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Babyowl

Babyowl

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2024-08-30

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2021-06-23

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@我是股神的小腿毛:每日優鮮vs叮咚買菜，你更看好誰？

2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-22

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Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next

2021-06-22

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October

2021-06-16

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Why Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin

2021-06-16

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Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets

2021-06-11

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&nbsp; Vợ","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; Vợ","text":"Vợ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343951956295752","repostId":"2463227892","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121366513,"gmtCreate":1624454425332,"gmtModify":1703837155708,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121366513","repostId":"123570465","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":123570465,"gmtCreate":1624431845953,"gmtModify":1703836496993,"author":{"id":"20733756400840","authorId":"20733756400840","name":"我是股神的小腿毛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2a54ec91bee908d0ce0a36809b8199","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"20733756400840","idStr":"20733756400840"},"themes":[],"title":"每日優鮮vs叮咚買菜，你更看好誰？","htmlText":"剛剛發現兩家生鮮巨頭每日優鮮和叮咚買菜紛紛更新了招股書，我也剛剛準備申購支持一下，想問問大家對於這兩家，你更看好誰？ 我先來說說，都知道我座標北京，所以我經常用的肯定是美團買菜和每日優鮮，畢竟叮咚的主戰場在上海嘛。第一次使用每日優鮮還是去年2月份，因爲疫情的原因，很難買到蔬菜水果，於是就給市面上的生鮮app全下載了一遍，然後比較了一下覺得每日優鮮最好用，主要是食材新鮮，送貨快。 說到送貨快，就不得不提到前置倉模式，目前國內生鮮電商賽道主要是3條，1條是以叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜等爲代表的前置倉模式，另一條是以盒馬鮮生、大潤發、物美優鮮等爲代表的店倉一體化模式；還有一條是主打社區團購的多多買菜。而叮咚買菜、每日優鮮均屬於前置倉模式，雖然注重了效率，但生鮮電商的前置倉模式，一直是門燒錢的生意，兩家也都沒有整體盈利。 資本的寵兒 燒錢一直是二者爲人詬病的點，不過，由於一場突如起來的疫情，反而重獲了資本的青睞，每日優鮮分別在去年5月、7月、12月，連獲三輪融資。叮咚買菜也在今年年的4月和5月獲得兩輪融資。從融資輪數來看，二者不相上下。 叮咚買菜共計獲得10輪融資，比較知名的投資方包括高榕資本、老虎基金、弘一資本、紅杉資本、CMC資本等。其中，叮咚買菜在遞交IPO前，上月剛剛完成由軟銀願景基金領投的，3.3億美元D+輪融資。結合早前融資，叮咚買菜D輪累計融資金額爲10.3億美元。 每日優鮮同樣受到資本的青睞。自2014年成立以來，先後獲得11輪融資，累計金額超過160億元人民幣（約合25億美元）。比較知名的投資方包括騰訊、老虎基金、光信資本、元璟資本、高盛集團等。 要規模還是要利潤 雖然二者均沒盈利，但是對於方向的選擇卻不相同，目前，叮咚更關注規模效應，融來的錢很快的燒出去，更注重營收增長。每日優鮮則根據每日優鮮則加大了高毛利產品，虧損進一步縮窄。 從每日優鮮招股書數據，其GMV","listText":"剛剛發現兩家生鮮巨頭每日優鮮和叮咚買菜紛紛更新了招股書，我也剛剛準備申購支持一下，想問問大家對於這兩家，你更看好誰？ 我先來說說，都知道我座標北京，所以我經常用的肯定是美團買菜和每日優鮮，畢竟叮咚的主戰場在上海嘛。第一次使用每日優鮮還是去年2月份，因爲疫情的原因，很難買到蔬菜水果，於是就給市面上的生鮮app全下載了一遍，然後比較了一下覺得每日優鮮最好用，主要是食材新鮮，送貨快。 說到送貨快，就不得不提到前置倉模式，目前國內生鮮電商賽道主要是3條，1條是以叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜等爲代表的前置倉模式，另一條是以盒馬鮮生、大潤發、物美優鮮等爲代表的店倉一體化模式；還有一條是主打社區團購的多多買菜。而叮咚買菜、每日優鮮均屬於前置倉模式，雖然注重了效率，但生鮮電商的前置倉模式，一直是門燒錢的生意，兩家也都沒有整體盈利。 資本的寵兒 燒錢一直是二者爲人詬病的點，不過，由於一場突如起來的疫情，反而重獲了資本的青睞，每日優鮮分別在去年5月、7月、12月，連獲三輪融資。叮咚買菜也在今年年的4月和5月獲得兩輪融資。從融資輪數來看，二者不相上下。 叮咚買菜共計獲得10輪融資，比較知名的投資方包括高榕資本、老虎基金、弘一資本、紅杉資本、CMC資本等。其中，叮咚買菜在遞交IPO前，上月剛剛完成由軟銀願景基金領投的，3.3億美元D+輪融資。結合早前融資，叮咚買菜D輪累計融資金額爲10.3億美元。 每日優鮮同樣受到資本的青睞。自2014年成立以來，先後獲得11輪融資，累計金額超過160億元人民幣（約合25億美元）。比較知名的投資方包括騰訊、老虎基金、光信資本、元璟資本、高盛集團等。 要規模還是要利潤 雖然二者均沒盈利，但是對於方向的選擇卻不相同，目前，叮咚更關注規模效應，融來的錢很快的燒出去，更注重營收增長。每日優鮮則根據每日優鮮則加大了高毛利產品，虧損進一步縮窄。 從每日優鮮招股書數據，其GMV","text":"剛剛發現兩家生鮮巨頭每日優鮮和叮咚買菜紛紛更新了招股書，我也剛剛準備申購支持一下，想問問大家對於這兩家，你更看好誰？ 我先來說說，都知道我座標北京，所以我經常用的肯定是美團買菜和每日優鮮，畢竟叮咚的主戰場在上海嘛。第一次使用每日優鮮還是去年2月份，因爲疫情的原因，很難買到蔬菜水果，於是就給市面上的生鮮app全下載了一遍，然後比較了一下覺得每日優鮮最好用，主要是食材新鮮，送貨快。 說到送貨快，就不得不提到前置倉模式，目前國內生鮮電商賽道主要是3條，1條是以叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜等爲代表的前置倉模式，另一條是以盒馬鮮生、大潤發、物美優鮮等爲代表的店倉一體化模式；還有一條是主打社區團購的多多買菜。而叮咚買菜、每日優鮮均屬於前置倉模式，雖然注重了效率，但生鮮電商的前置倉模式，一直是門燒錢的生意，兩家也都沒有整體盈利。 資本的寵兒 燒錢一直是二者爲人詬病的點，不過，由於一場突如起來的疫情，反而重獲了資本的青睞，每日優鮮分別在去年5月、7月、12月，連獲三輪融資。叮咚買菜也在今年年的4月和5月獲得兩輪融資。從融資輪數來看，二者不相上下。 叮咚買菜共計獲得10輪融資，比較知名的投資方包括高榕資本、老虎基金、弘一資本、紅杉資本、CMC資本等。其中，叮咚買菜在遞交IPO前，上月剛剛完成由軟銀願景基金領投的，3.3億美元D+輪融資。結合早前融資，叮咚買菜D輪累計融資金額爲10.3億美元。 每日優鮮同樣受到資本的青睞。自2014年成立以來，先後獲得11輪融資，累計金額超過160億元人民幣（約合25億美元）。比較知名的投資方包括騰訊、老虎基金、光信資本、元璟資本、高盛集團等。 要規模還是要利潤 雖然二者均沒盈利，但是對於方向的選擇卻不相同，目前，叮咚更關注規模效應，融來的錢很快的燒出去，更注重營收增長。每日優鮮則根據每日優鮮則加大了高毛利產品，虧損進一步縮窄。 