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2022-05-09
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The sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?
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2022-02-07
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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961374184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961008539,"gmtCreate":1668777452721,"gmtModify":1676538112323,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584489883977095","authorIdStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961008539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023072918,"gmtCreate":1652841447434,"gmtModify":1676535173457,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584489883977095","authorIdStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023072918","repostId":"1119599609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062490112,"gmtCreate":1652094021436,"gmtModify":1676535027455,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584489883977095","authorIdStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062490112","repostId":"1122098756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122098756","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1652091425,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122098756?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 18:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122098756","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the saying goes, \"May is poor, June is wonderful, and July is a Many A-share investors have likely heard this stock market proverb.</p><p>In previous years, spring has often been a period of \"spring rally\" in the stock market. After companies release their annual and first-quarter reports, the stock market is likely to experience a temporary correction to digest the valuation bubble during the \"spring rally,\" and this correction is often particularly severe before the end of each six-month period. After six months, the market has entered the semi-annual report disclosure cycle. Off-market active funds that left the market during the adjustment process are likely to take advantage of the expectation of semi-annual report growth to launch a \"seven-year turnaround\" rally. This cycle constitutes the saying \"May is poor, June is disastrous, and July is a turning point\".</p><p>Wall Street also has a similar proverb: \"Sell in May and go away\". This means selling in May and then leaving the stock market. The \"May Curse\" was first published in the Financial Times on May 10, 1935, and has been published ever since.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>It is widely circulated. Although it may seem somewhat mysterious, historical statistics show that the return on holding shares from November to April of the following year is significantly higher than the return on holding shares in the six months from May to October. Recent stock market turmoil suggests that the \"May curse\" may be playing out again.</p><p><b>Stock market crash</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, only six of the world's 40 major stock indices have risen, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The gains in the index and Brazil's BOVESPA index were almost negligible, while the other 34 major stock indices were all in decline. The Russian stock market, embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experienced the biggest drop, falling by more than 30%, making it the world's largest bear market. Following closely behind were the Shenzhen Component Index, which fell 27.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell 22.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefe089190e73255f15200273a5b2223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Performance of major global stock indices this year, source: Investing.com</p><p>Starting in April, US stocks suddenly accelerated their decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 13.26% in April, and the decline continued into May. Last Friday, it hit its lowest closing level since 2020, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline and the longest weekly decline since the fourth quarter of 2012. The S&P 500 fell 8.8% in April, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline and its longest weekly losing streak since the second quarter of 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed slightly better, falling 4.91% in April.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike sword hangs high</b></p><p>In early May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise rate hike by 50 basis points to the 0.75%-1.00% range. This was the first significant rate hike of 50 basis points since 2000, but it was not as aggressive as the market's expectation of 75 basis points in rate hike. At the same time, it was announced that shrinking balance sheet would begin on June 1 at a rate of $47.5 billion per month, and the shrinking balance sheet cap would be gradually raised to $95 billion per month within three months, which also fell short of market expectations for the progress of the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>At the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a 75-basis-point rate hike range was not worth considering, and that a 50-basis-point range for rate hike would be an option in the next few meetings, possibly followed by a 25-basis-point range for rate hike after rate hike. The FOMC estimates the neutral interest rate to be between 2% and 3%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's actions and Powell's remarks dispelled expectations of aggressive market tightening, and U.S. stocks rose sharply that day. However, just one day later, expectations of aggressive rate hike reignited in the market, causing US stocks to plummet.