BOC International has upheld its "Buy" rating on PETROCHINA (00857). The firm has increased its assumption for the dividend payout ratio in 2026 from 45% to 50%. The target price for the H-shares has been raised from HK$11.62 to HK$12.12, while the target price for the A-shares (601857.SH) has been lifted from 13.68 yuan to 14.22 yuan. The report noted that PETROCHINA's net profit for 2025 fell by 4% year-on-year to 157.3 billion yuan, which was in line with the bank's expectations. Growth in the downstream business largely offset the decline in upstream earnings. The bank anticipates that the average Brent crude oil price will increase by 19% this year to $81 per barrel, driving a 25% year-on-year growth in profit. Although conflicts in the Middle East have impacted some overseas upstream operations and oil and gas supply, the company's extensive international trading network is expected to ensure sufficient supply for its downstream business. PETROCHINA aims to become a world-class energy and chemical company by 2030. Its plans include expanding ethylene production capacity from 10 million tons per year to 15 million tons, doubling new materials capacity to 10 million tons, and establishing a bio-material production capacity of 2 million tons.
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