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2023-05-24
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Goldman Sachs Blockbuster Analysis: How Will the U.S. Debt Ceiling End?
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The odds of an agreement until the \"last minute\" are high, and both sides may benefit politically as much as possible from the agreement reached.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While the US debt default is entering the \"countdown\", while Biden and the Republican Party are still \"pulling the limit\", will the US debt ceiling end with the ugliest ending?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On May 19th, local time, Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, chief political economist, David Mericle, chief US economist and other star analysts jointly released a research report analyzing different scenarios of the US debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes,<strong>Without raising the debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, they note in their report that,<strong>Congress is unlikely to plunge the U.S. into default, with a 70% chance of delaying the debt ceiling and spending ceiling together until early 2025, with a 30% chance of a \"last minute\" agreement, with both sides likely to benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible.</strong></p><p><strong>June 9: Final Deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">US Treasury Secretary Yellen has again warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the Treasury Department will be unable to pay its debts \"in early June\" and will run out of money to pay all its bills as early as June 1.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So, exactly what day does \"early June\" refer to?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the U.S. Treasury Department had roughly $160 billion in funding space as of May 17. About $85 billion of that will be used by June 1, leaving about $75 billion of net worth space.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>And by June 8-9, the cash balance could fall below $30 billion, note that this is the lowest balance the Treasury used to forecast deadlines.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5a93ba7835230e47c5ff1e4d0d5c9b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That said, the likelihood of the Treasury running out of all its funds at this point in time is \"considerable\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Goldman went on to point out,<strong>The Treasury may only be unable to make payments for a few days then:</strong></p><p>The June deadline is unusual,<strong>Because the budget is in deficit in the first half of the month, but it will be in surplus in the second half of the month.</strong>This means that the Treasury may only be unable to pay its debt for a few short days in June. If the Treasury goes into a cash shortage by June 1, it will affect payments of all kinds, including Social Security, Medicare and most other benefit programs. In addition, the coupon on U.S. debt will mature on June 1, although as noted in the 2011 and 2013 FOMC minutes, the FedWire system will likely remain open for coupon payments and issuance/redemption, and we do not expect that debt repayment will be affected under any circumstances.<strong>If June 8 or 9 is the deadline, it affects a smaller range of payments.</strong>After June 2, Social Security will stop paying again until June 14, and the next coupon payment will be due on June 15, when the Treasury will likely receive significant tax revenue due to quarterly tax payment deadlines.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4cad4bfb405e9938766cede068cd62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes,<strong>The White House and Republicans will reach an agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), with a 70% chance of failing to reach an agreement before the ceiling deadline (Scenario 2) and a 5% chance of revising the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 3).</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d628b5258ae174d5cad4ff63e82b14a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"292\"/></p><p><strong>\"Last minute\" to reach an agreement most likely?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For a bipartisan agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), Goldman Sachs lists the following three possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Agreement by the end of last week (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes there are still too many unresolved issues between the two parties to reach a deal quickly. Since this report was released on Friday and this article on Tuesday, as Goldman Sachs predicted, the White House and Republicans have yet to reach an agreement on the issue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): Agreement this week (30% chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs predicts a deal is much more likely later this week, which will provide more time to resolve some key sticking points in negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(c): \"Last minute\" agreement (30 percent chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In theory, it would take more than a week for both chambers to pass a bill, and Goldman Sachs cautioned that during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, the two parties reached an agreement two days before the deadline and passed the bill two days later. Goldman Sachs wrote:</p><p><strong>We still believe that there is a good chance of a deal until the last minute; Both sides will likely benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible, and will likely need to create enough support for the agreement under the pressure of an impending deadline.