from Buffett.</p><h3>4. Steve Cohen: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings</a></h3><p>Billionaire Steve Cohen, who&#39;s known just as much for owning baseball&#39;s New York Mets as he is for running Point72 Asset Management, has been an active buyer of cybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings as the market plunges. Cohen&#39;s fund bought close to 820,000 shares of CrowdStrike during the second quarter.</p><p>Aside from the fact that cybersecurity solutions have evolved into a basic necessity service in any economic environment, what allows CrowdStrike to stand out is its AI-driven Falcon platform. Falcon oversees about 1 trillion events daily and has proved superior to the on-premises competition at identifying and responding to potential threats.</p><p>Although CrowdStrike has had no trouble growing its subscriber base over the years, what&#39;s far more impressive is how the company has been able to encourage existing clients to spend more. A little over five years ago, just 9% of the company&#39;s clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. As of the end of April 2022, 71% of existing clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. This is CrowdStrike&#39;s not-so-subtle key to superior operating margins and its amazing revenue retention rate.</p><h3>5. Jim Simons: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a></h3><p>Billionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies has thousands upon thousands of positions. However, cloud-based e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP 0.93%) became one of Renaissance&#39;s largest positions during the second quarter, with a greater than 14-million-share aggregate buy.</p><p>Despite shares coming under heavy selling pressure due to the company&#39;s nosebleed valuation and recent weakness in retail sales as a whole, Shopify looks like a giant in the making. Aided by the pandemic, the gross merchandise value transacted on Shopify&#39;s platforms (as of the June-ended quarter) has grown by an annual average of 50% over the past three years.  What&#39;s more, the company believes it has a $153 billion addressable market just with small businesses. This doesn&#39;t even factor in the inroads the company has made with larger companies.</p><p>Innovation should also be key for Shopify&#39;s long-term outlook. The introduction of Shop Pay, a buy now, pay later service designed to help merchants serve more customers, should benefit nicely during long-winded periods of economic expansion.</p><h3>6. Ray Dalio: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a></h3><p>Bridgewater Associates&#39; billionaire money manager Ray Dalio has also been an active buyer. Dalio chose to pile into CVS Health (CVS -0.66%) as the market plunged. Bridgewater bought close to 1.94 million shares during the second quarter, which increased the fund&#39;s stake by 159% from the March-ended quarter.</p><p>The beauty of healthcare stocks is that they&#39;re defensive. People can&#39;t control when they get sick, which means there&#39;s always demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services.</p><p>On a more company-specific basis, CVS Health has benefited from its vertical integration. Its acquisition of health insurer Aetna in 2018 lifted its organic growth rate, provided ample cost synergies, and gave more than 20 million insured Aetna members a reason to stay within the CVS Health network.</p><p>Additionally, CVS has been reaping the rewards of its HealthHUB health clinics. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers have demonstrated they&#39;re eager for quick solutions to minor illnesses and injuries, as well as supplemental care for chronic conditions. The roughly 1,500 HealthHUBs CVS operates are facilitating these interactions, which have the potential to boost customer loyalty and drive repeat visits.</p><h3>7. Jeff Yass: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a></h3><p>Last but not least, billionaire Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International has been buying FAANG stock Amazon as the market plunges. Susquehanna added close to 6.6 million shares of Amazon during the second quarter, which increased its stake to approximately 15.2 million shares.</p><p>Although Amazon is best known for its dominant online marketplace, which is estimated to bring in 40% of U.S. retail sales in 2022, per eMarketer, it&#39;s the company&#39;s considerably higher-margin ancillary operations that make it such an ideal buy.</p><p>For instance, Amazon&#39;s online marketplace has helped attract more than 200 million global Prime subscribers. With almost $35 billion in annual run-rate sales from subscription services, Amazon is able to divert plenty of capital to its fast-growing logistics network and other supercharged growth projects.</p><p>However, Amazon&#39;s future is undeniably linked to cloud infrastructure segment Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS brought in 31% of cloud spending during the second quarter, according to estimates from Canalys.  More importantly, AWS is responsible for generating the bulk of Amazon&#39;s operating cash flow despite accounting for just a sixth of the company&#39;s net sales. As AWS grows into a larger percentage of total sales, Amazon&#39;s cash flow can soar.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/01/billionaires-buying-7-stocks-as-the-market-plunges/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe broad-based S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.Rather than being chased to the sideline, billionaire investors have stood their ground and put their money to work....