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2022-11-02

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Strategas：并不存在所谓的美联储转向，美股长期走势尚不明朗

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Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存在所谓的转向。</p><p>Verrone称，2023年3月的三个月欧洲美元期货收益率仍高于5%。上周，3个月期美债与10年期美债如同2年期美债与10年期美债的情形，出现了倒挂。</p><p>他指出，投资者还应该警惕将通胀峰值与收益率峰值等同起来。</p><p>“我们会小心地建立这种联系。在1960年以来的大约16000个交易日中，10年期美债收益率在大约85%的时间里高于CPI。明年CPI回到3%或4%而收益率仍保持在4%或5%的情况在历史上并不罕见。”</p><p>该分析师认为标普500指数反转的门槛很高：“现在市场确实存在季节性因素，但如果要出现持续或定向的走势，则仍需要修复长期趋势。”</p><p>目前，近40%的标普500指数成分股运行于200天移动平均线之上。Verrone认为这种情况很难持续赚钱。如果市场真的在自我修复，将面临巨大的考验。</p><p>纳斯达克100指数与标普500指数近期跌至新低，虽然可能在短期内超卖，但下跌趋势仍然很明显。</p><p>Verrone表示，投资者应继续关注趋势较强的板块，避免趋势较弱的。可选消费品、信息技术、材料、通信服务、公用事业和房地产等板块中，在200天均线上方的成分股比例均低于整体标普指数。</p><p>能源是领涨板块，91%的成分股位于200天均线上方。工业板块则有望成为市场的新领导者。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategas：并不存在所谓的美联储转向，美股长期走势尚不明朗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-01 23:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/821302.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Strategas分析师Chris  Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存在所谓的转向。Verrone称，2023年3月的三个月欧洲美元期货收益率仍高于5%。上周，3个月期美债与10年期美债如同2年期美债与10年期美债的情形，出现了倒挂。他指出，投资者还应该警惕将通胀峰值与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/821302.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f661cac281478d469fe3de13c74563b2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存在所谓的转向。Verrone称，2023年3月的三个月欧洲美元期货收益率仍高于5%。上周，3个月期美债与10年期美债如同2年期美债与10年期美债的情形，出现了倒挂。他指出，投资者还应该警惕将通胀峰值与收益率峰值等同起来。“我们会小心地建立这种联系。在1960年以来的大约16000个交易日中，10年期美债收益率在大约85%的时间里高于CPI。明年CPI回到3%或4%而收益率仍保持在4%或5%的情况在历史上并不罕见。”该分析师认为标普500指数反转的门槛很高：“现在市场确实存在季节性因素，但如果要出现持续或定向的走势，则仍需要修复长期趋势。”目前，近40%的标普500指数成分股运行于200天移动平均线之上。Verrone认为这种情况很难持续赚钱。如果市场真的在自我修复，将面临巨大的考验。纳斯达克100指数与标普500指数近期跌至新低，虽然可能在短期内超卖，但下跌趋势仍然很明显。Verrone表示，投资者应继续关注趋势较强的板块，避免趋势较弱的。可选消费品、信息技术、材料、通信服务、公用事业和房地产等板块中，在200天均线上方的成分股比例均低于整体标普指数。能源是领涨板块，91%的成分股位于200天均线上方。工业板块则有望成为市场的新领导者。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9985104313,"gmtCreate":1667339995732,"gmtModify":1676537898884,"author":{"id":"4104784689184940","authorId":"4104784689184940","name":"BeHumble","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2473e423ee6a904f09b87ca954b59e22","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985104313","repostId":"2280552315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}