On Monday, June 1st, there are only three days remaining until the opening of the 11th domestic refined oil product price adjustment window for 2024, scheduled for 24:00 on June 4th. The data collection for the current pricing cycle is now 70% complete. Dragged down by a significant drop in international crude oil prices last Friday, the expected reduction in this period's fuel prices has once again expanded. The current forecast indicates a decrease of approximately 0.4 yuan per liter for gasoline, essentially confirming a substantial price cut for this cycle. Car owners can expect the second domestic fuel price reduction of the year to take effect on Thursday evening.
Optimistic expectations regarding a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East have dominated market sentiment, leading to a sharp decline in the geopolitical risk premium and causing a significant drop in international oil prices last week. Specifically, the main contract price for U.S. crude oil futures fell by a cumulative 9.57%, while Brent crude futures experienced an even steeper decline of over 11%.
As this pricing cycle nears its conclusion with only three statistical days remaining, the projected reduction continues to increase. Based on the statistics from the first six working days, a price cut of 510 yuan per ton is anticipated. At the current projected reduction rate, the prices for gasoline and diesel are expected to fall by 0.39 yuan to 0.46 yuan per liter.
Once the adjustment takes effect at 24:00 on June 4th, the market is poised to witness its second fuel price decrease of the year, leading to a notable drop in market prices. This adjustment is expected to push the price of 95-octane gasoline below 9 yuan per liter, while 0-grade diesel also has the potential to fall below 8 yuan per liter.
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