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/01/billionaires-buying-7-stocks-as-the-market-plunges/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","PYPL":"PayPal","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","CVS":"西维斯健康","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/01/billionaires-buying-7-stocks-as-the-market-plunges/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160870826","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe broad-based S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.Rather than being chased to the sideline, billionaire investors have stood their ground and put their money to work.These seven stocks have been the apple of select billionaires' eyes.Although you probably don't need the reminder, it's been a rough year on Wall Street. The benchmark S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return since 1970. Meanwhile, the growth-centric Nasdaq Composite plunged 34% on a peak-to-trough basis since hitting its all-time closing high in November. Everything from weak economic growth and historically high inflation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine further upsetting the global energy supply chain has contributed to this challenging year.Yet, in spite of the stock market plunging throughout much of the year, billionaire investors have stood their ground. Billionaire money managers are well aware that every notable pullback in the market has proved to be a buying opportunity over the long run.Based on recent 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, it's become clear that billionaire fund managers have been buyers as the market plunges. Here's what seven prominent billionaires have been buying.1. Paul Singer: PayPal HoldingsBillionaire activist investor Paul Singer of Elliott Investment Management has been a busy bee in 2022. Most notably, he's taken a roughly $2 billion stake in fintech stock PayPal Holdings (PYPL), which was disclosed by PayPal in its second-quarter earnings release.What's interesting about this position is that Singer often invests in struggling companies. Although PayPal's share price has taken a big hit as pandemic-related valuations deflate, PayPal's operating performance shows a company that's clearly not hurting. Even with U.S. gross domestic product falling in back-to-back quarters, PayPal has maintained double-digit total payment volume growth on a constant-currency basis.More importantly, user engagement hasn't slowed down. When 2020 came to a close, the average active account completed just shy of 41 transactions over the trailing year. As of June 30, 2022, this average active account hadcompleted nearly 49 transactions over the trailing 12 months.  With engagement trends headed in the right direction and digital payment growth still in its very early innings, I'd be surprised if Singer's investment ultimately ended up in the red.2. Philippe Laffont: Upstart HoldingsPhilippe Laffont may not be a household name among billionaire money managers, but he successfully oversees Coatue Management, a hedge fund with almost $8.3 billion in assets under management. In the latest quarter, Laffont added almost $75 million in shares of cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings (UPST).Upstart aims to completely turn the traditional loan-vetting process on its head. It uses artificial intelligence (AI) to completely automate and approve about three-quarters of all loans processed. Not only is this saving the roughly six dozen financial institutions Upstart is partnered with time and money, but it's giving loan applicants who might otherwise be denied through the traditional vetting process an opportunity. Upstart-vetted loans have produced similar loan delinquency rates as traditional loans, despite a lower average credit score for Upstart-approved applicants.The other lure for Upstart is its potential for expansion. Until last year, Upstart almost exclusively focused on personal loans. With the company now expanding into auto loans and small business loans, its addressable market has increased tenfold.3. Warren Buffett: Occidental PetroleumThe Oracle of Omaha, who's been CEO of Berkshire Hathaway since 1965, probably needs no introduction. Among the16 stocks Warren Buffett has purchased this year, none has raised more eyebrows than oil stock Occidental Petroleum. Berkshire has acquired nearly 188.4 million shares of Occidental this year, as of Aug. 8.Why Occidental Petroleum? The best guess is that Buffett strongly believes crude oil and natural gas prices will remain elevated for years to come. This is a forecast that can certainly be supported by reduced capital investments in the wake of the pandemic, as well as Russia's aforementioned invasion of Ukraine. With no quick fixes to global supply woes, oil and natural gas could very easily support above-average spot prices for years.But what makes Occidental such an odd Buffett stockis its balance sheet. The Oracle of Omaha normally buys stakes in businesses with strong brand names, exceptional leadership, and rock-solid balance sheets. Occidental is more highly levered than most integrated oil and gas companies. In other words, this is a riskier investment than we're used to seeing from Buffett.4. Steve Cohen: CrowdStrike HoldingsBillionaire Steve Cohen, who's known just as much for owning baseball's New York Mets as he is for running Point72 Asset Management, has been an active buyer of cybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings as the market plunges. Cohen's fund bought close to 820,000 shares of CrowdStrike during the second quarter.Aside from the fact that cybersecurity solutions have evolved into a basic necessity service in any economic environment, what allows CrowdStrike to stand out is its AI-driven Falcon platform. Falcon oversees about 1 trillion events daily and has proved superior to the on-premises competition at identifying and responding to potential threats.Although CrowdStrike has had no trouble growing its subscriber base over the years, what's far more impressive is how the company has been able to encourage existing clients to spend more. A little over five years ago, just 9% of the company's clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. As of the end of April 2022, 71% of existing clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. This is CrowdStrike's not-so-subtle key to superior operating margins and its amazing revenue retention rate.5. Jim Simons: ShopifyBillionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies has thousands upon thousands of positions. However, cloud-based e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP 0.93%) became one of Renaissance's largest positions during the second quarter, with a greater than 14-million-share aggregate buy.Despite shares coming under heavy selling pressure due to the company's nosebleed valuation and recent weakness in retail sales as a whole, Shopify looks like a giant in the making. Aided by the pandemic, the gross merchandise value transacted on Shopify's platforms (as of the June-ended quarter) has grown by an annual average of 50% over the past three years.  