從每日優鮮招股書數據，其GMV","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec468a40eeadfff41da0a5c86fbf102d","width":"2979","height":"1801"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b15371092a54d182bd0dde6cf20e7d9","width":"3025","height":"1526"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49d5539c10cd9029f66d242b92451a7","width":"742","height":"168"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123570465","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"vote":{"id":1497,"gmtBegin":1624431888441,"gmtEnd":1624863873496,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"每日優鮮vs叮咚買菜，你更看好誰？","choices":[{"id":5520,"sort":1,"name":"每日優鮮","userSize":176,"voted":false},{"id":5521,"sort":2,"name":"叮咚買菜","userSize":169,"voted":false},{"id":5522,"sort":3,"name":"都看好，我全都要","userSize":239,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121368025,"gmtCreate":1624454364067,"gmtModify":1703837153084,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121368025","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121363107,"gmtCreate":1624454289509,"gmtModify":1703837149847,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121363107","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129182771,"gmtCreate":1624365246493,"gmtModify":1703834453495,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129182771","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129186807,"gmtCreate":1624365203209,"gmtModify":1703834449898,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129186807","repostId":"1196246436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167733660,"gmtCreate":1624284266150,"gmtModify":1703832454427,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167733660","repostId":"1171968125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167739100,"gmtCreate":1624284234600,"gmtModify":1703832452619,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167739100","repostId":"1153966184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167794736,"gmtCreate":1624284170825,"gmtModify":1703832449490,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167794736","repostId":"1171968125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171968125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624282019,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171968125?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171968125","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 21) U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Indust","content":"<p>(June 21)&nbsp;U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>The blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p>\n<p>Commodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's&nbsp;\"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.</p>\n<p>The U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.</p>\n<p>Sectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.</p>\n<p>Those sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.</p>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.</p>\n<p>Investors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.</p>\n<p>Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/721381ed3fffc8fb65784c8662c2e5bd\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414a6810bde91ea4d477f0a6190fbb08\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bank&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0aa47ccb01c822ed35519fa4aaf6b0\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 21:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 21)&nbsp;U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>The blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p>\n<p>Commodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's&nbsp;\"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.</p>\n<p>The U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.</p>\n<p>Sectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.</p>\n<p>Those sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.</p>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.</p>\n<p>Investors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.</p>\n<p>Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/721381ed3fffc8fb65784c8662c2e5bd\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414a6810bde91ea4d477f0a6190fbb08\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bank&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0aa47ccb01c822ed35519fa4aaf6b0\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171968125","content_text":"(June 21) U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.\nThe blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.\nCommodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.\nU.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.\n\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"\nThe Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.\nThe U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.\nMeanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.\nSectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.