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HardHatt

HardHatt

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2022-11-30

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$

2022-09-18

Good advice

This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way

2022-09-16

Who to listen to?

JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy

2022-09-09

Good read

Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia

2022-09-07

Good advice

3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy

2022-09-06

Useful info

Tech Stocks: MATANA Is the New FAANG, Analyst Says

2022-09-01

Dark clouds ahead

Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications

2022-07-13

I believe

Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock

2022-05-23

Good advice

How To Invest In A Bear Market

2022-05-20

Ok won't eat the apple now

Apple: Be Careful, There's A Lot More Downside Risk

2022-05-20

Let the bear growls for a while

Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead

2022-05-16

Love the optimism

Investor Fear Around Meta Platforms Is Overblown

2022-05-10

At least not another doomsday prediction

Fed Can Cool Inflation This Year and Economic Growth Will Continue, Williams Says

2022-05-10

At least not another doomsday prediction.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-09

Hang in there

S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red

2022-05-09

Hang in there

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-04

Keep advancing, long AMD

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-30

Easy come, easy go

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-28

Delightful

Meta Shares Surge 18% After Facebook Ekes Out User Growth

2022-04-20

Sounding very pessimistic

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937743363","repostId":"1175700857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175700857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663468218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175700857?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175700857","media":"RealMoney","summary":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.</p><p>In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.</p><p>There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.</p><p>The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.</p><p><b>Buying Later Rather Than Early Is Better</b></p><p>In previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.</p><p>Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.</p><p>It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.</p><p>I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.</p><p>This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn&#39;t mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn&#39;t a great strategy if there isn&#39;t any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.</p><p>I highly recommend using the &#39;average in&#39; strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don&#39;t just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.</p><p>Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208><strong>RealMoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175700857","content_text":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.Buying Later Rather Than Early Is BetterIn previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937053532,"gmtCreate":1663329982627,"gmtModify":1676537253339,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who to listen to?","listText":"Who to listen to?","text":"Who to listen to?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937053532","repostId":"1166890805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166890805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663286370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166890805?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166890805","media":"The Street","summary":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.</p><p>Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.</p><p>But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.</p><p>“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.</p><p>“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”</p><p>U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.</p><p>And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.</p><h3>Tailwinds for Stocks</h3><p>“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.</p><p>That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”</p><p>Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.</p><p>“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.</p><p>“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.</p><p>They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.</p><h3>Dalio’s Take: Less Enthusiastic</h3><p>Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategists</p><p>Looking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.</p><p>Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.</p><p>The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 07:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166890805","content_text":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.Tailwinds for Stocks“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.Dalio’s Take: Less EnthusiasticMeanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategistsLooking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936325587,"gmtCreate":1662711419849,"gmtModify":1676537124878,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936325587","repostId":"2266975278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266975278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662702575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266975278?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266975278","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.</li><li>A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.</li><li>I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.</li><li>And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43af2347949d7465e29a052c5644fbab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>anilakkus/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I&#39;m aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df55b577ca5fe7b25afa4ea504d4e42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Total Return Price data by YCharts</span></p><p>It&#39;s difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.</p><p>I&#39;ve never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn&#39;t start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven&#39;t already.</p><p>I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I&#39;ll have a more receptive audience.</p><p><b>NVIDIA&#39;s Historical Earnings Cyclicality</b></p><p>The first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dbfbc9574d9792299940ce8ea40772\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FAST Graphs</span></p><p>The dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA&#39;s historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA&#39;s earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA&#39;s first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it&#39;s likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.</p><p>The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.</p><p>So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.</p><p><b>Versus NVIDIA Stock&#39;s Historical Price</b><b>Cyclicality</b></p><p>Next, I&#39;m going to examine NVIDIA&#39;s historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don&#39;t offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24bf78d94b27582d4a9e7a0650e3dd42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>As we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During &#34;normal&#34; recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it&#39;s pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56bde6e74ae15bca9ec655f8ea23769\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA&#39;s fantastic historical returns, the stock&#39;s price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.</p><p>One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA&#39;s stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems &#34;different this time&#34;.</p><p>Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.</p><p>I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn&#39;t count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)</p><p>Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)</p><p>My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks &#34;impairment tests&#34; and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.</p><p><b>Impairment Tests</b></p><p><b>Are revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019ded39c44c5f82baece6549d82195d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</span></p><p>This is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.</p><p><b>Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?</b></p><p>Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is &#34;hidden&#34; and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.</p><p>That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it&#39;s possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don&#39;t think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA&#39;s recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that&#39;s something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn&#39;t had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)</p><p>In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.</p><p><b>Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?</b></p><p>I think competition will always be a threat, so that&#39;s not really what I&#39;m after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA&#39;s business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I&#39;m still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I&#39;m not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.</p><p><b>Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?</b></p><p>If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I&#39;m truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.</p><p>I don&#39;t have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It&#39;s kind of an &#34;I&#39;ll know it when I see it&#34; sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36c6dc4e9a19065db7b57ea7f9538a1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>NVIDIA stock&#39;s historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don&#39;t think the answer is especially clear.</p><p>While I think it&#39;s fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA&#39;s highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I&#39;ve decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that&#39;s -70% off the highs. Here&#39;s why.</p><p>While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.</p><p>It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto&#39;s future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.</p><p><b>Is management corrupt or incompetent?</b></p><p>I haven&#39;t seen any signs this might be the case.</p><p><b>How is the company&#39;s debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7face715f66aef629b8d8918da508b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Usually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.</p><p><b>Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?</b></p><p>For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&amp;P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&amp;P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d541071dc74c8937c0d8782198ee25\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It&#39;s worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don&#39;t buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA&#39;s case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it&#39;s worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd34148e686b4d5fabc91d05ea92ff29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>An investor who bought after a -70% <i>still</i> would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.</p><p>Next, let&#39;s move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0bc789336b0c4591e8fe1b0da67692d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.</p><p>Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.</p><p><b>Additional Strategic Considerations</b></p><p>The way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it&#39;s likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don&#39;t have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.</p><p>Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it&#39;s worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that&#39;s a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I&#39;m sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.</p><p>Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today&#39;s price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as &#34;price targets&#34;, which imply that I&#39;m predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is <i>normal</i> for NVIDIA&#39;s stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn&#39;t tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.</p><p><i>This article was written by Cory Cramer </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266975278","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.anilakkus/iStock via Getty ImagesIntroduction1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I'm aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)NVDA Total Return Price data by YChartsIt's difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.I've never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn't start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven't already.I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I'll have a more receptive audience.NVIDIA's Historical Earnings CyclicalityThe first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.FAST GraphsThe dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA's historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA's earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA's first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it's likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.Versus NVIDIA Stock's Historical PriceCyclicalityNext, I'm going to examine NVIDIA's historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don't offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.NVDA data by YChartsAs we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During \"normal\" recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it's pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA's fantastic historical returns, the stock's price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA's stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems \"different this time\".Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn't count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks \"impairment tests\" and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.Impairment TestsAre revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsThis is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is \"hidden\" and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it's possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don't think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA's recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that's something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn't had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?I think competition will always be a threat, so that's not really what I'm after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA's business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I'm still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I'm not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I'm truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.I don't have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It's kind of an \"I'll know it when I see it\" sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.NVDA data by YChartsNVIDIA stock's historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don't think the answer is especially clear.While I think it's fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA's highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I've decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that's -70% off the highs. Here's why.While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto's future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.Is management corrupt or incompetent?I haven't seen any signs this might be the case.How is the company's debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YChartsUsually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It's worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don't buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA's case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it's worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.NVDA data by YChartsAn investor who bought after a -70% still would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.Next, let's move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.Additional Strategic ConsiderationsThe way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it's likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don't have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it's worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn't mean it's uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that's a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I'm sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today's price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as \"price targets\", which imply that I'm predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is normal for NVIDIA's stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn't tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.This article was written by Cory Cramer for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938029518,"gmtCreate":1662525189734,"gmtModify":1676537080710,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938029518","repostId":"2265838091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265838091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662512886,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265838091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-07 09:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265838091","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"His advice might give your portfolio a boost, too.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>There&#39;s a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it&#39;s not just because he&#39;s managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that&#39;s always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he is with advice.</p><p>Whether it&#39;s giving job-search tips to new college graduates or calming people&#39;s fears during a stock market crash, Buffett never seems short on words of wisdom. And through the years, I&#39;ve followed a lot of his tips in the course of building my portfolio. Here are a few specific pieces of advice that have served me well and are worth paying attention to.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F699313%2Fwoman-young-ish-laptop_gettyimages-1319103423.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. Look for quality, not a bargain</h2><p>Some stocks trade at a hefty price point, so much so that in the past, I&#39;ve balked at the idea of buying them. But one thing Buffett has always said is that it&#39;s important to focus on quality over price.</p><p>You might have the opportunity to buy shares of a given tech company at $200 apiece while another company&#39;s shares trade for $500 apiece. But the $200 stock isn&#39;t necessarily the better deal. And so it&#39;s better to focus on the businesses you&#39;re buying into than the prices they&#39;re trading at.</p><p>Incidentally, these days, many brokerages let you buy shares on a fractional basis. So if you&#39;re hesitant to spend a lot on a single share of stock, you don&#39;t have to.</p><h2>2. Hold stocks for a long time</h2><p>Buffett has famously said that if you&#39;re unwilling to hold a stock for 10 years, you shouldn&#39;t even own it for 10 minutes. And that&#39;s advice I&#39;ve followed since I started buying stocks.</p><p>Some people think they can strike it rich in the stock market by buying low and selling as quickly as possible. But I&#39;m a firm believer that the best approach is to load up on quality investments and hold them for many years so they can appreciate in value.</p><h2>3. Don&#39;t fall victim to peer pressure</h2><p>Years ago, meme stocks weren&#39;t a thing. Now, online influencers have the ability to drive stock prices upward or downward.</p><p>But ultimately, meme stocks are a risky bet, namely because the businesses behind them are often shaky and unreliable. And so rather than buy meme stocks because they&#39;re trendy, it&#39;s better to focus on quality businesses that are likely to stay strong for years.</p><p>The same holds true with crypto. Many people have invested in digital currencies over the past few years. But if you&#39;re not comfortable doing so because you think cryptocurrency is too speculative, put your money elsewhere. (Incidentally, Buffett is not a fan of crypto. At all.)</p><h2>Learn from one of the greats</h2><p>It&#39;s easy to look at someone like Warren Buffett and be envious of his success. But the reality is that while he&#39;s not going around writing checks to individual investors, he&#39;s more than happy to share some of his secrets in the hopes of helping others achieve their financial goals. And so whether you&#39;re new to investing or have been at it for years, it pays to keep these points in mind as you build up your portfolio.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-07 09:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265838091","content_text":"There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he is with advice.Whether it's giving job-search tips to new college graduates or calming people's fears during a stock market crash, Buffett never seems short on words of wisdom. And through the years, I've followed a lot of his tips in the course of building my portfolio. Here are a few specific pieces of advice that have served me well and are worth paying attention to.Image source: Getty Images.1. Look for quality, not a bargainSome stocks trade at a hefty price point, so much so that in the past, I've balked at the idea of buying them. But one thing Buffett has always said is that it's important to focus on quality over price.You might have the opportunity to buy shares of a given tech company at $200 apiece while another company's shares trade for $500 apiece. But the $200 stock isn't necessarily the better deal. And so it's better to focus on the businesses you're buying into than the prices they're trading at.Incidentally, these days, many brokerages let you buy shares on a fractional basis. So if you're hesitant to spend a lot on a single share of stock, you don't have to.2. Hold stocks for a long timeBuffett has famously said that if you're unwilling to hold a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't even own it for 10 minutes. And that's advice I've followed since I started buying stocks.Some people think they can strike it rich in the stock market by buying low and selling as quickly as possible. But I'm a firm believer that the best approach is to load up on quality investments and hold them for many years so they can appreciate in value.3. Don't fall victim to peer pressureYears ago, meme stocks weren't a thing. Now, online influencers have the ability to drive stock prices upward or downward.But ultimately, meme stocks are a risky bet, namely because the businesses behind them are often shaky and unreliable. And so rather than buy meme stocks because they're trendy, it's better to focus on quality businesses that are likely to stay strong for years.The same holds true with crypto. Many people have invested in digital currencies over the past few years. But if you're not comfortable doing so because you think cryptocurrency is too speculative, put your money elsewhere. (Incidentally, Buffett is not a fan of crypto. At all.)Learn from one of the greatsIt's easy to look at someone like Warren Buffett and be envious of his success. But the reality is that while he's not going around writing checks to individual investors, he's more than happy to share some of his secrets in the hopes of helping others achieve their financial goals. And so whether you're new to investing or have been at it for years, it pays to keep these points in mind as you build up your portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931231919,"gmtCreate":1662463911531,"gmtModify":1676537065639,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful info","listText":"Useful info","text":"Useful info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931231919","repostId":"2265105088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265105088","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662445769,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265105088?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-06 14:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Stocks: MATANA Is the New FAANG, Analyst Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265105088","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"It's time to rethink who's at the top of the Big Tech food-chain, Constellation Research Principal A","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It&#39;s time to rethink who&#39;s at the top of the Big Tech food-chain, Constellation Research Principal Analyst &amp; Founder Ray Wang told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p>Wang argued that MATANA — Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN) – is an upgrade to FAANG by dropping Meta (META) and Netflix (NFLX) while adding Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia.</p><p>In 2013, when Jim Cramer of CNBC&#39;s &#34;Mad Money&#34; coined the term FAANG, many of those companies were thought of as upstarts who&#39;d taken their respective markets by storm. This was especially true of Meta — then Facebook — and Netflix. But now, Wang said, both should be re-assessed. Meta, in particular, needs a new plan.</p><p>&#34;Facebook has got to do something besides ads,&#34; he told Yahoo Finance. &#34;Once again, they&#39;re taking a beating for it. So, is it going to be the glasses? Is it going to be the metaverse? We&#39;re not there yet and that&#39;s really kind of what the challenge is.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7152d8bd8d96a5be36325d7fe601935\" tg-width=\"4104\" tg-height=\"2732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla founder Elon Musk attends Offshore Northern Seas 2022 in Stavanger, Norway August 29, 2022. (NTB/Carina Johansen via REUTERS)NTB / reuters</span></p><p>For Netflix, it&#39;s a question of growth, and what is and isn&#39;t on the table. And because the company&#39;s operating on a subscription model, Wang has questions about how much further they could go.</p><p>&#34;The reason they&#39;re out is because, how many more subscribers? How many more subscriptions are you going to handle?&#34; he said. &#34;Product placement should be where they are, plus the ability to do IP licensing. Look at how Disney makes its money.&#34;</p><p>Wang stressed that Microsoft, which is often viewed as one of tech&#39;s leading legacy names, should be included in the group of tech&#39;s most elite leaders (and sometimes has been with the bulky FAAMNG acronym).</p><p>&#34;Microsoft has more than just business-to-business and consumer – they&#39;ve been able to manage both,&#34; he said. &#34;They&#39;re positioned well for the metaverse. They&#39;re positioned well for the cloud and, of course, they&#39;ve got their gaming business.&#34;</p><p>Rounding out the new grouping would be Tesla — a well-known success story at this point — and Nvidia.</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is a lot more than just the chips that we look at and more than the data center or gaming,&#34; Wang said. &#34;They&#39;re sitting at the edge between AI, the metaverse, the future of computing, and the way they do their partnerships, they&#39;re set up in a way that&#39;s going to be dominant for quite some time.&#34;<i>.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech Stocks: MATANA Is the New FAANG, Analyst Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Stocks: MATANA Is the New FAANG, Analyst Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-06 14:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tech-stocks-matana-is-the-new-faang-analyst-says-145511543.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's time to rethink who's at the top of the Big Tech food-chain, Constellation Research Principal Analyst & Founder Ray Wang told Yahoo Finance Live.Wang argued that MATANA — Microsoft (MSFT), Apple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tech-stocks-matana-is-the-new-faang-analyst-says-145511543.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","NFLX":"奈飞","AAPL":"苹果","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tech-stocks-matana-is-the-new-faang-analyst-says-145511543.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265105088","content_text":"It's time to rethink who's at the top of the Big Tech food-chain, Constellation Research Principal Analyst & Founder Ray Wang told Yahoo Finance Live.Wang argued that MATANA — Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN) – is an upgrade to FAANG by dropping Meta (META) and Netflix (NFLX) while adding Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia.In 2013, when Jim Cramer of CNBC's \"Mad Money\" coined the term FAANG, many of those companies were thought of as upstarts who'd taken their respective markets by storm. This was especially true of Meta — then Facebook — and Netflix. But now, Wang said, both should be re-assessed. Meta, in particular, needs a new plan.\"Facebook has got to do something besides ads,\" he told Yahoo Finance. \"Once again, they're taking a beating for it. So, is it going to be the glasses? Is it going to be the metaverse? We're not there yet and that's really kind of what the challenge is.\"Tesla founder Elon Musk attends Offshore Northern Seas 2022 in Stavanger, Norway August 29, 2022. (NTB/Carina Johansen via REUTERS)NTB / reutersFor Netflix, it's a question of growth, and what is and isn't on the table. And because the company's operating on a subscription model, Wang has questions about how much further they could go.\"The reason they're out is because, how many more subscribers? How many more subscriptions are you going to handle?\" he said. \"Product placement should be where they are, plus the ability to do IP licensing. Look at how Disney makes its money.\"Wang stressed that Microsoft, which is often viewed as one of tech's leading legacy names, should be included in the group of tech's most elite leaders (and sometimes has been with the bulky FAAMNG acronym).\"Microsoft has more than just business-to-business and consumer – they've been able to manage both,\" he said. \"They're positioned well for the metaverse. They're positioned well for the cloud and, of course, they've got their gaming business.\"Rounding out the new grouping would be Tesla — a well-known success story at this point — and Nvidia.\"Nvidia is a lot more than just the chips that we look at and more than the data center or gaming,\" Wang said. \"They're sitting at the edge between AI, the metaverse, the future of computing, and the way they do their partnerships, they're set up in a way that's going to be dominant for quite some time.\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939972067,"gmtCreate":1662047523062,"gmtModify":1676536796016,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dark clouds ahead","listText":"Dark clouds ahead","text":"Dark clouds ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939972067","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078864157,"gmtCreate":1657671449979,"gmtModify":1676536042651,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe&nbsp;","listText":"I believe&nbsp;","text":"I believe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078864157","repostId":"1193691775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193691775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657639889,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193691775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193691775","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patien","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Nvidia</b>(<b><u>NVDA</u></b>) stock continues to plunge.</li><li>Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.</li><li>Patient accumulation will be rewarded.</li></ul><p>In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>) investors were reminded of this on July 5.</p><p>The good news is that the chip shortage may be easing. Prices for used gaming cards have plunged. Young gamers who wanted a graphics card for years can now get one, at list prices and lower.</p><p>But this good news is also bad news. The new supply, from broken crypto miners, is coming as production falls.  There are reports Nvidia is cutting back orders from its manufacturing partner, <b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TSM</u></b>).</p><p>The result is that NVDA stock, which was at $286/share in April, traded recently below $144/share.</p><p><b>Short Term Weakness</b></p><p>During the bull market, Nvidia was a ferociously expensive stock. Now it’s just pricey.</p><p>At its July 5 price, the company’s market cap of $362 billion is still almost 39 times last year’s earnings, and over 13 times last year’s sales of $27 billion.</p><p>The good news is that underestimates the company’s power. First-quarter revenue came in at$8.3 billion, up 46%from a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were also up 49% from a year ago. But costs from the cancelled acquisition of ARM Holdings meant GAAP earnings were down 16%.</p><p>The problem is that investors buy tomorrow, not yesterday. If prices for gaming chips continue to fall, Nvidia’s list prices will as well. That will cut earnings because a lot of the company’s revenue still comes from gamers.</p><p>Nvidia is due to report its current quarter on Aug. 24, for the three months ending in July. Analysts currently expect $1.03/share of earnings and$8.11 billion of revenue. Field reports of slowing demand, however, indicate it could fall short. The most recent chip stock to report, <b>Micron Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>MU</u></b>), gave weak guidance. They’re expecting a storm. Nvidia’s ship is being tossed, too.</p><p><b>Long Term Strength</b></p><p>Analysts continue pounding the table for NVDA stock, even as they cut their price targets.</p><p>The reason is that lower prices open huge new opportunities. Car makers can now bring those autonomous driving features to the market. Nvidia’s artificial intelligence software can now be offered as a service, with <b>Hewlett Packard Enterprise</b>(NYSE:<b><u>HPE</u></b>) bringing it to the network edge. <b>Alphabet’s</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>GOOGL</u></b>) cloud gaming service, Stadia, may now be able to fulfill its promise with an Nvidia upgrade.</p><p>Even while edge applications for Nvidia chips slow, like gaming and crypto, the cloud continues to grow. Data centers were the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips in the first quarter. Capital spending from the cloud czars, especially Google, <b>Microsoft</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>MSFT</u></b>), and <b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>), remains strong. Lower prices may just mean they’ll buy more Nvidia graphics chips for new applications. Eventually, cloud services at the network center will spur demand for support from the network edge, as prices for things like <b>Meta Network</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>FB</u></b>) headsets come down. Meta, by the way, has been a big buyer of Nvidia chips for its “metaverse” activities.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line for NVDA Stock</b></p><p>Bear markets end.</p><p>When they do, tech stocks will be the first to rise again. Companies like Nvidia make new money-saving ideas practical. They create new markets and growth. This has driven the economy forward for a half-century. It’s not changing.</p><p>But bear markets also require patience. It’s easy to say, “buy the dip.” The problem right now is many investors have no cash with which to do that. That means the best advice is to hold your nerve.</p><p>Nvidia may not rise again for several months. It may even go lower. No one is paying 13 times revenue for anything right now. The next few months may be brutal.</p><p>The snapback, however, when it comes, will be something to behold. You’ll want to behold it from inside the Nvidia tent rather than outside.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-12 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193691775","content_text":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) investors were reminded of this on July 5.The good news is that the chip shortage may be easing. Prices for used gaming cards have plunged. Young gamers who wanted a graphics card for years can now get one, at list prices and lower.But this good news is also bad news. The new supply, from broken crypto miners, is coming as production falls.  There are reports Nvidia is cutting back orders from its manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM).The result is that NVDA stock, which was at $286/share in April, traded recently below $144/share.Short Term WeaknessDuring the bull market, Nvidia was a ferociously expensive stock. Now it’s just pricey.At its July 5 price, the company’s market cap of $362 billion is still almost 39 times last year’s earnings, and over 13 times last year’s sales of $27 billion.The good news is that underestimates the company’s power. First-quarter revenue came in at$8.3 billion, up 46%from a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were also up 49% from a year ago. But costs from the cancelled acquisition of ARM Holdings meant GAAP earnings were down 16%.The problem is that investors buy tomorrow, not yesterday. If prices for gaming chips continue to fall, Nvidia’s list prices will as well. That will cut earnings because a lot of the company’s revenue still comes from gamers.Nvidia is due to report its current quarter on Aug. 24, for the three months ending in July. Analysts currently expect $1.03/share of earnings and$8.11 billion of revenue. Field reports of slowing demand, however, indicate it could fall short. The most recent chip stock to report, Micron Technologies(NASDAQ:MU), gave weak guidance. They’re expecting a storm. Nvidia’s ship is being tossed, too.Long Term StrengthAnalysts continue pounding the table for NVDA stock, even as they cut their price targets.The reason is that lower prices open huge new opportunities. Car makers can now bring those autonomous driving features to the market. Nvidia’s artificial intelligence software can now be offered as a service, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise(NYSE:HPE) bringing it to the network edge. Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL) cloud gaming service, Stadia, may now be able to fulfill its promise with an Nvidia upgrade.Even while edge applications for Nvidia chips slow, like gaming and crypto, the cloud continues to grow. Data centers were the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips in the first quarter. Capital spending from the cloud czars, especially Google, Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), remains strong. Lower prices may just mean they’ll buy more Nvidia graphics chips for new applications. Eventually, cloud services at the network center will spur demand for support from the network edge, as prices for things like Meta Network(NASDAQ:FB) headsets come down. Meta, by the way, has been a big buyer of Nvidia chips for its “metaverse” activities.The Bottom Line for NVDA StockBear markets end.When they do, tech stocks will be the first to rise again. Companies like Nvidia make new money-saving ideas practical. They create new markets and growth. This has driven the economy forward for a half-century. It’s not changing.But bear markets also require patience. It’s easy to say, “buy the dip.” The problem right now is many investors have no cash with which to do that. That means the best advice is to hold your nerve.Nvidia may not rise again for several months. It may even go lower. No one is paying 13 times revenue for anything right now. The next few months may be brutal.The snapback, however, when it comes, will be something to behold. You’ll want to behold it from inside the Nvidia tent rather than outside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026972813,"gmtCreate":1653318593132,"gmtModify":1676535259790,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026972813","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237884509","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653291757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237884509?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How To Invest In A Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237884509","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.</li><li>Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.</li><li>Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an opportunity in retrospect.</li><li>Emotions run high, but fortune favors the patient.</li><li>Let&#39;s review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170860a23786e0a4eea90ff2945b8176\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>pictafolio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p>Being an optimist is a superpower.</p><p>That&#39;s particularly true in times like these.</p><p>After another week in the house of pain, the Nasdaq (QQQ) is down 30% from its previous high. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3413a72f37c75d776401480b027f03e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>If this sell-off is a typical market correction like we&#39;ve seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.</p><p>Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&amp;P 500 bear markets since 1950:</p><blockquote><i>Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-and-a-half years to break even.</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a634d10eb4b4e139377eb46ea1f56f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>S&amp;P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)</span></p><p>So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we&#39;ll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we&#39;ll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.</p><p>It&#39;s important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don&#39;t plan to keep invested for at least five years.</p><p>A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn&#39;t sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it&#39;s temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:</p><blockquote><i>All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.</i></blockquote><p>Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall <i>another</i> 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.</p><p>If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn&#39;t feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:</p><blockquote><i>You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.</i></blockquote><p>The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.</p><p>You&#39;ll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They&#39;ll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:</p><blockquote><i>“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.</i></blockquote><p>Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer&#39;s mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:</p><blockquote><i>A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.</i></blockquote><p>Easier said than done?</p><p>Let&#39;s review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.</p><p><b>1) Zoom out.</b></p><p>Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.</p><p>Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don&#39;t tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.</p><p>The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ab81195eb2e3587a7819d6957fa36be\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)</span></p><p>Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:</p><blockquote><i>[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.</i></blockquote><p>On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn&#39;t be able to predict how the stock market will react.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2ef9e05a6b3ae4e0c025e213670a60\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"735\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Recessions &amp; Expansions (Visual Capitalist)</span></p><p>Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can&#39;t help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.</p><p>As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Market drawdown</b></td><td><b>Historical Frequency</b></td></tr><tr><td>10%</td><td>Every 11 months</td></tr><tr><td>15%</td><td>Every 24 months</td></tr><tr><td>20%</td><td>Every four years</td></tr><tr><td>30%</td><td>Every decade</td></tr><tr><td>40%</td><td>Every few decades</td></tr><tr><td>50%</td><td>2-3 times per century</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Again, the S&amp;P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it&#39;s possible but also unlikely. We just don&#39;t know.</p><p>That&#39;s why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool&#39;s errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for <i>sustainability</i> and <i>survivability</i>.</p><p><b>2) Document your decisions.</b></p><p>In his book <i>The Money Game</i>, Adam Smith explained:</p><blockquote><i>If you don&#39;t know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.</i></blockquote><p>Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That&#39;s true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.</p><p>The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the &#34;cycle of emotions&#34; that comes with the market&#39;s ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I&#39;m in denial).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d884d2790a7a799b1fbbb5aecbbd42\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"794\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)</span></p><p>I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio&#39;s returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.</p><p>Journaling is the closest thing you&#39;ll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.</p><ul><li>Why do you invest?</li><li>What is your time horizon?</li><li>What is your investment philosophy?</li><li>Why are you bullish about this company?</li><li>Is there something that would break your thesis?</li><li>What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?</li></ul><p>Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.</p><p>We are already in a downturn, so you don&#39;t have this luxury anymore. But it&#39;s not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?</p><p>In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process &#34;on hold&#34; because red days take a toll on them.</p><p>Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you&#39;re doing wrong, but also with what you&#39;re doing right.</p><p>Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.</p><p>Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as <i>fear of joining in</i> or <i>missing out</i> (another topic I&#39;ve covered more in-depth here).</p><p>As someone managing an investment marketplace, I&#39;ve seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they &#34;felt&#34; like there wasn&#39;t much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:</p><blockquote><i>The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.</i></blockquote><p>If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to &#34;sleep on it&#34; and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.</p><p>There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don&#39;t have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night&#39;s sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.</p><p><b>3) Automate and stick to your plan.</b></p><p>Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.</p><p>I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:</p><ol><li>I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).</li><li>I don&#39;t add to losers (fighting prospect theory).</li><li>I don&#39;t sell winners (staying the course).</li><li>I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).</li></ol><p>I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.</p><p>These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:</p><ul><li>It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).</li><li>It <i>forces me to invest</i> every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.</li><li>It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, <i>easing my way</i> in the market (spreading investments over time).</li><li>It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.</li></ul><p>I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.</p><p>In his book <i>The Psychology of Money</i>, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being <i>rational</i> vs. <i>reasonable</i>. A <i>rational</i> decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.</p><p>However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is <i>reasonable</i> for you.</p><p>The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That&#39;s why portfolio suitability is so essential.</p><p>Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.</p><p>Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer&#39;s remorse when the market continues to fall.</p><p>I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4a94ee08348304e119c97815f86b055\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).</p><p>It doesn&#39;t matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.</p><p><b>4) Be selective and focus on quality</b></p><p>A bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you&#39;ve wanted to own for a long time but couldn&#39;t because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that&#39;s where your focus should be.</p><p>Again, I wouldn&#39;t bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn&#39;t get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.