What's more, the company believes it has a $153 billion addressable market just with small businesses. This doesn't even factor in the inroads the company has made with larger companies.Innovation should also be key for Shopify's long-term outlook. The introduction of Shop Pay, a buy now, pay later service designed to help merchants serve more customers, should benefit nicely during long-winded periods of economic expansion.6. Ray Dalio: CVS HealthBridgewater Associates' billionaire money manager Ray Dalio has also been an active buyer. Dalio chose to pile into CVS Health (CVS -0.66%) as the market plunged. Bridgewater bought close to 1.94 million shares during the second quarter, which increased the fund's stake by 159% from the March-ended quarter.The beauty of healthcare stocks is that they're defensive. People can't control when they get sick, which means there's always demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services.On a more company-specific basis, CVS Health has benefited from its vertical integration. Its acquisition of health insurer Aetna in 2018 lifted its organic growth rate, provided ample cost synergies, and gave more than 20 million insured Aetna members a reason to stay within the CVS Health network.Additionally, CVS has been reaping the rewards of its HealthHUB health clinics. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers have demonstrated they're eager for quick solutions to minor illnesses and injuries, as well as supplemental care for chronic conditions. The roughly 1,500 HealthHUBs CVS operates are facilitating these interactions, which have the potential to boost customer loyalty and drive repeat visits.7. Jeff Yass: AmazonLast but not least, billionaire Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International has been buying FAANG stock Amazon as the market plunges. Susquehanna added close to 6.6 million shares of Amazon during the second quarter, which increased its stake to approximately 15.2 million shares.Although Amazon is best known for its dominant online marketplace, which is estimated to bring in 40% of U.S. retail sales in 2022, per eMarketer, it's the company's considerably higher-margin ancillary operations that make it such an ideal buy.For instance, Amazon's online marketplace has helped attract more than 200 million global Prime subscribers. With almost $35 billion in annual run-rate sales from subscription services, Amazon is able to divert plenty of capital to its fast-growing logistics network and other supercharged growth projects.However, Amazon's future is undeniably linked to cloud infrastructure segment Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS brought in 31% of cloud spending during the second quarter, according to estimates from Canalys.  More importantly, AWS is responsible for generating the bulk of Amazon's operating cash flow despite accounting for just a sixth of the company's net sales. As AWS grows into a larger percentage of total sales, Amazon's cash flow can soar.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939949219,"gmtCreate":1662045982633,"gmtModify":1676536779211,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939949219","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939949103,"gmtCreate":1662045966903,"gmtModify":1676536778920,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939949103","repostId":"1117024163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117024163","pubTimestamp":1662045560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117024163?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Jobs Data Have Potential to Push Fed Toward Third Jumbo Hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117024163","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Payrolls seen climbing 298,000; hourly wages forecast up 5.3%Data follow mostly firmer recent readin","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Payrolls seen climbing 298,000; hourly wages forecast up 5.3%</li><li>Data follow mostly firmer recent readings on labor market</li></ul><p>The hotly anticipated US jobs report has the potential to tip the scales toward a third jumbo-sized hike in interest rates later this month after a wave of data that point to a resilient consumer and high labor demand.</p><p>Friday’s report is one of the last marquee releases Fed officials will have in hand before the mid-September policy meeting to help them decipher a complex economic and inflationary puzzle.</p><p>Forecasts call for a healthy, yet more moderate 298,000 gain in August payrolls and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.5%, matching the lowest in five decades. Solid wage growth is also expected amid a persistent mismatch between labor demand and supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a5bf5d132b576d974952b7bae5f5b7\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Such figures, in conjunction with a blowout July employment print, improving consumer sentiment figures and a surprise pickup in job openings, could be enough to push the Fed to raise borrowing costs by 75 basis points, extending the steepest interest-rate hikes in a generation to curb an inflation surge.</p><p>“In the context of all those data, this report becomes very important,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. It could “put a stamp of confirmation” on the trend the other data have been showing -- that the economy is very resilient.