披着牛皮的雷熊 personal page - To The Moon

披着牛皮的雷熊

披着牛皮的雷熊

No personal profile

124Follow

15Followers

0Topic

0Badge

披着牛皮的雷熊

2024-06-13

$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$

披着牛皮的雷熊

2023-04-12

华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退

披着牛皮的雷熊

2021-07-17

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

披着牛皮的雷熊

2021-07-15

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

披着牛皮的雷熊

2021-07-14

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

Invest in Global Markets with Tiger Brokers!

Open App

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4088423044176710","uuid":"4088423044176710","gmtCreate":1625379562994,"gmtModify":1706620741464,"name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","pinyin":"pznpdlxpizheniupideleixiong","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":15,"headSize":124,"tweetSize":104,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":6,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.36%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":"81.00%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":316503475871784,"gmtCreate":1718299096455,"gmtModify":1718299103835,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/CVX 20240621 155.0 PUT SELL 1 | CVX 20240621 160.0 PUT BUY 1\">$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/CVX 20240621 155.0 PUT SELL 1 | CVX 20240621 160.0 PUT BUY 1\">$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$ [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa81d9e07dec6d38ed1681d1a3461afe","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316503475871784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942478603,"gmtCreate":1681294806603,"gmtModify":1681294811888,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942478603","repostId":"2326997706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326997706","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681288550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2326997706?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2023-04-12 16:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326997706","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。</blockquote><p>美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。</p><p>自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、银行信贷环境、每股收益及房地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视。</p><p>Hartnett认为投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售：</p><blockquote>根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。</blockquote><p>1.美国3月ISM制造业指数意外降至46.3，连续五个月萎缩，创2020年5月以来新低。</p><p>美银指出，在过去70年间，<strong>存在12次ISM制造业指数低于45的情况，其中有11次发生了衰退</strong>（1967年除外）。</p><p>更重要的是，ISM非制造业指数为51.2，这一数字是2008年全球金融危机以来第4糟糕的水平。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p></p><p>2. 美国3月ISM制造业新订单指数为44.3，处于收缩区间，美银指出，<strong>当新订单指数&lt;45意味着标普500每股收益（EPS）将开始下降，经济步入衰退</strong>（参见 1991、2001、2008、2020年）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>3. 预计2023年下半年全球每股收益同比下降10-15%。</strong></p><p>根据美国银行全球每股收益增长模型目前的预测，截至今年8月，每股收益将同比下降16%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafb784838c6bb8a25d70ad4e9f5bf62\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>4.2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度正放缓，这可以进一步确认美国经济衰退。