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07-26

Great article, would you like to share it?

@Barcode:$Nike(NKE)$ $American Airlines(AAL)$ $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ $BHP Billiton(BHP)$ $Las Vegas Sands(LVS)$ ‼️‼️🚨🚨🚨 Confirmed: The Seasonal Weakness Showdown! 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️ Tiger traders, it’s official! The seasonal weakness has hit hard, and these stocks have taken a dive, hitting new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today! 🚨 Nike $NKE 👟 - Just did it… hit a low! American Airlines $AAL ✈️ - Grounded! Celsius $CELH 🥤 - Cooling off! Lululemon $LULU 🧘‍♀️ - Bending but not breaking! BHP $BHP ⛏️ - Mining for better days! Las Vegas Sands $LVS 🎲 - Rolled a low number! Lamb Weston $LW 🍟 -

07-24

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Nice buying moment again👍

07-20

Great article, would you like to share it?

@JC888:ASML & NVDA Tumbled ! Thanks Biden & Trump ?

07-12

No worries

UBS Cuts Tesla to Sell on Concern Over AI-Driven Share Rally; Raises Target Price to $197 From $147

07-12

Rollercoaster $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ !! What will you do next week heading to earning release?

07-12

$Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB)$ Is time to get high again!

07-05

Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.

07-02

$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$ Afraid we haven't seen the bottom yet.

05-04

#sell everyone! So that I can #buy at discount 😬

04-28

Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑

04-24

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Amazing short term recovery but be aware long term it is still down

04-23

Apple always a buy! Picked up some shares as prices are low 😉

04-23

Sea will go up on good performance and extra lift from TikTok shuts shop... I see green

04-16

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04-10

Will buy apple @ $150 or lower

04-10

Looking through pink glasses and see flowers 🌺 all good signs for upwards trend!

04-07

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Crack before rises again

02-25

$Stryker(SYK)$ Great result!

2023-06-11

All the layoffs Benefits coming in...

@orsiri:Tech Stocks Trip, But Opportunity Awaits!

2023-06-11

It's 2023 and not 2007?