</strong><strong>If no agreement can be reached, a short delay may be the best option</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What happens if the two parties fail to reach an agreement before the cap deadline (scenario 2)? In this regard, Goldman Sachs raised two possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Short-term deferral of the debt ceiling (15 percent probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs said,<strong>If the two parties can't reach a \"long-term agreement\" by the beginning of June, a short-term delay may be the best way to keep the U.S. debt from falling into default.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): No action by Congress (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes that neither side would want to see this result, but it is not impossible. If Congress does nothing, the Treasury will be faced with a choice: Either stop most payments while continuing to repay the debt, or continue to borrow over the limit and make all payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Treasury may choose to ignore or circumvent the debt ceiling (4%), but given Yellen describing these as \"bad choices,\"\"legally problematic,\" and risking a \"constitutional crisis,\" that option is unlikely.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the second scenario, the Treasury is delayed in making most payments, which Goldman Sachs puts at a mere 6% chance.</p><p>If Congress doesn't act by June 1, the Treasury will likely continue to pay through June 8 or 9, but that's far from guaranteed. If the Treasury's cash balance drops below the level expected to be paid the next day, then all payments except for any debt service may be stopped. Payments due on the first day (e.g. June 8) will be deferred until the Treasury has enough cash to pay (possibly the next day, i.e. June 9).<strong>Payments due the next day (June 9) will be delayed again until cash is in place (possibly two more days, 13th of the 6th). However, by June 14 or 15, we expect the Treasury to receive enough cash to cover any late payments.</strong><strong>Postponed deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs, there is a 5% chance that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the debt ceiling to July.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mentioned earlier, the Treasury will likely run out of resources around June 8 or 9, but according to Goldman Sachs' projections, there will still be some cash left over in the Treasury General Account (TGA) at that time. That is, if the cash flow is better than expected,<strong>It is still possible that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the projected debt ceiling to late July in the coming weeks.</strong></p><p><strong>sum up</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overall, Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about the outlook for the debt ceiling, saying that it will not downgrade U.S. debt unless the Treasury misses principal and interest payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs also said that although the U.S. sovereign debt CDS has expanded significantly, most financial markets, especially U.S. stocks, seem to be relatively optimistic about the debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Goldman Sachs finally reminded:</p><p>While we expect the agreement to be reached before the deadline, we also expect more twists and turns during the period,<strong>And suspect that the market may price additional risk before the debt ceiling is finally raised.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Marko Kolanovic's team also pointed out in the latest research report that the bond market is pricing an economic recession, while the stock market is pricing a soft landing of the US economy. JPMorgan believes that the stock market's optimistic assumptions about the economic outlook may not be reliable, and the debt ceiling issue may push risky assets downward.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Blockbuster Analysis: How Will the U.S. Debt Ceiling End?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Blockbuster Analysis: How Will the U.S. Debt Ceiling End?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-24 08:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Goldman Sachs believes that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9. The odds of an agreement until the \"last minute\" are high, and both sides may benefit politically as much as possible from the agreement reached.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While the US debt default is entering the \"countdown\", while Biden and the Republican Party are still \"pulling the limit\", will the US debt ceiling end with the ugliest ending?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On May 19th, local time, Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, chief political economist, David Mericle, chief US economist and other star analysts jointly released a research report analyzing different scenarios of the US debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes,<strong>Without raising the debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, they note in their report that,<strong>Congress is unlikely to plunge the U.S. into default, with a 70% chance of delaying the debt ceiling and spending ceiling together until early 2025, with a 30% chance of a \"last minute\" agreement, with both sides likely to benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible.</strong></p><p><strong>June 9: Final Deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">US Treasury Secretary Yellen has again warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the Treasury Department will be unable to pay its debts \"in early June\" and will run out of money to pay all its bills as early as June 1.