</p><p>Fresh data out Thursday suggest demand for labor continues to be healthy. Initial applications for unemployment benefits dropped for a third week to a two-month low, according to Labor Department data.</p><p>However, any indication of much softer employment growth in Friday’s report, combined with a bigger slowdown in the Labor Department’s average hourly earnings figures, may help shift expectations toward a half-point rate hike. Still, Fed officials will need to see results of the consumer price index later this month to crystallize their views on the appropriate policy response.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the central bank’s decision later this month “will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook.”</p><p>One important component of the jobs report will be the pay metrics. Economists expect the report will show a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings from a month earlier and a 5.3% rise from August 2021. The annual increase would represent a slight acceleration from the previous two months.</p><p>A slowdown in wage growth could give Fed officials some comfort by suggesting a softening in inflationary pressures, though that is not always the case, said Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting and a former Fed economist.</p><p>“Everything should be viewed through the lens of ‘what could this mean for inflation?’” said Sahm.</p><p>Companies have been raising pay across industries and income brackets to attract and retain workers. That’s underpinning consumer spending as Americans weather rising prices for essentials like food and rents. It also makes the Fed’s challenge of slowing down the economy to stem price gains that much more difficult.</p><p>New data from ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed the median annual pay for those who stayed in their jobs rose 7.6% in August from a year earlier. Job switchers saw more than twice that.</p><p>Still, US companies increased headcount at a relatively sluggish pace in August with ADP reporting a 132,000 gain that was the smallest since the start of last year.</p><p>The employment report is where policy makers “probably place the highest signal value about where underlying momentum is,” said Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Corp.</p><p>And while Friday’s report could be instrumental in pushing policy makers toward another 75 basis point hike at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Sept. 21, there’s another big report on the horizon that the central bank will consider: the closely-watched CPI.</p><h3>Inflation Data</h3><p>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast that he will be watching the jobs report for signs of what is happening with wage growth but emphasized his focus on inflation data when thinking about the September rate move.</p><p>“Ultimately, I’m very focused more than anything on the inflation data and the inflation expectation data,” Kashkari said in a Monday interview that aired on Thursday. “For me individually, I don’t think the labor market itself is going to be determinative of 50 versus 75.”</p><p>That sentiment was echoed by Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic.</p><p>“Incoming data -- if they clearly show that inflation has begun slowing -- might give us reason to dial back from the hikes of 75 basis points,” Bostic said in an essay posted on his bank’s website Tuesday.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Jobs Data Have Potential to Push Fed Toward Third Jumbo Hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Jobs Data Have Potential to Push Fed Toward Third Jumbo Hike\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-01/us-jobs-data-have-potential-to-push-fed-toward-third-jumbo-hike><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Payrolls seen climbing 298,000; hourly wages forecast up 5.3%Data follow mostly firmer recent readings on labor marketThe hotly anticipated US jobs report has the potential to tip the scales toward a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-01/us-jobs-data-have-potential-to-push-fed-toward-third-jumbo-hike\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-01/us-jobs-data-have-potential-to-push-fed-toward-third-jumbo-hike","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117024163","content_text":"Payrolls seen climbing 298,000; hourly wages forecast up 5.3%Data follow mostly firmer recent readings on labor marketThe hotly anticipated US jobs report has the potential to tip the scales toward a third jumbo-sized hike in interest rates later this month after a wave of data that point to a resilient consumer and high labor demand.Friday’s report is one of the last marquee releases Fed officials will have in hand before the mid-September policy meeting to help them decipher a complex economic and inflationary puzzle.Forecasts call for a healthy, yet more moderate 298,000 gain in August payrolls and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.5%, matching the lowest in five decades. Solid wage growth is also expected amid a persistent mismatch between labor demand and supply.Such figures, in conjunction with a blowout July employment print, improving consumer sentiment figures and a surprise pickup in job openings, could be enough to push the Fed to raise borrowing costs by 75 basis points, extending the steepest interest-rate hikes in a generation to curb an inflation surge.“In the context of all those data, this report becomes very important,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. It could “put a stamp of confirmation” on the trend the other data have been showing -- that the economy is very resilient.Fresh data out Thursday suggest demand for labor continues to be healthy. Initial applications for unemployment benefits dropped for a third week to a two-month low, according to Labor Department data.However, any indication of much softer employment growth in Friday’s report, combined with a bigger slowdown in the Labor Department’s average hourly earnings figures, may help shift expectations toward a half-point rate hike. Still, Fed officials will need to see results of the consumer price index later this month to crystallize their views on the appropriate policy response.