@MaverickWealthBuilder:Why 2023 is different from 2007?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331561208098864","repostId":"331498765226080","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331498765226080,"gmtCreate":1721940262530,"gmtModify":1721945973489,"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorIdStr":"4171900329979952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NKE\">$Nike(NKE)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LULU\">$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP\">$BHP Billiton(BHP)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LVS\">$Las Vegas Sands(LVS)$</a>&nbsp; ‼️‼️🚨🚨🚨 Confirmed: The Seasonal Weakness Showdown! 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️ Tiger traders, it’s official! The seasonal weakness has hit hard, and these stocks have taken a dive, hitting new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today! 🚨 Nike $NKE 👟 - Just did it… hit a low! American Airlines $AAL ✈️ - Grounded! Celsius $CELH 🥤 - Cooling off! Lululemon $LULU 🧘‍♀️ - Bending but not breaking! BHP $BHP ⛏️ - Mining for better days! Las Vegas Sands $LVS 🎲 - Rolled a low number! Lamb Weston $LW 🍟 -","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NKE\">$Nike(NKE)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LULU\">$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP\">$BHP Billiton(BHP)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LVS\">$Las Vegas Sands(LVS)$</a>&nbsp; ‼️‼️🚨🚨🚨 Confirmed: The Seasonal Weakness Showdown! 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️ Tiger traders, it’s official! The seasonal weakness has hit hard, and these stocks have taken a dive, hitting new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today! 🚨 Nike $NKE 👟 - Just did it… hit a low! American Airlines $AAL ✈️ - Grounded! Celsius $CELH 🥤 - Cooling off! Lululemon $LULU 🧘‍♀️ - Bending but not breaking! BHP $BHP ⛏️ - Mining for better days! Las Vegas Sands $LVS 🎲 - Rolled a low number! Lamb Weston $LW 🍟 -","text":"$Nike(NKE)$ $American Airlines(AAL)$ $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ $BHP Billiton(BHP)$ $Las Vegas Sands(LVS)$ ‼️‼️🚨🚨🚨 Confirmed: The Seasonal Weakness Showdown! 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️ Tiger traders, it’s official! The seasonal weakness has hit hard, and these stocks have taken a dive, hitting new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today! 🚨 Nike $NKE 👟 - Just did it… hit a low! American Airlines $AAL ✈️ - Grounded! Celsius $CELH 🥤 - Cooling off! Lululemon $LULU 🧘‍♀️ - Bending but not breaking! BHP $BHP ⛏️ - Mining for better days! Las Vegas Sands $LVS 🎲 - Rolled a low number! Lamb Weston $LW 🍟 -","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9355faaef8a37b214cc12fa805a1e20","width":"1792","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70d50c337c787dc3a42e90abb1f46b50","width":"1641","height":"915"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ce2c1421be0e0db1eaf52443b1fb5ae9","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331498765226080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330936271266000,"gmtCreate":1721825126346,"gmtModify":1721825129904,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Nice buying moment again👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Nice buying moment again👍","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Nice buying moment again👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330936271266000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329441524068600,"gmtCreate":1721435844648,"gmtModify":1721435854735,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329441524068600","repostId":"329279164596336","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":329279164596336,"gmtCreate":1721396340166,"gmtModify":1721396679412,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"ASML & NVDA Tumbled ! Thanks Biden & Trump ?","htmlText":"There is a saying, “Never mix business with pleasure”. Could a similar saying of “Never mix business with politics” be enforced? This was what has transpired in the pat 2 days as dusty politicians - Biden &amp; Trump alike decided to turn up a notch in their political rhetorics. First, it was the Biden administration saying that it may ratchet up restrictions on companies working with China, including ASML Holding NV and of course Nvidia. (see above) There are already restrictions on the equipment that can be sold into China, but limiting how workers can maintain equipment could curb demand even further. To be seen on equal footing, the returning buffoon told Bloomberg Businessweek that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense as it does not give US anything in return. (see above) Making i","listText":"There is a saying, “Never mix business with pleasure”. Could a similar saying of “Never mix business with politics” be enforced? This was what has transpired in the pat 2 days as dusty politicians - Biden &amp; Trump alike decided to turn up a notch in their political rhetorics. First, it was the Biden administration saying that it may ratchet up restrictions on companies working with China, including ASML Holding NV and of course Nvidia. (see above) There are already restrictions on the equipment that can be sold into China, but limiting how workers can maintain equipment could curb demand even further. To be seen on equal footing, the returning buffoon told Bloomberg Businessweek that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense as it does not give US anything in return. (see above) Making i","text":"There is a saying, “Never mix business with pleasure”. Could a similar saying of “Never mix business with politics” be enforced? This was what has transpired in the pat 2 days as dusty politicians - Biden & Trump alike decided to turn up a notch in their political rhetorics. First, it was the Biden administration saying that it may ratchet up restrictions on companies working with China, including ASML Holding NV and of course Nvidia. (see above) There are already restrictions on the equipment that can be sold into China, but limiting how workers can maintain equipment could curb demand even further. To be seen on equal footing, the returning buffoon told Bloomberg Businessweek that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense as it does not give US anything in return. (see above) Making i","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329279164596336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326669667307840,"gmtCreate":1720777422630,"gmtModify":1720777447157,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No worries&nbsp;","listText":"No worries&nbsp;","text":"No worries","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326669667307840","repostId":"1195381387","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195381387","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1720772009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195381387?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-12 16:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UBS Cuts Tesla to Sell on Concern Over AI-Driven Share Rally; Raises Target Price to $197 From $147","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195381387","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"1) TSLA price disconnecting from fundamentals has occurred in the past and can persist for a while. 2) 2Q24 results may be above expectations, causing positive revisions to 25/26F helping to sustain momentum. 3) Investor tepidness to be negative into “robo-taxi” day, and/or there is a true upside surprise at the event. In our view, we believe TSLA is making good technological progress, but the challenge is hard and may face operational challenges . More meaningful than robo-taxi is showing the n","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla Inc.’s stock is downgraded by UBS Group, on concerns that the US electric carmaker’s shares have risen “too much, too soon” on optimism over its artificial intelligence plans. </p></li></ul><p><strong>Increasingly difficult to justify valuation</strong></p><p>UBS downgrades TSLA from Neutral to Sell. TSLA is more than just an auto company, and there are some positive developments (e.g. Energy, FSD) that add additional support. This is increasingly important as expectations for the core Auto business deteriorate. TSLA has always had a premium attached to it for other, future, growth initiatives. Properly valuing that optionality is difficult. This premium has widened of late, we believe, on AI enthusiasm. After going through the different businesses we can more substantially value, at current levels, we are still left with a &gt;$500bn “stub” for that future growth. Even if we give that “stub” a 5-year time horizon, that implies a 5-year future value of $1T. And this is just to justify current levels; one would need to see an even larger opportunity to justify a Buy rating. While TSLA is investing heavily in AI and the tech is making progress, investment is costly, pace of improvement may slow and the payoff is long dated. If market enthusiasm for AI diminishes, this may impact TSLA&#39;s multiple. Given the lack of visibility and the risk that growth opportunities materialize on a longer time horizon (or not at all), with the stock at 86x NTM P/E, downgrade to Sell.</p><p><strong>When ex-auto contribution to price nears the highs, good opportunity to sell</strong></p><p>Our valuation attribution analysis shows that the market has (fairly consistently) valued TSLA’s core auto business between $60-$90/share. The “other attribution” has been volatile but past 2 year average is ~$140/share. With the recent rally, it’s now nearly ~$175/share. Fig. 3 shows when other becomes larger contributor to price, stock starts to trend down. O ur SOTP view values auto at ~$57, Energy, which has shown recent strong growth (and higher margin) is worth ~$18. We estimate FSD/robo-taxi could be ~$18 (see UBS Evidence Lab FSD survey inside), but that&#39;s only ~$93 of the more easily identifiable value, implying a premium/future option value that is ~61% of today’s price.</p><p><strong>Where could we be wrong?</strong> 1) TSLA price disconnecting from fundamentals has occurred in the past and can persist for a while. 2) 2Q24 results may be above expectations, causing positive revisions to 25/26F helping to sustain momentum. 3) Investor tepidness to be negative into “robo-taxi” day, and/or there is a true upside surprise at the event. In our view, we believe TSLA is making good technological progress, but the challenge is hard and may face operational challenges (regulatory, etc.). More meaningful than robo-taxi is showing the new vehicle, as that could change 25/26F numbers. But consensus already considers higher units, and we believe the vehicle could pressure auto margins.</p><p><strong>Valuation: PT to $ 197 from $147 based on 55x P/E (45x prior)</strong></p><p>55x is at the high end of the past 2-year range and is supported by our SOTP analysis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/45954af4dbf44b11676fefa1e474d3bb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"226\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1093952194\">Pivotal Questions</h3><p><strong>Q: Can TSLA get to &gt;5mm v ehicle deliveries by 2030?</strong></p><p>No. We currently forecast 2030 units at ~3.9mm, 19% below consensus. More mid-term, we are also, on average, ~11% below consensus on 2025-27 deliveries. Our view is informed by more tepid demand for EVs (and demand saturation for the current model lineup) in the US and more competitive markets in Europe and especially China. New and refreshed models are needed for higher levels of demand, but this is already considered in our forecast. Further, in the mid-term (~2027), achieving &gt;3mm units for delivery when max capacity may be ~3mm could be challenging.</p><p><strong>Q: Can Energy grow at a ~30% CAGR through 2030?</strong></p><p>Potentially. TSLA Energy has grown impressively of late, and importantly, this is currently a high margin business for the company. However, we caution that energy storage deployments can be lumpy. Looking ahead, the opportunity for stationary storage is large, so a ~30% CAGR through 2030 to get to ~$42bn in 2030 revenue is possible. However, more capacity investment would be needed, the timing of which isn&#39;t clear, and the law of large numbers may come into play as we move through the decade. We model a ~22% CAGR through 2030E.</p><p><strong>UBS VIEW</strong></p><p>We are Sell rated on TSLA. TSLA is more than just an auto company, and there are some positive developments in other areas such as Energy and FSD. Further, TSLA has always traded with a premium attached to it for other, future growth initiatives. Properly valuing that optionality is difficult. However, at current levels, we believe that unidentifiable premium is too significant. Given the lack of visibility and the risk that these growth opportunities materialize on a longer time horizon (or don’t materialize at all), we rate the stock Sell.</p><p><strong>EVIDENCE</strong></p><p>We created a proprietary valuation attribution analysis to better understand TSLA valuation. We took a detailed look at the addressable market for the upcoming lower-cost vehicle. We utilize the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey to support our view on demographics in the US and their willingness/ability to use an EV. We also looked at various UBS Evidence Lab datasets on Tesla&#39;s perception in China. We also utilized a UBS Evidence Lab survey to help us better understand the FSD opportunity.</p><p><strong>WHAT´S PRICED IN?</strong></p><p>Tesla has many factors driving its price action, but at current levels and all else equal, we believe 2030 auto units deliveries would need to be ~6.9mm units vs. UBS forecast of ~3.9mm and consensus of ~4.8mm.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07f529112d054be2170f604f3a3e20e7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p><strong>Company Description</strong></p><p>Tesla, Inc. manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and related services. The company&#39;s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. T he company is also working on automated driving technology and Optimus, a robotic humanoid.</p><h2 id=\"id_3819601884\">More than an auto company, but how much more?</h2><p>TSLA is often labeled “not an auto company” or “more than an auto company”. We are more inclined to agree with the latter considering the vast majority of today’s revenue/profits are related to the manufacturing and selling of vehicles. This makes valuing TSLA stock challenging at times. We are not here to say that TSLA should be valued as an auto company as there are other initiatives. Some of these initiatives may have payoffs way out in the future. TSLA stock price been sensitive to future businesses, opportunities and TAMs (i.e. the potential of what TSLA could become). Some premium for this potential is fair, but we do believe investors should be cognizant of how much the auto business and other more readily valuable businesses contributes to the stock price to help ground the valuation and select entry and exit points.</p><h2 id=\"id_3099312274\">UBS&#39; TSLA valuation attribution analysis</h2><p>Below, we took a look at the historical contribution of TSLA’s automotive business to TSLA’s total market value. We specifically focus on auto only for this analysis as for a large period of time, this has been, and remains, the company&#39;s primary driver. A uto also has the richest data for historical consensus expectations. For this analysis, we took consensus 2030 auto delivery expectations (at that time) and consistently applied a $40k ASP, a normalized Auto EBIT margin of 15% and 20x forward P/E multiple. Yes, some will quibble with our assumptions, particularly the multiple considering legacy OEMs trade at single-digit P/Es and Toyota, as a best in class OEM, historically may trade closer to~10x. However, we’d a) argue that TSLA&#39;s auto business still has more growth potential ahead vs. a more mature Toyota and b) we believe we are being somewhat generous to auto for this analysis. We then discount that nominal auto value at the cost of equity (at that time) to that period. We then compare the implied auto contribution to the total market capitalization of TSLA at that time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c1da45256b06a41729fadf0b64bf3d9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p>A few things from this analysis surprised us:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market value attributable to auto was more consistent than we expected. It has generally been between $200-$300bn since 2021 or ~$60-$90 in per share terms. This surprised us because consensus 2030 deliveries used to be &gt;7mm and now stand &gt;30% lower at ~4.8mm units. Mitigating the impact of this negative revision is the discounting (i.e. we are now closer to 2030). Bears may argue even current 2030 expectations are too high, which may be warranted (UBS is at ~3.9mm). However, we felt using consensus expectations to figure out market expectations was more appropriate.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/824940f43a694f9bbfbd3094c34acda4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"406\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>How much of TSLA&#39;s valuation is attributable to “other” initiatives? Over the past 4 years, on average only ~30% of TSLA’s stock price is attributable to core auto, again using our assumptions from above (less if one were to assume a lower margin or multiple). Over the past two years, this has been closer to ~36%. At TSLA’s current price, only 28% of TSLA’s current value is attributable to core auto, an 8pp swing since the end of June and at the lows over the past 2 years.</p></li></ul><p>While valuation disconnections from more tangible fundamentals have occurred in TSLA’s history, and it can persist for extended periods of times, we believe that when these hopes get elevated, it is not a good time to initiate or add to positions. Rather, it’s a time to sell. Over the past two years, when the percent of the stock price that our analysis shows is attributable to auto dips below the 30% average, the stock has entered downward trend channels (see 6/22 and 6/23).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91e873407ad615e28f97130ffdfe1f69\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3206630880\">What about TSLA’s other endeavors?</h2><p>With our attribution analysis showing less than 30% of the current stock price is attributable to core auto, we asked ourselves, did something change? While the recent 2Q24 auto deliveries of ~444k was better than expectations, it was still down -5% y/y and was likely supported by some promotional activity. Further, in our view, quarterly deliveries coming in 20-25k (~5%) better doesn’t warrant a 15% rally since the delivery print (and a ~22% rally over the past 10 days). So, is there reason to be more optimistic on some of TSLA’s other initiatives?</p><h3 id=\"id_2406147011\">Tesla Energy</h3><p>One area that the market may have gotten more excited about, that also came out with the deliveries release, is Tesla Energy, which reported 9.4 GWh of energy storage product deployment in the quarter (+157% y/y and +132% q/q). At their annual meeting, Elon Musk also indicated the company was tracking towards 200-300% y/y growth in energy storage. This is important since Energy is currently higher gross margin than Auto (Energy was 24.6% in 1Q24), so this could help stem negative revisions from the pricing/promotion actions taken to stimulate auto demand. While we are more positive on Energy and raise our Energy sales forecasts, we caution that Energy sales tend to be lumpy.</p><p>Tesla currently has their Megafactory in Lathrop, California, which has an annual capacity to build 10,000 Megapacks or ~40 GWh of storage. During 1Q24 earnings, TSLA announced that they had commissioned their second general assembly line as they look to ramp Lathrop to full capacity. TSLA is also opening their Megafactory in Shanghai which will add an additional 40 GWh of energy storage capacity. We expect this facility to be operational in 1H25. We now forecast TSLA will deploy ~27 GWh of storage this year, and ramp to ~37 GWh next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2235a9dce09f3858e83800a2c8b54fef\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1152913170\">AI</h3><p>Tesla is investing heavily in AI. Earlier this year, Musk announced that TSLA had installed and commissioned 35k Nvidia H100 GPUs and are aiming for 85k GPUs by the end of the year. Musk has also talked about spending ~$10bn on combined training and inference AI this year, the latter being primarily in the car. Tesla is also is developing their own silicon for their Dojo supercomputer, though in January 2024, Musk stated Dojo was “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it&#39;s not something that is a high probability.&#34;</p><p>The fruits of AI investment at Tesla would be related to Full Self Driving (FSD), which is their current advanced driving assistant, their robo-taxi initiative (planned robo-taxi day, now reportedly postponed to October), and Optimus, their humanoid robot initiative.</p><p>We believe TSLA stock price has gotten caught up in the AI trade/phenomenon. While we don’t doubt Tesla is making very good progress on such initiatives, aside from FSD (we were impressed by recent improvement), the other initiatives are purely R&amp;D. Large TAMs for sure, and we have more confidence in Tesla being able to manifest the power of AI in the physical world than we do for other companies. But, these are complex issues, that will take a long time to play out and success is not a certainty. As AI enthusiasm fades, we believe this can impact TSLA&#39;s multiple.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5d81786f308252683379c4c0c26fe48\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_3277089746\">Full Self Driving (FSD)</h3><p>Of large debate is Tesla’s ability to charge, on a monthly recurring basis, for their advanced driver assistance system: FSD (supervised). Earlier this year, Tesla started rolling out the new version of FSD based on an end-to-end AI learning system. Tesla offered a 1-month free trial to all US Tesla vehicles with the proper hardware. They then lowered the monthly subscription cost to $99/month from $199/month.</p><p>We conducted a survey on 306 Tesla owners, ran over June 10-28th, to gauge customer reception and perception to FSD. Key points:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A caveat, we believe our survey skews high to consumers that currently have (pay for) FSD vs. the reality of the marketplace. T his in part may be driven by ~53% of our respondents indicated that a Model S/X was their primary Tesla vs. S/X making up only ~6% of Tesla&#39;s 2023 US sales. S till, we are able to gather some insights from looking only at 3/Y owners and, in particular, respondents who don&#39;t currently own/subscribe to FSD to see what future &#34;take rates&#34; might be (though admittedly this is a smaller sample size).</p></li><li><p>Overall, we would say consumers are satisfied with FSD functionality (62% very satisfied) and feel safe using it (64% completely safe).</p></li><li><p>Of those that are not currently paying for FSD (so either free trial is over or still on free trial) 17% indicated they were likely to pay for FSD over the next 6 months, while 33% said somewhat likely.</p></li><li><p>However, our respondents did over-index to Model S/X vs. 3/Y when in reality, 3/Y is a significantly larger pool (and given the price point of the vehicle, points to a different willingness to pay, in our view). <strong>So, when we look only at respondents who said their main vehicle was a 3 or Y, very likely to pay for FSD over next 6 months dropped to 9% and Net Likely vs. Unlikely is only +3% (Figure 15).</strong></p></li><li><p>At the current $99/month level, 43% of Tesla customers surveyed (that indicated they are likely to continue to pay or will be likely to pay for FSD) indicated they would be willing to pay around this price ($76-$100/month). This dropped to 35% when only looking at Model 3/Y users. To us, this suggests that significantly higher adoption levels may need further price reductions.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5d55bb0563a4f66a132b16a8deab211\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af47480c103d4f6e2b0af57737985d8d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/325c4b93ce1fca3b093525dc33bb296b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p>The willingness (and ability) to pay for FSD matters to us as we think about future, low cost Tesla models. These new lower cost models will have a less expensive monthly vehicle payment. But, that also means that adding an additional $99/month to that payment for FSD will be a significant increase.</p><p>In China, while Tesla is making a push to be able to make FSD available, we have doubts over Tesla&#39;s ability to charge for FSD given many competitors already offer an autonomous solution without charging a monthly fee (or some even an upfront fee). Rather, we view FSD in China as almost a necessity to remain competitive with domestic Chinese offerings that have similar functionality.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b17104146f0628867d84b93db9210fa2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"163\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1267251312\">Robo-taxi</h3><p>We believe robo-taxis are a difficult technological endeavor and the business model also may face regulatory hurdles as well as questions around consumer adoption. Thus, we believe a meaningful r obo-taxi operation in the US is further out (not this decade). Tesla reportedly/recently pushed the planned 8/8 robo-taxi day to October. A subtle reminder that Tesla has had difficulty meeting timelines.</p><p>On the technology side, TSLA&#39;s move to an end-to-end (GenAI) approach has allowed for meaningful improvement in the FSD product. But the FSD product is a very good advanced driving assistant system (L2+). To move to a robo-taxi solution, the march of 9s must continue to be able to operate in all conditions within the operational design domain (ODD). We believe the end-to-end approach, on it&#39;s own, will eventually start to show slowing improvement and diminishing returns. Further, the cost for this improvement can be high. More, unique data is needed to continue the system improvement. TSLA does have access to a lot of data from their fleet, and they employ simulation. But, we believe that, similar to what is seen in GenAI with large language models (LLMs), progress can slow, and each additional improvement to the model can become increasingly more expensive to take (obtaining that new data to get the improvement and the compute to process it).</p><p>The other challenge with an end-to-end approach could be a regulatory one. There will inevitably be accidents and with an end-to-end approach without guard rails, it is difficult to understand why the system made a decision it did, thus difficult to correct for the problem (as rare as the specific event might be). We recently held an expert call on Gen AI for autonomous driving that highlighted the issue regulators may have with the lack of traceability and transparency that comes with an end-to-end approach that TSLA currently utilizes. Further, in certain geographies,TSLA still needs to test their robo-taxi with a driver before being permitted to test autonomously and then to offer driverless rides (see Waymo and Cruise).</p><h3 id=\"id_2212439252\">Optimus</h3><p>While we are excited about the progress Tesla is making on their humanoid robot, we believe this opportunity is much further out. At their annual shareholder meeting, Elon Musk helped frame the long-term opportunity. H e mentioned there could be, one day, 10bn humanoid robots, so if TSLA gets 10% share, that is 100mm Optimus units a year, and if sold for $20k, suggests a $2T revenue opportunity, $1T profit opportunity and a $20T market value opportunity (20x). However, we have difficulty underwriting significant (or specific) value to this opportunity today given the many uncertain variables, the probability of success and the unknown time frame.</p><h2 id=\"id_1024744650\">Sum-of-the-parts</h2><p>Below we take a look at a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) for TSLA to support our P/E based valuation. We also show an upside and downside scenario.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Auto.</strong> We forecast 2030 units at 3.9mm units and ~$146bn in auto revenue. Applying a 15% “normalized” EBIT margin, applying a 20x P/E multiple and discounting that back to a year from now (mid-2025E) at ~13% cost of equity gives us $57/share value. 20x is above traditional OEMs in the mid-single-digits P/E and Toyota at ~10x but warranted given Tesla would still have more room for growth and the &#34;normalized&#34; Auto EBIT margins for TSLA (especially relative to legacy OEMs) could be higher.</p></li><li><p><strong>Energy.</strong> We forecast 113 GWh storage deployment and ~$28bn in Energy revenue (22% 2024-2030E CAGR). Applying a 20% “normalized” EBIT margin, applying a near-market multiple of 25x P/E multiple and discounting that back to a year from now (mid-2025E) gives us $18/share value.</p></li><li><p><strong>FSD.</strong> We forecast ~$1.5bn in 2030 revenue, which equates to ~$0.33 in EPS, and apply a software like 50x multiple, which discounted back to a year from now (mid-2025E) gives us a $9/share value.</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Robo-taxi.</strong> According to CNBC, Waymo, which actually gives driverless rides/operates a robo-taxi service today, latest valuation (2020) was $30bn. GM’s Cruise similarly once had a $30bn valuation, though we believe a current mark could be lower. In our base case, we apply the latest Waymo valuation of $30bn or $9/share. Our upside case more than triples the Waymo valuation to ~$100bn (we&#39;d also note that Uber has a ~$144bn market value). Our downside case assumes no value. We note that Baidu has recently been in the news as their Apollo Go robotaxi autonomous ride-hailing platform has been gaining attention and is piloting in areas such as Wuhan. However, we note that the entire Baidu market cap is ~$35bn. T he stock has rallied of late (~14%) on some of this robotaxi optimism, but that rally only contributed ~$4bn to the market cap.</p></li><li><p><strong>The TSLA Premium (AI, Optimus, other initiatives).</strong> These are difficult to value given they are, at best, R&amp;D today. Here, we are relying on the &#34;collective wisdom of markets&#34;. Going back to our earlier TSLA valuation attribution analysis, on average over the past 2-years, the market has assigned ~$490bn of value (~$141/share) to ex-auto initiatives. Between Energy, FSD and robo-taxi, we only identified $36/share of that, leaving the TSLA premium at $105/share. Note, that assuming the 13% cost of equity, the 5-year future value of that premium is $672bn and the 10-year future value is $1.2T. Given that many of these initiatives are likely to take time to materialize, we believe this seems more than fair. In our upside case, we use the more recent (high) level from our valuation attribution analysis while our downside case assumes no premium, which is closer to the minimum we&#39;ve seen vs identifiable valuations.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3618826a24dbabcfdf1557a12da5e9f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"708\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3243539219\">VALUATION</h2><p>We value TSLA shares using a 55x P/E multiple and apply that to our current 3Q25-2Q26 TSLA EPS forecast. This yields our new $197 price target. 55x (45x prior) is at the high-end of the NTM P/E valuation range over the past 2-years but is supported by our SOTP work above.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a53beb83537bb6c04d35aab5ff5521b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"421\" tg-height=\"270\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3010455971\">Pivotal Questions</h2><h3 id=\"id_1253584077\">Q: Can TSLA get to &gt;5mm vehicle deliveries by 2030?</h3><p><strong>UBS VIEW</strong></p><p>No. We currently forecast 2030 units at ~3.9mm, 19% below consensus. More mid-term, we are also, on average, ~11% below consensus on 2025-27 deliveries. Our view is informed by more tepid demand for EVs (and demand saturation for current model lineup) in the US and more competitive markets in Europe and especially China. New and refreshed models are needed for higher levels of demand, but this is already considered in our forecast. Further, in the mid-term (~2027), achieving &gt;3mm units for delivery when max capacity may be ~3mm could be challenging.</p><p><strong>EVIDENCE</strong></p><p>We took a detailed look at the addressable market for the upcoming lower-cost vehicle. We utilize the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey to support our view on demographics in the US and their willingness/ability to use an EV. We also looked at various UBS Evidence Lab datasets on Tesla&#39;s perception in China.</p><p><strong>WHAT´S PRICED IN?</strong></p><p>At current levels, all else equal, we believe 2030 deliveries would need to be ~6.9mm units vs. UBS forecast of ~3.9mm and consensus of ~4.8mm.</p><h2 id=\"id_2646094200\">How impactful will the &#39;Model 2.5&#39; be?</h2><p>Tesla’s eventful robo-taxi day may get most of the fanfare, focusing on AI and a robo-taxi service. However, in our view, a robo-taxi and other AI initiatives are still much further out. That is why we are focused on the “new” vehicle that Tesla plans to introduce, which we dub the &#39;Model 2.5&#39;. To us, this new vehicle could be the only data point to come out of the event (now expected in Oct) that can materially get investors to revise 2025/26 estimates.</p><p>Recall, Tesla scrapped the Model 2, which was expected to use a brand new unboxed manufacturing process to significantly lower the cost to produce the vehicle and offer a “$25k EV”. In their 1Q24 earnings release, Tesla indicated they plan to launch new vehicles, including more affordable models that utilize aspects of that next generation platform as well as aspects of their existing platform and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as Tesla’s current vehicle line-up.</p><p>We expect the Model 2.5 to look meaningfully different from the Model 3/Y silhouette as to differentiate the vehicle from potential Model 3/Y buyers. We also expect the starting price to be materially lower, potentially down to $25k (though we’d expect few variants to actually transact at that price).</p><p>What is the opportunity for the Model 2.5? In the US, the small standard car category (featuring the likes of the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic) has accounted for ~7% of total sales over the past 5 years, or ~1mm units, on average. The Toyota Corolla is the current segment leader at ~23% share.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756bc5e5ecd7afbf233418072962ec34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p>When we look at the Model 3/Y and their segments, small premium II car and small premium II SUV, respectively, these Tesla models have been able to garner 40-50% share of those segments over time. If Tesla were able to garner similar share in the small standard car category, that would yield a ~450k annual sales opportunity for the Model 2.5 in the US. However, appealing to a lower tier consumer may yield additional challenges for that consumer to go electric. For instance, access to at home charging may be more limited for lower income buyers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4adab9bc7ccdb9925ee45a4524dd4f28\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p>In Europe and China, smaller entry vehicles may appeal to those consumers relative to the US. I n 2023, European sales of small entry level cars was ~1.1mm or ~6% of sales. However, Eastern &amp; Central Europe made up about ~600k of that figure. W e believe these regions are likely to lag Western Europe on electrification. The Model 2.5 is also likely to face more competition in Europe as legacy OEMs look to electrify their small, affordable vehicle offerings. Further, smaller EVs from China are likely to enter the European market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e4fddc5de56a38ee01de16ee69e36d5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p>In 2023, the Chinese affordable entry car market was ~1.7mm units, or ~6% of sales. However, t he Model 2.5 is likely to face intense competition as well, as even today, competitors for a low cost BEVs in China exist.</p><p>To further show the competitive challenge Tesla has in China, we looked to UBS Evidence Lab and China 360, who recently published a brand perception survey which surveyed 1,800 Chinese customers. In regards to Autos, the survey highlighted that the top 5 factors of importance for Chinese customers are safety, trustworthiness, high quality, value for money and versatility. T he survey highlighted that Chinese customers view Tesla&#39;s brand image as one more of p remiumness, trendiness and innovation. On the top 5 factors, Tesla only screened well on high quality.</p><h2 id=\"id_2997648751\">Guided by capacity</h2><p>While the market opportunity may be there globally, we must always keep in mind that production and deliveries must be guided by capacity. We currently forecast TSLA 2024 production at 1.78mm and deliveries at 1.69mm. As of 1Q24, Tesla’s stated installed capacity is 2.35mm units. Tesla has indicated that the move to utilize the same manufacturing lines as their current vehicle lineup would enable them to fully utilize their expected maximum capacity of close to 3mm units. We believe this means utilizing more of the space at their Austin and Berlin facilities. We note Tesla recently received approval to expand capacity in Berlin to increase manufacturing capacity to ~1mm units. Europe imported ~170k TSLA vehicles from China last year, but in light of potential tariffs on EVs made in China, this could make manufacturing more vehicles in Europe more attractive. TSLA produced ~200k vehicles in Germany last year according to S&amp;P Mobility. We believe Tesla may eventually explore expanded capacity at Shanghai, but for now, we believe that facility is operating at max capacity.</p><p>Tesla indicated that they will utilize that ~3mm of capacity before investing in new manufacturing lines. We would assume this means new manufacturing facilities as well. Consensus is currently looking for ~3.1mm unit deliveries in 2027, which likely means production has to be higher than that. Further, operating at 100% utilization is very difficult. So, we see risk to current unit expectations over the coming years.</p><h2 id=\"id_2569836359\">New models important as current demand stagnates</h2><p>The reason why the new model is so critical to TSLA growth is that demand looks more challenging in Tesla’s major regions of the US, China and Europe.</p><h3 id=\"id_2364838120\">US - Is Tesla demand saturated?</h3><p>In the US, YTD BEV penetration is 7.7%, up from 7.6% in 2023. TSLA&#39;s current share of the BEV market in the US is ~51%, which has come down from ~56% in 2023.</p><p>In the US, even recent levels of demand for TSLA vehicles seems to be driven by pricing actions. This is not just price cuts but now also financing actions. In May, TSLA lowered the APR for the Model Y to 0.99% (from a market rate of closer to 6.39%) and lowered the monthly lease payment for the Model 3 to $299 from $329.</p><h3 id=\"id_2405590704\">Europe - demand lower y/y</h3><p>In Europe, BEV penetration YTD is 12.1% (fairly flat y/y), and TSLA has ~17% share, which is down from ~19% last year while penetration has remained relatively flat. This is driven primarily by falling demand in Germany, France and Norway. We believe BEV penetration has stalled, in part because there is no regulatory need for OEMs to push higher BEV mix this year. That should change next year, which could mean we see BEV penetration in Europe increase, but TSLA share decrease further.</p><h3 id=\"id_678076539\">China - A very competitive market</h3><p>In China, YTD NEV retail penetration is ~40%, TSLA&#39;s share of the NEV market being ~7%, with TSLA losing 100bps of share vs 2023. China remains a very competitive market with a multitude of new entrants and new models being brought to production a lot faster than in other parts of the world.</p><h2 id=\"id_3022804001\">Can the Model 2.5 deliver on margin expectations?</h2><p>This remains a key and open question, but the math seems difficult. For instance, if we assume that a Model Y sells for ~$45k and has 20% gross margins, then the COGS/unit is ~$36k. The Model 2 was expected to start at a $25k price point but was also supposed to use an unboxed manufacturing concept that was expected to reduce COGS by ~50% vs. Model 3/Y or call it ~$20k of COGS for the original Model 2 plan. If we assume the plan was for the Model 2 to have had similar gross margins to the Model Y, Model 2 COGS would need to be ~$20k. Part of this reduction is from a smaller battery, reduced content (i.e. no glass roof) as well as better integration and controller reduction, etc. However, we believe roughly 1/3rd was due to the new unboxed manufacturing process. This means Tesla would need to find an additional $5k in cost to get the targeted gross margins of the original Model 2 plan. If we assume Tesla were able to get half of the savings from the originally planned unboxed manufacturing benefit, then, that would imply a gross margin of 10%. Of course, pricing could be higher (and effective pricing will likely be higher from differing trims). However, the higher the price of the Model 2.5 goes and the closer it gets to Model 3/Y pricing, the differentiation and cannibalization problem gets larger.