\nThose sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.\nThe Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.\nInvestors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.\nBlockchain stocks fell.\n\nBig tech stocks fell.\n\nBank stocks rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160429407,"gmtCreate":1623804756609,"gmtModify":1703819872389,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160429407","repostId":"1181966550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181966550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623803685,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181966550?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181966550","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Chinese EV manufacturer NIO Inc, which has astrong competitive positioning in the Chinese EV market,","content":"<p>Chinese EV manufacturer&nbsp;<b>NIO Inc</b>, which has astrong competitive positioning&nbsp;in the Chinese EV market, is investing in a used car retailer.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>Beijing-based&nbsp;<b>Uxin Ltd</b>, which operates as a nationwide online used car dealer in China, said&nbsp;<b>Nio Capital,</b>the venture capital arm of Nio, and&nbsp;<b>Joy Capital</b>&nbsp;have&nbsp;agreed to invest up to $315 million in the company.</p>\n<p>Concurrently, Uxin said it has agreed with its convertible note-holders, including&nbsp;<b>58.com, TPG</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Warburg Pincus</b>, to convert their convertible notes in an aggregate principal amount of $69 million into Class A ordinary shares of the company.</p>\n<p>More than 10 important investors, including NIO Capital, Joy Capital and the convertible notes holders, have agreed not to sell their shares in the next nine months.</p>\n<p>The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions stipulated in the agreements.</p>\n<p><b>Why It's Important:</b>Nio's founder, chairman and CEO<b>William Li</b>commended Uxin for its one-stop business model that provides car buyers nationwide with \"high quality vehicles and comprehensive after-sales services.\"</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Joy Capital sees the investment as an attractive opportunity to take advantage of the booming used car market in China.</p>\n<p>For Nio, this should give a sense of déjà vu.</p>\n<p>The company was struggling with an acute cash crunch for much of 2019. Even as rumors regarding a potential bankruptcy swirled around, it&nbsp;received&nbsp;a lifeline in the form of state financial support from the local Hefei government, where its joint-venture manufacturing plant is situated.</p>\n<p>At last check, Nio&nbsp;shares were down 2.79% to $45.19&nbsp;and Uxin, despite the fund infusion, was down 13.32% at $4.49.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-16 08:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chinese EV manufacturer&nbsp;<b>NIO Inc</b>, which has astrong competitive positioning&nbsp;in the Chinese EV market, is investing in a used car retailer.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>Beijing-based&nbsp;<b>Uxin Ltd</b>, which operates as a nationwide online used car dealer in China, said&nbsp;<b>Nio Capital,</b>the venture capital arm of Nio, and&nbsp;<b>Joy Capital</b>&nbsp;have&nbsp;agreed to invest up to $315 million in the company.</p>\n<p>Concurrently, Uxin said it has agreed with its convertible note-holders, including&nbsp;<b>58.com, TPG</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Warburg Pincus</b>, to convert their convertible notes in an aggregate principal amount of $69 million into Class A ordinary shares of the company.</p>\n<p>More than 10 important investors, including NIO Capital, Joy Capital and the convertible notes holders, have agreed not to sell their shares in the next nine months.</p>\n<p>The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions stipulated in the agreements.</p>\n<p><b>Why It's Important:</b>Nio's founder, chairman and CEO<b>William Li</b>commended Uxin for its one-stop business model that provides car buyers nationwide with \"high quality vehicles and comprehensive after-sales services.\"</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Joy Capital sees the investment as an attractive opportunity to take advantage of the booming used car market in China.</p>\n<p>For Nio, this should give a sense of déjà vu.</p>\n<p>The company was struggling with an acute cash crunch for much of 2019. Even as rumors regarding a potential bankruptcy swirled around, it&nbsp;received&nbsp;a lifeline in the form of state financial support from the local Hefei government, where its joint-venture manufacturing plant is situated.