I’m proud to announce the release of my latest book, Viewpoints of a Trader. This is the only book on the art and wisdom of trading. I have been trading profitably for over 50 years so I think I have earned the right to say I have some wisdom about markets. I’ve traded just about everything under the sun including some things that don’t exist any more like pork bellies, eggs and broilers. But I have also been at the cutting edge of things that were brand new like derivatives and crypto. I have condensed what I have learned into one volume. Each chapter is as short as I could make it as I wanted the wisdom to be distilled not overwhelming. The topics cover all the things left out of other books like: How to play The Big One What is Trading Power and how do you manage it Runs of winners and

Fed Chairman Jay Powell shocked the market yesterday when he implied that the final rate that the Fed hikes to will be higher than the market was thinking. At the same time, he said that they might slow down the rate of increases.This shocked the market because they believed that the Fed would be finished tightening by March of next year at about 5%. Now they are thinking much higher, perhaps even to 6%.The market actually believes that inflation will start to come down pretty quickly by March 2023 but take a year or so to decline to the Fed’s target of 2%.But Jay is right and the market is wrong, from one perspective.There are several problems: Inflation may come down next year but very little The recession will cause governments to boost transfer payment keeping inflation high The Fed Fu

I was hired to coach one of the greatest traders of all time. I sat next to him every day for 18 months. He was uncanny. He would buy a dip in the market and the market would go higher. He would sell a rally in the market and the market would go lower. He would relentlessly make money from short term swings in the market. At the time, I was mainly a long term position trader. My strength was identifying big trends and riding them for big money. But not as much as he was making! Part of the reason he hired me was to help him on the big trends. But he didn’t want to ride the big trend. He wanted to ride the waves within the big trend. In other words, he wanted to swing trade in the direction of the big trend and make even more money! How? He would buy the dip in the big bull market and then

The Establishment struck back The demise of the Liz/Kwasi (LK) was the result of: The Conservative Party establishment counter attacking the free market revolutionaries The Bank of England counter attacking the free market revolutionaries LK’s incompetence LK were members of free market groups who feel that: The UK is stagnating under over repressive regulations and taxes The UK is stagnating under the over repression of the European Community Too much immigration is pushing down wages on the low end of the wage scale There is too little opportunity for the population to grow wealthy or perhaps even get better jobs The population can better allocate capital than the government The population can increase their happiness better than the government can increase their happiness. So they c

Look for copper stocks to move sharply lower in the coming months!So many people, mainly politicians, still think the economy is doing well. Even Fed Head Jumping Jay Powell thinks it is. If that is true then copper should be doing really well.But it’s not.It’s in a bear market.And it is going to go a lot lower.Why?I have been detailing for months the destruction of the house building industry. I told you it would happen months ago and it is happening right now. Home building is the biggest user of copper and home construction will be in the tank for months.The auto industry is the second largest user of copper and it will hit the skids in a minute.As the same time, third world countries are being squeezed by higher interest rates and a strong dollar so they will have to pump out much more

The dollar will remain strong and whip emerging markets and even developed countries. Look for debt defaults across the globe in 2023 as the King Dollar throttles other countries.Here's why: The US economy is the strongest economy in the developed world The Fed is running the tightest monetary policy US interest rates are about the highest in the developed world. Emerging markets no longer are making lots of money from selling raw materials The strong dollar is causing their debt and debt servicing to skyrocket But inflation is causing declining real wages in virtually all countries in the world Combined, these will keep the dollar on the upswing. But the effect of the strong dollar will be dramatic: We will see defaults on some emerging debt as the debt burden accelerates on their do

Fed Head Powell Hammers The MarketWhile the central bank’s steps to slow the rate of investment, spending and hiring “will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Mr. Powell said", according to WSJ.com. But will the Fed's tightening also kill the stock market?The short answer is yes! The Fed chairman's speech today is another trigger for the next leg in the Big Bear that we are in right now.Here are the key factors behind the next leg down: • Fed raising interest rates thus competing with stocks and reducing stock values • Fed reducing money supply in the economy thus reducing liquidity for the stock market • EPS estimates are declining because… • …the Fed caused inflation is destroying real wages leading to… • Reduced consumer demand for everyth

The inventor of the Kelly Formula was John Kelly. He was an engineer in Bell Labs in New Jersey.At the time, in the 1950’s, Bell Labs was the center of the technology universe. Of course, Bell Labs was where telephony was being driven forward.Bell asked Kelly to come up with a formula that would maximize the amount of data that could go through a copper wire. The more data Bell could push through a copper wire, the more money AT&T would make.So he came up with what we call the Kelly Formula.I’ll come back to the formula in a minute.But Kelly is also famous for one other thing. He was the first person to get a computer to sing! Remember that computers at the time were the size of rooms!You can watch a youtube of the computer singing! Totally amazing to me!Well, it turns out that the fam

Here's what everybody is thinking.The labor market is really strong. Heck, they just announced 528,000 added to payrolls last Friday! The headline blew people away!But wait a second. Things are not as rosy as they seem.The chart above show the headline number in black bars. But there are also purple bars from the household survey which are very different.They are so different that the Household survey shows two negative months this year.Why the difference and what does it mean?This is from SeekingAlpha.com:"The BLS notes the following differences between the surveys: The household survey includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from t

The worst of all worldsThe Bank of England raise rate by the biggest amount in 27 years. They did it because they forecast that inflation will hit 13% by the end. They further forecast that the UK economy would slide into a 15 month recession later this year with GDP shrinking 2%.What a surprise!You create massive monetary inflation, raise taxes, increase regulation and then epect prices to remain the same. What planet are these guys on?But now they are trying to undo the damage of their profligate fiscal and monetary policies. Now comes the global recession. Give the Bank of England credit for acknowledging the obvious. The US Fed and the ECB apparently don't think there will be a recession.Here's what is going to happen.I agree with the BOE. They have tough times ahead in the UK. But we

The Fed has been aggressively tightening monetary policy through interest rate hikes combined with quantitative easing. This is the most aggressive tightening since Paul “Tiny” Volcker in the early 1980s.But Jay “Rear View Mirror” Powell, Fed Head, has said that he is fine with that because the economy remains strong. Just look at the strong labor market.This is insane.He is looking in the rear view mirror to drive the monetary car!The labor market is a lagging indicator of the economy. He should be looking at the leading indicators which are telling us that we are going into recession.But then Rear View Mirror Powell has twice said that there would be pain to make sure that inflation is contained.So here is the question: Will the weak labor market cause Jay to flinch and stop the tight mo