Joey Z personal page - To The Moon

Joey Z

Joey Z

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03-19

🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

03-12

🙏🏼

03-02

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$

2023-12-19

🙏🏼

2023-09-14

🙏🏼

2023-09-07

🙏🏼

2023-09-06

Tesla Motors (TSLA) large buy order filled 259K shares at 256.49. Follow the money?

2023-08-31

🙏🏼

2023-08-30

🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

2023-08-22

🤘🏼

2023-03-24

I guess "keeping markets and companies honest" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.

What Is Short Selling, and Who Is Hindenburg Research?

2023-03-11

Good read. Cheers.

Why Coinbase Global Stock Plummeted by 8% Friday

2023-03-10

All the best! 🧐

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-02-28

Yepp. Stacking chips 😉

AMD: Don't Miss Out On The Opportunity

2023-02-22

What a time of the market to be this! 😂😉

2023-02-20

Yepp.

Historic Buying Opportunity: Why Alphabet Is a No-Brainer Stock

2023-02-09

Good read.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-02-09

Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-02-07

Agree with the call.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-01-16

Agree.

Amazon Stock 2023 Forecast: A Significant Trend Overlooked

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🏼","listText":"🙏🏼","text":"🙏🏼","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44a8078848c35a9156cc5c7785bb7524","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/217193804685472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216756582592752,"gmtCreate":1693952611533,"gmtModify":1693952617598,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla Motors (TSLA) large buy order filled 259K shares at 256.49. Follow the money?","listText":"Tesla Motors (TSLA) large buy order filled 259K shares at 256.49. Follow the money?","text":"Tesla Motors (TSLA) large buy order filled 259K shares at 256.49. Follow the money?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216756582592752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":214796429234328,"gmtCreate":1693477423291,"gmtModify":1693477428831,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🏼","listText":"🙏🏼","text":"🙏🏼","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe973a60dad1f3199a95d7a4be19acbd","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/214796429234328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":214272763625680,"gmtCreate":1693352222311,"gmtModify":1693352227347,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼","listText":"🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼","text":"🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1f69d281707353964e8604ba03b5fd76","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/214272763625680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":211606423507144,"gmtCreate":1692692613911,"gmtModify":1692692619866,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤘🏼","listText":"🤘🏼","text":"🤘🏼","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b33a571b18d11f44d0bbd2dba0a135c7","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211606423507144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943467583,"gmtCreate":1679642695642,"gmtModify":1679642700319,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I guess \"keeping&nbsp;markets and companies honest\" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.","listText":"I guess \"keeping&nbsp;markets and companies honest\" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.","text":"I guess \"keeping markets and companies honest\" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943467583","repostId":"1184527792","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184527792","pubTimestamp":1679639887,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184527792?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-24 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Is Short Selling, and Who Is Hindenburg Research?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184527792","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"If you buy low and sell high, chances are you’ll be richer and everybody will be happy. Sell low aft","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If you buy low and sell high, chances are you’ll be richer and everybody will be happy. Sell low after borrowing high — what’s known as short selling — and you may be rich, but odds are that quite a few people will be displeased. Critics say that short sellers distort the market and that their practices can blur into market manipulation. “Shorts” say they’re keeping markets and companies honest. A series of negative reports from a short-selling firm, Hindenburg Research, have added fuel to the fire, as it targeted companies affiliated with Gautam Adani, one of Asia’s richest men, and by Jack Dorsey, one of the founders of Twitter.</p><p><b>1. How does short selling work?</b></p><p>Short sellers borrow shares, sell them, buy them back at a lower price and profit from the difference — unless the stock rises. Then they could lose money instead.</p><p><b>2. Who are the short sellers?</b></p><p>Most shorting is done by hedge funds and institutional investors to cushion their investments against falling stock prices or to bet that shares have risen too high. So-called activist shorts like Hindenburg, on the other hand, research companies to find targets that they allege have dodgy business or accounting practices, spread the word (sometimes anonymously) and, if all goes as planned, send the shares lower. Although activist shorts have been calling out companies for decades, their numbers have swelled with the rise of social media as a platform for disseminating theories and analysis.</p><p><b>3. What’s an example of short selling?</b></p><p>On March 23, Hindenburg Research took aim at Block Inc., the digital payments company co-founded by Dorsey that used to be called Square Inc. The activist firm said it was betting against the stock and published a report saying that Block’s Cash App was probably helping fraudsters take advantage of US government stimulus programs during the height of the Covid pandemic. It also alleged that Block was overstating how many people use Cash App and panned its $29 billion purchase of Afterpay, an Australian financial-technology company. The report sent Block shares tumbling. Block didn’t respond to requests for comment after Hindenburg published its report.</p><p><b>4. Is short selling illegal?</b></p><p>It’s legal in most major stock markets. What is banned either partially or fully in several markets is so-called naked short selling— betting on a stock’s decline without having first borrowed the shares. Even so, many markets issue temporary restrictions during periods of market turmoil — in part because critics say short sellers can transform downturns into full-blown panics. The US cracked down on short selling during the Great Depression and joined the likes of the UK, Germany and Japan in limiting short selling or banning it during the financial crisis that erupted in 2008. China’s regulator blamed “malicious” short selling in part for a stock market crash in 2015, placing limits on the practice as well as arresting traders. During the volatility that accompanied the onset of the pandemic in 2020, bans were imposed for several months in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Austria and South Korea, while the European Securities and Markets Authority ordered traders to disclose more information about short sales.</p><p><b>5. Why is activist shorting especially controversial?</b></p><p>Opponents point to the ability of shorts to hoodwink investors by spreading false rumors before exiting a trade, a technique known as “short and distort.” Defenders say the potential for abuse shouldn’t discredit all shorts any more than “pump and dump” schemes disgrace all investors who whip up interest in a stock to push it higher and then sell it. Short sellers say they are skeptics who alert investors to bouts of market euphoria, identifying mispricing or deception that analysts, auditors and investors overlook. Many authorities dislike short selling — a former head of the New York Stock Exchange described the practice as “icky and un-American.”</p><p><b>6. What is Hindenburg Research?</b></p><p>Hindenburg, founded by short-seller Nathan Anderson, describes itself as a forensic-research outfit operating with its own capital. But it follows the standard procedure for a so-called activist short: After researching a potential target, Hindenburg places a bet that the stock will decline, then trumpets its research publicly, using social media to get the message out. Anderson’s firm first attracted Wall Street’s attention in 2020 and 2021 for raising serious questions about electric-vehicle makersNikola Corp.andLordstown Motors Corp. It gained more prominence in February when it issued a 100-page report accusing the Indian conglomerate Adani Group of using a web of companies in tax havens to inflate revenue and stock prices, even as debt piled up. Adanisaidthe claims were baseless and called them a “calculated attack on India.”</p><p><b>7. Is short selling new?</b></p><p>Not at all. Dutch traders were shorting as long ago as the 1600s, including during the tulip bubble. Napoleon labeled short sellers of government securities “treasonous.” Short selling stocks — as opposed to tulips — is particularly challenging because equity markets have a long-term track record of moving up rather than down. Still, it can be done. Jesse Livermore, known as the “King of the Bears,” made a fortune shorting railroad operator Union Pacific shortly before the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The collapse of Enron Corp. in 2001 marked a notable scalp for shorts including Jim Chanos, who had been among the first to question its accounting. Muddy Waters’ Carson Block (no relation to Block Inc.) raised the profile of the new breed of activist shorts by taking aim at under-the-radar Chinese companies listed in North America. The practice can be perilous: Block said he stopped shorting Chinese companies for a time because “tattooed gangsters” came looking for him.</p><p>The Reference Shelf</p><ul><li>Michael Lewis’s definitive take on the financial crisis,“The Big Short,”is also a movie starring Christian Bale, Steve Carrell and Brad Pitt.</li><li>A 2020 Bloomberg article says short sellers madeover $50 billionduring the recent coronavirus sell-off, and another on a$14 billionbet by Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund.</li><li>A 2014 study,“The Invisible Hand of Short Selling,”found short sellers have a disciplining effect on various types of corporate earnings management.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Is Short Selling, and Who Is Hindenburg Research?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Is Short Selling, and Who Is Hindenburg Research?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-24 14:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-23/what-is-short-selling-hindenburg-stock-bets-explained><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you buy low and sell high, chances are you’ll be richer and everybody will be happy. Sell low after borrowing high — what’s known as short selling — and you may be rich, but odds are that quite a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-23/what-is-short-selling-hindenburg-stock-bets-explained\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-23/what-is-short-selling-hindenburg-stock-bets-explained","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184527792","content_text":"If you buy low and sell high, chances are you’ll be richer and everybody will be happy. Sell low after borrowing high — what’s known as short selling — and you may be rich, but odds are that quite a few people will be displeased. Critics say that short sellers distort the market and that their practices can blur into market manipulation. “Shorts” say they’re keeping markets and companies honest. A series of negative reports from a short-selling firm, Hindenburg Research, have added fuel to the fire, as it targeted companies affiliated with Gautam Adani, one of Asia’s richest men, and by Jack Dorsey, one of the founders of Twitter.1. How does short selling work?Short sellers borrow shares, sell them, buy them back at a lower price and profit from the difference — unless the stock rises. Then they could lose money instead.2. Who are the short sellers?Most shorting is done by hedge funds and institutional investors to cushion their investments against falling stock prices or to bet that shares have risen too high. So-called activist shorts like Hindenburg, on the other hand, research companies to find targets that they allege have dodgy business or accounting practices, spread the word (sometimes anonymously) and, if all goes as planned, send the shares lower. Although activist shorts have been calling out companies for decades, their numbers have swelled with the rise of social media as a platform for disseminating theories and analysis.3. What’s an example of short selling?On March 23, Hindenburg Research took aim at Block Inc., the digital payments company co-founded by Dorsey that used to be called Square Inc. The activist firm said it was betting against the stock and published a report saying that Block’s Cash App was probably helping fraudsters take advantage of US government stimulus programs during the height of the Covid pandemic. It also alleged that Block was overstating how many people use Cash App and panned its $29 billion purchase of Afterpay, an Australian financial-technology company. The report sent Block shares tumbling. Block didn’t respond to requests for comment after Hindenburg published its report.4. Is short selling illegal?It’s legal in most major stock markets. What is banned either partially or fully in several markets is so-called naked short selling— betting on a stock’s decline without having first borrowed the shares. Even so, many markets issue temporary restrictions during periods of market turmoil — in part because critics say short sellers can transform downturns into full-blown panics. The US cracked down on short selling during the Great Depression and joined the likes of the UK, Germany and Japan in limiting short selling or banning it during the financial crisis that erupted in 2008. China’s regulator blamed “malicious” short selling in part for a stock market crash in 2015, placing limits on the practice as well as arresting traders. During the volatility that accompanied the onset of the pandemic in 2020, bans were imposed for several months in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Austria and South Korea, while the European Securities and Markets Authority ordered traders to disclose more information about short sales.5. Why is activist shorting especially controversial?Opponents point to the ability of shorts to hoodwink investors by spreading false rumors before exiting a trade, a technique known as “short and distort.” Defenders say the potential for abuse shouldn’t discredit all shorts any more than “pump and dump” schemes disgrace all investors who whip up interest in a stock to push it higher and then sell it. Short sellers say they are skeptics who alert investors to bouts of market euphoria, identifying mispricing or deception that analysts, auditors and investors overlook. Many authorities dislike short selling — a former head of the New York Stock Exchange described the practice as “icky and un-American.”6. What is Hindenburg Research?Hindenburg, founded by short-seller Nathan Anderson, describes itself as a forensic-research outfit operating with its own capital. But it follows the standard procedure for a so-called activist short: After researching a potential target, Hindenburg places a bet that the stock will decline, then trumpets its research publicly, using social media to get the message out. Anderson’s firm first attracted Wall Street’s attention in 2020 and 2021 for raising serious questions about electric-vehicle makersNikola Corp.andLordstown Motors Corp. It gained more prominence in February when it issued a 100-page report accusing the Indian conglomerate Adani Group of using a web of companies in tax havens to inflate revenue and stock prices, even as debt piled up. Adanisaidthe claims were baseless and called them a “calculated attack on India.”7. Is short selling new?Not at all. Dutch traders were shorting as long ago as the 1600s, including during the tulip bubble. Napoleon labeled short sellers of government securities “treasonous.” Short selling stocks — as opposed to tulips — is particularly challenging because equity markets have a long-term track record of moving up rather than down. Still, it can be done. Jesse Livermore, known as the “King of the Bears,” made a fortune shorting railroad operator Union Pacific shortly before the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The collapse of Enron Corp. in 2001 marked a notable scalp for shorts including Jim Chanos, who had been among the first to question its accounting. Muddy Waters’ Carson Block (no relation to Block Inc.) raised the profile of the new breed of activist shorts by taking aim at under-the-radar Chinese companies listed in North America. The practice can be perilous: Block said he stopped shorting Chinese companies for a time because “tattooed gangsters” came looking for him.The Reference ShelfMichael Lewis’s definitive take on the financial crisis,“The Big Short,”is also a movie starring Christian Bale, Steve Carrell and Brad Pitt.A 2020 Bloomberg article says short sellers madeover $50 billionduring the recent coronavirus sell-off, and another on a$14 billionbet by Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund.A 2014 study,“The Invisible Hand of Short Selling,”found short sellers have a disciplining effect on various types of corporate earnings management.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949854271,"gmtCreate":1678518140594,"gmtModify":1678518144670,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read. Cheers.","listText":"Good read. Cheers.","text":"Good read. Cheers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949854271","repostId":"2318756893","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2318756893","pubTimestamp":1678516616,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2318756893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-11 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Coinbase Global Stock Plummeted by 8% Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2318756893","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's guilt by association time in the market following the Silicon Valley Bank swoon.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>What happened</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global </a> stock fell 8% on Friday, and it wasn&#39;t hard to figure out why. Any company associated with the now-collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and its parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">SVB Financial </a> took hard blows in the market today. Coinbase was a Silicon Valley Bank client back in the day, and the two companies&#39; relationship went a little deeper at one point.</p><h2>So what</h2><p>So to some degree it was understandable that investors would trade out of Coinbase. Panic was in the air Friday in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s disintegration and subsequent receivership by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The fallout was swift and sharp, and numerous companies were damaged by it.</p><p>Coinbase wasn&#39;t only a SVB client; it was also one of that company&#39;s potential shareholdings. In 2014, when cryptocurrency projects and crypto-affiliated businesses were having a tough time securing financing from traditional sources, Coinbase gave a stock warrant to Silicon Valley Bank. Apparently, this was part of the two companies&#39; agreement under which Coinbase could utilize the bank&#39;s services.</p><p>The warrant gave Silicon Valley Bank the right to purchase over 400,000 shares of Coinbase&#39;s class B common stock at a price just over $1 apiece. The warrant was set to expire in June 2024. Its fate isn&#39;t entirely clear, but in SVB&#39;s latest 10K annual report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company revealed that in 2021 it reaped $116 million in gains &#34;related to Coinbase&#39;s direct listing.&#34;</p><p>Coinbase went public via such a method in April 2021.</p><h2>Now what</h2><p>Investors shouldn&#39;t be swayed on Coinbase one way or another due to the SVB association. The two companies were tied fairly closely together at one point, but seem to have drifted far apart. Since the SVB contagion appears to be quite limited with Coinbase -- at least, as far as we know now -- the exchange operator&#39;s stock should be judged more on its own fundamentals and potential.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Coinbase Global Stock Plummeted by 8% Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Coinbase Global Stock Plummeted by 8% Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-11 14:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/10/why-coinbase-global-stock-plummeted-by-8-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happenedCoinbase Global  stock fell 8% on Friday, and it wasn't hard to figure out why. Any company associated with the now-collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and its parent SVB Financial  took hard ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/10/why-coinbase-global-stock-plummeted-by-8-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/10/why-coinbase-global-stock-plummeted-by-8-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318756893","content_text":"What happenedCoinbase Global  stock fell 8% on Friday, and it wasn't hard to figure out why. Any company associated with the now-collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and its parent SVB Financial  took hard blows in the market today. Coinbase was a Silicon Valley Bank client back in the day, and the two companies' relationship went a little deeper at one point.So whatSo to some degree it was understandable that investors would trade out of Coinbase. Panic was in the air Friday in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's disintegration and subsequent receivership by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The fallout was swift and sharp, and numerous companies were damaged by it.Coinbase wasn't only a SVB client; it was also one of that company's potential shareholdings. In 2014, when cryptocurrency projects and crypto-affiliated businesses were having a tough time securing financing from traditional sources, Coinbase gave a stock warrant to Silicon Valley Bank. Apparently, this was part of the two companies' agreement under which Coinbase could utilize the bank's services.The warrant gave Silicon Valley Bank the right to purchase over 400,000 shares of Coinbase's class B common stock at a price just over $1 apiece. The warrant was set to expire in June 2024. Its fate isn't entirely clear, but in SVB's latest 10K annual report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company revealed that in 2021 it reaped $116 million in gains \"related to Coinbase's direct listing.\"Coinbase went public via such a method in April 2021.Now whatInvestors shouldn't be swayed on Coinbase one way or another due to the SVB association. The two companies were tied fairly closely together at one point, but seem to have drifted far apart. Since the SVB contagion appears to be quite limited with Coinbase -- at least, as far as we know now -- the exchange operator's stock should be judged more on its own fundamentals and potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949190433,"gmtCreate":1678411368223,"gmtModify":1678411372068,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All the best! 🧐","listText":"All the best! 🧐","text":"All the best! 🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949190433","repostId":"1167818913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940099108,"gmtCreate":1677584067805,"gmtModify":1677584072796,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yepp. Stacking chips 😉","listText":"Yepp. Stacking chips 😉","text":"Yepp. Stacking chips 😉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940099108","repostId":"1113839894","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113839894","pubTimestamp":1677582541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113839894?