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So, exactly what day does \"early June\" refer to?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the U.S. Treasury Department had roughly $160 billion in funding space as of May 17. About $85 billion of that will be used by June 1, leaving about $75 billion of net worth space.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>And by June 8-9, the cash balance could fall below $30 billion, note that this is the lowest balance the Treasury used to forecast deadlines.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5a93ba7835230e47c5ff1e4d0d5c9b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That said, the likelihood of the Treasury running out of all its funds at this point in time is \"considerable\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Goldman went on to point out,<strong>The Treasury may only be unable to make payments for a few days then:</strong></p><p>The June deadline is unusual,<strong>Because the budget is in deficit in the first half of the month, but it will be in surplus in the second half of the month.</strong>This means that the Treasury may only be unable to pay its debt for a few short days in June. If the Treasury goes into a cash shortage by June 1, it will affect payments of all kinds, including Social Security, Medicare and most other benefit programs. In addition, the coupon on U.S. debt will mature on June 1, although as noted in the 2011 and 2013 FOMC minutes, the FedWire system will likely remain open for coupon payments and issuance/redemption, and we do not expect that debt repayment will be affected under any circumstances.<strong>If June 8 or 9 is the deadline, it affects a smaller range of payments.</strong>After June 2, Social Security will stop paying again until June 14, and the next coupon payment will be due on June 15, when the Treasury will likely receive significant tax revenue due to quarterly tax payment deadlines.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4cad4bfb405e9938766cede068cd62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes,<strong>The White House and Republicans will reach an agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), with a 70% chance of failing to reach an agreement before the ceiling deadline (Scenario 2) and a 5% chance of revising the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 3).</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d628b5258ae174d5cad4ff63e82b14a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"292\"/></p><p><strong>\"Last minute\" to reach an agreement most likely?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For a bipartisan agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), Goldman Sachs lists the following three possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Agreement by the end of last week (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes there are still too many unresolved issues between the two parties to reach a deal quickly. Since this report was released on Friday and this article on Tuesday, as Goldman Sachs predicted, the White House and Republicans have yet to reach an agreement on the issue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): Agreement this week (30% chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs predicts a deal is much more likely later this week, which will provide more time to resolve some key sticking points in negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(c): \"Last minute\" agreement (30 percent chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In theory, it would take more than a week for both chambers to pass a bill, and Goldman Sachs cautioned that during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, the two parties reached an agreement two days before the deadline and passed the bill two days later. Goldman Sachs wrote:</p><p><strong>We still believe that there is a good chance of a deal until the last minute; Both sides will likely benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible, and will likely need to create enough support for the agreement under the pressure of an impending deadline.</strong><strong>If no agreement can be reached, a short delay may be the best option</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What happens if the two parties fail to reach an agreement before the cap deadline (scenario 2)? In this regard, Goldman Sachs raised two possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Short-term deferral of the debt ceiling (15 percent probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs said,<strong>If the two parties can't reach a \"long-term agreement\" by the beginning of June, a short-term delay may be the best way to keep the U.S. debt from falling into default.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): No action by Congress (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes that neither side would want to see this result, but it is not impossible. If Congress does nothing, the Treasury will be faced with a choice: Either stop most payments while continuing to repay the debt, or continue to borrow over the limit and make all payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Treasury may choose to ignore or circumvent the debt ceiling (4%), but given Yellen describing these as \"bad choices,\"\"legally problematic,\" and risking a \"constitutional crisis,\" that option is unlikely.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the second scenario, the Treasury is delayed in making most payments, which Goldman Sachs puts at a mere 6% chance.