Goldman Sachs stated that the global crude oil market has "priced in the risk upfront," having already incorporated expectations of an Iran supply disruption into its forecasts.
According to information from the Zhui Feng Trading Desk on January 16, Goldman Sachs noted in its latest research report that Brent crude has risen by nearly $6 per barrel so far this year to above $66 per barrel. Within its pricing framework, this increase is equivalent to the market having priced in a sustained Iran-related supply disruption of 700,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.
The report also pointed out that options market data further corroborates this risk premium: the probability of the Brent crude 3-month forward contract expiring in the $70 range has surged significantly from less than 7% two weeks ago to 15%, while the probability of exceeding $80 per barrel remains relatively low at 5%.
Goldman Sachs specifically highlighted that another supply-side development is the growing expectation for increased supply from Venezuela. Concurrently, the quality spread between heavy and light crude oils has widened by approximately $2 per barrel, which is consistent with its assumption of Venezuelan heavy oil production increasing by 300,000 barrels per day by year-end.
Iran Risk: Spot Prices Already "Pricing In" a 700,000 bpd Disruption The report indicates that the global crude oil market is factoring in a significant risk of supply disruption related to Iran:
Brent's rise to above $66 per barrel, representing a nearly $6 increase year-to-date, is interpreted within its pricing framework as the market's pricing of a sustained Iran-related supply disruption of 700,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.
The framework also provides a reference: a permanent production decline of 1 million barrels per day would typically increase oil prices (based on OECD inventory fair value) by $8 per barrel 12 months after the shock occurs (assuming OPEC does not fill the gap).
Goldman Sachs notes that this effectively maps the relationship between "oil price risk premium" and "potential supply gap" onto the table: the current price increase corresponds not to an extreme supply cutoff, but rather to a disruption magnitude that the market perceives as potentially sustained.
Options Market: Probability of $70 Range Adjusted Upwards Pricing in the options market more clearly reflects these concerns.
Data shows that the probability of the Brent April futures contract expiring in the $70 range has jumped from less than 7% two weeks ago to 15%, although the probability of breaking above $80 per barrel remains moderate, holding at 5%.
Simultaneously, the report mentions that the call skew has risen to its highest level since the end of June 2025, when the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities.
This implies the market is willing to pay a higher premium for upside protection, but pricing for a "runaway surge" remains relatively restrained—the risk has been bought, but not extremized.
Venezuela Supply Increase Gains Market Recognition Despite growing market concerns about Iran supply disruptions, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Iran's crude oil production to remain largely stable at 3.5 million barrels per day in 2026.
In contrast to Iran, the market is pricing in an increase in crude oil supply from Venezuela.
The research report points out that the quality spread between heavy and light crude oils has widened by approximately $2 per barrel, consistent with Goldman Sachs' hypothesis that Venezuelan heavy crude production will increase by 300,000 barrels per day by year-end.
Goldman Sachs expects Venezuela's crude oil production to increase from 830,000 barrels per day in December 2025 to 1.07 million barrels per day in December 2026.
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