$Micron Technology(MU)$ A P/E of 6.8x. That's quite a number. I had to double-check it myself. What I'm seeing is a stock trading at roughly 6.8x earnings, with the market basically pricing it like a business in structural decline. But the reality is still strong, with record-level profitability and an earnings scale that rivals some of the biggest mega-cap names. That gap is the whole story. When a company is still printing serious profits but trades like it's breaking down, that disconnect usually doesn't sit there forever. I'm not saying it flips immediately, but this is definitely one of those extreme "price vs. reality" situations that stands out.
Semis are in the middle of one of the strongest relative moves in market history. The $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ index has been massively outperforming broader equities this year, with semiconductor leadership driving nearly all of the upside in risk assets. What stands out is the concentration of returns - a small group of memory and AI-linked names are doing most of the heavy lifting across the index. $Micron Technology(MU)$ has been one of the key momentum engines in the cycle, while $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ has seen extreme repricing as memory pricing dynamics shifted faster than expected. This is no longer just a cyclical recovery st
$Trio-Tech(TRT)$ Memory and semiconductor related names are in a state of high alert after this news. Just like when SPCX launched its IPO and the space sector rallied hard, this could happen now. We could see a doubling in price by then.
Micron is being framed by traders as a long-term compounding winner in the AI memory cycle. Some are already projecting extreme upside scenarios, even into the $2000 range over a multi-year horizon, based on the idea that memory pricing power in an AI-driven, supply-constrained environment could structurally re-rate earnings far beyond historical cycles. On the fundamental side, the argument is that $Micron Technology(MU)$ is already generating earnings power that, in certain peak-cycle comparisons, rivals or exceeds the combined output of major megacap tech names like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ,
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ US 500 CFD 4-hour chart showing the daily bear imbalance: bears really have to step it up here, as bulls have already managed to punch through the midpoint once. Not looking good for bears, slipping through the imbalance.
The stock keeps climbing. Monday delivered another leg up. $Groupon(GRPN)$ closed at $23.60, up 4.4% from Friday's $22.60, after testing as high as $24.28 intraday. Volume came in at 2.26M shares — lighter than Friday's surge, but still nearly double the average. The bigger picture: this stock has gone from $16.76 to $23.60 in five trading days — a real, sustained move, not a one-day fluke. Friday's dip to $21 got bought, and today buyers pushed through to a fresh leg higher. Short float remains above 60%. With every green day, the math on a potential forced short-covering scenario gets a little more interesting heading into earnings (around Aug 4–12). Strength is continuing. I'm still watching.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ I'm bullish here. The extreme fear gauge is usually a trailing indicator. I'm not saying we'll see an immediate recovery, but I believe the SPY will finish above $8200 for the year. I think it will become range-bound in early October with some quick consolidations. The next run before a broader pullback in May 2027 will present more interesting buying opportunities than in previous years.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ The numbers I circled are pretty typical short volume ratios for Micron. The top three there are from Wednesday through Friday last week. Around 55% is about the highest I've seen since March. It doesn't necessarily mean we'll see a squeeze on Monday, but it does look like we were held down pretty significantly last week.
$Everspin Technologies Inc(MRAM)$ Everspin Technologies operates as a "fabless" semiconductor company. It designs the technology and holds a portfolio of over 600 MRAM patents, but relies on major global foundries to manufacture the chips. Consequently, some companies serve as its contract manufacturing partners, some as IP licensees, and others are direct competitors.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft has a comprehensive set of businesses. It's #1 in AI as a service in the cloud. Overall in cloud, Azure has 1 billion users with 35% YoY growth. Its AI chatbot has 250 million users. It's the #2 most popular search engine with 1 billion monthly active users. It owns the #1 workplace website LinkedIn and the #1 productivity tools with Office. Its Windows OS is far and away the #1 in the world with 1.4 billion users. Xbox is the #2 most popular game console. Future P/E is 18. Price target is $570. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
$Micron Technology(MU)$ Micron just delivered a pretty clear capital allocation signal, and it aligns with Buffett's idea of returning cash when you can't deploy it better. From CFO Mike Murphy: "We intend to increase our capital return. Over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash to shareholders." From a trading desk perspective, this is more than just guidance; it's a shift in capital strategy tone. Higher focus on shareholder returns. Long-term target: 100% of excess cash returned. Strong confidence in cash generation through the cycle. Less emphasis on reinvestment versus payout. When a cyclical name starts talking like this, it usually changes how the market thinks about the durability of its cash flow.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ Yesterday's earnings report was absolutely explosive - revenue up +346% YoY and +74% QoQ to around $41.5B, with GAAP net income margins hitting about 68%.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ What if the market has already priced in the bad PCE data? A couple more possible rate hikes. That would make the bears pretty mad and poor. Micron's earnings tomorrow give a solid reason to consider buying the dip.
Reminder - $Micron Technology(MU)$ earnings are this Wednesday, 6/24. With the stock teasing new highs, this could be a make-or-break moment. I'll be watching. Options activity has been nuts.