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lckleong
07-21
$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$
lckleong
07-20
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
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lckleong
06-22
[开心]
lckleong
03-12
[开心]
lckleong
2024-03-24
$迪士尼(DIS)$
lckleong
2024-01-11
[开心] [开心]
lckleong
2023-11-14
$星巴克(SBUX)$
lckleong
2023-11-14
$星巴克(SBUX)$
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lckleong
2023-11-14
[开心] [开心]
lckleong
2022-11-29
$星巴克(SBUX)$
lckleong
2022-06-03
$新电信(Z74.SI)$
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lckleong
2022-05-17
$标普500指数ETF(IVV)$
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lckleong
2022-05-17
$可口可乐(KO)$
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lckleong
2022-05-13
$可口可乐(KO)$
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lckleong
2022-05-04
$苹果(AAPL)$
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2022-05-03
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lckleong
2022-04-29
$可口可乐(KO)$
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lckleong
2022-04-28
$昇菘(OV8.SI)$
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lckleong
2022-04-05
$可口可乐(KO)$
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2022-04-03
$可口可乐(KO)$
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19:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"疫情+缺芯，苹果如何成为“全球最赚钱公司”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177484074","media":"智东西","summary":"苹果公司正成为一家具有抗脆弱（Antifragile）能力的公司。","content":"<p>文/徐珊</p>\n<p>据外媒TidBITS报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司正在通过较为强大的供应链保障和多元化的产品服务成为一家具有抗脆弱（Antifragile）能力的公司。但报道也表示苹果还面临着政府监管、公司管理层交替以及芯片产能不稳定的风险。</p>\n<p>苹果通过获得优先供应权、自主研发芯片、以及打造多元化产品组合等方式，提高了苹果自身的抗脆弱能力，抵御外部风险冲击。</p>\n<p>抗脆弱性是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nicholas Nassim Taleb）率先在其作品《抗脆弱》中提出的概念。他认为，抗脆弱性是指一些企业具有在混乱的市场情况中获益，并且还能推动自身发展的能力。TidBITS报道认为，苹果在疫情这场“黑天鹅”事件中收获颇丰，这代表着苹果具有一定的抗脆弱性，也就是抗风险能力。</p>\n<p>面对2020年“疫情+缺芯”这样的双重大考，苹果在哪些方面占据了优势？苹果通过哪些方式提高自身的抗风险能力？它还面临着哪些挑战？我们尝试从这篇报道中找到问题的答案。</p>\n<p><b>苹果拥有优先供应权、自研芯片和市场竞争力三大优势</b></p>\n<p>此前，苹果曾花费了数十亿美元来确保供应链的零部件安全，所以苹果并不会因为芯片短缺导致产品出货量大幅下降，甚至停产。</p>\n<p>苹果公司报告称，它将在2021年第三季度的制造企业采购环节上投入380亿美元，比上一季度增长26%。市场研究公司Creative Strategies的分析师Ben Bajarin表示，这是因为苹果“锁定”了自己的芯片供应商，并希望通过建立长期合作赢得供应商们的优先供应权。也因此，在其他制造商已经陷入了芯片短缺的困境时，苹果保障了自身的供应链稳定。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31747aa683a66b6b9d6927f3a0613d0b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"89\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲分析师Ben Bajarin认为，苹果用长期订单赢得供应商的优先权</p>\n<p>苹果选择自主研发芯片也在这场双重大考中赢得了一定优势。2020年11月，苹果在秋季新品发布会上正式推出自主研发的M1芯片，替代Mac电脑中的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>处理器。