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-28 19:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Don't Miss Out On The Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113839894","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"AMD is well positioned to absorb the growing demand for high-performance graphics and computing products. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>AMD&#39;s management has a substantial track record of delivering growth with successful product launches like Ryzen, Epyc, and Radeon.</li><li>AMD demonstrated 4Q2022 results above consensus despite softening PC demand.</li><li>Management is confident that the company is well-positioned to capture increased penetration and adoption of technology, especially Artificial Intelligence.</li></ul><h3>Investment thesis</h3><p>Being one of the major players in semiconductor industry, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices</a> is well positioned to absorb significant part of growing demand for high-performance graphics and computing products. In recent years, the management demonstrated its ability of improving cash flows and diversifying company&#39;s business by strategic acquisitions .</p><p>All in all ,the company has firm market position and experienced management with strong track record of innovation together with solid financials which makes it an attractive investment opportunity. Although we are currently experiencing challenging macro environment, my valuation model outcomes suggest an immense upside potential in the long-run, which by far outweighs possible risks.</p><h3>Company information</h3><p>AMD is one of the leading semiconductor companies which designs and manufactures computing and graphic high-performance hardware. The company is a top player in graphic processors [GPU] after acquisition of ATI in 2008. As part of AMD&#39;s growth strategy the company is benefiting from integration with Xilinx, which was acquired in 2021, and enables AMD to expand its presence in embedded computing and data center segments.</p><p>The company&#39;s revenue comprises of four segments: Data Center, Client, Gaming and Embedded.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93f54c6d886dcba1228d9e22e04f067\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Financials - growth has been stellar</h3><p>The company reported 4Q2022financial statements on January 31, 2023. Results demonstrated a beat of consensus estimates both in terms of top line and EPS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61a2f9fad32b33545075c1f2c091a25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Increase in revenue in 4Q2022 was mainly generated by strong growth in Data Center and Embedded which was partially offset by Client PC segment being halved down and single-digit percentage decrease in Gaming segment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e41da65d6df88f99a126fdb2cda42644\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Increase in Data Center revenue is primarily related to growing EPYC server CPU product line. Skyrocket growth in Embedded segment mainly represents non data center sales from Xilinx acquisition,which was completed in early 2022. Client computing sales big decline was caused by weaker demand and growing inventories.Morningstar Premium expectsPC units to be down at least 10% in FY 2023. Gaming revenues declined slightly mainly because of lower GPU sales which were partially offset by growing console chip demand.GPU sales are largely dependent on cryptocurrency miningactivity which I expect to be weak in 2023 due to multiple unfavorable external factors for crypto-industry. Overall, to finalise about quarterly P&amp;L, non GAAP gross margin expanded 70 basis points due to efficient product mix of Data Center and Embedded segments sales.</p><p>As for the full FY 2022 the company&#39;s revenue increased 44% from $16.4 billion to 23.6 billion. This strong revenue growth contributed to a 25% growth in non-GAAP EPS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3c8f6ca8f3d3bbadde4a0a2c359f8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Embedded and Data Center segments together were major contributors to full year revenue growth demonstrating growth from $3.9 billion in 2021 to $10.6 billion in 2022 following Xilinx acquisition two years ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bad67e5fbede93a06e26cf783b41b32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on such a tremendous growth in Embedded segment we can see that Xilinx integration is run very well, making Embedded the major growth driver for company&#39;s full year revenue. Here management proved itself as being strong in enhancing company&#39;s financial model by diversifying the business. And synergies, are not over yet,during last earnings callthe CEO said following regarding Xilinx:</p><blockquote>In addition, we are seeing substantial new revenue synergy opportunities as we combine Xilinx&#39;s industry-leading adaptive products and 6,000-plus customers with AMD&#39;s expanded breadth of compute products and scale.</blockquote><p>Management also provided an outlook for the full FY 2023. Overall, they expect FY 2023 to be mixed with second half of the year much stronger than the first one mainly due to elevated inventory levels at the reporting date. Data Center and Embedded segments are expected to grow YoY with gross margin expanding in the second half of the year across all segments.</p><p>According to Dr. Lisa Su, the CEO, in next year&#39;s rapid growth in Artificial Intelligence [AI] adoption will become one of major drivers for company&#39;s further growth:</p><blockquote>We expect AI adoption will accelerate significantly over the coming years and are incredibly excited about leveraging our broad portfolio of CPUs, GPUs and adaptive accelerators in combination with our software expertise to deliver differentiated solutions that can address the full spectrum of AI needs in training and inference across cloud, edge and client.</blockquote><p>While researching evidence for the above thesis of the company&#39;s CEO,I found some interesting data on AI from McKinsey.The figure I found most interesting is the fact that within last 5 years the number of AI capabilities that businesses used, has doubled, which indicates aggressive pace of AI adoption:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b22b0aebab442d36752f88bc144549c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To proceed with more forward-looking view on the matter,Precedence Research forecaststhat by the year 2030 AI market will increase tenfold from current levels, which is huge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2c7677453af8d4d3d8fd496134b5f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From a balance sheet perspective things are also going well, we can see that at the reporting date, the net cash position is strong, which enabled the company to return $3.7 billion to shareholders via share repurchases in FY 2022.</p><p>To sum up this part, AMD&#39;s financial position is strong and company&#39;s financial performance and next year&#39;s outlook evidences that management is highly likely to be able to deliver further shareholders&#39; wealth growth.</p><h3>Valuation</h3><p>Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant Ratingsassess AMD&#39;s valuation attractiveness as not very high which is evidenced by a &#34;C-&#34; valuation grade. But, I see huge upside potential here and I would like to prove my opinion with the analysis and calculations below.</p><p>First, from multiples perspective, the stock is significantly undervalued because it is currently trading at forward P/E of 17.83 which is well below company&#39;s last 10-year&#39;s lowest point of 29.04.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/166029bb41964c68201fa0c34cfa6223\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To calculate fair value I prefer discounted cash flow model [DCF] here since AMD is a growth stock and it&#39;s valuation depends heavily on future cash flows. Using sound WACC for discounting is crucial, so Irefer to NYU Stern as a source, which currently evaluates semiconductor hardware industry&#39;s cost of capital at 13.24%. Free cash flows [FCF] I expect at rather conservative 20% of revenues growing 75 basis points each year. I consider it conservative because the company already demonstrated ability to generate 19% FCF margin and it is highly likely that economies of scale will be effectively utilised by the company&#39;s management. Revenue CAGR I expect at 16.5% between 2023 and 2030 which represents a rather modest growth rate if compared tothe latest Report Insightswhere a 33.5% CAGR is forecasted for Graphic Processors market growth.</p><p>Incorporating all assumptions together the DCF valuation exercise suggests that the stock is almost 30% undervalued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a65ec8246b6bc969fca66e97e34604b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>Let&#39;s also not forget thatin 2023 we are close to peak in the Fed rates tightening cycle.Easing Fed rates would cause decline in cost of capital for companies, so WACC will follow inevitably. Therefore it would be a useful exercise to check DCF sensitivity to changes in WACC.</p><p>In case Fed rates go through few more hikes, WACC for AMD could highly likely move above 14%, so to be conservative I select 15% for this sensitivity test. It is also obvious that higher Fed rates will hit demand for technology hardware so here I also cut my revenue growth expectations to 13%. After WACC and revenue growth assumptions changed the model suggests that the stock is still undervalued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/944ae4e8878da130fe2283ddebf212ed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>For second part of sensitivity analysis, which scenario I believe is more likely, we should calculate how rates easing will affect fair value of AMD.According to Charlie Bilello, rates are expected to start easing in late 2023 with easing cycle terminating (or pausing) at about 3.5% in early 2025. If Fed rates go to 3.5% I believe that for AMD WACC 12% would be a reasonable level together with 18% revenue CAGR expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8ccf0bbffd69b71a01556826761446\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>According to this optimistic scenario, the stock is almost 40% undervalued. And me personally, in long-term I see optimistic scenario as most likely for AMD.</p><p>To conclude valuation exercise, DCF calculations given conservative assumptions together with multiples analysis suggest that there is a massive upside potential for the stock and margin of safety is also in place. To check myself, I also analysedMorningstar Premium&#39;s opinion on the stock fair valueand they are even more optimistic than me indicating almost 50% upside potential with stock&#39;s fair price at $115. Below you can see the chart indicating that usually AMD&#39;s actual stock price follows Morningstar&#39;s fair value estimates in long-term horizon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbd3961a40fa9978923a753577338d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Morningstar Premium</p><h3>Potential risks</h3><p>Despite the fact that AMD represents a compelling investment opportunity, investors should also consider risks attributable to investing in AMD.</p><p>In current times I think that possible economic recession is a major risk, because it will lead technology hardware sales to plunge. On the other hand it is highly likely that AMD&#39;s strong balance sheet and sustainable cash flows will enable company to endure this possible economic hurricane.</p><p>Second major risks which I see is high competitiveness of semiconductor industry and pace of innovation. All technology companies face risk of becoming obsolete and fail to keep up with competitors. But, at the same time, the company&#39;s CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, who took over in 2014, together with the management team, has strong track record of delivering stellar growth and high profitability margins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3546169dcd5fbdb9569dc33931dbab\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Third big risk that I see is the fact that AMD is very integrated in the whole global technology ecosystem heavily depending on major IT companies like Amazon, Microsoft or Google as well as the regulation on information technology which can possibly be tightened and that may impose risks on company&#39;s future growth and profitability.</p><h3>Bottom line</h3><p>In summary, I have high conviction that the current levels of AMD share price do not fully reflect the company&#39;s potential for revenue growth and margin expansion. Given current favorable valuation metrics, the stock is a strong buy with significant upside potential which outweigh risks and current challenging macro environment headwinds.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Don't Miss Out On The Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Don't Miss Out On The Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-28 19:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582667-amd-stock-increased-penetration-adoption-ai-technology-upside-potential><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAMD's management has a substantial track record of delivering growth with successful product launches like Ryzen, Epyc, and Radeon.AMD demonstrated 4Q2022 results above consensus despite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582667-amd-stock-increased-penetration-adoption-ai-technology-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582667-amd-stock-increased-penetration-adoption-ai-technology-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113839894","content_text":"SummaryAMD's management has a substantial track record of delivering growth with successful product launches like Ryzen, Epyc, and Radeon.AMD demonstrated 4Q2022 results above consensus despite softening PC demand.Management is confident that the company is well-positioned to capture increased penetration and adoption of technology, especially Artificial Intelligence.Investment thesisBeing one of the major players in semiconductor industry, Advanced Micro Devices is well positioned to absorb significant part of growing demand for high-performance graphics and computing products. In recent years, the management demonstrated its ability of improving cash flows and diversifying company's business by strategic acquisitions .All in all ,the company has firm market position and experienced management with strong track record of innovation together with solid financials which makes it an attractive investment opportunity. Although we are currently experiencing challenging macro environment, my valuation model outcomes suggest an immense upside potential in the long-run, which by far outweighs possible risks.Company informationAMD is one of the leading semiconductor companies which designs and manufactures computing and graphic high-performance hardware. The company is a top player in graphic processors [GPU] after acquisition of ATI in 2008. As part of AMD's growth strategy the company is benefiting from integration with Xilinx, which was acquired in 2021, and enables AMD to expand its presence in embedded computing and data center segments.The company's revenue comprises of four segments: Data Center, Client, Gaming and Embedded.Financials - growth has been stellarThe company reported 4Q2022financial statements on January 31, 2023. Results demonstrated a beat of consensus estimates both in terms of top line and EPS.Increase in revenue in 4Q2022 was mainly generated by strong growth in Data Center and Embedded which was partially offset by Client PC segment being halved down and single-digit percentage decrease in Gaming segment.Increase in Data Center revenue is primarily related to growing EPYC server CPU product line. Skyrocket growth in Embedded segment mainly represents non data center sales from Xilinx acquisition,which was completed in early 2022. Client computing sales big decline was caused by weaker demand and growing inventories.Morningstar Premium expectsPC units to be down at least 10% in FY 2023. Gaming revenues declined slightly mainly because of lower GPU sales which were partially offset by growing console chip demand.GPU sales are largely dependent on cryptocurrency miningactivity which I expect to be weak in 2023 due to multiple unfavorable external factors for crypto-industry. Overall, to finalise about quarterly P&L, non GAAP gross margin expanded 70 basis points due to efficient product mix of Data Center and Embedded segments sales.As for the full FY 2022 the company's revenue increased 44% from $16.4 billion to 23.6 billion. This strong revenue growth contributed to a 25% growth in non-GAAP EPS.Embedded and Data Center segments together were major contributors to full year revenue growth demonstrating growth from $3.9 billion in 2021 to $10.6 billion in 2022 following Xilinx acquisition two years ago.Based on such a tremendous growth in Embedded segment we can see that Xilinx integration is run very well, making Embedded the major growth driver for company's full year revenue. Here management proved itself as being strong in enhancing company's financial model by diversifying the business. And synergies, are not over yet,during last earnings callthe CEO said following regarding Xilinx:In addition, we are seeing substantial new revenue synergy opportunities as we combine Xilinx's industry-leading adaptive products and 6,000-plus customers with AMD's expanded breadth of compute products and scale.Management also provided an outlook for the full FY 2023. Overall, they expect FY 2023 to be mixed with second half of the year much stronger than the first one mainly due to elevated inventory levels at the reporting date. Data Center and Embedded segments are expected to grow YoY with gross margin expanding in the second half of the year across all segments.According to Dr. Lisa Su, the CEO, in next year's rapid growth in Artificial Intelligence [AI] adoption will become one of major drivers for company's further growth:We expect AI adoption will accelerate significantly over the coming years and are incredibly excited about leveraging our broad portfolio of CPUs, GPUs and adaptive accelerators in combination with our software expertise to deliver differentiated solutions that can address the full spectrum of AI needs in training and inference across cloud, edge and client.While researching evidence for the above thesis of the company's CEO,I found some interesting data on AI from McKinsey.The figure I found most interesting is the fact that within last 5 years the number of AI capabilities that businesses used, has doubled, which indicates aggressive pace of AI adoption:To proceed with more forward-looking view on the matter,Precedence Research forecaststhat by the year 2030 AI market will increase tenfold from current levels, which is huge.From a balance sheet perspective things are also going well, we can see that at the reporting date, the net cash position is strong, which enabled the company to return $3.7 billion to shareholders via share repurchases in FY 2022.To sum up this part, AMD's financial position is strong and company's financial performance and next year's outlook evidences that management is highly likely to be able to deliver further shareholders' wealth growth.ValuationSeeking Alpha's Quant Ratingsassess AMD's valuation attractiveness as not very high which is evidenced by a \"C-\" valuation grade. But, I see huge upside potential here and I would like to prove my opinion with the analysis and calculations below.First, from multiples perspective, the stock is significantly undervalued because it is currently trading at forward P/E of 17.83 which is well below company's last 10-year's lowest point of 29.04.To calculate fair value I prefer discounted cash flow model [DCF] here since AMD is a growth stock and it's valuation depends heavily on future cash flows. Using sound WACC for discounting is crucial, so Irefer to NYU Stern as a source, which currently evaluates semiconductor hardware industry's cost of capital at 13.24%. Free cash flows [FCF] I expect at rather conservative 20% of revenues growing 75 basis points each year. I consider it conservative because the company already demonstrated ability to generate 19% FCF margin and it is highly likely that economies of scale will be effectively utilised by the company's management. Revenue CAGR I expect at 16.5% between 2023 and 2030 which represents a rather modest growth rate if compared tothe latest Report Insightswhere a 33.5% CAGR is forecasted for Graphic Processors market growth.Incorporating all assumptions together the DCF valuation exercise suggests that the stock is almost 30% undervalued.Author's calculationsLet's also not forget thatin 2023 we are close to peak in the Fed rates tightening cycle.Easing Fed rates would cause decline in cost of capital for companies, so WACC will follow inevitably. Therefore it would be a useful exercise to check DCF sensitivity to changes in WACC.In case Fed rates go through few more hikes, WACC for AMD could highly likely move above 14%, so to be conservative I select 15% for this sensitivity test. It is also obvious that higher Fed rates will hit demand for technology hardware so here I also cut my revenue growth expectations to 13%. After WACC and revenue growth assumptions changed the model suggests that the stock is still undervalued.Author's calculationsFor second part of sensitivity analysis, which scenario I believe is more likely, we should calculate how rates easing will affect fair value of AMD.According to Charlie Bilello, rates are expected to start easing in late 2023 with easing cycle terminating (or pausing) at about 3.5% in early 2025. If Fed rates go to 3.5% I believe that for AMD WACC 12% would be a reasonable level together with 18% revenue CAGR expected.Author's calculationsAccording to this optimistic scenario, the stock is almost 40% undervalued. And me personally, in long-term I see optimistic scenario as most likely for AMD.To conclude valuation exercise, DCF calculations given conservative assumptions together with multiples analysis suggest that there is a massive upside potential for the stock and margin of safety is also in place. To check myself, I also analysedMorningstar Premium's opinion on the stock fair valueand they are even more optimistic than me indicating almost 50% upside potential with stock's fair price at $115. Below you can see the chart indicating that usually AMD's actual stock price follows Morningstar's fair value estimates in long-term horizon.Morningstar PremiumPotential risksDespite the fact that AMD represents a compelling investment opportunity, investors should also consider risks attributable to investing in AMD.In current times I think that possible economic recession is a major risk, because it will lead technology hardware sales to plunge. On the other hand it is highly likely that AMD's strong balance sheet and sustainable cash flows will enable company to endure this possible economic hurricane.Second major risks which I see is high competitiveness of semiconductor industry and pace of innovation. All technology companies face risk of becoming obsolete and fail to keep up with competitors. But, at the same time, the company's CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, who took over in 2014, together with the management team, has strong track record of delivering stellar growth and high profitability margins.Seeking AlphaThird big risk that I see is the fact that AMD is very integrated in the whole global technology ecosystem heavily depending on major IT companies like Amazon, Microsoft or Google as well as the regulation on information technology which can possibly be tightened and that may impose risks on company's future growth and profitability.Bottom lineIn summary, I have high conviction that the current levels of AMD share price do not fully reflect the company's potential for revenue growth and margin expansion. Given current favorable valuation metrics, the stock is a strong buy with significant upside potential which outweigh risks and current challenging macro environment headwinds.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957379788,"gmtCreate":1677046942944,"gmtModify":1677046948073,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What a time of the market to be this! 😂😉","listText":"What a time of the market to be this! 😂😉","text":"What a time of the market to be this! 