</p>\n<p>At last check, Nio&nbsp;shares were down 2.79% to $45.19&nbsp;and Uxin, despite the fund infusion, was down 13.32% at $4.49.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","UXIN":"优信"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181966550","content_text":"Chinese EV manufacturer NIO Inc, which has astrong competitive positioning in the Chinese EV market, is investing in a used car retailer.\nWhat Happened:Beijing-based Uxin Ltd, which operates as a nationwide online used car dealer in China, said Nio Capital,the venture capital arm of Nio, and Joy Capital have agreed to invest up to $315 million in the company.\nConcurrently, Uxin said it has agreed with its convertible note-holders, including 58.com, TPG and Warburg Pincus, to convert their convertible notes in an aggregate principal amount of $69 million into Class A ordinary shares of the company.\nMore than 10 important investors, including NIO Capital, Joy Capital and the convertible notes holders, have agreed not to sell their shares in the next nine months.\nThe transaction is subject to customary closing conditions stipulated in the agreements.\nWhy It's Important:Nio's founder, chairman and CEOWilliam Licommended Uxin for its one-stop business model that provides car buyers nationwide with \"high quality vehicles and comprehensive after-sales services.\"\nMeanwhile, Joy Capital sees the investment as an attractive opportunity to take advantage of the booming used car market in China.\nFor Nio, this should give a sense of déjà vu.\nThe company was struggling with an acute cash crunch for much of 2019. Even as rumors regarding a potential bankruptcy swirled around, it received a lifeline in the form of state financial support from the local Hefei government, where its joint-venture manufacturing plant is situated.\nAt last check, Nio shares were down 2.79% to $45.19 and Uxin, despite the fund infusion, was down 13.32% at $4.49.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UXIN":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160377796,"gmtCreate":1623773794115,"gmtModify":1703819113410,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160377796","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183725796,"gmtCreate":1623362458415,"gmtModify":1704201542188,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yahoo","listText":"Yahoo","text":"Yahoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183725796","repostId":"2142226735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167733660,"gmtCreate":1624284266150,"gmtModify":1703832454427,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167733660","repostId":"1171968125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171968125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624282019,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171968125?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171968125","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 21) U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Indust","content":"<p>(June 21)&nbsp;U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>The blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p>\n<p>Commodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's&nbsp;\"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.</p>\n<p>The U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.</p>\n<p>Sectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.</p>\n<p>Those sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.</p>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.</p>\n<p>Investors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.</p>\n<p>Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/721381ed3fffc8fb65784c8662c2e5bd\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414a6810bde91ea4d477f0a6190fbb08\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bank&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0aa47ccb01c822ed35519fa4aaf6b0\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 21:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 21)&nbsp;U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>The blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p>\n<p>Commodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's&nbsp;\"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.</p>\n<p>The U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.</p>\n<p>Sectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.