这意味着苹果不需要与其他厂商争取英特尔CPU订单，可以直接将芯片设计交给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>等代工厂生产制造，并由此获得芯片代工厂的优先权。此外，M1芯片在性能和能耗方面优于英特尔处理器，这同样推动了Mac电脑的市场销量增长，在2021年第二季度创造下最高销量纪录——8010万台。</p>\n<p>同时，TidBITS报道认为，苹果所具有的全球影响力是大多数竞争对手难以达到的，尤其在中国市场。因此，当中国成为疫情冲击下全球恢复最快的市场时，从一定程度减少了苹果所受疫情冲击的影响。而当苹果在中国市场的销售额下降时（如2018年第四季度），苹果在全球其他市场的强势增长将会缓解中国市场带来的负面影响。</p>\n<p><b>多元“产品+服务” 苹果提前备好Plan B</b></p>\n<p>TidBITS认为，在苹果第三季度的电话会议上，当分析师问及疫情对苹果的影响时，苹果首席财务官Luca Maestri的回应正说明了苹果的抗风险能力较强。</p>\n<p>苹果首席财务官Luca Maestri表示，疫情影响，苹果不得不关闭几百家零售店，用户也难以获得线下的维修服务，iPhone和Apple Watch的销售也因此受到了一定影响。但同样也是因为疫情防控，人们需要在家办公以及学习，对电子设备的需求旺盛，iPad和Mac电脑的销售呈现了迅猛增长。</p>\n<p>在产品服务方面，线下商场的关闭也对苹果的Apple Care产品业务造成了影响，广告和广告业务增长速度逐渐放缓。但由于疫情管控期间，一些娱乐场所关闭，Apple Music、Apple TV+等娱乐业务同样得到了大量用户们的喜爱。</p>\n<p>此外，Apple不仅拥有多样化的产品组合，而且拥有由实体商店和在线商店两种购物方式。由于拥有在线商店的销售渠道，苹果对线下商场的关闭造成的影响较其他厂商较小。</p>\n<p>不仅如此，报道认为，iPhone系列产品的销售下降并不会破坏苹果整个供应链的增长趋势。正如2020年第二季度所示，当iPhone系列产品的营收额下降时，服务和可穿戴设备业务的营收额呈现了增长。并且，苹果还可以通过服务和配件将iPhone货币化，从而通过Mac电脑和iPad等其他产品来增加收入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61db48372b3f1e21a450b5219dbd8013\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲苹果2018-2021年第二季度各产品的营收情况</p>\n<p><b>政府监管力度加大 苹果发展面临三大挑战</b></p>\n<p>TidBITS报道认为，苹果近期在一些业务的某些方面与政府监管机构发生冲突，尤其是App Store，但苹果自身多元化的产品与服务或许能降低由政府监管所带来的负面影响。</p>\n<p>TidBITS报道还提到，由于年龄原因，60岁的库克可能会在未来5到10年内辞职，苹果下一届CEO也会对苹果的发展造成一定影响。</p>\n<p>在产品制造方面，由于世界上许多芯片代工厂都在中国台湾，包括苹果合作伙伴台积电，台积电的产能不稳定可能会减少苹果的订单量，从而影响到苹果的出货量。</p>\n<p><b>结语：多重措施提高抗风险能力，苹果成为最赚钱的公司</b></p>\n<p>TidBITS的报道认为，苹果通过加大对供应链体系的投入、自主研发芯片、以及打造多元产品以及产品服务等方法，逐渐提高了自身的抗风险能力。</p>\n<p>据今日发布的《福布斯》报告显示，苹果以574亿美元的高利润位居全球公司榜首，成为最赚钱的公司。同时，在营收方面，苹果公司在去年的总营收达到了2.7亿元，位于全球第六。</p>\n<p>此次全球疫情爆发这样的“黑天鹅”事件也为全球企业的发展敲响警钟，企业在快速发展自身业务时，要做好抵抗风险的能力，以免在市场冲击下，造成重大损失。</p>","source":"zhidxcom","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>疫情+缺芯，苹果如何成为“全球最赚钱公司”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n疫情+缺芯，苹果如何成为“全球最赚钱公司”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:41 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-08-02/doc-ikqcfncc0514764.shtml><strong>智东西</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文/徐珊\n据外媒TidBITS报道，苹果公司正在通过较为强大的供应链保障和多元化的产品服务成为一家具有抗脆弱（Antifragile）能力的公司。但报道也表示苹果还面临着政府监管、公司管理层交替以及芯片产能不稳定的风险。\n苹果通过获得优先供应权、自主研发芯片、以及打造多元化产品组合等方式，提高了苹果自身的抗脆弱能力，抵御外部风险冲击。\n抗脆弱性是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nicholas ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-08-02/doc-ikqcfncc0514764.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1261046fdf2e9dca6385e928ebb0bc","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-08-02/doc-ikqcfncc0514764.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177484074","content_text":"文/徐珊\n据外媒TidBITS报道，苹果公司正在通过较为强大的供应链保障和多元化的产品服务成为一家具有抗脆弱（Antifragile）能力的公司。但报道也表示苹果还面临着政府监管、公司管理层交替以及芯片产能不稳定的风险。\n苹果通过获得优先供应权、自主研发芯片、以及打造多元化产品组合等方式，提高了苹果自身的抗脆弱能力，抵御外部风险冲击。