</p><p>Judging from the wild rise and fall of US stocks, market panic about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike remains. According to Investing.com's interest rate watcher, the probability of the Federal Reserve rate hike 75 basis points in June is 82.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b01f7b991072adcb80ed6f24bdfa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Interest Rate Watcher, source: Investing.com</p><p>The primary culprit behind this round of US stock market crash is the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Since shifting to a hawkish stance last year, the Federal Reserve has ended its stimulus measures and conducted two consecutive rate hike, raised its rate hike range from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, and does not rule out a future rate hike of 75 basis points. It has also launched a balance sheet reduction program. Regardless of what the Federal Reserve says, setting aside expectation management, its actual actions are becoming increasingly aggressive.</p><p>This is inseparable from the out-of-control inflation in the United States. This week, the United States will release CPI and PPI data again. If there are signs that inflation has peaked, the Federal Reserve's tightening process may slow down, and the US stock market may have a chance to catch its breath. If inflation remains high, the May curse will play out again.</p><p>In addition, the risk of a recession in the US economy is also increasing. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of this year, and the yield curve had also inverted at one point, which posed a hidden crisis for the stock market.</p><p><b>The May selling strategy may be more effective for A-shares.</b></p><p>Since the US stock market has been in a bull market for more than a decade, although the performance of the summer stock market is often not as good as that of the spring, the continued bull market in the US stock market will cause investors to miss out on some of the gains, resulting in a decline in overall returns. According to statistics, using this strategy, the maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 index will decrease from 52% to 32%, but the annualized return will decrease from 8.78% to 6.98%. In other words, while this strategy reduces overall pullback/retracement, it also lowers absolute returns.</p><p>Compared to US stocks, the selling strategy in May had a more significant effect on A-shares, which tend to fluctuate. According to statistics, using this strategy will reduce the maximum pullback/retracement from 70% to 41%, and increase the annualized return from 3.48% to 8.59%.</p><p><b>Ending</b></p><p>In a bull market, a selling strategy in May may not be ideal. However, given the current crisis, a temporary exit would be the safest option. Perhaps after the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hike in June and July, the negative news for US stocks has been exhausted and a window of opportunity may emerge.</p><p>The next sentence to \"Sell in May and go away\" is \"but remember to come back in September.\" But don't forget to come back in September.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-09 18:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the saying goes, \"May is poor, June is wonderful, and July is a Many A-share investors have likely heard this stock market proverb.</p><p>In previous years, spring has often been a period of \"spring rally\" in the stock market. After companies release their annual and first-quarter reports, the stock market is likely to experience a temporary correction to digest the valuation bubble during the \"spring rally,\" and this correction is often particularly severe before the end of each six-month period. After six months, the market has entered the semi-annual report disclosure cycle. Off-market active funds that left the market during the adjustment process are likely to take advantage of the expectation of semi-annual report growth to launch a \"seven-year turnaround\" rally. This cycle constitutes the saying \"May is poor, June is disastrous, and July is a turning point\".</p><p>Wall Street also has a similar proverb: \"Sell in May and go away\". This means selling in May and then leaving the stock market. The \"May Curse\" was first published in the Financial Times on May 10, 1935, and has been published ever since.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>It is widely circulated. Although it may seem somewhat mysterious, historical statistics show that the return on holding shares from November to April of the following year is significantly higher than the return on holding shares in the six months from May to October. Recent stock market turmoil suggests that the \"May curse\" may be playing out again.