Pepermintpat personal page - To The Moon

Pepermintpat

Pepermintpat

No personal profile

70Follow

41Followers

6Topic

0Badge

2023-05-15

This is the force n ability of biting bullets n gritting teeth

Sea’s Path to Profit Paved With Layoffs, Single-Ply Toilet Paper

2023-04-08

Yes! 💪

A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets

2023-04-01

Great opportunities in a decade !

A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice

2023-03-30

Target $280 👍 it's great value n growth

2023-03-20

Ok

Fed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets

2023-03-11

Go for options in $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$

Hawkish Fed talk, disappointing Chinese imports weigh on crude oil

2023-03-11

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$

2023-03-11

Like

2 Reasons to Buy Amazon Stock Before It's Too Late

2023-03-10

OMG!!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-10

Patience

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-10

Ok

Bitcoin Drops Below $20,000 Level for First Time Since January

2023-03-03

Yes!

Want to Get Richer? 3 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever

2023-03-02

Great!

Tiger Chart | Highlights from Tesla's Investor Day: Optimus, Cybertruck, Third-Gen Platform and More

2023-03-02

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$

2023-03-02

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ Time to hedge against stocks

2023-02-28

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Expect $10.20

2023-02-23

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$

2023-02-15

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$

2023-02-14

Like

Wall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios

2023-02-07

Ok

Hedge Funds Caught in Bigger Squeeze Than 2021 Meme Stock Frenzy - Goldman Sachs Note

