Global gold markets continue to experience volatility, drawing significant attention to their short-term trajectory. In equity markets, gold-related stocks in the A-share market are under pressure, while spot gold and COMEX gold prices have shown intraday strength. In the domestic consumer market, as of July 19th, Chow Tai Fook's 24-karat gold jewelry was quoted at 1222 yuan per gram, and Chow Sang Sang's price stood at 1221 yuan per gram.
Market Sentiment Shifts
Recent surveys indicate a prevalent bearish outlook on Wall Street regarding the short-term prospects for international gold prices, with analysts suggesting the crucial support level of $4000 per ounce may be difficult to maintain. Among 14 analysts surveyed on the outlook for international gold prices, bearish sentiment is dominant. Only one analyst anticipates a potential price increase, while eleven forecast a decline and two expect sideways movement.
Among retail traders, 68 participants, representing 40%, expect international gold prices to rise, while 61, or 36%, predict a fall. The $4000 per ounce level serves as a significant psychological threshold for retail investors. A sustained breach below this level could potentially trigger a deeper short-term correction in international gold prices.
It is noteworthy that $4000 per ounce is widely regarded as a key psychological barrier for international gold. Industry insiders suggest that a sustained break below this level could lead to a sharp short-term adjustment. Conversely, if the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing and inflationary pressures ease, leading markets to reprice expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, gold could find renewed support.
Central Bank Purchases Persist
Data from the World Gold Council reveals that gold prices weakened in June 2026, erasing earlier gains and closing the first half of the year in negative territory. In the domestic market, Chinese gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) experienced an outflow of 150 billion yuan in June, marking the weakest monthly performance on record. The total assets under management for gold ETFs declined by 16% to 2.43 trillion yuan, the lowest level since December 2025, with total holdings decreasing by 17 tonnes to 277 tonnes.
The primary factor behind these outflows was weaker gold prices, which dampened domestic investor interest in allocating to the metal. Furthermore, surging investor enthusiasm for the stock market, evidenced by continued strong growth in new brokerage accounts in June, diverted attention away from gold.
Simultaneously, in June 2026, the People's Bank of China increased its official gold reserves by 15 tonnes. This marks the largest monthly purchase since October 2023, representing the 20th consecutive month of accumulation and setting a record for the longest continuous buying streak. Despite price fluctuations, the central bank continued its purchases throughout the first half, accumulating a total increase of 40 tonnes in its official gold reserves. Over the past 20 months, total purchases have reached 82 tonnes.
This period has coincided with heightened global geopolitical tensions, stricter trade controls, and increased financial market volatility, further underscoring gold's strategic advantages as a safe, stable, and credit-risk-free asset.
Future Outlook for Gold
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council indicates that during the traditional off-season for gold jewelry consumption, demand is expected to remain subdued, although stabilizing gold prices may offer some support. Meanwhile, investment demand will continue to hinge on gold price movements and the performance of domestic equity markets.
Ank, CEO of the World Gold Council's Americas region and Global Head of Research, believes that despite recent price volatility and corrections, gold remains a key global asset for allocation. A high-risk environment and low interest rates are expected to provide positive support for upward price movement.
Wang Hongying, President of the China (Hong Kong) Financial Derivatives Investment Research Institute, stated that the recent weakness in gold is primarily due to earlier rising crude oil prices fueling inflation concerns, leading markets to bet on potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. This pushed up U.S. real bond yields and strengthened the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on gold. Additionally, expectations for rate hikes cooled rapidly following the decline in the U.S. core Consumer Price Index for June. Combined with a marginal weakening of safe-haven support from geopolitical conflicts, gold prices faced sustained downward pressure.
Wang Hongying suggests that the current $4000 per ounce level represents a central value range for short-term gold prices. For ordinary investors, a cautious, wait-and-see approach is generally advisable, and it is not recommended to blindly attempt to buy at perceived market bottoms.
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