</p><p><b>Stock market crash</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, only six of the world's 40 major stock indices have risen, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The gains in the index and Brazil's BOVESPA index were almost negligible, while the other 34 major stock indices were all in decline. The Russian stock market, embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experienced the biggest drop, falling by more than 30%, making it the world's largest bear market. Following closely behind were the Shenzhen Component Index, which fell 27.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell 22.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefe089190e73255f15200273a5b2223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Performance of major global stock indices this year, source: Investing.com</p><p>Starting in April, US stocks suddenly accelerated their decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 13.26% in April, and the decline continued into May. Last Friday, it hit its lowest closing level since 2020, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline and the longest weekly decline since the fourth quarter of 2012. The S&P 500 fell 8.8% in April, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline and its longest weekly losing streak since the second quarter of 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed slightly better, falling 4.91% in April.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike sword hangs high</b></p><p>In early May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise rate hike by 50 basis points to the 0.75%-1.00% range. This was the first significant rate hike of 50 basis points since 2000, but it was not as aggressive as the market's expectation of 75 basis points in rate hike. At the same time, it was announced that shrinking balance sheet would begin on June 1 at a rate of $47.5 billion per month, and the shrinking balance sheet cap would be gradually raised to $95 billion per month within three months, which also fell short of market expectations for the progress of the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>At the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a 75-basis-point rate hike range was not worth considering, and that a 50-basis-point range for rate hike would be an option in the next few meetings, possibly followed by a 25-basis-point range for rate hike after rate hike. The FOMC estimates the neutral interest rate to be between 2% and 3%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's actions and Powell's remarks dispelled expectations of aggressive market tightening, and U.S. stocks rose sharply that day. However, just one day later, expectations of aggressive rate hike reignited in the market, causing US stocks to plummet.</p><p>Judging from the wild rise and fall of US stocks, market panic about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike remains. According to Investing.com's interest rate watcher, the probability of the Federal Reserve rate hike 75 basis points in June is 82.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b01f7b991072adcb80ed6f24bdfa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Interest Rate Watcher, source: Investing.com</p><p>The primary culprit behind this round of US stock market crash is the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Since shifting to a hawkish stance last year, the Federal Reserve has ended its stimulus measures and conducted two consecutive rate hike, raised its rate hike range from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, and does not rule out a future rate hike of 75 basis points. It has also launched a balance sheet reduction program. Regardless of what the Federal Reserve says, setting aside expectation management, its actual actions are becoming increasingly aggressive.</p><p>This is inseparable from the out-of-control inflation in the United States. This week, the United States will release CPI and PPI data again. If there are signs that inflation has peaked, the Federal Reserve's tightening process may slow down, and the US stock market may have a chance to catch its breath. If inflation remains high, the May curse will play out again.</p><p>In addition, the risk of a recession in the US economy is also increasing. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of this year, and the yield curve had also inverted at one point, which posed a hidden crisis for the stock market.</p><p><b>The May selling strategy may be more effective for A-shares.</b></p><p>Since the US stock market has been in a bull market for more than a decade, although the performance of the summer stock market is often not as good as that of the spring, the continued bull market in the US stock market will cause investors to miss out on some of the gains, resulting in a decline in overall returns. According to statistics, using this strategy, the maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 index will decrease from 52% to 32%, but the annualized return will decrease from 8.78% to 6.98%. In other words, while this strategy reduces overall pullback/retracement, it also lowers absolute returns.</p><p>Compared to US stocks, the selling strategy in May had a more significant effect on A-shares, which tend to fluctuate. According to statistics, using this strategy will reduce the maximum pullback/retracement from 70% to 41%, and increase the annualized return from 3.48% to 8.59%.