China's GDP Grows 5% Year-on-Year in 2025, Q4 GDP Expands 4.5%

Deep News01-19 10:09

Preliminary calculations indicate that the annual gross domestic product reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, representing a 5.0% growth compared to the previous year when calculated at constant prices. By sector, the value added of the primary industry was 9,334.7 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year; the secondary industry reached 49,965.3 billion yuan, growing 4.5%; and the tertiary industry hit 80,887.9 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4%. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Sequentially, the fourth-quarter GDP increased by 1.2%.

Grain output saw an increase and a bumper harvest, while animal husbandry maintained stable growth. The total national grain output for the year was 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons or 1.2% over the previous year. Specifically, summer grain output was 149.75 million tons, down 0.1%; early rice output was 28.51 million tons, up 1.2%; and autumn grain output was 536.62 million tons, up 1.5%. By variety, wheat output was 140.07 million tons, remaining largely flat; corn output was 301.24 million tons, up 2.1%; rice output was 209.04 million tons, up 0.7%; and soybean output was 20.91 million tons, up 1.3%. The annual output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat was 100.72 million tons, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, exceeding 100 million tons for the first time. This included pork output of 59.38 million tons, up 4.1%; beef output of 8.01 million tons, up 2.8%; mutton output of 4.96 million tons, down 4.2%; and poultry meat output of 28.37 million tons, up 6.7%. Milk output was 40.91 million tons, up 0.3%, while egg output was 34.98 million tons, down 2.5%. The number of live pigs slaughtered during the year was 719.73 million head, up 2.4%, and the inventory of live pigs at year-end was 429.67 million head, up 0.5%.

Industrial production registered relatively rapid growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing showing better momentum. The value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year. By three main sectors, mining grew 5.6%, manufacturing grew 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas, and water grew 2.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 9.2%, and high-tech manufacturing grew 9.4%, with growth rates 3.3 and 3.5 percentage points faster than the overall industrial sector above the designated size, respectively. By ownership type, state-controlled enterprises saw a 4.6% increase; share-holding enterprises grew 6.3%; enterprises with foreign, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwanese investment grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.3%. By product, the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1%, respectively. In December, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased 5.2% year-on-year and 0.49% month-on-month. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1% in December, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, while the sub-index for production and business activity expectations was 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points. From January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide reached 6,626.9 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year.

The service sector experienced stable growth, with modern services developing favorably. The value added of the service sector for the year increased by 5.4% compared to the previous year. Specifically, the information transmission, software and information technology services sector; the leasing and business services sector; the transport, storage, and postal services sector; the wholesale and retail trade sector; and the accommodation and catering sector grew by 11.1%, 10.3%, 5.2%, 5.0%, and 4.9%, respectively. In December, the Service Industry Production Index increased by 5.0% year-on-year. Within this, the production indices for information transmission, software and information technology services; leasing and business services; and the financial sector grew by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5%, respectively. From January to November, the operating revenue of service enterprises above the designated size increased by 7.8% year-on-year. The Service Industry Business Activity Index was 49.7% in December, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the Business Activity Expectation Index was 56.4%, up 0.5 percentage points. Sectors such as telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services; monetary financial services; and capital market services all had business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating high levels of prosperity.

Market sales scale expanded, with service retail sales growing relatively fast. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the year reached 50,120.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year. By location of business units, retail sales in urban areas were 43,297.2 billion yuan, up 3.6%, while retail sales in rural areas were 6,823.0 billion yuan, up 4.1%. By consumption type, retail sales of goods were 44,322.0 billion yuan, up 3.8%, and catering revenue was 5,798.2 billion yuan, up 3.2%. Sales of basic living necessities and some upgraded goods showed good growth momentum. For the full year, the retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office goods, sports and entertainment articles, household appliances and audio-video equipment, and grain, oil, and food products by units above the designated size increased by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3%, respectively. National online retail sales reached 15,972.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the previous year. Online retail sales of physical goods were 13,092.3 billion yuan, up 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year-on-year but decreased 0.12% month-on-month. Service retail sales for the year increased by 5.5% compared to the previous year. Retail sales in cultural, sports, and leisure services; communication and information services; tourism, consulting, and leasing services; and transportation services grew rapidly.

Fixed asset investment declined year-on-year, although manufacturing investment maintained growth. National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the year was 48,518.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous year. Excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment fell by 0.5%. By sector, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment plummeted by 17.2%. The floor space of newly built commercial housing sold nationwide was 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7%, with sales value reaching 8,393.7 billion yuan, down 12.6%. By industry, investment in the primary industry grew 2.3%, the secondary industry grew 2.5%, while the tertiary industry fell 7.4%. Private investment declined by 6.4%; excluding real estate development, private investment fell by 1.9%. In high-tech industries, investment in information services and the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft, and related equipment grew by 28.4% and 16.9%, respectively. In December, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month-on-month.