</p><p>Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn&#39;t be shocking to see a stock fall <i>another</i> 30% right after you buy it. That&#39;s the cost of doing business. If you don&#39;t have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.</p><p>Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.</p><p><b>What is a high-quality business, you ask?</b></p><p>I modernized Philip Fisher&#39;s Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:</p><ol><li>Large addressable market.</li><li>Future growth initiatives.</li><li>Effective research and development.</li><li>Effective sales &amp; marketing.</li><li>Worthwhile profit margins.</li><li>Improving profit margins.</li><li>Strong culture.</li><li>High insider ownership.</li><li>Management team depth.</li><li>Consistent reporting.</li><li>Sustainable competitive advantages.</li><li>Long-term vision.</li><li>Financial fortitude.</li><li>Transparent management.</li><li>Ethical management.</li></ol><p>I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.</p><p>The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d506ce6743c74db3df117a557fac5019\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Our north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.</p><p>It&#39;s essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That&#39;s why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.</p><p>I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a> (SQ), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.</p><p>I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you&#39;ve had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the &#34;flavor of the month.&#34; For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well &#34;now&#34; or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.</p><p>Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.</p><p>The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.</p><p>In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won&#39;t pass this filter. And that&#39;s a good thing.</p><p><b>5) Be patient. This too shall pass.</b></p><p>It&#39;s not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.</p><p>What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that&#39;s what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:</p><blockquote><i>Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.</i></blockquote><p>As Charlie Munger explained:</p><blockquote><i>It&#39;s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can&#39;t stand to wait. If you didn&#39;t get the deferred-gratification gene, you&#39;ve got to work very hard to overcome that.</i></blockquote><p>So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you&#39;ve genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don&#39;t sell until I&#39;ve held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It&#39;s an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.</p><p>Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That&#39;s right, doing nothing at all.</p><p>Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don&#39;t go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.</p><p>You&#39;ll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don&#39;t find it particularly insightful. It&#39;s the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.</p><p>There <i>are</i> periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn&#39;t suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life&#39;s savings at the market top in 2000.</p><p>Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.</p><p><b>Final Word</b></p><p>A bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:</p><ol><li><b>Zoom out</b>. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.</li><li><b>Document your decisions</b>. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.</li><li><b>Automate and stick to your plan</b>. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.</li><li><b>Be selective</b>. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.</li><li><b>Be patient. This too shall pass</b>. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we&#39;ll all come out stronger on the other side.</li></ol><p><b>What about you?</b></p><ul><li>How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?</li><li>Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?</li><li>Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?</li></ul><p>Let me know in the comments!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How To Invest In A Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow To Invest In A Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 15:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237884509","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an opportunity in retrospect.Emotions run high, but fortune favors the patient.Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.pictafolio/E+ via Getty ImagesBeing an optimist is a superpower.That's particularly true in times like these.After another week in the house of pain, the Nasdaq (QQQ) is down 30% from its previous high. Meanwhile, the S&P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.Data by YChartsIf this sell-off is a typical market correction like we've seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&P 500 bear markets since 1950:Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than one-and-a-half years to break even.S&P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we'll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we'll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.It's important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don't plan to keep invested for at least five years.A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn't sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it's temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall another 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn't feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.You'll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They'll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer's mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.Easier said than done?Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.1) Zoom out.Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don't tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn't be able to predict how the stock market will react.Recessions & Expansions (Visual Capitalist)Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can't help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:Market drawdownHistorical Frequency10%Every 11 months15%Every 24 months20%Every four years30%Every decade40%Every few decades50%2-3 times per centuryAgain, the S&P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it's possible but also unlikely. We just don't know.That's why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool's errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for sustainability and survivability.2) Document your decisions.In his book The Money Game, Adam Smith explained:If you don't know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That's true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the \"cycle of emotions\" that comes with the market's ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I'm in denial).Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio's returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.Journaling is the closest thing you'll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.Why do you invest?What is your time horizon?What is your investment philosophy?Why are you bullish about this company?Is there something that would break your thesis?What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.We are already in a downturn, so you don't have this luxury anymore. But it's not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process \"on hold\" because red days take a toll on them.Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you're doing wrong, but also with what you're doing right.Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as fear of joining in or missing out (another topic I've covered more in-depth here).As someone managing an investment marketplace, I've seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they \"felt\" like there wasn't much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to \"sleep on it\" and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don't have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night's sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.3) Automate and stick to your plan.Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).I don't add to losers (fighting prospect theory).I don't sell winners (staying the course).I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).It forces me to invest every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, easing my way in the market (spreading investments over time).It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.In his book The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being rational vs. reasonable. A rational decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is reasonable for you.The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That's why portfolio suitability is so essential.Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer's remorse when the market continues to fall.I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)The S&P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).It doesn't matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.4) Be selective and focus on qualityA bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you've wanted to own for a long time but couldn't because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that's where your focus should be.Again, I wouldn't bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn't get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn't be shocking to see a stock fall another 30% right after you buy it. That's the cost of doing business. If you don't have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.What is a high-quality business, you ask?I modernized Philip Fisher's Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:Large addressable market.Future growth initiatives.Effective research and development.Effective sales & marketing.Worthwhile profit margins.Improving profit margins.Strong culture.High insider ownership.Management team depth.Consistent reporting.Sustainable competitive advantages.Long-term vision.Financial fortitude.Transparent management.Ethical management.I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.Data by YChartsOur north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.It's essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That's why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), Block (SQ), and Datadog (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you've had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the \"flavor of the month.\" For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well \"now\" or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won't pass this filter. And that's a good thing.5) Be patient. This too shall pass.It's not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that's what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.As Charlie Munger explained:It's waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can't stand to wait. If you didn't get the deferred-gratification gene, you've got to work very hard to overcome that.So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you've genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don't sell until I've held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It's an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That's right, doing nothing at all.Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don't go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.You'll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don't find it particularly insightful. It's the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.There are periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn't suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life's savings at the market top in 2000.Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.Final WordA bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:Zoom out. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.Document your decisions. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.Automate and stick to your plan. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.Be selective. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.Be patient. This too shall pass. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we'll all come out stronger on the other side.What about you?How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?Let me know in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021233037,"gmtCreate":1653056862029,"gmtModify":1676535216024,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","listText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","text":"Ok won't eat the apple now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021233037","repostId":"2236670897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236670897","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653011211,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236670897?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 09:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Be Careful, There's A Lot More Downside Risk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236670897","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryApple is a fundamentally strong company that will generate some business growth in the coming","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple is a fundamentally strong company that will generate some business growth in the coming years.</li><li>The huge baseline means that relative growth won&#39;t be too strong, and at the same time, AAPL&#39;s buybacks are way less effective than they used to be.</li><li>AAPL shares have sold off considerably, but they are still far from cheap. In fact, another 30% share price drop could bring the valuation to the long-term average.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/155c5440be53b77f03e11163375aa17c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>24K-Production/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a fundamentally strong company, but its growth is not outrageously high. At the same time, shares trade well above the historical norm, which makes its buybacks less effective and which results in multiplecompression risk. Over the last couple of months, Apple has already seen its shares pull back considerably. Depending on where rates are headed, shares could fall further, however.</p><p><b>Apple Has A Strong Business, But Not Too Much Growth</b></p><p>Looking at Apple&#39;s fundamentals, we can say that this is clearly a strong company. Not only does Apple have a great balance sheet with ample cash resources, but Apple also operates with attractive margins and returns on capital.</p><p>During the last four quarters, Apple&#39;s net margin was 26%. That does not only mean that Apple generates a hefty amount of profit for every additional sale it makes, but Apple&#39;s margins also are reducing risks in times of inflation. Some companies have already seen their margins compress due to the current high-inflation environment. That is way more dangerous for companies with low margins, as a 200-basis point margin hit would cut profits in half for a company with a 4% net margin. Apple, in the same scenario, would see its profits decline by less than 10%, which means that high-margin businesses such as Apple are lower-risk investments in times such as these.</p><p>A high-quality company isn&#39;t necessarily a high-growth company, however. In Apple&#39;s case, the enormous baseline means that growing the business further is far from easy. A company that generates annual revenue of close to $400 billion needs to add billions of dollars in revenue every year just for a paltry 1% revenue growth rate. If the company wants a 5% growth rate, which is solid but far from spectacular, $20 billion in additional sales during a single year are required. Price increases for its hardware products such as the iPhone, iPad, Mac, etc. help drive some revenue growth in the long run, but volume growth is not too much of a tailwind. After all, most people that want a smartphone or a tablet already have one and replacing existing ones does not lead to long-term volume growth. Apple&#39;s services business has generated above-average growth in recent years, but that will likely not be enough to lead to great business growth in the long run. After all, even when Apple rolls out new services over time that add a billion in revenue or two, that barely moves the needle for a $400 billion-a-year giant.</p><p>Not too surprisingly, Apple&#39;s forecasted revenue growth is thus not overly strong:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34d4d22439ea64352caf9220cffbb8b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL revenue growth forecast (Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>Growth during the current year is forecasted at a little less than 8%, partially made possible thanks to a still somewhat easy comparison to the pandemic-impacted quarters last year. Beyond the current year, growth is forecasted to decelerate meaningfully, however, to just 5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024-2025.</p><p>Earnings per share growth is not only coming from revenue growth, of course. Margin expansion can boost earnings further, but due to Apple&#39;s already very high margins and due to inflationary pressures in all kinds of products and commodities, it seems doubtful whether Apple will be able to boost its margins dramatically from the already very elevated level.</p><p>Last but not least, buybacks can result in earnings per share growing faster than the company&#39;s overall net profits. That has been the case for Apple for many years, and it will likely hold true in the future as well. Unfortunately, Apple&#39;s buybacks have become a lot less efficient over time. Between May 2013 and May 2020, Apple&#39;s share count declined by 32%, which pencils out to a 5.4% annual reduction rate (CAGR). Over the last two years, however, Apple has only reduced its share count by 4.8%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f8fa0d831de491cef772ea0668d8b1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The annual share count reduction pace in that time frame was thus just 2.4%, or significantly less than half the buyback pace seen over the previous seven years. That is not the result of a reduction in Apple&#39;s absolute buyback spending. Instead, Apple&#39;s shares have become way more expensive than they used to be over the last decade, which has made buybacks less efficient - naturally, buying back shares when they are cheap is more impactful than buying back shares when they are expensive.</p><p>Since Apple&#39;s shares are still very pricey when compared to the historical norm, we can expect that Apple&#39;s buybacks will continue to lack behind the historic average in relative terms. The earnings per share growth tailwinds from buybacks should thus continue to underwhelm going forward, compared to the way more pronounced buyback impact we have seen in prior years when Apple was able to scoop up shares at a way lower valuation.</p><p>Due to the baseline effect/law of large numbers that makes maintaining a lot of business growth difficult, and due to the fact that smartphones, PCs, and so on aren&#39;t really a growth industry, combined with a weak impact from buybacks, Apple is thus not expected to grow its earnings per share very much going forward. I still do expect that Apple will generate a solid earnings per share growth pace in the long run, but not an exciting one.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18547e21264db45381f14fec12e30f17\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Over the last decade, Apple has grown its earnings per share by a huge 305%. That pencils out to an annual earnings per share growth rate of 15.0%. Going forward, the analyst community is predicting earnings per share growth that is roughly half as high:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0e4b495e8312d0585f3bd55eb891d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL EPS growth forecast (Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>We see expected EPS growth of 10% this year, while earnings per share growth is forecasted to decelerate to as low as 4% in the years beyond 2022. Overall, earnings per share are forecasted to rise by just 80% over the coming nine years, while Apple roughly quadrupled its EPS over the last ten years. Clearly, growth in the coming years will likely be way lower than it used to be in the past. That is not necessarily a disaster. In fact, growth deceleration over time has to be expected as companies mature eventually. The lower future growth should be reflected in the company&#39;s valuation, however, and that does not seem to be the case at all.</p><p><b>AAPL Stock: Expensive By Historical Standards</b></p><p>Right now, Apple is trading for $141 per share, which is down by 23% from the 52-week high. But that has by far not made Apple into a cheap stock:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d84af723e478e338c15dddd6434ab26\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In the above chart, we see that Apple is now trading for 23x forward net profits, while the 10-year median earnings multiple is 16.4. In other words, Apple is still trading at a 40% premium compared to how shares were valued, on average, in the past. Looking at the company&#39;s enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for changes in net cash due to using EV, the premium versus the historical valuation is even more pronounced. At a 19x forward EV/EBITDA multiple, Apple is trading at a premium of almost 80% compared to the 10-year median EV/EBITDA ratio of 10.6.</p><p>We can thus summarize that Apple&#39;s current valuation is still way higher than it was, on average, over the last decade - despite the 20%+ share price decline since the company peaked earlier this year. At the same time, Apple&#39;s expected revenue and earnings per share growth rate for the coming years is way<i>lower</i>than the growth the company has delivered over the last decade. A way higher valuation for a company that will be delivering way less growth in the coming years does not seem like an attractive investment proposal to me.</p><p>Another way to look at Apple&#39;s valuation is a comparison between its earnings yield and the US Treasury yield:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cf71cfbf6927b0cbc348428cff0fb3b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>We see that Apple&#39;s earnings yield is currently 1.1% higher than the 10-year treasury rate. Historically, the risk premium has been much larger, often around 3%, but even higher at times. We can thus say that, relative to risk-free investments (treasuries), Apple has become more expensive over the last couple of years, as its spread has dwindled. That does not necessarily mean that Treasuries are a better investment. But it seems clear that Apple has been getting way more expensive in recent years, as investors bid up its shares further and further, pushing the yield spread versus risk-free investments lower and lower.</p><p><b>What It Means</b></p><p>The combination of these factors means that Apple could have considerably more downside potential. The company, which will most likely not grow as much in the future as it did in the past, could see its shares fall by another 30%, and it would still not be cheap by historical standards. Instead, Apple would be trading perfectly in line with its 10-year median earnings multiple of 16 in that scenario. Apple&#39;s shares are not as overvalued as they were when they traded at $160, $170, or even higher. But even at $141, AAPL is still very clearly on the expensive side by historical standards. With interest rates rising, which is a clear negative for equity valuations, Apple has considerably more downside risk. That will not necessarily materialize, but investors should at least know that buying Apple at $141, and at an earnings multiple well above 20 is far from a value pick. Apple was a great value pick when it traded at earnings multiples of 10-15 years ago. But today, even following a sizeable downturn in recent months, AAPL is still pricey.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Be Careful, There's A Lot More Downside Risk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Be Careful, There's A Lot More Downside Risk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-20 09:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513040-apple-stock-lot-more-downside-risk><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is a fundamentally strong company that will generate some business growth in the coming years.The huge baseline means that relative growth won't be too strong, and at the same time, AAPL'...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513040-apple-stock-lot-more-downside-risk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513040-apple-stock-lot-more-downside-risk","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2236670897","content_text":"SummaryApple is a fundamentally strong company that will generate some business growth in the coming years.The huge baseline means that relative growth won't be too strong, and at the same time, AAPL's buybacks are way less effective than they used to be.AAPL shares have sold off considerably, but they are still far from cheap. In fact, another 30% share price drop could bring the valuation to the long-term average.24K-Production/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a fundamentally strong company, but its growth is not outrageously high. At the same time, shares trade well above the historical norm, which makes its buybacks less effective and which results in multiplecompression risk. Over the last couple of months, Apple has already seen its shares pull back considerably. Depending on where rates are headed, shares could fall further, however.Apple Has A Strong Business, But Not Too Much GrowthLooking at Apple's fundamentals, we can say that this is clearly a strong company. Not only does Apple have a great balance sheet with ample cash resources, but Apple also operates with attractive margins and returns on capital.During the last four quarters, Apple's net margin was 26%. That does not only mean that Apple generates a hefty amount of profit for every additional sale it makes, but Apple's margins also are reducing risks in times of inflation. Some companies have already seen their margins compress due to the current high-inflation environment. That is way more dangerous for companies with low margins, as a 200-basis point margin hit would cut profits in half for a company with a 4% net margin. Apple, in the same scenario, would see its profits decline by less than 10%, which means that high-margin businesses such as Apple are lower-risk investments in times such as these.A high-quality company isn't necessarily a high-growth company, however. In Apple's case, the enormous baseline means that growing the business further is far from easy. A company that generates annual revenue of close to $400 billion needs to add billions of dollars in revenue every year just for a paltry 1% revenue growth rate. If the company wants a 5% growth rate, which is solid but far from spectacular, $20 billion in additional sales during a single year are required. Price increases for its hardware products such as the iPhone, iPad, Mac, etc. help drive some revenue growth in the long run, but volume growth is not too much of a tailwind. After all, most people that want a smartphone or a tablet already have one and replacing existing ones does not lead to long-term volume growth. Apple's services business has generated above-average growth in recent years, but that will likely not be enough to lead to great business growth in the long run. After all, even when Apple rolls out new services over time that add a billion in revenue or two, that barely moves the needle for a $400 billion-a-year giant.Not too surprisingly, Apple's forecasted revenue growth is thus not overly strong:AAPL revenue growth forecast (Source: Seeking Alpha)Growth during the current year is forecasted at a little less than 8%, partially made possible thanks to a still somewhat easy comparison to the pandemic-impacted quarters last year. Beyond the current year, growth is forecasted to decelerate meaningfully, however, to just 5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024-2025.Earnings per share growth is not only coming from revenue growth, of course. Margin expansion can boost earnings further, but due to Apple's already very high margins and due to inflationary pressures in all kinds of products and commodities, it seems doubtful whether Apple will be able to boost its margins dramatically from the already very elevated level.Last but not least, buybacks can result in earnings per share growing faster than the company's overall net profits. That has been the case for Apple for many years, and it will likely hold true in the future as well. Unfortunately, Apple's buybacks have become a lot less efficient over time. Between May 2013 and May 2020, Apple's share count declined by 32%, which pencils out to a 5.4% annual reduction rate (CAGR). Over the last two years, however, Apple has only reduced its share count by 4.8%:Data by YChartsThe annual share count reduction pace in that time frame was thus just 2.4%, or significantly less than half the buyback pace seen over the previous seven years. That is not the result of a reduction in Apple's absolute buyback spending. Instead, Apple's shares have become way more expensive than they used to be over the last decade, which has made buybacks less efficient - naturally, buying back shares when they are cheap is more impactful than buying back shares when they are expensive.Since Apple's shares are still very pricey when compared to the historical norm, we can expect that Apple's buybacks will continue to lack behind the historic average in relative terms. The earnings per share growth tailwinds from buybacks should thus continue to underwhelm going forward, compared to the way more pronounced buyback impact we have seen in prior years when Apple was able to scoop up shares at a way lower valuation.Due to the baseline effect/law of large numbers that makes maintaining a lot of business growth difficult, and due to the fact that smartphones, PCs, and so on aren't really a growth industry, combined with a weak impact from buybacks, Apple is thus not expected to grow its earnings per share very much going forward. I still do expect that Apple will generate a solid earnings per share growth pace in the long run, but not an exciting one.Data by YChartsOver the last decade, Apple has grown its earnings per share by a huge 305%. That pencils out to an annual earnings per share growth rate of 15.0%. Going forward, the analyst community is predicting earnings per share growth that is roughly half as high:AAPL EPS growth forecast (Source: Seeking Alpha)We see expected EPS growth of 10% this year, while earnings per share growth is forecasted to decelerate to as low as 4% in the years beyond 2022. Overall, earnings per share are forecasted to rise by just 80% over the coming nine years, while Apple roughly quadrupled its EPS over the last ten years. Clearly, growth in the coming years will likely be way lower than it used to be in the past. That is not necessarily a disaster. In fact, growth deceleration over time has to be expected as companies mature eventually. The lower future growth should be reflected in the company's valuation, however, and that does not seem to be the case at all.AAPL Stock: Expensive By Historical StandardsRight now, Apple is trading for $141 per share, which is down by 23% from the 52-week high. But that has by far not made Apple into a cheap stock:Data by YChartsIn the above chart, we see that Apple is now trading for 23x forward net profits, while the 10-year median earnings multiple is 16.4. In other words, Apple is still trading at a 40% premium compared to how shares were valued, on average, in the past. Looking at the company's enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for changes in net cash due to using EV, the premium versus the historical valuation is even more pronounced. At a 19x forward EV/EBITDA multiple, Apple is trading at a premium of almost 80% compared to the 10-year median EV/EBITDA ratio of 10.6.We can thus summarize that Apple's current valuation is still way higher than it was, on average, over the last decade - despite the 20%+ share price decline since the company peaked earlier this year. At the same time, Apple's expected revenue and earnings per share growth rate for the coming years is waylowerthan the growth the company has delivered over the last decade. A way higher valuation for a company that will be delivering way less growth in the coming years does not seem like an attractive investment proposal to me.Another way to look at Apple's valuation is a comparison between its earnings yield and the US Treasury yield:Data by YChartsWe see that Apple's earnings yield is currently 1.1% higher than the 10-year treasury rate. Historically, the risk premium has been much larger, often around 3%, but even higher at times. We can thus say that, relative to risk-free investments (treasuries), Apple has become more expensive over the last couple of years, as its spread has dwindled. That does not necessarily mean that Treasuries are a better investment. But it seems clear that Apple has been getting way more expensive in recent years, as investors bid up its shares further and further, pushing the yield spread versus risk-free investments lower and lower.What It MeansThe combination of these factors means that Apple could have considerably more downside potential. The company, which will most likely not grow as much in the future as it did in the past, could see its shares fall by another 30%, and it would still not be cheap by historical standards. Instead, Apple would be trading perfectly in line with its 10-year median earnings multiple of 16 in that scenario. Apple's shares are not as overvalued as they were when they traded at $160, $170, or even higher. But even at $141, AAPL is still very clearly on the expensive side by historical standards. With interest rates rising, which is a clear negative for equity valuations, Apple has considerably more downside risk. That will not necessarily materialize, but investors should at least know that buying Apple at $141, and at an earnings multiple well above 20 is far from a value pick. Apple was a great value pick when it traded at earnings multiples of 10-15 years ago. But today, even following a sizeable downturn in recent months, AAPL is still pricey.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021239088,"gmtCreate":1653056750744,"gmtModify":1676535215994,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let the bear growls for a while","listText":"Let the bear growls for a while","text":"Let the bear growls for a while","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021239088","repostId":"2236030095","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236030095","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653018088,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236030095?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236030095","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL Financial</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec8719446c55ca2119afff7aa944210\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</span></p><p>History shows that when the S&amp;P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.</p><p>Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark  down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average  isn&#39;t far behind, ending at 31, 253.13, 15.1% below its Jan. 4 record close. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.</p><p>To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bearlike fashion for weeks.</p><p>So far 61% of individual companies in the S&amp;P 500 are in bear market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re kind of there, but it hasn&#39;t shown up in the broad index yet,&#34; he said, in a Thursday interview.</p><p>And note, that if the S&amp;P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market ends once the S&amp;P 500 has risen 20% from a low.</p><p>OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?</p><p>There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&amp;P 500 has had further to fall once it begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051788c3944a663c19e8570bcd44348f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"550\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>LPL Research</span></p><p>The steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen Tuesday, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.</p><p>The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. &#34;have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.</p><p>&#34;Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep &#39;up&#39; the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,&#34; Essaye wrote.</p><p>Mullaney at Boston Partners worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn&#39;t the case for the S&amp;P 500, he noted. That indicates that the analysts covering the S&amp;P 500 are &#34;behind the curve,&#34; which could be one of the last shoes that has to drop.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSelloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-20 11:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows that when the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.Back-to-back drops left the large...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236030095","content_text":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows that when the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark  down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The Dow Jones Industrial Average  isn't far behind, ending at 31, 253.13, 15.1% below its Jan. 4 record close. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bearlike fashion for weeks.So far 61% of individual companies in the S&P 500 are in bear market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.\"We're kind of there, but it hasn't shown up in the broad index yet,\" he said, in a Thursday interview.And note, that if the S&P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market ends once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&P 500 has had further to fall once it begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).LPL ResearchThe steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.The S&P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen Tuesday, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. \"have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,\" said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.\"Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep 'up' the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,\" Essaye wrote.Mullaney at Boston Partners worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn't the case for the S&P 500, he noted. That indicates that the analysts covering the S&P 500 are \"behind the curve,\" which could be one of the last shoes that has to drop.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029992850,"gmtCreate":1652711451070,"gmtModify":1676535146497,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Love the optimism&nbsp;","listText":"Love the optimism&nbsp;","text":"Love the optimism","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029992850","repostId":"1185672001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185672001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652698654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185672001?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-16 18:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor Fear Around Meta Platforms Is Overblown","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185672001","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Meta Platforms(FB), formerly Facebook, has not recovered from its December earnings release.The comp","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Meta Platforms</b>(<b><u>FB</u></b>), formerly Facebook, has not recovered from its December earnings release.</li><li>The company continues to invest in its cloud and metaverse software.</li><li>It’s dirt cheap but continuing to grow.</li></ul><p>The value of <b>Meta Platforms</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>FB</u></b>) stock has been cut nearly in half by the latest tech wreck.</p><p>But it will come back.</p><p>Meta’s growth has slowed but it has not stopped. First quarter revenue was $28 billion, almost $2 billion ahead of a year earlier. Profits were down, but that had been telegraphed months ago. Operating cash flow, meanwhile, surged to over $14 billion, against $12 billion a year earlier.</p><p>What is mainly happening to the stock is multiple compression. With a market cap of $562 billion, Meta is now selling for 15 times earnings, less if you throw in the $44 billion it has in cash and marketable securities.</p><p>What Went Wrong</p><p>Meta was one of the first stocks to plummet this year after disappointing earnings, announced in February.</p><p>Like the latest numbers, those numbers represented only a slowdown, not a loss. Meta earned $10.3 billion and $3.67 per share fully diluted for the three months ending in December. This was down from the previous year because Meta was investing in its “metaverse” software. Revenue was up by 20% at $33.7 billion.</p><p>The market reacted like Meta was going out of business. The stock dropped nearly $100/share overnight, and it’s down another $40/share since. If you need the money you invested in Meta when it was high, you’re out of luck.</p><p>Meta took it especially hard because few analysts believe in its metaverse. They see co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg risking tens of billions of dollars on a chimera. They want Meta to share its profits with them in the form of dividends and stock buybacks. Those buybacks have fallen along with the stock, to $7.5 billion in the first quarter from $19 billion the previous quarter.</p><p>FB Stock Strengths</p><p>There are two reasons not to count Meta out.</p><p>The most important is its cloud. Its “fleet” of 21 data centers,17 in the U.S., were all bought with cash flow. It doesn’t pay to deliver its services, the way rivals like <b>Snap</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>SNAP</u></b>) and <b>TikTok</b> do.</p><p>If Meta wanted, it could easily monetize this cloud by letting other services use it. It has chosen not to do so. But it remains a “Cloud Czar,” just as <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>), which also doesn’t rent its capacity, remains a Cloud Czar. It controls the infrastructure that runs the world.</p><p>The second strength is the source of its revenue. You may hate Facebook, but billions of people in the developing world depend on the free services of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp for connecting to world markets. Facebook may be in a fight over regulation with the U.S. and European governments, but it has accommodated itself to regulation in these other places and continues to grow.</p><p>In short, what Meta has are First World problems.</p><p>The Bottom Line on FB Stock</p><p>I don’t own Meta stock. I don’t trust Zuckerberg any further than I could throw him.</p><p>But Meta stock will rise at some point.It is still growing. Meta still owns its own infrastructure. It’s still inching forward with the metaverse, opening a retail store in Silicon Valley to sell its Reality Labs headsets. Analysts are appalled that Meta is prepared to lose $10 billion on Reality Labs this year, but it’s money Meta can afford to lose and still make a profit.</p><p>Bear markets are temporary. Tech wrecks are, too. The companies with the cash and infrastructure to survive them gain huge opportunities as competitors fail. If you’re looking out five years from now, you can buy Meta Platforms stock here and, most likely, you’ll make money.</p><p>Even if you believe Zuckerberg is a lunatic and the metaverse is ridiculous Facebook will go on.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor Fear Around Meta Platforms Is Overblown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor Fear Around Meta Platforms Is Overblown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-16 18:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/investor-fear-around-fb-stock-is-overblown/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Meta Platforms(FB), formerly Facebook, has not recovered from its December earnings release.The company continues to invest in its cloud and metaverse software.It’s dirt cheap but continuing to grow....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/investor-fear-around-fb-stock-is-overblown/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/investor-fear-around-fb-stock-is-overblown/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185672001","content_text":"Meta Platforms(FB), formerly Facebook, has not recovered from its December earnings release.The company continues to invest in its cloud and metaverse software.It’s dirt cheap but continuing to grow.The value of Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB) stock has been cut nearly in half by the latest tech wreck.But it will come back.Meta’s growth has slowed but it has not stopped. First quarter revenue was $28 billion, almost $2 billion ahead of a year earlier. Profits were down, but that had been telegraphed months ago. Operating cash flow, meanwhile, surged to over $14 billion, against $12 billion a year earlier.What is mainly happening to the stock is multiple compression. With a market cap of $562 billion, Meta is now selling for 15 times earnings, less if you throw in the $44 billion it has in cash and marketable securities.What Went WrongMeta was one of the first stocks to plummet this year after disappointing earnings, announced in February.Like the latest numbers, those numbers represented only a slowdown, not a loss. Meta earned $10.3 billion and $3.67 per share fully diluted for the three months ending in December. This was down from the previous year because Meta was investing in its “metaverse” software. Revenue was up by 20% at $33.7 billion.The market reacted like Meta was going out of business. The stock dropped nearly $100/share overnight, and it’s down another $40/share since. If you need the money you invested in Meta when it was high, you’re out of luck.Meta took it especially hard because few analysts believe in its metaverse. They see co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg risking tens of billions of dollars on a chimera. They want Meta to share its profits with them in the form of dividends and stock buybacks. Those buybacks have fallen along with the stock, to $7.5 billion in the first quarter from $19 billion the previous quarter.FB Stock StrengthsThere are two reasons not to count Meta out.The most important is its cloud. Its “fleet” of 21 data centers,17 in the U.S., were all bought with cash flow. It doesn’t pay to deliver its services, the way rivals like Snap(NASDAQ:SNAP) and TikTok do.If Meta wanted, it could easily monetize this cloud by letting other services use it. It has chosen not to do so. But it remains a “Cloud Czar,” just as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), which also doesn’t rent its capacity, remains a Cloud Czar. It controls the infrastructure that runs the world.The second strength is the source of its revenue. You may hate Facebook, but billions of people in the developing world depend on the free services of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp for connecting to world markets. Facebook may be in a fight over regulation with the U.S. and European governments, but it has accommodated itself to regulation in these other places and continues to grow.In short, what Meta has are First World problems.The Bottom Line on FB StockI don’t own Meta stock. I don’t trust Zuckerberg any further than I could throw him.But Meta stock will rise at some point.It is still growing. Meta still owns its own infrastructure. It’s still inching forward with the metaverse, opening a retail store in Silicon Valley to sell its Reality Labs headsets. Analysts are appalled that Meta is prepared to lose $10 billion on Reality Labs this year, but it’s money Meta can afford to lose and still make a profit.Bear markets are temporary. Tech wrecks are, too. The companies with the cash and infrastructure to survive them gain huge opportunities as competitors fail. If you’re looking out five years from now, you can buy Meta Platforms stock here and, most likely, you’ll make money.Even if you believe Zuckerberg is a lunatic and the metaverse is ridiculous Facebook will go on.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065656633,"gmtCreate":1652190956822,"gmtModify":1676535048723,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least not another doomsday prediction","listText":"At least not another doomsday prediction","text":"At least not another doomsday prediction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065656633","repostId":"2234660013","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234660013","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652186177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234660013?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 20:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Can Cool Inflation This Year and Economic Growth Will Continue, Williams Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234660013","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"New York Fed President sees core inflation slowing to 4.2% rate while economy grows at 2% in 2022The","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>New York Fed President sees core inflation slowing to 4.2% rate while economy grows at 2% in 2022</p><p>The Federal Reserve can bring inflation down while maintaining a strong economy this year, said New York Fed President John Williams.</p><p>&#34;While the task is difficult, it is not insurmountable. We have the tools to return balance to the economy and restore price stability, and we are committed to using them,&#34; Williams said in a speech at an economic conference in Germany.</p><p>The Fed has already increased its benchmark interest rate to a range of 0.75%-1% and Williams said the central bank will move expeditiously to bring this rate back to &#34;more normal levels&#34; this year.