</strong></p><p>2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度因经济衰退的预期而变得平和。</p><p>过去4周内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>与2年期国债收益率从此前的倒挂110个基点，变为50个基点，当经济衰退开始时，由于市场预期美联储将开始转向，短期利率会下降。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcca1fa40e968a3e955fdb3f0ef8beb\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"387\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>5.Opec+减产并未提振油价，证实经济衰退。</strong></p><p>从历史上看，油价会在衰退期间上涨并在衰退期间下跌，OPEC+的突袭减产并未使油价飙升<strong>，</strong>这是另一个经济衰退的迹象。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52151a0d320068cc0eb3d0345b949eac\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>6. 疲软的3月ISM制造业指数将使美国劳动力市场更加悲观</strong></p><p><strong>疲软的3月ISM制造业指数，表明美国劳动力市场将在未来几个月走弱；美银指出，</strong>从历史上看，ISM制造业采指数&lt; 45会与非农就业人数下滑及美国经济衰退同时发生。</p><p>美银认为，2023年2月美国非农就业人数强劲增长31.1万，高于24万的市场预期，<strong>2023年最后一份强劲的就业报告。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c7688733d5737a0bf49b7e385ca8a0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>7. 全球房价下跌进一步证明经济衰退。</strong></p><p>随着各国利率飙升，欧洲各国房价在2022年第四季度平均环比下降1.5％，为2015年以来首次下跌；新西兰房价今年一季度同比暴跌13.3%；美国房价连续第六个月环比下跌，较去年6月峰值累跌4.4%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1a0ba6580f29c0ab40be5fbfc8dd4f\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"397\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>8. 美国的信贷紧缩将进一步削弱劳动力市场。</strong></p><p>过去几个月，美国银行一直在收紧对小公司的贷款标准。美国银行借贷在银行业危机发酵的3月下旬出现巨额跌幅，创历史最高两周下降纪录。</p><p>Steno Research表示，越来越多的证据表明，由 SVB 引发的银行业压力确实会演变成一场衰退，但不是一场迅速的流动性驱动的衰退，而是由信贷紧缩引发的缓慢衰退。该机构认为，2023 年第三季度美国经济衰退的可能性大于75%。</p><p><strong>美银指出，信贷紧缩加剧与小企业用工需求高度相关</strong>（美国小企业创造了为美国创造了近2/3的就业机会）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f7c2467671d4257b898504422d19c\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>9. 欧洲银行贷款正在收缩，衰退正在到来。</strong></p><p>欧元区银行贷款连续3个月下降，美银指出，欧元区经济高度依赖银行信贷，约有85%的企业资金通过银行贷款获得，因此银行贷款规模下降意味着衰退逼近。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e792b47604c9c981e9b654e1622d86\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>10.美国劳动力市场的走势意味着衰退开始，疲软的劳动力市场将允许美联储大幅降息。</strong></p><p>美国2月JOLTS职位空缺数近两年里首次跌破1000万，从2023年3月1200万峰值下降了200万以上。</p><p><strong>美银指出，这一情况意味着：美国职位空缺下降—&gt;劳动力市场疲软 —&gt; 美联储降息</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b218a1f134dd1090741c7aa6a3e7137\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>11. 在美联储最后一次加息时，或者美联储加息接近结束时投资者应该抛售美股。</strong></p><p>Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd056ee3a5ec9d538e29f898c67557ae\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>12. 股票的跌幅与衰退</strong></p><p>美国银行的全球股票衍生品研究团队认为，历史上的经济衰退对股票影响确实是负面的：</p><blockquote>当前标普500指数还有更多下行空间，自1929年以来，标普500从峰值到低点的下跌情况中，有三分之二发生在美国经济衰退期间。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。 </blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bf5cd28459b7d644138a3e619be858\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-12 16:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c98541a89b0218de5ba61a7a938cf4d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326997706","content_text":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、银行信贷环境、每股收益及房地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视。Hartnett认为投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售：根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。1.美国3月ISM制造业指数意外降至46.3，连续五个月萎缩，创2020年5月以来新低。美银指出，在过去70年间，存在12次ISM制造业指数低于45的情况，其中有11次发生了衰退（1967年除外）。