lckleong personal page - To The Moon

lckleong

lckleong

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09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs warns for the first time in history: Fed super tightening could trigger a hard landing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210536528","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛的首席经济学家发表的一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，在薪资-通胀螺旋上升通道中，只有美联储大幅紧缩才能破局，然而如果美联储无法实现经济“软着陆”——在不影响经济前景的情况下抑制通胀，将会引发远超当前预测的经济放缓。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Although since July last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The U.S. economic growth forecast has been lowered six times. At present, the average GDP forecast of the United States in 2022 has been lowered by 0.2 percentage points to +3.2%. However, since the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn to curb inflation, Goldman Sachs warned for the first time that the Fed's tightening policy may trigger further expansion of wages and inflation, thus slowing down growth.</p><p>In other words,<b>If the Fed's tightening policy causes a \"hard landing\" for the economy, the United States may face an economic recession</b>。</p><p>On Tuesday, Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, issued a note entitled \"The Slowdown We Need\", suggesting that compared with the unexpected increase of 467,000 non-farm payrolls in the United States in January mentioned in an earlier article on Wall Street, the average hourly wage increased by 0.7% month-on-month is the key to the problem.</p><p>In the last 2-3 quarters, the annualized rate of wages has accelerated to 6%; While in the last 3, 6 and 12 months, core PCE inflation has been around 5%. This raises the question of whether we are already in the middle of a wage-inflation spiral that needs to be broken through aggressive Fed rate hike and substantial tightening.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37f48eca5f2ddd54d1b28ae39bd6d50\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The answer is undoubtedly obvious, although Goldman Sachs has once again \"slapped the face\" of what it said in last month's note that \"there is little sign of a wage-inflation spiral\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d91c3a804e2e59a2b3a901ebbf065f1\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The latest poll shows that 55% of respondents are trying to demand a raise from their existing employer with the threat of job-hopping, with high inflation being one of the most \"justified\" reasons. The market believes that once the wage-inflation spiral is formed, the possibility of the Fed choosing a one-time sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in March cannot be ruled out.</p><p>Just as Goldman Sachs shifted after seeing inflation as \"temporary\" month after month in 2021, Goldman Sachs, after acknowledging that the wage-inflation spiral is in an upward channel, said:</p><p>Even if wage growth drops from 6% to 5% as we expect, that would mean unit labor cost inflation of at least 3%, assuming productivity growth of no more than 2%. If it continues at this rate, it will be too high to meet the Fed's 2% PCE inflation target. This raises the risk that Fed officials would like to see an even greater slowdown in economic output and job growth than currently forecast, at a pace no faster than the long-term trend. In other words, to explain what the chief economist of Goldman Sachs said that \"wage and inflationary pressures in advanced economies will expand, which means that growth needs to slow down and monetary policy needs to be tightened in the early stage of recovery\", it is actually that the super-tightening policy of the Federal Reserve may trigger an economic recession.</p><p>Hatzius explains its core market perspective, which is:</p><p>The increase in risk-free yields, the widening of investment grade IG and high yield HY credit spreads, superimposed on the post-pandemic recovery so far, will see lower expected returns and larger potential shrinkage in the market. However, the above results are based on the premise that the Fed will somehow achieve a soft landing. The problem is that the Fed has never been able to achieve a soft landing, and every tightening cycle is followed by a crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b638c0cc75bbe030f31ed76f96e82eb1\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>And to make the problem worse, this time the Fed not only hopes to lift the short end of the curve through rate hike, but also hopes to force the yield curve to steep by aggressively shrinking the balance sheet, so that the number of long-end selling exceeds the short-end. Or the inversion of the yield curve that will appear will signal the beginning of a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ad7e31276ea37fe42c0993ef9cf45\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Goldman Sachs economists did not say directly that the U.S. economy was facing collapse, the subtext seemed to have given some hints.