Citigroup has issued a research report, forecasting that Sands China Ltd (HKEX: 01928) will experience its largest quarter-on-quarter decline in EBITDA market share during the second quarter of 2026. According to the bank's projections, this share is expected to drop by 2.5 percentage points to approximately 27%.
The report suggests this anticipated contraction will likely exert a negative influence on the stock's near-term performance. Consequently, Sands China has been added to Citigroup's 30-day downside catalyst watch list. Despite this near-term caution, the firm has assigned the stock a "Buy" rating alongside a price target of HK$19.
The analysis highlights Sands China's position as the gaming operator with the largest hotel room inventory in Macau. This scale typically allows the company to capture greater market share during periods of peak tourist traffic.
Looking ahead, Citigroup expects Sands China to emerge as a formidable competitor in the premium mass market segment, particularly following the full opening of The Londoner Macao. The bank projects that the company could be the fastest-growing operator in terms of market share this year.
Based on its historical financial discipline, the report also expresses confidence that Sands China will maintain a prudent approach to player reinvestment strategies.
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