</p><p>If Congress doesn't act by June 1, the Treasury will likely continue to pay through June 8 or 9, but that's far from guaranteed. If the Treasury's cash balance drops below the level expected to be paid the next day, then all payments except for any debt service may be stopped. Payments due on the first day (e.g. June 8) will be deferred until the Treasury has enough cash to pay (possibly the next day, i.e. June 9).<strong>Payments due the next day (June 9) will be delayed again until cash is in place (possibly two more days, 13th of the 6th). However, by June 14 or 15, we expect the Treasury to receive enough cash to cover any late payments.</strong><strong>Postponed deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs, there is a 5% chance that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the debt ceiling to July.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mentioned earlier, the Treasury will likely run out of resources around June 8 or 9, but according to Goldman Sachs' projections, there will still be some cash left over in the Treasury General Account (TGA) at that time. That is, if the cash flow is better than expected,<strong>It is still possible that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the projected debt ceiling to late July in the coming weeks.</strong></p><p><strong>sum up</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overall, Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about the outlook for the debt ceiling, saying that it will not downgrade U.S. debt unless the Treasury misses principal and interest payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs also said that although the U.S. sovereign debt CDS has expanded significantly, most financial markets, especially U.S. stocks, seem to be relatively optimistic about the debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Goldman Sachs finally reminded:</p><p>While we expect the agreement to be reached before the deadline, we also expect more twists and turns during the period,<strong>And suspect that the market may price additional risk before the debt ceiling is finally raised.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Marko Kolanovic's team also pointed out in the latest research report that the bond market is pricing an economic recession, while the stock market is pricing a soft landing of the US economy. JPMorgan believes that the stock market's optimistic assumptions about the economic outlook may not be reliable, and the debt ceiling issue may push risky assets downward.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689430\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689430","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161010763","content_text":"高盛认为，如果不提高债务上限，美国财政部将在6月8日或9日之前耗尽现金，无法偿还债务。直到“最后一刻”达成协议的可能性很大，双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益。一边美债违约进入“倒计时”，一边拜登和共和党还在“极限拉扯”，美国债务上限将会以最难看的结局收场吗？当地时间5月19日，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius、首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips、首席美国经济学家David Mericle等一众明星分析师联合发布了一份研究报告，分析了美国债务上限的不同情景。高盛认为，如果不提高债务上限，美国财政部将在6月8日或9日之前耗尽现金，无法偿还债务。不过，他们在报告中指出，国会不太可能会让美国陷入违约，有70%的可能性会将债务上限和支出上限一起推迟到2025年初，其中，“最后一刻”达成协议的可能性高达30%，双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益。6月9日：最终大限？美国财长耶伦再次警告称，如果不提高债务上限，财政部将在“6月初”无法偿还债务，最早在6月1日就没钱支付所有账单。那么，“6月初”到底指的是哪一天呢？根据高盛估计，截至5月17日，美国财政部有大约1600亿美元的资金空间。到6月1日，其中约850亿美元将被使用，留下约750亿美元的净资产空间。而到6月8日至9日，现金余额可能会降至300亿美元以下，注意，这是财政部过去用来预测最后期限的最低余额。也就是说，财政部在这一时间点上耗尽所有资金的可能性是“相当大的”。但高盛紧接着指出，届时财政部可能只有几天无法付款：6月份的最后期限不同寻常，因为上半月预算出现赤字，但下半月将出现盈余。这意味着，6月份财政部可能只有短短几天无法支付债务。如果财政部在6月1日之前出现现金短缺，这将影响社保、医保和大多数其他福利项目在内的各种支付。此外，美债的票息将于6月1日到期，不过正如2011年和2013年FOMC会议记录所述，FedWire系统可能仍将对票息支付和发行/赎回开放，我们预计，在任何情况下，债务偿还都不会受到影响。如果6月8日或9日是最后期限，其影响的支付范围较小。6月2日之后，社保将再次停止支付，直到6月14日，下一次的票息支付将于6月15日到期，届时，由于季度缴税截止日期的关系，财政部可能会获得大量税收收入。高盛相信，白宫和共和党将在债务上限截止日期到来之前达成协议（情形1），可能性高达70%，没能在上限截止日期之前达成协议（情形2）的可能性为25%，修改债务上限截至日期（情形3）的可能性为5%。“最后一刻”才达成协议最有可能？对于两党在债务上限截止日期到来之前达成协议（情形1），高盛罗列了以下三种可能性：（a）：上周末之前达成协议（可能性为10%）高盛认为，两党之间仍有太多未解决的问题，因此无法迅速达成协议。由于本篇报告是在上周五公布，本篇文章发布时间为周二，因此，正如高盛预测的那样，白宫和共和党还未就这一问题达成协议。（b）：本周达成协议（可能性为30%）高盛预测，本周晚些时候达成协议的可能性要大得多，这将为谈判一些关键的症结提供更多解决时间。（c）：“最后一刻”达成协议（可能性为30%）理论上，参众两院需要一周多的时间才能通过一项法案，且高盛提醒称，2011年债务上限危机期间，两党在截止日期前两天达成协议，并在两天后通过法案。高盛写道：我们仍然认为，直到最后一刻达成协议的可能性很大；双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益，而且可能需要在即将到来的最后期限的压力下为协议创造足够的支持。若不能达成协议，短期推迟或是最好选择如果两党没能在上限截止日期之前达成协议（情形2）会发生什么？对此，高盛提出了两种可能性：（a）：短期推迟债务上限（可能性为15%）高盛表示，如果两党不能在6月初之前达成“长期协议”，这种情况下要使美债不陷入违约，短期推迟可能是最好的办法。（b）：国会没有采取任何行动（可能性为10%）高盛认为，双方都不会想看到这一结果，但也不是没有可能发生。如果国会没有采取任何行动，财政部将面临一个选择: 要么停止大多数付款，同时继续偿还债务，要么继续超限借款，支付所有付款。财政部可能选择忽视或规避债务上限（4%），但鉴于耶伦将这些描述为“不好的选择”、“法律上有问题”，并有引发“宪法危机”的风险，这一选项不太可能。第二种情况是，财政部延迟支付大部分款项，高盛认为这一可能性仅为6%。如果国会在6月1日之前不采取行动，财政部很可能会继续支付到6月8日或9日，但这远不能得到保证。如果财政部的现金余额下降到低于第二天预期支付的水平，那么除任何偿债外的所有付款都可能停止。第一天（如6月8日）到期的付款将被推迟，直到财政部有足够的现金支付（可能是第二天，即6月9日）。第二天（6月9日）到期的付款将再次推迟，直到现金到位（可能再过两天，即6日13日）。然而，到6月14日或15日，我们预计财政部将收到足够的现金，以弥补任何延迟付款。延后截止日？按照高盛的预测，财政部将债务上限的最后截至日期改为7月的可能性为5%。如前所述，财政部可能会在6月8日或9日左右耗尽资源，但根据高盛的预测，届时财政部普通账户（TGA）仍将有一些剩余现金。也就是说，如果现金流比预期的要好，财政部仍有可能在未来几周内将预计的债务上限的最后截至日期改为7月下旬。总结总的来说，高盛对债务上限的前景表示相对乐观，它表示，除非财政部错过本息支付，否则不会下调美债评级。高盛还说，虽然美国主权债务CDS大幅扩大，目前大部分金融市场，尤其是美股似乎对债务上限持相对乐观的态度。不过，高盛最后提醒到：虽然我们预计协议将在截止日期前达成，但我们也预计期间会有更多的曲折，并怀疑在债务上限最终提高之前，市场可能会对额外的风险进行定价。摩根大通Marko Kolanovic团队也在最新发布的研报中指出，债市正在定价经济衰退，而股市却在定价美国经济软着陆。摩根大通认为，股市对经济前景的乐观假设可能并不可靠，债务上限问题可能推动风险资产下行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9970790966,"gmtCreate":1684922549955,"gmtModify":1684922868523,"author":{"id":"4137029533874552","authorId":"4137029533874552","name":"好好吃","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4137029533874552","idStr":"4137029533874552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"～","listText":"～","text":"～","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970790966","repostId":"1161010763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161010763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684888950,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161010763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-24 08:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs Blockbuster Analysis: How Will the U.S. Debt Ceiling End?