</p><p><b>Ending</b></p><p>In a bull market, a selling strategy in May may not be ideal. However, given the current crisis, a temporary exit would be the safest option. Perhaps after the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hike in June and July, the negative news for US stocks has been exhausted and a window of opportunity may emerge.</p><p>The next sentence to \"Sell in May and go away\" is \"but remember to come back in September.\" But don't forget to come back in September.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122098756","content_text":"正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春季躁动”上涨过程中的估值泡沫,而这种回调往往在每个半年结束前显得尤为剧烈。半年结束后，市场进入了半年报披露周期，而此前在调整过程中离场的场外活跃资金，很可能借助半年报增长的预期，发动一波“七翻身”的上涨行情。这样的循环，就构成了“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法。华尔街也同样有一句类似的谚语，叫“Sell in May and go away”。意思是在五月份卖出，然后离开股市。“五月魔咒”最早刊登于1935年5月10日的《金融时报》，此后一直在金融界广为流传。虽然看起来有些玄学，但是根据历史统计，11月至次年4月的持有收益率显著大于在5月至10月这半年的持有收益率。而近期股市的动荡表明“5月魔咒”或将再次上演。股市暴跌今年年初至今，全球40大主要股指中，仅有六个股指处于上涨，其中英国富时100指数和巴西BOVESPA指数涨幅几乎可以忽略不计，其余34大股指均处于下跌状态。跌幅最大的当属深陷俄乌冲突的俄罗斯股市，跌幅达30%以上，熊冠全球。紧随其后的是深证成份指数下跌27.77%和纳斯达克综合指数 下跌22.37%。全球主要股指今年表现，来源：Investing.com从4月份开始，美股突然加速下跌。纳斯达克综合指数 在4月下跌了13.26%，而且跌势延续到了5月，上周五更是创下2020年以来最低收盘水平，周线连续第五周下跌，创2012年第四季以来持续时间最长的周线跌势；美国标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了8.8%，目前已经连续五周下跌，创自2011年第二季以来持续时间最长的周线下跌；道琼斯工业平均指数 4月下跌4.91%表现稍好。美联储加息利剑高悬5月初，美联储刚刚宣布加息50个基点至0.75%-1.00%区间，这是2000年以来首次大幅加息50个基点，但是与市场预期的加息75个基点相比并不算激进；同时宣布6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，并在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元，与市场预期的缩表进度也有差距。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示75个基点的加息幅度并不值得考虑，未来几次会议加息50个基点是选项，可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点。FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。美联储的行动和鲍威尔的发言打消了市场激进紧缩的预期，美股当日大幅上涨。但是仅仅一天之后，市场激进加息预期重燃，美股重挫。从美股暴涨暴跌的走势来看，市场对于美联储激进加息的恐慌犹存。根据Investing.com的利率观测器，美联储在6月加息75基点的概率达到82.9%。美联储利率观测器，来源：Investing.com本轮美股暴跌的首要元凶就是美联储的紧缩政策。自去年转向鹰派以来，美联储已经结束了刺激措施并连续加息两次，加息幅度从25基点上升到了50基点，且不排除未来加息75基点，并启动了缩减资产负债表的计划。不管美联储如何说，抛开预期管理不谈，美联储的实际行动却是越来越激进的。这与美国失控的通胀密不可分，本周美国将再次公布CPI和PPI数据，若出现通胀见顶的信号，美联储的紧缩进程或将放缓，美股或迎来喘息之机；若通胀继续高企，5月魔咒将再次上演。此外，美国经济出现衰退的风险也在加大。美国今年第一季国内生产总值（GDP）意外地萎缩1.4％，此前收益率也一度出现倒挂的情况，这对股市也暗藏危机。5月卖出策略或对A股更加有效由于美股已经持续了十多年的牛市，虽然多数时候夏季股市的表现不如春季，但是美股的持续牛市会令投资者错过一部分涨幅，导致整体收益下降。据统计，使用该策略的话，标普500指数最大回撤会从52%下降至32%，但年化收益率从8.78%下降至6.98%。也就是说，该策略虽然降低了整体回撤，但绝对收益也被拉低了。相对美股，5月卖出策略对偏向震荡的A股效果更加明显。据统计，使用该策略的话，最大回撤会从70 %下降至41%，年化收益率从3.48%提升至8.59%。尾声在牛市当中，5月份卖出的策略可能并不理想。但是在危机四伏的当下，暂时的离场将是最稳妥的选择。或许在6月7月美联储激进加息暂缓之后，美股利空出尽或将迎来机会窗口。Sell in May and go away（5月卖出并离开）的下一句则是but remember to come back in September（但别忘了在九月回来）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098552795,"gmtCreate":1644192936636,"gmtModify":1676533897479,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584489883977095","authorIdStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098552795","repostId":"2209405933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":267234281017632,"gmtCreate":1706273831531,"gmtModify":1706273834484,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584489883977095","authorIdStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961008539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062490112,"gmtCreate":1652094021436,"gmtModify":1676535027455,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584489883977095","authorIdStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062490112","repostId":"1122098756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122098756","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1652091425,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122098756?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 18:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122098756","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the saying goes, \"May is poor, June is wonderful, and July is a Many A-share investors have likely heard this stock market proverb.</p><p>In previous years, spring has often been a period of \"spring rally\" in the stock market. After companies release their annual and first-quarter reports, the stock market is likely to experience a temporary correction to digest the valuation bubble during the \"spring rally,\" and this correction is often particularly severe before the end of each six-month period. After six months, the market has entered the semi-annual report disclosure cycle. Off-market active funds that left the market during the adjustment process are likely to take advantage of the expectation of semi-annual report growth to launch a \"seven-year turnaround\" rally. This cycle constitutes the saying \"May is poor, June is disastrous, and July is a turning point\".</p><p>Wall Street also has a similar proverb: \"Sell in May and go away\". This means selling in May and then leaving the stock market. The \"May Curse\" was first published in the Financial Times on May 10, 1935, and has been published ever since.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>It is widely circulated. Although it may seem somewhat mysterious, historical statistics show that the return on holding shares from November to April of the following year is significantly higher than the return on holding shares in the six months from May to October. Recent stock market turmoil suggests that the \"May curse\" may be playing out again.