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4109504542406510","uuid":"4109504542406510","gmtCreate":1646401472447,"gmtModify":1656295497519,"name":"Pepermintpat","pinyin":"pepermintpat","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","hatId":"ca_profile_frame_Lm11L6","hatName":"","vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":41,"headSize":70,"tweetSize":509,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":4,"name":"文化虎","nameTw":"文化虎","represent":"学有所成","factor":"发布30条非转发主帖,其中3条优质帖","iconColor":"8867FB","bgColor":"BDC5FF"},"themeCounts":6,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.79%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"774ec6f7ffe24a9989b2ca2e139f4b37-1","templateUuid":"774ec6f7ffe24a9989b2ca2e139f4b37","name":"Argentinian Tiger","description":"Joined related football topic in the Tiger community","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4b9257022d333bf6d664b757ae424bf","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4b9257022d333bf6d664b757ae424bf","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9928304122","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":3,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.18","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":4001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.10.12","exceedPercentage":"80.83%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577-1","templateUuid":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577","name":"Emerging Contributor","description":"Contributors who received Editor's Pick for the 1st time","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":8,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9970190480,"gmtCreate":1684118442440,"gmtModify":1684119544118,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is the force n ability&nbsp;of biting bullets n gritting teeth","listText":"This is the force n ability&nbsp;of biting bullets n gritting teeth","text":"This is the force n ability of biting bullets n gritting teeth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970190480","repostId":"1145646911","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145646911","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684116232,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145646911?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-15 10:03","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Sea’s Path to Profit Paved With Layoffs, Single-Ply Toilet Paper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145646911","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"CEO of Singapore’s Sea says company is now ‘self-sufficient’Shift comes after ruthless cost-cutting ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>CEO of Singapore’s Sea says company is now ‘self-sufficient’</p></li><li><p>Shift comes after ruthless cost-cutting drive in the past year</p></li></ul><p>Just over a year ago, Forrest Li was laid up in bed with Covid, fretting about the future of his company, Sea Ltd. So he propped himself up on a pillow to hammer out the latest in a series of memos that would change the course of his business — and perhaps the tech industry.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Sea had been a stock market phenom, racing to a market capitalization of more than $200 billion despite huge losses, but the world had changed. Investors had turned against money-losing tech companies. So Sea had to change with it, Li wrote. With a burning fever and nagging cough, he told his leadership team it was time to focus on profit and exit India.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That memo kicked off a sweeping overhaul of Sea over the next few months. The company laid off roughly more than 7,500 employees, or about 10% of its workforce, though Sea declined to disclose the actual numbers. It froze pay. Li and his leadership team gave up their salaries altogether.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Business-class flights were banned; everyone would fly economy, no matter how far. Daily meal expenses were capped at $30, hotels at $150 a night. Snacks disappeared from offices. Sea replaced the local luxury tea brand TWG with Lipton. In at least some restrooms, two-ply toilet paper gave way to one-ply.</p><p>“We cared about every single dollar, every single cent,” Li said at his office in Singapore, his first interview in more than two years. “You can have a big dream and a big ambition, but what if you cannot survive? You always have this kind of noise back in your mind saying we may be running out of money.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Li’s shock treatment paid off. In March, Sea reported the first quarterly profit in its 14-year history, $427 million in GAAP-sanctioned net income. Its stock soared 22%. Last week, it said it would hand out 5% raises to most staff. Sea has now more than doubled its market value since November.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Like so many tech startups of its generation, Sea had bled red ink for years. In fact, it lost more than $8 billion since its founding to pay for growth in its e-commerce, games and finance operations. For now at least, Sea is setting a different kind of example: It’s demonstrating that if your underlying business is sound and substantial, you can pull back on subsidies and expansions to break even.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s proving a challenge for rivals. Among Sea’s regional competitors, Singapore’s Grab Holdings Ltd. is still losing more than $300 million a quarter, while Indonesia’s GoTo Group’s losses exceed $250 million. Sea may also cause trouble for global tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Amazon.com Inc., which are both seeking growth in emerging markets. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“What you’re seeing is a separation of proper, monetizable business models from something that is a work-in-progress,” said Amit Kunal, managing partner of Growtheum Capital, a private equity firm in Singapore, speaking broadly about the tech industry. “Sea read the market much earlier, took appropriate steps — and delivered.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2c31dae359154a9cb42bbc91162a3b\" alt=\"Sea Went Through a Rocky Two Years | Forrest Li has navigated numerous ups and downs since 2021\" title=\"Sea Went Through a Rocky Two Years | Forrest Li has navigated numerous ups and downs since 2021\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\"/><span>Sea Went Through a Rocky Two Years | Forrest Li has navigated numerous ups and downs since 2021</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Li had a premonition that trouble was coming. Back in November 2021, he hosted his leadership team at his Singapore home for dinner to mark his 44th birthday. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They had much to celebrate. Sea’s shares had surged to a record in October, giving the firm a valuation of more than $200 billion, aided by a pandemic-induced boom for its online gaming unit Garena and e-commerce business Shopee. At one point in 2020, Sea was the best-performing stock in the world.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But even at the dinner, Li saw ominous signs. He noticed that on Free Fire, the company’s popular multi-player mobile game with 150 million daily users, people were beginning to spend less time and money as Covid restrictions eased. The celebration turned into a debate about how the world would change after the pandemic. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Then in February 2022, India abruptly banned Free Fire, along with dozens of Chinese apps, amid rising tensions between the two countries. While Li is a Singapore citizen and based his company there, he’s originally from northeastern China and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is a major shareholder. It was a huge setback in a key growth market.</p><p>In March, when Li talked during a quarterly earnings call about plans to still pursue growth, investors dumped Sea shares. The firm lost more than 45% of its market value in five days. For Li, it was a wake-up call that things were worse than he’d thought. That’s when he wrote the somber memo to his team from his sickbed. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Li and his senior team went into crisis mode. They began huddling every month to discuss cashflow projections, along with their regular weekly meetings. They spun through 200 different versions of financial forecasts in 2022, Li said in the interview, akin to rewriting the budget every two days.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In addition to layoffs and salary freezes, Sea pulled out of Europe and most countries in Latin America.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The fallout was traumatic for some. In August, a Chinese engineer posted on his WeChat account that Shopee had rescinded his job offer — just after he landed at the Singapore airport with his wife and dog. Amid a storm of negative publicity, Shopee apologized and compensated him for his losses. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Employees resorted to taking money out of their own pockets to organize team events to boost morale, according to one employee, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly. Another described the grueling period as “cockroach times.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Li leaned on internal memos during the crisis to communicate with employees and explain what he was trying to accomplish. In an all-staff memo in September, he said top management would forgo any cash compensation until the company reached “self-sufficiency.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We can now see that this is not a quickly passing storm,” he wrote in a 1,000-word missive at the time. “With investors fleeing for ‘safe haven’ investments, we do not anticipate being able to raise funds in the market.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At one point, Sea was proud it could offer employees the fanciest tea in Singapore, perks commensurate with the tech giants of Silicon Valley, Li said in the interview. Now he wants to break that mindset: Sea has to compete on cost with the likes of Amazon, where early employees famously forged desks out of Home Depot doors because they were cheaper.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some employees in certain offices noticed that toilet paper got thinner. Sometimes it would run out because people used more.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We’re going to continually push down the costs,” he said. “It’s not just for saving but for running the business more efficiently. This is going to be the long-term mode for us.” </p><p>After Sea cut its entertainment budget so employees could no longer spring for meals with suppliers or partners, Li encouraged staff to tell them the company couldn’t afford such things any more. Sea also called most staff in Southeast Asia back to office late last year, one of the first big internet firms to do so in the region. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While Li acknowledges the road has been difficult, he said he had no doubt Sea could reach breakeven. He said the company’s path, in many ways, traces the precedents of Amazon and founder Jeff Bezos. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Seattle-based Amazon consistently lost money for its first years as a public company, with Bezos maintaining that investing in growth was more important than quarterly earnings. Similarly, Sea built Shopee by burning more than a billion dollars a year before overtaking local e-commerce pioneer Tokopedia in Indonesia and Alibaba’s Lazada in Southeast Asia. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ea06a6e910e4089961ec9a711c84d3\" alt=\"Sea Shares on Recovery Path After 90% Slide from 2021 High\" title=\"Sea Shares on Recovery Path After 90% Slide from 2021 High\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\"/><span>Sea Shares on Recovery Path After 90% Slide from 2021 High</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Li argues that Sea has a unique opportunity to bring e-commerce to emerging markets, the kinds of places where Amazon may be at a disadvantage. Success in these countries can depend on serving customers who live on remote islands, finding a payment solution where few people have credit cards or delivering parcels where there are no proper roads or postal codes. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“It’s probably hard for the Silicon Valley innovator to think about those issues specifically,” Li said. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While much of Sea’s expansion is in Asian markets like Indonesia, Li also thinks the company has an advantage in Brazil, where Shopee has had success since launching in 2019. With its 214 million population and decent per-capita income, he thinks the country is Sea’s most promising growth market. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We spent a lot of money when capital was relatively cheap and available, and it’s kind of an almost 10-year effort,” Li said of Brazil. </p><p>These days, Li says he’s splitting his time between Singapore and California to stay close to the “mind-blowing” artificial intelligence revolution that’s taking place in Silicon Valley. He believes AI will play a big role in replacing much of the repetitive work for Sea’s e-commerce, gaming and fintech businesses. Gaming, in particular, is probably ahead of online shopping in terms of how people use AI to develop and play games by making it more interactive and immersive, he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As the interview at Sea’s headquarters winds down, Li is asked whether company will be able to keep turning a profit every quarter. He cocked his head to the side and, with a laugh, said he can’t reveal too much since Sea is in a quiet period ahead of first-quarter results on May 16.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But that’s not really the point, he added. The key thing is that Sea has been able to demonstrate for employees and investors that it can reach breakeven when it has to. So now, it can calibrate growth and profit depending on strategic priorities.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The numbers show that the destiny is in our own hands,” he said. “We sleep very well now.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea’s Path to Profit Paved With Layoffs, Single-Ply Toilet Paper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea’s Path to Profit Paved With Layoffs, Single-Ply Toilet Paper\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-15 10:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-14/singapore-s-sea-banned-business-class-flights-and-luxury-teabags-to-cut-costs?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CEO of Singapore’s Sea says company is now ‘self-sufficient’Shift comes after ruthless cost-cutting drive in the past yearJust over a year ago, Forrest Li was laid up in bed with Covid, fretting about...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-14/singapore-s-sea-banned-business-class-flights-and-luxury-teabags-to-cut-costs?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-14/singapore-s-sea-banned-business-class-flights-and-luxury-teabags-to-cut-costs?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145646911","content_text":"CEO of Singapore’s Sea says company is now ‘self-sufficient’Shift comes after ruthless cost-cutting drive in the past yearJust over a year ago, Forrest Li was laid up in bed with Covid, fretting about the future of his company, Sea Ltd. So he propped himself up on a pillow to hammer out the latest in a series of memos that would change the course of his business — and perhaps the tech industry.Sea had been a stock market phenom, racing to a market capitalization of more than $200 billion despite huge losses, but the world had changed. Investors had turned against money-losing tech companies. So Sea had to change with it, Li wrote. With a burning fever and nagging cough, he told his leadership team it was time to focus on profit and exit India.That memo kicked off a sweeping overhaul of Sea over the next few months. The company laid off roughly more than 7,500 employees, or about 10% of its workforce, though Sea declined to disclose the actual numbers. It froze pay. Li and his leadership team gave up their salaries altogether.Business-class flights were banned; everyone would fly economy, no matter how far. Daily meal expenses were capped at $30, hotels at $150 a night. Snacks disappeared from offices. Sea replaced the local luxury tea brand TWG with Lipton. In at least some restrooms, two-ply toilet paper gave way to one-ply.“We cared about every single dollar, every single cent,” Li said at his office in Singapore, his first interview in more than two years. “You can have a big dream and a big ambition, but what if you cannot survive? You always have this kind of noise back in your mind saying we may be running out of money.”Li’s shock treatment paid off. In March, Sea reported the first quarterly profit in its 14-year history, $427 million in GAAP-sanctioned net income. Its stock soared 22%. Last week, it said it would hand out 5% raises to most staff. Sea has now more than doubled its market value since November.Like so many tech startups of its generation, Sea had bled red ink for years. In fact, it lost more than $8 billion since its founding to pay for growth in its e-commerce, games and finance operations. For now at least, Sea is setting a different kind of example: It’s demonstrating that if your underlying business is sound and substantial, you can pull back on subsidies and expansions to break even.That’s proving a challenge for rivals. Among Sea’s regional competitors, Singapore’s Grab Holdings Ltd. is still losing more than $300 million a quarter, while Indonesia’s GoTo Group’s losses exceed $250 million. Sea may also cause trouble for global tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Amazon.com Inc., which are both seeking growth in emerging markets. “What you’re seeing is a separation of proper, monetizable business models from something that is a work-in-progress,” said Amit Kunal, managing partner of Growtheum Capital, a private equity firm in Singapore, speaking broadly about the tech industry. “Sea read the market much earlier, took appropriate steps — and delivered.”Sea Went Through a Rocky Two Years | Forrest Li has navigated numerous ups and downs since 2021Li had a premonition that trouble was coming. Back in November 2021, he hosted his leadership team at his Singapore home for dinner to mark his 44th birthday. They had much to celebrate. Sea’s shares had surged to a record in October, giving the firm a valuation of more than $200 billion, aided by a pandemic-induced boom for its online gaming unit Garena and e-commerce business Shopee. At one point in 2020, Sea was the best-performing stock in the world.But even at the dinner, Li saw ominous signs. He noticed that on Free Fire, the company’s popular multi-player mobile game with 150 million daily users, people were beginning to spend less time and money as Covid restrictions eased. The celebration turned into a debate about how the world would change after the pandemic. Then in February 2022, India abruptly banned Free Fire, along with dozens of Chinese apps, amid rising tensions between the two countries. While Li is a Singapore citizen and based his company there, he’s originally from northeastern China and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is a major shareholder. It was a huge setback in a key growth market.In March, when Li talked during a quarterly earnings call about plans to still pursue growth, investors dumped Sea shares. The firm lost more than 45% of its market value in five days. For Li, it was a wake-up call that things were worse than he’d thought. That’s when he wrote the somber memo to his team from his sickbed. Li and his senior team went into crisis mode. They began huddling every month to discuss cashflow projections, along with their regular weekly meetings. They spun through 200 different versions of financial forecasts in 2022, Li said in the interview, akin to rewriting the budget every two days.In addition to layoffs and salary freezes, Sea pulled out of Europe and most countries in Latin America.The fallout was traumatic for some. In August, a Chinese engineer posted on his WeChat account that Shopee had rescinded his job offer — just after he landed at the Singapore airport with his wife and dog. Amid a storm of negative publicity, Shopee apologized and compensated him for his losses. Employees resorted to taking money out of their own pockets to organize team events to boost morale, according to one employee, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly. Another described the grueling period as “cockroach times.” Li leaned on internal memos during the crisis to communicate with employees and explain what he was trying to accomplish. In an all-staff memo in September, he said top management would forgo any cash compensation until the company reached “self-sufficiency.” “We can now see that this is not a quickly passing storm,” he wrote in a 1,000-word missive at the time. “With investors fleeing for ‘safe haven’ investments, we do not anticipate being able to raise funds in the market.” At one point, Sea was proud it could offer employees the fanciest tea in Singapore, perks commensurate with the tech giants of Silicon Valley, Li said in the interview. Now he wants to break that mindset: Sea has to compete on cost with the likes of Amazon, where early employees famously forged desks out of Home Depot doors because they were cheaper.Some employees in certain offices noticed that toilet paper got thinner. Sometimes it would run out because people used more.“We’re going to continually push down the costs,” he said. “It’s not just for saving but for running the business more efficiently. This is going to be the long-term mode for us.” After Sea cut its entertainment budget so employees could no longer spring for meals with suppliers or partners, Li encouraged staff to tell them the company couldn’t afford such things any more. Sea also called most staff in Southeast Asia back to office late last year, one of the first big internet firms to do so in the region. While Li acknowledges the road has been difficult, he said he had no doubt Sea could reach breakeven. He said the company’s path, in many ways, traces the precedents of Amazon and founder Jeff Bezos. Seattle-based Amazon consistently lost money for its first years as a public company, with Bezos maintaining that investing in growth was more important than quarterly earnings. Similarly, Sea built Shopee by burning more than a billion dollars a year before overtaking local e-commerce pioneer Tokopedia in Indonesia and Alibaba’s Lazada in Southeast Asia. Sea Shares on Recovery Path After 90% Slide from 2021 HighLi argues that Sea has a unique opportunity to bring e-commerce to emerging markets, the kinds of places where Amazon may be at a disadvantage. Success in these countries can depend on serving customers who live on remote islands, finding a payment solution where few people have credit cards or delivering parcels where there are no proper roads or postal codes. “It’s probably hard for the Silicon Valley innovator to think about those issues specifically,” Li said. While much of Sea’s expansion is in Asian markets like Indonesia, Li also thinks the company has an advantage in Brazil, where Shopee has had success since launching in 2019. With its 214 million population and decent per-capita income, he thinks the country is Sea’s most promising growth market. “We spent a lot of money when capital was relatively cheap and available, and it’s kind of an almost 10-year effort,” Li said of Brazil. These days, Li says he’s splitting his time between Singapore and California to stay close to the “mind-blowing” artificial intelligence revolution that’s taking place in Silicon Valley. He believes AI will play a big role in replacing much of the repetitive work for Sea’s e-commerce, gaming and fintech businesses. Gaming, in particular, is probably ahead of online shopping in terms of how people use AI to develop and play games by making it more interactive and immersive, he said.As the interview at Sea’s headquarters winds down, Li is asked whether company will be able to keep turning a profit every quarter. He cocked his head to the side and, with a laugh, said he can’t reveal too much since Sea is in a quiet period ahead of first-quarter results on May 16.But that’s not really the point, he added. The key thing is that Sea has been able to demonstrate for employees and investors that it can reach breakeven when it has to. So now, it can calibrate growth and profit depending on strategic priorities.“The numbers show that the destiny is in our own hands,” he said. “We sleep very well now.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946621846,"gmtCreate":1680948276285,"gmtModify":1680948279949,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes! 💪","listText":"Yes! 💪","text":"Yes! 💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946621846","repostId":"2325259359","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2325259359","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680998829,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2325259359?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-09 08:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2325259359","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The rally has already started. But there is still some electricity left to spark more gains.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The 2022 bear market has created a great opportunity for investors to scoop up top stocks at a discount, and <strong>Tesla</strong> is not an exception. While shares in the legendary electric automaker have risen substantially in 2023, they are still down 49% over the last 12 months. Let&#39;s explore why the bull run might just be getting started.</p><h2>What went wrong for Tesla?</h2><p>While no single factor can explain Tesla&#39;s substantial decline last year, some things stand out. For starters, many investors were unnerved by Elon Musk, whose acquisition of social media company <strong>Twitter</strong> led him to unload Tesla shares and possibly get distracted from his role as its CEO. Market participants also began to fear that rising competition in the EV industry would crush Tesla&#39;s growth and margins.</p><p>The good news is that both of these concerns look overblown. Five months into Musk&#39;s Twitter acquisition, Tesla has shown no signs of losing its strategic vision. No longer a fragile growth company, it is also less dependent on the guidance of a single individual and has had plenty of time to build a talented management structure aside from Musk. The company also isn&#39;t letting competition hold it back. </p><h2>Flexing scale and pricing power </h2><p>While competition is heating up in the EV industry (leading Tesla to slash its car prices by around 20% globally), this is an opportunity for the automaker to lean into its natural advantages in scale and high margins to outcompete its rivals. So far, so good. First-quarter deliveries surged 36% year over year to 422,875 cars, which is ahead of expectations. And while some analysts expect the lower prices to hurt margins, this is a small price to pay to capture market share and possibly drive unprofitable rivals out of the industry. </p><p>Further, Tesla believes it can reduce production costs on its next-generation vehicles by half, which would help offset the price cuts over the long term and help the company maintain its profitability. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73852f3db76edf7785523fab67365c08\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><p>Tesla is already very profitable compared to its pure-play EV rivals. In 2022, the company generated an operating profit of $13.7 billion (a margin of 17%), while rivals <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid</strong> generated operating losses of $6.9 billion and $2.6 billion in the same period.</p><p>It&#39;s hard to see how these companies can keep up with Tesla&#39;s pricing power because they lack its economies of scale and manufacturing innovations. Musk warns that both rivals are &#34;tracking toward bankruptcy&#34; unless they make dramatic efforts to cut costs.</p><h2>No more crazy overvaluation </h2><p>Tesla stock has come a long way from its overvalued past in 2020 and 2021 when it boasted a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as high as 1,120 and a market capitalization larger than the next five biggest car companies combined. And while the company&#39;s current forward P/E of 50 is double the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index&#39;s average of 26, the premium looks justified by its healthy growth rate and sustainable competitive advantages.</p><p>Investors still have a chance to buy the dip on shares of this electric vehicle leader.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-09 08:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/07/bull-market-is-coming-3-reasons-to-buy-tesla-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The 2022 bear market has created a great opportunity for investors to scoop up top stocks at a discount, and Tesla is not an exception. While shares in the legendary electric automaker have risen ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/07/bull-market-is-coming-3-reasons-to-buy-tesla-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/07/bull-market-is-coming-3-reasons-to-buy-tesla-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2325259359","content_text":"The 2022 bear market has created a great opportunity for investors to scoop up top stocks at a discount, and Tesla is not an exception. While shares in the legendary electric automaker have risen substantially in 2023, they are still down 49% over the last 12 months. Let's explore why the bull run might just be getting started.What went wrong for Tesla?While no single factor can explain Tesla's substantial decline last year, some things stand out. For starters, many investors were unnerved by Elon Musk, whose acquisition of social media company Twitter led him to unload Tesla shares and possibly get distracted from his role as its CEO. Market participants also began to fear that rising competition in the EV industry would crush Tesla's growth and margins.The good news is that both of these concerns look overblown. Five months into Musk's Twitter acquisition, Tesla has shown no signs of losing its strategic vision. No longer a fragile growth company, it is also less dependent on the guidance of a single individual and has had plenty of time to build a talented management structure aside from Musk. The company also isn't letting competition hold it back. Flexing scale and pricing power While competition is heating up in the EV industry (leading Tesla to slash its car prices by around 20% globally), this is an opportunity for the automaker to lean into its natural advantages in scale and high margins to outcompete its rivals. So far, so good. First-quarter deliveries surged 36% year over year to 422,875 cars, which is ahead of expectations. And while some analysts expect the lower prices to hurt margins, this is a small price to pay to capture market share and possibly drive unprofitable rivals out of the industry. Further, Tesla believes it can reduce production costs on its next-generation vehicles by half, which would help offset the price cuts over the long term and help the company maintain its profitability. Image source: Getty Images.Tesla is already very profitable compared to its pure-play EV rivals. In 2022, the company generated an operating profit of $13.7 billion (a margin of 17%), while rivals Rivian and Lucid generated operating losses of $6.9 billion and $2.6 billion in the same period.It's hard to see how these companies can keep up with Tesla's pricing power because they lack its economies of scale and manufacturing innovations. Musk warns that both rivals are \"tracking toward bankruptcy\" unless they make dramatic efforts to cut costs.No more crazy overvaluation Tesla stock has come a long way from its overvalued past in 2020 and 2021 when it boasted a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as high as 1,120 and a market capitalization larger than the next five biggest car companies combined. And while the company's current forward P/E of 50 is double the Nasdaq-100 index's average of 26, the premium looks justified by its healthy growth rate and sustainable competitive advantages.Investors still have a chance to buy the dip on shares of this electric vehicle leader.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941228916,"gmtCreate":1680300967635,"gmtModify":1680300971264,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great opportunities&nbsp;in a decade !","listText":"Great opportunities&nbsp;in a decade !","text":"Great opportunities in a decade !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941228916","repostId":"2323795936","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2323795936","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680276181,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323795936?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-31 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323795936","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Your strategy can make or break your portfolio right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The past year has been rough for most people, and it&#39;s easy to feel pessimistic about the future. A whopping 83% of U.S. adults say they&#39;re feeling stressed about inflation, according to a 2022 survey from the American Psychological Association. And with many people worried about an impending recession, it&#39;s possible things could get worse before they get better.