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161010763","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，如果不提高债务上限，美国财政部将在6月8日或9日之前耗尽现金，无法偿还债务。直到“最后一刻”达成协议的可能性很大，双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益。一边美债违约进入“倒计时”，一","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Goldman Sachs believes that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9. The odds of an agreement until the \"last minute\" are high, and both sides may benefit politically as much as possible from the agreement reached.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While the US debt default is entering the \"countdown\", while Biden and the Republican Party are still \"pulling the limit\", will the US debt ceiling end with the ugliest ending?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On May 19th, local time, Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, chief political economist, David Mericle, chief US economist and other star analysts jointly released a research report analyzing different scenarios of the US debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes,<strong>Without raising the debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, they note in their report that,<strong>Congress is unlikely to plunge the U.S. into default, with a 70% chance of delaying the debt ceiling and spending ceiling together until early 2025, with a 30% chance of a \"last minute\" agreement, with both sides likely to benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible.</strong></p><p><strong>June 9: Final Deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">US Treasury Secretary Yellen has again warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the Treasury Department will be unable to pay its debts \"in early June\" and will run out of money to pay all its bills as early as June 1.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So, exactly what day does \"early June\" refer to?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the U.S. Treasury Department had roughly $160 billion in funding space as of May 17. About $85 billion of that will be used by June 1, leaving about $75 billion of net worth space.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>And by June 8-9, the cash balance could fall below $30 billion, note that this is the lowest balance the Treasury used to forecast deadlines.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5a93ba7835230e47c5ff1e4d0d5c9b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That said, the likelihood of the Treasury running out of all its funds at this point in time is \"considerable\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Goldman went on to point out,<strong>The Treasury may only be unable to make payments for a few days then:</strong></p><p>The June deadline is unusual,<strong>Because the budget is in deficit in the first half of the month, but it will be in surplus in the second half of the month.</strong>This means that the Treasury may only be unable to pay its debt for a few short days in June. If the Treasury goes into a cash shortage by June 1, it will affect payments of all kinds, including Social Security, Medicare and most other benefit programs. In addition, the coupon on U.S. debt will mature on June 1, although as noted in the 2011 and 2013 FOMC minutes, the FedWire system will likely remain open for coupon payments and issuance/redemption, and we do not expect that debt repayment will be affected under any circumstances.<strong>If June 8 or 9 is the deadline, it affects a smaller range of payments.</strong>After June 2, Social Security will stop paying again until June 14, and the next coupon payment will be due on June 15, when the Treasury will likely receive significant tax revenue due to quarterly tax payment deadlines.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4cad4bfb405e9938766cede068cd62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes,<strong>The White House and Republicans will reach an agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), with a 70% chance of failing to reach an agreement before the ceiling deadline (Scenario 2) and a 5% chance of revising the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 3).</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d628b5258ae174d5cad4ff63e82b14a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"292\"/></p><p><strong>\"Last minute\" to reach an agreement most likely?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For a bipartisan agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), Goldman Sachs lists the following three possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Agreement by the end of last week (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes there are still too many unresolved issues between the two parties to reach a deal quickly. Since this report was released on Friday and this article on Tuesday, as Goldman Sachs predicted, the White House and Republicans have yet to reach an agreement on the issue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): Agreement this week (30% chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs predicts a deal is much more likely later this week, which will provide more time to resolve some key sticking points in negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(c): \"Last minute\" agreement (30 percent chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In theory, it would take more than a week for both chambers to pass a bill, and Goldman Sachs cautioned that during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, the two parties reached an agreement two days before the deadline and passed the bill two days later. Goldman Sachs wrote:</p><p><strong>We still believe that there is a good chance of a deal until the last minute; Both sides will likely benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible, and will likely need to create enough support for the agreement under the pressure of an impending deadline.