</p>\n<p>Those sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.</p>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.</p>\n<p>Investors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.</p>\n<p>Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/721381ed3fffc8fb65784c8662c2e5bd\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414a6810bde91ea4d477f0a6190fbb08\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bank&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0aa47ccb01c822ed35519fa4aaf6b0\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171968125","content_text":"(June 21) U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.\nThe blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.\nCommodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.\nU.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.\n\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"\nThe Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.\nThe U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.\nMeanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.\nSectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.\nThose sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.\nThe Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.\nInvestors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.\nBlockchain stocks fell.\n\nBig tech stocks fell.\n\nBank stocks rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160429407,"gmtCreate":1623804756609,"gmtModify":1703819872389,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160429407","repostId":"1181966550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181966550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623803685,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181966550?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181966550","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Chinese EV manufacturer NIO Inc, which has astrong competitive positioning in the Chinese EV market,","content":"<p>Chinese EV manufacturer&nbsp;<b>NIO Inc</b>, which has astrong competitive positioning&nbsp;in the Chinese EV market, is investing in a used car retailer.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>Beijing-based&nbsp;<b>Uxin Ltd</b>, which operates as a nationwide online used car dealer in China, said&nbsp;<b>Nio Capital,</b>the venture capital arm of Nio, and&nbsp;<b>Joy Capital</b>&nbsp;have&nbsp;agreed to invest up to $315 million in the company.</p>\n<p>Concurrently, Uxin said it has agreed with its convertible note-holders, including&nbsp;<b>58.com, TPG</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Warburg Pincus</b>, to convert their convertible notes in an aggregate principal amount of $69 million into Class A ordinary shares of the company.</p>\n<p>More than 10 important investors, including NIO Capital, Joy Capital and the convertible notes holders, have agreed not to sell their shares in the next nine months.</p>\n<p>The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions stipulated in the agreements.</p>\n<p><b>Why It's Important:</b>Nio's founder, chairman and CEO<b>William Li</b>commended Uxin for its one-stop business model that provides car buyers nationwide with \"high quality vehicles and comprehensive after-sales services.\"</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Joy Capital sees the investment as an attractive opportunity to take advantage of the booming used car market in China.</p>\n<p>For Nio, this should give a sense of déjà vu.</p>\n<p>The company was struggling with an acute cash crunch for much of 2019. Even as rumors regarding a potential bankruptcy swirled around, it&nbsp;received&nbsp;a lifeline in the form of state financial support from the local Hefei government, where its joint-venture manufacturing plant is situated.</p>\n<p>At last check, Nio&nbsp;shares were down 2.79% to $45.19&nbsp;and Uxin, despite the fund infusion, was down 13.32% at $4.49.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Nio Is Investing In Chinese Online Used Car Dealer Uxin\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-16 08:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chinese EV manufacturer&nbsp;<b>NIO Inc</b>, which has astrong competitive positioning&nbsp;in the Chinese EV market, is investing in a used car retailer.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>Beijing-based&nbsp;<b>Uxin Ltd</b>, which operates as a nationwide online used car dealer in China, said&nbsp;<b>Nio Capital,</b>the venture capital arm of Nio, and&nbsp;<b>Joy Capital</b>&nbsp;have&nbsp;agreed to invest up to $315 million in the company.