On May 27, gold prices experienced a decline. The session opened with a drop during the Asian trading hours, hovering above 4500 after the initial fall. Short positions were entered below 4550, and subsequently, prices broke below the 4500 level during the US session, reaching a low near 4481. The short positions were manually closed for profit around 4505. However, gold later recovered a significant portion of its losses, ultimately closing at $4506, forming a bearish candlestick for the day.
As of Wednesday, May 27, US-Iran negotiations have entered a chaotic phase characterized by "fighting while talking," with mixed geopolitical signals. The US military conducted "defensive" airstrikes on missile launch sites and minelaying vessels in southern Iran. This marks the first military action since the ceasefire agreement took effect. Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 26th, strongly condemning the US for "blatantly violating the ceasefire agreement" and stated it would respond, "without hesitation in defending its security." This situation prevents the market from forming a unified expectation.
Therefore, the market currently lacks a consensus. It is crucial to focus not just on rhetoric but on actions—the US airstrikes represent concrete moves, while negotiations remain merely a "possibility." This state of chaos has trapped gold prices in a range-bound oscillation with "clear support and resistance." Additionally, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to intensify, with the probability of a December hike approaching 70%, which exerts downward pressure on gold.
From a technical perspective, gold failed to break and hold above the neckline of the hourly chart's head-and-shoulders bottom pattern at 4580 on multiple attempts earlier in the week, indicating a lack of inherent upward momentum. Yesterday's decline pierced the shoulder support of the pattern at 4500, suggesting the potential failure of the head-and-shoulders bottom formation. In the short term, prices may continue to oscillate and adjust. Intraday resistance can first be observed around the hourly moving average band near 4540, with potential fierce contention in the 4515-4525 area before that. Support is initially watched around yesterday's low of 4480. A decisive break below this level could open the path for a test of the previous lower lows near 4450, or even the 4420-4400 zone.
In summary, short-term "monetary policy tightening expectations" are currently overshadowing "geopolitical safe-haven demand," keeping gold in a weak, range-bound consolidation near the 4500 level. The primary intraday strategy remains range trading or adopting a wait-and-see approach. The 4500 level is the key battleground. Only a sustained break below 4480 would open the door for further corrective moves. If tomorrow's PCE data unexpectedly shows weakness, a rebound could be monitored. The long-term logic of central bank gold purchases remains intact, and the current phase is tentatively viewed as a wide-range consolidation at elevated levels.
Intraday trading suggestions are as follows: Gold: Consider long positions in the 4495-4490 range, with a stop loss at 4480, targeting 4550-4560. If prices break below 4480, exit longs on a rebound and consider short positions, targeting 4430-4410.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Wednesday, May 27: 20:15 US ADP National Employment Report (Weekly Change for the week ending May 9) 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May
Comments