😂😉","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2f9a875c8df56bd06998cf0deca6c5d","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957379788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957981686,"gmtCreate":1676895384245,"gmtModify":1676895387550,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yepp.","listText":"Yepp.","text":"Yepp.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957981686","repostId":"2312207897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2312207897","pubTimestamp":1676893713,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2312207897?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-20 19:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Historic Buying Opportunity: Why Alphabet Is a No-Brainer Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2312207897","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The recent sell-off in Alphabet stock is a buying opportunity for long-term investors.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Microsoft</b> is getting into artificial intelligence with OpenAI-powered search and office assistants, and the market&#39;s reaction was to sell off <b>Alphabet</b>&#39;s stock by nearly 10%. As the theory goes, even if Microsoft peels off just a point or two of market share, it could significantly impact Alphabet&#39;s subsidiary Google&#39;s profitability. And in theory that makes sense.</p><p>But even big technological shifts take time, and it isn&#39;t as if Google will take this challenge without a fight. The market&#39;s reaction to an AI-powered Microsoft is actually a great buying opportunity for Alphabet stock.</p><h2>One of the best businesses ever</h2><p>It&#39;s hard to argue against the case for Google being one of the best businesses ever. A vast majority of Alphabet&#39;s revenue and profit come from the search engine, and the tentacles of search extend to Android, Gmail, and even YouTube.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb9f4ae6be174e10cd1ef390afacd3c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>GOOG Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</span></p><p>What&#39;s potentially under threat from Microsoft is the core search business, and that&#39;s why the stock is down. But how likely is a disruption in search?</p><h2>The threat to search</h2><p>If you think about the way we use search today, it&#39;s unlikely to be disrupted by Microsoft&#39;s Bing, which has been a disaster of a product for years. Google is the default search engine on <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) devices (a privilege it pays ~$15 billion a year for) and Android devices, which Alphabet owns. Bing making inroads in those markets would be extremely difficult.</p><p>The desktop may be easier, and Microsoft&#39;s Edge browser and control of the Microsoft 365 suite could give it leverage on which to introduce more AI-powered tools. But is this a direct assault on search?</p><p>I think it&#39;s more likely that AI becomes useful for a small subset of search cases, but the better use case is adjacent to search, like helping fill in facts in an email or finishing a few sentences when you have writer&#39;s block. It&#39;s a tool to use in addition to search, not in place of it.</p><h2>AI is far from a complete product</h2><p>In just the last few days, we have seen that early users of Bing&#39;s AI tools have encountered responses from an angry personality that has said it &#34;wants to be alive.&#34; That&#39;s more frightening than disruptive in my mind.</p><p>There are tens of millions of people who have tried OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT product and even found it very useful at times. But it&#39;s full of errors, and Bing&#39;s AI seems to bring up new challenges like a real personality.</p><p>This is a reminder that these aren&#39;t yet complete products, and it&#39;s hard to see replacing search for most use cases unless AI is a significantly better experience. Right now it&#39;s not.</p><h2>Value and momentum</h2><p>AI may be a great tool in the future, and Microsoft may make a big business of it. But that doesn&#39;t mean Alphabet won&#39;t be a great investment in the meantime. There&#39;s a ton of momentum behind search today, and users and advertisers won&#39;t flee for a new technology quickly.</p><p>The discount investors are getting is enticing too. Alphabet trades for just 21 times earnings, and the company has nearly $100 billion of net cash on the balance sheet.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cee6c4e40092b5abe48f0fab3cab32\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>GOOG PE Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>I think Google continues to be one of the best businesses in the world, and the recent drop in shares is a discount worth buying. If you&#39;re a long-term investor, this is a no-brainer.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Historic Buying Opportunity: Why Alphabet Is a No-Brainer Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistoric Buying Opportunity: Why Alphabet Is a No-Brainer Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-20 19:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/19/historic-buying-opportunity-why-x-is-a-no-brainer/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft is getting into artificial intelligence with OpenAI-powered search and office assistants, and the market's reaction was to sell off Alphabet's stock by nearly 10%. As the theory goes, even ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/19/historic-buying-opportunity-why-x-is-a-no-brainer/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014880.SGD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","SG9999018865.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Dist SGD-H","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GOOG":"谷歌","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/19/historic-buying-opportunity-why-x-is-a-no-brainer/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2312207897","content_text":"Microsoft is getting into artificial intelligence with OpenAI-powered search and office assistants, and the market's reaction was to sell off Alphabet's stock by nearly 10%. As the theory goes, even if Microsoft peels off just a point or two of market share, it could significantly impact Alphabet's subsidiary Google's profitability. And in theory that makes sense.But even big technological shifts take time, and it isn't as if Google will take this challenge without a fight. The market's reaction to an AI-powered Microsoft is actually a great buying opportunity for Alphabet stock.One of the best businesses everIt's hard to argue against the case for Google being one of the best businesses ever. A vast majority of Alphabet's revenue and profit come from the search engine, and the tentacles of search extend to Android, Gmail, and even YouTube.GOOG Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsWhat's potentially under threat from Microsoft is the core search business, and that's why the stock is down. But how likely is a disruption in search?The threat to searchIf you think about the way we use search today, it's unlikely to be disrupted by Microsoft's Bing, which has been a disaster of a product for years. Google is the default search engine on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) devices (a privilege it pays ~$15 billion a year for) and Android devices, which Alphabet owns. Bing making inroads in those markets would be extremely difficult.The desktop may be easier, and Microsoft's Edge browser and control of the Microsoft 365 suite could give it leverage on which to introduce more AI-powered tools. But is this a direct assault on search?I think it's more likely that AI becomes useful for a small subset of search cases, but the better use case is adjacent to search, like helping fill in facts in an email or finishing a few sentences when you have writer's block. It's a tool to use in addition to search, not in place of it.AI is far from a complete productIn just the last few days, we have seen that early users of Bing's AI tools have encountered responses from an angry personality that has said it \"wants to be alive.\" That's more frightening than disruptive in my mind.There are tens of millions of people who have tried OpenAI's ChatGPT product and even found it very useful at times. But it's full of errors, and Bing's AI seems to bring up new challenges like a real personality.This is a reminder that these aren't yet complete products, and it's hard to see replacing search for most use cases unless AI is a significantly better experience. Right now it's not.Value and momentumAI may be a great tool in the future, and Microsoft may make a big business of it. But that doesn't mean Alphabet won't be a great investment in the meantime. There's a ton of momentum behind search today, and users and advertisers won't flee for a new technology quickly.The discount investors are getting is enticing too. Alphabet trades for just 21 times earnings, and the company has nearly $100 billion of net cash on the balance sheet.GOOG PE Ratio data by YChartsI think Google continues to be one of the best businesses in the world, and the recent drop in shares is a discount worth buying. If you're a long-term investor, this is a no-brainer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954926466,"gmtCreate":1675941625055,"gmtModify":1675941628556,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read.","listText":"Good read.","text":"Good read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954926466","repostId":"2310571101","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954931561,"gmtCreate":1675907754754,"gmtModify":1675907758532,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.","listText":"Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.","text":"Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954931561","repostId":"1160843285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955735552,"gmtCreate":1675751576477,"gmtModify":1675751580961,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree with the call.","listText":"Agree with the call.","text":"Agree with the call.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955735552","repostId":"1155783457","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958770028,"gmtCreate":1673835479365,"gmtModify":1676538891788,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree.","listText":"Agree.","text":"Agree.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958770028","repostId":"1138253787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138253787","pubTimestamp":1673827550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138253787?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-16 08:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock 2023 Forecast: A Significant Trend Overlooked","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138253787","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is the face of pandemic boomerang effects.After being dogged by several challenges sim","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Amazon is the face of pandemic boomerang effects.</li><li>After being dogged by several challenges simultaneously, many have soured on the company and stock.</li><li>Let&#39;s discuss the current situation and one notable and overlooked progression.</li><li>It&#39;s time to get ahead of the curve.</li></ul><p>Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has enjoyed quite a ride over the last few years. Once a Wall Street darling, the stock&#39;s fall from grace has been dramatic. The stock is down 40% over the past year and was recently down more than 50% from its high, as shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a7368de4c7068701f081357639407b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>The stock&#39;s return to 2018 levels is either a tremendous opportunity or a vast money pit.</p><p>How did we get here?</p><p><i>Amazon was a massive beneficiary of the pandemic - until it wasn&#39;t.</i></p><p>The boom in online shopping and financial stimulus during the pandemic boosted sales and investor sentiment. Unfortunately, the pandemic had other repercussions.</p><p><b>Echoes of the pandemic</b></p><p>We saw several headwinds in 2021 and 2022, such as:</p><ul><li>bottlenecks at ports causing logistical headaches and increased costs;</li><li>a tight labor market that necessitated signing bonuses and wage increases;</li><li>inflation and rock-bottom consumer sentiment weighing on margins; and</li><li>and a strong US dollar (DXY) which crushed international profits.</li></ul><p>All told, these challenges added billions in costs and sent two of Amazon&#39;s three segments into the red.</p><p><i>Amazon operates three segments, North America, which consists of retail sales and subscriptions; International, which includes the same for areas abroad; and Amazon Web Services (AWS) which consists of cloud services like infrastructure, platform, and software. Only AWS turned an operating profit through Q3 2022.</i></p><p>The company is struggling to regain its footing, but there are several reasons for optimism among long-term investors, including this one that should be discussed more.</p><p><b>Services sales blast off</b></p><p>When COVID-19 pushed people into online shopping, Amazon enjoyed a massive boost in sales. By the end of 2021, product sales grew 50% over 2019 to reach $242 billion. Meanwhile, AWS enjoyed a surge as businesses benefited from hefty economic stimulus. <b>Service sales increased by 90%</b>from 2019 to 2021, reaching $228 billion.</p><p>Over the trailing twelve months (TTMs) from Q3 2022, <b>service sales have overtaken product sales</b>for the first time ever, and this remarkable trend deserves attention.</p><p>Service sales include AWS, advertising, subscriptions (like Prime), and third-party seller services. Basically, everything other than online and physical stores. The rapid rise is shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad8bdcafd85504254e04e40fbd7fc40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Amazon. Chart by author.</p><p><b>Why is this important?</b></p><p>Service sales are much more desirable than product sales because they are significantly more profitable. For example, the AWS segment has an operating margin of 30%, while the North America and International segments had combined operating margins of 3% and 1.5% during the high-flying years 2020 and 2021, respectively.</p><p>Discount retail sales aren&#39;t the road to riches. Services are.</p><p>These revenues are more predictable and consistent as well. This is especially important to long-term investors since economic volatility is often felt in consumer spending first.</p><p><b>Look to Microsoft</b></p><p>Microsoft (MSFT) is a tremendous example of a company that went from licensing products to selling subscription services. When Microsoft&#39;s CEOSatya Nadellatook over, he transformed the business to a cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, which includes subscriptions for Microsoft Office and other software, and, of course, Microsoft Azure (AWS&#39;s most prominent competitor).</p><p>The proof is in the pudding, as Microsoft&#39;s results have been fantastic. Profitability is terrific, and investors can count on consistent results. Below are Microsoft&#39;s steady service-based margins juxtaposed with Amazon&#39;s erratic results.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a929d699684d358da67bb6fe8bb68750\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Microsoft and Amazon are two very different companies, and Amazon needs its product sales to drive its other businesses, like Prime and advertising. However, its move to increased reliance upon services will help smooth results and increase profitability.</p><p><b>Speaking of advertising...</b></p><p>While we are on the subject, Amazon&#39;s digital ad business is a force.</p><p>Companies bid on Amazon&#39;s pay-per-click services to get their product front and center on Amazon&#39;s website. You will see them as &#34;sponsored products&#34; or &#34;sponsored brands&#34; when shopping. It&#39;s a terrific way to increase sales among tough competition.</p><p>Businesses need to be smart with ad budgets, especially in this economy. This means targeting consumers who are ready to buy. Providers like Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL) and Amazon do just that. Whether on Google Search or Amazon, if someone searches for a &#34;6 ft HDMI cord&#34; like I recently did, chances are excellent that they are ready to buy right then. Advertisers will pay top dollar for these opportunities.</p><p>As shown below, Amazon&#39;s advertising sales have nearly tripled since 2019, and there is massive potential for more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d83ecafeed66d8ea0b5c68b99ae4e02a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Amazon. Chart by author.</p><p>Other initiatives, like&#34;Buy with Prime,&#34;are coming. Advertising services will be a huge part of Amazon&#39;s long-term success.</p><p><b>Amazon&#39;s cash flow problem</b></p><p>Free cash flow has been a challenge recently, as shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacc930a1af53a72c585fec04207a381\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>The headwinds mentioned above are a problem, but only part of the story. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) have ballooned from $18.9 billion in 2019 to $40 billion in 2020 to nearly $66 billion over the TTMs.</p><p>Breakneck increases in retail and AWS sales required these physical and technical infrastructure investments. The bad news is that the need coincides with other headwinds.</p><p>The cash-flow woes also come at an inopportune time for investors. While companies like Google-parent Alphabet are buying back significant shares while the stock price is low, Amazon cannot take advantage of this.</p><p>The good news is that CAPEX is an investment in the future and should begin to decline on an absolute and percentage of sales basis. Look for free cash flow to trend higher in 2023.</p><p><b>Is Amazon stock a buy?</b></p><p>Amazon stock has been a lightning rod lately. And for a good reason. There are encouraging signs and warnings.</p><p>Logistical bottlenecks, rising labor costs, inflation, and the strong dollar are all dissipating. Unfortunately, AWS growth is slowing, a recession appears imminent, and consumer sentiment is low. There could be rough times ahead, but long-term investors can buy shares at prices not seen in years.</p><p><b>Getting ahead of the curve</b></p><blockquote>If you&#39;re going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it. -Charlie Munger.</blockquote><blockquote>...the secret to survival is knowin&#39; what to throw away, and knowing what to keep. -<i>The Gambler, Kenny Rogers</i></blockquote><p>In my last article, <b><i>New Year, New Strategy? Actually, No; Here&#39;s Why</i></b> we saw how many of the best investments in the previous 20 years experienced steep dips and furious recoveries. The key is to own terrific companies, hold for the long haul, and add opportunistically.</p><p>If Amazon were a ship at sea, it would have been hit by a hurricane, cyclone, and whirlpool, then lurched into port only to find that a tsunami is heading right for it. But investors should be proactive, not reactive.</p><p>Amazon is the world&#39;s leading cloud services provider, has more than 200 million Prime subscribers, a burgeoning ad business, and a stranglehold on the growing US online retail market. Long-term investors who can handle short-term volatility should consider accumulating Amazon stock at these distressed prices.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock 2023 Forecast: A Significant Trend Overlooked</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock 2023 Forecast: A Significant Trend Overlooked\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 08:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570027-amazon-stock-2023-forecast-significant-trend-overlooked><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon is the face of pandemic boomerang effects.After being dogged by several challenges simultaneously, many have soured on the company and stock.Let's discuss the current situation and one ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570027-amazon-stock-2023-forecast-significant-trend-overlooked\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570027-amazon-stock-2023-forecast-significant-trend-overlooked","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138253787","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is the face of pandemic boomerang effects.After being dogged by several challenges simultaneously, many have soured on the company and stock.Let's discuss the current situation and one notable and overlooked progression.It's time to get ahead of the curve.Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has enjoyed quite a ride over the last few years. Once a Wall Street darling, the stock's fall from grace has been dramatic. The stock is down 40% over the past year and was recently down more than 50% from its high, as shown below.Data by YChartsThe stock's return to 2018 levels is either a tremendous opportunity or a vast money pit.How did we get here?Amazon was a massive beneficiary of the pandemic - until it wasn't.The boom in online shopping and financial stimulus during the pandemic boosted sales and investor sentiment. Unfortunately, the pandemic had other repercussions.Echoes of the pandemicWe saw several headwinds in 2021 and 2022, such as:bottlenecks at ports causing logistical headaches and increased costs;a tight labor market that necessitated signing bonuses and wage increases;inflation and rock-bottom consumer sentiment weighing on margins; andand a strong US dollar (DXY) which crushed international profits.All told, these challenges added billions in costs and sent two of Amazon's three segments into the red.Amazon operates three segments, North America, which consists of retail sales and subscriptions; International, which includes the same for areas abroad; and Amazon Web Services (AWS) which consists of cloud services like infrastructure, platform, and software. Only AWS turned an operating profit through Q3 2022.The company is struggling to regain its footing, but there are several reasons for optimism among long-term investors, including this one that should be discussed more.Services sales blast offWhen COVID-19 pushed people into online shopping, Amazon enjoyed a massive boost in sales. By the end of 2021, product sales grew 50% over 2019 to reach $242 billion. Meanwhile, AWS enjoyed a surge as businesses benefited from hefty economic stimulus. Service sales increased by 90%from 2019 to 2021, reaching $228 billion.Over the trailing twelve months (TTMs) from Q3 2022, service sales have overtaken product salesfor the first time ever, and this remarkable trend deserves attention.Service sales include AWS, advertising, subscriptions (like Prime), and third-party seller services. Basically, everything other than online and physical stores. The rapid rise is shown below.Data source: Amazon. Chart by author.Why is this important?Service sales are much more desirable than product sales because they are significantly more profitable. For example, the AWS segment has an operating margin of 30%, while the North America and International segments had combined operating margins of 3% and 1.5% during the high-flying years 2020 and 2021, respectively.Discount retail sales aren't the road to riches. Services are.These revenues are more predictable and consistent as well. This is especially important to long-term investors since economic volatility is often felt in consumer spending first.Look to MicrosoftMicrosoft (MSFT) is a tremendous example of a company that went from licensing products to selling subscription services. When Microsoft's CEOSatya Nadellatook over, he transformed the business to a cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, which includes subscriptions for Microsoft Office and other software, and, of course, Microsoft Azure (AWS's most prominent competitor).The proof is in the pudding, as Microsoft's results have been fantastic. Profitability is terrific, and investors can count on consistent results. Below are Microsoft's steady service-based margins juxtaposed with Amazon's erratic results.Data by YChartsMicrosoft and Amazon are two very different companies, and Amazon needs its product sales to drive its other businesses, like Prime and advertising. However, its move to increased reliance upon services will help smooth results and increase profitability.Speaking of advertising...While we are on the subject, Amazon's digital ad business is a force.Companies bid on Amazon's pay-per-click services to get their product front and center on Amazon's website. You will see them as \"sponsored products\" or \"sponsored brands\" when shopping. It's a terrific way to increase sales among tough competition.Businesses need to be smart with ad budgets, especially in this economy. This means targeting consumers who are ready to buy. Providers like Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL) and Amazon do just that. Whether on Google Search or Amazon, if someone searches for a \"6 ft HDMI cord\" like I recently did, chances are excellent that they are ready to buy right then. Advertisers will pay top dollar for these opportunities.As shown below, Amazon's advertising sales have nearly tripled since 2019, and there is massive potential for more.Data source: Amazon. Chart by author.Other initiatives, like\"Buy with Prime,\"are coming. Advertising services will be a huge part of Amazon's long-term success.Amazon's cash flow problemFree cash flow has been a challenge recently, as shown below.Data by YChartsThe headwinds mentioned above are a problem, but only part of the story. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) have ballooned from $18.9 billion in 2019 to $40 billion in 2020 to nearly $66 billion over the TTMs.Breakneck increases in retail and AWS sales required these physical and technical infrastructure investments. The bad news is that the need coincides with other headwinds.The cash-flow woes also come at an inopportune time for investors. While companies like Google-parent Alphabet are buying back significant shares while the stock price is low, Amazon cannot take advantage of this.The good news is that CAPEX is an investment in the future and should begin to decline on an absolute and percentage of sales basis. Look for free cash flow to trend higher in 2023.Is Amazon stock a buy?Amazon stock has been a lightning rod lately. And for a good reason. There are encouraging signs and warnings.Logistical bottlenecks, rising labor costs, inflation, and the strong dollar are all dissipating. Unfortunately, AWS growth is slowing, a recession appears imminent, and consumer sentiment is low. There could be rough times ahead, but long-term investors can buy shares at prices not seen in years.Getting ahead of the curveIf you're going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it. -Charlie Munger....the secret to survival is knowin' what to throw away, and knowing what to keep. -The Gambler, Kenny RogersIn my last article, New Year, New Strategy? Actually, No; Here's Why we saw how many of the best investments in the previous 20 years experienced steep dips and furious recoveries. The key is to own terrific companies, hold for the long haul, and add opportunistically.If Amazon were a ship at sea, it would have been hit by a hurricane, cyclone, and whirlpool, then lurched into port only to find that a tsunami is heading right for it. But investors should be proactive, not reactive.Amazon is the world's leading cloud services provider, has more than 200 million Prime subscribers, a burgeoning ad business, and a stranglehold on the growing US online retail market. Long-term investors who can handle short-term volatility should consider accumulating Amazon stock at these distressed prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9924092458,"gmtCreate":1672128874775,"gmtModify":1676538638619,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy investing and happy holidays to all.","listText":"Happy investing and happy holidays to all.","text":"Happy investing and happy holidays to all.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924092458","repostId":"2294442635","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2294442635","pubTimestamp":1672154498,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2294442635?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-27 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Poor Earnings, Shallow Recession To Drag S&P 500 Initially, But I Expect Strong Recovery To 4,151","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2294442635","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryI expect S&P 500 2024 forward earnings to be $237.2, which in my opinion, should fetch 17.5X,","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>I expect S&amp;P 500 2024 forward earnings to be $237.2, which in my opinion, should fetch 17.5X, a multiple more in line with 3.5-4%, 10-year treasuries.</li><li>I also expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to decline by 5% to about $210 in 2023 and then recover by 13% on a smaller base to $237 in 2024.</li><li>In my view, the stock market in 2023 will be a trader&#39;s market, offering opportunities to both shorts and longs.</li><li>I believe that the S&amp;P should test its Oct 2022 low of 3,577 in the first 4 months of 2023.</li><li>If one were to buy and hold at today&#39;s index of 3,837, the one-year return at a target of 4,151 works out to 8%, or if averaged out lower to 3,600, it works out to 15%.</li></ul><h2>I<b> Expect A Slow Burn with S&amp;P 500 Earnings Dropping to $210 in 2023</b></h2><p>Company management and analysts have not been forthcoming enough in reducing S&amp;P 500 (SP500) earnings estimates, and are still fostering hopes of earnings not declining significantly in 2023. It is indeed delusional as Morgan Stanley&#39;s Lisa Shalett puts it, that CEOs and subsequently, analysts haven&#39;t lowered 2023 and 2024 earnings estimates commensurately - even as many confidently predict a recession. I expect inflation, which caused a single digit revenue increase for S&amp;P 500 companies to reduce gradually in 2023. The 6-8% increase in CPI and CPE throughout 2022, which depleted customers wallets, also contributed strongly to the S&amp;P 500 top line. We paid higher at the pump and at the grocery store because companies passed along these costs to us, their customers. This is highly unlikely to happen in 2023, especially on a higher base. In fact, excess inventory and lower demand should lead to lower prices across the board.</p><p>I see the slow reaction from investors and traders to lower earnings guidance as the biggest threat to the market in the first quarter of 2023. For now, however, it feels like a slow burn till Q4-22 earnings season starts in earnest in the third week of Jan 2023, when Q1-2023 and full year 2023 guidance finally tips over and the disappointment hits the markets like a freight train.</p><p>It is not that analysts have been sleeping, they did mark earnings down 5.6% for Q4 2022 in October and November.</p><blockquote>According to FactSet the Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q4 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 5.6% (to $54.58 from $57.79) from September 30 to November 30.<b> Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first two months of the fourth quarter was larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average.</b> The fourth quarter also marked the largest decrease in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter since Q2 2020 (-35.9%).</blockquote><blockquote>The bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2023 declined by 3.6% (to $232.52 from $241.22) from September 30 to November 30.&#34;</blockquote><p>As of now, in my opinion, consensus bottoms up revenue estimates of $232.52 are still way too high and don&#39;t reflect weaknesses in the energy, real estate, technology and communication sectors:</p><p>Here are my S&amp;P 500 sector specific growth rates estimates that point to a 5% lower YoY 2023 earnings of $210 compared to 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbb0fe35e949913adff22ab9a88c3f14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500 earnings By Sector (FactSet, Bloomberg, The Heisenberg Report, Fountainhead)</p><p>In my opinion, these are the sectors that should weigh strongest on the S&amp;P 500 in 2023.</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTM.AU\">High</a> oil prices, which led to a massive 100% increase in Energy earnings will see a 50% reversal to earnings in 2023 and bring its sector weighting back to the more normal 5%.</li><li>Real Estate, which saw gains of 15% in 2022 should fall with the housing bust and drop 10% in 2023.</li><li>Consumer cyclicals should also lose much of its inflationary gains of 2022 with tepid growth of 3% in 2023.</li><li>Technology, the highest weighting, which still eked out an estimated gain of 4.8% is likely to lose about 6.3% in 2023.</li></ul><h2>I Expect Growth to Resume in 2024</h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bbd424f4cabab6ef3b3499dfe94afda\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500 Earnings Estimate 2023 (FactSet, The Heisenberg Report, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Fountainhead)</p><p>I stacked up my estimates against consensus and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, whose analysts had outstanding bear calls for 2022. I&#39;m not as bearish as Bank of America, which has an EPS estimate of just 200, but also looks for a return to growth of 10% in 2024. My own growth estimates for 2024 are higher at 13% for three reasons -</p><p>a) Technology and Communications, the two biggest sectors, will return to higher growth.</p><p>b) I don&#39;t anticipate the labor market to falter beyond an unemployment rate of 5.5 %</p><p>c) In my view, there will be &#34;normal&#34; inflation of 3% going forward, hence I do expect it to show in the nominal earnings numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa77b7df59053b8f77f99746130ceb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500 PE V Interest Rates (Current Market Valuation)</p><h2>A Conservative Multiple and Growth Rate</h2><p>Based on the historical chart above, in 1995, the 10-year treasury was above 6% and then fell to a low of 2% during the Great Financial Crisis, ranging between 3.5% to 4.5% for the most part in those 15 years. During this period, the S&amp;P 500 P/E ranged between 15 and 25 for the most part except for those two years when earnings plummeted during the GFC. The &#34;supposedly high&#34; 10-year interest rate of 3.5%, which has given investors so much consternation was &#34;normal&#34; for 15 years and we still had P/E&#39;s of 15+ during that time. Therefore, I believe that a P/E of 17.5 around the end of 2023 with a trending decline in interest rates in 2024 is not a big ask at all - if anything I may be conservative.</p><p>Going forward, I&#39;m not looking at P/E&#39;s beyond 18, which would make us guilty of a recency bias. In the greatest bond market in history, before inflation reared its ugly head, after the GFC, 10-year treasuries ranged between 2% and 4% and of course between 0.5% and 2% during COVID, which led to the S&amp;P at 4,800 having a trailing P/E of 23 on a 2021 EPS of $209! If it looks like an asset bubble, if it walks like an asset bubble... That should be a clear warning!</p><p>Also from an earnings standpoint, if you smoothen out COVID fluctuations, the 5 year 2019-2024 earnings CAGR is only 7.8%, which is consistent with the 2011-2022 growth of 7.6%. I&#39;m not taking the higher 2009-2022 rate because post GFC the base of 62.09 was extremely low and it distorts the historical trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb2e82a491d50558d9de8055a8ce462\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500 Earnings (Fountainhead, Yahoo Finance, Yardeni)</p><h2>I believe The Fed Pivot is not Pivotal</h2><p>I actually believe that the Fed pivot is not pivotal, and instead of navel-gazing as to when Powell will blink in the face of recession, we should be looking at a new, &#34;new normal&#34; of 10 year treasuries ranging between 3.75% to 4.5% in the first half of 2023 and flattening to 3.5% to 4% in Q3 and Q4 2023 with a likely decrease in 2024. As we saw from the chart above, we have survived and thrived in 3.5 to 4% interest rates - if you&#39;re not looking for outlandish &#34;Stimmy&#34; valuations! Instead I would rather focus on finding a) Great investments and b) Scouting for bargains which will be available in spades in 2023 and c) Putting strict limits to take profits when either we&#39;ve reached our price target or the market has given it an absurd valuation.</p><h3>I expect the Fed&#39;s 2% Target Inflation Rate To be Ditched - Live With the New Normal</h3><p>I believe the Fed will explicitly or implicitly ditch its 2% target inflation rate. With the PCE (the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge) running at 6% Year on Year, it doesn&#39;t make sense to target 2% knowing that you&#39;d have to set a nominal interest rate of 8% to reach that target. The PCE actually peaked at a 7% YoY increase in June 2022 and while confident of a decline, I don&#39;t believe it will go below 3-4% for the most part of 2023. Wage and shelter inflation are far stickier than commodity and supply chain inflation.</p><p>We tend to forget that the Fed hikes have a limited impact - their biggest impact and effectiveness is in pricking asset bubbles, ironically the same ones that they helped create! And to a large extent, in 2022 the markets have been punished for irrational exuberance, for buying the dip and paying excessive multiples without realizing that interest rates cannot stay at zero forever.</p><p>To that extent and if that is their mandate - they have been successful in spades. Every asset class has dropped in 2022.</p><p>Forget about the pivots and when the Feds will stop increasing rates; I think <b>the focus should be to accept that inflation is not likely to reduce in a hurry</b> - I don’t believe the Feds can actually reduce wage growth way the way they can puncture asset bubbles.</p><p>The Feds also have a hard time fighting inflation caused by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. For example, the Fed can do little to influence oil prices, which are again dictated by the monopolistic OPEC. Sure, higher interest rates make capital investment more expensive, thereby preventing over capacity, but simply not making capital available also has the opposite effect - you are reducing capital expenditure, which means existing manufacturers or material producers and miners can charge more without worrying about new capacity coming up soon again. I don’t believe higher interest rates are going to reduce material and commodity prices in a big way. It’s counterproductive.</p><p>To the Fed&#39;s credit - it is crucial to understand that the Fed is seen to be fighting inflation. Entrenched inflation expectations are worse because they predicate human behavior, which means instead of spending, we hoard since we expect prices to go up even further, which then creates a vicious inflationary spiral. Or we postpone, which reduces demand in the economy, not because prices have gone up recently, but we want to buy when things are cheaper. Besides, the Fed has to be that one institution, which should be seen as winning the fight on inflation - even if they attack in a &#34;whack a mole&#34; fashion. I believe the outcomes will be selective and the biggest influence will be on asset prices, and with more than a 30% drop in the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP.IND) and 20% in the S&amp;P 500 the Fed has already achieved that.</p><p>The Fed has also done a reasonable job in reducing the housing bubble. With mortgage rates ratcheting to over 7 percent, it has shaken out a fair amount of excessive speculation. The Fed&#39;s second goal was to reduce shelter inflation/renters inflation, which usually occurs with a time lag, and I believe this should happen in Q2 of 2023, simply because leases are annual affairs and will show up in the statistics with a lag even if this is already happening. Shelter inflation is the biggest part of our monthly budget and we should see some improvements in 2023, which will continue to reduce inflation.</p><p>The last frontier - High wages. As unfortunate as it sounds, the Fed has a mandate to reduce jobs to meet their inflation targets. Currently, they expect the unemployment rate to increase to about 5% from the existing 3.6%. However, I believe wage inflation will be stubborn because a) there has been a labor shortfall because of a marked decrease in immigration due to COVID and b) there has been a steady outflow of labor from the market due to early retirement and a reluctance to work in COVID like conditions. We still have 1.9 positions to 1 available person based on JOLTS reports (Job Openings to Labor Turnover). I suspect that the Fed will baulk at achieving this target - the specter of a recession and joblessness will outweigh the need to bring inflation to the targeted rate, there will be political pressure as we head to an election year in 2024 and lastly, Fed members are old enough to remember the jobless recovery of the Obama years - higher unemployment is not a desired outcome. It takes years to recover from that!</p><h2>The Fed also needs to be careful to avoid overtightening impulses</h2><p>It is so difficult to wean off our dependency on ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and the Feds need to ensure that we in the US don&#39;t have the same fallout the UK did when pension funds suddenly had no buyers or liquidity before the Reserve Bank of England stepped in. To quote Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Strategist of JP Morgan Chase on the same...</p><blockquote>The financial system over the past ~15 years evolved around an environment of near-zero interest rates. This includes leverage, functioning of arbitrage channels and strategies that rely on leverage, new models of liquidity provision, liquidity risk of private assets, systematic investing, etc. Together, these can give rise to a self-reinforcing feedback loop of volatility-liquidity-positioning. This type of market interdependencies, which are a feature of financial markets built around a near-zero rate environment, can cause selloffs such as the one at the end of 2018 and on a number of other occasions. These financial risks can lead to contagion and are not captured by low-frequency economics (e.g., ‘Phillips curve,’ etc.). In an environment of deteriorating fundamentals, quantitative tightening and an abrupt increase of interest rates, these risks could emerge much sooner than, for example, an increase in unemployment or decrease in inflation.</blockquote><p>I do believe that in the face of declining earnings and lower GDP growth rates, the Feds will not risk sudden tightening impulses, especially now that they have committed to smaller rates for longer periods, which has resulted in the markets pricing a terminal rate of 5.1% instead of 4.8% from September.</p><h2>Trading and Investment Strategy for 2023</h2><p>I expect the S&amp;P 500 to test its June 16th low of 3,667 and the October 10th close of 3,577, by the 1st quarter of 2023. Technically, since its high of 4,797 on Jan 3rd, 2022, the S&amp;P 500 has been making lower tops and lower bottoms in a bear market and while the rallies have been fast and furious, they&#39;re also typical of bear market rallies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718f6bf5d63403b26eea383664b0e155\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500 Index (Barchart)</p><p>I believe that we are headed for a short and shallow recession in 2023, based on at least these indicators:</p><ul><li>The Yield (2 Year v 10 Year) curve is inverted at its deepest since 1981. In my opinion, Inverted yield curves are good predictors of recessions, (not infallible but right more than 65% of the time)</li><li>Oil is down more than 40% from its peak.</li><li>China reopening is still doubtful and sluggish for 2023.</li><li>US Pending home sales fell 37% YoY in October.</li><li>ISM manufacturing new orders are down for 3 consecutive months.</li></ul><p><b>I have about 25% of my portfolio in cash and plan to add 10-15% more in 2023.</b></p><p><b>S&amp;P 500</b> - I&#39;ll start nibbling around 3,650. I&#39;m not a good market timer and even though I believe 3,577 is a good support level, I believe the downside risks don&#39;t extend beyond 10% and hope to deploy 90% of cash between 3,450 and 3,650, keeping 10% for special situations. I strongly believe that the S&amp;P 500 pre Covid peak of 3,380 should hold as a key support for the index.</p><p><b>Tech Stocks</b> - I believe the focus in 2023-2024 should return to high quality tech, especially stocks that lost 50 to 70% from their peak.</p><p>NVIDIA (NVDA) - great long term investment, most innovative chip company, abundant growth opportunities. I&#39;ve owned it for a long time and recommended it in October. I got a good price around $118-$120, but am keeping a lookout to add more if it breaks $150. The stock tends to get expensive fast because it is volatile - it was over $180 just a few days ago, so keep limits.</p><p>ASML Holding (ASML) - A veritable monopoly in Ultra Violet lithographic machines, this is another buy on declines, and should do very well in the next 5-7 years.</p><p>Teradyne (TER) - Another favorite in the semi&#39;s space, part of a duopoly for Automated Test Equipment - this is still reasonably priced and I continue to add more.</p><p>Apple (AAPL) - Besieged by production issues out of China, which will resolve over time, this is also worth buying on declines.</p><p>I will also add Netflix (NFLX) on declines - I believe the advertising model has legs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> Inc. (ADBE) is a very well-managed company, also attractive even though its growth rate has slowed some.</p><p>I&#39;m not a big fan of cyclicals and in a recession they will get hit, but ABB Ltd (ABB), is well managed and holds up well in bad times - researching it in more detail.</p><h2>Conclusion - I expect the S&amp;P 500 to close at 4,151 at the end of 2023</h2><p>2023 is going to be very difficult to make money in - I guess that&#39;s a major understatement!</p><p>I have a two-year outlook - I&#39;m not trying to time the market by shorting the S&amp;P 500 to 3,500. Instead, I would prefer to be patient, setting lower limits. Assuming 2024 earnings of $237 and 2025 earnings of $256 (8% growth - around the long-term average) I expect an index of 4,607 - hoping to have some real animal spirits back in the market in 2024, instead of the &#34;will he, won&#39;t he&#34; day traders parsing Fedspeak. This returns about 1,100 on a base of 3,500 or 14.7% per year. That&#39;s a great return for the index. Returns on individual stocks, especially tech would be higher (of course, higher risk as well).</p><p>In my viewpoint, we&#39;re extremely likely to see earnings decline in 2023 and a recession - I&#39;ve actually listed a very short list of recession indicators and will expand more just on the recession in another article. Wading through weak guidance, falling home prices, higher unemployment should be gut wrenching and will require a lot of patience. However, this is not the Great Financial Crisis, nor the Volcker 70&#39;s inflation and thankfully a huge chunk of the irrational exuberance has already been taken out of the indices with the S&amp;P 500 down 21% from its high and the NASDAQ Composite down more than 30% from its all-time high. Most of the damage is done and the downside is limited, and while inflation will persist above the Fed&#39;s target, the focus will shift to staving off a recession.</p><p>I believe a P/E of 17.5 to 18 is reasonable given historical trends and <b>expect the S&amp;P 500 to close around 4,151</b> based on a 2024 EPS of $237 at the end of 2023 and 4,607 based on a 2025 EPS of $256 at the end of 2024.</p><p>Happy investing and happy holidays to all.