更重要的是，ISM非制造业指数为51.2，这一数字是2008年全球金融危机以来第4糟糕的水平。2. 美国3月ISM制造业新订单指数为44.3，处于收缩区间，美银指出，当新订单指数<45意味着标普500每股收益（EPS）将开始下降，经济步入衰退（参见 1991、2001、2008、2020年）。3. 预计2023年下半年全球每股收益同比下降10-15%。根据美国银行全球每股收益增长模型目前的预测，截至今年8月，每股收益将同比下降16%。4.2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度正放缓，这可以进一步确认美国经济衰退。2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度因经济衰退的预期而变得平和。过去4周内美国10年期国债收益率与2年期国债收益率从此前的倒挂110个基点，变为50个基点，当经济衰退开始时，由于市场预期美联储将开始转向，短期利率会下降。5.Opec+减产并未提振油价，证实经济衰退。从历史上看，油价会在衰退期间上涨并在衰退期间下跌，OPEC+的突袭减产并未使油价飙升，这是另一个经济衰退的迹象。6. 疲软的3月ISM制造业指数将使美国劳动力市场更加悲观疲软的3月ISM制造业指数，表明美国劳动力市场将在未来几个月走弱；美银指出，从历史上看，ISM制造业采指数< 45会与非农就业人数下滑及美国经济衰退同时发生。美银认为，2023年2月美国非农就业人数强劲增长31.1万，高于24万的市场预期，2023年最后一份强劲的就业报告。7. 全球房价下跌进一步证明经济衰退。随着各国利率飙升，欧洲各国房价在2022年第四季度平均环比下降1.5％，为2015年以来首次下跌；新西兰房价今年一季度同比暴跌13.3%；美国房价连续第六个月环比下跌，较去年6月峰值累跌4.4%。8. 美国的信贷紧缩将进一步削弱劳动力市场。过去几个月，美国银行一直在收紧对小公司的贷款标准。美国银行借贷在银行业危机发酵的3月下旬出现巨额跌幅，创历史最高两周下降纪录。Steno Research表示，越来越多的证据表明，由 SVB 引发的银行业压力确实会演变成一场衰退，但不是一场迅速的流动性驱动的衰退，而是由信贷紧缩引发的缓慢衰退。该机构认为，2023 年第三季度美国经济衰退的可能性大于75%。美银指出，信贷紧缩加剧与小企业用工需求高度相关（美国小企业创造了为美国创造了近2/3的就业机会）。9. 欧洲银行贷款正在收缩，衰退正在到来。欧元区银行贷款连续3个月下降，美银指出，欧元区经济高度依赖银行信贷，约有85%的企业资金通过银行贷款获得，因此银行贷款规模下降意味着衰退逼近。10.美国劳动力市场的走势意味着衰退开始，疲软的劳动力市场将允许美联储大幅降息。美国2月JOLTS职位空缺数近两年里首次跌破1000万，从2023年3月1200万峰值下降了200万以上。美银指出，这一情况意味着：美国职位空缺下降—>劳动力市场疲软 —> 美联储降息11. 在美联储最后一次加息时，或者美联储加息接近结束时投资者应该抛售美股。Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。12. 股票的跌幅与衰退美国银行的全球股票衍生品研究团队认为，历史上的经济衰退对股票影响确实是负面的：当前标普500指数还有更多下行空间，自1929年以来，标普500从峰值到低点的下跌情况中，有三分之二发生在美国经济衰退期间。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179979880,"gmtCreate":1626483945540,"gmtModify":1703760889757,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179979880","repostId":"2152668878","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147937725,"gmtCreate":1626326287167,"gmtModify":1703757947743,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147937725","repostId":"1169072938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145276774,"gmtCreate":1626227819598,"gmtModify":1703755906621,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145276774","repostId":"1165039031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179979880,"gmtCreate":1626483945540,"gmtModify":1703760889757,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179979880","repostId":"2152668878","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145276774,"gmtCreate":1626227819598,"gmtModify":1703755906621,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145276774","repostId":"1165039031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147937725,"gmtCreate":1626326287167,"gmtModify":1703757947743,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147937725","repostId":"1169072938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316503475871784,"gmtCreate":1718299096455,"gmtModify":1718299103835,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/CVX 20240621 155.0 PUT SELL 1 | CVX 20240621 160.0 PUT BUY 1\">$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/CVX 20240621 155.0 PUT SELL 1 | CVX 20240621 160.0 PUT BUY 1\">$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$ [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa81d9e07dec6d38ed1681d1a3461afe","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316503475871784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942478603,"gmtCreate":1681294806603,"gmtModify":1681294811888,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorIdStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942478603","repostId":"2326997706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326997706","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681288550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2326997706?