</p><p><b>Stock market crash</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, only six of the world's 40 major stock indices have risen, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The gains in the index and Brazil's BOVESPA index were almost negligible, while the other 34 major stock indices were all in decline. The Russian stock market, embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experienced the biggest drop, falling by more than 30%, making it the world's largest bear market. Following closely behind were the Shenzhen Component Index, which fell 27.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell 22.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefe089190e73255f15200273a5b2223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Performance of major global stock indices this year, source: Investing.com</p><p>Starting in April, US stocks suddenly accelerated their decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 13.26% in April, and the decline continued into May. Last Friday, it hit its lowest closing level since 2020, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline and the longest weekly decline since the fourth quarter of 2012. The S&P 500 fell 8.8% in April, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline and its longest weekly losing streak since the second quarter of 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed slightly better, falling 4.91% in April.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike sword hangs high</b></p><p>In early May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise rate hike by 50 basis points to the 0.75%-1.00% range. This was the first significant rate hike of 50 basis points since 2000, but it was not as aggressive as the market's expectation of 75 basis points in rate hike. At the same time, it was announced that shrinking balance sheet would begin on June 1 at a rate of $47.5 billion per month, and the shrinking balance sheet cap would be gradually raised to $95 billion per month within three months, which also fell short of market expectations for the progress of the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>At the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a 75-basis-point rate hike range was not worth considering, and that a 50-basis-point range for rate hike would be an option in the next few meetings, possibly followed by a 25-basis-point range for rate hike after rate hike. The FOMC estimates the neutral interest rate to be between 2% and 3%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's actions and Powell's remarks dispelled expectations of aggressive market tightening, and U.S. stocks rose sharply that day. However, just one day later, expectations of aggressive rate hike reignited in the market, causing US stocks to plummet.</p><p>Judging from the wild rise and fall of US stocks, market panic about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike remains. According to Investing.com's interest rate watcher, the probability of the Federal Reserve rate hike 75 basis points in June is 82.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b01f7b991072adcb80ed6f24bdfa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Interest Rate Watcher, source: Investing.com</p><p>The primary culprit behind this round of US stock market crash is the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Since shifting to a hawkish stance last year, the Federal Reserve has ended its stimulus measures and conducted two consecutive rate hike, raised its rate hike range from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, and does not rule out a future rate hike of 75 basis points. It has also launched a balance sheet reduction program. Regardless of what the Federal Reserve says, setting aside expectation management, its actual actions are becoming increasingly aggressive.</p><p>This is inseparable from the out-of-control inflation in the United States. This week, the United States will release CPI and PPI data again. If there are signs that inflation has peaked, the Federal Reserve's tightening process may slow down, and the US stock market may have a chance to catch its breath. If inflation remains high, the May curse will play out again.</p><p>In addition, the risk of a recession in the US economy is also increasing. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of this year, and the yield curve had also inverted at one point, which posed a hidden crisis for the stock market.</p><p><b>The May selling strategy may be more effective for A-shares.</b></p><p>Since the US stock market has been in a bull market for more than a decade, although the performance of the summer stock market is often not as good as that of the spring, the continued bull market in the US stock market will cause investors to miss out on some of the gains, resulting in a decline in overall returns. According to statistics, using this strategy, the maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 index will decrease from 52% to 32%, but the annualized return will decrease from 8.78% to 6.98%. In other words, while this strategy reduces overall pullback/retracement, it also lowers absolute returns.