</p><p>However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. A bull market is on the way, and legendary investor Warren Buffett can offer some smart advice about how to handle your investments right now.</p><h2>1. Don&#39;t get hung up on short-term market movements</h2><p>When the market is rocky, it&#39;s easy to focus on all the short-term ups and downs. But what really matters is the long-term performance.</p><p>Timing the market effectively is next to impossible, so nobody can say for certain when this bear market will end and the next bull market will begin. But we do know that no downturn lasts forever, so it&#39;s only a matter of time before the market rebounds.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45dff17d25ce3b607f4e3341c07e5654\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p>^SPX data by YCharts.</p><p>In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Warren Buffett wrote an opinion piece for <em>The New York Times</em>. He wrote:</p><blockquote>I can&#39;t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven&#39;t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s not easy watching your portfolio drop in value. But in times like these, it&#39;s more important than ever to keep a long-term outlook. The market will recover eventually, and the best thing you can do right now is ride out the storm.</p><h2>2. Keep investing during the slumps</h2><p>Stock market downturns may not seem like the best time to invest, but they can actually be a fantastic buying opportunity. When the market is in a slump, stock prices are lower -- sometimes substantially so.</p><p>Many stocks have watched their prices drop by 50% or more over the past year, which means now is your chance to load up on quality investments at a steep discount. Then when the market recovers, you could see lucrative earnings.</p><p>This strategy is one of the most effective ways to build wealth in the stock market and is also a Buffett-approved approach. As he wrote in the <em>Times</em> article.</p><blockquote>A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation&#39;s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.</blockquote><h2>3. Focus on quality companies</h2><p>Keeping a long-term outlook and investing during the market&#39;s low points are two important steps to building wealth, but the third part of the equation is arguably the most important: Invest in the right stocks.</p><p>The investments you choose will make or break your portfolio. Shaky stocks will have a tougher time recovering from market downturns, and there&#39;s a greater risk you&#39;ll lose money. But strong stocks from healthy companies are far more likely to rebound.</p><p>In <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>&#39;s 2021 letter to shareholders, Buffett emphasized that he and business partner Charlie Munger focus heavily on investing in quality companies. &#34;[W]e own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term <em>business</em> performance and <em>not</em> because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves,&#34; he writes. &#34;That point is crucial: Charlie and I are <em>not</em> stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.&#34;</p><p>Right now is not an easy time to be an investor, but that doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s a bad time to invest. By choosing quality investments, continuing to invest during the market&#39;s slumps, and holding those stocks for the long term, you can not only survive this downturn but generate wealth that lasts a lifetime.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-31 23:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/bull-market-coming-warren-buffett-investing-advice/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past year has been rough for most people, and it's easy to feel pessimistic about the future. A whopping 83% of U.S. adults say they're feeling stressed about inflation, according to a 2022 survey...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/bull-market-coming-warren-buffett-investing-advice/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/bull-market-coming-warren-buffett-investing-advice/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323795936","content_text":"The past year has been rough for most people, and it's easy to feel pessimistic about the future. A whopping 83% of U.S. adults say they're feeling stressed about inflation, according to a 2022 survey from the American Psychological Association. And with many people worried about an impending recession, it's possible things could get worse before they get better.However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. A bull market is on the way, and legendary investor Warren Buffett can offer some smart advice about how to handle your investments right now.1. Don't get hung up on short-term market movementsWhen the market is rocky, it's easy to focus on all the short-term ups and downs. But what really matters is the long-term performance.Timing the market effectively is next to impossible, so nobody can say for certain when this bear market will end and the next bull market will begin. But we do know that no downturn lasts forever, so it's only a matter of time before the market rebounds.^SPX data by YCharts.In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Warren Buffett wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times. He wrote:I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.It's not easy watching your portfolio drop in value. But in times like these, it's more important than ever to keep a long-term outlook. The market will recover eventually, and the best thing you can do right now is ride out the storm.2. Keep investing during the slumpsStock market downturns may not seem like the best time to invest, but they can actually be a fantastic buying opportunity. When the market is in a slump, stock prices are lower -- sometimes substantially so.Many stocks have watched their prices drop by 50% or more over the past year, which means now is your chance to load up on quality investments at a steep discount. Then when the market recovers, you could see lucrative earnings.This strategy is one of the most effective ways to build wealth in the stock market and is also a Buffett-approved approach. As he wrote in the Times article.A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.3. Focus on quality companiesKeeping a long-term outlook and investing during the market's low points are two important steps to building wealth, but the third part of the equation is arguably the most important: Invest in the right stocks.The investments you choose will make or break your portfolio. Shaky stocks will have a tougher time recovering from market downturns, and there's a greater risk you'll lose money. But strong stocks from healthy companies are far more likely to rebound.In Berkshire Hathaway's 2021 letter to shareholders, Buffett emphasized that he and business partner Charlie Munger focus heavily on investing in quality companies. \"[W]e own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves,\" he writes. \"That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.\"Right now is not an easy time to be an investor, but that doesn't mean it's a bad time to invest. By choosing quality investments, continuing to invest during the market's slumps, and holding those stocks for the long term, you can not only survive this downturn but generate wealth that lasts a lifetime.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941612591,"gmtCreate":1680188216914,"gmtModify":1680188221291,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Target $280 👍 it's great value n growth&nbsp;","listText":"Target $280 👍 it's great value n growth&nbsp;","text":"Target $280 👍 it's great value n growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941612591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943136341,"gmtCreate":1679264975084,"gmtModify":1679264978529,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943136341","repostId":"2320959642","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2320959642","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1679190744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320959642?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320959642","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hikeBrazil and Turkey will probably hold rates thi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hike</li><li>Brazil and Turkey will probably hold rates this week</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce3ee6825cfe7c9048ec5d9569ab627\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p>Federal Reserve officials face their biggest challenge in months as they weigh whether to keep raising interest rates this week to cool inflation, or take a pause amid the market turmoil fueled by recent bank failures.</p><p>Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting fallout, Fed policy makers were poised to raise rates by as much as 50 basis points after a string of data suggested the economy was much stronger than officials thought at the beginning of the year.</p><p>Now, given the financial market volatility, many Fed watchers expect a smaller, quarter-point increase, and some say the US central bank will pause altogether after a two-day meeting that starts on Tuesday.</p><p>The decision follows a 50-basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde said the ECB remains committed to fighting inflation, while monitoring bank tensions closely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada28712e5122d8a9078a50d9eb73410\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also highly anticipated from the Fed meeting with be an update to the Summary of Economic Projections — a quarterly report laying out participants’ forecasts for everything from inflation to interest rates — and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.</p><p>Amid the banking sector turmoil, Powell will likely face questions around the central bank’s supervision of SVB and other struggling entities.</p><p>He’ll also need to tread carefully when talking about the likely future path of interest rates. Before the banking issues emerged, Fed officials had indicated that rates would need to move above 5% this year and remain there until inflation was on pace to fall back to their 2% target.</p><p>Yet heightened uncertainty over to what extent bank capitalization issues — exacerbated by the Fed’s rapid interest rate increases and the impact on Treasury yields — will impact the broader economy may limit Powell’s ability to tighten much more going forward.</p><blockquote><b>What Bloomberg Economics Says...</b></blockquote><blockquote>“The FOMC faces its most challenging policy decision in recent memory on March 22. Market expectations have shifted sharply — from a 50-basis-point hike to a pause — as fears of bank contagion displace inflation concerns. We expect the Fed to hike 25 basis points, taking the upper bound from 4.75% to 5%. Reaccelerating inflation maintains pressure to keep hiking.”</blockquote><blockquote>— Anna Wong, chief US economist. For full analysis</blockquote><p>Elsewhere, 12 other central banks set policy in the coming week. Economists predict rate hikes in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria and the Philippines, while Brazil and Turkey will probably hold. Meanwhile, traders betting on the Bank of Canada’s rate path will get a fresh inflation reading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79cc947dfbf75d14dfbb8d227ff61642\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2>Asia</h2><p>On Monday, the People’s Bank of China will likely report that banks left their loan prime rates unchanged as the economy gradually recovers.</p><p>In Tokyo, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s meeting earlier this month will shed more light on the rationale for keeping monetary policy steady ahead of Kazuo Ueda’s arrival at the helm in April.</p><p>Reserve Bank of Australia official Chris Kent on Monday may offer an up-to-date take on the policy stance and any concerns over financial market contagion. Those remarks will likely prove more timely than minutes due Tuesday from the RBA’s March meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fae5e782108c30c09e42d5192614e25\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Early trade numbers from South Korea will offer a pulse check on global conditions.</p><p>Japan’s inflation figures on Friday are set to mirror earlier data that pointed to a cooling of prices, helped largely by newly subsidized electricity bills.</p><p>Hong Kong and Taiwan central banks will announce their interest rates on Thursday.</p><h2>Europe, Middle East, Africa</h2><p>The Fed may be the dominant central-bank decision this week, but several others will also draw investors’ attention.</p><p>The Bank of England takes center stage in Europe. Officials await the latest UK inflation reading on Wednesday, possibly showing price growth is still close to double digits. Most economists predict rates will be raised by a quarter-point the next day, though with financial tensions still simmering, a minority sees no change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b127e6c21b263dfe8d35439c08f586ff\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Here’s a quick rundown of the other decisions due:</p><ul><li>The Swiss National Bank meeting on Thursday is a quarterly one and there’s catch-up to do, so a hike of as much as 50 basis points is widely anticipated. Overshadowing the outcome is Credit Suisse Group AG, the stricken bank offered a lifeline to help contain global turmoil.</li><li>The same day in Norway, where officials are forecast to raise rates by another quarter point to extend the monetary tightening cycle in the oil-rich economy.</li><li>An Icelandic decision is due on Wednesday, with another big rate hike possible.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fb0b6e2340d3e360b087ec08e80c67\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking south, central banks will be very active too. Here’s a quick summary:</p><ul><li>Nigeria may raise rates on Tuesday to contain inflation that’s near an 18-year high, and to encourage investment.</li><li>In Angola the same day, officials may cut benchmark borrowing costs for a second time this year as the kwanza remains stable, commodity prices are seen moderating, and a downward swing in price growth looks likely to continue.</li><li>In Morocco that day, the central bank will most likely pause monetary tightening as food prices start to ease.</li><li>And in Turkey on Thursday, officials are expected to hold rates steady. Any signs of future policy will be key as the country heads toward elections in May, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the strongest challenge yet to his two decades in power.</li></ul><p>After the ECB’s meeting on Thursday, which ended with a half-pint hike but no future guidance, more than a dozen of its policy makers will speak in the coming days. President Lagarde is likely to draw the most attention with testimony to the European Parliament on Monday.</p><p>Further clues on the backdrop for the banking system may be available when her ECB colleague Andrea Enria, the euro region’s top regulator, talks to the same panel of lawmakers the following day.</p><p>Lagarde is also among officials who’ll take the stage at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday, and several others are scheduled to make appearances elsewhere during the week.</p><p>Meanwhile, purchasing managers’ indexes in the euro zone and UK will give an indication of the strength of industry as China reopens, and the German Council of Economic Experts will publish an updated growth outlook.</p><h2>Latin America</h2><p>A busy week in Brazil begins with the central bank’s survey of market expectations on inflation, which continue to edge further above target through 2025.</p><p>Banco Central do Brasil is all but certain to hold its key rate at 13.75% for a fifth straight meeting, though policy makers may strike a dovish tone in the post-decision statement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb439ff09b87c93bdf371ccf16b18b47\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"950\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After minimal disinflation over the past three mid-month consumer price readings, analysts see steeper deceleration for the mid-February print and into the second quarter due to base-effects, before a second-half uptick.</p><p>Chile’s fourth-quarter output report may show that the Andean country narrowly avoided falling into a technical recession, due in part to untapped household liquidity and the impact of China’s reopening.</p><p>In Argentina, four straight negative readings on its monthly economic activity indicator point to a quarterly contraction in output heading into a challenging 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f39a7f6e29e3952614e9b3a783a419d\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In Mexico, the weakness seen in retail sales since May likely extended into January, while slumping demand from the US, the country’s biggest export market, can be expected to weigh on January GDP-proxy data.</p><p>The early consensus has mid-month inflation coming in near a one-year low — though still more than twice the 3% target — while the somewhat more sticky core reading extends a drop from November’s two-decade high of 8.66%, in line with Banxico forecasts.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Consider a Pause as Fallout From SVB Roils Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-19 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-18/federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-fed-pause-likely-on-svb-fallout?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hikeBrazil and Turkey will probably hold rates this weekJerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.Source: BloombergFederal Reserve officials ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-18/federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-fed-pause-likely-on-svb-fallout?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-18/federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-fed-pause-likely-on-svb-fallout?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320959642","content_text":"UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria, Philippines may hikeBrazil and Turkey will probably hold rates this weekJerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.Source: BloombergFederal Reserve officials face their biggest challenge in months as they weigh whether to keep raising interest rates this week to cool inflation, or take a pause amid the market turmoil fueled by recent bank failures.Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting fallout, Fed policy makers were poised to raise rates by as much as 50 basis points after a string of data suggested the economy was much stronger than officials thought at the beginning of the year.Now, given the financial market volatility, many Fed watchers expect a smaller, quarter-point increase, and some say the US central bank will pause altogether after a two-day meeting that starts on Tuesday.The decision follows a 50-basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde said the ECB remains committed to fighting inflation, while monitoring bank tensions closely.Also highly anticipated from the Fed meeting with be an update to the Summary of Economic Projections — a quarterly report laying out participants’ forecasts for everything from inflation to interest rates — and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.Amid the banking sector turmoil, Powell will likely face questions around the central bank’s supervision of SVB and other struggling entities.He’ll also need to tread carefully when talking about the likely future path of interest rates. Before the banking issues emerged, Fed officials had indicated that rates would need to move above 5% this year and remain there until inflation was on pace to fall back to their 2% target.Yet heightened uncertainty over to what extent bank capitalization issues — exacerbated by the Fed’s rapid interest rate increases and the impact on Treasury yields — will impact the broader economy may limit Powell’s ability to tighten much more going forward.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“The FOMC faces its most challenging policy decision in recent memory on March 22. Market expectations have shifted sharply — from a 50-basis-point hike to a pause — as fears of bank contagion displace inflation concerns. We expect the Fed to hike 25 basis points, taking the upper bound from 4.75% to 5%. Reaccelerating inflation maintains pressure to keep hiking.”— Anna Wong, chief US economist. For full analysisElsewhere, 12 other central banks set policy in the coming week. Economists predict rate hikes in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Nigeria and the Philippines, while Brazil and Turkey will probably hold. Meanwhile, traders betting on the Bank of Canada’s rate path will get a fresh inflation reading.AsiaOn Monday, the People’s Bank of China will likely report that banks left their loan prime rates unchanged as the economy gradually recovers.In Tokyo, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s meeting earlier this month will shed more light on the rationale for keeping monetary policy steady ahead of Kazuo Ueda’s arrival at the helm in April.Reserve Bank of Australia official Chris Kent on Monday may offer an up-to-date take on the policy stance and any concerns over financial market contagion. Those remarks will likely prove more timely than minutes due Tuesday from the RBA’s March meeting.Early trade numbers from South Korea will offer a pulse check on global conditions.Japan’s inflation figures on Friday are set to mirror earlier data that pointed to a cooling of prices, helped largely by newly subsidized electricity bills.Hong Kong and Taiwan central banks will announce their interest rates on Thursday.Europe, Middle East, AfricaThe Fed may be the dominant central-bank decision this week, but several others will also draw investors’ attention.The Bank of England takes center stage in Europe. Officials await the latest UK inflation reading on Wednesday, possibly showing price growth is still close to double digits. Most economists predict rates will be raised by a quarter-point the next day, though with financial tensions still simmering, a minority sees no change.Here’s a quick rundown of the other decisions due:The Swiss National Bank meeting on Thursday is a quarterly one and there’s catch-up to do, so a hike of as much as 50 basis points is widely anticipated. Overshadowing the outcome is Credit Suisse Group AG, the stricken bank offered a lifeline to help contain global turmoil.The same day in Norway, where officials are forecast to raise rates by another quarter point to extend the monetary tightening cycle in the oil-rich economy.An Icelandic decision is due on Wednesday, with another big rate hike possible.Looking south, central banks will be very active too. Here’s a quick summary:Nigeria may raise rates on Tuesday to contain inflation that’s near an 18-year high, and to encourage investment.In Angola the same day, officials may cut benchmark borrowing costs for a second time this year as the kwanza remains stable, commodity prices are seen moderating, and a downward swing in price growth looks likely to continue.In Morocco that day, the central bank will most likely pause monetary tightening as food prices start to ease.And in Turkey on Thursday, officials are expected to hold rates steady. Any signs of future policy will be key as the country heads toward elections in May, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the strongest challenge yet to his two decades in power.After the ECB’s meeting on Thursday, which ended with a half-pint hike but no future guidance, more than a dozen of its policy makers will speak in the coming days. President Lagarde is likely to draw the most attention with testimony to the European Parliament on Monday.Further clues on the backdrop for the banking system may be available when her ECB colleague Andrea Enria, the euro region’s top regulator, talks to the same panel of lawmakers the following day.Lagarde is also among officials who’ll take the stage at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday, and several others are scheduled to make appearances elsewhere during the week.Meanwhile, purchasing managers’ indexes in the euro zone and UK will give an indication of the strength of industry as China reopens, and the German Council of Economic Experts will publish an updated growth outlook.Latin AmericaA busy week in Brazil begins with the central bank’s survey of market expectations on inflation, which continue to edge further above target through 2025.Banco Central do Brasil is all but certain to hold its key rate at 13.75% for a fifth straight meeting, though policy makers may strike a dovish tone in the post-decision statement.After minimal disinflation over the past three mid-month consumer price readings, analysts see steeper deceleration for the mid-February print and into the second quarter due to base-effects, before a second-half uptick.Chile’s fourth-quarter output report may show that the Andean country narrowly avoided falling into a technical recession, due in part to untapped household liquidity and the impact of China’s reopening.In Argentina, four straight negative readings on its monthly economic activity indicator point to a quarterly contraction in output heading into a challenging 2023.In Mexico, the weakness seen in retail sales since May likely extended into January, while slumping demand from the US, the country’s biggest export market, can be expected to weigh on January GDP-proxy data.The early consensus has mid-month inflation coming in near a one-year low — though still more than twice the 3% target — while the somewhat more sticky core reading extends a drop from November’s two-decade high of 8.66%, in line with Banxico forecasts.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949843277,"gmtCreate":1678522518999,"gmtModify":1678522523000,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go for options in <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XLE\">$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Go for options in <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XLE\">$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"Go for options in $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949843277","repostId":"2317441881","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2317441881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678232145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317441881?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 07:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hawkish Fed talk, disappointing Chinese imports weigh on crude oil","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317441881","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Oil and gas equities fell alongside crude oil futures Tuesday following weaker than expected Chinese","content":"<html><body> <p>Oil and gas equities fell alongside crude oil futures Tuesday following weaker than expected Chinese import data and hawkish testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that raised the potential for further interest rate hikes.</p> <p>Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for April delivery closed <span>-3.6%</span> to $77.58/bbl and May Brent crude (CO1:COM) settled <span>-3.3%</span> to $83.29/bbl, the largest drop in two months for both benchmarks.</p> <p>ETFs: (XLE), (<span>NYSEARCA:USO</span>), (<span>NYSEARCA:BNO</span>), (UCO), (SCO), (DBL), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU)</p> <p>\"If the Fed decides that we're going to strangle inflation until it cries uncle, and by so doing jack up interest rates to the point where there is pain across the economy, that's not good for GDP,\" CFRA Research's Stewart Glickman said, adding oil demand is correlated with GDP, \"so that would be bad for oil prices.\"</p> <p>Meanwhile, China's imports fell 10.2% during the first two months of the year, compared with a 7.5% drop in December and a consensus 5.1% decline expected by economists.</p> <p>The data also showed China's oil imports fell 1.3% Y/Y to the equivalent of 10.44M bbl/day in January and February, while fuel exports rose 74% and imports climbed only 14%.</p> <p>Tuesday's decline was crude oil's first after five straight gains, rising ~4% last week.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Fed talk, disappointing Chinese imports weigh on crude oil</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Fed talk, disappointing Chinese imports weigh on crude oil\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-08 07:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3945144-hawkish-fed-talk-disappointing-chinese-imports-weigh-on-crude-oil><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil and gas equities fell alongside crude oil futures Tuesday following weaker than expected Chinese import data and hawkish testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that raised the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3945144-hawkish-fed-talk-disappointing-chinese-imports-weigh-on-crude-oil\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1213764535/image_1213764535.jpg","relate_stocks":{"USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DBL":"Doubleline Opportunistic Credit","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4588":"碎股","NRGU":"MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3x Leveraged ETN","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares","USOI":"X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4563":"昨日强势股","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3945144-hawkish-fed-talk-disappointing-chinese-imports-weigh-on-crude-oil","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2317441881","content_text":"Oil and gas equities fell alongside crude oil futures Tuesday following weaker than expected Chinese import data and hawkish testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that raised the potential for further interest rate hikes. Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for April delivery closed -3.6% to $77.58/bbl and May Brent crude (CO1:COM) settled -3.3% to $83.29/bbl, the largest drop in two months for both benchmarks. ETFs: (XLE), (NYSEARCA:USO), (NYSEARCA:BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (DBL), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU) \"If the Fed decides that we're going to strangle inflation until it cries uncle, and by so doing jack up interest rates to the point where there is pain across the economy, that's not good for GDP,\" CFRA Research's Stewart Glickman said, adding oil demand is correlated with GDP, \"so that would be bad for oil prices.\" Meanwhile, China's imports fell 10.2% during the first two months of the year, compared with a 7.5% drop in December and a consensus 5.1% decline expected by economists. The data also showed China's oil imports fell 1.3% Y/Y to the equivalent of 10.44M bbl/day in January and February, while fuel exports rose 74% and imports climbed only 14%. Tuesday's decline was crude oil's first after five straight gains, rising ~4% last week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949814424,"gmtCreate":1678481879969,"gmtModify":1678481882235,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949814424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949815877,"gmtCreate":1678479632400,"gmtModify":1678479636322,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949815877","repostId":"2318992962","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2318992962","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678455864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2318992962?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons to Buy Amazon Stock Before It's Too Late","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2318992962","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Stocks may be on the cusp of a recovery. Make sure you don't miss out.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The 2022 bear market was brutal. The <b>Nasdaq Composite Index </b>ended last year down by about 33%. However, it has been recovering nicely in 2023: For the last 12 months, it&#39;s now down just 9.6%. <b>Amazon</b>, though, underperformed the index across both of those periods, and even after a modest bounce so far in 2023, its stock is down a whopping 32% over the past 12 months. </p><p>While it is difficult to time the market, falling inflation and resilient economic data could represent the light at the end of the tunnel. Let&#39;s discuss two reasons Amazon could be a great way to bet on a looming new bull market. </p><h2>The core businesses</h2><p>Amazon&#39;s fourth-quarter results were lackluster. While revenue grew by 9% year over year to $149.2 billion, net income fell from $14.3 billion to just $278 million -- and this was far from a one-off problem. The tech giant lost money in two out of the four quarters of 2022 because of ongoing challenges in its core e-commerce and cloud computing businesses. </p><p>While Amazon&#39;s e-commerce revenue continues to grow, margins are deteriorating because of skyrocketing fulfillment and delivery costs. Much of this has to do with inflation and pandemic-era overexpansion. The company has also seen an erosion in its cloud computing segment as enterprise clients look to trim costs in this period of economic uncertainty. The good news is that both of these challenges look temporary. </p><p>Inflation is already falling as the Federal Reserve&#39;s rate hikes impact the economy, and fuel costs have dropped. Further, CEO Andy Jassy believes that the cost-optimization in the cloud industry will only last for the &#34;next couple of quarters&#34; -- likely because Amazon Web Services helps companies handle the data they need to grow. While Amazon&#39;s core businesses wait to rebound, investors should pay close attention to its new growth drivers. </p><h2>Healthcare and digital advertising?