Spot prices on the Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network on February 4 showed significant movements: 1# Tin led the nonferrous metals sector, with its latest price quoted at 395,750 yuan per ton, up 18,250 yuan; 1# Copper was quoted at 105,020 yuan per ton, rising by 3,640 yuan, while the premium stood at 20 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan; A00 aluminum ingot was quoted at 23,760 yuan per ton, up 470 yuan, with a discount of 205 yuan; 0# Zinc was quoted at 24,920 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan; 1# Zinc was quoted at 24,820 yuan per ton, also down 150 yuan; 1# Lead ingot was quoted at 16,550 yuan per ton, unchanged; 1# Nickel was quoted at 142,600 yuan per ton, up 3,700 yuan.
Recently, the nonferrous metals market has resembled a turbulent sea, experiencing a significant wave of price increases across multiple varieties, sharply driving up market enthusiasm. However, beneath this seemingly prosperous surge, distinct divergences lurk among different metal types, much like viewing a mountain range from different angles reveals varying peaks and valleys, with each metal telling its own unique market story.
Copper: Intertwined Policy and Geopolitics Fuel Short-Term Surge Expectations The copper market has recently been exceptionally dynamic. News of China's plan to increase national copper reserves acted like a bombshell dropped into the market, instantly creating massive waves and driving London copper prices up by 4.6% at one point. This move not only highlights governments' determination to strengthen supply security but also injects powerful momentum into copper's price ascent.
Simultaneously, factors such as internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government's brief shutdown and subsequent reopening, and frequent U.S.-Iran conflicts are interwoven like complex threads, collectively influencing market sentiment. On the macroeconomic front, dovish officials call for significant interest rate cuts while hawks emphasize inflation control, creating policy uncertainty that leaves market participants treading cautiously. The normalization of geopolitical risks, such as U.S.-Iran tensions, sustains global risk-aversion sentiment, with significant rebounds in gold and silver联动 with the copper market, further pushing copper prices higher.
On the industry side, the EU's consideration of tougher trade sanctions against Russia, potentially including a ban on imports of Russian platinum group metals and copper, adds another variable to the already tight copper supply. Supported by strong fundamentals, bargain-hunting actively propels copper's rebound. Challenges in restarting overseas mines, low inventories in non-U.S. regions, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation collectively strengthen market expectations for a short-term copper price surge.
Aluminum: Stimulated by Gold and Copper's Rise, Pressure and Volatility Remain the Theme The emergence of positive market news and the significant rises in gold and copper have triggered a rebound in Shanghai aluminum. Macro-economically, changes regarding the Federal Reserve Chair candidate caused sharp fluctuations in metal markets; Trump's nomination of the hawkish Kevin Warsh initially spurred a jump in the U.S. dollar index, but subsequent positive U.S. manufacturing data failed to sustain dollar strength, leading to a gradual return to rationality.
Geopolitically, ongoing U.S.-Iran conflicts maintain strong global risk-aversion sentiment, with gold and silver's high volatility联动 with metal markets, while a weaker dollar elevates the valuation baseline for metals. Fundamentally, Shanghai aluminum exhibits relatively strong medium-to-long-term supply and demand, with low inventory levels providing price support. However, while there are expectations for increased domestic primary aluminum production capacity on the supply side, the pressure is limited; conversely, demand has entered a seasonal lull, with operating rates at downstream processing enterprises continuously declining, end-consumer orders decreasing, and the现货 discount pattern persisting. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, inventory accumulation is expected to continue, significantly capping aluminum's upside potential. Although现货 trading sentiment warmed slightly after recent sharp price declines, fundamentally weak supply and demand suggest aluminum prices will likely remain under pressure and volatile. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of strong gold and copper performances, there might be expectations for a price increase today, offering a glimmer of hope akin to finding a village with willows and bright flowers after a long journey.
Zinc: Complex Supply-Demand Dynamics Sustain Pressured Volatility Influenced by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors, the zinc market displays a unique trajectory. Macro-economically, planned U.S.-Iran talks, the resolution of partial government funding bills ending some "shutdowns," and internal Fed disagreements on rate cuts and monetary policy create a complex mix, leaving the market without clear direction.
Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine level underwent a transition from紧张 to宽松 and back to收紧 during 2025. As overseas mines resumed operations and new mines commenced production, Treatment Charges (TC) continued to recover, but entering the fourth quarter, the market supply-demand格局 abruptly tightened, driving TC sharply lower. On the supply side, seasonal maintenance at domestic northern mines and the closure of the zinc concentrate import window have led domestic smelters to转向 domestic ore. On the demand side, smelters with high operating rates have strong raw material demand, but the significant post-New Year holiday rise in domestic zinc prices has抑制 downstream procurement willingness, with some enterprises entering the Spring Festival holiday early, leading to a noticeable drop in operating rates. Although visible inventories domestically and internationally are at low levels, providing some support, overall, after market risk sentiment释放, zinc price回调略 improved现货 trading, but with the Spring Festival lull and more downstream players entering holidays, zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure and volatile, with futures likely trading in a narrow range, resembling calm waters with little movement.