</p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already signaled the central bank intends to raise its policy rate 1 percentage point over the next two meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a range of 1.75% -2%.</p><p>At the same time, the Fed is starting to reduce the size of its $9 trillion holdings of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p>&#34;Our monetary policy actions will cool the demand side of the equation,&#34; Williams said.</p><p>The New York Fed president said he expects core inflation -- measured by the Fed&#39;s favorite personal consumption expenditure price index -- to cool to nearly 4% this year -- down from 5.2% in March -- before falling to about 2.5% in 2023.</p><p>At the same time, the labor market and economy will continue to show &#34;strength and resilience,&#34; he said.</p><p>In 2022, Williams expects GDP growth to be around 2%, he said -- down from a 5.7% rate last year, but still close to its recent trend. The unemployment rate should remain &#34;around its current low level&#34; of 3.6%, he added.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tools are especially powerful in housing and durable goods -- the very sectors that are seeing the greatest imbalances and signs of overheating, he said.</p><p>Higher interest rates will cool demand in these rate-sensitive sectors to levels better aligned with supply. This will turn down the heat in the labor market, reducing the imbalance between job openings and available labor supply.</p><p>Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average  were higher on Tuesday after a steep selloff over the last three days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved down closer to 3%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Can Cool Inflation This Year and Economic Growth Will Continue, Williams Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Can Cool Inflation This Year and Economic Growth Will Continue, Williams Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-10 20:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>New York Fed President sees core inflation slowing to 4.2% rate while economy grows at 2% in 2022</p><p>The Federal Reserve can bring inflation down while maintaining a strong economy this year, said New York Fed President John Williams.</p><p>&#34;While the task is difficult, it is not insurmountable. We have the tools to return balance to the economy and restore price stability, and we are committed to using them,&#34; Williams said in a speech at an economic conference in Germany.</p><p>The Fed has already increased its benchmark interest rate to a range of 0.75%-1% and Williams said the central bank will move expeditiously to bring this rate back to &#34;more normal levels&#34; this year.</p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already signaled the central bank intends to raise its policy rate 1 percentage point over the next two meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a range of 1.75% -2%.</p><p>At the same time, the Fed is starting to reduce the size of its $9 trillion holdings of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p>&#34;Our monetary policy actions will cool the demand side of the equation,&#34; Williams said.</p><p>The New York Fed president said he expects core inflation -- measured by the Fed&#39;s favorite personal consumption expenditure price index -- to cool to nearly 4% this year -- down from 5.2% in March -- before falling to about 2.5% in 2023.</p><p>At the same time, the labor market and economy will continue to show &#34;strength and resilience,&#34; he said.</p><p>In 2022, Williams expects GDP growth to be around 2%, he said -- down from a 5.7% rate last year, but still close to its recent trend. The unemployment rate should remain &#34;around its current low level&#34; of 3.6%, he added.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tools are especially powerful in housing and durable goods -- the very sectors that are seeing the greatest imbalances and signs of overheating, he said.</p><p>Higher interest rates will cool demand in these rate-sensitive sectors to levels better aligned with supply. This will turn down the heat in the labor market, reducing the imbalance between job openings and available labor supply.</p><p>Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average  were higher on Tuesday after a steep selloff over the last three days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved down closer to 3%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234660013","content_text":"New York Fed President sees core inflation slowing to 4.2% rate while economy grows at 2% in 2022The Federal Reserve can bring inflation down while maintaining a strong economy this year, said New York Fed President John Williams.\"While the task is difficult, it is not insurmountable. We have the tools to return balance to the economy and restore price stability, and we are committed to using them,\" Williams said in a speech at an economic conference in Germany.The Fed has already increased its benchmark interest rate to a range of 0.75%-1% and Williams said the central bank will move expeditiously to bring this rate back to \"more normal levels\" this year.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already signaled the central bank intends to raise its policy rate 1 percentage point over the next two meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a range of 1.75% -2%.At the same time, the Fed is starting to reduce the size of its $9 trillion holdings of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\"Our monetary policy actions will cool the demand side of the equation,\" Williams said.The New York Fed president said he expects core inflation -- measured by the Fed's favorite personal consumption expenditure price index -- to cool to nearly 4% this year -- down from 5.2% in March -- before falling to about 2.5% in 2023.At the same time, the labor market and economy will continue to show \"strength and resilience,\" he said.In 2022, Williams expects GDP growth to be around 2%, he said -- down from a 5.7% rate last year, but still close to its recent trend. The unemployment rate should remain \"around its current low level\" of 3.6%, he added.The Fed's monetary policy tools are especially powerful in housing and durable goods -- the very sectors that are seeing the greatest imbalances and signs of overheating, he said.Higher interest rates will cool demand in these rate-sensitive sectors to levels better aligned with supply. This will turn down the heat in the labor market, reducing the imbalance between job openings and available labor supply.Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average  were higher on Tuesday after a steep selloff over the last three days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved down closer to 3%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065651632,"gmtCreate":1652190847826,"gmtModify":1676535048692,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least not another doomsday prediction.","listText":"At least not another doomsday prediction.","text":"At least not another doomsday prediction.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065651632","repostId":"2234660013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062714613,"gmtCreate":1652107196632,"gmtModify":1676535030841,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang in there","listText":"Hang in there","text":"Hang in there","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062714613","repostId":"1185194199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185194199","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652107248,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185194199?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185194199","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off conti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce1ceffc0ddf07f727c40f44cf09df6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The S&amp;P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.</p><p>Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> were all down more than 3%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> dipped about 5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a> marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a> and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 22:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce1ceffc0ddf07f727c40f44cf09df6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The S&amp;P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.</p><p>Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> were all down more than 3%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> dipped about 5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a> marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a> and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185194199","content_text":"Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.The S&P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. Amazon and Apple were all down more than 3%, while Tesla and Nvidia dipped about 5%.Boeing marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether Chevron which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. Home Depot and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062712945,"gmtCreate":1652107014287,"gmtModify":1676535030787,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang in there","listText":"Hang in there","text":"Hang in there","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062712945","repostId":"1185194199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061665545,"gmtCreate":1651622739739,"gmtModify":1676534936668,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","listText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","text":"Keep advancing, long AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061665545","repostId":"2232095511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069539922,"gmtCreate":1651307394368,"gmtModify":1676534888442,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","listText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","text":"Easy come, easy go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069539922","repostId":"2231260527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060369130,"gmtCreate":1651103563899,"gmtModify":1676534849582,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Delightful","listText":"Delightful","text":"Delightful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060369130","repostId":"1164859165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164859165","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1651100840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164859165?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Shares Surge 18% After Facebook Ekes Out User Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164859165","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Facebook rebounded from a drop in users early this year and its parent Meta  posted a pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Facebook rebounded from a drop in users early this year and its parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta </a> posted a profit ahead of Wall Street targets, defying low investor expectations with a quarterly report that sent shares up 18%.</p><p>Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said that the company would scale back costs and was investing in artificial intelligence tools to improve recommendations and ads, a sign Meta is buckling down to make money while working on its long-term ambitions to build the metaverse.</p><p>Its stock rose over 18% in after-hours trade on Wednesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0712bddf11838c263ab421e4fb49c365\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meta&#39;s profit soundly beat Wall Street targets at $2.72 per share, compared with an average analyst estimate of $2.56, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The earning beats were tempered by Meta recording its slowest revenue growth in a decade.</p><p>Facebook daily active users (DAU), a key metric for advertisers, were 1.96 billion, slightly higher than the estimate of 1.95 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Monthly active users came in at 2.94 billion, missing Wall Street estimates by 30 million.</p><p>Meta has lost about half of its value since the start of the year, after a dismal February earnings report when Facebook&#39;s daily active users declined for the first time and it forecast a gloomy quarter, blaming ongoing factors including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>&#39;s privacy changes and increased competition from platforms like ByteDance&#39;s TikTok.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s good news that Meta somehow managed to eke out growth in DAU. It needed to show some sort of turnaround from last quarter&#39;s performance,&#34; Insider Intelligence analyst Debra Williamson said.</p><p>&#34;However, growth in monthly active users is slowing quickly. A few quarters ago it could count on developing markets to keep the growth engine going but it&#39;s likely that even these high-growth opportunities are starting to dry up,&#34; she said.</p><p>Total revenue, the bulk of which comes from ad sales, rose 7% to $27.91 billion in the first quarter, but missed analysts&#39; estimates of $28.20 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p>In a conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner cited factors including a slowdown in ecommerce after rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a loss of revenue in Russia and reduced ad demand amid global economic uncertainty.</p><p>Russia banned Facebook and Instagram in March, finding Meta guilty of &#34;extremist activity&#34; amid Moscow&#39;s crackdown on social media during its invasion of Ukraine. Meta&#39;s messaging service WhatsApp is not affected by the ban. Meta has also barred advertisers in Russia from creating and running ads anywhere in the world.</p><p>Meta forecast second-quarter revenue between $28 billion and $30 billion. Analysts on average were expecting current-quarter revenue of $30.63 billion. The company said its outlook reflected factors including the war in Ukraine and said it was monitoring the potential impact of regulatory moves in Europe.</p><p>Recent earnings reports from Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet Inc </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc </a> have signaled the impact of the global economic turmoil on digital ads spending, amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.</p><p>&#34;I think following Google, expectations were just for the absolute worst,&#34; said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. &#34;When they came in with EPS above estimates, I think people who had shorted the stock and those that had...given up on it decided to come back in.&#34;</p><p>Meta lowered its expected 2022 total expenses to between $87 billion and $92 billion, down from its prior outlook of $90 billion to $95 billion.</p><p>Meta saw quarterly revenue of $695 million for its Reality Labs hardware division, which is home to its augmented and virtual reality efforts. It reported $3 billion in losses from operations from these metaverse ambitions.</p><p>The company has warned it will take billions of dollars and multiple years to realize its aims around building the metaverse, a futuristic idea of virtual environments where users can work, socialize and play.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Shares Surge 18% After Facebook Ekes Out User Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Shares Surge 18% After Facebook Ekes Out User Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-28 07:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Facebook rebounded from a drop in users early this year and its parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta </a> posted a profit ahead of Wall Street targets, defying low investor expectations with a quarterly report that sent shares up 18%.</p><p>Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said that the company would scale back costs and was investing in artificial intelligence tools to improve recommendations and ads, a sign Meta is buckling down to make money while working on its long-term ambitions to build the metaverse.</p><p>Its stock rose over 18% in after-hours trade on Wednesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0712bddf11838c263ab421e4fb49c365\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meta&#39;s profit soundly beat Wall Street targets at $2.72 per share, compared with an average analyst estimate of $2.56, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The earning beats were tempered by Meta recording its slowest revenue growth in a decade.</p><p>Facebook daily active users (DAU), a key metric for advertisers, were 1.96 billion, slightly higher than the estimate of 1.95 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Monthly active users came in at 2.94 billion, missing Wall Street estimates by 30 million.</p><p>Meta has lost about half of its value since the start of the year, after a dismal February earnings report when Facebook&#39;s daily active users declined for the first time and it forecast a gloomy quarter, blaming ongoing factors including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>&#39;s privacy changes and increased competition from platforms like ByteDance&#39;s TikTok.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s good news that Meta somehow managed to eke out growth in DAU. It needed to show some sort of turnaround from last quarter&#39;s performance,&#34; Insider Intelligence analyst Debra Williamson said.</p><p>&#34;However, growth in monthly active users is slowing quickly. A few quarters ago it could count on developing markets to keep the growth engine going but it&#39;s likely that even these high-growth opportunities are starting to dry up,&#34; she said.</p><p>Total revenue, the bulk of which comes from ad sales, rose 7% to $27.91 billion in the first quarter, but missed analysts&#39; estimates of $28.20 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p>In a conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner cited factors including a slowdown in ecommerce after rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a loss of revenue in Russia and reduced ad demand amid global economic uncertainty.</p><p>Russia banned Facebook and Instagram in March, finding Meta guilty of &#34;extremist activity&#34; amid Moscow&#39;s crackdown on social media during its invasion of Ukraine. Meta&#39;s messaging service WhatsApp is not affected by the ban. Meta has also barred advertisers in Russia from creating and running ads anywhere in the world.</p><p>Meta forecast second-quarter revenue between $28 billion and $30 billion. Analysts on average were expecting current-quarter revenue of $30.63 billion. The company said its outlook reflected factors including the war in Ukraine and said it was monitoring the potential impact of regulatory moves in Europe.</p><p>Recent earnings reports from Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet Inc </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc </a> have signaled the impact of the global economic turmoil on digital ads spending, amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.</p><p>&#34;I think following Google, expectations were just for the absolute worst,&#34; said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. &#34;When they came in with EPS above estimates, I think people who had shorted the stock and those that had...given up on it decided to come back in.&#34;</p><p>Meta lowered its expected 2022 total expenses to between $87 billion and $92 billion, down from its prior outlook of $90 billion to $95 billion.</p><p>Meta saw quarterly revenue of $695 million for its Reality Labs hardware division, which is home to its augmented and virtual reality efforts. It reported $3 billion in losses from operations from these metaverse ambitions.</p><p>The company has warned it will take billions of dollars and multiple years to realize its aims around building the metaverse, a futuristic idea of virtual environments where users can work, socialize and play.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164859165","content_text":"(Reuters) - Facebook rebounded from a drop in users early this year and its parent Meta  posted a profit ahead of Wall Street targets, defying low investor expectations with a quarterly report that sent shares up 18%.Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said that the company would scale back costs and was investing in artificial intelligence tools to improve recommendations and ads, a sign Meta is buckling down to make money while working on its long-term ambitions to build the metaverse.Its stock rose over 18% in after-hours trade on Wednesday.Meta's profit soundly beat Wall Street targets at $2.72 per share, compared with an average analyst estimate of $2.56, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The earning beats were tempered by Meta recording its slowest revenue growth in a decade.Facebook daily active users (DAU), a key metric for advertisers, were 1.96 billion, slightly higher than the estimate of 1.95 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Monthly active users came in at 2.94 billion, missing Wall Street estimates by 30 million.Meta has lost about half of its value since the start of the year, after a dismal February earnings report when Facebook's daily active users declined for the first time and it forecast a gloomy quarter, blaming ongoing factors including Apple's privacy changes and increased competition from platforms like ByteDance's TikTok.\"It's good news that Meta somehow managed to eke out growth in DAU. It needed to show some sort of turnaround from last quarter's performance,\" Insider Intelligence analyst Debra Williamson said.\"However, growth in monthly active users is slowing quickly. A few quarters ago it could count on developing markets to keep the growth engine going but it's likely that even these high-growth opportunities are starting to dry up,\" she said.Total revenue, the bulk of which comes from ad sales, rose 7% to $27.91 billion in the first quarter, but missed analysts' estimates of $28.20 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.In a conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner cited factors including a slowdown in ecommerce after rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a loss of revenue in Russia and reduced ad demand amid global economic uncertainty.Russia banned Facebook and Instagram in March, finding Meta guilty of \"extremist activity\" amid Moscow's crackdown on social media during its invasion of Ukraine. Meta's messaging service WhatsApp is not affected by the ban. Meta has also barred advertisers in Russia from creating and running ads anywhere in the world.Meta forecast second-quarter revenue between $28 billion and $30 billion. Analysts on average were expecting current-quarter revenue of $30.63 billion. The company said its outlook reflected factors including the war in Ukraine and said it was monitoring the potential impact of regulatory moves in Europe.Recent earnings reports from Google parent Alphabet Inc  and Snap Inc  have signaled the impact of the global economic turmoil on digital ads spending, amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.\"I think following Google, expectations were just for the absolute worst,\" said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. \"When they came in with EPS above estimates, I think people who had shorted the stock and those that had...given up on it decided to come back in.\"Meta lowered its expected 2022 total expenses to between $87 billion and $92 billion, down from its prior outlook of $90 billion to $95 billion.Meta saw quarterly revenue of $695 million for its Reality Labs hardware division, which is home to its augmented and virtual reality efforts. It reported $3 billion in losses from operations from these metaverse ambitions.The company has warned it will take billions of dollars and multiple years to realize its aims around building the metaverse, a futuristic idea of virtual environments where users can work, socialize and play.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088770373,"gmtCreate":1650387713153,"gmtModify":1676534711648,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","listText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","text":"Sounding very pessimistic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088770373","repostId":"1134362695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9015213830,"gmtCreate":1649484664028,"gmtModify":1676534520280,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More upside for PLTR","listText":"More upside for PLTR","text":"More upside for PLTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015213830","repostId":"1179777825","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179777825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649469608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179777825?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-09 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179777825","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s and Snowflake&#39;s shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies&#39; forward-looking guidance disappointed the market.</li><li>The long-term outlook for both SNOW and PLTR is good, considering the growth in new data creation and the expected revenue increase and profit margin expansion for the two companies.</li><li>Palantir is the more attractive Buy of the two stocks, taking into account both valuations and key risk factors.</li></ul><p>Elevator Pitch</p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a better buy compared with Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). I prefer PLTR over SNOW because the former has maintained a good balance between revenue growth and profit margins. Palantir is expected to grow its top line by more than +30% every year going forward, while still delivering normalized net profit margins of above +20% in the future. In comparison, Snowflake&#39;s top line growth expectations are better, but it is relatively less profitable. More importantly, Palantir is much cheaper than Snowflake based on the forward Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric.</p><p>How Are SNOW And PLTR&#39;s Stock Performance?</p><p>The year-to-date stock price performance of SNOW and PLTR have been poor on both an absolute and relative basis.</p><p><b>Snowflake&#39;s And Palantir&#39;s 2022 Year-To-Date Share Price Performance</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfec436e13ecbd10b4390c8ec9c312b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The shares of Palantir and Snowflake were down by -29.5% and -37.4%, respectively, so far this year. During the same period, the S&amp;P 500 declined by a relatively modest -5.2%. Both SNOW and PLTR saw their shares fall the most around mid-March 2022. March 11, 2022, <i>Seeking Alpha News</i>articlehighlighted that &#34;Snowflake shares fell sharply&#34; on the day alongside &#34;several other cloud-related stocks, as investors continued to shun technology stocks.&#34;</p><p>Apart from weak investor sentiment, which has hurt the share price performance of technology stocks in general, there are also company-specific headwinds relating to Snowflake and Palantir, which I detail in the next section.</p><p>SNOW And PLTR Stock Key Metrics</p><p>Both SNOW&#39;s and PLTR&#39;s forward-looking guidance disappointed the market. This was a key factor that led to the sell-down in their shares in 2022 year-to-date.</p><p>Starting with Palantir, the company released the company&#39;s Q4 2021 financial results in a media release issued on February 17, 2022, before the market opened. PLTR&#39;s shares subsequently fell by -16% to close at $11.77 on the day of the earnings release. Palantir has yet to fully recover from its post-results announcement correction, as its last closing share price of $12.84 as of April 7, 2022, was still -8% below its pre-results stock price of $13.97 (closing price on February 16th).</p><p>PLTR&#39;s top line expanded by +34% YOY to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. This was+4%above what the market had expected. The company&#39;s robust revenue growth was driven by a +71% YOY increase in the number of customers, from 139 as of December 31, 2020, to 237 as of year-end 2021, as per its recent quarterly results presentation. Palantir grew its client base much faster than what Wall Street was expecting; the sell-side&#39;s consensus 2021 year-end estimate was 219 clients, according to<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>.</p><p>However, Palantir&#39;s non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share contracted from $0.03 in Q4 2020 to $0.02 in Q4 2021. More significantly, PLTR&#39;s fourth quarter bottom line was approximately-44%below the market consensus EPS forecast. Palantir&#39;s total adjusted costs (excluding stock-based compensation) rose by +42% YOY to $309 million in the most recent quarter. This was largely attributable to a substantial jump in commercial sales headcount, from 12 as of end-2020 to 80 as of December 31, 2021, as indicated in PLTR&#39;s Q4 2021 results presentation.</p><p>Looking forward, PLTR&#39;s revenue guidance was encouraging. As per its Q4 2021 earnings press release, Palantir guided for Q1 2022 revenue of $443 million (implying +30% YOY top line expansion) and &#34;annual revenue growth of 30% or greater through 2025.&#34;</p><p>However, Palantir&#39;s near-term profitability guidance didn&#39;t meet market expectations. The company expects to achieve a non-GAAP adjusted operating profit margin of 23% in the first quarter of this year, which is much lower than Wall Street&#39;s consensus Q1 2022 operating margin estimate of 28%, as per<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>. At the <i>Morgan Stanley</i>(MS)Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 9, 2022, PLTR explained that &#34;the investments in the product&#34; in 2021 &#34;drove more improvement faster than we actually thought they might,&#34; and the company is &#34;giving ourselves a little space there to invest as aggressively as possible.&#34;</p><p>Moving on to Snowflake, its Q4 2021 revenue of $360 million beat the sell-side consensus by+3%, and this represented a +102% YOY growth. But SNOW&#39;s shares still dropped by -15%, from a $264.69 close on March 2, 2022, to $224.02 on March 3, 2022 (post-earnings release). In the next one month or so, Snowflake&#39;s stock price declined further, closing at $213.88 as of April 7, 2022.</p><p>SNOW&#39;s shares performed poorly because investors were unsatisfied with the company&#39;s fiscal 2023 (YE January 31) revenue growth guidance. Based on the midpoint of Snowflake&#39;s management, the company expected its revenue to increase by +66% in FY 2023. This implied a substantial slowdown in SNOW&#39;s top line expansion, as the company&#39;s sales grew by +106% in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Snowflake attributed the weaker-than-expected revenue growth guidance for FY 2023 to platform performance improvements, which will provide more value to its clients. SNOW acknowledged at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 8, 2022, that &#34;every performance improvement we do, we may have a revenue hit,&#34; but it stressed that &#34;those customers are consuming more&#34; in around half a year&#39;s time.</p><p>In the subsequent two sections of the article, I will touch on the similarities and the differences between Palantir and Snowflake.</p><p>Do Snowflake And Palantir Share The Same Market?</p><p>Snowflake and Palantir do share the same market to a large extent.</p><p>A December 2020research report published by <i>Harris Williams</i> classified both PLTR and SNOW as infrastructure software companies. More specifically, the investment bank placed these two companies in the &#34;data&#34; sub-segment of the infrastructure software sector alongside other listed companies like Splunk (SPLK) and Alteryx (AYX), among others.</p><p><b>Harris Williams&#39;Definition Of The Data Sub-Segment Of The Infrastructure Software Sector</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d28544977ca9c17ef60304a8f96c55\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Harris Williams</p><p>In a blog post published on November 11, 2020, Palantir describes itself as a &#34;software company&#34; which builds &#34;digital infrastructure for data-driven operations.&#34; This provides support for Harris Williams&#39; categorization of PLTR as an infrastructure company that belongs in the data sub-category.</p><p>In summary, both companies operate in the infrastructure software market. This is also where the similarities between PLTR and SNOW end, as I highlight in the next section.</p><p>How Do Snowflake And Palantir Differ?</p><p>Referring to PLTR&#39;s November 2020 blog post (which I referred to in the preceding section) again, Palantir mentioned that it plays the role of &#34;data processor.&#34; PLTR emphasized that its platforms &#34;allow organizations to better manage&#34; data &#34;by bringing the right data to the people&#34; and enabling &#34;them to take data-driven decisions&#34; and &#34;conduct sophisticated analytic.&#34;</p><p>In contrast, Snowflake&#39;s cloud data platform, known as Data Cloud, is mainly focused on data warehousing and data sharing; and it partners with other companies to offer solutions such as data analytics to its clients, as per the chart below.</p><p><b>SNOW&#39;s Data Cloud Platform And Partnerships With Other Data Analytics Companies</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced24e78a2353a0f9f8a45e9fab883b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Snowflake</p><p>I touch on the two companies&#39; growth prospects in the long run in the next section.</p><p>What Are Snowflake And Palantir&#39;s Long-Term Outlooks?</p><p>Both Snowflake and Palantir have long growth runways.</p><p>Interactive Data Trends (IDC) has forecast that new data created will expand at a CAGR of +23%, from 64.1ZB in 2020 to 175ZB in 2025, according to January 31, 2022, article published in <i>CDO Trends</i>. As more data gets created, it is natural that this will boost demand for data warehousing, sharing, processing, and analytics going forward. This will be positive for both PLTR and SNOW.</p><p>PLTR and SNOW are expected to deliver robust top-line growth and profit margin expansion over the next few years. Snowflake will grow its revenue at a faster pace compared with Palantir, but the former&#39;s profitability will still be inferior to that of the latter.</p><p>According to consensus sell-side financial estimates sourced from<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>, Snowflake&#39;s sales are forecasted to increase by a forward four-year CAGR of +57.0%. Over the same period, Palantir&#39;s top line is predicted to grow by a slower CAGR of +34.5%, which is still pretty decent. In terms of profitability, Wall Street expects PLTR&#39;s normalized net profit margin to widen from 20.0% in 2021 to 26.8% by 2025. In comparison, SNOW&#39;s normalized net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 0.3% in fiscal 2022 (YE January 31 or approximating calendar year 2021) to 9.1% in FY 2026.</p><p>SNOW is a pioneer and leading player in the cloud data warehousing space, which explains its strong revenue growth. But Snowflake&#39;s profit margins are low on an absolute basis and inferior to that of PLTR as well. A key factor contributing to Snowflake&#39;s modest profitability is the company&#39;s dependence on third-party vendors such as Microsoft&#39;s (MSFT) Azure and Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS. In my July 20, 2021,article for SNOW, I noted that the company&#39;s key suppliers of public cloud services are also the company&#39;s competitors and &#34;have a big impact on Snowflake&#39;s path to profitability.&#34; This is the most significant downside risk for SNOW.</p><p>On the other hand, a key concern for Palantir has been its reliance on government organizations. This implies that the company&#39;s revenue can be negatively impacted when the government&#39;s budget shrinks. But there have been encouraging signs with respect to client (commercial customers versus government clients) diversification in recent quarters. PTLR&#39;s commercial segment has been rapidly growing in recent quarters, as its commercial revenue growth went from +28% YOY and +37% YOY in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively, to +47% YOY in Q4 2021.</p><p>In comparison, Palantir&#39;s government revenue increased by a slower +26% YOY in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier section of my article, Palantir has invested significantly in commercial sales headcount so as to further support the growth of the commercial segment.</p><p>In a nutshell, both companies&#39; long-term outlooks are decent. But PLTR has struck a better balance between top-line growth and profitability compared with SNOW, as evidenced by the consensus financial forecasts.</p><p>Is SNOW Or PLTR Stock A Better Buy?</p><p>PLTR stock is a better buy. Palantir boasts superior profit margins, and Snowflake is growing its top line at a much faster pace. But the gap in valuations between the two is huge; PLTR and SNOW are valued by the market at consensus forward next twelve months&#39; Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples of 11.9 times and 30.7 times, respectively, according to<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>. Taking into account the difference in the two companies&#39; valuations and future financial forecasts, I view Palantir as the more appealing investment candidate of the two.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-09 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies' forward-looking guidance disappointed the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179777825","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies' forward-looking guidance disappointed the market.The long-term outlook for both SNOW and PLTR is good, considering the growth in new data creation and the expected revenue increase and profit margin expansion for the two companies.Palantir is the more attractive Buy of the two stocks, taking into account both valuations and key risk factors.Elevator PitchPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a better buy compared with Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). I prefer PLTR over SNOW because the former has maintained a good balance between revenue growth and profit margins. Palantir is expected to grow its top line by more than +30% every year going forward, while still delivering normalized net profit margins of above +20% in the future. In comparison, Snowflake's top line growth expectations are better, but it is relatively less profitable. More importantly, Palantir is much cheaper than Snowflake based on the forward Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric.How Are SNOW And PLTR's Stock Performance?The year-to-date stock price performance of SNOW and PLTR have been poor on both an absolute and relative basis.Snowflake's And Palantir's 2022 Year-To-Date Share Price PerformanceSeeking AlphaThe shares of Palantir and Snowflake were down by -29.5% and -37.4%, respectively, so far this year. During the same period, the S&P 500 declined by a relatively modest -5.2%. Both SNOW and PLTR saw their shares fall the most around mid-March 2022. March 11, 2022, Seeking Alpha Newsarticlehighlighted that \"Snowflake shares fell sharply\" on the day alongside \"several other cloud-related stocks, as investors continued to shun technology stocks.\"Apart from weak investor sentiment, which has hurt the share price performance of technology stocks in general, there are also company-specific headwinds relating to Snowflake and Palantir, which I detail in the next section.SNOW And PLTR Stock Key MetricsBoth SNOW's and PLTR's forward-looking guidance disappointed the market. This was a key factor that led to the sell-down in their shares in 2022 year-to-date.Starting with Palantir, the company released the company's Q4 2021 financial results in a media release issued on February 17, 2022, before the market opened. PLTR's shares subsequently fell by -16% to close at $11.77 on the day of the earnings release. Palantir has yet to fully recover from its post-results announcement correction, as its last closing share price of $12.84 as of April 7, 2022, was still -8% below its pre-results stock price of $13.97 (closing price on February 16th).PLTR's top line expanded by +34% YOY to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. This was+4%above what the market had expected. The company's robust revenue growth was driven by a +71% YOY increase in the number of customers, from 139 as of December 31, 2020, to 237 as of year-end 2021, as per its recent quarterly results presentation. Palantir grew its client base much faster than what Wall Street was expecting; the sell-side's consensus 2021 year-end estimate was 219 clients, according toS&P Capital IQ.However, Palantir's non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share contracted from $0.03 in Q4 2020 to $0.02 in Q4 2021. More significantly, PLTR's fourth quarter bottom line was approximately-44%below the market consensus EPS forecast. Palantir's total adjusted costs (excluding stock-based compensation) rose by +42% YOY to $309 million in the most recent quarter. This was largely attributable to a substantial jump in commercial sales headcount, from 12 as of end-2020 to 80 as of December 31, 2021, as indicated in PLTR's Q4 2021 results presentation.Looking forward, PLTR's revenue guidance was encouraging. As per its Q4 2021 earnings press release, Palantir guided for Q1 2022 revenue of $443 million (implying +30% YOY top line expansion) and \"annual revenue growth of 30% or greater through 2025.\"However, Palantir's near-term profitability guidance didn't meet market expectations. The company expects to achieve a non-GAAP adjusted operating profit margin of 23% in the first quarter of this year, which is much lower than Wall Street's consensus Q1 2022 operating margin estimate of 28%, as perS&P Capital IQ. At the Morgan Stanley(MS)Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 9, 2022, PLTR explained that \"the investments in the product\" in 2021 \"drove more improvement faster than we actually thought they might,\" and the company is \"giving ourselves a little space there to invest as aggressively as possible.\"Moving on to Snowflake, its Q4 2021 revenue of $360 million beat the sell-side consensus by+3%, and this represented a +102% YOY growth. But SNOW's shares still dropped by -15%, from a $264.69 close on March 2, 2022, to $224.02 on March 3, 2022 (post-earnings release). In the next one month or so, Snowflake's stock price declined further, closing at $213.88 as of April 7, 2022.SNOW's shares performed poorly because investors were unsatisfied with the company's fiscal 2023 (YE January 31) revenue growth guidance. Based on the midpoint of Snowflake's management, the company expected its revenue to increase by +66% in FY 2023. This implied a substantial slowdown in SNOW's top line expansion, as the company's sales grew by +106% in fiscal 2022.Snowflake attributed the weaker-than-expected revenue growth guidance for FY 2023 to platform performance improvements, which will provide more value to its clients. SNOW acknowledged at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 8, 2022, that \"every performance improvement we do, we may have a revenue hit,\" but it stressed that \"those customers are consuming more\" in around half a year's time.In the subsequent two sections of the article, I will touch on the similarities and the differences between Palantir and Snowflake.Do Snowflake And Palantir Share The Same Market?Snowflake and Palantir do share the same market to a large extent.A December 2020research report published by Harris Williams classified both PLTR and SNOW as infrastructure software companies. More specifically, the investment bank placed these two companies in the \"data\" sub-segment of the infrastructure software sector alongside other listed companies like Splunk (SPLK) and Alteryx (AYX), among others.Harris Williams'Definition Of The Data Sub-Segment Of The Infrastructure Software SectorHarris WilliamsIn a blog post published on November 11, 2020, Palantir describes itself as a \"software company\" which builds \"digital infrastructure for data-driven operations.\" This provides support for Harris Williams' categorization of PLTR as an infrastructure company that belongs in the data sub-category.In summary, both companies operate in the infrastructure software market. This is also where the similarities between PLTR and SNOW end, as I highlight in the next section.How Do Snowflake And Palantir Differ?Referring to PLTR's November 2020 blog post (which I referred to in the preceding section) again, Palantir mentioned that it plays the role of \"data processor.\" PLTR emphasized that its platforms \"allow organizations to better manage\" data \"by bringing the right data to the people\" and enabling \"them to take data-driven decisions\" and \"conduct sophisticated analytic.\"In contrast, Snowflake's cloud data platform, known as Data Cloud, is mainly focused on data warehousing and data sharing; and it partners with other companies to offer solutions such as data analytics to its clients, as per the chart below.SNOW's Data Cloud Platform And Partnerships With Other Data Analytics CompaniesSnowflakeI touch on the two companies' growth prospects in the long run in the next section.What Are Snowflake And Palantir's Long-Term Outlooks?Both Snowflake and Palantir have long growth runways.Interactive Data Trends (IDC) has forecast that new data created will expand at a CAGR of +23%, from 64.1ZB in 2020 to 175ZB in 2025, according to January 31, 2022, article published in CDO Trends. As more data gets created, it is natural that this will boost demand for data warehousing, sharing, processing, and analytics going forward. This will be positive for both PLTR and SNOW.PLTR and SNOW are expected to deliver robust top-line growth and profit margin expansion over the next few years. Snowflake will grow its revenue at a faster pace compared with Palantir, but the former's profitability will still be inferior to that of the latter.According to consensus sell-side financial estimates sourced fromS&P Capital IQ, Snowflake's sales are forecasted to increase by a forward four-year CAGR of +57.0%. Over the same period, Palantir's top line is predicted to grow by a slower CAGR of +34.5%, which is still pretty decent. In terms of profitability, Wall Street expects PLTR's normalized net profit margin to widen from 20.0% in 2021 to 26.8% by 2025. In comparison, SNOW's normalized net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 0.3% in fiscal 2022 (YE January 31 or approximating calendar year 2021) to 9.1% in FY 2026.SNOW is a pioneer and leading player in the cloud data warehousing space, which explains its strong revenue growth. But Snowflake's profit margins are low on an absolute basis and inferior to that of PLTR as well. A key factor contributing to Snowflake's modest profitability is the company's dependence on third-party vendors such as Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure and Amazon's (AMZN) AWS. In my July 20, 2021,article for SNOW, I noted that the company's key suppliers of public cloud services are also the company's competitors and \"have a big impact on Snowflake's path to profitability.\" This is the most significant downside risk for SNOW.On the other hand, a key concern for Palantir has been its reliance on government organizations. This implies that the company's revenue can be negatively impacted when the government's budget shrinks. But there have been encouraging signs with respect to client (commercial customers versus government clients) diversification in recent quarters. PTLR's commercial segment has been rapidly growing in recent quarters, as its commercial revenue growth went from +28% YOY and +37% YOY in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively, to +47% YOY in Q4 2021.In comparison, Palantir's government revenue increased by a slower +26% YOY in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier section of my article, Palantir has invested significantly in commercial sales headcount so as to further support the growth of the commercial segment.In a nutshell, both companies' long-term outlooks are decent. But PLTR has struck a better balance between top-line growth and profitability compared with SNOW, as evidenced by the consensus financial forecasts.Is SNOW Or PLTR Stock A Better Buy?PLTR stock is a better buy. Palantir boasts superior profit margins, and Snowflake is growing its top line at a much faster pace. But the gap in valuations between the two is huge; PLTR and SNOW are valued by the market at consensus forward next twelve months' Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples of 11.9 times and 30.7 times, respectively, according toS&P Capital IQ. Taking into account the difference in the two companies' valuations and future financial forecasts, I view Palantir as the more appealing investment candidate of the two.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030681276,"gmtCreate":1645708765535,"gmtModify":1676534055849,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold &amp; wait","listText":"Hold &amp; wait","text":"Hold & wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030681276","repostId":"1169064232","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169064232","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645705291,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169064232?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-24 20:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group Reported Quarterly Revenue of $38.07 Billion, an Increase of 10% Year-Over-Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169064232","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alibaba Group today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.Alibaba ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba Group</a> today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.</p><p>Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55 by 3.92 percent.</p><p>The company reported quarterly sales of $38.07 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate.</p><p><b>Business Highlights</b></p><p><b>Revenue</b> was RMB242,580 million (US$38,066 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of China commerce segment by 7% year-over-year to RMB172,226 million (US$27,026 million), Cloud segment by 20% year-over-year to RMB19,539 million (US$3,066 million), Local consumer services segment by 27% year-over-year to RMB12,141 million (US$1,905 million) and International commerce segment by 18% year-over year to RMB16,449 million (US$2,581 million).</p><p><b>Annual active consumers</b> of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.28 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million and 16 million, respectively.</p><p><b>Income from operations </b>was RMB7,068 million (US$1,109 million), a decrease of 86% year-over-year, which included a RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) impairment of goodwill in relation to Digital media and entertainment segment. Excluding this impairment of goodwill, income from operations would have been RMB32,209 million (US$5,054 million), a decrease of 34% year-over-year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to our increased investments in growth initiatives and our increased spending for user growth, as well as our support to merchants.</p><p><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB20,429 million (US$3,206 million) and net income was RMB19,224 million (US$3,017 million), showing year-over-year decreases of 74% and 75%, respectively, primarily due to the impairment of goodwill of RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) and the decrease in net gains arising from the changes in fair value of our equity investments, both of which we excluded from our non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP net income was RMB44,624 million (US$7,002 million), a decrease of 25% year-over-year.</p><p><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB7.51 (US$1.18) and diluted earnings per share was RMB0.94 (US$0.15 or HK$1.15). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.87 (US$2.65), a decrease of 23% year-over-year and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was RMB2.11 (US$0.33 or HK$2.58), a decrease of 23% year-over-year.</p><p>Shares of Alibaba slid 0.38% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f570ee8813fbb5fa73df304c69d3ec\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group Reported Quarterly Revenue of $38.07 Billion, an Increase of 10% Year-Over-Year </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group Reported Quarterly Revenue of $38.07 Billion, an Increase of 10% Year-Over-Year \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-24 20:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba Group</a> today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.</p><p>Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55 by 3.92 percent.</p><p>The company reported quarterly sales of $38.07 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate.</p><p><b>Business Highlights</b></p><p><b>Revenue</b> was RMB242,580 million (US$38,066 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of China commerce segment by 7% year-over-year to RMB172,226 million (US$27,026 million), Cloud segment by 20% year-over-year to RMB19,539 million (US$3,066 million), Local consumer services segment by 27% year-over-year to RMB12,141 million (US$1,905 million) and International commerce segment by 18% year-over year to RMB16,449 million (US$2,581 million).</p><p><b>Annual active consumers</b> of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.28 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million and 16 million, respectively.</p><p><b>Income from operations </b>was RMB7,068 million (US$1,109 million), a decrease of 86% year-over-year, which included a RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) impairment of goodwill in relation to Digital media and entertainment segment. Excluding this impairment of goodwill, income from operations would have been RMB32,209 million (US$5,054 million), a decrease of 34% year-over-year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to our increased investments in growth initiatives and our increased spending for user growth, as well as our support to merchants.</p><p><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB20,429 million (US$3,206 million) and net income was RMB19,224 million (US$3,017 million), showing year-over-year decreases of 74% and 75%, respectively, primarily due to the impairment of goodwill of RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) and the decrease in net gains arising from the changes in fair value of our equity investments, both of which we excluded from our non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP net income was RMB44,624 million (US$7,002 million), a decrease of 25% year-over-year.</p><p><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB7.51 (US$1.18) and diluted earnings per share was RMB0.94 (US$0.15 or HK$1.15). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.87 (US$2.65), a decrease of 23% year-over-year and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was RMB2.11 (US$0.33 or HK$2.58), a decrease of 23% year-over-year.</p><p>Shares of Alibaba slid 0.38% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f570ee8813fbb5fa73df304c69d3ec\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169064232","content_text":"Alibaba Group today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55 by 3.92 percent.The company reported quarterly sales of $38.07 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate.Business HighlightsRevenue was RMB242,580 million (US$38,066 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of China commerce segment by 7% year-over-year to RMB172,226 million (US$27,026 million), Cloud segment by 20% year-over-year to RMB19,539 million (US$3,066 million), Local consumer services segment by 27% year-over-year to RMB12,141 million (US$1,905 million) and International commerce segment by 18% year-over year to RMB16,449 million (US$2,581 million).Annual active consumers of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.28 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million and 16 million, respectively.Income from operations was RMB7,068 million (US$1,109 million), a decrease of 86% year-over-year, which included a RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) impairment of goodwill in relation to Digital media and entertainment segment. Excluding this impairment of goodwill, income from operations would have been RMB32,209 million (US$5,054 million), a decrease of 34% year-over-year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to our increased investments in growth initiatives and our increased spending for user growth, as well as our support to merchants.Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB20,429 million (US$3,206 million) and net income was RMB19,224 million (US$3,017 million), showing year-over-year decreases of 74% and 75%, respectively, primarily due to the impairment of goodwill of RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) and the decrease in net gains arising from the changes in fair value of our equity investments, both of which we excluded from our non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP net income was RMB44,624 million (US$7,002 million), a decrease of 25% year-over-year.Diluted earnings per ADS was RMB7.51 (US$1.18) and diluted earnings per share was RMB0.94 (US$0.15 or HK$1.15). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.87 (US$2.65), a decrease of 23% year-over-year and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was RMB2.11 (US$0.33 or HK$2.58), a decrease of 23% year-over-year.Shares of Alibaba slid 0.38% in premarket trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018478454,"gmtCreate":1649084304376,"gmtModify":1676534447593,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Long&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Long&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Long","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1081d3e777bc16778cec557bb6d464b","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018478454","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061665545,"gmtCreate":1651622739739,"gmtModify":1676534936668,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","listText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","text":"Keep advancing, long AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061665545","repostId":"2232095511","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2232095511","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651619541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232095511?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-04 07:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD (AMD) Jumps on Beat-and-Raise Earnings as Revenues Rise 71% Amid Xilinx Deal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232095511","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) shares gained over 5% after-hours Tuesday following a strong beat-and-raise first ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> (NASDAQ: AMD) shares gained over 5% after-hours Tuesday following a strong beat-and-raise first quarter.</p><p>Non-GAAP net income for Q1 was $1.13 per share, well above the consensus of $0.91. Revenue rose 71% to $5.9 billion and included partial quarter financial results from the Xilinx merger.</p><p>&#34;The first quarter marked a significant inflection point in our journey to scale and transform AMD as we delivered record revenue and closed our strategic acquisition of Xilinx,&#34; said AMD Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su. &#34;Each of our businesses grew by a significant double digit percentage year-over-year, led by EPYC server processor revenue more than doubling for the third straight quarter. Demand remains strong for our leadership products, with our increased full-year guidance reflecting higher AMD organic growth and the addition of the growing Xilinx business.&#34;</p><p>For the second quarter, AMD sees revenue up approximately 69% year-over-year and approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter to $6.3-$6.7 billion, or $6.5 billion at the mid-point, above the consensus of $6.38 billion. The increase is expected to be driven by the addition of Xilinx and higher server, semi-custom and client revenue.</p><p>For the year, AMD sees revenue up approximately 60% to $26.3 billion versus the consensus of $25.15 billion. The results are seen driven by the addition of Xilinx and higher server and semi-custom revenue.</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD (AMD) Jumps on Beat-and-Raise Earnings as Revenues Rise 71% Amid Xilinx Deal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD (AMD) Jumps on Beat-and-Raise Earnings as Revenues Rise 71% Amid Xilinx Deal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-04 07:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20011173><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) shares gained over 5% after-hours Tuesday following a strong beat-and-raise first quarter.Non-GAAP net income for Q1 was $1.13 per share, well above the consensus of $0.91. Revenue ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20011173\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20011173","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2232095511","content_text":"AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) shares gained over 5% after-hours Tuesday following a strong beat-and-raise first quarter.Non-GAAP net income for Q1 was $1.13 per share, well above the consensus of $0.91. Revenue rose 71% to $5.9 billion and included partial quarter financial results from the Xilinx merger.\"The first quarter marked a significant inflection point in our journey to scale and transform AMD as we delivered record revenue and closed our strategic acquisition of Xilinx,\" said AMD Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su. \"Each of our businesses grew by a significant double digit percentage year-over-year, led by EPYC server processor revenue more than doubling for the third straight quarter. Demand remains strong for our leadership products, with our increased full-year guidance reflecting higher AMD organic growth and the addition of the growing Xilinx business.\"For the second quarter, AMD sees revenue up approximately 69% year-over-year and approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter to $6.3-$6.7 billion, or $6.5 billion at the mid-point, above the consensus of $6.38 billion. The increase is expected to be driven by the addition of Xilinx and higher server, semi-custom and client revenue.For the year, AMD sees revenue up approximately 60% to $26.3 billion versus the consensus of $25.15 billion. The results are seen driven by the addition of Xilinx and higher server and semi-custom revenue.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014810208,"gmtCreate":1649638240635,"gmtModify":1676534541777,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very optimistic prediction&nbsp;","listText":"Very optimistic prediction&nbsp;","text":"Very optimistic prediction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014810208","repostId":"1187763771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187763771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649560342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187763771?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-10 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 2030? Analyst Weighs In","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187763771","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding theCyber Rodeo event held this week.All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla, Inc.</b>TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding the Cyber Rodeo event held this week. All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>What Happened:</b> Tesla stock will go from a market capitalization of a little over $1 trillion currently to $10 trillion by 2030, <b>New Street Research</b> analyst <b>Pierre Ferragu</b> said in a tweet. The analyst said the Tesla growth story is slowly taking hold and the company is on track to see unprecedented scale and capture 20% of the auto market.</p><p>Ferragu, however, cautioned that his estimate is neither a forecast nor an investment recommendation, leaving it open to investors to decide for themselves.</p><p>The analyst&#39;s 2030 look ahead assumes 20 million units of vehicle sales and an average selling price of $35,000, translating to vehicle sales of $700 billion. About $1.5 billion will likely come from insurance, $35 billion-$70 billion from full-self driving software and $250 billion from energy, with real AI providing option value.</p><p>The total 2030 revenue will likely come in at $1 trillion, the analyst estimates. Applying a multiple of 8-10 times on estimated sales, the company&#39;s valuation will gallop to about $10 trillion, he added.</p><p><b>Where Will This Leave Tesla Stock:</b> Tesla&#39;s outstanding share count is currently at 1.03 billion. If the share count remains unchanged, the per-share value of Tesla would be around $9,710.</p><p>Tesla detractors and skeptical investors may debate the credibility of Ferragu&#39;s model. Nevertheless, the company is poised to see superlative growth over the coming years. Tesla, according to many sell-side analysts, is not able to keep pace with the surging demand for its vehicles.</p><p>It may now have found a solution with the two more Gigas, in Berlin and Texas, coming online. <b>Loup Fund</b> analyst <b>Gene Munster</b> expects the company to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023.</p><p>Tesla closed Friday&#39;s session down 3% at $1,025.49.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 2030? Analyst Weighs In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Tesla Stock Be In 2030? Analyst Weighs In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-10 11:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding the Cyber Rodeo event held this week. All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187763771","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding the Cyber Rodeo event held this week. All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over the next decade.What Happened: Tesla stock will go from a market capitalization of a little over $1 trillion currently to $10 trillion by 2030, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu said in a tweet. The analyst said the Tesla growth story is slowly taking hold and the company is on track to see unprecedented scale and capture 20% of the auto market.Ferragu, however, cautioned that his estimate is neither a forecast nor an investment recommendation, leaving it open to investors to decide for themselves.The analyst's 2030 look ahead assumes 20 million units of vehicle sales and an average selling price of $35,000, translating to vehicle sales of $700 billion. About $1.5 billion will likely come from insurance, $35 billion-$70 billion from full-self driving software and $250 billion from energy, with real AI providing option value.The total 2030 revenue will likely come in at $1 trillion, the analyst estimates. Applying a multiple of 8-10 times on estimated sales, the company's valuation will gallop to about $10 trillion, he added.Where Will This Leave Tesla Stock: Tesla's outstanding share count is currently at 1.03 billion. If the share count remains unchanged, the per-share value of Tesla would be around $9,710.Tesla detractors and skeptical investors may debate the credibility of Ferragu's model. Nevertheless, the company is poised to see superlative growth over the coming years. Tesla, according to many sell-side analysts, is not able to keep pace with the surging demand for its vehicles.It may now have found a solution with the two more Gigas, in Berlin and Texas, coming online. Loup Fund analyst Gene Munster expects the company to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023.Tesla closed Friday's session down 3% at $1,025.49.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorIdStr":"3572923586954779"},"content":"yes. 10 mil by 2030 will be a great achievement. 20 mil is just a far away dream that's detached from reality.","text":"yes. 10 mil by 2030 will be a great achievement. 20 mil is just a far away dream that's detached from reality.","html":"yes. 10 mil by 2030 will be a great achievement. 20 mil is just a far away dream that's detached from reality."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088770373,"gmtCreate":1650387713153,"gmtModify":1676534711648,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","listText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","text":"Sounding very pessimistic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088770373","repostId":"1134362695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134362695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650382064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134362695?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-19 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134362695","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations.</li><li>Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.</li><li>BABA&#39;s volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA&#39;s largest shareholder.</li></ul><p>Executive Summary</p><p>This year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management&#39;s growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba&#39;s growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.</p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p>News of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn&#39;t come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul&#39;s investment thesis touting Alibaba&#39;s shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and &#34;value for the dollar invested.&#34; Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba&#39;s investors are to its new realities.</p><p>Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was &#34;competitive advantage&#34; is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.</p><p>Munger also mentions a &#34;higher value of a dollar invested&#34; in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.</p><p>Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.</p><p>Revenue Trends</p><p>Alibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.</p><p>Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren&#39;t kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.</p><p>The company faces three main headwinds:</p><ol><li>Macro-economic challenges</li><li>Maturing Chinese Market</li><li>Rising Competition</li></ol><p>The zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google &#34;China Lockdown,&#34; and you&#39;ll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don&#39;t seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street&#39;s 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59845a06664129959a3d7afc696f959b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)</p><p>Alibaba&#39;s macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year&#39;s revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn&#39;t for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.</p><p>The China e-commerce &#34;CEC&#34; segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba&#39;s revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.</p><p>Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.</p><p>The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company&#39;s official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>I don&#39;t believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company&#39;s revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba&#39;s fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.</p><p>Cash Flow And Share Buybacks</p><p>Fundamentally, Alibaba&#39;s business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba&#39;s challenges stem from its inability to manage investors&#39; expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.</p><p>The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O&#39;Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O&#39;Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>How Loyal Is Softbank</p><p>SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba&#39;s share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker&#39;s selloff.</p><p>Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank&#39;s loyalty to Alibaba.</p><p>Summary</p><p>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn&#39;t be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its &#34;competitive advantage.&#34; The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-19 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134362695","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.Executive SummaryThis year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.Investment ThesisNews of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and \"value for the dollar invested.\" Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was \"competitive advantage\" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.Munger also mentions a \"higher value of a dollar invested\" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.Revenue TrendsAlibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.The company faces three main headwinds:Macro-economic challengesMaturing Chinese MarketRising CompetitionThe zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google \"China Lockdown,\" and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.The China e-commerce \"CEC\" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.Cash Flow And Share BuybacksFundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.How Loyal Is SoftbankSoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its \"competitive advantage.\" The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034395666,"gmtCreate":1647788318779,"gmtModify":1676534265863,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know&nbsp;","listText":"Good to know&nbsp;","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034395666","repostId":"2220430742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220430742","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647741823,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220430742?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-20 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Why I'm Not Selling A Single Share","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220430742","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from its ATH.</li><li>Despite increasing revenues by more than tenfold, its stock price dropped down to levels not seen since its early post-IPO days.</li><li>However, things are likely to change in a big way for Alibaba investors.</li><li>Much of the transitory detrimental factors are now behind the company, and more emphasis should go towards positive developments now.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s business remains solid, growth should resume, and the company will likely become more profitable in future years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ca27bada17fe6e115be1eaa4822061\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Philiphotographer/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p>I began investing in Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) in early 2015, shortly after the company IPOed in the U.S. Incidentally, I started buying the stock at a similar price point to Alibaba&#39;s recent low ($70-80). I would be lying if I said that this was not a challenging investment, but Alibaba is remarkably cheap right now. Furthermore, the ongoing concerns surrounding the company are overexaggerated. Moreover, the Chinese government is now taking market-friendly measures to stabilize markets and support stock prices. We could be looking at a tectonic shift in China, and Alibaba shares will likely get a substantial bid moving forward. Despite the recent monster 40% rebound, Alibaba remains a strong buy around the $100 level. Additionally, the company&#39;s share price should continue appreciating as we advance through 2022 and beyond and could reach $300 within the next three years.</p><p><b>Alibaba Skyrockets On Beijing News</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa856eb9a75ce4c55e67c3d28a956fd7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BABA (StockCharts)</span></p><p>We just saw one of the most violent up moves in history. Alibaba soared by approximately $100 billion in market cap in a single day. China will provide additional support to the Chinese economy through monetary policy, and the government reaffirmed that it supports foreign IPOs. The report also stated that China supports listings overseas and will work with the SEC to resolve any issues.</p><p>Concerns over increased regulation, possible delisting fears, and other transitory concerns led Alibaba to unprecedented declines over the last year. The stock cratered by about 77% (peak to trough) from its recent highs, illustrating one of the most significant market cap declines. Recent selling became indiscriminate and panic-driven, likely leading to one of the best buying opportunities in Alibaba&#39;s history. The most striking thing is that nothing material changed about Alibaba&#39;s business. The company&#39;s growth slowed a bit more than expected, and it&#39;s going through a transitory margin compression phase. However, this is not something that warrants a 77% decline or anything even close, and Alibaba&#39;s stock remains exceptionally cheap.</p><p><b>Alibaba Back Then And Now</b></p><p>Back then (in 2015), when I first began buying Alibaba, its stock was around $80. In recent sessions, Alibaba&#39;s stock dipped below $80 for the first time in about six years. In 2015 Alibaba&#39;s revenues were $12.3 billion, and the company recorded approximately $131.6 billion in revenues in its trailing twelve months (&#34;TTM&#34;). Its gross profit was at about $8.4 billion then, and nearly $50 billion in its TTM. I think you get the picture here. Revenues and many profitability metrics have surged in the past six years, yet Alibaba&#39;s stock price was back at its post-IPO lows in recent days. I&#39;ve written many articles on Alibaba, I own the stock, and I continue to argue that Alibaba&#39;s stock price is unjustly low and has a strong probability of moving significantly higher in future years.</p><p><b>Alibaba&#39;s Stock Is Remarkably Cheap</b></p><p>How cheap is Alibaba, even after its unprecedented 40% move higher? Consensus EPS estimates are for approximately $10 in 2023, illustrating that at $100, the stock is only trading at ten times forward EPS estimates. If we look at Alibaba&#39;s revenue projections, we see that the company should still grow revenues by 10-15% in the coming years. Moreover, Alibaba has the potential to become more profitable in future years, suggesting that its EPS projections may be muted and lowballed. The company&#39;s growth dynamic, profitability potential, and low valuation illustrate that its stock remains exceptionally cheap and has a high probability of appreciating substantially in future years.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line: Not Selling A Single Share</b></p><p>I&#39;m not selling a single Alibaba share here. As I&#39;ve written many times, Alibaba and Chinese stocks, in general, went through a transitory phase where overly negative news flow put enormous pressure on stock prices. This problematic period lasted for over one year and caused stock prices, including Alibaba&#39;s, to decline to obscenely oversold and undervalued levels. Now that the negative news is behind us, we will likely see more emphasis on positive developments regarding Alibaba. The company does not face significant threats from the regulation, and the U.S. delisting fears are overblown. Moreover, Alibaba remains a dominant, market-leading e-commerce giant that should continue growing double-digit for several years. Furthermore, the company&#39;s stock is dirt cheap right now, and Alibaba&#39;s share price will likely appreciate considerably as the company advances in future years.</p><p><b>Here&#39;s what Alibaba&#39;s financials could look like as the company moves forward into 2025:</b></p><table><tbody><tr><td>Year</td><td>2022</td><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td></tr><tr><td>Revenues</td><td>$151B</td><td>$167B</td><td>$184B</td><td>$203B</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue growth</td><td>15.3%</td><td>10.6%</td><td>10.2%</td><td>10.3%</td></tr><tr><td>EPS</td><td>$10.25</td><td>$10.55</td><td>$13.12</td><td>$15.85</td></tr><tr><td>Forward P/E</td><td>12</td><td>15</td><td>18</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Price</td><td>$127</td><td>$197</td><td>$285</td><td>$375</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: The Author</p><p>As we advance, Alibaba&#39;s revenue growth should continue to expand, and the company&#39;s profitability should continue improving. Moreover, the company&#39;s transitory negative news flow stage should continue to pass. Therefore, sentiment should strengthen, and Alibaba&#39;s P/E multiple should gradually expand. It is not uncommon for companies with similar growth and profitability dynamics to trade at 20-30 times EPS estimates or higher. Thus, Alibaba should not have a problem getting back up to a 20 P/E multiple in future years. As sentiment improves, its share price could appreciate considerably in the coming years, to my price target of $375 in 2025.</p><p><b>Risks To Consider</b></p><p>While I&#39;m bullish on Alibaba, various factors could occur that may derail my expectations for the company. For instance, the regulation could clamp down further on Alibaba and other Chinese tech giants. Moreover, U.S. regulators could decide to delist the company&#39;s ADRs. Increased competition could impact Alibaba&#39;s growth and profits. The company&#39;s growth could be worse than my current anticipation. Also, Alibaba&#39;s profitability could continue to struggle for various reasons. There are multiple risks to this investment, which is why shares are very cheap right now. In my view, Alibaba remains an elevated risk/high reward investment, and investors should carefully examine the risks before opening a position in Alibaba stock.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Why I'm Not Selling A Single Share</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Why I'm Not Selling A Single Share\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-20 10:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496224-alibaba-why-im-not-selling-single-share><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from its ATH.Despite increasing revenues by more than tenfold, its stock price dropped down to levels ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496224-alibaba-why-im-not-selling-single-share\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496224-alibaba-why-im-not-selling-single-share","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2220430742","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from its ATH.Despite increasing revenues by more than tenfold, its stock price dropped down to levels not seen since its early post-IPO days.However, things are likely to change in a big way for Alibaba investors.Much of the transitory detrimental factors are now behind the company, and more emphasis should go towards positive developments now.Alibaba's business remains solid, growth should resume, and the company will likely become more profitable in future years.Philiphotographer/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesI began investing in Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) in early 2015, shortly after the company IPOed in the U.S. Incidentally, I started buying the stock at a similar price point to Alibaba's recent low ($70-80). I would be lying if I said that this was not a challenging investment, but Alibaba is remarkably cheap right now. Furthermore, the ongoing concerns surrounding the company are overexaggerated. Moreover, the Chinese government is now taking market-friendly measures to stabilize markets and support stock prices. We could be looking at a tectonic shift in China, and Alibaba shares will likely get a substantial bid moving forward. Despite the recent monster 40% rebound, Alibaba remains a strong buy around the $100 level. Additionally, the company's share price should continue appreciating as we advance through 2022 and beyond and could reach $300 within the next three years.Alibaba Skyrockets On Beijing NewsBABA (StockCharts)We just saw one of the most violent up moves in history. Alibaba soared by approximately $100 billion in market cap in a single day. China will provide additional support to the Chinese economy through monetary policy, and the government reaffirmed that it supports foreign IPOs. The report also stated that China supports listings overseas and will work with the SEC to resolve any issues.Concerns over increased regulation, possible delisting fears, and other transitory concerns led Alibaba to unprecedented declines over the last year. The stock cratered by about 77% (peak to trough) from its recent highs, illustrating one of the most significant market cap declines. Recent selling became indiscriminate and panic-driven, likely leading to one of the best buying opportunities in Alibaba's history. The most striking thing is that nothing material changed about Alibaba's business. The company's growth slowed a bit more than expected, and it's going through a transitory margin compression phase. However, this is not something that warrants a 77% decline or anything even close, and Alibaba's stock remains exceptionally cheap.Alibaba Back Then And NowBack then (in 2015), when I first began buying Alibaba, its stock was around $80. In recent sessions, Alibaba's stock dipped below $80 for the first time in about six years. In 2015 Alibaba's revenues were $12.3 billion, and the company recorded approximately $131.6 billion in revenues in its trailing twelve months (\"TTM\"). Its gross profit was at about $8.4 billion then, and nearly $50 billion in its TTM. I think you get the picture here. Revenues and many profitability metrics have surged in the past six years, yet Alibaba's stock price was back at its post-IPO lows in recent days. I've written many articles on Alibaba, I own the stock, and I continue to argue that Alibaba's stock price is unjustly low and has a strong probability of moving significantly higher in future years.Alibaba's Stock Is Remarkably CheapHow cheap is Alibaba, even after its unprecedented 40% move higher? Consensus EPS estimates are for approximately $10 in 2023, illustrating that at $100, the stock is only trading at ten times forward EPS estimates. If we look at Alibaba's revenue projections, we see that the company should still grow revenues by 10-15% in the coming years. Moreover, Alibaba has the potential to become more profitable in future years, suggesting that its EPS projections may be muted and lowballed. The company's growth dynamic, profitability potential, and low valuation illustrate that its stock remains exceptionally cheap and has a high probability of appreciating substantially in future years.The Bottom Line: Not Selling A Single ShareI'm not selling a single Alibaba share here. As I've written many times, Alibaba and Chinese stocks, in general, went through a transitory phase where overly negative news flow put enormous pressure on stock prices. This problematic period lasted for over one year and caused stock prices, including Alibaba's, to decline to obscenely oversold and undervalued levels. Now that the negative news is behind us, we will likely see more emphasis on positive developments regarding Alibaba. The company does not face significant threats from the regulation, and the U.S. delisting fears are overblown. Moreover, Alibaba remains a dominant, market-leading e-commerce giant that should continue growing double-digit for several years. Furthermore, the company's stock is dirt cheap right now, and Alibaba's share price will likely appreciate considerably as the company advances in future years.Here's what Alibaba's financials could look like as the company moves forward into 2025:Year2022202320242025Revenues$151B$167B$184B$203BRevenue growth15.3%10.6%10.2%10.3%EPS$10.25$10.55$13.12$15.85Forward P/E12151820Price$127$197$285$375Source: The AuthorAs we advance, Alibaba's revenue growth should continue to expand, and the company's profitability should continue improving. Moreover, the company's transitory negative news flow stage should continue to pass. Therefore, sentiment should strengthen, and Alibaba's P/E multiple should gradually expand. It is not uncommon for companies with similar growth and profitability dynamics to trade at 20-30 times EPS estimates or higher. Thus, Alibaba should not have a problem getting back up to a 20 P/E multiple in future years. As sentiment improves, its share price could appreciate considerably in the coming years, to my price target of $375 in 2025.Risks To ConsiderWhile I'm bullish on Alibaba, various factors could occur that may derail my expectations for the company. For instance, the regulation could clamp down further on Alibaba and other Chinese tech giants. Moreover, U.S. regulators could decide to delist the company's ADRs. Increased competition could impact Alibaba's growth and profits. The company's growth could be worse than my current anticipation. Also, Alibaba's profitability could continue to struggle for various reasons. There are multiple risks to this investment, which is why shares are very cheap right now. In my view, Alibaba remains an elevated risk/high reward investment, and investors should carefully examine the risks before opening a position in Alibaba stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090922522,"gmtCreate":1643069463145,"gmtModify":1676533770591,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gloomy days ahead&nbsp;","listText":"Gloomy days ahead&nbsp;","text":"Gloomy days ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090922522","repostId":"1153487783","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153487783","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643036174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153487783?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 22:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Slumps Another 6%, Jefferies Says Content Alone Isn't Cutting It for TV Streamer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153487783","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the st","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the streaming TV giant&#39;s shares down more than 6%, Monday, and Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkiwitz cut his rating on the company&#39;s stock.</li><li>Uerkwitz took his view of Netflix (NFLX) to hold from buy, saying there is &#34;too much uncertainty in the near term&#34; surrounding the company following its disappointing quarterly report and outlook last week. On Thursday, Netflix (NFLX) said it added 8.28 million new subscribers during the fourth quarter of 2021, which fell short of its earlier forecasts of 8.5 million subscriber additions. Netflix (NFLX) also said it expects to add just 2.5 million subscribers during the first quarter of this year.</li><li>Those numbers did Netflix (NFLX) no favors on Wall Street, as investors drove the company&#39;s shares down almost 22% on Friday.</li><li>On Monday, Uerkwitz joined in what was a mostly negative chorus in response to Netflix&#39;s (NFLX) subscriber numbers, saying that after &#34;thinking through potential scenarios for what happens next&#34; for the company, it appears Netflix&#39;s (NFLX) spending on new content could be coming to a head.</li><li>&#34;Netflix subscribers are going nowhere,&#34; Uerkwitz said. &#34;However, the cost of acquiring the incremental subscriber has likely become too high.&#34;</li><li>Ueurwitz added that it seems like Netflix (NFLX) can&#39;t just rely on creating a sense of prestige, or exclusivity, around its own original content to drive multitudes of new subscribers to its service.</li><li>&#34;The best content slate we&#39;ve seen is doing little to drive [subscriber] growth,&#34; Uerkwitz said. &#34;If slower subscriber growth is the new normal, we would need to see a change in content [and] captial allocation coupled with a focus on new revenue streams to leverage the large user base [and] content library.&#34;</li><li>Over the weekend, TV ratings-measurement company Nielsen(NYSE:NLSN)released data from its &#34;Streaming Unwrapped 2021&#34; report, which showed Netflix (NFLX) claiming the top nine slots for original programming streamed online. The show<i>Lucifer</i>, topped the chart,with 18.34 billion minutes streamed last year.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Slumps Another 6%, Jefferies Says Content Alone Isn't Cutting It for TV Streamer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Slumps Another 6%, Jefferies Says Content Alone Isn't Cutting It for TV Streamer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 22:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790719-netflix-slumps-another-6-jefferies-says-content-alone-isnt-cutting-it-for-tv-streamer><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the streaming TV giant's shares down more than 6%, Monday, and Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkiwitz cut his ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790719-netflix-slumps-another-6-jefferies-says-content-alone-isnt-cutting-it-for-tv-streamer\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790719-netflix-slumps-another-6-jefferies-says-content-alone-isnt-cutting-it-for-tv-streamer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153487783","content_text":"Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the streaming TV giant's shares down more than 6%, Monday, and Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkiwitz cut his rating on the company's stock.Uerkwitz took his view of Netflix (NFLX) to hold from buy, saying there is \"too much uncertainty in the near term\" surrounding the company following its disappointing quarterly report and outlook last week. On Thursday, Netflix (NFLX) said it added 8.28 million new subscribers during the fourth quarter of 2021, which fell short of its earlier forecasts of 8.5 million subscriber additions. Netflix (NFLX) also said it expects to add just 2.5 million subscribers during the first quarter of this year.Those numbers did Netflix (NFLX) no favors on Wall Street, as investors drove the company's shares down almost 22% on Friday.On Monday, Uerkwitz joined in what was a mostly negative chorus in response to Netflix's (NFLX) subscriber numbers, saying that after \"thinking through potential scenarios for what happens next\" for the company, it appears Netflix's (NFLX) spending on new content could be coming to a head.\"Netflix subscribers are going nowhere,\" Uerkwitz said. \"However, the cost of acquiring the incremental subscriber has likely become too high.\"Ueurwitz added that it seems like Netflix (NFLX) can't just rely on creating a sense of prestige, or exclusivity, around its own original content to drive multitudes of new subscribers to its service.\"The best content slate we've seen is doing little to drive [subscriber] growth,\" Uerkwitz said. \"If slower subscriber growth is the new normal, we would need to see a change in content [and] captial allocation coupled with a focus on new revenue streams to leverage the large user base [and] content library.\"Over the weekend, TV ratings-measurement company Nielsen(NYSE:NLSN)released data from its \"Streaming Unwrapped 2021\" report, which showed Netflix (NFLX) claiming the top nine slots for original programming streamed online. The showLucifer, topped the chart,with 18.34 billion minutes streamed last year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069539922,"gmtCreate":1651307394368,"gmtModify":1676534888442,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","listText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","text":"Easy come, easy go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069539922","repostId":"2231260527","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2231260527","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1651286236,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2231260527?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-30 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Suffers Worst Day in More Than 15 Years, Wiping Away More Than $200 Billion in Market Cap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2231260527","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Worst day for the stock since 2006 is the second largest single-day decline in market cap for a U.S.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Worst day for the stock since 2006 is the second largest single-day decline in market cap for a U.S. company on record, behind only Facebook&#39;s sudden drop earlier this year</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc.</a> shares suffered their worst day in more than 15 years Friday, after the e-commerce and tech giant reported its first quarterly loss in seven years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> shares fell 14.1%, their biggest one-day percentage decline since July 26, 2006. The drop cost Amazon $206.41 billion in market capitalization, the second-largest total for a single-day market cap decline behind only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc.&#39;s (FB)faceplant earlier this year after the Facebook parent company&#39;s fourth-quarter earnings report, according to Dow Jones Market Data group.</p><p>After the surprising loss and forecast reduction, Wall Street analysts were downbeat in their assessment, including multiple price-target cuts.</p><p>&#34;The inflation of wages and shipping costs have been pressuring Amazon&#39;s profitability, and now the war in Ukraine has driven up fuel costs, adding another headwind,&#34; wrote analysts led by Shyam Patel at Susquehanna Financial Group.</p><p>&#34;Also pressuring profitability is excess capacity, as Amazon invested heavily in 2H21 and is now working to reverse the fixed-cost deleverage and increase productivity.&#34;</p><p>Susquehanna rates Amazon stock at positive and cut its price target to $3,800 from $5,000.</p><p>Amazon said it had $6 billion in incremental costs for the quarter, including wages and productivity rates. The company says that it&#39;s seeing improvements and making adjustments to bring that number down.</p><p>The disappointing results didn&#39;t dampen many analysts&#39; view of the future.</p><p>&#34;Amazon is taking the right steps to operate amid a challenging macro environment that includes unforeseen inflation and a supply chain crisis,&#34; wrote Wedbush analysts led by Michael Pachter.</p><p>&#34;We view the Q2:22 guidance provided by the company as being overly conservative, particularly from a profit perspective given favorable mix shift and the potential for labor productivity and capacity leverage improvements. Longer-term, Amazon can drive steady margin expansion by investing in its cloud, fulfillment, and ad businesses.&#34;</p><p>Wedbush rates Amazon stock outperform and cut its target price to $3,500 from $3,950.</p><p>&#34;Several positives keep us constructive on Amazon including 1) strong growth in AWS and Advertising, and 2) prospects for inflationary pressures, productivity loss and fixed cost deleverage to start reversing in 2H22 and FY23, which bodes well for profitability,&#34; wrote Truist Securities, which rates Amazon stock a buy with a $3,500 price target, down from $4,000.</p><p>While Amazon is looking more closely at the costs to the company, shoppers are taking a look at their own costs, which is driving concern for Neil Saunders at GlobalData.</p><p>&#34;As the cost-of-living increases, consumers have started to reduce the amount of product they buy to balance their budgets; volumes in many discretionary categories are turning negative,&#34; Saunders wrote.</p><p>&#34;This affects many retailers and channels, but it is especially chilling for online where a higher proportion of purchases are discretionary and where delivery charges -- at least for those who are not members of services like Prime -- add to the cost. As a key destination for online purchases and as a mature player with the biggest base of online shoppers, Amazon is more exposed to this issue than other players.&#34;</p><p>GlobalData notes that subscription growth decelerated to 13% in the quarter, with the price hike for a Prime membership one of the factors.</p><p>Other analyst groups aren&#39;t as cautious.</p><p>&#34;Amazon cited the many challenges from macro headwinds, ranging from the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation levels and supply chain issues. They did not, however, call out any incremental consumer softness or expectations around reduced demand; a departure from other more discretionary names,&#34; wrote Benchmark&#39;s Daniel Kurnos in a note.