</p>\n<p>Concurrently, Uxin said it has agreed with its convertible note-holders, including&nbsp;<b>58.com, TPG</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Warburg Pincus</b>, to convert their convertible notes in an aggregate principal amount of $69 million into Class A ordinary shares of the company.</p>\n<p>More than 10 important investors, including NIO Capital, Joy Capital and the convertible notes holders, have agreed not to sell their shares in the next nine months.</p>\n<p>The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions stipulated in the agreements.</p>\n<p><b>Why It's Important:</b>Nio's founder, chairman and CEO<b>William Li</b>commended Uxin for its one-stop business model that provides car buyers nationwide with \"high quality vehicles and comprehensive after-sales services.\"</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Joy Capital sees the investment as an attractive opportunity to take advantage of the booming used car market in China.</p>\n<p>For Nio, this should give a sense of déjà vu.</p>\n<p>The company was struggling with an acute cash crunch for much of 2019. Even as rumors regarding a potential bankruptcy swirled around, it&nbsp;received&nbsp;a lifeline in the form of state financial support from the local Hefei government, where its joint-venture manufacturing plant is situated.</p>\n<p>At last check, Nio&nbsp;shares were down 2.79% to $45.19&nbsp;and Uxin, despite the fund infusion, was down 13.32% at $4.49.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","UXIN":"优信"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181966550","content_text":"Chinese EV manufacturer NIO Inc, which has astrong competitive positioning in the Chinese EV market, is investing in a used car retailer.\nWhat Happened:Beijing-based Uxin Ltd, which operates as a nationwide online used car dealer in China, said Nio Capital,the venture capital arm of Nio, and Joy Capital have agreed to invest up to $315 million in the company.\nConcurrently, Uxin said it has agreed with its convertible note-holders, including 58.com, TPG and Warburg Pincus, to convert their convertible notes in an aggregate principal amount of $69 million into Class A ordinary shares of the company.\nMore than 10 important investors, including NIO Capital, Joy Capital and the convertible notes holders, have agreed not to sell their shares in the next nine months.\nThe transaction is subject to customary closing conditions stipulated in the agreements.\nWhy It's Important:Nio's founder, chairman and CEOWilliam Licommended Uxin for its one-stop business model that provides car buyers nationwide with \"high quality vehicles and comprehensive after-sales services.\"\nMeanwhile, Joy Capital sees the investment as an attractive opportunity to take advantage of the booming used car market in China.\nFor Nio, this should give a sense of déjà vu.\nThe company was struggling with an acute cash crunch for much of 2019. Even as rumors regarding a potential bankruptcy swirled around, it received a lifeline in the form of state financial support from the local Hefei government, where its joint-venture manufacturing plant is situated.\nAt last check, Nio shares were down 2.79% to $45.19 and Uxin, despite the fund infusion, was down 13.32% at $4.49.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UXIN":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129182771,"gmtCreate":1624365246493,"gmtModify":1703834453495,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129182771","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167794736,"gmtCreate":1624284170825,"gmtModify":1703832449490,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167794736","repostId":"1171968125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171968125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624282019,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171968125?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171968125","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 21) U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Indust","content":"<p>(June 21)&nbsp;U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>The blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p>\n<p>Commodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's&nbsp;\"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.</p>\n<p>The U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.</p>\n<p>Sectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.</p>\n<p>Those sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.</p>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.