</p><h3 id=\"id_130370043\">Risk to the current share price is currently at 1:1.8 to the downside</h3><p><strong>UPSIDE ($338):</strong> Our upside case uses a 79x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $4.29. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $106 to Auto, $30 to Energy, $13 to FSD, $29 to Robo-taxi and $160 as a Tesla premium for all other initiatives. This implies a value per share of $338.</p><p><strong>BASE ($197):</strong> Our valuation uses 55x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $3.57. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $57 to Auto, $18 to Energy, $9 to FSD, $9 to Robo-taxi and a $105 TSLA premium for other initiatives in line with market implied average over past 2-years. This gets us to our $197 PT.</p><p><strong>DOWNSIDE ($67):</strong> Our downside case uses 23x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $2.86. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $48 to Auto, $14 to Energy, $5 to FSD. In our downside we do not attribute value to Robo-taxi or include a TSLA premium in our valuation, which is closer to the minimum we&#39;ve seen vs identifiable value. This implies a value per share of $67.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS Cuts Tesla to Sell on Concern Over AI-Driven Share Rally; Raises Target Price to $197 From $147</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS Cuts Tesla to Sell on Concern Over AI-Driven Share Rally; Raises Target Price to $197 From $147\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-12 16:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla Inc.’s stock is downgraded by UBS Group, on concerns that the US electric carmaker’s shares have risen “too much, too soon” on optimism over its artificial intelligence plans. </p></li></ul><p><strong>Increasingly difficult to justify valuation</strong></p><p>UBS downgrades TSLA from Neutral to Sell. TSLA is more than just an auto company, and there are some positive developments (e.g. Energy, FSD) that add additional support. This is increasingly important as expectations for the core Auto business deteriorate. TSLA has always had a premium attached to it for other, future, growth initiatives. Properly valuing that optionality is difficult. This premium has widened of late, we believe, on AI enthusiasm. After going through the different businesses we can more substantially value, at current levels, we are still left with a &gt;$500bn “stub” for that future growth. Even if we give that “stub” a 5-year time horizon, that implies a 5-year future value of $1T. And this is just to justify current levels; one would need to see an even larger opportunity to justify a Buy rating. While TSLA is investing heavily in AI and the tech is making progress, investment is costly, pace of improvement may slow and the payoff is long dated. If market enthusiasm for AI diminishes, this may impact TSLA&#39;s multiple. Given the lack of visibility and the risk that growth opportunities materialize on a longer time horizon (or not at all), with the stock at 86x NTM P/E, downgrade to Sell.</p><p><strong>When ex-auto contribution to price nears the highs, good opportunity to sell</strong></p><p>Our valuation attribution analysis shows that the market has (fairly consistently) valued TSLA’s core auto business between $60-$90/share. The “other attribution” has been volatile but past 2 year average is ~$140/share. With the recent rally, it’s now nearly ~$175/share. Fig. 3 shows when other becomes larger contributor to price, stock starts to trend down. O ur SOTP view values auto at ~$57, Energy, which has shown recent strong growth (and higher margin) is worth ~$18. We estimate FSD/robo-taxi could be ~$18 (see UBS Evidence Lab FSD survey inside), but that&#39;s only ~$93 of the more easily identifiable value, implying a premium/future option value that is ~61% of today’s price.</p><p><strong>Where could we be wrong?</strong> 1) TSLA price disconnecting from fundamentals has occurred in the past and can persist for a while. 2) 2Q24 results may be above expectations, causing positive revisions to 25/26F helping to sustain momentum. 3) Investor tepidness to be negative into “robo-taxi” day, and/or there is a true upside surprise at the event. In our view, we believe TSLA is making good technological progress, but the challenge is hard and may face operational challenges (regulatory, etc.). More meaningful than robo-taxi is showing the new vehicle, as that could change 25/26F numbers. But consensus already considers higher units, and we believe the vehicle could pressure auto margins.</p><p><strong>Valuation: PT to $ 197 from $147 based on 55x P/E (45x prior)</strong></p><p>55x is at the high end of the past 2-year range and is supported by our SOTP analysis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/45954af4dbf44b11676fefa1e474d3bb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"226\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1093952194\">Pivotal Questions</h3><p><strong>Q: Can TSLA get to &gt;5mm v ehicle deliveries by 2030?</strong></p><p>No. We currently forecast 2030 units at ~3.9mm, 19% below consensus. More mid-term, we are also, on average, ~11% below consensus on 2025-27 deliveries. Our view is informed by more tepid demand for EVs (and demand saturation for the current model lineup) in the US and more competitive markets in Europe and especially China. New and refreshed models are needed for higher levels of demand, but this is already considered in our forecast. Further, in the mid-term (~2027), achieving &gt;3mm units for delivery when max capacity may be ~3mm could be challenging.</p><p><strong>Q: Can Energy grow at a ~30% CAGR through 2030?</strong></p><p>Potentially. TSLA Energy has grown impressively of late, and importantly, this is currently a high margin business for the company. However, we caution that energy storage deployments can be lumpy. Looking ahead, the opportunity for stationary storage is large, so a ~30% CAGR through 2030 to get to ~$42bn in 2030 revenue is possible. However, more capacity investment would be needed, the timing of which isn&#39;t clear, and the law of large numbers may come into play as we move through the decade. We model a ~22% CAGR through 2030E.</p><p><strong>UBS VIEW</strong></p><p>We are Sell rated on TSLA. TSLA is more than just an auto company, and there are some positive developments in other areas such as Energy and FSD. Further, TSLA has always traded with a premium attached to it for other, future growth initiatives. Properly valuing that optionality is difficult. However, at current levels, we believe that unidentifiable premium is too significant. Given the lack of visibility and the risk that these growth opportunities materialize on a longer time horizon (or don’t materialize at all), we rate the stock Sell.</p><p><strong>EVIDENCE</strong></p><p>We created a proprietary valuation attribution analysis to better understand TSLA valuation. We took a detailed look at the addressable market for the upcoming lower-cost vehicle. We utilize the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey to support our view on demographics in the US and their willingness/ability to use an EV. We also looked at various UBS Evidence Lab datasets on Tesla&#39;s perception in China. We also utilized a UBS Evidence Lab survey to help us better understand the FSD opportunity.</p><p><strong>WHAT´S PRICED IN?</strong></p><p>Tesla has many factors driving its price action, but at current levels and all else equal, we believe 2030 auto units deliveries would need to be ~6.9mm units vs. UBS forecast of ~3.9mm and consensus of ~4.8mm.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07f529112d054be2170f604f3a3e20e7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p><strong>Company Description</strong></p><p>Tesla, Inc. manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and related services. The company&#39;s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. T he company is also working on automated driving technology and Optimus, a robotic humanoid.</p><h2 id=\"id_3819601884\">More than an auto company, but how much more?</h2><p>TSLA is often labeled “not an auto company” or “more than an auto company”. We are more inclined to agree with the latter considering the vast majority of today’s revenue/profits are related to the manufacturing and selling of vehicles. This makes valuing TSLA stock challenging at times. We are not here to say that TSLA should be valued as an auto company as there are other initiatives. Some of these initiatives may have payoffs way out in the future. TSLA stock price been sensitive to future businesses, opportunities and TAMs (i.e. the potential of what TSLA could become). Some premium for this potential is fair, but we do believe investors should be cognizant of how much the auto business and other more readily valuable businesses contributes to the stock price to help ground the valuation and select entry and exit points.</p><h2 id=\"id_3099312274\">UBS&#39; TSLA valuation attribution analysis</h2><p>Below, we took a look at the historical contribution of TSLA’s automotive business to TSLA’s total market value. We specifically focus on auto only for this analysis as for a large period of time, this has been, and remains, the company&#39;s primary driver. A uto also has the richest data for historical consensus expectations. For this analysis, we took consensus 2030 auto delivery expectations (at that time) and consistently applied a $40k ASP, a normalized Auto EBIT margin of 15% and 20x forward P/E multiple. Yes, some will quibble with our assumptions, particularly the multiple considering legacy OEMs trade at single-digit P/Es and Toyota, as a best in class OEM, historically may trade closer to~10x. However, we’d a) argue that TSLA&#39;s auto business still has more growth potential ahead vs. a more mature Toyota and b) we believe we are being somewhat generous to auto for this analysis. We then discount that nominal auto value at the cost of equity (at that time) to that period. We then compare the implied auto contribution to the total market capitalization of TSLA at that time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c1da45256b06a41729fadf0b64bf3d9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p>A few things from this analysis surprised us:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market value attributable to auto was more consistent than we expected. It has generally been between $200-$300bn since 2021 or ~$60-$90 in per share terms. This surprised us because consensus 2030 deliveries used to be &gt;7mm and now stand &gt;30% lower at ~4.8mm units. Mitigating the impact of this negative revision is the discounting (i.e. we are now closer to 2030). Bears may argue even current 2030 expectations are too high, which may be warranted (UBS is at ~3.9mm). However, we felt using consensus expectations to figure out market expectations was more appropriate.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/824940f43a694f9bbfbd3094c34acda4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"406\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>How much of TSLA&#39;s valuation is attributable to “other” initiatives? Over the past 4 years, on average only ~30% of TSLA’s stock price is attributable to core auto, again using our assumptions from above (less if one were to assume a lower margin or multiple). Over the past two years, this has been closer to ~36%. At TSLA’s current price, only 28% of TSLA’s current value is attributable to core auto, an 8pp swing since the end of June and at the lows over the past 2 years.</p></li></ul><p>While valuation disconnections from more tangible fundamentals have occurred in TSLA’s history, and it can persist for extended periods of times, we believe that when these hopes get elevated, it is not a good time to initiate or add to positions. Rather, it’s a time to sell. Over the past two years, when the percent of the stock price that our analysis shows is attributable to auto dips below the 30% average, the stock has entered downward trend channels (see 6/22 and 6/23).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91e873407ad615e28f97130ffdfe1f69\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3206630880\">What about TSLA’s other endeavors?</h2><p>With our attribution analysis showing less than 30% of the current stock price is attributable to core auto, we asked ourselves, did something change? While the recent 2Q24 auto deliveries of ~444k was better than expectations, it was still down -5% y/y and was likely supported by some promotional activity. Further, in our view, quarterly deliveries coming in 20-25k (~5%) better doesn’t warrant a 15% rally since the delivery print (and a ~22% rally over the past 10 days). So, is there reason to be more optimistic on some of TSLA’s other initiatives?</p><h3 id=\"id_2406147011\">Tesla Energy</h3><p>One area that the market may have gotten more excited about, that also came out with the deliveries release, is Tesla Energy, which reported 9.4 GWh of energy storage product deployment in the quarter (+157% y/y and +132% q/q). At their annual meeting, Elon Musk also indicated the company was tracking towards 200-300% y/y growth in energy storage. This is important since Energy is currently higher gross margin than Auto (Energy was 24.6% in 1Q24), so this could help stem negative revisions from the pricing/promotion actions taken to stimulate auto demand. While we are more positive on Energy and raise our Energy sales forecasts, we caution that Energy sales tend to be lumpy.</p><p>Tesla currently has their Megafactory in Lathrop, California, which has an annual capacity to build 10,000 Megapacks or ~40 GWh of storage. During 1Q24 earnings, TSLA announced that they had commissioned their second general assembly line as they look to ramp Lathrop to full capacity. TSLA is also opening their Megafactory in Shanghai which will add an additional 40 GWh of energy storage capacity. We expect this facility to be operational in 1H25. We now forecast TSLA will deploy ~27 GWh of storage this year, and ramp to ~37 GWh next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2235a9dce09f3858e83800a2c8b54fef\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1152913170\">AI</h3><p>Tesla is investing heavily in AI. Earlier this year, Musk announced that TSLA had installed and commissioned 35k Nvidia H100 GPUs and are aiming for 85k GPUs by the end of the year. Musk has also talked about spending ~$10bn on combined training and inference AI this year, the latter being primarily in the car. Tesla is also is developing their own silicon for their Dojo supercomputer, though in January 2024, Musk stated Dojo was “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it&#39;s not something that is a high probability.&#34;</p><p>The fruits of AI investment at Tesla would be related to Full Self Driving (FSD), which is their current advanced driving assistant, their robo-taxi initiative (planned robo-taxi day, now reportedly postponed to October), and Optimus, their humanoid robot initiative.</p><p>We believe TSLA stock price has gotten caught up in the AI trade/phenomenon. While we don’t doubt Tesla is making very good progress on such initiatives, aside from FSD (we were impressed by recent improvement), the other initiatives are purely R&amp;D. Large TAMs for sure, and we have more confidence in Tesla being able to manifest the power of AI in the physical world than we do for other companies. But, these are complex issues, that will take a long time to play out and success is not a certainty. As AI enthusiasm fades, we believe this can impact TSLA&#39;s multiple.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5d81786f308252683379c4c0c26fe48\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_3277089746\">Full Self Driving (FSD)</h3><p>Of large debate is Tesla’s ability to charge, on a monthly recurring basis, for their advanced driver assistance system: FSD (supervised). Earlier this year, Tesla started rolling out the new version of FSD based on an end-to-end AI learning system. Tesla offered a 1-month free trial to all US Tesla vehicles with the proper hardware. They then lowered the monthly subscription cost to $99/month from $199/month.</p><p>We conducted a survey on 306 Tesla owners, ran over June 10-28th, to gauge customer reception and perception to FSD. Key points:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A caveat, we believe our survey skews high to consumers that currently have (pay for) FSD vs. the reality of the marketplace. T his in part may be driven by ~53% of our respondents indicated that a Model S/X was their primary Tesla vs. S/X making up only ~6% of Tesla&#39;s 2023 US sales. S till, we are able to gather some insights from looking only at 3/Y owners and, in particular, respondents who don&#39;t currently own/subscribe to FSD to see what future &#34;take rates&#34; might be (though admittedly this is a smaller sample size).</p></li><li><p>Overall, we would say consumers are satisfied with FSD functionality (62% very satisfied) and feel safe using it (64% completely safe).</p></li><li><p>Of those that are not currently paying for FSD (so either free trial is over or still on free trial) 17% indicated they were likely to pay for FSD over the next 6 months, while 33% said somewhat likely.</p></li><li><p>However, our respondents did over-index to Model S/X vs. 3/Y when in reality, 3/Y is a significantly larger pool (and given the price point of the vehicle, points to a different willingness to pay, in our view). <strong>So, when we look only at respondents who said their main vehicle was a 3 or Y, very likely to pay for FSD over next 6 months dropped to 9% and Net Likely vs. Unlikely is only +3% (Figure 15).</strong></p></li><li><p>At the current $99/month level, 43% of Tesla customers surveyed (that indicated they are likely to continue to pay or will be likely to pay for FSD) indicated they would be willing to pay around this price ($76-$100/month). This dropped to 35% when only looking at Model 3/Y users. To us, this suggests that significantly higher adoption levels may need further price reductions.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5d55bb0563a4f66a132b16a8deab211\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af47480c103d4f6e2b0af57737985d8d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/325c4b93ce1fca3b093525dc33bb296b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p>The willingness (and ability) to pay for FSD matters to us as we think about future, low cost Tesla models. These new lower cost models will have a less expensive monthly vehicle payment. But, that also means that adding an additional $99/month to that payment for FSD will be a significant increase.</p><p>In China, while Tesla is making a push to be able to make FSD available, we have doubts over Tesla&#39;s ability to charge for FSD given many competitors already offer an autonomous solution without charging a monthly fee (or some even an upfront fee). Rather, we view FSD in China as almost a necessity to remain competitive with domestic Chinese offerings that have similar functionality.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b17104146f0628867d84b93db9210fa2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"163\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1267251312\">Robo-taxi</h3><p>We believe robo-taxis are a difficult technological endeavor and the business model also may face regulatory hurdles as well as questions around consumer adoption. Thus, we believe a meaningful r obo-taxi operation in the US is further out (not this decade). Tesla reportedly/recently pushed the planned 8/8 robo-taxi day to October. A subtle reminder that Tesla has had difficulty meeting timelines.</p><p>On the technology side, TSLA&#39;s move to an end-to-end (GenAI) approach has allowed for meaningful improvement in the FSD product. But the FSD product is a very good advanced driving assistant system (L2+). To move to a robo-taxi solution, the march of 9s must continue to be able to operate in all conditions within the operational design domain (ODD). We believe the end-to-end approach, on it&#39;s own, will eventually start to show slowing improvement and diminishing returns. Further, the cost for this improvement can be high. More, unique data is needed to continue the system improvement. TSLA does have access to a lot of data from their fleet, and they employ simulation. But, we believe that, similar to what is seen in GenAI with large language models (LLMs), progress can slow, and each additional improvement to the model can become increasingly more expensive to take (obtaining that new data to get the improvement and the compute to process it).</p><p>The other challenge with an end-to-end approach could be a regulatory one. There will inevitably be accidents and with an end-to-end approach without guard rails, it is difficult to understand why the system made a decision it did, thus difficult to correct for the problem (as rare as the specific event might be). We recently held an expert call on Gen AI for autonomous driving that highlighted the issue regulators may have with the lack of traceability and transparency that comes with an end-to-end approach that TSLA currently utilizes. Further, in certain geographies,TSLA still needs to test their robo-taxi with a driver before being permitted to test autonomously and then to offer driverless rides (see Waymo and Cruise).</p><h3 id=\"id_2212439252\">Optimus</h3><p>While we are excited about the progress Tesla is making on their humanoid robot, we believe this opportunity is much further out. At their annual shareholder meeting, Elon Musk helped frame the long-term opportunity. H e mentioned there could be, one day, 10bn humanoid robots, so if TSLA gets 10% share, that is 100mm Optimus units a year, and if sold for $20k, suggests a $2T revenue opportunity, $1T profit opportunity and a $20T market value opportunity (20x). However, we have difficulty underwriting significant (or specific) value to this opportunity today given the many uncertain variables, the probability of success and the unknown time frame.</p><h2 id=\"id_1024744650\">Sum-of-the-parts</h2><p>Below we take a look at a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) for TSLA to support our P/E based valuation. We also show an upside and downside scenario.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Auto.</strong> We forecast 2030 units at 3.9mm units and ~$146bn in auto revenue. Applying a 15% “normalized” EBIT margin, applying a 20x P/E multiple and discounting that back to a year from now (mid-2025E) at ~13% cost of equity gives us $57/share value. 20x is above traditional OEMs in the mid-single-digits P/E and Toyota at ~10x but warranted given Tesla would still have more room for growth and the &#34;normalized&#34; Auto EBIT margins for TSLA (especially relative to legacy OEMs) could be higher.</p></li><li><p><strong>Energy.</strong> We forecast 113 GWh storage deployment and ~$28bn in Energy revenue (22% 2024-2030E CAGR). Applying a 20% “normalized” EBIT margin, applying a near-market multiple of 25x P/E multiple and discounting that back to a year from now (mid-2025E) gives us $18/share value.</p></li><li><p><strong>FSD.</strong> We forecast ~$1.5bn in 2030 revenue, which equates to ~$0.33 in EPS, and apply a software like 50x multiple, which discounted back to a year from now (mid-2025E) gives us a $9/share value.</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Robo-taxi.</strong> According to CNBC, Waymo, which actually gives driverless rides/operates a robo-taxi service today, latest valuation (2020) was $30bn. GM’s Cruise similarly once had a $30bn valuation, though we believe a current mark could be lower. In our base case, we apply the latest Waymo valuation of $30bn or $9/share. Our upside case more than triples the Waymo valuation to ~$100bn (we&#39;d also note that Uber has a ~$144bn market value). Our downside case assumes no value. We note that Baidu has recently been in the news as their Apollo Go robotaxi autonomous ride-hailing platform has been gaining attention and is piloting in areas such as Wuhan. However, we note that the entire Baidu market cap is ~$35bn. T he stock has rallied of late (~14%) on some of this robotaxi optimism, but that rally only contributed ~$4bn to the market cap.</p></li><li><p><strong>The TSLA Premium (AI, Optimus, other initiatives).</strong> These are difficult to value given they are, at best, R&amp;D today. Here, we are relying on the &#34;collective wisdom of markets&#34;. Going back to our earlier TSLA valuation attribution analysis, on average over the past 2-years, the market has assigned ~$490bn of value (~$141/share) to ex-auto initiatives. Between Energy, FSD and robo-taxi, we only identified $36/share of that, leaving the TSLA premium at $105/share. Note, that assuming the 13% cost of equity, the 5-year future value of that premium is $672bn and the 10-year future value is $1.2T. Given that many of these initiatives are likely to take time to materialize, we believe this seems more than fair. In our upside case, we use the more recent (high) level from our valuation attribution analysis while our downside case assumes no premium, which is closer to the minimum we&#39;ve seen vs identifiable valuations.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3618826a24dbabcfdf1557a12da5e9f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"708\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3243539219\">VALUATION</h2><p>We value TSLA shares using a 55x P/E multiple and apply that to our current 3Q25-2Q26 TSLA EPS forecast. This yields our new $197 price target. 55x (45x prior) is at the high-end of the NTM P/E valuation range over the past 2-years but is supported by our SOTP work above.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a53beb83537bb6c04d35aab5ff5521b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"421\" tg-height=\"270\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3010455971\">Pivotal Questions</h2><h3 id=\"id_1253584077\">Q: Can TSLA get to &gt;5mm vehicle deliveries by 2030?</h3><p><strong>UBS VIEW</strong></p><p>No. We currently forecast 2030 units at ~3.9mm, 19% below consensus. More mid-term, we are also, on average, ~11% below consensus on 2025-27 deliveries. Our view is informed by more tepid demand for EVs (and demand saturation for current model lineup) in the US and more competitive markets in Europe and especially China. New and refreshed models are needed for higher levels of demand, but this is already considered in our forecast. Further, in the mid-term (~2027), achieving &gt;3mm units for delivery when max capacity may be ~3mm could be challenging.</p><p><strong>EVIDENCE</strong></p><p>We took a detailed look at the addressable market for the upcoming lower-cost vehicle. We utilize the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey to support our view on demographics in the US and their willingness/ability to use an EV. We also looked at various UBS Evidence Lab datasets on Tesla&#39;s perception in China.</p><p><strong>WHAT´S PRICED IN?</strong></p><p>At current levels, all else equal, we believe 2030 deliveries would need to be ~6.9mm units vs. UBS forecast of ~3.9mm and consensus of ~4.8mm.</p><h2 id=\"id_2646094200\">How impactful will the &#39;Model 2.5&#39; be?</h2><p>Tesla’s eventful robo-taxi day may get most of the fanfare, focusing on AI and a robo-taxi service. However, in our view, a robo-taxi and other AI initiatives are still much further out. That is why we are focused on the “new” vehicle that Tesla plans to introduce, which we dub the &#39;Model 2.5&#39;. To us, this new vehicle could be the only data point to come out of the event (now expected in Oct) that can materially get investors to revise 2025/26 estimates.</p><p>Recall, Tesla scrapped the Model 2, which was expected to use a brand new unboxed manufacturing process to significantly lower the cost to produce the vehicle and offer a “$25k EV”. In their 1Q24 earnings release, Tesla indicated they plan to launch new vehicles, including more affordable models that utilize aspects of that next generation platform as well as aspects of their existing platform and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as Tesla’s current vehicle line-up.</p><p>We expect the Model 2.5 to look meaningfully different from the Model 3/Y silhouette as to differentiate the vehicle from potential Model 3/Y buyers. We also expect the starting price to be materially lower, potentially down to $25k (though we’d expect few variants to actually transact at that price).</p><p>What is the opportunity for the Model 2.5? In the US, the small standard car category (featuring the likes of the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic) has accounted for ~7% of total sales over the past 5 years, or ~1mm units, on average. The Toyota Corolla is the current segment leader at ~23% share.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756bc5e5ecd7afbf233418072962ec34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p>When we look at the Model 3/Y and their segments, small premium II car and small premium II SUV, respectively, these Tesla models have been able to garner 40-50% share of those segments over time. If Tesla were able to garner similar share in the small standard car category, that would yield a ~450k annual sales opportunity for the Model 2.5 in the US. However, appealing to a lower tier consumer may yield additional challenges for that consumer to go electric. For instance, access to at home charging may be more limited for lower income buyers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4adab9bc7ccdb9925ee45a4524dd4f28\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p>In Europe and China, smaller entry vehicles may appeal to those consumers relative to the US. I n 2023, European sales of small entry level cars was ~1.1mm or ~6% of sales. However, Eastern &amp; Central Europe made up about ~600k of that figure. W e believe these regions are likely to lag Western Europe on electrification. The Model 2.5 is also likely to face more competition in Europe as legacy OEMs look to electrify their small, affordable vehicle offerings. Further, smaller EVs from China are likely to enter the European market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e4fddc5de56a38ee01de16ee69e36d5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p>In 2023, the Chinese affordable entry car market was ~1.7mm units, or ~6% of sales. However, t he Model 2.5 is likely to face intense competition as well, as even today, competitors for a low cost BEVs in China exist.</p><p>To further show the competitive challenge Tesla has in China, we looked to UBS Evidence Lab and China 360, who recently published a brand perception survey which surveyed 1,800 Chinese customers. In regards to Autos, the survey highlighted that the top 5 factors of importance for Chinese customers are safety, trustworthiness, high quality, value for money and versatility. T he survey highlighted that Chinese customers view Tesla&#39;s brand image as one more of p remiumness, trendiness and innovation. On the top 5 factors, Tesla only screened well on high quality.</p><h2 id=\"id_2997648751\">Guided by capacity</h2><p>While the market opportunity may be there globally, we must always keep in mind that production and deliveries must be guided by capacity. We currently forecast TSLA 2024 production at 1.78mm and deliveries at 1.69mm. As of 1Q24, Tesla’s stated installed capacity is 2.35mm units. Tesla has indicated that the move to utilize the same manufacturing lines as their current vehicle lineup would enable them to fully utilize their expected maximum capacity of close to 3mm units. We believe this means utilizing more of the space at their Austin and Berlin facilities. We note Tesla recently received approval to expand capacity in Berlin to increase manufacturing capacity to ~1mm units. Europe imported ~170k TSLA vehicles from China last year, but in light of potential tariffs on EVs made in China, this could make manufacturing more vehicles in Europe more attractive. TSLA produced ~200k vehicles in Germany last year according to S&amp;P Mobility. We believe Tesla may eventually explore expanded capacity at Shanghai, but for now, we believe that facility is operating at max capacity.</p><p>Tesla indicated that they will utilize that ~3mm of capacity before investing in new manufacturing lines. We would assume this means new manufacturing facilities as well. Consensus is currently looking for ~3.1mm unit deliveries in 2027, which likely means production has to be higher than that. Further, operating at 100% utilization is very difficult. So, we see risk to current unit expectations over the coming years.</p><h2 id=\"id_2569836359\">New models important as current demand stagnates</h2><p>The reason why the new model is so critical to TSLA growth is that demand looks more challenging in Tesla’s major regions of the US, China and Europe.</p><h3 id=\"id_2364838120\">US - Is Tesla demand saturated?</h3><p>In the US, YTD BEV penetration is 7.7%, up from 7.6% in 2023. TSLA&#39;s current share of the BEV market in the US is ~51%, which has come down from ~56% in 2023.</p><p>In the US, even recent levels of demand for TSLA vehicles seems to be driven by pricing actions. This is not just price cuts but now also financing actions. In May, TSLA lowered the APR for the Model Y to 0.99% (from a market rate of closer to 6.39%) and lowered the monthly lease payment for the Model 3 to $299 from $329.</p><h3 id=\"id_2405590704\">Europe - demand lower y/y</h3><p>In Europe, BEV penetration YTD is 12.1% (fairly flat y/y), and TSLA has ~17% share, which is down from ~19% last year while penetration has remained relatively flat. This is driven primarily by falling demand in Germany, France and Norway. We believe BEV penetration has stalled, in part because there is no regulatory need for OEMs to push higher BEV mix this year. That should change next year, which could mean we see BEV penetration in Europe increase, but TSLA share decrease further.</p><h3 id=\"id_678076539\">China - A very competitive market</h3><p>In China, YTD NEV retail penetration is ~40%, TSLA&#39;s share of the NEV market being ~7%, with TSLA losing 100bps of share vs 2023. China remains a very competitive market with a multitude of new entrants and new models being brought to production a lot faster than in other parts of the world.</p><h2 id=\"id_3022804001\">Can the Model 2.5 deliver on margin expectations?</h2><p>This remains a key and open question, but the math seems difficult. For instance, if we assume that a Model Y sells for ~$45k and has 20% gross margins, then the COGS/unit is ~$36k. The Model 2 was expected to start at a $25k price point but was also supposed to use an unboxed manufacturing concept that was expected to reduce COGS by ~50% vs. Model 3/Y or call it ~$20k of COGS for the original Model 2 plan. If we assume the plan was for the Model 2 to have had similar gross margins to the Model Y, Model 2 COGS would need to be ~$20k. Part of this reduction is from a smaller battery, reduced content (i.e. no glass roof) as well as better integration and controller reduction, etc. However, we believe roughly 1/3rd was due to the new unboxed manufacturing process. This means Tesla would need to find an additional $5k in cost to get the targeted gross margins of the original Model 2 plan. If we assume Tesla were able to get half of the savings from the originally planned unboxed manufacturing benefit, then, that would imply a gross margin of 10%. Of course, pricing could be higher (and effective pricing will likely be higher from differing trims). However, the higher the price of the Model 2.5 goes and the closer it gets to Model 3/Y pricing, the differentiation and cannibalization problem gets larger.</p><h3 id=\"id_130370043\">Risk to the current share price is currently at 1:1.8 to the downside</h3><p><strong>UPSIDE ($338):</strong> Our upside case uses a 79x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $4.29. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $106 to Auto, $30 to Energy, $13 to FSD, $29 to Robo-taxi and $160 as a Tesla premium for all other initiatives. This implies a value per share of $338.</p><p><strong>BASE ($197):</strong> Our valuation uses 55x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $3.57. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $57 to Auto, $18 to Energy, $9 to FSD, $9 to Robo-taxi and a $105 TSLA premium for other initiatives in line with market implied average over past 2-years. This gets us to our $197 PT.</p><p><strong>DOWNSIDE ($67):</strong> Our downside case uses 23x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $2.86. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $48 to Auto, $14 to Energy, $5 to FSD. In our downside we do not attribute value to Robo-taxi or include a TSLA premium in our valuation, which is closer to the minimum we&#39;ve seen vs identifiable value. This implies a value per share of $67.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195381387","content_text":"Tesla Inc.’s stock is downgraded by UBS Group, on concerns that the US electric carmaker’s shares have risen “too much, too soon” on optimism over its artificial intelligence plans. Increasingly difficult to justify valuationUBS downgrades TSLA from Neutral to Sell. TSLA is more than just an auto company, and there are some positive developments (e.g. Energy, FSD) that add additional support. This is increasingly important as expectations for the core Auto business deteriorate. TSLA has always had a premium attached to it for other, future, growth initiatives. Properly valuing that optionality is difficult. This premium has widened of late, we believe, on AI enthusiasm. After going through the different businesses we can more substantially value, at current levels, we are still left with a >$500bn “stub” for that future growth. Even if we give that “stub” a 5-year time horizon, that implies a 5-year future value of $1T. And this is just to justify current levels; one would need to see an even larger opportunity to justify a Buy rating. While TSLA is investing heavily in AI and the tech is making progress, investment is costly, pace of improvement may slow and the payoff is long dated. If market enthusiasm for AI diminishes, this may impact TSLA's multiple. Given the lack of visibility and the risk that growth opportunities materialize on a longer time horizon (or not at all), with the stock at 86x NTM P/E, downgrade to Sell.When ex-auto contribution to price nears the highs, good opportunity to sellOur valuation attribution analysis shows that the market has (fairly consistently) valued TSLA’s core auto business between $60-$90/share. The “other attribution” has been volatile but past 2 year average is ~$140/share. With the recent rally, it’s now nearly ~$175/share. Fig. 3 shows when other becomes larger contributor to price, stock starts to trend down. O ur SOTP view values auto at ~$57, Energy, which has shown recent strong growth (and higher margin) is worth ~$18. We estimate FSD/robo-taxi could be ~$18 (see UBS Evidence Lab FSD survey inside), but that's only ~$93 of the more easily identifiable value, implying a premium/future option value that is ~61% of today’s price.Where could we be wrong? 1) TSLA price disconnecting from fundamentals has occurred in the past and can persist for a while. 2) 2Q24 results may be above expectations, causing positive revisions to 25/26F helping to sustain momentum. 