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the central bank’s decision later this month “will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook.”One important component of the jobs report will be the pay metrics. Economists expect the report will show a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings from a month earlier and a 5.3% rise from August 2021. The annual increase would represent a slight acceleration from the previous two months.A slowdown in wage growth could give Fed officials some comfort by suggesting a softening in inflationary pressures, though that is not always the case, said Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting and a former Fed economist.“Everything should be viewed through the lens of ‘what could this mean for inflation?’” said Sahm.Companies have been raising pay across industries and income brackets to attract and retain workers. That’s underpinning consumer spending as Americans weather rising prices for essentials like food and rents. It also makes the Fed’s challenge of slowing down the economy to stem price gains that much more difficult.New data from ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed the median annual pay for those who stayed in their jobs rose 7.6% in August from a year earlier. Job switchers saw more than twice that.Still, US companies increased headcount at a relatively sluggish pace in August with ADP reporting a 132,000 gain that was the smallest since the start of last year.The employment report is where policy makers “probably place the highest signal value about where underlying momentum is,” said Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Corp.And while Friday’s report could be instrumental in pushing policy makers toward another 75 basis point hike at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Sept. 21, there’s another big report on the horizon that the central bank will consider: the closely-watched CPI.Inflation DataMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast that he will be watching the jobs report for signs of what is happening with wage growth but emphasized his focus on inflation data when thinking about the September rate move.“Ultimately, I’m very focused more than anything on the inflation data and the inflation expectation data,” Kashkari said in a Monday interview that aired on Thursday. “For me individually, I don’t think the labor market itself is going to be determinative of 50 versus 75.”That sentiment was echoed by Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic.“Incoming data -- if they clearly show that inflation has begun slowing -- might give us reason to dial back from the hikes of 75 basis points,” Bostic said in an essay posted on his bank’s website Tuesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939949033,"gmtCreate":1662045958424,"gmtModify":1676536778796,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;H","listText":"&nbsp;H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939949033","repostId":"1117024163","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997848406,"gmtCreate":1661784939807,"gmtModify":1676536578287,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"X","listText":"X","text":"X","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997848406","repostId":"1167448448","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997841256,"gmtCreate":1661784758577,"gmtModify":1676536578256,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"V","listText":"V","text":"V","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997841256","repostId":"1167448448","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997841844,"gmtCreate":1661784744091,"gmtModify":1676536578249,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"V","listText":"V","text":"V","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997841844","repostId":"1167448448","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167448448","pubTimestamp":1661786204,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167448448?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-29 23:16","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167448448","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAmong the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Among the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities.</li><li>The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August.</li><li>Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall.</li></ul><p>Among the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities. It was hard to miss the big rise in commodity prices. The Brent oil price increased from a low $20 a barrel in April 2020, during the first Covid-19 wave, to a peak of $122, in March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. But it was not just oil. The price of copper doubled over this period. Wheat more than doubled. And so on. Global indices of commodity prices almost tripled from April 2020 to March 2022.</p><p>These figures are in dollars. Prices rose even more when viewed in terms of euros, yen, won, or other currencies.</p><p>Not quite as widely observed is that prices of many commodities fell somewhat over the summer. The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August. The overall CRB index has fallen 12 percent as of August 17.</p><p>Is this dip in commodity prices just temporary? Or is it a sign that they have peaked and can be expected to fall further in the future?</p><h3>1. Why are prices of different commodities so correlated?</h3><p>Mostly, the prices of different commodities are highly correlated. In many cases, this is due to direct microeconomic linkages. When the price of oil rises, the costs to wheat producers rise, because harvesting equipment runs on diesel while fertilizer is made from natural gas, which puts upward pressure on grain prices. But the correlation across widely disparate energy, mineral and agricultural commodities begs for a macroeconomic explanation.</p><p>There are two macroeconomic reasons to think that commodity prices in general will fall further. One of them is self-evident, the other less so.