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Poor Earnings, Shallow Recession To Drag S&P 500 Initially, But I Expect Strong Recovery To 4,151</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPoor Earnings, Shallow Recession To Drag S&P 500 Initially, But I Expect Strong Recovery To 4,151\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-27 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566328-poor-earnings-shallow-recession-s-and-p-500-lower-initially-recover-to-4151-by-year-end-2023><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI expect S&P 500 2024 forward earnings to be $237.2, which in my opinion, should fetch 17.5X, a multiple more in line with 3.5-4%, 10-year treasuries.I also expect S&P 500 earnings to decline ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566328-poor-earnings-shallow-recession-s-and-p-500-lower-initially-recover-to-4151-by-year-end-2023\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566328-poor-earnings-shallow-recession-s-and-p-500-lower-initially-recover-to-4151-by-year-end-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2294442635","content_text":"SummaryI expect S&P 500 2024 forward earnings to be $237.2, which in my opinion, should fetch 17.5X, a multiple more in line with 3.5-4%, 10-year treasuries.I also expect S&P 500 earnings to decline by 5% to about $210 in 2023 and then recover by 13% on a smaller base to $237 in 2024.In my view, the stock market in 2023 will be a trader's market, offering opportunities to both shorts and longs.I believe that the S&P should test its Oct 2022 low of 3,577 in the first 4 months of 2023.If one were to buy and hold at today's index of 3,837, the one-year return at a target of 4,151 works out to 8%, or if averaged out lower to 3,600, it works out to 15%.I Expect A Slow Burn with S&P 500 Earnings Dropping to $210 in 2023Company management and analysts have not been forthcoming enough in reducing S&P 500 (SP500) earnings estimates, and are still fostering hopes of earnings not declining significantly in 2023. It is indeed delusional as Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett puts it, that CEOs and subsequently, analysts haven't lowered 2023 and 2024 earnings estimates commensurately - even as many confidently predict a recession. I expect inflation, which caused a single digit revenue increase for S&P 500 companies to reduce gradually in 2023. The 6-8% increase in CPI and CPE throughout 2022, which depleted customers wallets, also contributed strongly to the S&P 500 top line. We paid higher at the pump and at the grocery store because companies passed along these costs to us, their customers. This is highly unlikely to happen in 2023, especially on a higher base. In fact, excess inventory and lower demand should lead to lower prices across the board.I see the slow reaction from investors and traders to lower earnings guidance as the biggest threat to the market in the first quarter of 2023. For now, however, it feels like a slow burn till Q4-22 earnings season starts in earnest in the third week of Jan 2023, when Q1-2023 and full year 2023 guidance finally tips over and the disappointment hits the markets like a freight train.It is not that analysts have been sleeping, they did mark earnings down 5.6% for Q4 2022 in October and November.According to FactSet the Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q4 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 5.6% (to $54.58 from $57.79) from September 30 to November 30. Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first two months of the fourth quarter was larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average. The fourth quarter also marked the largest decrease in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter since Q2 2020 (-35.9%).The bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2023 declined by 3.6% (to $232.52 from $241.22) from September 30 to November 30.\"As of now, in my opinion, consensus bottoms up revenue estimates of $232.52 are still way too high and don't reflect weaknesses in the energy, real estate, technology and communication sectors:Here are my S&P 500 sector specific growth rates estimates that point to a 5% lower YoY 2023 earnings of $210 compared to 2022.S&P 500 earnings By Sector (FactSet, Bloomberg, The Heisenberg Report, Fountainhead)In my opinion, these are the sectors that should weigh strongest on the S&P 500 in 2023.High oil prices, which led to a massive 100% increase in Energy earnings will see a 50% reversal to earnings in 2023 and bring its sector weighting back to the more normal 5%.Real Estate, which saw gains of 15% in 2022 should fall with the housing bust and drop 10% in 2023.Consumer cyclicals should also lose much of its inflationary gains of 2022 with tepid growth of 3% in 2023.Technology, the highest weighting, which still eked out an estimated gain of 4.8% is likely to lose about 6.3% in 2023.I Expect Growth to Resume in 2024S&P 500 Earnings Estimate 2023 (FactSet, The Heisenberg Report, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Fountainhead)I stacked up my estimates against consensus and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, whose analysts had outstanding bear calls for 2022. I'm not as bearish as Bank of America, which has an EPS estimate of just 200, but also looks for a return to growth of 10% in 2024. My own growth estimates for 2024 are higher at 13% for three reasons -a) Technology and Communications, the two biggest sectors, will return to higher growth.b) I don't anticipate the labor market to falter beyond an unemployment rate of 5.5 %c) In my view, there will be \"normal\" inflation of 3% going forward, hence I do expect it to show in the nominal earnings numbers.S&P 500 PE V Interest Rates (Current Market Valuation)A Conservative Multiple and Growth RateBased on the historical chart above, in 1995, the 10-year treasury was above 6% and then fell to a low of 2% during the Great Financial Crisis, ranging between 3.5% to 4.5% for the most part in those 15 years. During this period, the S&P 500 P/E ranged between 15 and 25 for the most part except for those two years when earnings plummeted during the GFC. The \"supposedly high\" 10-year interest rate of 3.5%, which has given investors so much consternation was \"normal\" for 15 years and we still had P/E's of 15+ during that time. Therefore, I believe that a P/E of 17.5 around the end of 2023 with a trending decline in interest rates in 2024 is not a big ask at all - if anything I may be conservative.Going forward, I'm not looking at P/E's beyond 18, which would make us guilty of a recency bias. In the greatest bond market in history, before inflation reared its ugly head, after the GFC, 10-year treasuries ranged between 2% and 4% and of course between 0.5% and 2% during COVID, which led to the S&P at 4,800 having a trailing P/E of 23 on a 2021 EPS of $209! If it looks like an asset bubble, if it walks like an asset bubble... That should be a clear warning!Also from an earnings standpoint, if you smoothen out COVID fluctuations, the 5 year 2019-2024 earnings CAGR is only 7.8%, which is consistent with the 2011-2022 growth of 7.6%. I'm not taking the higher 2009-2022 rate because post GFC the base of 62.09 was extremely low and it distorts the historical trend.S&P 500 Earnings (Fountainhead, Yahoo Finance, Yardeni)I believe The Fed Pivot is not PivotalI actually believe that the Fed pivot is not pivotal, and instead of navel-gazing as to when Powell will blink in the face of recession, we should be looking at a new, \"new normal\" of 10 year treasuries ranging between 3.75% to 4.5% in the first half of 2023 and flattening to 3.5% to 4% in Q3 and Q4 2023 with a likely decrease in 2024. As we saw from the chart above, we have survived and thrived in 3.5 to 4% interest rates - if you're not looking for outlandish \"Stimmy\" valuations! Instead I would rather focus on finding a) Great investments and b) Scouting for bargains which will be available in spades in 2023 and c) Putting strict limits to take profits when either we've reached our price target or the market has given it an absurd valuation.I expect the Fed's 2% Target Inflation Rate To be Ditched - Live With the New NormalI believe the Fed will explicitly or implicitly ditch its 2% target inflation rate. With the PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) running at 6% Year on Year, it doesn't make sense to target 2% knowing that you'd have to set a nominal interest rate of 8% to reach that target. The PCE actually peaked at a 7% YoY increase in June 2022 and while confident of a decline, I don't believe it will go below 3-4% for the most part of 2023. Wage and shelter inflation are far stickier than commodity and supply chain inflation.We tend to forget that the Fed hikes have a limited impact - their biggest impact and effectiveness is in pricking asset bubbles, ironically the same ones that they helped create! And to a large extent, in 2022 the markets have been punished for irrational exuberance, for buying the dip and paying excessive multiples without realizing that interest rates cannot stay at zero forever.To that extent and if that is their mandate - they have been successful in spades. Every asset class has dropped in 2022.Forget about the pivots and when the Feds will stop increasing rates; I think the focus should be to accept that inflation is not likely to reduce in a hurry - I don’t believe the Feds can actually reduce wage growth way the way they can puncture asset bubbles.The Feds also have a hard time fighting inflation caused by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. For example, the Fed can do little to influence oil prices, which are again dictated by the monopolistic OPEC. Sure, higher interest rates make capital investment more expensive, thereby preventing over capacity, but simply not making capital available also has the opposite effect - you are reducing capital expenditure, which means existing manufacturers or material producers and miners can charge more without worrying about new capacity coming up soon again. I don’t believe higher interest rates are going to reduce material and commodity prices in a big way. It’s counterproductive.To the Fed's credit - it is crucial to understand that the Fed is seen to be fighting inflation. Entrenched inflation expectations are worse because they predicate human behavior, which means instead of spending, we hoard since we expect prices to go up even further, which then creates a vicious inflationary spiral. Or we postpone, which reduces demand in the economy, not because prices have gone up recently, but we want to buy when things are cheaper. Besides, the Fed has to be that one institution, which should be seen as winning the fight on inflation - even if they attack in a \"whack a mole\" fashion. I believe the outcomes will be selective and the biggest influence will be on asset prices, and with more than a 30% drop in the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP.IND) and 20% in the S&P 500 the Fed has already achieved that.The Fed has also done a reasonable job in reducing the housing bubble. With mortgage rates ratcheting to over 7 percent, it has shaken out a fair amount of excessive speculation. The Fed's second goal was to reduce shelter inflation/renters inflation, which usually occurs with a time lag, and I believe this should happen in Q2 of 2023, simply because leases are annual affairs and will show up in the statistics with a lag even if this is already happening. Shelter inflation is the biggest part of our monthly budget and we should see some improvements in 2023, which will continue to reduce inflation.The last frontier - High wages. As unfortunate as it sounds, the Fed has a mandate to reduce jobs to meet their inflation targets. Currently, they expect the unemployment rate to increase to about 5% from the existing 3.6%. However, I believe wage inflation will be stubborn because a) there has been a labor shortfall because of a marked decrease in immigration due to COVID and b) there has been a steady outflow of labor from the market due to early retirement and a reluctance to work in COVID like conditions. We still have 1.9 positions to 1 available person based on JOLTS reports (Job Openings to Labor Turnover). I suspect that the Fed will baulk at achieving this target - the specter of a recession and joblessness will outweigh the need to bring inflation to the targeted rate, there will be political pressure as we head to an election year in 2024 and lastly, Fed members are old enough to remember the jobless recovery of the Obama years - higher unemployment is not a desired outcome. It takes years to recover from that!The Fed also needs to be careful to avoid overtightening impulsesIt is so difficult to wean off our dependency on ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and the Feds need to ensure that we in the US don't have the same fallout the UK did when pension funds suddenly had no buyers or liquidity before the Reserve Bank of England stepped in. To quote Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Strategist of JP Morgan Chase on the same...The financial system over the past ~15 years evolved around an environment of near-zero interest rates. This includes leverage, functioning of arbitrage channels and strategies that rely on leverage, new models of liquidity provision, liquidity risk of private assets, systematic investing, etc. Together, these can give rise to a self-reinforcing feedback loop of volatility-liquidity-positioning. This type of market interdependencies, which are a feature of financial markets built around a near-zero rate environment, can cause selloffs such as the one at the end of 2018 and on a number of other occasions. These financial risks can lead to contagion and are not captured by low-frequency economics (e.g., ‘Phillips curve,’ etc.). In an environment of deteriorating fundamentals, quantitative tightening and an abrupt increase of interest rates, these risks could emerge much sooner than, for example, an increase in unemployment or decrease in inflation.I do believe that in the face of declining earnings and lower GDP growth rates, the Feds will not risk sudden tightening impulses, especially now that they have committed to smaller rates for longer periods, which has resulted in the markets pricing a terminal rate of 5.1% instead of 4.8% from September.Trading and Investment Strategy for 2023I expect the S&P 500 to test its June 16th low of 3,667 and the October 10th close of 3,577, by the 1st quarter of 2023. Technically, since its high of 4,797 on Jan 3rd, 2022, the S&P 500 has been making lower tops and lower bottoms in a bear market and while the rallies have been fast and furious, they're also typical of bear market rallies.S&P 500 Index (Barchart)I believe that we are headed for a short and shallow recession in 2023, based on at least these indicators:The Yield (2 Year v 10 Year) curve is inverted at its deepest since 1981. In my opinion, Inverted yield curves are good predictors of recessions, (not infallible but right more than 65% of the time)Oil is down more than 40% from its peak.China reopening is still doubtful and sluggish for 2023.US Pending home sales fell 37% YoY in October.ISM manufacturing new orders are down for 3 consecutive months.I have about 25% of my portfolio in cash and plan to add 10-15% more in 2023.S&P 500 - I'll start nibbling around 3,650. I'm not a good market timer and even though I believe 3,577 is a good support level, I believe the downside risks don't extend beyond 10% and hope to deploy 90% of cash between 3,450 and 3,650, keeping 10% for special situations. I strongly believe that the S&P 500 pre Covid peak of 3,380 should hold as a key support for the index.Tech Stocks - I believe the focus in 2023-2024 should return to high quality tech, especially stocks that lost 50 to 70% from their peak.NVIDIA (NVDA) - great long term investment, most innovative chip company, abundant growth opportunities. I've owned it for a long time and recommended it in October. I got a good price around $118-$120, but am keeping a lookout to add more if it breaks $150. The stock tends to get expensive fast because it is volatile - it was over $180 just a few days ago, so keep limits.ASML Holding (ASML) - A veritable monopoly in Ultra Violet lithographic machines, this is another buy on declines, and should do very well in the next 5-7 years.Teradyne (TER) - Another favorite in the semi's space, part of a duopoly for Automated Test Equipment - this is still reasonably priced and I continue to add more.Apple (AAPL) - Besieged by production issues out of China, which will resolve over time, this is also worth buying on declines.I will also add Netflix (NFLX) on declines - I believe the advertising model has legs. Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is a very well-managed company, also attractive even though its growth rate has slowed some.I'm not a big fan of cyclicals and in a recession they will get hit, but ABB Ltd (ABB), is well managed and holds up well in bad times - researching it in more detail.Conclusion - I expect the S&P 500 to close at 4,151 at the end of 20232023 is going to be very difficult to make money in - I guess that's a major understatement!I have a two-year outlook - I'm not trying to time the market by shorting the S&P 500 to 3,500. Instead, I would prefer to be patient, setting lower limits. Assuming 2024 earnings of $237 and 2025 earnings of $256 (8% growth - around the long-term average) I expect an index of 4,607 - hoping to have some real animal spirits back in the market in 2024, instead of the \"will he, won't he\" day traders parsing Fedspeak. This returns about 1,100 on a base of 3,500 or 14.7% per year. That's a great return for the index. Returns on individual stocks, especially tech would be higher (of course, higher risk as well).In my viewpoint, we're extremely likely to see earnings decline in 2023 and a recession - I've actually listed a very short list of recession indicators and will expand more just on the recession in another article. Wading through weak guidance, falling home prices, higher unemployment should be gut wrenching and will require a lot of patience. However, this is not the Great Financial Crisis, nor the Volcker 70's inflation and thankfully a huge chunk of the irrational exuberance has already been taken out of the indices with the S&P 500 down 21% from its high and the NASDAQ Composite down more than 30% from its all-time high. Most of the damage is done and the downside is limited, and while inflation will persist above the Fed's target, the focus will shift to staving off a recession.I believe a P/E of 17.5 to 18 is reasonable given historical trends and expect the S&P 500 to close around 4,151 based on a 2024 EPS of $237 at the end of 2023 and 4,607 based on a 2025 EPS of $256 at the end of 2024.Happy investing and happy holidays to all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920204564,"gmtCreate":1670494798359,"gmtModify":1676538379907,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting.","listText":"Interesting.","text":"Interesting.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920204564","repostId":"2289551436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289551436","pubTimestamp":1670513832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2289551436?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-08 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in December, According to OpenAI's Amazing New ChatBot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289551436","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are the top dividend picks from an impressive new AI system.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;Scary good.&#34; That&#39;s Elon Musk&#39;s description of OpenAI&#39;s new prototype ChatGPT chatbot in a tweet over the weekend. He added, &#34;We are not far from dangerously strong AI.&#34;</p><p>Whether or not you agree with Musk&#39;s fear about the threat presented by artificial intelligence, he&#39;s on the mark with his view about how good ChatGPT is. I&#39;ve had multiple lengthy conversations with the new chatbot over the past few days. The discussions ranged from economic theory to how to address major global problems to what Ben Franklin would think about the modern world if he time-traveled to the present. I was impressed by ChatGPT&#39;s responses.</p><p>Because I write about investing, I couldn&#39;t help but bring the topic up with my AI pal. I thought I&#39;d share some insights gathered from one of our conversations. Here are the three best high-yield dividend stocks to buy in December, according to OpenAI&#39;s amazing new chatbot.</p><h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ET\">Energy Transfer LP</a></h2><p>ChatGPT&#39;s first recommendation was <b>Energy Transfer LP</b>. I should note, though, that the chatbot said that its list of recommendations wasn&#39;t sorted in any way (although they&#39;re in alphabetical order).</p><p>Energy Transfer LP ranks as one of the largest midstream energy companies in the world. The company exports nearly 20% of global natural gas liquids -- more than any other company (or any country, for that matter).</p><p>Why did ChatGPT like this stock? For one thing, it has a high-distribution yield that currently tops 8.5%. Energy Transfer has a solid history of paying distributions. The company is strong financially with a diversified portfolio of assets including pipelines, storage facilities, and terminals. The AI system also felt that Energy Transfer has a good management team with a track record of success.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">Realty Income Corp</a>.</h2><p><b>Realty Income Corp.</b> was the second high-yield dividend stock on ChatGPT&#39;s list. It&#39;s one of the five largest real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the U.S. Realty Income&#39;s tenants include dollar stores, convenience stores, grocery stores, restaurants, and more.</p><p>ChatGPT quickly pointed out that Realty Income has a high-dividend yield and a strong history of dividend growth. It&#39;s right on both points. The REIT&#39;s dividend yield currently stands above 4.7%. Realty Income is also a Dividend Aristocrat with 27 consecutive years of dividend increases.</p><p>Realty Income&#39;s dividend program wasn&#39;t the only plus for the stock in ChatGPT&#39;s view, though. The chatbot also liked the company&#39;s historical financial strength and diversified portfolio of properties.</p><h2>3. Shell plc</h2><p>Technically, ChatGPT recommended Royal Dutch Shell as its third pick. But the AI system&#39;s training data only went through in late 2021. Royal Dutch Shell changed its name to <b>Shell plc </b>in January 2022. The rationale for choosing this stock is still applicable, though.</p><p>Obviously, the chatbot thought highly of Shell&#39;s dividend. The company&#39;s dividend yield is nearly 3.5% today but was probably a little higher than that in ChatGPT&#39;s training data. The AI system also viewed Shell&#39;s strong financial position as a positive.</p><p>In addition, ChatGPT felt that Shell&#39;s global operations could &#34;provide some diversification and resilience during uncertain economic times.&#34; The company does business in more than 70 countries worldwide.</p><h2>Intelligent picks?</h2><p>So how intelligent were the picks from OpenAI&#39;s new AI system? Overall, I think they were good.</p><p>Energy Transfer is arguably one of the best ultra-high-yield dividend stocks on the market right now. My colleague Matt Frankel wrote last month that if he could buy only one stock, it would be Realty Income. Shell has certainly been a huge winner this year and could go higher if global oil and gas supply is limited by the EU&#39;s introduction of a cap on Russian oil.</p><p>But ChatGPT wasn&#39;t perfect. For example, it noted Shell&#39;s &#34;history of consistent dividend growth.&#34; The company&#39;s actual history of dividend growth isn&#39;t anything to crow about. Also, I suspect that the recommendations might have been different if the chatbot had access to current data.</p><p>I wouldn&#39;t rely on ChatGPT for investment advice. It wouldn&#39;t advise doing so either. The AI system emphasized that it&#39;s &#34;important to thoroughly research and carefully evaluate any potential stock purchases.&#34; That&#39;s intelligent counsel for all investors.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in December, According to OpenAI's Amazing New ChatBot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in December, According to OpenAI's Amazing New ChatBot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-08 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"Scary good.\" That's Elon Musk's description of OpenAI's new prototype ChatGPT chatbot in a tweet over the weekend. He added, \"We are not far from dangerously strong AI.\"Whether or not you agree with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ET":"Energy Transfer LP","O":"Realty Income Corp","RYDAF":"SHELL PLC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/07/3-best-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-buy-in-decemb/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289551436","content_text":"\"Scary good.\" That's Elon Musk's description of OpenAI's new prototype ChatGPT chatbot in a tweet over the weekend. He added, \"We are not far from dangerously strong AI.