3) Investor tepidness to be negative into “robo-taxi” day, and/or there is a true upside surprise at the event. In our view, we believe TSLA is making good technological progress, but the challenge is hard and may face operational challenges (regulatory, etc.). More meaningful than robo-taxi is showing the new vehicle, as that could change 25/26F numbers. But consensus already considers higher units, and we believe the vehicle could pressure auto margins.Valuation: PT to $ 197 from $147 based on 55x P/E (45x prior)55x is at the high end of the past 2-year range and is supported by our SOTP analysis.Pivotal QuestionsQ: Can TSLA get to >5mm v ehicle deliveries by 2030?No. We currently forecast 2030 units at ~3.9mm, 19% below consensus. More mid-term, we are also, on average, ~11% below consensus on 2025-27 deliveries. Our view is informed by more tepid demand for EVs (and demand saturation for the current model lineup) in the US and more competitive markets in Europe and especially China. New and refreshed models are needed for higher levels of demand, but this is already considered in our forecast. Further, in the mid-term (~2027), achieving >3mm units for delivery when max capacity may be ~3mm could be challenging.Q: Can Energy grow at a ~30% CAGR through 2030?Potentially. TSLA Energy has grown impressively of late, and importantly, this is currently a high margin business for the company. However, we caution that energy storage deployments can be lumpy. Looking ahead, the opportunity for stationary storage is large, so a ~30% CAGR through 2030 to get to ~$42bn in 2030 revenue is possible. However, more capacity investment would be needed, the timing of which isn't clear, and the law of large numbers may come into play as we move through the decade. We model a ~22% CAGR through 2030E.UBS VIEWWe are Sell rated on TSLA. TSLA is more than just an auto company, and there are some positive developments in other areas such as Energy and FSD. Further, TSLA has always traded with a premium attached to it for other, future growth initiatives. Properly valuing that optionality is difficult. However, at current levels, we believe that unidentifiable premium is too significant. Given the lack of visibility and the risk that these growth opportunities materialize on a longer time horizon (or don’t materialize at all), we rate the stock Sell.EVIDENCEWe created a proprietary valuation attribution analysis to better understand TSLA valuation. We took a detailed look at the addressable market for the upcoming lower-cost vehicle. We utilize the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey to support our view on demographics in the US and their willingness/ability to use an EV. We also looked at various UBS Evidence Lab datasets on Tesla's perception in China. We also utilized a UBS Evidence Lab survey to help us better understand the FSD opportunity.WHAT´S PRICED IN?Tesla has many factors driving its price action, but at current levels and all else equal, we believe 2030 auto units deliveries would need to be ~6.9mm units vs. UBS forecast of ~3.9mm and consensus of ~4.8mm.Company DescriptionTesla, Inc. manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and related services. The company's mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. T he company is also working on automated driving technology and Optimus, a robotic humanoid.More than an auto company, but how much more?TSLA is often labeled “not an auto company” or “more than an auto company”. We are more inclined to agree with the latter considering the vast majority of today’s revenue/profits are related to the manufacturing and selling of vehicles. This makes valuing TSLA stock challenging at times. We are not here to say that TSLA should be valued as an auto company as there are other initiatives. Some of these initiatives may have payoffs way out in the future. TSLA stock price been sensitive to future businesses, opportunities and TAMs (i.e. the potential of what TSLA could become). Some premium for this potential is fair, but we do believe investors should be cognizant of how much the auto business and other more readily valuable businesses contributes to the stock price to help ground the valuation and select entry and exit points.UBS' TSLA valuation attribution analysisBelow, we took a look at the historical contribution of TSLA’s automotive business to TSLA’s total market value. We specifically focus on auto only for this analysis as for a large period of time, this has been, and remains, the company's primary driver. A uto also has the richest data for historical consensus expectations. For this analysis, we took consensus 2030 auto delivery expectations (at that time) and consistently applied a $40k ASP, a normalized Auto EBIT margin of 15% and 20x forward P/E multiple. Yes, some will quibble with our assumptions, particularly the multiple considering legacy OEMs trade at single-digit P/Es and Toyota, as a best in class OEM, historically may trade closer to~10x. However, we’d a) argue that TSLA's auto business still has more growth potential ahead vs. a more mature Toyota and b) we believe we are being somewhat generous to auto for this analysis. We then discount that nominal auto value at the cost of equity (at that time) to that period. We then compare the implied auto contribution to the total market capitalization of TSLA at that time.A few things from this analysis surprised us:The market value attributable to auto was more consistent than we expected. It has generally been between $200-$300bn since 2021 or ~$60-$90 in per share terms. This surprised us because consensus 2030 deliveries used to be >7mm and now stand >30% lower at ~4.8mm units. Mitigating the impact of this negative revision is the discounting (i.e. we are now closer to 2030). Bears may argue even current 2030 expectations are too high, which may be warranted (UBS is at ~3.9mm). However, we felt using consensus expectations to figure out market expectations was more appropriate.How much of TSLA's valuation is attributable to “other” initiatives? Over the past 4 years, on average only ~30% of TSLA’s stock price is attributable to core auto, again using our assumptions from above (less if one were to assume a lower margin or multiple). Over the past two years, this has been closer to ~36%. At TSLA’s current price, only 28% of TSLA’s current value is attributable to core auto, an 8pp swing since the end of June and at the lows over the past 2 years.While valuation disconnections from more tangible fundamentals have occurred in TSLA’s history, and it can persist for extended periods of times, we believe that when these hopes get elevated, it is not a good time to initiate or add to positions. Rather, it’s a time to sell. Over the past two years, when the percent of the stock price that our analysis shows is attributable to auto dips below the 30% average, the stock has entered downward trend channels (see 6/22 and 6/23).What about TSLA’s other endeavors?With our attribution analysis showing less than 30% of the current stock price is attributable to core auto, we asked ourselves, did something change? While the recent 2Q24 auto deliveries of ~444k was better than expectations, it was still down -5% y/y and was likely supported by some promotional activity. Further, in our view, quarterly deliveries coming in 20-25k (~5%) better doesn’t warrant a 15% rally since the delivery print (and a ~22% rally over the past 10 days). So, is there reason to be more optimistic on some of TSLA’s other initiatives?Tesla EnergyOne area that the market may have gotten more excited about, that also came out with the deliveries release, is Tesla Energy, which reported 9.4 GWh of energy storage product deployment in the quarter (+157% y/y and +132% q/q). At their annual meeting, Elon Musk also indicated the company was tracking towards 200-300% y/y growth in energy storage. This is important since Energy is currently higher gross margin than Auto (Energy was 24.6% in 1Q24), so this could help stem negative revisions from the pricing/promotion actions taken to stimulate auto demand. While we are more positive on Energy and raise our Energy sales forecasts, we caution that Energy sales tend to be lumpy.Tesla currently has their Megafactory in Lathrop, California, which has an annual capacity to build 10,000 Megapacks or ~40 GWh of storage. During 1Q24 earnings, TSLA announced that they had commissioned their second general assembly line as they look to ramp Lathrop to full capacity. TSLA is also opening their Megafactory in Shanghai which will add an additional 40 GWh of energy storage capacity. We expect this facility to be operational in 1H25. We now forecast TSLA will deploy ~27 GWh of storage this year, and ramp to ~37 GWh next year.AITesla is investing heavily in AI. Earlier this year, Musk announced that TSLA had installed and commissioned 35k Nvidia H100 GPUs and are aiming for 85k GPUs by the end of the year. Musk has also talked about spending ~$10bn on combined training and inference AI this year, the latter being primarily in the car. Tesla is also is developing their own silicon for their Dojo supercomputer, though in January 2024, Musk stated Dojo was “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it's not something that is a high probability.\"The fruits of AI investment at Tesla would be related to Full Self Driving (FSD), which is their current advanced driving assistant, their robo-taxi initiative (planned robo-taxi day, now reportedly postponed to October), and Optimus, their humanoid robot initiative.We believe TSLA stock price has gotten caught up in the AI trade/phenomenon. While we don’t doubt Tesla is making very good progress on such initiatives, aside from FSD (we were impressed by recent improvement), the other initiatives are purely R&D. Large TAMs for sure, and we have more confidence in Tesla being able to manifest the power of AI in the physical world than we do for other companies. But, these are complex issues, that will take a long time to play out and success is not a certainty. As AI enthusiasm fades, we believe this can impact TSLA's multiple.Full Self Driving (FSD)Of large debate is Tesla’s ability to charge, on a monthly recurring basis, for their advanced driver assistance system: FSD (supervised). Earlier this year, Tesla started rolling out the new version of FSD based on an end-to-end AI learning system. Tesla offered a 1-month free trial to all US Tesla vehicles with the proper hardware. They then lowered the monthly subscription cost to $99/month from $199/month.We conducted a survey on 306 Tesla owners, ran over June 10-28th, to gauge customer reception and perception to FSD. Key points:A caveat, we believe our survey skews high to consumers that currently have (pay for) FSD vs. the reality of the marketplace. T his in part may be driven by ~53% of our respondents indicated that a Model S/X was their primary Tesla vs. S/X making up only ~6% of Tesla's 2023 US sales. S till, we are able to gather some insights from looking only at 3/Y owners and, in particular, respondents who don't currently own/subscribe to FSD to see what future \"take rates\" might be (though admittedly this is a smaller sample size).Overall, we would say consumers are satisfied with FSD functionality (62% very satisfied) and feel safe using it (64% completely safe).Of those that are not currently paying for FSD (so either free trial is over or still on free trial) 17% indicated they were likely to pay for FSD over the next 6 months, while 33% said somewhat likely.However, our respondents did over-index to Model S/X vs. 3/Y when in reality, 3/Y is a significantly larger pool (and given the price point of the vehicle, points to a different willingness to pay, in our view). So, when we look only at respondents who said their main vehicle was a 3 or Y, very likely to pay for FSD over next 6 months dropped to 9% and Net Likely vs. Unlikely is only +3% (Figure 15).At the current $99/month level, 43% of Tesla customers surveyed (that indicated they are likely to continue to pay or will be likely to pay for FSD) indicated they would be willing to pay around this price ($76-$100/month). This dropped to 35% when only looking at Model 3/Y users. To us, this suggests that significantly higher adoption levels may need further price reductions.The willingness (and ability) to pay for FSD matters to us as we think about future, low cost Tesla models. These new lower cost models will have a less expensive monthly vehicle payment. But, that also means that adding an additional $99/month to that payment for FSD will be a significant increase.In China, while Tesla is making a push to be able to make FSD available, we have doubts over Tesla's ability to charge for FSD given many competitors already offer an autonomous solution without charging a monthly fee (or some even an upfront fee). Rather, we view FSD in China as almost a necessity to remain competitive with domestic Chinese offerings that have similar functionality.Robo-taxiWe believe robo-taxis are a difficult technological endeavor and the business model also may face regulatory hurdles as well as questions around consumer adoption. Thus, we believe a meaningful r obo-taxi operation in the US is further out (not this decade). Tesla reportedly/recently pushed the planned 8/8 robo-taxi day to October. A subtle reminder that Tesla has had difficulty meeting timelines.On the technology side, TSLA's move to an end-to-end (GenAI) approach has allowed for meaningful improvement in the FSD product. But the FSD product is a very good advanced driving assistant system (L2+). To move to a robo-taxi solution, the march of 9s must continue to be able to operate in all conditions within the operational design domain (ODD). We believe the end-to-end approach, on it's own, will eventually start to show slowing improvement and diminishing returns. Further, the cost for this improvement can be high. More, unique data is needed to continue the system improvement. TSLA does have access to a lot of data from their fleet, and they employ simulation. But, we believe that, similar to what is seen in GenAI with large language models (LLMs), progress can slow, and each additional improvement to the model can become increasingly more expensive to take (obtaining that new data to get the improvement and the compute to process it).The other challenge with an end-to-end approach could be a regulatory one. There will inevitably be accidents and with an end-to-end approach without guard rails, it is difficult to understand why the system made a decision it did, thus difficult to correct for the problem (as rare as the specific event might be). We recently held an expert call on Gen AI for autonomous driving that highlighted the issue regulators may have with the lack of traceability and transparency that comes with an end-to-end approach that TSLA currently utilizes. Further, in certain geographies,TSLA still needs to test their robo-taxi with a driver before being permitted to test autonomously and then to offer driverless rides (see Waymo and Cruise).OptimusWhile we are excited about the progress Tesla is making on their humanoid robot, we believe this opportunity is much further out. At their annual shareholder meeting, Elon Musk helped frame the long-term opportunity. H e mentioned there could be, one day, 10bn humanoid robots, so if TSLA gets 10% share, that is 100mm Optimus units a year, and if sold for $20k, suggests a $2T revenue opportunity, $1T profit opportunity and a $20T market value opportunity (20x). However, we have difficulty underwriting significant (or specific) value to this opportunity today given the many uncertain variables, the probability of success and the unknown time frame.Sum-of-the-partsBelow we take a look at a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) for TSLA to support our P/E based valuation. We also show an upside and downside scenario.Auto. We forecast 2030 units at 3.9mm units and ~$146bn in auto revenue. Applying a 15% “normalized” EBIT margin, applying a 20x P/E multiple and discounting that back to a year from now (mid-2025E) at ~13% cost of equity gives us $57/share value. 20x is above traditional OEMs in the mid-single-digits P/E and Toyota at ~10x but warranted given Tesla would still have more room for growth and the \"normalized\" Auto EBIT margins for TSLA (especially relative to legacy OEMs) could be higher.Energy. We forecast 113 GWh storage deployment and ~$28bn in Energy revenue (22% 2024-2030E CAGR). Applying a 20% “normalized” EBIT margin, applying a near-market multiple of 25x P/E multiple and discounting that back to a year from now (mid-2025E) gives us $18/share value.FSD. We forecast ~$1.5bn in 2030 revenue, which equates to ~$0.33 in EPS, and apply a software like 50x multiple, which discounted back to a year from now (mid-2025E) gives us a $9/share value.Robo-taxi. According to CNBC, Waymo, which actually gives driverless rides/operates a robo-taxi service today, latest valuation (2020) was $30bn. GM’s Cruise similarly once had a $30bn valuation, though we believe a current mark could be lower. In our base case, we apply the latest Waymo valuation of $30bn or $9/share. Our upside case more than triples the Waymo valuation to ~$100bn (we'd also note that Uber has a ~$144bn market value). Our downside case assumes no value. We note that Baidu has recently been in the news as their Apollo Go robotaxi autonomous ride-hailing platform has been gaining attention and is piloting in areas such as Wuhan. However, we note that the entire Baidu market cap is ~$35bn. T he stock has rallied of late (~14%) on some of this robotaxi optimism, but that rally only contributed ~$4bn to the market cap.The TSLA Premium (AI, Optimus, other initiatives). These are difficult to value given they are, at best, R&D today. Here, we are relying on the \"collective wisdom of markets\". Going back to our earlier TSLA valuation attribution analysis, on average over the past 2-years, the market has assigned ~$490bn of value (~$141/share) to ex-auto initiatives. Between Energy, FSD and robo-taxi, we only identified $36/share of that, leaving the TSLA premium at $105/share. Note, that assuming the 13% cost of equity, the 5-year future value of that premium is $672bn and the 10-year future value is $1.2T. Given that many of these initiatives are likely to take time to materialize, we believe this seems more than fair. In our upside case, we use the more recent (high) level from our valuation attribution analysis while our downside case assumes no premium, which is closer to the minimum we've seen vs identifiable valuations.VALUATIONWe value TSLA shares using a 55x P/E multiple and apply that to our current 3Q25-2Q26 TSLA EPS forecast. This yields our new $197 price target. 55x (45x prior) is at the high-end of the NTM P/E valuation range over the past 2-years but is supported by our SOTP work above.Pivotal QuestionsQ: Can TSLA get to >5mm vehicle deliveries by 2030?UBS VIEWNo. We currently forecast 2030 units at ~3.9mm, 19% below consensus. More mid-term, we are also, on average, ~11% below consensus on 2025-27 deliveries. Our view is informed by more tepid demand for EVs (and demand saturation for current model lineup) in the US and more competitive markets in Europe and especially China. New and refreshed models are needed for higher levels of demand, but this is already considered in our forecast. Further, in the mid-term (~2027), achieving >3mm units for delivery when max capacity may be ~3mm could be challenging.EVIDENCEWe took a detailed look at the addressable market for the upcoming lower-cost vehicle. We utilize the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Survey to support our view on demographics in the US and their willingness/ability to use an EV. We also looked at various UBS Evidence Lab datasets on Tesla's perception in China.WHAT´S PRICED IN?At current levels, all else equal, we believe 2030 deliveries would need to be ~6.9mm units vs. UBS forecast of ~3.9mm and consensus of ~4.8mm.How impactful will the 'Model 2.5' be?Tesla’s eventful robo-taxi day may get most of the fanfare, focusing on AI and a robo-taxi service. However, in our view, a robo-taxi and other AI initiatives are still much further out. That is why we are focused on the “new” vehicle that Tesla plans to introduce, which we dub the 'Model 2.5'. To us, this new vehicle could be the only data point to come out of the event (now expected in Oct) that can materially get investors to revise 2025/26 estimates.Recall, Tesla scrapped the Model 2, which was expected to use a brand new unboxed manufacturing process to significantly lower the cost to produce the vehicle and offer a “$25k EV”. In their 1Q24 earnings release, Tesla indicated they plan to launch new vehicles, including more affordable models that utilize aspects of that next generation platform as well as aspects of their existing platform and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as Tesla’s current vehicle line-up.We expect the Model 2.5 to look meaningfully different from the Model 3/Y silhouette as to differentiate the vehicle from potential Model 3/Y buyers. We also expect the starting price to be materially lower, potentially down to $25k (though we’d expect few variants to actually transact at that price).What is the opportunity for the Model 2.5? In the US, the small standard car category (featuring the likes of the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic) has accounted for ~7% of total sales over the past 5 years, or ~1mm units, on average. The Toyota Corolla is the current segment leader at ~23% share.When we look at the Model 3/Y and their segments, small premium II car and small premium II SUV, respectively, these Tesla models have been able to garner 40-50% share of those segments over time. If Tesla were able to garner similar share in the small standard car category, that would yield a ~450k annual sales opportunity for the Model 2.5 in the US. However, appealing to a lower tier consumer may yield additional challenges for that consumer to go electric. For instance, access to at home charging may be more limited for lower income buyers.In Europe and China, smaller entry vehicles may appeal to those consumers relative to the US. I n 2023, European sales of small entry level cars was ~1.1mm or ~6% of sales. However, Eastern & Central Europe made up about ~600k of that figure. W e believe these regions are likely to lag Western Europe on electrification. The Model 2.5 is also likely to face more competition in Europe as legacy OEMs look to electrify their small, affordable vehicle offerings. Further, smaller EVs from China are likely to enter the European market.In 2023, the Chinese affordable entry car market was ~1.7mm units, or ~6% of sales. However, t he Model 2.5 is likely to face intense competition as well, as even today, competitors for a low cost BEVs in China exist.To further show the competitive challenge Tesla has in China, we looked to UBS Evidence Lab and China 360, who recently published a brand perception survey which surveyed 1,800 Chinese customers. In regards to Autos, the survey highlighted that the top 5 factors of importance for Chinese customers are safety, trustworthiness, high quality, value for money and versatility. T he survey highlighted that Chinese customers view Tesla's brand image as one more of p remiumness, trendiness and innovation. On the top 5 factors, Tesla only screened well on high quality.Guided by capacityWhile the market opportunity may be there globally, we must always keep in mind that production and deliveries must be guided by capacity. We currently forecast TSLA 2024 production at 1.78mm and deliveries at 1.69mm. As of 1Q24, Tesla’s stated installed capacity is 2.35mm units. Tesla has indicated that the move to utilize the same manufacturing lines as their current vehicle lineup would enable them to fully utilize their expected maximum capacity of close to 3mm units. We believe this means utilizing more of the space at their Austin and Berlin facilities. We note Tesla recently received approval to expand capacity in Berlin to increase manufacturing capacity to ~1mm units. Europe imported ~170k TSLA vehicles from China last year, but in light of potential tariffs on EVs made in China, this could make manufacturing more vehicles in Europe more attractive. TSLA produced ~200k vehicles in Germany last year according to S&P Mobility. We believe Tesla may eventually explore expanded capacity at Shanghai, but for now, we believe that facility is operating at max capacity.Tesla indicated that they will utilize that ~3mm of capacity before investing in new manufacturing lines. We would assume this means new manufacturing facilities as well. Consensus is currently looking for ~3.1mm unit deliveries in 2027, which likely means production has to be higher than that. Further, operating at 100% utilization is very difficult. So, we see risk to current unit expectations over the coming years.New models important as current demand stagnatesThe reason why the new model is so critical to TSLA growth is that demand looks more challenging in Tesla’s major regions of the US, China and Europe.US - Is Tesla demand saturated?In the US, YTD BEV penetration is 7.7%, up from 7.6% in 2023. TSLA's current share of the BEV market in the US is ~51%, which has come down from ~56% in 2023.In the US, even recent levels of demand for TSLA vehicles seems to be driven by pricing actions. This is not just price cuts but now also financing actions. In May, TSLA lowered the APR for the Model Y to 0.99% (from a market rate of closer to 6.39%) and lowered the monthly lease payment for the Model 3 to $299 from $329.Europe - demand lower y/yIn Europe, BEV penetration YTD is 12.1% (fairly flat y/y), and TSLA has ~17% share, which is down from ~19% last year while penetration has remained relatively flat. This is driven primarily by falling demand in Germany, France and Norway. We believe BEV penetration has stalled, in part because there is no regulatory need for OEMs to push higher BEV mix this year. That should change next year, which could mean we see BEV penetration in Europe increase, but TSLA share decrease further.China - A very competitive marketIn China, YTD NEV retail penetration is ~40%, TSLA's share of the NEV market being ~7%, with TSLA losing 100bps of share vs 2023. China remains a very competitive market with a multitude of new entrants and new models being brought to production a lot faster than in other parts of the world.Can the Model 2.5 deliver on margin expectations?This remains a key and open question, but the math seems difficult. For instance, if we assume that a Model Y sells for ~$45k and has 20% gross margins, then the COGS/unit is ~$36k. The Model 2 was expected to start at a $25k price point but was also supposed to use an unboxed manufacturing concept that was expected to reduce COGS by ~50% vs. Model 3/Y or call it ~$20k of COGS for the original Model 2 plan. If we assume the plan was for the Model 2 to have had similar gross margins to the Model Y, Model 2 COGS would need to be ~$20k. Part of this reduction is from a smaller battery, reduced content (i.e. no glass roof) as well as better integration and controller reduction, etc. However, we believe roughly 1/3rd was due to the new unboxed manufacturing process. This means Tesla would need to find an additional $5k in cost to get the targeted gross margins of the original Model 2 plan. If we assume Tesla were able to get half of the savings from the originally planned unboxed manufacturing benefit, then, that would imply a gross margin of 10%. Of course, pricing could be higher (and effective pricing will likely be higher from differing trims). However, the higher the price of the Model 2.5 goes and the closer it gets to Model 3/Y pricing, the differentiation and cannibalization problem gets larger.Risk to the current share price is currently at 1:1.8 to the downsideUPSIDE ($338): Our upside case uses a 79x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $4.29. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $106 to Auto, $30 to Energy, $13 to FSD, $29 to Robo-taxi and $160 as a Tesla premium for all other initiatives. This implies a value per share of $338.BASE ($197): Our valuation uses 55x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $3.57. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $57 to Auto, $18 to Energy, $9 to FSD, $9 to Robo-taxi and a $105 TSLA premium for other initiatives in line with market implied average over past 2-years. This gets us to our $197 PT.DOWNSIDE ($67): Our downside case uses 23x PE on our 3Q25-2Q26 EPS estimate of $2.86. This is supported by our SOTP analysis that attributes $48 to Auto, $14 to Energy, $5 to FSD. In our downside we do not attribute value to Robo-taxi or include a TSLA premium in our valuation, which is closer to the minimum we've seen vs identifiable value. This implies a value per share of $67.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326526987538552,"gmtCreate":1720742667320,"gmtModify":1720742672186,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rollercoaster&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>!! What will you do next week heading to earning release?&nbsp;","listText":"Rollercoaster&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>!! What will you do next week heading to earning release?&nbsp;","text":"Rollercoaster $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ !! What will you do next week heading to earning release?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326526987538552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326525179437384,"gmtCreate":1720742150748,"gmtModify":1720748124316,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB)$</a> Is time to get high again!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB)$</a> Is time to get high again!&nbsp;","text":"$Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB)$ Is time to get high again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326525179437384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324123559149592,"gmtCreate":1720137711290,"gmtModify":1720137715654,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.","listText":"Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.","text":"Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":148,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":85,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324123559149592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323017808293944,"gmtCreate":1719892358796,"gmtModify":1719892362421,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> Afraid we haven't seen the bottom yet.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> Afraid we haven't seen the bottom yet.&nbsp;","text":"$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$ Afraid we haven't seen the bottom yet.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323017808293944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4172464550494382","authorId":"4172464550494382","name":"Maku","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4172464550494382","authorIdStr":"4172464550494382"},"content":"send it to 0.2, then buy in. right now, it doesn't look like it is going anywhere except ↘️","text":"send it to 0.2, then buy in. right now, it doesn't look like it is going anywhere except ↘️","html":"send it to 0.2, then buy in. right now, it doesn't look like it is going anywhere except ↘️"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":302157079244864,"gmtCreate":1714788341303,"gmtModify":1714788345239,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#sell everyone! So that I can #buy at discount 😬","listText":"#sell everyone! So that I can #buy at discount 😬","text":"#sell everyone! So that I can #buy at discount 😬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/302157079244864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300064435962048,"gmtCreate":1714277424291,"gmtModify":1714277429213,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑","listText":"Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑","text":"Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":34,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":28,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300064435962048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298733866774808,"gmtCreate":1713941905487,"gmtModify":1713941909359,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Amazing short term recovery but be aware long term it is still down","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Amazing short term recovery but be aware long term it is still down","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Amazing short term recovery but be aware long term it is still down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298733866774808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298333284704536,"gmtCreate":1713853344180,"gmtModify":1713853348741,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple always a buy! Picked up some shares as prices are low 😉","listText":"Apple always a buy! Picked up some shares as prices are low 😉","text":"Apple always a buy! Picked up some shares as prices are low 😉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298333284704536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298289577959536,"gmtCreate":1713853290258,"gmtModify":1713853295476,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea will go up on good performance and extra lift from TikTok shuts shop... I see green","listText":"Sea will go up on good performance and extra lift from TikTok shuts shop... I see green","text":"Sea will go up on good performance and extra lift from TikTok shuts shop... I see green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298289577959536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":295814467440792,"gmtCreate":1713230343147,"gmtModify":1713347589970,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"title":"Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.atigrzen.com/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=ONEUQBCG&amp;feature=Message&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=161befe27b3179510a5b0fb3fb611560&amp;invite=SKJ4PY&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.&nbsp;","listText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.atigrzen.com/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=ONEUQBCG&amp;feature=Message&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=161befe27b3179510a5b0fb3fb611560&amp;invite=SKJ4PY&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.&nbsp;","text":"Find out more here: Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b7f90833b0728cadecb5cb81220f1d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/295814467440792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":293749187326080,"gmtCreate":1712722912503,"gmtModify":1712722916070,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will buy apple @ $150 or lower&nbsp;","listText":"Will buy apple @ $150 or lower&nbsp;","text":"Will buy apple @ $150 or lower","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/293749187326080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":293526461177872,"gmtCreate":1712681249477,"gmtModify":1712681253553,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking through pink glasses and see flowers 🌺 all good signs for upwards trend!","listText":"Looking through pink glasses and see flowers 🌺 all good signs for upwards trend!","text":"Looking through pink glasses and see flowers 🌺 all good signs for upwards trend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/293526461177872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":292583752593640,"gmtCreate":1712457589831,"gmtModify":1712458076729,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> Crack before rises again","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> Crack before rises again","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Crack before rises again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/292583752593640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":277749972123912,"gmtCreate":1708836065256,"gmtModify":1708836068631,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SYK\">$Stryker(SYK)$</a> Great result!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SYK\">$Stryker(SYK)$</a> Great result!&nbsp;","text":"$Stryker(SYK)$ Great result!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73dff61433c6524fe63d4df10f703a9a","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/277749972123912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185961203765392,"gmtCreate":1686440104078,"gmtModify":1686440107609,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All the layoffs Benefits coming in...","listText":"All the layoffs Benefits coming in...","text":"All the layoffs Benefits coming in...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185961203765392","repostId":"185630955692152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":185630955692152,"gmtCreate":1686359465817,"gmtModify":1686361193501,"author":{"id":"4125570196865622","authorId":"4125570196865622","name":"orsiri","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/65ce9f1def4b96d1cd3e7dce4d696e8e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4125570196865622","authorIdStr":"4125570196865622"},"themes":[],"title":"Tech Stocks Trip, But Opportunity Awaits!","htmlText":"In the unpredictable world of investments, pullbacks are as common as finding loose change in your couch cushions. Investors often find themselves on a rollercoaster ride of emotions, desperately searching for the next big buying opportunity. This article will explore the factors that may lead to a potential pullback in the market and how recent events, such as the pullback in tech stocks, and upcoming CPI and Fed decisions, may play a role. But fear not, dear investors, for even in the midst of a pullback, there lies a golden opportunity for those with a keen eye for bargains. Case in point: the recent pullback in Steris stock. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a wild ride! 1. Tech Stocks; A Domino Effect: The recent pullback in tech stocks sent shockwaves through the investment","listText":"In the unpredictable world of investments, pullbacks are as common as finding loose change in your couch cushions. Investors often find themselves on a rollercoaster ride of emotions, desperately searching for the next big buying opportunity. This article will explore the factors that may lead to a potential pullback in the market and how recent events, such as the pullback in tech stocks, and upcoming CPI and Fed decisions, may play a role. But fear not, dear investors, for even in the midst of a pullback, there lies a golden opportunity for those with a keen eye for bargains. Case in point: the recent pullback in Steris stock. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a wild ride! 1. Tech Stocks; A Domino Effect: The recent pullback in tech stocks sent shockwaves through the investment","text":"In the unpredictable world of investments, pullbacks are as common as finding loose change in your couch cushions. Investors often find themselves on a rollercoaster ride of emotions, desperately searching for the next big buying opportunity. This article will explore the factors that may lead to a potential pullback in the market and how recent events, such as the pullback in tech stocks, and upcoming CPI and Fed decisions, may play a role. But fear not, dear investors, for even in the midst of a pullback, there lies a golden opportunity for those with a keen eye for bargains. Case in point: the recent pullback in Steris stock. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a wild ride! 1. Tech Stocks; A Domino Effect: The recent pullback in tech stocks sent shockwaves through the investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185630955692152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185961018503288,"gmtCreate":1686440047558,"gmtModify":1686440051100,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091790236379980","authorIdStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's 2023 and not 2007?","listText":"It's 2023 and not 2007?","text":"It's 2023 and not 2007?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185961018503288","repostId":"185548023484464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":185548023484464,"gmtCreate":1686308129629,"gmtModify":1686308164596,"author":{"id":"4102740236684050","authorId":"4102740236684050","name":"MaverickWealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740236684050","authorIdStr":"4102740236684050"},"themes":[],"title":"Why 2023 is different from 2007?","htmlText":"Since the beginning of the year, the US economy has maintained a downward trend in the general direction, but its resilience has exceeded market expectations. Looking back at the last endogenous recession, it may give us more enlightenment. In fact, before and after the end of the interest rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006, the US stock market also continued to rise, and the US economy showed the characteristics of structural differentiation. After the interest rate hike ended, there was once a great hope for a soft landing. Looking back at that time, we found that: first, the lagging effect of interest rate hikes needs sufficient time to show; second, the market often underestimates financial risks before the fact, believing that \"this time is different.\" However, as the lagging effect of","listText":"Since the beginning of the year, the US economy has maintained a downward trend in the general direction, but its resilience has exceeded market expectations. Looking back at the last endogenous recession, it may give us more enlightenment. In fact, before and after the end of the interest rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006, the US stock market also continued to rise, and the US economy showed the characteristics of structural differentiation. After the interest rate hike ended, there was once a great hope for a soft landing. Looking back at that time, we found that: first, the lagging effect of interest rate hikes needs sufficient time to show; second, the market often underestimates financial risks before the fact, believing that \"this time is different.\" However, as the lagging effect of","text":"Since the beginning of the year, the US economy has maintained a downward trend in the general direction, but its resilience has exceeded market expectations. Looking back at the last endogenous recession, it may give us more enlightenment. In fact, before and after the end of the interest rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006, the US stock market also continued to rise, and the US economy showed the characteristics of structural differentiation. After the interest rate hike ended, there was once a great hope for a soft landing. Looking back at that time, we found that: first, the lagging effect of interest rate hikes needs sufficient time to show; second, the market often underestimates financial risks before the fact, believing that \"this time is different.