</p><p>Compared to US stocks, the selling strategy in May had a more significant effect on A-shares, which tend to fluctuate. According to statistics, using this strategy will reduce the maximum pullback/retracement from 70% to 41%, and increase the annualized return from 3.48% to 8.59%.</p><p><b>Ending</b></p><p>In a bull market, a selling strategy in May may not be ideal. However, given the current crisis, a temporary exit would be the safest option. Perhaps after the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hike in June and July, the negative news for US stocks has been exhausted and a window of opportunity may emerge.</p><p>The next sentence to \"Sell in May and go away\" is \"but remember to come back in September.\" But don't forget to come back in September.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe sell-off curse has emerged in May; how long will US stocks fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-09 18:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the saying goes, \"May is poor, June is wonderful, and July is a Many A-share investors have likely heard this stock market proverb.</p><p>In previous years, spring has often been a period of \"spring rally\" in the stock market. After companies release their annual and first-quarter reports, the stock market is likely to experience a temporary correction to digest the valuation bubble during the \"spring rally,\" and this correction is often particularly severe before the end of each six-month period. After six months, the market has entered the semi-annual report disclosure cycle. Off-market active funds that left the market during the adjustment process are likely to take advantage of the expectation of semi-annual report growth to launch a \"seven-year turnaround\" rally. This cycle constitutes the saying \"May is poor, June is disastrous, and July is a turning point\".</p><p>Wall Street also has a similar proverb: \"Sell in May and go away\". This means selling in May and then leaving the stock market. The \"May Curse\" was first published in the Financial Times on May 10, 1935, and has been published ever since.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>It is widely circulated. Although it may seem somewhat mysterious, historical statistics show that the return on holding shares from November to April of the following year is significantly higher than the return on holding shares in the six months from May to October. Recent stock market turmoil suggests that the \"May curse\" may be playing out again.</p><p><b>Stock market crash</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, only six of the world's 40 major stock indices have risen, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The gains in the index and Brazil's BOVESPA index were almost negligible, while the other 34 major stock indices were all in decline. The Russian stock market, embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experienced the biggest drop, falling by more than 30%, making it the world's largest bear market. Following closely behind were the Shenzhen Component Index, which fell 27.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell 22.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefe089190e73255f15200273a5b2223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Performance of major global stock indices this year, source: Investing.com</p><p>Starting in April, US stocks suddenly accelerated their decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 13.26% in April, and the decline continued into May. Last Friday, it hit its lowest closing level since 2020, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline and the longest weekly decline since the fourth quarter of 2012. The S&P 500 fell 8.8% in April, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline and its longest weekly losing streak since the second quarter of 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed slightly better, falling 4.91% in April.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike sword hangs high</b></p><p>In early May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise rate hike by 50 basis points to the 0.75%-1.00% range. This was the first significant rate hike of 50 basis points since 2000, but it was not as aggressive as the market's expectation of 75 basis points in rate hike. At the same time, it was announced that shrinking balance sheet would begin on June 1 at a rate of $47.5 billion per month, and the shrinking balance sheet cap would be gradually raised to $95 billion per month within three months, which also fell short of market expectations for the progress of the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>At the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a 75-basis-point rate hike range was not worth considering, and that a 50-basis-point range for rate hike would be an option in the next few meetings, possibly followed by a 25-basis-point range for rate hike after rate hike. The FOMC estimates the neutral interest rate to be between 2% and 3%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's actions and Powell's remarks dispelled expectations of aggressive market tightening, and U.S. stocks rose sharply that day. However, just one day later, expectations of aggressive rate hike reignited in the market, causing US stocks to plummet.