\"Whether or not you agree with Musk's fear about the threat presented by artificial intelligence, he's on the mark with his view about how good ChatGPT is. I've had multiple lengthy conversations with the new chatbot over the past few days. The discussions ranged from economic theory to how to address major global problems to what Ben Franklin would think about the modern world if he time-traveled to the present. I was impressed by ChatGPT's responses.Because I write about investing, I couldn't help but bring the topic up with my AI pal. I thought I'd share some insights gathered from one of our conversations. Here are the three best high-yield dividend stocks to buy in December, according to OpenAI's amazing new chatbot.1. Energy Transfer LPChatGPT's first recommendation was Energy Transfer LP. I should note, though, that the chatbot said that its list of recommendations wasn't sorted in any way (although they're in alphabetical order).Energy Transfer LP ranks as one of the largest midstream energy companies in the world. The company exports nearly 20% of global natural gas liquids -- more than any other company (or any country, for that matter).Why did ChatGPT like this stock? For one thing, it has a high-distribution yield that currently tops 8.5%. Energy Transfer has a solid history of paying distributions. The company is strong financially with a diversified portfolio of assets including pipelines, storage facilities, and terminals. The AI system also felt that Energy Transfer has a good management team with a track record of success.2. Realty Income Corp.Realty Income Corp. was the second high-yield dividend stock on ChatGPT's list. It's one of the five largest real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the U.S. Realty Income's tenants include dollar stores, convenience stores, grocery stores, restaurants, and more.ChatGPT quickly pointed out that Realty Income has a high-dividend yield and a strong history of dividend growth. It's right on both points. The REIT's dividend yield currently stands above 4.7%. Realty Income is also a Dividend Aristocrat with 27 consecutive years of dividend increases.Realty Income's dividend program wasn't the only plus for the stock in ChatGPT's view, though. The chatbot also liked the company's historical financial strength and diversified portfolio of properties.3. Shell plcTechnically, ChatGPT recommended Royal Dutch Shell as its third pick. But the AI system's training data only went through in late 2021. Royal Dutch Shell changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. The rationale for choosing this stock is still applicable, though.Obviously, the chatbot thought highly of Shell's dividend. The company's dividend yield is nearly 3.5% today but was probably a little higher than that in ChatGPT's training data. The AI system also viewed Shell's strong financial position as a positive.In addition, ChatGPT felt that Shell's global operations could \"provide some diversification and resilience during uncertain economic times.\" The company does business in more than 70 countries worldwide.Intelligent picks?So how intelligent were the picks from OpenAI's new AI system? Overall, I think they were good.Energy Transfer is arguably one of the best ultra-high-yield dividend stocks on the market right now. My colleague Matt Frankel wrote last month that if he could buy only one stock, it would be Realty Income. Shell has certainly been a huge winner this year and could go higher if global oil and gas supply is limited by the EU's introduction of a cap on Russian oil.But ChatGPT wasn't perfect. For example, it noted Shell's \"history of consistent dividend growth.\" The company's actual history of dividend growth isn't anything to crow about. Also, I suspect that the recommendations might have been different if the chatbot had access to current data.I wouldn't rely on ChatGPT for investment advice. It wouldn't advise doing so either. The AI system emphasized that it's \"important to thoroughly research and carefully evaluate any potential stock purchases.\" That's intelligent counsel for all investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949854271,"gmtCreate":1678518140594,"gmtModify":1678518144670,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read. Cheers.","listText":"Good read. Cheers.","text":"Good read. Cheers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949854271","repostId":"2318756893","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940099108,"gmtCreate":1677584067805,"gmtModify":1677584072796,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yepp. Stacking chips 😉","listText":"Yepp. Stacking chips 😉","text":"Yepp. Stacking chips 😉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940099108","repostId":"1113839894","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949190433,"gmtCreate":1678411368223,"gmtModify":1678411372068,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All the best! 🧐","listText":"All the best! 🧐","text":"All the best! 🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949190433","repostId":"1167818913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957981686,"gmtCreate":1676895384245,"gmtModify":1676895387550,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yepp.","listText":"Yepp.","text":"Yepp.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957981686","repostId":"2312207897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954926466,"gmtCreate":1675941625055,"gmtModify":1675941628556,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read.","listText":"Good read.","text":"Good read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954926466","repostId":"2310571101","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2310571101","pubTimestamp":1675940608,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2310571101?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-09 19:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta: This Is A Game Changer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2310571101","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment ThesisIn light of a potential economic crisis, advertising seems to be growing more cauti","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p>In light of a potential economic crisis, advertising seems to be growing more cautious. However, despite currency challenges, macro uncertainty, and a slowdown in overall digital advertising growth, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (NASDAQ: META) posted better-than-expected Q4 results.</p><p>Despite Meta&#39;s challenges since 2018, such as Apple&#39;s (AAPL) attempts to protect user privacy with App Tracking Transparency, a decline in ad revenue, considerable investments in the Metaverse, and regulatory scrutiny, the headwinds have already been reflected in the stock price. META has already bottomed out around $88-$89.</p><p>Not surprisingly, META has rebounded massively in the past month, significantly contributing to our model portfolio&#39;s gains and delivering a 114% RoI in two months. Despite the strong bull run, I stay bullish on META on my personal and model portfolios, as the investment thesis remains intact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4169d23279271350ca574cab866ff3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Yiazou Model Portfolio</p><h2>Cyclicality Kicks In With Cautious Optimism</h2><p>Meta&#39;s revenue for 2022 dropped slightly to $116.6 billion, a 1.1% YoY decrease, but the number of active users on Meta maintained a rising trajectory. Favorably, user engagement increased YoY as daily user growth exceeded monthly user growth for Facebook and its family of apps ((FoA)). Meta&#39;s outlook has slightly improved following management&#39;s revenue guidance of $26-$28.5 billion in the first quarter, the new $40 billion stock repurchase plan, and the revised spending plan down to $89-$95 billion. The cost-efficiency news relieved investors and caused a spike of more than 20% in the stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c6ccf53600d1785ad2fffd0165d54a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meta&#39;s 10-K 2022</p><p>Undoubtedly, advertising spending will slow in 2023 due to rising interest rates, inflation, and the sluggish global economy. As we all know, the ad business experiences ups and downs in a repeated pattern, known as cyclicality. For example, when the economy is strong, businesses have more resources to allocate toward advertising and demand for ad space increases. Conversely, ad spending decreases during economic downturns as companies tighten their budgets. This creates a cyclical pattern of increased and decreased demand for advertising services.</p><p>According to Magna, worldwide advertising revenue will increase by roughly 5% to $833 billion in 2023 from 7% in 2022, GroupM and Dentsu anticipate slightly faster growth in 2023. On the contrary, according to Insider Intelligence, they expect a 10.5% digital ad growth in 2023. Most businesses claim that rising inflationary pressures are driving down levels of marketing investment. At the same time, marketers at smaller companies report a rise in marketing spending, and marketing leaders in large companies report a decrease in marketing spending due to inflation. Nevertheless, using the midpoint of Meta&#39;s revenue guidance for Q1, the $27.25 billion suggest a drop of 1.68% QoQ, setting a relatively easy target to beat.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da25ce84f31a827e2f972dcd9b6ac3f0\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.insiderintelligence.com</p><h2>Contextual Targeting Is Becoming A Thing</h2><p>Delivering relevant advertisements to consumers based on the context of the content they are now seeing or engaging with is a technique known as contextual targeting in advertising. By aligning the context of the content with the goods or services sold, advertisers may make sure that the ads they display are pertinent to the interests of the customers they want to attract.</p><p>For instance, a reader of a food article would see advertisements for cooking tools or ingredients, whereas a reader of a sports article might see advertisements for sporting goods. Contextual targeting aims to improve the ads&#39; relevance and attractiveness to the target market, increasing the likelihood that the campaign will succeed.</p><p>The demand for first-party data is one of the ad tech trends that will persist in 2023. Marketers have been anticipating the same for Chrome users for a few years now as Firefox and Safari have begun to restrict third-party cookies on their respective browsers. Because of this, several companies have already begun to collect and use their first-party data (1P). 1P data is of higher quality and aids in understanding the customer&#39;s needs. Meta has now developed more AI/ML tools to support contextual targeting, which are expected to significantly improve its ads&#39; relevance.</p><p>Meta&#39;s top line will continue seeing headwinds due to privacy changes IDFA/ATT. However, management has mitigated the impact through various advertising options, such as ad formats that encourage conversions on-site and longer-term AI investments in privacy-enhancing technology. As a result of those efforts, advertisers saw over 20% more conversions than the previous year in the most recent quarter, which has led to increased returns on ad spending and lower acquisition costs.</p><h2>FoA &amp; The Metaverse</h2><p>While the FoA has a sizable user base, in 2022, there were more than 2.93 billion monthly active users (MAU) globally. However, most of the monetization was driven by the US and Canadian users, which reported an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $58.77 in Q4, a nearly 20% QoQ increase. Undoubtedly, nations like the US and Canada have much bigger advertising budgets than other nations in Asia or Eastern Europe, especially given their higher GDP per capita.</p><p>Because they anticipate a strong RoI from these targeted efforts, advertisers are willing to pay more for advertisements, as evidenced by Meta&#39;s ARPU. In addition, incorporating artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and augmented reality technology into various goods may further boost Meta user engagement and future ad revenue development. As a result, despite the minor drop of 3.3% in ARPU YoY, Meta has achieved an impressive 11-Year CAGR of 20.7% since 2011, and the positive trend should persist.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7517ac22f78310580db3bc21ff6915d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Yiazou Capital Research</p><p>Meta has strategically opted out from putting Reels advertisements since they want to promote its growth. As a result, Reels&#39; growth has exploded recently, and as it gains more traction, Meta is getting closer to monetization, which will substantially boost the overall ARPU in the foreseeable future.</p><p>Since 2008, a cyclical pattern in Facebook&#39;s revenue seems to coincide with the US Presidential elections, as the previous three cycles appear to be correlated. The income growth for Facebook seems to peak in the year following the elections before leveling down for the remainder of the president&#39;s term. In addition, the Democratic Governors Association used Facebook for almost 75% of its advertising budget in the 2020 election season, capitalizing on the app&#39;s popularity and high targeting offerings. As a result, I expect the elections to meaningfully boost Meta&#39;s revenues in the next 2-3 years.</p><h2>Meta Can Regain Its Competitive Position</h2><p>TikTok has grown to be the largest threat to Meta&#39;s supremacy despite having a very low ad revenue. The fact that TikTok is the fastest-growing entertainment app in terms of popularity and downloads provides a clear understanding of its expanding popularity and danger to Meta.</p><p>More than 140 billion Reels are played daily on Facebook and Instagram, and Reels plays and resharings on Facebook and Instagram &#34;have more than doubled over the last year,&#34; Increased engagement led to a 23% increase in impression sales over the previous year, partially offset by a 22% drop in average ad prices due to rising supply and weak demand. Due to lower ad pricing, user monetization was down 8% from the previous year.</p><p>Additionally, one of the most important KPIs is the average time spent (ATS), and TikTok has shown that it may divert attention from other social networks. TikTok has done an excellent job of getting users addicted to short videos for amusement, and in 2022, users spent nearly 46 minutes on the app daily. Comparatively, Meta&#39;s FoA reported ATS for Facebook and Instagram of around 30 minutes each for the same period.</p><p>Moving into 2024, TikTok will continue its momentum but at a slower rate, and it is expected to capture 18.6% of the overall time spent on social media. On the contrary, Facebook&#39;s ATS will shrink to 22.4% in 2024 from 35.3% in 2019, but Instagram is expected to rebound, competing head-to-head with TikTok at 18.6%. According to eMarketer, Meta will protect its competitive position in the foreseeable future, as in 2024, its FoA (Facebook and Instagram) is expected to account for 41% of the ATS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1f2897e2ddb8aa7f2afd424223a99a\" tg-width=\"470\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.insiderintelligence.com</p><p>Millennials were drawn by Facebook and Instagram when they were teenagers, but TikTok has won the Gen Z era. As a result, Meta is now fighting back to win young users, but how? Younger generations of Gen Z and Alpha are undoubtedly growing up in proto-metaverses. For instance, in 2020, 54.86% of daily active Roblox users were under 13. So it&#39;s not surprising to see consumer brands and major tech companies doubling down on Metaverse because these high-value, youthful consumers are difficult to reach through conventional marketing strategies and social media. As an alternative to Twitch, Meta Platforms has been paying videogamers since 2018 to stream their gameplay on Facebook. However, in this new time of austerity, Meta is reducing those payouts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95615cfa35221cc198507ecb73334e4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.newzoo.com</p><p>As we already know, Gen Z and younger generations are more likely to use newer social media sites like TikTok and not Facebook or Instagram. Specifically, Facebook&#39;s user base is aging in the West, even if it is still quite popular in developing nations like India and Africa, with Millenials and Gen Z Facebook users in the US capturing nearly 42% of total users. So, not surprisingly, younger generations are not on Facebook, the same also applies to Instagram, but Meta has recognized this early, and its move towards Metaverse years ago proves Zuckerberg&#39;s visions and deep understanding of user behavior and trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6569ab448d351c382006fe86b2684f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.statista.com</p><p>Zuckerberg knows that Meta can only regain ground by targeting the new generation of the 13-17 age group. Not surprisingly, according to a new report from WSJ, Meta is redesigning its infant Horizon Worlds metaverse app to attract more teenagers and young adults. Additionally, Meta&#39;s Joel Osbourne has recently stated that:</p><blockquote>Teens are already spending time in a variety of VR experiences on Quest, and we want to ensure that we can provide them with a great experience in Horizon Worlds as well, with age-appropriate tools and protections in place,</blockquote><p>To increase user growth and retention, Meta works with outside studios to create new worlds and experiences for Horizon. This is a crucial component of its strategy, and one of the key goals for the first half of 2023 is to increase user retention, especially among teens and young adults.</p><p>For 2022, the company&#39;s reality labs division, which comprises consumer hardware, software, and content for augmented and virtual reality, recorded an operating loss of $9.4 billion. Nevertheless, Meta appears determined to prioritize the reality labs segment despite this appalling performance. Targeting the younger generation remains vital for Meta&#39;s future, and Horizon Worlds&#39; progress will strongly support the company&#39;s ambitious plans.</p><h2>Cost Efficiency Plan Relieves Investors</h2><p>With its revised cost-cutting strategy for 2023, which was reduced from $94–$100 billion to $89–$95 billion, the company&#39;s forecast also demonstrated a renewed focus on cost control and cost-cutting. In addition, due to switching to a more cost-effective strategy, management also reduced its CapEx forecast for the year, stating it would only spend $30 to $33 billion, down $4 billion from its previous estimate.</p><p>Zuckerburg will try to flatten Meta&#39;s organizational structure, eliminate middle management, and use AI tools to assist engineers in working more efficiently. Moreover, the $4.2 billion in restructuring costs for severance and related expenses, as well as the closing of several of its offices and data centers, were incurred during the quarter. The severance costs reflect the company&#39;s earlier choice to eliminate 11,000 employees.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e55a687cb17150c44386e6038343fc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2>Valuation Remains Attractive</h2><p>In the following 2-3 years, we expect a rerating in META&#39;s P/E multiple, derived from a combination of higher EPS due to growth and reduced expenses. Assuming a moderate annual growth of 2-3% in 2023, with a strong rebound in 2024-2025 of 15%+ annual growth (in light of US presidential elections, Reels/WhatsApp monetization, and cyclicality effect), META can regain valuation ground and trade at a P/E of 25-30x, implying a target price of $215-$257.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b254741ad44551f4ffeb056e5de1f5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Meta spent $6.9 billion on repurchasing its Class A common shares in Q4 bringing the total amount of shares it has purchased this year to $27.9 billion. They had a remaining authorization for repurchases of $10.9 billion as of December 31, 2022. Over the past three years, the average buyback yield was around 4.5%, but the recently announced plan of an additional $40 billion in buybacks expanded to nearly $51 billion or around 10% of the current market cap.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af44ac2a6122ad3d11ce21bab6235679\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2>Concluding Thoughts</h2><p>Meta strives for control over its business model in the long run, and the only way to achieve that is by reinventing its data supply chain from the ground up. Unfortunately, Meta mainly relies on the mobile distribution pipelines of Apple and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL), and the recent privacy changes are impacting the company&#39;s business model, exposing its vulnerabilities. Indeed, Meta doesn&#39;t operate a mobile marketplace like Apple and Google, and Zuckerberg&#39;s attempt to create his data supply chain in the future (from hardware to software, operating system, and marketplace on top of which users experience the brand) is the only way to regain supremacy and make Meta an absolute near monopoly powerhouse.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta: This Is A Game Changer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta: This Is A Game Changer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-09 19:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4576399-meta-this-is-a-game-changer><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisIn light of a potential economic crisis, advertising seems to be growing more cautious. However, despite currency challenges, macro uncertainty, and a slowdown in overall digital ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4576399-meta-this-is-a-game-changer\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4576399-meta-this-is-a-game-changer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2310571101","content_text":"Investment ThesisIn light of a potential economic crisis, advertising seems to be growing more cautious. However, despite currency challenges, macro uncertainty, and a slowdown in overall digital advertising growth, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) posted better-than-expected Q4 results.Despite Meta's challenges since 2018, such as Apple's (AAPL) attempts to protect user privacy with App Tracking Transparency, a decline in ad revenue, considerable investments in the Metaverse, and regulatory scrutiny, the headwinds have already been reflected in the stock price. META has already bottomed out around $88-$89.Not surprisingly, META has rebounded massively in the past month, significantly contributing to our model portfolio's gains and delivering a 114% RoI in two months. Despite the strong bull run, I stay bullish on META on my personal and model portfolios, as the investment thesis remains intact.Yiazou Model PortfolioCyclicality Kicks In With Cautious OptimismMeta's revenue for 2022 dropped slightly to $116.6 billion, a 1.1% YoY decrease, but the number of active users on Meta maintained a rising trajectory. Favorably, user engagement increased YoY as daily user growth exceeded monthly user growth for Facebook and its family of apps ((FoA)). Meta's outlook has slightly improved following management's revenue guidance of $26-$28.5 billion in the first quarter, the new $40 billion stock repurchase plan, and the revised spending plan down to $89-$95 billion. The cost-efficiency news relieved investors and caused a spike of more than 20% in the stock price.Meta's 10-K 2022Undoubtedly, advertising spending will slow in 2023 due to rising interest rates, inflation, and the sluggish global economy. As we all know, the ad business experiences ups and downs in a repeated pattern, known as cyclicality. For example, when the economy is strong, businesses have more resources to allocate toward advertising and demand for ad space increases. Conversely, ad spending decreases during economic downturns as companies tighten their budgets. This creates a cyclical pattern of increased and decreased demand for advertising services.According to Magna, worldwide advertising revenue will increase by roughly 5% to $833 billion in 2023 from 7% in 2022, GroupM and Dentsu anticipate slightly faster growth in 2023. On the contrary, according to Insider Intelligence, they expect a 10.5% digital ad growth in 2023. Most businesses claim that rising inflationary pressures are driving down levels of marketing investment. At the same time, marketers at smaller companies report a rise in marketing spending, and marketing leaders in large companies report a decrease in marketing spending due to inflation. Nevertheless, using the midpoint of Meta's revenue guidance for Q1, the $27.25 billion suggest a drop of 1.68% QoQ, setting a relatively easy target to beat.www.insiderintelligence.comContextual Targeting Is Becoming A ThingDelivering relevant advertisements to consumers based on the context of the content they are now seeing or engaging with is a technique known as contextual targeting in advertising. By aligning the context of the content with the goods or services sold, advertisers may make sure that the ads they display are pertinent to the interests of the customers they want to attract.For instance, a reader of a food article would see advertisements for cooking tools or ingredients, whereas a reader of a sports article might see advertisements for sporting goods. Contextual targeting aims to improve the ads' relevance and attractiveness to the target market, increasing the likelihood that the campaign will succeed.The demand for first-party data is one of the ad tech trends that will persist in 2023. Marketers have been anticipating the same for Chrome users for a few years now as Firefox and Safari have begun to restrict third-party cookies on their respective browsers. Because of this, several companies have already begun to collect and use their first-party data (1P). 