</strong><strong>If no agreement can be reached, a short delay may be the best option</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What happens if the two parties fail to reach an agreement before the cap deadline (scenario 2)? In this regard, Goldman Sachs raised two possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Short-term deferral of the debt ceiling (15 percent probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs said,<strong>If the two parties can't reach a \"long-term agreement\" by the beginning of June, a short-term delay may be the best way to keep the U.S. debt from falling into default.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): No action by Congress (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes that neither side would want to see this result, but it is not impossible. If Congress does nothing, the Treasury will be faced with a choice: Either stop most payments while continuing to repay the debt, or continue to borrow over the limit and make all payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Treasury may choose to ignore or circumvent the debt ceiling (4%), but given Yellen describing these as \"bad choices,\"\"legally problematic,\" and risking a \"constitutional crisis,\" that option is unlikely.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the second scenario, the Treasury is delayed in making most payments, which Goldman Sachs puts at a mere 6% chance.</p><p>If Congress doesn't act by June 1, the Treasury will likely continue to pay through June 8 or 9, but that's far from guaranteed. If the Treasury's cash balance drops below the level expected to be paid the next day, then all payments except for any debt service may be stopped. Payments due on the first day (e.g. June 8) will be deferred until the Treasury has enough cash to pay (possibly the next day, i.e. June 9).<strong>Payments due the next day (June 9) will be delayed again until cash is in place (possibly two more days, 13th of the 6th). However, by June 14 or 15, we expect the Treasury to receive enough cash to cover any late payments.</strong><strong>Postponed deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs, there is a 5% chance that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the debt ceiling to July.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mentioned earlier, the Treasury will likely run out of resources around June 8 or 9, but according to Goldman Sachs' projections, there will still be some cash left over in the Treasury General Account (TGA) at that time. That is, if the cash flow is better than expected,<strong>It is still possible that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the projected debt ceiling to late July in the coming weeks.</strong></p><p><strong>sum up</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overall, Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about the outlook for the debt ceiling, saying that it will not downgrade U.S. debt unless the Treasury misses principal and interest payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs also said that although the U.S. sovereign debt CDS has expanded significantly, most financial markets, especially U.S. stocks, seem to be relatively optimistic about the debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Goldman Sachs finally reminded:</p><p>While we expect the agreement to be reached before the deadline, we also expect more twists and turns during the period,<strong>And suspect that the market may price additional risk before the debt ceiling is finally raised.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Marko Kolanovic's team also pointed out in the latest research report that the bond market is pricing an economic recession, while the stock market is pricing a soft landing of the US economy. JPMorgan believes that the stock market's optimistic assumptions about the economic outlook may not be reliable, and the debt ceiling issue may push risky assets downward.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Blockbuster Analysis: How Will the U.S. Debt Ceiling End?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Blockbuster Analysis: How Will the U.S. Debt Ceiling End?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-24 08:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Goldman Sachs believes that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9. The odds of an agreement until the \"last minute\" are high, and both sides may benefit politically as much as possible from the agreement reached.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While the US debt default is entering the \"countdown\", while Biden and the Republican Party are still \"pulling the limit\", will the US debt ceiling end with the ugliest ending?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On May 19th, local time, Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, chief political economist, David Mericle, chief US economist and other star analysts jointly released a research report analyzing different scenarios of the US debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes,<strong>Without raising the debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash and be unable to repay its debt by June 8 or 9.