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2022-05-19
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There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?
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Have US stocks reached that stage now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are 5 stages of bear market. 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Have US stocks reached that stage now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9023293428,"gmtCreate":1652919653365,"gmtModify":1676535188343,"author":{"id":"4113801687539562","authorId":"4113801687539562","name":"serenelin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113801687539562","authorIdStr":"4113801687539562"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023293428","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