\" However, as the lagging effect of","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185548023484464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":324123559149592,"gmtCreate":1720137711290,"gmtModify":1720137715654,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.","listText":"Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.","text":"Looking forward to a strong rebound from Nike. Paris 2024 will definitely help. Going long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":148,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":85,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324123559149592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300064435962048,"gmtCreate":1714277424291,"gmtModify":1714277429213,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑","listText":"Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑","text":"Relaxing Sunday.. with no markets open.. looking for another rollercoaster week to come 🤑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":34,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":28,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300064435962048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184994101846048,"gmtCreate":1686203851020,"gmtModify":1686203854602,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm, does he know something is coming?","listText":"Hmm, does he know something is coming?","text":"Hmm, does he know something is coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184994101846048","repostId":"2341022338","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2341022338","pubTimestamp":1686201114,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2341022338?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-08 13:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"ThaiBev ID Wee Gulps 100,000 Shares As Price Dips to Pandemic-Low","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2341022338","media":"The Edge Singapore ","summary":"ThaiBev shares have declined by around a-fifth year to date","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wee Joo Yeow, an independent director of Thai Beverage Public Company, has snapped up 100,000 shares on June 7 at 55 cents each.</p><p>Thai Bev shares have declined by around a fifth year to date.</p><p>Wee, who was appointed to this role on Jan 2021, previously held 90,000 Thai Bev shares. </p><p>At 55 cents, which is also the closing price on June 7, Thai Bev is trading at a level last seen in March 2020, when the pandemic just broke out.</p><p>Besides sitting on Thai Bev&#39;s board, Wee is also an independent director of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, Great Eastern Holdings and Frasers Property.</p><p>In its 1QFY2023 business update for the three months ended Dec 2022, the company said it has enjoyed higher revenue in line with post-pandemic re-opening, although ebitda was down because of higher marketing and material costs. </p><p>For the quarter, sales was up 4.9% y-o-y to THB 81 billion ($3.18 billion) while ebtida was down 7.7% y-o-y to THB 13.5 billion.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"edge_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ThaiBev ID Wee Gulps 100,000 Shares As Price Dips to Pandemic-Low</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThaiBev ID Wee Gulps 100,000 Shares As Price Dips to Pandemic-Low\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-08 13:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/insider-moves/thaibev-id-wee-gulps-100000-shares-price-dips-pandemic-low?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS><strong>The Edge Singapore </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wee Joo Yeow, an independent director of Thai Beverage Public Company, has snapped up 100,000 shares on June 7 at 55 cents each.Thai Bev shares have declined by around a fifth year to date.Wee, who ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/insider-moves/thaibev-id-wee-gulps-100000-shares-price-dips-pandemic-low?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Y92.SI":"泰国酿酒"},"source_url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/insider-moves/thaibev-id-wee-gulps-100000-shares-price-dips-pandemic-low?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2341022338","content_text":"Wee Joo Yeow, an independent director of Thai Beverage Public Company, has snapped up 100,000 shares on June 7 at 55 cents each.Thai Bev shares have declined by around a fifth year to date.Wee, who was appointed to this role on Jan 2021, previously held 90,000 Thai Bev shares. At 55 cents, which is also the closing price on June 7, Thai Bev is trading at a level last seen in March 2020, when the pandemic just broke out.Besides sitting on Thai Bev's board, Wee is also an independent director of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, Great Eastern Holdings and Frasers Property.In its 1QFY2023 business update for the three months ended Dec 2022, the company said it has enjoyed higher revenue in line with post-pandemic re-opening, although ebitda was down because of higher marketing and material costs. For the quarter, sales was up 4.9% y-o-y to THB 81 billion ($3.18 billion) while ebtida was down 7.7% y-o-y to THB 13.5 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":277749972123912,"gmtCreate":1708836065256,"gmtModify":1708836068631,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SYK\">$Stryker(SYK)$</a> Great result!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SYK\">$Stryker(SYK)$</a> Great result!&nbsp;","text":"$Stryker(SYK)$ Great result!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73dff61433c6524fe63d4df10f703a9a","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/277749972123912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185961018503288,"gmtCreate":1686440047558,"gmtModify":1686440051100,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's 2023 and not 2007?","listText":"It's 2023 and not 2007?","text":"It's 2023 and not 2007?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185961018503288","repostId":"185548023484464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":185548023484464,"gmtCreate":1686308129629,"gmtModify":1686308164596,"author":{"id":"4102740236684050","authorId":"4102740236684050","name":"MaverickWealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102740236684050","idStr":"4102740236684050"},"themes":[],"title":"Why 2023 is different from 2007?","htmlText":"Since the beginning of the year, the US economy has maintained a downward trend in the general direction, but its resilience has exceeded market expectations. Looking back at the last endogenous recession, it may give us more enlightenment. In fact, before and after the end of the interest rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006, the US stock market also continued to rise, and the US economy showed the characteristics of structural differentiation. After the interest rate hike ended, there was once a great hope for a soft landing. Looking back at that time, we found that: first, the lagging effect of interest rate hikes needs sufficient time to show; second, the market often underestimates financial risks before the fact, believing that \"this time is different.\" However, as the lagging effect of","listText":"Since the beginning of the year, the US economy has maintained a downward trend in the general direction, but its resilience has exceeded market expectations. Looking back at the last endogenous recession, it may give us more enlightenment. In fact, before and after the end of the interest rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006, the US stock market also continued to rise, and the US economy showed the characteristics of structural differentiation. After the interest rate hike ended, there was once a great hope for a soft landing. Looking back at that time, we found that: first, the lagging effect of interest rate hikes needs sufficient time to show; second, the market often underestimates financial risks before the fact, believing that \"this time is different.\" However, as the lagging effect of","text":"Since the beginning of the year, the US economy has maintained a downward trend in the general direction, but its resilience has exceeded market expectations. Looking back at the last endogenous recession, it may give us more enlightenment. In fact, before and after the end of the interest rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006, the US stock market also continued to rise, and the US economy showed the characteristics of structural differentiation. After the interest rate hike ended, there was once a great hope for a soft landing. Looking back at that time, we found that: first, the lagging effect of interest rate hikes needs sufficient time to show; second, the market often underestimates financial risks before the fact, believing that \"this time is different.\" However, as the lagging effect of","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185548023484464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969150433,"gmtCreate":1668388735123,"gmtModify":1676538048135,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oeps","listText":"Oeps","text":"Oeps","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969150433","repostId":"2283144175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2283144175","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668383535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2283144175?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-14 07:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"At Least $1 Billion of Client Funds Missing at Failed Crypto Firm FTX","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283144175","media":"Reuters","summary":"FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sourcesBankm","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sources</li><li>Bankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sources</li><li>Spreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sources</li><li>Executives set up book-keeping &#34;back door&#34; that thwarted red flags - sources</li><li>Whereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The exchange&#39;s founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried&#39;s trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.</p><p>A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.</p><p>While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.</p><p>The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company&#39;s finances by top staff.</p><p>Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.</p><p>In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he &#34;disagreed with the characterization&#34; of the $10 billion transfer.</p><p>&#34;We didn&#39;t secretly transfer,&#34; he said. &#34;We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,&#34; he added, without elaborating.</p><p>Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: &#34;???&#34;</p><p>FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.</p><p>In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was &#34;piecing together&#34; what had happened at FTX. &#34;I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week,&#34; he wrote. &#34;I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play.&#34;</p><p>At the heart of FTX&#39;s problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.</p><p>Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX&#39;s digital token, worth at least $580 million, &#34;due to recent revelations.&#34; Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda&#39;s $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.</p><p>That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX&#39;s shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX&#39;s finances said.</p><p>Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.</p><p>Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company&#39;s regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.</p><p>The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda&#39;s assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don&#39;t know what became of it.</p><p>In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a &#34;backdoor&#34; in FTX&#39;s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.</p><p>They said the &#34;backdoor&#34; allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company&#39;s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.</p><p>In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a &#34;backdoor&#34;.</p><p>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com&#39;s handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.</p><p>FTX&#39;s bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.</p><p>The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX&#39;s collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.</p><p>On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>At Least $1 Billion of Client Funds Missing at Failed Crypto Firm FTX</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAt Least $1 Billion of Client Funds Missing at Failed Crypto Firm FTX\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-14 07:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sources</li><li>Bankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sources</li><li>Spreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sources</li><li>Executives set up book-keeping &#34;back door&#34; that thwarted red flags - sources</li><li>Whereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The exchange&#39;s founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried&#39;s trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.</p><p>A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.</p><p>While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.</p><p>The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company&#39;s finances by top staff.</p><p>Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.</p><p>In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he &#34;disagreed with the characterization&#34; of the $10 billion transfer.</p><p>&#34;We didn&#39;t secretly transfer,&#34; he said. &#34;We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,&#34; he added, without elaborating.</p><p>Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: &#34;???&#34;</p><p>FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.</p><p>In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was &#34;piecing together&#34; what had happened at FTX. &#34;I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week,&#34; he wrote. &#34;I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play.&#34;</p><p>At the heart of FTX&#39;s problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.</p><p>Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX&#39;s digital token, worth at least $580 million, &#34;due to recent revelations.&#34; Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda&#39;s $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.</p><p>That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX&#39;s shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX&#39;s finances said.</p><p>Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.</p><p>Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company&#39;s regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.</p><p>The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda&#39;s assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don&#39;t know what became of it.</p><p>In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a &#34;backdoor&#34; in FTX&#39;s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.</p><p>They said the &#34;backdoor&#34; allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company&#39;s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.</p><p>In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a &#34;backdoor&#34;.</p><p>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com&#39;s handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.</p><p>FTX&#39;s bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.</p><p>The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX&#39;s collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.</p><p>On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2283144175","content_text":"FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda - sourcesBankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda - sourcesSpreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sourcesExecutives set up book-keeping \"back door\" that thwarted red flags - sourcesWhereabouts of missing funds is unknown - sources(Reuters) - At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.The exchange's founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried's trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company's finances by top staff.Bahamas-based FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday after a rush of customer withdrawals earlier this week. A rescue deal with rival exchange Binance fell through, precipitating crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years.In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried said he \"disagreed with the characterization\" of the $10 billion transfer.\"We didn't secretly transfer,\" he said. \"We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,\" he added, without elaborating.Asked about the missing funds, Bankman-Fried responded: \"???\"FTX and Alameda did not respond to requests for comment.In a tweet on Friday, Bankman-Fried said he was \"piecing together\" what had happened at FTX. \"I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week,\" he wrote. \"I will, soon, write up a more complete post on the play by play.\"At the heart of FTX's problems were losses at Alameda that most FTX executives did not know about, Reuters has previously reported.Customer withdrawals had surged last Sunday after Changpeng Zhao, CEO of giant crypto exchange Binance, said Binance would sell its entire stake in FTX's digital token, worth at least $580 million, \"due to recent revelations.\" Four days before, news outlet CoinDesk reported that much of Alameda's $14.6 billion in assets were held in the token.That Sunday, Bankman-Fried held a meeting with several executives in the Bahamas capital Nassau to calculate how much outside funding he needed to cover FTX's shortfall, the two people with knowledge of FTX's finances said.Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place.Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company's regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda's assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don't know what became of it.In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a \"backdoor\" in FTX's book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.They said the \"backdoor\" allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company's financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a \"backdoor\".The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating FTX.com's handling of customer funds, as well its crypto-lending activities, a source with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters on Wednesday. The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also investigating, the source said.FTX's bankruptcy marked a stunning reversal for Bankman-Fried. The 30-year-old had set up FTX in 2019 and led it to become one of the largest crypto exchanges, accumulating a personal fortune estimated at nearly $17 billion. FTX was valued in January at $32 billion, with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock.The crisis has sent reverberations through the crypto world, with the price of major coins plummeting. And FTX's collapse is drawing comparisons to earlier major business meltdowns.On Friday, FTX said it had turned over control of the company to John J. Ray III, the restructuring specialist who handled the liquidation of Enron Corp – one of the largest bankruptcies in history.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883099612,"gmtCreate":1631185821536,"gmtModify":1676530490453,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The big banks are going short, small tradersdumping shares, price go down. Big banks buy cheap, prices up, small traders want to join prices higher. Big banks going short, circle repeats…","listText":"The big banks are going short, small tradersdumping shares, price go down. Big banks buy cheap, prices up, small traders want to join prices higher. Big banks going short, circle repeats…","text":"The big banks are going short, small tradersdumping shares, price go down. Big banks buy cheap, prices up, small traders want to join prices higher. Big banks going short, circle repeats…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883099612","repostId":"1112626627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112626627","pubTimestamp":1631168221,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112626627?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 14:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112626627","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.\nThese ar","content":"<p><i>Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.</i></p>\n<p>These are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.</p>\n<p><u><b>Morgan Stanley</b></u></p>\n<p>We start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"<b>which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500</b>\" through October.</p>\n<p>Sheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b>Policy divergence and the start of tapering:</b>MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Vaccination divergence:</b>The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Valuation divergence:</b>2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"<i>Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b>Echoes of 2004:</b>Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Doing things &gt; buying things:</b>The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy &gt; metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>While regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89346c02440d5fab4a98e72d7d27ba1f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2afd584db11f19b6b05031483d6f6c\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with a<b>market correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... or<b>\"ice\"</b>as consumer spending grinds to a halt.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b>September and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:</b>The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a result<b>Morgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight</b>.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>For the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.</b>On growth, the bank believes that \"<i>we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,</i><i><b>but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"</b></i></p></li>\n <li><p><b>In rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,</b>after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>For equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:</b>That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500.<b>Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.</b></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>Putting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “<b>we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"</b>adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”</p>\n<p><u><b>Bank of America</b></u></p>\n<p>Regular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&amp;P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.</p>\n<p>Well that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&amp;P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"<i><b>downside risks remain\"</b></i>and asking \"<i><b>what good news is left</b></i>?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&amp;P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90219af90e39133a9a8eb66d0c0b8b5e\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>But far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"<i>Should you keep dancing if the music slows down</i>?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&amp;P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.</p>\n<p>Next, Subramanian warns that \"<i>sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cceedf36db75a0f6e084d6dcd15450b5\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&amp;P500 returns...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bba5b54c4c953c1b807b2ade30989a8\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7359b080cc5e60ad6723c32b74c68b70\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"976\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,<b>with S&amp;P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline</b>. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aef25e2e8272798285ebdeeeb692671\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Having reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"<b>this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n If taper means no upside to the S&amp;P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – \n <b>PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&amp;P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>As noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&amp;P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&amp;P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates that<b>the 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da5e585ef1b82a957e348d35e1e959b\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>Deutsche Bank</b></u></p>\n<p>While not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.<b>This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"</b></p>\n<p>Looking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but<i>\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"</i></p>\n<p>ANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"<i><b>expect an imminent correction</b></i>\" even though they see the S&amp;P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.</p>\n<p>Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&amp;P drop 6%-10%:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Indicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative</p></li>\n <li><p>Earnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.</p></li>\n <li><p>Inflation risks are rising.</p></li>\n <li><p>And overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>But, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.</p>\n<p>The summary of the bank's market views is below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393a1c149faa0a0ba4b5a163c46f0615\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>Goldman Sachs</b></u></p>\n<p>Perhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”</p>\n<p>“The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.</p>\n<p>Writing in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&amp;P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.<b>After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&amp;P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938dbf6f7ed7bb36b78a422b7829b9b7\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cefc2563977601840609b214886ffe6\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, as Goldman warns,<b>\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"</b>During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&amp;P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&amp;P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&amp;P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5b78b4707ec4beeb36ba3bde0c12e4\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.</p>\n<p>The conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"</p>\n<p><u><b>Citigroup</b></u></p>\n<p>The threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&amp;P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,<b>half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.</b>And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.</p>\n<p>As Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.</p>\n<p>Focusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880354e695a0e0b3140c297256f35a1\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">WIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"<b>risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"</b>According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).<b>That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Finally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"<b>nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"</b></p>\n<p>In short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.</p>\n<p><u><b>Credit Suisse</b></u></p>\n<p>We round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist&nbsp;Andrew Garthwaite who while turned<b>bearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.</b></p>\n<p>Europe’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.</p>\n<p>* * *</p>\n<p>So is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.</p>\n<p>In his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.</p>\n<p>“Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7624eef20d4b231aad9ebb3afc2e3e10\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"</p>\n<p>At the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1854fc59f780452d1b297f29f0f8fc05\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter&nbsp; argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"</p>\n<p>And since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 14:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.\nThese are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112626627","content_text":"Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.\nThese are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.\nMorgan Stanley\nWe start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500\" through October.\nSheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:\n\nPolicy divergence and the start of tapering:MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.\nVaccination divergence:The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.\nValuation divergence:2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"\nEchoes of 2004:Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.\nDoing things > buying things:The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy > metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.\n\nWhile regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.\n\nAs part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...\n\n... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with amarket correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...\n\n... or\"ice\"as consumer spending grinds to a halt.\nPutting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:\n\nSeptember and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a resultMorgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight.\nFor the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.On growth, the bank believes that \"we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"\nIn rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.\nFor equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500.Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.\n\nPutting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”\nBank of America\nRegular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.\nWell that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"downside risks remain\"and asking \"what good news is left?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.\n\nBut far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"Should you keep dancing if the music slows down?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.\nNext, Subramanian warns that \"sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...\n\n... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&P500 returns...\n\n... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.\n\nThe BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,with S&P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"\n\nHaving reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"\n\n If taper means no upside to the S&P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – \n PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.\n\nAs noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates thatthe 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.\nDeutsche Bank\nWhile not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"\nLooking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"\nANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"expect an imminent correction\" even though they see the S&P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.\nSome more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&P drop 6%-10%:\n\nIndicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative\nEarnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.\nInflation risks are rising.\nAnd overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.\n\nBut, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.\nThe summary of the bank's market views is below:\n\nGoldman Sachs\nPerhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”\n“The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.\nWriting in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"\nThis, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"\nMeanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.\nHowever, as Goldman warns,\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.\nMeanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.\nThe conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"\nCitigroup\nThe threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.\nAs Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.\nFocusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"\nWIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.\"\nFinally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"\nIn short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.\nCredit Suisse\nWe round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite who while turnedbearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.\nEurope’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.\n* * *\nSo is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.\nIn his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.\n“Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”\n\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"\nAt the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".\nAnd while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter  argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"\nAnd since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966551590,"gmtCreate":1669597651711,"gmtModify":1676538210921,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966551590","repostId":"1133481515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133481515","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669596000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133481515?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 08:40","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks to Watch: ThaiBev, ST Engineering, First Reit, Vertex Technology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133481515","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Nov 28):</p><p><b>THAI Beverage</b> on Friday (Nov 25) posted earnings of 30.1 billion baht (S$1.2 billion) for the full FY2022, up 22.2 per cent from net profit of 24.6 billion baht in FY2021. On a per-share basis, earnings came in at 1.2 baht, up from 0.98 baht.</p><p>The group has proposed a final dividend of 0.45 baht per share, higher than the final dividend of 0.35 baht last year. The dividend will be paid out to shareholders on Feb 24, 2023, after the book closure date of Feb 7.</p><p><b>Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engineering)</b> has reported revenue of $2.2 billion for the 3QFY2022 ended Sept 30, 22.2% higher than the revenue of $1.8 billion in the corresponding quarter before.</p><p>For the 9MFY2022, ST Engineering’s revenue increased by 19% y-o-y to $6.51 billion as all segments registered revenue growths.</p><p><b>FIRST Real Estate Investment Trust</b> (Reit) trustee Perpetual (Asia) has entered into a facility agreement with OCBC and CIMB Singapore as original lenders in terms of a term loan facility of S$225 million and a revolving credit facility of S$75 million, the Reit manager announced in a press statement on Friday (Nov 25).</p><p>Proceeds from the facilities will go towards refinancing an existing S$260 million term and revolving credit facilities due in March 2023, with an outstanding debt of S$225.7 million. The existing loan represents 50.6 per cent of First Reit’s total debt as at Sep 30.</p><p>Morgan Stanley picked up an additional 603,363 shares of <b>Vertex Technology </b>Acquisition Corporation on Nov 23 and became the latest substantial shareholder of Singapore’s first special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) with a deemed interest of just over 6 per cent.</p><p>A filing on Friday (Nov 25) showed that Morgan Stanley now has a deemed interest of about 2.5 million VTAC shares, up from 1.9 million shares or a stake of about 4.6 per cent prior to the transaction.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stocks to Watch: ThaiBev, ST Engineering, First Reit, Vertex Technology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stocks to Watch: ThaiBev, ST Engineering, First Reit, Vertex Technology\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-28 08:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Nov 28):</p><p><b>THAI Beverage</b> on Friday (Nov 25) posted earnings of 30.1 billion baht (S$1.2 billion) for the full FY2022, up 22.2 per cent from net profit of 24.6 billion baht in FY2021. On a per-share basis, earnings came in at 1.2 baht, up from 0.98 baht.</p><p>The group has proposed a final dividend of 0.45 baht per share, higher than the final dividend of 0.35 baht last year. The dividend will be paid out to shareholders on Feb 24, 2023, after the book closure date of Feb 7.</p><p><b>Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engineering)</b> has reported revenue of $2.2 billion for the 3QFY2022 ended Sept 30, 22.2% higher than the revenue of $1.8 billion in the corresponding quarter before.</p><p>For the 9MFY2022, ST Engineering’s revenue increased by 19% y-o-y to $6.51 billion as all segments registered revenue growths.</p><p><b>FIRST Real Estate Investment Trust</b> (Reit) trustee Perpetual (Asia) has entered into a facility agreement with OCBC and CIMB Singapore as original lenders in terms of a term loan facility of S$225 million and a revolving credit facility of S$75 million, the Reit manager announced in a press statement on Friday (Nov 25).</p><p>Proceeds from the facilities will go towards refinancing an existing S$260 million term and revolving credit facilities due in March 2023, with an outstanding debt of S$225.7 million. The existing loan represents 50.6 per cent of First Reit’s total debt as at Sep 30.</p><p>Morgan Stanley picked up an additional 603,363 shares of <b>Vertex Technology </b>Acquisition Corporation on Nov 23 and became the latest substantial shareholder of Singapore’s first special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) with a deemed interest of just over 6 per cent.</p><p>A filing on Friday (Nov 25) showed that Morgan Stanley now has a deemed interest of about 2.5 million VTAC shares, up from 1.9 million shares or a stake of about 4.6 per cent prior to the transaction.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AW9U.SI":"先锋医疗产业信托","S63.SI":"新科工程","Y92.SI":"泰国酿酒"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133481515","content_text":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Nov 28):THAI Beverage on Friday (Nov 25) posted earnings of 30.1 billion baht (S$1.2 billion) for the full FY2022, up 22.2 per cent from net profit of 24.6 billion baht in FY2021. On a per-share basis, earnings came in at 1.2 baht, up from 0.98 baht.The group has proposed a final dividend of 0.45 baht per share, higher than the final dividend of 0.35 baht last year. The dividend will be paid out to shareholders on Feb 24, 2023, after the book closure date of Feb 7.Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engineering) has reported revenue of $2.2 billion for the 3QFY2022 ended Sept 30, 22.2% higher than the revenue of $1.8 billion in the corresponding quarter before.For the 9MFY2022, ST Engineering’s revenue increased by 19% y-o-y to $6.51 billion as all segments registered revenue growths.FIRST Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit) trustee Perpetual (Asia) has entered into a facility agreement with OCBC and CIMB Singapore as original lenders in terms of a term loan facility of S$225 million and a revolving credit facility of S$75 million, the Reit manager announced in a press statement on Friday (Nov 25).Proceeds from the facilities will go towards refinancing an existing S$260 million term and revolving credit facilities due in March 2023, with an outstanding debt of S$225.7 million. The existing loan represents 50.6 per cent of First Reit’s total debt as at Sep 30.Morgan Stanley picked up an additional 603,363 shares of Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation on Nov 23 and became the latest substantial shareholder of Singapore’s first special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) with a deemed interest of just over 6 per cent.A filing on Friday (Nov 25) showed that Morgan Stanley now has a deemed interest of about 2.5 million VTAC shares, up from 1.9 million shares or a stake of about 4.6 per cent prior to the transaction.