</p><p>Benchmark maintained its buy stock rating and lowered its price target to $3,700 from $4,000.</p><p>&#34;If our assessment is correct, 1Q will likely represent the trough period in Amazon&#39;s results, with growth and operating margin improving through 2022 despite disappointing guidance,&#34; wrote Stifel.</p><p>Analysts there point to an easing of omicron-related costs, a Prime Day move to the third quarter and normalizing consumer spending after a period when travel and experience spending spiked.</p><p>Amazon announced that the annual Prime Day event will take place in July. It was in the second quarter in 2021.</p><p>Stifel has a buy rating on Amazon stock and cut its price target to $3,800 from $4,400.</p><p>Amazon&#39;s price target was also lowered at Raymond James (to $3,300 from $3,950, stock rated outperform), RBC Capital Markets (to $3,500 from $3,880, stock maintained at outperform), and JPMorgan (to $4,000 from $4,500, stock rated overweight).</p><p>Amazon shares have slumped 25.5% for the year to date, as the S&amp;P 500 index  has declined 13.3%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Suffers Worst Day in More Than 15 Years, Wiping Away More Than $200 Billion in Market Cap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Suffers Worst Day in More Than 15 Years, Wiping Away More Than $200 Billion in Market Cap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-30 10:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Worst day for the stock since 2006 is the second largest single-day decline in market cap for a U.S. company on record, behind only Facebook&#39;s sudden drop earlier this year</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc.</a> shares suffered their worst day in more than 15 years Friday, after the e-commerce and tech giant reported its first quarterly loss in seven years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> shares fell 14.1%, their biggest one-day percentage decline since July 26, 2006. The drop cost Amazon $206.41 billion in market capitalization, the second-largest total for a single-day market cap decline behind only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc.&#39;s (FB)faceplant earlier this year after the Facebook parent company&#39;s fourth-quarter earnings report, according to Dow Jones Market Data group.</p><p>After the surprising loss and forecast reduction, Wall Street analysts were downbeat in their assessment, including multiple price-target cuts.</p><p>&#34;The inflation of wages and shipping costs have been pressuring Amazon&#39;s profitability, and now the war in Ukraine has driven up fuel costs, adding another headwind,&#34; wrote analysts led by Shyam Patel at Susquehanna Financial Group.</p><p>&#34;Also pressuring profitability is excess capacity, as Amazon invested heavily in 2H21 and is now working to reverse the fixed-cost deleverage and increase productivity.&#34;</p><p>Susquehanna rates Amazon stock at positive and cut its price target to $3,800 from $5,000.</p><p>Amazon said it had $6 billion in incremental costs for the quarter, including wages and productivity rates. The company says that it&#39;s seeing improvements and making adjustments to bring that number down.</p><p>The disappointing results didn&#39;t dampen many analysts&#39; view of the future.</p><p>&#34;Amazon is taking the right steps to operate amid a challenging macro environment that includes unforeseen inflation and a supply chain crisis,&#34; wrote Wedbush analysts led by Michael Pachter.</p><p>&#34;We view the Q2:22 guidance provided by the company as being overly conservative, particularly from a profit perspective given favorable mix shift and the potential for labor productivity and capacity leverage improvements. Longer-term, Amazon can drive steady margin expansion by investing in its cloud, fulfillment, and ad businesses.&#34;</p><p>Wedbush rates Amazon stock outperform and cut its target price to $3,500 from $3,950.</p><p>&#34;Several positives keep us constructive on Amazon including 1) strong growth in AWS and Advertising, and 2) prospects for inflationary pressures, productivity loss and fixed cost deleverage to start reversing in 2H22 and FY23, which bodes well for profitability,&#34; wrote Truist Securities, which rates Amazon stock a buy with a $3,500 price target, down from $4,000.</p><p>While Amazon is looking more closely at the costs to the company, shoppers are taking a look at their own costs, which is driving concern for Neil Saunders at GlobalData.</p><p>&#34;As the cost-of-living increases, consumers have started to reduce the amount of product they buy to balance their budgets; volumes in many discretionary categories are turning negative,&#34; Saunders wrote.</p><p>&#34;This affects many retailers and channels, but it is especially chilling for online where a higher proportion of purchases are discretionary and where delivery charges -- at least for those who are not members of services like Prime -- add to the cost. As a key destination for online purchases and as a mature player with the biggest base of online shoppers, Amazon is more exposed to this issue than other players.&#34;</p><p>GlobalData notes that subscription growth decelerated to 13% in the quarter, with the price hike for a Prime membership one of the factors.</p><p>Other analyst groups aren&#39;t as cautious.</p><p>&#34;Amazon cited the many challenges from macro headwinds, ranging from the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation levels and supply chain issues. They did not, however, call out any incremental consumer softness or expectations around reduced demand; a departure from other more discretionary names,&#34; wrote Benchmark&#39;s Daniel Kurnos in a note.</p><p>Benchmark maintained its buy stock rating and lowered its price target to $3,700 from $4,000.</p><p>&#34;If our assessment is correct, 1Q will likely represent the trough period in Amazon&#39;s results, with growth and operating margin improving through 2022 despite disappointing guidance,&#34; wrote Stifel.</p><p>Analysts there point to an easing of omicron-related costs, a Prime Day move to the third quarter and normalizing consumer spending after a period when travel and experience spending spiked.</p><p>Amazon announced that the annual Prime Day event will take place in July. It was in the second quarter in 2021.</p><p>Stifel has a buy rating on Amazon stock and cut its price target to $3,800 from $4,400.</p><p>Amazon&#39;s price target was also lowered at Raymond James (to $3,300 from $3,950, stock rated outperform), RBC Capital Markets (to $3,500 from $3,880, stock maintained at outperform), and JPMorgan (to $4,000 from $4,500, stock rated overweight).</p><p>Amazon shares have slumped 25.5% for the year to date, as the S&amp;P 500 index  has declined 13.3%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2231260527","content_text":"Worst day for the stock since 2006 is the second largest single-day decline in market cap for a U.S. company on record, behind only Facebook's sudden drop earlier this yearAmazon.com Inc. shares suffered their worst day in more than 15 years Friday, after the e-commerce and tech giant reported its first quarterly loss in seven years.Amazon shares fell 14.1%, their biggest one-day percentage decline since July 26, 2006. The drop cost Amazon $206.41 billion in market capitalization, the second-largest total for a single-day market cap decline behind only Meta Platforms Inc.'s (FB)faceplant earlier this year after the Facebook parent company's fourth-quarter earnings report, according to Dow Jones Market Data group.After the surprising loss and forecast reduction, Wall Street analysts were downbeat in their assessment, including multiple price-target cuts.\"The inflation of wages and shipping costs have been pressuring Amazon's profitability, and now the war in Ukraine has driven up fuel costs, adding another headwind,\" wrote analysts led by Shyam Patel at Susquehanna Financial Group.\"Also pressuring profitability is excess capacity, as Amazon invested heavily in 2H21 and is now working to reverse the fixed-cost deleverage and increase productivity.\"Susquehanna rates Amazon stock at positive and cut its price target to $3,800 from $5,000.Amazon said it had $6 billion in incremental costs for the quarter, including wages and productivity rates. The company says that it's seeing improvements and making adjustments to bring that number down.The disappointing results didn't dampen many analysts' view of the future.\"Amazon is taking the right steps to operate amid a challenging macro environment that includes unforeseen inflation and a supply chain crisis,\" wrote Wedbush analysts led by Michael Pachter.\"We view the Q2:22 guidance provided by the company as being overly conservative, particularly from a profit perspective given favorable mix shift and the potential for labor productivity and capacity leverage improvements. Longer-term, Amazon can drive steady margin expansion by investing in its cloud, fulfillment, and ad businesses.\"Wedbush rates Amazon stock outperform and cut its target price to $3,500 from $3,950.\"Several positives keep us constructive on Amazon including 1) strong growth in AWS and Advertising, and 2) prospects for inflationary pressures, productivity loss and fixed cost deleverage to start reversing in 2H22 and FY23, which bodes well for profitability,\" wrote Truist Securities, which rates Amazon stock a buy with a $3,500 price target, down from $4,000.While Amazon is looking more closely at the costs to the company, shoppers are taking a look at their own costs, which is driving concern for Neil Saunders at GlobalData.\"As the cost-of-living increases, consumers have started to reduce the amount of product they buy to balance their budgets; volumes in many discretionary categories are turning negative,\" Saunders wrote.\"This affects many retailers and channels, but it is especially chilling for online where a higher proportion of purchases are discretionary and where delivery charges -- at least for those who are not members of services like Prime -- add to the cost. As a key destination for online purchases and as a mature player with the biggest base of online shoppers, Amazon is more exposed to this issue than other players.\"GlobalData notes that subscription growth decelerated to 13% in the quarter, with the price hike for a Prime membership one of the factors.Other analyst groups aren't as cautious.\"Amazon cited the many challenges from macro headwinds, ranging from the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation levels and supply chain issues. They did not, however, call out any incremental consumer softness or expectations around reduced demand; a departure from other more discretionary names,\" wrote Benchmark's Daniel Kurnos in a note.Benchmark maintained its buy stock rating and lowered its price target to $3,700 from $4,000.\"If our assessment is correct, 1Q will likely represent the trough period in Amazon's results, with growth and operating margin improving through 2022 despite disappointing guidance,\" wrote Stifel.Analysts there point to an easing of omicron-related costs, a Prime Day move to the third quarter and normalizing consumer spending after a period when travel and experience spending spiked.Amazon announced that the annual Prime Day event will take place in July. It was in the second quarter in 2021.Stifel has a buy rating on Amazon stock and cut its price target to $3,800 from $4,400.Amazon's price target was also lowered at Raymond James (to $3,300 from $3,950, stock rated outperform), RBC Capital Markets (to $3,500 from $3,880, stock maintained at outperform), and JPMorgan (to $4,000 from $4,500, stock rated overweight).Amazon shares have slumped 25.5% for the year to date, as the S&P 500 index  has declined 13.3%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095010809,"gmtCreate":1644766133372,"gmtModify":1676533959793,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful knowledge&nbsp;","listText":"Useful knowledge&nbsp;","text":"Useful knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095010809","repostId":"2211524630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2211524630","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1644700320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2211524630?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 05:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Would Mean for Markets as Biden Warns Putin of 'Severe Costs'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2211524630","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Investors on Friday got a taste of the sort of market shock that could come if Russia invades Ukraine.The spark came as Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned Friday afternoo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors on Friday got a taste of the sort of market shock that could come if Russia invades Ukraine.</p><p>The spark came as Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned Friday afternoon that Russia could attack Ukraine &#34;any day now,&#34; with Russia&#39;s military prepared to begin an invasion if ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.</p><p>U.S. stocks extended a selloff to end sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  dropping more than 500 points and the S&amp;P 500  sinking 1.9%; oil futures surged to a seven-year high that has crude within hailing distance of $100 a barrel; and a round of buying interest in traditional safe-haven assets pulled down Treasury yields while lifting gold, the U.S. dollar  and the Japanese yen .</p><p>Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden spoke by telephone Saturday in a bid to de-escalate the crisis. The White House said Biden &#34;was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia.&#34;</p><p>Analysts and investors have debated the lasting effects of an invasion on financial markets. Here&#39;s what investors need to know:</p><p><b>Energy prices set to surge</b></p><p>Energy prices are expected to soar in the event of an invasion, likely sending the price of crude above the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time since 2014.</p><p>&#34;I think if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, $100 a barrel will be almost assured,&#34; Phil Flynn, market analyst at Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. U.S. benchmark oil futures  ended at a seven-year high of $93.10 on Friday, while Brent crude ,&#34; the global benchmark closed at $94.44 a barrel.</p><p>&#34;More than likely we will spike hard and then drop. The $100-a-barrel area is more likely because inventories are tightest they have been in years,&#34; Flynn said, explaining that a monthly report Friday from the International Energy Agency warning that the crude market was set to tighten further makes any potential supply disruption &#34;all that more ominous.&#34;</p><p>Beyond crude, Russia&#39;s role as a key supplier of natural gas to Western Europe could send prices in the region soaring. Overall, spiking energy prices in Europe and around the world would be the most likely way a Russian invasion would stoke volatility across financial markets, analysts said.</p><p><b>Fed vs. flight to quality</b></p><p>Treasurys are among the most popular havens for investors during bouts of geopolitical uncertainty, so it was no surprise to see yields slide across the curve Friday afternoon. Treasury yields, which move the opposite direction of prices, were vulnerable to a pullback after surging Thursday in the wake of a hotter-than-expected January inflation report that saw traders price in aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve beginning with a potential half-point hike in March.</p><p>Analysts and investors debated how fighting in Ukraine could affect the Federal Reserve&#39;s plans for tightening monetary policy.</p><p>If Ukraine is attacked &#34;it adds more credence to our view that the Fed will be more dovish than the market currently believes as the war would make the outlook even more uncertain,&#34; said Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, in emailed comments.</p><p>Others argued that a jump in energy prices would be likely to underline the Fed&#39;s worries over inflation.</p><p><b>Stocks and geopolitics</b></p><p>Uncertainty and the resulting volatility could make for more rough sledding for stocks in the near term, but analysts noted that U.S. equities have tended to get over geopolitical shocks relatively quickly.</p><p>&#34;You can&#39;t minimize what today&#39;s news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven&#39;t moved stocks much,&#34; said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, in a note, pointing to the chart below:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5061dae5cb70d1704dc703f73fd77f6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>LPL Financial</span></p><p>Indeed, the takeaway from past geopolitical crises may be that it&#39;s best not to sell into a panic, wrote MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert in September.</p><p>He noted data compiled by Ned Davis Research examining the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades before the 9/11 attacks in 2001. In 19 cases, the Dow was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%. In the aftermath of 9/11, which left markets closed for several days, the Dow fell 17.5% at its low but recovered to trade above its Sept. 10 level by Oct. 26, six weeks later.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Would Mean for Markets as Biden Warns Putin of 'Severe Costs'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Would Mean for Markets as Biden Warns Putin of 'Severe Costs'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-13 05:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Investors on Friday got a taste of the sort of market shock that could come if Russia invades Ukraine.</p><p>The spark came as Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned Friday afternoon that Russia could attack Ukraine &#34;any day now,&#34; with Russia&#39;s military prepared to begin an invasion if ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.</p><p>U.S. stocks extended a selloff to end sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  dropping more than 500 points and the S&amp;P 500  sinking 1.9%; oil futures surged to a seven-year high that has crude within hailing distance of $100 a barrel; and a round of buying interest in traditional safe-haven assets pulled down Treasury yields while lifting gold, the U.S. dollar  and the Japanese yen .</p><p>Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden spoke by telephone Saturday in a bid to de-escalate the crisis. The White House said Biden &#34;was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia.&#34;</p><p>Analysts and investors have debated the lasting effects of an invasion on financial markets. Here&#39;s what investors need to know:</p><p><b>Energy prices set to surge</b></p><p>Energy prices are expected to soar in the event of an invasion, likely sending the price of crude above the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time since 2014.</p><p>&#34;I think if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, $100 a barrel will be almost assured,&#34; Phil Flynn, market analyst at Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. U.S. benchmark oil futures  ended at a seven-year high of $93.10 on Friday, while Brent crude ,&#34; the global benchmark closed at $94.44 a barrel.</p><p>&#34;More than likely we will spike hard and then drop. The $100-a-barrel area is more likely because inventories are tightest they have been in years,&#34; Flynn said, explaining that a monthly report Friday from the International Energy Agency warning that the crude market was set to tighten further makes any potential supply disruption &#34;all that more ominous.&#34;</p><p>Beyond crude, Russia&#39;s role as a key supplier of natural gas to Western Europe could send prices in the region soaring. Overall, spiking energy prices in Europe and around the world would be the most likely way a Russian invasion would stoke volatility across financial markets, analysts said.</p><p><b>Fed vs. flight to quality</b></p><p>Treasurys are among the most popular havens for investors during bouts of geopolitical uncertainty, so it was no surprise to see yields slide across the curve Friday afternoon. Treasury yields, which move the opposite direction of prices, were vulnerable to a pullback after surging Thursday in the wake of a hotter-than-expected January inflation report that saw traders price in aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve beginning with a potential half-point hike in March.</p><p>Analysts and investors debated how fighting in Ukraine could affect the Federal Reserve&#39;s plans for tightening monetary policy.</p><p>If Ukraine is attacked &#34;it adds more credence to our view that the Fed will be more dovish than the market currently believes as the war would make the outlook even more uncertain,&#34; said Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, in emailed comments.</p><p>Others argued that a jump in energy prices would be likely to underline the Fed&#39;s worries over inflation.</p><p><b>Stocks and geopolitics</b></p><p>Uncertainty and the resulting volatility could make for more rough sledding for stocks in the near term, but analysts noted that U.S. equities have tended to get over geopolitical shocks relatively quickly.</p><p>&#34;You can&#39;t minimize what today&#39;s news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven&#39;t moved stocks much,&#34; said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, in a note, pointing to the chart below:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5061dae5cb70d1704dc703f73fd77f6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>LPL Financial</span></p><p>Indeed, the takeaway from past geopolitical crises may be that it&#39;s best not to sell into a panic, wrote MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert in September.</p><p>He noted data compiled by Ned Davis Research examining the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades before the 9/11 attacks in 2001. In 19 cases, the Dow was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%. In the aftermath of 9/11, which left markets closed for several days, the Dow fell 17.5% at its low but recovered to trade above its Sept. 10 level by Oct. 26, six weeks later.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211524630","content_text":"Investors on Friday got a taste of the sort of market shock that could come if Russia invades Ukraine.The spark came as Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned Friday afternoon that Russia could attack Ukraine \"any day now,\" with Russia's military prepared to begin an invasion if ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.U.S. stocks extended a selloff to end sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  dropping more than 500 points and the S&P 500  sinking 1.9%; oil futures surged to a seven-year high that has crude within hailing distance of $100 a barrel; and a round of buying interest in traditional safe-haven assets pulled down Treasury yields while lifting gold, the U.S. dollar  and the Japanese yen .Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden spoke by telephone Saturday in a bid to de-escalate the crisis. The White House said Biden \"was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia.\"Analysts and investors have debated the lasting effects of an invasion on financial markets. Here's what investors need to know:Energy prices set to surgeEnergy prices are expected to soar in the event of an invasion, likely sending the price of crude above the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time since 2014.\"I think if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, $100 a barrel will be almost assured,\" Phil Flynn, market analyst at Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. U.S. benchmark oil futures  ended at a seven-year high of $93.10 on Friday, while Brent crude ,\" the global benchmark closed at $94.44 a barrel.\"More than likely we will spike hard and then drop. The $100-a-barrel area is more likely because inventories are tightest they have been in years,\" Flynn said, explaining that a monthly report Friday from the International Energy Agency warning that the crude market was set to tighten further makes any potential supply disruption \"all that more ominous.\"Beyond crude, Russia's role as a key supplier of natural gas to Western Europe could send prices in the region soaring. Overall, spiking energy prices in Europe and around the world would be the most likely way a Russian invasion would stoke volatility across financial markets, analysts said.Fed vs. flight to qualityTreasurys are among the most popular havens for investors during bouts of geopolitical uncertainty, so it was no surprise to see yields slide across the curve Friday afternoon. Treasury yields, which move the opposite direction of prices, were vulnerable to a pullback after surging Thursday in the wake of a hotter-than-expected January inflation report that saw traders price in aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve beginning with a potential half-point hike in March.Analysts and investors debated how fighting in Ukraine could affect the Federal Reserve's plans for tightening monetary policy.If Ukraine is attacked \"it adds more credence to our view that the Fed will be more dovish than the market currently believes as the war would make the outlook even more uncertain,\" said Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, in emailed comments.Others argued that a jump in energy prices would be likely to underline the Fed's worries over inflation.Stocks and geopoliticsUncertainty and the resulting volatility could make for more rough sledding for stocks in the near term, but analysts noted that U.S. equities have tended to get over geopolitical shocks relatively quickly.\"You can't minimize what today's news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven't moved stocks much,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, in a note, pointing to the chart below:LPL FinancialIndeed, the takeaway from past geopolitical crises may be that it's best not to sell into a panic, wrote MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert in September.He noted data compiled by Ned Davis Research examining the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades before the 9/11 attacks in 2001. In 19 cases, the Dow was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%. In the aftermath of 9/11, which left markets closed for several days, the Dow fell 17.5% at its low but recovered to trade above its Sept. 10 level by Oct. 26, six weeks later.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002640125,"gmtCreate":1642001507070,"gmtModify":1676533670754,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative&nbsp;","listText":"Informative&nbsp;","text":"Informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002640125","repostId":"1114732808","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114732808","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641995536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114732808?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-12 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Worth $10, But I'll Buy At $15","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114732808","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's share price has fallen over 30% in the last 6 months, but fundamentals look strong","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s share price has fallen over 30% in the last 6 months, but fundamentals look stronger than ever.</li><li>I see improved profitability in the future and a service that competitors will struggle to replicate.</li><li>Macro headwinds are a challenge, but just.</li><li>At worst, Palantir is worth $10, but I&#39;d definitely add at $15. There&#39;s still plenty of room for the company to surprise investors.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p>Palantir’s(NYSE:PLTR)share price has fallen nearly 30% in the last six months amid a broader tech selloff. Bears have come out of the cave, with some going as far as declaring that the company is worth as little as $5 share.</p><p>Granted, the company has its problems, but it is still a pioneering company in a growing sector. Unlike the naysayers, I do believe that Palantir has a moat and I see evidence that it could achieve higher profitability as it scales.</p><p>What is Palantir’s “fair value”? Being conservative, I could go as low as $10/share, but the market won’t take it that low. At $15, this is a screaming buy due to its long-term potential. Growth in the private sector will be the definitive trend to watch for in the next decade.</p><p><b>Palantir does have a moat (for now)</b></p><p>One of the biggest areas of debate surrounding Palantir is the existence or lack of a “moat” around its business. When it comes to technology like AI, it can be hard for investors to understand just how “unique” a certain technology is.</p><p>Palantir offers Foundry for enterprises and Gotham for governments, which is an AI data analytics tool. Used in the right way and by the right people, it can be used to seamlessly sift through data and find patterns or trends that could potentially do anything from stopping a terrorist attack to optimizing supply chains.</p><p>Is this software unique? There are a lot of other companies in the lucrative space of data analytics, but few that have the capabilities of Palantir. Evidence of this, of course, is the large presence the company has achieved in the public sector. However, what is also misunderstood by many is that Palantir has amassed some of the best talent in the industry.</p><p>It is this combination of talent, which comes at the price of stock-based compensation, and a top of line software/AI, which give Palantir its moat.</p><p><b>Economies of scale are happening</b></p><p>The other main issue that people have with Palantir, is profitability. The company is losing cash every year and funding its operations through stock dilution. However, what people fail to see is that Palantir is funding growth and expansion. If the company wanted to, I believe it could indeed turn a profit as soon as next year. After all, the company has a levered FCF margin of around 35%.</p><p>But profitability isn’t what the company wants, as it is trying to grow revenues and expand. Having said that, for those that believe profitability is a pipedream, I found the most encouraging evidence of economies of scale in the latest earnings call presentation.During the Q&amp;A section, a very interesting point was made regarding the different modules that the company has been able to create for Foundry. In short, Palantir has been able to create specialized versions of Foundry which can be used for specific situations/industries. In other words, the company has been able to standardize its work to a degree. The data problems that one company faces, aren’t unique and from what I gather, Palantir can now deploy previously created modules to solve similar problems while decreasing the workload and deployment time.</p><p><b>How much is Palantir worth now and in the future?</b></p><p>With all of the above said, Palantir doesn’t seem to me like bad company. But is the valuation stretched? That depends on what multiples the market assigns, the actual growth rates, and the level of dilution we see moving forward.</p><p>In a previous article, I forecasted the revenue growth of Palantir based on current trends and estimates, and also looked at a possible trajectory for the overall share growth based on financing needs and balance sheet structure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f751d9a2d6909956f9ca75d692d1eb3\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"261\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir Growth</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d3c17b0966870585d0f4bc51a488ddb\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"759\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir Shares</span></p><p>The projections for 2021 are on the higher side, but the growth fits the overall narrative of the company of going from a 40% growth rate to a stabilized 30% CAGR over the next decade. Also, bear in mind Palantir has typically beaten its revenue forecasts.</p><p>With this revenue and share count, we can easily calculate a target share price, all we need is to assign a P/S multiple.</p><p>In 2021, Palantir has traded at a P/S of around 20 and as high as 30. While I agree that this is on the higher end of the spectrum, it is much more reasonable than assigning a P/S of 5. I would argue the best way to find a reasonable ratio, is to find a comparable company, and I’d say Splunk Inc(NASDAQ:SPLK)is a good start. Splunk, like Palantir, is in the data business, it has similar margins and even a presence in the public sector, making it a close competitor to Palantir.</p><p>Splunk currently has a P/S of around 7.6, but it has also grown revenues at only 10% in the last year, far below Palantir’s 43% growth rate. With this in mind, I could easily justify Palantir having a P/S of 15. Even if you believe both Palantir and Splunk are due for further multiple contractions I think a P/S of 10 for Palantir is as low as the market will go. With that said, I’ll establish a price range using a P/S of 10-15 and using my forecasts for 2022 and 2025.</p><p>Therefore, my price target for 2022 based on P/S would be $11.5-$15.2. By 2025, at the same P/S, the shares would be worth between $24.6-$37. Bear in mind this implies a significant multiple contraction compared to what we have seen in 2021.</p><p><b>Other considerations</b></p><p>I think $10 is a floor that Palantir won’t break. I’d be happy to scoop up those shares at that price, and even at $15. Palantir is well-positioned for long-term growth, and it could pleasantly surprise investors, especially if it can make more inroads in the private sector. For now, indeed, unprofitable companies like Palantir are not fashionable, due to the idea that the Fed will be raising rates “soon”. This is yet to be seen.</p><p>As I’ve mentioned before, inflation will struggle to remain high while money velocity is trending lower. Could we have already seen the highest levels of inflation? Without direct fiscal stimulus (literally sending people money) inflation won’t persist, and without inflation low rates, cheap money and high growth will remain good investments.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>Certainly, anything could happen, and it’s important to have a diversified portfolio of companies, but at these prices, Palantir offers limited downside while holding the potential to surprise investors in the next few months and even years.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Worth $10, But I'll Buy At $15</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Worth $10, But I'll Buy At $15\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-12 21:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479204-palantir-stock-worth-10-dollars-buy-at-15><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's share price has fallen over 30% in the last 6 months, but fundamentals look stronger than ever.I see improved profitability in the future and a service that competitors will struggle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479204-palantir-stock-worth-10-dollars-buy-at-15\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479204-palantir-stock-worth-10-dollars-buy-at-15","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1114732808","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's share price has fallen over 30% in the last 6 months, but fundamentals look stronger than ever.I see improved profitability in the future and a service that competitors will struggle to replicate.Macro headwinds are a challenge, but just.At worst, Palantir is worth $10, but I'd definitely add at $15. There's still plenty of room for the company to surprise investors.Thesis SummaryPalantir’s(NYSE:PLTR)share price has fallen nearly 30% in the last six months amid a broader tech selloff. Bears have come out of the cave, with some going as far as declaring that the company is worth as little as $5 share.Granted, the company has its problems, but it is still a pioneering company in a growing sector. Unlike the naysayers, I do believe that Palantir has a moat and I see evidence that it could achieve higher profitability as it scales.What is Palantir’s “fair value”? Being conservative, I could go as low as $10/share, but the market won’t take it that low. At $15, this is a screaming buy due to its long-term potential. Growth in the private sector will be the definitive trend to watch for in the next decade.Palantir does have a moat (for now)One of the biggest areas of debate surrounding Palantir is the existence or lack of a “moat” around its business. When it comes to technology like AI, it can be hard for investors to understand just how “unique” a certain technology is.Palantir offers Foundry for enterprises and Gotham for governments, which is an AI data analytics tool. Used in the right way and by the right people, it can be used to seamlessly sift through data and find patterns or trends that could potentially do anything from stopping a terrorist attack to optimizing supply chains.Is this software unique? There are a lot of other companies in the lucrative space of data analytics, but few that have the capabilities of Palantir. Evidence of this, of course, is the large presence the company has achieved in the public sector. However, what is also misunderstood by many is that Palantir has amassed some of the best talent in the industry.It is this combination of talent, which comes at the price of stock-based compensation, and a top of line software/AI, which give Palantir its moat.Economies of scale are happeningThe other main issue that people have with Palantir, is profitability. The company is losing cash every year and funding its operations through stock dilution. However, what people fail to see is that Palantir is funding growth and expansion. If the company wanted to, I believe it could indeed turn a profit as soon as next year. After all, the company has a levered FCF margin of around 35%.But profitability isn’t what the company wants, as it is trying to grow revenues and expand. Having said that, for those that believe profitability is a pipedream, I found the most encouraging evidence of economies of scale in the latest earnings call presentation.During the Q&A section, a very interesting point was made regarding the different modules that the company has been able to create for Foundry. In short, Palantir has been able to create specialized versions of Foundry which can be used for specific situations/industries. In other words, the company has been able to standardize its work to a degree. The data problems that one company faces, aren’t unique and from what I gather, Palantir can now deploy previously created modules to solve similar problems while decreasing the workload and deployment time.How much is Palantir worth now and in the future?With all of the above said, Palantir doesn’t seem to me like bad company. But is the valuation stretched? That depends on what multiples the market assigns, the actual growth rates, and the level of dilution we see moving forward.In a previous article, I forecasted the revenue growth of Palantir based on current trends and estimates, and also looked at a possible trajectory for the overall share growth based on financing needs and balance sheet structure.Palantir GrowthPalantir SharesThe projections for 2021 are on the higher side, but the growth fits the overall narrative of the company of going from a 40% growth rate to a stabilized 30% CAGR over the next decade. Also, bear in mind Palantir has typically beaten its revenue forecasts.With this revenue and share count, we can easily calculate a target share price, all we need is to assign a P/S multiple.In 2021, Palantir has traded at a P/S of around 20 and as high as 30. While I agree that this is on the higher end of the spectrum, it is much more reasonable than assigning a P/S of 5. I would argue the best way to find a reasonable ratio, is to find a comparable company, and I’d say Splunk Inc(NASDAQ:SPLK)is a good start. Splunk, like Palantir, is in the data business, it has similar margins and even a presence in the public sector, making it a close competitor to Palantir.Splunk currently has a P/S of around 7.6, but it has also grown revenues at only 10% in the last year, far below Palantir’s 43% growth rate. With this in mind, I could easily justify Palantir having a P/S of 15. Even if you believe both Palantir and Splunk are due for further multiple contractions I think a P/S of 10 for Palantir is as low as the market will go. With that said, I’ll establish a price range using a P/S of 10-15 and using my forecasts for 2022 and 2025.Therefore, my price target for 2022 based on P/S would be $11.5-$15.2. By 2025, at the same P/S, the shares would be worth between $24.6-$37. Bear in mind this implies a significant multiple contraction compared to what we have seen in 2021.Other considerationsI think $10 is a floor that Palantir won’t break. I’d be happy to scoop up those shares at that price, and even at $15. Palantir is well-positioned for long-term growth, and it could pleasantly surprise investors, especially if it can make more inroads in the private sector. For now, indeed, unprofitable companies like Palantir are not fashionable, due to the idea that the Fed will be raising rates “soon”. This is yet to be seen.As I’ve mentioned before, inflation will struggle to remain high while money velocity is trending lower. Could we have already seen the highest levels of inflation? Without direct fiscal stimulus (literally sending people money) inflation won’t persist, and without inflation low rates, cheap money and high growth will remain good investments.TakeawayCertainly, anything could happen, and it’s important to have a diversified portfolio of companies, but at these prices, Palantir offers limited downside while holding the potential to surprise investors in the next few months and even years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939972067,"gmtCreate":1662047523062,"gmtModify":1676536796016,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dark clouds ahead","listText":"Dark clouds ahead","text":"Dark clouds ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939972067","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026972813,"gmtCreate":1653318593132,"gmtModify":1676535259790,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026972813","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237884509","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653291757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237884509?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How To Invest In A Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237884509","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.</li><li>Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.</li><li>Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an opportunity in retrospect.</li><li>Emotions run high, but fortune favors the patient.</li><li>Let&#39;s review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170860a23786e0a4eea90ff2945b8176\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>pictafolio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p>Being an optimist is a superpower.</p><p>That&#39;s particularly true in times like these.</p><p>After another week in the house of pain, the Nasdaq (QQQ) is down 30% from its previous high. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3413a72f37c75d776401480b027f03e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>If this sell-off is a typical market correction like we&#39;ve seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.</p><p>Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&amp;P 500 bear markets since 1950:</p><blockquote><i>Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-and-a-half years to break even.</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a634d10eb4b4e139377eb46ea1f56f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>S&amp;P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)</span></p><p>So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we&#39;ll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we&#39;ll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.</p><p>It&#39;s important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don&#39;t plan to keep invested for at least five years.</p><p>A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn&#39;t sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it&#39;s temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:</p><blockquote><i>All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.</i></blockquote><p>Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall <i>another</i> 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.</p><p>If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn&#39;t feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:</p><blockquote><i>You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.</i></blockquote><p>The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.</p><p>You&#39;ll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They&#39;ll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:</p><blockquote><i>“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.</i></blockquote><p>Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer&#39;s mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:</p><blockquote><i>A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.</i></blockquote><p>Easier said than done?</p><p>Let&#39;s review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.</p><p><b>1) Zoom out.</b></p><p>Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.</p><p>Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don&#39;t tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.</p><p>The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ab81195eb2e3587a7819d6957fa36be\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)</span></p><p>Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:</p><blockquote><i>[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.</i></blockquote><p>On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn&#39;t be able to predict how the stock market will react.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2ef9e05a6b3ae4e0c025e213670a60\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"735\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Recessions &amp; Expansions (Visual Capitalist)</span></p><p>Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can&#39;t help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.</p><p>As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Market drawdown</b></td><td><b>Historical Frequency</b></td></tr><tr><td>10%</td><td>Every 11 months</td></tr><tr><td>15%</td><td>Every 24 months</td></tr><tr><td>20%</td><td>Every four years</td></tr><tr><td>30%</td><td>Every decade</td></tr><tr><td>40%</td><td>Every few decades</td></tr><tr><td>50%</td><td>2-3 times per century</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Again, the S&amp;P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it&#39;s possible but also unlikely. We just don&#39;t know.</p><p>That&#39;s why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool&#39;s errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for <i>sustainability</i> and <i>survivability</i>.</p><p><b>2) Document your decisions.</b></p><p>In his book <i>The Money Game</i>, Adam Smith explained:</p><blockquote><i>If you don&#39;t know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.</i></blockquote><p>Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That&#39;s true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.</p><p>The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the &#34;cycle of emotions&#34; that comes with the market&#39;s ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I&#39;m in denial).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d884d2790a7a799b1fbbb5aecbbd42\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"794\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)</span></p><p>I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio&#39;s returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.</p><p>Journaling is the closest thing you&#39;ll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.</p><ul><li>Why do you invest?</li><li>What is your time horizon?</li><li>What is your investment philosophy?</li><li>Why are you bullish about this company?</li><li>Is there something that would break your thesis?</li><li>What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?</li></ul><p>Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.</p><p>We are already in a downturn, so you don&#39;t have this luxury anymore. But it&#39;s not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?</p><p>In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process &#34;on hold&#34; because red days take a toll on them.</p><p>Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you&#39;re doing wrong, but also with what you&#39;re doing right.</p><p>Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.</p><p>Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as <i>fear of joining in</i> or <i>missing out</i> (another topic I&#39;ve covered more in-depth here).</p><p>As someone managing an investment marketplace, I&#39;ve seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they &#34;felt&#34; like there wasn&#39;t much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:</p><blockquote><i>The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.</i></blockquote><p>If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to &#34;sleep on it&#34; and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.</p><p>There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don&#39;t have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night&#39;s sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.</p><p><b>3) Automate and stick to your plan.</b></p><p>Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.</p><p>I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:</p><ol><li>I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).</li><li>I don&#39;t add to losers (fighting prospect theory).</li><li>I don&#39;t sell winners (staying the course).</li><li>I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).</li></ol><p>I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.</p><p>These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:</p><ul><li>It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).</li><li>It <i>forces me to invest</i> every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.