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2023-04-12 16:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326997706","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。</blockquote><p>美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。</p><p>自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、银行信贷环境、每股收益及房地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视。</p><p>Hartnett认为投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售：</p><blockquote>根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。</blockquote><p>1.美国3月ISM制造业指数意外降至46.3，连续五个月萎缩，创2020年5月以来新低。</p><p>美银指出，在过去70年间，<strong>存在12次ISM制造业指数低于45的情况，其中有11次发生了衰退</strong>（1967年除外）。</p><p>更重要的是，ISM非制造业指数为51.2，这一数字是2008年全球金融危机以来第4糟糕的水平。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p></p><p>2. 美国3月ISM制造业新订单指数为44.3，处于收缩区间，美银指出，<strong>当新订单指数&lt;45意味着标普500每股收益（EPS）将开始下降，经济步入衰退</strong>（参见 1991、2001、2008、2020年）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>3. 预计2023年下半年全球每股收益同比下降10-15%。</strong></p><p>根据美国银行全球每股收益增长模型目前的预测，截至今年8月，每股收益将同比下降16%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafb784838c6bb8a25d70ad4e9f5bf62\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>4.2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度正放缓，这可以进一步确认美国经济衰退。</strong></p><p>2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度因经济衰退的预期而变得平和。</p><p>过去4周内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>与2年期国债收益率从此前的倒挂110个基点，变为50个基点，当经济衰退开始时，由于市场预期美联储将开始转向，短期利率会下降。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcca1fa40e968a3e955fdb3f0ef8beb\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"387\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>5.Opec+减产并未提振油价，证实经济衰退。</strong></p><p>从历史上看，油价会在衰退期间上涨并在衰退期间下跌，OPEC+的突袭减产并未使油价飙升<strong>，</strong>这是另一个经济衰退的迹象。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52151a0d320068cc0eb3d0345b949eac\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>6. 疲软的3月ISM制造业指数将使美国劳动力市场更加悲观</strong></p><p><strong>疲软的3月ISM制造业指数，表明美国劳动力市场将在未来几个月走弱；美银指出，</strong>从历史上看，ISM制造业采指数&lt; 45会与非农就业人数下滑及美国经济衰退同时发生。</p><p>美银认为，2023年2月美国非农就业人数强劲增长31.1万，高于24万的市场预期，<strong>2023年最后一份强劲的就业报告。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c7688733d5737a0bf49b7e385ca8a0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>7. 全球房价下跌进一步证明经济衰退。</strong></p><p>随着各国利率飙升，欧洲各国房价在2022年第四季度平均环比下降1.5％，为2015年以来首次下跌；新西兰房价今年一季度同比暴跌13.3%；美国房价连续第六个月环比下跌，较去年6月峰值累跌4.4%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1a0ba6580f29c0ab40be5fbfc8dd4f\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"397\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>8. 美国的信贷紧缩将进一步削弱劳动力市场。</strong></p><p>过去几个月，美国银行一直在收紧对小公司的贷款标准。美国银行借贷在银行业危机发酵的3月下旬出现巨额跌幅，创历史最高两周下降纪录。</p><p>Steno Research表示，越来越多的证据表明，由 SVB 引发的银行业压力确实会演变成一场衰退，但不是一场迅速的流动性驱动的衰退，而是由信贷紧缩引发的缓慢衰退。该机构认为，2023 年第三季度美国经济衰退的可能性大于75%。</p><p><strong>美银指出，信贷紧缩加剧与小企业用工需求高度相关</strong>（美国小企业创造了为美国创造了近2/3的就业机会）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f7c2467671d4257b898504422d19c\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>9. 