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818968009,"gmtCreate":1630371160901,"gmtModify":1676530282748,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do we still need zoom that much, when we are&nbsp;going back to the office?","listText":"Do we still need zoom that much, when we are&nbsp;going back to the office?","text":"Do we still need zoom that much, when we are going back to the office?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818968009","repostId":"2163835648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2163835648","pubTimestamp":1630359612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2163835648?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 05:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom Sinks as Forecast Fuels Post-Pandemic Letdown Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163835648","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Zoom Video Communications Inc. gave a sales forecast that fell short of some analysts","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications Inc. gave a sales forecast that fell short of some analysts’ estimates, raising concerns the company will have difficulty maintaining rapid revenue growth as workers turn away from remote meetings. Shares fell more than 11% in extended trading.</p>\n<p>Revenue will be about $1.02 billion in the current period, and $4.01 billion in the fiscal year, the San Jose, California-based company said Monday in a statement. Analysts had expected quarterly revenue of as much as $1.06 billion and annual sales of as much as $4.08 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Zoom’s video-conferencing platform became a ubiquitous tool for work and school throughout the pandemic. With many schools restarting in person, offices reopening in some parts of the world and competition increasing from companies like Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, investors are concerned the days of Zoom’s robust growth are over.</p>\n<p>Chief Executive Officer Eric Yuan is looking for ways to keep up the pace. The company last month agreed to acquire <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVN\">Five9 Inc</a>. for $14.7 billion to expand in the market for call center software, and Zoom has added premium products such as a cloud-based phone system.</p>\n<p>“The primary issue is how fast the business is decelerating,” said Pat Walravens, an analyst at JMP Securities. Zoom revenue rose 369% in the 2020 fiscal fourth quarter, 191% in the first and 54% in the three months ended July 31. The company’s forecasts indicate sales may increase just 15% in the fiscal fourth quarter, he said.</p>\n<p>“Bigger picture, a lot of people already bought the core video conferencing solution, so now the question is what else can Zoom sell to its customers?” Walravens said.</p>\n<p>Sales were $1.02 billion in the fiscal second quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $990.2 million. Profit, excluding some items, was $1.36 a share. Analysts projected $1.16. Net income was $316.9 million, or $1.04 a share, compared with $185.7 million, or 63 cents, in the year-ago period.</p>\n<p>Zoom didn’t add as many large customers as analysts expected. The company said it had 504,900 clients with more than 10 employees, a gain of 36% from a year earlier. Analysts estimated 509,316. Zoom gained 87% more of those customers, year over year, in the previous quarter.</p>\n<p>Shares declined to a low of $305.20 in extended trading after closing at $347.50. While the stock jumped almost fivefold in 2020, it has risen just 3% so far this year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984c2a6bff7c2397954153889b537812\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom Sinks as Forecast Fuels Post-Pandemic Letdown Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom Sinks as Forecast Fuels Post-Pandemic Letdown Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-31 05:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-sinks-forecast-fuels-post-214012382.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Zoom Video Communications Inc. gave a sales forecast that fell short of some analysts’ estimates, raising concerns the company will have difficulty maintaining rapid revenue growth as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-sinks-forecast-fuels-post-214012382.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-sinks-forecast-fuels-post-214012382.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2163835648","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Zoom Video Communications Inc. gave a sales forecast that fell short of some analysts’ estimates, raising concerns the company will have difficulty maintaining rapid revenue growth as workers turn away from remote meetings. Shares fell more than 11% in extended trading.\nRevenue will be about $1.02 billion in the current period, and $4.01 billion in the fiscal year, the San Jose, California-based company said Monday in a statement. Analysts had expected quarterly revenue of as much as $1.06 billion and annual sales of as much as $4.08 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.\nZoom’s video-conferencing platform became a ubiquitous tool for work and school throughout the pandemic. With many schools restarting in person, offices reopening in some parts of the world and competition increasing from companies like Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, investors are concerned the days of Zoom’s robust growth are over.\nChief Executive Officer Eric Yuan is looking for ways to keep up the pace. The company last month agreed to acquire Five9 Inc. for $14.7 billion to expand in the market for call center software, and Zoom has added premium products such as a cloud-based phone system.\n“The primary issue is how fast the business is decelerating,” said Pat Walravens, an analyst at JMP Securities. Zoom revenue rose 369% in the 2020 fiscal fourth quarter, 191% in the first and 54% in the three months ended July 31. The company’s forecasts indicate sales may increase just 15% in the fiscal fourth quarter, he said.\n“Bigger picture, a lot of people already bought the core video conferencing solution, so now the question is what else can Zoom sell to its customers?” Walravens said.\nSales were $1.02 billion in the fiscal second quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $990.2 million. Profit, excluding some items, was $1.36 a share. Analysts projected $1.16. Net income was $316.9 million, or $1.04 a share, compared with $185.7 million, or 63 cents, in the year-ago period.\nZoom didn’t add as many large customers as analysts expected. The company said it had 504,900 clients with more than 10 employees, a gain of 36% from a year earlier. Analysts estimated 509,316. Zoom gained 87% more of those customers, year over year, in the previous quarter.\nShares declined to a low of $305.20 in extended trading after closing at $347.50. While the stock jumped almost fivefold in 2020, it has risen just 3% so far this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586131488444401","authorId":"3586131488444401","name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586131488444401","idStr":"3586131488444401"},"content":"maybe good for out of country meeting. save some cost of travel.","text":"maybe good for out of country meeting. save some cost of travel.","html":"maybe good for out of country meeting. save some cost of travel."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863647931,"gmtCreate":1632390685323,"gmtModify":1676530770639,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tick tock, to big to fall?","listText":"Tick tock, to big to fall?","text":"Tick tock, to big to fall?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863647931","repostId":"1142732764","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142732764","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1632388532,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142732764?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 17:15","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Real estate stocks lead Hong Kong shares higher on Evergrande assurances","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142732764","media":"Reuters","summary":"Sept 23 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares closed higher on Thursday, with assurances from debt-laden deve","content":"<p>Sept 23 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares closed higher on Thursday, with assurances from debt-laden developer China Evergrande Group lifting real estate stocks as markets resumed trade after a holiday.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index rose 1.2%, to 24,510.98, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.1%, to 8,733.73.</p>\n<p>China Evergrande soared as much as 30% in morning trading and ended up 17.6%.</p>\n<p>Evergrande said it held an internal meeting late on Wednesday night, urging company executives to ensure the quality delivery of properties and redemption of wealth management products.</p>\n<p>Evergrande said it had “resolved” one coupon payment due on Thursday but didn’t give more details, leaving it unclear what this means for $83.5 million in dollar bond interest payments due on the day.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index surged 8.1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index was up 4.6%.</p>\n<p>Property management services provider Country Garden Services Holdings jumped 12.7%, the biggest daily gainer on the Hang Seng Index.</p>\n<p>Given the high cash level in the offshore market and solid inflows, sentiment should gradually recover from the lows after the Evergrande noise dies down, and policy may see some easing as well, Nomura said in a note.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.9%. Tech giants Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 5.2% and 2.9%, respectively.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Group declined 0.2% after it said the company had begun to send its consumer credit data to a database run by China’s central bank.</p>\n<p>A sub-index tracking energy stocks gained 2.5%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real estate stocks lead Hong Kong shares higher on Evergrande assurances</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal estate stocks lead Hong Kong shares higher on Evergrande assurances\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-23 17:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sept 23 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares closed higher on Thursday, with assurances from debt-laden developer China Evergrande Group lifting real estate stocks as markets resumed trade after a holiday.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index rose 1.2%, to 24,510.98, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.1%, to 8,733.73.</p>\n<p>China Evergrande soared as much as 30% in morning trading and ended up 17.6%.</p>\n<p>Evergrande said it held an internal meeting late on Wednesday night, urging company executives to ensure the quality delivery of properties and redemption of wealth management products.</p>\n<p>Evergrande said it had “resolved” one coupon payment due on Thursday but didn’t give more details, leaving it unclear what this means for $83.5 million in dollar bond interest payments due on the day.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index surged 8.1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index was up 4.6%.</p>\n<p>Property management services provider Country Garden Services Holdings jumped 12.7%, the biggest daily gainer on the Hang Seng Index.</p>\n<p>Given the high cash level in the offshore market and solid inflows, sentiment should gradually recover from the lows after the Evergrande noise dies down, and policy may see some easing as well, Nomura said in a note.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.9%. Tech giants Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 5.2% and 2.9%, respectively.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Group declined 0.2% after it said the company had begun to send its consumer credit data to a database run by China’s central bank.</p>\n<p>A sub-index tracking energy stocks gained 2.5%.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142732764","content_text":"Sept 23 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares closed higher on Thursday, with assurances from debt-laden developer China Evergrande Group lifting real estate stocks as markets resumed trade after a holiday.\nThe Hang Seng index rose 1.2%, to 24,510.98, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.1%, to 8,733.73.\nChina Evergrande soared as much as 30% in morning trading and ended up 17.6%.\nEvergrande said it held an internal meeting late on Wednesday night, urging company executives to ensure the quality delivery of properties and redemption of wealth management products.\nEvergrande said it had “resolved” one coupon payment due on Thursday but didn’t give more details, leaving it unclear what this means for $83.5 million in dollar bond interest payments due on the day.\nThe Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index surged 8.1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index was up 4.6%.\nProperty management services provider Country Garden Services Holdings jumped 12.7%, the biggest daily gainer on the Hang Seng Index.\nGiven the high cash level in the offshore market and solid inflows, sentiment should gradually recover from the lows after the Evergrande noise dies down, and policy may see some easing as well, Nomura said in a note.\nThe Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.9%. Tech giants Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 5.2% and 2.9%, respectively.\nAlibaba Group declined 0.2% after it said the company had begun to send its consumer credit data to a database run by China’s central bank.\nA sub-index tracking energy stocks gained 2.5%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810744155,"gmtCreate":1630019754077,"gmtModify":1676530199558,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What goes must go down eventually… but when?","listText":"What goes must go down eventually… but when?","text":"What goes must go down eventually… but when?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810744155","repostId":"2162057566","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162057566","pubTimestamp":1629961583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162057566?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-26 15:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 will keep going up this fall — for these 9 reasons","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162057566","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Despite chatter of a stock-market top, there is no proof a correction is ‘overdue’\nGETTY IMAGES\nTher","content":"<p>Despite chatter of a stock-market top, there is no proof a correction is ‘overdue’</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365930d049715a4e419b13d73249376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>There are plenty of absurd arguments that investors make to justify their positions. But one that is particularly maddening to me is the notion that the stock market can ever be “ready” for a correction.</p>\n<p>Not only is there an abundance of research that proves the folly of market timing to avoid downturns, but such statements seem to indicate you can easily predict market moves in general — and all you have to do is identify the forecast and you can ensure you’re early rather than late to a trend.</p>\n<p>As we all know, particularly after the remarkable COVID-19 disruptions and equally remarkable snap-back rally, there are never any certainties on Wall Street. So before you stick a fork in the current rally and write it off as overdone, here are plenty of reasons to stay fully invested — and to expect the current rally for stocks to keep rolling through year-end.</p>\n<p><b>Strong momentum for stocks:</b>In case you missed it, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has just notched its&nbsp;fastest doubling&nbsp;in history as it has surged from lows of around 2,240 on March 23 to around 4,500 in August. It also already has set 50 closing records this year. This kind of record-breaking momentum clearly can’t last forever, but it is important not to conflate this strong performance with the assumption a correction is “overdue.” Generally speaking, stocks tend to move higher simply because they’re moving higher — not suddenly crash out of the blue.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings remain impressive:</b>Companies across the S&amp;P 500 have beat estimates by an average of&nbsp;more than 19%&nbsp;in the last five quarters. This has fueled a lot of the gains we’ve seen for stocks. Take tech darling Nvidia,which just popped about 14% in a week on a&nbsp;strong earnings beat, or sporting retailer Dick’s Sporting Goods,which surged about&nbsp;20%&nbsp;in a single session after its strong report this week. Sentiment and technical indicators aside, it’s hard to argue that there’s not true improvement in fundamentals behind this recent run for stocks.</p>\n<p><b>Fed tapering fears abate:</b>One of the bearish arguments some investors have had in 2021 is that the U.S. Federal Reserve is&nbsp;considering tapering&nbsp;stimulus efforts that include $120 billion in monthly bond purchases by the central bank, among other things. However,most reports&nbsp;indicate any such stimulus drawdown will not occur in the near term — perhaps not until November at the earliest. That may sound like bad news for those who are more hawkish on monetary policy, but it is undeniable good news for near-term market dynamics.</p>\n<p><b>Wall Street remains bullish:</b>According to&nbsp;recent data, roughly 56% of analyst recommendations on S&amp;P 500 stocks are “buy” or equivalent. That’s the most since 2002 and a sign that there is continued upside for the stock market even after an already impressive run. There’s no guarantee that the so-called “smart-money” is correct, of course, but it’s an important indicator nevertheless.</p>\n<p><b>Housing market “wealth effect”:</b>Generally speaking, the typical American doesn’t have the majority of its wealth tied up in stocks. Rather,their home&nbsp;represents as much as two-thirds of their total assets — and as a result, their general perceptions of the economy and the investing environment tend to be colored by real estate more than anything else. That’s particularly good news in 2021 as housing prices continue to surge; in July, median home prices were up an impressive&nbsp;18.4%&nbsp;over the prior year. That “wealth affect” can will go a long way toward supporting spending and investment sentiment in the months ahead.</p>\n<p><b>Core inflation vs. food and energy:</b>It’s important to acknowledge that the chatter about inflation risks in 2021 often don’t include the full story. In July, the year-on-year inflation rate in the U.S. remained at a 20-year high of 5.4%, but when you skip food and energy prices that are historically quite volatile, the “core” monthly rate of inflation was just&nbsp;0.3% in July&nbsp;— which isn’t just modest but below expectations of a 0.4% gain.</p>\n<p><b>Bigger picture, inflation doesn’t equal a bear market anyway:</b>It’s also worth pointing out there is little direct correlation between relatively high inflation and relative low rates of returns for U.S. stocks. Take 2011, when headline inflation threatened to hit a&nbsp;4% rate&nbsp;(again, driven largely by food and energy) and some investors feared that would upend the recovery from the 2008-2009 financial crisis. There was assuredly volatility that year, but stocks hung tough. The S&amp;P 500 moved a few percentage points higher on the year — then gained nearly 15% in 2012 the following year.</p>\n<p><b>What’s the alternative now?:</b>Despite inflationary talk, hard assets like gold haven’t been that great of a bet for investors looking to grow their nest egg. SPDR Gold Shares,the most liquid physical gold-backed fund out there, is actually in the red over the lasts 12 months and down about 5% from its May peak. And lest you think the bond market is safe, major bond fund iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF&nbsp;is actually down 10% in the last year — even as yields have rolled back from their spring highs. Gold or bonds may be nice hedges or insurance policies, but where else other than stocks can investors actually access growth on Wall Street right now?</p>\n<p><b>Most investors should ignore short-term trends anyhow:</b>All of the above is based on the most recent headlines and trends. But for most investors, it pays to ignore those trends and stick with a long-term plan. According to&nbsp;Goldman Sachs research, stock market returns have averaged&nbsp;9.2%&nbsp;per over the past 140 years. Sure, there are always a few extra bad years along the way — but if you stay invested long enough, you’re almost certain to come out significantly ahead. Keep that in mind before you try to time the next potential bear market because of short-term volatility fears.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 will keep going up this fall — for these 9 reasons</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 will keep going up this fall — for these 9 reasons\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-26 15:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-will-keep-going-up-this-fall-for-these-9-reasons-11629911414?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Despite chatter of a stock-market top, there is no proof a correction is ‘overdue’\nGETTY IMAGES\nThere are plenty of absurd arguments that investors make to justify their positions. But one that is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-will-keep-going-up-this-fall-for-these-9-reasons-11629911414?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-will-keep-going-up-this-fall-for-these-9-reasons-11629911414?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162057566","content_text":"Despite chatter of a stock-market top, there is no proof a correction is ‘overdue’\nGETTY IMAGES\nThere are plenty of absurd arguments that investors make to justify their positions. But one that is particularly maddening to me is the notion that the stock market can ever be “ready” for a correction.\nNot only is there an abundance of research that proves the folly of market timing to avoid downturns, but such statements seem to indicate you can easily predict market moves in general — and all you have to do is identify the forecast and you can ensure you’re early rather than late to a trend.\nAs we all know, particularly after the remarkable COVID-19 disruptions and equally remarkable snap-back rally, there are never any certainties on Wall Street. So before you stick a fork in the current rally and write it off as overdone, here are plenty of reasons to stay fully invested — and to expect the current rally for stocks to keep rolling through year-end.\nStrong momentum for stocks:In case you missed it, the S&P 500 index has just notched its fastest doubling in history as it has surged from lows of around 2,240 on March 23 to around 4,500 in August. It also already has set 50 closing records this year. This kind of record-breaking momentum clearly can’t last forever, but it is important not to conflate this strong performance with the assumption a correction is “overdue.” Generally speaking, stocks tend to move higher simply because they’re moving higher — not suddenly crash out of the blue.\nEarnings remain impressive:Companies across the S&P 500 have beat estimates by an average of more than 19% in the last five quarters. This has fueled a lot of the gains we’ve seen for stocks. Take tech darling Nvidia,which just popped about 14% in a week on a strong earnings beat, or sporting retailer Dick’s Sporting Goods,which surged about 20% in a single session after its strong report this week. Sentiment and technical indicators aside, it’s hard to argue that there’s not true improvement in fundamentals behind this recent run for stocks.\nFed tapering fears abate:One of the bearish arguments some investors have had in 2021 is that the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering tapering stimulus efforts that include $120 billion in monthly bond purchases by the central bank, among other things. However,most reports indicate any such stimulus drawdown will not occur in the near term — perhaps not until November at the earliest. That may sound like bad news for those who are more hawkish on monetary policy, but it is undeniable good news for near-term market dynamics.\nWall Street remains bullish:According to recent data, roughly 56% of analyst recommendations on S&P 500 stocks are “buy” or equivalent. That’s the most since 2002 and a sign that there is continued upside for the stock market even after an already impressive run. There’s no guarantee that the so-called “smart-money” is correct, of course, but it’s an important indicator nevertheless.\nHousing market “wealth effect”:Generally speaking, the typical American doesn’t have the majority of its wealth tied up in stocks. Rather,their home represents as much as two-thirds of their total assets — and as a result, their general perceptions of the economy and the investing environment tend to be colored by real estate more than anything else. That’s particularly good news in 2021 as housing prices continue to surge; in July, median home prices were up an impressive 18.4% over the prior year. That “wealth affect” can will go a long way toward supporting spending and investment sentiment in the months ahead.\nCore inflation vs. food and energy:It’s important to acknowledge that the chatter about inflation risks in 2021 often don’t include the full story. In July, the year-on-year inflation rate in the U.S. remained at a 20-year high of 5.4%, but when you skip food and energy prices that are historically quite volatile, the “core” monthly rate of inflation was just 0.3% in July — which isn’t just modest but below expectations of a 0.4% gain.\nBigger picture, inflation doesn’t equal a bear market anyway:It’s also worth pointing out there is little direct correlation between relatively high inflation and relative low rates of returns for U.S. stocks. Take 2011, when headline inflation threatened to hit a 4% rate (again, driven largely by food and energy) and some investors feared that would upend the recovery from the 2008-2009 financial crisis. There was assuredly volatility that year, but stocks hung tough. The S&P 500 moved a few percentage points higher on the year — then gained nearly 15% in 2012 the following year.\nWhat’s the alternative now?:Despite inflationary talk, hard assets like gold haven’t been that great of a bet for investors looking to grow their nest egg. SPDR Gold Shares,the most liquid physical gold-backed fund out there, is actually in the red over the lasts 12 months and down about 5% from its May peak. And lest you think the bond market is safe, major bond fund iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is actually down 10% in the last year — even as yields have rolled back from their spring highs. Gold or bonds may be nice hedges or insurance policies, but where else other than stocks can investors actually access growth on Wall Street right now?\nMost investors should ignore short-term trends anyhow:All of the above is based on the most recent headlines and trends. But for most investors, it pays to ignore those trends and stick with a long-term plan. According to Goldman Sachs research, stock market returns have averaged 9.2% per over the past 140 years. Sure, there are always a few extra bad years along the way — but if you stay invested long enough, you’re almost certain to come out significantly ahead. Keep that in mind before you try to time the next potential bear market because of short-term volatility fears.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963740746,"gmtCreate":1668771220686,"gmtModify":1676538111190,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm, here we go down...","listText":"Hmm, here we go down...","text":"Hmm, here we go down...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963740746","repostId":"1150409766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150409766","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668768142,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150409766?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 18:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Recalls About 30,000 Model X Cars Over Airbag Issue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150409766","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has recalled nearly 30,000 Model X cars over an issue that may cause the front pa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has recalled nearly 30,000 Model X cars over an issue that may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly, according to a company letter filed with the regulator.</p><p>Calibration of a restraint control module, or a set of sensors, may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly during some low speed crashes, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said in a letter dated Nov. 17.</p><p>The problem will be fixed through an over-the-air software update, the company said.</p><p>Earlier this month, the world&#39;s most valuable automakerrecalled over 40,000Model S and Model X vehicles due to the risk of experiencing a loss of power steering assist when driving on rough roads or after hitting a pothole.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Recalls About 30,000 Model X Cars Over Airbag Issue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Recalls About 30,000 Model X Cars Over Airbag Issue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has recalled nearly 30,000 Model X cars over an issue that may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly, according to a company letter filed with the regulator.</p><p>Calibration of a restraint control module, or a set of sensors, may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly during some low speed crashes, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said in a letter dated Nov. 17.</p><p>The problem will be fixed through an over-the-air software update, the company said.</p><p>Earlier this month, the world&#39;s most valuable automakerrecalled over 40,000Model S and Model X vehicles due to the risk of experiencing a loss of power steering assist when driving on rough roads or after hitting a pothole.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150409766","content_text":"Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has recalled nearly 30,000 Model X cars over an issue that may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly, according to a company letter filed with the regulator.Calibration of a restraint control module, or a set of sensors, may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly during some low speed crashes, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said in a letter dated Nov. 17.The problem will be fixed through an over-the-air software update, the company said.Earlier this month, the world's most valuable automakerrecalled over 40,000Model S and Model X vehicles due to the risk of experiencing a loss of power steering assist when driving on rough roads or after hitting a pothole.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988908989,"gmtCreate":1666650450341,"gmtModify":1676537782076,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not only Tesla...😬","listText":"Not only Tesla...😬","text":"Not only Tesla...😬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988908989","repostId":"2277265831","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277265831","pubTimestamp":1666598752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277265831?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277265831","media":"Barron's","summary":"Elon Musk says that Tesla could someday be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco, combined. First, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk says that Tesla could someday be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco, combined. First, it needs to get through the next few months.</p><p>Before Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported third-quarter earnings this past week, investors had been hoping they would allay concerns that had been growing since the company released second-quarter numbers three months earlier. They did no such thing. While earnings topped expectations, third-quarter deliveries, sales, and profit margins all fell short of Street projections. Tesla shares slumped 6.7% following the release, putting them down 22% since the end of September, their second-worst start to a quarter since the first few weeks of 2016.</p><p>But for all the bad news, Tesla sees massive growth in 2023, as new plants in Germany and Texas continue ramping up. Tesla’s long-term bets on batteries and new vehicles should also help it lower costs and boost sales, though it remains to be seen whether growth comes at the expense of profits.</p><p>What’s more, Tesla still plans to deliver at least 450,000 vehicles during the fourth quarter, a massive number that, if achieved, would likely make the concerns disappear. While giving up on Tesla, or at least its stock, might strike some investors as the path of least resistance, giving the shares another three months seems to be the smart thing to do.</p><p>The nervousness pervading Wall Street about Tesla is palpable. Since the electric-vehicle maker reported, the average analyst’s price target on its stock has slid more than 4%, to $287. Among the most pressing concerns: Gross automotive profits per car, excluding regulatory credits, have fallen from a record $15,700 in the first quarter to $14,700 in the second and $14,300 in the third from an average car price of $54,000.</p><p>Arresting that profit decline is important, but Tesla also wants to hit its goal of 50% average volume growth in 2024, and that likely means a new manufacturing plant and introducing a lower-priced model to expand its market and fend off growing EV competition. The worry is that Tesla might end up looking more like Toyota (TM), which earns about $4,400 selling cars that average about $30,000 each, than the highly profitable company it is now. “The margin compression story is a worry and feeds into the bear thesis on Tesla,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has an Outperform rating on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a934f344b6806a2e133fa93043ae69d\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>New vehicles, however, are the future of Tesla. On the company’s conference call, CEO Elon Musk said that a vehicle platform supporting a $30,000 compact EV is now the primary focus of his development team. That’s for good reason—more than half of the cars sold in the U.S., excluding trucks, sell for under $36,000. “The new Tesla $30,000 compact is a big deal that investors may be missing,” says Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black. “It dramatically expands Tesla’s addressable market.”</p><p>Also broadening that market, to a much lesser extent, is the much-delayed Cybertruck, set to hit roads in 2023—some 3.5 years after it was launched. It will have an estimated base price of $40,000 to $70,000, depending on configuration.</p><p>Other Tesla businesses are expanding, as well. Tesla’s energy-storage deployments hit 2,100 megawatt hours in the third quarter, up from 1,295 in the third quarter of 2021. And Tesla said it has tripled production of its larger-size battery cells, dubbed 4680s, though the introduction of those is still behind schedule. Significant 4680 output “was not as far off as I feared,” says Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, who notes that these batteries will help drive down product costs and improve vehicle performance.</p><p>Most important, while Tesla acknowledged that it won’t be able to deliver the 500,000 vehicles during the fourth quarter needed to hit 50% growth in 2022, guidance from CFO Zachary Kirkhorn implies that its fourth-quarter deliveries should top at least 450,000. That exceeds Wall Street projections and would be a quarterly record by some 100,000 units.</p><p>A number in that range would make 50% volume growth in 2023 look feasible. It would also signal that margins are set to improve because efficiency and production speeds in Texas and Germany are rising, boosting the potential profit on each vehicle produced. “Short term, investors may focus on [margins] and demand being a little harder,” wrote RBC analyst Joseph Spak in a report following earnings. “However, midterm, we aren’t too worried about demand [and] see [a] path back to 30% [gross margin].”</p><p>But first, Tesla has to get through the next week. Musk is likely to complete his purchase of Twitter (TWTR) before Oct. 28—if the U.S. government doesn’t block the deal—for $54.20 a share, something that would necessitate his selling $5 billion to $10 billion in Tesla stock to help fund the purchase.</p><p>Investors don’t want to buy Tesla shares ahead of the large sale, which perhaps explains some of the stock’s recent weakness. With the deal set to close, Musk’s sales should be done soon. If the stock fails to hold around $200 through that sale, the downside risk is immense, says 22V managing director John Roque. “A break of $200 will suggest risk to $100,” he says.</p><p>In all, a lot will be clearer in three months. If Tesla pulls through, that could be a good time for investors to pounce.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 16:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-elon-musk-twitter-51666389541?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk says that Tesla could someday be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco, combined. First, it needs to get through the next few months.Before Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported third-quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-elon-musk-twitter-51666389541?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-elon-musk-twitter-51666389541?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277265831","content_text":"Elon Musk says that Tesla could someday be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco, combined. First, it needs to get through the next few months.Before Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported third-quarter earnings this past week, investors had been hoping they would allay concerns that had been growing since the company released second-quarter numbers three months earlier. They did no such thing. While earnings topped expectations, third-quarter deliveries, sales, and profit margins all fell short of Street projections. Tesla shares slumped 6.7% following the release, putting them down 22% since the end of September, their second-worst start to a quarter since the first few weeks of 2016.But for all the bad news, Tesla sees massive growth in 2023, as new plants in Germany and Texas continue ramping up. Tesla’s long-term bets on batteries and new vehicles should also help it lower costs and boost sales, though it remains to be seen whether growth comes at the expense of profits.What’s more, Tesla still plans to deliver at least 450,000 vehicles during the fourth quarter, a massive number that, if achieved, would likely make the concerns disappear. While giving up on Tesla, or at least its stock, might strike some investors as the path of least resistance, giving the shares another three months seems to be the smart thing to do.The nervousness pervading Wall Street about Tesla is palpable. Since the electric-vehicle maker reported, the average analyst’s price target on its stock has slid more than 4%, to $287. Among the most pressing concerns: Gross automotive profits per car, excluding regulatory credits, have fallen from a record $15,700 in the first quarter to $14,700 in the second and $14,300 in the third from an average car price of $54,000.Arresting that profit decline is important, but Tesla also wants to hit its goal of 50% average volume growth in 2024, and that likely means a new manufacturing plant and introducing a lower-priced model to expand its market and fend off growing EV competition. The worry is that Tesla might end up looking more like Toyota (TM), which earns about $4,400 selling cars that average about $30,000 each, than the highly profitable company it is now. “The margin compression story is a worry and feeds into the bear thesis on Tesla,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has an Outperform rating on the stock.New vehicles, however, are the future of Tesla. On the company’s conference call, CEO Elon Musk said that a vehicle platform supporting a $30,000 compact EV is now the primary focus of his development team. That’s for good reason—more than half of the cars sold in the U.S., excluding trucks, sell for under $36,000. “The new Tesla $30,000 compact is a big deal that investors may be missing,” says Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black. “It dramatically expands Tesla’s addressable market.”Also broadening that market, to a much lesser extent, is the much-delayed Cybertruck, set to hit roads in 2023—some 3.5 years after it was launched. It will have an estimated base price of $40,000 to $70,000, depending on configuration.Other Tesla businesses are expanding, as well. Tesla’s energy-storage deployments hit 2,100 megawatt hours in the third quarter, up from 1,295 in the third quarter of 2021. And Tesla said it has tripled production of its larger-size battery cells, dubbed 4680s, though the introduction of those is still behind schedule. Significant 4680 output “was not as far off as I feared,” says Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, who notes that these batteries will help drive down product costs and improve vehicle performance.Most important, while Tesla acknowledged that it won’t be able to deliver the 500,000 vehicles during the fourth quarter needed to hit 50% growth in 2022, guidance from CFO Zachary Kirkhorn implies that its fourth-quarter deliveries should top at least 450,000. That exceeds Wall Street projections and would be a quarterly record by some 100,000 units.A number in that range would make 50% volume growth in 2023 look feasible. It would also signal that margins are set to improve because efficiency and production speeds in Texas and Germany are rising, boosting the potential profit on each vehicle produced. “Short term, investors may focus on [margins] and demand being a little harder,” wrote RBC analyst Joseph Spak in a report following earnings. “However, midterm, we aren’t too worried about demand [and] see [a] path back to 30% [gross margin].”But first, Tesla has to get through the next week. Musk is likely to complete his purchase of Twitter (TWTR) before Oct. 28—if the U.S. government doesn’t block the deal—for $54.20 a share, something that would necessitate his selling $5 billion to $10 billion in Tesla stock to help fund the purchase.Investors don’t want to buy Tesla shares ahead of the large sale, which perhaps explains some of the stock’s recent weakness. With the deal set to close, Musk’s sales should be done soon. If the stock fails to hold around $200 through that sale, the downside risk is immense, says 22V managing director John Roque. “A break of $200 will suggest risk to $100,” he says.In all, a lot will be clearer in three months. If Tesla pulls through, that could be a good time for investors to pounce.