</li><li>It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, <i>easing my way</i> in the market (spreading investments over time).</li><li>It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.</li></ul><p>I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.</p><p>In his book <i>The Psychology of Money</i>, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being <i>rational</i> vs. <i>reasonable</i>. A <i>rational</i> decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.</p><p>However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is <i>reasonable</i> for you.</p><p>The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That&#39;s why portfolio suitability is so essential.</p><p>Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.</p><p>Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer&#39;s remorse when the market continues to fall.</p><p>I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4a94ee08348304e119c97815f86b055\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).</p><p>It doesn&#39;t matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.</p><p><b>4) Be selective and focus on quality</b></p><p>A bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you&#39;ve wanted to own for a long time but couldn&#39;t because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that&#39;s where your focus should be.</p><p>Again, I wouldn&#39;t bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn&#39;t get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.</p><p>Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn&#39;t be shocking to see a stock fall <i>another</i> 30% right after you buy it. That&#39;s the cost of doing business. If you don&#39;t have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.</p><p>Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.</p><p><b>What is a high-quality business, you ask?</b></p><p>I modernized Philip Fisher&#39;s Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:</p><ol><li>Large addressable market.</li><li>Future growth initiatives.</li><li>Effective research and development.</li><li>Effective sales &amp; marketing.</li><li>Worthwhile profit margins.</li><li>Improving profit margins.</li><li>Strong culture.</li><li>High insider ownership.</li><li>Management team depth.</li><li>Consistent reporting.</li><li>Sustainable competitive advantages.</li><li>Long-term vision.</li><li>Financial fortitude.</li><li>Transparent management.</li><li>Ethical management.</li></ol><p>I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.</p><p>The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d506ce6743c74db3df117a557fac5019\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Our north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.</p><p>It&#39;s essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That&#39;s why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.</p><p>I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a> (SQ), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.</p><p>I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you&#39;ve had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the &#34;flavor of the month.&#34; For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well &#34;now&#34; or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.</p><p>Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.</p><p>The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.</p><p>In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won&#39;t pass this filter. And that&#39;s a good thing.</p><p><b>5) Be patient. This too shall pass.</b></p><p>It&#39;s not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.</p><p>What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that&#39;s what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:</p><blockquote><i>Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.</i></blockquote><p>As Charlie Munger explained:</p><blockquote><i>It&#39;s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can&#39;t stand to wait. If you didn&#39;t get the deferred-gratification gene, you&#39;ve got to work very hard to overcome that.</i></blockquote><p>So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you&#39;ve genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don&#39;t sell until I&#39;ve held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It&#39;s an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.</p><p>Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That&#39;s right, doing nothing at all.</p><p>Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don&#39;t go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.</p><p>You&#39;ll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don&#39;t find it particularly insightful. It&#39;s the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.</p><p>There <i>are</i> periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn&#39;t suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life&#39;s savings at the market top in 2000.</p><p>Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.</p><p><b>Final Word</b></p><p>A bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:</p><ol><li><b>Zoom out</b>. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.</li><li><b>Document your decisions</b>. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.</li><li><b>Automate and stick to your plan</b>. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.</li><li><b>Be selective</b>. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.</li><li><b>Be patient. This too shall pass</b>. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we&#39;ll all come out stronger on the other side.</li></ol><p><b>What about you?</b></p><ul><li>How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?</li><li>Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?</li><li>Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?</li></ul><p>Let me know in the comments!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How To Invest In A Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow To Invest In A Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 15:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237884509","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an opportunity in retrospect.Emotions run high, but fortune favors the patient.Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.pictafolio/E+ via Getty ImagesBeing an optimist is a superpower.That's particularly true in times like these.After another week in the house of pain, the Nasdaq (QQQ) is down 30% from its previous high. Meanwhile, the S&P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.Data by YChartsIf this sell-off is a typical market correction like we've seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&P 500 bear markets since 1950:Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than one-and-a-half years to break even.S&P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we'll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we'll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.It's important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don't plan to keep invested for at least five years.A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn't sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it's temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall another 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn't feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.You'll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They'll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer's mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.Easier said than done?Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.1) Zoom out.Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don't tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn't be able to predict how the stock market will react.Recessions & Expansions (Visual Capitalist)Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can't help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:Market drawdownHistorical Frequency10%Every 11 months15%Every 24 months20%Every four years30%Every decade40%Every few decades50%2-3 times per centuryAgain, the S&P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it's possible but also unlikely. We just don't know.That's why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool's errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for sustainability and survivability.2) Document your decisions.In his book The Money Game, Adam Smith explained:If you don't know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That's true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the \"cycle of emotions\" that comes with the market's ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I'm in denial).Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio's returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.Journaling is the closest thing you'll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.Why do you invest?What is your time horizon?What is your investment philosophy?Why are you bullish about this company?Is there something that would break your thesis?What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.We are already in a downturn, so you don't have this luxury anymore. But it's not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process \"on hold\" because red days take a toll on them.Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you're doing wrong, but also with what you're doing right.Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as fear of joining in or missing out (another topic I've covered more in-depth here).As someone managing an investment marketplace, I've seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they \"felt\" like there wasn't much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to \"sleep on it\" and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don't have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night's sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.3) Automate and stick to your plan.Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).I don't add to losers (fighting prospect theory).I don't sell winners (staying the course).I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).It forces me to invest every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, easing my way in the market (spreading investments over time).It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.In his book The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being rational vs. reasonable. A rational decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is reasonable for you.The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That's why portfolio suitability is so essential.Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer's remorse when the market continues to fall.I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)The S&P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).It doesn't matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.4) Be selective and focus on qualityA bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you've wanted to own for a long time but couldn't because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that's where your focus should be.Again, I wouldn't bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn't get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn't be shocking to see a stock fall another 30% right after you buy it. That's the cost of doing business. If you don't have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.What is a high-quality business, you ask?I modernized Philip Fisher's Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:Large addressable market.Future growth initiatives.Effective research and development.Effective sales & marketing.Worthwhile profit margins.Improving profit margins.Strong culture.High insider ownership.Management team depth.Consistent reporting.Sustainable competitive advantages.Long-term vision.Financial fortitude.Transparent management.Ethical management.I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.Data by YChartsOur north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.It's essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That's why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), Block (SQ), and Datadog (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you've had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the \"flavor of the month.\" For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well \"now\" or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won't pass this filter. And that's a good thing.5) Be patient. This too shall pass.It's not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that's what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.As Charlie Munger explained:It's waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can't stand to wait. If you didn't get the deferred-gratification gene, you've got to work very hard to overcome that.So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you've genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don't sell until I've held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It's an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That's right, doing nothing at all.Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don't go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.You'll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don't find it particularly insightful. It's the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.There are periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn't suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life's savings at the market top in 2000.Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.Final WordA bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:Zoom out. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.Document your decisions. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.Automate and stick to your plan. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.Be selective. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.Be patient. This too shall pass. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we'll all come out stronger on the other side.What about you?How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?Let me know in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021239088,"gmtCreate":1653056750744,"gmtModify":1676535215994,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let the bear growls for a while","listText":"Let the bear growls for a while","text":"Let the bear growls for a while","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021239088","repostId":"2236030095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010218261,"gmtCreate":1648392596697,"gmtModify":1676534333427,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Enlightening.&nbsp;","listText":"Enlightening.&nbsp;","text":"Enlightening.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010218261","repostId":"2221071429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221071429","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648343569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221071429?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 09:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221071429","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are fa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8682b68644fb0e700ccf73bfd598736\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><p>Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years.</p><p><b> Alphabet And Meta Returns Since 2013</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7de1c1120c62c3dad9c49e5d4e5a134\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"112\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In fact, both have crushed even the red hot Nasdaq during <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the hottest tech bull runs in US history, delivering Buffett-like 25% returns that resulted in an 8X return.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad549342543f2ced891f57b6c43bb4fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>While the market is currently in a correction, and growth stocks have been especially hard hit, Meta has been crushed, falling into a 50% bear market.</p><p>I&#39;ve bought both growth legends in this correction, but one is a core growth name in my correction plan, and the other is a non-core holding.</p><p>So let me explain why both Meta and Alphabet are great companies, worth owning, and even buying more of right now.</p><p>However, a careful examination of both of their fundamentals makes it clear that Alphabet is the global king of digital marketing, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.</p><h2>The Challenge Facing Digital Marketers Right Now</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a556ac1fd6482c83da2db4af6d5b7540\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>eMarketer</p><p></p><p>GOOG, FB, and Amazon (AMZN) have a triopoly on US digital marketing, commanding an estimated 65% of the market.</p><p>Both GOOG and FB are losing market share to AMZN because Amazon&#39;s ads are 3X as effective at converting to actual sales.</p><p>That&#39;s because Amazon has spent decades gathering customer sales data and knows what its customers want better than anyone on earth.</p><p>Apple&#39;s (AAPL) recent privacy shift in iOS, makes it much easier to opt out of data tracking, and 62% of iPhone users have indeed opted out.</p><p>This has proven a hammer blow to FB, which management says could cost it $10 billion in 2022 alone.</p><p>GOOG is less at risk since it still has the search data it can use to optimize for targeted ads.</p><p>AMZN is the least at risk since it relies far less on cookie tracking than its rivals.</p><p>This kind of business model disruption is part of FB and GOOG&#39;s risk profile, which brings us to our first point of comparison.</p><h2>Long-Term Risk Management: Winner Alphabet</h2><p>How do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.</p><h2>Material Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk</h2><ul><li>4 Things You Need To Know To Profit From ESG Investing</li><li>What Investors Need To Know About Company Long-Term Risk Management (Video)</li></ul><p>Here is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.</p><ul><li>ESG is NOT &#34;political or personal ethics based investing&#34;</li><li>it&#39;s total long-term risk management analysis</li></ul><blockquote><i><b>ESG is just normal risk by another name.</b></i><i>&#34; Simon MacMahon, head of ESG and corporate governance research, Sustainalytics&#34; - Morningstar</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>ESG factors are taken into consideration, alongside all other credit factors, when we consider they are relevant to and have or may have a material influence on creditworthiness.&#34; - S&amp;P</i></blockquote><p>ESG is a measure of risk, not of ethics, political correctness, or personal opinion.</p><p>S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody&#39;s, DBRS (Canadian rating agency), AMBest (insurance rating agency), R&amp;I Credit Rating (Japanese rating agency), and the Japan Credit Rating Agency <b>have been using ESG models in their credit ratings for decades.</b></p><ul><li><b>every credit rating for the last 30 years has included these risk models, you just weren&#39;t aware of it </b></li><li>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</li><li>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</li></ul><p>Every major financial institution also tracks long-term risk management and considers it essential to sound long-term investing including,</p><ul><li>BlackRock</li><li>MSCI</li><li>JPMorgan</li><li>Wells Fargo</li><li>Bank of America</li><li>Deutsche Bank</li><li>virtually every major financial institution in the world</li></ul><p>We use six rating agencies to get a consensus risk management percentile, comparing how well a company manages its risk relative to its peers.</p><p>For context:</p><ul><li>master list average: 62nd percentile</li><li>dividend kings: 63rd percentile</li><li>dividend aristocrats: 67th percentile</li><li>Ultra SWANs: 71st percentile</li></ul><p>The better a company&#39;s risk management consensus the more likely it will be able to adapt to challenges to its business model, as we&#39;re seeing now with GOOG and FB.</p><h4>Meta Long-Term Risk-Management Consensus</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>26.0%</td><td><p>B Industry Laggard, Negative Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>0.7%</td><td><p>32.4/100 High-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>88.9%</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>18.0%</td><td><p>Very Poor- Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital 19 Metric Model</td><td>50.0%</td><td>Average</td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>30.0%</td><td><p>Below-Average Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar Global Percentile</td><td>30.6%</td><td>Below-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital Global Percentile</td><td>25.4%</td><td>Poor</td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>33.7%</b></td><td><p><b>Below-Average (verging on poor) - medium risk</b></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters&#39;, Just Capital, S&amp;P, FactSet Research)</i></p><p>The rating agency consensus is that FB is below-average at managing its risk, verging on poor.</p><p>Now contrast that with GOOG.</p><h4>Alphabet Long-Term Risk-Management Consensus</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>53.0%</td><td><p>BBB Average, Negative Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>39.7%</td><td><p>24.3/100 Medium-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>85.88%</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>47.0%</td><td><p>Average- Positive Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital 19 Metric Model</td><td>100.00%</td><td><p>#1 Industry Leader</p></td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>30.0%</td><td><p>Below-Average Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar Global Percentile</td><td>60.88</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital Global Percentile</td><td>100%</td><td><p>#1 Industry Leader, #1 Company In America</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>64.6%</b></td><td><b>Above-Average - low risk </b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters&#39;, Just Capital, S&amp;P, FactSet Research)</i></p><p>GOOG doesn&#39;t just manage its long-term risk better than FB, it&#39;s beating FB by 31%.</p><ul><li>far more likely to successfully deal with privacy policy shifts, regulators, and every other major risk to its business model</li></ul><p>And risk-management isn&#39;t the only factor in which GOOG outshines FB by a wide margin.</p><h2>Overall Quality: Winner, Alphabet</h2><p>The Dividend King&#39;s overall quality scores are based on a 241 point model that includes:</p><ul><li><p>dividend safety</p></li><li><p>balance sheet strength</p></li><li><p>credit ratings</p></li><li><p>credit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk data</p></li><li><p>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</p></li><li><p>accounting and corporate fraud risk</p></li><li><p>profitability and business model</p></li><li><p>growth consensus estimates</p></li><li><p>management growth guidance</p></li><li><p>historical earnings growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical cash flow growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical dividend growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical sales growth rates</p></li><li><p>cost of capital</p></li><li><p>long-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&amp;P, Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv, and Just Capital</p></li><li><p>management quality</p></li><li><p>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</p></li><li><p>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</p></li><li><p>analyst consensus long-term return potential</p></li></ul><p>It actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p><ul><li><p>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</p></li><li><p>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</p></li></ul><p>How do we know that our safety and quality model works well?</p><p>During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.</p><p>That&#39;s because we don&#39;t miss anything important about a company&#39;s fundamental safety and quality.</p><p>So how do GOOG and FB stack up on one of the world&#39;s most comprehensive and accurate safety and quality models?</p><h2>Meta: A Speculative 11/19 Quality Blue-Chip</h2><p><b>Meta Balance Sheet Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Medium Risk (34th industry percentile risk-management consensus)</td><td>Effective AAA stable outlook credit rating 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation - speculative, turnaround stock</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (58% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>67%</b></td><td><b>Average Dependability</b></td><td><b>3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>100%</td><td>5/5 very safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 wide moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>67%</td><td>3/5 average dependability</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>84%</b></td><td><b>11/13 Speculative Blue-Chip</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td><p>2/3 Medium Risk</p></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec - speculative, turnaround stock</td><td><p>20% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><p>And here&#39;s GOOG.</p><h2>Alphabet: A 13/13 Quality Ultra SWAN</h2><p><b>Alphabet Balance Sheet Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Low Risk (65th industry percentile risk-management consensus)</td><td>AA+ stable outlook credit rating 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (58% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>89%</b></td><td><b>Exceptional Dependability</b></td><td><b>5</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>100%</td><td>5/5 very safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 wide moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>89%</td><td>5/5 exceptional</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>95%</b></td><td><b>13/13 Ultra SWAN</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>3/3 Low Risk</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec</td><td><p>5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><ul><li>Meta: 114th highest quality company on the Masterlist: 78th percentile</li><li>Alphabet: 39th highest quality: 92nd percentile</li></ul><p>Both companies are exceptionally high quality given that our company database is one of the best in the world.</p><p>The DK 500 Master List includes the world&#39;s highest quality companies including:</p><ul><li><p>All dividend champions</p></li><li><p>All dividend aristocrats</p></li><li><p>All dividend kings</p></li><li><p>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</p></li><li><p>All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</p></li><li>48 of the world&#39;s best growth stocks (on its way to 100)</li></ul><p>But when it comes to overall quality, factoring in over 1,000 fundamental metrics, the winner is clearly once more Alphabet.</p><p>Why is GOOG the hands-down winner in this quality fight with FB?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Quality Rating (out Of 13)</b></td><td><b>Quality Score (Out Of 100)</b></td><td><b>Dividend/Balance Sheet Safety Rating (out of 5)</b></td><td><b>Safety Score (Out Of 100)</b></td><td><b>Dependability Rating (Out Of 5)</b></td><td><b>Dependability Score (out Of 100)</b></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a></td><td>11 Speculative Blue-Chip</td><td>84%</td><td>5 Very Safe</td><td>100%</td><td>3 average</td><td>67%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>13 Ultra SWAN</td><td>95%</td><td>5 Very Safe</td><td>100%</td><td>5 exceptional</td><td>89%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal)</i></p><p>Both FB and Meta have exceptionally strong balance sheets, making the risk of bankruptcy as close to zero as you can find on Wall Street.</p><h4>Alphabet&#39;s Balance Sheet: AA+ Rated By S&amp;P</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13f13c309fa748452dfea0afb27ebdf\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GuruFocus Premium</p><p></p><p>GOOG has $140 billion in cash and just $13 billion in debt.</p><p>Its advanced accounting metrics (F, Z, and M-score) are exceptional.</p><ul><li>F-score is a measure of short-term bankruptcy risk</li><li>4+ is safe, 7+ very safe and GOOG&#39;s is 8</li><li>M-score is 84% to 92% accurate at forecasting long-term bankruptcies</li><li>1.81+ is safe, 3+ is very safe and GOOG&#39;s is 13.04</li><li>M-score is 76% accurate at catching accounting fraud, and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting</li><li>-1.78 or lower is safe and GOOG&#39;s is -2.48</li></ul><h4>Meta&#39;s Balance Sheet: Effectively AAA</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68209d14c736c8328e46572200e82060\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GuruFocus Premium</p><p></p><p>The only &#34;debt&#34; Meta has is receivables, it actually carries no long-term debt.</p><p>That is why it&#39;s the largest company on earth that doesn&#39;t pay the $500K per year for a credit rating.</p><p>However, given its current and historical advanced credit metrics, as well as its exceptionally strong solvency ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratios), I&#39;m highly confident that it would be AAA-rated.</p><ul><li>because it&#39;s literally not possible for FB to default on debt it doesn&#39;t have</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Credit Rating</b></td><td><b>30-Year Bankruptcy Probability</b></td></tr><tr><td>AAA (Meta)</td><td>0.07%</td></tr><tr><td>AA+ (Alphabet)</td><td>0.29%</td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>0.51%</td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>0.55%</td></tr><tr><td>A+</td><td>0.60%</td></tr><tr><td>A</td><td>0.66%</td></tr><tr><td>A-</td><td>2.5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB+</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB</td><td>7.5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB-</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>BB+</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>BB</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>BB-</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>B+</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>B</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>B-</td><td>45%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC+</td><td>52%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC-</td><td>65%</td></tr><tr><td>CC</td><td>70%</td></tr><tr><td>C</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>D</td><td>100%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: S&amp;P, University of St. Petersberg)</i></p><p>This means the fundamental risk of losing all your money over the next 30 years buying FB or GOOG today is approximately</p><ul><li>1 in 1,429 for FB</li><li>1 in 345 for GOOG</li></ul><p>And both companies&#39; balance sheets are expected to keep getting stronger over time.</p><p><b>Alphabet: Consensus $441 Billion In Net Cash By 2027 </b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c3a6843c329c2b16d3839e0e124674\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p><b>Meta: Consensus $71 Billion In Net Cash By 2027</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec44680d5d8318ba8ed74d4b40ae28e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>Now let&#39;s consider profitability, Wall Street&#39;s favorite quality proxy.</p><h2>Profitability: Winner, Meta By A Small Amount</h2><p><b>Meta Profitability Vs Peers</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2b501a3cd5bb6da5299422362bed67\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gurufocus Premium</p><p></p><p><b>Alphabet Profitability Vs Peers</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926a2ab456d218b3ef8cd49552df5565\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gurufocus Premium</p><p></p><p>Both companies are profit-minting machines.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b7f04eadaf433b4fe704dda171180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>These are two of the most profitable companies on earth, and their industry-leading profitability has been stable or improving for over a decade, confirming a wide and stable moat.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a1b491d8a76dd73ddc3b2ea13e999c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>FB&#39;s free cash flow is expected to keep growing and reach $77 billion in 2027.</p><p>This is expected to result in impressive buybacks in the coming years.</p><ul><li>$219 billion in consensus buybacks through 2027</li><li>38% of shares at current valuations</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f9e72220887060384ea19dc975503c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>GOOG&#39;s annual free cash flow is expected to grow to $139 billion in 2027, allowing it to undertake even more impressive buybacks.</p><ul><li>$380 billion in consensus buybacks through 2027</li><li>21% of shares at current valuations</li></ul><p>Now let&#39;s consider one important profitability metric in particular.</p><p>Return on capital or ROC is Joel Greenblatt&#39;s gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.</p><p>ROC = pre-tax profit/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business).</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500&#39;s average in 2021 was 14.6% (average investment pays for itself in 7 years)</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>ROC (Greenblatt)</b></td><td><b>ROC Industry Percentile</b></td><td><b>13-Year Median ROC</b></td><td><b>5-Year ROC Trend (OTC:CAGR)</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>74%</td><td>65%</td><td>95%</td><td>-16%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>87%</td><td>67%</td><td>74%</td><td>-7%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>In the past year, GOOG&#39;s return on capital was higher than FB&#39;s and it&#39;s also above its 13-year median indicating a more stable moat.</p><p>In other words, when it comes to profitability, FB edges out GOOG by a small amount, except in terms of return on capital, where it&#39;s once more the winner.</p><h2>Valuation: Winner, Meta</h2><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Average Fair Value</b></td><td><b>Current Price</b></td><td><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></td><td><b>DK Rating</b></td><td><b>PE 2022</b></td><td><b>PEG 2022</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>$265.75</td><td>$214.35</td><td>19.6%</td><td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td><td>17.19</td><td>1.49</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>$3,161.89</td><td>$2,771.92</td><td>12.3%</td><td>Potentially Good Buy</td><td>23.51</td><td>1.67</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>FB is trading at a slightly lower valuation and a higher margin of safety, though not quite high enough for me to consider it a good buy.</p><ul><li>20% discount is needed to make FB a potentially good buy given its lower quality and risk profile</li></ul><p>If we back out cash we see that FB is once more the more undervalued company.</p><ul><li>FB EV/EBITDA: 9.5</li><li>GOOG EV/EBITDA: 14.5</li></ul><p>However, both companies are trading at highly attractive valuations.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>12-Month Fundamentally Justified Upside Total Return Potential</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>48.47%</td><td>23.98%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>25.77%</td><td>14.11%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>This is why analysts expect both to deliver very strong returns, though FB potentially much more than GOOG.</p><p>Of course, what happens in the next year doesn&#39;t matter as much as the kind of returns both companies can deliver over the long-term.</p><h2>Long-Term Total Return Potential: Winner, Alphabet</h2><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>FactSet Long-Term Consensus Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>0.00%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>0.00%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>GOOG is expected to grow significantly faster than FB over time, resulting in far better long-term returns.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Investment Strategy</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Growth</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></td><td><b>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</b></td><td><p><b>10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Return</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Europe</td><td>2.6%</td><td>12.8%</td><td>15.4%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>8.4</td><td>2.27</td></tr><tr><td>Value</td><td>2.1%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>9.3</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td><b>Alphabet</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>14.1%</b></td><td><b>14.1%</b></td><td><b>9.9%</b></td><td><b>7.7%</b></td><td><b>9.4</b></td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield</td><td>2.8%</td><td>11.3%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>9.4</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield + Growth</td><td>1.7%</td><td>11.0%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>10.8</td><td>1.91</td></tr><tr><td>Safe Midstream + Growth</td><td>3.3%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.80</td></tr><tr><td><b>Meta</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>11.50%</b></td><td><b>11.5%</b></td><td><b>8.1%</b></td><td><b>5.9%</b></td><td><b>12.3</b></td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq (Growth)</td><td>0.8%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>12.3</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Safe Midstream</td><td>5.5%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>12.3</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.2%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>12.9</td><td>1.72</td></tr><tr><td>REITs + Growth</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>10.6%</td><td>7.4%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>13.7</td><td>1.67</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.4%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.0%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>15.1</td><td>1.59</td></tr><tr><td>Realty Income</td><td>4.6%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>9.8%</td><td>6.9%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>15.4</td><td>1.58</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Growth</td><td>1.6%</td><td>8.0%</td><td>9.6%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>15.9</td><td>1.56</td></tr><tr><td>REITs</td><td>2.9%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>9.4%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>16.4</td><td>1.54</td></tr><tr><td>60/40 Retirement Portfolio</td><td>2.1%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>24.9</td><td>1.33</td></tr><tr><td>10-Year US Treasury</td><td>2.3%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>2.3%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>-0.5%</td><td>-131.1</td><td>0.95</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Both companies are expected to beat the S&amp;P 500 over time, though FB merely to match the Nasdaq while GOOG is expected to run circles around big tech.</p><p>What kind of difference does 2.6% per year in potential extra returns actually mean for your life?</p><h4>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>7.7% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&amp;P Consensus</b></td><td><b>11.9% Inflation-Adjusted GOOG Consensus</b></td><td><b>9.3% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted FB Consensus</b></td><td><b>Difference Between Inflation Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus Returns</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>$1,449.03</td><td>$1,756.06</td><td>$1,561.34</td><td>$194.71</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>$2,099.70</td><td>$3,083.73</td><td>$2,437.79</td><td>$645.95</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>$3,042.53</td><td>$5,415.21</td><td>$3,806.22</td><td>$1,608.99</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>$4,408.74</td><td>$9,509.42</td><td>$5,942.82</td><td>$3,566.60</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>$6,388.41</td><td>$16,699.08</td><td>$9,278.77</td><td>$7,420.31</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>$9,257.02</td><td>$29,324.53</td><td>$14,487.34</td><td>$14,837.19</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Both FB and GOOG are likely to generate good returns but GOOG could turn a modest investment today into a potentially small fortune in the coming decades.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>Ratio Inflation-Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>1.12</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>1.26</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>1.42</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>1.60</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>1.80</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>2.02</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>In fact, GOOG could potentially double FB&#39;s 30-year returns if both companies grow as analysts currently expect.</p><h2>Short &amp; Medium-Term Total Return Potential: Tie</h2><p><b>Meta 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f903c32f63dbb4cfa5efa19492b8a0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>FB growing at 11.5% is worth about 20.5X earnings based on the company&#39;s historical PEG ratio.</p><ul><li>analyst 12-month consensus forecast is for 21.9 PE</li></ul><p>This means that if FB grows as expected through 2024 it could deliver about 18% annular returns, far more than the 17% overvalued S&amp;P 500 is likely to generate.</p><p>What about the next five years?</p><h4>S&amp;P 500 2027 Consensus Return Potential</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Upside Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Consensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Probability-Weighted Return (Annualized)</b></td><td><p><b>Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>34.75%</td><td>6.15%</td><td>4.61%</td><td>1.27%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK S&amp;P 500 Valuation And Total Return Tool)</i></p><p>For context, analysts expect 35% returns from the S&amp;P 500, which adjusted for inflation and risk is 1% compared to the market&#39;s historical 6% to 7% real return.</p><h4><b>Meta 2027 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d31fef78452199e2961d8d89d65454\" tg-width=\"275\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>FB could more than double your money if it grows as analysts expect over the next five years.</p><ul><li>3.2X the S&amp;P 500 consensus</li></ul><h2><b>GOOG 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc664bb22e0ba08e06de0e9bbed286c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>GOOG could deliver 13% annual returns through 2024 if it grows as expected.</p><p>In the past GOOG has grown as slowly as 11% and billions of investors still paid 25.7X earnings, meaning that its historical market-fair value multiple of 25 to 26X earnings should still be valid.</p><h4><b>GOOG 2027 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d07a6169cb075678d6646bca01679\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>Thanks to GOOG&#39;s faster growth rate analysts expect both companies to potentially deliver identical returns.</p><ul><li>about 14% annually over the next five years</li><li>also 3.2X better than the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Both Are Great Companies But In The Battle Of Meta And Alphabet There Is One Clear Winner</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dea4bc19b8951f30e1b2bea40e989b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507426f09d401e866c66a1f1dd597e4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p></p><p>Both Alphabet and Meta are wonderful companies, and as close to perfect growth blue-chip opportunities as you can find on Wall Street right now.</p><ul><li>far superior valuation</li><li>superior quality</li><li>superior long-term return potential to the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>However, when we examine both companies in their entirety one fact is clear.</p><ul><li>GOOG is a higher quality company</li><li>GOOG is a faster-growing company (<i>with potentially 2X better long-term return potential than FB</i>)</li><li>GOOG has far better long-term risk management (to deal with the disruption the digital advertising industry is currently facing)</li><li>GOOG has superior return on capital and a more stable moat</li></ul><p>While FB offers superior valuation and potentially double the short-term return potential, it&#39;s a speculative blue-chip currently going through the largest business pivot in the company&#39;s history.</p><p>In contrast, GOOG is a faster-growing Ultra SWAN that is expected to buy back almost $400 billion worth of stock in the next five years, double that of FB.</p><p>Simply put, if you can only buy one of these growth legends today, I recommend Alphabet, and that&#39;s why I have it as a core growth position in my correction plan.</p><p>Not just for the next few weeks, but all of 2022 and beyond.</p><p>Because at the end of the day, when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always, you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, you make your own.</p><blockquote>Luck is what happens when preparation meets, opportunity.&#34; - Roman philosopher Seneca the younger</blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-27 09:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years. Alphabet And Meta Returns Since ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221071429","content_text":"FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years. Alphabet And Meta Returns Since 2013Portfolio Visualizer PremiumIn fact, both have crushed even the red hot Nasdaq during one of the hottest tech bull runs in US history, delivering Buffett-like 25% returns that resulted in an 8X return.YchartsWhile the market is currently in a correction, and growth stocks have been especially hard hit, Meta has been crushed, falling into a 50% bear market.I've bought both growth legends in this correction, but one is a core growth name in my correction plan, and the other is a non-core holding.So let me explain why both Meta and Alphabet are great companies, worth owning, and even buying more of right now.However, a careful examination of both of their fundamentals makes it clear that Alphabet is the global king of digital marketing, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.The Challenge Facing Digital Marketers Right NoweMarketerGOOG, FB, and Amazon (AMZN) have a triopoly on US digital marketing, commanding an estimated 65% of the market.Both GOOG and FB are losing market share to AMZN because Amazon's ads are 3X as effective at converting to actual sales.That's because Amazon has spent decades gathering customer sales data and knows what its customers want better than anyone on earth.Apple's (AAPL) recent privacy shift in iOS, makes it much easier to opt out of data tracking, and 62% of iPhone users have indeed opted out.This has proven a hammer blow to FB, which management says could cost it $10 billion in 2022 alone.GOOG is less at risk since it still has the search data it can use to optimize for targeted ads.AMZN is the least at risk since it relies far less on cookie tracking than its rivals.This kind of business model disruption is part of FB and GOOG's risk profile, which brings us to our first point of comparison.Long-Term Risk Management: Winner AlphabetHow do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.Material Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk4 Things You Need To Know To Profit From ESG InvestingWhat Investors Need To Know About Company Long-Term Risk Management (Video)Here is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.ESG is NOT \"political or personal ethics based investing\"it's total long-term risk management analysisESG is just normal risk by another name.\" Simon MacMahon, head of ESG and corporate governance research, Sustainalytics\" - MorningstarESG factors are taken into consideration, alongside all other credit factors, when we consider they are relevant to and have or may have a material influence on creditworthiness.