</p><p>Judging from the wild rise and fall of US stocks, market panic about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike remains. According to Investing.com's interest rate watcher, the probability of the Federal Reserve rate hike 75 basis points in June is 82.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b01f7b991072adcb80ed6f24bdfa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Interest Rate Watcher, source: Investing.com</p><p>The primary culprit behind this round of US stock market crash is the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Since shifting to a hawkish stance last year, the Federal Reserve has ended its stimulus measures and conducted two consecutive rate hike, raised its rate hike range from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, and does not rule out a future rate hike of 75 basis points. It has also launched a balance sheet reduction program. Regardless of what the Federal Reserve says, setting aside expectation management, its actual actions are becoming increasingly aggressive.</p><p>This is inseparable from the out-of-control inflation in the United States. This week, the United States will release CPI and PPI data again. If there are signs that inflation has peaked, the Federal Reserve's tightening process may slow down, and the US stock market may have a chance to catch its breath. If inflation remains high, the May curse will play out again.</p><p>In addition, the risk of a recession in the US economy is also increasing. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of this year, and the yield curve had also inverted at one point, which posed a hidden crisis for the stock market.</p><p><b>The May selling strategy may be more effective for A-shares.</b></p><p>Since the US stock market has been in a bull market for more than a decade, although the performance of the summer stock market is often not as good as that of the spring, the continued bull market in the US stock market will cause investors to miss out on some of the gains, resulting in a decline in overall returns. According to statistics, using this strategy, the maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 index will decrease from 52% to 32%, but the annualized return will decrease from 8.78% to 6.98%. In other words, while this strategy reduces overall pullback/retracement, it also lowers absolute returns.</p><p>Compared to US stocks, the selling strategy in May had a more significant effect on A-shares, which tend to fluctuate. According to statistics, using this strategy will reduce the maximum pullback/retracement from 70% to 41%, and increase the annualized return from 3.48% to 8.59%.</p><p><b>Ending</b></p><p>In a bull market, a selling strategy in May may not be ideal. However, given the current crisis, a temporary exit would be the safest option. Perhaps after the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hike in June and July, the negative news for US stocks has been exhausted and a window of opportunity may emerge.</p><p>The next sentence to \"Sell in May and go away\" is \"but remember to come back in September.\" But don't forget to come back in September.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122098756","content_text":"正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春季躁动”上涨过程中的估值泡沫,而这种回调往往在每个半年结束前显得尤为剧烈。半年结束后，市场进入了半年报披露周期，而此前在调整过程中离场的场外活跃资金，很可能借助半年报增长的预期，发动一波“七翻身”的上涨行情。这样的循环，就构成了“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法。华尔街也同样有一句类似的谚语，叫“Sell in May and go away”。意思是在五月份卖出，然后离开股市。“五月魔咒”最早刊登于1935年5月10日的《金融时报》，此后一直在金融界广为流传。虽然看起来有些玄学，但是根据历史统计，11月至次年4月的持有收益率显著大于在5月至10月这半年的持有收益率。而近期股市的动荡表明“5月魔咒”或将再次上演。股市暴跌今年年初至今，全球40大主要股指中，仅有六个股指处于上涨，其中英国富时100指数和巴西BOVESPA指数涨幅几乎可以忽略不计，其余34大股指均处于下跌状态。跌幅最大的当属深陷俄乌冲突的俄罗斯股市，跌幅达30%以上，熊冠全球。紧随其后的是深证成份指数下跌27.77%和纳斯达克综合指数 下跌22.37%。全球主要股指今年表现，来源：Investing.com从4月份开始，美股突然加速下跌。纳斯达克综合指数 在4月下跌了13.26%，而且跌势延续到了5月，上周五更是创下2020年以来最低收盘水平，周线连续第五周下跌，创2012年第四季以来持续时间最长的周线跌势；美国标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了8.8%，目前已经连续五周下跌，创自2011年第二季以来持续时间最长的周线下跌；道琼斯工业平均指数 4月下跌4.91%表现稍好。美联储加息利剑高悬5月初，美联储刚刚宣布加息50个基点至0.75%-1.00%区间，这是2000年以来首次大幅加息50个基点，但是与市场预期的加息75个基点相比并不算激进；同时宣布6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，并在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元，与市场预期的缩表进度也有差距。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示75个基点的加息幅度并不值得考虑，未来几次会议加息50个基点是选项，可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点。FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。美联储的行动和鲍威尔的发言打消了市场激进紧缩的预期，美股当日大幅上涨。但是仅仅一天之后，市场激进加息预期重燃，美股重挫。从美股暴涨暴跌的走势来看，市场对于美联储激进加息的恐慌犹存。根据Investing.com的利率观测器，美联储在6月加息75基点的概率达到82.9%。美联储利率观测器，来源：Investing.com本轮美股暴跌的首要元凶就是美联储的紧缩政策。自去年转向鹰派以来，美联储已经结束了刺激措施并连续加息两次，加息幅度从25基点上升到了50基点，且不排除未来加息75基点，并启动了缩减资产负债表的计划。不管美联储如何说，抛开预期管理不谈，美联储的实际行动却是越来越激进的。这与美国失控的通胀密不可分，本周美国将再次公布CPI和PPI数据，若出现通胀见顶的信号，美联储的紧缩进程或将放缓，美股或迎来喘息之机；若通胀继续高企，5月魔咒将再次上演。此外，美国经济出现衰退的风险也在加大。美国今年第一季国内生产总值（GDP）意外地萎缩1.4％，此前收益率也一度出现倒挂的情况，这对股市也暗藏危机。5月卖出策略或对A股更加有效由于美股已经持续了十多年的牛市，虽然多数时候夏季股市的表现不如春季，但是美股的持续牛市会令投资者错过一部分涨幅，导致整体收益下降。据统计，使用该策略的话，标普500指数最大回撤会从52%下降至32%，但年化收益率从8.78%下降至6.98%。也就是说，该策略虽然降低了整体回撤，但绝对收益也被拉低了。相对美股，5月卖出策略对偏向震荡的A股效果更加明显。据统计，使用该策略的话，最大回撤会从70 %下降至41%，年化收益率从3.48%提升至8.59%。尾声在牛市当中，5月份卖出的策略可能并不理想。但是在危机四伏的当下，暂时的离场将是最稳妥的选择。或许在6月7月美联储激进加息暂缓之后，美股利空出尽或将迎来机会窗口。Sell in May and go away（5月卖出并离开）的下一句则是but remember to come back in 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