</h2><p>Amazon&#39;s scale and network effects helped it dominate e-commerce and cloud computing. And these strengths can also provide it with advantages as it pursues new opportunities in areas like healthcare and digital advertising. </p><p>In the fourth quarter, its ad business grew 19% to $11.6 billion. With its shopping-motivated user base of more than 300 million active accounts, Amazon has plenty of data to use for targeting ads, which could allow it to charge higher rates for ad placements. </p><p>The company is also betting on healthcare through One Medical, which it acquired for $3.9 billion in February. Amazon already has a toehold in the healthcare industry through its Amazon Care brand. This latest deal is likely designed to expand its prescription-delivery service and primary care network. </p><p>While it is too early to know for sure, healthcare could eventually become another driver of growth and diversification for the company. </p><h2>A great way to bet on a rebound</h2><p>It is impossible to know exactly when Wall Street will enter another sustained bull market. But if history is anything to go by, what went down will eventually rise up. Companies like Amazon face significant challenges. But their substantial share-price declines in 2022 have priced in some of those risks. </p><p>Investors can look forward to a recovery in Amazon&#39;s e-commerce and cloud computing businesses while digital advertising and healthcare potentially power its next leg of growth. The company looks like a great way to bet on a stock market rebound. </p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons to Buy Amazon Stock Before It's Too Late</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons to Buy Amazon Stock Before It's Too Late\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-10 21:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/09/a-bull-market-is-coming-2-reasons-to-buy-amazon-st/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The 2022 bear market was brutal. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended last year down by about 33%. However, it has been recovering nicely in 2023: For the last 12 months, it's now down just 9.6%. Amazon, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/09/a-bull-market-is-coming-2-reasons-to-buy-amazon-st/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/09/a-bull-market-is-coming-2-reasons-to-buy-amazon-st/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318992962","content_text":"The 2022 bear market was brutal. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended last year down by about 33%. However, it has been recovering nicely in 2023: For the last 12 months, it's now down just 9.6%. Amazon, though, underperformed the index across both of those periods, and even after a modest bounce so far in 2023, its stock is down a whopping 32% over the past 12 months. While it is difficult to time the market, falling inflation and resilient economic data could represent the light at the end of the tunnel. Let's discuss two reasons Amazon could be a great way to bet on a looming new bull market. The core businessesAmazon's fourth-quarter results were lackluster. While revenue grew by 9% year over year to $149.2 billion, net income fell from $14.3 billion to just $278 million -- and this was far from a one-off problem. The tech giant lost money in two out of the four quarters of 2022 because of ongoing challenges in its core e-commerce and cloud computing businesses. While Amazon's e-commerce revenue continues to grow, margins are deteriorating because of skyrocketing fulfillment and delivery costs. Much of this has to do with inflation and pandemic-era overexpansion. The company has also seen an erosion in its cloud computing segment as enterprise clients look to trim costs in this period of economic uncertainty. The good news is that both of these challenges look temporary. Inflation is already falling as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes impact the economy, and fuel costs have dropped. Further, CEO Andy Jassy believes that the cost-optimization in the cloud industry will only last for the \"next couple of quarters\" -- likely because Amazon Web Services helps companies handle the data they need to grow. While Amazon's core businesses wait to rebound, investors should pay close attention to its new growth drivers. Healthcare and digital advertising?Amazon's scale and network effects helped it dominate e-commerce and cloud computing. And these strengths can also provide it with advantages as it pursues new opportunities in areas like healthcare and digital advertising. In the fourth quarter, its ad business grew 19% to $11.6 billion. With its shopping-motivated user base of more than 300 million active accounts, Amazon has plenty of data to use for targeting ads, which could allow it to charge higher rates for ad placements. The company is also betting on healthcare through One Medical, which it acquired for $3.9 billion in February. Amazon already has a toehold in the healthcare industry through its Amazon Care brand. This latest deal is likely designed to expand its prescription-delivery service and primary care network. While it is too early to know for sure, healthcare could eventually become another driver of growth and diversification for the company. A great way to bet on a reboundIt is impossible to know exactly when Wall Street will enter another sustained bull market. But if history is anything to go by, what went down will eventually rise up. Companies like Amazon face significant challenges. But their substantial share-price declines in 2022 have priced in some of those risks. Investors can look forward to a recovery in Amazon's e-commerce and cloud computing businesses while digital advertising and healthcare potentially power its next leg of growth. The company looks like a great way to bet on a stock market rebound.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949139909,"gmtCreate":1678416542101,"gmtModify":1678416544918,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OMG!!&nbsp;","listText":"OMG!!&nbsp;","text":"OMG!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949139909","repostId":"1167818913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949197205,"gmtCreate":1678415773408,"gmtModify":1678415777252,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Patience","listText":"Patience","text":"Patience","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949197205","repostId":"2318455442","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949197685,"gmtCreate":1678415627448,"gmtModify":1678415630375,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949197685","repostId":"1117344818","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117344818","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678413116,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117344818?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 09:51","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Drops Below $20,000 Level for First Time Since January","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117344818","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Bitcoin fell as much as 1.2% in Asia-Pacific hours on Friday, slipping below the $20,000 level for t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Bitcoin fell as much as 1.2% in Asia-Pacific hours on Friday, slipping below the $20,000 level for the first time since January.</p><ul><li>The retreat follows a tumble of more than 8% on Thursday in a broad crypto market selloff</li><li>The largest token was trading at $20,035 as of 9:11 a.m. in Singapore</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Drops Below $20,000 Level for First Time Since January</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Drops Below $20,000 Level for First Time Since January\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-10 09:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/bitcoin-drops-below-20-000-level-for-first-time-since-january?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin fell as much as 1.2% in Asia-Pacific hours on Friday, slipping below the $20,000 level for the first time since January.The retreat follows a tumble of more than 8% on Thursday in a broad ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/bitcoin-drops-below-20-000-level-for-first-time-since-january?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WGMI":"Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF","BITO":"ProShares Bitcoin ETF","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","XBTF":"VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/bitcoin-drops-below-20-000-level-for-first-time-since-january?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117344818","content_text":"Bitcoin fell as much as 1.2% in Asia-Pacific hours on Friday, slipping below the $20,000 level for the first time since January.The retreat follows a tumble of more than 8% on Thursday in a broad crypto market selloffThe largest token was trading at $20,035 as of 9:11 a.m. in Singapore","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940637646,"gmtCreate":1677856463585,"gmtModify":1677856466688,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!","listText":"Yes!","text":"Yes!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940637646","repostId":"2316754539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2316754539","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1677855933,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316754539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-03 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want to Get Richer? 3 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316754539","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Amazon, Apple, and AMD have provided investors with consistent gains over the past decade and will likely continue doing so for the next decade and beyond.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>In 2022, the <b>Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector</b> index plunged almost 40% after macroeconomic declines led to reduced spending in the industry. As a result, many of the world&#39;s most valuable companies experienced steep declines in their share prices.</p><p>The economically challenging year highlighted the importance of holding stocks for the long term because your investment may just be facing temporary headwinds. For instance, many stocks have been rising since the start of 2023, which would be a missed opportunity for those who sold at the bottom last year.</p><p>So, want to get richer? Here are three stocks you can buy now and hold forever.</p><h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a></h2><p><b>Amazon</b> (AMZN) had a worse year than most in 2022, with its stock falling 49.6%. The decline was mainly due to challenges in its e-commerce segment, which reported operating losses totaling $10.6 billion for the year.</p><p>Despite the losses, Amazon proved the strength of its diversified business model with its cloud platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS), earning 100% of the company&#39;s $12.2 billion in operating income. AWS also reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 28.7% to $80 billion.</p><p>Amazon may have started 2023 at a disadvantage, but it remains one of the best growth stocks out there. The company&#39;s shares have risen 23% over the last five years and 609% over the last 10 years. Meanwhile, its annual revenue has increased 189% to $513.98 billion since 2018, and operating income has soared 198% to $12.2 billion over that same time frame.</p><p>In the coming years, Amazon&#39;s leading market share in e-commerce and cloud computing will likely continue to pay off. Despite recent declines in its online retail business, the market still has plenty of room for growth, making Amazon&#39;s stock an excellent investment to buy now and hold forever.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></h2><p><b>Apple</b>&#39;s (AAPL) stock is always easy to recommend and makes a great addition to almost any portfolio. For instance, while the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index tumbled 40% in 2022, the iPhone maker proved its resilience by falling a more moderate 26.8%. Apple&#39;s stock also fared better than many of its peers amid economic challenges, as seen in the chart below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47b77d71c0790b40a71bd500a61b7af\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Moreover, Apple has offered investors significant gains over the long term. Since 2018, the tech giant&#39;s stock has climbed 233%, and it&#39;s soared 837% since 2013. The impressive returns have come alongside five-year revenue growth of 130% to $394 billion, with its operating income increasing 144% to $119 billion during that time frame.</p><p>With reliable and consistent growth, it&#39;s not surprising Wall Street mogul Warren Buffett allocated 41.3% of <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&#39;s portfolio to Apple shares. In fact, Buffett saw the company&#39;s stock dip last year as a buying opportunity, boosting Berkshire&#39;s stake in the fourth quarter of 2022 by $3 billion.</p><p>Apple&#39;s stock has risen 179% since Berkshire first invested in 2016.  The growth is thanks to its almost unparalleled brand loyalty and a walled garden of products that brings consumers deeper and deeper into its ecosystem with just one purchase. Apple&#39;s business has made it the world&#39;s most valuable company, with a market cap of $2.35 trillion, making it an excellent stock to hold indefinitely.</p><h2>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices</a></h2><p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b> (AMD) was one of the hardest-hit companies last year, with its stock plummeting 55%. The business suffered from declines in the PC market, which saw worldwide shipments for components such as graphics processing units (GPUs) fall 42% year over year in the third quarter.</p><p>Despite the stock&#39;s substantial tumble, AMD shares have returned 538% in the last five years and over 3,000% in the last decade. Additionally, the company&#39;s annual revenue has increased by 264% to $23.6 billion since 2019, while operating income has risen 180% to $1.2 billion. AMD&#39;s growth has largely come from success in custom and consumer processors (CPUs), with its Ryzen series leading it to steal market share from <b>Intel</b> consistently. According to Statista, since Q2 2017, AMD&#39;s CPU market share has gone from 20.2% to 35.2%, while Intel&#39;s has gone from 79.7% to 62.8%.</p><p>However, the biggest reason to invest in AMD is its resilience after a challenging 2022. In Q4 2022, the slumping PC market led the company&#39;s client and gaming segments to report revenue declines of 51% and 7%, respectively, year over year. As a result, AMD pivoted to more lucrative parts of its business, with its highest-earning division becoming data centers, which posted a revenue increase of 42% to $1.7 billion. Meanwhile, its embedded segment saw revenue grow over 1,800% to $1.4 billion. The redirection in its business meant the company retained growth despite market headwinds, with revenue rising 43.6% to $23.6 billion in its fiscal 2022.</p><p>AMD has solid leadership, with CEO Lisa Su taking the company from the brink of bankruptcy prior to 2017 to a dominating position in tech. AMD&#39;s performance under pressure and immense long-term growth makes its stock one to buy and hold forever.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want to Get Richer? 3 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant to Get Richer? 3 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-03 23:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/03/want-to-get-richer-3-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 2022, the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index plunged almost 40% after macroeconomic declines led to reduced spending in the industry. As a result, many of the world's most valuable companies ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/03/want-to-get-richer-3-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMD":"美国超微公司","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/03/want-to-get-richer-3-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316754539","content_text":"In 2022, the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index plunged almost 40% after macroeconomic declines led to reduced spending in the industry. As a result, many of the world's most valuable companies experienced steep declines in their share prices.The economically challenging year highlighted the importance of holding stocks for the long term because your investment may just be facing temporary headwinds. For instance, many stocks have been rising since the start of 2023, which would be a missed opportunity for those who sold at the bottom last year.So, want to get richer? Here are three stocks you can buy now and hold forever.1. AmazonAmazon (AMZN) had a worse year than most in 2022, with its stock falling 49.6%. The decline was mainly due to challenges in its e-commerce segment, which reported operating losses totaling $10.6 billion for the year.Despite the losses, Amazon proved the strength of its diversified business model with its cloud platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS), earning 100% of the company's $12.2 billion in operating income. AWS also reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 28.7% to $80 billion.Amazon may have started 2023 at a disadvantage, but it remains one of the best growth stocks out there. The company's shares have risen 23% over the last five years and 609% over the last 10 years. Meanwhile, its annual revenue has increased 189% to $513.98 billion since 2018, and operating income has soared 198% to $12.2 billion over that same time frame.In the coming years, Amazon's leading market share in e-commerce and cloud computing will likely continue to pay off. Despite recent declines in its online retail business, the market still has plenty of room for growth, making Amazon's stock an excellent investment to buy now and hold forever.2. AppleApple's (AAPL) stock is always easy to recommend and makes a great addition to almost any portfolio. For instance, while the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index tumbled 40% in 2022, the iPhone maker proved its resilience by falling a more moderate 26.8%. Apple's stock also fared better than many of its peers amid economic challenges, as seen in the chart below.Data by YChartsMoreover, Apple has offered investors significant gains over the long term. Since 2018, the tech giant's stock has climbed 233%, and it's soared 837% since 2013. The impressive returns have come alongside five-year revenue growth of 130% to $394 billion, with its operating income increasing 144% to $119 billion during that time frame.With reliable and consistent growth, it's not surprising Wall Street mogul Warren Buffett allocated 41.3% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio to Apple shares. In fact, Buffett saw the company's stock dip last year as a buying opportunity, boosting Berkshire's stake in the fourth quarter of 2022 by $3 billion.Apple's stock has risen 179% since Berkshire first invested in 2016.  The growth is thanks to its almost unparalleled brand loyalty and a walled garden of products that brings consumers deeper and deeper into its ecosystem with just one purchase. Apple's business has made it the world's most valuable company, with a market cap of $2.35 trillion, making it an excellent stock to hold indefinitely.3. Advanced Micro DevicesAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) was one of the hardest-hit companies last year, with its stock plummeting 55%. The business suffered from declines in the PC market, which saw worldwide shipments for components such as graphics processing units (GPUs) fall 42% year over year in the third quarter.Despite the stock's substantial tumble, AMD shares have returned 538% in the last five years and over 3,000% in the last decade. Additionally, the company's annual revenue has increased by 264% to $23.6 billion since 2019, while operating income has risen 180% to $1.2 billion. AMD's growth has largely come from success in custom and consumer processors (CPUs), with its Ryzen series leading it to steal market share from Intel consistently. According to Statista, since Q2 2017, AMD's CPU market share has gone from 20.2% to 35.2%, while Intel's has gone from 79.7% to 62.8%.However, the biggest reason to invest in AMD is its resilience after a challenging 2022. In Q4 2022, the slumping PC market led the company's client and gaming segments to report revenue declines of 51% and 7%, respectively, year over year. As a result, AMD pivoted to more lucrative parts of its business, with its highest-earning division becoming data centers, which posted a revenue increase of 42% to $1.7 billion. Meanwhile, its embedded segment saw revenue grow over 1,800% to $1.4 billion. The redirection in its business meant the company retained growth despite market headwinds, with revenue rising 43.6% to $23.6 billion in its fiscal 2022.AMD has solid leadership, with CEO Lisa Su taking the company from the brink of bankruptcy prior to 2017 to a dominating position in tech. AMD's performance under pressure and immense long-term growth makes its stock one to buy and hold forever.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940119545,"gmtCreate":1677746083087,"gmtModify":1677746086865,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940119545","repostId":"1110506430","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110506430","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677742614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110506430?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tiger Chart | Highlights from Tesla's Investor Day: Optimus, Cybertruck, Third-Gen Platform and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110506430","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"There’s a lot of excitement around Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day.  Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part 3 detail","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>There’s a lot of excitement around Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day.  Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part 3 details on the company’s third-generation platform, and how Tesla could reach an extreme scale.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66adc995eddf230cc22988082f007bb0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"3618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Chart | Highlights from Tesla's Investor Day: Optimus, Cybertruck, Third-Gen Platform and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Chart | Highlights from Tesla's Investor Day: Optimus, Cybertruck, Third-Gen Platform and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-02 15:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>There’s a lot of excitement around Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day.  Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part 3 details on the company’s third-generation platform, and how Tesla could reach an extreme scale.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66adc995eddf230cc22988082f007bb0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"3618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110506430","content_text":"There’s a lot of excitement around Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day.  Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part 3 details on the company’s third-generation platform, and how Tesla could reach an extreme scale.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940350642,"gmtCreate":1677714790286,"gmtModify":1677714792985,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63fb5580b066a9928e340d40884a98d0","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940350642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940350882,"gmtCreate":1677714716246,"gmtModify":1677714719004,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GLD\">$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$&nbsp;</a>Time to hedge against stocks","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GLD\">$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$&nbsp;</a>Time to hedge against stocks","text":"$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ Time to hedge against stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940350882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940069176,"gmtCreate":1677599187895,"gmtModify":1677599190752,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Expect $10.20","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Expect $10.20","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Expect $10.20","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940069176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957865273,"gmtCreate":1677162988193,"gmtModify":1677162992930,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957865273","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954289000,"gmtCreate":1676390469901,"gmtModify":1676390474556,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954289000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954641529,"gmtCreate":1676348153561,"gmtModify":1676348156868,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954641529","repostId":"1124797260","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124797260","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676346759,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124797260?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-14 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124797260","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As inflation cooled, Chairman Jerome Powell kept mostly quiet about a $5 trillion equity rally that many worry impedes his efforts to drain bloat from the economy.</p><p>Whether the peace can last will depend a lot on Tuesday’s consumer price index.</p><p>Consensus is building that a softer reading is likely to revive the new year’s equity rally while anything stronger may extend last week’s selloff in risky assets. Stocks and bonds have risen sharply since October when inflation reversed a two-year trend where CPI readings came in mostly stronger than expected. A simultaneous easing in financial conditions has repeatedly been brushed off by Powell despite questions over whether it hurts his goal of slowing demand and curbing inflation.</p><p>“I don’t think this Fed expected financial conditions to ease as much as they have, but as long as inflation keeps trending south, they’re not objecting,” Tony Pasquariello, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note Friday. “This only ups the ante for CPI.”</p><p>Which part of consumer prices investors will focus on and how they will place bets in various scenarios are where some of the differences lie. At least that’s according to the game plans presented by two of Wall Street’s most prominent sales and trading desks.</p><p>The team at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. put emphasis on the yearly change in the consumer price index. Economists expected a decline to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in the prior month.</p><p>Should the data come in near the estimate, confirming continued cooling in inflation, bond yields and the dollar will fall while technology and economically sensitive shares lead an advance in the S&amp;P 500. But any equity gains are likely to fade, they warned, once investors shift attention to a relatively slower pace of disinflation than the previous two months, where each CPI print saw a decrease of 60 basis points.</p><p>At Morgan Stanley, the trading desk focused on CPI’s month-over-month change, which the bank’s economists forecast to show a 0.4% increase. In the event of a soft print, say 0.2%, tech and consumer stocks will climb alongside a rally in fixed income. A hotter reading like 0.6%, however, is expected to spark a risk-off move that even cyclical shares poised to benefit from inflation can’t escape.</p><p>Predicting inflation has proved almost impossible in the post-pandemic world, not to mention market reactions to it. If anything, the exercise from the two firms offers a lens into the risks that investors are contending with.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511844d853423b5e45eb90c64143b284\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At JPMorgan, the trading team including Andrew Tyler saw an almost two-in-three chance for the CPI data to arrive within 20 basis points of the median estimate from economists.</p><p>After a surprise jump in Manheim’s used-vehicle price index, expectations for a hotter reading have grown. If inflation comes in above 6.5% — a scenario that Tyler’s team assigned a 5% probability, the S&amp;P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3%. Should that occur, invest should look to sell expensive software stocks and cryptocurrencies while buying Treasuries and the dollar, the team suggested.</p><p>“This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis and could be driven by services where the consumer has shown a rebound in spending, evidenced by the latest Manheim print,” they wrote in a note Friday. “More troubling for bulls is that this scenario would occur before we have witnessed an inflationary impulse from China.”</p><p>From stocks to bonds, financial assets last week halted their new-year bounce as Fed officials stressed the need to keep raising interest rates amid ongoing price pressures. Amid the hawkish remarks, traders ramped up bets on the Fed’s peak rate to around 5.2%, from under 5% earlier this month.</p><p>“The recent backup in bond yields may be enough such that we do not see another rate hike priced in given that we would have the March print before the next Fed meeting,” Tyler and his team said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-14 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/wall-street-trading-desks-map-out-game-plans-for-cpi-scenarios?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As inflation cooled, Chairman Jerome Powell kept mostly quiet about a $5 trillion equity rally that many ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/wall-street-trading-desks-map-out-game-plans-for-cpi-scenarios?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/wall-street-trading-desks-map-out-game-plans-for-cpi-scenarios?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124797260","content_text":"For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As inflation cooled, Chairman Jerome Powell kept mostly quiet about a $5 trillion equity rally that many worry impedes his efforts to drain bloat from the economy.Whether the peace can last will depend a lot on Tuesday’s consumer price index.Consensus is building that a softer reading is likely to revive the new year’s equity rally while anything stronger may extend last week’s selloff in risky assets. Stocks and bonds have risen sharply since October when inflation reversed a two-year trend where CPI readings came in mostly stronger than expected. A simultaneous easing in financial conditions has repeatedly been brushed off by Powell despite questions over whether it hurts his goal of slowing demand and curbing inflation.“I don’t think this Fed expected financial conditions to ease as much as they have, but as long as inflation keeps trending south, they’re not objecting,” Tony Pasquariello, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note Friday. “This only ups the ante for CPI.”Which part of consumer prices investors will focus on and how they will place bets in various scenarios are where some of the differences lie. At least that’s according to the game plans presented by two of Wall Street’s most prominent sales and trading desks.The team at JPMorgan Chase & Co. put emphasis on the yearly change in the consumer price index. Economists expected a decline to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in the prior month.Should the data come in near the estimate, confirming continued cooling in inflation, bond yields and the dollar will fall while technology and economically sensitive shares lead an advance in the S&P 500. But any equity gains are likely to fade, they warned, once investors shift attention to a relatively slower pace of disinflation than the previous two months, where each CPI print saw a decrease of 60 basis points.At Morgan Stanley, the trading desk focused on CPI’s month-over-month change, which the bank’s economists forecast to show a 0.4% increase. In the event of a soft print, say 0.2%, tech and consumer stocks will climb alongside a rally in fixed income. A hotter reading like 0.6%, however, is expected to spark a risk-off move that even cyclical shares poised to benefit from inflation can’t escape.Predicting inflation has proved almost impossible in the post-pandemic world, not to mention market reactions to it. If anything, the exercise from the two firms offers a lens into the risks that investors are contending with.At JPMorgan, the trading team including Andrew Tyler saw an almost two-in-three chance for the CPI data to arrive within 20 basis points of the median estimate from economists.After a surprise jump in Manheim’s used-vehicle price index, expectations for a hotter reading have grown. If inflation comes in above 6.5% — a scenario that Tyler’s team assigned a 5% probability, the S&P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3%. Should that occur, invest should look to sell expensive software stocks and cryptocurrencies while buying Treasuries and the dollar, the team suggested.