欧洲银行贷款正在收缩，衰退正在到来。</strong></p><p>欧元区银行贷款连续3个月下降，美银指出，欧元区经济高度依赖银行信贷，约有85%的企业资金通过银行贷款获得，因此银行贷款规模下降意味着衰退逼近。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e792b47604c9c981e9b654e1622d86\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>10.美国劳动力市场的走势意味着衰退开始，疲软的劳动力市场将允许美联储大幅降息。</strong></p><p>美国2月JOLTS职位空缺数近两年里首次跌破1000万，从2023年3月1200万峰值下降了200万以上。</p><p><strong>美银指出，这一情况意味着：美国职位空缺下降—&gt;劳动力市场疲软 —&gt; 美联储降息</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b218a1f134dd1090741c7aa6a3e7137\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>11. 在美联储最后一次加息时，或者美联储加息接近结束时投资者应该抛售美股。</strong></p><p>Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd056ee3a5ec9d538e29f898c67557ae\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p></p><p><strong>12. 股票的跌幅与衰退</strong></p><p>美国银行的全球股票衍生品研究团队认为，历史上的经济衰退对股票影响确实是负面的：</p><blockquote>当前标普500指数还有更多下行空间，自1929年以来，标普500从峰值到低点的下跌情况中，有三分之二发生在美国经济衰退期间。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。 </blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bf5cd28459b7d644138a3e619be858\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最准分析师12张重磅图表：所有迹象都指向经济衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-12 16:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c98541a89b0218de5ba61a7a938cf4d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326997706","content_text":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、银行信贷环境、每股收益及房地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视。Hartnett认为投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售：根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。1.美国3月ISM制造业指数意外降至46.3，连续五个月萎缩，创2020年5月以来新低。美银指出，在过去70年间，存在12次ISM制造业指数低于45的情况，其中有11次发生了衰退（1967年除外）。更重要的是，ISM非制造业指数为51.2，这一数字是2008年全球金融危机以来第4糟糕的水平。2. 美国3月ISM制造业新订单指数为44.3，处于收缩区间，美银指出，当新订单指数<45意味着标普500每股收益（EPS）将开始下降，经济步入衰退（参见 1991、2001、2008、2020年）。3. 预计2023年下半年全球每股收益同比下降10-15%。根据美国银行全球每股收益增长模型目前的预测，截至今年8月，每股收益将同比下降16%。4.2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度正放缓，这可以进一步确认美国经济衰退。2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度因经济衰退的预期而变得平和。过去4周内美国10年期国债收益率与2年期国债收益率从此前的倒挂110个基点，变为50个基点，当经济衰退开始时，由于市场预期美联储将开始转向，短期利率会下降。5.Opec+减产并未提振油价，证实经济衰退。从历史上看，油价会在衰退期间上涨并在衰退期间下跌，OPEC+的突袭减产并未使油价飙升，这是另一个经济衰退的迹象。6. 疲软的3月ISM制造业指数将使美国劳动力市场更加悲观疲软的3月ISM制造业指数，表明美国劳动力市场将在未来几个月走弱；美银指出，从历史上看，ISM制造业采指数< 45会与非农就业人数下滑及美国经济衰退同时发生。美银认为，2023年2月美国非农就业人数强劲增长31.1万，高于24万的市场预期，2023年最后一份强劲的就业报告。7. 全球房价下跌进一步证明经济衰退。随着各国利率飙升，欧洲各国房价在2022年第四季度平均环比下降1.5％，为2015年以来首次下跌；新西兰房价今年一季度同比暴跌13.3%；美国房价连续第六个月环比下跌，较去年6月峰值累跌4.4%。8. 美国的信贷紧缩将进一步削弱劳动力市场。过去几个月，美国银行一直在收紧对小公司的贷款标准。美国银行借贷在银行业危机发酵的3月下旬出现巨额跌幅，创历史最高两周下降纪录。Steno Research表示，越来越多的证据表明，由 SVB 引发的银行业压力确实会演变成一场衰退，但不是一场迅速的流动性驱动的衰退，而是由信贷紧缩引发的缓慢衰退。该机构认为，2023 年第三季度美国经济衰退的可能性大于75%。美银指出，信贷紧缩加剧与小企业用工需求高度相关（美国小企业创造了为美国创造了近2/3的就业机会）。9. 欧洲银行贷款正在收缩，衰退正在到来。欧元区银行贷款连续3个月下降，美银指出，欧元区经济高度依赖银行信贷，约有85%的企业资金通过银行贷款获得，因此银行贷款规模下降意味着衰退逼近。10.美国劳动力市场的走势意味着衰退开始，疲软的劳动力市场将允许美联储大幅降息。美国2月JOLTS职位空缺数近两年里首次跌破1000万，从2023年3月1200万峰值下降了200万以上。美银指出，这一情况意味着：美国职位空缺下降—>劳动力市场疲软 —> 美联储降息11. 在美联储最后一次加息时，或者美联储加息接近结束时投资者应该抛售美股。Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。12. 股票的跌幅与衰退美国银行的全球股票衍生品研究团队认为，历史上的经济衰退对股票影响确实是负面的：当前标普500指数还有更多下行空间，自1929年以来，标普500从峰值到低点的下跌情况中，有三分之二发生在美国经济衰退期间。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}