</p><p>Different stories apply to different commodities, of course, due to microeconomic particulars. The price of natural gas in Europe is bound to rise, as the continent learns to manage winter without Russian gas. But the story is likely to be different elsewhere.</p><h3>2. Global growth</h3><p>The most obvious macroeconomic factor is the overall level of economic activity. GDP is an important determinant of the demand for commodities and therefore their real price. Less obviously, the real interest rate is another determinant. As of now, the outlook for world growth (slowing) and the outlook for interest rates (upward) both suggest a downward path for commodity prices.</p><p>Strong global growth, especially in China, can explain the major upswings of commodity prices in 2004-07, 2010-11, and 2021. Conversely, abrupt recessions can explain the plunge in commodity prices from June 2008 to February 2009 (during the Great Recession), and again from January to April 2020 (in the pandemic recession). This leaves unexplained, for the moment, the spike in commodity prices in the first half of 2008 and the decline in 2014-15.</p><p>Global growth is currently slowing, for well-known reasons. China&#39;s growth rate has faltered dramatically (particularly in the commodity-intensive manufacturing sector). It actually turned negative in the second quarter, as Shanghai and some other cities endured shutdowns in support of a futile zero-Covid policy. Europe is hard-hit by the side effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even US growth is slower in 2022 than it was last year, with many proclaiming that a recession has begun. (Personally, however, I am still willing to bet that no US recession started in the first part of the year and that either first quarter or second quarter GDP will be revised upward by end-September.)</p><p>Overall, according to the IMF&#39;s most recent World Economic Outlook update, global growth is projected to slow substantially, from 6.1 % in 2021, to 3.2 % in 2022 and 2.9 % in 2023. Slowing growth means lower demand for commodities, and hence lower prices.</p><h3>3. Real interest rates</h3><p>In addition, as the Fed and other central banks tighten monetary policy, real interest rates are expected to rise. This is likely to lower commodity prices, and not just because high real interest rates make a recession more likely. Interest rates have an effect independently of GDP, both in theory and statistically.</p><p>The theory of the relationship between interest rates and commodity prices is long-established. I like the &#34;overshooting&#34; formulation of the theory. The simplest intuition behind the relationship is that the interest rate is a &#34;cost of carrying&#34; inventories. A rise in the interest rate reduces firms&#39; demand for holding inventories and therefore reduces the commodity price.</p><p>Three other mechanisms operate, in addition to inventories. First, for an exhaustible resource, an increase in the interest rate increases the incentive to extract today, rather than leaving deposits in the ground for tomorrow. Second, for commodities that have been &#34;financialized,&#34; an increase in the interest rate encourages institutional investors to shift out of the commodities asset class and into treasury bills. Third, for a commodity that is internationally traded, an increase in the domestic real interest rate may cause a real appreciation of the domestic currency, which works to lower the domestic-currency price of the commodity.</p><p>The relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices is also established statistically, by econometric analyses that range from:</p><p>i) simple correlations; to</p><p>ii) regressions that control for other important determinants, such as GDP and inventories in a &#34;carry trade&#34; model; to</p><p>iii) high-frequency event studies, which are much less sensitive to the econometric problems of the regressions, namely issues of causality and time series properties.</p><p>Two episodes illustrate the claim that the effect of monetary policy operates independently of the effect of GDP. Neither the spike in dollar commodity prices in the first half of 2008 nor the decline in 2014-15 can be explained by fluctuations in economic activity; but they can be interpreted as the result of easy US monetary policy (QE) and tightening US monetary policy (the end of QE), respectively.</p><p>Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall. That could mean that real prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural products are on their way down.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Commodity Prices May Have Peaked\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-29 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537465-why-commodity-prices-may-peaked><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmong the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities.The price of oil decreased by about 30...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537465-why-commodity-prices-may-peaked\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537465-why-commodity-prices-may-peaked","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167448448","content_text":"SummaryAmong the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities.The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August.Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall.Among the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities. It was hard to miss the big rise in commodity prices. The Brent oil price increased from a low $20 a barrel in April 2020, during the first Covid-19 wave, to a peak of $122, in March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. But it was not just oil. The price of copper doubled over this period. Wheat more than doubled. And so on. Global indices of commodity prices almost tripled from April 2020 to March 2022.These figures are in dollars. Prices rose even more when viewed in terms of euros, yen, won, or other currencies.Not quite as widely observed is that prices of many commodities fell somewhat over the summer. The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August. The overall CRB index has fallen 12 percent as of August 17.Is this dip in commodity prices just temporary? Or is it a sign that they have peaked and can be expected to fall further in the future?1. Why are prices of different commodities so correlated?Mostly, the prices of different commodities are highly correlated. In many cases, this is due to direct microeconomic linkages. When the price of oil rises, the costs to wheat producers rise, because harvesting equipment runs on diesel while fertilizer is made from natural gas, which puts upward pressure on grain prices. But the correlation across widely disparate energy, mineral and agricultural commodities begs for a macroeconomic explanation.There are two macroeconomic reasons to think that commodity prices in general will fall further. One of them is self-evident, the other less so.Different stories apply to different commodities, of course, due to microeconomic particulars. The price of natural gas in Europe is bound to rise, as the continent learns to manage winter without Russian gas. But the story is likely to be different elsewhere.2. Global growthThe most obvious macroeconomic factor is the overall level of economic activity. GDP is an important determinant of the demand for commodities and therefore their real price. Less obviously, the real interest rate is another determinant. As of now, the outlook for world growth (slowing) and the outlook for interest rates (upward) both suggest a downward path for commodity prices.Strong global growth, especially in China, can explain the major upswings of commodity prices in 2004-07, 2010-11, and 2021. Conversely, abrupt recessions can explain the plunge in commodity prices from June 2008 to February 2009 (during the Great Recession), and again from January to April 2020 (in the pandemic recession). This leaves unexplained, for the moment, the spike in commodity prices in the first half of 2008 and the decline in 2014-15.Global growth is currently slowing, for well-known reasons. China's growth rate has faltered dramatically (particularly in the commodity-intensive manufacturing sector). It actually turned negative in the second quarter, as Shanghai and some other cities endured shutdowns in support of a futile zero-Covid policy. Europe is hard-hit by the side effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even US growth is slower in 2022 than it was last year, with many proclaiming that a recession has begun. (Personally, however, I am still willing to bet that no US recession started in the first part of the year and that either first quarter or second quarter GDP will be revised upward by end-September.)Overall, according to the IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook update, global growth is projected to slow substantially, from 6.1 % in 2021, to 3.2 % in 2022 and 2.9 % in 2023. Slowing growth means lower demand for commodities, and hence lower prices.3. Real interest ratesIn addition, as the Fed and other central banks tighten monetary policy, real interest rates are expected to rise. This is likely to lower commodity prices, and not just because high real interest rates make a recession more likely. Interest rates have an effect independently of GDP, both in theory and statistically.The theory of the relationship between interest rates and commodity prices is long-established. I like the \"overshooting\" formulation of the theory. The simplest intuition behind the relationship is that the interest rate is a \"cost of carrying\" inventories. A rise in the interest rate reduces firms' demand for holding inventories and therefore reduces the commodity price.Three other mechanisms operate, in addition to inventories. First, for an exhaustible resource, an increase in the interest rate increases the incentive to extract today, rather than leaving deposits in the ground for tomorrow. Second, for commodities that have been \"financialized,\" an increase in the interest rate encourages institutional investors to shift out of the commodities asset class and into treasury bills. Third, for a commodity that is internationally traded, an increase in the domestic real interest rate may cause a real appreciation of the domestic currency, which works to lower the domestic-currency price of the commodity.The relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices is also established statistically, by econometric analyses that range from:i) simple correlations; toii) regressions that control for other important determinants, such as GDP and inventories in a \"carry trade\" model; toiii) high-frequency event studies, which are much less sensitive to the econometric problems of the regressions, namely issues of causality and time series properties.Two episodes illustrate the claim that the effect of monetary policy operates independently of the effect of GDP. Neither the spike in dollar commodity prices in the first half of 2008 nor the decline in 2014-15 can be explained by fluctuations in economic activity; but they can be interpreted as the result of easy US monetary policy (QE) and tightening US monetary policy (the end of QE), respectively.Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall. That could mean that real prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural products are on their way down.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996678871,"gmtCreate":1661170517196,"gmtModify":1676536465866,"author":{"id":"3582026975439494","authorId":"3582026975439494","name":"Cchan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cg","listText":"Cg","text":"Cg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996678871","repostId":"2261510978","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261510978","pubTimestamp":1661168015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2261510978?