“This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis and could be driven by services where the consumer has shown a rebound in spending, evidenced by the latest Manheim print,” they wrote in a note Friday. “More troubling for bulls is that this scenario would occur before we have witnessed an inflationary impulse from China.”From stocks to bonds, financial assets last week halted their new-year bounce as Fed officials stressed the need to keep raising interest rates amid ongoing price pressures. Amid the hawkish remarks, traders ramped up bets on the Fed’s peak rate to around 5.2%, from under 5% earlier this month.“The recent backup in bond yields may be enough such that we do not see another rate hike priced in given that we would have the March print before the next Fed meeting,” Tyler and his team said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955705872,"gmtCreate":1675734684497,"gmtModify":1675734687203,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955705872","repostId":"2309397369","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2309397369","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1675729486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2309397369?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-07 08:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Funds Caught in Bigger Squeeze Than 2021 Meme Stock Frenzy - Goldman Sachs Note","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309397369","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON/NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds betting against stocks globally abandoned those trade","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>LONDON/NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds betting against stocks globally abandoned those trades last week at the fastest pace since 2015, surpassing the speed of their exodus from the meme stock frenzy two years ago, according to a Goldman Sachs research note.</p><p>The latest short squeeze, implying that stock prices rose so much that bearish bets become too expensive to hold, saw hedge funds caught out by a sharp rally in equities on Feb. 2 after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of interest rate hikes and markets anticipated that rates would peak soon.</p><p>According to the Goldman note, seen by Reuters, the speed at which hedge funds exited bearish positions surpassed that seen in January 2021 when retail traders worked in concert to push shortsellers out of stocks such as videogame retailer Gamestop and movie theatre operator AMC Entertainment Holdings.</p><p>The 2021 buying frenzy of so-called meme stocks started on social media site Reddit, and at-home traders used retail trading platforms such as Robinhood to lift the price of heavily shorted stocks such as Gamestop. This forced many shortsellers out of positions and in some cases, funds restructured and returned money to their investors.</p><p>After a volatile two years, however, AMC and GME are now trading above their price levels of Jan. 15, 2021 just before the meme stock frenzy began.</p><p>Last week&#39;s short-squeeze followed a post-Fed rally. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 3.25% on Thursday - its biggest one-day jump in over two months - led by over 20% surges in orthodontic company Align Technology and Facebook parent company Meta Platforms.</p><p>That came just a day before a sharp selloff on Friday when stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data sparked a selloff in world stocks.</p><p>Despite the massive short covering, hedge fund managers do not seem to be more upbeat about markets. &#34;Positioning isn&#39;t &#39;high&#39; and it doesn&#39;t seem like many investors are bullish, per se,&#34; JPMorgan&#39;s Positioning Intelligence said in a note reviewed by Reuters, adding it has also seen hedge funds adding some shorts in highly shorted stocks.</p><p>World stocks were last down 0.7% with Friday&#39;s strong U.S. jobs report renewing concerns that the Fed may have to remain aggressive in its monetary tightening to tame inflation.</p><p>Still, the main stock indexes remain up through Friday, led by Nasdaq, which was up by around 14% since the start of this year. Goldman Sachs that fundamental long-short hedge funds posted a gain of 3.79% in January, driven by their market exposure. Systematic long-short funds, which use algorithmic trading, were down 0.50%.</p><p>The largest short positions held by hedge funds were in industrials and information technology companies, the Goldman note said. It added that hedge funds also exited many long positions in Asian developing markets and Chinese equities last week.</p><p>Resurgent risk appetite among some investors has also fuelled rallies in the shares of so-called meme stocks since the start of this year, though many analysts are sceptical the recent moves will last.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Funds Caught in Bigger Squeeze Than 2021 Meme Stock Frenzy - Goldman Sachs Note</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Funds Caught in Bigger Squeeze Than 2021 Meme Stock Frenzy - Goldman Sachs Note\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-07 08:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>LONDON/NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds betting against stocks globally abandoned those trades last week at the fastest pace since 2015, surpassing the speed of their exodus from the meme stock frenzy two years ago, according to a Goldman Sachs research note.</p><p>The latest short squeeze, implying that stock prices rose so much that bearish bets become too expensive to hold, saw hedge funds caught out by a sharp rally in equities on Feb. 2 after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of interest rate hikes and markets anticipated that rates would peak soon.</p><p>According to the Goldman note, seen by Reuters, the speed at which hedge funds exited bearish positions surpassed that seen in January 2021 when retail traders worked in concert to push shortsellers out of stocks such as videogame retailer Gamestop and movie theatre operator AMC Entertainment Holdings.</p><p>The 2021 buying frenzy of so-called meme stocks started on social media site Reddit, and at-home traders used retail trading platforms such as Robinhood to lift the price of heavily shorted stocks such as Gamestop. This forced many shortsellers out of positions and in some cases, funds restructured and returned money to their investors.</p><p>After a volatile two years, however, AMC and GME are now trading above their price levels of Jan. 15, 2021 just before the meme stock frenzy began.</p><p>Last week&#39;s short-squeeze followed a post-Fed rally. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 3.25% on Thursday - its biggest one-day jump in over two months - led by over 20% surges in orthodontic company Align Technology and Facebook parent company Meta Platforms.</p><p>That came just a day before a sharp selloff on Friday when stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data sparked a selloff in world stocks.</p><p>Despite the massive short covering, hedge fund managers do not seem to be more upbeat about markets. &#34;Positioning isn&#39;t &#39;high&#39; and it doesn&#39;t seem like many investors are bullish, per se,&#34; JPMorgan&#39;s Positioning Intelligence said in a note reviewed by Reuters, adding it has also seen hedge funds adding some shorts in highly shorted stocks.</p><p>World stocks were last down 0.7% with Friday&#39;s strong U.S. jobs report renewing concerns that the Fed may have to remain aggressive in its monetary tightening to tame inflation.</p><p>Still, the main stock indexes remain up through Friday, led by Nasdaq, which was up by around 14% since the start of this year. Goldman Sachs that fundamental long-short hedge funds posted a gain of 3.79% in January, driven by their market exposure. Systematic long-short funds, which use algorithmic trading, were down 0.50%.</p><p>The largest short positions held by hedge funds were in industrials and information technology companies, the Goldman note said. It added that hedge funds also exited many long positions in Asian developing markets and Chinese equities last week.</p><p>Resurgent risk appetite among some investors has also fuelled rallies in the shares of so-called meme stocks since the start of this year, though many analysts are sceptical the recent moves will last.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯","BBBY":"3B家居",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309397369","content_text":"LONDON/NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds betting against stocks globally abandoned those trades last week at the fastest pace since 2015, surpassing the speed of their exodus from the meme stock frenzy two years ago, according to a Goldman Sachs research note.The latest short squeeze, implying that stock prices rose so much that bearish bets become too expensive to hold, saw hedge funds caught out by a sharp rally in equities on Feb. 2 after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of interest rate hikes and markets anticipated that rates would peak soon.According to the Goldman note, seen by Reuters, the speed at which hedge funds exited bearish positions surpassed that seen in January 2021 when retail traders worked in concert to push shortsellers out of stocks such as videogame retailer Gamestop and movie theatre operator AMC Entertainment Holdings.The 2021 buying frenzy of so-called meme stocks started on social media site Reddit, and at-home traders used retail trading platforms such as Robinhood to lift the price of heavily shorted stocks such as Gamestop. This forced many shortsellers out of positions and in some cases, funds restructured and returned money to their investors.After a volatile two years, however, AMC and GME are now trading above their price levels of Jan. 15, 2021 just before the meme stock frenzy began.Last week's short-squeeze followed a post-Fed rally. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 3.25% on Thursday - its biggest one-day jump in over two months - led by over 20% surges in orthodontic company Align Technology and Facebook parent company Meta Platforms.That came just a day before a sharp selloff on Friday when stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data sparked a selloff in world stocks.Despite the massive short covering, hedge fund managers do not seem to be more upbeat about markets. \"Positioning isn't 'high' and it doesn't seem like many investors are bullish, per se,\" JPMorgan's Positioning Intelligence said in a note reviewed by Reuters, adding it has also seen hedge funds adding some shorts in highly shorted stocks.World stocks were last down 0.7% with Friday's strong U.S. jobs report renewing concerns that the Fed may have to remain aggressive in its monetary tightening to tame inflation.Still, the main stock indexes remain up through Friday, led by Nasdaq, which was up by around 14% since the start of this year. Goldman Sachs that fundamental long-short hedge funds posted a gain of 3.79% in January, driven by their market exposure. Systematic long-short funds, which use algorithmic trading, were down 0.50%.The largest short positions held by hedge funds were in industrials and information technology companies, the Goldman note said. It added that hedge funds also exited many long positions in Asian developing markets and Chinese equities last week.Resurgent risk appetite among some investors has also fuelled rallies in the shares of so-called meme stocks since the start of this year, though many analysts are sceptical the recent moves will last.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9933608935,"gmtCreate":1662266165227,"gmtModify":1676537028155,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"My take is that Sqqq can be good for short term plays&nbsp;n recovery balancing where some longs have already been too deep in the red. The idea is to&nbsp;be nimble, as the writer says, and hence take profiits off the table and ride&nbsp;on the volatility, taking advantage of the vagaries of the stock market especially 2022 and going into 2023.&nbsp;","listText":"My take is that Sqqq can be good for short term plays&nbsp;n recovery balancing where some longs have already been too deep in the red. The idea is to&nbsp;be nimble, as the writer says, and hence take profiits off the table and ride&nbsp;on the volatility, taking advantage of the vagaries of the stock market especially 2022 and going into 2023.&nbsp;","text":"My take is that Sqqq can be good for short term plays n recovery balancing where some longs have already been too deep in the red. The idea is to be nimble, as the writer says, and hence take profiits off the table and ride on the volatility, taking advantage of the vagaries of the stock market especially 2022 and going into 2023.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":37,"commentSize":48,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933608935","repostId":"1174731052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174731052","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662259842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174731052?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-04 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SQQQ: Don't Overstay Your Welcome","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174731052","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySQQQ provides 3x inverse 1-day returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index.Levered ETFs provide positive ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>SQQQ provides 3x inverse 1-day returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index.</li><li>Levered ETFs provide positive convexity in the direction of the bet.</li><li>Daily rebalancing of exposure causes value decay, especially in volatile markets.</li></ul><p>Investors who are afraid of market volatility often turn to inverse exchange-traded funds (&#34;ETFs&#34;) such as the Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:SQQQ) to protect their portfolios.</p><p>In my opinion, investors should consider reducing their long exposures instead of seeking inverse ETFs as a hedge, especially for holding periods of longer than a few days due to the volatility &#34;decay&#34; from daily rebalancings.</p><p><b>Fund Overview</b></p><p>As the name suggests, the Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF seeks daily returns that is -3x the return of the Nasdaq-100 Index. The fund achieves the -3x daily return target by entering into total return swaps with large banks that are reset nightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fff5d9cf3e686a0cfbbc881e341b99f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 1 - SQQQ holdings (proshares.com)</p><p><b>Levered ETFs Only Work On Short Time Horizons</b></p><p>Investors who are interested in the SQQQ are highly encouraged to read this disclaimer from the Proshares website:</p><blockquote><i>Due to thecompoundingof daily returns, holding periods of greater than one day can result in returns that are significantly different than the target return, and ProShares&#39; returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be more pronounced in funds with larger or inverse multiples and in funds with volatile benchmarks.</i></blockquote><p>What this means in layman terms is that the SQQQ is only designed to provide 3x inverse returns for one day. For any holding period longer than 1 day, the returns expectations will differ.</p><p>For example, imagine you start off with $100 invested in SQQQ. If the Nasdaq-100 index returns -5% on day 1, your position will grow to $115 (3 times the 1-day return of 5%). If the Nasdaq-100 returns -5% again on day 2, your position will grow to $132.25. The 2 day total is more than 3 times the 2-day compounded return of 10.25% or $130.75, because the two moves are in the same direction.</p><p>Conversely, if the returns were consecutive +5% on the Nasdaq-100 index, you would end up with $85 on day 1 and $72.25 on day 2, versus a 2-day compounded loss of 9.75%, or a $70.75 final balance assuming 3 times the returns.</p><p>Levered ETFs provide holders with &#34;<b><i>positive convexity&#34;</i></b>in the direction of their bet, i.e., with the SQQQ, as the Nasdaq-100 declines, the short exposure grows, and vice versa.</p><p><b>Levered ETFs Decay In Volatile Markets</b></p><p>The biggest problem with levered ETFs is that the daily rebalancing of the fund&#39;s exposure means that in volatile markets, the fund can lose value very quickly.</p><p>Going back to our example above, if the Nasdaq-100 returned +5% on day 1 followed by -5% on day 2, that should translate to a compounded 2-day loss of 0.25%, or theoretical ending balance of $99.25. However, what happens is that on day 1, the SQQQ balance will fall to $85 (3 times the 1-day return of -5%), and on day 2, the SQQQ balance will only grow to $97.75 (3 times the 1-day return of 5%). $1.50 in &#34;value&#34; will have been lost to volatility. The higher the volatility, the more the &#34;decay.&#34;</p><p><b>Inverse ETFs Lose Value Over The Long-Term</b></p><p>Volatility coupled with the fact that markets are upwards trending in the long run means that inverse ETFs like the SQQQ are almost guaranteed to lose money over the long-term.</p><p>Comparing the performance of SQQQ vs. the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, we see that over any reasonably long time horizon, the SQQQ has been a money loser. Over 5 years, the SQQQ has lost $98.3 per $100 invested capital, and over 10 years, it has lost an incredible $99.93 per $100 invested capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/799c3972388654e161203372280ae578\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2 - SQQQ vs. QQQ performance (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>Even YTD, while the QQQ has lost 24.75% of its value, the SQQQ has only gained 52.6%, far less than the theoretical 74.25% gain, because of the volatility decay mentioned above. On a 1 year basis, while the QQQ has lost 21.3%, SQQQ has only gained 24.3%.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>If investors are truly concerned about their portfolios, they should consider reducing their long exposures instead of seeking inverse ETFs as a hedge, especially for holding periods of longer than a few days due to the volatility &#34;decay&#34; from daily rebalancing. Nimble traders can try to capitalize on the convex nature of levered ETF returns, but that is not an easy task, especially for novices.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SQQQ: Don't Overstay Your Welcome</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSQQQ: Don't Overstay Your Welcome\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-04 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538743-sqqq-dont-overstay-your-welcome><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySQQQ provides 3x inverse 1-day returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index.Levered ETFs provide positive convexity in the direction of the bet.Daily rebalancing of exposure causes value decay, especially ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538743-sqqq-dont-overstay-your-welcome\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538743-sqqq-dont-overstay-your-welcome","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174731052","content_text":"SummarySQQQ provides 3x inverse 1-day returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index.Levered ETFs provide positive convexity in the direction of the bet.Daily rebalancing of exposure causes value decay, especially in volatile markets.Investors who are afraid of market volatility often turn to inverse exchange-traded funds (\"ETFs\") such as the Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:SQQQ) to protect their portfolios.In my opinion, investors should consider reducing their long exposures instead of seeking inverse ETFs as a hedge, especially for holding periods of longer than a few days due to the volatility \"decay\" from daily rebalancings.Fund OverviewAs the name suggests, the Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF seeks daily returns that is -3x the return of the Nasdaq-100 Index. The fund achieves the -3x daily return target by entering into total return swaps with large banks that are reset nightly.Figure 1 - SQQQ holdings (proshares.com)Levered ETFs Only Work On Short Time HorizonsInvestors who are interested in the SQQQ are highly encouraged to read this disclaimer from the Proshares website:Due to thecompoundingof daily returns, holding periods of greater than one day can result in returns that are significantly different than the target return, and ProShares' returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be more pronounced in funds with larger or inverse multiples and in funds with volatile benchmarks.What this means in layman terms is that the SQQQ is only designed to provide 3x inverse returns for one day. For any holding period longer than 1 day, the returns expectations will differ.For example, imagine you start off with $100 invested in SQQQ. If the Nasdaq-100 index returns -5% on day 1, your position will grow to $115 (3 times the 1-day return of 5%). If the Nasdaq-100 returns -5% again on day 2, your position will grow to $132.25. The 2 day total is more than 3 times the 2-day compounded return of 10.25% or $130.75, because the two moves are in the same direction.Conversely, if the returns were consecutive +5% on the Nasdaq-100 index, you would end up with $85 on day 1 and $72.25 on day 2, versus a 2-day compounded loss of 9.75%, or a $70.75 final balance assuming 3 times the returns.Levered ETFs provide holders with \"positive convexity\"in the direction of their bet, i.e., with the SQQQ, as the Nasdaq-100 declines, the short exposure grows, and vice versa.Levered ETFs Decay In Volatile MarketsThe biggest problem with levered ETFs is that the daily rebalancing of the fund's exposure means that in volatile markets, the fund can lose value very quickly.Going back to our example above, if the Nasdaq-100 returned +5% on day 1 followed by -5% on day 2, that should translate to a compounded 2-day loss of 0.25%, or theoretical ending balance of $99.25. However, what happens is that on day 1, the SQQQ balance will fall to $85 (3 times the 1-day return of -5%), and on day 2, the SQQQ balance will only grow to $97.75 (3 times the 1-day return of 5%). $1.50 in \"value\" will have been lost to volatility. The higher the volatility, the more the \"decay.\"Inverse ETFs Lose Value Over The Long-TermVolatility coupled with the fact that markets are upwards trending in the long run means that inverse ETFs like the SQQQ are almost guaranteed to lose money over the long-term.Comparing the performance of SQQQ vs. the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, we see that over any reasonably long time horizon, the SQQQ has been a money loser. Over 5 years, the SQQQ has lost $98.3 per $100 invested capital, and over 10 years, it has lost an incredible $99.93 per $100 invested capital.Figure 2 - SQQQ vs. QQQ performance (Seeking Alpha)Even YTD, while the QQQ has lost 24.75% of its value, the SQQQ has only gained 52.6%, far less than the theoretical 74.25% gain, because of the volatility decay mentioned above. On a 1 year basis, while the QQQ has lost 21.3%, SQQQ has only gained 24.3%.ConclusionIf investors are truly concerned about their portfolios, they should consider reducing their long exposures instead of seeking inverse ETFs as a hedge, especially for holding periods of longer than a few days due to the volatility \"decay\" from daily rebalancing. Nimble traders can try to capitalize on the convex nature of levered ETF returns, but that is not an easy task, especially for novices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582015516749888","authorId":"3582015516749888","name":"HH浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2639351c97027c6f71c4d9729ef216d8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582015516749888","authorIdStr":"3582015516749888"},"content":"Take profit off the table.","text":"Take profit off the table.","html":"Take profit off the table."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077625842,"gmtCreate":1658516256786,"gmtModify":1676536169957,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Doom vs Opportunity Institutional leaders seem to be having continued dark predictions and talking about introducing cost cutting measures like lowering or pausing on hiring (Meta,Tesla,Costco, Microsoft,Amazon), even ridding under-performers (Zuckerberg), moving to cheaper tax locations (Tesla), reviewing expenses overall. Woe!Aggravation of war is not making inflation and supply chain disruptions go away any time soon and there seems no escape of recession reaching the rest of the world. Despite all these happening the stock market still moves, positively or negatively. I am still learning how to trade and realised one thing. The stock volatility creates opportunities for short term traders and, for those who kept some ‘cash-in-waiting’, some quick trades can be quite profitable if we a","listText":"Doom vs Opportunity Institutional leaders seem to be having continued dark predictions and talking about introducing cost cutting measures like lowering or pausing on hiring (Meta,Tesla,Costco, Microsoft,Amazon), even ridding under-performers (Zuckerberg), moving to cheaper tax locations (Tesla), reviewing expenses overall. Woe!Aggravation of war is not making inflation and supply chain disruptions go away any time soon and there seems no escape of recession reaching the rest of the world. Despite all these happening the stock market still moves, positively or negatively. I am still learning how to trade and realised one thing. The stock volatility creates opportunities for short term traders and, for those who kept some ‘cash-in-waiting’, some quick trades can be quite profitable if we a","text":"Doom vs Opportunity Institutional leaders seem to be having continued dark predictions and talking about introducing cost cutting measures like lowering or pausing on hiring (Meta,Tesla,Costco, Microsoft,Amazon), even ridding under-performers (Zuckerberg), moving to cheaper tax locations (Tesla), reviewing expenses overall. Woe!Aggravation of war is not making inflation and supply chain disruptions go away any time soon and there seems no escape of recession reaching the rest of the world. Despite all these happening the stock market still moves, positively or negatively. I am still learning how to trade and realised one thing. The stock volatility creates opportunities for short term traders and, for those who kept some ‘cash-in-waiting’, some quick trades can be quite profitable if we a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077625842","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000478","authorId":"9000000000000478","name":"Maria_yy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168415c8fa94e7b14ffb415e8098eac9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000478","authorIdStr":"9000000000000478"},"content":"Microsoft is definitely worth owning.","text":"Microsoft is definitely worth owning.","html":"Microsoft is definitely worth owning."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045878609,"gmtCreate":1656601011401,"gmtModify":1676535861024,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I just joined in March and so far feel comfortable, winning some and losing some, and learning along the way from Tiger experts andcommunity. Thank you Tiger","listText":"I just joined in March and so far feel comfortable, winning some and losing some, and learning along the way from Tiger experts andcommunity. Thank you Tiger","text":"I just joined in March and so far feel comfortable, winning some and losing some, and learning along the way from Tiger experts andcommunity. Thank you Tiger","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06894e216fbe6b76b10d18bf4b87bf3b","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045878609","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578631759891221","authorId":"3578631759891221","name":"keaty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf9d00e41b755619a4b4c3eb6f05541","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578631759891221","authorIdStr":"3578631759891221"},"content":"preparing for another round","text":"preparing for another round","html":"preparing for another round"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983265759,"gmtCreate":1666251050971,"gmtModify":1676537730458,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"After my red fish dessert my paws came out again. I'm now back into bear ETFs at 70pc again whatever the gurus are saying <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPXU\">$S&amp;P 500 Bear 3X ETF(SPXU)$</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a> I'm a day trader not&nbsp;an investor Have a good day everyone&nbsp;and keep collecting coins, thanks to Mr DD <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\">@LMSunshine</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3559581955535845\">@koolgal</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581734227956830\">@SirBahamut</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3586922733730917\">@Elon2</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3559787818034959\">@Ericlam</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3555237785078725\">@许哲东</a>","listText":"After my red fish dessert my paws came out again. I'm now back into bear ETFs at 70pc again whatever the gurus are saying <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPXU\">$S&amp;P 500 Bear 3X ETF(SPXU)$</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a> I'm a day trader not&nbsp;an investor Have a good day everyone&nbsp;and keep collecting coins, thanks to Mr DD <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\">@LMSunshine</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3559581955535845\">@koolgal</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581734227956830\">@SirBahamut</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3586922733730917\">@Elon2</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3559787818034959\">@Ericlam</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3555237785078725\">@许哲东</a>","text":"After my red fish dessert my paws came out again. I'm now back into bear ETFs at 70pc again whatever the gurus are saying $S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF(SPXU)$$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ I'm a day trader not an investor Have a good day everyone and keep collecting coins, thanks to Mr DD @LMSunshine@koolgal@SirBahamut@Elon2@Ericlam@许哲东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":30,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983265759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093000606743040","authorId":"4093000606743040","name":"Michelle Ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8a2c49f4c3e66700e24774bbbaa8e5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4093000606743040","authorIdStr":"4093000606743040"},"content":"Like back thanks","text":"Like back thanks","html":"Like back thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045663522,"gmtCreate":1656608240466,"gmtModify":1676535862408,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WEAT\">$Teucrium Wheat Fund(WEAT)$</a>Despite all that talk about commodities going up because of the Ukraine crisis, why is Weat going down so much?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WEAT\">$Teucrium Wheat Fund(WEAT)$</a>Despite all that talk about commodities going up because of the Ukraine crisis, why is Weat going down so much?","text":"$Teucrium Wheat Fund(WEAT)$Despite all that talk about commodities going up because of the Ukraine crisis, why is Weat going down so much?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17b7f4ce4a08660213fb0dca807f40ca","width":"1125","height":"2085"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045663522","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4092664462639970","authorId":"4092664462639970","name":"Phillipsan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f364c09b985ef2a4f7e1383be3528ad","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092664462639970","authorIdStr":"4092664462639970"},"content":"Good things have been priced in, but I believe in long run commodity still in uptrend with on-going supply disruption and geopolitical tension in Russia","text":"Good things have been priced in, but I believe in long run commodity still in uptrend with on-going supply disruption and geopolitical tension in Russia","html":"Good things have been priced in, but I believe in long run commodity still in uptrend with on-going supply disruption and geopolitical tension in Russia"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917764722,"gmtCreate":1665589876066,"gmtModify":1676537632835,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe the market will just range now and after CPI it would plunge again as inflation isn't going to drop enough for JeromePowell to relax on rate increases.