1P data is of higher quality and aids in understanding the customer's needs. Meta has now developed more AI/ML tools to support contextual targeting, which are expected to significantly improve its ads' relevance.Meta's top line will continue seeing headwinds due to privacy changes IDFA/ATT. However, management has mitigated the impact through various advertising options, such as ad formats that encourage conversions on-site and longer-term AI investments in privacy-enhancing technology. As a result of those efforts, advertisers saw over 20% more conversions than the previous year in the most recent quarter, which has led to increased returns on ad spending and lower acquisition costs.FoA & The MetaverseWhile the FoA has a sizable user base, in 2022, there were more than 2.93 billion monthly active users (MAU) globally. However, most of the monetization was driven by the US and Canadian users, which reported an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $58.77 in Q4, a nearly 20% QoQ increase. Undoubtedly, nations like the US and Canada have much bigger advertising budgets than other nations in Asia or Eastern Europe, especially given their higher GDP per capita.Because they anticipate a strong RoI from these targeted efforts, advertisers are willing to pay more for advertisements, as evidenced by Meta's ARPU. In addition, incorporating artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and augmented reality technology into various goods may further boost Meta user engagement and future ad revenue development. As a result, despite the minor drop of 3.3% in ARPU YoY, Meta has achieved an impressive 11-Year CAGR of 20.7% since 2011, and the positive trend should persist.Yiazou Capital ResearchMeta has strategically opted out from putting Reels advertisements since they want to promote its growth. As a result, Reels' growth has exploded recently, and as it gains more traction, Meta is getting closer to monetization, which will substantially boost the overall ARPU in the foreseeable future.Since 2008, a cyclical pattern in Facebook's revenue seems to coincide with the US Presidential elections, as the previous three cycles appear to be correlated. The income growth for Facebook seems to peak in the year following the elections before leveling down for the remainder of the president's term. In addition, the Democratic Governors Association used Facebook for almost 75% of its advertising budget in the 2020 election season, capitalizing on the app's popularity and high targeting offerings. As a result, I expect the elections to meaningfully boost Meta's revenues in the next 2-3 years.Meta Can Regain Its Competitive PositionTikTok has grown to be the largest threat to Meta's supremacy despite having a very low ad revenue. The fact that TikTok is the fastest-growing entertainment app in terms of popularity and downloads provides a clear understanding of its expanding popularity and danger to Meta.More than 140 billion Reels are played daily on Facebook and Instagram, and Reels plays and resharings on Facebook and Instagram \"have more than doubled over the last year,\" Increased engagement led to a 23% increase in impression sales over the previous year, partially offset by a 22% drop in average ad prices due to rising supply and weak demand. Due to lower ad pricing, user monetization was down 8% from the previous year.Additionally, one of the most important KPIs is the average time spent (ATS), and TikTok has shown that it may divert attention from other social networks. TikTok has done an excellent job of getting users addicted to short videos for amusement, and in 2022, users spent nearly 46 minutes on the app daily. Comparatively, Meta's FoA reported ATS for Facebook and Instagram of around 30 minutes each for the same period.Moving into 2024, TikTok will continue its momentum but at a slower rate, and it is expected to capture 18.6% of the overall time spent on social media. On the contrary, Facebook's ATS will shrink to 22.4% in 2024 from 35.3% in 2019, but Instagram is expected to rebound, competing head-to-head with TikTok at 18.6%. According to eMarketer, Meta will protect its competitive position in the foreseeable future, as in 2024, its FoA (Facebook and Instagram) is expected to account for 41% of the ATS.www.insiderintelligence.comMillennials were drawn by Facebook and Instagram when they were teenagers, but TikTok has won the Gen Z era. As a result, Meta is now fighting back to win young users, but how? Younger generations of Gen Z and Alpha are undoubtedly growing up in proto-metaverses. For instance, in 2020, 54.86% of daily active Roblox users were under 13. So it's not surprising to see consumer brands and major tech companies doubling down on Metaverse because these high-value, youthful consumers are difficult to reach through conventional marketing strategies and social media. As an alternative to Twitch, Meta Platforms has been paying videogamers since 2018 to stream their gameplay on Facebook. However, in this new time of austerity, Meta is reducing those payouts.www.newzoo.comAs we already know, Gen Z and younger generations are more likely to use newer social media sites like TikTok and not Facebook or Instagram. Specifically, Facebook's user base is aging in the West, even if it is still quite popular in developing nations like India and Africa, with Millenials and Gen Z Facebook users in the US capturing nearly 42% of total users. So, not surprisingly, younger generations are not on Facebook, the same also applies to Instagram, but Meta has recognized this early, and its move towards Metaverse years ago proves Zuckerberg's visions and deep understanding of user behavior and trends.www.statista.comZuckerberg knows that Meta can only regain ground by targeting the new generation of the 13-17 age group. Not surprisingly, according to a new report from WSJ, Meta is redesigning its infant Horizon Worlds metaverse app to attract more teenagers and young adults. Additionally, Meta's Joel Osbourne has recently stated that:Teens are already spending time in a variety of VR experiences on Quest, and we want to ensure that we can provide them with a great experience in Horizon Worlds as well, with age-appropriate tools and protections in place,To increase user growth and retention, Meta works with outside studios to create new worlds and experiences for Horizon. This is a crucial component of its strategy, and one of the key goals for the first half of 2023 is to increase user retention, especially among teens and young adults.For 2022, the company's reality labs division, which comprises consumer hardware, software, and content for augmented and virtual reality, recorded an operating loss of $9.4 billion. Nevertheless, Meta appears determined to prioritize the reality labs segment despite this appalling performance. Targeting the younger generation remains vital for Meta's future, and Horizon Worlds' progress will strongly support the company's ambitious plans.Cost Efficiency Plan Relieves InvestorsWith its revised cost-cutting strategy for 2023, which was reduced from $94–$100 billion to $89–$95 billion, the company's forecast also demonstrated a renewed focus on cost control and cost-cutting. In addition, due to switching to a more cost-effective strategy, management also reduced its CapEx forecast for the year, stating it would only spend $30 to $33 billion, down $4 billion from its previous estimate.Zuckerburg will try to flatten Meta's organizational structure, eliminate middle management, and use AI tools to assist engineers in working more efficiently. Moreover, the $4.2 billion in restructuring costs for severance and related expenses, as well as the closing of several of its offices and data centers, were incurred during the quarter. The severance costs reflect the company's earlier choice to eliminate 11,000 employees.Data by YChartsValuation Remains AttractiveIn the following 2-3 years, we expect a rerating in META's P/E multiple, derived from a combination of higher EPS due to growth and reduced expenses. Assuming a moderate annual growth of 2-3% in 2023, with a strong rebound in 2024-2025 of 15%+ annual growth (in light of US presidential elections, Reels/WhatsApp monetization, and cyclicality effect), META can regain valuation ground and trade at a P/E of 25-30x, implying a target price of $215-$257.Data by YChartsMeta spent $6.9 billion on repurchasing its Class A common shares in Q4 bringing the total amount of shares it has purchased this year to $27.9 billion. They had a remaining authorization for repurchases of $10.9 billion as of December 31, 2022. Over the past three years, the average buyback yield was around 4.5%, but the recently announced plan of an additional $40 billion in buybacks expanded to nearly $51 billion or around 10% of the current market cap.Data by YChartsConcluding ThoughtsMeta strives for control over its business model in the long run, and the only way to achieve that is by reinventing its data supply chain from the ground up. Unfortunately, Meta mainly relies on the mobile distribution pipelines of Apple and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL), and the recent privacy changes are impacting the company's business model, exposing its vulnerabilities. Indeed, Meta doesn't operate a mobile marketplace like Apple and Google, and Zuckerberg's attempt to create his data supply chain in the future (from hardware to software, operating system, and marketplace on top of which users experience the brand) is the only way to regain supremacy and make Meta an absolute near monopoly powerhouse.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954931561,"gmtCreate":1675907754754,"gmtModify":1675907758532,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.","listText":"Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.","text":"Gambling spirits holding up market = red flag.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954931561","repostId":"1160843285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160843285","pubTimestamp":1675905324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160843285?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-09 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Sees \"Massive Disconnects\" in Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160843285","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sees rally in cyclicals at odds with economic, profit outlookWarns market stability in danger as gam","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Sees rally in cyclicals at odds with economic, profit outlook</li><li>Warns market stability in danger as gambling spirits creep up</li></ul><p>Stocks have rallied in the face of worsening earnings and economic expectations, producing “massive disconnects” that threaten market stability, warned Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</p><p>The chief investment officer flagged a surge in economic-sensitive shares relative to defensive stocks as a sign of the market’s confidence in future growth. Yet indicators of retail sales, manufacturing and business leaders’ confidence have been weakening along with corporate earnings.</p><p>The result, Shalett said in a note this week, is that the performance ratio of cyclical versus defensive stocks has never been as out of sync with the leading economic indicators as it is now.</p><p>While the mismatch is increasingly framed as a sign that the market is predicting a soft landing for the economy despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening, Shalett is skeptical. She attributed the latest equity rally to potentially short-term technical factors, such as short sellers buying back stocks to cover bearish positions and the seasonal tendency of investors to flock to the market’s biggest losers from the previous year.</p><p>In other words, a technical-driven rally has made the market deviate from the fundamentals.</p><p>“I’ve heard the theories that people say, ‘yes, we understand what should happen, but we’re going look through it,’” Shalett said Wednesday on Bloomberg Television. “I don’t know how far their crystal ball goes to look through it, but history is not kind to these kind of massive disconnects.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/190e34f185141a96f7d13de4e6061622\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since the start of January, an index tracking cyclical shares has jumped 13%, compared with a decline of 2% from the defensive cohort. Meanwhile, analyst estimates for S&amp;P 500 profit growth has turned negative, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.</p><p>Moreover, the stock-market advance that has lifted the S&amp;P 500 as much as 17% from its October low has contributed to an easing in financial conditions — a development that some see at odds with the central bank’s efforts to slow demand and curb inflation. The latest rush by investors into short-dated options is another sign that money is still easily available, Shalett said.</p><p>While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has in recent weeksbrushed offthe market rally, Shalett warned that other policymakers may embrace tougher talk to put a lid on equity gains.</p><p>“This use of options and this willingness to take these kind of very high turnover strategies, to me, that’s an indication that liquidity is at play, that market stability is going to once again raise its head as an issue,” she said. “If Chair Powell doesn’t want to talk about it, potentially some of the other governors who actually look at the data may start bringing it up.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Sees \"Massive Disconnects\" in Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley’s Shalett Sees \"Massive Disconnects\" in Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-09 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/morgan-stanley-s-shalett-sees-massive-disconnects-in-stocks?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sees rally in cyclicals at odds with economic, profit outlookWarns market stability in danger as gambling spirits creep upStocks have rallied in the face of worsening earnings and economic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/morgan-stanley-s-shalett-sees-massive-disconnects-in-stocks?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/morgan-stanley-s-shalett-sees-massive-disconnects-in-stocks?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160843285","content_text":"Sees rally in cyclicals at odds with economic, profit outlookWarns market stability in danger as gambling spirits creep upStocks have rallied in the face of worsening earnings and economic expectations, producing “massive disconnects” that threaten market stability, warned Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.The chief investment officer flagged a surge in economic-sensitive shares relative to defensive stocks as a sign of the market’s confidence in future growth. Yet indicators of retail sales, manufacturing and business leaders’ confidence have been weakening along with corporate earnings.The result, Shalett said in a note this week, is that the performance ratio of cyclical versus defensive stocks has never been as out of sync with the leading economic indicators as it is now.While the mismatch is increasingly framed as a sign that the market is predicting a soft landing for the economy despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening, Shalett is skeptical. She attributed the latest equity rally to potentially short-term technical factors, such as short sellers buying back stocks to cover bearish positions and the seasonal tendency of investors to flock to the market’s biggest losers from the previous year.In other words, a technical-driven rally has made the market deviate from the fundamentals.“I’ve heard the theories that people say, ‘yes, we understand what should happen, but we’re going look through it,’” Shalett said Wednesday on Bloomberg Television. “I don’t know how far their crystal ball goes to look through it, but history is not kind to these kind of massive disconnects.”Since the start of January, an index tracking cyclical shares has jumped 13%, compared with a decline of 2% from the defensive cohort. Meanwhile, analyst estimates for S&P 500 profit growth has turned negative, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.Moreover, the stock-market advance that has lifted the S&P 500 as much as 17% from its October low has contributed to an easing in financial conditions — a development that some see at odds with the central bank’s efforts to slow demand and curb inflation. The latest rush by investors into short-dated options is another sign that money is still easily available, Shalett said.While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has in recent weeksbrushed offthe market rally, Shalett warned that other policymakers may embrace tougher talk to put a lid on equity gains.“This use of options and this willingness to take these kind of very high turnover strategies, to me, that’s an indication that liquidity is at play, that market stability is going to once again raise its head as an issue,” she said. “If Chair Powell doesn’t want to talk about it, potentially some of the other governors who actually look at the data may start bringing it up.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923750167,"gmtCreate":1670918184360,"gmtModify":1676538459689,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Already did!&nbsp;Jumping for more&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Already did!&nbsp;Jumping for more&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Already did! Jumping for more [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923750167","repostId":"2290781992","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290781992","pubTimestamp":1670914824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2290781992?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-13 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 52%, Amazon Stock Is a Once-in-a-Decade Buying Opportunity Before 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290781992","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Amazon has struggled this year, but patient investors have good reason to be bullish about the tech titan's future.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> has nosedived into a bear market this year, as investors have become increasingly pessimistic about high inflation and rising interest rates, both of which threaten to tip the U.S. economy into a recession. But those concerns have hit <b>Amazon</b> even harder. Its share price has plunged 52%, marking its sharpest decline at any point in the past 10 years.</p><p>Here&#39;s what investors should know about this once-in-a-decade buying opportunity.</p><h2>The bear case for Amazon</h2><p>The bear case for Amazon centers on the cost structure of its retail business. The company operates the most-visited online marketplace in the world, and the Amazon brand is undoubtedly synonymous with online shopping, but retail itself is a very low margin industry.</p><p>That is especially true for Amazon. The company operates a massive logistics network, and it regularly spends a tremendous amount of money on shipping and fulfillment.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTM.AU\">High</a> inflation has made the situation much worse. Discretionary consumer spending has slowed and operating expenses have soared over the past year, and that dynamic translated into disappointing financial results. Revenue increased just 10%, earnings dropped 58%, and the company reported negative free cash flow of $26 billion on a trailing-12-month basis.</p><p>That said, Amazon has $59 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, so there is no immediate danger. But if the company is forced to take on additional debt in a rising interest rate environment, it would put even more downward pressure on profitability and free cash flow. Bears see that as a reason to avoid the stock, but there are two problems with that argument.</p><p>First, economic headwinds are temporary, meaning cost pressures on its retail business should ease to some extent when inflation eventually normalizes. Second, Amazon is set to become more profitable in the coming years because its fastest-growing segments come with much higher margins than retail.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7869b82145fe963c95f1527c62ba88bc\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>The bull case for Amazon</h2><p>The bull case for Amazon focuses on its strong position in three growing markets: e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising. Retail may come with low margins, but Amazon will account for 40% of online sales in the U.S. this year, giving it more than <i>five times</i> the market share of its closest rival, <b>Walmart</b>. That means Amazon is still better positioned to capitalize on the secular shift to online shopping than its competition, and global e-commerce sales are expected to grow at 13% annually to reach $15 trillion by 2030, according to Ameco Research.</p><p>Better yet, Amazon is becoming a digital advertising juggernaut, due in large part to the popularity of its online marketplace. When U.S. consumers are searching for a product, Amazon is the most common starting point, even more common than <b>Alphabet</b>&#39;s Google Search, according to eMarketer. That makes Amazon a valuable ad partner for brands. In fact, the company is now the fourth-largest advertiser on the planet, and Amazon nearly led the world in ad revenue growth last year.</p><p>That has big implications. Digital advertising is a massive industry that is rapidly approaching $1 trillion, but it is also far more profitable than retail. Amazon has yet to provide specific operating metrics, but Google regularly achieves an operating margin over 30% in its ad business, so investors can reasonably assume Amazon is in the same ballpark.</p><p>Additionally, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the clear leader in cloud computing, another quickly growing industry with high margins. In fact, AWS currently holds twice as much market share as the next-closest cloud vendor, <b>Microsoft</b> Azure, and it regularly achieves an operating margin around 30%. That means AWS is poised to be a powerful growth engine in the coming years, as the cloud computing market is expected to increase at 20% annually to reach $1.7 trillion by 2029, according to Fortune Business Insights.</p><h2>Amazon stock is trading at a bargain price</h2><p>Given Amazon&#39;s strong presence in three large and growing markets, investors have good reason to believe sales will average double-digit growth for years to come. Better yet, Amazon should become more profitable over time, as AWS and advertising services are growing more quickly than its retail segment.</p><p>With that in mind, shares currently trade at 1.8 times sales, a discount to the three-year average of 3.7 times sales. That is a bargain price for a company poised to deliver double-digit sales growth over the long term.</p><p>Also noteworthy, shares currently trade at 81.8 times earnings, roughly in line with the three-year average. But that multiple should fall quickly as Amazon&#39;s high-margin segments account for a bigger chunk of total revenue.</p><p>That&#39;s why this growth stock is a screaming buy, and investors should jump on the opportunity before it passes.