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-22 19:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment Stock Plummets on Cineworld Bankruptcy Option, \"APE\" Dividend Dilution","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261510978","media":"TheStreet","summary":"AMC shareholders will begin trading their APE preferred dividends Monday amid the ongoing slump in meme-stock valuations.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>AMC Entertainment  (<b>AMC</b>)  shares plunged lower Monday after the movie theatre chain&#39;s largest rival, Cineworld, confirmed it&#39;s considering a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in the United States.</p><p>U.K.-based Cineworld, which owns Regal cinemas in the U.S., hit a record low on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported the Chapter 11 option, which the group said Monday is one of its options as it looks to reduce debts accumulated during the pandemic and its failed takeover of Canada-based Cineplex.</p><p>&#34;Cineworld and Regal theaters globally are open for business as usual and continue to welcome guests and members,&#34; the company said in a statement to the London Stock Exchange Monday. &#34;The strategic options through which Cineworld may achieve its restructuring objectives include a possible voluntary Chapter 11 filing in the United States and associated ancillary proceedings in other jurisdictions as part of an orderly implementation process.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Cineworld is in discussions with many of its major stakeholders including its secured lenders and their legal and financial advisers,&#34; the statement added. &#34;Cineworld would expect to maintain its operations in the ordinary course until and following any filing and ultimately to continue its business over the longer term with no significant impact upon its employees.&#34;</p><p>AMC shares were marked 35.35% lower in pre-market trading to indicate an opening bell price of $11.65 each.</p><p>Earlier this month, AMC posted a bigger-than-expected second quarter loss of 24 cents per share, on revenues of just over $1.1 billion, and planned to issue a special preferred share dividend that would carry the ticker symbol &#39;APE&#39;, a reference to retail stock traders that share information on the Reddit messaging board.</p><p>Each AMC shareholder will receive one APE preferred share, valued at 1/20th of the AMC share price at the close of trading Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d88814c6f641e41662392a4960b383f\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Those so-called APE shares -- which will eventually convert into AMC common stock -- will be distributed Monday and trade independently. However, their conversion potential, which is subject to vote by APE shareholders, will dilute the outstanding value of AMC shares, adding to the downward pressure in early Monday trading.</p></body></html>","source":"thestreet_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment Stock Plummets on Cineworld Bankruptcy Option, \"APE\" Dividend Dilution</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment Stock Plummets on Cineworld Bankruptcy Option, \"APE\" Dividend Dilution\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-22 19:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/markets/amc-stock-plummets-on-cineworld-bankruptcy-option-ape-dilution><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment  (AMC)  shares plunged lower Monday after the movie theatre chain's largest rival, Cineworld, confirmed it's considering a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in the United States.U.K.-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/amc-stock-plummets-on-cineworld-bankruptcy-option-ape-dilution\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/amc-stock-plummets-on-cineworld-bankruptcy-option-ape-dilution","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261510978","content_text":"AMC Entertainment  (AMC)  shares plunged lower Monday after the movie theatre chain's largest rival, Cineworld, confirmed it's considering a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in the United States.U.K.-based Cineworld, which owns Regal cinemas in the U.S., hit a record low on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported the Chapter 11 option, which the group said Monday is one of its options as it looks to reduce debts accumulated during the pandemic and its failed takeover of Canada-based Cineplex.\"Cineworld and Regal theaters globally are open for business as usual and continue to welcome guests and members,\" the company said in a statement to the London Stock Exchange Monday. \"The strategic options through which Cineworld may achieve its restructuring objectives include a possible voluntary Chapter 11 filing in the United States and associated ancillary proceedings in other jurisdictions as part of an orderly implementation process.\"\"Cineworld is in discussions with many of its major stakeholders including its secured lenders and their legal and financial advisers,\" the statement added. \"Cineworld would expect to maintain its operations in the ordinary course until and following any filing and ultimately to continue its business over the longer term with no significant impact upon its employees.\"AMC shares were marked 35.35% lower in pre-market trading to indicate an opening bell price of $11.65 each.Earlier this month, AMC posted a bigger-than-expected second quarter loss of 24 cents per share, on revenues of just over $1.1 billion, and planned to issue a special preferred share dividend that would carry the ticker symbol 'APE', a reference to retail stock traders that share information on the Reddit messaging board.Each AMC shareholder will receive one APE preferred share, valued at 1/20th of the AMC share price at the close of trading Friday.Those so-called APE shares -- which will eventually convert into AMC common stock -- will be distributed Monday and trade independently. However, their conversion potential, which is subject to vote by APE shareholders, will dilute the outstanding value of AMC shares, adding to the downward pressure in early Monday trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}