Summary: During the European session on Wednesday, October 21, spot gold briefly plunged to an intraday low of $4,106.23 in early trading, then continued to attract dip-buying support. The gold price formed a V-shaped rebound and returned to near yesterday's close, with a full-day range exceeding $25. Four major signals deserve close attention in tonight's news flow.
During the European session on Wednesday, October 21, spot gold dropped to $4,106 during Asian hours, then dip-buying in the afternoon forcefully pulled out a V-shaped lower shadow, and the gold price finally returned to near yesterday's close. But don't rush to call a reversal just yet 鈥?Commerzbank says rate hike expectations have already been fully priced in and are marginally easing, but Brent crude returning above $109 has pushed inflation expectations back up, leaving bulls and bears each telling their own story. What really matters tonight is not the gold price itself, but the $4,140 short-term dividing line, and which of the three speech lines 鈥?Jensen Huang, Bailey, and Lagarde 鈥?will loosen first.
Key News Flash
Rate hike expectations show subtle loosening. Commerzbank latest note points out that the market is quietly waiting for next week's Fed and ECB policy meetings, the dollar is unlikely to see any major rally in the short term, and the market has fully priced in a December rate hike, but there will be no further tightening after December. Tastylive global macro head Ilya Spivak went even further, saying that if some of the rate hike expectations for next year previously priced in by the market are removed or their probability is lowered, gold prices are likely to rise as a result. The marginal cooling of hawkish expectations has become the biggest potential support for gold tonight.
Oil price recovery may backfire on gold. A well-known figure warned that as crude oil prices rise again, inflationary pressure has not subsided, and the market's hawkish expectations for monetary policy have strengthened accordingly, which could keep gold under pressure. Escalating Middle East tensions combined with falling U.S. crude inventories have pushed Brent back above $109, and the "seesaw" effect between oil and gold prices is worth watching.
Geopolitical risks continue to brew. Iran and Houthi forces are constantly making moves, maritime security risks are rising, and Kpler data shows at least 18 ship attack incidents have been recorded in the past two weeks, with risk-aversion sentiment providing a floor for gold prices.
Domestic precious metals show mixed signals. The Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D closed down 0.24% at 887.75 yuan per gram, while silver T+D rose 0.27%; the Huaan Gold ETF estimated scale has exceeded 103 billion yuan, with net inflows of 21.8 billion yuan year-to-date, as allocation-type funds continue to add positions, but Hong Kong-listed Laopu Gold fell 4.14% as short-term speculative funds withdrew.
After several consecutive days of decline, gold prices have built solid support at $4,106. Tonight, "loosening rate hike expectations" and "oil-driven inflation backlash" are locked in a bull-bear standoff. On the upside, $4,125鈥?4,132 is the rebound resistance, while $4,106 is the key defense line below. Keep a close eye on the direction of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Latest Spot Gold Technical Analysis
The 1-hour chart shows that after being blocked near $4,190, the gold price has continued to pull back and is currently trading near $4,148, with a weak short-term bias. The previous rebound failed to continue, and the price has fallen back below multiple moving averages. During the European session, the key focus is whether the support below can hold. The current price is below the MA20, MA60, and MA89, with clear short-term moving average suppression. On the upside, the first resistance to watch is $4,155鈥?4,161, with $4,172 as the next level. The indicator sits above the price at around $4,188, and the trend signal remains bearish. On the downside, $4,141鈥?4,140 is short-term support. If it is effectively broken, the next focus is around $4,112; if the support holds, a technical rebound is still possible. Bearish scenario: if the rebound is blocked in the $4,155鈥?4,161 zone, watch for pullback opportunities; if $4,140 is effectively broken, pay attention to the $4,112 support. Bullish scenario: if the price stabilizes near $4,140鈥?4,141 and shows a clear bottoming signal, watch for a rebound opportunity toward $4,155鈥?4,161; only a renewed hold above $4,172 would improve the short-term outlook.