&nbsp;","listText":"I believe the market will just range now and after CPI it would plunge again as inflation isn't going to drop enough for JeromePowell to relax on rate increases.&nbsp;","text":"I believe the market will just range now and after CPI it would plunge again as inflation isn't going to drop enough for JeromePowell to relax on rate increases.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917764722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"content":"@LMSunshine @Elon2 @Ericlam @koolgal @Ichua j Join in for coins!","text":"@LMSunshine @Elon2 @Ericlam @koolgal @Ichua j Join in for coins!","html":"@LMSunshine @Elon2 @Ericlam @koolgal @Ichua j Join in for coins!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936909279,"gmtCreate":1662687713391,"gmtModify":1676537118555,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Till Sep 21/22. Keep some insurance&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;. I'm a speculator not an investor&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Till Sep 21/22. Keep some insurance&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;. I'm a speculator not an investor&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$Till Sep 21/22. Keep some insurance [Thinking] . I'm a speculator not an investor [Miser] [Sly]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38847dc9320323ac1d54de46cf1f8c97","width":"1124","height":"2104"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936909279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961464330,"gmtCreate":1669025704021,"gmtModify":1676538141316,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961464330","repostId":"2284891180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284891180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669017887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284891180?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284891180","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has som","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Stocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.</li><li>I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.</li><li>The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.</li><li>In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fe2c4feaba1c36352e0d9664de24f3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>“Hopium” is back again</h2><p>It doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8830de04b6cb31c02f372c43e213054\" tg-width=\"1275\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>CPI &amp; PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.</p><p>On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.</p><p>I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.</p><p>The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&amp;P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.</p><p>In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&amp;P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&amp;P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair value<i>should</i> be. There are many more factors at play.</p><p>After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.</p><h2>Searching for historical bottoms</h2><p>Usually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8447327903f174e95c5886662c788efe\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Fed Funds &amp; SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in only<i>after</i> the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.</p><p>In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated <i>because of it</i>. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.</p><p>During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93089c2daa2b2a46fe64342b4a9c84db\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Taylor-Rule (Author)</span></p><p>According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,<i>and</i> (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.</p><p>During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.</p><p>Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.</p><h2>Trying to time the pivot?</h2><p>We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.</p><p>Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?</p><p>That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:</p><h3>1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt with</h3><p>During the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.</p><h3>2. Unemployment is too low</h3><p>Without the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.</p><p>Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.</p><h3>3. Bad news will be bad news again</h3><p>I think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.</p><p>I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.</p><p>Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecc783a2e50ff641e9c70d6bfcb9101\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>M2 &amp; US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.</p><h3>4. A stock-market rally is bearish</h3><p>Something has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&amp;P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.</p><p><i>This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284891180","content_text":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images“Hopium” is back againIt doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.CPI & PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair valueshould be. There are many more factors at play.After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.Searching for historical bottomsUsually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:Fed Funds & SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in onlyafter the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated because of it. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.Taylor-Rule (Author)According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,and (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.Trying to time the pivot?We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt withDuring the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.2. Unemployment is too lowWithout the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.3. Bad news will be bad news againI think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:M2 & US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.4. A stock-market rally is bearishSomething has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.SummaryI believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918469417,"gmtCreate":1664432954740,"gmtModify":1676537454505,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I would only pick apple&nbsp;n tesla slowly Save some bullets as bear market deepens. Patience[Smile]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"I would only pick apple&nbsp;n tesla slowly Save some bullets as bear market deepens. Patience[Smile]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"I would only pick apple n tesla slowly Save some bullets as bear market deepens. Patience[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918469417","repostId":"1135976194","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135976194","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664428325,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135976194?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 13:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big Selling Wave in Stocks Makes for a Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135976194","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Institutional investors have been clearing out of stocks. They sold $42 billion worth in the five we","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0831fd5f611822a31c2f8f995111791\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Institutional investors have been clearing out of stocks. They sold $42 billion worth in the five weeks ending Sept. 21.</p><p>That followed $51 billion in sales during the five weeks ending Sept. 7 — the biggest selling wave this year, says S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Bank of America clients favored defensive names over cyclicals last week, another good contrarian signal telling us it is time be bullish and buy.</p><p>“This is a pretty good buying opportunity,” says David Baron of Baron Focused Growth Fund “Even if there is a slowdown next year, a lot of stocks are pricing in pretty draconian earnings.”</p><p>No one knows for sure what the future will bring. But Baron is worth listening to, judging by his record. His fund beats its mid-cap growth category and Morningstar U.S. mid-cap broad growth index by 14 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar Direct. That’s big outperformance.</p><p>The catch is that it may be a stock pickers’ market.</p><p>“Not everything is going to work together,” says Baron.</p><p>Here are three ways to deal with this.</p><p>1. You can solve this problem by leaving the driving to someone else, such as Baron. His fund gets five stars from Morningstar, the highest, and it charges 1.3% in expenses.</p><p>2. You can take a peek inside his portfolio for stock ideas. “A slowdown does not change our thesis on our stocks. Our companies continue to innovate and continue to grow,” says Baron.</p><p>3. Better yet, take the “meal for a lifetime” approach and consider what you can learn from him about investing.</p><p>I tackled the last two approaches in a recent chat with Baron about his investment approach and his biggest — and most recently purchased — positions.</p><p>Here are five key lessons that might help you improve your returns, with stock examples for each.</p><h2><b>1. Hold concentrated positions</b></h2><p>This one is not for everyone. A lot of investing is about managing risk, and big positions increase your risk considerably because if they go bad, you lose a lot of money. But time and again, I notice that investors who outperform often do so via large position size. (Read <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaires-typically-own-concentrated-stock-positions-this-investor-posted-a-30-fold-gain-over-10-years-on-one-little-known-company-11663163019?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">this other column</a> I wrote.) Talk to a financial adviser to see if this is right for you. But Baron has little doubt when it comes to his own fund. In a world where many managers cap their portfolio exposure to single names at 2% to 3%, at Baron’s fund, over 56% of the portfolio is in eight stocks. Each of those is a 4.5%-or-more position.</p><p>The biggest concentrated position, by far, is Tesla at 20.4%. Baron Funds famously took a large position in Tesla before it went parabolic, and then stuck with it despite the <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-bears-are-now-making-crazy-claims-short-circuiting-their-cause-2019-04-04?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">vitriolic skepticism</a> toward Tesla CEO Elon Musk.</p><p>Following the stock’s big move in 2020, the fund trimmed it a bit, but Baron is keeping a huge position.</p><p>“We see so much potential, we don’t want to sell,” says Baron. “Of all the companies I cover and [those] analysts come pitch to me, the company I feel the most confidence in is Tesla.”</p><p>Baron thinks the stock could still triple in less than a decade. What will get it there?</p><p>Tesla has created a strong brand with no marketing, and it has a 25% market share in electric cars, which are still in the very early stages of adoption. Only around 4% of vehicles are electric.</p><p>“People think we are going into a slowdown but demand for their cars has never been better,” he says.</p><p>Tesla delivered a million cars last year. It will deliver two million next year, and that’ll hit 20 million a year by the end of the decade, Baron predicts. Tesla produces high gross margins in the upper 20% range because cars that sell for around $50,000 cost around $36,000 to make. Baron thinks Tesla’s battery business could ultimately be as big as the car business.</p><p>The next four big concentrated positions are the privately held Space Exploration Technologies (also run by Musk), the insurer Arch Capital Group, Hyatt Hotels and the real estate market analytics company CoStar Group, at 5% to 6% each. (Holdings are valid as of the end of June.)</p><h2><b>2. Invest in growth</b></h2><p>Baron pays attention to valuations, but the portfolio has a growth bias.</p><p>This brings big exposure to the gaming and lodging sector, which makes up 20% of the portfolio. Baron, who was once a gaming analyst at Jefferies Group, expects solid growth as people continue to want to break free of pandemic lockdown life.</p><p>“People realized in the pandemic that life is short, and they want to get out and do things,” he says.</p><p>Baron tilts his exposure to gaming and lodging companies that serve higher-income consumers.</p><p>Baron thinks that even in a recession, these companies should still generate cash flow above 2019 levels. Wealthier customers will cut back less on spending in any recession. These companies have gotten more efficient by better targeting their marketing and trimming some customer perks. Holdings here include Hyatt, Red Rock Resorts, MGM Resorts International and Vail Resorts.</p><p>Baron also cites Krispy Kreme as a name with growth potential, as it continues to increase its presence in the marketplace, which Krispy Kreme calls “points of sale.” This includes things like prominent displays in convenience stores and supermarkets. Baron thinks Krispy Kreme could post 20% annual earnings growth, producing a double in the stock over the next three to four years.</p><p><b>3. Invest alongside founders</b></p><p>Academic research confirms that founder-run companies tend to outperform. Think Amazon.comnand Facebook parent Meta Platforms         which vastly outperformed the market.</p><p>A lesser-known name from Baron’s holdings that fit the bill is Figs. The company sells scrubs, lab coats and related health-care sector apparel designed for comfort, style and durability. Figs stock has fallen sharply to under $10 from highs of around $50 shortly after its May 2021 initial public offering.</p><p>Baron likens Figs to Under Armour,  the popular sports apparel company. “People love their product,” he says.</p><p>He thinks sales could double to $1 billion in three years. The company is run by co-founders Heather Hasson and Trina Spear. This is a new position for Baron as of the second quarter.</p><p>Another founder-run company in Baron’s portfolio is CoStar, which offers research and insights on commercial real estate trends and pricing. The company has a competitive advantage because it has the largest research team in the field, and it’s been in business for over 20 years. The company is expanding into residential real estate market analysis. This could help CoStar quadruple revenue or more over the next five years, says Baron. Founder Andrew Florance is the CEO.</p><h2><b>4. Look for large market opportunities</b></h2><p>Tesla is a good example, with its 25% share of the EV business that only makes up 4% of the overall vehicle market. So is another Musk company: Space Exploration Technologies.</p><p>SpaceX has two businesses, its Starlink internet service supported by a constellation of satellites, and its rocket launch business. Starlink has big potential because 3.5 billion people in the world are without internet access.</p><p>“This could be a trillion-dollar revenue business with extremely high margins,” says Baron.</p><p>Starlink recently signed on Royal Caribbean and T-Mobile US as customers. The rocket business has big growth potential because SpaceX can launch at one-tenth the cost of NASA.</p><p>Baron thinks SpaceX could be a 10-bagger over the next seven to 10 years. The problem for regular investors is that SpaceX is still private, and it may be years before it goes public because it doesn’t need cash, says Baron. Unless you are an accredited investor, it’s tough to get privately listed shares. For exposure to this one, owning Baron’s fund is one way to go.</p><h2><b>5. Have some ballast</b></h2><p>A risk with high-growth names is that their stocks can fall hard if growth stumbles a bit. Momentum investors in growth names are quick to sell.</p><p>To offset the risk of high-growth companies like Tesla and SpaceX, Baron likes to hold potentially safer names like Arch Capital Group in insurance and reinsurance. Arch Capital’s stock looks reasonably priced at 1.5 times its $31.37 book value. Second-quarter insurance sector net premiums grew 27.5%, year over year. Baron thinks the stock could double in four or five years.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Selling Wave in Stocks Makes for a Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Selling Wave in Stocks Makes for a Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-29 13:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-selling-wave-in-stocks-makes-for-a-buying-opportunity-says-baron-manager-who-has-20-of-his-funds-assets-in-tesla-11664385155?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Institutional investors have been clearing out of stocks. They sold $42 billion worth in the five weeks ending Sept. 21.That followed $51 billion in sales during the five weeks ending Sept. 7 — the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-selling-wave-in-stocks-makes-for-a-buying-opportunity-says-baron-manager-who-has-20-of-his-funds-assets-in-tesla-11664385155?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ACGL":"艾奇资本","AMZN":"亚马逊","MGM":"美高梅"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-selling-wave-in-stocks-makes-for-a-buying-opportunity-says-baron-manager-who-has-20-of-his-funds-assets-in-tesla-11664385155?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135976194","content_text":"Institutional investors have been clearing out of stocks. They sold $42 billion worth in the five weeks ending Sept. 21.That followed $51 billion in sales during the five weeks ending Sept. 7 — the biggest selling wave this year, says S&P Global Market Intelligence. Bank of America clients favored defensive names over cyclicals last week, another good contrarian signal telling us it is time be bullish and buy.“This is a pretty good buying opportunity,” says David Baron of Baron Focused Growth Fund “Even if there is a slowdown next year, a lot of stocks are pricing in pretty draconian earnings.”No one knows for sure what the future will bring. But Baron is worth listening to, judging by his record. His fund beats its mid-cap growth category and Morningstar U.S. mid-cap broad growth index by 14 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar Direct. That’s big outperformance.The catch is that it may be a stock pickers’ market.“Not everything is going to work together,” says Baron.Here are three ways to deal with this.1. You can solve this problem by leaving the driving to someone else, such as Baron. His fund gets five stars from Morningstar, the highest, and it charges 1.3% in expenses.2. You can take a peek inside his portfolio for stock ideas. “A slowdown does not change our thesis on our stocks. Our companies continue to innovate and continue to grow,” says Baron.3. Better yet, take the “meal for a lifetime” approach and consider what you can learn from him about investing.I tackled the last two approaches in a recent chat with Baron about his investment approach and his biggest — and most recently purchased — positions.Here are five key lessons that might help you improve your returns, with stock examples for each.1. Hold concentrated positionsThis one is not for everyone. A lot of investing is about managing risk, and big positions increase your risk considerably because if they go bad, you lose a lot of money. But time and again, I notice that investors who outperform often do so via large position size. (Read this other column I wrote.) Talk to a financial adviser to see if this is right for you. But Baron has little doubt when it comes to his own fund. In a world where many managers cap their portfolio exposure to single names at 2% to 3%, at Baron’s fund, over 56% of the portfolio is in eight stocks. Each of those is a 4.5%-or-more position.The biggest concentrated position, by far, is Tesla at 20.4%. Baron Funds famously took a large position in Tesla before it went parabolic, and then stuck with it despite the vitriolic skepticism toward Tesla CEO Elon Musk.Following the stock’s big move in 2020, the fund trimmed it a bit, but Baron is keeping a huge position.“We see so much potential, we don’t want to sell,” says Baron. “Of all the companies I cover and [those] analysts come pitch to me, the company I feel the most confidence in is Tesla.”Baron thinks the stock could still triple in less than a decade. What will get it there?Tesla has created a strong brand with no marketing, and it has a 25% market share in electric cars, which are still in the very early stages of adoption. Only around 4% of vehicles are electric.“People think we are going into a slowdown but demand for their cars has never been better,” he says.Tesla delivered a million cars last year. It will deliver two million next year, and that’ll hit 20 million a year by the end of the decade, Baron predicts. Tesla produces high gross margins in the upper 20% range because cars that sell for around $50,000 cost around $36,000 to make. Baron thinks Tesla’s battery business could ultimately be as big as the car business.The next four big concentrated positions are the privately held Space Exploration Technologies (also run by Musk), the insurer Arch Capital Group, Hyatt Hotels and the real estate market analytics company CoStar Group, at 5% to 6% each. (Holdings are valid as of the end of June.)2. Invest in growthBaron pays attention to valuations, but the portfolio has a growth bias.This brings big exposure to the gaming and lodging sector, which makes up 20% of the portfolio. Baron, who was once a gaming analyst at Jefferies Group, expects solid growth as people continue to want to break free of pandemic lockdown life.“People realized in the pandemic that life is short, and they want to get out and do things,” he says.Baron tilts his exposure to gaming and lodging companies that serve higher-income consumers.Baron thinks that even in a recession, these companies should still generate cash flow above 2019 levels. Wealthier customers will cut back less on spending in any recession. These companies have gotten more efficient by better targeting their marketing and trimming some customer perks. Holdings here include Hyatt, Red Rock Resorts, MGM Resorts International and Vail Resorts.Baron also cites Krispy Kreme as a name with growth potential, as it continues to increase its presence in the marketplace, which Krispy Kreme calls “points of sale.” This includes things like prominent displays in convenience stores and supermarkets. Baron thinks Krispy Kreme could post 20% annual earnings growth, producing a double in the stock over the next three to four years.3. Invest alongside foundersAcademic research confirms that founder-run companies tend to outperform. Think Amazon.comnand Facebook parent Meta Platforms         which vastly outperformed the market.A lesser-known name from Baron’s holdings that fit the bill is Figs. The company sells scrubs, lab coats and related health-care sector apparel designed for comfort, style and durability. Figs stock has fallen sharply to under $10 from highs of around $50 shortly after its May 2021 initial public offering.Baron likens Figs to Under Armour,  the popular sports apparel company. “People love their product,” he says.He thinks sales could double to $1 billion in three years. The company is run by co-founders Heather Hasson and Trina Spear. This is a new position for Baron as of the second quarter.Another founder-run company in Baron’s portfolio is CoStar, which offers research and insights on commercial real estate trends and pricing. The company has a competitive advantage because it has the largest research team in the field, and it’s been in business for over 20 years. The company is expanding into residential real estate market analysis. This could help CoStar quadruple revenue or more over the next five years, says Baron. Founder Andrew Florance is the CEO.4. Look for large market opportunitiesTesla is a good example, with its 25% share of the EV business that only makes up 4% of the overall vehicle market. So is another Musk company: Space Exploration Technologies.SpaceX has two businesses, its Starlink internet service supported by a constellation of satellites, and its rocket launch business. Starlink has big potential because 3.5 billion people in the world are without internet access.“This could be a trillion-dollar revenue business with extremely high margins,” says Baron.Starlink recently signed on Royal Caribbean and T-Mobile US as customers. The rocket business has big growth potential because SpaceX can launch at one-tenth the cost of NASA.Baron thinks SpaceX could be a 10-bagger over the next seven to 10 years. The problem for regular investors is that SpaceX is still private, and it may be years before it goes public because it doesn’t need cash, says Baron. Unless you are an accredited investor, it’s tough to get privately listed shares. For exposure to this one, owning Baron’s fund is one way to go.5. Have some ballastA risk with high-growth names is that their stocks can fall hard if growth stumbles a bit. Momentum investors in growth names are quick to sell.To offset the risk of high-growth companies like Tesla and SpaceX, Baron likes to hold potentially safer names like Arch Capital Group in insurance and reinsurance. Arch Capital’s stock looks reasonably priced at 1.5 times its $31.37 book value. Second-quarter insurance sector net premiums grew 27.5%, year over year. Baron thinks the stock could double in four or five years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042254497,"gmtCreate":1656486385319,"gmtModify":1676535839082,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's more like immediate quelling response. More factual disclosure would follow. They have to be above board to list in Sgx😄","listText":"It's more like immediate quelling response. More factual disclosure would follow. They have to be above board to list in Sgx😄","text":"It's more like immediate quelling response. More factual disclosure would follow. They have to be above board to list in Sgx😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042254497","repostId":"1131973774","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131973774","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656479352,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131973774?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 13:09","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO Inc. Responds to Short Seller Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131973774","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) today issued the following statement in response to alleg","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) today issued the following statement in response to allegations made in a report by Grizzly Research LLC, a short seller.</p><p>The report is without merit and contains numerous errors, unsupported speculations and misleading conclusions and interpretations regarding information relating to the Company. The Company&#39;s board of directors, including the audit committee, is reviewing the allegations and considering the appropriate course of action to protect the interests of all shareholders. The Company will make additional disclosures in due course consistent with the requirements of applicable rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Stock Exchange, The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “SEHK”) and the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”).</p><p>The Company emphasizes its continued and unwavering commitment to maintaining high standards of corporate governance and internal control, as well as transparent and timely disclosure in compliance with applicable rules and regulations.</p><p>Short-seller Grizzly Research released a negative research report on Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio (NYSE: NIO) Tuesday.</p><p>In the report, Grizzly states they believe Nio &#34;plays valeant-esque accounting games to inflate revenue and boost net income margins to meet targets.&#34;</p><p>Despite their significant fall from all-time highs during the Covid pandemic, Nio shares are still up considerably from pre-pandemic levels, making it one of China&#39;s most valuable electric vehicle companies.</p><p>&#34;Allow us to introduce you to Wuhan Weineng (&#34;Weineng&#34;), the convenient difference-maker helping NIO exceed lofty growth and profitability estimates on The Street. Despite being formed by NIO and a consortium of investors in late 2020, this unconsolidated related party has already generated billions in revenue for NIO,&#34; Grizzly said. &#34;While this rapid growth is impressive on the surface, our investigation has found Weineng might be to NIO what Philidor was to Valeant. Just as Philidor aided Valeant in habitually making numbers, NIO has curiously exceeded estimates since establishing Weineng.&#34;</p><p>Grizzly believes sales to Weineng have inflated Nio&#39;s revenue and net income by 10% and 95%, respectively.</p><p>&#34;Specifically, we find that at least 60% of its FY2021 earnings beat seems attributable to Weineng.&#34;</p><p>In further claims, the report states NIO gave Weineng up to an extra 21,053 batteries to boost its numbers, Weineng&#39;s top two executives double as NIO&#39;s Vice President and Battery Operating Executive Manager, and NIO&#39;s Chairman and CEO, Bin Li, is closely tied to parties central to the Luckin Coffee Fraud.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Inc. Responds to Short Seller Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Inc. Responds to Short Seller Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-29 13:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) today issued the following statement in response to allegations made in a report by Grizzly Research LLC, a short seller.</p><p>The report is without merit and contains numerous errors, unsupported speculations and misleading conclusions and interpretations regarding information relating to the Company. The Company&#39;s board of directors, including the audit committee, is reviewing the allegations and considering the appropriate course of action to protect the interests of all shareholders. The Company will make additional disclosures in due course consistent with the requirements of applicable rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Stock Exchange, The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “SEHK”) and the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”).</p><p>The Company emphasizes its continued and unwavering commitment to maintaining high standards of corporate governance and internal control, as well as transparent and timely disclosure in compliance with applicable rules and regulations.</p><p>Short-seller Grizzly Research released a negative research report on Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio (NYSE: NIO) Tuesday.</p><p>In the report, Grizzly states they believe Nio &#34;plays valeant-esque accounting games to inflate revenue and boost net income margins to meet targets.&#34;</p><p>Despite their significant fall from all-time highs during the Covid pandemic, Nio shares are still up considerably from pre-pandemic levels, making it one of China&#39;s most valuable electric vehicle companies.</p><p>&#34;Allow us to introduce you to Wuhan Weineng (&#34;Weineng&#34;), the convenient difference-maker helping NIO exceed lofty growth and profitability estimates on The Street. Despite being formed by NIO and a consortium of investors in late 2020, this unconsolidated related party has already generated billions in revenue for NIO,&#34; Grizzly said. &#34;While this rapid growth is impressive on the surface, our investigation has found Weineng might be to NIO what Philidor was to Valeant. Just as Philidor aided Valeant in habitually making numbers, NIO has curiously exceeded estimates since establishing Weineng.&#34;</p><p>Grizzly believes sales to Weineng have inflated Nio&#39;s revenue and net income by 10% and 95%, respectively.</p><p>&#34;Specifically, we find that at least 60% of its FY2021 earnings beat seems attributable to Weineng.&#34;</p><p>In further claims, the report states NIO gave Weineng up to an extra 21,053 batteries to boost its numbers, Weineng&#39;s top two executives double as NIO&#39;s Vice President and Battery Operating Executive Manager, and NIO&#39;s Chairman and CEO, Bin Li, is closely tied to parties central to the Luckin Coffee Fraud.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131973774","content_text":"NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) today issued the following statement in response to allegations made in a report by Grizzly Research LLC, a short seller.The report is without merit and contains numerous errors, unsupported speculations and misleading conclusions and interpretations regarding information relating to the Company. The Company's board of directors, including the audit committee, is reviewing the allegations and considering the appropriate course of action to protect the interests of all shareholders. The Company will make additional disclosures in due course consistent with the requirements of applicable rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Stock Exchange, The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “SEHK”) and the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”).The Company emphasizes its continued and unwavering commitment to maintaining high standards of corporate governance and internal control, as well as transparent and timely disclosure in compliance with applicable rules and regulations.Short-seller Grizzly Research released a negative research report on Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio (NYSE: NIO) Tuesday.In the report, Grizzly states they believe Nio \"plays valeant-esque accounting games to inflate revenue and boost net income margins to meet targets.