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs warns for the first time in history: Fed super tightening could trigger a hard landing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs warns for the first time in history: Fed super tightening could trigger a hard landing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-09 09:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Although since July last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The U.S. economic growth forecast has been lowered six times. At present, the average GDP forecast of the United States in 2022 has been lowered by 0.2 percentage points to +3.2%. However, since the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn to curb inflation, Goldman Sachs warned for the first time that the Fed's tightening policy may trigger further expansion of wages and inflation, thus slowing down growth.</p><p>In other words,<b>If the Fed's tightening policy causes a \"hard landing\" for the economy, the United States may face an economic recession</b>。</p><p>On Tuesday, Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, issued a note entitled \"The Slowdown We Need\", suggesting that compared with the unexpected increase of 467,000 non-farm payrolls in the United States in January mentioned in an earlier article on Wall Street, the average hourly wage increased by 0.7% month-on-month is the key to the problem.</p><p>In the last 2-3 quarters, the annualized rate of wages has accelerated to 6%; While in the last 3, 6 and 12 months, core PCE inflation has been around 5%. This raises the question of whether we are already in the middle of a wage-inflation spiral that needs to be broken through aggressive Fed rate hike and substantial tightening.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37f48eca5f2ddd54d1b28ae39bd6d50\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The answer is undoubtedly obvious, although Goldman Sachs has once again \"slapped the face\" of what it said in last month's note that \"there is little sign of a wage-inflation spiral\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d91c3a804e2e59a2b3a901ebbf065f1\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The latest poll shows that 55% of respondents are trying to demand a raise from their existing employer with the threat of job-hopping, with high inflation being one of the most \"justified\" reasons. The market believes that once the wage-inflation spiral is formed, the possibility of the Fed choosing a one-time sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in March cannot be ruled out.</p><p>Just as Goldman Sachs shifted after seeing inflation as \"temporary\" month after month in 2021, Goldman Sachs, after acknowledging that the wage-inflation spiral is in an upward channel, said:</p><p>Even if wage growth drops from 6% to 5% as we expect, that would mean unit labor cost inflation of at least 3%, assuming productivity growth of no more than 2%. If it continues at this rate, it will be too high to meet the Fed's 2% PCE inflation target. This raises the risk that Fed officials would like to see an even greater slowdown in economic output and job growth than currently forecast, at a pace no faster than the long-term trend. In other words, to explain what the chief economist of Goldman Sachs said that \"wage and inflationary pressures in advanced economies will expand, which means that growth needs to slow down and monetary policy needs to be tightened in the early stage of recovery\", it is actually that the super-tightening policy of the Federal Reserve may trigger an economic recession.</p><p>Hatzius explains its core market perspective, which is:</p><p>The increase in risk-free yields, the widening of investment grade IG and high yield HY credit spreads, superimposed on the post-pandemic recovery so far, will see lower expected returns and larger potential shrinkage in the market. However, the above results are based on the premise that the Fed will somehow achieve a soft landing. The problem is that the Fed has never been able to achieve a soft landing, and every tightening cycle is followed by a crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b638c0cc75bbe030f31ed76f96e82eb1\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>And to make the problem worse, this time the Fed not only hopes to lift the short end of the curve through rate hike, but also hopes to force the yield curve to steep by aggressively shrinking the balance sheet, so that the number of long-end selling exceeds the short-end. Or the inversion of the yield curve that will appear will signal the beginning of a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ad7e31276ea37fe42c0993ef9cf45\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Goldman Sachs economists did not say directly that the U.S. economy was facing collapse, the subtext seemed to have given some hints.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","GS":"高盛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210536528","content_text":"虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"GS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":459088937042368,"gmtCreate":1753100890607,"gmtModify":1753100893486,"author":{"id":"3583119300391698","authorId":"3583119300391698","name":"lckleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b42a26511a92853d19ef03f25b3530","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583119300391698","authorIdStr":"3583119300391698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/8AZ.SI\">$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/8AZ.SI\">$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d35fde6cc048453b8325d3c9f0376aac","width":"1062","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/459088937042368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}