\n抗脆弱性是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nicholas Nassim Taleb）率先在其作品《抗脆弱》中提出的概念。他认为，抗脆弱性是指一些企业具有在混乱的市场情况中获益，并且还能推动自身发展的能力。TidBITS报道认为，苹果在疫情这场“黑天鹅”事件中收获颇丰，这代表着苹果具有一定的抗脆弱性，也就是抗风险能力。\n面对2020年“疫情+缺芯”这样的双重大考，苹果在哪些方面占据了优势？苹果通过哪些方式提高自身的抗风险能力？它还面临着哪些挑战？我们尝试从这篇报道中找到问题的答案。\n苹果拥有优先供应权、自研芯片和市场竞争力三大优势\n此前，苹果曾花费了数十亿美元来确保供应链的零部件安全，所以苹果并不会因为芯片短缺导致产品出货量大幅下降，甚至停产。\n苹果公司报告称，它将在2021年第三季度的制造企业采购环节上投入380亿美元，比上一季度增长26%。市场研究公司Creative Strategies的分析师Ben Bajarin表示，这是因为苹果“锁定”了自己的芯片供应商，并希望通过建立长期合作赢得供应商们的优先供应权。也因此，在其他制造商已经陷入了芯片短缺的困境时，苹果保障了自身的供应链稳定。\n▲分析师Ben Bajarin认为，苹果用长期订单赢得供应商的优先权\n苹果选择自主研发芯片也在这场双重大考中赢得了一定优势。2020年11月，苹果在秋季新品发布会上正式推出自主研发的M1芯片，替代Mac电脑中的英特尔处理器。这意味着苹果不需要与其他厂商争取英特尔CPU订单，可以直接将芯片设计交给台积电等代工厂生产制造，并由此获得芯片代工厂的优先权。此外，M1芯片在性能和能耗方面优于英特尔处理器，这同样推动了Mac电脑的市场销量增长，在2021年第二季度创造下最高销量纪录——8010万台。\n同时，TidBITS报道认为，苹果所具有的全球影响力是大多数竞争对手难以达到的，尤其在中国市场。因此，当中国成为疫情冲击下全球恢复最快的市场时，从一定程度减少了苹果所受疫情冲击的影响。而当苹果在中国市场的销售额下降时（如2018年第四季度），苹果在全球其他市场的强势增长将会缓解中国市场带来的负面影响。\n多元“产品+服务” 苹果提前备好Plan B\nTidBITS认为，在苹果第三季度的电话会议上，当分析师问及疫情对苹果的影响时，苹果首席财务官Luca Maestri的回应正说明了苹果的抗风险能力较强。\n苹果首席财务官Luca Maestri表示，疫情影响，苹果不得不关闭几百家零售店，用户也难以获得线下的维修服务，iPhone和Apple Watch的销售也因此受到了一定影响。但同样也是因为疫情防控，人们需要在家办公以及学习，对电子设备的需求旺盛，iPad和Mac电脑的销售呈现了迅猛增长。\n在产品服务方面，线下商场的关闭也对苹果的Apple Care产品业务造成了影响，广告和广告业务增长速度逐渐放缓。但由于疫情管控期间，一些娱乐场所关闭，Apple Music、Apple TV+等娱乐业务同样得到了大量用户们的喜爱。\n此外，Apple不仅拥有多样化的产品组合，而且拥有由实体商店和在线商店两种购物方式。由于拥有在线商店的销售渠道，苹果对线下商场的关闭造成的影响较其他厂商较小。\n不仅如此，报道认为，iPhone系列产品的销售下降并不会破坏苹果整个供应链的增长趋势。正如2020年第二季度所示，当iPhone系列产品的营收额下降时，服务和可穿戴设备业务的营收额呈现了增长。并且，苹果还可以通过服务和配件将iPhone货币化，从而通过Mac电脑和iPad等其他产品来增加收入。\n▲苹果2018-2021年第二季度各产品的营收情况\n政府监管力度加大 苹果发展面临三大挑战\nTidBITS报道认为，苹果近期在一些业务的某些方面与政府监管机构发生冲突，尤其是App Store，但苹果自身多元化的产品与服务或许能降低由政府监管所带来的负面影响。\nTidBITS报道还提到，由于年龄原因，60岁的库克可能会在未来5到10年内辞职，苹果下一届CEO也会对苹果的发展造成一定影响。\n在产品制造方面，由于世界上许多芯片代工厂都在中国台湾，包括苹果合作伙伴台积电，台积电的产能不稳定可能会减少苹果的订单量，从而影响到苹果的出货量。\n结语：多重措施提高抗风险能力，苹果成为最赚钱的公司\nTidBITS的报道认为，苹果通过加大对供应链体系的投入、自主研发芯片、以及打造多元产品以及产品服务等方法，逐渐提高了自身的抗风险能力。\n据今日发布的《福布斯》报告显示，苹果以574亿美元的高利润位居全球公司榜首，成为最赚钱的公司。同时，在营收方面，苹果公司在去年的总营收达到了2.7亿元，位于全球第六。\n此次全球疫情爆发这样的“黑天鹅”事件也为全球企业的发展敲响警钟，企业在快速发展自身业务时，要做好抵抗风险的能力，以免在市场冲击下，造成重大损失。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059084987,"gmtCreate":1654264424649,"gmtModify":1676535421907,"author":{"id":"3583119300391698","authorId":"3583119300391698","name":"lckleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b42a26511a92853d19ef03f25b3530","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583119300391698","idStr":"3583119300391698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Z74.SI\">$新电信(Z74.SI)$</a>😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Z74.SI\">$新电信(Z74.SI)$</a>😂","text":"$新电信(Z74.SI)$😂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/27631ed98ba02d7a6dace48a1755c147","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059084