\"Despite their significant fall from all-time highs during the Covid pandemic, Nio shares are still up considerably from pre-pandemic levels, making it one of China's most valuable electric vehicle companies.\"Allow us to introduce you to Wuhan Weineng (\"Weineng\"), the convenient difference-maker helping NIO exceed lofty growth and profitability estimates on The Street. Despite being formed by NIO and a consortium of investors in late 2020, this unconsolidated related party has already generated billions in revenue for NIO,\" Grizzly said. \"While this rapid growth is impressive on the surface, our investigation has found Weineng might be to NIO what Philidor was to Valeant. Just as Philidor aided Valeant in habitually making numbers, NIO has curiously exceeded estimates since establishing Weineng.\"Grizzly believes sales to Weineng have inflated Nio's revenue and net income by 10% and 95%, respectively.\"Specifically, we find that at least 60% of its FY2021 earnings beat seems attributable to Weineng.\"In further claims, the report states NIO gave Weineng up to an extra 21,053 batteries to boost its numbers, Weineng's top two executives double as NIO's Vice President and Battery Operating Executive Manager, and NIO's Chairman and CEO, Bin Li, is closely tied to parties central to the Luckin Coffee Fraud.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574252569958688","authorId":"3574252569958688","name":"alanyeo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c143ec51d09c45e31e9ff8dacb742087","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574252569958688","authorIdStr":"3574252569958688"},"content":"The only competitive advantage that we had then was by shortening the time required to list their companies, usually within 6 mths, & this came at a cost in which many investors suffered ultimately.","text":"The only competitive advantage that we had then was by shortening the time required to list their companies, usually within 6 mths, & this came at a cost in which many investors suffered ultimately.","html":"The only competitive advantage that we had then was by shortening the time required to list their companies, usually within 6 mths, & this came at a cost in which many investors suffered ultimately."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930341118,"gmtCreate":1661907582836,"gmtModify":1676536601188,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>stocks&nbsp;will getlower no doubt about that. All the signsare there in the news on inflation, the dragging war in Ukraine&nbsp;and both the US n European central banks fighting inflation plus looming food shortages","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>stocks&nbsp;will getlower no doubt about that. All the signsare there in the news on inflation, the dragging war in Ukraine&nbsp;and both the US n European central banks fighting inflation plus looming food shortages","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$stocks will getlower no doubt about that. All the signsare there in the news on inflation, the dragging war in Ukraine and both the US n European central banks fighting inflation plus looming food shortages","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c56fbedfa00054fba0d45dabeeb09d0","width":"771","height":"1050"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930341118","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986515592,"gmtCreate":1666982967917,"gmtModify":1676537844241,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🎃🎃🎃<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Trick or Treat 🦇🙈🧸🔱🦇🦇🦇👻😿","listText":"🎃🎃🎃<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Trick or Treat 🦇🙈🧸🔱🦇🦇🦇👻😿","text":"🎃🎃🎃$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Trick or Treat 🦇🙈🧸🔱🦇🦇🦇👻😿","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bba5d4e94092f8a848f38d2092132d29","width":"722","height":"676"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986515592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4129515130099342","authorId":"4129515130099342","name":"Tony13141111","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/679e74b98ae2ceef7bbb4a1ee6633fbd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4129515130099342","authorIdStr":"4129515130099342"},"content":"How much have you got","text":"How much have you got","html":"How much have you got"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926456907,"gmtCreate":1671616293310,"gmtModify":1676538564358,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926456907","repostId":"2292433763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2292433763","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671610356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2292433763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-21 16:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Growth Stocks That Could Help Make You a Fortune","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2292433763","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies are booking wins even in the current environment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Most investors won&#39;t get rich in the stock market overnight. The good news is, as a long-term investor, you don&#39;t need to implement complicated strategies or investing games to build a portfolio that stands the test of time.</p><p>By letting a pattern of regularly buying and adding to wonderful companies become your habit in both bear and bull environments, you participate in both the peaks and valleys of market cycles without undermining your long-term investing strategy.</p><p>On that note, let&#39;s take a look at two fantastic buy-and-hold growth stocks that can enrich your portfolio returns many times over in the years to come.</p><h2><b>1. Airbnb</b></h2><p>The travel industry has dealt with its fair share of hurdles over the last few years, and it could be in for more challenges ahead, particularly if the macro environment officially veers into a recession. <b>Airbnb</b> has managed to buck many of the trends impacting the broader travel industry. Despite the fact shares are still down roughly 45% over the past 12 months, this sell-off traces its roots back to broad investor sentiment around growth stocks rather than specific issues with the company itself.</p><p>If anything, Airbnb&#39;s recovery has left most of the wider travel industry in the dust. As many growth businesses are struggling to retain headway in the current environment, the company continues to report quarter after quarter of strong growth. Even if this was to slow down in the near term in the event of a recession, Airbnb has built a solid foundation upon which it can launch itself into future, sustained business returns.</p><p>While global travel spending is slowing as consumers fear more economic pitfalls ahead, a huge catalyst behind Airbnb&#39;s continued expansion is tied to the fact the platform caters to a wide variety of consumers and travelers. Certainly, people use Airbnb to book short-term or vacation rentals, but more and more customers are turning to the platform to locate homes they can stay in for a much longer duration. In fact, approximately one-fifth of all gross bookings processed on Airbnb&#39;s platform are derived from long-term stays, which are bookings of 28 days or longer.</p><p>Airbnb&#39;s revenue jumped 29% year over year to $2.9 billion in the most recent quarter, while its net income rose 46% from the year-ago period to $1.2 billion. The third quarter was its most profitable to date. The company has proven time and again its platform remains well positioned to grow.</p><p>From business travelers and tourists to digital nomads, Airbnb&#39;s platform has something for everyone. It&#39;s this versatility, not to mention the vital stream of income that Airbnb provides to its more than four million hosts globally, that can fuel the consistent demand the company needs to grow in the near term and for many years to come.</p><h2><b>2. Shopify </b></h2><p><b>Shopify</b> isn&#39;t the the investor favorite that it was in the earlier days of the pandemic, but overlooking the stock due to its near-term challenges could be a mistake in the long run. Shares of Shopify are trading down by about 74% from the beginning of this year, and this has occurred for a few different reasons.</p><p>Investors have understandably been concerned about the company&#39;s turn into GAAP unprofitability in recent quarters. And as investors shy away from growth-oriented businesses with less capital flowing into the markets and macroeconomic conditions presenting elevated risk, this has also put severe downward pressure on the stock.</p><p>As always, it&#39;s important to look at the reason behind a stock&#39;s movements before you determine whether or not it&#39;s a wise addition to your portfolio. As for Shopify&#39;s recent losses, this goes back broadly to its continual pattern of aggressively investing in its business growth and the heavy use of stock-based compensation. In the first nine months of 2022 alone, Shopify spent $932 million on sales and marketing, compared to $626 million in the same period last year.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that Shopify&#39;s results have been affected by its portfolio of equity investments. The company has large stakes in heavily beaten-down tech stocks <b>Affirm</b> and <b>Global-e Online</b>, both of which it also has long-standing partnerships with. And just like individual investors have seen many equity investments decline over the last year, the same can be said of Shopify. Still, the company is making progress on a multitude of fronts. Shopify&#39;s addition of Deliverr to its fulfillment network earlier this year is key to enable its long-term growth, retain and expand its merchant network, and reduce exposure to the impact of future supply chain disruptions.</p><p>The platform remains a go-to for business owners around the world to do everything from launch a brand from scratch to seamlessly integrate an online store with a brick-and-mortar presence. In the first nine months of 2022, Shopify&#39;s top line jumped 20% year over year to $3.9 billion. Meanwhile, Shopify had $4.9 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet at the end of the period.</p><p>While Shopify&#39;s spending to build out its business will weigh on its bottom line in the near term, this can also position it for continued growth and enable it to retain its competitiveness over the long term. This ultimately bodes well for investors who take a buy-and-hold approach to the stock.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Growth Stocks That Could Help Make You a Fortune</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Growth Stocks That Could Help Make You a Fortune\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-21 16:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/20/2-growth-stocks-that-could-help-make-you-a-fortune/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Most investors won't get rich in the stock market overnight. The good news is, as a long-term investor, you don't need to implement complicated strategies or investing games to build a portfolio that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/20/2-growth-stocks-that-could-help-make-you-a-fortune/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","ABNB":"爱彼迎","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/20/2-growth-stocks-that-could-help-make-you-a-fortune/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2292433763","content_text":"Most investors won't get rich in the stock market overnight. The good news is, as a long-term investor, you don't need to implement complicated strategies or investing games to build a portfolio that stands the test of time.By letting a pattern of regularly buying and adding to wonderful companies become your habit in both bear and bull environments, you participate in both the peaks and valleys of market cycles without undermining your long-term investing strategy.On that note, let's take a look at two fantastic buy-and-hold growth stocks that can enrich your portfolio returns many times over in the years to come.1. AirbnbThe travel industry has dealt with its fair share of hurdles over the last few years, and it could be in for more challenges ahead, particularly if the macro environment officially veers into a recession. Airbnb has managed to buck many of the trends impacting the broader travel industry. Despite the fact shares are still down roughly 45% over the past 12 months, this sell-off traces its roots back to broad investor sentiment around growth stocks rather than specific issues with the company itself.If anything, Airbnb's recovery has left most of the wider travel industry in the dust. As many growth businesses are struggling to retain headway in the current environment, the company continues to report quarter after quarter of strong growth. Even if this was to slow down in the near term in the event of a recession, Airbnb has built a solid foundation upon which it can launch itself into future, sustained business returns.While global travel spending is slowing as consumers fear more economic pitfalls ahead, a huge catalyst behind Airbnb's continued expansion is tied to the fact the platform caters to a wide variety of consumers and travelers. Certainly, people use Airbnb to book short-term or vacation rentals, but more and more customers are turning to the platform to locate homes they can stay in for a much longer duration. In fact, approximately one-fifth of all gross bookings processed on Airbnb's platform are derived from long-term stays, which are bookings of 28 days or longer.Airbnb's revenue jumped 29% year over year to $2.9 billion in the most recent quarter, while its net income rose 46% from the year-ago period to $1.2 billion. The third quarter was its most profitable to date. The company has proven time and again its platform remains well positioned to grow.From business travelers and tourists to digital nomads, Airbnb's platform has something for everyone. It's this versatility, not to mention the vital stream of income that Airbnb provides to its more than four million hosts globally, that can fuel the consistent demand the company needs to grow in the near term and for many years to come.2. Shopify Shopify isn't the the investor favorite that it was in the earlier days of the pandemic, but overlooking the stock due to its near-term challenges could be a mistake in the long run. Shares of Shopify are trading down by about 74% from the beginning of this year, and this has occurred for a few different reasons.Investors have understandably been concerned about the company's turn into GAAP unprofitability in recent quarters. And as investors shy away from growth-oriented businesses with less capital flowing into the markets and macroeconomic conditions presenting elevated risk, this has also put severe downward pressure on the stock.As always, it's important to look at the reason behind a stock's movements before you determine whether or not it's a wise addition to your portfolio. As for Shopify's recent losses, this goes back broadly to its continual pattern of aggressively investing in its business growth and the heavy use of stock-based compensation. In the first nine months of 2022 alone, Shopify spent $932 million on sales and marketing, compared to $626 million in the same period last year.It's also worth noting that Shopify's results have been affected by its portfolio of equity investments. The company has large stakes in heavily beaten-down tech stocks Affirm and Global-e Online, both of which it also has long-standing partnerships with. And just like individual investors have seen many equity investments decline over the last year, the same can be said of Shopify. Still, the company is making progress on a multitude of fronts. Shopify's addition of Deliverr to its fulfillment network earlier this year is key to enable its long-term growth, retain and expand its merchant network, and reduce exposure to the impact of future supply chain disruptions.The platform remains a go-to for business owners around the world to do everything from launch a brand from scratch to seamlessly integrate an online store with a brick-and-mortar presence. In the first nine months of 2022, Shopify's top line jumped 20% year over year to $3.9 billion. Meanwhile, Shopify had $4.9 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet at the end of the period.While Shopify's spending to build out its business will weigh on its bottom line in the near term, this can also position it for continued growth and enable it to retain its competitiveness over the long term. This ultimately bodes well for investors who take a buy-and-hold approach to the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920820252,"gmtCreate":1670466016476,"gmtModify":1676538374087,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Despite all&nbsp;that employment data it's still scary as people are losing jobs by the day...","listText":"Despite all&nbsp;that employment data it's still scary as people are losing jobs by the day...","text":"Despite all that employment data it's still scary as people are losing jobs by the day...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920820252","repostId":"2289975465","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289975465","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1670449426,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2289975465?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-08 05:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks Amid Rising Recession Worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289975465","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.</p><p>For the benchmark S&amp;P 500, it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.</p><p>The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc on Morgan Stanley&#39;s iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc over production loss worries.</p><p>Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Bank of America Corp on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.</p><p>Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.</p><p>More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan&#39;s consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.</p><p>&#34;It feels like we&#39;re in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what&#39;s more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,&#34; said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.</p><p>&#34;The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.&#34;</p><p>The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.</p><p>Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92.</p><p>Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.</p><p>Three of the 11 major S&amp;P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare one of them. Technology and communication services, down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.</p><p>Energy fell for its fifth straight session. The sector&#39;s performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.</p><p>Carvana Co had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer&#39;s stock to &#34;underperform&#34; from &#34;neutral&#34; and slashed its price target to $1.</p><p>Meanwhile, United Airlines traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.</p><p>Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks Amid Rising Recession Worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks Amid Rising Recession Worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-08 05:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.</p><p>For the benchmark S&amp;P 500, it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.</p><p>The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc on Morgan Stanley&#39;s iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc over production loss worries.</p><p>Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Bank of America Corp on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.</p><p>Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.</p><p>More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan&#39;s consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.</p><p>&#34;It feels like we&#39;re in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what&#39;s more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,&#34; said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.</p><p>&#34;The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.&#34;</p><p>The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.</p><p>Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92.</p><p>Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.</p><p>Three of the 11 major S&amp;P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare one of them. Technology and communication services, down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.</p><p>Energy fell for its fifth straight session. The sector&#39;s performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.</p><p>Carvana Co had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer&#39;s stock to &#34;underperform&#34; from &#34;neutral&#34; and slashed its price target to $1.</p><p>Meanwhile, United Airlines traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.</p><p>Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289975465","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.For the benchmark S&P 500, it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc on Morgan Stanley's iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc over production loss worries.Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.\"It feels like we're in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what's more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,\" said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.\"The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.\"The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.The S&P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92.Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.Three of the 11 major S&P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare one of them. Technology and communication services, down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.Energy fell for its fifth straight session. The sector's performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.Carvana Co had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer's stock to \"underperform\" from \"neutral\" and slashed its price target to $1.Meanwhile, United Airlines traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc and Booking Holdings all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917592938,"gmtCreate":1665536891224,"gmtModify":1676537622761,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok. Just tip a little&nbsp;toe first. At this&nbsp;stage can just do it slowly[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Ok. Just tip a little&nbsp;toe first. At this&nbsp;stage can just do it slowly[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Ok. Just tip a little toe first. At this stage can just do it slowly[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917592938","repostId":"2274509950","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274509950","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665527328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274509950?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-12 06:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q3: Watch Out For $175 Entry Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274509950","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBased on the price movements caused by its 2022 Q3 delivery and AI day, I foresee Tesla stock a $175-$250 trading window in the near future (till the Q4 delivery).This article will detail my an","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Based on the price movements caused by its 2022 Q3 delivery and AI day, I foresee Tesla stock a $175-$250 trading window in the near future (till the Q4 delivery).</li><li>This article will detail my analysis of these trigger points so investors can better prepare for its incoming Q3 earnings report.</li><li>I see more downside than upside in the near term.</li><li>Although a $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f30162e5d01c89f44270126190415d5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>peerapong muangjan/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) experienced its largest one-day selloff recently after the company reported Q3 deliveries that missed consensus expectations. Given the magnitude of such price movements, my view is that the market has already fully bakedits incoming Q3 earnings report (scheduled on Oct. 19, 2022) into the current prices. And as such, I foresee the stock to be range bound between $175 and $250 in the near future. I do not see major catalysts to break this range till its Q4 delivery report.</p><p>This article will detail my analysis of these trigger points so investors can better prepare. Overall, I see more downside (about 22%) than upside (about 12%) in the near term. Although a $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding.</p><p>For swing traders, fundamental valuation metrics may be misleading for extremely volatile stocks like TSLA. It is a well-known fact, for such stocks, bottom valuation can occur at the bottom of their near-term cycle and vice versa. Hence, swing traders might find the first chart below more helpful. The stock is currently 46.6% off its recent high. And in the past since 2017, the stock has suffered corrections as large as this current only 3 times: in 2019, 2020, and most recently in 2022. As you can see, in each case, the stock staged a rapid rebound shortly afterward. And the $175 price, if reached due to jitter caused by its Q3 earnings report, would represent a 57% decline off its recent peak, closest to the largest retraction of 60% only during the COVID fire sale.</p><p>The remainder of this article is more oriented toward long-term holders. A price of $175 would translate into an FW EV/EBITDA of 26.4x, and next, you will see why such an entry valuation creates favorable returns potential in the long term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5603adba6f02bb330db601263275278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9369ffd7a8e33867fdda6d2103c79cb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author based on Yahoo data</span></p><h2>Long-term growth potential intact</h2><p>I view the Q3 delivery miss only as a short-term speed bump. To wit, Tesla produced 365,923 vehicles in Q3 and delivered 343,830. These numbers still represent remarkable growth (in the range of 40-50% YOY growth and the range of 30-40% QoQ). However, these numbers missed consensus estimates for deliveries by about 4%.</p><p>First, TSLA still enjoys capital allocation flexibility and is still investing aggressively toward growth. The following chart provides a summary of TSLA maintenance and growth capital spending in the recent past since Jan 2020. Its total depreciation and amortization (&#34;TDA&#34;) are $3.4B. Its CAPEX expenditures are at $7.15B, exceeding its total TDA by $3.75B. In relative terms, its CAPEX expenditures are more than 2x of its TDA.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6622bf64ea483a455c02f54048b2d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>And hence, a large part of its CAPEX spending is toward growth CAPEX. If we approximate its maintenance CAPEX by the TDA, then it has been on average $2.57B since 2020 as seen from the top panel above. And its total CAPEX has been on average $4.76B. The difference of $2.19B can then be used to approximate the amount of growth CAPEX it has been reinvesting. In other words, the growth CAPEX is on average about 46% of the total CAPEX spending in recent years. As a result, its owners&#39; earnings (&#34;OE&#34;) are much higher than its accounting EPS because the growth CAPEX should be added back to its owners&#39; earnings, as shown in the chart below.</p><p>The chart below shows TSLA&#39;s true economic earnings compared to its accounting EPS using Greenwald&#39;s method as detailed in my earlier article or his book entitled Value Investing. As seen, TSLA&#39;s OE has systematically exceeded its accounting EPS and also its FCF (free cash flow) since 2018. As of 2021, its OE is about $9 per share compared to an accounting EPS of only ~$2 per share.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59bb85704ef18293970f72f967ebe74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Non-linear growth drivers down the road</h2><p>Looking further out, there are longer-term growth drivers that are highly nonlinear. Currently, TSLA is still a &#34;car&#34; company that derives the bulk of its income from manufacturing and selling cars (84.7% of its total revenue as seen in the chart below).</p><p>However, its other segments, the non-manufacturing segments, are growing rapidly. As a notable example, its automotive services now represent 7.06% of its total revenue. With its FSD potential, such services can break all the limitations of hardware manufacturing. It could become totally scalable just like a software platform, and as a result, enjoys higher-order nonlinear growth. As detailed in my earlier article, a few key factors to consider:</p><blockquote><ol><li><i>FSD can lead to more miles driven. For example, researchers at the</i> <i>Institute of Transportationat the University of California began to show that automated or semi-automated vehicles like those TSLA makes, when there are enough of them in operation, can lead to increased vehicle miles traveled (&#34;VMT&#34;).</i></li><li><i>The FSD technology becomes more valuable when more people use it. In the 2022 Annual</i> <i>Meeting of Stockholders</i> <i>(Thursday, August 4, 2022), Musk believes that Tesla&#39;s cumulative production of vehicles will reach 100 million. Meanwhile, its autonomous driving technology is maturing and scaling up rapidly. As of Q2-2022, over 100,000 Tesla drivers in North America had access to Full Self-Driving Beta. And the accumulated miles driven by Full Self-Driving had been expanding exponentially and reached 35 million miles so far.</i></li></ol></blockquote><p>The factors create new strategies for TSLA to monetize in areas like service sales (service income will be proportional to VMT), insurance income (which would be also proportional to VMT but in a different paradigm with large-scale FSD deployment), and also autonomous driving functions and software.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11e8ebcb6136fb0b69bfd3b8abd66973\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BofA data and TSLA presentation</span></p><h2>The near-term headwinds</h2><p>Although in the near term, there is no shortage of headwinds to keep the stock price range bound as mentioned above. And the Q3 delivery miss is a symptom of these ongoing headwinds. These headwinds include limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for a large part of 1H 2022 and potential disruptions for the rest of the year also. The company still faces challenges associated with ongoing supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages. At the same, other traditional automakers are investing aggressively in their EV development too and competing fiercely for market share. Also, EV adoption is currently driven primarily by government regulations and subsidies, and these regulations and subsidies could change with short notice.</p><p>These uncertainties are encapsulated in the large variance in the consensus estimates. A total of 31 analysts provided earnings revisions for the last 3 months. And the revisions are close to a perfect split between Up Revisions and Down Revisions. A total of 18 analysts submitted an up revision and 13 a down revision. The revised estimates vary widely too. Even for 2022, the lower end of the consensus EPS is $3.75 and the high end is $6.53, a variance of 74%. And the variance widens further to 112% for 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333c69cc288ac721e338af33d85b6baf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>The $175-250 trading range again</h2><p>At its current price level, its valuation is still elevated despite the recent correction. To wit, it is currently valued at around 10.2x EV/sales ratio and 47.8x EV/EBITDA. On an FW basis, the multiples are a bit lower but it is at around 8.3x EV/sales ratio and 33.6x EV/EBITDA. It is expensive both in relative terms and absolute terms in my mind. As a reference point, the overall market is valued at about 3.5x EV/sales and 16x EV/EBITDA. On an absolute scale, leading institutions like BofA Global Research model its near-term valuation around 13x EV/Sales and 55x EV/EBITDA. I think these multiples are way too optimistic given the near-term headwinds and the historical volatility.</p><p>My target valuations are provided in the second chart below. As seen, I am essentially assuming ½ of the valuation provided by BofA in the near term. The lower bound of my price range corresponds to 6.5x FW EV/sales ratio and 26.4x EV/EBITDA. The estimates were made using financial data provided by SA as summarized in the lower part of the table.