On February 2, COMEX gold initially fell but then rose, closing at $4680.9 per ounce, marking a decline of 1.35%. Domestically, the SHFE gold night session opened high but moved lower, closing at 1045.0 yuan per gram, down 3.86%.
The US January ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2022, far above the anticipated 48.5, primarily driven by robust growth in new orders and production, while the employment index also showed improvement, alleviating market concerns about the economy. Additionally, the US government shutdown has caused key data to be "delayed" once again, with Tuesday's December JOLTS job openings report and Friday's non-farm payroll report being rescheduled for release. Following the record 43-day government shutdown last autumn, critical economic data is again being delayed due to funding disruptions. Last September's non-farm payroll data was postponed until November 20 for release, while the October and November employment reports were merged and delayed until December 16 for a combined release. In the short term, with economic data absent, gold prices may continue their technical adjustments.
On the geopolitical front, the US and India have achieved a breakthrough on tariff issues, with US President Trump announcing that the two nations have reached a trade agreement and will take immediate action to reduce mutual tariffs. However, the US-Iran situation remains complex, and the core long-term variables supporting precious metals—such as the restructuring of the US dollar credit system, the trend towards de-dollarization of reserves, and the normalization of geopolitical fissures—have not reversed; the long-term driving logic remains intact. Following this round of sharp adjustment, gold may enter a phase of more subdued fluctuations, and further upward movement to challenge new highs may require more time to digest.
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