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834993173,"gmtCreate":1629765350692,"gmtModify":1676530122973,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s see how the Asia markets will response&nbsp;","listText":"Let’s see how the Asia markets will response&nbsp;","text":"Let’s see how the Asia markets will response","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834993173","repostId":"2161577712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161577712","pubTimestamp":1629762000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161577712?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After-Hours Stock Mover: Cara Therapeutics,Theravance Biopharma,Flexsteel and more","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161577712","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"After-Hours Stock Movers:\nCara Therapeutics 27% HIGHER; Cara Therapeutics and Vifor Pharma today ann","content":"<p>After-Hours Stock Movers:</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CARA\">Cara Therapeutics</a> 27% HIGHER; Cara Therapeutics and Vifor Pharma today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved KORSUVA (difelikefalin) for injection for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pruritus associated with chronic kidney disease in adults undergoing hemodialysis .</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TBPH\">Theravance Biopharma</a> 22% LOWER; Announced top-line results from its Phase 2b dose-finding induction study of izencitinib, an orally administered, gut-selective pan-Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor in development for the treatment of ulcerative colitis. The study did not meet its primary endpoint of change in the total Mayo score or the key secondary endpoint of clinical remission at week 8, relative to placebo. There was a small dose-dependent increase in clinical response measured by the adapted Mayo score, which was driven by a reduction in rectal bleeding.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> (NYSE: PANW) 10.1% HIGHER; reported Q4 EPS of $1.60, $0.16 better than the analyst estimate of $1.44. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.2 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.17 billion. Palo Alto Networks sees Q1 2022 EPS of $1.55-$1.58, versus the consensus of $1.60. Palo Alto Networks sees Q1 2022 revenue of $1.19-1.21 billion, versus the consensus of $1.15 billion. Palo Alto Networks sees FY2022 EPS of $7.15-$7.25, versus the consensus of $7.09. Palo Alto Networks sees FY2022 revenue of $5.275-5.325 billion, versus the consensus of $4.98 billion.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLXS\">Flexsteel</a> 6.8% HIGHER; reported Q4 EPS of $0.61. Revenue for the quarter came in at $136.2 million.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BXC\">BlueLinx</a> 6.6% HIGHER; announced today the termination of its at-the-market equity offering program (the ATM Offering) with Jefferies LLC (Jefferies) as sales agent. Also announced that its Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to $25 million of its outstanding shares of common stock in the open market.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWH\">Camping World Holdings Inc.</a> 5.3% HIGHER; declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, or $2 annualized. This is a 100% increase from the prior dividend of $0.25.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">Gevo</a> 4.5% HIGHER; Stifel initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $10.00.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARK\">Remark Media</a> 2.6% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of ($0.02), $0.01 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.03). Revenue for the quarter came in at $4 million versus the consensus estimate of $5.78 million.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOS\">Mosaic</a> 1% HIGHER; The Board of Directors has approved a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization, which replaces the previous authorization that had $700 million of the original $1.5 billion remaining.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After-Hours Stock Mover: Cara Therapeutics,Theravance Biopharma,Flexsteel and more</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter-Hours Stock Mover: Cara Therapeutics,Theravance Biopharma,Flexsteel and more\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18852924><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After-Hours Stock Movers:\nCara Therapeutics 27% HIGHER; Cara Therapeutics and Vifor Pharma today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved KORSUVA (difelikefalin) for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18852924\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GEVO":"Gevo Inc.","MARK":"Remark控股","TBPH":"Theravance Biopharma Inc.","CWH":"露营世界","BXC":"布鲁林克斯","CARA":"Cara Therapeutics, Inc.","FLXS":"弗莱克斯蒂尔工业","MOS":"美国美盛","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18852924","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161577712","content_text":"After-Hours Stock Movers:\nCara Therapeutics 27% HIGHER; Cara Therapeutics and Vifor Pharma today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved KORSUVA (difelikefalin) for injection for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pruritus associated with chronic kidney disease in adults undergoing hemodialysis .\nTheravance Biopharma 22% LOWER; Announced top-line results from its Phase 2b dose-finding induction study of izencitinib, an orally administered, gut-selective pan-Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor in development for the treatment of ulcerative colitis. The study did not meet its primary endpoint of change in the total Mayo score or the key secondary endpoint of clinical remission at week 8, relative to placebo. There was a small dose-dependent increase in clinical response measured by the adapted Mayo score, which was driven by a reduction in rectal bleeding.\nPalo Alto Networks (NYSE: PANW) 10.1% HIGHER; reported Q4 EPS of $1.60, $0.16 better than the analyst estimate of $1.44. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.2 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.17 billion. Palo Alto Networks sees Q1 2022 EPS of $1.55-$1.58, versus the consensus of $1.60. Palo Alto Networks sees Q1 2022 revenue of $1.19-1.21 billion, versus the consensus of $1.15 billion. Palo Alto Networks sees FY2022 EPS of $7.15-$7.25, versus the consensus of $7.09. Palo Alto Networks sees FY2022 revenue of $5.275-5.325 billion, versus the consensus of $4.98 billion.\nFlexsteel 6.8% HIGHER; reported Q4 EPS of $0.61. Revenue for the quarter came in at $136.2 million.\nBlueLinx 6.6% HIGHER; announced today the termination of its at-the-market equity offering program (the ATM Offering) with Jefferies LLC (Jefferies) as sales agent. Also announced that its Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to $25 million of its outstanding shares of common stock in the open market.\nCamping World Holdings Inc. 5.3% HIGHER; declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, or $2 annualized. This is a 100% increase from the prior dividend of $0.25.\nGevo 4.5% HIGHER; Stifel initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $10.00.\nRemark Media 2.6% LOWER; reported Q2 EPS of ($0.02), $0.01 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.03). Revenue for the quarter came in at $4 million versus the consensus estimate of $5.78 million.\nMosaic 1% HIGHER; The Board of Directors has approved a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization, which replaces the previous authorization that had $700 million of the original $1.5 billion remaining.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961840145,"gmtCreate":1668916276988,"gmtModify":1676538128117,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alphabet for sure!","listText":"Alphabet for sure!","text":"Alphabet for sure!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961840145","repostId":"2284785084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284785084","pubTimestamp":1668905591,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284785084?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-20 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284785084","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Alphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk profiles, while also offering massive opportunities to investors.</li><li>GOOG reported a superior performance over the past years, while both stocks may offer great opportunities for investors, the ability to achieve the targets and the optionality will be determinant.</li><li>Both companies share the same Achilles heel, in an industry that is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, while it also exposes their revenue stream to demand-driven fluctuations.</li><li>This article focuses on long-term investment opportunities based on in-depth fundamental analysis and I offer two valuation models structured around multiple outcome scenarios.</li></ul><p>The technology sector is among the worst performers in the past year, losing over 30% of its value. While many stocks may have been excessively hyped during the massive rebound out of the pandemic-lows, others have been under pressure because of rising inflation, a higher cost of capital, bottlenecks among the supply chains, as well as headwinds caused by pandemic-related restrictions, geo-political tensions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Companies in the Information technology services industry could perform better from a yearly perspective but lately have been struggling to rebound, while others, such as the semiconductor and the solar industries, have recently been leading the sector.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24926893763e4d5e2c2059c3a396961e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>finviz</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f119d5f53fe3121bf55f9c893934749\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>finviz</p><p>The two selected companies are two global giants in their industry, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) having nearly a monopoly in the online search field, as Google processes over 92% of online search volume worldwide, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:META) counting 3.71B monthly users in Q3 2022, among the company’s core products, Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, or Messenger, up 4% Year-over-Year [YoY].</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ecae9b7a6150d62e4e702446ea1b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using TIKR</p><p>While the two companies once were identified as a digital duopoly, because of their massive market share in global online advertising, more recently, companies such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Tencent (OTCX:OTCPK:TCEHY), or ByteDance through their social media TikTok, have penetrated the market and contributed to the erosion of this duopoly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba8cba90ad500702aed27aa4769d952\" tg-width=\"398\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from Insider Intelligence, Research and Markets, Company filings</p><p>The global IT Services market is projected to grow at a 9.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR] through 2031, while the global digital advertising market is forecasted to grow even faster at a 13.9% CAGR, reaching a size of $1.79T through 2031. The sustained market growth is driven by the broader penetration of internet users, technological advancement, rising spending in digital advertising, and the expanding popularity of mobile phones and digital media across the world, while platforms such as in-app, mobile ads, connected TV or social media advertising are increasingly important vectors in the industry.</p><h2><b>An in-depth company comparison</b></h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b292a512ca86202c0549254543bfb5\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>The financial comparison highlights the major relative strengths and weaknesses of the two giants. In terms of their Return on Invested Capital [ROIC], a very important metric I consider when pondering an investment decision, as a company must be able to consistently create value to be a sustainable investment, Alphabet seems to gradually increase its capital allocation efficiency over the past few years. Although Meta has been more efficient in the past, the metric has progressively dropped, until recently significantly falling under Alphabet’s level. The latter seems to have a more efficient core business, but Meta has seemingly more efficient cash management, observed in the relatively narrow spread between their ROIC and the Return on Capital Employed [ROCE], while Alphabet could significantly increase its capital allocation efficiency as the company reported a massive cash position of over $116B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa03acf041d1be505b4a32558b182c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Although Meta reports by far the higher gross margin, this metric’s growth is seemingly dropping from 21.94% CAGR in the past 5 years to 17.88% CAGR in the past 3 years. While Alphabet reported a lower actual value, the company saw this metric slightly increase from 19.38% CAGR to 20.72% CAGR, over the same time window. Meta’s main source of revenue began faltering as the widely popular video app TikTok massively increased its audience, and other companies increased their market share in the online advertising space, while Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shift to a strict app tracking transparency privacy policy, requiring the user’s approval for apps to be able to track their data, had an estimated two-digit billion impact on Meta’s revenue. On the operational side, the companies have an even more divergent profile, as Alphabet demonstrated being capable of significantly increasing its operational profitability from 22.13% CAGR in the past 5 years, to 29.80% CAGR over the past 3 years, while Meta’s operating margin growth is decelerating from 11.96% CAGR to 7.03% CAGR over the same period. Meta is massively investing in the development of the Metaverse while rising doubts emerge concerning the company’s ability to reach its ambitious goals in a concept that only a few people understand, while at the same time the company struggles with a weakening advertising business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1f88c88d16069afac3b3d995567a30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Meta reportedly has a more cash-rich business than the analyzed peer, while none of them is paying a dividend, both companies spend billions in share-repurchase programs. Alphabet announced its biggest share-buyback program of over $70B earlier this year, a major increase after the authorized buyback of $50B in 2021 and $25B in 2019. Meta has reportedly spent $91B to repurchase 377M stocks at an average price of $242, between 2017 and September 2022, a price that seems steep, considering that the actual share price is valued at -53% of that price. Meta also reports significantly higher EPS, while in those terms, Alphabet has had a less negative development over the most recent quarters and reported significantly higher growth over the past few years. Both companies are relying on debt for sustaining their business, increasing significantly their debt reliance since 2019, as the historically low-interest rates pushed many companies to consider more debt in their financing strategy. That said, both companies could repay the entirety of their debt exposure as shown in their net debt position and low leverage ratio.</p><h2>The stocks’ performance</h2><p>Considering both stocks’ performance in the past 5 years, GOOG reported a solid performance of 93.44%, while META performed significantly worse, losing 37.65% over the analyzed period. The most significant references show a mixed picture, with the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) returning approximately 53%, and the Nasdaq technology index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) marked over 85% performance, while more industry-focused references, such as the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLC\">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a> (XLC) performed flat, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is the strongest outperformer of the analyzed references.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b316e664d2e9457222c2ae8e80185d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using SeekingAlpha.com</p><p>While both stocks display periods of relative strength, GOOG reported massive resilience after every major drop, while META has significantly suffered after its All-Time-High [ATH] in September 2021, leading to massive value destruction for its investors, being priced at levels not seen since 2016. In the next section, I will show how the next few years are forecasted to play out for both companies and if the actual stock price may offer an interesting opportunity, while also assessing the possible risks in different scenarios.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>To determine the actual fair value for both company&#39;s stock prices, I rely on the following Discounted Cash Flow [DCF] model, which extends over a forecast period of 5 years with 3 different sets of assumptions ranging from a more conservative to a more optimistic scenario, based on the metrics determining the WACC and the terminal value. As forecasted by the street consensus, Alphabet is anticipated to generate a massive 17.27% Free Cash Flow [FCF] CAGR over the coming 5 years, with its operating and net profitability increasing at respectively 12.73% and 13.80% CAGR, while its revenue is projected to expand at solid 10.98%, above the expected growth in the relevant industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f307c189819f83e89ac5301f675e985\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>The valuation takes into account a tighter monetary policy, which will undeniably be a reality in many economies worldwide in the coming years and lead to a higher weighted average cost of capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdac1fd157fda94ba58871ccb1c7b3f\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>I compute my opinion in terms of likelihood for the three different scenarios, and I, therefore, consider the stock to be significantly undervalued with a weighted average price target with about 54% upside potential at $152.</p><p>Meta is forecasted to expand slower, with its sales growing at 9.20% CAGR over the next 5 years, and its operating and net profit margins are expected to grow between 8.5% and 8.9%, in terms of FCF the company is anticipated to substantially increase its metric, with 17.61% CAGR through 2026.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cc9d6404157e698d23631783f3f4cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>I then consider the same three scenarios affected by the company’s fundamentals and by the exogenous factors.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c566b27f98414ced096c76621fbf9c00\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>Despite both stocks seemingly being undervalued, when considering the weighted average price target, the two modelizations suggest that GOOG may offer a higher expected return, while META’s expected performance is seen 50% higher than the latest closing price, or at about $167. Both modelizations emphasize the still substantial expected return, also in the less optimistic scenario.</p><p>Investors should consider that those forecasts are based on a relatively conservative assumption in terms of perpetual growth rates, higher discount rates, and the recent trend in increased interest rates, which reflects the actual situation and forecast possible scenarios. An inversion of this trend would change this perspective and value the company at a higher price.</p><h2>Outlook and Risk discussion</h2><p>With both companies having tremendous possibilities to expand their powerful product ecosystem, it’s quite difficult to estimate their relevant total addressable market [TAM], as both peers have shown to be able to significantly grow their business either organically or through strategic acquisitions. Alphabet and Meta own strong brands with Google ranked in the fourth position in Interbrand&#39;s Best Global Brands, while Facebook is ranked 17th. Google’s essentially monopolistic position in search engines, its gigantic database with no equal data-harvesting worldwide, and the dominant position in the smartphone industry with Android estimated to hold a share of 72% in the mobile operating systems’ market, while Apple is progressively gaining market shares, are only some of the company’s major strengths. Despite this, with approximately 80% of its revenue originating from income related to advertising, the company’s revenue model is highly exposed to demand fluctuations, and with a recession likely seen coming in major global economies, dropping consumer spending and cuts in expenses on advertising, will likely have a tangible negative effect on the company’s results. Privacy concerns and regulatory pressure, as well as data security, are also possible future threats to Alphabet, Meta, and their peers, as the biggest strength for the companies, the massive data collection, is the most damaging weakness for their users. Among Alphabet’s most promising opportunities I do like to underscore the company’s positioning in terms of Artificial Intelligence [AI], Machine Learning [ML], and cloud-based business, as well as its expansion into the wearable OS market, and the great diversification opportunities the company could access or create through its colossal financial strength.</p><p>Meta is building a strong product portfolio including WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, Oculus, Workplace, Portal, and Calibra to diversify from Facebook and create expanded opportunities in strong secular trends. With over 45% of the world’s population using Facebook or its family products, the company holds an extremely powerful and irreplaceable position. But with approximately 98% of revenue originating from advertising, Meta is even more exposed to demand-driven fluctuations than Alphabet, and since the company is massively investing and focusing its resources on developing its visionary Metaverse, the diversification opportunities are, at least for the moment, seemingly more limited than Alphabet’s. Facebook has been losing popularity after facing backlash over its negligence in protecting the user’s privacy, while negative publicity, allegations of racial basis, or the platform’s inability to control the spread of fake and misleading information, may have cast a shadow on the company’s once brighter outlook. Despite this, Meta faces many opportunities in terms of possible monetization of its platforms through paid services such as news subscriptions, peer-to-peer marketplaces, online dating apps, e-wallets, or the development of other hardware devices, while its existing technologies could also be integrated or connected with a variety of other applications, such as e-commerce, gaming, or expanded into the digital creators&#39; space, or by offering remote-work solutions. In terms of future-oriented secular growth vectors, Meta has extensive expertise in AI and ML, which the company could use to penetrate markets such as the technologies used for autonomous vehicles, where other competitors like Google, Amazon, and Apple are already massively investing.</p><p>Alphabet is rated with a Strong Buy rating from Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating since August 25, 2022, and holds the first two positions in the Interactive Media and Services industry through its two share classes.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b711fdd651560e12eb413b5c4321377\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SeekingAlpha.com</p><p>Meta has instead been qualified as a Hold position since the end of 2021 and is ranked 22 out of 62 in the relevant industry. Both companies are without seen excelling in terms of profitability, while growth and valuation seem to be less favorable factors in the actual uncertain market environment, with Meta also significantly suffering from the negative momentum in its more recent price action.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27a653d50c6e2a961374aeaa87c1171\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SeekingAlpha.com</p><h2>The Verdict: Which stock is the better buy?</h2><p>The two analyzed companies are two global leaders in the technology services industry, with their respective strengths and weaknesses, but also offering inherent opportunities with their correlated risks. From an investor&#39;s point of view, it’s important to consider the company’s ability to create value for its shareholders, while minimizing the risks. Past performance is not a guarantee for future results, and despite GOOG overall performing significantly better than META in the past few years, the latter is seemingly offering great opportunities ahead, and my rather conservative modelization hints at the significant undervaluation of both stocks. Both companies have strong financials and report high profitability, but Alphabet is seemingly on a better path, as the company reported an overall better trend and is expected to optimize its profitability even further, while also owning a massive idling cash position that offers incredibly many options, and could even further increase the company’s already superior capital allocation efficiency. </p><p>Meta’s huge bet on the Metaverse may lead to great success, but it also bears a major risk, in times when the company’s great dependency on advertising spending is under pressure. While both companies’ Achilles heel is seemingly their dependency on spending in digital advertising, Meta is more reliant on it than Alphabet, and may also have shown less intention to diversify its revenue streams, when compared to its colossal peers. </p><p>I consider both companies as being a buy position for long-term oriented investors, but overall in this comparative analysis, I chose Alphabet as my favorite stock pick, for its preeminent opportunities and lower risk profile, while seemingly also offering the greater potential in its stock performance, when considering all three forecasted scenarios.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 08:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559206-alphabet-vs-meta-platforms-which-stock-is-the-better-investment><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk profiles, while also offering massive opportunities to investors.GOOG reported a superior ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559206-alphabet-vs-meta-platforms-which-stock-is-the-better-investment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559206-alphabet-vs-meta-platforms-which-stock-is-the-better-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284785084","content_text":"SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk profiles, while also offering massive opportunities to investors.GOOG reported a superior performance over the past years, while both stocks may offer great opportunities for investors, the ability to achieve the targets and the optionality will be determinant.Both companies share the same Achilles heel, in an industry that is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, while it also exposes their revenue stream to demand-driven fluctuations.This article focuses on long-term investment opportunities based on in-depth fundamental analysis and I offer two valuation models structured around multiple outcome scenarios.The technology sector is among the worst performers in the past year, losing over 30% of its value. While many stocks may have been excessively hyped during the massive rebound out of the pandemic-lows, others have been under pressure because of rising inflation, a higher cost of capital, bottlenecks among the supply chains, as well as headwinds caused by pandemic-related restrictions, geo-political tensions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Companies in the Information technology services industry could perform better from a yearly perspective but lately have been struggling to rebound, while others, such as the semiconductor and the solar industries, have recently been leading the sector.finvizfinvizThe two selected companies are two global giants in their industry, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) having nearly a monopoly in the online search field, as Google processes over 92% of online search volume worldwide, and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:META) counting 3.71B monthly users in Q3 2022, among the company’s core products, Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, or Messenger, up 4% Year-over-Year [YoY].Author, using TIKRWhile the two companies once were identified as a digital duopoly, because of their massive market share in global online advertising, more recently, companies such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Tencent (OTCX:OTCPK:TCEHY), or ByteDance through their social media TikTok, have penetrated the market and contributed to the erosion of this duopoly.Author, using data from Insider Intelligence, Research and Markets, Company filingsThe global IT Services market is projected to grow at a 9.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR] through 2031, while the global digital advertising market is forecasted to grow even faster at a 13.9% CAGR, reaching a size of $1.79T through 2031. The sustained market growth is driven by the broader penetration of internet users, technological advancement, rising spending in digital advertising, and the expanding popularity of mobile phones and digital media across the world, while platforms such as in-app, mobile ads, connected TV or social media advertising are increasingly important vectors in the industry.An in-depth company comparisonAuthor, using data from S&P Capital IQThe financial comparison highlights the major relative strengths and weaknesses of the two giants. In terms of their Return on Invested Capital [ROIC], a very important metric I consider when pondering an investment decision, as a company must be able to consistently create value to be a sustainable investment, Alphabet seems to gradually increase its capital allocation efficiency over the past few years. Although Meta has been more efficient in the past, the metric has progressively dropped, until recently significantly falling under Alphabet’s level. The latter seems to have a more efficient core business, but Meta has seemingly more efficient cash management, observed in the relatively narrow spread between their ROIC and the Return on Capital Employed [ROCE], while Alphabet could significantly increase its capital allocation efficiency as the company reported a massive cash position of over $116B.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQAlthough Meta reports by far the higher gross margin, this metric’s growth is seemingly dropping from 21.94% CAGR in the past 5 years to 17.88% CAGR in the past 3 years. While Alphabet reported a lower actual value, the company saw this metric slightly increase from 19.38% CAGR to 20.72% CAGR, over the same time window. Meta’s main source of revenue began faltering as the widely popular video app TikTok massively increased its audience, and other companies increased their market share in the online advertising space, while Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shift to a strict app tracking transparency privacy policy, requiring the user’s approval for apps to be able to track their data, had an estimated two-digit billion impact on Meta’s revenue. On the operational side, the companies have an even more divergent profile, as Alphabet demonstrated being capable of significantly increasing its operational profitability from 22.13% CAGR in the past 5 years, to 29.80% CAGR over the past 3 years, while Meta’s operating margin growth is decelerating from 11.96% CAGR to 7.03% CAGR over the same period. Meta is massively investing in the development of the Metaverse while rising doubts emerge concerning the company’s ability to reach its ambitious goals in a concept that only a few people understand, while at the same time the company struggles with a weakening advertising business.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQMeta reportedly has a more cash-rich business than the analyzed peer, while none of them is paying a dividend, both companies spend billions in share-repurchase programs. Alphabet announced its biggest share-buyback program of over $70B earlier this year, a major increase after the authorized buyback of $50B in 2021 and $25B in 2019. Meta has reportedly spent $91B to repurchase 377M stocks at an average price of $242, between 2017 and September 2022, a price that seems steep, considering that the actual share price is valued at -53% of that price. Meta also reports significantly higher EPS, while in those terms, Alphabet has had a less negative development over the most recent quarters and reported significantly higher growth over the past few years. Both companies are relying on debt for sustaining their business, increasing significantly their debt reliance since 2019, as the historically low-interest rates pushed many companies to consider more debt in their financing strategy. That said, both companies could repay the entirety of their debt exposure as shown in their net debt position and low leverage ratio.The stocks’ performanceConsidering both stocks’ performance in the past 5 years, GOOG reported a solid performance of 93.44%, while META performed significantly worse, losing 37.65% over the analyzed period. The most significant references show a mixed picture, with the S&P 500 (SP500) returning approximately 53%, and the Nasdaq technology index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) marked over 85% performance, while more industry-focused references, such as the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) performed flat, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is the strongest outperformer of the analyzed references.Author, using SeekingAlpha.comWhile both stocks display periods of relative strength, GOOG reported massive resilience after every major drop, while META has significantly suffered after its All-Time-High [ATH] in September 2021, leading to massive value destruction for its investors, being priced at levels not seen since 2016. In the next section, I will show how the next few years are forecasted to play out for both companies and if the actual stock price may offer an interesting opportunity, while also assessing the possible risks in different scenarios.ValuationTo determine the actual fair value for both company's stock prices, I rely on the following Discounted Cash Flow [DCF] model, which extends over a forecast period of 5 years with 3 different sets of assumptions ranging from a more conservative to a more optimistic scenario, based on the metrics determining the WACC and the terminal value. As forecasted by the street consensus, Alphabet is anticipated to generate a massive 17.27% Free Cash Flow [FCF] CAGR over the coming 5 years, with its operating and net profitability increasing at respectively 12.73% and 13.80% CAGR, while its revenue is projected to expand at solid 10.98%, above the expected growth in the relevant industries.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQThe valuation takes into account a tighter monetary policy, which will undeniably be a reality in many economies worldwide in the coming years and lead to a higher weighted average cost of capital.AuthorI compute my opinion in terms of likelihood for the three different scenarios, and I, therefore, consider the stock to be significantly undervalued with a weighted average price target with about 54% upside potential at $152.Meta is forecasted to expand slower, with its sales growing at 9.20% CAGR over the next 5 years, and its operating and net profit margins are expected to grow between 8.5% and 8.9%, in terms of FCF the company is anticipated to substantially increase its metric, with 17.61% CAGR through 2026.