Tonight's Core Trading
This calendar can be grouped into four main threads: UK policy expectations, AI/semiconductor risk appetite, crude inventories and geopolitics, and euro/eurozone bond policy expectations.
1. UK 14:00 data + 21:00 Bailey: leaning toward the "rate hike pricing" thread. At 14:00, three releases: September CPI monthly/yearly rate, retail price index monthly rate, and public sector net borrowing. The actual published figures show UK September CPI at 3.5% year-on-year (August was 3.1%, expectation around 3.4%), core CPI at 2.8%, services inflation around 3.7%, with motor fuel up about 29.8% year-on-year as the main driver. RPI typically reflects retail-level inflation pressure in tandem. Interpretation: headline + core + services all rising 鈫?BoE rate hike probability increases; the market has already treated a November hike to 4.00% as a high-probability scenario, and another hike in December is also partially priced. Public sector net borrowing viewed separately: if borrowing is higher than expected, it shows limited fiscal space, but energy subsidies and household support will in turn boost future financing needs, affecting gilt yields alongside inflation and bond supply. At 21:00, Bailey's speech 鈥?key points to listen for: (1) whether the "second-round effects" of energy prices (wages, services prices) are confirmed; (2) whether he keeps the door open for a November hike or downplays it; (3) the trade-off between fiscal subsidies and medium-term inflation. Hawkish 鈫?sterling strengthens, gilt yields rise; if he stresses "wanting to see more data first" 鈫?sterling gives back gains, yields fall.
2. 17:00 Jensen Huang (GTC Berlin): the "accounting" thread for AI trades. The scenario is NVIDIA GTC Berlin, covering AI factories, Vera Rubin deployment, Agentic AI, Physical AI/robotics, sovereign AI, and European compute investment. The market doesn't lack parameters; it lacks "delivery signals": cloud provider/enterprise Rubin procurement pace, the magnitude of decline in per-token inference costs, European industrial/robotics orders, and AI capex ROI. The Physical AI direction will move A-share/Hong Kong robot, vision, and industrial software sentiment. Affected assets: NVDA itself, semiconductors (AMD/Broadcom/TSMC chain), servers/optical modules/power and cooling, as well as A-share Physical AI and agent-themed plays. If only vision is presented without order timelines 鈫?"good news exhausted" volatility; if there are clear deployment schedules or cost-reduction data 鈫?AI chain risk appetite recovers.
3. 22:30 EIA trio: the "draw/build at high oil prices" thread. Background: WTI recently in the $98鈥?01 range, Brent around $109鈥?10, supported by Middle East tensions, fuel/diesel tightness, and U.S. SPR falling to about 282.7 million barrels (a low since 1982). Commercial crude inventories: an unexpected draw 鈫?bullish WTI/Brent, bullish energy stocks; a build 鈫?geopolitical premium gives back. Cushing inventories affect WTI delivery and calendar spreads; a draw is bullish for front-month, a build pressures front-month. SPR inventories are usually not viewed as "trading inventories"; continued releases indicate strategic supply supplementation, which pressures spot in the short term but leaves a thinner buffer in the medium to long term. Combined with the API preview (if available pre-market): the precedent of crude down 4.93 million, gasoline down 2 million, and distillates down 2.58 million can serve as a reference, but EIA official data takes precedence.
4. Next day 00:00 Lagarde: the euro/eurozone bonds "energy + fiscal" thread. Background: eurozone September final inflation at 3.8%, energy up about 18.8% year-on-year, TTF natural gas back at highs, and Lagarde has repeatedly mentioned "large energy shock, upside inflation risks, and the need for sound fiscal policy." Listen for three points in her speech: (1) whether she acknowledges that second-round wage effects are approaching; (2) hints about a December rate hike (the market has expectations of a rise to 2.75%); (3) her stance on French/eurozone fiscal policy and sovereign spreads. Hawkish 鈫?EUR/USD support, short-end eurozone bond yields rise; emphasis on growth downturn/fiscal risks 鈫?euro under pressure but long-end eurozone bonds may diverge due to safe-haven buying.
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