Lead: Weakness Persists Under Domestic and International Pressure Lead prices face "dual pressure" domestically and internationally: domestic Spring Festival lull leads to demand contraction, while international factors include U.S. stock market declines and dominant risk-aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, weak demand主导 the price trend, while supply contraction is masked, resulting in an industry-wide "lull contraction."
From a supply-demand fundamental perspective, weak demand is the core factor driving lead price movements. On the supply side, concentrated maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters due to the approaching Spring Festival have been largely anticipated by the market and are overshadowed by more severe demand下滑. Downstream lead-acid battery enterprises are entering holiday cycles, with operating rates plummeting and procurement nearly halting; there are no bright spots in terminal consumption, with the entire demand side acting as a core drag on prices. The industry chain overall exhibits a "lull contraction" state, with leading companies seeing minimal contributions and pressured gross margins from their lead businesses. Overall, lead's weakness results from the共振 of macro pressure, supply-demand imbalance, and seasonal lull, expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern short-term with limited rebound momentum, awaiting post-holiday downstream复工 for potential demand recovery, holding future possibilities like eventually riding the wind and waves.
Nickel: Triple Resonance Drives Continued Upward Bias Expectations The nickel market stands out, with LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rising. Macro factors domestically and internationally provide support; supply side faces tightening from "policy + geopolitics + resources," shifting global supply from surplus to shortage; demand is driven by "new energy + stainless steel."
The supply side shows a triple tightening scenario of "policy + geopolitics + resources": Indonesia significantly reduced nickel mining quotas, geopolitical risks in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo persist, and domestic smelting faces tight raw materials and technical bottlenecks leading to insufficient high-quality nickel supply, shifting global supply from surplus to shortage. Demand is driven by a dual-engine of "new energy + stainless steel," with high-nickel battery technology iteration and capacity expansion in the new energy vehicle sector, and pre-holiday restocking in stainless steel providing short-term support. The industry chain exhibits a分化 pattern of "strong upstream, congested midstream, pressured downstream," with low inventory across the entire chain and structural矛盾 as core characteristics. The现货 market shows features like bullish holding and惜售, rigid demand procurement, and tight availability of high-quality nickel. Nickel prices are expected to延续偏强上涨, with core support来自 macro liquidity, geopolitical risks, and expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, but需警惕 rising financial market risk aversion, high inventory pressure, and potential政策不及预期 risks in major producing countries. Shanghai nickel's core trading range is projected at 135,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton, resembling a powerful ascent facing challenges.
Tin: Multiple Factors Drive Continued High-Level Volatility Market sentiment in the tin market is修复, with various domestic and international factors improving mood. Geopolitically, situations in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo support short-term tin price strength. The supply-demand格局 involves disruptions in major producing countries, demand分化, and prominent structural矛盾 in the industry chain.
Geopolitically, an earthquake in Myanmar raised concerns about production and transport disruptions in mining areas, while limited mine capacity in the Democratic Republic of Congo jointly supports short-term tin price strength. In terms of supply-demand格局, supply-side disruptions in major producing countries persist, global tin concentrate processing fees are at historical lows抑制产量释放; demand shows分化 with "traditional weakness, emerging strength," and low inventories combined with limited new capacity巩固 the tight supply-demand balance. The current industry chain state is tight upstream, pressured midstream, and淡 downstream, with overall prominent structural矛盾, but long-term demand expectations in emerging sectors remain unchanged.现货 market supplies are偏紧, with traders exhibiting strong惜售 sentiment, and downstream逢低 rigid demand restocking带动 improved trading activity. Intraday tin prices are expected to trade volatile at high levels, with the LME tin core range seen at $49,500 - $50,800/ton; medium-to-long term, the tight supply-demand balance and demand from emerging sectors remain core supports for tin prices, akin to sitting securely while awaiting direction within high-level volatility.
Outlook: Divergence to Continue, Opportunities and Challenges Coexist Considering the performance across metal varieties, the nonferrous metals market shows明显的分化 characteristics amidst the broad rally. Macro-level policy changes, geopolitical risks, and economic data uncertainty will continue to impact market sentiment. Fundamental supply-demand格局 remain the key factor determining individual metal price trends.
Looking ahead, as the Spring Festival holiday concludes, downstream demand is expected to gradually recover, providing some support to metal markets. However, global economic growth uncertainty, potential trade friction risks, and policy changes in major producing countries could still introduce volatility. Investors need to closely monitor macro policy developments, geopolitical situations, and supply-demand changes for each metal, seizing opportunities presented by market分化 while remaining vigilant against potential risks. In this vast and turbulent nonferrous metals market, where numerous factors can dazzle the eye, maintaining rationality and conducting in-depth research are essential to finding wealth opportunities amidst the market's起伏.
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