\" - S&PESG is a measure of risk, not of ethics, political correctness, or personal opinion.S&P, Fitch, Moody's, DBRS (Canadian rating agency), AMBest (insurance rating agency), R&I Credit Rating (Japanese rating agency), and the Japan Credit Rating Agency have been using ESG models in their credit ratings for decades.every credit rating for the last 30 years has included these risk models, you just weren't aware of it credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelEvery major financial institution also tracks long-term risk management and considers it essential to sound long-term investing including,BlackRockMSCIJPMorganWells FargoBank of AmericaDeutsche Bankvirtually every major financial institution in the worldWe use six rating agencies to get a consensus risk management percentile, comparing how well a company manages its risk relative to its peers.For context:master list average: 62nd percentiledividend kings: 63rd percentiledividend aristocrats: 67th percentileUltra SWANs: 71st percentileThe better a company's risk management consensus the more likely it will be able to adapt to challenges to its business model, as we're seeing now with GOOG and FB.Meta Long-Term Risk-Management ConsensusRating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model26.0%B Industry Laggard, Negative TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model0.7%32.4/100 High-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model88.9%GoodS&P 1,000+ Metric Model18.0%Very Poor- Stable TrendJust Capital 19 Metric Model50.0%AverageFactSet30.0%Below-Average Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile30.6%Below-AverageJust Capital Global Percentile25.4%PoorConsensus33.7%Below-Average (verging on poor) - medium risk(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters', Just Capital, S&P, FactSet Research)The rating agency consensus is that FB is below-average at managing its risk, verging on poor.Now contrast that with GOOG.Alphabet Long-Term Risk-Management ConsensusRating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model53.0%BBB Average, Negative TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model39.7%24.3/100 Medium-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model85.88%GoodS&P 1,000+ Metric Model47.0%Average- Positive TrendJust Capital 19 Metric Model100.00%#1 Industry LeaderFactSet30.0%Below-Average Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile60.88Above-AverageJust Capital Global Percentile100%#1 Industry Leader, #1 Company In AmericaConsensus64.6%Above-Average - low risk (Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters', Just Capital, S&P, FactSet Research)GOOG doesn't just manage its long-term risk better than FB, it's beating FB by 31%.far more likely to successfully deal with privacy policy shifts, regulators, and every other major risk to its business modelAnd risk-management isn't the only factor in which GOOG outshines FB by a wide margin.Overall Quality: Winner, AlphabetThe Dividend King's overall quality scores are based on a 241 point model that includes:dividend safetybalance sheet strengthcredit ratingscredit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk datashort and long-term bankruptcy riskaccounting and corporate fraud riskprofitability and business modelgrowth consensus estimatesmanagement growth guidancehistorical earnings growth rateshistorical cash flow growth rateshistorical dividend growth rateshistorical sales growth ratescost of capitallong-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&P, Reuters'/Refinitiv, and Just Capitalmanagement qualitydividend friendly corporate culture/income dependabilitylong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)analyst consensus long-term return potentialIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.That's because we don't miss anything important about a company's fundamental safety and quality.So how do GOOG and FB stack up on one of the world's most comprehensive and accurate safety and quality models?Meta: A Speculative 11/19 Quality Blue-ChipMeta Balance Sheet SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%FB100%NANARisk RatingMedium Risk (34th industry percentile risk-management consensus)Effective AAA stable outlook credit rating 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation - speculative, turnaround stockLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (58% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5FB67%Average Dependability3Overall QualityFBFinal ScoreRatingSafety100%5/5 very safeBusiness Model100%3/3 wide moatDependability67%3/5 average dependabilityTotal84%11/13 Speculative Blue-ChipRisk Rating2/3 Medium Risk2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec - speculative, turnaround stock20% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyAnd here's GOOG.Alphabet: A 13/13 Quality Ultra SWANAlphabet Balance Sheet SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%GOOG100%NANARisk RatingLow Risk (65th industry percentile risk-management consensus)AA+ stable outlook credit rating 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap RecommendationLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (58% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5GOOG89%Exceptional Dependability5Overall QualityGOOGFinal ScoreRatingSafety100%5/5 very safeBusiness Model100%3/3 wide moatDependability89%5/5 exceptionalTotal95%13/13 Ultra SWANRisk Rating3/3 Low Risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyMeta: 114th highest quality company on the Masterlist: 78th percentileAlphabet: 39th highest quality: 92nd percentileBoth companies are exceptionally high quality given that our company database is one of the best in the world.The DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:All dividend championsAll dividend aristocratsAll dividend kingsAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)48 of the world's best growth stocks (on its way to 100)But when it comes to overall quality, factoring in over 1,000 fundamental metrics, the winner is clearly once more Alphabet.Why is GOOG the hands-down winner in this quality fight with FB?CompanyQuality Rating (out Of 13)Quality Score (Out Of 100)Dividend/Balance Sheet Safety Rating (out of 5)Safety Score (Out Of 100)Dependability Rating (Out Of 5)Dependability Score (out Of 100)Meta Platforms11 Speculative Blue-Chip84%5 Very Safe100%3 average67%Alphabet13 Ultra SWAN95%5 Very Safe100%5 exceptional89%(Source: DK Research Terminal)Both FB and Meta have exceptionally strong balance sheets, making the risk of bankruptcy as close to zero as you can find on Wall Street.Alphabet's Balance Sheet: AA+ Rated By S&PGuruFocus PremiumGOOG has $140 billion in cash and just $13 billion in debt.Its advanced accounting metrics (F, Z, and M-score) are exceptional.F-score is a measure of short-term bankruptcy risk4+ is safe, 7+ very safe and GOOG's is 8M-score is 84% to 92% accurate at forecasting long-term bankruptcies1.81+ is safe, 3+ is very safe and GOOG's is 13.04M-score is 76% accurate at catching accounting fraud, and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting-1.78 or lower is safe and GOOG's is -2.48Meta's Balance Sheet: Effectively AAAGuruFocus PremiumThe only \"debt\" Meta has is receivables, it actually carries no long-term debt.That is why it's the largest company on earth that doesn't pay the $500K per year for a credit rating.However, given its current and historical advanced credit metrics, as well as its exceptionally strong solvency ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratios), I'm highly confident that it would be AAA-rated.because it's literally not possible for FB to default on debt it doesn't haveCredit Rating30-Year Bankruptcy ProbabilityAAA (Meta)0.07%AA+ (Alphabet)0.29%AA0.51%AA-0.55%A+0.60%A0.66%A-2.5%BBB+5%BBB7.5%BBB-11%BB+14%BB17%BB-21%B+25%B37%B-45%CCC+52%CCC59%CCC-65%CC70%C80%D100%(Sources: S&P, University of St. Petersberg)This means the fundamental risk of losing all your money over the next 30 years buying FB or GOOG today is approximately1 in 1,429 for FB1 in 345 for GOOGAnd both companies' balance sheets are expected to keep getting stronger over time.Alphabet: Consensus $441 Billion In Net Cash By 2027 FactSet Research TerminalMeta: Consensus $71 Billion In Net Cash By 2027FactSet Research TerminalNow let's consider profitability, Wall Street's favorite quality proxy.Profitability: Winner, Meta By A Small AmountMeta Profitability Vs PeersGurufocus PremiumAlphabet Profitability Vs PeersGurufocus PremiumBoth companies are profit-minting machines.YchartsThese are two of the most profitable companies on earth, and their industry-leading profitability has been stable or improving for over a decade, confirming a wide and stable moat.FactSet Research TerminalFB's free cash flow is expected to keep growing and reach $77 billion in 2027.This is expected to result in impressive buybacks in the coming years.$219 billion in consensus buybacks through 202738% of shares at current valuationsFactSet Research TerminalGOOG's annual free cash flow is expected to grow to $139 billion in 2027, allowing it to undertake even more impressive buybacks.$380 billion in consensus buybacks through 202721% of shares at current valuationsNow let's consider one important profitability metric in particular.Return on capital or ROC is Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.ROC = pre-tax profit/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business).S&P 500's average in 2021 was 14.6% (average investment pays for itself in 7 years)CompanyROC (Greenblatt)ROC Industry Percentile13-Year Median ROC5-Year ROC Trend (OTC:CAGR)Meta Platforms74%65%95%-16%Alphabet87%67%74%-7%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)In the past year, GOOG's return on capital was higher than FB's and it's also above its 13-year median indicating a more stable moat.In other words, when it comes to profitability, FB edges out GOOG by a small amount, except in terms of return on capital, where it's once more the winner.Valuation: Winner, MetaCompanyAverage Fair ValueCurrent PriceDiscount To Fair ValueDK RatingPE 2022PEG 2022Meta Platforms$265.75$214.3519.6%Potentially Reasonable Buy17.191.49Alphabet$3,161.89$2,771.9212.3%Potentially Good Buy23.511.67(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)FB is trading at a slightly lower valuation and a higher margin of safety, though not quite high enough for me to consider it a good buy.20% discount is needed to make FB a potentially good buy given its lower quality and risk profileIf we back out cash we see that FB is once more the more undervalued company.FB EV/EBITDA: 9.5GOOG EV/EBITDA: 14.5However, both companies are trading at highly attractive valuations.Company12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential12-Month Fundamentally Justified Upside Total Return PotentialMeta Platforms48.47%23.98%Alphabet25.77%14.11%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)This is why analysts expect both to deliver very strong returns, though FB potentially much more than GOOG.Of course, what happens in the next year doesn't matter as much as the kind of returns both companies can deliver over the long-term.Long-Term Total Return Potential: Winner, AlphabetCompanyYieldFactSet Long-Term Consensus Growth RateLT Consensus Total Return PotentialRisk-Adjusted Expected ReturnMeta Platforms0.00%11.5%11.5%8.1%Alphabet0.00%14.1%14.1%9.9%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)GOOG is expected to grow significantly faster than FB over time, resulting in far better long-term returns.Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted ReturnEurope2.6%12.8%15.4%10.7%8.6%8.42.27Value2.1%12.1%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.32.10Alphabet0.0%14.1%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.42.10High-Yield2.8%11.3%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.42.10High-Yield + Growth1.7%11.0%12.7%8.9%6.7%10.81.91Safe Midstream + Growth3.3%8.5%11.8%8.3%6.1%11.81.80Meta0.0%11.50%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Nasdaq (Growth)0.8%10.7%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Safe Midstream5.5%6.0%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Dividend Aristocrats2.2%8.9%11.1%7.8%5.6%12.91.72REITs + Growth1.8%8.9%10.6%7.4%5.2%13.71.67S&P 5001.4%8.5%9.9%7.0%4.8%15.11.59Realty Income4.6%5.2%9.8%6.9%4.7%15.41.58Dividend Growth1.6%8.0%9.6%6.7%4.5%15.91.56REITs2.9%6.5%9.4%6.6%4.4%16.41.5460/40 Retirement Portfolio2.1%5.1%7.2%5.1%2.9%24.91.3310-Year US Treasury2.3%0.0%2.3%1.6%-0.5%-131.10.95(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)Both companies are expected to beat the S&P 500 over time, though FB merely to match the Nasdaq while GOOG is expected to run circles around big tech.What kind of difference does 2.6% per year in potential extra returns actually mean for your life?Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial InvestmentTime Frame (Years)7.7% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P Consensus11.9% Inflation-Adjusted GOOG Consensus9.3% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted FB ConsensusDifference Between Inflation Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus Returns5$1,449.03$1,756.06$1,561.34$194.7110$2,099.70$3,083.73$2,437.79$645.9515$3,042.53$5,415.21$3,806.22$1,608.9920$4,408.74$9,509.42$5,942.82$3,566.6025$6,388.41$16,699.08$9,278.77$7,420.3130$9,257.02$29,324.53$14,487.34$14,837.19(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)Both FB and GOOG are likely to generate good returns but GOOG could turn a modest investment today into a potentially small fortune in the coming decades.Time Frame (Years)Ratio Inflation-Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus51.12101.26151.42201.60251.80302.02(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)In fact, GOOG could potentially double FB's 30-year returns if both companies grow as analysts currently expect.Short & Medium-Term Total Return Potential: TieMeta 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchFB growing at 11.5% is worth about 20.5X earnings based on the company's historical PEG ratio.analyst 12-month consensus forecast is for 21.9 PEThis means that if FB grows as expected through 2024 it could deliver about 18% annular returns, far more than the 17% overvalued S&P 500 is likely to generate.What about the next five years?S&P 500 2027 Consensus Return PotentialYearUpside Potential By End of That YearConsensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That YearProbability-Weighted Return (Annualized)Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns202734.75%6.15%4.61%1.27%(Source: DK S&P 500 Valuation And Total Return Tool)For context, analysts expect 35% returns from the S&P 500, which adjusted for inflation and risk is 1% compared to the market's historical 6% to 7% real return.Meta 2027 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchFB could more than double your money if it grows as analysts expect over the next five years.3.2X the S&P 500 consensusGOOG 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchGOOG could deliver 13% annual returns through 2024 if it grows as expected.In the past GOOG has grown as slowly as 11% and billions of investors still paid 25.7X earnings, meaning that its historical market-fair value multiple of 25 to 26X earnings should still be valid.GOOG 2027 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchThanks to GOOG's faster growth rate analysts expect both companies to potentially deliver identical returns.about 14% annually over the next five yearsalso 3.2X better than the S&P 500Bottom Line: Both Are Great Companies But In The Battle Of Meta And Alphabet There Is One Clear WinnerDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolBoth Alphabet and Meta are wonderful companies, and as close to perfect growth blue-chip opportunities as you can find on Wall Street right now.far superior valuationsuperior qualitysuperior long-term return potential to the S&P 500However, when we examine both companies in their entirety one fact is clear.GOOG is a higher quality companyGOOG is a faster-growing company (with potentially 2X better long-term return potential than FB)GOOG has far better long-term risk management (to deal with the disruption the digital advertising industry is currently facing)GOOG has superior return on capital and a more stable moatWhile FB offers superior valuation and potentially double the short-term return potential, it's a speculative blue-chip currently going through the largest business pivot in the company's history.In contrast, GOOG is a faster-growing Ultra SWAN that is expected to buy back almost $400 billion worth of stock in the next five years, double that of FB.Simply put, if you can only buy one of these growth legends today, I recommend Alphabet, and that's why I have it as a core growth position in my correction plan.Not just for the next few weeks, but all of 2022 and beyond.Because at the end of the day, when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always, you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, you make your own.Luck is what happens when preparation meets, opportunity.\" - Roman philosopher Seneca the younger","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010094470,"gmtCreate":1648198934394,"gmtModify":1676534316357,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reassuring&nbsp;","listText":"Reassuring&nbsp;","text":"Reassuring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010094470","repostId":"2222007132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222007132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648188758,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222007132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-25 14:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Stock: Mixed Earnings, Good Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222007132","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryNIO just released its fourth quarter earnings which beat on revenue but missed on adjusted EP","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NIO just released its fourth quarter earnings which beat on revenue but missed on adjusted EPS.</li><li>I&#39;m not the biggest fan of EV stocks, but I&#39;d consider NIO a relatively good value in the space.</li><li>Its revenue growth is in the triple digits and its deliveries are approaching 100,000 cars per year.</li><li>The stock is relatively cheap, at least by EV standards.</li><li>In this article I make the case that NIO is a hold, as it has a mix of good and bad qualities.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51026759fca43e36f173766ad3463870\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>NIO Inc</b> (NYSE:NIO) is a true rarity among EV companies. With positive free cash flow and a single-digit price to sales ratio, it’s the closest thing to a value play you’ll find among EVs. That’s not to say that it IS a value play. Trading at 93 times operating cash flow, it certainly isn’t super cheap–nor is it GAAP profitable just yet. But it is inching ever closer to profitability. In a space where there are few true value plays, stocks like NIO are as close as you can get. So, NIO may be an attractive play for investors who are a little too fundamentals-oriented for the average EV stock.</p><p>Shortly before this article published, NIO released its fourth quarter earnings, which beat on revenue but missed on EPS. Both the revenue beat and earnings miss were pretty small: revenue of $1.55 billion was ahead by $20 million; EPS of $-0.16 was off by two cents. Markets took the earnings poorly, as NIO stock sank after hours.</p><p>But the fact still remains: NIO is one of the few EV companies out there that’s really delivering. Its quarterly vehicle deliveries approach 100,000 on an annualized basis, and it’s already doing over $1.5 billion in quarterly revenue. And the deliveries are increasing each and every single quarter. In the third quarter, NIO delivered 24,439 vehicles, up 100% year-over-year. In January alone, it delivered 9,652 vehicles, up 33% year-over-year. In both of these periods, growth in deliveries was strong. The January figure is particularly important as it indicates NIO will surpass 100,000 deliveries for the full year–a key milestone.</p><p>In 2021, <b>Tesla</b> (TSLA) delivered just under 1 million vehicles. In the same period, <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY) delivered 369,000. These are the kinds of numbers the top players in EVs are putting out. With NIO delivering about 100,000 and growing its deliveries at anywhere from 33% to 100% depending on what period you’re looking at, it could reach this level in just a few years.</p><p>So, NIO is a fast-growing company. In this respect, it’s not different from other EV names. The EV industry is growing at about 24% CAGR, so naturally, a lot of companies in the space have strong growth. What does make NIO a little different is its modest valuation. At today’s prices, NIO trades at just 6.5 times sales and 8 times book value. If you dispute my characterization of those multiples as being “low,” remember that this is an EV company we’re talking about. Even the relatively mature companies in this space usually trade at over 10 times sales. Throw NIO’s 178% three-year CAGR revenue growth on top of its modest multiples, and we may have a true GARP play on our hands here.</p><p>With all that said, I have not invested any money in this stock personally. I think it has a lot of potential, but it isn’t quite at the level of maturity where a complete valuation analysis can be done on it. According to the company’s cash flow statements, it only achieved positive free cash flow (“FCF”) in 2020. So we don’t have a long history of cash flows or earnings to work with here. The revenue trend certainly suggests that the future is bright, but it’s tough to gauge precisely how much the stock is worth. For this reason, I rate the stock a “hold,” as it looks promising but is subject to some uncertainty.</p><p><b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p>For a company like NIO, the competitive landscape is of crucial importance. EVs are extremely “buzzy” products, and for this reason, the industry is seeing a lot of new entrants. Not only are there countless EV startups out there, but the established auto makers are getting in on the action too. <b>GM</b> (GM) and <b>Ford</b> (F) are rolling out their own EV offerings to compete with the all-electric players. So, this industry has a lot of competition.</p><p>In the EV space, NIO’s biggest competitors include:</p><ul><li><p>Tesla (TSLA)</p></li><li><p>Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY)</p></li><li><p><b>BYD</b> (OTCPK:BYDDF)</p></li><li><p><b>Rivian</b> (RIVN)</p></li><li><p><b>Lucid</b> (LCID)</p></li></ul><p>NIO’s competition with Tesla and Volkswagen is already material. Both of those companies are already selling EVs in China, where NIO makes the vast majority of its sales. The competition with RIVN and LCID is more of a distant possibility. Rivian is still in its infancy, having delivered only 920 cars at the end of 2021, while Lucid is only selling to the U.S. market. LCID is backed by Chinese investors and is planning a Chinese factory, so it may enter the Chinese market eventually.</p><p>So, the “big three” that NIO competes with are Tesla, VW and BYD.</p><p>NIO is presently in third place in deliveries behind Tesla and VW. In 2021, Tesla delivered 936,000 vehicles, VW delivered 369,000. In the same period, NIO delivered 91,429. Its deliveries grew by 109% year-over-year. The growth rates for Tesla and VW were 97% and 100%, respectively. So NIO was last on volume but first on deliveries growth. That makes perfect sense. In economics, the law of diminishing marginal returns states that businesses reach a point where an extra dollar spent results in a smaller incremental gain in production. Tesla and VM, being larger than NIO, are more likely to be at diminishing returns than NIO is.</p><p>BYD also merits a brief mention. It manufactures a wide variety of electric vehicles, from buses and trucks to cars. This makes it less of a “head to head” competitor with NIO compared to Tesla, but it’s still worth mentioning. BYD mainly sells cars in China, so the car portion of its business undoubtedly competes head to head with NIO. If we include BYD’s PHEVs, it sold far more vehicles than NIO in 2021: 593,745 of them, to be specific. If we narrow it down to just BEVs, then BYD enjoys a smaller lead, with 320,000 sold in 2021. BYD also bests NIO on delivery growth, having upped its deliveries 231% year-over-year.</p><p><b>Product Development</b></p><p>As we’ve seen so far, NIO enjoys a solid place in its industry. It beats Tesla and VW on growth, but is behind BYD on both size and growth. It is well ahead of companies like Rivian and Lucid that are only just beginning to deliver vehicles. So, it is a middle-of-the-pack competitor.</p><p>Will it improve its market share in the future?</p><p>To answer that question, we need to look at NIO’s products. As mentioned previously, the EV industry is a competitive place, one where new entrants are always nipping at the incumbents’ heels. In such an industry, the quality of a company’s offerings is very important, as this determines its ability to win over customers who have other options.</p><p>Here’s what NIO’s lineup looks like today:</p><ul><li><p><b>The ET5 and ET7.</b> The flagship sedans. The ET5 is cheaper, but some say it travels further on one charge, due to its smaller size. NIO advertises a 1,000 kilometer range for both of these models but reviewers have noted that the ET5 seems to go further in real world use.</p></li><li><p><b>The EC6 and ES8.</b> These are both SUVs. The ES8 is a luxury SUV with a high price tag, the EC6 is a smaller and more affordable coupe SUV. The EC6 has the biggest range of NIO’s SUVs, at 615 kilometers.</p></li><li><p><b>The ES6.</b> A mid-size SUV with a range between that of the EC6 and ES8.</p></li></ul><p>The general theme here is that NIO’s smaller models have a bigger range while its larger and more luxurious ones have smaller ranges. This is different from Tesla, whose most expensive car (the Roadster) also has the best range. It seems that NIO is going for space and luxurious interiors on its higher end models, and range on its lower end ones. This positioning perhaps makes sense, as luxury car buyers are going for comfort more than performance. However, the big range edge that the sedans have over the SUVs would appear to make the latter less appealing to anyone wanting to travel long distances.</p><p><b>Recent Financials</b></p><p>As we’ve seen, NIO is an extremely fast-growing company with solid positioning in the luxury end of the Chinese EV market. It has all the ingredients for success. Is that translating to solid financials? To answer that question, we need to look at the most recent quarter’s earnings.</p><p>In Q4, NIO delivered:</p><ul><li><p>$1.55 billion in revenue, up 49% (beat by $20 million).</p></li><li><p>$266.7 billion in gross profit, up 28.8%.</p></li><li><p>A $383 million operating loss, up 162.5% from the same quarter a year before (in this case “up” means worse, as we’re talking about growth in losses).</p></li><li><p>$-0.16 in adjusted EPS, missed by $0.02.</p></li><li><p>25,034 vehicles shipped.</p></li></ul><p>Overall, it was a solid quarter in terms of revenue, but a disappointing one in terms of earnings. The earnings remained negative and the losses widened. The widening losses were attributed to the loss of regulatory credits and share-based compensation. Investors might want to see this company’s share-based compensation come down, as it helped drive bigger losses. On the other hand, when we look at the long term trend in losses, they seem to be getting smaller, so perhaps this quarter was a rare exception.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>As we’ve seen so far, NIO is a high-growth company with a solid competitive position. It is still losing money, and its EPS loss widened in the most recent quarter–though is shrinking on a full year basis. Because NIO’s net losses make up a small percentage of revenue, it looks like it could become profitable soon. Given all these mixed signals, NIO is a clear hold in my books. I’d neither buy nor short it, but I respect the longs’ thesis. Nevertheless, there are risks and challenges for both holders and shorts to be aware of.</p><p>Those long NIO stock primarily need to keep an eye on competition. Tesla is moving cars in China, the home-grown BYD is quite popular there already, European companies are moving in. It’s a competitive space, much like traditional automotives. So, NIO investors will want to look at how the company is differentiating itself from competitors. The ‘luxury’ thing certainly differentiates it from BYD, but Tesla is a different story.</p><p>Those short NIO should keep in mind the long term trends. The company’s revenue growth is still extremely strong. Its losses grew in the most recent quarter, but losses as a percentage of revenue are trending downward long term. It definitely looks like this company is approaching profitability. If it does swing profitable then the stock might enjoy a boost.</p><p>I’m not playing NIO one way or the other, but I’d prefer to go long than to short it, if I had to choose. The stock is relatively cheap and could swing profitable as soon as this year. Given its small market cap, it could move dramatically on such news. But we don’t know when such news will be forthcoming. So for me, this is a “wait and see” stock. I’d want to see at least a few quarters of positive earnings before buying it. But for those with higher risk tolerance than me, the post-earnings dip may be a great buying opportunity.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock: Mixed Earnings, Good Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock: Mixed Earnings, Good Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-25 14:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497715-nio-stock-q4-2021-earnings-mixed-good-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO just released its fourth quarter earnings which beat on revenue but missed on adjusted EPS.I'm not the biggest fan of EV stocks, but I'd consider NIO a relatively good value in the space....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497715-nio-stock-q4-2021-earnings-mixed-good-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497715-nio-stock-q4-2021-earnings-mixed-good-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2222007132","content_text":"SummaryNIO just released its fourth quarter earnings which beat on revenue but missed on adjusted EPS.I'm not the biggest fan of EV stocks, but I'd consider NIO a relatively good value in the space.Its revenue growth is in the triple digits and its deliveries are approaching 100,000 cars per year.The stock is relatively cheap, at least by EV standards.In this article I make the case that NIO is a hold, as it has a mix of good and bad qualities.SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty ImagesNIO Inc (NYSE:NIO) is a true rarity among EV companies. With positive free cash flow and a single-digit price to sales ratio, it’s the closest thing to a value play you’ll find among EVs. That’s not to say that it IS a value play. Trading at 93 times operating cash flow, it certainly isn’t super cheap–nor is it GAAP profitable just yet. But it is inching ever closer to profitability. In a space where there are few true value plays, stocks like NIO are as close as you can get. So, NIO may be an attractive play for investors who are a little too fundamentals-oriented for the average EV stock.Shortly before this article published, NIO released its fourth quarter earnings, which beat on revenue but missed on EPS. Both the revenue beat and earnings miss were pretty small: revenue of $1.55 billion was ahead by $20 million; EPS of $-0.16 was off by two cents. Markets took the earnings poorly, as NIO stock sank after hours.But the fact still remains: NIO is one of the few EV companies out there that’s really delivering. Its quarterly vehicle deliveries approach 100,000 on an annualized basis, and it’s already doing over $1.5 billion in quarterly revenue. And the deliveries are increasing each and every single quarter. In the third quarter, NIO delivered 24,439 vehicles, up 100% year-over-year. In January alone, it delivered 9,652 vehicles, up 33% year-over-year. In both of these periods, growth in deliveries was strong. The January figure is particularly important as it indicates NIO will surpass 100,000 deliveries for the full year–a key milestone.In 2021, Tesla (TSLA) delivered just under 1 million vehicles. In the same period, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) delivered 369,000. These are the kinds of numbers the top players in EVs are putting out. With NIO delivering about 100,000 and growing its deliveries at anywhere from 33% to 100% depending on what period you’re looking at, it could reach this level in just a few years.So, NIO is a fast-growing company. In this respect, it’s not different from other EV names. The EV industry is growing at about 24% CAGR, so naturally, a lot of companies in the space have strong growth. What does make NIO a little different is its modest valuation. At today’s prices, NIO trades at just 6.5 times sales and 8 times book value. If you dispute my characterization of those multiples as being “low,” remember that this is an EV company we’re talking about. Even the relatively mature companies in this space usually trade at over 10 times sales. Throw NIO’s 178% three-year CAGR revenue growth on top of its modest multiples, and we may have a true GARP play on our hands here.With all that said, I have not invested any money in this stock personally. I think it has a lot of potential, but it isn’t quite at the level of maturity where a complete valuation analysis can be done on it. According to the company’s cash flow statements, it only achieved positive free cash flow (“FCF”) in 2020. So we don’t have a long history of cash flows or earnings to work with here. The revenue trend certainly suggests that the future is bright, but it’s tough to gauge precisely how much the stock is worth. For this reason, I rate the stock a “hold,” as it looks promising but is subject to some uncertainty.Competitive LandscapeFor a company like NIO, the competitive landscape is of crucial importance. EVs are extremely “buzzy” products, and for this reason, the industry is seeing a lot of new entrants. Not only are there countless EV startups out there, but the established auto makers are getting in on the action too. GM (GM) and Ford (F) are rolling out their own EV offerings to compete with the all-electric players. So, this industry has a lot of competition.In the EV space, NIO’s biggest competitors include:Tesla (TSLA)Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY)BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF)Rivian (RIVN)Lucid (LCID)NIO’s competition with Tesla and Volkswagen is already material. Both of those companies are already selling EVs in China, where NIO makes the vast majority of its sales. The competition with RIVN and LCID is more of a distant possibility. Rivian is still in its infancy, having delivered only 920 cars at the end of 2021, while Lucid is only selling to the U.S. market. LCID is backed by Chinese investors and is planning a Chinese factory, so it may enter the Chinese market eventually.So, the “big three” that NIO competes with are Tesla, VW and BYD.NIO is presently in third place in deliveries behind Tesla and VW. In 2021, Tesla delivered 936,000 vehicles, VW delivered 369,000. In the same period, NIO delivered 91,429. Its deliveries grew by 109% year-over-year. The growth rates for Tesla and VW were 97% and 100%, respectively. So NIO was last on volume but first on deliveries growth. That makes perfect sense. In economics, the law of diminishing marginal returns states that businesses reach a point where an extra dollar spent results in a smaller incremental gain in production. Tesla and VM, being larger than NIO, are more likely to be at diminishing returns than NIO is.BYD also merits a brief mention. It manufactures a wide variety of electric vehicles, from buses and trucks to cars. This makes it less of a “head to head” competitor with NIO compared to Tesla, but it’s still worth mentioning. BYD mainly sells cars in China, so the car portion of its business undoubtedly competes head to head with NIO. If we include BYD’s PHEVs, it sold far more vehicles than NIO in 2021: 593,745 of them, to be specific. If we narrow it down to just BEVs, then BYD enjoys a smaller lead, with 320,000 sold in 2021. BYD also bests NIO on delivery growth, having upped its deliveries 231% year-over-year.Product DevelopmentAs we’ve seen so far, NIO enjoys a solid place in its industry. It beats Tesla and VW on growth, but is behind BYD on both size and growth. It is well ahead of companies like Rivian and Lucid that are only just beginning to deliver vehicles. So, it is a middle-of-the-pack competitor.Will it improve its market share in the future?To answer that question, we need to look at NIO’s products. As mentioned previously, the EV industry is a competitive place, one where new entrants are always nipping at the incumbents’ heels. In such an industry, the quality of a company’s offerings is very important, as this determines its ability to win over customers who have other options.Here’s what NIO’s lineup looks like today:The ET5 and ET7. The flagship sedans. The ET5 is cheaper, but some say it travels further on one charge, due to its smaller size. NIO advertises a 1,000 kilometer range for both of these models but reviewers have noted that the ET5 seems to go further in real world use.The EC6 and ES8. These are both SUVs. The ES8 is a luxury SUV with a high price tag, the EC6 is a smaller and more affordable coupe SUV. The EC6 has the biggest range of NIO’s SUVs, at 615 kilometers.The ES6. A mid-size SUV with a range between that of the EC6 and ES8.The general theme here is that NIO’s smaller models have a bigger range while its larger and more luxurious ones have smaller ranges. This is different from Tesla, whose most expensive car (the Roadster) also has the best range. It seems that NIO is going for space and luxurious interiors on its higher end models, and range on its lower end ones. This positioning perhaps makes sense, as luxury car buyers are going for comfort more than performance. However, the big range edge that the sedans have over the SUVs would appear to make the latter less appealing to anyone wanting to travel long distances.Recent FinancialsAs we’ve seen, NIO is an extremely fast-growing company with solid positioning in the luxury end of the Chinese EV market. It has all the ingredients for success. Is that translating to solid financials? To answer that question, we need to look at the most recent quarter’s earnings.In Q4, NIO delivered:$1.55 billion in revenue, up 49% (beat by $20 million).$266.7 billion in gross profit, up 28.8%.A $383 million operating loss, up 162.5% from the same quarter a year before (in this case “up” means worse, as we’re talking about growth in losses).$-0.16 in adjusted EPS, missed by $0.02.25,034 vehicles shipped.Overall, it was a solid quarter in terms of revenue, but a disappointing one in terms of earnings. The earnings remained negative and the losses widened. The widening losses were attributed to the loss of regulatory credits and share-based compensation. Investors might want to see this company’s share-based compensation come down, as it helped drive bigger losses. On the other hand, when we look at the long term trend in losses, they seem to be getting smaller, so perhaps this quarter was a rare exception.Risks and ChallengesAs we’ve seen so far, NIO is a high-growth company with a solid competitive position. It is still losing money, and its EPS loss widened in the most recent quarter–though is shrinking on a full year basis. Because NIO’s net losses make up a small percentage of revenue, it looks like it could become profitable soon. Given all these mixed signals, NIO is a clear hold in my books. I’d neither buy nor short it, but I respect the longs’ thesis. Nevertheless, there are risks and challenges for both holders and shorts to be aware of.Those long NIO stock primarily need to keep an eye on competition. Tesla is moving cars in China, the home-grown BYD is quite popular there already, European companies are moving in. It’s a competitive space, much like traditional automotives. So, NIO investors will want to look at how the company is differentiating itself from competitors. The ‘luxury’ thing certainly differentiates it from BYD, but Tesla is a different story.Those short NIO should keep in mind the long term trends. The company’s revenue growth is still extremely strong. Its losses grew in the most recent quarter, but losses as a percentage of revenue are trending downward long term. It definitely looks like this company is approaching profitability. If it does swing profitable then the stock might enjoy a boost.I’m not playing NIO one way or the other, but I’d prefer to go long than to short it, if I had to choose. The stock is relatively cheap and could swing profitable as soon as this year. Given its small market cap, it could move dramatically on such news. But we don’t know when such news will be forthcoming. So for me, this is a “wait and see” stock. I’d want to see at least a few quarters of positive earnings before buying it. But for those with higher risk tolerance than me, the post-earnings dip may be a great buying opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032551697,"gmtCreate":1647406335685,"gmtModify":1676534226102,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth some thoughts","listText":"Worth some thoughts","text":"Worth some thoughts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032551697","repostId":"2219220927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219220927","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647399932,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219220927?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-16 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219220927","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28319f61011d69850e7ae4256381ed8f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty Images</p><h2><b>The Crash</b></h2><p>I was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t sure what he meant, he added the stock market crash, what did I think? The question took the notion that the market is going to crash as received wisdom. He was asking what I thought the ramifications would be. I said that I didn’t think there would be a crash. That was met with a bit of awkward silence. Other conversations this weekend with friends and acquaintances yielded a certainty that inflation will be intractable and will be a persistent feature of the economic landscape for years to come. I don’t agree, I may have underestimated how long inflation news would persist, but I believe that inflation will begin to recede in mid-May, certainly, none of these conditions portends a crash.</p><p>Crashes happen when no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is expecting them. That everyone is talking about millionaires who were first in into whatever fad everyone is convinced will never go down. The most recent that comes to mind is the teenage crypto millionaires. I am not claiming that crypto is about to crash, just using it as an example. When no one believes the stock markets (or real estate and yes Bitcoin) can EVER crash that is when it really hits hard. This may sound familiar to the older folk who’ve lived through the housing bubble, or dot com bubble. If not let me familiarize you with the phenomenon. Everyone and his brother is in the market including your cab driver. Pretty soon everyone is buying in and sure they will be millionaires. It’s at that point that the market has run out of buyers, that&#39;s when a &#34;crash&#34; happens. The catalyst doesn’t matter right now, It’s like setting up dominoes standing up in a long row, even the tiniest touch on the first one can create a huge chain reaction. If everyone is already “All In” and maybe even leveraged the only thing to do is sell. That is how a crash happens.</p><h2><b>Here it is the complete opposite, everyone is pushing the notion of a crash</b></h2><p>Everyone is talking about a bear market, the economy is going into a recession, why? Take your pick. The market is running out of steam. No! The economy is overheating and Powell is behind the curve on inflation! He must raise interest rates 200-300 basis points, and then he’ll cause a recession by overtightening. Have you noticed that these two opposing notions are punted in the same conversation? Let’s get this straight, a recession means the economy has slowed so much that it is falling. Officially, economists count an economy in recession if there are 2 quarters with negative growth. While inflation is usually a result of the market growing TOO FAST. So naturally the purveyors of hot air resort to using stagflation, which encompasses both zero growth AND inflation. This conflation is gaining a lot of currency as those who promote the notion that stagflation happens all the time. In fact, it is exceedingly rare, rarer than a blue moon. The only time stagflation has ever happened in modern history was when the term was coined, during the Carter administration. Will rising interest rates create more chips? More homes? More cars? No, raising interest rates will slow the demand for those items. I am not against raising interest rates, but even as interest rates are rising that the economy will continue to grow, and supply will return lowering prices. I believe that Powell will not overreact, I still see no evidence to believe otherwise, no matter how many times pundits bring it up.</p><p>Let me try and tie all of this together, 2022 is not the 1970s, Stagflation is a rare thing to the special circumstances of the 1970s. A wage-price hike spiral is very unlikely to happen. Surprisingly or perhaps not, worker wages are the biggest expense and the largest influence on inflation. Remember I said that the 70s had hardly any productivity? That is not at all true today.</p><h2><b>Market sentiment gets super negative when participants’ imaginations are unbound</b></h2><p>A big rule about market behavior is how it hates the unknown. The market will embrace every negative notion and worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario that is remotely viable in this case is stagflation so that is where the chatter is. For every piece of news, people are inventing new ways to hate the market and convince the person next to them to dump stocks. In a market like this with most people being sellers, it wouldn&#39;t take anything at all positive to create a buying stampede. In this kind of setup</p><h2><b>Let’s be real the last few months have not been all that fun</b></h2><p>Historically 15% down on the S&amp;P is not unusual, even the 20% correction on the Nasdaq is not unusual. You can have episodes like this and not only regain ATH but exceed the all-time high in no time. On the other hand, long-running bear markets start this way. Lucky for us, you can’t have a sustained bear market without a recession, and we aren’t having that. At some point, the market will adjust valuation, create a base and begin to rise again. The market rises about 80% of the time, so without a degrading economy, you may have a momentary fall to the 20% level but are likely to bounce back. That is kind of where we are now, valuations have been adjusted downward, for a laundry list of reasons, Covid, inflation, Putin’s war, Interest hikes that could hit the economy. I admit we have had quite a run of negativity. I also admit that the indexes have not found a support level. However we are getting very close, the forward PE is about 18 times on the S&amp;P, which should be the right valuation even at +2.5% on the 10-year.</p><h2><b>Prediction time</b></h2><p>I am not saying we will take off like a rocket, we had instead very rocky trading last week. I do believe that leading to the Fed announcement we could have some weakness and then a decent pop on the news conference, as I expect Powell to find his dovish voice again. I guess this is another prediction. The reason why I am saying Powell will sound conciliatory is the likelihood of a default of sovereign debt by Russia. This might have a bigger effect on European banks than domestic, the Fed may fear that it might disrupt the liquidity of the US bond market. Our banks have been through all kinds of simulations for years and are not allowed to leverage up anywhere near where banks were in 2007 when we had the housing bubble. This may yet be another reason for the market to sell off when the default is announced perhaps in a week or 2. I think this will be a very good opportunity to confirm that we have finally found that base. Before then I think we get a decent pop from Powell’s performance</p><h2><b>We haven’t achieved a base as yet but definitely have a trading range</b></h2><p>We first touched back to 4200 on the S&amp;P in January, we’ve trading around this level to now. We have been chopping around this level and higher. We are not yet in a downtrend on the S&amp;P. Let’s take a look at the chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ec679d2f3edba677a4e17a7b1e8fd9\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>seekingalpha.com</p><p>Well, nothing is screaming at me, but this 4200ish level could be a base. If my prediction is correct, looking at this chart I could see S&amp;P reaching 4300, if we can sustain a rally for more than one day.</p><h2><b>Markets like this take a lot of attention and self-control</b></h2><p>Though it feels very stressful, and not as much fun to be in the market, I require myself to review the facts and still find much to be optimistic regarding prospects for a strong finish to 2022. I could very well envision reaching higher highs (5200+?) before December. Don’t let your emotions get in the way of cutting losers. I won&#39;t say I am perfect on that score, but I try to be aware when I am emotionally overly attached. There&#39;s a fine line between having conviction and being emotionally attached. Trading is like any other high-performance activity, you get to a level where mental strength and self-awareness are just as important to success as technique or tactics. You need those qualities to monitor your mental state and whether you are overly attached to anyone&#39;s position and have the strength to counter that tendency. You must also have the mental strength to maintain conviction to hold a position if you have done the best to vet it from a fundamental side and technical aspect. It takes guts to watch one of your stocks fall further and further and not let it get to you.</p><p>Amazon (AMZN) announced a 1 to 20 split. I predicted this weeks ago. Here is what I think they do next. The week ending February 5th, I wrote in my weekly analysis that AMZN will likely be the next to announce a split. I am basing my speculation on what happens next by who Andrew Jassy is, and also something I thought made a ton of sense years ago, and that is to spin off AWS. AWS is by all rights a very substantial company in its own right and could be worth $750B to 1 Trillion on its own. AWS really has little to do with the rest of AMZN. It just makes a ton of sense for the shareholders to have the company trade separately if only to boost the value of AMZN stock. As you may already know Jassy was the CEO of AWS before he was named CEO of all of AMZN. AWS is the fastest-growing part of AMZN, providing huge cash flow to fund the other parts of AMZN. The split still makes sense, AMZN could hold a special class of stock that gives them a dividend or hive off a huge amount of debt while interest rates are so low. The fact Jassy would see his baby trade as an independent creation is just a bonus. The boost in capitalization via the spin-off and the present value of a huge chunk of change to fund operations for years to come is a good trade-off. Also, the spin-off would lower the heat on the FCC suing them as a monopoly, which would be a huge distraction. The fact that he split the company and announced a buyback after years of not buying shares, tells me that he wants to boost the stock price. If he keeps the buyback as an ongoing program, the AWS is the ultimate move for shareholder value.</p><p>I don’t have a lot of exciting news about new trades. Really my current role right now is to try to manage my current positions and use the volatility to my advantage. So not a lot of visible movement but a lot of watchful waiting. Buying the dip yes, but is this the lowest low? Can the stock go lower? When my positions are green are they high enough to trim shares? That is less fun than falling in love with a new trade.