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQI then consider the same three scenarios affected by the company’s fundamentals and by the exogenous factors.AuthorDespite both stocks seemingly being undervalued, when considering the weighted average price target, the two modelizations suggest that GOOG may offer a higher expected return, while META’s expected performance is seen 50% higher than the latest closing price, or at about $167. Both modelizations emphasize the still substantial expected return, also in the less optimistic scenario.Investors should consider that those forecasts are based on a relatively conservative assumption in terms of perpetual growth rates, higher discount rates, and the recent trend in increased interest rates, which reflects the actual situation and forecast possible scenarios. An inversion of this trend would change this perspective and value the company at a higher price.Outlook and Risk discussionWith both companies having tremendous possibilities to expand their powerful product ecosystem, it’s quite difficult to estimate their relevant total addressable market [TAM], as both peers have shown to be able to significantly grow their business either organically or through strategic acquisitions. Alphabet and Meta own strong brands with Google ranked in the fourth position in Interbrand's Best Global Brands, while Facebook is ranked 17th. Google’s essentially monopolistic position in search engines, its gigantic database with no equal data-harvesting worldwide, and the dominant position in the smartphone industry with Android estimated to hold a share of 72% in the mobile operating systems’ market, while Apple is progressively gaining market shares, are only some of the company’s major strengths. Despite this, with approximately 80% of its revenue originating from income related to advertising, the company’s revenue model is highly exposed to demand fluctuations, and with a recession likely seen coming in major global economies, dropping consumer spending and cuts in expenses on advertising, will likely have a tangible negative effect on the company’s results. Privacy concerns and regulatory pressure, as well as data security, are also possible future threats to Alphabet, Meta, and their peers, as the biggest strength for the companies, the massive data collection, is the most damaging weakness for their users. Among Alphabet’s most promising opportunities I do like to underscore the company’s positioning in terms of Artificial Intelligence [AI], Machine Learning [ML], and cloud-based business, as well as its expansion into the wearable OS market, and the great diversification opportunities the company could access or create through its colossal financial strength.Meta is building a strong product portfolio including WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, Oculus, Workplace, Portal, and Calibra to diversify from Facebook and create expanded opportunities in strong secular trends. With over 45% of the world’s population using Facebook or its family products, the company holds an extremely powerful and irreplaceable position. But with approximately 98% of revenue originating from advertising, Meta is even more exposed to demand-driven fluctuations than Alphabet, and since the company is massively investing and focusing its resources on developing its visionary Metaverse, the diversification opportunities are, at least for the moment, seemingly more limited than Alphabet’s. Facebook has been losing popularity after facing backlash over its negligence in protecting the user’s privacy, while negative publicity, allegations of racial basis, or the platform’s inability to control the spread of fake and misleading information, may have cast a shadow on the company’s once brighter outlook. Despite this, Meta faces many opportunities in terms of possible monetization of its platforms through paid services such as news subscriptions, peer-to-peer marketplaces, online dating apps, e-wallets, or the development of other hardware devices, while its existing technologies could also be integrated or connected with a variety of other applications, such as e-commerce, gaming, or expanded into the digital creators' space, or by offering remote-work solutions. In terms of future-oriented secular growth vectors, Meta has extensive expertise in AI and ML, which the company could use to penetrate markets such as the technologies used for autonomous vehicles, where other competitors like Google, Amazon, and Apple are already massively investing.Alphabet is rated with a Strong Buy rating from Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating since August 25, 2022, and holds the first two positions in the Interactive Media and Services industry through its two share classes.SeekingAlpha.comMeta has instead been qualified as a Hold position since the end of 2021 and is ranked 22 out of 62 in the relevant industry. Both companies are without seen excelling in terms of profitability, while growth and valuation seem to be less favorable factors in the actual uncertain market environment, with Meta also significantly suffering from the negative momentum in its more recent price action.SeekingAlpha.comThe Verdict: Which stock is the better buy?The two analyzed companies are two global leaders in the technology services industry, with their respective strengths and weaknesses, but also offering inherent opportunities with their correlated risks. From an investor's point of view, it’s important to consider the company’s ability to create value for its shareholders, while minimizing the risks. Past performance is not a guarantee for future results, and despite GOOG overall performing significantly better than META in the past few years, the latter is seemingly offering great opportunities ahead, and my rather conservative modelization hints at the significant undervaluation of both stocks. Both companies have strong financials and report high profitability, but Alphabet is seemingly on a better path, as the company reported an overall better trend and is expected to optimize its profitability even further, while also owning a massive idling cash position that offers incredibly many options, and could even further increase the company’s already superior capital allocation efficiency. Meta’s huge bet on the Metaverse may lead to great success, but it also bears a major risk, in times when the company’s great dependency on advertising spending is under pressure. While both companies’ Achilles heel is seemingly their dependency on spending in digital advertising, Meta is more reliant on it than Alphabet, and may also have shown less intention to diversify its revenue streams, when compared to its colossal peers. I consider both companies as being a buy position for long-term oriented investors, but overall in this comparative analysis, I chose Alphabet as my favorite stock pick, for its preeminent opportunities and lower risk profile, while seemingly also offering the greater potential in its stock performance, when considering all three forecasted scenarios.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811353585,"gmtCreate":1630291327947,"gmtModify":1676530259026,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811353585","repostId":"1111636215","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111636215","pubTimestamp":1630280127,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111636215?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 07:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can a hybrid work environment boost Zoom's FQ2 results?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111636215","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After reporting a strong FQ1, Zoom Video Communications is scheduled to announce FQ2 earnings result","content":"<p>After reporting a strong FQ1, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a> is scheduled to announce FQ2 earnings results on Monday, August 30th, after market close.</p>\n<p>The consensusEPS Estimate is $1.16(+26.1% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $990.27M (+49.2% Y/Y).</p>\n<p>Analysts expect free cash flow of $374.1M.</p>\n<p>Over the last 2 years, ZMhas beaten EPS estimates100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.</p>\n<p>Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 18&nbsp;upward revisions&nbsp;and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 16 upward revisions and 0 downward.</p>\n<p>Shares moved -0.14% on June 1, when Zoom reported a 191.4% Y/Y jump in revenue for $956.24M for FQ1,beating analysts' estimates by $48.07M. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.32, beating the consensus by $0.34. The number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in TTM revenue surged 160% Y/Y. At the time of its Q1 results announcement, Zoom guided <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> revenue between $985M and $990M and Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $1.14 and $1.15.</p>\n<p>A recent analysis by an SA contributor was very bullish on the stock for the long term, suggesting a large addressable market for the company to tapwith a likely need for remote communication software.</p>\n<p>On August 26, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> upgraded the Zoom's shares to overweight from equal-weight citing its stronger positioningheading into the second half of the year. However, the company was seeing lower-than-usual trading volume in the middle of the month,pulling shares down. Shares climbed earlier in August, benefitting from the possibility that many businesses will continue topush back plans for workers to return to the office.</p>\n<p>July too was a significant month for Zoom, which agreed to acquire cloud contact center provider <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVN\">Five9</a>(NASDAQ:FIVN)in an all-stock deal valuing the latter at ~$14.7B. Zoom also launched itsZoom Apps and Zoom Events serviceson July 21. In June, Zoom also signed an agreement to acquire real-time machine translation service providerKites for undisclosed terms.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can a hybrid work environment boost Zoom's FQ2 results?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan a hybrid work environment boost Zoom's FQ2 results?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-30 07:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3734957-can-a-hybrid-work-environment-boost-zooms-fq2-results><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After reporting a strong FQ1, Zoom Video Communications is scheduled to announce FQ2 earnings results on Monday, August 30th, after market close.\nThe consensusEPS Estimate is $1.16(+26.1% Y/Y) and the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3734957-can-a-hybrid-work-environment-boost-zooms-fq2-results\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3734957-can-a-hybrid-work-environment-boost-zooms-fq2-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1111636215","content_text":"After reporting a strong FQ1, Zoom Video Communications is scheduled to announce FQ2 earnings results on Monday, August 30th, after market close.\nThe consensusEPS Estimate is $1.16(+26.1% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $990.27M (+49.2% Y/Y).\nAnalysts expect free cash flow of $374.1M.\nOver the last 2 years, ZMhas beaten EPS estimates100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.\nOver the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 18 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 16 upward revisions and 0 downward.\nShares moved -0.14% on June 1, when Zoom reported a 191.4% Y/Y jump in revenue for $956.24M for FQ1,beating analysts' estimates by $48.07M. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.32, beating the consensus by $0.34. The number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in TTM revenue surged 160% Y/Y. At the time of its Q1 results announcement, Zoom guided Q2 revenue between $985M and $990M and Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $1.14 and $1.15.\nA recent analysis by an SA contributor was very bullish on the stock for the long term, suggesting a large addressable market for the company to tapwith a likely need for remote communication software.\nOn August 26, Morgan Stanley upgraded the Zoom's shares to overweight from equal-weight citing its stronger positioningheading into the second half of the year. However, the company was seeing lower-than-usual trading volume in the middle of the month,pulling shares down. Shares climbed earlier in August, benefitting from the possibility that many businesses will continue topush back plans for workers to return to the office.\nJuly too was a significant month for Zoom, which agreed to acquire cloud contact center provider Five9(NASDAQ:FIVN)in an all-stock deal valuing the latter at ~$14.7B. Zoom also launched itsZoom Apps and Zoom Events serviceson July 21. In June, Zoom also signed an agreement to acquire real-time machine translation service providerKites for undisclosed terms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4091849858397360","authorId":"4091849858397360","name":"Aaron133","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0c04dc94641fab2011fa1a607ce442c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4091849858397360","idStr":"4091849858397360"},"content":"I paid premium for zoom. Personally, I prefer virtual meeting and adapt to this new era. I think micrOsoft teams have lots to catch up in terms of connectivity as i face more lag and visual","text":"I paid premium for zoom. Personally, I prefer virtual meeting and adapt to this new era. I think micrOsoft teams have lots to catch up in terms of connectivity as i face more lag and visual","html":"I paid premium for zoom. Personally, I prefer virtual meeting and adapt to this new era. I think micrOsoft teams have lots to catch up in terms of connectivity as i face more lag and visual"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960906501,"gmtCreate":1668039989304,"gmtModify":1676538001855,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm, maybe just killed Twitter","listText":"Hmm, maybe just killed Twitter","text":"Hmm, maybe just killed Twitter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960906501","repostId":"2282866791","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2282866791","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668038540,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2282866791?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk Says He \"Killed\" New Official Label for Twitter Accounts -Tweet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2282866791","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nov 9 (Reuters) - Elon Musk said in a tweet on Wednesday that he \"killed\" the new official label for","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 9 (Reuters) - Elon Musk said in a tweet on Wednesday that he &#34;killed&#34; the new official label for Twitter accounts, on the same day that it began rolling out.</p><p>&#34;Please note that Twitter will do lots of dumb things in coming months,&#34; he tweeted. &#34;We will keep what works &amp; change what doesn’t.&#34;</p><p>Musk backtracked on the official label just a day after a product executive at the social media company announced it, leading to confusion about the difference between the label and Twitter&#39;s current blue check mark that signifies verified accounts.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk Says He \"Killed\" New Official Label for Twitter Accounts -Tweet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk Says He \"Killed\" New Official Label for Twitter Accounts -Tweet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-10 08:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 9 (Reuters) - Elon Musk said in a tweet on Wednesday that he &#34;killed&#34; the new official label for Twitter accounts, on the same day that it began rolling out.</p><p>&#34;Please note that Twitter will do lots of dumb things in coming months,&#34; he tweeted. &#34;We will keep what works &amp; change what doesn’t.&#34;</p><p>Musk backtracked on the official label just a day after a product executive at the social media company announced it, leading to confusion about the difference between the label and Twitter&#39;s current blue check mark that signifies verified accounts.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2282866791","content_text":"Nov 9 (Reuters) - Elon Musk said in a tweet on Wednesday that he \"killed\" the new official label for Twitter accounts, on the same day that it began rolling out.\"Please note that Twitter will do lots of dumb things in coming months,\" he tweeted. \"We will keep what works & change what doesn’t.\"Musk backtracked on the official label just a day after a product executive at the social media company announced it, leading to confusion about the difference between the label and Twitter's current blue check mark that signifies verified accounts.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990502082,"gmtCreate":1660362224148,"gmtModify":1676533459494,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Love it!","listText":"Love it!","text":"Love it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990502082","repostId":"1129150866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129150866","pubTimestamp":1660352614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129150866?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stock Market Bulls Are Cheering the S&P 500’s Close above 4,231","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129150866","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Many technical analysts pay attention to what’s known as the Fibonacci ratio, attributed to a 13th century Italian mathematician known as Leonardo “Fibonacci” of Pisa. It’s based on a sequence of whole numbers in which the sum of two adjacent numbers equals the next highest number (0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21…","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e150d7de731c2e2e0ebee4395029900d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The S&amp;P 500 index on Friday finished above a chart level that delivered a dose of encouragement to stock-market bulls arguing that the U.S. bear-market bottom is in, though technical analysts warned that it might not be a signal to go all in on equities.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 on Friday rose 1.7% to close at 4,280.15. The finish above 4,231 would mean the large-cap benchmark has recovered — or retraced — more than 50% of its fall from a Jan. 3 record finish at 4796.56.</p><p>“Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement and then gone on to make new cycle lows,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note earlier this month.</p><p>Stocks rose across the board Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 booking a fourth straight weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced more than 420 points, or 1.3%, on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%. The S&amp;P 500 attempted to complete the retracement in Thursday’s session, when it traded as high as 4,257.91, but gave up gains to end at 4,207.27.</p><p>Krinsky, in a Thursday update, had noted that an intraday breach of the level doesn’t cut it, but had cautioned that a close above 4,231 would still leave him cautious about the near-term outlook.</p><p>“Because the retracement is based on a closing basis, we would want to see a close above 4,231 to trigger that signal. Whether or not that happens, however, the tactical risk/reward looks poor to us here,” he wrote.</p><p>What’s so special about a 50% retracement? Many technical analysts pay attention to what’s known as the Fibonacci ratio, attributed to a 13th century Italian mathematician known as Leonardo “Fibonacci” of Pisa. It’s based on a sequence of whole numbers in which the sum of two adjacent numbers equals the next highest number (0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21…).</p><p>If a number in the sequence is divided by the next number, for example 8 divided by 13, the result is near 0.618, a ratio that’s been dubbed the Golden Mean due to its prevalence in nature in everything from seashells to ocean waves to proportions of the human body. Back on Wall Street, technical analysts see key retracement targets for a rally from a significant low to a significant peak at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, while retracements of 23.6% and 76.4% are seen as secondary targets.</p><p>The push above the 50% retracement level during Thursday’s recession may have contributed to a round of selling itself, said Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Friday note.</p><p>He observed that the retracement corresponded to a 65-day high for the S&amp;P 500, offering another indication of an improving trend in a bear market as it represents the highest level of the last rolling quarter. A 65-day high is often seen as a default signal for commodity trading advisers, not just in the S&amp;P 500 but in commodity, bond and forex markets as well.</p><p>“That level coincidentally corresponded with the 50% retracement level of the bear market,” he wrote. “In essence, it forced the hand of one group to cover shorts (CTAs) while simultaneously giving another group (Fibonacci followers) an excuse to sell” on Thursday.</p><p>Krinsky, meanwhile, cautioned that previous 50% retracements in 1974, 2004, and 2009 all saw decent shakeouts shortly after clearing that threshold.</p><p>“Further, as the market has cheered ‘peak inflation’, we are now seeing a quiet resurgence in many commodities, and bonds continue to weaken,” he wrote Thursday.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stock Market Bulls Are Cheering the S&P 500’s Close above 4,231</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stock Market Bulls Are Cheering the S&P 500’s Close above 4,231\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-13 09:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-are-obsessed-with-the-4-231-level-for-the-s-p-500-11660309355?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 index on Friday finished above a chart level that delivered a dose of encouragement to stock-market bulls arguing that the U.S. bear-market bottom is in, though technical analysts warned ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-are-obsessed-with-the-4-231-level-for-the-s-p-500-11660309355?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-are-obsessed-with-the-4-231-level-for-the-s-p-500-11660309355?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129150866","content_text":"The S&P 500 index on Friday finished above a chart level that delivered a dose of encouragement to stock-market bulls arguing that the U.S. bear-market bottom is in, though technical analysts warned that it might not be a signal to go all in on equities.The S&P 500 on Friday rose 1.7% to close at 4,280.15. The finish above 4,231 would mean the large-cap benchmark has recovered — or retraced — more than 50% of its fall from a Jan. 3 record finish at 4796.56.“Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement and then gone on to make new cycle lows,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note earlier this month.Stocks rose across the board Friday, with the S&P 500 booking a fourth straight weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced more than 420 points, or 1.3%, on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%. The S&P 500 attempted to complete the retracement in Thursday’s session, when it traded as high as 4,257.91, but gave up gains to end at 4,207.27.Krinsky, in a Thursday update, had noted that an intraday breach of the level doesn’t cut it, but had cautioned that a close above 4,231 would still leave him cautious about the near-term outlook.“Because the retracement is based on a closing basis, we would want to see a close above 4,231 to trigger that signal. Whether or not that happens, however, the tactical risk/reward looks poor to us here,” he wrote.What’s so special about a 50% retracement? Many technical analysts pay attention to what’s known as the Fibonacci ratio, attributed to a 13th century Italian mathematician known as Leonardo “Fibonacci” of Pisa. It’s based on a sequence of whole numbers in which the sum of two adjacent numbers equals the next highest number (0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21…).If a number in the sequence is divided by the next number, for example 8 divided by 13, the result is near 0.618, a ratio that’s been dubbed the Golden Mean due to its prevalence in nature in everything from seashells to ocean waves to proportions of the human body. Back on Wall Street, technical analysts see key retracement targets for a rally from a significant low to a significant peak at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, while retracements of 23.6% and 76.4% are seen as secondary targets.The push above the 50% retracement level during Thursday’s recession may have contributed to a round of selling itself, said Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Friday note.He observed that the retracement corresponded to a 65-day high for the S&P 500, offering another indication of an improving trend in a bear market as it represents the highest level of the last rolling quarter. A 65-day high is often seen as a default signal for commodity trading advisers, not just in the S&P 500 but in commodity, bond and forex markets as well.“That level coincidentally corresponded with the 50% retracement level of the bear market,” he wrote. “In essence, it forced the hand of one group to cover shorts (CTAs) while simultaneously giving another group (Fibonacci followers) an excuse to sell” on Thursday.Krinsky, meanwhile, cautioned that previous 50% retracements in 1974, 2004, and 2009 all saw decent shakeouts shortly after clearing that threshold.“Further, as the market has cheered ‘peak inflation’, we are now seeing a quiet resurgence in many commodities, and bonds continue to weaken,” he wrote Thursday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815452826,"gmtCreate":1630715545565,"gmtModify":1676530381681,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go tech!","listText":"Go tech!","text":"Go tech!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815452826","repostId":"2164803577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164803577","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630699233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2164803577?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-04 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech lifts Nasdaq to record close but Wall Street mixed on jobs report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164803577","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dismal August jobs report calms taper fears\nLeisure, retail employment disappoint; cruise liners slu","content":"<ul>\n <li>Dismal August jobs report calms taper fears</li>\n <li>Leisure, retail employment disappoint; cruise liners slump</li>\n <li>Banking stocks slide, shrug off jump in bond yields</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sept 3 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq closed Friday at a fresh record but Wall Street's main indexes headed into the Labor Day weekend in mixed fashion, reacting to a disappointing U.S. jobs report which raised fears about the pace of economic recovery but weakened the argument for near-term tapering.</p>\n<p>A majority of the 11 S&amp;P sectors ended lower, with the energy and financial indexes among those finishing in the red.</p>\n<p>Banking stocks, which generally perform better when bond yields are higher, dropped even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped following the report.</p>\n<p>\"The number's a big disappointment and it's clear the Delta variant had a negative impact on the labor economy this summer,\" said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.</p>\n<p>\"You can tell because leisure and hospitality didn't add any jobs and retail actually lost jobs. Investors will conclude that perhaps this will put the (Federal Reserve) further on hold in terms of the timing of tapering. Markets may be okay with that.\"</p>\n<p>Among the biggest decliners on the S&amp;P 500 were cruise ship operators, including Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Carnival Corp and Royal Caribbean Cruises , whose businesses are highly susceptible to consumer sentiment around travel and COVID-19.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq had scaled all-time highs over the past few weeks on support from robust corporate earnings, but investors have remained generally cautious as they watch economic indicators and the jump in U.S. infections to see how that might influence the Fed and its tapering plans.</p>\n<p>The labor market remains the key touchstone for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting last week that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start paring back its asset purchases.</p>\n<p>On Friday, the Labor Department's closely watched report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs in August, widely missing economists' estimate of 750,000. Payrolls had surged 1.05 million in July.</p>\n<p>Despite a number well outside the consensus estimate, the overall reaction of investors was muted, continuing a trend over the last year of a decoupling of significant S&amp;P movement in the wake of a wide miss on the payrolls report.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 74.47 points, or 0.21%, to 35,369.35, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.41 points, or 0.03%, to 4,535.54 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 32.34 points, or 0.21%, to 15,363.52.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq, registering a fifth daily gain in the last six sessions, was boosted by technology heavyweights, including Apple , Alphabet , and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>. Tech stocks tend to perform better in a low interest-rate environment.</p>\n<p>Chinese ride-hailing firm Didi Global gained after a media report that the city of Beijing was considering moves that would give state entities control of the company.</p>\n<p>Biotechnology firm Forte Biosciences slumped after its experimental treatment for eczema, a skin disease, failed to meet its main goal.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru and Stephen Culp and David French in New York; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Marguerita Choy)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech lifts Nasdaq to record close but Wall Street mixed on jobs report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech lifts Nasdaq to record close but Wall Street mixed on jobs report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-04 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>Dismal August jobs report calms taper fears</li>\n <li>Leisure, retail employment disappoint; cruise liners slump</li>\n <li>Banking stocks slide, shrug off jump in bond yields</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sept 3 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq closed Friday at a fresh record but Wall Street's main indexes headed into the Labor Day weekend in mixed fashion, reacting to a disappointing U.S. jobs report which raised fears about the pace of economic recovery but weakened the argument for near-term tapering.</p>\n<p>A majority of the 11 S&amp;P sectors ended lower, with the energy and financial indexes among those finishing in the red.</p>\n<p>Banking stocks, which generally perform better when bond yields are higher, dropped even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped following the report.</p>\n<p>\"The number's a big disappointment and it's clear the Delta variant had a negative impact on the labor economy this summer,\" said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.</p>\n<p>\"You can tell because leisure and hospitality didn't add any jobs and retail actually lost jobs. Investors will conclude that perhaps this will put the (Federal Reserve) further on hold in terms of the timing of tapering. Markets may be okay with that.\"</p>\n<p>Among the biggest decliners on the S&amp;P 500 were cruise ship operators, including Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Carnival Corp and Royal Caribbean Cruises , whose businesses are highly susceptible to consumer sentiment around travel and COVID-19.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq had scaled all-time highs over the past few weeks on support from robust corporate earnings, but investors have remained generally cautious as they watch economic indicators and the jump in U.S. infections to see how that might influence the Fed and its tapering plans.</p>\n<p>The labor market remains the key touchstone for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting last week that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start paring back its asset purchases.</p>\n<p>On Friday, the Labor Department's closely watched report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs in August, widely missing economists' estimate of 750,000. Payrolls had surged 1.05 million in July.</p>\n<p>Despite a number well outside the consensus estimate, the overall reaction of investors was muted, continuing a trend over the last year of a decoupling of significant S&amp;P movement in the wake of a wide miss on the payrolls report.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 74.47 points, or 0.21%, to 35,369.35, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.41 points, or 0.03%, to 4,535.54 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 32.34 points, or 0.21%, to 15,363.52.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq, registering a fifth daily gain in the last six sessions, was boosted by technology heavyweights, including Apple , Alphabet , and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>. Tech stocks tend to perform better in a low interest-rate environment.</p>\n<p>Chinese ride-hailing firm Didi Global gained after a media report that the city of Beijing was considering moves that would give state entities control of the company.</p>\n<p>Biotechnology firm Forte Biosciences slumped after its experimental treatment for eczema, a skin disease, failed to meet its main goal.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru and Stephen Culp and David French in New York; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Marguerita Choy)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164803577","content_text":"Dismal August jobs report calms taper fears\nLeisure, retail employment disappoint; cruise liners slump\nBanking stocks slide, shrug off jump in bond yields\n\nSept 3 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq closed Friday at a fresh record but Wall Street's main indexes headed into the Labor Day weekend in mixed fashion, reacting to a disappointing U.S. jobs report which raised fears about the pace of economic recovery but weakened the argument for near-term tapering.\nA majority of the 11 S&P sectors ended lower, with the energy and financial indexes among those finishing in the red.\nBanking stocks, which generally perform better when bond yields are higher, dropped even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped following the report.\n\"The number's a big disappointment and it's clear the Delta variant had a negative impact on the labor economy this summer,\" said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.\n\"You can tell because leisure and hospitality didn't add any jobs and retail actually lost jobs. Investors will conclude that perhaps this will put the (Federal Reserve) further on hold in terms of the timing of tapering. Markets may be okay with that.\"\nAmong the biggest decliners on the S&P 500 were cruise ship operators, including Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Carnival Corp and Royal Caribbean Cruises , whose businesses are highly susceptible to consumer sentiment around travel and COVID-19.\nThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had scaled all-time highs over the past few weeks on support from robust corporate earnings, but investors have remained generally cautious as they watch economic indicators and the jump in U.S. infections to see how that might influence the Fed and its tapering plans.\nThe labor market remains the key touchstone for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting last week that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start paring back its asset purchases.\nOn Friday, the Labor Department's closely watched report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs in August, widely missing economists' estimate of 750,000. Payrolls had surged 1.05 million in July.\nDespite a number well outside the consensus estimate, the overall reaction of investors was muted, continuing a trend over the last year of a decoupling of significant S&P movement in the wake of a wide miss on the payrolls report.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 74.47 points, or 0.21%, to 35,369.35, the S&P 500 lost 1.41 points, or 0.03%, to 4,535.54 and the Nasdaq Composite added 32.34 points, or 0.21%, to 15,363.52.\nThe Nasdaq, registering a fifth daily gain in the last six sessions, was boosted by technology heavyweights, including Apple , Alphabet , and Facebook. Tech stocks tend to perform better in a low interest-rate environment.\nChinese ride-hailing firm Didi Global gained after a media report that the city of Beijing was considering moves that would give state entities control of the company.\nBiotechnology firm Forte Biosciences slumped after its experimental treatment for eczema, a skin disease, failed to meet its main goal.\n(Reporting by Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru and Stephen Culp and David French in New York; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Marguerita Choy)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816931663,"gmtCreate":1630459467552,"gmtModify":1676530308556,"author":{"id":"4091790236379980","authorId":"4091790236379980","name":"Short","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92b8c225fd112fc08358c04f1f45b5bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091790236379980","idStr":"4091790236379980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom shiny days over?","listText":"Zoom shiny days over?","text":"Zoom shiny days over?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816931663","repostId":"1140744418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140744418","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630453472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140744418?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 07:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom shares record worst day in 9 months as searing growth tapers off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140744418","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Zoom Video Communications Inc shares tumbled nearly 17% on Tuesday, after the video conf","content":"<p>(Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a> Inc shares tumbled nearly 17% on Tuesday, after the video conferencing company signaled a faster-than-expected drop in demand and analysts questioned its future plans as people return to office.</p>\n<p>Zoom and other video conferencing services such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>’s Teams and Salesforce’s Slack raked in millions of new users as the pandemic forced people to work, study and communicate with friends and family remotely.</p>\n<p>With easing pandemic curbs, Zoom will need to find new avenues for growth. The company already made a $14.7 billion bet on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVN\">Five9</a> in July to bolster its contact center business.</p>\n<p>Analysts said it would take a few quarters for Zoom to return to its true underlying growth rate.</p>\n<p>“There are significant questions outstanding regarding how new customer demand and customer churn rates will stabilize in the core business following the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions,” analysts at Daiwa Capital wrote in a note.</p>\n<p>Zoom forecast current-quarter revenue between $1.015 billion and $1.020 billion on Monday, indicating a rise of about 31%, compared with multiple-fold growth rates in 2020.</p>\n<p>At least six brokerages cut their price targets on Zoom, according to Refinitiv data, with Piper Sandler being the most bearish - slashing its price target by over $100 to $369.</p>\n<p>Shares of the company fell by the most in more than nine months to close at $289.50 on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>The company’s shares rallied to stratospheric highs since February last year, with its valuation touching $175 billion in October. Since then, the shares have eased and Zoom’s current capitalization is half of the October peak.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed9fd29da7b0571bcaab2a6a62d2459\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom shares record worst day in 9 months as searing growth tapers off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom shares record worst day in 9 months as searing growth tapers off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-01 07:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a> Inc shares tumbled nearly 17% on Tuesday, after the video conferencing company signaled a faster-than-expected drop in demand and analysts questioned its future plans as people return to office.</p>\n<p>Zoom and other video conferencing services such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>’s Teams and Salesforce’s Slack raked in millions of new users as the pandemic forced people to work, study and communicate with friends and family remotely.</p>\n<p>With easing pandemic curbs, Zoom will need to find new avenues for growth. The company already made a $14.7 billion bet on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVN\">Five9</a> in July to bolster its contact center business.</p>\n<p>Analysts said it would take a few quarters for Zoom to return to its true underlying growth rate.</p>\n<p>“There are significant questions outstanding regarding how new customer demand and customer churn rates will stabilize in the core business following the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions,” analysts at Daiwa Capital wrote in a note.</p>\n<p>Zoom forecast current-quarter revenue between $1.015 billion and $1.020 billion on Monday, indicating a rise of about 31%, compared with multiple-fold growth rates in 2020.</p>\n<p>At least six brokerages cut their price targets on Zoom, according to Refinitiv data, with Piper Sandler being the most bearish - slashing its price target by over $100 to $369.</p>\n<p>Shares of the company fell by the most in more than nine months to close at $289.50 on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>The company’s shares rallied to stratospheric highs since February last year, with its valuation touching $175 billion in October. Since then, the shares have eased and Zoom’s current capitalization is half of the October peak.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed9fd29da7b0571bcaab2a6a62d2459\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140744418","content_text":"(Reuters) - Zoom Video Communications Inc shares tumbled nearly 17% on Tuesday, after the video conferencing company signaled a faster-than-expected drop in demand and analysts questioned its future plans as people return to office.\nZoom and other video conferencing services such as Cisco, Microsoft’s Teams and Salesforce’s Slack raked in millions of new users as the pandemic forced people to work, study and communicate with friends and family remotely.\nWith easing pandemic curbs, Zoom will need to find new avenues for growth. The company already made a $14.7 billion bet on Five9 in July to bolster its contact center business.\nAnalysts said it would take a few quarters for Zoom to return to its true underlying growth rate.\n“There are significant questions outstanding regarding how new customer demand and customer churn rates will stabilize in the core business following the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions,” analysts at Daiwa Capital wrote in a note.\nZoom forecast current-quarter revenue between $1.015 billion and $1.020 billion on Monday, indicating a rise of about 31%, compared with multiple-fold growth rates in 2020.\nAt least six brokerages cut their price targets on Zoom, according to Refinitiv data, with Piper Sandler being the most bearish - slashing its price target by over $100 to $369.\nShares of the company fell by the most in more than nine months to close at $289.50 on Tuesday.\nThe company’s shares rallied to stratospheric highs since February last year, with its valuation touching $175 billion in October. Since then, the shares have eased and Zoom’s current capitalization is half of the October peak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}