$Microsoft(MSFT)$ It feels like it's about time to start dollar-cost averaging in. I think any large move to the downside will likely get bought up fairly quickly.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ We're seeing a significant relief signal. After facing pressure for 12 straight days, the bulls have finally managed a green daily candle. The selling appears to have stopped, and the conditions might be in place for a potential reversal.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Oracle seems to be rolling out new AI agent applications at a rapid pace, every few days. The potential for AI to handle routine supply chain tasks is significant, representing major efficiency gains for businesses. The setup looks solid: the enterprise data is already in Oracle's systems, the software is already running on their platform, and now they're applying these AI agents to help users improve operations. That seems like a good position for both Oracle and its enterprise customers. Some call it customer concentration risk because the underlying tech involves OpenAI, but these agents are essentially leveraging the same ChatGPT backend. The end user is still Oracle's customer, so that conce
$Oracle(ORCL)$ HYPR hit 144 today. It feels like we might have bottomed out. The positive side is that if semis start selling off, we're so oversold that some of that rotating money could actually flow into software.
When all is said and done, I think $Oracle(ORCL)$ will remain a Mag 7 company for decades. I've added to my position and plan to hold it for the long haul, around 20 years.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ It looks quite attractive at the current price. I'd consider adding more if it goes lower. The $130 area seems to have a lot of the risk priced out compared to the potential upside. I'm aware of the debt load, but at these levels, I think that concern is overblown.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ This is the cleanest fundamentals-vs-price divergence I'm seeing right now. Azure is up 40%. AI run-rate is $37B. Revenue growth is back to 18.3%. And the stock is down 25% YTD at 19x forward — the cheapest since 2023. The Street is selling capex fear, not the business. I'm not catching the falling knife, but I'm selling premium into it. Waiting for a flush, then putting on put credit spreads below support.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Let's look at a wild reality check for anyone panicking right now. Oracle's cloud contract backlog just hit $638 billion. For comparison, Microsoft's entire backlog is $627 billion. Think about that. Oracle—a company with a fraction of Microsoft's market cap—literally has a bigger backlog of signed, legally binding cloud contracts than MSFT. The stock price is a temporary glitch. You are holding an absolute giant.