</p><p>stocks can go lower, however, I do believe that the upside at this point for many tech names more than compensates the risk. Why do I harp on tech? Precisely because it has become very unfashionable. Many of the wise men and women have eschewed growth stocks, especially stocks that were the most esteemed only a few months ago. I am a reflexive contrarian, and this year has been building up to be my biggest contrarian play ever.</p><h2><b>My Trades</b></h2><p>First, the bad news was I had a position in DocuSign (DOCU) they announced earnings and revenue that was very good but forward guidance disappointed me. I promptly sold the position at 78 in the aftermarket. I really like the business model, so at some point, once DOCU finally finds support I will try to leg into it. Meanwhile, I will use the funds freed up from this name to buy more Upstart (UPST).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> (FB) spent $44.5 billion on share buybacks in 2021 leading the company to repurchase 8.4% of the current market cap. The stock is starting to have solid downside protection. It should continue to buy in shares at the same rate this year. FB recently had a gap down, charting shows that stocks tend to fill in gaps. Let’s take a look at a chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d09f52f172ecb6b342a2985ee606f74\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>seekingalpha.com</p><p>On Friday FB sold down below 190, I think that is a great level. I already started building a position, I am hoping it allows me to acquire more in the 180s.</p><p>Asana (ASAN) got punished for not projecting profits near term because they want to re-invest. I have a small position in it. I took profits a while ago. I’m going to rebuild the position again, they said they are giving up profits now to add capabilities to the product. I believe the stock will regain some altitude once the market comes back to its senses and reward the forward-thinking. You are supposed to invest in the future. If the CEO had no credibility and the track record of this company was bad I wouldn&#39;t buy in. Instead, it has an exceptional growth pattern, and the stock is on sale.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPO\">XPO Logistics</a>, Inc.(XPO) stock rallied more than 8% in after-market trading on Tuesday after the logistics company announced plans to split itself into two publicly traded companies, a deal it said would be tax-free to shareholders. One of the companies will be one of the largest US companies in the LTL trucking business. The other part would encompass XPO&#39;s freight brokerage business, which matches loads from shipping customers to available trucks to carry them, and the other is its U.S. trucking business. This is essentially a technology adjacent cloud application business. I am very excited to receive this new company. Its European business and North American intermodal operations would be sold. The company said it expects to complete the spin-off in the fourth quarter of 2022, subject to the final approval of the XPO board. In a presentation to shareholders, XPO pegged 2021 revenue from its freight brokerage company at $4.8 billion, and from the trucking business at $4.1 billion. Shares of XPO ended the regular trading day up 2.7%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> (EXPE) Strong revenue growth FCF and mostly domestic travel so less affected by Ukraine. Still, this name has been hammered on every development in Ukraine. I currently have Call options, now I will accumulate the underlying equities.</p><p>Airbnb (ABNB) I think I bought this stock near its bottom, at about 150. I started this position 2 weeks ago and I need to fill this one up. I am hoping to get some in the 140s. I like the reopening related tech companies since Covid is in the rearview mirror.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> (PYPL) is another once high flier that has fallen so much that it’s practically a value play. I have been adding to my position under 100, and I plan on continuing to do so this week.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG) I managed to do a fast money trade with DDOG in the aftermath of its earnings. I started buying it again, and I guess I should have waited even though I started buying at a lower level than the last time. I am pretty confident that DDOG is a quality name.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-16 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4022":"陆运","ASAN":"阿莎娜","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","DDOG":"Datadog","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件","DOCU":"Docusign","ABNB":"爱彼迎","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","XPO":"XPO Logistics","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","EXPE":"Expedia","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","AMZN":"亚马逊","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2219220927","content_text":"Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t sure what he meant, he added the stock market crash, what did I think? The question took the notion that the market is going to crash as received wisdom. He was asking what I thought the ramifications would be. I said that I didn’t think there would be a crash. That was met with a bit of awkward silence. Other conversations this weekend with friends and acquaintances yielded a certainty that inflation will be intractable and will be a persistent feature of the economic landscape for years to come. I don’t agree, I may have underestimated how long inflation news would persist, but I believe that inflation will begin to recede in mid-May, certainly, none of these conditions portends a crash.Crashes happen when no one is expecting them. That everyone is talking about millionaires who were first in into whatever fad everyone is convinced will never go down. The most recent that comes to mind is the teenage crypto millionaires. I am not claiming that crypto is about to crash, just using it as an example. When no one believes the stock markets (or real estate and yes Bitcoin) can EVER crash that is when it really hits hard. This may sound familiar to the older folk who’ve lived through the housing bubble, or dot com bubble. If not let me familiarize you with the phenomenon. Everyone and his brother is in the market including your cab driver. Pretty soon everyone is buying in and sure they will be millionaires. It’s at that point that the market has run out of buyers, that's when a \"crash\" happens. The catalyst doesn’t matter right now, It’s like setting up dominoes standing up in a long row, even the tiniest touch on the first one can create a huge chain reaction. If everyone is already “All In” and maybe even leveraged the only thing to do is sell. That is how a crash happens.Here it is the complete opposite, everyone is pushing the notion of a crashEveryone is talking about a bear market, the economy is going into a recession, why? Take your pick. The market is running out of steam. No! The economy is overheating and Powell is behind the curve on inflation! He must raise interest rates 200-300 basis points, and then he’ll cause a recession by overtightening. Have you noticed that these two opposing notions are punted in the same conversation? Let’s get this straight, a recession means the economy has slowed so much that it is falling. Officially, economists count an economy in recession if there are 2 quarters with negative growth. While inflation is usually a result of the market growing TOO FAST. So naturally the purveyors of hot air resort to using stagflation, which encompasses both zero growth AND inflation. This conflation is gaining a lot of currency as those who promote the notion that stagflation happens all the time. In fact, it is exceedingly rare, rarer than a blue moon. The only time stagflation has ever happened in modern history was when the term was coined, during the Carter administration. Will rising interest rates create more chips? More homes? More cars? No, raising interest rates will slow the demand for those items. I am not against raising interest rates, but even as interest rates are rising that the economy will continue to grow, and supply will return lowering prices. I believe that Powell will not overreact, I still see no evidence to believe otherwise, no matter how many times pundits bring it up.Let me try and tie all of this together, 2022 is not the 1970s, Stagflation is a rare thing to the special circumstances of the 1970s. A wage-price hike spiral is very unlikely to happen. Surprisingly or perhaps not, worker wages are the biggest expense and the largest influence on inflation. Remember I said that the 70s had hardly any productivity? That is not at all true today.Market sentiment gets super negative when participants’ imaginations are unboundA big rule about market behavior is how it hates the unknown. The market will embrace every negative notion and worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario that is remotely viable in this case is stagflation so that is where the chatter is. For every piece of news, people are inventing new ways to hate the market and convince the person next to them to dump stocks. In a market like this with most people being sellers, it wouldn't take anything at all positive to create a buying stampede. In this kind of setupLet’s be real the last few months have not been all that funHistorically 15% down on the S&P is not unusual, even the 20% correction on the Nasdaq is not unusual. You can have episodes like this and not only regain ATH but exceed the all-time high in no time. On the other hand, long-running bear markets start this way. Lucky for us, you can’t have a sustained bear market without a recession, and we aren’t having that. At some point, the market will adjust valuation, create a base and begin to rise again. The market rises about 80% of the time, so without a degrading economy, you may have a momentary fall to the 20% level but are likely to bounce back. That is kind of where we are now, valuations have been adjusted downward, for a laundry list of reasons, Covid, inflation, Putin’s war, Interest hikes that could hit the economy. I admit we have had quite a run of negativity. I also admit that the indexes have not found a support level. However we are getting very close, the forward PE is about 18 times on the S&P, which should be the right valuation even at +2.5% on the 10-year.Prediction timeI am not saying we will take off like a rocket, we had instead very rocky trading last week. I do believe that leading to the Fed announcement we could have some weakness and then a decent pop on the news conference, as I expect Powell to find his dovish voice again. I guess this is another prediction. The reason why I am saying Powell will sound conciliatory is the likelihood of a default of sovereign debt by Russia. This might have a bigger effect on European banks than domestic, the Fed may fear that it might disrupt the liquidity of the US bond market. Our banks have been through all kinds of simulations for years and are not allowed to leverage up anywhere near where banks were in 2007 when we had the housing bubble. This may yet be another reason for the market to sell off when the default is announced perhaps in a week or 2. I think this will be a very good opportunity to confirm that we have finally found that base. Before then I think we get a decent pop from Powell’s performanceWe haven’t achieved a base as yet but definitely have a trading rangeWe first touched back to 4200 on the S&P in January, we’ve trading around this level to now. We have been chopping around this level and higher. We are not yet in a downtrend on the S&P. Let’s take a look at the chart.seekingalpha.comWell, nothing is screaming at me, but this 4200ish level could be a base. If my prediction is correct, looking at this chart I could see S&P reaching 4300, if we can sustain a rally for more than one day.Markets like this take a lot of attention and self-controlThough it feels very stressful, and not as much fun to be in the market, I require myself to review the facts and still find much to be optimistic regarding prospects for a strong finish to 2022. I could very well envision reaching higher highs (5200+?) before December. Don’t let your emotions get in the way of cutting losers. I won't say I am perfect on that score, but I try to be aware when I am emotionally overly attached. There's a fine line between having conviction and being emotionally attached. Trading is like any other high-performance activity, you get to a level where mental strength and self-awareness are just as important to success as technique or tactics. You need those qualities to monitor your mental state and whether you are overly attached to anyone's position and have the strength to counter that tendency. You must also have the mental strength to maintain conviction to hold a position if you have done the best to vet it from a fundamental side and technical aspect. It takes guts to watch one of your stocks fall further and further and not let it get to you.Amazon (AMZN) announced a 1 to 20 split. I predicted this weeks ago. Here is what I think they do next. The week ending February 5th, I wrote in my weekly analysis that AMZN will likely be the next to announce a split. I am basing my speculation on what happens next by who Andrew Jassy is, and also something I thought made a ton of sense years ago, and that is to spin off AWS. AWS is by all rights a very substantial company in its own right and could be worth $750B to 1 Trillion on its own. AWS really has little to do with the rest of AMZN. It just makes a ton of sense for the shareholders to have the company trade separately if only to boost the value of AMZN stock. As you may already know Jassy was the CEO of AWS before he was named CEO of all of AMZN. AWS is the fastest-growing part of AMZN, providing huge cash flow to fund the other parts of AMZN. The split still makes sense, AMZN could hold a special class of stock that gives them a dividend or hive off a huge amount of debt while interest rates are so low. The fact Jassy would see his baby trade as an independent creation is just a bonus. The boost in capitalization via the spin-off and the present value of a huge chunk of change to fund operations for years to come is a good trade-off. Also, the spin-off would lower the heat on the FCC suing them as a monopoly, which would be a huge distraction. The fact that he split the company and announced a buyback after years of not buying shares, tells me that he wants to boost the stock price. If he keeps the buyback as an ongoing program, the AWS is the ultimate move for shareholder value.I don’t have a lot of exciting news about new trades. Really my current role right now is to try to manage my current positions and use the volatility to my advantage. So not a lot of visible movement but a lot of watchful waiting. Buying the dip yes, but is this the lowest low? Can the stock go lower? When my positions are green are they high enough to trim shares? That is less fun than falling in love with a new trade.stocks can go lower, however, I do believe that the upside at this point for many tech names more than compensates the risk. Why do I harp on tech? Precisely because it has become very unfashionable. Many of the wise men and women have eschewed growth stocks, especially stocks that were the most esteemed only a few months ago. I am a reflexive contrarian, and this year has been building up to be my biggest contrarian play ever.My TradesFirst, the bad news was I had a position in DocuSign (DOCU) they announced earnings and revenue that was very good but forward guidance disappointed me. I promptly sold the position at 78 in the aftermarket. I really like the business model, so at some point, once DOCU finally finds support I will try to leg into it. Meanwhile, I will use the funds freed up from this name to buy more Upstart (UPST).Meta Platforms (FB) spent $44.5 billion on share buybacks in 2021 leading the company to repurchase 8.4% of the current market cap. The stock is starting to have solid downside protection. It should continue to buy in shares at the same rate this year. FB recently had a gap down, charting shows that stocks tend to fill in gaps. Let’s take a look at a chart.seekingalpha.comOn Friday FB sold down below 190, I think that is a great level. I already started building a position, I am hoping it allows me to acquire more in the 180s.Asana (ASAN) got punished for not projecting profits near term because they want to re-invest. I have a small position in it. I took profits a while ago. I’m going to rebuild the position again, they said they are giving up profits now to add capabilities to the product. I believe the stock will regain some altitude once the market comes back to its senses and reward the forward-thinking. You are supposed to invest in the future. If the CEO had no credibility and the track record of this company was bad I wouldn't buy in. Instead, it has an exceptional growth pattern, and the stock is on sale.XPO Logistics, Inc.(XPO) stock rallied more than 8% in after-market trading on Tuesday after the logistics company announced plans to split itself into two publicly traded companies, a deal it said would be tax-free to shareholders. One of the companies will be one of the largest US companies in the LTL trucking business. The other part would encompass XPO's freight brokerage business, which matches loads from shipping customers to available trucks to carry them, and the other is its U.S. trucking business. This is essentially a technology adjacent cloud application business. I am very excited to receive this new company. Its European business and North American intermodal operations would be sold. The company said it expects to complete the spin-off in the fourth quarter of 2022, subject to the final approval of the XPO board. In a presentation to shareholders, XPO pegged 2021 revenue from its freight brokerage company at $4.8 billion, and from the trucking business at $4.1 billion. Shares of XPO ended the regular trading day up 2.7%.Expedia (EXPE) Strong revenue growth FCF and mostly domestic travel so less affected by Ukraine. Still, this name has been hammered on every development in Ukraine. I currently have Call options, now I will accumulate the underlying equities.Airbnb (ABNB) I think I bought this stock near its bottom, at about 150. I started this position 2 weeks ago and I need to fill this one up. I am hoping to get some in the 140s. I like the reopening related tech companies since Covid is in the rearview mirror.PayPal (PYPL) is another once high flier that has fallen so much that it’s practically a value play. I have been adding to my position under 100, and I plan on continuing to do so this week.Datadog (DDOG) I managed to do a fast money trade with DDOG in the aftermath of its earnings. I started buying it again, and I guess I should have waited even though I started buying at a lower level than the last time. I am pretty confident that DDOG is a quality name.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096318280,"gmtCreate":1644300539065,"gmtModify":1676533910453,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will pay attention to these stocks","listText":"Will pay attention to these stocks","text":"Will pay attention to these stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096318280","repostId":"1189839329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189839329","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1644298836,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189839329?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-08 13:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Of The Best Nasdaq Stocks to Buy On The Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189839329","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The S&P 500 is off to a shaky start to 2022, down 5.5% year-to-date. As bad as things have been for ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500 is off to a shaky start to 2022, down 5.5% year-to-date. As bad as things have been for the S&amp;P 500, they have been even worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which is down 9.9% so far in this year.</p><p>Investors are dumping Nasdaq stocks due to concerns over rising interest rates, which negatively impact the valuation of growth stocks and unprofitable companies. But the rotation out of Nasdaq stocks has also created some buying opportunities for long-term investors willing to stomach the volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78675e7fe7845c20b653ecf25567a214\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Here are seven of the best Nasdaq stocks to buy, according to Bank of America.</p><p><b>Apple Inc</b></p><p>Shares of iPhone maker Apple have held up relatively well so far in 2022, down just 2.4% year-to-date. Analyst <b>Wamsi Mohan</b> says Apple&#39;s robust cash flow provides defense for investors against a volatile market backdrop. Mohan is projecting a strong iPhone upgrade cycle in fiscal 2023 driven by 5G upgrades that will enable more virtual reality and augmented reality applications. In addition, he says an increasing mix of high-margin Services segment growth will boost Apple&#39;s profitability and reduce its reliance on iPhone sales numbers.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $215 price target for AAPL stock.</p><p><b>Microsoft Corporation</b></p><p>Microsoft shares haven&#39;t fared as well as Apple so far in 2022, falling 9% year-to-date. Microsoft made major headlines in January when it announced a $68.7 billion buyout of video game developer <b>Activision Blizzard, Inc.</b>, Microsoft&#39;s largest acquisition in company history. The tech giant is clearly going all-in on gaming, but analyst <b>Brad Sills</b> says there are plenty of other reasons to like the stock, including its potential for accelerating Azure cloud services growth and its sustainable free cash flow growth in the high teen percentage range.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $365 price target for MSFT stock.</p><p><b>Alphabet, Inc.</b></p><p>Google and YouTube parent company Alphabet has held up relatively well so far in 2022, trading lower by just 1.2%. Alphabet made a big splash with its fourth-quarter earnings report in early February, beating analyst expectations for earnings and revenue and announcing a 20-for-1 stock split. Analyst <b>Justin Post</b> says Alphabet is facing difficult year-over-year comps in 2022, but the stock split underscores Alphabet&#39;s shareholder friendly management team. Post says Alphabet has more earnings stability than many of its big tech peers.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $2,510 price target for GOOGL stock.</p><p><b>Amazon.com, Inc.</b></p><p>Cloud services and e-commerce leader Amazon recouped much of its early-year losses when the company reported a big earnings beat in early February, and the stock is now down just 3.3% year-to-date. Post says Amazon&#39;s AWS cloud revenue growth acceleration, its improving margins and its rising Prime subscription prices make it his top FANG stock pick for 2022. Post says the Prime membership price hike alone could generate an extra $1.5 billion in annual profits for Amazon.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and a $4,450 price target for AMZN stock.</p><p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b></p><p>Meta Platforms is the parent company of popular social media platforms Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Unlike most of the other stocks on this list, 2022 has been a total disaster for Meta Platforms so far, and the stock is already down 31.4% year-to-date. Most of the sell-off came after Meta reported its metaverse business lost $10 billion in 2021 and said Apple&#39;s privacy changes will cost the company $10 billion in revenue in 2022. Despite all of Meta&#39;s issues, Post says investors should buy the dip and wait out the company&#39;s content, targeting and metaverse transition year.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $333 price target for FB stock.</p><p><b>NVIDIA Corporation</b></p><p>Semiconductor giant NVIDIA has also struggled in 2022, and its shares are down 15.7% year-to-date. Analyst <b>Vivek Arya</b> says Nvidia remains a top stock pick given his confidence in Nvidia&#39;s gaming, data center, omniverse and auto market opportunities. Demand outpaces supply in the semiconductor industry in 2021, but Arya says constraints should start to ease in the second half of 2022. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission sued to block Nvidia&#39;s $40 billion buyout of chip designer Arm in December, but Arya says Nvidia&#39;s long-term strategy is not reliant on the completion of the deal.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $375 price target for NVDA stock.</p><p><b>ASML Holding NV</b></p><p>ASML is the world’s second-largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment supplier. ASML shares are down 17.4% year-to-date, but analyst <b>Didier Scemama</b> says the company&#39;s fiscal 2023 is shaping up to be a big year. Scemama is modeling for 17% revenue growth in fiscal 2023, and management has expressed confidence in customer demand, capacity expansion and supply chain improvements. Scemama says these tailwinds suggest there could be significant upside to ASML&#39;s long-term 2025 financial targets that the company announced back in September.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $956 price target for ASML stock.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Of The Best Nasdaq Stocks to Buy On The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Of The Best Nasdaq Stocks to Buy On The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-08 13:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500 is off to a shaky start to 2022, down 5.5% year-to-date. As bad as things have been for the S&amp;P 500, they have been even worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which is down 9.9% so far in this year.</p><p>Investors are dumping Nasdaq stocks due to concerns over rising interest rates, which negatively impact the valuation of growth stocks and unprofitable companies. But the rotation out of Nasdaq stocks has also created some buying opportunities for long-term investors willing to stomach the volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78675e7fe7845c20b653ecf25567a214\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Here are seven of the best Nasdaq stocks to buy, according to Bank of America.</p><p><b>Apple Inc</b></p><p>Shares of iPhone maker Apple have held up relatively well so far in 2022, down just 2.4% year-to-date. Analyst <b>Wamsi Mohan</b> says Apple&#39;s robust cash flow provides defense for investors against a volatile market backdrop. Mohan is projecting a strong iPhone upgrade cycle in fiscal 2023 driven by 5G upgrades that will enable more virtual reality and augmented reality applications. In addition, he says an increasing mix of high-margin Services segment growth will boost Apple&#39;s profitability and reduce its reliance on iPhone sales numbers.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $215 price target for AAPL stock.</p><p><b>Microsoft Corporation</b></p><p>Microsoft shares haven&#39;t fared as well as Apple so far in 2022, falling 9% year-to-date. Microsoft made major headlines in January when it announced a $68.7 billion buyout of video game developer <b>Activision Blizzard, Inc.</b>, Microsoft&#39;s largest acquisition in company history. The tech giant is clearly going all-in on gaming, but analyst <b>Brad Sills</b> says there are plenty of other reasons to like the stock, including its potential for accelerating Azure cloud services growth and its sustainable free cash flow growth in the high teen percentage range.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $365 price target for MSFT stock.</p><p><b>Alphabet, Inc.</b></p><p>Google and YouTube parent company Alphabet has held up relatively well so far in 2022, trading lower by just 1.2%. Alphabet made a big splash with its fourth-quarter earnings report in early February, beating analyst expectations for earnings and revenue and announcing a 20-for-1 stock split. Analyst <b>Justin Post</b> says Alphabet is facing difficult year-over-year comps in 2022, but the stock split underscores Alphabet&#39;s shareholder friendly management team. Post says Alphabet has more earnings stability than many of its big tech peers.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $2,510 price target for GOOGL stock.</p><p><b>Amazon.com, Inc.</b></p><p>Cloud services and e-commerce leader Amazon recouped much of its early-year losses when the company reported a big earnings beat in early February, and the stock is now down just 3.3% year-to-date. Post says Amazon&#39;s AWS cloud revenue growth acceleration, its improving margins and its rising Prime subscription prices make it his top FANG stock pick for 2022. Post says the Prime membership price hike alone could generate an extra $1.5 billion in annual profits for Amazon.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and a $4,450 price target for AMZN stock.</p><p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b></p><p>Meta Platforms is the parent company of popular social media platforms Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Unlike most of the other stocks on this list, 2022 has been a total disaster for Meta Platforms so far, and the stock is already down 31.4% year-to-date. Most of the sell-off came after Meta reported its metaverse business lost $10 billion in 2021 and said Apple&#39;s privacy changes will cost the company $10 billion in revenue in 2022. Despite all of Meta&#39;s issues, Post says investors should buy the dip and wait out the company&#39;s content, targeting and metaverse transition year.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $333 price target for FB stock.</p><p><b>NVIDIA Corporation</b></p><p>Semiconductor giant NVIDIA has also struggled in 2022, and its shares are down 15.7% year-to-date. Analyst <b>Vivek Arya</b> says Nvidia remains a top stock pick given his confidence in Nvidia&#39;s gaming, data center, omniverse and auto market opportunities. Demand outpaces supply in the semiconductor industry in 2021, but Arya says constraints should start to ease in the second half of 2022. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission sued to block Nvidia&#39;s $40 billion buyout of chip designer Arm in December, but Arya says Nvidia&#39;s long-term strategy is not reliant on the completion of the deal.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $375 price target for NVDA stock.</p><p><b>ASML Holding NV</b></p><p>ASML is the world’s second-largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment supplier. ASML shares are down 17.4% year-to-date, but analyst <b>Didier Scemama</b> says the company&#39;s fiscal 2023 is shaping up to be a big year. Scemama is modeling for 17% revenue growth in fiscal 2023, and management has expressed confidence in customer demand, capacity expansion and supply chain improvements. Scemama says these tailwinds suggest there could be significant upside to ASML&#39;s long-term 2025 financial targets that the company announced back in September.</p><p>Bank of America has a Buy rating and $956 price target for ASML stock.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","ASML":"阿斯麦","AMZN":"亚马逊","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189839329","content_text":"The S&P 500 is off to a shaky start to 2022, down 5.5% year-to-date. As bad as things have been for the S&P 500, they have been even worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which is down 9.9% so far in this year.Investors are dumping Nasdaq stocks due to concerns over rising interest rates, which negatively impact the valuation of growth stocks and unprofitable companies. But the rotation out of Nasdaq stocks has also created some buying opportunities for long-term investors willing to stomach the volatility.Here are seven of the best Nasdaq stocks to buy, according to Bank of America.Apple IncShares of iPhone maker Apple have held up relatively well so far in 2022, down just 2.4% year-to-date. Analyst Wamsi Mohan says Apple's robust cash flow provides defense for investors against a volatile market backdrop. Mohan is projecting a strong iPhone upgrade cycle in fiscal 2023 driven by 5G upgrades that will enable more virtual reality and augmented reality applications. In addition, he says an increasing mix of high-margin Services segment growth will boost Apple's profitability and reduce its reliance on iPhone sales numbers.Bank of America has a Buy rating and $215 price target for AAPL stock.Microsoft CorporationMicrosoft shares haven't fared as well as Apple so far in 2022, falling 9% year-to-date. Microsoft made major headlines in January when it announced a $68.7 billion buyout of video game developer Activision Blizzard, Inc., Microsoft's largest acquisition in company history. The tech giant is clearly going all-in on gaming, but analyst Brad Sills says there are plenty of other reasons to like the stock, including its potential for accelerating Azure cloud services growth and its sustainable free cash flow growth in the high teen percentage range.Bank of America has a Buy rating and $365 price target for MSFT stock.Alphabet, Inc.Google and YouTube parent company Alphabet has held up relatively well so far in 2022, trading lower by just 1.2%. Alphabet made a big splash with its fourth-quarter earnings report in early February, beating analyst expectations for earnings and revenue and announcing a 20-for-1 stock split. Analyst Justin Post says Alphabet is facing difficult year-over-year comps in 2022, but the stock split underscores Alphabet's shareholder friendly management team. Post says Alphabet has more earnings stability than many of its big tech peers.Bank of America has a Buy rating and $2,510 price target for GOOGL stock.Amazon.com, Inc.Cloud services and e-commerce leader Amazon recouped much of its early-year losses when the company reported a big earnings beat in early February, and the stock is now down just 3.3% year-to-date. Post says Amazon's AWS cloud revenue growth acceleration, its improving margins and its rising Prime subscription prices make it his top FANG stock pick for 2022. Post says the Prime membership price hike alone could generate an extra $1.5 billion in annual profits for Amazon.Bank of America has a Buy rating and a $4,450 price target for AMZN stock.Meta Platforms IncMeta Platforms is the parent company of popular social media platforms Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Unlike most of the other stocks on this list, 2022 has been a total disaster for Meta Platforms so far, and the stock is already down 31.4% year-to-date. Most of the sell-off came after Meta reported its metaverse business lost $10 billion in 2021 and said Apple's privacy changes will cost the company $10 billion in revenue in 2022. Despite all of Meta's issues, Post says investors should buy the dip and wait out the company's content, targeting and metaverse transition year.Bank of America has a Buy rating and $333 price target for FB stock.NVIDIA CorporationSemiconductor giant NVIDIA has also struggled in 2022, and its shares are down 15.7% year-to-date. Analyst Vivek Arya says Nvidia remains a top stock pick given his confidence in Nvidia's gaming, data center, omniverse and auto market opportunities. Demand outpaces supply in the semiconductor industry in 2021, but Arya says constraints should start to ease in the second half of 2022. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission sued to block Nvidia's $40 billion buyout of chip designer Arm in December, but Arya says Nvidia's long-term strategy is not reliant on the completion of the deal.Bank of America has a Buy rating and $375 price target for NVDA stock.ASML Holding NVASML is the world’s second-largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment supplier. ASML shares are down 17.4% year-to-date, but analyst Didier Scemama says the company's fiscal 2023 is shaping up to be a big year. Scemama is modeling for 17% revenue growth in fiscal 2023, and management has expressed confidence in customer demand, capacity expansion and supply chain improvements. Scemama says these tailwinds suggest there could be significant upside to ASML's long-term 2025 financial targets that the company announced back in September.Bank of America has a Buy rating and $956 price target for ASML stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004730484,"gmtCreate":1642687985260,"gmtModify":1676533735512,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Accumulate during market correction&nbsp;","listText":"Accumulate during market correction&nbsp;","text":"Accumulate during market correction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004730484","repostId":"1190271564","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190271564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642663422,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190271564?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Got $3,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190271564","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These Berkshire Hathaway-backed winners could supercharge your portfolio.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett stands atop the pantheon of history&#39;s most successful investors. If you were lucky enough to own a $3,000 stake in <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) when he took control of the company in 1965, that position would now be worth nearly $81 million.</p><p>The Oracle of Omaha&#39;s knack for finding high-quality long-term investment opportunities has led to market-crushing results, and his storied performance means the investing world tends to keep a close eye on his company&#39;s holdings. Let&#39;s take a closer look at five top stocks backed by Berkshire Hathaway that are worth buying and holding for the long term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99bd55ae86722cb44e242a3e8fcd151\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.</span></p><p><b>1. Apple</b></p><p>With <b>Apple</b>&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) share price having surged roughly 32.1% over the last year and the company currently sporting a market capitalization of more than $2.76 trillion, it&#39;s not unreasonable to look at the stock with a bit of a cautious eye. On the other hand, there&#39;s basically never been a bad time for<i>long-term</i>investors to buy the stock in the company&#39;s history.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807818ed8a5e4c2574220b38b5cf3a64\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p>Apple stands as the largest stock holding in the Berkshire portfolio, by far. Based on the last 13F filing from Buffett&#39;s company, the iPhone-maker accounts for nearly 43% of the investment conglomerate&#39;s stock holdings. That signifies an incredible vote of confidence from the modern era&#39;s most successful investor.</p><p>Between its market-leading mobile hardware and fast-growing software and services ecosystem, Apple&#39;s core businesses continue to look very strong, and it&#39;s likely that the company will also score wins in some exciting new fields. The California-based tech giant is already a leader in the wearable technology space, and it has huge opportunities in augmented reality hardware, autonomous electric vehicles, and other emerging product categories. The recent run-up in valuation means investors may want todollar-cost averageinto Apple stock, but the company looks well-positioned to continue growing over the long term.</p><p><b>2. Verizon</b></p><p>With a multi-billion-dollar investment in the fourth quarter of 2020, Berkshire Hathaway quickly made <b>Verizon Communications</b> (NYSE:VZ) one of its largest stock holdings. Internet communications are at the heart of modern business operations, and the telecom giant&#39;s top-rated service and infrastructure advantages should help it continue to be a category leader.</p><p>Verizon has been spending big to secure spectrum band and build out infrastructure for5G, but it&#39;s still in the early stages of benefiting from the rollout of the next-generation network technology. In addition to offering consumers a major leap forward with upload and download speeds, Verizon&#39;s 5G service will likely also help boost sales and earnings in the enterprise market.</p><p>With shares trading at roughly 10 times this year&#39;s expected earnings and sporting a 4.8% dividend yield, Verizon stock continues to look attractively valued. Investors even have a chance to buy the stock at prices lower than Berkshire got in at.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30d6f848f83c57969cb29b9d24b3d1b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>VZ DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><b>3. Snowflake</b></p><p>As a cloud software-as-a-service stock that trades at lofty price-to-sales multiple,<b>Snowflake</b> (NYSE:SNOW) is one of the more unusual companies in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. While the investment conglomerate has gradually been shifting more of its portfolio weight toward the technology sector, it&#39;s still pretty eye-catching to see Buffett get behind a company that trades at roughly 83 times this year&#39;s expected sales.</p><p>It&#39;s clear that the Oracle of Omaha and the investment team at Berkshire see something special in the data warehousing and analytics player. Snowflake&#39;s platform allows data to be gathered and analyzed from otherwise walled-off sources, enabling applications to have quick and easy access to a much wider spectrum of valuable information. The company offers category-leading service in its niche, and with more customers joining its platform and bringing along valuable data, it&#39;s benefiting from a network effect that could produce a powerful long-term moat.</p><p><b>4. Amazon</b></p><p>Perhaps more so than any other company,<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN) is built to win the future. The company&#39;s core e-commerce and cloud infrastructure businesses look poised for strong growth over the long term as these industries continue to grow, and its core business pillars should provide the foundation for new growth bets that help the company continue to expand.</p><p>With a market cap of more than $1.6 trillion, Amazon is already a massive company, but it still has plenty of room for growth over the long term. The company&#39;s strength in e-commerce and cloud services has helped it rapidly build its position in the digital advertising market, and Amazon&#39;s excellent collection of resources and proven penchant for innovation suggest that it will be able to continue scoring wins in new categories that drive growth and complement its existing businesses.</p><p><b>5. Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p>If you want to invest like Buffett, why limit yourself to picking just a handful of stocks in the Berkshire portfolio? Particularly when you can buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway directly and get exposure to all of the stocks in the company&#39;s portfolio, its subsidiaries, and its real estate, insurance, and energy businesses. In addition to Apple, Verizon, Amazon, and Snowflake, Berkshire Hathaway also owns substantial stakes in companies including <b>Bank of America</b>,<b>American Express</b>,<b>Coca-Cola</b>, and other industry-leading names.</p><p>Even after buying back more than $20 billion worth of its own stock last year, the investment conglomerate has a massive pool of resources and ended its third quarter with a record $149 billion in cash on the books. Owning Berkshire Hathaway stock means that when Buffett and his team of analysts go shopping with that money, your own portfolio gets exposure to those buys before they&#39;re made known to the public.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Got $3,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGot $3,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 15:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/got-3000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett stands atop the pantheon of history's most successful investors. If you were lucky enough to own a $3,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) when he took control of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/got-3000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","VZ":"威瑞森","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/got-3000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190271564","content_text":"Warren Buffett stands atop the pantheon of history's most successful investors. If you were lucky enough to own a $3,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) when he took control of the company in 1965, that position would now be worth nearly $81 million.The Oracle of Omaha's knack for finding high-quality long-term investment opportunities has led to market-crushing results, and his storied performance means the investing world tends to keep a close eye on his company's holdings. Let's take a closer look at five top stocks backed by Berkshire Hathaway that are worth buying and holding for the long term.IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.1. AppleWith Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) share price having surged roughly 32.1% over the last year and the company currently sporting a market capitalization of more than $2.76 trillion, it's not unreasonable to look at the stock with a bit of a cautious eye. On the other hand, there's basically never been a bad time forlong-terminvestors to buy the stock in the company's history.AAPL DATA BY YCHARTSApple stands as the largest stock holding in the Berkshire portfolio, by far. Based on the last 13F filing from Buffett's company, the iPhone-maker accounts for nearly 43% of the investment conglomerate's stock holdings. That signifies an incredible vote of confidence from the modern era's most successful investor.Between its market-leading mobile hardware and fast-growing software and services ecosystem, Apple's core businesses continue to look very strong, and it's likely that the company will also score wins in some exciting new fields. The California-based tech giant is already a leader in the wearable technology space, and it has huge opportunities in augmented reality hardware, autonomous electric vehicles, and other emerging product categories. The recent run-up in valuation means investors may want todollar-cost averageinto Apple stock, but the company looks well-positioned to continue growing over the long term.2. VerizonWith a multi-billion-dollar investment in the fourth quarter of 2020, Berkshire Hathaway quickly made Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) one of its largest stock holdings. Internet communications are at the heart of modern business operations, and the telecom giant's top-rated service and infrastructure advantages should help it continue to be a category leader.Verizon has been spending big to secure spectrum band and build out infrastructure for5G, but it's still in the early stages of benefiting from the rollout of the next-generation network technology. In addition to offering consumers a major leap forward with upload and download speeds, Verizon's 5G service will likely also help boost sales and earnings in the enterprise market.With shares trading at roughly 10 times this year's expected earnings and sporting a 4.8% dividend yield, Verizon stock continues to look attractively valued. Investors even have a chance to buy the stock at prices lower than Berkshire got in at.VZ DATA BY YCHARTS.3. SnowflakeAs a cloud software-as-a-service stock that trades at lofty price-to-sales multiple,Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) is one of the more unusual companies in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. While the investment conglomerate has gradually been shifting more of its portfolio weight toward the technology sector, it's still pretty eye-catching to see Buffett get behind a company that trades at roughly 83 times this year's expected sales.It's clear that the Oracle of Omaha and the investment team at Berkshire see something special in the data warehousing and analytics player. Snowflake's platform allows data to be gathered and analyzed from otherwise walled-off sources, enabling applications to have quick and easy access to a much wider spectrum of valuable information. The company offers category-leading service in its niche, and with more customers joining its platform and bringing along valuable data, it's benefiting from a network effect that could produce a powerful long-term moat.4. AmazonPerhaps more so than any other company,Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) is built to win the future. The company's core e-commerce and cloud infrastructure businesses look poised for strong growth over the long term as these industries continue to grow, and its core business pillars should provide the foundation for new growth bets that help the company continue to expand.With a market cap of more than $1.6 trillion, Amazon is already a massive company, but it still has plenty of room for growth over the long term. The company's strength in e-commerce and cloud services has helped it rapidly build its position in the digital advertising market, and Amazon's excellent collection of resources and proven penchant for innovation suggest that it will be able to continue scoring wins in new categories that drive growth and complement its existing businesses.5. Berkshire HathawayIf you want to invest like Buffett, why limit yourself to picking just a handful of stocks in the Berkshire portfolio? Particularly when you can buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway directly and get exposure to all of the stocks in the company's portfolio, its subsidiaries, and its real estate, insurance, and energy businesses. In addition to Apple, Verizon, Amazon, and Snowflake, Berkshire Hathaway also owns substantial stakes in companies including Bank of America,American Express,Coca-Cola, and other industry-leading names.Even after buying back more than $20 billion worth of its own stock last year, the investment conglomerate has a massive pool of resources and ended its third quarter with a record $149 billion in cash on the books. Owning Berkshire Hathaway stock means that when Buffett and his team of analysts go shopping with that money, your own portfolio gets exposure to those buys before they're made known to the public.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962410917,"gmtCreate":1669821938739,"gmtModify":1676538250633,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"HardHatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23ad1328f818f7b0f3480f20178deb52","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4231104f06431443cc427421883a6d8","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962410917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}