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Two years ago, a single long bullish policy-driven candle ignited the fantasy of a nationwide bull market; two years later, retail account values have hit new highs, yet trading enthusiasm has completely gone cold. Indexes can fool the eyes, but they cannot fool the heart. Let us look at the real data from the front lines of brokerages in the capital.
Introduction: The Second Anniversary of 9/24
What deceives people most in the market is always the red and green candlesticks. What truly tells the truth is the silent account trading records of tens of millions of retail investors.
Rewind to September 24, 2024. A heavy combination of policies landed, and the Shanghai Composite Index surged 4.15% in a single day. A massive bullish candle that pierced through the market gloom instantly ignited investment sentiment across the entire internet. At that moment, almost everyone was convinced: the cold winter was over, and a nationwide bull market had officially returned. A large wave of retail investors entered the market, full of expectations for a trend reversal.
However, the cruelest truth of the market is not the one-day celebration, but rather the two long years of market consolidation and countless real trading data. Today, the 9/24 rally marks its second anniversary. The initial frenzy has completely faded, and a set of front-line brokerage operating data that cannot be embellished or faked has thoroughly exposed the true underlying reality of the current A-share market.
Today, A-shares have long bid farewell to the era of universal gains where everyone profits. It has fully entered a structural stock-market game where a minority engages in precise maneuvering while the majority lies flat in a state of zen-like passivity.
The Absurd Contrast: Retail Market Values Hit New Highs While Trading Nearly Stalls
Many investors have long wondered: with policies continuously supporting the market and indexes frequently recovering, why is it getting harder to make money, and why is breaking even seemingly hopeless? The real answer lies in front-line brokerage trading data: the capital base of A-shares is growing larger, but retail trading enthusiasm has completely cooled.
Market Core Aggregate Data Dashboard
The market's core aggregate data reveals a stinging truth: incremental capital continues to flow in and total market wealth steadily climbs, but the vast majority of investors choose to "hold positions without moving and mainly observe." A-shares have completely bid farewell to the era of high-frequency speculation and chasing rallies and dumping declines, entering a calm stock-game cycle.
Looking at the national market, total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in August plummeted 23.80% month-on-month, market liquidity contracted sharply, and market activity continued to decline. After two years of repeated volatility and repeated slaps in the face, retail investors have long shed their frenzy: no blindly chasing hot topics, no frequent stock switching, no impulsive position adding. The market can be supported by policy, but wounded confidence can never return to its former frenzy.
Extreme Contrast Between Indexes and Trading Volume
Indexes are red and flourishing, appearing to recover across the board, yet trading is cold and quiet. The vast majority of retail investors caught in the middle only lose money and struggle to earn returns.
Market Paradox: Retail Assets Hit New Highs While the Brokerage Industry Faces a Cold Winter
This is the most ironic and real market paradox of the past two years: overall retail account values continue to rise, but the difficulty of making money and investment pressure in the market are constantly increasing.
The core revenue of brokerages is highly dependent on retail trading commissions. When tens of millions of retail investors collectively lie flat and stop trading, the entire industry faces an operating cold winter.
In August, brokerage operations presented a tale of two extremes. On one hand, retail investors lay flat, and industry data contracted sharply. Operating revenue month-on-month: -21.02%. Net profit month-on-month: -34.35%. Profitable branches decreased by 39 month-on-month. Fund distribution income month-on-month: -38.74%.
At the same time, institutional players are maneuvering, with professional capital adding positions against the trend. Securities lending balance month-on-month: +30.58%. Margin financing and securities lending business income month-on-month: +13.52%.
In a word: ordinary retail investors are watching from the sidelines, lying flat and reducing activity, while professional institutions are quietly adding positions and engaging in precise maneuvering. Most brokerage revenue comes from retail trading commissions. If retail investors do not switch stocks, do not buy funds, and do not trade frequently, brokerages have no profit increment. Even if everyone's account value hits new highs, as long as positions remain unmoved, brokerages are ultimately "working in vain."
Meanwhile, low-price commission competition in the industry is intensifying, further squeezing profit margins and dramatically increasing industry survival pressure.
Details of Brokerage Commission Rate Competition
Trading volume has shrunk dramatically, industry commissions are racing to the bottom, and labor and venue costs are rigidly rising. With these three pressures combined, brokerage industry profitability continues to face headwinds. A-shares have long bid farewell to the era of nationwide retail investor melee and fully entered a refined cycle of expert showdowns and cognitive monetization.
Market Business Tiering and Differentiation Data
The data presents a cruel reality: the A-share dividend is no longer universal. The sustained baptism of two years of structural market conditions has led A-shares to complete a thorough stratification of capital, cognition, and returns. The market is frantically concentrating toward the top, and the money-making opportunities that ordinary retail investors can grasp are becoming increasingly scarce and refined.
Siphon Effect of Capital in Top Districts
Madden area: customer assets account for 23.93%. CBD area: customer assets account for 20.48%. These two core districts alone monopolize 44.5% of customer assets in the Beijing jurisdiction, with the capital siphon effect at the top being extremely prominent. The top ten leading branches in the Beijing jurisdiction alone hold 14.87 trillion yuan in customer assets, capturing nearly forty percent of the entire market's profits. Top institutions eat meat, mid-tier institutions drink soup, and most retail investors repeatedly lose money.
The most real A-share market has no universal dividend and no equal distribution of benefits. All excess returns and quality opportunities always belong only to a minority of mature investors with cognition, patience, and discipline.
Final Words on the Second Anniversary of 9/24: Long Bullish Candles Create Dreams, Cycles Reveal True Colors
Two years ago, a violent long bullish candle ignited the get-rich-quick fantasies of countless retail investors. Two years later, sets of cold, hard data have punctured all short-term frenzy and wishful thinking.
Two-Year User Iteration Data Comparison
New investors continue to pour in, while veteran investors have grown increasingly clear-headed and mature through experience. The market does not lack incremental capital; what it lacks is clear-headed, rational investors who do not blindly follow the crowd and are not restless.
Candlesticks can embellish short-term market trends, but real data can never embellish the essence of the market and the truth of profit and loss. A single long bullish candle can ignite sentiment across the entire internet, but it can never rewrite the long-term profit and loss rules of the stock market. Policy can support the market bottom, but it can never support human greed and restlessness.
The two-year bull market frenzy has completely ended, and the market cycle has settled. The future A-share market will have no lying-down-and-winning trends, only returns from cognition; no universal gains, only carefully selected opportunities. What truly enables one to survive bull and bear cycles and achieve stable profits is not illusory luck, but long-term accumulation and clear-headed cognition.
Two years ago, do you still vividly remember the bull market frenzy of 9/24? After two years of market turbulence, what changes have occurred in your stock trading mindset and investment cognition? The comment section is open, and we welcome your messages and exchanges.
Risk warning: All data in this article comes from public reports of the Beijing Securities Association and is intended only for industry review and exchange. It does not constitute any investment advice. Hangjia has been deeply engaged in brokerage services for over twenty years, gathering industry elites and driving industry innovation and transformation. By engaging with the most cutting-edge brokerage elites in thought exchanges, sharing the latest business perspectives and practical experience, gaining new business inspiration, and seizing market development opportunities at the first opportunity, the goal is to build a high-quality platform for business exchange and networking.
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