Pierre Andurand, renowned as the "crude oil trading prodigy," has made a powerful return by heavily betting on supply disruptions in the Middle East and re-entering long positions in oil. His flagship fund surged over 30% in the first quarter.
According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund recorded a cumulative gain of 31.1% in the first quarter. This outstanding performance coincided with a sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude climbing nearly 60% in March. The price surge stemmed from deep disruptions to the global energy supply chain due to Middle East conflicts, including shipping obstructions and forced shutdowns of some production capacity, triggering the largest supply interruption on record.
Pierre Andurand, who accurately predicted the oil price surge in 2008 and the dramatic crash in 2020, was once the market's most steadfast bull. However, his bullish forecast for 2023 failed to materialize, ending a three-year streak of profits. In 2024, he exited his long oil trades, awaiting a better opportunity. He faced another setback in 2025, recording a loss of approximately 40%. Now, he has staged a strong comeback by making significant bets on Middle East supply shocks.
Monthly performance varied significantly, with March's rally securing the bulk of the quarter's gains. Bloomberg data shows the fund's performance was highly volatile throughout the quarter: it fell 4% in January, rose 4.6% in February, and skyrocketed 30.6% in March. The March surge alone contributed the vast majority of the quarter's returns. This performance closely mirrored oil price volatility. The escalation of Middle East conflicts in March, particularly shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf which sparked supply concerns, drove oil prices substantially higher, resulting in substantial gains for the fund's long positions.
This performance is particularly crucial. The fund had suffered a 40% loss for the full year 2025, raising doubts about its strategy. In the initial stages of the Middle East conflict, the fund gained 6% in a single week, as sharp oil price swings caught many hedge funds off guard. Subsequently, the fund successfully capitalized on the strong, one-sided upward trend in oil prices during March, delivering robust returns that validated its strategy.
Pierre Andurand, formerly an energy trader at Goldman Sachs and Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, later founded the hedge fund Andurand Capital Management. He gained fame for his accurate predictions of the 2008 oil price surge and the historic 2020 crash.
As a famously bullish voice in the crude oil market, he predicted in early 2023 that oil prices would reach $140 per barrel by year-end. However, Brent crude consistently failed to break above $100, and OPEC+ production cuts failed to sustainably boost the market, allowing bearish sentiment to prevail. This led to the failure of his bullish strategy, adversely affecting performance and ending his three-year profitable streak.
In 2024, ahead of the June OPEC+ meeting, Andurand completely liquidated his long positions in oil futures, describing his market outlook as "mixed." The firm stated in a letter, "We will re-engage in the oil market once we have greater clarity on the supply side."
From unmet predictions to stepping away, from biding his time to striking forcefully—through the market's ebbs and flows, this "hunter" in the crude oil market never truly left. When supply shocks re-emerged, Andurand once again placed his bets on rising prices. This time, the market moved in his favor.
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