Military planners worldwide are investing heavily in new weapons systems. The outbreak of the Ukraine war and threats of potential abandonment by the United States have prompted nations to scramble for arsenal expansion, supply chain strengthening, and ammunition supply stabilization. Currently, demand for tanks, artillery, fighter jets, and drones is extremely robust. However, this demand dividend has not entirely benefited traditional weapons exporters like the United States, Europe, and Russia. Instead, South Korea and Turkey are capitalizing on this military procurement boom.
This arms race reflects a broader strategic realignment. European defense companies need time to restore production capacity that contracted after the Cold War's end, and require additional time to replenish inventories depleted through Ukraine aid. Russia, typically the world's second-largest weapons exporter, is prioritizing domestic military needs after years of equipment depletion on Ukrainian battlefields. Traditional buyers like India, Vietnam, and Egypt are seeking alternative suppliers.
**South Korea: Maintaining Defense Industrial Capacity as Priority**
Many countries are directing orders toward South Korea. While the United States remains the largest weapons supplier to NATO's European members, South Korea has tied with France as the second-largest supplier of weapons to Europe. In certain global weapon categories, such as tanks and artillery, South Korea's exports have surpassed those of the United States. In fighter jet exports, South Korea ranks third behind only the United States and France. Last year, South Korea sold $3.2 billion worth of surface-to-air missile systems to Saudi Arabia, $460 million worth of warships to Peru, and $1 billion worth of self-propelled howitzers to Romania.
South Korea's largest order comes from a 2022 military sales agreement with Poland, now valued at $22 billion. Poland seeks to rapidly build deterrence against Russia. For South Korea, this order sends a powerful signal: the country is ready to join the ranks of top global arms exporters and has opened doors for other lucrative military deals in Europe. South Korea can rapidly produce NATO-standard weapons at reasonable prices. Seven South Korean defense giants work closely with the government to jointly pursue orders and coordinate research and development. Lee Jeong-min from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that maintaining defense industrial capacity has been South Korea's priority, partly because the country remains technically at war with its northern neighbor.
South Korea's most ambitious defense project is the KF-21 fighter program. Expected to enter service by the end of next year, it has already attracted interest from Eastern European, Gulf, and South Asian countries. Currently classified as a 4.5-generation fighter, South Korea hopes to upgrade it into a complete fifth-generation stealth fighter equipped with domestically produced engines. This will test South Korea's ability to compete with America's most advanced fighter platforms like the F-35. To date, even Japan and Israel have not achieved this goal.
**Turkey: Weapon Advantages Lie in Combat-Proven Performance**
Another rising defense force is Turkey. Over the past five years, Turkish weapons exports have surged dramatically, jumping from nearly $2 billion to over $7 billion last year. Defense expert Arda Mevlutoglu states this results from Turkey's strategic autonomy push, with the civilian-led Defense Industries Agency playing a driving role.
Turkey's Baykar Technologies has manufactured drones that outcompete similar products. The company has sold over 500 fixed-wing drones to more than 30 countries. Saudi Arabia has signed a $3 billion agreement with Turkey for joint production of more advanced "Akinci" drones. Baykar Technologies has also established a joint venture with Italy's Leonardo, planning to develop the "Kizilelma" stealth combat drone as a "loyal wingman" to coordinate with the proposed sixth-generation Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) future fighter.
Turkish President Erdogan highly values the diplomatic influence from weapons exports to Africa and the Middle East, but the country's defense companies are focusing on better-funded European nations. Serhat Guvenc from Turkey's Kadir Has University believes European countries' longstanding human rights concerns about Turkey have become a "luxury worry" that they must set aside when facing military procurement needs.
Turkish weapons' advantage lies in being "combat-proven": deployed in conflicts with Kurdish forces and military interventions in Syria and Libya. Additionally, Turkish-made weapons meet NATO standards, offer reasonable prices, and follow "no-strings-attached" sales policies.
Earlier this year, Turkey reached a $1.6 billion cooperation agreement with Spain for joint production of nearly 30 "Hurjet" attack aircraft. Turkey will also sell 1,059 Otokar-manufactured Cobra-2 armored vehicles to Romania under a $930 million agreement. Last December, Portugal signed a $134 million naval supply ship procurement contract with Turkey. Turkey is also advancing development of the "Kaan" fifth-generation fighter project.
Shortly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, South Korea announced it would become the world's fourth-largest weapons exporter by 2027. This goal now appears somewhat aggressive. Competition is intensifying, with early signs showing that senior engineers from South Korea and Turkey are being recruited by higher-paying Western companies, causing "brain drain."
Meanwhile, Turkey remains excluded from major Western joint military projects like the F-35 fighter program, while Russia may potentially revive its weapons export business in the future. Despite numerous challenges, setting ambitious goals remains wise for these two emerging defense powers amid escalating global arms competition.
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