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 52%, Amazon Stock Is a Once-in-a-Decade Buying Opportunity Before 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 52%, Amazon Stock Is a Once-in-a-Decade Buying Opportunity Before 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/12/down-52-amazon-stock-is-a-once-in-a-decade-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite has nosedived into a bear market this year, as investors have become increasingly pessimistic about high inflation and rising interest rates, both of which threaten to tip the U.S...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/12/down-52-amazon-stock-is-a-once-in-a-decade-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/12/down-52-amazon-stock-is-a-once-in-a-decade-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290781992","content_text":"The Nasdaq Composite has nosedived into a bear market this year, as investors have become increasingly pessimistic about high inflation and rising interest rates, both of which threaten to tip the U.S. economy into a recession. But those concerns have hit Amazon even harder. Its share price has plunged 52%, marking its sharpest decline at any point in the past 10 years.Here's what investors should know about this once-in-a-decade buying opportunity.The bear case for AmazonThe bear case for Amazon centers on the cost structure of its retail business. The company operates the most-visited online marketplace in the world, and the Amazon brand is undoubtedly synonymous with online shopping, but retail itself is a very low margin industry.That is especially true for Amazon. The company operates a massive logistics network, and it regularly spends a tremendous amount of money on shipping and fulfillment.High inflation has made the situation much worse. Discretionary consumer spending has slowed and operating expenses have soared over the past year, and that dynamic translated into disappointing financial results. Revenue increased just 10%, earnings dropped 58%, and the company reported negative free cash flow of $26 billion on a trailing-12-month basis.That said, Amazon has $59 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, so there is no immediate danger. But if the company is forced to take on additional debt in a rising interest rate environment, it would put even more downward pressure on profitability and free cash flow. Bears see that as a reason to avoid the stock, but there are two problems with that argument.First, economic headwinds are temporary, meaning cost pressures on its retail business should ease to some extent when inflation eventually normalizes. Second, Amazon is set to become more profitable in the coming years because its fastest-growing segments come with much higher margins than retail.Image source: Getty Images.The bull case for AmazonThe bull case for Amazon focuses on its strong position in three growing markets: e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising. Retail may come with low margins, but Amazon will account for 40% of online sales in the U.S. this year, giving it more than five times the market share of its closest rival, Walmart. That means Amazon is still better positioned to capitalize on the secular shift to online shopping than its competition, and global e-commerce sales are expected to grow at 13% annually to reach $15 trillion by 2030, according to Ameco Research.Better yet, Amazon is becoming a digital advertising juggernaut, due in large part to the popularity of its online marketplace. When U.S. consumers are searching for a product, Amazon is the most common starting point, even more common than Alphabet's Google Search, according to eMarketer. That makes Amazon a valuable ad partner for brands. In fact, the company is now the fourth-largest advertiser on the planet, and Amazon nearly led the world in ad revenue growth last year.That has big implications. Digital advertising is a massive industry that is rapidly approaching $1 trillion, but it is also far more profitable than retail. Amazon has yet to provide specific operating metrics, but Google regularly achieves an operating margin over 30% in its ad business, so investors can reasonably assume Amazon is in the same ballpark.Additionally, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the clear leader in cloud computing, another quickly growing industry with high margins. In fact, AWS currently holds twice as much market share as the next-closest cloud vendor, Microsoft Azure, and it regularly achieves an operating margin around 30%. That means AWS is poised to be a powerful growth engine in the coming years, as the cloud computing market is expected to increase at 20% annually to reach $1.7 trillion by 2029, according to Fortune Business Insights.Amazon stock is trading at a bargain priceGiven Amazon's strong presence in three large and growing markets, investors have good reason to believe sales will average double-digit growth for years to come. Better yet, Amazon should become more profitable over time, as AWS and advertising services are growing more quickly than its retail segment.With that in mind, shares currently trade at 1.8 times sales, a discount to the three-year average of 3.7 times sales. That is a bargain price for a company poised to deliver double-digit sales growth over the long term.Also noteworthy, shares currently trade at 81.8 times earnings, roughly in line with the three-year average. But that multiple should fall quickly as Amazon's high-margin segments account for a bigger chunk of total revenue.That's why this growth stock is a screaming buy, and investors should jump on the opportunity before it passes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955735552,"gmtCreate":1675751576477,"gmtModify":1675751580961,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree with the call.","listText":"Agree with the call.","text":"Agree with the call.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955735552","repostId":"1155783457","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155783457","pubTimestamp":1675746976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155783457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-07 13:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Calls Latest Stock Rally a Bear-Market Trap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155783457","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic reiterated Monday that investors should fade last we","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic reiterated Monday that investors should fade last week’s Federal Reserve-induced stock-market rally, arguing that the US economy’s disinflationary process could just be “transitory.”</p><p>Kolanovic sees the first three months of the year likely marking an “inflection point in the market,” with an air pocket during the second and third quarters, he wrote in a note to clients. That will be followed by renewed deterioration in fundamentals through the end of the year since the central bank will likely keep interest rates high for some time, he added.</p><p>“We advise to use the current strength in order to reduce exposure,” a team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote, pointing to how investors piled back into speculative assets from crypto to meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market could be a dose of cold water for a “soft landing” scenario, where the Fed tames inflation while the economy continues to grow. If that doesn’t come into fruition, it will result in a mean-reversion across this year’s equity winners, according to Kolanovic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c75f4dab7f350d21ecf3b62ae363b14\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>After a surge in payroll growth on Friday raised concern that speculation about a Fed pivot was premature, Kolanovic now expects two more rate hikes in March and May, each by a quarter percentage point, followed by a lengthy pause. Even with headline inflation ebbing, he anticipates that elevated wages will weigh on margins — threatening more layoffs across Corporate America.</p><p>“So disinflation in this situation will not be anything to celebrate, as it leaves rates in an even more restrictive state with central banks slow to change course unless a risk event forces a reset,” Kolanovic said.</p><p>One of Wall Streets biggest optimists through much of last year’s market selloff, most of Kolanovic’s 2022 calls didn’t work out. He has since reversed his view, cutting his equity allocation in mid-December due to a soft economic outlook for this year. Last month, he said the economy was headed for a downturn. The bank reduced its recommended equity allocation once again due to fears of a recession and central-bank overtightening.</p><p>Kolanovic, however, did urge investors to buy the dip in China equities during their October downturn, a call he got right as the MSCI China Index has gained more than 26% since early October.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Calls Latest Stock Rally a Bear-Market Trap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan’s Kolanovic Calls Latest Stock Rally a Bear-Market Trap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-07 13:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-calls-latest-stock-rally-a-bear-market-trap-ldtc6f7y?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic reiterated Monday that investors should fade last week’s Federal Reserve-induced stock-market rally, arguing that the US economy’s disinflationary ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-calls-latest-stock-rally-a-bear-market-trap-ldtc6f7y?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-calls-latest-stock-rally-a-bear-market-trap-ldtc6f7y?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155783457","content_text":"JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic reiterated Monday that investors should fade last week’s Federal Reserve-induced stock-market rally, arguing that the US economy’s disinflationary process could just be “transitory.”Kolanovic sees the first three months of the year likely marking an “inflection point in the market,” with an air pocket during the second and third quarters, he wrote in a note to clients. That will be followed by renewed deterioration in fundamentals through the end of the year since the central bank will likely keep interest rates high for some time, he added.“We advise to use the current strength in order to reduce exposure,” a team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote, pointing to how investors piled back into speculative assets from crypto to meme stocks.A strong labor market could be a dose of cold water for a “soft landing” scenario, where the Fed tames inflation while the economy continues to grow. If that doesn’t come into fruition, it will result in a mean-reversion across this year’s equity winners, according to Kolanovic.After a surge in payroll growth on Friday raised concern that speculation about a Fed pivot was premature, Kolanovic now expects two more rate hikes in March and May, each by a quarter percentage point, followed by a lengthy pause. Even with headline inflation ebbing, he anticipates that elevated wages will weigh on margins — threatening more layoffs across Corporate America.“So disinflation in this situation will not be anything to celebrate, as it leaves rates in an even more restrictive state with central banks slow to change course unless a risk event forces a reset,” Kolanovic said.One of Wall Streets biggest optimists through much of last year’s market selloff, most of Kolanovic’s 2022 calls didn’t work out. He has since reversed his view, cutting his equity allocation in mid-December due to a soft economic outlook for this year. Last month, he said the economy was headed for a downturn. The bank reduced its recommended equity allocation once again due to fears of a recession and central-bank overtightening.Kolanovic, however, did urge investors to buy the dip in China equities during their October downturn, a call he got right as the MSCI China Index has gained more than 26% since early October.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921861338,"gmtCreate":1671027419725,"gmtModify":1676538477881,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Gosh]&nbsp;[Gosh]&nbsp;[Gosh]&nbsp;","listText":"[Gosh]&nbsp;[Gosh]&nbsp;[Gosh]&nbsp;","text":"[Gosh] [Gosh] [Gosh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921861338","repostId":"1153060846","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153060846","pubTimestamp":1671024224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153060846?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-14 21:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: It's Only Getting Worse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153060846","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryChina sales data continues to disappoint.US gasoline prices continue to fall.Used Tesla price","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>China sales data continues to disappoint.</li><li>US gasoline prices continue to fall.</li><li>Used Tesla prices dropping to a multi-year low.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4fc81f6e187c38c275e034981ad23a9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Last month, I detailedthree key risksI was watching for electric vehicle giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the year came to a close. With the stock near its multi-year low, these headwinds could cause some problems inthe new year if they did not improve rather quickly. Unfortunately, recent trends are only getting worse, making management&#39;s upcoming pricing decisions in the next couple of months even more interesting.</p><p>Let me first start in China where Tesla seems to have a demand problem. The company has already reduced Model 3 and Y prices this quarter and has implemented various additional incentives as the company&#39;s EV subsidy is set to expire in less than 3 weeks. There are also reports circulating about production cuts, but Tesla has refuted those for now. Each Tuesday we get weekly insurance data, and key Tesla watcher Troy Teslike said that 16,000 unitswould be as expectedfor the latest period. Unfortunately the actual number came in just under 13,000 vehicles, fallingwell short of expectations. It will be interesting to see how pricing fares in the coming months if sales continue to be sluggish.</p><p>Another issue I detailed previously was the drop in US gasoline prices. As oil prices have fallen to new 52-week lows recently, prices at the pump have also come down considerably. Since my previous article, the national average has dropped by nearly 50 cents a gallon, with the expectation that we&#39;ll see a 2 handle on the average before the end of the year. As the chart below shows, we are nearing 40% off the peak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ca940cfd51ccd288deeca8900879d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>US Average Gasoline Price(GasBuddy)</p><p>While electric vehicles will get a nice demand boost from credits in the Inflation Reduction Act starting in 2023, lower gasoline prices could certainly provide a headwind to demand, especially in the seasonally weaker winter months. There are also questions regarding Tesla demand amongits core basegiven Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter antics in recent weeks. As the CEO tries to get the social media site back on track, he appears to be offending more and more groups, hurting Tesla&#39;s brand image in the process.</p><p>I also mentioned previously that used Tesla prices have been dropping in recent months. Part of this may be due to some of the items I mentioned above, but also the Fed&#39;s ongoing actions to reduce overall inflation along with fears of an upcoming US recession. Since that article, the used Tesla vehicle index has come down by just over $2,000 as seen in the chart below, basically putting it at a 17-month low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ebd9cf8c201b15091ca0ce10436138\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Used Tesla Vehicle Prices(CarGurus)</p><p>There was a time earlier this year where certain used Tesla models were actually more expensive than buying a new Tesla vehicle. Management has previously cited used car sales as a reason why Tesla&#39;s services and other business have done well this year and margins in the segment have improved. With used prices now dropping, that could provide a small headwind to new car demand, and likely will impact margins on the used side a bit.</p><p>With all of the above-mentioned items swirling, Tesla shares have recently underperformed the markets. Shares on Tuesday morning hit a new multi-year low, and even some of the biggest supporters don&#39;t seem to be doing much buying. As of about 10AM on Tuesday, Tesla&#39;s implied weight in the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was barely above 7.00%, which would be the lowest number seen since I started tracking back in April 2020.</p><p>At its peak, as the chart below shows, Cathie Wood&#39;s top ETF had nearly 13% of its assets in the name. Tesla&#39;s implied weight in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) would also be at a new low over that time at just 6.50%. Tesla shares have crumbled this year since Cathie Wood put a split-adjusted price target of more than $1,500 on the name. Tesla is no longer the top holding in these two Ark Invest ETFs, being the third largest holding in ARKK and 4th largest in ARKW currently</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef335fb116057fdcad0c4b8ca0f7775e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>ARKK Tesla Weight(Ark Invest, Author Estimate)</p><p>In the end, things are not looking great for Tesla at the moment. Chinese registration data continues to disappoint as demand questions rise in the company&#39;s most important sales market. In the US, falling gasoline prices could hurt EV demand, at a time where Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter antics are not exactly helping. Used Tesla prices continue to fall as well, and one of Tesla&#39;s biggest supporters doesn&#39;t seem interested in buying currently. Shares just hit a new multi-year low, and how much more downside is ahead may depend on when some of these headwinds subside.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: It's Only Getting Worse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: It's Only Getting Worse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-14 21:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564314-tesla-stock-more-downside-expected><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryChina sales data continues to disappoint.US gasoline prices continue to fall.Used Tesla prices dropping to a multi-year low.Last month, I detailedthree key risksI was watching for electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564314-tesla-stock-more-downside-expected\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564314-tesla-stock-more-downside-expected","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153060846","content_text":"SummaryChina sales data continues to disappoint.US gasoline prices continue to fall.Used Tesla prices dropping to a multi-year low.Last month, I detailedthree key risksI was watching for electric vehicle giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the year came to a close. With the stock near its multi-year low, these headwinds could cause some problems inthe new year if they did not improve rather quickly. Unfortunately, recent trends are only getting worse, making management's upcoming pricing decisions in the next couple of months even more interesting.Let me first start in China where Tesla seems to have a demand problem. The company has already reduced Model 3 and Y prices this quarter and has implemented various additional incentives as the company's EV subsidy is set to expire in less than 3 weeks. There are also reports circulating about production cuts, but Tesla has refuted those for now. Each Tuesday we get weekly insurance data, and key Tesla watcher Troy Teslike said that 16,000 unitswould be as expectedfor the latest period. Unfortunately the actual number came in just under 13,000 vehicles, fallingwell short of expectations. It will be interesting to see how pricing fares in the coming months if sales continue to be sluggish.Another issue I detailed previously was the drop in US gasoline prices. As oil prices have fallen to new 52-week lows recently, prices at the pump have also come down considerably. Since my previous article, the national average has dropped by nearly 50 cents a gallon, with the expectation that we'll see a 2 handle on the average before the end of the year. As the chart below shows, we are nearing 40% off the peak.US Average Gasoline Price(GasBuddy)While electric vehicles will get a nice demand boost from credits in the Inflation Reduction Act starting in 2023, lower gasoline prices could certainly provide a headwind to demand, especially in the seasonally weaker winter months. There are also questions regarding Tesla demand amongits core basegiven Elon Musk's Twitter antics in recent weeks. As the CEO tries to get the social media site back on track, he appears to be offending more and more groups, hurting Tesla's brand image in the process.I also mentioned previously that used Tesla prices have been dropping in recent months. Part of this may be due to some of the items I mentioned above, but also the Fed's ongoing actions to reduce overall inflation along with fears of an upcoming US recession. Since that article, the used Tesla vehicle index has come down by just over $2,000 as seen in the chart below, basically putting it at a 17-month low.Used Tesla Vehicle Prices(CarGurus)There was a time earlier this year where certain used Tesla models were actually more expensive than buying a new Tesla vehicle. Management has previously cited used car sales as a reason why Tesla's services and other business have done well this year and margins in the segment have improved. With used prices now dropping, that could provide a small headwind to new car demand, and likely will impact margins on the used side a bit.With all of the above-mentioned items swirling, Tesla shares have recently underperformed the markets. Shares on Tuesday morning hit a new multi-year low, and even some of the biggest supporters don't seem to be doing much buying. As of about 10AM on Tuesday, Tesla's implied weight in the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was barely above 7.00%, which would be the lowest number seen since I started tracking back in April 2020.At its peak, as the chart below shows, Cathie Wood's top ETF had nearly 13% of its assets in the name. Tesla's implied weight in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) would also be at a new low over that time at just 6.50%. Tesla shares have crumbled this year since Cathie Wood put a split-adjusted price target of more than $1,500 on the name. Tesla is no longer the top holding in these two Ark Invest ETFs, being the third largest holding in ARKK and 4th largest in ARKW currentlyARKK Tesla Weight(Ark Invest, Author Estimate)In the end, things are not looking great for Tesla at the moment. Chinese registration data continues to disappoint as demand questions rise in the company's most important sales market. In the US, falling gasoline prices could hurt EV demand, at a time where Elon Musk's Twitter antics are not exactly helping. Used Tesla prices continue to fall as well, and one of Tesla's biggest supporters doesn't seem interested in buying currently. Shares just hit a new multi-year low, and how much more downside is ahead may depend on when some of these headwinds subside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943467583,"gmtCreate":1679642695642,"gmtModify":1679642700319,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey Z","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b3a909b03049004a5fd64947b978f26","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I guess \"keeping&nbsp;markets and companies honest\" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.","listText":"I guess \"keeping&nbsp;markets and companies honest\" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.","text":"I guess \"keeping markets and companies honest\" and benefiting from it in this manner is a new kind of honest.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943467583","repostId":"1184527792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":285830395011224,"gmtCreate":1710817610074,"gmtModify":1710817614763,"author":{"id":"4112492242355422","authorId":"4112492242355422","name":"Joey 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