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, they note in their report that,<strong>Congress is unlikely to plunge the U.S. into default, with a 70% chance of delaying the debt ceiling and spending ceiling together until early 2025, with a 30% chance of a \"last minute\" agreement, with both sides likely to benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible.</strong></p><p><strong>June 9: Final Deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">US Treasury Secretary Yellen has again warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the Treasury Department will be unable to pay its debts \"in early June\" and will run out of money to pay all its bills as early as June 1.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So, exactly what day does \"early June\" refer to?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the U.S. Treasury Department had roughly $160 billion in funding space as of May 17. About $85 billion of that will be used by June 1, leaving about $75 billion of net worth space.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>And by June 8-9, the cash balance could fall below $30 billion, note that this is the lowest balance the Treasury used to forecast deadlines.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5a93ba7835230e47c5ff1e4d0d5c9b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That said, the likelihood of the Treasury running out of all its funds at this point in time is \"considerable\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Goldman went on to point out,<strong>The Treasury may only be unable to make payments for a few days then:</strong></p><p>The June deadline is unusual,<strong>Because the budget is in deficit in the first half of the month, but it will be in surplus in the second half of the month.</strong>This means that the Treasury may only be unable to pay its debt for a few short days in June. If the Treasury goes into a cash shortage by June 1, it will affect payments of all kinds, including Social Security, Medicare and most other benefit programs. In addition, the coupon on U.S. debt will mature on June 1, although as noted in the 2011 and 2013 FOMC minutes, the FedWire system will likely remain open for coupon payments and issuance/redemption, and we do not expect that debt repayment will be affected under any circumstances.<strong>If June 8 or 9 is the deadline, it affects a smaller range of payments.</strong>After June 2, Social Security will stop paying again until June 14, and the next coupon payment will be due on June 15, when the Treasury will likely receive significant tax revenue due to quarterly tax payment deadlines.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4cad4bfb405e9938766cede068cd62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes,<strong>The White House and Republicans will reach an agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), with a 70% chance of failing to reach an agreement before the ceiling deadline (Scenario 2) and a 5% chance of revising the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 3).</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d628b5258ae174d5cad4ff63e82b14a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"292\"/></p><p><strong>\"Last minute\" to reach an agreement most likely?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For a bipartisan agreement before the debt ceiling deadline (Scenario 1), Goldman Sachs lists the following three possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Agreement by the end of last week (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman believes there are still too many unresolved issues between the two parties to reach a deal quickly. Since this report was released on Friday and this article on Tuesday, as Goldman Sachs predicted, the White House and Republicans have yet to reach an agreement on the issue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): Agreement this week (30% chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs predicts a deal is much more likely later this week, which will provide more time to resolve some key sticking points in negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(c): \"Last minute\" agreement (30 percent chance)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In theory, it would take more than a week for both chambers to pass a bill, and Goldman Sachs cautioned that during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, the two parties reached an agreement two days before the deadline and passed the bill two days later. Goldman Sachs wrote:</p><p><strong>We still believe that there is a good chance of a deal until the last minute; Both sides will likely benefit politically from the agreement reached as much as possible, and will likely need to create enough support for the agreement under the pressure of an impending deadline.</strong><strong>If no agreement can be reached, a short delay may be the best option</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What happens if the two parties fail to reach an agreement before the cap deadline (scenario 2)? In this regard, Goldman Sachs raised two possibilities:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(a): Short-term deferral of the debt ceiling (15 percent probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs said,<strong>If the two parties can't reach a \"long-term agreement\" by the beginning of June, a short-term delay may be the best way to keep the U.S. debt from falling into default.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(b): No action by Congress (10% probability)</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs believes that neither side would want to see this result, but it is not impossible. If Congress does nothing, the Treasury will be faced with a choice: Either stop most payments while continuing to repay the debt, or continue to borrow over the limit and make all payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Treasury may choose to ignore or circumvent the debt ceiling (4%), but given Yellen describing these as \"bad choices,\"\"legally problematic,\" and risking a \"constitutional crisis,\" that option is unlikely.