US opens fire, launches Hellfire missiles! Houthi forces launch new strikes! Latest from the Strait of Hormuz! Oil prices rise, gold prices fall
Let's start with the latest developments in the Middle East. The US military says it attacked a merchant vessel heading for an Iranian port using missiles.
According to CCTV News, the U.S. Central Command stated on August 11 that U.S. forces opened fire on a Panama-flagged cargo ship named "Vela Nova" in the Gulf of Oman. The Central Command said the ship was heading to an Iranian port in an attempt to breach the U.S. blockade on Iran. After the crew of the "Vela Nova" repeatedly ignored U.S. warnings, a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles into the ship's engine room. The ship has now lost steering capability and has stopped heading to Iran. The U.S. Central Command also said that as of August 11, U.S. forces have forced 55 merchant ships attempting to break the blockade to change course, disabled three ships that refused to cooperate, and boarded and inspected two ships. The U.S. claims the blockade on Iran is still fully in effect.
Houthi forces say they have struck military targets linked to Saudi Arabia in multiple areas of Yemen. According to CCTV News, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on the 11th that the group used a large number of ballistic missiles and drones to strike personnel, weapons depots, and command centers at the Saudi-backed Mocha region and the Marib Governorate's Tadafin military base. Saree said the strikes "hit their targets with precision," causing dozens of casualties, including Saudi personnel. He added that various Saudi military buildups are aimed at escalating the situation and controlling Yemen, and the Houthis will continue to strike them. The Houthi-controlled Al-Masirah TV reported on the 11th that the group struck a ship transporting Saudi military equipment in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that day.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless its conditions are met. According to CCTV News, on the 11th, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani said the U.S. is the root cause of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman, and that the U.S. has waged an illegal war against Iran, endangering the entire region. "The Strait of Hormuz will not open unless the U.S. changes its behavior and accepts Iran's conditions," he said. He stated that the U.S. must end the war, pay Iran's frozen funds, and meet other conditions conveyed through intermediaries. He noted that if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on the passage routes through the Strait of Hormuz, that agreement would be handled separately from the issue of closing the Strait.
Oil prices rise, gold prices fall. Analysts say the tight crude oil supply situation has not changed. International oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, as traders remain skeptical about reaching an agreement to immediately restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As of the close of trading this morning, WTI crude oil futures prices rose 1.3% to $83.20 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures prices rose 1.4% to $88.91 per barrel. Precious metal prices fell. As of this morning's close, spot gold prices fell 0.51% to $4,369.22 per ounce.
Regarding the core drivers of this round of oil price increases, Haitong Futures' head of energy research, Yang An, said that on one hand, the overall supply and demand for crude oil are currently tight. On the other hand, expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump would "ease tensions and reach a deal" were quickly disproven last week, leading to the evaporation of optimism for a swift resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler data, the average public shipment volume through the Strait of Hormuz in the first three weeks was 4.16 million barrels per day (excluding dark ships), a significant decline from the exemption window period of the U.S.-Iran MOU. During the same period, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued to be harassed by Yemen's Houthi forces, and shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port plummeted. Although most ships are choosing to turn off their AIS for dark sailing, making the specific impact difficult to assess precisely, the flow of Saudi energy-related ship trade has clearly chosen to bypass via the north. "Middle East crude oil supply is currently tight, and Russia and Libya have also been attacked successively, which will affect refinery production, further reducing global crude oil supply," Yang An explained.
In terms of inventory, EIA data shows that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 305 million barrels last week, close to the red line of 250 million barrels. Meanwhile, Kpler data shows that global crude oil inventories have fallen, further solidifying the underlying logic of tight supply. Xinhu Futures analyst Yan Lili said that current global crude oil inventories have significantly decreased compared to February, and product oil inventories are generally at low levels. Although the gasoline consumption season is nearing its end, the diesel market is about to enter a restocking phase before the peak consumption season. At the same time, the global refinery operating rate is still relatively low, with a slow ramp-up process, and Russia's export ban remains in place, leading to significant pressure on product oil supply. In the diesel market, the crack spread remains high, providing strong bottom support for crude oil prices. Yan Lili expects crude oil prices to fluctuate in a range in the short term. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates again, crude oil prices still have room to rise. Yang An reminded that the rapid rise in crude oil prices may increase the likelihood of Trump taking unconventional intervention (TACO) due to domestic pressure.
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