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9cbaf099431a293b3dc5d811169c254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0decb276cfc925bb3c6b0efa8745e5c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>To reiterate, I see Tesla stock price oscillating in a relatively narrow range of $175-$250 trading range till the Q4 delivery report. With the recent large price movements, the market has baked in the Q3 earnings report already. Overall, I see more downside in the near term than upside due to the near-term headwinds. Its Q3 delivery miss is a symptom of these headwinds, including the lingering effects from its Shanghai factor shutdown, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, et al.</p><p>While there might be some interesting opportunities for both swing traders and long-term investors, the $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding. A price of $175 would represent a 57% decline off its recent peak, closest to the largest retraction of 60% only during the COVID firesale. For long-term-oriented investors, a price of $175 would translate into a 26.4x EV/EBITDA, leaving a large margin of safety. It is about ½ of the multiples used by leading institutes such as BofA (55x) and close to its multi-year bottom of 23.6x observed in early 2020. Such a margin of safety shortens the timeframe for its nonlinear growth potential such as production ramp-up and FSD to catch up with its current valuations.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q3: Watch Out For $175 Entry Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q3: Watch Out For $175 Entry Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-12 06:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545981-tesla-tsla-watch-out-for-entry-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBased on the price movements caused by its 2022 Q3 delivery and AI day, I foresee Tesla stock a $175-$250 trading window in the near future (till the Q4 delivery).This article will detail my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545981-tesla-tsla-watch-out-for-entry-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545981-tesla-tsla-watch-out-for-entry-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274509950","content_text":"SummaryBased on the price movements caused by its 2022 Q3 delivery and AI day, I foresee Tesla stock a $175-$250 trading window in the near future (till the Q4 delivery).This article will detail my analysis of these trigger points so investors can better prepare for its incoming Q3 earnings report.I see more downside than upside in the near term.Although a $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding.peerapong muangjan/iStock via Getty ImagesThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) experienced its largest one-day selloff recently after the company reported Q3 deliveries that missed consensus expectations. Given the magnitude of such price movements, my view is that the market has already fully bakedits incoming Q3 earnings report (scheduled on Oct. 19, 2022) into the current prices. And as such, I foresee the stock to be range bound between $175 and $250 in the near future. I do not see major catalysts to break this range till its Q4 delivery report.This article will detail my analysis of these trigger points so investors can better prepare. Overall, I see more downside (about 22%) than upside (about 12%) in the near term. Although a $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding.For swing traders, fundamental valuation metrics may be misleading for extremely volatile stocks like TSLA. It is a well-known fact, for such stocks, bottom valuation can occur at the bottom of their near-term cycle and vice versa. Hence, swing traders might find the first chart below more helpful. The stock is currently 46.6% off its recent high. And in the past since 2017, the stock has suffered corrections as large as this current only 3 times: in 2019, 2020, and most recently in 2022. As you can see, in each case, the stock staged a rapid rebound shortly afterward. And the $175 price, if reached due to jitter caused by its Q3 earnings report, would represent a 57% decline off its recent peak, closest to the largest retraction of 60% only during the COVID fire sale.The remainder of this article is more oriented toward long-term holders. A price of $175 would translate into an FW EV/EBITDA of 26.4x, and next, you will see why such an entry valuation creates favorable returns potential in the long term.Seeking Alpha dataAuthor based on Yahoo dataLong-term growth potential intactI view the Q3 delivery miss only as a short-term speed bump. To wit, Tesla produced 365,923 vehicles in Q3 and delivered 343,830. These numbers still represent remarkable growth (in the range of 40-50% YOY growth and the range of 30-40% QoQ). However, these numbers missed consensus estimates for deliveries by about 4%.First, TSLA still enjoys capital allocation flexibility and is still investing aggressively toward growth. The following chart provides a summary of TSLA maintenance and growth capital spending in the recent past since Jan 2020. Its total depreciation and amortization (\"TDA\") are $3.4B. Its CAPEX expenditures are at $7.15B, exceeding its total TDA by $3.75B. In relative terms, its CAPEX expenditures are more than 2x of its TDA.Seeking Alpha dataAnd hence, a large part of its CAPEX spending is toward growth CAPEX. If we approximate its maintenance CAPEX by the TDA, then it has been on average $2.57B since 2020 as seen from the top panel above. And its total CAPEX has been on average $4.76B. The difference of $2.19B can then be used to approximate the amount of growth CAPEX it has been reinvesting. In other words, the growth CAPEX is on average about 46% of the total CAPEX spending in recent years. As a result, its owners' earnings (\"OE\") are much higher than its accounting EPS because the growth CAPEX should be added back to its owners' earnings, as shown in the chart below.The chart below shows TSLA's true economic earnings compared to its accounting EPS using Greenwald's method as detailed in my earlier article or his book entitled Value Investing. As seen, TSLA's OE has systematically exceeded its accounting EPS and also its FCF (free cash flow) since 2018. As of 2021, its OE is about $9 per share compared to an accounting EPS of only ~$2 per share.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataNon-linear growth drivers down the roadLooking further out, there are longer-term growth drivers that are highly nonlinear. Currently, TSLA is still a \"car\" company that derives the bulk of its income from manufacturing and selling cars (84.7% of its total revenue as seen in the chart below).However, its other segments, the non-manufacturing segments, are growing rapidly. As a notable example, its automotive services now represent 7.06% of its total revenue. With its FSD potential, such services can break all the limitations of hardware manufacturing. It could become totally scalable just like a software platform, and as a result, enjoys higher-order nonlinear growth. As detailed in my earlier article, a few key factors to consider:FSD can lead to more miles driven. For example, researchers at the Institute of Transportationat the University of California began to show that automated or semi-automated vehicles like those TSLA makes, when there are enough of them in operation, can lead to increased vehicle miles traveled (\"VMT\").The FSD technology becomes more valuable when more people use it. In the 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (Thursday, August 4, 2022), Musk believes that Tesla's cumulative production of vehicles will reach 100 million. Meanwhile, its autonomous driving technology is maturing and scaling up rapidly. As of Q2-2022, over 100,000 Tesla drivers in North America had access to Full Self-Driving Beta. And the accumulated miles driven by Full Self-Driving had been expanding exponentially and reached 35 million miles so far.The factors create new strategies for TSLA to monetize in areas like service sales (service income will be proportional to VMT), insurance income (which would be also proportional to VMT but in a different paradigm with large-scale FSD deployment), and also autonomous driving functions and software.BofA data and TSLA presentationThe near-term headwindsAlthough in the near term, there is no shortage of headwinds to keep the stock price range bound as mentioned above. And the Q3 delivery miss is a symptom of these ongoing headwinds. These headwinds include limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for a large part of 1H 2022 and potential disruptions for the rest of the year also. The company still faces challenges associated with ongoing supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages. At the same, other traditional automakers are investing aggressively in their EV development too and competing fiercely for market share. Also, EV adoption is currently driven primarily by government regulations and subsidies, and these regulations and subsidies could change with short notice.These uncertainties are encapsulated in the large variance in the consensus estimates. A total of 31 analysts provided earnings revisions for the last 3 months. And the revisions are close to a perfect split between Up Revisions and Down Revisions. A total of 18 analysts submitted an up revision and 13 a down revision. The revised estimates vary widely too. Even for 2022, the lower end of the consensus EPS is $3.75 and the high end is $6.53, a variance of 74%. And the variance widens further to 112% for 2023.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataThe $175-250 trading range againAt its current price level, its valuation is still elevated despite the recent correction. To wit, it is currently valued at around 10.2x EV/sales ratio and 47.8x EV/EBITDA. On an FW basis, the multiples are a bit lower but it is at around 8.3x EV/sales ratio and 33.6x EV/EBITDA. It is expensive both in relative terms and absolute terms in my mind. As a reference point, the overall market is valued at about 3.5x EV/sales and 16x EV/EBITDA. On an absolute scale, leading institutions like BofA Global Research model its near-term valuation around 13x EV/Sales and 55x EV/EBITDA. I think these multiples are way too optimistic given the near-term headwinds and the historical volatility.My target valuations are provided in the second chart below. As seen, I am essentially assuming ½ of the valuation provided by BofA in the near term. The lower bound of my price range corresponds to 6.5x FW EV/sales ratio and 26.4x EV/EBITDA. The estimates were made using financial data provided by SA as summarized in the lower part of the table.Seeking Alpha dataAuthor based on Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtsTo reiterate, I see Tesla stock price oscillating in a relatively narrow range of $175-$250 trading range till the Q4 delivery report. With the recent large price movements, the market has baked in the Q3 earnings report already. Overall, I see more downside in the near term than upside due to the near-term headwinds. Its Q3 delivery miss is a symptom of these headwinds, including the lingering effects from its Shanghai factor shutdown, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, et al.While there might be some interesting opportunities for both swing traders and long-term investors, the $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding. A price of $175 would represent a 57% decline off its recent peak, closest to the largest retraction of 60% only during the COVID firesale. For long-term-oriented investors, a price of $175 would translate into a 26.4x EV/EBITDA, leaving a large margin of safety. It is about ½ of the multiples used by leading institutes such as BofA (55x) and close to its multi-year bottom of 23.6x observed in early 2020. Such a margin of safety shortens the timeframe for its nonlinear growth potential such as production ramp-up and FSD to catch up with its current valuations.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913845995,"gmtCreate":1663975514117,"gmtModify":1676537371839,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913845995","repostId":"2269458235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269458235","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663944991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269458235?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 22:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Job Listings Detail Elon Musk’s Vision for Thousands of Humanoid Robots Within Our Factories","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269458235","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Tesla (TSLA) job postings reveal the electric vehicle maker is doubling down on humanoid robots.Reut","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (TSLA) job postings reveal the electric vehicle maker is doubling down on humanoid robots.</p><p>Reuters recently reported the company is ramping up ambitious plans to develop the Tesla Bot, also known as Optimus, with internal meetings and hiring for about 20 positions including software and firmware engineers, deep learning scientists, actuator technicians, and internships.</p><p>&#34;Tesla is on a path to build humanoid bi-pedal robots at scale to automate repetitive and boring tasks,&#34; one job posting for a mechatronics technician stated. &#34;Most importantly, you will see your work repeatedly shipped to and utilized by thousands of Humanoid Robots within our factories.&#34;</p><p>Tesla posted most of the jobs under its Autopilot division, which is simultaneously working to deploy full self-driving capabilities for vehicles.</p><p>Elon Musk tweeted the Autopilot team has &#34;end of month deadlines&#34; for both the Tesla Bot and Autopark projects. Earlier in the summer, Musk teased that a prototype of the robot could be unveiled at Tesla&#39;s AI Day on Sept. 30.</p><blockquote>Note, Autopilot/AI team is also working on Optimus and (actually smart) summon/autopark, which have end of month deadlines</blockquote><p>Musk&#39;s vision for the five-foot-eight, 125-pound Optimus extends beyond the production lines of Tesla factories. He ultimately sees an army of robots tasked with household chores and care work in millions of households.</p><p>&#34;This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time,&#34; Musk said on an earnings call in January.</p><p>Some on Wall Street, however, are skeptical.</p><p>Investors and Tesla enthusiasts are still waiting on the Cybertruck, due out in 2023 after several delays, as well as the company&#39;s promise of fully autonomous vehicles. The EV maker expanded its Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta pilot to 160,000 Tesla owners as it scales its autonomous software program, though some have said the current $15,000 price tag isn&#39;t worth its current capabilities.</p><p>Musk has also touted an automated robotaxi concept, which is slated to be announced in 2023 and enter production produced in 2024.</p><p>And with deploying robots at scale, there are other challenges in the way of deployment.</p><p>A number of companies have sought to develop humanoid robots — Hyundai&#39;s Boston Dynamics, Honda, GM and NASA, Ford, Softbank, and others — though few projects have gotten off the ground.</p><p>According to Reuters, the robots have had trouble overcoming unexpected situations and completing unscripted tasks, much like self-driving cars.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Job Listings Detail Elon Musk’s Vision for Thousands of Humanoid Robots Within Our Factories</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Job Listings Detail Elon Musk’s Vision for Thousands of Humanoid Robots Within Our Factories\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-23 22:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-job-listings-elon-musk-thousands-of-humanoid-robots-135514544.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) job postings reveal the electric vehicle maker is doubling down on humanoid robots.Reuters recently reported the company is ramping up ambitious plans to develop the Tesla Bot, also known...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-job-listings-elon-musk-thousands-of-humanoid-robots-135514544.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-job-listings-elon-musk-thousands-of-humanoid-robots-135514544.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269458235","content_text":"Tesla (TSLA) job postings reveal the electric vehicle maker is doubling down on humanoid robots.Reuters recently reported the company is ramping up ambitious plans to develop the Tesla Bot, also known as Optimus, with internal meetings and hiring for about 20 positions including software and firmware engineers, deep learning scientists, actuator technicians, and internships.\"Tesla is on a path to build humanoid bi-pedal robots at scale to automate repetitive and boring tasks,\" one job posting for a mechatronics technician stated. \"Most importantly, you will see your work repeatedly shipped to and utilized by thousands of Humanoid Robots within our factories.\"Tesla posted most of the jobs under its Autopilot division, which is simultaneously working to deploy full self-driving capabilities for vehicles.Elon Musk tweeted the Autopilot team has \"end of month deadlines\" for both the Tesla Bot and Autopark projects. Earlier in the summer, Musk teased that a prototype of the robot could be unveiled at Tesla's AI Day on Sept. 30.Note, Autopilot/AI team is also working on Optimus and (actually smart) summon/autopark, which have end of month deadlinesMusk's vision for the five-foot-eight, 125-pound Optimus extends beyond the production lines of Tesla factories. He ultimately sees an army of robots tasked with household chores and care work in millions of households.\"This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time,\" Musk said on an earnings call in January.Some on Wall Street, however, are skeptical.Investors and Tesla enthusiasts are still waiting on the Cybertruck, due out in 2023 after several delays, as well as the company's promise of fully autonomous vehicles. The EV maker expanded its Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta pilot to 160,000 Tesla owners as it scales its autonomous software program, though some have said the current $15,000 price tag isn't worth its current capabilities.Musk has also touted an automated robotaxi concept, which is slated to be announced in 2023 and enter production produced in 2024.And with deploying robots at scale, there are other challenges in the way of deployment.A number of companies have sought to develop humanoid robots — Hyundai's Boston Dynamics, Honda, GM and NASA, Ford, Softbank, and others — though few projects have gotten off the ground.According to Reuters, the robots have had trouble overcoming unexpected situations and completing unscripted tasks, much like self-driving cars.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987780611,"gmtCreate":1667994400433,"gmtModify":1676537995902,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987780611","repostId":"1157692624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157692624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668008277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157692624?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-09 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157692624","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>TSLA is trading at 12-month lows.</li><li>Rising interest rates, Q3&#39;s revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.</li><li>The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.</li><li>The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.</li><li>The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.</li></ul><p>Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed96ee922a9178151466be6bb913196e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.</p><p>Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.</p><p>The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddbc4100fa6280bf6fcc0ef8b86d03a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Trailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.</p><p>Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.</p><p>I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&amp;P 500 (not including dividends).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c08822d1f3055ab12bf6e9e8a7ea386\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Previous analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&amp;P 500 above.</p><p>For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.</p><p>With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.</p><p><b>Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>ETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c8d0e04e8918e25b7385e2bad7c26\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"855\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797d6141699490e50d24fb2784e632e1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.</p><p><b>Market-Implied Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>I have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.</p><p>The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f689bc8494e22307e8401f8fcc1ac2\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.</p><p>To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67eb2da8e00a45afb6a60092265c1c8c\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.</p><p>Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f17528781a49f411c10295d132d77cf\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Tesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEven At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157692624","content_text":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).Seeking Alpha12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.ETradeTrailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&P 500 (not including dividends).Seeking AlphaPrevious analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&P 500 above.For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLAETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).ETradeWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.Seeking AlphaWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.Market-Implied Outlook for TSLAI have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.SummaryTesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966640861,"gmtCreate":1669524969853,"gmtModify":1676538204971,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966640861","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9900226938,"gmtCreate":1658716853424,"gmtModify":1676536196829,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9900226938","repostId":"1127627798","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127627798","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658384899,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127627798?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 14:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Q2 Earnings Preview: What to Look For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127627798","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Google parent Alphabet is slated to report its second-quarter 2022 results after the market close on","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Google parent Alphabet is slated to report its second-quarter 2022 results after the market close on Tuesday, July 26.</p><h2>Previous Quarter Review</h2><p>Google’s Q1 revenue is up 23% from $55.3 billion, with operating income at $20.09 billion and net income of $16.44 billion for this quarter (versus $17.93 billion a year ago). </p><p>YouTube ad revenue was $6.87 billion (versus $6 billion a year ago), while Cloud reported $5.82 billion (compared to $4.05 billion in Q1 2021).</p><h2>Stock Split</h2><p>Alphabet&#39;s stock split reduced its price per share from $2,235.55 to $111.77 at the start of trading on July 18.</p><p>The split adds no real value to the company, but it does change the way earnings are calculated.</p><p>Alphabet is an incredibly strong company and is a great value right now.</p><p>Earlier this year, Alphabet announced plans to conduct a 20-for-1 stock split. It officially took effect at the market close on Friday, and Monday is the first day of trading with its new, shrunken share price.</p><p>When a company creates a lot of value over the long term, its share price typically generates high returns. In Alphabet&#39;s case, its stock had risen to $2,235.55, which made it a little expensive for investors who were only investing small amounts of money.</p><h2>Halt Hiring</h2><p>Google reportedly announced a hiring pause on July 20, stating it will stop hiring for two weeks, not long after announcing it would slow the pace of hiring.</p><p>Last week the company said it would be reducing the pace of hiring for the rest of the year. However, according to an article from The Information, they have decided to implement a pause.</p><h2>Analyst Opinions</h2><p>Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju sees a profit of $5.72 a share in calendar 2022, and $6.31 next year, down from his previous forecast of $5.92 this year and $7.10 next year. Ju cuts his target on Alphabet shares to $143, from $170.</p><p>“We decrease our forecasts for Google’s advertising businesses as we receive marketer feedback of declining budgets owing to macro uncertainty,” Ju writes. “While the extent of ad revenue compression for Q3 2022 and beyond remains unknown, it is clear marketers are showing signs of defensive behavior.”</p><p>But he notes that some ad dollars are shifting to Google search as advertisers seek higher return on investment.</p><p>Cowen analyst John Blackledge cut his Alphabet target to $3,000, from $3,200. He said that search advertising continues to see healthy demand, but that the numbers will come against “historically tough” comparisons. He said he sees some impact on the company’s YouTube unit from increased competition from TikTok.</p><p>Blackledge said his same agency source reported 18% year over year growth in spending on Google search ads, which is better than Meta’s situation, but slower than the 23% growth reported in the first quarter. He is now forecasting revenue growth for “search and other” advertising of 14.5% in the quarter, down from 16% previously.</p><h2>Consensus Estimate</h2><p>This internet search leader is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.30 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -95.2%.</p><p>Revenues are expected to be $58.1 billion, up 14% from the year-ago quarter.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Q2 Earnings Preview: What to Look For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Q2 Earnings Preview: What to Look For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-21 14:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Google parent Alphabet is slated to report its second-quarter 2022 results after the market close on Tuesday, July 26.</p><h2>Previous Quarter Review</h2><p>Google’s Q1 revenue is up 23% from $55.3 billion, with operating income at $20.09 billion and net income of $16.44 billion for this quarter (versus $17.93 billion a year ago). </p><p>YouTube ad revenue was $6.87 billion (versus $6 billion a year ago), while Cloud reported $5.82 billion (compared to $4.05 billion in Q1 2021).</p><h2>Stock Split</h2><p>Alphabet&#39;s stock split reduced its price per share from $2,235.55 to $111.77 at the start of trading on July 18.</p><p>The split adds no real value to the company, but it does change the way earnings are calculated.</p><p>Alphabet is an incredibly strong company and is a great value right now.</p><p>Earlier this year, Alphabet announced plans to conduct a 20-for-1 stock split. It officially took effect at the market close on Friday, and Monday is the first day of trading with its new, shrunken share price.</p><p>When a company creates a lot of value over the long term, its share price typically generates high returns. In Alphabet&#39;s case, its stock had risen to $2,235.55, which made it a little expensive for investors who were only investing small amounts of money.</p><h2>Halt Hiring</h2><p>Google reportedly announced a hiring pause on July 20, stating it will stop hiring for two weeks, not long after announcing it would slow the pace of hiring.</p><p>Last week the company said it would be reducing the pace of hiring for the rest of the year. However, according to an article from The Information, they have decided to implement a pause.</p><h2>Analyst Opinions</h2><p>Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju sees a profit of $5.72 a share in calendar 2022, and $6.31 next year, down from his previous forecast of $5.92 this year and $7.10 next year. Ju cuts his target on Alphabet shares to $143, from $170.</p><p>“We decrease our forecasts for Google’s advertising businesses as we receive marketer feedback of declining budgets owing to macro uncertainty,” Ju writes. “While the extent of ad revenue compression for Q3 2022 and beyond remains unknown, it is clear marketers are showing signs of defensive behavior.”</p><p>But he notes that some ad dollars are shifting to Google search as advertisers seek higher return on investment.</p><p>Cowen analyst John Blackledge cut his Alphabet target to $3,000, from $3,200. He said that search advertising continues to see healthy demand, but that the numbers will come against “historically tough” comparisons. He said he sees some impact on the company’s YouTube unit from increased competition from TikTok.</p><p>Blackledge said his same agency source reported 18% year over year growth in spending on Google search ads, which is better than Meta’s situation, but slower than the 23% growth reported in the first quarter. He is now forecasting revenue growth for “search and other” advertising of 14.5% in the quarter, down from 16% previously.</p><h2>Consensus Estimate</h2><p>This internet search leader is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.30 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -95.2%.</p><p>Revenues are expected to be $58.1 billion, up 14% from the year-ago quarter.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127627798","content_text":"Google parent Alphabet is slated to report its second-quarter 2022 results after the market close on Tuesday, July 26.Previous Quarter ReviewGoogle’s Q1 revenue is up 23% from $55.3 billion, with operating income at $20.09 billion and net income of $16.44 billion for this quarter (versus $17.93 billion a year ago). YouTube ad revenue was $6.87 billion (versus $6 billion a year ago), while Cloud reported $5.82 billion (compared to $4.05 billion in Q1 2021).Stock SplitAlphabet's stock split reduced its price per share from $2,235.55 to $111.77 at the start of trading on July 18.The split adds no real value to the company, but it does change the way earnings are calculated.Alphabet is an incredibly strong company and is a great value right now.Earlier this year, Alphabet announced plans to conduct a 20-for-1 stock split. It officially took effect at the market close on Friday, and Monday is the first day of trading with its new, shrunken share price.When a company creates a lot of value over the long term, its share price typically generates high returns. In Alphabet's case, its stock had risen to $2,235.55, which made it a little expensive for investors who were only investing small amounts of money.Halt HiringGoogle reportedly announced a hiring pause on July 20, stating it will stop hiring for two weeks, not long after announcing it would slow the pace of hiring.Last week the company said it would be reducing the pace of hiring for the rest of the year. However, according to an article from The Information, they have decided to implement a pause.Analyst OpinionsCredit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju sees a profit of $5.72 a share in calendar 2022, and $6.31 next year, down from his previous forecast of $5.92 this year and $7.10 next year. Ju cuts his target on Alphabet shares to $143, from $170.“We decrease our forecasts for Google’s advertising businesses as we receive marketer feedback of declining budgets owing to macro uncertainty,” Ju writes. “While the extent of ad revenue compression for Q3 2022 and beyond remains unknown, it is clear marketers are showing signs of defensive behavior.”But he notes that some ad dollars are shifting to Google search as advertisers seek higher return on investment.Cowen analyst John Blackledge cut his Alphabet target to $3,000, from $3,200. He said that search advertising continues to see healthy demand, but that the numbers will come against “historically tough” comparisons. He said he sees some impact on the company’s YouTube unit from increased competition from TikTok.Blackledge said his same agency source reported 18% year over year growth in spending on Google search ads, which is better than Meta’s situation, but slower than the 23% growth reported in the first quarter. He is now forecasting revenue growth for “search and other” advertising of 14.5% in the quarter, down from 16% previously.Consensus EstimateThis internet search leader is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.30 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -95.2%.Revenues are expected to be $58.1 billion, up 14% from the year-ago quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941228916,"gmtCreate":1680300967635,"gmtModify":1680300971264,"author":{"id":"4109504542406510","authorId":"4109504542406510","name":"Pepermintpat","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0804feddbf156f8e808003b7ca831628","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109504542406510","authorIdStr":"4109504542406510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great opportunities&nbsp;in a decade !","listText":"Great opportunities&nbsp;in a decade !","text":"Great opportunities in a decade !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941228916","repostId":"2323795936","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}