</p>\n<p>Investors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.</p>\n<p>Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/721381ed3fffc8fb65784c8662c2e5bd\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414a6810bde91ea4d477f0a6190fbb08\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bank&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0aa47ccb01c822ed35519fa4aaf6b0\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow jumps more than 200 points, rebounds from its worst week since October\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 21:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 21)&nbsp;U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>The blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p>\n<p>Commodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's&nbsp;\"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.</p>\n<p>The U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.</p>\n<p>Sectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.</p>\n<p>Those sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.</p>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.</p>\n<p>Investors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.</p>\n<p>Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/721381ed3fffc8fb65784c8662c2e5bd\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Big&nbsp;tech&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414a6810bde91ea4d477f0a6190fbb08\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Bank&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0aa47ccb01c822ed35519fa4aaf6b0\" tg-width=\"312\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171968125","content_text":"(June 21) U.S. stocks climbed on Monday as the market attempted to rebound from the Dow Jones Industrial average's worst week since October.\nThe blue-chip Dow rose 220 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.\nCommodity stocks that were hit hard last week were rebounding, including Exxon and Chevron up about 1% apiece. Reopening plays including Royal Caribbean and Boeing were slightly higher. Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also rebounded.\nU.S. stocks fell last week as investors digested new economic projections from the Federal Reserve and worried rate hikes could come sooner than expected. The Fed on Wednesdayraised its inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes in 2023. St. Louis Fed President Jim BullardsaidFriday on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\"that it was natural for the central bank to tilt a little more \"hawkish\" and saw higher interest rates as soon as 2022.\n\"The Fed's 'surprise' move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago,\" Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. \"When combined with the peak rate of change in economic and earnings revisions, it sets up a more difficult summer.\"\nThe Dow dropped 3.5% last week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, on the week.\nThe U.S. market on Monday was resilient in the face of an overnight drop in Asian markets and a big decline in bitcoin. Japan'sNikkei 225 fell as muchas 4% at one point on Monday with automakers Nissan and Honda leading the way. It would end up closing about 3% lower.\nMeanwhile, bitcoinfell more than 6% to $33,000as China continued its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.\nSectors tied to the economic recovery led last week's dip in stocks. The S&P 500 financials and materials sectors lost more than 6% on the week, while energy fell more than 5% and industrials dropped more than 3%.\nThose sectors looked set to rebound Monday. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was rebounding by 0.3% in premarket trading. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was higher by 0.6%.\nThe Treasury yield curve flattened last week, hitting banks and sending a signal of a potential economic slowdown. The yields of shorter-term Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose — reflecting expectations of the Fed raising rates. Longer-term yields, like the 10-year note, retreated — a sign of less optimism toward economic growth.\nInvestors await public appearances from Fed members on Monday. Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak virtually on a Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9:00 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams is expected to deliver remarks at a Midsize Bank Coalition of America event Monday afternoon.\nBlockchain stocks fell.\n\nBig tech stocks fell.