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the second scenario, the Treasury is delayed in making most payments, which Goldman Sachs puts at a mere 6% chance.</p><p>If Congress doesn't act by June 1, the Treasury will likely continue to pay through June 8 or 9, but that's far from guaranteed. If the Treasury's cash balance drops below the level expected to be paid the next day, then all payments except for any debt service may be stopped. Payments due on the first day (e.g. June 8) will be deferred until the Treasury has enough cash to pay (possibly the next day, i.e. June 9).<strong>Payments due the next day (June 9) will be delayed again until cash is in place (possibly two more days, 13th of the 6th). However, by June 14 or 15, we expect the Treasury to receive enough cash to cover any late payments.</strong><strong>Postponed deadline?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs, there is a 5% chance that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the debt ceiling to July.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mentioned earlier, the Treasury will likely run out of resources around June 8 or 9, but according to Goldman Sachs' projections, there will still be some cash left over in the Treasury General Account (TGA) at that time. That is, if the cash flow is better than expected,<strong>It is still possible that the Treasury will change the last deadline for the projected debt ceiling to late July in the coming weeks.</strong></p><p><strong>sum up</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overall, Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about the outlook for the debt ceiling, saying that it will not downgrade U.S. debt unless the Treasury misses principal and interest payments.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs also said that although the U.S. sovereign debt CDS has expanded significantly, most financial markets, especially U.S. stocks, seem to be relatively optimistic about the debt ceiling.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Goldman Sachs finally reminded:</p><p>While we expect the agreement to be reached before the deadline, we also expect more twists and turns during the period,<strong>And suspect that the market may price additional risk before the debt ceiling is finally raised.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Marko Kolanovic's team also pointed out in the latest research report that the bond market is pricing an economic recession, while the stock market is pricing a soft landing of the US economy. JPMorgan believes that the stock market's optimistic assumptions about the economic outlook may not be reliable, and the debt ceiling issue may push risky assets downward.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689430\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689430","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161010763","content_text":"高盛认为，如果不提高债务上限，美国财政部将在6月8日或9日之前耗尽现金，无法偿还债务。直到“最后一刻”达成协议的可能性很大，双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益。一边美债违约进入“倒计时”，一边拜登和共和党还在“极限拉扯”，美国债务上限将会以最难看的结局收场吗？当地时间5月19日，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius、首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips、首席美国经济学家David Mericle等一众明星分析师联合发布了一份研究报告，分析了美国债务上限的不同情景。高盛认为，如果不提高债务上限，美国财政部将在6月8日或9日之前耗尽现金，无法偿还债务。不过，他们在报告中指出，国会不太可能会让美国陷入违约，有70%的可能性会将债务上限和支出上限一起推迟到2025年初，其中，“最后一刻”达成协议的可能性高达30%，双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益。6月9日：最终大限？美国财长耶伦再次警告称，如果不提高债务上限，财政部将在“6月初”无法偿还债务，最早在6月1日就没钱支付所有账单。那么，“6月初”到底指的是哪一天呢？根据高盛估计，截至5月17日，美国财政部有大约1600亿美元的资金空间。到6月1日，其中约850亿美元将被使用，留下约750亿美元的净资产空间。而到6月8日至9日，现金余额可能会降至300亿美元以下，注意，这是财政部过去用来预测最后期限的最低余额。也就是说，财政部在这一时间点上耗尽所有资金的可能性是“相当大的”。但高盛紧接着指出，届时财政部可能只有几天无法付款：6月份的最后期限不同寻常，因为上半月预算出现赤字，但下半月将出现盈余。这意味着，6月份财政部可能只有短短几天无法支付债务。如果财政部在6月1日之前出现现金短缺，这将影响社保、医保和大多数其他福利项目在内的各种支付。此外，美债的票息将于6月1日到期，不过正如2011年和2013年FOMC会议记录所述，FedWire系统可能仍将对票息支付和发行/赎回开放，我们预计，在任何情况下，债务偿还都不会受到影响。如果6月8日或9日是最后期限，其影响的支付范围较小。6月2日之后，社保将再次停止支付，直到6月14日，下一次的票息支付将于6月15日到期，届时，由于季度缴税截止日期的关系，财政部可能会获得大量税收收入。高盛相信，白宫和共和党将在债务上限截止日期到来之前达成协议（情形1），可能性高达70%，没能在上限截止日期之前达成协议（情形2）的可能性为25%，修改债务上限截至日期（情形3）的可能性为5%。“最后一刻”才达成协议最有可能？对于两党在债务上限截止日期到来之前达成协议（情形1），高盛罗列了以下三种可能性：（a）：上周末之前达成协议（可能性为10%）高盛认为，两党之间仍有太多未解决的问题，因此无法迅速达成协议。由于本篇报告是在上周五公布，本篇文章发布时间为周二，因此，正如高盛预测的那样，白宫和共和党还未就这一问题达成协议。（b）：本周达成协议（可能性为30%）高盛预测，本周晚些时候达成协议的可能性要大得多，这将为谈判一些关键的症结提供更多解决时间。（c）：“最后一刻”达成协议（可能性为30%）理论上，参众两院需要一周多的时间才能通过一项法案，且高盛提醒称，2011年债务上限危机期间，两党在截止日期前两天达成协议，并在两天后通过法案。高盛写道：我们仍然认为，直到最后一刻达成协议的可能性很大；双方可能会尽可能地从达成的协议中获得政治利益，而且可能需要在即将到来的最后期限的压力下为协议创造足够的支持。若不能达成协议，短期推迟或是最好选择如果两党没能在上限截止日期之前达成协议（情形2）会发生什么？对此，高盛提出了两种可能性：（a）：短期推迟债务上限（可能性为15%）高盛表示，如果两党不能在6月初之前达成“长期协议”，这种情况下要使美债不陷入违约，短期推迟可能是最好的办法。（b）：国会没有采取任何行动（可能性为10%）高盛认为，双方都不会想看到这一结果，但也不是没有可能发生。如果国会没有采取任何行动，财政部将面临一个选择: 要么停止大多数付款，同时继续偿还债务，要么继续超限借款，支付所有付款。财政部可能选择忽视或规避债务上限（4%），但鉴于耶伦将这些描述为“不好的选择”、“法律上有问题”，并有引发“宪法危机”的风险，这一选项不太可能。第二种情况是，财政部延迟支付大部分款项，高盛认为这一可能性仅为6%。如果国会在6月1日之前不采取行动，财政部很可能会继续支付到6月8日或9日，但这远不能得到保证。如果财政部的现金余额下降到低于第二天预期支付的水平，那么除任何偿债外的所有付款都可能停止。第一天（如6月8日）到期的付款将被推迟，直到财政部有足够的现金支付（可能是第二天，即6月9日）。第二天（6月9日）到期的付款将再次推迟，直到现金到位（可能再过两天，即6日13日）。然而，到6月14日或15日，我们预计财政部将收到足够的现金，以弥补任何延迟付款。延后截止日？按照高盛的预测，财政部将债务上限的最后截至日期改为7月的可能性为5%。如前所述，财政部可能会在6月8日或9日左右耗尽资源，但根据高盛的预测，届时财政部普通账户（TGA）仍将有一些剩余现金。也就是说，如果现金流比预期的要好，财政部仍有可能在未来几周内将预计的债务上限的最后截至日期改为7月下旬。总结总的来说，高盛对债务上限的前景表示相对乐观，它表示，除非财政部错过本息支付，否则不会下调美债评级。高盛还说，虽然美国主权债务CDS大幅扩大，目前大部分金融市场，尤其是美股似乎对债务上限持相对乐观的态度。不过，高盛最后提醒到：虽然我们预计协议将在截止日期前达成，但我们也预计期间会有更多的曲折，并怀疑在债务上限最终提高之前，市场可能会对额外的风险进行定价。摩根大通Marko Kolanovic团队也在最新发布的研报中指出，债市正在定价经济衰退，而股市却在定价美国经济软着陆。摩根大通认为，股市对经济前景的乐观假设可能并不可靠，债务上限问题可能推动风险资产下行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
