The lock-up period for TRANSTHERA-B (02617) entered its second stage of expiry on June 23, marking one year since its listing. According to the company's shareholder information as of December 31, 2025, its controlling shareholder and pre-IPO investors collectively hold approximately 273 million shares. This round of lock-up expiry involves 119 million shares, representing 29.19% of the total share capital, with a market value of HK$3.324 billion set to be unlocked.
While the expiry of a lock-up does not equate to immediate selling, as it merely opens the "floodgates" for potential disposals, the actual selling behavior depends on shareholder type and motivation. However, the outcome was stark: TRANSTHERA-B's share price experienced a "sharp dive" immediately after the market opened on June 23, plummeting 46.28% within the first minute and nearly 60% within half an hour.
Were There Warning Signs Before the Crash?
Looking at its performance over the past two years, after hitting a historical intraday high of HK$679.5 on September 16 last year, TRANSTHERA-B's share price began a significant decline. Under the market logic of "high volatility and distribution," the Shenzhen Connect saw a net reduction of 0.6650%, selling a substantial 1.182 million shares. The determined, cost-insensitive selling by Shenzhen Connect funds became the direct trigger for the stock losing support and entering a freefall.
Although TRANSTHERA-B experienced a notable rebound from October 16 to November 6 last year, with a single-day surge of 46.34% on October 16, an analysis of market forces reveals that the main buying interest, led by international hot money from institutions like BNP Paribas, HSBC, and Merrill Lynch, was merely seeking to "take a slice" during the intense market divergence, executing pure short-term trading strategies. Their buying activity, in turn, triggered a new wave of selling from Shenzhen Connect funds.
Thereafter, TRANSTHERA-B's share price trended downward consistently. Its price chart, dominated by small declines and minor gains, fell from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band and continued a slow, oscillating decline along the middle to lower bands. Correspondingly, its share price dropped from around HK$120 at the beginning of this year to HK$27.92 at the close on June 22.
Although the trading pattern before the June 23 crash was primarily one of gradual decline, two unusual activities hinted at a different atmosphere. Data shows that on June 4 this year, TRANSTHERA-B experienced a deposit activity. The involved deposit value was HK$338 million, representing only 3.08% of holdings. A shareholder deposited 9.6109 million shares with Huatai Hong Kong, increasing its holding ratio to 20.67%. Unlike the paperless issuance in A-shares, Hong Kong still retains physical share certificates. Since shares must be deposited into CCASS to be traded, while a deposit does not necessarily mean the shareholder is selling, it can be viewed as preparation for a potential sale.
Furthermore, on June 22, in TRANSTHERA-B's broker trading data, the Shanghai Connect appeared as the top net seller for the first time in nearly 60 days.
Did Three Rounds of "Flash Placements" Shatter Confidence?
As mentioned, lock-up expiry does not equal selling; it merely opens the possibility. The actual selling depends on shareholder type and motivation. Taking the Hong Kong lock-up expiry wave in the second quarter of last year as an example, it did not suppress the market primarily because outperforming earnings from quality companies attracted continuous buying from index funds, southbound funds, and foreign capital, fully absorbing the potential selling pressure from unlocked shares. Typically, controlling shareholders, industrial capital, and long-term sovereign funds have longer holding horizons and lower selling intentions. Therefore, overall low volume before an expiry often indicates minimal market divergence, with most investors waiting for a clearer trend.
However, the high-volume plunge following TRANSTHERA-B's lock-up expiry indicates that confidence among existing shareholders has been shattered. This may be related to the company's frequent arrangements for highly discounted placements on the eve of the expiry.
It was reported that on May 27 this year, TRANSTHERA-B announced a placement of 3.836 million new shares to no fewer than six placees at HK$40.83 per share, representing a discount of approximately 18%, raising net proceeds of about HK$152 million. This was its third placement this year, following two completed in January and April. All three placements were conducted at a discount, raising a total of HK$624 million in net proceeds.
Notably, according to the company's disclosures, as of the end of last year, TRANSTHERA-B had an IPO fundraising balance of HK$119 million. Despite this, the company proceeded with three discounted placements, raising over HK$600 million. While the stated use of proceeds is for the development of its core product and pipeline, its R&D expenditures for 2024 and 2025 were RMB 244 million and RMB 247 million, respectively. Given that the company still had cash on hand of RMB 415 million in 2025, its decision to conduct three heavily discounted placements raising over HK$600 million within six months has left many investors perplexed.
Furthermore, all three placements occurred during TRANSTHERA-B's downtrend. The discount rates were 17.98%, 18.00%, and 18.01% respectively. The gradually widening discounts have continuously "trapped" incoming funds, shattered the confidence of existing holders, and simultaneously dampened the willingness of new capital to enter, leading to insufficient external buying support. In recent months, the company's single-day trading volume has at times fallen below 1 million shares.
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