\n\nBank stocks rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160377796,"gmtCreate":1623773794115,"gmtModify":1703819113410,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160377796","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121368025,"gmtCreate":1624454364067,"gmtModify":1703837153084,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121368025","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121363107,"gmtCreate":1624454289509,"gmtModify":1703837149847,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121363107","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183725796,"gmtCreate":1623362458415,"gmtModify":1704201542188,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yahoo","listText":"Yahoo","text":"Yahoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183725796","repostId":"2142226735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343951956295752,"gmtCreate":1725002144887,"gmtModify":1725002148512,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; Vợ","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; Vợ","text":"Vợ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343951956295752","repostId":"2463227892","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121366513,"gmtCreate":1624454425332,"gmtModify":1703837155708,"author":{"id":"3584240189191061","authorId":"3584240189191061","name":"Babyowl","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68df35b15b728b6a16379cdbf87367a7","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584240189191061","idStr":"3584240189191061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121366513","repostId":"123570465","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":123570465,"gmtCreate":1624431845953,"gmtModify":1703836496993,"author":{"id":"20733756400840","authorId":"20733756400840","name":"我是股神的小腿毛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2a54ec91bee908d0ce0a36809b8199","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"20733756400840","idStr":"20733756400840"},"themes":[],"title":"每日優鮮vs叮咚買菜，你更看好誰？","htmlText":"剛剛發現兩家生鮮巨頭每日優鮮和叮咚買菜紛紛更新了招股書，我也剛剛準備申購支持一下，想問問大家對於這兩家，你更看好誰？ 我先來說說，都知道我座標北京，所以我經常用的肯定是美團買菜和每日優鮮，畢竟叮咚的主戰場在上海嘛。第一次使用每日優鮮還是去年2月份，因爲疫情的原因，很難買到蔬菜水果，於是就給市面上的生鮮app全下載了一遍，然後比較了一下覺得每日優鮮最好用，主要是食材新鮮，送貨快。 說到送貨快，就不得不提到前置倉模式，目前國內生鮮電商賽道主要是3條，1條是以叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜等爲代表的前置倉模式，另一條是以盒馬鮮生、大潤發、物美優鮮等爲代表的店倉一體化模式；還有一條是主打社區團購的多多買菜。而叮咚買菜、每日優鮮均屬於前置倉模式，雖然注重了效率，但生鮮電商的前置倉模式，一直是門燒錢的生意，兩家也都沒有整體盈利。 資本的寵兒 燒錢一直是二者爲人詬病的點，不過，由於一場突如起來的疫情，反而重獲了資本的青睞，每日優鮮分別在去年5月、7月、12月，連獲三輪融資。叮咚買菜也在今年年的4月和5月獲得兩輪融資。從融資輪數來看，二者不相上下。 叮咚買菜共計獲得10輪融資，比較知名的投資方包括高榕資本、老虎基金、弘一資本、紅杉資本、CMC資本等。其中，叮咚買菜在遞交IPO前，上月剛剛完成由軟銀願景基金領投的，3.3億美元D+輪融資。結合早前融資，叮咚買菜D輪累計融資金額爲10.3億美元。 每日優鮮同樣受到資本的青睞。自2014年成立以來，先後獲得11輪融資，累計金額超過160億元人民幣（約合25億美元）。比較知名的投資方包括騰訊、老虎基金、光信資本、元璟資本、高盛集團等。 要規模還是要利潤 雖然二者均沒盈利，但是對於方向的選擇卻不相同，目前，叮咚更關注規模效應，融來的錢很快的燒出去，更注重營收增長。每日優鮮則根據每日優鮮則加大了高毛利產品，虧損進一步縮窄。 從每日優鮮招股書數據，其GMV","listText":"剛剛發現兩家生鮮巨頭每日優鮮和叮咚買菜紛紛更新了招股書，我也剛剛準備申購支持一下，想問問大家對於這兩家，你更看好誰？ 我先來說說，都知道我座標北京，所以我經常用的肯定是美團買菜和每日優鮮，畢竟叮咚的主戰場在上海嘛。第一次使用每日優鮮還是去年2月份，因爲疫情的原因，很難買到蔬菜水果，於是就給市面上的生鮮app全下載了一遍，然後比較了一下覺得每日優鮮最好用，主要是食材新鮮，送貨快。 說到送貨快，就不得不提到前置倉模式，目前國內生鮮電商賽道主要是3條，1條是以叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜等爲代表的前置倉模式，另一條是以盒馬鮮生、大潤發、物美優鮮等爲代表的店倉一體化模式；還有一條是主打社區團購的多多買菜。而叮咚買菜、每日優鮮均屬於前置倉模式，雖然注重了效率，但生鮮電商的前置倉模式，一直是門燒錢的生意，兩家也都沒有整體盈利。 資本的寵兒 燒錢一直是二者爲人詬病的點，不過，由於一場突如起來的疫情，反而重獲了資本的青睞，每日優鮮分別在去年5月、7月、12月，連獲三輪融資。叮咚買菜也在今年年的4月和5月獲得兩輪融資。從融資輪數來看，二者不相上下。 叮咚買菜共計獲得10輪融資，比較知名的投資方包括高榕資本、老虎基金、弘一資本、紅杉資本、CMC資本等。其中，叮咚買菜在遞交IPO前，上月剛剛完成由軟銀願景基金領投的，3.3億美元D+輪融資。結合早前融資，叮咚買菜D輪累計融資金額爲10.3億美元。 每日優鮮同樣受到資本的青睞。自2014年成立以來，先後獲得11輪融資，累計金額超過160億元人民幣（約合25億美元）。比較知名的投資方包括騰訊、老虎基金、光信資本、元璟資本、高盛集團等。 要規模還是要利潤 雖然二者均沒盈利，但是對於方向的選擇卻不相同，目前，叮咚更關注規模效應，融來的錢很快的燒出去，更注重營收增長。每日優鮮則根據每日優鮮則加大了高毛利產品，虧損進一步縮窄。 從每日優鮮招股書數據，其GMV","text":"剛剛發現兩家生鮮巨頭每日優鮮和叮咚買菜紛紛更新了招股書，我也剛剛準備申購支持一下，想問問大家對於這兩家，你更看好誰？ 我先來說說，都知道我座標北京，所以我經常用的肯定是美團買菜和每日優鮮，畢竟叮咚的主戰場在上海嘛。第一次使用每日優鮮還是去年2月份，因爲疫情的原因，很難買到蔬菜水果，於是就給市面上的生鮮app全下載了一遍，然後比較了一下覺得每日優鮮最好用，主要是食材新鮮，送貨快。 說到送貨快，就不得不提到前置倉模式，目前國內生鮮電商賽道主要是3條，1條是以叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜等爲代表的前置倉模式，另一條是以盒馬鮮生、大潤發、物美優鮮等爲代表的店倉一體化模式；還有一條是主打社區團購的多多買菜。而叮咚買菜、每日優鮮均屬於前置倉模式，雖然注重了效率，但生鮮電商的前置倉模式，一直是門燒錢的生意，兩家也都沒有整體盈利。 資本的寵兒 燒錢一直是二者爲人詬病的點，不過，由於一場突如起來的疫情，反而重獲了資本的青睞，每日優鮮分別在去年5月、7月、12月，連獲三輪融資。叮咚買菜也在今年年的4月和5月獲得兩輪融資。從融資輪數來看，二者不相上下。 叮咚買菜共計獲得10輪融資，比較知名的投資方包括高榕資本、老虎基金、弘一資本、紅杉資本、CMC資本等。其中，叮咚買菜在遞交IPO前，上月剛剛完成由軟銀願景基金領投的，3.3億美元D+輪融資。結合早前融資，叮咚買菜D輪累計融資金額爲10.3億美元。 每日優鮮同樣受到資本的青睞。自2014年成立以來，先後獲得11輪融資，累計金額超過160億元人民幣（約合25億美元）。比較知名的投資方包括騰訊、老虎基金、光信資本、元璟資本、高盛集團等。 要規模還是要利潤 雖然二者均沒盈利，但是對於方向的選擇卻不相同，目前，叮咚更關注規模效應，融來的錢很快的燒出去，更注重營收增長。每日優鮮則根據每日優鮮則加大了高毛利產品，虧損進一步縮窄。 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