987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067625940,"gmtCreate":1652456082281,"gmtModify":1676535104655,"author":{"id":"3583119300391698","authorId":"3583119300391698","name":"lckleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b42a26511a92853d19ef03f25b3530","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583119300391698","idStr":"3583119300391698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/KO\">$可口可乐(KO)$</a>😁","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/KO\">$可口可乐(KO)$</a>😁","text":"$可口可乐(KO)$😁","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d34184d7fb403bbdbc1162c142c652e8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067625940","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061477849,"gmtCreate":1651672674807,"gmtModify":1676534946199,"author":{"id":"3583119300391698","authorId":"3583119300391698","name":"lckleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b42a26511a92853d19ef03f25b3530","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583119300391698","idStr":"3583119300391698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>😁","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>😁","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$😁","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba3cd0975fbebbc777e5c6b4de21a721","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061477849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096277302,"gmtCreate":1644413447718,"gmtModify":1676533922763,"author":{"id":"3583119300391698","authorId":"3583119300391698","name":"lckleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b42a26511a92853d19ef03f25b3530","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583119300391698","idStr":"3583119300391698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096277302","repostId":"2210536528","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210536528","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644371303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210536528?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-09 09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210536528","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛的首席经济学家发表的一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，在薪资-通胀螺旋上升通道中，只有美联储大幅紧缩才能破局，然而如果美联储无法实现经济“软着陆”——在不影响经济前景的情况下抑制通胀，将会引发远超当前预测的经济放缓。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>虽然从去年7月以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。</p><p>换句话说，<b>如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退</b>。</p><p>周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为"我们需要的放缓"的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。