Over the past four years, the market value of major global alcohol companies has evaporated approximately $830 billion, with a Bloomberg index tracking around 50 beverage firms plunging 46% from its 2021 peak. This sustained decline is now seen by industry analysts as a "clear signal of structural change."
Morgan Stanley analyst Sarah Simon noted, "Structural shifts are underway—people are drinking less." Health concerns and changing preferences among younger consumers are reshaping drinking habits worldwide. A Gallup survey cited by Bloomberg reveals U.S. alcohol consumption has dropped to its lowest level since records began in 1939, with health warnings from organizations like the WHO further dampening demand.
Younger demographics are driving this transformation. Celebrities such as British actor Tom Holland and American singer Katy Perry publicly embracing sobriety have popularized non-alcoholic or low-alcohol beverages. The rise of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, which suppress appetite, has also reduced alcohol intake. Barclays analyst Laurence Whyatt observed, "The decline in alcohol consumption is four times steeper than during the 2008 financial crisis, confirming this isn’t cyclical but a profound structural shift."
China’s market is undergoing significant pain. Weak household spending and official restrictions on alcohol consumption have hit demand hard, with giants like Kweichow Moutai seeing shares slump from 2021 highs. A 2022 Ries Consulting survey found 70% of young Chinese view baijiu as "unhealthy and unpleasant," while nearly 40% prefer drinks with around 10% alcohol content.
This shift has spurred low-alcohol innovations. Wuliangye launched "29° Crush On," while Gujing Gongjiuw and Shede Spirits introduced products with 26% and 29% alcohol content, respectively. Companies are also diversifying: Moutai debuted a blueberry sparkling wine, and Wuliangye expanded into lychee-infused offerings. Morningstar analyst Jennifer Song noted, "Younger generations reject baijiu’s harshness—low-alcohol variants are a long-term trend."
Global giants are adapting. Carlsberg rolled out alcohol-free cider, Campari introduced non-alcoholic aperitif Crodino in the U.S., and Diageo acquired Ritual Zero Proof. Leadership changes are rampant—Diageo, Rémy Cointreau, and Campari all appointed new CEOs in 2025, while Moutai saw two chairmen depart in two years.
Investor sentiment is mixed. The global alcohol index’s forward P/E of ~15x is less than half its 2021 valuation. Hedge fund Cook & Bynum increased stakes in emerging-market brewers, with partner Richard Cook stating, "We don’t believe humans will stop drinking." Yet Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has seen its Constellation Brands investment shrink ~40% since last year.
Bell Asset Management’s Andrew Gowen concluded, "Today’s challenges were unimaginable five years ago. After 7,000 years, this industry stands at a critical inflection point."
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