Goods imports and exports maintained stable growth, with the trade structure continuing to optimize. The total value of goods imports and exports for the year was 45,468.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year. Exports were valued at 26,989.2 billion yuan, up 6.1%, while imports were valued at 18,479.5 billion yuan, up 0.5%. Imports and exports by private enterprises grew 7.1%, accounting for 57.3% of the total import and export value, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous year. Trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative grew 6.3%, accounting for 51.9% of the total import and export value. Exports of high-tech products grew 13.2%. In December, the total value of goods imports and exports was 4,263.0 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Exports were 2,535.9 billion yuan, up 5.2%, and imports were 1,727.1 billion yuan, up 4.4%.

The consumer price level remained generally stable, with core CPI showing a mild rebound. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat compared to the previous year. By category, prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol fell 0.7%; clothing prices rose 1.5%; housing prices rose 0.1%; prices for household items and services rose 0.9%; prices for transportation and communication fell 2.6%; prices for education, culture, and entertainment rose 0.8%; healthcare prices rose 0.8%; and prices for other goods and services rose 9.3%. Within food, tobacco, and alcohol, pork prices fell 6.1%, fresh vegetable prices fell 3.9%, grain prices fell 1.0%, while fresh fruit prices rose 1.2%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.7%, with the increase widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. In December, the CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase widening by 0.1 percentage points from November, and rose 0.2% month-on-month. The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.6% compared to the previous year; in December, it fell 1.9% year-on-year but rose 0.2% month-on-month. The annual Purchasing Price Index for Industrial Producers fell 3.0% compared to the previous year; in December, it fell 2.1% year-on-year but rose 0.4% month-on-month.

The employment situation was generally stable, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate remaining steady. The average urban surveyed unemployment rate for the year was 5.2%. In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%. The surveyed unemployment rate for the local household registered labor force was 5.3%; for the non-local household registered labor force, it was 4.7%, including 4.4% for non-local agricultural household registered laborers. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%. The average weekly working hours per employee for enterprises nationwide was 48.6 hours. The total number of migrant workers for the year was 301.15 million, an increase of 1.42 million, or 0.5%, over the previous year. This included 121.09 million local migrant workers, up 0.1%, and 180.06 million migrant workers working outside their hometowns, up 0.8%.

Resident incomes continued to grow, with rural residents' income increasing faster than that of urban residents. The national per capita disposable income for the year was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% and a real increase of 5.0% after adjusting for inflation compared to the previous year. By place of residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 56,502 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.3% and a real increase of 4.2%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 24,456 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.8% and a real increase of 6.0%. The national median per capita disposable income was 36,231 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4%. Grouped by income quintile, the per capita disposable income of the low-income group was 10,150 yuan; the lower-middle-income group, 22,702 yuan; the middle-income group, 35,536 yuan; the upper-middle-income group, 55,586 yuan; and the high-income group, 103,778 yuan. The national per capita consumption expenditure for the year was 29,476 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4% and a real increase of 4.4% after adjusting for inflation. The share of per capita expenditure on food, tobacco, and alcohol in total per capita consumption expenditure (the Engel coefficient) was 29.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year. Per capita expenditure on services increased by 4.5%, accounting for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure, unchanged from the previous year.

The total population decreased slightly, while the urbanization rate continued to rise. The national population at year-end (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government, and military personnel, excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and foreigners residing in the 31 regions) was 1,404.89 million, a decrease of 3.39 million from the end of the previous year. The number of births during the year was 7.92 million, with a birth rate of 5.63 per thousand; the number of deaths was 11.31 million, with a death rate of 8.04 per thousand; resulting in a natural population growth rate of -2.41 per thousand. By gender, the male population was 716.85 million, and the female population was 688.04 million, with a total population sex ratio of 104.19 (females = 100). By age, the population aged 16-59 was 851.36 million, accounting for 60.6% of the total population; the population aged 60 and above was 323.38 million, accounting for 23.0% of the total population, including 223.65 million aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.9%. By urban-rural composition, the permanent urban population was 953.80 million, an increase of 10.30 million from the end of the previous year; the permanent rural population was 451.09 million, a decrease of 13.69 million; the share of urban population in the total population (urbanization rate) was 67.89%, up 0.89 percentage points from the end of the previous year. In terms of education level, the average years of education for the population aged 16-59 reached 11.3 years, an increase of 0.1 years over the previous year.

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