</p><blockquote>在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37f48eca5f2ddd54d1b28ae39bd6d50\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d91c3a804e2e59a2b3a901ebbf065f1\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。</p><p>正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：</p><blockquote>即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。</blockquote><blockquote>这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。</blockquote><p>换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。</p><p>Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：</p><blockquote>无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。</blockquote><p>然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b638c0cc75bbe030f31ed76f96e82eb1\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ad7e31276ea37fe42c0993ef9cf45\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛史上首次警告：美联储超级紧缩可能引发硬着落\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 09:48 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","GS":"高盛","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651447","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210536528","content_text":"虽然从去年7月以来，高盛已经六次下调美国经济增长预期，目前美国2022年平均GDP的预测已降低0.2个百分点至+3.2%，但是在美联储为了遏制通胀鹰派转向以来，高盛首次警告称，美联储的紧缩政策或将引发薪资和通胀进一步扩大，进而使得增长放缓。换句话说，如果美联储的紧缩政策引起经济“硬着陆”，美国或将面临经济衰退。周二，高盛的首席经济学家Jan Hatzius发表了一份标题为\"我们需要的放缓\"的说明中提示，相比华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及的美国1月非农就业意外新增46.7万人，平均每小时工资环比增0.7%才是问题的关键。在过去的2-3个季度里，工资年化率已经加速到6%；而在过去的3、6和12个月里，核心PCE通胀率约为5%。这提出了一个问题，我们是否已经处于薪资-通胀螺旋之中，需要通过美联储积极的加息和大幅收紧来破局。答案无疑是显而易见的，虽然高盛再次“打脸”自己上个月说明中所说的“几乎没有薪资-通胀螺旋上升的迹象”。最新民调显示，55%的受访者正尝试用跳槽威胁要求现有雇主加薪，高通胀是最“正当”的理由之一。市场认为，薪资-通胀螺旋一旦形成，不能排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点的可能性。正像高盛在2021年月复一月将通胀视为“暂时的”之后转变，高盛在承认薪资-通胀螺旋是在上升通道中之后，表示：即使工资增长如我们所期望的从6%下降到5%，这将意味着单位劳动成本通胀至少为3%，假设生产力的增长不超过2%。如果以此速度继续持续下去，对于实现美联储2%的PCE通胀目标来说将是过高的。这就提出了一个风险，即美联储官员希望看到经济产出和就业增长比目前预测的出现更大的放缓，速度将不超过长期趋势。换句话来解释高盛首席经济学家所说的“发达经济体薪资和通胀压力将会扩大，意味着增长需要放缓，货币政策需要在复苏早期阶段收紧”，其实就是美联储的超级紧缩政策或将引发经济衰退。Hatzius解释了其核心市场观点，即：无风险收益率的增加，投资等级IG和高收益HY信贷利差的扩大，叠加到目前为止的疫情后复苏情况，市场将会出现较低的预期回报和较大的潜在缩量。然而，以上结果是基于美联储将以某种方式实现软着陆为前提的。问题是，美联储从未能够实现软着陆，每个紧缩周期之后都伴随以危机告终。而且让问题更加雪上加霜的是，这一次美联储不仅希望通过加息来提升曲线的短端，而且还希望通过积极缩表来迫使收益率曲线变陡，从而使长端抛售的数量超过短端。或将出现的收益率曲线倒挂会预示着经济衰退的开始。虽然高盛的经济学家并没有直接说美国经济将面临崩溃，但是其潜台词似乎已经给了一些暗示。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"GS":1,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":459088937042368,"gmtCreate":1753100890607,"gmtModify":1753100893486,"author":{"id":"3583119300391698","authorId":"3583119300391698","name":"lckleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b42a26511a92853d19ef03f25b3530","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583119300391698","idStr":"3583119300391698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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