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5 Of 6 First Fed Hikes Left Stocks Lower 3 Months On. September Was One.

Mathematical Money | November 13, 2026 The Fed raised rates on 16 Sep. It was the first hike since July 2023. It held on 28 Oct, and after the hot inflation number on 10 Nov the market is reported to be pricing another hike on 9 Dec as close to certain. So the feed is full of "hikes are bad for stocks". I went and counted. The Fed's own table lists 52 hikes since 1990, and 51 of them are more than a year old. The S&P 500 was higher a year later after 44 of the 51. That is 86%. That sounds bullish. It isn't. Pick any trading day since 1994 and the S&P was higher a year later 79% of the time. Stocks go up in most years, hike or no hike. So a Fed hike on its own tells you almost nothing. But one kind of hike does look different from a normal day. September was that kind. Sort the hike
5 Of 6 First Fed Hikes Left Stocks Lower 3 Months On. September Was One.

Nvidia Opened Down 13% When Huang Quit And Closed Down 4%. In 8 Older Cases The Open Was The Price

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$   Mathematical Money | November 13, 2026 Jensen Huang resigned on 12 Nov. $NVDA$ opened at $151.00. The close the day before was $173.73. That's 13.1% gone at the bell. One minute later it hit $148.80. That was the low of the day. It closed at $166.19. Down 4.3%. So anyone who sold at the open gave up about $15 a share by the close. I wanted to know if that is normal. I checked eight older cases. It is not normal. What was announced From Nvidia's own release, filed with the SEC. Huang resigned as President, CEO and board member, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO and keeps the CFO job. Harvey Jones is the first Chair of the Board. The board will look at internal and external candidates. The release giv
Nvidia Opened Down 13% When Huang Quit And Closed Down 4%. In 8 Older Cases The Open Was The Price

Anthropic Is Expected To List On 19 November. 11% Of Zoom's Market Value Is Already Anthropic Stock.

Mathematical Money | November 12, 2026 Anthropic's amended prospectus, filed on 10 November, offers 825 million shares at $70 to $78. The company's own investor material says the price is expected to be set on 18 November, with trading on Nasdaq expected the next day under the ticker ANT. None of that is final. The filing itself says it "is not complete and may be changed". Here is the part that caught me. $ZM$, the video-call company, carries an Anthropic stake at $3.13 billion in its last quarterly filing. Zoom's whole market value at the 11 November close was $28.6 billion. So if you own Zoom, about 11% of what you paid for is Anthropic. I hold no Anthropic exposure worth the name, and this post is not a view on whether to buy the listing. It is a check you can run on any hot IPO, becau
Anthropic Is Expected To List On 19 November. 11% Of Zoom's Market Value Is Already Anthropic Stock.
$MARA 20261204 9.5 CALL$ Usual covered call
$NVDA 20261113 165.0 CALL$ Covered call for nvda. Lets see if it recovers from the news shock

The Market Has Put About $900 Billion On Jensen Huang's Job. It Takes Six Votes To End It.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$   Mathematical Money | November 12, 2026 In the three sessions to 11 November, $AMD$ rose 23.1% and $AVGO$ rose 17.5%. $NVDA$ fell 6.9%, to $173.73. Same customers, same chips, same week. The difference is one man. On Sunday 8 November Nvidia's board said it was opening an independent investigation, and that it "has confidence in Jensen". By Wednesday evening the Wall Street Journal was reporting that the same board was preparing to remove him. That is a report, the allegations behind it are unproven, and the decision was still pending when I wrote this. I have no position in Nvidia. What I have is a five-minute check that puts a number on a question like this, and four older cases to run it on. Nothing below depends on wh
The Market Has Put About $900 Billion On Jensen Huang's Job. It Takes Six Votes To End It.

Inflation expectations fell to 2.20% on CPI day, even as the 10-year yield rose

Bond yields jumped on CPI day, yet inflation expectations slipped to 2.20%. That's the lowest since 28 July. Here's what caught my eye. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.10 percentage points to 4.98% on 10 Nov. Split it in two. The real yield, the part left after inflation, rose 0.12 to 2.78%. Breakeven inflation, the gap between the two, dipped 0.02. So the whole move was real yield. The market didn't price more inflation after the print. It priced money staying expensive for longer. To me that reads as higher-for-longer, not an inflation scare. My view, not a forecast. The real yield hasn't been this high since 19 October. Breakeven inflation peaked at 2.50% on 4 May and is down 0.30 since. The catch: cheaper oil can drag inflation expectations down on its own. So a falling breakeven
Inflation expectations fell to 2.20% on CPI day, even as the 10-year yield rose
$MARA 20261204 10.5 CALL$ Covered call as usual. Nothing fancy
$SPCX 20261204 130.0 PUT$ Ccovered put position
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Bullish on spcx. But would rather hold echo since it is quite undervalued compared to spcx.  Buying echo 2 vs shorting 1 spcx. Betting NAV to close in the next one year.  Sometimes it never closes sometimes it does. But still position still slightly skewed towards bullish. In the event it drops together, will also not be devastating 
$BMNR 20261204 17.0 PUT$ Cash secured put 
$KKR DIAGONAL 261218/261120 CALL 105.0/CALL 100.0$ Rolling up and out at almost break even price. Hoping to catch more of the upside than the theta decay 

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